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~=:iI==!~-· -computers -- - II and ~~tion MOLECULAR ELECTRONICS PERT Cybernation : The Silent Conquest MARCH 1962 • Vol. XI - No. 3 GET RESULTS AND RELAXATION ... DIVIDENDS FROM STATIST,leAl'S ~li:: l;;i ~ ~~'~:; ..:" ~ rd ";'OAftfAi'ttp,CESS ING '," "~ I1.~I' .....;.., "!,,.~.J .~ .... f" ... ~ ....;: ~/ -"-'1""'"''1''' EffI . J.• '."•.·• 2,111 ---0--/~ When data-processing problems t··~ ... < ' ',~~ ... ~.; ; I I put the pressure on you, you'll find the "safety valve" you need at ST ATISTICAL. A wealth of experience is always ready to go to work for you here. Behind every assignment is a searching understanding of management problems and solutions ... gained in serving America's top companies since 1933. From this experience comes the consistently-high quality service you would expect from America's oldest and largest independent data-processing and computer service. Sophisticated methods. Responsible personnel. The latest electronic equipment. Coast-to-coast facilities. Advantages like these add up to "know-how" and "show-how" that can not be acquired overnight. n iii TABULATING 01 EJ Established 1933 CORPORATION NATIONAL HEADQUARTERS This experience-in-depth service is available to you day or night. A call to our nearest data-processing and computer center will bring you the results you want ... and relaxation. ,1/ /o~ I 2 104 South Michigan Avenue-Chicago 3, Illinois OFFICES IN PRINCIPAL CITIES - COAST TO COAST THE STATISTICAL MARK OF EXCELLENCE COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for March, 1902 I COM us' nal mGhe ess to Now you can transmit your business data by telephone! You do it with DATA-PHONE service-the dramatic, new Bell System development that lets business machines talk over telephone lines. f, m1' 11'e for :ial !ed mrm lCS, talon ~rs. led nd me mr cal fo Great volumes of data-You can send production figures, payrolls, inventories, sales orders-from punched cards, paper tape or magnetic tape such as shown below. At high speed-up to 2500 words per minute when regular telephone lines are used. When DATA-PHONE service is used with leased private lines, speeds many times this rate can be obtained. Accurately. Data is received in the same punched-card or tape form that it was in originally. Economically. DATA-PHONE transmission goes over regular telephone lines at regular telephone rates. Some firms accumulate a day's data, then send it after hours, when rates are lowest. Let one of our Communications Consultants show you how DATA-PHONE service can put more speed, accuracy, economy and profit into your data handling. Just call your Bell Telephone Business Office and ask for him. m Pky., ws & Park, Div., ~ 9 / 19 / view, 46 / t UniAsChi- , 1962 BELL TELEPHONE SYSTEM COMPUTERS 3,017,( Mas: Arr 3,017,( N. Vorl syst< 3,017,( Flav and AUTOMATION COMPUTERS AND DpiTA PROCESSORS, AND THEIR CONSTRUCTION, APPLICATIONS, AND IMPLICATIONS, INCLUDING AUTOMATION Volume XI Number 3 Established September, 195 1 MARCH, 1962 EDMUND C. BERKELEY Editor PATRICK J. McGOVERN Assistant Editor MOSES M. BERLIN Assista11t Editor NEIL D. MACDONALD Assistant Editor SYDNEY STARR Art Director Some Novel Applications of Computers IB to 9B (inserted between pages 24 and 25) CONTRIBUTING EDITORS ANDREW D. BOOTH NED CHAPIN JOHN W. CARR, III ALSTON S. HOUSEHOLDER PETER KUGEL ADVISOR Y COMMITTEE MOR TON M. ASTRA HAN HOWARD T. ENGSTROM GEORGE E. FORSYTHE RICHARD W. HAMMING ALSTON S. HOUSEHOLDER HERBERT F. MITCHELL, JR. SALES AND SERVICE DIRECTOR PATRICK 1. MCGOVERN 81 5 Washington St. Newtonville 60, Mass. DEcatur 2-5453 ADVERTISING REPRESENTATIVES Los A11geles 5 WENTWORTH F. GREEN 439 So. Western Ave.. DUnkirk 7-8135 Sail Francisco 5 A. S. BABCOCK 605 Market St. YUkon 2-3954 Elsewhere PATRICK· J. MCGovERN DEcatur 2-5453 815 Washington St. Newtonville 60, Mass. FRONT COVER . 1, 6 Long-Lived Computer for Space ARTICLES Molecular Electronics-An Introduction, by WESTINGHOUSE ELECTRIC CORP. 10 PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique)A Control Concept using Computers, by JOHN JODKA . 16 Cybernation: The Silent Conquest, by DONALD N. MICHAELS 26 ACROSS THE EDITOR'S DESK (inserted between pages 24 and 25) 10B to 20B READERS' AND EDITOR'S FORUM Call for Papers for WESCON, Los Angeles, Aug. 21-24, 1962 . 6 "Dues" from Automation Machines for Aiding Adjustments of Displaced Workers. 6 Summer Research Training Institute in Heuristic Programming, by PAUL ARMER. 7 Association for Computing Machinery National Conference, 1962---Call for Papers 7 Programmed Assistance COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION is published monthly at 315 Washington St., Newtonville 60, Mass., by Berkeley Enterprises, Inc. Printed in U.S.A. SUBSCRIPTION RATES: United States, $15.00 for 1 year, $29.00 for 2 years, including the June Directory issue; Canada, add 50c a year for postage; foreign, add $1.50 a year for postage. Address all Editorial and Subscription Mail to Berkeley Enterprises, Inc., 815 Washington St., Newtonville 60, Mass. ENTERED AS SECOND CLASS MATTER at the Post Office at Boston, Mass. POSTMASTER: Please send all Forms 3579 to Berkeley Enterprises, Inc., 815 Washington St., Newtonville 60, Mass. Copyright, 1962, by Berkeley Enterprises, Inc. CHANGE of ADDRESS: If your address changes, please send us both your new address and your old address (as it appears on the magazine address imprint), and allow three weeks for the change to be made. 4 3,017,( Eng Ont N. ' elec 3,017,( Scln dig, mul 3,017,( Cali / A 3,017,( N. alle: 3,017, Va. A a 3,017, Eng An chir 3,017, Cali Day cuit 3,017, Cal Inc. sign 3,017,1 Eve kin, Yor stacl pro l 3,017,1 D. 'Va par, 3,017,1 Squ A r 3,017,1 neti 3,017,1 fiele sear for 20 3,018,1 fieh dar; REFERENCE INFORMATION Books and Other Publications, by MOSES M. BERLIN 21 Who's Who in the Computer Field (Supplement) 42 New Patents, by RAYMOND R. SKOLNICK. 44 INDEX OF NOTICES Advertising Index 46 Computer Directory and Buyers' Guide. Glossary of Computer Terms 23 23 Manuscripts 18 . LB. gral essil ~. 7 Calendar of Coming Ever.ts I~ 3,018,1 Con Cor lath 3,018,( N. put: 3,018,( pan chir inte ;~,018,( Reference and Survey Information. 23 Who's Who Entry Form 42 Tm· liarr Tell / A 1962 COM . COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for March, Technical Information Series 113 160·A INTERRUPT ~\ tllwn, l)" a Juter Bcar and :1n. I Y. / GREEN LIGHTS INDICATE INTERRUPT STATUS. NEW CONTROL DATA 160·A COMPUTER ~neLic Eind:rican I A 19ton, New mory and Ancprocicott, 'J. Y. Hill, Nell ~ner- Old Y. I lisan, New ., Il". 24 Y. sys- NclV Lab., Idant [>rovInc., corc Desk-Size Computer with Large Computer Capabilities In evaluating desk-size computers, the flexibility and capability of the computer to perform interrupt functions is of great importance. Similar to the interrupt feature employed in many advanced, large-scale computers, the 160-A Program Interrupt allows the normal program sequence to be Interrupted by various external conditions . . . such as a peripheral equipment completing its function, operator action, and end-of-buffer sequence. Few desk-size computers on the market today have this capability. The 160-A has four interrupt lines: two internal and two external. When an interrupt signal occurs on one of these lines, the computer executes a special RETURN JUMP instruction to one of four fixed memory locations, depending upon the line generating the interrupt. 160-A executes a special fixed memory location. RETURN JUMP instruction to a Interrupt signals are recognized in a priority sequence, the lower-numbered lines being recognized first. Thus, where an interrupt occurs simultaneously on Lines 10 and 20, Line 10 will be recognized first. Once an interrupt signal is placed on a line, it remains until recognized or until a console MASTER CLEAR instruction is executed. A desk-size computer, the Control Data 160-A has the speed, capability, and flexibility of many large-scale computers. For more detailed information about the 160-A Program Interrupt and other standard features, write for Publication #B12-61. For example, the operator can activate Interrupt Line 10 by momentarily depressing any combination of a Selective Stop Switch and a Selective Jump Switch, which are located on the 160-A console display panel. Interrupt Line 20 is activated each time a buffer operation is completed. Finally, Interrupt Lines 30 and 40 are external lines and may be activated by any peripheral device designed to provide an interrupt signal. In all cases where an interrupt occurs, the I 'atervtan, gula· I inrec,Eng. abunfarWarAn >any, J. I {ark, vari- Birvcnjm., Ising bers. 1962 CONTROL DATA COMPUTER DIVISION CORPORATION 501 PARK AVENUE. MINNEAPOLIS 15. MINNESOTA COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for March, 1962 5 Readers' and Editor's Forum Muller Gene ville, lumt Newmc: FRONT COVER: LONG·LIVED COMPUTER FOR SPACE The front cover shows a prototype, ferrite-core, really a revived kind of miniaturized computer under development, which will run for years in outer space without maintenance. The prototype shown is in operation at the research laboratories of Lockheed Missiles & Space Company, Sunnyvale, Calif. It uses ordinary copper wire and rugged, ceramic-like ferrite cores in place of transistors. The design promises to have far-reaching implications for spacecraft and electronics generally. Only the set of five cards containing multi-aperture ferrite cores (to which tweezers are pointing) are computer elements; the base to which the cards are attached is lab equipment. A typical computer would have about 30 times as much circuitry as shown here; it could perform the same computations as a standard computer. The double row of switches at the lower left serves as controls for the demonstration model. The magnetic core computer is from 10 to 100 times more reliable than computers using transistors. In space vehicles computers perform most of the guidance, data collection, data processing, and data transmission. Both the copper wire and the ferrites are extremely tough. Virtually the only place where failure can occur is where the wires of one circuit are joined to those of another. But magnetic-core computers process information about 200 time:: more slowly than transistorized computers-but still at the ra te of 5000 pulses per second. CALL FOR PAPERS FOR WESCON~ LOS ANGELES~ AUGUST 21.24~ 1962 Papers to be contributed to the 1962 Western Electronic Show and Convention in Los Angeles, August 21-24, 1962, should be submitted in the following way: Abstracts of 100 to 200 words, and summaries of 500 words, should be sent before April 15, to Dr. David Langmuir, c/o Wescon, 1435 So. La Cienaga Blvd., Los Angeles 35, Calif. "DUES" FROM AUTOMATION MACHINES FOR AIDING ADJUSTMENTS OF DISPLACED WORI(ERS One manufacturer of automation equipment announced in February that its automation machines will pay "dues" to be used to develop ways to ease automation's impact on displaced workers. John 1. Snyder, Jr., President and Chairman of U. S. Industries, Inc., said that the dues will be calculated upon the sale or lease price for each automated USI machine. These payments will continue monthly for one year from the date of sale or lease. He estimated that the dues will range in annual amounts from $25 to $1,000 per machine. "Such dues are to be paid to a labor-management foundation now being created, which will be charged with the specific responsibility of administering the funds thus collected for the benefit of employees affected by automation advances,"he said. "The rapid growth of automation and the problems created by this growth are matters of increasingly serious concern to government as well as to labor and management. It is our belief that those companies actively engaged in the production of automation equipment must also hasten to shoulder their proper share of the clear responsibilities imposed on us all by our technological achievements in this field. Automation is inevitable and its use is rapidly increasing. Positive, affirmative steps by the makers of machines must be taken now to preserve human values in today's changing times." (j U. S. Industries consists of 15 divisions engaged in the manufacture of products for use in metal fabricating, transmission of oil, water and gas, petroleum production, aircraft and missiles, the dairy industry, and other fields. The USI Autotmation Division, Silver Spring, Md., produces a machine called TransfeRobot 200, a lowcost automation device used mainly in assembly line operations. The company's Production Machine Division in Chicago also produces automated press lines and other large automated production machines. Mr. Snyder said that the labor-management foundation chosen to administer the funds resulting from its new policy is now being established under the joint sponsorship of USI and the International Association of Machinists. It will take the form of a non-profit foundation created for the sole purpose of establishing and administering a program that will effectively aid in the transitional adjustments of workers affected by automation. Studies for methods of effective retraining are expected to receive priority in the foundation's planning. USI and the International Association of Machinists have worked closely together in the past as joint sponsors of the Foundation on Employee Health, Medical Care and Welfare, Inc., which was established in 1956 to aid and assist companies and unions in the health and welfare field. COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for March, 1962 BRA -, '5 patel Oxford Com Corp Hou: to tl Sout mere Paden, pan) ABP Wesl Patton sear< 'City Harl data Payne, Carr USl'i Payne, Airc / A '56, Peters( Dep vent trie, BEe Petrie Prel / '2 prgr Rice, Casl Prol Yor: Bral Yorl anal Salsbu Carl End ~Iic Simm( DR vivc P / prgl Simps, Con pita Arb '31, res Siquel lins ter, Bea eval sup Street som US! '37, Van'" lin St, life in tiar Walkl ren, DE Yates, An; ton COM [E )N, will ltive the date 25, :omving may per) free the heir 'ho's editries 'ho's The Bendix G-20 computing system-an integrated, advance-design hardware-software package-is profit engineered to bring you maximum results per dollar invested.• Designed concurrently, G-20 hardware and software blend into a system which allows you to simultaneously process engineering and business programs. Under executive program control, program priorities are automatically established. Automatic too is memory allocation and the assignment of high-speed communications channels and input-output devices. This means that your G-20 always represents the maximum-efficiency operational configuration for the jobs at hand ... without reprogramming or manual intervention. • The G-20 was designed for maximum uptime and ease of operation, too. Seeing that you take full advantage of G-20 speed and power is a large staff of automatic programming specialists and a nationwide team of application experts. Complete physical system support-from pre-installation planning through installation and continuing maintenance-is provided by Bendix Computer service specialists.• It all adds up to maximum results per dollar invested. Investigate the proven, installed G-20 at once ... see how this profit engineered system can help you effectively reduce your data processing costs. Call your nearest Bendix Computer office or write: Bendix Computer Division, 5630 Arbor Vitae Street, Los Angeles 45, California. Dept. D-38. Bendix Computer Division T~ncf¥ CORPORATION if I? .... dis- this Tho's luto.feet, ~isure, ~ncoe, CIA. York it the Lysis," ·96. 1962 Corp., Reaction Motors Div COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for March, 1962 7 The committee expects to review an anticipated 400 contributed papers in preparing the final program. SUMMER RESEARCH TRAINING INSTITUTE IN HEURISTIC PROGRAMMING Paul Armer Head, Computer Sciences Dept. The Rand Corporation Santa Monica, Calif. Applications are invited from academic personnel for participation in a Research Training Institute on Heuristic Programming, to be held at The RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Ca~ifornia, June .18July 27, 1962. The Institute wIll cover technIques in the programming of digital computers to solve complex problems using some of the methods observed in human problem-solving. Participants will be expected to hold doctoral degrees although exceptionally qualified advanced candidates for the doctorate will be considered. Experience in computer programming will be a prerequisite. Stipends and travel allowance will be offered. Deadline for applications is 1\I1arch 30, 1962. For further information write to Dr. Bert F. Green, Jr., Computer Sciences Department, The RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, California. ASSOCIATION FOR COMPUTING MACHINERY NATIONAL CONFERENCE 1962CALL FOR PAPERS The 1962 ACM National Conference will be held September 4-7 at the Hotel Syracuse and the War J\{emorial Auditorium in Syracuse, New York. The conference will include contributed papers on the areas and suggested topics detailed below: 1. Scientific Information Processing: Numerical Analysis and 1\I1athematical Applications; Applications in the Physical Sciences; Engineering Analysis, Simulation and Synthesis. 2. Aut 0 mat i c Programming and Computer Languages: Compilers and Assemblers; Monitor Systems; ALGOL, COBOL, etc. 3. Business Information Processing: Business and Management Control Systems; Automated Clerical Systems; Operations Research and lV1anagement Simulation. 4. Information Retrieval: Me m 0 r y Devices; Automatic Abstracting; Indexing Methods. 5. Language Translation: Natural Languages (English, French, Russian, etc.); Artificial Languages. G. Education: Use of Computers in Education; Education of Computer Personnel. 7. Real-Time Information Processing: Programming Real-Time Computers; Simulation of Real-Time Processes. 8. Social Aspects and Philosophies: Responsibilities of Computer Personnel; Social Problems of Today; Predictions for the Future. Papers representing original contributions in these and related fields are invited. For any such paper, 8 there should be sent, on or before 1\I1ay 1, 1962, to Technical Program Co-chairman, R. W. Beckwith, 7614 Hunt Lane, Fayetteville, N. Y., the following (in quadruplicate): an 800 to 1000 word illustrated summary (about 4 pages); and a 35-word abstract. Both the summary and abstract should highlight the nature of the contribution, its significance in the art, and theoretical and experimental results. Accompanied by key drawings or photos, or both, the manuscripts should be submitted on single-side, black on white, double-spaced typewritten form, with the author's name, affiliation, address, and telephone contact on the first page, and author's name and abbreviated paper title on subsequent pages. On papers with multiple authorship, the name of the speaker who will deliver the paper should also be noted. The 35-word abstract will be published in an advance program. An innovation at ACM 62 will be a specially-prepared letterpress edition of a Digest of Technical Papers. To be distributed at the meeting, the book, with about 180 pages, will include illustrated condensations of all papers. The program will also include a number of invited papers, round-table discussions, and "Halls of Discussion." Suggestions for topics for the discussions will be welcome. General chairman of the conference is R. S. Jones, Sylvania Electric Products, Inc., Camillus, N. Y. PROGRAMMED ASSISTANCE busil ling, of n; patH agerr In t1 the can 1 prob popu most cybel will nucl( realn the i even willI the 1 they, putel Tl peop cybel with avefart lIed cial be lese lrn. to ake lble deh mel leh, ITith Ittilive HOW PRECISE IS EP COMPUTE DIOTAPE Extra precise. An unscientific term but an accurate one. We know EPComputer Audiotape is extra precise (which is what EP stands for) because every step in its production is directed toward that end. From raw material to sealed container, this computertape is measured, checked, controlled, inspected, tested. Automatic Certifiers record and play back every inch of every reet and if just one test pulse out of 40 million doesn't reproduce properly out goes the entire reel. On high density tapes, it-takes 112 million perfect pulses to qualify. Is it unreasonable to call this extra precision? Try EP Computer Audiotape~ ·AUDIO DEVICES INC., 444 MA /' too, :ive, lasslere ar- 01 l this lme of mre per'Ices llblc 5 of ives. the i few will vely to ~ few as hird ~ :ond will sure ,robeted rove Jout II unplay with and It is Lting 1 an rous e by ively e to 1962 N AVENtJE, NEW YOQK 22, NEW YORK » COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for March, 1962 block. The block's capacitance, as well as the resistance across it, varies with the voltage applied across the block thus changing its frequency response, or tuning it.' Because the resistance and capacitance are distributed throughout the block-not lumped at specific locations in it-the performance of the .notch filter functional block cannot be exactly duplIcated in a circuit constructed from ordinary components. Thus, in this sense, it performs a new electronic function, not attainable heretofore with conventional circuitry. Resistive material, for r' c Fig. 5. Idealized structure of notch filter in solid materials diagram, and three external leads, .A, B, C,. are attached to two of these films. The entIre block IS about one-fourth of an inch long, one-eighth of an inch wide and five-thousandths of an inch thick. Pr~pared from conventional compon~nts, t?e notch filter would consist of a network of senes resIstors (r) and shunt capacitors (c) connected to a resistor (r), as shown in Figure 4. An idealized form ~f .solI~ block structure with corresponding characterIstIcs IS shown in Figure 5. It consists of a four-layer sandwich. Between terminals A and B, the top layer of high-resistance material co.rresponds .to t?e s<:ries resistors, r, between the equIvalent pomts In FIgure 4. The dielectric layer forms the shunt capacitors, c, which, by means of the layer of good-conductin~ ~a lerial, are connected directly to a bottom resIstIve layer that is a "built-in" version of r' in Figure 4. An idealized version of the notch filter as constructed from a block of semiconductor material is shown in Figure 6. Here, the p-type layer has high resistance, and capacitance is obtained from the p-n JUIlction by applying a bias voltage, E, in the :evers~ direction. Again the bottom layer replaces resIstor r in Figure 4. Translated into its practical form as a functional electronic block, the idealized notch filter of Figure 6 assumes the form shown in Figure 3. The main difference is the addition of the thin metallic areas, which make connection to the capacitive region of the A B p-type Resistive material _E Tc Fig. 6. Idealized structure of notch filter in semiconductor material Future of Molecular Electronics The technology of molecular electronics has progressed to the point that functio~al electronic ~locks of several different types are bemg made avaIlable commercially for experiment and evaluation. At present, their cost is high, but there seems to be ~o reason why they cannot ultimately ?e prod~ce~ m large quantity at less cost than the equIvalent CIrCUItry. Success in molecular electronics rests heavily upon a basic understanding of the innate proper,ties of materials and, because of this, upon the ability to modify and exploit them in useful form. ~herefore; progress in this new approach to elec:rolllc systems will be largely conditioned by progress In two areasmaterials and processing techniques. A major step toward the more perfect, more uniform semiconductor materials required in molecular systems was recently achieved by scientists at the West· inghouse Research Laboratories with t.he develo~~ent of the "dendritic growth" of germanIUm and SIlIcon crystals. In contrast to conventional techniqu~s, tl~e new process grows these semiconductor matenals In the form of long, thin, optically fiat, perfectly surfaced strips which need no intermediate processing t? make them suitable for finished semiconductor deVIces. In later experiments, "multi-zone" dendrites with "builtin" p and n regions have been grown. and. have been made into simple semiconductor deVIces SImply through the attachment of the proper leads. Improvements in the dendritic growth process can be expected to have broad implications for molecular electronics and for conventional semiconductor device fabrication as well. A second materials development of consequence to molecular electronics is the "epitaxial growth" by vapor deposition of layers of silico~ upon a sili.con substrate. This technique will provIde the multIple junctions required by the more complicated types of functional blocks. Progress is being reported, too, in the de~elo?men t of new processing techniques for the fabncatIOn of functional blocks. Electron beam cutting and welding, photoetching, vapor deposition and the like a~e processes already in use. A major research eff?rt IS under way to perfect existing materials and techlllq~es, discover new ones, and develop a technology wIuch will provide, with reasonable economy, reproducible functional blocks of high performance. As such materials and techniques become available, molecular electronics will fulfill the promise it now demonstrates as a major advance in the electronics art. COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for March, 1962 eld( lem we: hO\l in t Wh to t or, tior: bin; thel necc Con abo tion shif N of ( pow cial or F be ~ fron face wen so 0 G will try, only thos gove ous beca ploy nom any econ our and tion. are: tion. 01 be t< addi then syste undt: comI if th And, enfol It is matil hour Arne recog necte work Tv leisUl COM] they tuaTroll l aship, l by " is pareral they here IBM extends the range of programming ® Are you interested in exploring the capabilities of the cornputer? cts.) inly of a may )uld the en- hich n, is lost wed at a Reners [ow- tua- the not ledi)uld ring 'erne b.i te:ling the 'eral igraiolueco- :heir " of Je a curthe the ople (al- o Duld had :our,end- king y re; the and y to this tired 1962 I Some of the most important programming developments are taking place now at IBM. The broad scope of work underway at IBM offers important advantages to members of our professional programming staff. They have the opportunity to work on projects taken from the broad range of programming. They are face to face with the frontiers of applied, scientific and administrative programming. For example, what advanced programming techniques interest you the most: multiprogramming systems ... compilers ... problem-oriented languages and processors? Programmers at IBM are exploring these techniques and many more. Here are some other areas you might work in if you were a programmer at IBM: theory of computing ... artificial intelligence ... simulation systems ... scheduling methodology ... communications control systems ... space systems ... and the design of total computer systems. At IBM, you would find yourself in the kind of atmosphere that encourages accomplishment. You would help to design new hardware systems. You would work side by side with men of eminent professional stature: scientists, engineers and mathclnaticians who pioneer in the COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for March, 1962 research and development that make new computing systems possible. What's more, you would be able to give your projects the time they deserve. Time for thinking. Time for achievement. The scope of programming at IBM stimulates professional growth. It offers possibilities which merit serious consideration whether you are a master of the skills of programilling or a relative newcomer to the field. Salaries and benefits at IBM are excellent. If you have experience in scientific or commercial programming, we would like to acquaint you with the wide range of responsible positions on our programming staff. Programming facilities are located in San Jose, Calif.; Washington, D. C., area; Lexington, Kentucky; Rochester, Minnesota; Omaha, Nebraska; and New York, Endicott, Kingston, Owego, Poughkeepsie and Yorktown Heights, New York. IBM is an Equal Opportunity Employer., . For further details, please. write, outlining your background and interests, to: lVianager of Professional Employment, IBI\I Corporation, Dept. 539P, 590 l\;Iadison Ave., New York 22, N.Y. 15 PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique) -A CONTROL CONCEPT USING COMPUTERS John Jodka Cost Accounting Supervisor General Dynamics Convair San Diego, Calif. The concept presented here is no substitute for judgment, and indeed the concept relies heavily on it, but it is a control "breakthrough" which should revolutionize controllership methods. Although this technique has been pioneered in the defense industry, the same principle can be adopted as a tool of financial management in any industry. As to the companies in the aerospace industry, they must adjust to this new type of management control or find themselves wanting when defense contracts are awarded. This new concept, Program Evaluation and Review Technique, is called PERT by the Navy Special Project Office. The same technique is called PEP by the Air Force, standing for Program Evaluation Procedure. The evaluation method to check actual progress to schedule was begun by the Navy Special Project Office in December 1959, using consultants from the firm of Booz, Allen and Hamilton in the planning phase. The method was so successful that, as is apparent from the instructions to bidders on major government contracts, the PERT/PEP method will be a requirement for most major defense contracts let in the future. It is also virtually certain that the prime contractors will be forced to demand PERT type techniques down to all tiers of the supply line because the very workability of the system depends on the interrelationships of all parts of the whole, especially in regard to producing the first end article of a system or program. Therefore, anyone doing business wi th the Armed Services or with any prime contractor who does such business is well advised to get acquainted wi th the method. How Does PERT Work? The common denominator of time is used for all planning, measurements of progress to schedule, evaluating changes to schedule and forecasting future progress. The interrelationships of each identifiable ('vent and the activities required to reach that point, ale planned, programmed and iteratively reported on. For a large project, this continuous and frequent reporting', to be timely, usually requires the clerical help that a data computer of some kind can provide. The reports merely show trouble spots or potential trouble spots. The system is the epitome of the "management by exception" theory because it highlights t he critical path to the end objective. However, be16 't' cause it also reports repetitively and frequently on all activities, there is little chance of a potential problem spot being overlooked. Before proceeding further, it might be well to define a few words and phrases which have special meanings when used in connection with the subject under discussion. An event is a specific, recognizable point in time when there is an occurrence where accomplishment is definite. An activity is the work that must be accomplished to get from one event to another. The critical path is the one which from the beginning of the project to the end objective takes the longest period of time. A network is a chart which portrays in tinker toy fashion all the events and the activities which must be accomplished to reach the end objective and which reflects all the ramifications and interrelationships of the constraints. Slack is the amount of time which an activity may have over and above the minimum time required to accomplish the activity which is permissible and still meets schedule; this slack is usually termed positive slack, because it is possible to have negative slack representing the lack of time according to latest planning to meet a contractually fixed schedule date. Constructing Control Charts and "Networks" The typical schedule control chart is a bar chart or a Gantt chart as shown in Exhibit 1. Naturally there can be many sub-charts to portray more specific milestones within each of these general areas with a great variety of symbols designating various milestones. However, the basic flaw of these charts is that they fail to show the interplay and effect of one activity on the other activities. BAR CHART SCHEDULE FORMAT Design Engineering L L Tool Engineering T Tool Manufacture T Delivery Date lIIanufactured Product Dates or Week Ending Dales \l Start Date ~ Ending Date Exhibit I COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for March, 1962 fare, oneaftel com has tion: help If turn man faun excll boys and clusi cent and emp cour forc( resp( plao cent~ In sc vatic will can seeki If comt tiom tribl Tl grou the j tion and menl view adul hosti disci A appr that an el ton chine stiml The tion servi, must will Nc stay easy alrea that work the, them bec01 teach to th I COM] ~~~~~~--~- kely [ling that 11 as the it is A SIMPLE NETWORK :leo :hese nore eces,cessonal )nce Iddiand high ~e of ts to ~ong tions lead rs to elopiocre that IS an ts in E the that work Le to LIs of .lions al of I war L-butnited ix ties til in 5)000 ~d to and roved kness peo'ough This lnual t ten 'Jungyear) ically lploy'Oporlways Exhibit 2 A network portrays the interdependence of all preceding activities and succeeding events as shown in Exhibit 2. Each activity is stated in a common unit of time, be it hours, days or weeks, and each event is one that is unmistakable and recognizable. Obviously, for example, the accomplishment of Event C is a constraint on beginning Activity 4, and any delay in reaching Event C will delay Event D and the end objective Event E. This kind of analysis can be made [or a simple project without the use of a computer. Hence, it becomes feasible to require all tiers of suppliers to use PERT methods. Noted above each activity is the time factor, shown as t5 for Activity 1, for example, and representative of 5 time units. The critical path then becomes that path which requires the greatest number of time units. In Exhibit 2 it goes from A to B to C to E for an expenditure of 16 time units. Testing any other path will prove that no other way takes as many time units. If the start date is such that the 15 time units results in an end objective date beyond the contractually scheduled date, then the path is said to have "negative slack." If it exactly hits the scheduled date, it has "zero" slack. All other paths have "positive slack," because more than the allowed time can elapse in their accomplishment, without jeopardy to the end objective. In order that a network be meaningful, the input must be accurate and valid. Each activity must be planned by the personnel in the organization most experienced in the accomplishment of that type of activity and who can best estimate the time and manpower requirements for accomplishment based on a vaila ble resources. Use of the Technique If, in the initial construction, there is negative slack, the critical path is determined and added manpower or resources allotted where feasible to reduce the time span, so that the end date will be met. Ob- Prior Activity description Subsequent 0001 OOO() 0167 0198 vVel1962 Organization to Support the Concept The writer's company has studied the PERT concept and planned the organizational and procedural steps needed to Illake the system work on any newly initiated project. Exhibit 3 is a graphic presentation of slIch an organization for a major project. Parts of the organization, as required, would be set up for any minor project. In all cases, there would be a project leader or project manager who would be primarily responsible [or the success of the project and who would report directly to the company manager. Exhibit 3 reads from left to right, beginning with the basic definition of work to be done and ending with the top man, the project leader in control. Work is defined at a level of detail necessary for individual job assignments and supervisory work control. Detail schedules are developed on work sheets from the detail work plans, with identification crossindexed to the control documents. Worksheet data are processed through a computer to establish the schedule and make up the "network" against which actual work accomplishment will be reported. Work accomplishments are monitored in established recording centers where reports of actual time spent are introduced into the detail reporting system. Predictions of schedule problem areas are generated at the first-line supervisory level and processed through a computer to update the detail reports. Date Event ~esent 1, viously, personnel assigned to "positive slack" areas can be temporarily assigned to the critical area. Changes in plan are always difficult to handle in evaluating the effect on specific activities and then relating that to the whole schedule. The PERT technique shows where "the shoe pinches," and the successful result depends on normal good management methods. These changes in plan are sometimes described "PERTurbations," an apt label in many ways. The table below depicts a typical PERT report showing event identifications prior and subsequent to the activity described, the department responsible to carry Ollt the activity, the expected completion date, the scheduled completion date and an indication of the amount of slack time. One method of getting a more probable expected date is the use of three time estimates for each activity indicating: (a) optimistic estimate, (b) most likely time and (c) pessimistic estimate. By using probability factors and making inputs for standard deviations expected, it is possible to develop an expected time and a Illeasure of its potential variability. Although sllch techniques are rather advanced and not in general lise, they have been required on some contracts. TABLE 10,000 Ihead pout could . such Iffert, ------------------ COMPUTERS and Issued procedural design charts Prepare mockup model i\~JTOMATION for March. 1!)()2 Department responsible Expected Scheduled Engineering 11/I/GI 10/29/61 12/2·1/() I 12/22/Gl Factory Slack -2 17 ORGANIZATION TO REPORT AND CONTROL UNDER THE ~ CONCEPT servil in cy It appli persc will 1 it. 1 sorts For t: "7 ALL DEPTS. LINE SUPERVISION DETAIL WORK PLANS I.§!LBCONTRACT PLAN ~ANT FACILITIES ~TERIAL PLAN l!!2.B MAN-TIME CHARTS ACCOMPLISHMENTS PROJECT LEADER DESIGN TRADEOFFS lro dis ALL DEPTS. WORK DONE REPORTING CENTERS SlZI tio rej INTER-DEPT. CONTROL SCHEDULE WORK ESTABLISHMENT COORDINATORS SHEETS UPDATED ~ NETWORK Exhibit 3 Schedule progress is monitored by control coordinators. They are directly responsible to the project leader and not to the supervision of the work areas over which they exercise control, so that the project leader has an eyewitness who is familiar with the physical work area and who can advise him when steps must be taken to take corrective action or to realign plans and schedules to effect changes rapidly with the least detriment to the end schedule. The Need for Cost Reporting It is apparent from the discussion above that the control is on scheduled tasks with time as the common control factor. ''''hile it is very true that time is money and that if a project is under good physical control then dollar control can hardly be inadequate, it is equally true that both contractors and customers, in the final analysis, will settle in payment for services rendered in terms of dollars. Therefore, the accounting profession must devise new methods of recording costs and keeping track of dollars that are compatible with the PERT schedule control concepts. It is obvious that if the customer is geared to thinking in terms of a physical schedule, he will also be desirous of attaching dollar costs to the same physical event. Any attempt to identify common costs, applicable to the entire program,. to a specific physical occurrence is undoubtedly difficult. MANUSCRIPTS WE ARE interested in articles, papers, reference information, and discussion relating to computers and automation. To be considered for any particular issue, the manuscri pt should be in our hands by the first of the preceding month. ARIICU:S: \Ve desire to that are factual, useful, alld illteresting to many ellgaged in one part or field of computers and IH publish articles understandable, kinds of people another of the automation. In Each separate item has its own peculiar quantitycost relationship. To reHect such a relationship for each of the activities in a PERT network and to keep them updated for changes in the objectives of a program by way of acceleration, quantity change, method change, etc., is obviously a tremendous task and one for which there are no "generally accepted practices." It is apparent that there is a point beyond which the addition of extra resources (money) will not greatly affect quantity. This is the sort of thing a project leader will expect the accountant to tell him, so that if a schedule slippage is preferable to an exorbitant outlay of money, the customer can be so notified. The Controller's Role ''''hether or not accountants solve the problem of relating costs to PERT schedule control, it is still of utmost importance that they be familiar with these techniques. The controller and his organization will have to take a big part in any control technique which the Government requires of industry, and it is evident that the PERT method will definitely be a requirement when dealing with the Defense Department. (Reprinted with permission from N.A.A. BULLETIN, vol. 43, no. 5, January 1962, published by the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF ACCOUNTANTS, New York, N. Y.) print news, brief discussions, arguments, announcements, letters, etc., anything, in fact, if it is likely to be of substantial in(erest to computer people. We look particularly for articles that explore ideas in the field of computers and automation, and their applications and implications. An article may certainly be controversial if the subject is discussed reasonably. Ordinarily, the length should be 1000 to 3000 words. A suggestion for an article should be submitted to us before too much work is done. PAYMENTS: In many cases, we make small token payments for articles, if the author wishes to be paid. The rate is ordinarily Y2¢ a word, the maximum is $15, and both depend on length in words, whether printed before, etc. AND DISCUSSION: 'Ve It "real' indee Thus own. to be comp the 1 With Slve , pecia matic items eithel or sa. an ev is ob, as reI paid j Th by b( tunit) the S) ance wouIe for se MIDDL relati1 emplc " low '(1) bo'U war war nou this audience are many people who have expert knowledge of some part of the field, but who are laymen in other parts of it. NEWS Pel the S( mal spel gan agel mal by ~ den ((2) org( All suggestions, manuscripts, and inquiries about editorial material should be addressed to: The Editor, COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION, 815 Washington Street, Newtonville 60, Mass. will vati COMPUTERS (lnd AUTOMATION for March, 1962 COMPl desire to the) 1S In 10 In rvice nt of r ex; voI) per xlucte to 'abriE the 19 it. ainly e docom!d by iring gn is ents: :tioneh as unit. nt is uters utine 5hoot lance " but is reo lome· 830.00 PAID CURlllit.T 28,645 12,345.25 8,450 1,500.00 AVERAGE IlALMJCE 964.10 AVERAGE BALAlJCE PAID CUrtRENT !rvice mode ~cked (per~Iimi ~ssing llers). s not 11 not lOney -there ~ way r pere, of than comworkheap? 'ough II try, e the more r jobs aving laney. ining, ~lp to izing. )t the onnel 1, 1962 ANSWERS ... with CRAM and Remote Inquiry provided by the NCR 315 Computer System The NCR 315 CRAM (Card Random Access Memory) Computer System is more than just another back-office electronic accounting machine . .. it is a vital electronic tool which contributes to a higher-quality of management and personnel effectiveness. For example: in a bank, Inquiry Units placed in the various departments enable authorized personnel to interrogate the computer files at will ... to promptly answer requests for balances ... to quickly obtain valuable credit information ... to obtain current, up-to-the-minute reports on investments, trusts, loans, and other essential data. In industry, Inquiry Units can be located at dozens of remote locations, en- abling people to communicate with the computer files ... even from hundreds of miles away. With the NCR 315 you will be able to keep a "current-finger" on the pulse of your business ... to get immediate answers to questions about inventories, production, sales ... and a host of other timely facts people must have to effectively manage ... and to act while the "iron is hot." The NCR 315 CRAM System provides many exclusive advantages for Remote Inquiry, Data Processing, On-Line Accounting, Operations Research, Engineering and Scientific i\pplicati()n~. For more information, call your Ilpari>y NCR representative or write to Data Processing Systems and Sales, Dayton 9, Ohio. NCR PROVIDES TOTAL SYSTEMS-FROM ORIGINAL ENTRY TO FINAL REPORTthrough Accounting Machines, Cash Registers or Adding Machines, and Data Processing The National Cash Register Company-l039 Offices in 121 Countries-78 Years of Helping Business Save Money INlclRI Ql) CO~IPUTERS alld AUTOMATION for March, 1962 ]9 CALENDAR OF COMING EVENTS Mar. 8-10, 1962: 10th Annual Scientific Meeting of the Houston Neurological Society, Symposium on Information Storage and Neural Control, Texas Medical Center, Houston, Tex.; contact William S. Fields, M.D., Symposium Chairman, Houston Neurological Society, 1200 M. D. Anderson Blvd., Houston 25, Tex. Mar. 13-15, 1962: Symposium on Application of Statistics and Computer to Fuels and Lubricants Research Programs (Unclassified), Granada Hotel, San Antonio, Tex.; contact Roy Quillian, Southwest Research Inst., Box 2296, San Antonio 6, Tex. Mar. 22-23, 1962: Third Meeting of Honeywell 800 Users' Association, Biltmore Hotel, Los Angeles, Calif.; contact Bert L. Neff, Metropolitan Life Insurance Co., 1 Madison Ave., New York 10, N. Y. Mar. 24, 1962: 6th Annual Symposium on Recent Advances in Computer Technology, Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio; contact R. K. Kissinger, Publicity Chairman, c/o Nationwide Insurance Companies, 246 No. High St., Columbus, Ohio Mar. 26-29, 1962: IRE International Convention, Coliseum & Waldorf-Astoria Hotel, New York, N. Y.; contact E. K. Gannett, IRE Headquarters, 1 E. 79 St., New York 21, N. Y. April 2-5, 1962: Annual Meeting of POOL (LGP-30, RPC-4000, and RPC-9000 Electronic Computer Users Group), Penn-Sheraton Hotel, Philadelphia, Pa.; contact Dr. Henry J. Bowlden, Union Carbide Corp., P. o. Box 6116, Cleveland 1, Ohio April 4-6, 1962: Univac Users Association and Univac Scientific Exchange Organization, Leamington Hotel, Minneapolis, Minn.; contact David D. Johnson, Sec'y, Univac Users Association, Ethyl Corp., P. o. Box 341, Baton Rouge, La. April 9-11, 1962: Meeting of the 304 Association (Users of NCR 304 Data Processor), Minute Maid Co., Orlando, Florida; contact L. J. Rushbrook, The 304 Association, National Cash Register Co., Main & K Streets, Dayton 9, Ohio. April 9-13, 1962: Business Equipment Exposition, McCormick Place, Chicago, Ill.; contact G. H. Gutekunst, Jr., Mgr., Press Information, Business Equipment Manufacturers Exhibits, Inc., 235 E. 42 St., New York 17, N. Y. April 11-13, 1962: SWIRECO (S. W. IRE Conference and Electronics Show), Rice Hotel, Houston, Tex.; contact Prof. Martin Graham, Rice Univ. Computer Project, Houston 1, Tex. April 16-18, 1962: Symposium in Applied Mathematics on "Interactions Between Mathematical Research and High-Speed Computing," at American Mathematical Society an~ Association for Computing Machinery Symposium, Atlantic City, N. J.; contact Mrs. Robert DrewBear, Head Special Projects Dept., American Mathematical Society, 190 Hope St., Providence 8, R. 1. April 18-20, 1962: Conference on Information Retrieval in Action, Cleveland, Ohio; contact Center for Documentation and Communication Research Conference, Western Reserve Univ., 10831 Magnolia Dr., Cleveland 6, Ohio April 24-26, 1962: 12th Annual International Polytechnic Symposium, devoted to "The Mathelr.atical Theory of Automata," United Engineering Center, 345 E. 47 St., New York, N. Y.; contact Symposium Committee, Polytechnic Inst. of Brooklyn, 55 Johnson St., Brooklyn 1, N. Y. 20 April 25-27, 1962 : National Microfilm Association Convention, Mayflower Hotel, Washington, D. C.; contact Vernon D. Tate, Exec. Secretary, National Microfilm Association, P. O. Box 386, Annapolis, Md. April 30-June 8, 1962: Seminar in Search Strategy, Graduate School of Library Science, Drexel Institute of Tech., Phila. 4, Pa.; contact Seminar in Search Strategy, Graduate School of Library Science, Drexel Inst. of Tech., Phila. 4, Pa., Att: Mrs. M. H. Davis May 1-3, 1962: Spring Joint Computer Conference, Fairmont Hotel, San Francisco, Calif.; contact Richard 1. Tanaka, Lockheed Missile & Space Div., Dept. 58-51, Palo Alto, Calif. May 7-8, 1962: Fifth Annual Conference of the Association of Records Executives and Administrators, WaldorfAstoria Hotel, New York City; contact Miss Judith Gordon, AREA Conference publicity chairman, Metal & Thermit Corp., Rahway, N. J. May 8-10, 1962: Electronic Components Conference, Marriott Twin Bridges Hotel, Washington, D. C.; contact Henry A. Stone, Bell Tel. Lab., Murray Hill, N. J. May 9-11, 1962: Operations Research Society of America, Tenth Anniversary Meeting, Shoreham Hotel, Washington, D. c.; contact Harold o. Davidson, Operations Research Inc., 8605 Cameron St., Silver Spring, Md. May 14-16, 1962: National Aerospace Electronics Conference, Biltmore Hotel, Dayton, Ohio; contact George A. Langston, 4725 Rean Meadow Dr., Dayton, Ohio May 21-25, 1962: Institute on Electronic Information Display Systems, The American University, Washington, D. C.; contact Dr. Lowell H. Hattery, Director, Center for Technology and Administration, The American University, 1901 F St., N.W., Washington 6, D. C. May 22-24, 1962: Conference on Self-Organizing Systems, Museum of Science and Industry, Chicago, Ill.; contact Mr. George T. Jacobi, COSOS Conference Sec'y, Armour Research Foundation, 10 W. 35 St., Chicago 16, Ill. May 28-June 1, 1962: Colloquium on Modern Computation Techniques in Industrial Automatic Control, Paris, France; contact French Association of Automatic Control (AFRA), 19, Rue Blance, Paris 9, France. June 4-14, 1962: Mathematical Techniques of Optimization (lO-Day Short Course on Operations Research), Purdue University, Lafayette, Ind.; contact Div. of Adult Education, Purdue University, Lafayette, Ind. June II-July 20, 1962: Summer Institute on Advanced Topics in the Computer Sciences, Computation Center, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, N. c.; contact Dr. John W. Carr, III, Computation Center, Universityof North Carolina, P. O. Box 929, Chapel Hill, N.C. June l8-Sept. 14, 1962: Engineering Summer Conference Courses, Univ. of Mich., Ann Arbor, Mich.; contact Raymond E. Carroll, Univ. of Mich., 126 West Engineering Bldg., Ann Arbor, Mich. June 19-21, 1962: Fourth Joint Automatic Control Conference, Univ. of Texas, Austin, Tex.; contact Prof. Otis L. Updike, Dept. of Chemical Engineering, Univ. of Va., Charlottesville, Va. June 19-21, 1962: Second Annual San Diego BioMedical Engineering Symposium and Exhibit, Stardust Motor Hotel, San Diego, Calif.; contact The Program Committee, Inter-Science, Inc., 8484 La Jolla Shores Dr., La Jolla, Calif. COMPUTERS (/Ild AUTOMATION for March. 19()2 of IT these negot In; ratior ters c ing nl about specif ClrcU1 tude of we and ( lions, tion needs This dutie~ as ; tin~ will cen call are aut latJ ten surl mel Arl( a disl UT) mo cell can plel is {, be cen the the per put dim can repl obtt Thl all day Fret these ated c: stratet tern p mana t much a~es al operat plann, that i ture e In t and ir COMP] ough ident ~cliv Igress ;ocia- '.?rica) ,?y we ~·row. ~ergy) olllafzeads ~oing II on luced lague ly be)aper ltion, comobvi[ this !tend ation rising , and turn on as d inn enIvernstand It the g 524 re of stems [rn to [ccessic adad of ys: ~nd is If dolutput ~trical leT or o and ,tition ) comcomsemlunder ! with S.S.R. [ch of can. If perlitude ll, 1962 July 17-18, 1962: Rochester Conference on Data Acquisition and Processing in Medicine and Biology, University of Rochester Medical Center, Rochester, N. Y.; contact Mr. Kurt Enslein, University of Rochester, Rochester 20, N. Y. June 19-22, 1962: National Machine Accountants Association International Conference, Hotel Statler, New York, N. Y.; contact R. Calvin Elliott, Exec. Dir., NMAA, 524 Busse Highway, Park Ridge, Ill. June 27-28, 1962: 9th Annual Symposium on Computers and Data Processing, Elkhorn Lodge, Estes Park, Colo.; contact W. H. Eichelberger, Denver Research Inst., Univ. of Denver, Denver 10, Colo. June 27-29, 1962: Joint Automatic Control Conference, New York Univ., New York, N. Y.; contact Dr. H. J. Hornfeck, Bailey Meter Co., 1050 Ivanhoe Rd., Cleveland 10, Ohio. July 18-19, 1962: Data Acquisition & Processing in Medicine & Biology, Whipple Auditorium, Strong Memorial Hospital, Rochester, N. Y.; contact Kurt Enslein, Brooks, Inc., 499 W. Comm. St., P. O. Box 271, E. Rochester, N. Y. August 9-11, 1962: Northwest Computing Association Annual Conference, Seattle, Wash.; contact Robert Smith, Conference Director, Box 836, Seahurst, Wash. Aug. 21-24, 1962: 1962 Western Electronic Show and Convention, California Memorial Sports Arena and Statler-Hilton Hotel, Los Angeles, Calif.; contact Wescon Business Office, c/o Technical Program Chairman, 1435 S. La Cienega Blvd., Los Angeles 35, Calif. Aug. 27-Sept. 1, 1962: 2nd International Conference on Information Processing, Munich, Germany; contact Mr. Charles W. Adams, Charles W. Adams Associates, Inc., 142 the Great Road, Bedford, Mass. Sept. 3-7, 1962: International Symp. on Information Theory, Brussels, Belgium; contact Bruce B. Barrow, Postbus 174, Den Haag, Netherlands Sept. 3-8, 1962: First International Congress on Chemical Machinery, Chemical Engineering and Automation, Brno, Czechoslovakia; contact Organizing Committee for the First International Congress on Chemical Machinery, Engineering and Automation, Vystaviste 1, Brno, Czechoslovakia. Sept. 19-20, 1962: 11th Annual Industrial Electronics Symposium, Chicago, Ill.; contact Ed. A. Roberts, Comptometel' Corp., 5600 Jarvis Ave., Chicago 48, Ill. Oct. '2-4; 1962: National Symposium on Space Elec. & Telemetry, Fountainbleu Hotel, Miami Beach, Fla.; contact Dr. Arthur Rudolph, Army Ballistic Missile Agency, R&D 01'. Bldg. 4488, Redstone Arsenal, Ala. Oct. 8-10, 1962: National Electronics Conference, Exposition Hall, Chicago, Ill.; contact National Elec. Conf., 228 N. LaSalle, Chicago, Ill. October 15 -18, 1962: Conference on Signal Recording on Moving Magnetic Media, The Hungarian Soc~ety for Optics, Acoustics and Cine technics, Budapest, Hungary; contact Optikai, Akusztikai, es Filmtechnikai Egyesulet, Szabadsag ter 17, Budapest V, Hungary Oct. 3 <)'.:n, 1962: Conference on Eng. Tech. in Missile & . ---- Spaceborne Computers, Disneyland Hotel, Anaheim, Calif.; contact William Gunning, EPSCO-West, 240 E. Palais Rd., Anaheim, Calif. Nov. 5-7, 1962: 15th Annual Conf. on Elec. Tech. in Medicine and Biology, Conrad Hilton Hotel, Chicago, Ill.; contact Dr. J. E. Jacobs, 624 Lincoln Ave., Evanston, Ill. Nov. 13-15, 1962: NEREM (Northeast Res. & Engineering Meeting), Boston, Mass.; contact NEREM-IRE Boston Office, 3 13 Washington St., Newton, Mass. Dec. 4-5, 1962: Eastern Joint Computer Conference, Bellevue-Stratford Hotel, Philadelphia, Pa. BOOI{S AND OTHER PUBLICATIONS Moses M. Berlin Allston, Mass. We publish here citations and brief reviews of books and other publications which have a significant relation to computers, data processing, and automation, and which have come to our attention. We shall be glad to report other information in future lists if a review copy is sent to us. The plan of each entry is: author or editor / title / publisher or issuer / date, publication process, number of pages, price or its equivalent / comments. If you write to a publisher or issuer, we would appreciate your mentioning Computers and Automation. Tomer, Robert B. I Industrial Transistor & Semiconductor Handbook I Howard W. Sams & Co., Inc., 3334 Sutherland Ave., Indianapolis 6, Ind. I August, 1961, printed, 254 pp, $4.95 The operating charactcristics, circuit-design procedures, and typical applications of many types of semiconductors are here discussed. In twelvc chaptcrs the author covers "Semiconductor Physics," "Circuit CO~IPUTERS Fundamentals," "Industrial Control Using Semiconductors," "Thermoelectricity in Solar-Energy Conversion," "The Future of Semiconductors," etc. Two appendices discuss "Thermal Stability" and list "Transistor Parameter Symbols and Definitions." Index. Holland, James G., and U. F. Skinner I The Analysis of Behavior I McGraw-Hill Bool< Co., Inc., 330 West 42 St., New York 36, N. Y. I 1961, printed, 377 pp, $3.50 This text is arranged so that the student "should be able to instruct himself in [the] part of psychology which deals with . . . the explicit prediction and control of the behavior of people." The authors, Professors of Psychology at Harvard University, have constructed a programmed textbookin lieu of a teaching machine-with the subject matter presented from fundamentals to involved applications of theory. Fourteen parts including fifty-three sets comprise the book. Following each group of parts, reviews and tests are given. Pierce, J. R. I Symbols, Signals and Noise: The Nature and Process of Communication (Harper Modem Science Series) I Harper & Uros., 39 East 33 St., New York 16, N. Y. I 1961, printed, 305 PI', $6.50 Communication thcory is discusscd frolll a mathematical point of vicw, with theorems concerning collllllunication following mul A UTO~IATION for March, 1902 from fundamental hypotheses. The author, Director of Research in Communications Principles at the Bell Telephone Labs., introduces the subjcct in thc chapter, "The World and Thcorics." Speech, physical uses of numbcrs and somc basic theorems arc discussed. Thc rcmaining thirteen chapters includc: "Thc Origills of Information Thcory," "Encoding and Binary Digits," "Cyhcrtlctics," "Information Theory and Psychology," and the final chapter, "Back to Communication Theory." An appendix, "On Mathematical Notation," a glossary and an index are included. Reistad, Dale L. I Banking Automation and the Magnetic Ink Character Recognition Program I Detroit Research Institute, 12 East Hancock, Detroit 1, Mich. I 196], printed, 180 pp, $7.50 This book contains two almost equal parts, the first consisting of an introducI ion to the techniques of magnetic ink charactcr recognition, the second, of papers on currcnt applications. In seven chapters the author, Consultant to Booz, Allen and Ilallliitoll, discusses banking- automation, (llaraclcr codes, document filing, specialized (oillputcrs which perform recognition, and preparing for automation. The papers, which form the second part of the book, include: "A Case Study - of a Bank Noll' Prcparing to Handle MICR Items," "The Future Role of Computers in Banking," and "Printing of Documents." 21 Make over 200 Small Computing and :Reasoning Machines with ... BRAINIAC ELECTRIC BRAIN CONSTRUCTION KIT INTI THE THE UNEl E S ~ C WHAT COMES WITH YOUR BRAINIAC® KIT? All 33 experiments from our original kit (1955), with exact wiring templates for each one. All 13 experiments from the former Tyniac kit. 156 entirely new experiments with their solutions. Over 600 parts, as follows: 6 Multiple Switch Discs; Mounting Panel; 10 Flashlight Bulbs; 2 Multiple Socket Parts, each holding 5 bulbs; 116 Wipers, for making good electrical contact (novel design, patented, no. 2848568) ; 70 Jumpers, for transfer contacts; 50 feet of Insulated Wire; Flashlight Battery; Battery Box; nuts, bolts, sponge rubber washers, hard washers, screwdriver, spintite blade, etc. ALSO: 256 page book, "Brainiacs" by Edmund C. Berkeley, including chapters on: an introduction to Boolean Algebra for designing circuits; "How to go from Brainiacs and Geniacs® to Automatic Computers"; complete descriptions of 201 experiments and machines; over 160 circuit diagrams; list of references to computer literature. This kit is an up-to-the-minute introduction to the design of arithmetical, logical, reasoning, computing, puzzle-solving, and game-playing circuits-for boys, students, schools, colleges, designers. It is simple enough for intelligent boys to assemble, and yet it is instructive even to engineers because'it shows how many kinds of computing and reasoning circuits can be made from simple components. This kit is the outcome of 11 years of design and development work with small electric brains and small robots by Berkeley Enterprises, Inc. With this kit and manual you can easily make over 200 small electric brain machines that display intelligent behavior and teach understanding first-hand. Each one runs on one flashlight battery; all connections with nuts and bolts; no soldering required. (Returnable for full refund if not satisfactory.) ... Price $18.95. 1 S ADD] 1 1 1 1 DEC! P 'I P ~ :c THE TIMI EDU( A MC CON~ AFTE WHAT CAN YOU MAKE WITH A BRAINIAC KIT? LOGIC MACHINES Syllogism Prover J ames McCarty's Logic Machine AND, OR, NOT, OR ELSE, IF . • . THEN, IF AND ONLY IF, NEITHER ... NOR Machines A Simple Kalin-Burkhart Logical Truth Calculator The Magazine Editor's Argument The Rule About Semicolons and Commas The Farnsworth Car Pool GAME-PLAYING MACHINES Tit-Tat-Toe Black Match Nim Sundorra 21 Frank McChesney's Wheeled Bandit COMPUTERS - to add, subtract, multiply, divide, . . . , using decimal or binary numbers. - to convert from decimal to other scales of notation and vice versa, etc. Operating with Infinity Adding Indefinite Quantities Factoring Any Number from 45 to 60 Prime Number Indicator for Numbers 1 to 100 Thirty Days Hath September Three Day Weekend for Christmas Calendar Good for Forty Years 1950 to 1989 Money Changing Machine Four by Four Magic Square Character of Roots of a Quadratic Ten Basic Formulas of Integration ;;;;;;====~===================~ In Wrty akes n An RCA 501 computer, used in conjunction with an electronic scoring and data transcription machine, enables the testing service to provide schools and colleges information about individual applying students, -- more information, faster, and more easily than ever before. which reads tne tag at speeds of one to 60 miles per hour. The tag is readable by humans as well as by the scanner. It carries the code of the owning railroad and the number of the car. Other data can be i ncl uded if desired. Microwave reflections from the tag are translated into a teletype code output signal. This signal may be used to send train car listings to control centers, can be transmitted to hump towers to assist in switching operations, and has applications in autDmating the interrailroad per diem charges for cars. TOOL FOR CONTOUR TAPE-CONTROLLED MILLING ~~CHINE Records of student candidates, which previously occupied extensive storage space in file cabinets, can now be stored on magnetic tape and can be located, updated and processed much more easily. ve, 1- The testing service can then keep cumulative records on individual students and provide comprehensive reports to schools and colleges covering student performance. The new computer can also handle details of administrative tasks associated with large scale testing programs such as assigning students to test centeis and printing tickets of admission. ,rds nal lltithe The computer will permit the testing service to deal with the steadily growing number of students who are taking tests and will enable the organization to provide valuable new services without delaying critical reporting dates. The RCA computer system, working with ETS's electronic scoring and transcribing machine, has the capability of processing 6000 test papers an hour. In addition to the main computer unit, the RCA 501 system includes a high-speed memory containing more than 32,000 characters. There are seven magnetic-tape memory units, each storing 10 million characters. Reports are produced on a high-speed printer capable of printing ten 120-character lines per second. ethect J se- atput or assible Thompson Ramo Wooldridge, Michigan City, Ind., is building the numerical control system for contour milling for the new Wilson milling machine, which was designed and built by The H. & H. Wilson Company of Bell, Calif. This machine is a ram-type, tape-controlled, 4-spindle, 12-speed, contour-milling machine, with all motions capable of moving 200 inches per minute simultaneously. The TRW numerical control is a solidstate system for continuous path control of three axes, simultaneously. It includes a 400-character-per-second photo-electric tape reader to accept the standard 1-2-4-8 binary code from one-inch 8-level punched tape. The system has internal feed-rate override, command multiply, and a word-address tape format. The system also includes an optional stop control, manual data input and full data display and servo error detection jor each axis. FREIGHT CAR IDENTIFYING American Brake Shoe Company, New York, and Transdata, Inc., San Diego, Calif., have agreed to cooperate in the engineering, testing, manufacture and marketing of an automatic freight car identification system for the railroads. The Microwave Identification Railroad Encoding Reflector System is known as MIRRER. It consists of a special tag to be mounted on each railroad car, and a trackside scanner 1962 COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for March, 1962 9B ACROSS EDITOR'S DESI( News of Conlputers and Data Processors 1 !: V New Computing Centers TACTICAL AIR OPERATIONS CENTER The first Tactical Air Operations Center of the advanced Marine Corps Tactical Data System, developed by the Data Systems Division of Litton Systems, Inc., Canoga Park, Calif., is in operation for field evaluation at the Marine Corps Air Facility at Santa Ana, Calif. The center is installed in a complex of helicopter-transportable huts. The system can also be moved by transport aircraft or truck. The equipment, which includes high-speed digital computers, permits the establishment of integrated air defense, close air support, enroute air traffic control. and control of surface-to-air missiles -- all within a few hours from starting to set up in a new location. C-E-I-R ANNOUNCES NEW CHICAGO CENTER A new research and electronic data processing service center is planned for Chicago in September, 1962, by C-E-I-R Inc. This will be C-E-I-R's eighth in the United Statesj they also operate centers in Paris. London and Mexico City. Q COMPUTERMAT II "DO-IT-YOURSELF" COMPUTER CENTER ComputerMat, Inc. has opened its second self-service computer center at 14827 Ventura Blvd., San Fernando Valley, Calif. This new center includes an IBM 1620 Data Processing System and is patterned after the company's first center located in Los Angeles. The service is offered to many engineering, scientific, and commercial firms which need the advantages of a computer but are too small to justify a system of their own. The necessary equipment is provided and the customer is allowed to do his own work. An experienced staff is provided to assist clients in the preparation of programs and machine operation if such assistance is desired. OPTICAL CHARACTER READING INTO COMPUTING EQUIPMENT The Pennsylvania Power & Light Company', Philadelphia, Pa., has exhibited its new IBM 1418 Optical Character Reader. Tactical Air Operations Center brings advanced data processing and display facilities to the Marines' traditional role of amphibious assault. The helicopter portable display hut shown is linked to computer and communications huts. lOB puter The 1 puter solid puter line autom desig steel close high forme are r on th moduli fit t arran the P' compu' gram' probl, termir to 90 , velopE is ca] opera1 to cor with ~ This ] and aj compu1 1 The machine "reads" conventional printed or typed information somewhat like the human eye and "writes" results on magnetic tape. Information is taken from meter reading sheets by the Optical Character Reader and recorded on tape. This information next goes to the IBM 7070 which computes the customer's bill. The company reports it can process 22,000 bills a day in the new center. asynct prepar module wave t ceivin COMPUTERS and AUTOMA TION for March, 1962 COMPl reCOVE data s Contra and co transrr replac termin NEW PRODUCTS MULTIPURPOSE ANALOG COMPUTER TO CONTROL PROCESSES Electronic Associates, Inc. Long Branch, N.J. go eSj A new line of mUlti-purpose analog computers has been developed by this company. The line is known as the Multi-Purpose Computer PC-12 line and is assembled from stock, solid-state modular components. These computers are produced in various sizes for online control of industrial processes and for automatic data processing. They have been designed to meet requirements of chemical, steel and other industrial processes for closed-loop control or for applications where high speed on-line computation must be performed on constantly changing data. In the PC-12 the permanent connections are replaced by a system of patching modules on the rear of the computer chassis. The modules are interconnected by patch cords to fit the requirements of the problem. This arrangement eliminates the need for disturbing the program configuration when replacing a computing module. It also permits the program to be readily modified to meet changing problem requirements. ring, all sced on , M ed n ets d UW2 PHCITOCELL PUNCHED TAPE READER Rheem Manufacturing Co. Electronics Division 5200 W. l04th St. Los Angeles, Calif. A new high-speed photocell punched-tape reader, the RR-IOOO, is being produced by this company. It handles 1000 characters per secondj it has completely transistorized circuits, photovoltaic sensing cells, and two-speed motor dr i ves. DIGIT-MATIC CALCULATORS Victor Business Machines Co. Division of Victor Comptometer Corp. 3900 North Rockwell St. Chicago 18, Ill. The picture below shows a solenoid actuated Digit-Matic Calculator with the cover removed. Serial entry units have solenoid-operated numerical keys. addition, subtraction, multiplication. and division keys. NEW SWIFT DATA COMMUNICATION SYSTEM General Electric Company Communication Products Dept. Lynchburg, Va. A new transistorized data communications terminal which is capable of transmitting up to 90,000 characters per second has been developed by this company. This new equipment is called the TDS-90. It enables large, fastoperating computers in major computer centers to converse directly in computer language with smaller devices in satellite locations. This lessens down-time at the central location and affords maximum utilization of the larger computers, making the center more productive. The TDS-90 transmitting equipment accepts asynchronous signals from a magnetic tape unit, prepares these signals for transmission, and modulates them onto the base band of a microwave beam or coaxial cable. The TDS-90 receiving equipm~nt demodulates the signals, recovers signal energy, and shapes it into data suitable for transfer to the computer. Control signals, necessary for the operation and control of a tape unit, are encoded and transmitted via the data channel. A TDS-90 replaces a single tape unit at each computer termination. COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for March, I9G2 The calculators perform both basic and complex math. Some applications are: computation of density, area. velocity, temperature, force. pressure and flow rate. lIB WRITTEN MESSAGES BY TELEPHQ~E Written messages may now be sent over regular telephone lines by simply dialing and connecting in the normal way. TELautograph Co., New York, has developed the PHONE-writer which is used in connection with Bell Telephone's DATAPHONE service. The user can either talk, write, or do both with a single call. Written messages may also be sent to unattended receivers. Anyone can transmit handwritten or sketched information instantaneously from one location to another. Carbon copies may also be provided by the device. It is possible to sort according to types defined by marks on the card itself. An enlarged card-stacking area, redesigned card receivers, and the inclusion of misfeed stopping devices, permit the machine to function without constant attention from an operator. The type 5440 has a mark scanning capacity of forty columns. Its 90-column punching capacity makes it compatible with all elements in 90-column systems. DIGITAL COMPUTER TEACHING DEVICE Corporation 471 N.E. 79th St. Miami 38, Fla. Dynatec~ This company is producing an inexpensive, fundamental teaching device for digital computer s. The self-contained flip-flop lucite cards hold two binary read-out lights and additional circuit components. The digital computer teaching device can accomplish addition. multiplication, subtraction, and division up to the number 31, in binary 11111. N.J. rep< on t six witt ti or pro\! indi tior viou filE tape much lati vide colI new mini scal stud of a serv numb will able repo ANALOG UNIT TO ESTIMATE SCHEDULE COSTS Mauchly Associates, Inc. Fort Washington, Pa. In the top picture is shown the PHONE-writer transmitter; in the bottom picture, the PHONE-writer receiver. NEW UNIVAC OPTICAL SCANNING PUNCH Remington Rand Univac 315 Park Avenue South New York 10, N.Y. Information indicated by pencil marks on source-document cards can be read and punched at a rate of 150 cards per minute with the Univac 5440 Optical Scanning Punch, developed by this company. 12B An analog computer that will enable a company to determine the most economical method of meeting various schedules for a project has been developed by this company. The computer, called SkeduFlo Model MCX-30. is operated by setting up the job sequences by pinboard. Possible project durations are scanned automatically. and an output curve is automatically plotted during the scan. The project coordinator or supervisor is able to determine what schedules are feasible and what jobs are critical in any possible schedule. The- name tlMCX-30n stands for minimum-cost expediting computer with capability of handling up to 30 jobs. ETS' mach 6000 main clud than neti mill a hi 120- and' agre ing, freil rail EncOI It CI cllch COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for March, 1962 COM COMPUTER-LINOFILM CONVERTER ~d I fIt em t- and tern ne1 ro1 Mergenthaler Linotype Company 29 Ryerson St. Brooklyn 5. N.Y. This company has developed a device to transpose computer-output information into punched tape. The converter will act as a link between large computers and the typesetting unit of Mergenthaler's Linofilm system for photocomposition. The data-processing computer will produce magnetic tape which the computer-Linofilm converter accepts. It is then transposed into punched paper tape to operate the Linofilm Photo Unit. The photo unit output is right-reading positive type on film or photographic paper from which printed pages of textbook quality can be produced. NEW LONG-LENGTH DELAY LINE Deltime Inc. 608 Fayette Ave. Mamaroneck, N.Y. A long-length delay line of the magnetostrictive design has been developed by this company. It is suitable for data storage functions in computer systems at increased frequencies. The Deltime 197 delay line provides a 5 millisecond delay with a pulse repetition rate of one megacycle with areturn-tozero operation. The converter will be made commercially available in mid-1962. ms ,- 1- IBM 7094. POWERFUL NEW SOLID-STATE COMPUTER International Business Machines Corp. Data Processing Division 112 East Post Road White Plains. N.Y. ut IJ r 'I.. imes, ent 1- ate ter d nut 1- even llt IS Ired ll- II of 'ans- 1962 The IBM 7094 data processing system is the most powerful of the company's solid-state scientific computers. Increased speed and processing power of the 7094 are provided by faster adding circuits. additional index registers and instructions, and facility for performing double-precision floating point ar it hme tic. The new system has a storage capacity of 32,768 words. A variety of input and output configurations are available. The machine can be linked to various IBM Tele-processing devices for full data-transmission ability. System compatibility makes it possible for a customer with a 7090 to use the 7094 with no reprogramming. The magnetic tape unit enables the computer to accept and record data at speeds up to 170,000 characters a second. The 7094 can have instantaneous access"to up to" 279 million characters of information stored on magnetic disks in IBM 1301 disk storage units. With a memory reference speed of 2.00 microseconds, the 7094 can in one second perform 500,000 logical decisions, 250,000 additions or subtractions, 100,000 multiplications or 62.500 divisions. COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for March, 1962 SOLID CERAMIC CIRCUITS Radio Corporation of America 30 Rockefeller Plaza New York 20, N.Y. This company has developed a solidceramic circuit one-third the size of an aspirin tablet. The developmental device can perform all conventional circuit functions from aplification to computer switching. The circuits include both active and passive materials. They are fully compatible with the RCA Micromodule Program -- a U.S. Army sponsored effort to develop miniature tactical communications systems and computers using circuits no bigger than an ordinary sugar cube. They also can be used with all other forms of micro-circuitry from multi-e1ement assemblies to integrated and molecular devices. Pilot production of the units is scheduled to begin before the end of 1962. 13B NEW INSTALLATIONS ILLINOIS BLUE CROSS-BLUE SHIELD INSTALLS HONEYWELL 800 A Honeywell 800 electronic computer has been installed by Illinois Blue Cross-Blue Shield in Chicago as part of a program to maintain low operating costs and to further improve service to its subscribers, hospitals and physicians. Over 75,000 school children are members of the bank's Junior Savings plan and will be among the first depositors handled by the computer. Over $10 million has been deposited by the young people using this plan. Annual interest calculations necessary to keep these accounts up to date each year formerly took on punched card equipment 21 hours each quarter to calculate. The job is now completed in 21 minutes with the IBM 1401. ing thil of I The computer will also work on accounting, personal loans, mortgages. and corporate stock records. and in l be ( ces~ ARKANSAS AND TEXAS IN THE NEXT ROOM TO CONNECTICUT By using telephone lines to link a computer at its Middlebury. Conn •• headquarters with plants 1500 miles away. The U.S. Time Corporation is now processing product schedules, payrolls, and shipping invoices as efficiently as if all the facilities were in the same office. The company is the world's largest manufacturer of watches and producers of gyroscopes. The new installation. the IBM 1401 Data Processing System. transmits the data from punched cards bearing wage and hour data for each employee over telephone lines from Little Ruck. Ark •• to Middlebury. Conn. through an IBM transmitting-receiving device called a "data transceiver". Contract data concerning the nearly 5 million members of Illinois Blue Cross-Blue Shield will be contained in 13 magnetic tape reels like those shown at the left and held by Pat Tielbar, electronics department employee, in the picture above. The new machine is capable of performing more than 40,000 operations a second, such as additions and subtractions. The entire file can be reviewed by the computer in about one hour each day, posting an average of 20,000 transactions and changes in membership status. The Honeywell 800 is expected to handle almost all of the bookkeeping for the organization. Daily production figures are similarly transmitted from the Little Rock and Abilene. Texas, plants to Connecticut, where they are balanced against pending orders. The computer processes the orders and transmits the pertinent data back to Little Rock as printed shipping documents and invoices. In addition, the data transmitted to the computing center is recorded in the 1401 for use in sales forecasts and analyses, cost and production control reports. accounts receivable. billings. and other accounting documents. pow~ boa) syst chen si s gim Comn madE to a pipi whic ComJ: ing with cess fom alon proc back anch ment poin prog clos any , ... -.-~- The company is planning to have a teleprocessIng connection between its European and its Ame'rican" offices~ IBM COMPUTER FOR LONG ISLAND BANK f~ i The Franklin Natiohal Bank of Long Island, New York, is converting to a high speed IBM 1401 computer for handling much of the recordkeeping functions. 14B COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for March, 1962 COM. Jout jes y 011- he he r- ,f 1- .e leck. 11le Lng be )n n IBM 7074 SYSTEM FOR PENN STATE CONTROL DATA RECEIVES CONTRACT INCREASE The Pennsylvania State University has installed an IBM 7074 computing system to meet the growing needs of its faculty and graduate students for computational services. This will be the first system of this type to be used in purely academic applications. The IBM 7074 is replacing an IBM 650 system which fell short of the University's needs. Penn State also operates an IBM 7070 as an administrative machine. Control Data Corporation of Minneapolis, Minn., has now received production contracts for eleven fire control computers totaling in excess of $5 million, to be delivered in 1962 and 1963. The earlier research and development prime contract, to develop the geoballistic fire control computers, was also in excess of $5 million. The Computation Center at Penn State is available to all faculty members and graduate students who have need of computer services in their research or instruction. A staff of a dozen specialists assist faculty and graduate students in programming and problem solving. STATISTICAL TABULATING CORP. IN SAN FRANCISCO INSTALLS IBM 1400 SYSTEMS Statistical Tabulating Corporation has installed an IBM 1400 system in the firm's San Francisco data processing and computer center at 417 Market Street. STC has 14 offices across the country and has put the IBM 1400 system into seven centers in the past year. Seven additional 1400 systems are planned for delivery in the first quarter of this year. :1 isi- NEW CONTRACTS earanuto chr- ures f ~ POLARIS PRINTER CONTRACTS Alirl\RDED TO POTTER INSTRUMENT COMPANY Three separate contracts totalling over $465,000 from three of the major suppliers on the POLARIS Fleet Ballistic Missile program were awarded to Potter Instrument Company, Inc. of Plainview, N.Y. The contracts are for design and production of high-speed line printers to be used in POLARIS-equipped submarines. cuof 'e CONTRACT TO OPERATIONS RESEARCH INC. Iply. A contract for the provision of an automated management Information and control system (PERT), standing for Programmed Evaluation and Review Technique, for the national Civil Defense program has been awarded to Operations Research, Santa Monica, Calif. No dollar figure was disclosed. 1962 COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for March, 1962 und 'i ngs The purpose of the Polaris Mark 84 Fire Control computer, designed and built by Control Data, is to receive position data from the Ship's Inertial Nav~gation System (SINS), and to calculate trajectories to the assigned targets prior to the time the missiles are fired, currently loading trajectory information to the computers in the Polaris missiles up to the moment the missile is fired. The fire control system can prepare missiles for launch at the rate of one per minute. Missiles are guided in flight by their own inertial guidance systems • SYLVANIA RECEIVES "ZMAR" $28 MILLION CONTRACT Sylvania Electronic Systems, a subsidiary of General Telephone & Electronics, received the ZMAR (Zeus multi-function array radar) award from Bell Telephone Laboratories. ZMAR, is for use in the U.S. Army's Nike-Zeus antimissile missile system. This system is being developed to provide a defense of the continental United States against the threat of intercontinental ballistic missiles. Bell Telephone Laboratories is responsible for the design and development of the Nike-Zeus system. Western Electric Company is prime contractor for the Nike-Zeus program. ANELEX RECEIVES CONTRACT FOR OVER $2 MILLION ANelex Corporation has been awarded a contract in excess of $2,000,000 by International Electric Corp., an ITT subsidiary, for special purpose, militarized printer systems. These printer systems are for use in SAC's Project 465L, a completely integrated command control system. The system, designed by IEC, will provide the Strategic Air Command with instantaneous information and positive control of its forces by means of a high speed data acquisition~ pro~essing and display system. '-'" - -- 15B $15 MILLION AWARDED SPERRY FOR POLARIS SUB NAVIGATHN The Sperry Gyroscope Company has received $15 million from the U. S. Navy for design, production, and installation of navigation equipment aboard ten new Polaris submarines. The submarines to be equipped with the navigation aids will be ships of the Lafayette class. They will be capable of carrying 2500-mile, nuclear-tipped Polaris missiles -weapons that will be able to reach a target anywhere on earth. (Five Polaris submarines equipped with 1200-mile-range missiles are now on station at sea.) The new ships are scheduled to be in service with the fleet by the end of 1964. AIRLINE RESERVATION SYSTEM FOR OZARK AIR LINES Ozark Air Lines, St. Louis, Mo., has entered into a contract with the Univac Division of Remington Rand for equipment to process passenger reservations between Ozark and all other airlines. About 65% of Ozark passengers use the services of another airline to complete their journey. This requires the processing of reservations between two or more airlines. The UnivacUnicall equipment will reduce the time for this type of reservation to a matter of seconds and practically eliminate errors. The basic equipment consists of a large Univac electronic brain located in Chicago, and an electronic device at each Ozark station known as Unicall. Remington Rand is installing a nationwide Airline Interline Development (AID) system in which all airlines are expected to participate. In operation, the schedules of all airlines for months in advance are fed into the electronic memory machine. Availability of seats on each flight is kept current by each airline. To obtain the information in the electronic brain, a reservation agent at any Ozark station merely sets the levers on his Unicall to the proper inquiry, picks up his telephone and the computer returns a voice reply reporting whether ft is able or not able to confirm the reservation. When AID is in full operation, space on any flight operating in the United States can be secured through the device, permitting almost instant confirmation of return reservations. PorTER RECEIVES OVER $1,000,000 CONTRACT thE Ame Potter Instrument Company, Inc. has received a contract of over $1,000,000 from RCA for development and production of special magnetic tape transport systems. These systems are to be used in the U.S. Air Force COMLOGNET (Communication Logistic Network). OVER $1 MILLION CONTRACT FOR BECKMAN The Systems Division of Beckman Instruments, Inc., has received a contract from AETRON-Covina Plant, a Division of AerojetGeneral Corporation for more than $1 million. The equipment, two data acquisition systems, is for use in the NASA Saturn space vehicle program and will be used in test of rocket engines. The systems will record performance data from tests of the rocket engines at speeds up to 5,000 samples a second. The equipment will edit, correct, and tabulate the information and record it on magnetic tape for evaluation by digital computers. CONTROL CENTERS FOR DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE TO BE EQUIPPED BY IBM FEDERAL SYSTEMS DIVISION IBM's Federal Systems Division, Rockville, Maryland, has received a contract from the Defense Communications Agency to install four advanced information-handling systems. These systems will be installed at Defense Department Area Communications Control Centers in Europe, Alaska, Hawaii and Colorado. These centers currently are manually operated. A solid-state IBM 1410 Data Processing System at each center will receive status reports from DCS operating stations in its geographical area. From these reports, the 1410 will plot the area status on electronic wall displays in each center and at the Defense National Communications Control Center near Washington, D.C. The computer systems will help the Department of Defense keep important military messages moving through its global Defense Communications System -- under almost all emergency conditions. The Defense Communications System comprises 6300 circuits spread through 73 countries around the world. It consists mainly of government owned or leased long-haul pointto-point circuits of the three military departments and other DOD facilities. ans cod v id ous the put car Eas In dea suI era ing ver the fir pai wou sys a tl cisl dif: pos: the Bri 1 terl woul eve] er' ~ tean chan by a port comp pora the 1401 that on a inve deli mini pect earn will crea dail. The basi also Custl 16B COMPUTERS and AUTOMA TION for March, 1962 CON PEOPLE OF NOTE 34 AWARDS TO IBM STAFF INVENTORS Ronald D. Dodge, Leon E. Palmer and George AG Walker, engineers at IBMvs Lexington, Ky., electric typewriter laboratory, jOintly developed a wear compensator for the company's new "Selectric" typewriter o A $30,000 cash award was presented to them by the company for their joint inventiono 2 The presentation was made at a dinner honoring 34 award winners under the companyVs Invention Award Plan. The group, representing seven IBM divisions, research laboratories, and the IBM World Trade Corporation, was credited with twenty inventions rated "outstanding" by the company. In additio~ to the $30,000 award, a $10,000 award, and two $5,000 awards, each of the 34 engineers honored had previously been awarded $1,000. The award plan was inaugurated a year ago to encourage employee inventions and to give recognition to employee inventors who contribute significantly to the company's teehnological progress o uble e s. h s lke- ~en Iwnds ved he DR. LOUIS G. DUNN SUCCEEDS GENERAL DOOLITTLE General J. H. Doolittle, Chairman of the Board of Thompson Ramo Wooldridge lnco's Subsidiary, Space Technology Laboratories, Inc. has retired upon reaching STLvs normal retirement age of 65. General Doolittle will continue as a member of the Board of Directors of both companies and as an STL consultant. Dro Louis G. Dunn, who has been President of STL since 1958 will succeed General Doolittle as Chairman of the Board of STL. Dr. Ruben F. Mettler, who has been STLts Executive Vice President since 1958, has been elected to succeed Oro Dunn as President and Chief Executive officer of STL. m- re oer !Lel y ~ num- NEW LIBRASCOPE VICE PRESIDENT Myron R. Prevatte has been elected a vice president of Libr,ascope. Previously he was manager of the Washington office. He will continue to direct operations of the division's Washington, D.C. customer relations office. :llll Amcricham.!rnll- Arc 19(i2 Prevatte joined Librascope in 1955 and was responsible for development of computer control systems for the Navy's ASROC weapon system and for weapon systems aboard Fleet Rehabilitation and Modernization destroyers. COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for March, 1962 DIRECTOR OF BEMA DATA PROCESSING GROUP Charles A. -Phillips has been named director of the Data Processing Group of the Business Equipment Manufacturers Association. Mr. Phillips is credited with initiating the COBOL (Common Business Oriented Language) method of programming by giving general direction to an organization of computer users and manufacturers called the Conference on Data Systems Language (CODASYL). In January, 1957, Mr. Phillips was named Director, Data Systems Research Staff, in the Department of Defense. He has had extensive experience and responsibilities in data processing ever since he joined the government in 1935. ELECTRONIC DATA PROCESSING ADVISORY PANEL An EDP Advisory Panel to stimulate the interchange of ideas and technology between educational institutions and industry has been formed by Minneapolis-Honeywell 's Electronic Data Processing Division. The academic members of the panel include Dr. Maurice Wilkes, director of the Mathematical Laboratory, University of Cambridge (England); Dr. Philip Morse, professor of physics and director of the Computation Center at Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Dr. G. D. McCann, head of the electrical engineering department and director of the Computation Center at California Institute of Technology; Dr. Nicholas Metropolis, director of the Institute for the Study of Computers, University of Chicago, and Dr. Norman R. Scott, professor of electrical engineering and editor of IRE Transactions, University of Michigan. Honeywell panel members are: Dr. J. Ernest Smith, vice president, EDP Division (panel chairman); John W. Anderson, the division's vice president in charge of engineering, and Richard M. Bloch, director of product planning. Dr. Ronald J. McFarlan, past president of IRE and consultant to Honeywell's EDP Division, is secretary of the panel. Meetings will be held several times a year. The first meeting was held January 2223 in Wellesley. Mass. 17B SOFTWARE NEWS EASY. HONEYWELL 400 PROGRAMMING AID EASY. the major automatic programming aid for the Honeywell 400 computer. was introduced as an operational system at a series of demonstrations at Honeywell Electronic Data Processing Division. Wellesley, Mass. This assembly system already is assembling computer programs at customer installations of the Honeywell 400. EASY includes sort and collate generators and a program-tape file-maintenance routine. It allows instructions to be written in elementary. three-character, mnemonic operation codes and symbolic location tags. It provides simple techniques for incorporating thoroughly tested problem solutions, such as sort routines, into a program. Any number of programs may be assembled for processing without operator interruption, and stored on magnetic tape for future use. LINEAR PR(x;RAMMING NOW AVAILABLE WITH G-20 Bendix Corporation's Computer Division reports that linear programming is now available with the G-20 system. They say that the G-20 linear programming routine can handle problems ranging from the smallest to those twice the capacity of any known linear programming routine. The mathematical method used is a composite computational algorithm. All arithmetic is performed in double-precision floating point with the working matrix up-dated in each iteration. Input to the program for data and control is punched cards. Only non-zero elements need be entered. Corrections to the program may be made by entering a single card without restarting the program. An optional feature allows input data to be listed on the line printer for verification. CINCH Packard Bell Computer Corporation's interpretive routine for the PB250 computer called CINCH has been modified to simplifyus use by personnel not familiar with computer programming techniques. The new CINCH routine is compatible with the original routine and with the software now available for the PB250. Modification of CINCH includes provisions for: easy correction of programming errors; simplification of coding; and extension of the routine for use with a PB250 of any memory size. The routine facilitates rapid programming of engineering and scientific problems. 18B PERT SYSTEM FOR IBM 1401 AND 7070 Telecomputing Services, Inc., subsidiary of Telecomputing Corporation of Los Angeles, Calif., has developed a basic PERT scheduling system for the IBM 1401 and 7070. TSI's computer program arranges PERT network data topologically so that network event nodes can be numbered at random. Up to 99 networks containing up to 2500 activities each can be scheduled for each computer run. The system has restart capabilities, error diagnostics, and disallowance of cyclic networks. The new PERT program is used by the firm's Los Angeles Data Center. NEOPHYTES WIN COBOL RACE The first fully checked out COBOL-61 compiler by a computer manufacturer was submitted to the Defense Dept. in January. A team of five neophyte computer programmers from International Business Machines Corporation's General Products Division at Endicott, N.Y. won for IBM an industrywide race: S.V. Codella, T.J. Worosz, Jr., L.R. OiLeary. P. Pecukonis, F.M. Quigley. The first version of COBOL. (which stands for Common Business Oriented Language) known as COBOL-60, was published two years ago. A revised version, published last June, is called COBOL-61. The government put industry on notice that it will not purchase equipment incapable of using COBOL automatic programming; so a race developed to get the revised and more final version into the hands of the government and commercial customers. is, com pro 1 c fou mor, and Eas1 The pIa) for to t entE Thus hand peti gram or f shou this sens, deal dealj empl< bers. ChOSE The first computer to cross the line came as a surprise to industry, the Defense Dept., and in some degree to IBM itself: the IBM 1410. The programming team that brought about this feat ranges in age from 23 to 32, and none of the five had much programming experience before June, 1960. The method the men used to write the complex computer program in record time is significant. It seemed logical to use a short-cut automatic programming technique to develop a new automatic computer program. The group were taught a kind of automatic programming language called XTRAN. XTRAN is a computer language that is capable of talking about languages and logic. With ~heir knowledge of XTRAN. the group put together the complex COBOL-61 master program for the 1410 computer. This experiment was stimulated half by conviction that a new approach to program writing would work, and half by the problem of not having enough experienced programmers; it worked. COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for March, 1962 SUCCE by th cards is tr two C from of ea rived numbe one tl by a 1 tualJ: in til. i Li al Northticule times initia other COMPl tu- BUSINESS NEWS IBM DECLARES INCOME FIGURES In. ~m. 's 'es Ilu~ lr- International Business Machines Corporation has announced its preliminary results for the year 1961. Thomas J. Watson. Jr., chairman of the board, reported that IBM's gross income for the year 1961 from the sale, service, and rental of its products in the United States amounted to $1,694,295,547. compared with $1,436,053,085 in the year 1960. Net earnings for the year ended December 31, 1961, after U.S. federal income taxes amounted to $207,227,597. This compares with net earnings after taxes for the year 1960 of $168,180,880. eTHE CURRENT STATUS OF RCA ELECTReNIC DATA ffiOCESSING first delivery of the RCA 601 is expected soon. The number of firm bookings for equipment to be delivered within 18 months is more than double the total of current installations. Bookings in 1961 were double the 1960 figure. Deliveries last year were 2~ times greater than the preceding twelve months. In a three-year period, RCA has moved into a strong position in the computer field. We are recognized as an important competitive factor • ••••• CeNTROL DATA CrnpORATION REPORTS INCREASED SALES AND PROFITS William C. Norris, President of Control Data Corporation, has reported that for the six months' period ended December 31, 1961, the Company's sales, rentals and service income was $17,308.142, as compared with $8,543,126 for the same period in 1960. Net earnings for the six months period were $636,990, compared with $403,722 for the previous year. lr- :omial David Sarnoff Chairman of the Board Radio Corp. of America New York, N. Y. .e gd a m be to time no is ely Data processing has become one of the fastest growing major businesses of RCA. In 1962, gross income from all RCA data processing activities, both commercial and military, is expected to be substantially in excess of $200 million dollars. Our commercial data processing sales and rental income alone should increase 2~ times in 1962. Through this increase, and improved operating procedures. we antiCipate a reduction of approximately 50 per cent in our 1962 data processing costs. We expect the costs in 1963 to be reduced by half again and we hope to realize a profit in data processing within 2 to 3 years from now. To support our growth plans, we now have approximately 2.000 scientists and engineers -- more than 25% of all scientists and engineers employed by RCA -- engaged in research and development on various projects related to data processing, from minute components to major systems for both industry and defense. The combination of their efforts and our wide-ranging technological background in electronics and communications gives us a capability in many computer areas that few, if any, other companies can hope to match. This is a young, rapidly-changing technology and we are determined to play an important role in its development. At the end of 1961, 125 RCA data processing systems had been installed. and the )(j2 COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for March, 1962 Norris also reported that the Company's backlog of orders continues to increase. As of December 31, 1961. 29 large-scale Control Data 1604 electronic digital computers were installed, and 124 Control Data 160 and 160-A electronic digital computers were delivered. Norris reported that a second large computing center has been put into operation by the Company at Stanford Industrial Park, Palo Alto, California. This computing center utilizes both the 1604 and 160 computers, and is now available on a service bureau basis. A similar computing center has been in operation for over one year at the Company's home office at Minneapol is. A number of programming systems are under development as a part of the Company's efforts in the business data processing market. Implementation of COBOL for the 1604 computer is now nearly complete and a version of this program is also being planned for the 160 and 160-A computers. HONEYWELL REPffiTS SALES GAINS Sales of Minneapolis-Honeywell Regulator Co. increased to a record $470.205.941 in 1961, as compared with $426,183.310 a year ago. Paul B. Wishart, chairman of the board, said all major phases of the oompany's business in 1961 showed increases in sales over last year, the largest being in military and space activities and in electronic data processing. At the year's end, new EDP systems with a sales value of $~6-million had been installed, and the year-end backlog exceeded that iigure. 19B New Firms, Divisions, and Mergers FOUR NEW VICTOR COMPTOMETER DIVISIONS Victor Comptometer Corporation of Chicago, Ill., has established four independent operating divisions to handle its activities outside the business machines industry -- three in recreation products and one in electronic systems and manufacturing. The new electronic systems and manufacturing division, Victor Electronic Systems Co., has been assigned responsibility for electronic data processing devices, advanced scientific products, including infra-red detection systems, and special defense contract work. The division will consolidate previous electronic activities of both Victor Adding Machine and Comptometer. TWO ELECTRONIC COMPANIES TO COMBINE Plans for a combination of Anadex Instruments Inc. and Infonetics Corp., both of Van Nuys, Calif., will be submitted to stockholders of both companies for approval. Anadex Instruments Inc., organized in 1957, manufactures precision analog and digital instruments. Infonetics Corp. organized in 1961, manufactures electro-mechanical data processing equipment. The new company will retain the name. Anadex Instruments Inc. TWO PHILADELPHIA DATA PROCESSING FIRMS MERGE A new firm, Electronic Processing Center Inc., has been formed as the result of a merger between Electronic Data Processing Corp. and Punch Card Data Processing. Both firms had headquarters in Philadelphia. "Kathryn Lawlor Shook of Montgomery County Circuit Court, Maryland. S~ In ruling on the motion to dismiss, filed by attorneys for Computer Dynamics Corp. of Silver Spring, Md., after a week of testimony by C-E-I-R, Inc. of Arlington,Va., Judge Shook ruled that the former employees of the corporation "took no knowledge with them that was the employer's property", and "no secret methods or formula" and that C-E-I-R had "no proprietary rights in business from the United States Government". THE STANDARD REGISTER CO. -- RAYTHEON CO. Standard Register Co •• Dayton, Ohio, and Raytheon Company's Equipment Division, Waltham," Mass., have agreed that Standard Register will be the sales and service organization for data communications equipment manufactured by Raytheon. The Communications and Data Processing Operation of the Equipment Division of Raytheon will supply design and production. Standard Register will provide distribution and marketing knOW-how. Raytheon also will supply design and assembly for installations that are partially custom-built by use of Raytheon's line of off-the-shelf digital building blocks. NEW NATIONWIDE NETWORK OF EDP CENTERS o As. plied sis. large the p examp the s ca I s fects the s caUSE is t< to tt tram area~ Automated Procedures Corp., New York, has begun a nation-wide network of electronic data processing centers by acquiring a California firm, Automaton Business Machine Service. The new west coast subsidiary will be called A.D.P. Sales & Service Corp. It was obtained through an exchange of stock; no cash was involved; the amount of stock was not disclosed. fere rent] Elect toriE A.P.C. plans to set up or purchase EDP centers in San Francisco. Seattle, Dallas, St. Louis, Chicago, Boston, and Atlanta during 1962 and 1963. suI t< via SYStE tron: tran: Tele] ling. The newly formed company specializes in data processing projects of all sizes and types. Offices are located at the Southeast corner of Broad and Vine Sts., Philadelphia, Pa. SUIT AGAINST COMPUTER DYNAMICS CORPORATION DISMISSED \ V Dismissal of the suit by C-E-I-R, Inc., to enjoin the Computer Dynamics Corp. from seeking to do business with its former or prospective clients was granted by Judge 20B COMPUTERS and AUTOMA TION for March, 1962 CO] s N SKIRMISH OVER A COMPUTER-TOINERTIAL-PLATFORM INTERPRETER )NS Undaunted, the advocates of the new method pressed ahead, conducted detailed studies and laboratory investigations to nullify all objections and verified the complete feasibility of their proposed scheme. iere uto- uter 870 d of !dict hese s we n of .uto~rom real l Be IIlIla Ie >r ~ : Ie age, reference supply voltage, fiIter capacitor leakage and stability, filter lags, drum speed variation, and signal line ground currents. 'What is the best way to implement the digital-to-analog conversion circuitry required to convert binary incremental signals from a digital computer to precise d.c. voltages for gyro torquing in an airborne tactical data system? This was a problem faced by Litton data systems engineers. Several engineers who had participated in the development of an earlier navigation buffer employing the digital servo technique were strongly inclined towards playing it safe by adopting an identical approach. To permit the navigation system to sustain the longer flights required under the new program, they proposed engineering greater accuracy into the existing buffer. Somehow, they felt, the additional requirements for lesser weight and volume could also be met. Preliminary investigation revealed that this scheme would require at least 20 pounds of hardware. Feeling that a better way could be found, other/engineers studied alternate approaches and finally proposed a scheme for generating d.c. gyro torquing voltages scaled according to width-modulated pulses linearly related to computer word length. This approach appeared to hold promise of an accuracy of at least 1 part in 4000 ( 0.025 % ), which was specified for two of the required eight signals (six for the inertial subsystem; two for the cockpit display system). The pulse width modulation/ demodulation method also appeared to require far less hardware than would the digital servo technique because of the elimination of heavy electromechanical components. Skeptics were quick to point out that the specified precision would be impossible to obtain in view of errors inherent in pulse-width modulation, delays and rise times in the precision switch, switch offset volt- ), N ow functioning as part of a tactical data system installed in a carrierbased aircraft, this eight-signal navigation buffer is packaged on five 3" x 3" cards and two small assemblies. Weight and volume are about one-fifth of that required for a digital servo type of buffer. More recently, new packaging techniques have enabled reduction of the buffer unit by an additional 40% to two cards and two assemblies without degrading accuracy. Litton management recognizes the value of results stimulated by healthy controversy. Security and proprietary restrictions preclude our discussing current activities, but new programs offering many new technical challenges are now being conducted. And Litton continues to encourage an environment in which engineers can ]Jropose and pursue other than safe approaches to problems. If you've been frustrated in your attempts to follow through on new approaches to digital data handling and display functions, try writing H. Laur, Litton Systems, Inc., Data Systems Division, 6700 Eton Avenue, Canoga Park, California; 01' telephone DIamond 6-4040. An Equal Opportunity Employer ,.. rs i- .... ~ DATA SYSTEMS DIVISION ....l1lI LITTON SYSTEMS, INC . A DIVISION OF LITTON INDUSTRIES DATA HANDLING & DISPLAY SYSTEMS. COMPUTER SYSTEMS. MODULAR DISPERSED CONTROL SYSTEMS "II., COMPUTERS fi11(1 AUTOMATION for March, 1962 Kibhi Na TCI Rci Nc PP, Th CYBERNATION: THE SILENT CONQUEST Donald N. Michaels Washington, D. C. wllic\ CXpCI cent Thc Thco Dcsig Lers (] crcno agcm furth an ir Russ( Op COl Introduction Hoth optimists and pessimists often claim that automation is simply the latest stage in the evolution of technological means for removing the burdens of work. The assertion is misleading. There is a very good possibility that automation is so different in degree as to be a profound difference in kind, and that it will pose unique problems for society, challenging our basic values and the ways in which we ex press and enforce them. * In order to understand what both the differences and the problems are and, even more, will be, we have to know something of the nature and use of automation and computers. There are two important classes of devices. One class, usually referred to when one speaks of "automation," is made up of devices that automatically perform sensing and motor tasks, replacing or improving on human capacities for performing these functions. The second class, usually referred to when one speaks of "computers," is composed of cievices that perform, very rapidly, routine or complex logical and decision-making tasks, replacing or improving on human capacities for performing these functions. Using these machines does not merely involve replacing men by having machines do tasks that men did before. It is, as John Diebold says, a way of "thinking as much as it is a way of doing .... It is no longer necessary to think in terms of individual machines, or even in terms of groups of machines; instead, for the first time, it is practical to look at an entire production or information-handling process as an integrated system and not as a series of individual steps."l For example, if the building trades were to be automated, it would not mean inventing machines to do the various tasks now done by men; rather, buildings would be redesigned so that they could be buil t by machines. One might invent an automatic bricklayer, but it is more likely that housing would be designed so that bricks would not be laid. AutoIII a l ion of the electronics industry was not brought *This paper makcs the following assumptions in looking on the next twenty years or so: 1) international relations will derive fwm the same general conditions that pertain today; 2) the weapons systems industries will continue to support a major share of our economy; 3) major discoveries will be made and applied in other technologies, including psychology and medicine; 4) trends in megalopolis living and in population growth will continue; 5) no major shifts in underlying social attitudes and in public and private goals wil1 take place. 2(j COl w~ It is not often that a report is published on computers and automation (combined into the one word "cybernation") that is promptly mentioned and discussed in a number of newspapers, and treated by an editorial in the "New York Times" entitled "Is Man Obsolete?" (Jan. 30, 1962) But the Center for the Study of Democratic Institutions, Santa Barbara, Calif. (an activity of the Fund for the Republic), has published "Cybernation: The Silent Conquest," a report to it by Donald N. Michaels. He is director of planning and programs of the Peace Research Institute, Washington, D. C., and was formerly a consultant to UNESCO, the Department of Defense, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. And the report has received widespread attention and comment. The report is interesting and important, and relates to computers. The editors of "Computers and Automation" do not by any means agree with all the statements made in the report. But we do believe it is highly desirable that its ideas be considered and argued, and so we reprint it-in full rather than in part. about through the invention of automatic means for wiring circuits but through the invention of essentially wireless-i.e.) printed-circuits (though today there are automatic circuit wirers as well). The two classes of devices overlap. At one pole are the automatic producers of material objects and, at the other, the sophisticated analyzers and interpreters of complex data. In the middle zone are the mixed systems, in which computers control complicated processes, such as the operations of an oil refinery, on the basis of interpretations that they make of data automatically fed to them about the environment. Also in this middle zone are those routine, automatic, data-processing activities which provide men with the bases for controlling, or at least understanding, what is happening to a particular environment. Processing of social security data and making straightCOMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for l\farch. 19fi2 PP, Th optin LGPgram faster optin of us Peter: Op SOl YOI $9.' Th syster Lo pr discu: soluti Systel Varia "App "Opti Systel Cllsse5 "The cover, ences Alt, ] pUi HI 19~ Fiv latin~ arc h vey ( DifIel thone tronil chinir in Li of A dude diccs. Willi: Lm an( nOI I, . Th ical : citin~ nine trolvolve Is U Conti Jlrocc s)'lIIh jec\ i COlli) Ins 47 sct '1'\1 c:o:\ CONTENTS T \lith )eriight ign, tery ook, ling exjng, lugh s of s of this and ; no RE 11111" 11, H, III H- II- if 1111 ... INTRODUCTION THE ADVANTAGES OF CYBERNATION THE I)IH)ULEMS OF CYBERNATION UNEI\IPLOYI\IENT AND EMPLOYl\JENT Blue-Collar Adults Service Industries Middle Management Overworked Professionals Un tra ined Adolescen ts SOllie Proposed Solutions ADDITIONAL LEISURE Leisure Class One Leisure Class Two Leisure Class Three Leisure Class Four DECISIONS AND PUBLIC OPINION Privileged Information The Inevitability of Ignorance Personnel and Personalities Mass vs_ the Individual Decisions for Business THE CONTROL OF CYBERNATION TIME AND PLANNING EDUCATION: OCCUPATIONS AND ATTITUDES A MORATORIUM ON CYBERNATION? CONTROL: PUBLIC OR PRIVATE? AFTER THE TAKE-OVER forward tabulations of census information are examples of thcse activities. * Cybernated systems perform with a precision and a rapidity unmatched in humans. They also perform in ways that would be impractical or impossible for humans to duplicate. They can be built to detect and correct errors in their own performance and to indicate to men which of their components are producing the error. They can make judgments on the basis of instructions programmed into them. They can remember and search their memories for appropriate data, which either has been programmed into them along with their instructions or has been acquired in the process of manipulating new data. Thus, they can learn on the basis of past experience with their environmcnt. They can receive information in more codes and sensory modes than men can. They are beginning to perceive and to recognize. As a result of these characteristics, automation is being used to make and roll steel, mine coal, manufacture engine blocks, weave cloth, sort and grade everything from oranges to bank checks. More versatile automatic fabricators are becoming available, too: ({U. S. Industries announced . . . that it had develoj}(:d what was termed the first geneml-purpose autoJ/lation machine available to manufacturers *In ordcr to eliminate the awkwardness of repeating the words "automation" and "computers" each time we wish to refer to both at the same time, and in order to avoid the semantic difIicuI ties involved in using one term or the other to mean both ends of thc continuum, we invent the term "cybernation" to refer to /JoII, automation and computers. The word is legitimate at least to the extent that it derives from "cybernetics," a term invented Ily Norbert '''icner to lllean the processes of communication and control in lIlan and machines. He derived it from the Greek word for "steersman." The theory and practice of cybernetic~ unckrlie all systematic design and application of automation and computers. CO:MPUTERS mul AUTOMATION for March, 1962 as standard (oU-the-shelf' hardware . . . . The new Jnachine, called a TransfeRobot, sells for $2,500 . ... The rVestclox Company of La Salle) Ill., has been using a Tral1sfeRo/Jot to oil clock asselnblies as they pass Oil a convey01' bell. The machine oils eight precision bearings simultaneously in a second. At the Underwood Corporation tyjJcwriter plant in IJartford, tile robot jJic/{s UjJ, transfers and places a small typewriter cOlllj}()ncnt into (l close-fitting nest for an auto1llatic lI/(u:ltinc oj}(:rati01l. In an autornobile plant, the device feeds j}(lrtly fabricated parts of a steering assembly to (l trilluning press and controls the press. The device consists basically of an arm and actuator that can be fitted with many types of fingers and jaws. All are controlled by a self-contained electronic brain.":!' At the other end of the continuum, computers are being used rather regularly to analyze market portfolios for brokers; compute the best combination of crops and livestock for given farm conditions; design and "fly" under typical and extreme conditions rockets and airplanes before they are built; design, in terms of costs and traffic-flow characteristics, the appropriatc angles and grades for complex traffic interchanges; kecp up-to-date inventory records and print new stock orders as automatically computed rates of sales and inventory status indicate. Computers have also been programmed to wri te mediocre TV dramas (by manipulating segments of the plot), write music, translate tolerably if not perfectly from one language to another, and simulate some logical brain processes (so that the machine goes about solving puzzles-and making mistakes in the process-in the ways people do). Also, computers are programmed to play elaborate "games" by themselves or in collaboration with human beings. Among other reasons, these games are played to understand and plan more efficiently for the conduct of wars and the procedures for industrial and business aggrandizement. Through such games, involving a vast number of variablcs, and contingencies within which these variables act and interact, the bcst or most likely solutions to complex problems are obtained. The utility and the applicability of computers are being continually enhanced. For cxample, after a few hours of training, non-specialists can operate the smaller computers without the aid of programmers simply by plugging in pre-recordcd instruction tapes that tell the computer how to do specific tasks. Instruction-tape libraries can supply pre-programmed computer directions for everything from finding the cube root of a number to designing a bridge. When the machine is through with one task, its circuits can be easily cleared so tha I a new set of pre-programmed instructions can be plllgged in by its businessman operator. But the capahilities of computers already extend well beyond evell I hese applications. Much successful work has hecll dOllc 011 computers that can program themselves. For cxamplc, they are beginning to operate the way ma II a ppcars to when he is exploring ways of solving a lloVel problem. That is, they apply and then modify, as appropriate, previous experiences with and methods of solution for what appear to be relatc(l problems. Some of the machines show origi- 27 nality and unpredictability. To take one example from a recent paper of Norbert Wiener: "The present level of these learning machines is that they playa" fair amateur game at chess but that in checkers they can show a marked superiority to the player who has programmed them after from 10 to 20 playing hours of working and indoctrination. They thus most definitely escape from the completely effective control of the man who has made them. Rigid as the repertory of factors may be which they are in a position to take into consideration} they do unquestionably-and so say those who have j)/ayed with them-show originality} not mady in their tactics} which may be quite 1l11Iorcseen} but even in the detailed weighting of their stmtegy.":: Another example of a machine the behavior of which is not completely controllable or predictable is the Perceptron, designed by Dr. Frank Rosenblatt. This machine can learn to recognize what it has seen before and to teach itself generalizations about what it recognizes. It can also learn to discriminate, and thereby to identify shapes similar to those it has seen before. Future versions will hear as well as see. It is not possible to predict the degree and quality of recognition that the machine will display as it is learning. It is designed to learn and discriminate in the same way that it is believed man may learn and discriminate; it has its own pace and style of learning, of refining its discriminations, and of making mistakes in the process. It is no fantasy, then, to be concerned with the implica tions of the thinking machines. There is every reason to believe that within the next two decades machines will be available outside the laboratory that will do a credible job of original thinking, certainly as good thinking as that expected of most middlelevel people who are supposed to "use their minds." There is no basis for knowing where this process will stop, nor, as Wiener has pointed out, is there any comfort in the assertion that, since man built the machine, he will always be smarter or more capable than it is. "It may be seen that the result of a programming technique of (cybernation) is to remove from the Inind of the designer and operator an effective understanding of many of the stages by which the machine comes to its conclusions and of what the real tactical illtentions of many of its operations may be. This is highly relevant to the problem of our being able to foresee undesired consequences outside the frame of the strategy of the game while the machine is still i11 ([ction and while intervention on our 1)art may pre1Jent the occurrence of these consequences. Here it is necessary to realize thai human action is a feedback action. To avoid a disastrous consequence) it is not enough that some action on our part should be sufficient to clwnge the course of the machine} because it is quite possible that we lack information on which to base C011sideration of SItch an action."4 The capabilities and potentialities of these devices are unlimited. They contain extraordinary implications for the emancipation and enslavement of mankind. 2R The opportunities for man's enhancement through the benefits of cybernation are generally more evident and more expected, especially in view of Ollr proclivity to equate technological advances with progress and happiness. In the words of the National Association of lVIanufacturers: "For the expanding} dynamic eC0l101l1Y of America} the sky is indeed the limit. Now more than ever we must have confidence in America's capacity to grow. Guided by electronics} powered by atotnic energy} geared to the smooth} effortless workings of automation} the magic carpet of our free econorny heads for distant and undreamed horizons. .Just going along for the ride will be the biggest thrill on earth!"ri But the somber and complex difficulties produced by cybernation, which already are beginning to plague some aspects of our society and economy, are only beginning to be recognized. Thus, although this paper will describe, first, the advantages of cybernation, which make its ever expanding application so compelling, it will, on the whole, emphasize the less obvious, sometimes acutely uncomfortable aspects of this development with which we must successfully contend if we are to enjoy the benefits of both cybernation and democracy. The Advantages of Cybernation In recent years deteriorating sales prospects, rising production costs, increased foreign competition, and lower profits have led business management to turn to our national talent for technological invention as the most plausible means of reducing costs and increasing productivity, whether the product is an engine block or tables of sales figures. And the government, faced with the need to process and understand rapidly increasing masses of numerical facts about the state of the nation and the world, is already using 521 computers and is" the major customer for more of them. What are the advantages of cybernated systems that make government and private enterprise turn to them to solve problems? In the first place, in a competitive society a successfully cybernated organization often has economic advantages over a competitor using people instead of machines. As U. S. News and Tl' orld Report says: "In one line of business after another} the trend is the same. Companies are spending millions of dollars to mechanize their operations} boost output and cut costs. . . . Says an official of a big electrical company: (It is no longer a question of whether or not to automate) but rather it is how far to go and how fast to proceed. If you don't} your competition will.' "6 Not only must many organizations automate to compete, but the same principle probably holds for competing nations. 'J\Te are by no means the only semicybernated society. Europe and Russia are well under way, and their machines and products compete with ours here and in the world market. The U.S.S.R. is making an all-out effort to cybernate as much of its planning-economic-industrial operation as it can. In the second place, reducing the number of personnel in an organization reduces the magnitude COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for ~rarcll. \%2 July qr ve co R( June Cl; y( N June an co Vr June N( H( Jar July cit He Br Rc Augl AI Sn Aug. Cc St; co 14 Aug. In C} 14 Sept. W briel publ cant proc whic We ~ form copy entl" publ catic pric( If y( suer, men mati TonI( &: W. An I !IIi Till sigll of III; di~clI~ (o\CI'~ CO :\1 IS :ontact .film ldu~ch., ldu~ch., ;aird 1. -51, )Cla- orf- dith [etal vIar.tact rica, ing:1Ons lfereA. ,tion ;ton, nter UniSys- Ill. ; ence St., uta'aris, :on- liza- eh) , . of need Hcr, conUn i- Hill, enee taet En- :onOtis . of .Iieal otor mit- I La 1!l(j~ of management's human relations tasks, whether facilities efficiently in relation to the accessibility of these be coping with over-long coffee breaks, union raw products, markets, transportation, and needed negotiations, human errors, or indifference. (or cheaper) human and material resources. Distance is no longer a barrier to control and coordination. In the third place, cybernation permits much greater The computers that control automated processes need rationalization of managerial activities. The compunot be near the factories nor the data-processing ters can produce information about what is happencomputers near their sources of information or users ing now, as well as continuously up-dated information if other considerations are more pressing. Widely disabout what will be the probable consequences of persed installations can be coordinated and controlled specific decisions based on present and extrapolated [rom still another place, and the dispersed units can circulllstances. The results are available in a multiinteract with each other and affect one another's pertude of detailed or simplified displays in the form formance as easily, in many cases, as if they were all in of words, tables of figures, patterns of light, growth the same place. and decay curves, dial readings, etc. In many situaIn the fifth place, some degree of cybernation is tions, built-in feedback monitors the developing situanecessary to meet the needs of our larger population tion and deals with routine changes, errors, and and to maintain or increase the rate of growth of the needs with little or no intervention by human beings. Gross National Product. An estimated 80,000,000 This frees management for attention to more basic persons will be added to our population in the next duties. There is, for example, twenty years. Beyond increases in productivity per " • • • ([11 autornatic lathe . .. which gauges each part man hour to be expected from the projected 20 per as it is jJroduced and auturnatically resets the cutcent growth in the labor force during the same period, ting tools to compensate for tool wear. In addition, productive growth will have to be provided by mawhcn the cutting tools have been worn down to a chines. certain jJredetennined limit, the machine automatiIf the cri teria are control, understanding, and cally 1"(~places thern with sharp tools. The parts profits, there are strong reasons why government and are automatically loaded onto the machine and are business should want to, and indeed would have to, autolllatically unloaded as they are finished. These expand cybernation as rapidly as they can. The verlathes am be operated for 5 to 8 hours without atsatility of computers and automation is becoming tentioll, except for an occasional check to mahe better understood all the time by those who use them, sure t//(lt parts are being delivered to the loading even though, as with the human brain, most present mec/l(lnism."7 users are far from applying their full potential. Cheap Another example, combining built-in feedback with and general purpose computers or modular coma display capability, adds further illumination: ponents applicable to many types of automatic pro"The Grayson-Robinson apparel chain, which has duction and decision-making are now being manumore titan 100 stores throughout the country, refactured. In good part, they are cheap because they ceivcs j)fint-punch tags daily from its stores and themselves are produced by automated methods. converts them to full-size punchcards. The comTechniques for gathering the field data that serves as plete ll1erchandise and inventory control function the "inputs" to the machines are being refined and is t!/{:n handled on a curnputer. vVhat styles are to themselves automated or semi-automated. For exbe jJro('(:ssed first are determined at the computer ample, a large shoe distributor is planning to attach center. During any given week about 60 per cent uf a pre-punched IBlV! card to each shoe box. vVhen a the sales data are received and sUlnrnarized. On sale is made, the card is returned to a central facility the following Ai onday morning the remaining 40 to guide inventory adjustment, reordering, and sales per t£:llt uf the sales data are received. The cUJrI,recording alld analysis. Techniques for quickly imputer ('(171 then begin running style repurts imrneplementi ng the "outpu ts" from the machines are also diately after the tickets have been cunverted to being invented. lVlethods are being developed for cards. ny this time the cornpany can run liP stylc systematically establishing the precise kind and dereports by departments and price lincs in ordcr to gree of cybernation required in specific situations as obtain the necessary merchandising in/ormatioll. well as the changes needed in the rest of the instituThc (:Iltire reporting job is completed by Wednesall inactive stockpiles."8 tion or organization using cybernation. day a/Lanoon of each week, including reports on These are the advantages for management, for govFreeillg management from petty distractions in ernment, and for those parts of the work force whose these ways permits more precise and better substantistatus has been enhanced because of cybernation. ated decisions, whether they have to do with business But as cybernation advances, new and profound probstrategy, government economic policy, equipment syslems will arise for our society and its values. Cybertem plalllling, or military strategy and tactics. Thus, natioll presages changes in the social system so vast management in business or government can have and so difl'erent from those with which we have tradimuch hetter control both over the system as it opertionally wrestled that it will challellge to their roots a~es alld over the introduction of changes into future ollr current perceptiolls about tlte viability of our operatiolls. Indeed, the changes themselves may be way of life. 1I' our democratic system has a chance to planned in conformity with, and guided by, a strategy survive at all, we shall need far more understanding that is derived from a computer analysis of the fuof the consequences of cybernation. Even the job of ture environment. simply preserving a going society will take a level of In the fourth place, cyhernation allows government planning far exceeding any of our previous experiand industry Illuch greater freedom in locating their ".• J......~ ences with centralized control. co~rp{JTERS alit! A lJTO~L\ TIO~ for March, 1%2 2!) 'I I • I 1 The balance of this paper will point out some of the implications of cybernation that we must recognize in our task of developing a society and institutions in which man may be allowed to reach his full ca paci tics. The Problems of Cybernation Unemployment and Employment ADULTS "In the highly automated chemical industry, the number of production jobs has fallen 3% since 1956 while output has soared 27%. Though steel capacity has increased 20% Sl11ce 1955, the llwnber of men needed to operate the industry's jJ!ants-even at full capacity-has dropped 17,000. Auto employment slid from a peak of 746,000 in boom 1955 to 614,000 in November. ... Since the meat industry's 1956 employment peak, 28,000 workers h{l1}(~ lost their jobs despite a production increase of 3%. Bakery jobs have been in a steady decline from 174,000 in 1954 to 163,000 last year. On the farm one man can grow enough to feed 24 people; back ill 1949 he could feed only 15."11 Further insight into the problem of declining employment for the blue-collar worker comes from union statements to the effect that the number of these employees in manufacturing has been reduced by 1,500,000 in the last six years. As one example from the service industries, automatic elevators have already displaced 40,000 operators in New York. Another disturbing aspect of the blue-collar displacement problem is its impact on employment opportunities for Negroes. There is already an increasingly lopsided N egro-to-white unemployment ratio as the dock, factory, and mine operations where Negroes have hitherto found their steadiest employment are cybernated. This, plus the handicaps of bias in hiring and lack of educational opportunity, leaves Negroes very few chances to gain new skills and new jobs. Continued widespread and disproportionate firings of Negroes, if accompanied by ineffectual reemployment methods, may well produce a situation that will increase disenchantment abroad and encourage discontent and violence here. SERVICE INDUSTRIES It is commonly argued that, with the growth of population, there will always be more need for people in the service industries. The assumption is that these industries will be able to absorb and displaced, retrained blue-collar labor force; that automation will not seriously displace people who perform service functions; and that the demand for engineers and scientists will be so great as to provide employment for any number of the young people who graduate with engineering training. (Indeed, some of this demand is expected to arise from the needs of cybernetic systems themselves.) It is all very well to speak glowingly of the coming growth in the service industries and the vast opportunities for well-paid jobs and job-upgrading that these activities will provide as blue-collar opportunities diminish. But is the future as bright and as simple as this speculation implies? In the first place, service activities will also tend to displace workers by becoming self-service, by becoming cybernated, and by being eliminated. Consider the following data: The U. S. BLUE-COLLAR 30 Census Bureau was able to use fifty statisticians 1Il 1960 to do the tabulations that required 4,100 in 1950. Even where people are not being fired, service industries can now carryon a vastly greater amount of business without hiring additional personnel; for example, a 50 per cent increase in the Bell System's volume of calls in the last ten years with only a 10 per cent increase in personnel. Automation frequently permits the mass production of both cheap items and items of adequate to superior quality. It frequently uses methods of fabrication that makes replacement of part or all of the item more efficient or less bother than repairing it. As automation results in more leisure time, certainly some of this time will be used by more and more doit-yourselfers to replace worn-out or faulty components in home appliances that are now repaired by paid service personnel. Nor is it clear that repairing computers will be big business. Computer design is in the direction of microminiaturized components: when there is a failure in the system, the malfunctioning part is simply unplugged or pulled out, much as a drawer from a bureau, and replaced by a new unit. Routine procedures determine which component is malfunctioning, so routine that the larger computers now indicate where their own troubles are, so routine that small computers could be built to troubleshoot others. This does not mean that clever maintenance and repair people will be completely unnecessary, but it does mean that a much more careful estimate is re· quired of the probable need for these skills in home· repair work or in computer-repair work. Drip-dry clothes, synthetic fabrics, plus self-service dry and wet cleaning facilities, probably will outmode this type of service activity. Identification by fingerprints, instantly checked against an up-to-date nation-wide credit rating (performed by a central computer facility), could eliminate all service activities associated with processing based on identification (for example, bank tellers). A computer that can identify fingerprints does not yet exist, but there is no reason to believe it will not be invented in the next two decades. If people cost more than machines-either in money or because of the managerial effort involved-there will be growing incentives to replace them in one way or another in most service activities where they perform routine, predefined tasks. It is possible, of course, that eventually people will not cost more than machines, because there may be so many of them competing for jobs, including a growing number of working women. But will service people be this cheap? As union strength is weakened or threatened through reductions in blue-collar membership, unions will try, as they have already begun to do, to organize the white-collar worker and other service personnel more completely in order to help them to protect their jobs from managements willing to hire those who, having no other work to turn to, would work for less money. Former blue-collar workers who, through retraining, will join the ranks of the service group may help to produce an atmosphere conducive to such unionizing. But how many service organizations will accept the complications of union negotiations, strikes, personnel COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for ~farch, 19fi2 ( NCR throu The N, C()~I tity[or ~eep prohod one :es." the atly Iject that tant of I of !lese will que it is 1 s, cnts, ~, in 1 in- lIlall thor arily and ther in[mId pu- '(lJ/z- services, and higher wages in preference to investing ill cybernation? It is possible that as automation and computers are applied more widely an attitude of indifference to personalized service will gradually develop. People will not demand it and organizations will not provide it. The family doctor is disappearing; clerks of all sorts in stores of all sorts are disappearing as well. For example: "The R. H. iWacy Co. is trying out its first electronic sales girl. This machine is smart enough to disj)(~nse 36 different items in 10 separate styles and sizes. It accepts one- and five-dollar bills in addition to coins and returns the correct change plus rejecting counterfeit currency."10 People either get used to this or, as in the case of the self-service supermarket, seem to prefer it. It is already the rare sales clerk who knows the "real" differences between functionally similar items; indeed, in most stores, sales clerks as such are rare. Thus, the customer is almost forced to do much of his own selecting and to know at least as much about or to be at least as casual about the differences between competing items as the clerk. As automation increases, the utility of the sales clerk will further diminish. With some products, automation will permit extensive variation in design and utility. With others, especially if our society follows its present course, automation will encourage the endless proliferation of items only marginally different from one other. In either event there is no reason to believe that the clerk or salesman will become more knowledgeable about an even larger variety of competing items. Finally, it is obvious that the remaining tasks of the clerk, such as recording the sale and insuring that the item is paid for, can be cybernated without difficulty. The greater the indifference to personalized service by both buyers and sellers, the greater the opportunity, of course, to remove human judgments from the system. Cybernation may well encourage acceptance to such depersonalization, and this, in turn, would encourage further reductions in opportunities [or service jobs. MIDDLE i\IANAGEMENT The blue-collar worker and the relatively menial service worker will not be the only employment victims of cybernation. " ... llro(ldly, our prognostications are along the following lines: ul) Information technology should move the boundary between planning and performance upward . .lust as planning was taken from the hourly worher and given to the industrial engineer, we now (:x jJect it to be taken from a number of middle managers and given to as yet largely nonexistent specialists: {operation researchers: perhaps, or {organizational analysts.' Jobs at today's middle-management level will become highly structured. Much tnon: of the worh will be programmed, i.e., covered by sets of operating rules governing the day-to-day decisions that (lre made. ({2) Corrd(ltitJely, we jJredict that large industrial organizatiol1s will recentralize, that top managers will la/u~ on an ever larger proportion of the inno1Jatillg, /Jlalllling, and other {creative' functions than they //(Ill(: 110W. COMPUTERS (I1ul AUTOMATION for March, 1962 ((3) A radical reorganization of middle-management levels should occur with certain classes of middlemanagement jobs moving downward in status and compensation (because they will require less autonomy and shill), while other classes move upward into the top-management group. ({4) 'Ve suggest, too, that the line separating the top from, tlte tniddle of the organization will be drawn more clearly and impenetrably than ever, much lihe the line drawn in the last few decades between hourly wor/((:rs and first-line supeTVisors. ({ . . . Inforlllation technology promises to allow fewer jJeojJ/e to do more work. The more it can reduce tlte nllmber of middle managers, the more top managers will be willing to try it . . . . One can imagi1le lIl(ljor jJ'~'Ychological problems arising from the dej)(:rsonalization of relationships within management (111£1 the greater distance between peuple at diUer(:nt levels . ... In particular, we may have to reajJjJl"(Iise our traditional notions about the worth of the individual as opposed to the organization, (II/(/ about the mobility rights of young men on the 111 ({/{e. This hind of inquiry may bt; painfully difficult, but will be increasingly necessary."ll As cybernation moves into the areas now dominated by middle management in government and in business-and this move is already beginning-growing numbers of middle managers will find themselves displaced. Perhaps the bulk of displaced members of the blue-collar and service work force might be trained "up" or "over" to other jobs with, generally speaking, little or no decline in status. But the middle manager presents a special and poignant problem. Where can he go? To firms that are not as yet assigning routine liaison, analysis, and minor executive tasks to machines? This may take care of some of the best of the displaced managers and junior executives, but if these firms are to have a future, the chances are that they will have to computerize eventually in order to compete. To the government? Again, some could join it, but the style and format of governmental operations may require readjustments that many junior executives would be unable to make. And, in any case, governmen t too, as we have seen, is turning to computers, and it is entirely possible that much of the work of its middle management will also be absorbed by the computers. Up into top management? A few, of course, but necessarily only a few. Into the service end of the organization, such as sales? Some here, certainly, if they have the talent for such work. If computers and automation lead to an even greater, efflorescence of marginally differentiated articles and services, there will be a correspondingly greater emphasis on sales in an effort to compete successfully. But can this be an outlet for a truly sig-nificant portion of the displaced? And at what salary? Overseas appoin tments in nations not yet IIsi ng- cy berna tion at the management level? ,\g-ain, for a few, but only for those with the special ability to fit inl<> a different culture at the corresponding level from which they came. Middle management is the group in the society with the most intensive emotional drive for succeS5 and status. Their family and social life is molded by these needs, as the endless literature on life in subur31 bia and exurbia demonstrate. They stand to be deeply disturbed by the threat and fact of their replacement by machines. One wonders what the threat will do to the ambitions of those who will still be students and who, as followers of one of the pervasive American dreams, will have aspired to the role of middle manager "011 the way up." \I\Tith the demise or downgrading of this group, changes in advertising, or at least changes in the be expected. These people, although they are not the only consumers of products of the sort advertised in The New Yorker, Holiday, and the like, are certainly among the largest of such consumers. They are the style-setters, the innovators, and the experimenters with new, quality products. With their loss of status and the loss of their buying power, one can imagine changes in advertising, or at least changes in the "taste" that this advertising tries to generate. It is possible that the new middle elite, the engineers, operations researchers, and systems analysts, will simply absorb the standards of the group they will have replaced. But they may be different enough in outlook and motives to have different styles in consumption. OVERWORKED PROFESSIONALS There are service jobs, of course, that require judgments about people by people. (We are not including here the "personalized service" type of salesmanship.) The shortage of people with these talents is evidenced by the 60-hour and more work-weeks of many professionals. But these people are the products of special education, special motives, and special attitudes that are not shared to any great degree by those who turn to blue-collar or routine service tasks. Increasing the proportion of citizens with this sort of professional competence would require systematic changes in attitudes, motives, and levels of education, not to mention more teachers, a professional service already in short supply. Alterations of this magnitude cannot be carried out overnight or by casual advertising campaigns or minor government appropriations. It is doubtful indeed, in our present operating context, that they can be done fast enough to make a significant difference in the employment picture for professional services in the next decade or two. Values become imbedded early in life. They are subject to change, to be sure, but we are not, as a democratic society, adept at or inclined to change them deliberately and systematically. Even if the teachers and the appropriate attitudes already existed, service needs at the professional level might not be great enough to absorb a large share of the potentially unemployed. Much of the work that now takes up the time of many professionals, such as doctors and lawyers, could be done by computersjust as much of the time of teachers is now taken up by teaching wha t could be done as well by machines. The development of procedures for medical diagnosis by machine is proceeding well. A completely automatic analysis of data can produce just as good a diagnosis of brain malfunction as that done by a highly trained doctor. Cybernated diagnosis will be used in conjunction with improved multi-purpose antibiotics and with microminiaturized, highly sensitive, and accurate telemetering equipment (which can be swallowed, imbedded in the body, or affixed to it) in order to detect, perhaps at a distance, signifi:12 cant symptoms. I !! All of these developments are likely to change the nature of a doctor's time-consuming tasks. In the field of law successful codification, so that searches and evaluations can be automatic, as well as changes in legal procedures, will probably make the lawyer's work substantially different from what it is today, at least in terms of how he allocates his time. Computers probably will perform tasks like these because the shortage of professionals will he more acute at the time the computers acquire the necessary capabilities. By then, speeded-up data processing and interpretation will be necessary if professional services are to be rendered with any adequacy. Once the computers are in operation, the need for additional professional people may be only moderate, and those who are needed will have to be of very high calibre indeed. Probably only a small percentage of the population will have the natural endowments to meet such high requirements. A tour of the strongholds of science and engineering and conversations with productive scientists and engineers already lead to the conclusion that much of what now appears to be creative, barrier-breaking "research and development" is in fact routine work done by mediocre scientists and engineers. We lost sight of the fact that not everybody with dirty hands or a white coat is an Einstein or a Steinmetz. Many first-class scientists in universities will testify that one consequence of the increasingly large federal funds for research is that many more mediocre scientists doing mediocre work are being supported. No doubt for some time to come good use can be made by good professionals of battalions of mediocre professionals. But battalions are not armies. And sooner or later one general of science or engineering will be able to fight this war for knowledge more effectively with more push-buttons than with more intellectual foot-soldiers. UNTRAINED ADOLESCENTS ((Altogether the United States will need 13,500,000 more jobs in the Sixties merely to keep abreast of the expected growth in the labor force. This means an average of 25,000 new jobs each week, on top of those required to drain the reseruoir of present unemployment and to replace jobs made superfluous by improved technology. In the last year, despite the slackness of employment opportunities, 2,500,000 more people came into the job scramble than left it thTough death, age, sickness or voluntary withdrawal. This was more than double the 835,000 average annual growth in the working population in the last ten years. By the end of this decade, 3,000,000 youngsters will be starting their quest for jobs each year, as against 2,000,000 now. This almost automatically guarantees trouble in getting the over-all unemployment rate down to 4 per cent because the proportion of idleness among teen-age workers is always far higher than it is among their elders."1:1 The Labor Department estimates that 26,000,000 adolescents will seek work in the Sixties. If present performance is any indicator, in the decade ahead 30 per cent of adolescents will continue to drop out before completing high school and many who could go to college won't. The unemployment rate for such drop-outs is about 30 per cent now. Robert E. ]ffert, of the Department of Health, Education, and 'VelCOMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for ~Iarch. 1!l(;~ A cedil Exh: of ti one for ( strai read obje for; Hen sUPF N, as t5 5 til path unit for othe man 15 ti the ( to h uled "pos can to tl In mus plan exp( acti, pow ;t\'al If, slad pow the O(l 01 C()~I e) rl all )lem ) deecial Jject :able here Nark it to l the :akes :hart and each ificaIlach have ) acstill i tive ~lack )lan{S" rt or :here il1ile~reat ~)J1es. they ivity , 1!)G2 fare, concluded in a ] 958 study that approximately one-fourth of the students who enter college leave after their freshman year never to return. Figures compiled since then lead him to conclude that there has been no significant change, in spite of the N ational Defense Education Act, which was supposed to help reduce this figure. 14 If some figures recently given by James B. Conant turn out to be typical, at least one situation is much more serious than the average would imply. He found that in one of our largest cities, in an almost exclusively Negro slum of 125,000, 70 per cent of the boys and girls between 16 and 21 were out of school and unemployed. In another city, in an almost exclusively Negro slum, in the same age group, 48 per cent of the high school graduates were unemployed and 63 per cent of the high school drop-outs were unemployed. I5 These adolescents would in the normal course join the untrained or poorly trained work force, a work force that will be more and more the respository of un trainable or untrained people displaced from their jobs by cybernation. These adolescents will have the following choices: they can stay in school, for which they are unsuited either by motivation or by intelligence; they can seek training that will raise them out of the untrained work force; they can compete in the growing manpower pool of those seeking relatively unskilled jobs; or they can loaf. If they loaf, almost inevitably they are going to become delinquent. Thus, without adequate occupational outlets for these youths, cybernation may contribute substantially to further social disruption. Threatened institutions often try forcibly to repress groups demanding changes in the status quo. Imagine the incentives to use force that would exist in a nation beset by national and international frustrations and bedeviled by anarchic unemployed-youth movements. Imagine, too, the incentives to use force in view of the reserves of volunteer "police" made up of adults who can vent their own unemployment-based hostility in a socially approved way by punishing or disciplining these "children." A constructive alternative, of course, is to provide appropriate training for these young people in tasks that are not about to be automated. But this implies an elaborate, costly program of research and planning to recruit teachers, to apply advanced teaching machine methods as a supplement to teachers, and to stimulate presently unmotivated youngsters to learn. The program would also require intensive cooperation among business, labor, education, local social service agencies, and the government. And all this must begin now in order for it to be ready when it will be needed. None of this is easily met. Persuading drop-outs to stay in school will not be easy. Teachers will not be easy to recruit unless they are well paid. There is already a shortage of teachers. And let no one suggest that an easy source of teachers would be displaced workers. There is no reason to believe that they have the verbal and social facility to teach, and most of them wOllld have nothing to teach but skills that have become obsolete. Some, of course, might be taught to teach, thollgh this would add obvious complications to the whole effort. COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for March, 1962 Knowing what to teach will depend on knowing what types of jobs are likely to exist when the student finishes his training. This will require knowledge about the trends and plans of local industry, if that is where the youths are to work (and if that is where industry plans to stay!), and of industries in other localities, if the youths are willing to move. Such knowledge often does not exist in a rapidly changing world or, if it exists, may not be forthcoming from businesses more concerned with competition than with the frustrated "delinquents" of their community. As of now, in the words of Dr. Conant, "unemployment of youth is literally nobody's affair." SOME PROPOSED SOLUTIONS Retraining is often proposed as if it were also the cure-all for coping with adults displaced by cybernation as well as young people. In some circumstances it has worked well for some people, especially with office personnel who have been displaced by data-processing computers and have learned other office jobs, including servicing the computers. But in other cases, especially with poorly educated blue-collar workers, retraining has not always been successful, nor have new jobs based on that retraining been available. :Max Horton, Michigan'S Director of Employment Security, says: "'1 suppose that is as good as any way for getting rid of the unemployed-just keeping them in retraining. But how retrainable are the mass of these unskilled and semi-skilled 1£ 11 elll played? Two-thirds of them have less thau a high school education. Arc they illtaested in retraining? But most imporUIIII, is there a fob waiting for them when they have been retrained?' The new California SmithCollier Act retraining program drew only 100 applicants in six months."16 A. H. Raskin's survey of the situation leads him to conclude: "The upgrading task will be a difficult, and pel"haps impossible, one for those whose education and general background do not fit them for shilled work. The outlook is especially bleak for miners, laborers and other unskilled workers over 40, who already make up sllch a big chunk of the hard core of joblessness."17 . Moreover, management has not always been willing to institute retraining programs. People are either fired outright in some cases or, more often, simply are not rehired after a layoff. "Labor and management have been slow to face the problem over the bargaining table. Harry Bridges' West Coast longshoremen's union recently agreed to give shippers a free hand to mechanize cargo handling-in exchange for a guarantee of present jobs, plus early rdirelllent and liberal death benefits. In Cltimp;o this week, President Clark Kerr of tlte Ulli1ll:rsil), of California, one of the tOj) labor aOlloll/ists, will preside over a companY-U71iOll cOII/II/illa II/{:eting at Armour & Co. to draw u/J (I /J/(lll for lite rapidly automating meat industry. A sill/i/ar committee is at work at Kaiser Steel Co. nllt many authorities think such efforts are far too few, that management must do more. E. C. Schulze, acting area director of Ohio's stair: emjJloyment service, says: (I've yet to see an (:11/jJlo)'er's group willing to take a look at this jJrob33 lern and seek solutions. They refuse to recognize their responsibility. They talk about long-term trends-but nobody talks about the immediate jJroblem of jobless} needy people.' "18 The problem of retraining blue-collar workers is formidable enough. But, in view of the coming role of cybernation in the service industries, the retraining problem for service personnel seems insuperable. No one has seriously proposed what service tasks this working group could be retrained for-to say nothing of training them for jobs that would pay high enough wages to make them good consumers of the cornucopia of products manufactured by automation. Another proposal for coping with the unemployment-via-cybernation problem is shorter hours for the same pay. This approach is intended to maintain the ability of workers to consume the products of cybernation and, in the case of blue-collar workers, to maintain the strength of unions. This would retain the consumer purchasing capacity for x workers in those situations where the nature of the cybernation process is such that x men would do essentially the same work as x plus y men used to do. But when the task itself is eliminated or new tasks are developed that need different talents, shorter shifts clearly will not solve the problem. The latter conditions are the more likely ones as cybernation becomes more sophisticated. Proponents of cybernation claim that it should reduce the price of products by removing much of the cost of labor and increasing consumer demand. vVhether the price of beef, or milk, or rent will be reduced in phase with the displaced worker's lowered paycheck remains to be seen. So far this has not happened. \tVhether the price of TV sets, cars, refrigerators, etc., will be reduced substantially depends in part on how much product cost goes into larger advertising budgets aimed at differentiating the product from the essentially same one produced last year or from the practically identical one produced on some other firm's automated production line. An obvious solution to unemployment is a public works program. If our understanding of the direction of cybernation is correct, the government will probably be faced for the indefinite future with the need to support part of the population through public works. There is no dearth of public work to be done, and it is not impossible that so much would continue to be needed that an appropriately organized public works program could stimulate the economy to the point that a substantial portion of the work force could be re-absorbed into the private sector. That is, although the proportion of workers needed for any particular task will be reduced through the use of cybernation, the total number of tasks that need to be done could equal or exceed the absolute number of people available to do them. It is not known whether this si tuation would obtain for enough tasks in enough places so that the portion of the population working on public projects would be relatively small. However, if it should turn out that this felicitous state of affairs could be realized in principle, clearly it could only be realized and sustained if there were to be considerable and continuous centralized planning and control over financing, the 31 choice of public projects, and the places where they were to be done. If, for whatever reasons, this situation could not be achieved, the public works payroll would remain very large indeed. What would be the effects on the attitudes and aspirations of a society, and particularly of its leadership, when a significant part of it is overtly supported by governmental public works programs? ("Overtly" is used because much of the aerospace industry in particular and of the weapons systems industry in general is subsidized by the government right now: they literally live off cost plus fixed fee contracts, and there is no other comparable market for their products.) \Vhatever else the attitudes might be, they certainly would not be conducive to maintaining the spirit of a capitalistic economy. This shift in perspective may or may not be desirable, but those who think it would be undesirable should realize that encouraging the extension of cybernation, in the interests of free enterprise and better profits, may be self-defeating. The inherent flexibility of cybernated systems, which permits great latitude in their geographic location, is the inspiration for the proposal that if jobs are lost through cybernation, the unemployed could be moved to another area where jobs exist. It is said that a governmental agency similar to the Agricultural Resettlement Administration, which moved farmers from the Dust Bowl to cities, could be used. However, two important differences between that situation and this one would complicate this effort: the contemporary cause of the unemployment would not be the result of an act of God; and it is not immediately evident that these unemployed people could find jobs in other areas, which might be suffering from a similar plethora of useless workers. Herbert Striner has suggested that a more extreme approach would be to export blue-collar and whitecollar workers and their families to nations needing their talents. The problem of whether or how the salary differential might be made up is one of several difficul ties wi th this proposal. Yet, if such emigration could be carried out, it might be a better solution than letting the workers atrophy here. The economic history of former colonial powers and their colonization techniques indicate that "dumping" of excess personnel into foreign lands would not be a radically new innovation. Another possible long-run approach might be curtailment of the birth rate. In times of depression the rate falls off naturally-which may be the way the process would be accomplished here if enough people become unemployed or marginally employed (although the effects of the lowered birth rate would only follow after the economic and social changes had been made). Of course, the government could encourage birth control by reducing the income tax dependency deduction or by other tax means. Finally, there is the proposal to reduce the working population by increasing the incentives for early retirement. Government could do this by reducing the retirement age for social security, and unions and management could use their collective ingenuity to provide special retirement incentives. Naturally, this would increase the already large percentage of retired COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for March, 1962 IJ A tl Sam vela The offel prof OpP( brae face adrr wha est y COIn proc thcsi Herl you puti systc lnur At I atIn You tClll~ Clll11 Deer C()~(J esistcross ~, or ~ are :1 at latch :ated ents. I'uncI cir- prolocks lable At e no d in litry. lpon :s of y to fore, tems 11111- :ular Vestnent licon , the Is in 'aced nake s. In milthave nply l"Ove:cted HllCS IrIca- :e to · by !icon tiple ~s of lIellL of veld: are rL is Illes, hich l:ihle II ~l hie, 1I0W ; art. \%2 elderly people. Along with the other familiar problems associated with this group is the poignant one we shall face in more general form in the next section: how arc all these people to be kept happily occupied in their leisure? Whether any of these proposed solutions is adequate to the challenge of unemployment is not known to us or, we gather, to those who have proposed one solution or another. But even if, in principle, some combination of them would be adequate, in order to put them into effect a considerable change would be necessary in the attitudes and voting behavior of Congress and our tax-paying citizens. Preconceptions about the virtues and vices of work, inflation, the national debt, and government control run deep and shift slowly. Not all of these dire threats would come to pass, of COllrse, if cybernation reduced consumer buying power through unemployment and, thereby, the financial capability of industry and business to introduce or profit from cybernation. In this way we might all be saved from the adverse effects of unemployment from this source. But the economy would still be faced with those threats to its well-being which, as were pointed out earlier, make the need to cybernate so compelling. Cybernation is by nature the sort of process that will be introduced selectively by organization, industry, and locality. The ill-effects will be felt at first only locally and, as a result, will not be recognized by those who introduce it-and perhaps not even by the government-as a national problem with many serious implications for the whole social system. Also, because one of the chief effects of cybernation on employment is not to hire rather than to fire, the economic-social consequences will be delayed and will at any time be exacerbated or ameliorated by other economic and social factors such as the condition of our foreign markets, which also are being changed and challenged by European and Russian cybernation. By the time the adverse effects of cybernation are sufficiently noticeable to be ascribed to cybernation, the equipment will be in and operating. Once this happens, the costs of backtracking may be too great for private enterprise to sustain. For, in addition to the costs of removing the equipment, there will be the costs of building a pre-cybernation system of operations. But which firms will voluntarily undertake such a job if they are unsure whether their competitors are suffering the same setback-or indeed if their competitors are going to decybernate at all? And, if not voluntarily, how would the government enforce, control, and pay for the change-over? Additional Leisure 1t is generally recognized that sooner or later automation and computers will mean shorter working hours and greater leisure for most if not all of the American people. It is also generally, if vaguely, recognized that there probably are problems connected wi th the use of leisure that will take time to work oul. Two stages need to be distinguished: the state of leisure over the next decade or two, when ollr sociCOMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for March, 1962 ety will still be in transition to a way of life based on the widespread application of cybernation; and the relatively stable state some time in the future when supposedly everybody will have more leisure time than today and enough security to enjoy it. The transitional stage is our chief concern, for the end is far enough off to make more than some general speculations about it footless. At this later time people's behavior and attitudes will be conditioned as much by presently unforeseeable social and technological developments as by the character and impact of cybernation itself. During the transition there will be four differen t "leisure" classes: 1) the unemployed, 2) the lowsalaried employees working short hours, 3) the adequately paid to high-salaried group working short hours, and 4) those with no more leisure than they now have-which in the case of many professionals means very few hours of leisure indeed. LEISURE CLASS ONE Today, most of the unemployed are from low educational backgrounds where leisure has always been simply a respite from labor. No particular aspirations to or positive attitudes about the creative use of leisure characterize this group. Since their main concern is finding work and security, wha t they do with their leisure is a gratuitous question; whatever they do, it will hardly contribute to someone else's profits. I t is worth speculating that one thing they might do is to participate in radical organizations through which they could vent their hostility over being made insecure and useless. Another thing they could do, if so motivated and if the opportunity were available. would be to learn a skill not likely to be cybernated in the near future, although, as we have seen, the question arises of what this would be. Another thing would be to move to areas where there is still a demand for them. But breaking community ties is always difficult, especially during periods of threat when the familiar social group is the chief symbol of security. And who would pay for their move and who would guarantee a job when they got where they were going?l!l As cybernation expands its domain, the unemployed "leisure" class will not consist only of blue-collar workers. The displaced service worker will also swell the ranks of the unemployed, as well as the relatively well-trained white-collar workers until they can find jobs or displace from jobs the less well-trained or less presentable, like the college graduate filling-station attendant of not so many years ago. It is doubtful that during their unemployed period these people will look upon that time as "leisure" time. For the poorly educated, watching television, gossiping, and puttering around the house will be low-cost time-fillers between unemployment checks; for the better educated, efforts at systematic self-improvement, perhaps, as well as readillg, television, and gossip; for many, it will he time spent in making the agonizing shift in style of living required of the unemployed. These will be more or less individual tragedies representing at any given time a small portion of the work force of the nation, statistically speaking. They will be spread over the cities and suburbs of the Ilation, reflecting the consequences of actions taken 35 by particular firms. If the SpIrIt of the day grows more statistical than individualistic, as this paper suggests later that it well might, there is a real question of our capacity to make the necessary organized effort in order to anticipate and cope with these "individual" cases. The free time of some men will be used to care for their children while their wives, in an effort to replace lost income, work at service jobs. But this arrangement is incompatible with our image of what properly constitutes man's role and man's work. The effects of this use of "leisure" on all family members will be corrosive rather than constructive and will contribute to disruption of the family circle. "Leisure" for this group of people may well acquire a connotation that will discourage for a long time to come any real desire to achieve it or any effort to learn how to use it creatively. One wonders, too, what women, with their growing tendency to work-to combat boredom as well as for money-will do as the barriers to work become higher, as menial white-collar jobs disappear under the impact of cybernation, and as the competition increases for the remaining jobs. If there are jobs, 6,000,000 more women are expected to be in the labor force in 1970 than were in it in 1960. Out of a total labor force of 87,000,000 at that time, 30,000,000 would be women. To the extent that women who want jobs to combat boredom will not be able to get them, there will be a growing leisure class that will be untrained for and does not want the added leisure. As for those women who have a source of adequate income but want jobs because they are bored, they will have less and less to do at home as automated procedures further routinize domestic chores. 'LEISURE CLASS TWO A different kind of leisure problem will exist for the low-income group working shorter hours. This group will be composed of people with the attitudes and behavior traditionally associated with this class, as well as some others who will have drifted into the group as a result of having been displaced by cybernation. What evidence there is indicates that now and probably for years to come, when members of this group have leisure time as a result of fewer working hours, the tendency will be to take another job.:w It is reasonable to believe that the general insecurity inevitably arising from changing work arrangements and the over-all threat of automation would encourage "moonlighting" rather than the use of free time for recreation. If these people cannot find second jobs, it is hard to imagine their doing anything different with their free time from what they do now, since they will not have the money, the motives, or the knowledge to search out different activities. If the shorter hours are of the order of four eighthour days, potentially serious social problems will arise. For example, a father will be working fewer hours than his children do in school. 'I\That he will do "around the house" and what adjustments he, his wife, and children will have to make to each other will certainly add very real difficulties to the already inadequate, ambiguous, and frustrating personal re3G lationships that typify much of middle-class family life. LEISURE CLASS THREE Workers with good or adequate income employed for shorter hours are the group usually thought of when one talks about the positive opportunities for using extra leisure in a cybernated world. Its members for the most part will be the professional, semi-professional, or skilled workers who will contribute enough in their social role to command a good salary but who will not be so rare as to be needed for 40 hours a week. These people already value learning and learning to learn. Given knowledge about, money for, and access to new leisure-time activities, they are likely to make use of them. They could help to do various desirable social service tasks in the community, tasks for which there is not enough money to attract paid personnel of high enough quality. They could help to teach, and, by virtue of their own intimate experiences with cybernation, they would be able to pass on the attitudes and knowledge that will be needed to live effectively in a cybernated world. It is likely, too, that this group will be the chief repository of creative, skilled manual talents. In a nation living off massproduced, automatically produced products, there may be a real if limited demand for hand-made articles. (We may become again in part a nation 01 small shopkeepers and craftsmen.) In general, this group of people will probably produce and consume most of its own leisure-time activities. LEISURE CLASS FOUR The fourth group consists of those who probably will have little or no more leisure time than they now have except to the extent permitted by additions to their ranks and by the services of cybernation. But extrapolations for the foreseeable future indicate insufficient increases in the class of presently overworked professionals and executives. Computers should be able to remove many of the more tedious aspects of their work in another few years, bu t for some time to come these people will continue to be overburdened. Some of this relatively small proportion of the population may manage to get down to a 40-hour week, and these lucky few should find no difficulty in using their leisure as productively and creatively as those in the third group. Thus, during the transItIOn period, it is the second group, the low-salaried workers who cannot or will not find another job, that presents the true leisure problem, as distinct from the unemployment problem. Here is where the multiple problems connected with private and public make-play efforts may prove very difficult indeed. ''''e have some knowledge about relatively low-income workers who become voluntarily interested in adult education and adult play sessions, but we have had no real experience with the problems of how to stimulate the interests and change the attitudes of a large population that is forced to work shorter hours but is used to equating work and security, that will be bombarded with an advertising geist praising consumption and glamorous leisure, that will be bounded closely on one side by the unemployed and on the other by a re]atively well-to-do community to which it cannot hope to COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for March, 19G2 COMl aspire. Boredom may drive these people to seek new leisure-time activities if they are provided and do not cost much. But boredom combined with other factors Illay also make for frustration and aggression and all the social and political problems these qualities imply. B Decisions and Public Opinion c and 19GO. The government must turn to cOlllputers to handle many of its major problems simply hecause the data involved are so massive and the factors so complex that only machines can handle the material fast enough to allow timely action based on understanding of the facts. In the nature of the situation, the decisions made by the government with the help of computers would be based in good part on computers that have been programmed with more or less confidential information-and privileged access to information, at the time it is needed, is a sufficient if not always necessary condition for attaining and maintaining power. There may not be any easy way to insure that decisions based on computers could not become a threat to democratic government. Most of the necessary inputs for the government's computer systems are available only to the government, because it is the only institution with sufficiently extensive facilities for massive surveys (whether they be photographic, observational, paper and pencil, or electronic in nature). Also, the costs of these facilities and their computer installations are so great that buying and maintaining such a system is sensible only if one has the decision-making needs of a government and the data required to feed the machines. Other organizations, with other purposes, would not need this kind of installation. These machines can provide more potent information than merely rapidly produced summaries and tabulations of data. They can quickly provide information on relationships among data, which may be appreciated as significant only by those already having privileged information based on a simpler level of analysis or on other nonquantified intelligence to which the user is privy.21 Computers can also provide information in the form of extrapolations of the consequences of specific strategies and the probabilities that these consequences will arise. This information can be based on exceedingly complex contingencies. The utility and applicability of these extrapolations will be fully understandable only to those knowing the particular assumptions that went into the programming of the machines. THE INEVITABILITY OF IGNORANCE It may be impossible to allow much of the government, to say nothing of the public, access to the kind of information we have been discussing here. But let us assume that somehow the operation of the government has been reorganized so that procedures are enforced to permit competing political parties and other private organizations to have access to the government's raw data, to have parallel systems for the processing of data as well as to have access to the government's computer programs. Even then, most people will be incapable of judging the validity of one contending computer program compared to another, or whether the policies based on them are appropriate. . ]%2 COMP1JTERS and AUTOMATION for March, 1962 PRIVILEGED INFORMATION .. o C ,and, :)cks. Ictor ger:rials ever, Lli as The dard [uncetchposiform ::k. been er,"* Igedncies addinCles )lock d by tun)lock and ith a icon. form -type hase olate netal l the ~ B This condition exists today about military postures. These are derived in good part from computer analyses and computer-based games that produce probabilities based on programmed assumptions about weapon systems and our and the enemy's behavior. Here the intellectual ineffectualness of the layman is obscured by the secrecy that keeps him from finding out what he probably would not be able to understand anyway. J[ this sounds condescending, it only needs to be pointed out that there are large areas of misunderstanding and misinterpretation among the military too. At any given time, some of these people do not fully appreciate the relationships between the programs used in the computers and the real world in which the consequences are supposed to follow. As it is now, the average intelligent man has little basis for judging the differing opinions of economists about the state of the economy or even about the reasons for a past state. He also has little basis for a ppraising the conflicting opinions among scientists and engineers about the costs and results of complex scientific developments such as man in space. In both examples, computers play important roles in the esoteric arguments involved. Thus, even if people may have more leisure time to attend more closely to politics, they may not have the ability to contribute to the formulation of policy. Some observers feel that the middle class does not now take a strong interest in voting and is alienated in its responsibility for the conduct of government. Leisure may not change this trend, especially when government becomes in large part the complex computer operation that it must necessarily become. Significant public opinion may come from only a relatively small portion of the public: a) those who are able to follow the battles of the computers and to understand the implications of their programs; and b) those who are concerned with government policy but who are outside of or unfamiliar with the computer environment. For this segment of the voting population, differences over decisions that are made or should be made might become more intense and more irreconcilable. Already there is a difference of opinion among intelligent men about the problem of the proper roles in American foreign policy of military weapons, arms control, and various levels of disarmament. One side accuses its opponents of naIvete or ignorance about the "facts" (computer-based), and the other side objects to the immorality or political insensibilities of its opponents. Many aspects of the problem involve incommensurables; most are too complex to stand simplification in order to appeal to the larger public or to an unsophisticated Congressman. Yet the arguments are simplified for these purposes and the result is fantastic confusion. The ensuing frustration leads to further efforts to ma ke the case black or white and to further efforts by one contingent to provide ever more impressive computer-based analyses and by the other side to demonstrate that they are beside the point. This is only one example of the problems that will arise from the existence of sophisticated computers. ''''ill the problems create greater chasms between the :~7 sophisticated voter and the general public, and within the sophisticated voting group itself? PERSONNEL AND PERSONALITIES As for the selection of the men who are to plan or make policy, a computerized government will require different training from that which executive personnel in most governmental agencies has today. Certainly, without such training (and perhaps with it) there is bound to be a deepening of the split between politics and facts. For example, it is evident that the attitudes of many Congressmen toward space activities are motivated more by politics and conventional interpretations of reality than by engineering facts or the realities of international relations. The same schisms will be compounded as computers are used more and more to plan programs in the Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, urban development, communications, transportation, foreign aid, and the analysis of intelligence data of all sorts. In business and industry the shift has already begun toward recruiting top management from the cadre of engineering and laboratory administration, for these are the people who understand the possibilities of and are sympathetic to computer-based thinking. In government the trend has not been as clearcut, but it is noteworthy that the scientist, as highlevel adviser, is a recent innovation and one clearly here to stay. Sometimes unhappily and sometimes enthusiastically, the scientist, scientist-administrator, and engineer acknowledge that their role of adviser is frequently confused with that of policy-maker. As people with this training come more to influence policy and those chosen to make it, changes in the character and attitudes of the men responsible for the conduct of government will inevitably occur. For reasons of ,personality as well as professional perspective, many operations researchers and systems analysts have great difficulty in coping with the more ambiguous and less "logical" aspects of society.!!!! Their temperaments, training, and sympathies may not incline them to indulge the slow, ponderous, illogical, and emotional tendencies of democratic processes. Or they may ignore the extra-logical nature of man. Emphasis on "logic," in association with the other factors we have mentioned, may encourage a trend toward the recruitment of authoritarian personalities. There is no necessary correlation between the desire to apply scientific logic to problems and the desire to apply democratic principles to daily, or even to professional scientific, life. MASS VS. THE INDIVIDUAL The psychological influence of computers is overwhelming: they symbolize and reenforce the potency of America's belief in the utility of science and technology. There is a sense of security in nicely worked-up curves and complex displays of information which are the products of almost unimaginably intricate and elegant machinery. In general, the influence of computers will continue to be enhanced if those who use them attend chiefly to those components of reality which can be put into a computer and processed by it, and the important values will become those which are compatible with this approach to analyzing and manipulating the world. For example, the influence of computers has :H~ already been sufficiently strong to seduce military planners and civil defense planners away from those aspects of their problems which are not now subject to data processing. Most of the planning for survival following nuclear attack has to do with those parts of the situation which can be studied by computers. Crucial aspects of psychological and social reOl'ganization have been pushed into the background simply because they cannot be handled statistically with convenience or with the demonstrated "expertness" of the specialist in computers. Thus, the nature of the postattack situation is argued learnedly but spuriously by those who have the attention of leadership, an attention stimulated by the glamor of computers, the prestige of their scientist-keepers, and the comfort of their "hard facts." Computers are especially useful for dealing with social situations that pertain to people in the mass, such as traffic control, financial transactions, massdemand consumer goods, allocation of resources, etc. They are so useful in these areas that they undoubtedly will help to seduce planners into inventing a society with goals that can be dealt with in the mass rather than in terms of the individual. In fact, the whole trend toward cybernation can be seen as an effort to remove the variabilities in man's on-the-job behavior and off-the-job needs which, because of their lIoll-statistical nature, complicate production and consumption. Thus, somewhere along the line, the idea of the individual may be completely swallowed up ill statistics. The planner and those he plans for may become divorced from one another, and the alienation of the individual from his government and individual from individual within government may grow ever greater. Computers will inevitably be used to plan employment for those displaced by cybernation. This may lead to a more rationalized society than could otherwise be invented, with a more adequate allocation of jobs. But one wonders whether it will not also lead, on a national scale, to an attitude in the planner of relative indifference to the individual, an indifference similar to that shown by many managers of large self-service institutions who find an occasional complaint too much trouble to cope with individually because the influence of the individual on the operation of the system is too negligible to warrant attention. What will be the consequences for our relations with underdeveloped nations of a government that sees the world through computers? With our general public alienated from its own productive and governmental processes and our leadership seemingly successful through its use of computer-based planning and control, our government may well become more and more' incapable of recognizing the differences between the needs, aspirations, and customs of these nations and those of our own country. In these nations, productive and governmental processes will still be very human activities, with all the non-statistical variabilities that implies. Our decision to race the U.S.S.R. to the moon is an initial indication of our incapacity as an advanced technological nation to appreciate what our acts look like to other nations with different attitudes. COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for l\Iarch, 1962 ", cond const systel be di Sel type devic nium two I Or chern assoc atom ducec the' make abou dium a sho vacar ture; condl cryst< Thus mOVI refen TIl n-typ A de refen (one In or This If, condl a thr sand, Tran~ the st cente Ba~ diode other have Chal'! ClrcUl rent Emi CO~IP npoeed, clec- m- erthe item necper ities Itire ~ 0.9 ities llcuents sing ,iles, IIUS t any jon. 1 be ) of onlc ,000 tion recon- ! lOWS and ,t elll the lelll. s as lber Ol'lll 11ICS perlIer- ap"Csts ac:\m:Ight stor .!Illl- I!/(i:! On the other hand, the emphasis on human behavior as a statistical reality may encourage revisions in the temporal scale of government planning and programs. Time is a statistical property in cybernated systems: it takes time for variables to average out, to rise or fall in their effects, and the time period usually is not a fiscal year or some small multiple thereof. Thus, perhaps we can hope for more sensible long-range planning in government as a result of the computer's need [or long time periods in which to make its statistical models work out. If this should come about, of course, it will require vast changes in the conduct of government and in the devices that government, and especially the Congress, uses for controlling its activities. It may also result in extending the present trend of turning over governmental policy-planning and, in effect, policy-making responsibilities to private organizations and their human and machine computers such as RAND. For unless the rules for Congressional elections are also changed, some of the responsibility that Congressmen now take for programs, when they vote relatively short-term appropriations, will no doubt be transferred to the machines that invented the plans if Congressmen should be faced with passing on appropriations and programs that would extend far beyond the time of their incumbencies. DECISIONS FOR BUSINESS The implications of the concentration of decision-making within business firms as a result of cybernation are not as clear-cut as the effects for government. In principle, both big and small business will be able to know much more about the nature of their markets and of their organizational operations through cybernation. Whether or not this will help both big and small proportionately is far from clear. Big business will undoubtedly have better facilities for information and decisions, but small business may be able to get what it needs by buying it from service organizations that will come into existence for this purpose. Big organizations will be able to afford high-priced personnel for doing the thinking beyond that done by the machines. If quality o[ thinking is always related to price, the big organizations will be able to put their small competitors out or busirless. But the big organizations, precisely because of their size, may have relatively little maneuverability, and some of the best minds may find the little organizations a more exciting game. 'Nhether the little organizations could stay afloat is moot, but one can anticipate some exciting entrepreneurial maneuvers among the small firms while they last. One thing is clear: among the small organizations, and probably among the big ones too, we can expect disastrous mistakes as a result of poor machine programming or inaccurate interpretations of the directives or the machines. These will be greatest during the early period when it will be faddish to plan via machi ne a nd when few organizations will have the brainpower and organization to do so intelligently. Thus, added to the unemployment ranks in the decade or so ahead will be those who have been put out or jobs because their firms have misused computers. COMPUTERS (/1ld AUTOMATION for March, 1962 The Control of Cybernation Time and Planning Time is crucial in any plan to cope with cybernation. Ways of ameliorating its adverse effects require thinking farther ahead than we ever do. In a society in the process of becoming cybernated, education and training [or work as well as education and training [or leisure must begin early in life. Shifts in behavior, attitudes, and aspirations take a long time to mature. It will be extraordinarily difficult to produce appropriate "culture-bearers," both parents and teachers, in sufficient numbers, distribution, and quality in the relatively brief time available. It is hard to see, for example, how Congress, composed in good part of older men acting from traditional perspectives and operating by seniority, could recognize soon enough and then legislate well enough to produce the fundamental shifts needed to meet the complexities of cybernation. It is hard to see how our style of pragmatic making-do and frantic crash programs can radically change in the next few years. This is especially hard to visualize when the whole cybernation situation is such that we find it impossible to determine the consequences of cybernation even in the medium long run. The differences expressed in the public statements of business and labor demonstrate that any reconciliation of interests will be a very longrange effort indeed. "Drastic" actions to forestall or eliminate the ill-effects of cybernation will not be taken in time unless we change our operating style drastically. Education: Occupations and Attitudes Among the many factors contributing to the stability of a social system are two intimately intertwined ones: the types of tasks that are performed; and the nature of the relationship between the attitudes o[ the members of the society toward these tasks and their opinions about the proper goals of the individual members of the society and the right ways of reaching them. The long-range stability of the social system depends on a population of young people properly educated to enter the adult world of tasks and attitudes. Once, the pace of change was slow enough to permit a comfortable margin of compatibility between the adult world and the one children were trained to expect. This compatibility no longer exists. Now we have to ask: What should be the education of a population more and more enveloped in cybernation? What are the appropriate attitudes toward and training for participation in government, the use of leisure, standards of consumption, particular occupations? Education must cope with the transitional period when the disruption among different socio-economic and occupational groups will be the greatest; and the later, relatively stahle period, if it ever comes to exist, when most people would have adequate income and shorter working hours. The problem involves looking ahead five, ten, twenty years to see what are likely to be the occupational and social needs and attitudes of those future periods; planning the intellectual and social education o[ each age group in the numbers needed; motivating young- people to seek certain types of jobs and to adopt the desirable alld :I!/ I necessary attitudes; providing enough suitable te~c:h ers; being able to alter all of these as the actualItIes in society and technology indicate; and directing the pattern of cybernation so that it fits with the expected kinds and distribution of abilities and attitudes produced by home and school. To what extent education and technology can be coordinated is not at all clear, if only because we do not know, even for today's world, the criteria for judging the consonance or dissonance in our educational, attitudinal, and occupational systems. We think that parts of the social system are badly out of phase with other parts and that, as a whole, the system is progressively less capable of coping with the problems it produces. But there is little consensus on the "causes" and even less 'On what can be done about them. All we have at present is the hope that most people can be educated for significant participation in such a world as we have foreseen here-we have no evidence that it can be done. If we do not find the answers to these questions soon, we will have a population in the next ten to twenty years more and more out of touch with I~a tional and international realities, ever more the VICtims of insecurity on the one hand and ennui on the other, and more and more mismatched to the occupational needs of the day. If we fail to find the answers, we can bumble along, very probably heading into disaster, or we can restrict the extension of cybernation, permitting it only where necessary for the national interest. But judging the nati'Onal interest and distinguishing it from private interests would confront us with most of the problems that have been outlined in this paper. Perhaps time has already run out. Even ~f ol~r style somehow should shift to long-range plannmg, It would not eliminate the inadequate training and inadequate values of much of our present adolescent and pre-adolescent population, as well as of those adults who will be displaced or remain unhired as a result of cybernation in the next decade. Only a partial solution exists in this case: Begin now a program of economic and social first aid for these people. A Moratorium on Cybernation? Can we control the effects of cybernation by making it illegal or unprofitable to devel'Op cybernation technology? No, not without virtually stopping the development of almost all of new technology and a good part of the general development of scientific knowledge. The accumulation of knowledge in many areas of science depends on computers. To refine computers and make them more versatile requires research in almost every scientific area. It also requires the development of a technology, usually automated, to produce the articles needed to build new computers. As long as we choose to compete with other parts of I he world, we shall have to develop new products and new means for producing them better. CybernaI ion is the only way to do it on a significant scale. As long as we choose to live in a world guided by science and its technology we have no choice but to encourage the development of cybernation. If we insist on this framework, the answers to coping wi th its effects must be found elsewhere than In a moratorium on its development. Control: Public or Private? There has always been tension between big industry, with its concern for profit and market control, and government, with its concern for the. natio~al interest. The tension has increased as bIg busmess has become so large as t'O be quasi-governmental in its influence and as government has had to turn to and even subsidize parts of business in order to meet parts of the national interest within a free-enterprise framework. Under these circumstances we can expect strong differences between government and business as to when and where it is socially legitimate to introduce automation. Sufficient governmental control over who can cybernate, when, and where would not come easily. In the first place, decisions about control would have to be based on the intentions 'Of local business and industry as well as on the national picture. For example, the effects on Congressional seating of shifts in populations as a result of cybernation-based industrial relocation would presumably enter the calculations. Longer-run consequences would have to be balanced against short-run profits or social dislocations. Implications for our military posture and for international trade would be significant. Moreover, it would be difficul t for the governmen t to make a case for control of private organizations on the basis of ambiguous estimates of the effects of automation on hiring policy. In any particular case, it becomes clear only well after the fact of cybernation whether increases or changes in production resulted in a corresponding increase in man-hours of work sufficient to compensate the economy for the jobs lost or the people unhired. Finally, it must be kept in mind that the power of some of the largest unions is seriously threatened by automation. In a relatively short time they may not have the leverage they now have. Thus, a crucial counterbalance to the pressures from business may be absent when it is most needed. It is possible that the crisis that will arouse the government to exert control will not be evident until the blue-collar work force has been so eroded as to have weakened the unions irreparably. Yet some sort of control is going to be necessary. There are, of course, the federal regulatory agencies. H'Owever, they have never been distinguished for applying their powers with the vigor sometimes allowed by their mandates, and there is no reason to suppose that their traditional weaknesses would suddenly disappear and than an agency created to cope with cybernation w'Ould be effective. Nor is there any reason to believe that an agency with the very wideranging powers that it would need would be approved before the crisis that it was supposed to avert was upon us. In theory, control could be exercised by private enterprise. But in the unlikely case that competi.to.rs could see their mutual interests clearly enough to .10111 forces, the very act of cooperative control would be incompatible with our anti-trust laws. 't\Thether the government or s'Ome alter-government comprised of COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for March, 1%2 to ith, ing ted ght the Acthe ack the Jne uul On the be adHe- !cal 10k, :onIn- of ons tIeS, r ) --.,-.,. - ~, I tillS I!Hi:! business, labor, and industry were to do the controlling, either group would have to undertake a degree of national planning and control thoroughly incompatible with the way in which we look upon the management of our economic and social system today. After the Take-Over In twenty years, other things being equal, most of the routine blue-collar and white-collar tasks that can be done by cybernation will be. Our schools will probably be turning out a larger proportion of the population better educated than they are today, but most of Ollr citizens will be unable to understand the cybernated world in which they live. Perhaps they will understand the rudiments of calculus, biology, nuclear physics, and the humanities. But the research realm of scientists, the problems of government, and the interplay between them will be beyond the ken even of our college graduates. Besides, most people will have had to recognize that, when it comes to logic, the machines by and large can think better than they, for in that time reasonably good thinking computers should be operating on a large scale. There will be a small, almost separate, society of people in rapport with the advanced computers. These cyberneticians will have established a relationship with their machines that cannot be shared with the average man any more than the average man today can understand the problems of molecular biology, nuclear physics, or neuropsychiatry. Indeed, many scholars will not have the capacity to share their knowledge or feeling about this new man-machine relationship. Those with the talent for the work probably will have to develop it from childhood and will be trained as intensively as the classical ballerina. Some of the remaining population will be productively engaged in human-to-human or human-to-machine activities requiring judgment and a high level of intelligence and training. But the rest, whose innate intelligence or training is not of the highest, what will they do? We can foresee a nation with a large portion of its people doing, directly or indirectly, the endless public tasks that the welfare state needs and that the government will not allow to be cyberluted because of the serious unemployment that would result. These people will work short hours, with much time for the pursuit of leisure activities. Even wi th a college education, what will they do all their long lives, day after day, four-day week-end after week-end, vacation after vacation, in a more and more crowded world? (There is a population explosion to face in another ten to thirty years.) What will they believe in and aspire to as they work their shorter hours and, on the outside, pursue their "selffulfilling" activities, whatever they may be? No one has ever seriously envisioned what characteristics these activities might have in order to be able to engross most men and women most of their adult lives. What will be the relationship of these people to government, to the "upper intellectuals," to the rest of the world, to themselves? Obviously, attitudes toward work, play, and social responsibility will have changed greatly. Somehow we shall have had to cope emotionally with the V;lsl gap in living standards that will then typify the difference between us and the have-not nations. \IVC COMPUTERS lind AUTOMATION for March, 1962 shall presumably have found some way to give mealling to the consumption of mass leisure. It would seem that a life oriented to private recreation might carry with it an attitude of relative indifference to public responsibility. This indifference, plus the centralization of authority, would seem to imply a governing elite and a popular acceptance of such an dite. H this world is to exist as a coherent society, it will have to have its own "logic," so that it will make sense to its inhabitants. Today, for most of our population, our society makes sense, even though some other eyes hardly see us as logical in the formal sense of the word and the eyes of some of our own people look on us as a more or less pointless society. We make and solve our problems chiefly by other than mathematical-logical standards, and so must the cybernated generations. ''\That these standards might be, we do not know. But if they are inadequate, the frustration and pointlessness that they produce may well evoke, in turn, a war of desperation-ostensibly against some external enemy but, in fact, a war to make the world safe for human beings by destroying most of society'S sophisticated technological base. One thing is clear: if the new "logic" is to resolve the problems raised here, it will have to generate beliefs, behavior, and goals far different from those which we have held now and which are driving us more and more inexorably into a contradictory 'ivorld run by (and for?) ever more intelligent, ever more versatile slaves. FOOTNOTES 1. John Diebold, Automation: Its Impact on Business lind Labor, National Planning Association, Planning Pamphlet No. 106, Washington, D. C., May, 1959, p. 3. 2. "Multi-Purpose Automation Unit is Sold 'Off the Shelf,''' New York Times, .Tune 23, 1961, p. 44. 3. Norbert 'Viener, "Some Moral and Technical Consequences of Automation," Science, Vol. 131, ~o. 3410, May 6, 1960, p. 1356. 4. Ibid., p. 1357. 5. Calling All Jobs, National Association of Manufacturers, New York, October, 1957, p. 21. 6. "'Vhen Machines Have Jobs-and 'Yorkers Do Not," U. s. News and World RejJort, Vol. 50, No.6, Fehruary G, 1961, p. 76. 7. From statement by 'Valter Reuther before the Subcommittee on Economic Stabilization of the Joint Committee on the Economic Report, U. S. Cong-ress; .rlll/olllll/io/l (///(l Technological Change, 84th Congress. First S~ssion. lise PO, 1955, p. 99. 8. From statement of James .\. Sullridg-e, President, Retail Clerks International .\ssociation before the Subcommittee on .\utomatioll anel Energy Resources of the Joint Economic Committee, U. S. Congress; New Views all A utumutioll, 86th Congress, Second Session, USGPO, 1960, p. 591. 9. "The Automation Johless ... Not Fired, Just Not Hired," Time, Vol. 77, No.9, February 24, 1961, p. 69. 10. From statement by Howard Coughlin, President, Office Employees International Union, AFL-CIO, before the Subcom· mittee on Automation and Energy Resources of the Joint Economic Committee, U. S. Congress; New Views on Automation, 86th Congress, Second Session, USGPO, 1960, p. 513. II. Harold J. Leavitt and Thomas L. 'Vhisler, "~lanagement in the 1980's," Haruard Business Review, Nov.-Dec. 1958, pp. 41-8. 12. See, for example, Howard Rusk, "New Tools in Medicine," New York Times, July 23, 1961. 13. A. H. Raskin, "Hard-Core Unemployment a Rising National Problem," New York Times, April 6, 1961, p. 18. 14. In conversation with Mr. Iffert. See also Robert E. IITert, Hetention and Withdrawal of College Students, Bulletin No. I, Department of Health, Education, and 'Velfare, 1958. 15. James B. Conant, "Social Dynamite in Our Large Cities," Vital Speeches, No. 18, July I. 1%1, p. !i!).! If. 16. "The Automation Johless ... :"Jot Fired. Just Not Hired," Tillie, Vol. 77, No. !), February:!·!, 1%1. p. Ii!). ]7. A. H. Raskin, "Fears Ahout. Autolllatioll OvershadowillgIts Boons," New Yo,-k Times, ;\pril 7, 1!lIiI. p. Iti. (Colldudcd Oil 1V(:.\" { IJ(/p.,f') 11 Who's Who in the Computer Field (Supplement) A full entry in the "Who's Who in the Computer Field" consists of: name / title, organization, address / interests (the capital letters of the abbreviations are the initial letters of Applications, Business, Construction, Design, Electronics, Logic, Mathematics, Programming, Sales) / year of birth, college or last school (background), year of entering the computer field, occupation / other information such as distinctions, publications, etc. An absence of information is indicated by - (dash). Other abbreviations are used which may be easily guessed like those in the telephone book. Davenport, John H / Secy, Integrand Corp, 1 Bond St, Westbury, N Y / AP / '20, Univ of ~Iich Grad Schl, -, DcCruccio, John F / Compr Sys Coordinator, ·Western Electric Co, Inc, 100 Central Avc, Kearny, N J / ABP / '33, Lehigh Univ (BSIE), '57, ind cngr DcLasscn, Jan / Pgmr, Mobil Oil Co, Caracas, Venezuela / AL~IP / '34, Texas ;\ & 1\1, '59, prgmr Dc Nicola, Robert / Prgmr, Port of N Y Authority, HI-8th Ave, N Y H, N Y / P / '14, CCNY, '61, prgmr Dickinson, William R / Compr Consltnt, Data Processing Consultants Co., First Nat'l Bank Bldg, 1580 Sherman, Evanston, III / A / '24, Northwestern, '58, compr cons1tnt Edmiston, Walter / Dig Compr Adm, Phila Naval Shipyard, Phi1a, Pa / ABP, gen admn / '16, Drexel Inst, Temple Univ, '55, - / Secy Univac User Assoc Effros, Alan L I Mbr Elecnc Products Dept, Recordak Corp, 1 ·Wanamaker Place, New York 3, N Y / ABDEMPS / '29, Adelphi CoIl, '55, sys & prod pIng / techl papers on info procg and retricval Ferrari, Reynold I Mgr Comm App!, Bendix Computer Div, 205 E 42nd St, New York 17, N Y I ABLPS / '26, St. John's Univ, '56, accountant Fonseca, John / Head, Banking, Ins & Real Estatc Dept. Mohawk Valley Technical Inst, Utica, N Y I B I '25, Harvard Law Schl, '!i9, coIl adm / "Impact of Automation on Insurance Collcge Courses and Administration" Grossman, Georgc / Chmn of Mathematics, William Howard Taft High Schl, Board of Education of the City of New York, N Y 57, N Y; Instructor in Computers and Math at Columbia Univ, Schl of Engrg, N Y 27, N Y / ALMP, teaching I '14, CCNY and Columbia Univ, '57, chmn of high schl math dept / article in 2/61 Mathematics Teacher discussing how programming is taught to high schl studcnts Hardy, Norman / Vice Pres, Rabinow Engrg Co, Inc, 1025 Research Blvd, Rockville, Md / AS I '17, CCNY, '51, apln cngrg Holmes, James D J I Assoc Prof of Accountancy, Univ of Miss, Schl of Commerce and Bus Admr, University, Miss / tcaching I '30, Univ of Alabama (BS, ~rS), '58, tcacher I "An Introductory Course in the Field of Electronic Data Processing" Johnson, Gilbert I I Sr EDP Prgmr, Gcneral Dynamics, Fort ·Worth, Tcx I BP I '29, North Texas State, Tcxas Christian U, '51, prgmr Kcenan, John A / Sr Engr, Sylvania Data Systcms, 1210 VFW Parkway, W Rox~:ury, Mass / DE / '30, Univ of Wisc, :)7, cngr Kerr, J L / Devt Engr, Electronic Switchins Svstem, 6200 East Broad, C()lumbus 13, Ohio / AP I '37, Washington U, '60, Lemus, F I Scientist, SHAPE Air Defence Technl Centrc, POBox 174, The Hague, Netherlands I ABMP / '26, Iowa State Univ, '57, statistician / "A Mixed Model Factorial in Testing Electrical Connectors," "Reliability Evaluation of a Power Supply System" Lewis, Albert D M / Assoc Prof of Structural Engrg, Purdue Univ, Civil Engrg Bldg, Lafayette, Ind I AEP / '20, Purdue Univ, '54, civil engr Lowe, Stephen I Aero Space Technologist, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Box 273, Edwards, Calif / ALMP I '36, Univ of Utah, '61, prgmr Luckie, Robert Ross, III / Mathn, HRBSinger, Inc, POBox 60, Science Pk, State College, Pa I ADELM, info retrieval, military ap1ns / '34, Pennsylvania State Univ, '60, compr sys dsgn Marshall, Harold J / Elecnc Systms Analyst. New England Mutual Life Ins Co, 501 Boylston St, Boston, Mass / ABP I -, Boston Univ, '56, compr pgrmr and sys anlyst McCall, Dr Jerry C I Asst to the Dir, George C Marshall Space Flight Center, Nat'! Aeronautics and Space Admn, Huntsville, Ala / AP I '27, Univ of Miss (BA, MA), Univ of III (MS, PhD), '54, - IH. "The Automation Jobless ... Not Fired, Just Not Hired," Tilllt', Vol. 77, No.9, February 24, 1961, p. 69. I !I. Perhaps an indication of things to come is to be found ill the recent Federal Court ruling that employees have an "('arncd and vested right" of seniority and that this cannot be "denicd unilaterally" or affected by a change in the location of their employer. "Court Bars Firing in Plant Move," Washington ])osf, July 7, 1961. 12 WHO'S WHO IN THE COMPUTER FIELDCUMULATIVE EDITION, 1962 Computers and Automation will publish this spring a cumulative edition of "Who's Who in the Computer Field." The closing date for receiving entries is Mar. 25, 1962. If you are interested in computers, please fill in the following Who's Who entry form (which may be copied on any piece of paper) and send it to us for your free listing. If you have friends in the computer field, please call their attention to sending us their Who's \!\Tho entries. The cumulative edition will include only the entries of persons who send us their Who's \!\Tho information. eng sof1 Un« aHo tha ... , eaSE ma1 sup Ber the you 563 1 Name? (please print) Your Address? ................................... . Your Organization? __ .. __ ................. . I ts Address? ....................................... . \' our Your ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( ( Title? ................................ __ .. __ .. Main Computer Interests? ) Applications ) Business ) Construction ) Design ) Electronics ) Logic ) Mathematics ) Programming ) Sales ) Other (specify): I Year of birth? .............................. __ . __ . Col1ege or last school? ................... . Year entered the computer field? ... . Occupation? ................. _................... . Anything else? (publications, distinctions, etc.) ................................... . "\Then you have filled in this en try form please send it to: Who's ''\Tho Editor, Computers and Automation, 815 Washington Street, Newtonville 60, Mass. 20. Harvey Swados, "Less Work-Less Leisure," Alass Leisllre, ed. Eric Larrabee and Rolf Meyersohn, The Free Press, Glencoc, Ill., 1958, p. 353. 21. Lawrence K Davies, "Data Retriever to Help the CIA. Finds One Page in Millions in Only a Few Seconds," New Yorh Times, July 12, 1961. 22- Donald N. Michael, "Some Factors Tending to Limit the Utility of the Social Scientist in Military Systems Analysis," OjJcrations Research, Vol. 5, No.1, February, 1957, pp. 90-96. COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for March, 19G2 I I b~ co~ 00 Irs. idI1S- lrc ~rc lrc 1111- )rc ~he .ec- ust ay: of Dr. 19a 1!J(i2 Muller, Elizabeth M / Sr Staff Matlm, General Precision, GPL Div, Pleasantville, N Y / AD, new systms / -, Columbia, '51, sys analyst Newman, Sam / Mathn, NAFEC, FAA/ BRAD, Atlantic City, N J / M / '19, -, '57, mathn / various papers and pubIs, patent Oxford, Desmond de Villiers / Proj Mgr Compr Investigation, Anglo American Corporation Limited, Leslie Poll a k House, Kitwe, Northern Rhodesia / Aplns to the mining industry / '16, Univ of South Africa, '60, mining engnr / numerous published articles Paden, John K / Pres, John K Paden Company, 2624 Shelby St, Dallas 19, Tex / ABPS / '24, US Military Academy at West Point, '56, elecnc data procg consltnt Patton, Peter C / Assoc Engr, Midwest Research Inst, 425 Volker Blvd, Kansas 'City 10, Mo / AMP, info retrieval / '35, Harvard (AB), Kansas Univ (MA), '57, data procg sys anlyst Payne, R / Supv Compr Lab, Worthington Corp, Harrison, N J / AMP / '12, USNA, '57, engrg Payne, W II / Admn Sys Specl, Lockheed Aircraft Corp, Box 551, Burbank, Calif / ABMP, compr sys evaluation / '27, -, '56, data procg pIng Peterson, Norman D / Mgm Analyst, US Dept of Interior, Portland, Ore / P, inventory and prodtn cantrI, info retrieval / -, Washington State Univ (:\IS, BEd), '55, mathn Petrie, H Philip / Engrg Speclst, The Air Preheater Corp, Wellsville, N Y / A:\IP / '26, St. Bonaventure Univ, '57, compr prgmg Rice, Sidney E / Sr Prgmr, The National Cash Register Company, National Data Processing Center, 660 Madison Ave, New York 21, N Y / AP, systems / '28, Brooklyn ColI, New London Jr CoIl, New York Community CoIl, '57, compr sys analyst and prgmr Salsbury, Robert G / Staff Mathn, IBM Corp, General Product Development Lab, Endicott, N Y / ADLP / '22, Univ of :\Iich (MA), '57, prgmr-analyst Simmons, ~Iaryhelen / Dig Compr Prgmr, DHEW, SS:\, Bureau of Old Age & Survivors Insnrance, Woodlawn 35, Md / P / '23, CoIl of Notre Dame of :\ld, '55, prgmr Simpson, Charles H / Mgr, Data Procg, Commission on Professional and Hospital Activities, First National Bldg, Ann Arbor, i\lich / ABP, medical data res / '31, :\Iich State Univ, '60, medical data res Siqueland, Torger A / Bus Sys Anlyst, Collins Radio Co., Information Science Center, 19700 San Joaquin Rd, Newport Beach, Calif / ABCP, eqpm and sys evaluations / '29, St Olaf CoIl, '59, admr supv Street, Lt David L / Data Sys Anlyst, Personnel S y s t ems Development Office, USAF, Bolling 25, D C / P, sys dsgn / '37, U of Colo, '60, sys anlyst and prgmr VanWinkle, Richard L / Chf Prgmr, Franklin Life Insurance Company, 800 So 6th St, Springfield, III / AP / '31, -, '52, life ins acctg / co-authored life ins chpt in Handhook of Automation Computation and (:ontrol Walker, Robert M / EleCllc Engr, Lawrence Radiation Lah, Liverlllore, Calif / DEL / ':1:'1, lJniv of Calif, 'm, engr Yates, D J / Sec-Treas, National Computer AnalYSIS, IIIC, Route !WG Center, Princeton, N .J / COMPUTERS flllti AUTOMATION for March, 1962 DERIVING majority logic NETWORKS The fundamental theorem of majority-decision logic, a typical product of Univac's Mathematics and Logic Research Department, has practical as well as theoretical interest. The even-parity checker derived above from the fundamental theorem can be treed to determine the parity of 3n bits in 2!l logiC levels using only (3 n -1) three-input majority gates. t Qualified applicants will find at Remington Rand Univac a scientific climate tuned to the intellectual curiosity of the professional man. The opportunity and the incentive for advancement are waiting for you in highly significant positions at Univac. You are invited to investigate them immediately. • SYSTEMS ANALYSTS • APPLICATIONS ANALYSTS • ENGINEER WRITERS • LOGICAL DESIGNERS • PROGRAMMERS Call tact the office of your choice: R. K. PATTERSON REMINGTON RAND UNIVAC Univac Park St. Paul 16, Minnesota REM N G WILLIAM LOWE REMINGTON RAND UNIVAC P.O. Box 6068 San Diego 6, California TON HAN 0 UNIVAC DIVISIDN DF SPERRY RAND CDRPDRATIDN Thc'rc' CII c' also imme'C/iate' o/Je'llillgs ill a/l arcas of digital ('omplltc'r clerc'III/II/It'lIt at ollr ot/ie'r lahoratllri,·.I. IIIIIIIiri('.l .l/lOlIlcilwacicirc'.lsc'cito: T.M.McCABE Reill. Hilnu Univilc P.O. Box 500 Blue Bell, Penn. D. CLAVELOUX neill. fbnd Univilc Wilson Avpm,,' So. Norw.llk, Conn, (1111 ('(/(ldl O/J/JOI {ulli{ies employer) 13 NEW PATENTS Raymond R. Skolnick Reg. Patent Agent Ford Inst. Co. Div. of Sperry Rand Corp. Long Island City 1, New York The following is a compilatiolJ patents pertaining to computer and associated equipment from the "Official Gazette of the U. S. Patent Office," dates of issue as indicated. Each entry consists of patent number / inventor (s) / assignee / invention. Printed copies of patents may be obtained [rom the Commissioner of Patents, VVashington 25, D. C., at a cost or 25 cen ts each. o[ December 12, 196<1 (Cont'd) 3,012,725 / Frederic C. Williams, Romiley, Tom Kilburn, Davyhulme, Manchester, and Geoffrey C. TootilL Hawley, Camherley, Eng. / 1. B. M. Corp., New York, N. Y. / An electronic digital computing device. ;1,012,72G / Frederic C. Williams, Romilcy, Tom Kilburn, Davyhulme, Manchester, Geoffrey C. Tootill, Hawley, CamberIey, and Arthur A. Rohinson, Hazel Grove, Eng. / 1. B. M. Corp., New York, N. Y. / An electronic digital computing device. 3,012,727 / Frederic C. Williams, Romiley, and Tom Kilburn, Davyhulme, Manchester, Eng. / I. B. M. Corp., New York, ~. Y. / An electronic digital com· puting device. 3.013,120 / Esmond P. Wright, London, Eng. / International Standard Elect. Corp., New York, N. Y. / A data processing system. 3,013,2:,)1 / Esmond P. Wright, London, Eng. / International Standard Elect. Corp., New York, N. Y. / Data process· ing equipment. 3,013,252 ! Frederick T. Andrews, Jr., Berkeley Heights, N. ]. / Bell Telephone Lab., Inc., New York, N. Y. / A magnetic core shift register circuit. :I,()l3,254 / Robert K. Walker, New Hartford, N. Y. / General Electric Co., a corp. of N. Y. / An information storage apparatus. December 19, 1961 3,014,180 / Tohn G. Leming, Niagara Falls, N. Y. / U. S. A. as represented by the Sec. of the Air Force / An electronic pulse weier. 3,014,202 / Lorenz Hanewinkel, Neukirchen, (;ermany / Zuse KG., Neukirchen, Germany / :\ selector for selecting channels. :1.014.20:1 / Louis D. Stevens, San Jose, Calif. / I. B. ~r. Corp., New York, N. Y. / .\n information storage matrix. :1.OI·1,2().f / Arthur W. Lo, Fords, N. l. and Hewitt D. Crane, Palo Alto, Calif. / R. C. A., a corp. of Del. / A magnetic ci rcui t. December 26, 1961 :1.OII,G!'12 / Alfred Zarouni, Brooklyn. :--:. Y. / Bell Telephone Lab., Inc., New York, N. Y. / An automatic data reader. ;U)l4,G54 / Raymond E. Wilser, U. S. ,\nny, and Harry M. Lawrence, "\Vare Neck P.O., Va. / I. B. ;\1. Corp., New York, N. Y. / A random storage input device. 3,014,G59 / Arthur H. Dickinson, Greenwich, Conn. / I. B. M. Corp., New York, N. Y. / An electronic integrating means for continuous variable quantities. ;1,014,GG2 / Charles R. Borders, Alpine. N. J. / 1. n. M. Corp., New York, N. Y. / Counters with serially connected delay units. 3,014,G63 / John W. Horton and Arthur G. Anderson, New York, N. Y. / I. n. M. Corp., New York, N. Y. / A binary full adder. 3,015,040 / Gerald A. Maley, Poughkeepsie. and William "\V. Boyle, La Grangeville, N. Y. / I. B. M. Corp., New York, N. Y. / A binary trigger circuit. 3,015,042 / Balthasar H. Pinckaers, Edina, ~1inn. / Minneapolis-Honeywell Regulator Co., Minneapolis, Minn. / A pulse responsive circuit with storage means. ;l,0IG,089 / Philip N. Armstrong, Santa Monica, Calif. / Hughes Aircraft Co .. Culver City, Calif. / A minimal storage sorter. :1,015,091 / James J. Nyberg, Torrance, and Alfred D. Scarbrough, Palos Verdes Estates, Calif. / Thompson Ramo 'Wooldridge, Inc., Cleveland, Ohio / A memory matrix control device. January 2, 196·2 3,015,441 / Edward F. Rent, Vestal, and Flavious ~I. Powell, Johnson City, N. Y. / I.B.M. Corp., New York, N. Y. / An indexing system for a stored program calculator. 3,015,442 / Arthur H. Dickinson, Greenwich, Corm. / I.B.M. Corp., New York, N. Y. / An electronic multiplier. :3,015,443 / Wendell S. Miller, 1341 Com· stock Ave., Los Angeles, Calif. / An electronic computer. 3,015,444 / Herbert A. Schneider, Coytesville, N. J. / Bell Telephone Lab., Inc., New York, N. Y. / A digital data generator circuit for computer testing. :\,015,445 / Toshio Kashio, Musashino, Japan / Uchida Yoko C~., L.im., Toyko, Japan / A relay type bl-qUlnary adder apparatus. 3,015,694 / Freddy David, Rochester, N. Y. / General Dynamics Corp., Rochester, N. Y. / A solid state binary code multiplexing and demultiplexing device. 3,015,708 / Warren P. Mason, We s t Orano-e, N. J. / Bell Telephone Lab., Inc., c New York, N. Y. / A combined memory storage and switching arrangement. :1.015,732 / Harry C. Kuntzleman, Newark Valley, and John G. Simek, Endicott, N. Y. / I.B.M. Corp., New York, N. Y. / A delayed roinsideme circuit. :1.015,783 / .Joseph P. Vignos, Binghamton, N. Y. and Donald P. Shoultes, Charleston, S. C. / 1. B. M. Corp., New York, N. Y. / A bipolar switching ring. 3,015,734 / John P. Jones, Jr., Pottstdwn, Pa. / Navigation Computer Corp., a corp. of Penn. / A transistor computer circuit. 3,015,807 / Arthur V. Pohm, White Bear Lake, Earl N. Mitchell, St. Paul, and Thomas D. Rossing, Northfield, ~linn. / Sperry Rand Corp., New York, N. Y. / A non-destructive sensing of a magnetic core. 3,015,808 / Nicolaas C. De Troye, Eindhoven, Netherlands / North American Philips Co., Inc., New York, N. Y. / :\ matrix-memory arrangement. 3,015,809 / Peter B. Myers, Millington, N. J. / Bell Telephone Lab., Inc., New York, N. Y. / A magnetic memory matrix. January 9, 1962 3,016,008 / Ralph Berger, Wellesley, and Hugh E. Harlow, Reading, Mass. / Anelex Corp., Boston, Mass. / A data processing apparatus. 3,016,195 / Arthur Hamburgen, Endicott, N. Y. / 1.B.M. Corp., New York, N. Y. / A binary multiplier. 3,016,196 / Paul Mallery, Murray Hill, N. J. / Bell Telephone Lab., Inc., N PII York., N. Y. / An arithmetic carry generator. 3,016,466 / Richard K. Richards, OIJ Troy Road, Wappingers Falls, N. Y. / - - - / A logical circut. :\,0IG,470 / Gilbert A. Van Dine, Madison, N. J. / Bell Telephone Lab., Inc., New York, N. Y. / A shift register. 3,016,516 / Charles H. Doersam, Jr., 24 Winthrope Rd., Port 'Washington, N. Y. / - - - / A pulse code multiplexing system. 3,016,517 / Burton R. Saltzberg, New Providence, N. J. / Bell Telephone Lab., Inc., New York, N. Y. / A redundant logic circuitry. :\,016,521 / John H. McGuigan, New Providence, N. J. / Bell Telephone Lab., Inc., New York, N. Y. / A magnetic core memory matrix. 3,016,522 / Norman M. Lourie, Watertown, and Kenneth E. Perry, Newton, Mass. / Minneapolis-Honeywell Regula· tor Co., Minneapolis, Minn. / An in· formation storage apparatus using a l"CCord medium. 3,016.523 / John J. Sharp, Stevena.~e, Eng. / International Computers and Tabu· lators, Lim., London, Eng. / An infoI" mation storage system. 3,016,524 / Arthur G. Edmunds, 69 Warwick Ave., Edgware, Eng. /---/ An information storage system. 3,0l(),527 / Edgar N. Gilbert, Whippany. and Edward F. Moore, Chatham, N . .J. / Bell Telephone Lab., Inc., New York, N. Y. / An apparatus for utilizing variable length alphabetized codes. January 16. 1962 3,017,082 / Reginald L. Riddiford, Birmingham, and Frank Salisbury, Coventry, Eng. / General Electric Co., Lim., London, Eng. / A device for sensing punched cards, tapes or other members. COMPUTERS alld AUTOl\lATION for 1\Iarch, I!lG2 GREI N D In t bili grc, mr ~ra intf pcr acti ers Th( ext< line stn upc For by Sto on acti lnt( acti intc E II C07\1 at .A.LJT
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