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SCIENCE & TECHNOl-o ~
August, 1971
Vol. 20, No.8
co
"Seahorses"
9th Annual
Computer Art Contest
First Prize
IN THIS ISSUE:
The Uses of Computers
in a Political Campaign
-
I
I '
Edward Yourdon
A Systems Approach
to Job Hunting
j
-
Thomas V. Sobczak
The Japanese Computer Market
-
•
i.
99045
0104
*01271
"
Stephen T. McClellan
The New York Times and
Computers and Automation
have published a practical guide to
the most elusive components in
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computers and data processing ...
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Who they are ...
What they do ...
Where they do it ...
Until now, it has been well-nigh impossible to keep track of the thousands of highly skilled professionals
fngaged in the world's fastest growmg profession.
The painstaking task required to inventDlY the qualifications and backgrounds
of the 15,000 "most necessary" professionals in every branch of the computer field has been accomplished. The
oldest magazine in the field, Computers
and Automation, and the information
retrieval selVices of The New York
Times have pooled their resources to
produce the Fifth Edition of
WHO'S WHO IN
COMPUTERS AND
DATA PROCESSING
This is the most extensive register of
computer professionals ever published.
It is arranged in three volumes:
1. Systems Analysts and Programmers
2. Data Processing Managers and
Directors
3. Other Computer Professionals
(from professors of computer science to attorneys versed in the
computer field)
Each volume has an index to the entire
set of entries.
Each compu ter specialist has a capsule
biography detailing: Birth Date . ..
Education . .. Year Entered Computer
Field . .. Title . .. Honors . .. Memberships . .. Special Skills (from applications to logic to sales) ...
PLUS both home and business addresses. For example:
CHAPIN, Ned I consultant I born: 1927 I
educ: PhD, lIT; MBA, Univ of Chicago I
entered computer field: 1954 I main interests: applications, business, logic, management, programming, systems, data
structures I title: data processing consultant I organization: InfoSci Inc, Box 464,
Menlo Park, CA 94025 I publications,
honors: 3 books, over 50 papers; member,
over 12 associations; COP; lecturer for
ACM I home address: 1190 Bellair Way,
Menlo Park, CA 94025
This reference is particularly useful for:
personnel managers; employers; recruiting organizations; libraries; conference
planners; directors of computer installations; ... anyone who needs to keep up
with the important people in the field.
FIFTH EDITION - Over 1000 pages
The coupon below will bring you the 3volume set at the price of $75. There is
no risk involved. 10-Day Free Examination.
WHO'S WHO IN COMPUTERS
AND DATA PROCESSING
Edited by Edmund C. Berkeley
3 volumes in durable hard-cover
bindings
Retail price $75 the set
---------(may be copied on any piece ofpaper)--------I
Who's Who in Computers and Data Processing,
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DO YOU WANT TO
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stimulate your resourcefulness?
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IF SO, TRY
The C&A
Notebool~
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devoted to research, development, exposition, and illustration of one of the most important
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=
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Methods for Avoiding Mistakes + Some Operations Research + Some Systems Analysis + ................ .
Editor: Edmund C. Berkeley, author, businessrn~~
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first secretary of the Association f(
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of Computers and Automation.
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- - - - - - - - - - - - -,
Vol. 20, No.8
August, 1971
CDlY1puters
and automation
The magazine of the design, applications, and implications
of information processing systems.
Editor
Edmund C. Berkeley
/lHistant Editors
linda Ladd Lovett
Neil D. Macdonald
Software Editor
Stewart B. Nelson
AdtJe1'tising
Directo1'
Edmund C. Berkeley
Art Di"ectors
Contributing
Editors
Advisory
Committee
Computer Art
NINTH ANNUAL COMPUTER ART CONTEST
1
8
9
Sea Horses
Derby Scanlon
Derby Scanlon
Sailfish
Phoenix
Derby Scanlon
Deer and Fir Trees
Grace C. Hertlein
Leonard Kilian and Campion Kulczynski
Black Star
Sozo Hashimoto
Paisley Patterns
Natura Mainensis
Ed Jenner
Bridge Over Troubled Water Goran Sundquist
Reflections
Thomas J. Huston
Drakula
Dr. Herbert W. Franke
Computer Structure
P. Struycken
20,000 Lines Under the Sea Ruth E. Dayhoff and Elaine A. Roberts
Floating Points
Manfred Mohr
Serielle Zeichenreihung
Manfred Mohr
A Formal Language
Manfred Mohr
Snow Crystals
Lloyd Sumner
Don Quixote
James Daly
Names and Addresses of Computer Artists Who Entered the
1971 Contest
Ray W. Hass
Daniel T. Langdale
10
John Bennett
Moses M. Berlin
Andrew D. Booth
John W. Carr III
Ned Chapin
Alston S. Householder
Leslie Mezei
Ted Schoeters
Richard E. Sprague
16
James J. Cryan
Alston S. Householder
Bernard Quint
[T A]
1
13
14
17
17
18
18
19
20
20
21
22
23
23
Computers and Politics
Editorial Offices
Berkeley Enterprises, Inc.
815 Washington St.,
Newtonville, Mass. 02160
617-332-5453
Advertising
Contact
THE PUBLISHER
Berkeley Enterprises, Inc.
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Computers and Automation is published monthly
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Change of address: If your address changes,
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4
24
THE USES OF COMPUTERS IN A POLITICAL CAMPAIGN [T A]
by Edward Yourdon, Consultant
A review of some of the techniques that a political
candidate and his scientific advisers may use, in order to
locate, attract, and recruit supporters of the candidate.
Computer Professionals
31
[T A]
A SYSTEMS APPROACH TO JOB HUNTING
by Thomas V. Sobczak, Manager, Systems and Electronic
Data Processing, Waldes Kohinoor, Inc.
Howa computer professional can apply the systems
analysis of his profession to locating and securing a
"perfect" job for himself.
Computers Abroad
28
THE JAPANESE COMPUTER MARKET - CHARACTERISTICS
ADVERSELY AFFECTING U. S. TRADE INTERESTS
.... Part One
[T A]
by Stephen T. McClellan, Analyst, U. S. Department of
Commerce
Japan~se research, technology, and production have advanced
to the point where Japanese computers are internationally
competitive; how the Japanese are marketing their computers so as to penetrate markets everywhere.
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for Auqust, 1971
Computers and Education
6
LEARNER-CONTROLLED COMPUTER-ASSISTED
INSTRUCTION
[T E]
by Edmund C. Berkeley, Editor, Computers and Automation
Basically, there seem to be three different kinds of computerassisted instruction, and the "learner controlled" kind may
produce enormous gains.
Computers, Science, and Assassinations
37
JIM GARRISON, DISTRICT ATTORNEY, ORLEANS PARISH,
[NT A]
VS. THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT
by Bernard Fensterwald, Attorney, Executive Director,
National Committee to Investigate Assassinations
How District Attorney Jim Garrison of New Orleans became
interested in the New Orleans phase of the assassination of
President Kennedy; and how the federal government frus"
trated and blocked his investigation in more than a dozen
ways.
Forum and Golden Trumpet
42
36
[NT G]
THE PENTAGON PAPERS AND DANIEL ELLSBERG
by Daniel Ellsberg, M. I. T., and the Editor
The history of lying about Vietnam, by the federal government including the Pentagon; what Ellsberg has said; and how
the military industrial complex is really interested not in the
security of the United States but in something else.
SKEPTICISM OF OFFICIAL GOVERNMENT
[NT F]
EXPLANATIONS
by James D. White and the Editor
Why is it that less specialized publications than C&A, most
of which have a clear duty in the area of getting at the truth,
exhibit little of the interest of C&A at getting at the truth?
Is normal human behavior about a new idea to deny it?
Front Cover Picture
"Sea Horses", winner of the
first prize in C&A's Ninth Annual
Computer Art Contest, was produced by a FORTRAN program
run on a GE 425 computer and
plotted on a Calcomp 30" drum
plotter. The artist is Derby Scanlon, Phoenix, Arizona. For more
information, see page 8.
Departments
47
47
48
48
49
53
54
Across the Editor's Desk
Applications
Education News
Research Frontier
Miscellaneous
Advertising Index
Calendar of Coming
Events
Classified Advertisement
53
Monthly Computer
Census
New Contracts
New Installations
52
50
51
Computers and Puzzles
30
Numbles, by Neil Macdonald
[T C]
53
Problem Corner, by Walter Penney, CDP
[T C]
Key
NOTICE
* D ON YOUR ADDRESS IMPRINT
MEANS THAT YOUR SUBSCRlp·
TION INCLUDES THE COMPUTER
DIRECTORY. * N MEANS THAT
YOUR
PRESENT
SUBSCRIPTION
DOES NOT INCLUDE THE COMPUTER DIRECTORY.
COMPUTERS
and AUTOMATION for August, 1971
[A]
[C]
[E]
[F]
[G]
-
Article
Monthly Column
Editorial
Forum
Golden Trumpet
[NT] - Not Technical
[R] - Reference Information
[T] - Technical Computer
Information
5
c. a
EDITORIAL
Learner-Co.ntrolled Computer-Assisted Instruction
From the point of view of teaching, there seem to be
nowadays three basically different kinds of computer-assisted instruction:
1. Single-path programmed instruction. In this mode
(Mode 1) a teacher or educa'l:ional psychologist
(curren t jargon, "instructional expert") decides
just what the student should learn at each step or
unit. These decisions may (or may not) be confirmed with a professor or scholar (current jargon,
"subject-matter expert"). The sequence of steps
then becomes a computer program; and all that
the student can do with this program (in this
mode) is to go through the programmed instruction faster or slower than the average student.
2. Several-path programmed instruction. In this mode
(Mode 2) the teacher allows the student to choose
from time to time (or actually shunts the student)
between several tracks: usually a fast track, a slow
track, and an average track. In Mode 1 every unit
in the fast track is present in the average track, and
every unit in the average track is present in the
slow track. But in Mode 2 each of the tracks may
contain some units not present in either of the
other two tracks.
3. Infinitely many paths of learning within an interactive computer program. In this mode (Mode 3)
for each topic, the student explores and learns
interactively, until he knows what is to be learned
under that topic. The computer program responds
interactively - gives him answers, questions, hints,
responses of many kinds, etc., which a student
may want or may need. The computer-assisted
instructional program may fill one or more roles
such as: teacher, author, personal tutor, drill sergeant, calculating prodigy, experimenting prodigy,
memory prodigy, scorekeeper, guide, philosopher,
and friend. We can call this mode (Mode 3)
learner-controlled computer assisted instruction.
How shall we decide which one of these modes is best
(current jargon: "optimal")?
:
.
In order to decide which one is best, we need to conSIder
a number of scales along which we might measure from one
extreme of very poor to the other extreme of very good.
These might include:
- Amount of time required to learn
- Cost
Satisfaction and enjoyment for the student
Ease of teaching for the teacher
Motivation of the student, from very weak or
absen t to very strong or overwhelming
- Quality of the knowledge or training learned
Then the best method of instruction would be that
which:
Takes almost no time
Takes almost no effort
6
Costs almost nothing
Is very enjoyable and satisfying
Is ext~emely easy for the teacher to teach
Provides great motivation
Produces complete knowledge or skill
In fact, there actually exist some learning processes that
are extremely good in all these respects, such as:
Learning to eat free ice cream
Learning to take deep breaths of fresh mountain
air
With the arrival of cheap computing power, the third
mode - infinitely many paths of learning - is, it seems to
me, very likely to produce an enormous jump in the use
and profitability of computer-assisted instruction in all
subjects.
1. Time. The time required to learn can be adapted
to the particular student - his nature and his
. needs.
2. Effort. As a result of the interaction between the
student and the learner-controlled computerassisted instruction in a computer program, the
effort by the student can be lessened and lessened.
3. Cost. In days to come, the use of an entire
minicomputer to teach, will cost less than 15 cents
an hour.
4. Enjoyment. The satisfaction and the enjoyment
for the student can become greater and greater.
Driving a computer will become as much fun as
driving a car.
S. Ease of Teaching. Almost all the teacher will have
to do is to arrange a computer program which can
deal with all the natural questions and natural
troubles of a student. The program should respond
sensibly to each of the student's needs or wants as
it is expressed. For a few years, the computer will
usually need letters or digits typed on a keyboard
- but later on the computer will respond to letters
or digits spoken.
6. Motivation. As H. G. Wells said in "Men Like
Gods", his novel of a fine Utopia, "curiosity, the
play impulse" will become the great motivator.
7. Quality of Learning. The student finishes his learning - not when the course period comes to an end
- but when he has, attained the goals of an
adequate or a complete knowledge.
In years to come, in fact, the results of learner-controlled computer-assisted instruction may be placed among
the most'important of all benefits derived from computers.
Edmund C. Berkeley
EDITOR,
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for August, 1971
21 ways to improve your
computer system's performance.
Here are some of over 150 IBM program products to help
your computer do more work. And do it more profitably.
There's a program that lets your salesman se'arch the
computer's file while he's got a customer on the phone.
A program that helps your company's executives decide
which products to make, when to make them, where to ship them.
There are programs that help your programmers become
more productive. By letting them spend more time writing programs, less time debugging them.
If you'd like a complete description of these and other programs, just fill in the coupon below. Or call your local IBM office.
Languages, sorts, time sharing
1.
PL/I Optimizing Compiler (OS, DOS)
Offers greatly increased execution, new language features, improved debugging aids
and communication with existing FORTRAN
and COBOL object modules.
2.
ANS Full COBOL Version 3 (OS, DOS)
Contains major improvements in debugging
aids, additional functions and ASCII support.
3.
FORTRAN IV (H Extended) Compiler (OS)
Supports extended precision arithmetic, two
new forms of input/output for ease of use, and
improved compilation speed and reliability.
4.
Interactive Terminal Facility (ITF) (OS,
DOS) Provides time sharing for problem
solvers using BASIC and Interactive PL/I.
5.
OS-Sort/Merge 1 (OS-SM1) (OS) Improved speed and functions over previous
as sorts. Provides support for IBM 3330 Disk
Storage.
6.
Assembler H (OS) A new high performance assembler language processor for as
users. Requires no reprogramming or conversion for current as assembler users.
7.
1130 COBOL Specifically designed compiler featuring high speed compilation and
fast execution for small to medium IBM 1130
users.
8.
APL/3S0 (OS, DOS) A user-oriented program with a language designed for problem
solving and a time sharing capability that lets
many users work independently at the same
time.
Data entry, data base
9.
Customer Information Control System
(CICS) (OS, DOS) The link between your
computer's data base and the applications
you want to put on-line. By providing many
of the standard control functions, CICS lets
your programmers concentrate on coding the
applications. Helps you save implementation
time and cost.
10. Data/3S0 (OS, DOS)
A general purpose
data-entry program. Data is entered and
verified through IBM displays, edited and
written out on disk files.
16.
11.
17.
Data Base Organization and Maintenance Processor (DOS) A system to integrate
data files into a central data base for query
applications· involving existing multiple customer files.
12. Generalized Information System/2
(GIS/2) (OS) A high-level query and file
maintenance system particularly useful for
meeting spontaneous information requirements or handling repetitive jobs.
Information M~nagement System/3S0
(IMS/3S0) Version 2 (OS) Facilitates use of
medium to large common data bases and
accommodates teleprocessing and batch
processing, concurrently or separately.
Applications
14. Project Management System IV (PMS
IV) (OS) A powerful program in modular
form for resource allocation, cost analysis
and precedence input analysis.
13.
15.
Requirements Planning (OS) A materials management system designed to determine what, when and how much to order in a
manner that will help minimize component
inventories.
Shop Floor Control (OS, DOS) Establishes and maintains a shop order data base
and provides for shop order release, status
and inquiry for timely management decisions.
Consumer Goods System-Forecasting
and Allocation (OS, DOS' Determines what
amounts of fini"shed goods to make, order or
ship to stocking locations to satisfy multiple
objectives.
18.
General Purpose Simulation System V
(GPSS V) (OS, DOS) Powerful, easy-to:use
tool for Simulating the behavior of systems in
engineering and management sciences.
19.
Bill of Material Processor (System/3
ModelS and Model 10 Disk) Establishes and
maintains basic manufacturing files describing the structure of products and their manufacturing procedures.
20. Law Enforcement Manpower Resource
Allocation System (OOS) Provides ability to
determine field manpower requirements, on
as-needed basis and future-plans basis.
21.
Mathematical Programming System
Extended (MPSX) and Mixed Integer Programming (MIP) (OS) A new, economic optimization system offering greatly extended
modeling capabilities.
r-----------------------------------------Director, Programming Systems Marketing
Dept.807CA
IBM Corporation
1133 Westchester Avenue
White Plains, New York 10604
Please send me information on these Program Products:
o Languages, sorts, time sharing
o Data entry, data base
IBM
.
®
o Applications
Name __________________________________________________________________________________
Title __________________________________________________________________________________
Company ______________________________________________________________________
Add res s,______________________________________________________ Z i p ______________
NINTH ANNUAL COMPUTER ART CONTEST
SAILFISH
- Derby Scanlon (U. S. A. )
The first prize in our 1971 Computer Art Contest
has been awarded to Derby Scanlon, 1308 W. Whitton
Ave., Phoenix, Arizona 85013. The winning entry,
"Sea Horses", has been published on the front cover of
this issue. Two other entries, "Sailfish" and "Phoenix",
are shown above and on the page opposite.
"Sea Horses ", "Sailfish" and "Phoenix" were created
using a common building block, which was computed and
plotted by one subroutine. The main programs for the
8
three designs control the sizes and positions of the building blocks. Almost all of each figure is described mathematic ally, with only a few portions positioned manually
(via data cards). The plots were produced by FORTRAN
programs run on aGE 425 computer, and plotted on a
Calcomp 30" drum plotter.
The computer art on the pages which follow receives
honorable mention. For some of the drawings, the explanation is obvious or c an be inferred easily; for others,
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for August, 1971
explanations are given. In a number of cases, the computer and the peripheral equipment which produced the
drawings have not been specified as much as we would
like, because that information did not reach us by the
close of the contest. We would, of course, like to
identify the equipment that produced the art. Supplementary information of this kind should be sent to us
for publication in a future issue.
The response to our Ninth Annual Computer Art
Contest was very good. We received over 140 computer
drawings from allover the world - Czechoslovakia,
France, Holland, Japan, Sweden, and the United States.
We are grateful to all those persons who sent us entries.
A complete alphabetical listing of the names and addresses of all persons who submitted entries in this year's
contest appears on the last page of the art section of this
issue. In forthcoming issues of Computers and Automation,
we hope to publish some of the drawings we were not able
to include in this issue.
For August, 1972, we plan our Tenth Annual Computer Art Contest, and we cordially invite contributions
of computer art from all our readers and others who are
interested in computer art.
PHOENIX
- Derby Scanlon
(U. S.A.)
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for August, 1971
9
DEER AND FIR TREES
- Grace C. Hertlein (U. S. A.)
This drawing is a by-product from a course entitled "ComputerGraphics as an Art Form", taught by Miss Grace C. Hertlein,
Assistant Professor, Computer Science Dept., Chico State
College, Chico, California.
10
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for August, 1971
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BLACK STAR
- Leonard Kilian and Campion Kulczynski (U. S. A.)
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Lines emanate from a point in the interior of a sphere formed by randomly perturbed sine
waves. FORTRAN language was employed on a Univac 1107 with a Calcomp 563 plotter.
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PAISLEY PATTERNS
- Sozo Hashimoto (Japan)
11
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These five paisley shawl patterns
evolved from an experiment to
develop a new design method. In
this experiment, an IBM 7040 computer programmed in FORTRAN IV
was used.
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COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for August, 1971
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15
16
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for August, 1971
NATURA MAINENSIS
Ed Jenner (U. S. A.)
The drawing at the left is a random design produced by an analog computer.
For more information, see the last page of the art section in this issue.
BRIDGE OVER TROUBLED WATER
Goran Sundquist (Sweden).
This is one of several pictures computed by
the same program, "Dart computer art
algorithm", with different parameters.
The computer is the Swedish Datasaab
D22 in connection with the Tektronix
611-display. The display is photographed
on microfilm for high contrast.
Copyright 1971, Thomas J. Huston, Computl'a
REFLECTIONS
Thomas J. Huston
(U. S.A.)
Two sine curves of varying amplitude
and period are generated from random
values and then added together. The
resultant curve' is then plotted representing the land. The water is obtained
by repeatedly plotting a smaller sine
wave while constantly changing its
period, amplitude, and spacing. An
IBM 1130 and Calcomp Plotter were
used.
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for August, 1971
17
DRAKULA
- Dr. Herbert W. Franke
(West Germany)
COMPUTER STRUC TURE
- P. Struycken (Holland)
The output from the computer was via the line
printer; the computer
is an X8. The program
has elements of random
opposite restrictions.
18
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for August, 1971
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20,000 LINES
UNDER THE SEA
- Ruth E. Dayhoff
and
Elaine A. Roberts
(U. S. A.)
The program for this
drawing was written
in FORTRAN and run
on an IBM 360/44
computer. The program computed the
points for the linegrid drawing and
produced a plotter
tape. The draWing
was made on a
Calcomp 565 offline plotter.
-0
FLOATING POINTS
- Manfred Mohr (France)
A family of closed and parallel curves are calculated
by a combination of moving circles, and a third
degree spline function is used for interpolation.
This program (no. 62) was written in FORTRAN IV
and run on a CDC 6400 computer. The graphics
are drawn on a Benson plotter.
:SERIELLE :ZEICH.ENREIHUNG
. - Manfred Mohr (Fr,ance)
This drawing is ',builtfrom -vertic:al columns~ where the horizontallength is randomly chosen. The total horizontal length
sums to a given ·nuniber,. In.the form of a 10gica1 tree, symbols can be generated and will be repeated until the already
chosen horizontal length is :reached. The height of the columns depends on the size of the chosen symbols. In each
column a symbol can appear twice. (This was Program no. 71.)
20
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for August, 1971
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A FORMAL LANGUAGE
Manfred Mohr (France)
A set built out of circles (the radius is randomly chosen) and symbols
of zero to 7 straight lines was generated by Program 28 (horizontals,
verticals, and 4S:> lines). Then these are arranged by Program 49 in
equal distances on an imaginary grid of 1280 boxes (1 cm x 1 cm). The
circles have a high probability of placement outside the boxes. This
drawing gives the effect of hieroglyphic writing.
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for August, 1971
21
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Copyright 1970 by Computer Creations
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SNOW CRYSTALS
Lloyd Sumner (U. S. A.)
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Produced with the aid of a Burroughs B5500 and a Calcomp 565, using controlled randomness in a fairly accurate model of
snowflake development. Each call on the procedure produces a different snowflake; each one has six symmetrical sides
and 60 degree angles. (Brochures describing Mr. Sumner's work in computer art are available on request from Computer
Creations, P. O. Box 1842, Charlottesville, Va. 22903.)
D ON QUIXOTE
James Daly (U. S. A.)
A lithograph of the original "Don Quixote"
by Picasso was digitized, producing these
images. The original was distorted slightly,
and multiple images were plotted using
standard Calcomp software on a Control
Data 3300.
COMPUTER ARTISTS
The following is an alphabetical listing of all persons who
submitted entries in the Ninth Annual Computer Art Contest
of Computers and Automation. The names of persons
whose drawings are published in this issue are marked
with an asterisk (*). We are planning to publish in the
future some of the drawings we were not able to include
in this issue.
Bromley, Charles, Computra, Box 608, Upland, IN 46989
Chlouba, Jan, Sudanski 597, Prague 6, Czechoslovakia
Corley, Henry P. T., Analog Computing, P. O. Box 3043,
Richmond, VA 23235
*Daly, James, St. Louis University, Yalem Scientific
Computer Center, 3690 W. Pine Blvd., St. Louis,
MO 63108
* Dayhoff, Ruth E., National Biomedical Research Foundation, Georgetown Univ. Medical School, 3900 Reservoir
Rd., N. W., Washington, DC 20007
Foley, Dr. G. J., American Oil Co., 2400 New York Ave.,
Whiting, IN 46394
*Franke, Dr. Herbert W., 8191 Puppling Nr. 40, West
Germany
Gerding, Paul R., St. Louis University, Yalem Scientific Computer Center, 3690 W. Pine Blvd., St.
Louis, MO 63108
Grysiewicz, E. S., American Oil Co., 2400 New York
Ave., Whiting, IN 46394
*Hashimoto, Sozo, 28-2 2-chome Komazawa, SetagayaKu, Tokyo, Japan
Hendricks, Mrs. Leigh, Sandia Laboratories, P. O. Box
5800, Albuquerque, NM 87115
*Hertlein, Grace C., Computer Science Dept., Chico
State College, Chico, CA 95926
*Huston, Thomas J., Computra, Box 608, Upland,
IN 46989
*Jenner, Ed, The Boston Globe, 135 Wm. T. Morrissey
Blvd., Boston, MA 02125
Kawano, Hiroshi, 3-16-1-15, Aoto, Katsushika-ku,
Tokyo, Japan
*Kilian, Leonard, 37 Burnham Dr., W. Hartford, CT
06010
Knowlton, Ken, Bell Telephone Labs., Inc., Murray
Hill, NJ 07974
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for August, 1971
*Kulczynski, Campion, Box 178, Notre Dame, IN 46556
Kunii, Mutsuko, 1-18-17-chome Syoan, Suginami-Ku,
Tokyo, Japan
Lipscomb, James S., 26 Woodfall Rd., Belmont, MA 02178
Magnuski, Hank, Bell Telephone Labs., Murray Hill,
NJ 07974
Maynard, H. M., Cornell Aeronautical Laboratory, Inc. of
Cornell University, P. O. Box 235, Buffalo, NY 14221
Mittleman, Don, Box 178, Notre Dame, IN 46556
*Mohr, Manfred, 58 Bld. Latour-Maubourg, Paris 7,
France
Munday, B. C. , III, Systems Engrg. Labs., 6901 W. Sunrise Blvd., Ft. Lauderdale, FL 33313
Robbins, Dr. Donald K., Sandia Laboratories, P. O. Box
5800, Albuquerque, NM 87115
*Roberts, Elaine A., National Biomedical Research
Foundation, Georgetown Univ. Medical School, 3900
Reservoir Rd., N. W., Washington, DC 20007
*Scanlon, Derby, 1308 W. Whitton Ave., Apt. 3,
Phoenix, AZ 85013
Schwartz, Lillian, Bell Telephone Labs., Inc., Murray
Hill, NJ 07974
Seeley, R. W., McDonnell Douglas Automation Co., 3855
Lakewood Blvd., Long Beach, CA 90801
Shah, Bharat K., 240 N. Minnesota, Wichita, KS 67214
Strand, Kerry, Calcomp, 2411 W. La Palma, Anaheim,
CA 92801
*Struycken, P., Spoorwegstraat 35a, Arnheim, Holland
*Sumner, Lloyd, Computer Creations, P. O. Box 1842,
Charlottesville, VA 22903
* Sundquist, Go'ran, Kraftdata Aktiebolag, Box 3118,
103 62, Stockholm 3, Sweden
Volkstorf, Charles, 3712 Shoreline Dr., Portsmouth,
VA 23703
Volkstorf, Ed, DCSLOG Data Processing Center,
D-Division, RAAP, Radford, VA 24141
Natura Mainensis: The analog computer is the Penobscot
River in Maine. The graphic display is Seboomook Lake.
The elements are logs. Photograph from a helicopter by
Ed Jenner. Reprinted with permission from The Boston
Globe, June 5, 1971, with much appreciation.
23
'T.HE USES OF C'OMPUTERS INA POLITICAL CAMPAIGN
"There is reason to believe that the use of computers will increase significantly during the nex t few election campaigns. The level of familiarity with computers among professional politicians and political scientists has increased
tremendously. "
Edward Y ourdon
527 Third St.
Brooklyn. N.Y. 11215
It has been more than ten years since John F. Kennedy
first made significant use of a digital computer in his 1960
Presidential campaign. Since that time, the public's interest
in the political uses of compu ters has been aroused only on
infrequent occasions: occasional blunders on the part of
election prediction programs put together by the major
networks; occasional revelations that some political candidates are using computers to improve the efficiency of their
mailing campaigns; occasional books that dramatize the use
of computers in a campaign, such as Eugene Burdick's, The
480.
However, there is reason to believe that the use of
computers will increase significantly during the next few
election campaigns; the level of familiarity with computers
among the professional politicians and the political scientists has increased tremendously. Since in terest in the 1972
campaign has already begun to grow at this early date, it
might be apj)fopriate to review some of the techniques that
will be used to locate, attract and recruit constituents
during the next couple of years.
For the most part, political organizations have only
made use of the computer's ability to print information and
manipulate numbers; there has been very little, if any, use
of the computer's ability to select, retrieve and analyze
information. The purpose of this paper is to point out that
computers could be used to help the political organization
store and retrieve information easily; for completeness,
some of the more straightforward uses of computers are
also described.
There are three major areas in which a computer would
be helpful: organizational and record-keeping activities;
statistical analyses and simulations; and information retrieval and political "intelligence". Each of these categories
is discussed below.
Organizational Activities
Any political organization must perform a number of
rather mundane functions, many of which are traditionally
carried out by volunteer workers. The advantage of the
volunteer worker is, of course, that he is unpaid. The
24
computer, though sometimes expensive, has the advantage
that it is fast, thorough, and less error-prone in the area of
simple, tedious clerical activities.
Some of the clerical activities that could be carried out
by a computer are the following:
Mailing Lists
Mailing lists represent one of the simplest applications of
computers. Voter registration lists, or any other list of
people, can be maintained on magnetic tape, and the
computer can easily be programmed to generate mailing
labels whenever the organization wants to mail some political literature.
Since this use of compu ters has attracted a good deal of
attention within the advertising and business community
lately, we might discuss some developments which might be
of interest in a political campaign. The paper industry, for
example, now supplies a number of different types of
pre-fabricated "packages" in a form ready to be used on a
high-speed printer. These packages can include a letter
already inserted into an envelope, and the computer can be
programmed to simultaneously print the address on the
envelope, and, with the use of carbon paper or other
"impact" techniques, a greeting or short message on the
letter inside. This eliminates human handling of the letter
altogether; unfortunately, it is often done so sloppily that
the recipient knows that the letter has nev.er been touched
by human hands.
It should also be remembered that a large number of
organizations, including magazines, government agencies
and advertising firms have mailing lists available for sale. If.
for example, one wanted to send some political literature to
members of the scientific community, it would be a
relatively simple matter to obtain the mailing lists of
various scientific journals and trade magazines, already on
magnetic tape. Similar techniques could be used to reach
the business community, the academic community, the
"playboy" community, etc.
The computer can also be used to generate "personalized" letters from a candidate. Given a form letter and
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for August, 1971
various pieces of information about the recipient of the
letter (such as his name, address, party affiliation, vocation,
birthday, etc.), the computer could be programmed to
"write" a letter on the high-speed printer. The type font on
some of the better printers, such as IBM's 1403 printer, is
of sufficiently good quality that the letter would almost
appear to be typewritten. Once again, a certain amount of
care is important, if the letter is to have any impact at all: if
the letter is going to be sent to Mr. John Smith, Jr., and a
sloppily-written program causes the letter to be addressed
to "Dear Mr. J r.:", the candidate may well have lost a vote.
The same thing happens in the advertising world, of course,
but the stakes are not quite as high.
When the mailing list is encoded on magnetic tape (or
disk, or cards, or any other reasonable storage medium), as
much information as possible should be maintained for
each voter. That is, in addition to the voter's name and
address, the mailing list record should indicate his age,
party affiliation, number of children, type of job, salary
range, and anything else that might be politically significant. This will permit a computer program to select voters
with specified attributes; such a program might be used, for
example, to select all unemployed minority Army veterans
for distribution of a particular leaflet.
The computer could also be used to introduce a little
more flexibility into the candidate's schedule. For example,
if it was discovered that the candidate had more time
available in a certain city or state than had originally been
anticipated, the computer could indicate the alternate
campaign activities for that area. In the opposite vein, if the
candidate discovered that he was falling behind schedule, or
that he did not have enough time to visit a particular state
or city, the computer could indicate which campaign stops
could be rescheduled, and which ones would have to be
cancelled.
Statistical Analyses and Simulation
There has been a great deal of interest in this area,
especially since the television networks have begun to use
computers to predict the outcome of elections. It cannot be
overemphasized that the success of predictions, polls and
simulations depends almost entirely on the proper interpretation of the statistics, something which no computer can
do without some help from an intelligent political analyst.
However, given the proper direction, there is no doubt that
a computer can be extremely helpful in the gathering and
analysis of complex political data. Some of the areas that
might be of interest are the following:
Fund-Raising Apparatus
Another use of a computer might be to keep track of the
fund-raising apparatus of the political organization. Thus,
the computer could maintain a list of all contributors to
local, state and national campaigns, as well as revenue from
other sources, such as fund-raising dinners, charities, etc.
In addition to simply maintaining a list of contributors,
the computer could also be used to help prod them into
more donations. For example, the computer could regularly
print a list of all contributors who had not made any
donations for six months or more; similarly, it could
identify "regular" contributors, so that they could be
personally cajoled into additional contributions.
It is worth noting that this type of computerized
fund-raising apparatus might eventually be desirable, or
even necessary, from a legal point of view. If tighter laws
regarding campaign expenditures are ever passed, it might
be preferable to have a computer keep the records, rather
than an error-prone human being.
I
Scheduling of Activities
A national campaign becomes progressively more hectic
as Election Day draws near, and the candidate's time must
be scheduled carefully. In addition, it is important to
schedule the time of other key operatives in the campaign,
many of whom may function somewhat independently of
the candidate.
Traditionally, schedules have been maintained by one of
the candidate's campaign aides. In the long run, this might
prove to be less expensive than a computer; nevertheless,
there are a number of intriguing things that could be carried
out with the aid of a computer. For example, the computer
could map out the most "efficient" campaign trail (in a
fashion similar to the type of optimization that has been
done for trucking firms, salesmen, etc.), given information
about the relative importance of campaigning in certain
states or cities at certain times. This might eliminate some
unnecessary travelling, and ensure that the candidate is in
the key states at the right time.
COMPUTERS and AUTOMA nON for August, 1971
Polls and Opinion Trends
Clearly, polls could easily be taken without the use of
computers: the only thing that is really required is a few
people to interview random samples of the voting pUblic.
The advantage of a computer is that it would allow polling
to be done on a continual basis. Campaign workers in
widely separated areas of the country could sample random
elements of the public on a daily basis; the results could be
fed into the computer from remote terminals, or they could
be telephoned to workers at the central computer site. The
computer could then issue frequent reports on the candidate's popularity (or lack of it), and other voter opinion
trends.
It is not at all clear that frequent computerized polls
would be worth the expense of the computer; as we
mentioned above, volunteer workers are much less expensive. However, there might be some value associated with
the fact that the computer can tabulate its results very
quickly - in the extreme case, we could have a real-time
polling system, for the politicians whose egos need to be
assuaged continually; manual analysis, on the other hand,
might take several days. This might be important if the
candidate or his political advisors want to measure the
reaction to an opponent'sspeech, so that he could make an
immediate reply. Also, it should be pointed out that if a
computer is available for other purposes, it would require
very little extra work to write the poll-analyzing program;
in fact, the same volunteer labor that was used to manually
gather and analyze the polls might perhaps be put to work
to write the programs!
I
Voting Trends
Another use of compu ters would be to analyze the
results of past elections on a state-by-state or precinct-byprecinct basis. This analysis could begin now, since the
1970 election returns are readily available. An analysis of
the vote over the past ,four to ten years could indicate
important shifts in party strengths, ticket-splitting habits,
25
ethnic preferences, voter disenchantment, popularity of
certain issues (e.g., the ubiquitous war, the economy,
law-and-order, etc.), and so forth, assuming, of course, that
one knows how to properly interpret the statistics.
The analysis of past elections might thus provide useful
information at the beginning of the 1972 campaign; it
would indicate, for example, where more intensive campaigning was necessary and where the key precincts were
located, as of 1968 or 1970. More important, the same
analysis program might be used to digest the results of the
1972 primary campaign, so that an even more up-to-date
picture of voting trends could be given.
Simulation of the Convention and the Election
Statistics on opinion trends and voting trends can be
even more useful if they are combined into a simulation, or
a compu terized model, of the election. In much the same
way that computers can be used to conduct military war
games, they could be used to conduct political campaign
"games". One is reminded, of course, of the criticisms that
have been levelled at systems like the proposed ABM
system: the only way of testing it is in a "live" situation.
The same may possibly be true of a political "game", but
there are no lives at stake; furthermore, what better way is
there for Nelson Rockefeller to spend his money - nothing
else has worked, so why not try a computer?
It is important to realize that the computer would not
be simply predicting the outcome of the election based on
available statistics. Instead, it would be presented with
"scenarios", and then it would be asked to predict the
outcome of the election. Thus, the computer might be told
that the following conditions exist as of November, 1972:
1. Unemployment has fallen to 4.3%.
2. Inflation, or the rise in prices, has levelled off at
5% per year.
3. Troop levels in Vietnam are down to 100,000, but
there is no progress at the Paris peace talks, and
the Vietcong are creating havoc in Cambodia, Laos
and South Vietnam.
4. There have been relatively few riots or campus
disturbances during the summer of 1972.
5. Nixon takes a hard stand on the law-and-order
issue, a conciliatory stand on issue X, a noncommittal stand on issue Y (e.g., "I have a plan,
but it would be inappropriate for me to reveal it at
this time"), etc.
Having been presented with this scenario, the computer
would then attempt to predict the outcome of the election,
and more important, would show a breakdown of the vote.
The same "game" could then be played with a different
scenario, e.g., assuming that unemployment is at 6%,
inflation has fallen off to 2%, etc.
A simulation of this kind depends on one critical
element: an accurate model of the voter. To construct a
model, a political analyst would have to describe the
"likes" and "dislikes" of voters in key precincts of each
state. He would have to tell the computer, for example,
that voters in Manhattan's Upper East Side are more
concerned with inflation and law-and-order than they are
with unemployment; more important, he would have to tell
the computer how much more concerned the voters were
with one issue over another.
Much of this information could be gathered in the type
of polls that were discussed above; of course, this kind of
26
simulation would be an important argument for the use of
computerized polls and opinion sampling. As the campaign
progressed, new polls could be used to update the model;
new data about the state of the economy, the level of the
war and various other news events could also be inserted
int; the model. Even more important, the results of
primaries could be used to verify the model; If the model
did not accurately predict the outcome of the primary, it
could be "tuned" so that it would eventually become
reasonably accurate.
A computerized simulation of a political campaign has
three major uses: it can identify the issues of greatest
interest to the electorate; it can demonstrate the issues and
scenarios most damaging to the opponentes); and it can
demonstrate the issues and scenarios most helpful to the
candidate. There is, of course, a potential moral problem,
since the computer might indicate that an issue in which
the candidate believes very strongly is very unpopular with
the voters; it should be remembered, though, that the same
problem existed long before the introduction of computers,
and political candidates will continue to be faced with the
same difficult decisions when faced with a controversial or
unpopular stand on an issue. There is certainly nothing
immoral, however, about using a computer to more accurately determine the opponent's strengths or weaknesses; it
would be very helpful, for example, to know whether
Nixon is more vulnerable in the area of law-and-order, the
economy, Vietnam, or lack of moral leadership. Similarly,
the computer can indicate the issues and scenarios for
which the candidate himself should strive, in order to
maximize his chances of election.
Finally, we should point out that the same techniques
could be used to simulate the national conventions. In this
case, of course, the voters consist of the convention
delegates. The simulation program would obviously have to
recognize that many of the votes are committed in one way
or another long before the delegate arrives at the convention; nevertheless, the computer could still be used to
examine and analyze various scenarios, and might be useful
in the determination of various pre-convention strategies.
I nformation Retrieval and Political "I ntelligence"
Many of the ideas that have been discussed above are
commonplace in well-funded and well-organized political
campaigns (of which there are very few!). During the next
few y~ars, though, we should expect to see a number of
new applications of computers, applications which fall into
the broad category of information retrieval and political
"intelligence". Once again, it should be pointed out that
many of these new applications will be expensive - perhaps
too expensive for the campaign of a single candidate.
However, if a national political organization, such as the
Democratic National Committee, were to maintain such a
computer system, the cost might be bearable when spread
among many Senatorial and Congressional candidates, and
when amortized over several years of campaigning.
Some of the more interesting things that could be done
with an information retrieval network include the following.
I dentification Dossiers
A computer system could be used to keep track of all
people who are "interesting" from a political point of view.
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for August, 1971
Thus, when asked, "Who is X?" (e.g., in 1967, Lyndon
Johnson might have asked, "Who on earth is Allard Lowenstein?"), the computer would indicate his personal associations, his personal associations and background, and the
organizations to which he belonged.
Input to the computer could be both extensive and
intensive in nature. For example, it might be desirable to
provide the computer with lists of all precinc t captains,
county chairmen, convention delegates and other minor
functionaries. Such lists would be extensive in scope, but
would not contain very much information about each
individual. On the other hand, it might be desirable to keep
very intensive information about the Murray Chotiner types
on a continual basis, on the assumption that these key
operatives will remain important from one election to the
next; their loyalties may change, as has been the case with
Henry Kissinger, but they will remain a strong force within
the political milieu.
Location of Key Operatives
Another use of a "dossier" system would be to find out
where a politically important figure is at the moment. We
might, for example, ask the computer to periodically print
a report on the 100 most important political figures,
indicating where they are and what they are doing. In
addition to keeping abreast of the movement of these
people, the computer would be able to indicate those who
had suddenly disappeared and gone "underground" (a
phenomenon which has already taken place in the 1972
campaign!).
Identification of Networks
In addition to keeping information abou t individuals,
the computer could maintain information about personal
networks. For example, such a computer system might have
been used to gather information about the Cliff White
network, the Allard Lowenstein "Dump Johnson" movement, the Campaign Consultants, Inc. group, etc.
Such an information retrieval system would be most
useful over a period of time. Since, for example, Murray
Chotiner has just recently begun to form a structure for
Nixon's 1972 campaign, information about his network
could begin to be gathered now. By the summer of 1972,
the nature, extent and scope of the network will obviously
have solidified, and should be refelcted in the computer's
reports.
Analysis of Formal and I nformal Power Structures
The computer might also be used to maintain information about the history, factions and cliques within national
party organs and state party organs. This might include a
listing of all the party professionals, local leaders, delegates,
major contributors, and so forth - and an indication of
their loyalties, preferences, rivalries, etc.
Again, this type of information would be most useful
when gathered over a period of time. It would be most
valuable during the year or two preceding a national
convention, during which time most of the maneuvering
and manipulating for delegates is taking place. However, it
could also be very useful during the campaign, for it would
indicate how the state and national party organizations
could be used most effectively ... or thwarted most
effectively, as the case might be.
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for August, 1971
Recruiting and Talent Search
A number of personnel agencies have already discovered
that a computer can be used to locate people with specific
talents and backgrounds. In the case of a political campaign, it might be desirable to keep lists of recruits,
volunteers and workers for the lower echelons of party
work, as well as lists of people in advertising, communications, business, entertainment, etc. This latter group might
prove useful for endorsements of the candidate, as well as
for their own talents and skills.
Conclusions
In almost all of the areas described above, the most
difficult part is that of describing and defining the probiem.
For example, the programming of a computerized simulation of an election is a relatively straightforward one; it is
the determination of the model that is difficult. Nevertheless, there are some potentially troublesome aspects of
computers and computer programming that should be
borne in mind if these or any other politically-oriented
computer projects are implemented.
First, the programs should be written in a high-level
language, such as FORTRAN, COBOL, or PL/I. While
assembly language programs are likely to be more efficient
(and thereby cheaper, in terms of machine time), they are
more difficult to write, more difficult to debug, and much
more difficult to modify. Also, if any of the programs are
to be written by local party volunteers, there is much more
likely to be an abundance of available COBOL programmers
than of assembly language programmers.
Second, the computer programs should be developed for
a reasonably "popular" machine, so that they can be moved
easily from one installation to another. Because of IBM's
overwhelming dominance in the field, an IBM System/360
or System/370 would probably be the best choice, in terms
of mo bili ty and flexibility. If the candidate or the party is
sure of staying with one computer installation, then Honeywell, Burroughs, GE, Univac and CDC should also be
considered. For many of the simpler applications described
above, a relatively inexpensive minicomputer, such as the
PDP-8, PDP-II, Honeywell-516 or Varian 620-i should be
considered; these machines can be purchased for approximately $10,000, though the price would increase somewhat
if high-speed printers and other peripheral devices are
added. The purchase of off-shift computer time and thirdparty leasing should also be examined.
Finally, the feasibility of a time-sharing system should
be studied very carefully. That is, it may be desirable to
obtain a computer with remote terminals in various strategic locations. Terminals could be maintained in the
campaign headquarters, in important state headquarters, on
the candidate's campaign plane, and so forth. A timesharing approach, as opposed to the traditional batch
approach, would facilitate the immediate entry of information relating to polls, opinion trends, and political "intelligence"; it would also facilitate the immediate retrieval of
information at the terminal. If this approach is followed,
though, the cost (including the high telecommunications
cost) and the problem of security should be examined.
There is no doubt that a time-sharing system is much more
expensive than a simple batch system; security is a problem
because anyone with a terminal can attempt to gain access
to the system from a remote location.
0
27
THE JAPANESE C'OMPUTER MARKETCHA,RACTE,RISTICS ADVERSELY AFFECTING
U.S. T:RADE INTE'RESTS
Part One
"In 1934 Japan announced an intention of computerizing herself with her own
computers.
Since then, Japan has developed, marketed, and installed enough
electronic computers to rank third behind the United States and West Germany
in total installations. .. Such preeminence has not come by accident."
Stephen T. McClellan
108 Sagamore Rd.
Tuckahoe, NY. 10707
"Japanese Maker Selling Computers to U.S. Firm."}
This bell wether newspaper headline is the culmination of
almost a decade of concerted efforts by the Japanese to
develop a competitive computer industry. It is only a
milepost however. Research, technology, and production
have advanced to the point where Japanese computers are
internationally competitive. Now the marketing effort is
underway.
How far have the Japanese advanced? Since 1964, when
Japan announced an intention of computerizing herself
with her own computers, Japan has developed, marketed,
and installed enough electronic computers to rank third
behind the United States and West Germany in total
installations. Of the 5,601 computers in Japan September
30, 52% (by value) were produced by Japanese manufacturers.2 This is in sharp contrast to the European experience where, except for one country, the domestic computer
markets are dominated by U.S. computer manufacturers.
Such preeminence has not come by accident. The
Japanese government directs and controls the domestic
industry through organizations such as the Ministry of
International Trade and Industry (MITI) and the federal
Japan Electronic Computer Company (JECC). Computer
industry promotion and control takes many forms. Among
them are standardization, loans, technological stimulus,
import restrictions, tariff barriers, license controls, "buy
Japanese policies," and other computer industry stimuli.
This study considers only the financial characteristics of
the Japanese computer market which serve to make the
industry competitive to that of the U.S. Other market
aspects are no less significant than the financial ones and
often are directly related. They are not emphasized however because the objective of this article is to analyze only
the competitive financial factors.
Government encouragement and protection, a large part
of which are financial, account for most of the rapid
growth of Japan's compu ter industry over the past decade.
Elsewhere during this time U.S. computer firms were
eclipsing fledgling national computer industries, especially
in Europe. As early as 1957, Japan's Electronics Industry
Promotion Act singled out development of an electronic
compu ter industry as a national goal. Financial incentives
28
In his capacity as a computer industry analyst with the
U.S. Department of Commerce, Mr. Stephen T. McClellan has
authored several government publications on the international and domestic computer markets. He has an M.B.A.
degree in finance from George Washington University; his
thesis was entitled "The Financial Aspects of Computer
Utilization."
have included tariff and quota protection, tax benefits,
strict control over foreign investment, and preference in the
large public computer market for Japanese-made systems. A
major factor in this build-up is the Japan Development
Bank's loans of over $145 million to the Japan Electronic
Computer Corporation (JECC), a rental corporation that
finances some 90% of all domestic-built compu ter rentals. 3
Meanwhile, barriers and limitations have effectively reduced foreign competition in Japan. U.S. subsidiaries cannot lease through JECC. Japanese federal and educational
institutions cannot buy foreign EDP equipment. All Japanese imports of computer equipment and software are
tightly controlled and rigidly restricted by MITI. U.S.
officials for the past year have made repeated attempts to
get Japan to reduce import restrictions on U.S. computers,
thus far withou t success. Despite these restrictions, American firms did export $91 million of computers to Japan in
1969.
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for August, 1971
Government Production and Control:
Ministry of I nternational Trade and Industry
The Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI)
is the foremost governmental body promoting and controlling the domestic computer industry. It is mainly a
policy making unit whose objectives in its "administrative
guidance" of the computer industry are as follows: 4
1. Rationalize computer production through business
tie-ups and joint operations of cooperating manufacturers.
2. Provide JECC with adequate financial backing,
including low-cost loans from the Japan Development Bank, Ltd.
3. Raise the quality of computer software and components to the level of international standards by
the end of Japan fiscal year 1970 (March 31,
1971).
4. Provide tax benefits to domestic manufacturers
(e.g., a 10% tax rebate to manufacturers who
repurchase used computers from JECC.
The previously mentioned 1957 Electronics Industry
Promotion Act gives MITI the significant role of insuring
adequate financing of manufacturers. This is done mainly
by direct subsidization. Some $28 million has been
budgeted to assist the domestic industry in developing a
large-scale, high-performance computer by 1971. 5 Additional money for research and development is channeled
through the Japan Electronic Industries Development Association (JEIDA). In 1968 MITI spent $l.1 million on an
Electro-Technical Laboratory and gave $4.6 million to
seven domestic computer manufacturers to develop memory units. In 1969 MITI considered alloting the manufacture
of seven peripheral equipment devices to specified JECC
members to promote product specialization. 4
Financial aid is also directed to the computer user. MITI
annually directs the Japan Development Bank to loan JECC
five-year term loans at the subsidized interest rate of 7.5%
per annum. The money is then used to finance computer
leases to the end-user. Further assistance to individual
computer user enterprises by MITI is through 1) establishing mortgage loans for computers, 2) instituting Japan
Development Bank loans for the purchase of computers.6
MITI fulfills a parallel function of protecting the domestic industry through restrictive import licensing. Computers
cannot be imported into Japan unless the import is approved by MITI. The rather arbitrary licensing system
which identifies end-users and requires user justification
results in a high degree of protection for the domestic
computer industry. To further promote and control the
domestic industry, MITI established in 1961 a private rental
company under close Governmental support and supervision; JECC.
JECC purchases computers manufactured by its stockholders and leases or sells them to end-users. The computers
must be developed by the manufacturer's own techniques
and marketed under his own brand-name containing over
90% Japanese parts. The computer company pays manufacturers for software as well as for hardware in its purchase
prices although maintenance and programming services are
perfmmed by manufacturers. Used equipment is resold to
original manufacturers. 7
Free to lease or sell to any potential buyer, assisted by
MIT I in its efforts to persuade customers to use domestic
equipment, and assured of low-cost, long-term domestic
financing, JECC enjoys significant advantages over its
foreign competitors. In selling to the Government sector
(government agencies, universities, research labs, hospitals,
and other institutions) JECC has almost a captive market.
This Government sector grew faster than the private sector
in 1968.
U. S. competitors in this market, including IBM,
UNIVAC, NCR, Burroughs, Control Data, and others, are at
a distinct disadvantage in that they cannot finance computer sales or leases through JECC. The domestic parts
requirements effectively eliminate their computers. U.S.
peripheral equipment is also precluded from being sold with
a Japanese computer system for the same reason. Thus, all
U.S. computer equipment, whether imported into or manufactured in Japan, must be financed by the vendor which
usually cannot or chooses not to meet the liberal terms
offered by JECC.
JECC rents or leases computers and peripheral equipment in the following manner: 7
1. Any firm wishing to rent a computer consults with
any of the six manufacturers to determine which
model is most suitable. The firm then signs a
preliminary contract with the appropriate manufacturer specifying the rental cost, delivery date,
and the firm's intention to conclude a final rental
contract with JECC.
2. JECC concludes a rental agreement with the firm,
according to the foregoing agreement.
3. JECC purchases the computer from the manufacturer, usually at a price equal to 45 times the
monthly rental fee.
4. The lessee returns the computer when the lease
term is over.
Finance funds of JECC consist of paid-in capital by the
stockholders, revolving lease or rental funds, loans from the
Japan Development Bank as well as city, local, trust and
mutual banks, and loans from insurance companies and
foreign banks (see Table 1). The first foreign loan obtained
by JECC was for $3 million from the First National City
Table 1
Japan Electronic Computer Company
The Japan Electronic Computer Company (JECC) was
formed in 1961 as a result of pressure from MITI. Originally the leasing firm was capitalized for $3 million by
seven stockholders, all domestic computer manufacturers.
Its purpose is to utilize loans from the Japan Development
Bank to finance the leasing, outright sales, and installment
sales of computers produced by domestic (over 51% Japanese controlled) firms.
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for August, 1971
Stockholders in JECC as of 1968 8
Stockholders
Percent Owned
Fujitsu Limited
Hitachi, Limited
Mitsubishi Electric Corporation
Nippon Electric Co., Limited
Oki Electric Industry Co., Limited
Tokyo Shibaura Electric Co., Limited
17.8
19.6
12.8
20.8
14.0
15.0
29
Table 2
-Purchases of Computers and Loans from the
Japan Development Bank (JDB 7
Japan Fiscal Year
{AQr. I-Mar. 31}
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
Total value of
computers purchased by JECC
millions}
Loans to JECC
from JDB
($ millions~
3.0
9.0
16.3
32.5
57.7
74.6
102.2
125-138 Est.
1.1
2.2
4.2
6.9
15.3
19.4
22.2
22.2 Est.
{~
Bank, New York in 1967 (see Table 2).
Under JECC's leasing system, 1/45 of the direct sales
price of the computer is charged as the monthly rental fee
in accordance with a contract which runs for a minimum of
15 months. If at the end of this term the user does not
renew the contract the manufacturer is under obligation to
buy the computer back, paying JECCan amount equivalent
to the value remaining on the books. A 10% tax rebate is
awarded to a manufacturer who repurchases a cOI!1puter
from JEce. Now that third generation computers are in full
use, however, many second generation computers are being
replaced and traded-in. Herein stems one of JECC's most
difficult financial problems.
Increased funds are now necessary to finance those
trade-ins. In 1968 a reserve fund was established to cover
any losses incurred through repurchase of used computers.
The funds were obtained by holding 10% of the manufacturer's profit on computers sold to JECC for lease, and
when a repurchase loss was incurred it was compensated for
from this reserve. 9 However, recently JEee, due to the
severe shortage of funds, stopped repurchasing used computers altogether and thus the manufacturer now must do
the repurchasing directly.
JECC's large increase in demand for funds is due also to
the increased volume of business it conducts. Being pressed
to procure new funds for present and long range increases
in computer leasing, the organization has agreed with the
French Government to supply know-how and technology
for large-scale computer production in exchange for French
loans to buoy up the sagging JECC finances. 10 Up to this
time MITI allowed JECC to borrow funds abroad only once
even though JECC desired to do some borrowing in the
Eurodollar market.
A further step to alleviate JECC's shortage of funds is a
legislative act to come up before the National Diet in the
next session. This bill calls for an easier credit system for
computer users and should stimulate increased domestic
usage of Japanese computers.ll Japanese corporations are
very heavily debt financed. Sometimes up to 80-90% of
capital is derived through debt financing. Domestic banks
aid this practice by granting loans on a liberal basis, a spirit
of comradeship between executives being a major factor.
Such balance sheets suffer when interest rates rise. Loans
become more expensive and perhaps prohibitive for manufacturers and users. The Government and the Japan Development Bank aid the manufacturers; now a new act will
serve to aid users.
NUMBLES
NUMBER PUZZLES FOR NIMBLE MINDS
-AND COMPUTERS
Neil Macdonald
Assistant Editor
Computers and Automation
A "numble" is an arithmetical problem in which: digits
have been replaced by capital letters; and there are two
messages, one which can be read right away and a second
one in the digit cipher. The problem is to solve for the
digits.
Each capital letter in the arithmetical problem stands for
just one digit 0 to 9. A digit may be represented by more
than one letter. The second message, which is expressed in
numerical digits, is to be translated (using the same key)
into letters so that it may be read; but the spelling uses
puns or is otherwise irregular, to discourage cryptanalytic
methods of deciphering.
We invite our readers to send us solutions, together with
human programs or computer programs, which will produce
the solutions. This month's Numble was contributed by:
Stuart Freudberg
Newton High School
Newton. Mass.
NUMBLE 718
EYE S
+ ARE THE
BFHM
VLDT
AF HL AA
+ A T V A S MY B L E M
944908
A MBA S SAD 0 R S
Solution to Numble 717
In Numble 717 in the June issue, the digits 0 through 9
are represented by letters as follows:
L=O
S= 1
H=2
A,I = 3
0=4
W=5
B,D,R= 6
E=7
T=8
N=9
The message is: Those who will not see are also blind.
Our thanks to the following individuals for submitting
their solutions - to Numble 716: Marijoe Bestgen, Shawnee
Mission, Kans.; Mary E. Brindamour, West Lynn, Mass.; A.
Sanford Brown, Dallas, Texas; Gordon and Debra Bruno,
Cliffside Park, N.J.; Warren H. Buell, Los Angeles, Calif.;
Twite S. Emerick, Harrisburg, Pa.; T. P. Finn, Indianapolis,
Ind.; D. F. Martin, Los Angeles, Calif.; Abraham Schwartz,
Jamaica, N.Y.; Harold L. Smith, Thomson, Ga.; C. P. T.
Wong, West Vancouver, Canada; and David P. Zerbe,
Reading, Pa. - to Numble 715: Harold L. Smith, Thomson,
Ga.
(Part 2 and Footnotes: in the next issue)
30
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for August, 1971
A SYSTEMS APPROACH TO JOB ,HUNTING
"The model proposed here provides those who are now seeking or will
seek a new position, with a potential basis for their own planning. "
Thomas V. Sobczak
Waldes Kohinoor, Inc.
47-16 Austel Pl.
Long Island City, N. Y. 11101
What determines a good job? Challenge, salary, security,
satisfaction, nearness to home or anyone of a hundred
other factors! How does an individual know a job is suited
to him and he to it? The "goodness" of a job is up to the
individual doing it. If he likes his work and is reasonably
treated, any job can be good. But, if an individual wants
"the job" - the one job he dreams of - he will seek it
scientifically, logically, and with a dedicated self interest in
obtaining and being part of it.
Locating and securing the perfect job involves detailed
self-evaluation and planning. Unfortunately, the majority of
Thomas V. Sobczak is Manager, Systems and Electronic
Data Processing, Waldes Kohinoor, Inc., Long Island City,
New York, N.Y. 11101. He graduated from St. John's University with a B.A. and completed M.B.A. studies at Hofstra
University. He teaches in the Systems and Programming Institute at Hofstra University. He is a member of the National
Defense Executive Reserve of the U.S. Department of
Commerce.
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for August, 1971
professional job-hunters are like their less educated counterparts in the labor community. They make the jump out-ofthe-frying-pan into a self-imposed fire with little, if any,
reflection on the magnitude of the step.
Few, if any, can honestly say they have individually
been able to establish a policy by which to work and a goal
to work for. Fewer still are working by the policy, toward
the goal they have established. All seek the good life or
some impossible dream without any realistic intention of
working toward it. Our inertia encourages us to let intermediate opportunities - steps toward our goal - pass us
by. Trapped by our sloth we become finger pointers, sour
grapes; or, worse, we become enamoured with the fancy
that "my day will come", malcontent in the world we made
for ourselves.
The model proposed here provides those who are now
seeking or will seek a new position, with a potential basis
for their own planning. At first glance, the operations and
decisions seem insultingly simple. In fact, they are timeconsuming, soul-searching periods of self evaluation and
analyses. Many subroutines have been omitted: they are
personal and private to each of us. Whether we admit to
them or not, we know them. Whether we consider them or
not, they will rise up to haunt us, a spectre of the reality we
try to hide.
If you follow the steps honestly, with sincerity of
purpose, the results will be rewarding. You will have
narrowed your field to (1) those jobs where you have the
greatest chance to succeed, and to (2) those jobs which
hold the greatest personal satisfaction for your "self." Can
there be a better combination? You and your potential
employer will complement each other. At your interview
you will know that you fit. You will not have to tell half
truths or inflate past experiences. You should not have to
accept a job that sounds only partially challenging. Materially, you will not be wasting your time taking interviews
only to discover you are not interested in the type of work
offered.
31
Prologue
I. To the Editor from Thomas V. Sobczak
Your comments on page 6 of the May 1971 issue ["How
an unemployed computer professional might start his own
business, and earn a reasonable income as his own employer" 1 interested and intrigued me. I should like to offer
an article for the data processing professional who does not
want to work for himself - there are some!
This article was offered and accepted twice in 1967. It has
never been published. In the first case, Magazine E after it
had accepted the article, returned it because it slighted their
employment agency advertisers by suggesting a professional
could locate a position on his own rather than as a piece of
merchandise on the selling block.
The second acceptance was by Magazine T. They rewrote
the article from the viewpoint of employment counselor, and
added names of their advertisers as choices to do the required
planning and resume generations. I did not want my name
associated with the article; so it was not published. They later
did a piece on employment agencies.
If you think those professionals who do not want to work
·for themselves whatever the reason would benefit from the
article, use it. If you don't think it worthwhile, return it
please.
II. To TVS from the Editor
Thank you for your interesting letter and the copy of
your article "A Systems Approach to Job Hunting". I like it,
and I think it may well fit into "Computers and Automation" - and of course we shall publish it (if we accept it)
without changing the tone or the sense of what is being said.
What an interesting light you throw on the two magazines
that you mention!
One question: do you want to change anything in it in
view of the fact that now in 1971 there is an employer's
market and not an employee's market? It is not easy to get
jobs.
III. To the Editor from TVS
In response to your question concerning a change in the
article I submitted, based on the fact that in 1971 there is an
employer's market not an employee's market and it is not
easy to get jobs: No. I do not feel a change is necessary for
several reasons. First, proper planning in seeking a position as
outlined in the article will nullify the effect of the employer's
market.
Contrary to popular opinion, there are many jobs available. The jobs that are available to people, are available to
those people who are qualified. What we have been seeing
The Model
Event
A-I
32
Title
lately, because of the rapid reorganization in various sectors
of the economy is people coming out of one job and not
determining what they were suited to do. In place of
planning you have mob response.
You have many unqualified people applying for the same
job and giving the impression that the employer has the
upper hand. When in actual reality the people applying, for
the most part, are not qualified for the position they apply
for. As an example, my organization recently wanted to hire
a programmer. We went to several agencies and put ads in the
newspaper. The resultant influx of people was horrifying.
Nine out of ten were not qualified for the job that we
offered. They were applying because they didn't have jobs.
The personnel department thought we had a tremendous
response but to the Data Pwcessing Manager the response
was quite poor because in actuality my choice was between
two and three people not thirty as the personnel department
would have supposed.
As to the ease of obtaining a position, this depends quite
seriously on the diligence and dedication that the individual
who is seeking the position, puts into his search. As an
example, just in the New York City area, the Federal, State
and City Government; the Port of New York Authority; the
New York Transportation System; the Metropolitan Transit
Authority; the Federal Aviation Agen.cy and several others in
the Civil Service field -- are hiring. There are books which
indicate which corporations exist in the City by borough and
what they do. An individual who took the time to scan this
type of information should be able to pick out one or two
companies.
Using myself as an example, in 1969 the company that I
worked for in East Rockaway, Long Island, had determined
that they were moving to Attleboro, Mass. Having family ties
and responsibilities in the area, I elected not to move. After
carefully thinking what I was willing to do in the way of
employment and what salary I wanted in order to do it, I
went to the Long Island Association and purchased for
seventeen dollars, a book that listed all the companies on
Long I sland. Going through the book I picked out the
companies where I thought I could be useful. Of 34 letters
sent out, 22 replied, asking me to come in for an interview. I
received seven job offers from the twenty-two replies.
The job I presently hold did not occur this way. It
occurred through personal contact. A peer operating a data
center told me of a company that was thinking of a new
installation. I joined the company and brought about the
installation. I am now developing the data processing capabilities of the company.
In other words, the system described in the article works.
It is totally divorced from how many jobs there are. There
are always jobs for people who go about looking for jobs in
the right way. This is the only point that I'm trying to get
across.
Determine
employment goal
A-3
Can the goal be
reasonably attained?
Comments
Decision to leave
Perhaps the best possible advice is to stop at this point
and reflect. A decision to leave should be based on a
concrete foundation (examples: no advancement or
raise over a long period; supervisory management is
top heavy and you cannot advance ).¥any people
choose to move because the boss is moody and the
mutual collision of moods hurts their pride, or Jack
moved and got more money, or anyone of many
other trivial things.
After you decide to leave,
don't fall into the trap of
moving to the situation with
only the names being new. Examine your past experiences; you should be able to determine the type of
task which most interested you. As a result of your
self-examination, choose a goal; it provides a target to
shoot for.
A-2
Be careful not to become
enamoured with 'a one-shot
success (for example, publishing one paper successfully doesn't make you a
writer). Review your goal against reality. Talk it out
with your wife or girl friend, parent, or some friend
or associate who can be more objective than you in
relation to the goal you have chosen.
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for August, 1971
r9 o
o
o
;:
r
"'\J
C
-I
m
;;0
UI
III
:s
a..
l>
c
(1
~(5
Z
Q
l>
c
to
~
~
-0
~
B1
Review
~sourcesof
U
./IEmployment
B2
Choose
Potential
Sources
e
If'
0;)
Stop
D3
Arrange
Interview
~
No
~
~
04
Interview
Are your
Objectives
Understated
(.)
(.)
A Systems Approach to Job Hunting
A-4
A-5
A-6
List immediate
job objectives
This is the first plateau in
your quest. You must now
decide how to go from where
you are now to the realization of your goals. Take the
trouble to list all your thoughts, then do as Juran
suggests in "Managerial Breakthrough", pick out the
select few objectives from the trivial many.
B-1
Review sources of
employment
B-2
Choose potential
sources
After you've listed a group of
po ten tial sources, research
them. If you know about potential workplaces in advance, you can better determine where you want to work in them.
B-3
Are sources best suited Do not be impressed by a
to your objectives?
company's facade or the
stability of its work levels or
any of the unimportant things that can attract you.
Match the company's ability to help you attain your
objectives to the objectives you have listed. Choose
only those companies, as prime sources, which further the attainment of your objectives.
B-4
Draft covering letter
This is the secon d pIa tea u.
Layout your experience in a
tabular form. Prune the data to a reasonable size. I
recommend the Encyclopedia Brittanica Research
Service publication on Resumes as an excellent guide.
Each company is different.
The selling points which will
verbally portray your image are different. So do not
use a form type covering letter. Address your letter to
someone. Gear it to sell the benefits you have to
offer. Companies receive tens to hundreds of applications weekly. Think of the welcome change from "I
did xxx" to "you can benefit from my employment by
xxx". The draft of the covering letter should be a
microcosm of your resume, always positive, always
selling, bu t never vain, pre ten tious, or pushy.
B-5
Does the covering
letter match
your resume
Does your resume sell A resume should be a tool
your objective?
helping you to attain part of
and
the distance to your goal. If it
B-6
Submit your covering This is your third plateau.
letters and resumes
Now you can relax for a
while. Most companies take
two to four weeks to reply. This gives them time to
pass your resume to interested parties.
Does experience
promote your
objectives?
Examine your list of objectives against your experience.
Make sure you can honestly
fulfill the responsibilities you
are determined to accept. It is far better to take an
educational detour to gain skills than to be branded a
fraud and "incompetent." If your experience can't
support your objectives, go back to your list of
immediate job objectives and review them. Reflect on
how much you cheat yourself if you don't really
determine what your objectives should be.
Are your immediate
objectives and your
goal compatible?
Be careful that you are not
making your objectives too
wide. Poorly defined objectives tend to blur the target
goal. Are you sure the objectives are suited to the
goal? Maybe one or the other should be modified.
To add some time data, we are now at about decision
plus five days.
A-7
A-8
A-9
Draft resume
Does honest
modification sell
your objectives?
doesn't serve this purpose, it
has no utility. Discard it and
try again. If you still can't
succee d review your objectives.
Don't get carried away by the
thought of more money. Depending on the industry,
5-10% is average. In some fields the need allows for
higher increases; yet I tend to feel disturbed about
the offer of a higher salary than I think I'm worth.
Eventually the need will cease; will my job security
and potential advancement cease with it? There are
several guides to executive compensation which one
can use to develop a feel for what he is worth to a
given industry. Use them.
34
Make sure your letter doesn't
contradict your resume. Do
not oversell in the letter what
you cannot prove in the
resume.
We are now at about decision plus 15 days.
B-7
Receive and review
responses
Read each response carefully
but don't be scrupulous.
B-8
Are responses
favorable?
If responses are favorable, go
to line "D." If responses are
unfavorable, go to line "C."
C-l
Is your asking salary
compatible with
industry?
We are now at about decision plus nine days.
A-lO Determine a
reasonable salary
This could be accomplished
in parallel to the "A" series
but in a more general way. By
waiting until you have your "self' aligned, you stand
a much better chance of making sharper choices
concerning your sources of employment.
Back at A-lO I suggested you
not get carried away with the
thought of more money. The
negative responses are a test.
Typically if you have the experience to meet a need a
potential employer has, his main objection will be
your asking price.
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for August, 1971
C-2
Is your present salary
equal to or greater
than industry level?
If you are compatible with
industry salary-wise, go back
and review your resume. Maybe you undersold yourself. If
you are above the industry level for your skills, move
on to C-3.
If you are determined to
either maintain your present
salary or to get an increase,
then stop. It is useless to try to get a better paying
job while bucking industry trends. If you will take a
salary cut, return to A-IO.
you did not receive an offer,
go to line "E."
D-S
Did you accept?
If you accepted an offer,
"Congratulations"; if not,
why not? Review your objectives and resume; see 'if
you can zero in much closer on what you want.
C-3
Are you willing to
take a salary cut?
E-I
If you asked for more than
they were willing to pay, return to A-I 0 and determine if
you were right. If in good conscience you think you
are right, stick to it. You wouldn't have been happy
with less money.
D-I
Are your objectives
reasonable to
potential employers?
E-2
Was the experience
you offered
reasonable?
E-3
Are you willing to
accept less?
D-2
D-3
You may be called in to an
interview for a position only
to find that the company has
something other than what
you requested in mind. If the response inviting you to
the interview doesn't say specifically what position
you will be interviewed for, define the position when
you call to make the appointment. If the position is
outside your objectives, you must decide how important your objectives and goal really are.
Are you prepared
to interview?
At this point the many unlisted subroutines come into
place. Don't waste your time
and the potential employer's time if you have really
decided but won't admit that you:
1. Can't relocate.
2. Do not like travel from suburbs to the city.
3. Wife doesn't like you out late but the job
requires it.
4. etc.
If you can't interview honestly, do not interview at
all. In fact, determine if you should be interviewing
and looking at all.
You can't really judge this
fact but you will know if you
were really far off base. If
you could feel uncomfortable, go back to your objectives and state them in
perspective to reality and start again. You have
wasted your time learning a lesson about over-selling.
If you are not willing to accept less and don't have the
qualifications, stop wasting
your time. If you are willing to accept a lesser job or
salary, return to the "A" line at the appropriate spot
and start over.
The cycle described herein may have to be repeated four
to six times before you lock on to your target. It requires a
great deal of fortitude an~ courage to stick to your guns
even if it means losing some of the status you have grown
accustomed to attributing to yourself. In all, this process
should take six to eight weeks. If you succeed in less time,
you can consider yourself more honest than most. If it
takes more than eight weeks of concentrated effort, you
have a problem somewhere - one you are not admitting to.
Arrange the interview
Make the time convenient to
both parties. Try not to rush
the interview so you have time to prepare. Determine
what specifics the interviewer wants to see.
D-4
Interview
D-S
Did your resume sell
your objectives?
Be normal. Act as you always
act. Remember if you start
playing a role at the interview, you will be force d to
live it during your employment. Be honest. Tell what
you did and why. Bring samples of your work. Don't
be afraid to say "I don't know." Don't try to
second-guess so as to please. Remember, half truths
or exaggerations can and will hurt later on.
After the first interview, you
have objective data for insight
into your campaign. If the
interviewer had objectives for you other than those
you suggested, review your resume; possibly it does
not say what you wanted it to.
D-6 Are your objectives
still as listed
in A 4?
Based on your interview you
can determine if your objectives are reasonable to someone on the other side of the
fence. You may wish to modify them.
D-7
Was the requested
salary acceptable?
Did you obtain an
offer?
If you received an offer and
accepted, go on to D-S. If
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for August, 1971
Summary
We spend more than thirty percent of our day on the
job. It can be challenging or dull, interesting or boring; that
is entirely up to the individual. Remember:
1. Do not go job hunting until you know your target.
2. Know your goals, establish your objectives, and
most of all, be confident of your decisions.
3. Be honest with yourself. Brass and bravado are
fine, but they have no place in deciding an important part of your future.
4. If you are not up to the level you feel you should
be or which employers expect, work at it, Liars
and cheats eventually are trapped by the webs
they weave.
5. Decide what you want to do and do not accept
less, but be absolutely sure your talents are not
overstated.
6. Let the work, not the salary, guide your choice.
No amount of money is worth the frustration that
mediocre jobs can cause.
7. Use logic, not emotion. Pomp and circumstance
often hide a multitude of sins.
In summary, remember, only you can be hurt by a poor
choice. So, count to ten before you speak; take a day to
decide. Be sure! Be careful! Be sincere! In the end you,
most assuredly, will be satisfied.
0
35
SKEPTICISM OF OFFICIAL GOVERNMENT EXPLANATIONS
2. From the Editor
From: James D. White
35 Castle Rock Drive
Mill Valley, Calif. 94941
It seems to me that there are two common human
attitudes towards new or upsetting or revolutionary information.
In forwarding the enclosed order for back issues of "Computers and Automation," I am unable to
resist indicating in some way my very great appreciation for the series of articles your magazine
has been publishing on the assassinations. In my
opinion it is tragic that less specialized publications, most of which have a clear duty in this
area, exhibit little of your interest in getting
at the truth.
The January issue, with its reprint of your 1959
article "Opposition to New Ideas," raises a question which has long bothered me and which I should
like to discuss briefly. This is the uncanny parallelism in the treatment both of Unidentified Flying Objects (UFOs), and the assassinations.
Let me explain briefly. During World War II, I
concluded tentatively that the so-called Foo Fighters probably were some sort of manifestation along
the line of what later was generally called UFOs.
This impression was strengthened during the exhibitions over the Baltic immediately after the war,
so that when the Arnold sightings in 1947 saturated the public with the UFO concept and the subsequent waves of sightings kept it in the public
consciousness, I was less skeptical than most simply because the UFO was not a new idea and I therefore was not as apprehensive about it as most people were. The more I studied the question, the
more apparent it became that this very serious matter was being met largely by official denials, lies,
obfuscations and, at times, outright fakery. And
by nothing else.
(
Then came the assassination of President John
F. Kennedy in Dallas, Texas, on November 22, 1963.
Again, a matter of the utmost importance. And what
was the response? Exactly the same. More apparent
lies, the introduction of masses of confusing and
often conflicting details, the barrage of ridicule
directed against those trying to get at the facts,
and the insistence -- backed up almost universally
by the media, that any departure from the official
story represents the imaginings of kooks or the
self-serving of charlatans. Almost immediately after the JFK assassination, I had the strong impression not only tha~ the methods were the same, the
tactics and strategy identical, but that many of the
same people were carrying them out. This has persi sted, and I rai se seriously the qtl.estion of whether this parallelism is more than coincidental, as
it must be to a great extent. I suggest it as
a possible area of inquiry and analysis.
I assume you also have noticed an incidental paralleli sm - the high incidence of UFO buffs who exhibit the same skepticism toward official explanations
of the assassinations.
In this. connection, I have taken the liberty of
copying and enclosing a couple of pages_ f~om the
Bulletin of the Aerial Phenomena Research Organization of Tucson, Arizona. You will note on the second page that they are planning a computer treatment
of their accumulation of data. It occurred -to me
that if you did not know about th{s it might have
some interest for you. APRO is the oldest and most
solid of the UFO inquiry groups.
I thank you again for your admirable enterprise,
and send every good wish.
36
The more common human attitude is to deny the
new information. This seems to be the more normal human behavior. After all, if the information
is upsetting, it might not be true -- and if it is
not true, one does not have to do anything about
it. To do nothing is always the easiest course,
especially for persons in subordinate positions
because any decision that they might make about
something new, will clearly have to be reviewed by
a superior. After all, "don't stick your neck
out."
The less common human attitude is to accept the
new information either (1) tentatively (like a
scientist), waiting to hear more or learn more,
or (2) completely and sometimes gullibly.
For example, Dr. Linus Pauling, Professor of
chemistry at Stanford University, twice a Nobel
prize winner, has recently put forward the proposition that taking large quantities of vitamin
C will greatly reduce the prevalence of the common
cold. A great many persons are trying out this
idea. I have tried it; so far it clearly increases
my health and well being. As for the American Medical Association, I have noticed no statement from
them abeut Dr. Pauling's proposition; I would expect them to say nothing and do nothing about the
idea -- and if possible dissuade anybody else from
doing anything about the idea -- because the idea
did not originate with a medical doctor who is a
member of the AMA.
If it is true that normal human behavior about
a new idea is to deny it, then it is not usually
necessary to assume a conspiracy to prevent the
spreading of that new idea. As a matter of fact
the scientific attitude (that a surprising new
idea should be carefully investigated and tested)
is rather a recent attitude for human beings, when
we look back on human history over the centuries.
We have been doing a lot of thinking about the
extension of the computer field, which is necessary as a result of the proposition that:
Computer professionals are, in reality, information engineers, and therefore they are
responsible for the truth of the information
and data going into the computer as well as
the truth of the deductions that come out.
"Computers and Automation" does not need to agitate much in the areas of information where society, business, government, industry, the universities, etc., arl agree about the kind of data that
should go into a computer system -- the noncontroversial information like payroll data, inventory
data, wind tunnel measurements, etc. The interests of all parties agree: they all want correct
data to go into the system.
But "Computers and Automation" does have to
agitate about the areas where there is controversy.
Here we have to help orient computer professionals
to the facts of life, society, and. the world, including those facts which establi s-hments are busily
suppressing, or trying to suppress. Censorship is
wrong. Suppression of information is wrong. Lying
is wrong. And C&A has a job to do -- find out the
correct information and publish it.
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for August, 1971
Jim Garrison, District Attorney, Orleans Parish
vs. The Federal Governm:ent
"Why did Jim Garrison involve himself in the Clay Sha w prosecution which has brought him nothing but grief, frustration, and heartache?"
Bernard Fensterwald, Attorney
Executive Director
National Committee to Investigate Assassinations
927 15th St., N. W.
Washington, D. C. 20005
In 1961, 1965, and again in 1969 the citizens of
Orleans Parish, Louisiana, elected as their District
Attorney a local lawyer whom, it seems fair to assume in view of the election returns, they considered capable, honest, and well qualified for the
office. In fact, he was the first District Attorney
in modern times in New Orleans to be elected to a
third term. In his capacity as chief prosecutor he
had the duty and obligation to assist in the indictment of those persons he suspected of having committed crimes in the jurisdiction and, in the case
of those indicted, to prosecute them to the full
extent of the law.
The man selected to serve three successive four
year terms for the Parish was Jim Garrison. During
his second term as District Attorney he was subjected to one of the most vicious character assassinations the Federal government in Washington has ever
effected on any local official to date. Garrison's
"folly" consisted primarily in his refusal to accept
the conclusions of a non-judicial federal body chosen, not by the citizens of the nation, but by one
man, ex-President Lyndon B. Johnson of the United
States. That body was the Warren Commission which
investigated the assassination of President John F.
Kennedy.
Artillery Spotter Plane Pilot
Before examining the background and nature of
this character assassination, it might be well to
relate some of the background and nature of the
victim.
Ealing Carrouthers Garrison (he changed his name
to Jim after World War II) was born in Denison,
Iowa, on November 20, 1921. He grew up and received
his early education in Chicago, where his mother
had moved after she divorced his father in 1924.
During World War II, Garrison had a long, dangerous, and distinguished career as an artillery spotter
plane pilot in the European Theatre, where he flew
many missions in an unarme'd plane over the German
lines. After the war he remained in the Army Reserve, and he was called up briefly for active duty
during the Korean War. He was returned to inactive
duty in the Reserve when he was found both physically and psychologically unsuited for combat duty.
He received psychiatric care both during and after
his Korean War service, and with apparent favorable
results,for as late as 1969 he still held an Army
Reserve Commission as a Lieutenant Colonel.
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for August, 1971
1961: Elected District Attorney
His association with New Orleans and the law
began when he attended Tulane Law School. After a
short period of service with the Federal Bureau of
Investigation, he became city attorney and then
assistant district attorney for Orleans Parish,
which encompasses most of urban New Orleans. In
1961, to the surprise of most of the local politicians, he was elected District Attorney.
The years since his first election have been
stormy ones. He drove the gamblers and the B-girls
from Bourbon Street; he bitterly attacked the police
for their complacency toward crime; and in 1962 he
became locked in abattle with all eight of the city's
Criminal Court Judges because of their refusal to
approve funds which he had requested for an indepth investigation of crime in New Orleans.
The judges charged him with defamation of character and criminal libel and fined him $1,000, but
on appeal the U.S. Supreme Court overturned the conviction in a milestone decision outlining the citizen's right to criticize public officials.
Popularity
Although Garrison has not endeared himself to the
local "powers that be," through the years he has
gained considerable popularity with the citizens of
Orleans Parish, who are, after all, the people who
pay his salary and the ones whose interests he protects and represents.
He cleaned up the French Quarter, but not to the
point of ruining it from a fun standpoint, and destroying its attractiveness to conventioneers. He
chased the gamblers across the river into Jefferson
Parish. He championed civil liberties in a city with
deep rooted Southern prejudices, and he appointed a
Negro assistant District Attorney. In late 1964,
he won reelection over the strong opposition of the
local political establishment.
In the next few years, his career became less
controversial, and, everything being equal, he
could have looked forward to more years as D.A.,
perhaps to a judgeship, or returning to the private
practice of law. For a reasonably young attorney,
Jim Garri son seemed to have "had it made. ,.
The Clay Shaw Case
Why, then, did he involve himself in the Clay
Shaw prosecution which has brought him nothing but
grief, frustration, and heartache?
37
It has been suggested by some people that the
Shaw case has been a figment of Garrison's imagination, purposely conceived in late 1966 and promoted
because of his political ambitions. In the, light
of how the case developed, this theory seems to have
perhaps some surface plausibility; but Garrison, as
an experienced prosecutor with a remarkably successful record of convictions behind him, must have knnwn
the risks involved in putting his whole career on
the line in a single case, a case with very little
merit. As he himself put it in an October, 1966,
interview by Playboy Magazine:
I was perfectly aware that I might have signed
my political death warrant the moment I launched this case -- but I couldn't care less as
long as I can shed some light on John Kennedy's
assassination.
New Orleans: Where Lee Harvey Oswald Resided
There were other factors which led to Garrison's
fateful decision. Popular belief to the contrary,
his interest in the assassination as a prosecutor
began, not in 1966, but in 1963. In fact it began
on the day John Kennedy was killed. Garrison had
been a great admirer of JFK and was terribly distraught by his murder. He also happened 'to be the
District Attorney in the city in which Lee Harvey
Oswald had grown up and in which he had resided until
shortly before the assassination. It occurred to
Garrison, that, if the assassination were the result of a conspiracy, as was the first reaction of
many people, it would not be beyond the realm of
possibility -- indeed probability -- that the roots
of the conspiracy might lie in New Orleans. Moreover, immediately after the assassination, Herman
Kohlman, one of his assistant District Attorneys,
received a tip from Jack Martin, a local investigator with intelligence connections, suggesting that
they should pick up and question a certain David
Ferrie in connection with the murder.
David Ferrie
David Ferrie was well known to both Kohlman and
Garrison; he was even better known to the New Orleans
police as a brilliant ex-Eastern Airlines pilot, a
notorious homo-sexual, a career researcher, a Civil
Air Patrol organizer, a mystic, and interestingly
enough, a man who had very active contacts with both
the Central Intelligence Agency and the Mafia. In
fact, at the exact time of the assassination he was
sitting in a New Orleans courtroom with Carlos Marcello, the alleged New Orleans underworld chieftain.
Ferrie was acting as an investigator for Marcello's
defense attorney. Marcello, who was being tried for
violation of the federal deportation laws, won a
smashing legal victory on the very day, November 22,
1963, when Kennedy was shot.
Right after court adjourned, Ferrie rushed out
and picked up two young "roommates," Alvin Beauboeuf
and Melvin' Coffey, and headed for Texas via auto.
Later, when questioned about the trip, Ferrie at
first said that they were going duck hunting; then,
subsequently, he said they were going ice-skating;
in fact, he had done neither. The threesome had
driven to Houston and then to Galveston where Ferrie
had spent several hours waiting next to a pay telephone for reasons at this time unknown. On the
afternoon and evening of November 24th, the threesome
drove back to New Orleans, after which Ferrie proceeded alone to Hammond, Louisiana (the hometown
of Clay Shaw), and back to New Orleans on Monday,
November 25. At this point he was arrested and
38
questioned by the D.A. and his staff, and then turned over to FBI agents who questioned him briefly and
released him. After pursuing several other seemingly fruitless leads, Garrison closed his books on the
case, satisfied that he had done his part in attempting to unravel the mysteries of the Kennedy murder.
Visit With Senator Russell Long
For the next three years, as far as Garrison was
concerned, the case remained closed. Many others,
however, had doubts, and the case would not stay
buried. Here in his own words is a description of
Garrison's re-entry into the case in November, 1966:
Until ~then) I had complete faith in the Warren
Report ... But then ... I visited New York
City with Senator Russell Long; and when the
subject of the assassination came up, (Long)
expressed grave doubts about the Warren Commission's conclusion that Lee Harvey Oswald
was the lone assassin. Now, this disturbed
me, because here was the Majority Whip of the
U.S. Senate speaking, not some pUblicity hound
with an ideological axe to grind; and if at
this late juncture he still entertained serious reservations about the Commission's determinations, maybe there was more to the assassination than met the eye.
So I began reading every book and magazine
article on the assassination I could get my
hands on -- my tombstone may be inscribed
"Curiosity Killed the D.A." -- and I found my
own doubts growing. Finally, I put aside all
other business and started to wade through
the Warren Commission's own 26 volumes of supportive evidence and testimony. That was the
clincher. It's impossible for anyone possessed of reasonable objectivity and a fair degree
of intelligence to read those 26 volumes and
not reach the conclusion that the Warren Commission was wrong in everyone of its major
conclusions pertaining to the assassination.
For me, that was the end of innocence ...
Weisberg and Mark Lane sparked my general
doubts about the assassinatjon; but more importantly, they led me into specific areas of
inquiry. After I realized that something was
seriously wrong, I had no alternative but to
face the fact that Oswald had arrived in
Dallas only a short time before the assassination and that prior to that time he had lived
in New Orleans for over six months. I became
curious about what this alleged assassin was
doing while under my jurisdiction, and my
staff began an investigation of Oswald's activities and contacts in the New Orleans area.
We interviewed people the Warren Commission
had never questioned; and a whole new world
began opening up. As I studied Oswald's movements in Dallas, my mind turned back to thp.
aftermath of the.assassination in 1963, when
my office questioned three men -- David
Ferrie, Alvin Beauboeuf, and Melvin Coffey -on suspicion of being involved in the assassination. I began to wonder if we hadn't ~;~
missed these three men too lightly, and we reopened our inv~stigation into their activities.
Following leads furnished by critics of the
Warren Report, Garrison and his staff began to hit
pay dirt immediately. In addition to Ferrie, Beauboeuf, and Coffey, they began to look into the activities of Oswald's Marine buddy, Kerry Thornley,
and his New Orleans lawyer, Dean Andrews. They
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for August, 1971
looked, too, for the mysLerious Clay Bertrand. They
sought and found solid leads to link Ferrie, Oswald,
and Ruby. They found footprints leading toward the
two Cuban factions, anti-Castro and pro-Castro.
Secrecy
Again contiary to current popular belief, Garrison proceeded with his invest~gation in absolute
secrecy. He realized full well its importance and
its sensitivity. His realization was strengthened
when it became clear that he was crossing the paths
of the CIA, the FBI, the Warren Commission and possibly others. He began quietly to line up support
for his investigation in the community. A group,
known as Truth or Consequences, was formed among
local business and professional men, and they lent
much moral and some financial support to the probe.
Failure of Secrecy
As the investigation widened and began to produce results, it became too big a story to keep
under cover, and it was finally broken by Rosemary
James, a local reporter, in mid February of 1967.
Then things really began to happen. Garrison had
overnight become the subject of worldwide attention
... including the attention of the federal government.
Unwisely, Garrison gave a series of press interviews, and answered questions with speculation when
he did not have the hard facts. Much of this speculation dealt with the ultimate force or forces he
suspected might have been behind the assassination.
Mention was m~de of various federal agencies, the
"military-industrial complex," Cubans, "right wing
extremists," and others. These sensational charges
coming from a responsible official whetted the
American public's well known appetite for a conspir,acy angle.
Meanwhile, Garrison's investigation was progressing rapidly. It was his intention to arrest David
Ferrie and to charge him with conspiring with Lee
Harvey Oswald, "Clay Bertrand" (an alias), and
others to kill John F. Kennedy. Several days before
the planned arrest, Ferrie actually came to Garrison, sought and received physical protection from
unspecified persons. He seemed terrified, but after several days of protective custody, and before
Garrison was ready to formally charge him, Ferrie
returned to his apartment. Within 72 hours he was
dead. The coroner's verdict was that Ferrie died
of natural causes, i.e., a heart attack. Whether
it was a natural death or not may never be known, but
it is clear that the timing of Ferrie's demise did
little to decrease Garrison's suspicions of conspiracy.
Warning
In retrospect, this turn of events should have
been a warning to Garrison to take a long hard look
before proceeding further. As matters stood at that
time, the principal suspects (Oswald, Ferrie, and
Ruby) were all dead; the identity of the other suspect, "Clay Bertrand", had not yet been established.
But, Garrison had a number of witnesses at that time
who claimed that they could and would identify Clay
Shaw as the mysterious "Clay Bertrand." The prosecutor was particularly counting on Perry Russo and
Dean Andrews.
If discretion had been the better part of valor,
Garrison would have gone no further with the prosecution of the case, at least at that time. After
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for August, 1971
all he was openly challenging the integrity of the
whole Federal Establishment, including Chief Justice
Warren, J. Edgar Hoover, members of the Warren Commission, the White House, and the Kennedy Clan. He
was a lone, local prosecutor, with local jurisdiction, little money, and a tiny staff.
Delay
Why he proceeded, no cne except Garrison really
knows, but proceed he did.
He ordered Shaw arrested, and his Rubicon had
been crossed with no turning back. He would either
win, or he would be destroyed by the federal government. The tactic chosen to frustrate Garrison's
prosecution was delay. Delay was needed to blacken
Garrison's reputation, undermine his effectiveness
as a prosecutor, and erode the underpinnings of his
case. Part of the delay that ensued was, of course,
inherent in normal criminal procedures. Shaw's lawyers filed several motions even before the pre-trial
hearing. Garrison, of course, was pushing for a
speedy trial at every turn.
Beginning in September 1967, Shaw's lawyers filed
motions for delays of the trial. These were granted .
Finally, when it became evident that no further delay
could be secured through the local courts, the defense forces turned to their friendly ally and advisor, the federal government. They filed a petition in the Federal District Court in New Orleans,
asking it to rule (1) that the Warren Commission
Report is binding upon all courts in the United
States, and (2) that all further prosecution of Clay
Shaw be enjoined. These requests were preposterous
from a legal standpoint; local law enforcement would
collapse if federal courts could enjoin local prosecutors from bringing malefactors to trial. However, this did not prevent Federal District Judge
Frederick J. R. Heebe from issuing a restraining order. A further hearing by a three-judge Federal
panel resulted in the denial of both Shaw's requested
rulings, but the court permitted the injunction
against Garrison to stand pending an appeal to the
U.S. Supreme Court, thus delaying the trial into
1969. Eventually the highest court agreed unanimouslY that Garrison had every legal right to bring Shaw
to trial. The trial finally got under way almost
two years after Shaw's arrest.
Help to Clay Shaw
The federal government made good use of the two
year delay in its effort to blacken Garrison's name
and wreck his case. Federal officials openly and
blatantly went out of their way to help Shaw and his
lawyers, despite the fact that the United States
officially had no role in the Shaw Case.
Foremost among these members of the federal government to aid Clay Shaw were then Attorney General
Ramsey Clark, highest legal officer, and Chief Justice Earl Warren. highest ranking judicial officer.
Ramsey Clark
Ramsey Clark's nomination as Attorney General
came up before the Senate Judiciary Committee on
March 22, 1967, the same day that Shaw was officially charged with conspiracy in New Orleans. Immediately upon hearing of Shaw's arrest, and before
his confirmation by the full Senate, Mr. Clark announced that in November and December of 1963, the
FBI had made an investigation of Clay Shaw and had
found him innocent of any complicity in the assassination. He did not explain why the FBI had investi-,
gated Clay Shaw.
39
When asked what he thought of the new Attorney
General's statement, Clay Shaw said, not unexpectedly, "I'm gratified." As Garrison later commented,
"Not many defendants have the Attorney General of
the United States testifying as character witness,
even before the trial is set."
Ramsey Clark's rather pointed effort to help Shaw
backfired when reporters began asking "why". Why had
the FBI checked Shaw? And why had the Attorney General made a point of helping a defendant charged
in a state court for a state crime? Later, on the
day of Clark's comment, a spokesman for the U.S.
Dept. of Justice explained that the earlier investigation of Shaw had been because of the supposed
identity of Clay Bertrand and Clay Shaw. The latter
explanation only made matters worse and, eventually
(on June 2) at the request of Shaw's lawyers, the
Justice Department stated that the Attorney General's
original statement had been untrue and that no investigation of Shaw had ever been made, because none
had been necessary. A more logical explanation is
that there had been no FBI investigation of Clay
Shaw ~ ~ in 1963, but his name had come up in
the probe of "Clay Bertrand."
Earl Warren
At about the same time Ramsey Clark was making
his first attempt to give Shaw a boost, another
voice was heard from abroad. The voice was that
of Chief Justice Earl Warren, who was traveling in
Peru. When asked about Shaw's possible implication
in the assassination, Warren said, "I have not heard
anything which would change the (Warren Commission)
Report in any way, shape, or form."
Ramsey Clark Again
Not satisfied with his first fluff, Attorney
General Clark tried again on October 13, 1967.
Following a speech to the Student Legal Forum at
the University of Virginia, he told students and
newsmen that Garrison h
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