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August, 1971
Vol. 20, No.8

9th Annual
Computer Art Contest
First Prize

The Uses of Computers
in a Political Campaign



I '

Edward Yourdon

A Systems Approach
to Job Hunting


Thomas V. Sobczak

The Japanese Computer Market






Stephen T. McClellan

The New York Times and
Computers and Automation
have published a practical guide to
the most elusive components in



computers and data processing ...














Who they are ...
What they do ...
Where they do it ...
Until now, it has been well-nigh impossible to keep track of the thousands of highly skilled professionals
fngaged in the world's fastest growmg profession.
The painstaking task required to inventDlY the qualifications and backgrounds
of the 15,000 "most necessary" professionals in every branch of the computer field has been accomplished. The
oldest magazine in the field, Computers
and Automation, and the information
retrieval selVices of The New York
Times have pooled their resources to
produce the Fifth Edition of

This is the most extensive register of
computer professionals ever published.
It is arranged in three volumes:
1. Systems Analysts and Programmers
2. Data Processing Managers and
3. Other Computer Professionals
(from professors of computer science to attorneys versed in the
computer field)
Each volume has an index to the entire
set of entries.
Each compu ter specialist has a capsule
biography detailing: Birth Date . ..
Education . .. Year Entered Computer
Field . .. Title . .. Honors . .. Memberships . .. Special Skills (from applications to logic to sales) ...

PLUS both home and business addresses. For example:
CHAPIN, Ned I consultant I born: 1927 I
educ: PhD, lIT; MBA, Univ of Chicago I
entered computer field: 1954 I main interests: applications, business, logic, management, programming, systems, data
structures I title: data processing consultant I organization: InfoSci Inc, Box 464,
Menlo Park, CA 94025 I publications,
honors: 3 books, over 50 papers; member,
over 12 associations; COP; lecturer for
ACM I home address: 1190 Bellair Way,
Menlo Park, CA 94025

This reference is particularly useful for:
personnel managers; employers; recruiting organizations; libraries; conference
planners; directors of computer installations; ... anyone who needs to keep up
with the important people in the field.

FIFTH EDITION - Over 1000 pages
The coupon below will bring you the 3volume set at the price of $75. There is
no risk involved. 10-Day Free Examination.

Edited by Edmund C. Berkeley
3 volumes in durable hard-cover
Retail price $75 the set

---------(may be copied on any piece ofpaper)--------I

Who's Who in Computers and Data Processing,
815 Washington St., Newtonville, Mass. 02160


) Please send the 3-volume set WHO'S WHO IN COMPUTERS AND DATA
PROCESSING at $75. You will bill me after delivery and I may return
the set within 10 days if not fully satisfied.
( ) Please make this order a standing order for the 5th and later editions - so
that I will receive all updating supplements free automatically.
( ) I have already bought the 5th Edition. Please change my record of purchase to a standing order, and send me Supplement 1 FREE.



L ______________________________ I


avoid pitfalls?
find new paths around old obstacles?
apply in practical situations the observations and
wisdom of great scientists and wise men?
stimulate your resourcefulness?

see new solutions to old problems?
distinguish between sense and nonsense?
increase your accomplishments?
improve your capacities?

The C&A



devoted to research, development, exposition, and illustration of one of the most important
of all branches of Imowledge, i. e. the subject of WHAT IS GENERALLY TRUE AND IMPORTANT


Common Sense + Wisdom + Judgment + Maturity + Science in General + Problem Solving Techniques +
Methods for Avoiding Mistakes + Some Operations Research + Some Systems Analysis + ................ .

Editor: Edmund C. Berkeley, author, businessrn~~
actuary, scientist, computer profess;
first secretary of the Association f(
Computing Machinery 1947-53, ec
of Computers and Automation.



and True Conclusions
se, Elementary and Advanced
ld Proverbs


'e to Understand
ent in any Field of Knowledge



815 Washington St., R3,
YES, please entm
24 issues

Please send me


3e at $12 a year,




Right Answer:
The Empty Cc
The Golden -Strategy in
The Barrels
The Argume


I enclose $_ _

Ilease bill my organization


San Jose


Public Library

Address _________________





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Careful usoge of books is expeoted and any soiling,

damage or loss is to be paid for by the borrower.

- - - - - - - - - - - - -,

Vol. 20, No.8
August, 1971

and automation
The magazine of the design, applications, and implications
of information processing systems.


Edmund C. Berkeley

/lHistant Editors

linda Ladd Lovett
Neil D. Macdonald

Software Editor

Stewart B. Nelson


Edmund C. Berkeley

Art Di"ectors


Computer Art


Sea Horses
Derby Scanlon
Derby Scanlon
Derby Scanlon
Deer and Fir Trees
Grace C. Hertlein
Leonard Kilian and Campion Kulczynski
Black Star
Sozo Hashimoto
Paisley Patterns
Natura Mainensis
Ed Jenner
Bridge Over Troubled Water Goran Sundquist
Thomas J. Huston
Dr. Herbert W. Franke
Computer Structure
P. Struycken
20,000 Lines Under the Sea Ruth E. Dayhoff and Elaine A. Roberts
Floating Points
Manfred Mohr
Serielle Zeichenreihung
Manfred Mohr
A Formal Language
Manfred Mohr
Snow Crystals
Lloyd Sumner
Don Quixote
James Daly
Names and Addresses of Computer Artists Who Entered the
1971 Contest

Ray W. Hass
Daniel T. Langdale


John Bennett
Moses M. Berlin
Andrew D. Booth
John W. Carr III
Ned Chapin
Alston S. Householder
Leslie Mezei
Ted Schoeters
Richard E. Sprague


James J. Cryan
Alston S. Householder
Bernard Quint

[T A]






Computers and Politics
Editorial Offices

Berkeley Enterprises, Inc.
815 Washington St.,
Newtonville, Mass. 02160


Berkeley Enterprises, Inc.
815 Washington St.,
Newtonville, Mass. 02160

Computers and Automation is published monthly
(except two issues in June) at 815 Washington
St., Newtonville, Mass. 02160, by Berkeley Enterprises, Inc. Printed in U.S.A.
Subscription rates: United States, 11 monthly
issues and two issues in June (one of which
is a directory issue) - $18.50 for 1 year, $36.00
for 2 years; 12 monthly issues (without directory
issue in June) - $9.50 for 1 year; $18,00 for
2 years. Canada, add 50¢ a year for postage;
foreign, add $3.50 a year for postage. Address
all U.S. subscription mail to: Berkeley Enterprises,
Inc., 815 Washington St., Newtonville, Mass.
02160. Second Class Postage paid at Boston, Mass.
Postmaster:.Please send all forms 3579 to Berkeley
Enterprises, Inc., 815 Washington St., Newtonville,
Mass. 02160. © Copyright 1971, by Berkeley Ente rp ri ~es, Inc.
Change of address: If your address changes,
please send us both your new address and your old
address (as it appears on the magazine address
imprint), and allow three weeks for the change to
be made.



by Edward Yourdon, Consultant
A review of some of the techniques that a political
candidate and his scientific advisers may use, in order to
locate, attract, and recruit supporters of the candidate.

Computer Professionals

[T A]
by Thomas V. Sobczak, Manager, Systems and Electronic
Data Processing, Waldes Kohinoor, Inc.
Howa computer professional can apply the systems
analysis of his profession to locating and securing a
"perfect" job for himself.

Computers Abroad

.... Part One
[T A]
by Stephen T. McClellan, Analyst, U. S. Department of
Japan~se research, technology, and production have advanced
to the point where Japanese computers are internationally
competitive; how the Japanese are marketing their computers so as to penetrate markets everywhere.
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for Auqust, 1971

Computers and Education

[T E]
by Edmund C. Berkeley, Editor, Computers and Automation
Basically, there seem to be three different kinds of computerassisted instruction, and the "learner controlled" kind may
produce enormous gains.

Computers, Science, and Assassinations

[NT A]
by Bernard Fensterwald, Attorney, Executive Director,
National Committee to Investigate Assassinations
How District Attorney Jim Garrison of New Orleans became
interested in the New Orleans phase of the assassination of
President Kennedy; and how the federal government frus"
trated and blocked his investigation in more than a dozen

Forum and Golden Trumpet


[NT G]
by Daniel Ellsberg, M. I. T., and the Editor
The history of lying about Vietnam, by the federal government including the Pentagon; what Ellsberg has said; and how
the military industrial complex is really interested not in the
security of the United States but in something else.

[NT F]
by James D. White and the Editor
Why is it that less specialized publications than C&A, most
of which have a clear duty in the area of getting at the truth,
exhibit little of the interest of C&A at getting at the truth?
Is normal human behavior about a new idea to deny it?

Front Cover Picture
"Sea Horses", winner of the
first prize in C&A's Ninth Annual
Computer Art Contest, was produced by a FORTRAN program
run on a GE 425 computer and
plotted on a Calcomp 30" drum
plotter. The artist is Derby Scanlon, Phoenix, Arizona. For more
information, see page 8.


Across the Editor's Desk
Education News
Research Frontier
Advertising Index
Calendar of Coming
Classified Advertisement


Monthly Computer
New Contracts
New Installations


Computers and Puzzles

Numbles, by Neil Macdonald

[T C]


Problem Corner, by Walter Penney, CDP

[T C]





and AUTOMATION for August, 1971



Monthly Column
Golden Trumpet

[NT] - Not Technical
[R] - Reference Information
[T] - Technical Computer

c. a


Learner-Co.ntrolled Computer-Assisted Instruction
From the point of view of teaching, there seem to be
nowadays three basically different kinds of computer-assisted instruction:

1. Single-path programmed instruction. In this mode
(Mode 1) a teacher or educa'l:ional psychologist
(curren t jargon, "instructional expert") decides
just what the student should learn at each step or
unit. These decisions may (or may not) be confirmed with a professor or scholar (current jargon,
"subject-matter expert"). The sequence of steps
then becomes a computer program; and all that
the student can do with this program (in this
mode) is to go through the programmed instruction faster or slower than the average student.
2. Several-path programmed instruction. In this mode
(Mode 2) the teacher allows the student to choose
from time to time (or actually shunts the student)
between several tracks: usually a fast track, a slow
track, and an average track. In Mode 1 every unit
in the fast track is present in the average track, and
every unit in the average track is present in the
slow track. But in Mode 2 each of the tracks may
contain some units not present in either of the
other two tracks.
3. Infinitely many paths of learning within an interactive computer program. In this mode (Mode 3)
for each topic, the student explores and learns
interactively, until he knows what is to be learned
under that topic. The computer program responds
interactively - gives him answers, questions, hints,
responses of many kinds, etc., which a student
may want or may need. The computer-assisted
instructional program may fill one or more roles
such as: teacher, author, personal tutor, drill sergeant, calculating prodigy, experimenting prodigy,
memory prodigy, scorekeeper, guide, philosopher,
and friend. We can call this mode (Mode 3)
learner-controlled computer assisted instruction.
How shall we decide which one of these modes is best
(current jargon: "optimal")?
In order to decide which one is best, we need to conSIder
a number of scales along which we might measure from one
extreme of very poor to the other extreme of very good.
These might include:
- Amount of time required to learn
- Cost
Satisfaction and enjoyment for the student
Ease of teaching for the teacher
Motivation of the student, from very weak or
absen t to very strong or overwhelming
- Quality of the knowledge or training learned
Then the best method of instruction would be that
Takes almost no time
Takes almost no effort

Costs almost nothing
Is very enjoyable and satisfying
Is ext~emely easy for the teacher to teach
Provides great motivation
Produces complete knowledge or skill
In fact, there actually exist some learning processes that
are extremely good in all these respects, such as:
Learning to eat free ice cream
Learning to take deep breaths of fresh mountain
With the arrival of cheap computing power, the third
mode - infinitely many paths of learning - is, it seems to
me, very likely to produce an enormous jump in the use
and profitability of computer-assisted instruction in all
1. Time. The time required to learn can be adapted
to the particular student - his nature and his
. needs.
2. Effort. As a result of the interaction between the
student and the learner-controlled computerassisted instruction in a computer program, the
effort by the student can be lessened and lessened.
3. Cost. In days to come, the use of an entire
minicomputer to teach, will cost less than 15 cents
an hour.
4. Enjoyment. The satisfaction and the enjoyment
for the student can become greater and greater.
Driving a computer will become as much fun as
driving a car.
S. Ease of Teaching. Almost all the teacher will have
to do is to arrange a computer program which can
deal with all the natural questions and natural
troubles of a student. The program should respond
sensibly to each of the student's needs or wants as
it is expressed. For a few years, the computer will
usually need letters or digits typed on a keyboard
- but later on the computer will respond to letters
or digits spoken.
6. Motivation. As H. G. Wells said in "Men Like
Gods", his novel of a fine Utopia, "curiosity, the
play impulse" will become the great motivator.
7. Quality of Learning. The student finishes his learning - not when the course period comes to an end
- but when he has, attained the goals of an
adequate or a complete knowledge.
In years to come, in fact, the results of learner-controlled computer-assisted instruction may be placed among
the most'important of all benefits derived from computers.

Edmund C. Berkeley
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for August, 1971

21 ways to improve your
computer system's performance.
Here are some of over 150 IBM program products to help
your computer do more work. And do it more profitably.
There's a program that lets your salesman se'arch the
computer's file while he's got a customer on the phone.
A program that helps your company's executives decide
which products to make, when to make them, where to ship them.
There are programs that help your programmers become
more productive. By letting them spend more time writing programs, less time debugging them.
If you'd like a complete description of these and other programs, just fill in the coupon below. Or call your local IBM office.

Languages, sorts, time sharing


PL/I Optimizing Compiler (OS, DOS)
Offers greatly increased execution, new language features, improved debugging aids
and communication with existing FORTRAN
and COBOL object modules.


ANS Full COBOL Version 3 (OS, DOS)
Contains major improvements in debugging
aids, additional functions and ASCII support.


FORTRAN IV (H Extended) Compiler (OS)
Supports extended precision arithmetic, two
new forms of input/output for ease of use, and
improved compilation speed and reliability.


Interactive Terminal Facility (ITF) (OS,
DOS) Provides time sharing for problem
solvers using BASIC and Interactive PL/I.


OS-Sort/Merge 1 (OS-SM1) (OS) Improved speed and functions over previous
as sorts. Provides support for IBM 3330 Disk


Assembler H (OS) A new high performance assembler language processor for as
users. Requires no reprogramming or conversion for current as assembler users.


1130 COBOL Specifically designed compiler featuring high speed compilation and
fast execution for small to medium IBM 1130


APL/3S0 (OS, DOS) A user-oriented program with a language designed for problem
solving and a time sharing capability that lets
many users work independently at the same
Data entry, data base


Customer Information Control System
(CICS) (OS, DOS) The link between your
computer's data base and the applications
you want to put on-line. By providing many
of the standard control functions, CICS lets
your programmers concentrate on coding the
applications. Helps you save implementation
time and cost.

10. Data/3S0 (OS, DOS)

A general purpose
data-entry program. Data is entered and
verified through IBM displays, edited and
written out on disk files.




Data Base Organization and Maintenance Processor (DOS) A system to integrate
data files into a central data base for query
applications· involving existing multiple customer files.
12. Generalized Information System/2
(GIS/2) (OS) A high-level query and file
maintenance system particularly useful for
meeting spontaneous information requirements or handling repetitive jobs.
Information M~nagement System/3S0
(IMS/3S0) Version 2 (OS) Facilitates use of
medium to large common data bases and
accommodates teleprocessing and batch
processing, concurrently or separately.
14. Project Management System IV (PMS
IV) (OS) A powerful program in modular
form for resource allocation, cost analysis
and precedence input analysis.



Requirements Planning (OS) A materials management system designed to determine what, when and how much to order in a
manner that will help minimize component

Shop Floor Control (OS, DOS) Establishes and maintains a shop order data base
and provides for shop order release, status
and inquiry for timely management decisions.
Consumer Goods System-Forecasting
and Allocation (OS, DOS' Determines what
amounts of fini"shed goods to make, order or
ship to stocking locations to satisfy multiple


General Purpose Simulation System V
(GPSS V) (OS, DOS) Powerful, easy-to:use
tool for Simulating the behavior of systems in
engineering and management sciences.


Bill of Material Processor (System/3
ModelS and Model 10 Disk) Establishes and
maintains basic manufacturing files describing the structure of products and their manufacturing procedures.

20. Law Enforcement Manpower Resource
Allocation System (OOS) Provides ability to
determine field manpower requirements, on
as-needed basis and future-plans basis.


Mathematical Programming System
Extended (MPSX) and Mixed Integer Programming (MIP) (OS) A new, economic optimization system offering greatly extended
modeling capabilities.

r-----------------------------------------Director, Programming Systems Marketing
IBM Corporation
1133 Westchester Avenue
White Plains, New York 10604
Please send me information on these Program Products:
o Languages, sorts, time sharing
o Data entry, data base



o Applications

Name __________________________________________________________________________________
Title __________________________________________________________________________________
Company ______________________________________________________________________
Add res s,______________________________________________________ Z i p ______________


- Derby Scanlon (U. S. A. )
The first prize in our 1971 Computer Art Contest
has been awarded to Derby Scanlon, 1308 W. Whitton
Ave., Phoenix, Arizona 85013. The winning entry,
"Sea Horses", has been published on the front cover of
this issue. Two other entries, "Sailfish" and "Phoenix",
are shown above and on the page opposite.
"Sea Horses ", "Sailfish" and "Phoenix" were created
using a common building block, which was computed and
plotted by one subroutine. The main programs for the


three designs control the sizes and positions of the building blocks. Almost all of each figure is described mathematic ally, with only a few portions positioned manually
(via data cards). The plots were produced by FORTRAN
programs run on aGE 425 computer, and plotted on a
Calcomp 30" drum plotter.
The computer art on the pages which follow receives
honorable mention. For some of the drawings, the explanation is obvious or c an be inferred easily; for others,

COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for August, 1971

explanations are given. In a number of cases, the computer and the peripheral equipment which produced the
drawings have not been specified as much as we would
like, because that information did not reach us by the
close of the contest. We would, of course, like to
identify the equipment that produced the art. Supplementary information of this kind should be sent to us
for publication in a future issue.
The response to our Ninth Annual Computer Art
Contest was very good. We received over 140 computer
drawings from allover the world - Czechoslovakia,
France, Holland, Japan, Sweden, and the United States.

We are grateful to all those persons who sent us entries.
A complete alphabetical listing of the names and addresses of all persons who submitted entries in this year's
contest appears on the last page of the art section of this
issue. In forthcoming issues of Computers and Automation,
we hope to publish some of the drawings we were not able
to include in this issue.
For August, 1972, we plan our Tenth Annual Computer Art Contest, and we cordially invite contributions
of computer art from all our readers and others who are
interested in computer art.

- Derby Scanlon
(U. S.A.)

COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for August, 1971


- Grace C. Hertlein (U. S. A.)
This drawing is a by-product from a course entitled "ComputerGraphics as an Art Form", taught by Miss Grace C. Hertlein,
Assistant Professor, Computer Science Dept., Chico State
College, Chico, California.


COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for August, 1971



















- Leonard Kilian and Campion Kulczynski (U. S. A.)

Lines emanate from a point in the interior of a sphere formed by randomly perturbed sine
waves. FORTRAN language was employed on a Univac 1107 with a Calcomp 563 plotter.



O/J': 0t~

~(.,~(~( W ~."
- Sozo Hashimoto (Japan)


. I _ ••


if' .;~ 'i.! "t~ ~r


,ft":'} }4

These five paisley shawl patterns
evolved from an experiment to
develop a new design method. In
this experiment, an IBM 7040 computer programmed in FORTRAN IV
was used.


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COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for August, 1971





COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for August, 1971

Ed Jenner (U. S. A.)
The drawing at the left is a random design produced by an analog computer.
For more information, see the last page of the art section in this issue.

Goran Sundquist (Sweden).
This is one of several pictures computed by
the same program, "Dart computer art
algorithm", with different parameters.
The computer is the Swedish Datasaab
D22 in connection with the Tektronix
611-display. The display is photographed
on microfilm for high contrast.

Copyright 1971, Thomas J. Huston, Computl'a

Thomas J. Huston
(U. S.A.)
Two sine curves of varying amplitude
and period are generated from random
values and then added together. The
resultant curve' is then plotted representing the land. The water is obtained
by repeatedly plotting a smaller sine
wave while constantly changing its
period, amplitude, and spacing. An
IBM 1130 and Calcomp Plotter were

COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for August, 1971


- Dr. Herbert W. Franke
(West Germany)

- P. Struycken (Holland)

The output from the computer was via the line
printer; the computer
is an X8. The program
has elements of random
opposite restrictions.


COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for August, 1971

















20,000 LINES
- Ruth E. Dayhoff

Elaine A. Roberts
(U. S. A.)
The program for this
drawing was written
in FORTRAN and run
on an IBM 360/44
computer. The program computed the
points for the linegrid drawing and
produced a plotter
tape. The draWing
was made on a
Calcomp 565 offline plotter.


- Manfred Mohr (France)
A family of closed and parallel curves are calculated
by a combination of moving circles, and a third
degree spline function is used for interpolation.
This program (no. 62) was written in FORTRAN IV
and run on a CDC 6400 computer. The graphics
are drawn on a Benson plotter.

. - Manfred Mohr (Fr,ance)
This drawing is ',builtfrom -vertic:al columns~ where the horizontallength is randomly chosen. The total horizontal length
sums to a given ·nuniber,. In.the form of a 10gica1 tree, symbols can be generated and will be repeated until the already
chosen horizontal length is :reached. The height of the columns depends on the size of the chosen symbols. In each
column a symbol can appear twice. (This was Program no. 71.)

COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for August, 1971


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"n v1" o / 0 MOHR 70 A FORMAL LANGUAGE Manfred Mohr (France) A set built out of circles (the radius is randomly chosen) and symbols of zero to 7 straight lines was generated by Program 28 (horizontals, verticals, and 4S:> lines). Then these are arranged by Program 49 in equal distances on an imaginary grid of 1280 boxes (1 cm x 1 cm). The circles have a high probability of placement outside the boxes. This drawing gives the effect of hieroglyphic writing. COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for August, 1971 21 tv tv Copyright 1970 by Computer Creations n o S -0 C ;:ri ;;0 Ul OJ :::J Q... p C -I o S P -I (5 Z --r, ~ p C SNOW CRYSTALS Lloyd Sumner (U. S. A.) (!} ,~ -0 '-J Produced with the aid of a Burroughs B5500 and a Calcomp 565, using controlled randomness in a fairly accurate model of snowflake development. Each call on the procedure produces a different snowflake; each one has six symmetrical sides and 60 degree angles. (Brochures describing Mr. Sumner's work in computer art are available on request from Computer Creations, P. O. Box 1842, Charlottesville, Va. 22903.) D ON QUIXOTE James Daly (U. S. A.) A lithograph of the original "Don Quixote" by Picasso was digitized, producing these images. The original was distorted slightly, and multiple images were plotted using standard Calcomp software on a Control Data 3300. COMPUTER ARTISTS The following is an alphabetical listing of all persons who submitted entries in the Ninth Annual Computer Art Contest of Computers and Automation. The names of persons whose drawings are published in this issue are marked with an asterisk (*). We are planning to publish in the future some of the drawings we were not able to include in this issue. Bromley, Charles, Computra, Box 608, Upland, IN 46989 Chlouba, Jan, Sudanski 597, Prague 6, Czechoslovakia Corley, Henry P. T., Analog Computing, P. O. Box 3043, Richmond, VA 23235 *Daly, James, St. Louis University, Yalem Scientific Computer Center, 3690 W. Pine Blvd., St. Louis, MO 63108 * Dayhoff, Ruth E., National Biomedical Research Foundation, Georgetown Univ. Medical School, 3900 Reservoir Rd., N. W., Washington, DC 20007 Foley, Dr. G. J., American Oil Co., 2400 New York Ave., Whiting, IN 46394 *Franke, Dr. Herbert W., 8191 Puppling Nr. 40, West Germany Gerding, Paul R., St. Louis University, Yalem Scientific Computer Center, 3690 W. Pine Blvd., St. Louis, MO 63108 Grysiewicz, E. S., American Oil Co., 2400 New York Ave., Whiting, IN 46394 *Hashimoto, Sozo, 28-2 2-chome Komazawa, SetagayaKu, Tokyo, Japan Hendricks, Mrs. Leigh, Sandia Laboratories, P. O. Box 5800, Albuquerque, NM 87115 *Hertlein, Grace C., Computer Science Dept., Chico State College, Chico, CA 95926 *Huston, Thomas J., Computra, Box 608, Upland, IN 46989 *Jenner, Ed, The Boston Globe, 135 Wm. T. Morrissey Blvd., Boston, MA 02125 Kawano, Hiroshi, 3-16-1-15, Aoto, Katsushika-ku, Tokyo, Japan *Kilian, Leonard, 37 Burnham Dr., W. Hartford, CT 06010 Knowlton, Ken, Bell Telephone Labs., Inc., Murray Hill, NJ 07974 COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for August, 1971 *Kulczynski, Campion, Box 178, Notre Dame, IN 46556 Kunii, Mutsuko, 1-18-17-chome Syoan, Suginami-Ku, Tokyo, Japan Lipscomb, James S., 26 Woodfall Rd., Belmont, MA 02178 Magnuski, Hank, Bell Telephone Labs., Murray Hill, NJ 07974 Maynard, H. M., Cornell Aeronautical Laboratory, Inc. of Cornell University, P. O. Box 235, Buffalo, NY 14221 Mittleman, Don, Box 178, Notre Dame, IN 46556 *Mohr, Manfred, 58 Bld. Latour-Maubourg, Paris 7, France Munday, B. C. , III, Systems Engrg. Labs., 6901 W. Sunrise Blvd., Ft. Lauderdale, FL 33313 Robbins, Dr. Donald K., Sandia Laboratories, P. O. Box 5800, Albuquerque, NM 87115 *Roberts, Elaine A., National Biomedical Research Foundation, Georgetown Univ. Medical School, 3900 Reservoir Rd., N. W., Washington, DC 20007 *Scanlon, Derby, 1308 W. Whitton Ave., Apt. 3, Phoenix, AZ 85013 Schwartz, Lillian, Bell Telephone Labs., Inc., Murray Hill, NJ 07974 Seeley, R. W., McDonnell Douglas Automation Co., 3855 Lakewood Blvd., Long Beach, CA 90801 Shah, Bharat K., 240 N. Minnesota, Wichita, KS 67214 Strand, Kerry, Calcomp, 2411 W. La Palma, Anaheim, CA 92801 *Struycken, P., Spoorwegstraat 35a, Arnheim, Holland *Sumner, Lloyd, Computer Creations, P. O. Box 1842, Charlottesville, VA 22903 * Sundquist, Go'ran, Kraftdata Aktiebolag, Box 3118, 103 62, Stockholm 3, Sweden Volkstorf, Charles, 3712 Shoreline Dr., Portsmouth, VA 23703 Volkstorf, Ed, DCSLOG Data Processing Center, D-Division, RAAP, Radford, VA 24141 Natura Mainensis: The analog computer is the Penobscot River in Maine. The graphic display is Seboomook Lake. The elements are logs. Photograph from a helicopter by Ed Jenner. Reprinted with permission from The Boston Globe, June 5, 1971, with much appreciation. 23 'T.HE USES OF C'OMPUTERS INA POLITICAL CAMPAIGN "There is reason to believe that the use of computers will increase significantly during the nex t few election campaigns. The level of familiarity with computers among professional politicians and political scientists has increased tremendously. " Edward Y ourdon 527 Third St. Brooklyn. N.Y. 11215 It has been more than ten years since John F. Kennedy first made significant use of a digital computer in his 1960 Presidential campaign. Since that time, the public's interest in the political uses of compu ters has been aroused only on infrequent occasions: occasional blunders on the part of election prediction programs put together by the major networks; occasional revelations that some political candidates are using computers to improve the efficiency of their mailing campaigns; occasional books that dramatize the use of computers in a campaign, such as Eugene Burdick's, The 480. However, there is reason to believe that the use of computers will increase significantly during the next few election campaigns; the level of familiarity with computers among the professional politicians and the political scientists has increased tremendously. Since in terest in the 1972 campaign has already begun to grow at this early date, it might be apj)fopriate to review some of the techniques that will be used to locate, attract and recruit constituents during the next couple of years. For the most part, political organizations have only made use of the computer's ability to print information and manipulate numbers; there has been very little, if any, use of the computer's ability to select, retrieve and analyze information. The purpose of this paper is to point out that computers could be used to help the political organization store and retrieve information easily; for completeness, some of the more straightforward uses of computers are also described. There are three major areas in which a computer would be helpful: organizational and record-keeping activities; statistical analyses and simulations; and information retrieval and political "intelligence". Each of these categories is discussed below. Organizational Activities Any political organization must perform a number of rather mundane functions, many of which are traditionally carried out by volunteer workers. The advantage of the volunteer worker is, of course, that he is unpaid. The 24 computer, though sometimes expensive, has the advantage that it is fast, thorough, and less error-prone in the area of simple, tedious clerical activities. Some of the clerical activities that could be carried out by a computer are the following: Mailing Lists Mailing lists represent one of the simplest applications of computers. Voter registration lists, or any other list of people, can be maintained on magnetic tape, and the computer can easily be programmed to generate mailing labels whenever the organization wants to mail some political literature. Since this use of compu ters has attracted a good deal of attention within the advertising and business community lately, we might discuss some developments which might be of interest in a political campaign. The paper industry, for example, now supplies a number of different types of pre-fabricated "packages" in a form ready to be used on a high-speed printer. These packages can include a letter already inserted into an envelope, and the computer can be programmed to simultaneously print the address on the envelope, and, with the use of carbon paper or other "impact" techniques, a greeting or short message on the letter inside. This eliminates human handling of the letter altogether; unfortunately, it is often done so sloppily that the recipient knows that the letter has nev.er been touched by human hands. It should also be remembered that a large number of organizations, including magazines, government agencies and advertising firms have mailing lists available for sale. If. for example, one wanted to send some political literature to members of the scientific community, it would be a relatively simple matter to obtain the mailing lists of various scientific journals and trade magazines, already on magnetic tape. Similar techniques could be used to reach the business community, the academic community, the "playboy" community, etc. The computer can also be used to generate "personalized" letters from a candidate. Given a form letter and COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for August, 1971 various pieces of information about the recipient of the letter (such as his name, address, party affiliation, vocation, birthday, etc.), the computer could be programmed to "write" a letter on the high-speed printer. The type font on some of the better printers, such as IBM's 1403 printer, is of sufficiently good quality that the letter would almost appear to be typewritten. Once again, a certain amount of care is important, if the letter is to have any impact at all: if the letter is going to be sent to Mr. John Smith, Jr., and a sloppily-written program causes the letter to be addressed to "Dear Mr. J r.:", the candidate may well have lost a vote. The same thing happens in the advertising world, of course, but the stakes are not quite as high. When the mailing list is encoded on magnetic tape (or disk, or cards, or any other reasonable storage medium), as much information as possible should be maintained for each voter. That is, in addition to the voter's name and address, the mailing list record should indicate his age, party affiliation, number of children, type of job, salary range, and anything else that might be politically significant. This will permit a computer program to select voters with specified attributes; such a program might be used, for example, to select all unemployed minority Army veterans for distribution of a particular leaflet. The computer could also be used to introduce a little more flexibility into the candidate's schedule. For example, if it was discovered that the candidate had more time available in a certain city or state than had originally been anticipated, the computer could indicate the alternate campaign activities for that area. In the opposite vein, if the candidate discovered that he was falling behind schedule, or that he did not have enough time to visit a particular state or city, the computer could indicate which campaign stops could be rescheduled, and which ones would have to be cancelled. Statistical Analyses and Simulation There has been a great deal of interest in this area, especially since the television networks have begun to use computers to predict the outcome of elections. It cannot be overemphasized that the success of predictions, polls and simulations depends almost entirely on the proper interpretation of the statistics, something which no computer can do without some help from an intelligent political analyst. However, given the proper direction, there is no doubt that a computer can be extremely helpful in the gathering and analysis of complex political data. Some of the areas that might be of interest are the following: Fund-Raising Apparatus Another use of a computer might be to keep track of the fund-raising apparatus of the political organization. Thus, the computer could maintain a list of all contributors to local, state and national campaigns, as well as revenue from other sources, such as fund-raising dinners, charities, etc. In addition to simply maintaining a list of contributors, the computer could also be used to help prod them into more donations. For example, the computer could regularly print a list of all contributors who had not made any donations for six months or more; similarly, it could identify "regular" contributors, so that they could be personally cajoled into additional contributions. It is worth noting that this type of computerized fund-raising apparatus might eventually be desirable, or even necessary, from a legal point of view. If tighter laws regarding campaign expenditures are ever passed, it might be preferable to have a computer keep the records, rather than an error-prone human being. I Scheduling of Activities A national campaign becomes progressively more hectic as Election Day draws near, and the candidate's time must be scheduled carefully. In addition, it is important to schedule the time of other key operatives in the campaign, many of whom may function somewhat independently of the candidate. Traditionally, schedules have been maintained by one of the candidate's campaign aides. In the long run, this might prove to be less expensive than a computer; nevertheless, there are a number of intriguing things that could be carried out with the aid of a computer. For example, the computer could map out the most "efficient" campaign trail (in a fashion similar to the type of optimization that has been done for trucking firms, salesmen, etc.), given information about the relative importance of campaigning in certain states or cities at certain times. This might eliminate some unnecessary travelling, and ensure that the candidate is in the key states at the right time. COMPUTERS and AUTOMA nON for August, 1971 Polls and Opinion Trends Clearly, polls could easily be taken without the use of computers: the only thing that is really required is a few people to interview random samples of the voting pUblic. The advantage of a computer is that it would allow polling to be done on a continual basis. Campaign workers in widely separated areas of the country could sample random elements of the public on a daily basis; the results could be fed into the computer from remote terminals, or they could be telephoned to workers at the central computer site. The computer could then issue frequent reports on the candidate's popularity (or lack of it), and other voter opinion trends. It is not at all clear that frequent computerized polls would be worth the expense of the computer; as we mentioned above, volunteer workers are much less expensive. However, there might be some value associated with the fact that the computer can tabulate its results very quickly - in the extreme case, we could have a real-time polling system, for the politicians whose egos need to be assuaged continually; manual analysis, on the other hand, might take several days. This might be important if the candidate or his political advisors want to measure the reaction to an opponent'sspeech, so that he could make an immediate reply. Also, it should be pointed out that if a computer is available for other purposes, it would require very little extra work to write the poll-analyzing program; in fact, the same volunteer labor that was used to manually gather and analyze the polls might perhaps be put to work to write the programs! I Voting Trends Another use of compu ters would be to analyze the results of past elections on a state-by-state or precinct-byprecinct basis. This analysis could begin now, since the 1970 election returns are readily available. An analysis of the vote over the past ,four to ten years could indicate important shifts in party strengths, ticket-splitting habits, 25 ethnic preferences, voter disenchantment, popularity of certain issues (e.g., the ubiquitous war, the economy, law-and-order, etc.), and so forth, assuming, of course, that one knows how to properly interpret the statistics. The analysis of past elections might thus provide useful information at the beginning of the 1972 campaign; it would indicate, for example, where more intensive campaigning was necessary and where the key precincts were located, as of 1968 or 1970. More important, the same analysis program might be used to digest the results of the 1972 primary campaign, so that an even more up-to-date picture of voting trends could be given. Simulation of the Convention and the Election Statistics on opinion trends and voting trends can be even more useful if they are combined into a simulation, or a compu terized model, of the election. In much the same way that computers can be used to conduct military war games, they could be used to conduct political campaign "games". One is reminded, of course, of the criticisms that have been levelled at systems like the proposed ABM system: the only way of testing it is in a "live" situation. The same may possibly be true of a political "game", but there are no lives at stake; furthermore, what better way is there for Nelson Rockefeller to spend his money - nothing else has worked, so why not try a computer? It is important to realize that the computer would not be simply predicting the outcome of the election based on available statistics. Instead, it would be presented with "scenarios", and then it would be asked to predict the outcome of the election. Thus, the computer might be told that the following conditions exist as of November, 1972: 1. Unemployment has fallen to 4.3%. 2. Inflation, or the rise in prices, has levelled off at 5% per year. 3. Troop levels in Vietnam are down to 100,000, but there is no progress at the Paris peace talks, and the Vietcong are creating havoc in Cambodia, Laos and South Vietnam. 4. There have been relatively few riots or campus disturbances during the summer of 1972. 5. Nixon takes a hard stand on the law-and-order issue, a conciliatory stand on issue X, a noncommittal stand on issue Y (e.g., "I have a plan, but it would be inappropriate for me to reveal it at this time"), etc. Having been presented with this scenario, the computer would then attempt to predict the outcome of the election, and more important, would show a breakdown of the vote. The same "game" could then be played with a different scenario, e.g., assuming that unemployment is at 6%, inflation has fallen off to 2%, etc. A simulation of this kind depends on one critical element: an accurate model of the voter. To construct a model, a political analyst would have to describe the "likes" and "dislikes" of voters in key precincts of each state. He would have to tell the computer, for example, that voters in Manhattan's Upper East Side are more concerned with inflation and law-and-order than they are with unemployment; more important, he would have to tell the computer how much more concerned the voters were with one issue over another. Much of this information could be gathered in the type of polls that were discussed above; of course, this kind of 26 simulation would be an important argument for the use of computerized polls and opinion sampling. As the campaign progressed, new polls could be used to update the model; new data about the state of the economy, the level of the war and various other news events could also be inserted int; the model. Even more important, the results of primaries could be used to verify the model; If the model did not accurately predict the outcome of the primary, it could be "tuned" so that it would eventually become reasonably accurate. A computerized simulation of a political campaign has three major uses: it can identify the issues of greatest interest to the electorate; it can demonstrate the issues and scenarios most damaging to the opponentes); and it can demonstrate the issues and scenarios most helpful to the candidate. There is, of course, a potential moral problem, since the computer might indicate that an issue in which the candidate believes very strongly is very unpopular with the voters; it should be remembered, though, that the same problem existed long before the introduction of computers, and political candidates will continue to be faced with the same difficult decisions when faced with a controversial or unpopular stand on an issue. There is certainly nothing immoral, however, about using a computer to more accurately determine the opponent's strengths or weaknesses; it would be very helpful, for example, to know whether Nixon is more vulnerable in the area of law-and-order, the economy, Vietnam, or lack of moral leadership. Similarly, the computer can indicate the issues and scenarios for which the candidate himself should strive, in order to maximize his chances of election. Finally, we should point out that the same techniques could be used to simulate the national conventions. In this case, of course, the voters consist of the convention delegates. The simulation program would obviously have to recognize that many of the votes are committed in one way or another long before the delegate arrives at the convention; nevertheless, the computer could still be used to examine and analyze various scenarios, and might be useful in the determination of various pre-convention strategies. I nformation Retrieval and Political "I ntelligence" Many of the ideas that have been discussed above are commonplace in well-funded and well-organized political campaigns (of which there are very few!). During the next few y~ars, though, we should expect to see a number of new applications of computers, applications which fall into the broad category of information retrieval and political "intelligence". Once again, it should be pointed out that many of these new applications will be expensive - perhaps too expensive for the campaign of a single candidate. However, if a national political organization, such as the Democratic National Committee, were to maintain such a computer system, the cost might be bearable when spread among many Senatorial and Congressional candidates, and when amortized over several years of campaigning. Some of the more interesting things that could be done with an information retrieval network include the following. I dentification Dossiers A computer system could be used to keep track of all people who are "interesting" from a political point of view. COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for August, 1971 Thus, when asked, "Who is X?" (e.g., in 1967, Lyndon Johnson might have asked, "Who on earth is Allard Lowenstein?"), the computer would indicate his personal associations, his personal associations and background, and the organizations to which he belonged. Input to the computer could be both extensive and intensive in nature. For example, it might be desirable to provide the computer with lists of all precinc t captains, county chairmen, convention delegates and other minor functionaries. Such lists would be extensive in scope, but would not contain very much information about each individual. On the other hand, it might be desirable to keep very intensive information about the Murray Chotiner types on a continual basis, on the assumption that these key operatives will remain important from one election to the next; their loyalties may change, as has been the case with Henry Kissinger, but they will remain a strong force within the political milieu. Location of Key Operatives Another use of a "dossier" system would be to find out where a politically important figure is at the moment. We might, for example, ask the computer to periodically print a report on the 100 most important political figures, indicating where they are and what they are doing. In addition to keeping abreast of the movement of these people, the computer would be able to indicate those who had suddenly disappeared and gone "underground" (a phenomenon which has already taken place in the 1972 campaign!). Identification of Networks In addition to keeping information abou t individuals, the computer could maintain information about personal networks. For example, such a computer system might have been used to gather information about the Cliff White network, the Allard Lowenstein "Dump Johnson" movement, the Campaign Consultants, Inc. group, etc. Such an information retrieval system would be most useful over a period of time. Since, for example, Murray Chotiner has just recently begun to form a structure for Nixon's 1972 campaign, information about his network could begin to be gathered now. By the summer of 1972, the nature, extent and scope of the network will obviously have solidified, and should be refelcted in the computer's reports. Analysis of Formal and I nformal Power Structures The computer might also be used to maintain information about the history, factions and cliques within national party organs and state party organs. This might include a listing of all the party professionals, local leaders, delegates, major contributors, and so forth - and an indication of their loyalties, preferences, rivalries, etc. Again, this type of information would be most useful when gathered over a period of time. It would be most valuable during the year or two preceding a national convention, during which time most of the maneuvering and manipulating for delegates is taking place. However, it could also be very useful during the campaign, for it would indicate how the state and national party organizations could be used most effectively ... or thwarted most effectively, as the case might be. COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for August, 1971 Recruiting and Talent Search A number of personnel agencies have already discovered that a computer can be used to locate people with specific talents and backgrounds. In the case of a political campaign, it might be desirable to keep lists of recruits, volunteers and workers for the lower echelons of party work, as well as lists of people in advertising, communications, business, entertainment, etc. This latter group might prove useful for endorsements of the candidate, as well as for their own talents and skills. Conclusions In almost all of the areas described above, the most difficult part is that of describing and defining the probiem. For example, the programming of a computerized simulation of an election is a relatively straightforward one; it is the determination of the model that is difficult. Nevertheless, there are some potentially troublesome aspects of computers and computer programming that should be borne in mind if these or any other politically-oriented computer projects are implemented. First, the programs should be written in a high-level language, such as FORTRAN, COBOL, or PL/I. While assembly language programs are likely to be more efficient (and thereby cheaper, in terms of machine time), they are more difficult to write, more difficult to debug, and much more difficult to modify. Also, if any of the programs are to be written by local party volunteers, there is much more likely to be an abundance of available COBOL programmers than of assembly language programmers. Second, the computer programs should be developed for a reasonably "popular" machine, so that they can be moved easily from one installation to another. Because of IBM's overwhelming dominance in the field, an IBM System/360 or System/370 would probably be the best choice, in terms of mo bili ty and flexibility. If the candidate or the party is sure of staying with one computer installation, then Honeywell, Burroughs, GE, Univac and CDC should also be considered. For many of the simpler applications described above, a relatively inexpensive minicomputer, such as the PDP-8, PDP-II, Honeywell-516 or Varian 620-i should be considered; these machines can be purchased for approximately $10,000, though the price would increase somewhat if high-speed printers and other peripheral devices are added. The purchase of off-shift computer time and thirdparty leasing should also be examined. Finally, the feasibility of a time-sharing system should be studied very carefully. That is, it may be desirable to obtain a computer with remote terminals in various strategic locations. Terminals could be maintained in the campaign headquarters, in important state headquarters, on the candidate's campaign plane, and so forth. A timesharing approach, as opposed to the traditional batch approach, would facilitate the immediate entry of information relating to polls, opinion trends, and political "intelligence"; it would also facilitate the immediate retrieval of information at the terminal. If this approach is followed, though, the cost (including the high telecommunications cost) and the problem of security should be examined. There is no doubt that a time-sharing system is much more expensive than a simple batch system; security is a problem because anyone with a terminal can attempt to gain access to the system from a remote location. 0 27 THE JAPANESE C'OMPUTER MARKETCHA,RACTE,RISTICS ADVERSELY AFFECTING U.S. T:RADE INTE'RESTS Part One "In 1934 Japan announced an intention of computerizing herself with her own computers. Since then, Japan has developed, marketed, and installed enough electronic computers to rank third behind the United States and West Germany in total installations. .. Such preeminence has not come by accident." Stephen T. McClellan 108 Sagamore Rd. Tuckahoe, NY. 10707 "Japanese Maker Selling Computers to U.S. Firm."} This bell wether newspaper headline is the culmination of almost a decade of concerted efforts by the Japanese to develop a competitive computer industry. It is only a milepost however. Research, technology, and production have advanced to the point where Japanese computers are internationally competitive. Now the marketing effort is underway. How far have the Japanese advanced? Since 1964, when Japan announced an intention of computerizing herself with her own computers, Japan has developed, marketed, and installed enough electronic computers to rank third behind the United States and West Germany in total installations. Of the 5,601 computers in Japan September 30, 52% (by value) were produced by Japanese manufacturers.2 This is in sharp contrast to the European experience where, except for one country, the domestic computer markets are dominated by U.S. computer manufacturers. Such preeminence has not come by accident. The Japanese government directs and controls the domestic industry through organizations such as the Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI) and the federal Japan Electronic Computer Company (JECC). Computer industry promotion and control takes many forms. Among them are standardization, loans, technological stimulus, import restrictions, tariff barriers, license controls, "buy Japanese policies," and other computer industry stimuli. This study considers only the financial characteristics of the Japanese computer market which serve to make the industry competitive to that of the U.S. Other market aspects are no less significant than the financial ones and often are directly related. They are not emphasized however because the objective of this article is to analyze only the competitive financial factors. Government encouragement and protection, a large part of which are financial, account for most of the rapid growth of Japan's compu ter industry over the past decade. Elsewhere during this time U.S. computer firms were eclipsing fledgling national computer industries, especially in Europe. As early as 1957, Japan's Electronics Industry Promotion Act singled out development of an electronic compu ter industry as a national goal. Financial incentives 28 In his capacity as a computer industry analyst with the U.S. Department of Commerce, Mr. Stephen T. McClellan has authored several government publications on the international and domestic computer markets. He has an M.B.A. degree in finance from George Washington University; his thesis was entitled "The Financial Aspects of Computer Utilization." have included tariff and quota protection, tax benefits, strict control over foreign investment, and preference in the large public computer market for Japanese-made systems. A major factor in this build-up is the Japan Development Bank's loans of over $145 million to the Japan Electronic Computer Corporation (JECC), a rental corporation that finances some 90% of all domestic-built compu ter rentals. 3 Meanwhile, barriers and limitations have effectively reduced foreign competition in Japan. U.S. subsidiaries cannot lease through JECC. Japanese federal and educational institutions cannot buy foreign EDP equipment. All Japanese imports of computer equipment and software are tightly controlled and rigidly restricted by MITI. U.S. officials for the past year have made repeated attempts to get Japan to reduce import restrictions on U.S. computers, thus far withou t success. Despite these restrictions, American firms did export $91 million of computers to Japan in 1969. COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for August, 1971 Government Production and Control: Ministry of I nternational Trade and Industry The Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI) is the foremost governmental body promoting and controlling the domestic computer industry. It is mainly a policy making unit whose objectives in its "administrative guidance" of the computer industry are as follows: 4 1. Rationalize computer production through business tie-ups and joint operations of cooperating manufacturers. 2. Provide JECC with adequate financial backing, including low-cost loans from the Japan Development Bank, Ltd. 3. Raise the quality of computer software and components to the level of international standards by the end of Japan fiscal year 1970 (March 31, 1971). 4. Provide tax benefits to domestic manufacturers (e.g., a 10% tax rebate to manufacturers who repurchase used computers from JECC. The previously mentioned 1957 Electronics Industry Promotion Act gives MITI the significant role of insuring adequate financing of manufacturers. This is done mainly by direct subsidization. Some $28 million has been budgeted to assist the domestic industry in developing a large-scale, high-performance computer by 1971. 5 Additional money for research and development is channeled through the Japan Electronic Industries Development Association (JEIDA). In 1968 MITI spent $l.1 million on an Electro-Technical Laboratory and gave $4.6 million to seven domestic computer manufacturers to develop memory units. In 1969 MITI considered alloting the manufacture of seven peripheral equipment devices to specified JECC members to promote product specialization. 4 Financial aid is also directed to the computer user. MITI annually directs the Japan Development Bank to loan JECC five-year term loans at the subsidized interest rate of 7.5% per annum. The money is then used to finance computer leases to the end-user. Further assistance to individual computer user enterprises by MITI is through 1) establishing mortgage loans for computers, 2) instituting Japan Development Bank loans for the purchase of computers.6 MITI fulfills a parallel function of protecting the domestic industry through restrictive import licensing. Computers cannot be imported into Japan unless the import is approved by MITI. The rather arbitrary licensing system which identifies end-users and requires user justification results in a high degree of protection for the domestic computer industry. To further promote and control the domestic industry, MITI established in 1961 a private rental company under close Governmental support and supervision; JECC. JECC purchases computers manufactured by its stockholders and leases or sells them to end-users. The computers must be developed by the manufacturer's own techniques and marketed under his own brand-name containing over 90% Japanese parts. The computer company pays manufacturers for software as well as for hardware in its purchase prices although maintenance and programming services are perfmmed by manufacturers. Used equipment is resold to original manufacturers. 7 Free to lease or sell to any potential buyer, assisted by MIT I in its efforts to persuade customers to use domestic equipment, and assured of low-cost, long-term domestic financing, JECC enjoys significant advantages over its foreign competitors. In selling to the Government sector (government agencies, universities, research labs, hospitals, and other institutions) JECC has almost a captive market. This Government sector grew faster than the private sector in 1968. U. S. competitors in this market, including IBM, UNIVAC, NCR, Burroughs, Control Data, and others, are at a distinct disadvantage in that they cannot finance computer sales or leases through JECC. The domestic parts requirements effectively eliminate their computers. U.S. peripheral equipment is also precluded from being sold with a Japanese computer system for the same reason. Thus, all U.S. computer equipment, whether imported into or manufactured in Japan, must be financed by the vendor which usually cannot or chooses not to meet the liberal terms offered by JECC. JECC rents or leases computers and peripheral equipment in the following manner: 7 1. Any firm wishing to rent a computer consults with any of the six manufacturers to determine which model is most suitable. The firm then signs a preliminary contract with the appropriate manufacturer specifying the rental cost, delivery date, and the firm's intention to conclude a final rental contract with JECC. 2. JECC concludes a rental agreement with the firm, according to the foregoing agreement. 3. JECC purchases the computer from the manufacturer, usually at a price equal to 45 times the monthly rental fee. 4. The lessee returns the computer when the lease term is over. Finance funds of JECC consist of paid-in capital by the stockholders, revolving lease or rental funds, loans from the Japan Development Bank as well as city, local, trust and mutual banks, and loans from insurance companies and foreign banks (see Table 1). The first foreign loan obtained by JECC was for $3 million from the First National City Table 1 Japan Electronic Computer Company The Japan Electronic Computer Company (JECC) was formed in 1961 as a result of pressure from MITI. Originally the leasing firm was capitalized for $3 million by seven stockholders, all domestic computer manufacturers. Its purpose is to utilize loans from the Japan Development Bank to finance the leasing, outright sales, and installment sales of computers produced by domestic (over 51% Japanese controlled) firms. COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for August, 1971 Stockholders in JECC as of 1968 8 Stockholders Percent Owned Fujitsu Limited Hitachi, Limited Mitsubishi Electric Corporation Nippon Electric Co., Limited Oki Electric Industry Co., Limited Tokyo Shibaura Electric Co., Limited 17.8 19.6 12.8 20.8 14.0 15.0 29 Table 2 -Purchases of Computers and Loans from the Japan Development Bank (JDB 7 Japan Fiscal Year {AQr. I-Mar. 31} 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 Total value of computers purchased by JECC millions} Loans to JECC from JDB ($ millions~ 3.0 9.0 16.3 32.5 57.7 74.6 102.2 125-138 Est. 1.1 2.2 4.2 6.9 15.3 19.4 22.2 22.2 Est. {~ Bank, New York in 1967 (see Table 2). Under JECC's leasing system, 1/45 of the direct sales price of the computer is charged as the monthly rental fee in accordance with a contract which runs for a minimum of 15 months. If at the end of this term the user does not renew the contract the manufacturer is under obligation to buy the computer back, paying JECCan amount equivalent to the value remaining on the books. A 10% tax rebate is awarded to a manufacturer who repurchases a cOI!1puter from JEce. Now that third generation computers are in full use, however, many second generation computers are being replaced and traded-in. Herein stems one of JECC's most difficult financial problems. Increased funds are now necessary to finance those trade-ins. In 1968 a reserve fund was established to cover any losses incurred through repurchase of used computers. The funds were obtained by holding 10% of the manufacturer's profit on computers sold to JECC for lease, and when a repurchase loss was incurred it was compensated for from this reserve. 9 However, recently JEee, due to the severe shortage of funds, stopped repurchasing used computers altogether and thus the manufacturer now must do the repurchasing directly. JECC's large increase in demand for funds is due also to the increased volume of business it conducts. Being pressed to procure new funds for present and long range increases in computer leasing, the organization has agreed with the French Government to supply know-how and technology for large-scale computer production in exchange for French loans to buoy up the sagging JECC finances. 10 Up to this time MITI allowed JECC to borrow funds abroad only once even though JECC desired to do some borrowing in the Eurodollar market. A further step to alleviate JECC's shortage of funds is a legislative act to come up before the National Diet in the next session. This bill calls for an easier credit system for computer users and should stimulate increased domestic usage of Japanese computers.ll Japanese corporations are very heavily debt financed. Sometimes up to 80-90% of capital is derived through debt financing. Domestic banks aid this practice by granting loans on a liberal basis, a spirit of comradeship between executives being a major factor. Such balance sheets suffer when interest rates rise. Loans become more expensive and perhaps prohibitive for manufacturers and users. The Government and the Japan Development Bank aid the manufacturers; now a new act will serve to aid users. NUMBLES NUMBER PUZZLES FOR NIMBLE MINDS -AND COMPUTERS Neil Macdonald Assistant Editor Computers and Automation A "numble" is an arithmetical problem in which: digits have been replaced by capital letters; and there are two messages, one which can be read right away and a second one in the digit cipher. The problem is to solve for the digits. Each capital letter in the arithmetical problem stands for just one digit 0 to 9. A digit may be represented by more than one letter. The second message, which is expressed in numerical digits, is to be translated (using the same key) into letters so that it may be read; but the spelling uses puns or is otherwise irregular, to discourage cryptanalytic methods of deciphering. We invite our readers to send us solutions, together with human programs or computer programs, which will produce the solutions. This month's Numble was contributed by: Stuart Freudberg Newton High School Newton. Mass. NUMBLE 718 EYE S + ARE THE BFHM VLDT AF HL AA + A T V A S MY B L E M 944908 A MBA S SAD 0 R S Solution to Numble 717 In Numble 717 in the June issue, the digits 0 through 9 are represented by letters as follows: L=O S= 1 H=2 A,I = 3 0=4 W=5 B,D,R= 6 E=7 T=8 N=9 The message is: Those who will not see are also blind. Our thanks to the following individuals for submitting their solutions - to Numble 716: Marijoe Bestgen, Shawnee Mission, Kans.; Mary E. Brindamour, West Lynn, Mass.; A. Sanford Brown, Dallas, Texas; Gordon and Debra Bruno, Cliffside Park, N.J.; Warren H. Buell, Los Angeles, Calif.; Twite S. Emerick, Harrisburg, Pa.; T. P. Finn, Indianapolis, Ind.; D. F. Martin, Los Angeles, Calif.; Abraham Schwartz, Jamaica, N.Y.; Harold L. Smith, Thomson, Ga.; C. P. T. Wong, West Vancouver, Canada; and David P. Zerbe, Reading, Pa. - to Numble 715: Harold L. Smith, Thomson, Ga. (Part 2 and Footnotes: in the next issue) 30 COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for August, 1971 A SYSTEMS APPROACH TO JOB ,HUNTING "The model proposed here provides those who are now seeking or will seek a new position, with a potential basis for their own planning. " Thomas V. Sobczak Waldes Kohinoor, Inc. 47-16 Austel Pl. Long Island City, N. Y. 11101 What determines a good job? Challenge, salary, security, satisfaction, nearness to home or anyone of a hundred other factors! How does an individual know a job is suited to him and he to it? The "goodness" of a job is up to the individual doing it. If he likes his work and is reasonably treated, any job can be good. But, if an individual wants "the job" - the one job he dreams of - he will seek it scientifically, logically, and with a dedicated self interest in obtaining and being part of it. Locating and securing the perfect job involves detailed self-evaluation and planning. Unfortunately, the majority of Thomas V. Sobczak is Manager, Systems and Electronic Data Processing, Waldes Kohinoor, Inc., Long Island City, New York, N.Y. 11101. He graduated from St. John's University with a B.A. and completed M.B.A. studies at Hofstra University. He teaches in the Systems and Programming Institute at Hofstra University. He is a member of the National Defense Executive Reserve of the U.S. Department of Commerce. COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for August, 1971 professional job-hunters are like their less educated counterparts in the labor community. They make the jump out-ofthe-frying-pan into a self-imposed fire with little, if any, reflection on the magnitude of the step. Few, if any, can honestly say they have individually been able to establish a policy by which to work and a goal to work for. Fewer still are working by the policy, toward the goal they have established. All seek the good life or some impossible dream without any realistic intention of working toward it. Our inertia encourages us to let intermediate opportunities - steps toward our goal - pass us by. Trapped by our sloth we become finger pointers, sour grapes; or, worse, we become enamoured with the fancy that "my day will come", malcontent in the world we made for ourselves. The model proposed here provides those who are now seeking or will seek a new position, with a potential basis for their own planning. At first glance, the operations and decisions seem insultingly simple. In fact, they are timeconsuming, soul-searching periods of self evaluation and analyses. Many subroutines have been omitted: they are personal and private to each of us. Whether we admit to them or not, we know them. Whether we consider them or not, they will rise up to haunt us, a spectre of the reality we try to hide. If you follow the steps honestly, with sincerity of purpose, the results will be rewarding. You will have narrowed your field to (1) those jobs where you have the greatest chance to succeed, and to (2) those jobs which hold the greatest personal satisfaction for your "self." Can there be a better combination? You and your potential employer will complement each other. At your interview you will know that you fit. You will not have to tell half truths or inflate past experiences. You should not have to accept a job that sounds only partially challenging. Materially, you will not be wasting your time taking interviews only to discover you are not interested in the type of work offered. 31 Prologue I. To the Editor from Thomas V. Sobczak Your comments on page 6 of the May 1971 issue ["How an unemployed computer professional might start his own business, and earn a reasonable income as his own employer" 1 interested and intrigued me. I should like to offer an article for the data processing professional who does not want to work for himself - there are some! This article was offered and accepted twice in 1967. It has never been published. In the first case, Magazine E after it had accepted the article, returned it because it slighted their employment agency advertisers by suggesting a professional could locate a position on his own rather than as a piece of merchandise on the selling block. The second acceptance was by Magazine T. They rewrote the article from the viewpoint of employment counselor, and added names of their advertisers as choices to do the required planning and resume generations. I did not want my name associated with the article; so it was not published. They later did a piece on employment agencies. If you think those professionals who do not want to work ·for themselves whatever the reason would benefit from the article, use it. If you don't think it worthwhile, return it please. II. To TVS from the Editor Thank you for your interesting letter and the copy of your article "A Systems Approach to Job Hunting". I like it, and I think it may well fit into "Computers and Automation" - and of course we shall publish it (if we accept it) without changing the tone or the sense of what is being said. What an interesting light you throw on the two magazines that you mention! One question: do you want to change anything in it in view of the fact that now in 1971 there is an employer's market and not an employee's market? It is not easy to get jobs. III. To the Editor from TVS In response to your question concerning a change in the article I submitted, based on the fact that in 1971 there is an employer's market not an employee's market and it is not easy to get jobs: No. I do not feel a change is necessary for several reasons. First, proper planning in seeking a position as outlined in the article will nullify the effect of the employer's market. Contrary to popular opinion, there are many jobs available. The jobs that are available to people, are available to those people who are qualified. What we have been seeing The Model Event A-I 32 Title lately, because of the rapid reorganization in various sectors of the economy is people coming out of one job and not determining what they were suited to do. In place of planning you have mob response. You have many unqualified people applying for the same job and giving the impression that the employer has the upper hand. When in actual reality the people applying, for the most part, are not qualified for the position they apply for. As an example, my organization recently wanted to hire a programmer. We went to several agencies and put ads in the newspaper. The resultant influx of people was horrifying. Nine out of ten were not qualified for the job that we offered. They were applying because they didn't have jobs. The personnel department thought we had a tremendous response but to the Data Pwcessing Manager the response was quite poor because in actuality my choice was between two and three people not thirty as the personnel department would have supposed. As to the ease of obtaining a position, this depends quite seriously on the diligence and dedication that the individual who is seeking the position, puts into his search. As an example, just in the New York City area, the Federal, State and City Government; the Port of New York Authority; the New York Transportation System; the Metropolitan Transit Authority; the Federal Aviation Agen.cy and several others in the Civil Service field -- are hiring. There are books which indicate which corporations exist in the City by borough and what they do. An individual who took the time to scan this type of information should be able to pick out one or two companies. Using myself as an example, in 1969 the company that I worked for in East Rockaway, Long Island, had determined that they were moving to Attleboro, Mass. Having family ties and responsibilities in the area, I elected not to move. After carefully thinking what I was willing to do in the way of employment and what salary I wanted in order to do it, I went to the Long Island Association and purchased for seventeen dollars, a book that listed all the companies on Long I sland. Going through the book I picked out the companies where I thought I could be useful. Of 34 letters sent out, 22 replied, asking me to come in for an interview. I received seven job offers from the twenty-two replies. The job I presently hold did not occur this way. It occurred through personal contact. A peer operating a data center told me of a company that was thinking of a new installation. I joined the company and brought about the installation. I am now developing the data processing capabilities of the company. In other words, the system described in the article works. It is totally divorced from how many jobs there are. There are always jobs for people who go about looking for jobs in the right way. This is the only point that I'm trying to get across. Determine employment goal A-3 Can the goal be reasonably attained? Comments Decision to leave Perhaps the best possible advice is to stop at this point and reflect. A decision to leave should be based on a concrete foundation (examples: no advancement or raise over a long period; supervisory management is top heavy and you cannot advance ).¥any people choose to move because the boss is moody and the mutual collision of moods hurts their pride, or Jack moved and got more money, or anyone of many other trivial things. After you decide to leave, don't fall into the trap of moving to the situation with only the names being new. Examine your past experiences; you should be able to determine the type of task which most interested you. As a result of your self-examination, choose a goal; it provides a target to shoot for. A-2 Be careful not to become enamoured with 'a one-shot success (for example, publishing one paper successfully doesn't make you a writer). Review your goal against reality. Talk it out with your wife or girl friend, parent, or some friend or associate who can be more objective than you in relation to the goal you have chosen. COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for August, 1971 r9 o o o ;: r "'\J C -I m ;;0 UI III :s a.. l> c (1 ~(5 Z Q l> c to ~ ~ -0 ~ B1 Review ~sourcesof U ./IEmployment B2 Choose Potential Sources e If' 0;) Stop D3 Arrange Interview ~ No ~ ~ 04 Interview Are your Objectives Understated (.) (.) A Systems Approach to Job Hunting A-4 A-5 A-6 List immediate job objectives This is the first plateau in your quest. You must now decide how to go from where you are now to the realization of your goals. Take the trouble to list all your thoughts, then do as Juran suggests in "Managerial Breakthrough", pick out the select few objectives from the trivial many. B-1 Review sources of employment B-2 Choose potential sources After you've listed a group of po ten tial sources, research them. If you know about potential workplaces in advance, you can better determine where you want to work in them. B-3 Are sources best suited Do not be impressed by a to your objectives? company's facade or the stability of its work levels or any of the unimportant things that can attract you. Match the company's ability to help you attain your objectives to the objectives you have listed. Choose only those companies, as prime sources, which further the attainment of your objectives. B-4 Draft covering letter This is the secon d pIa tea u. Layout your experience in a tabular form. Prune the data to a reasonable size. I recommend the Encyclopedia Brittanica Research Service publication on Resumes as an excellent guide. Each company is different. The selling points which will verbally portray your image are different. So do not use a form type covering letter. Address your letter to someone. Gear it to sell the benefits you have to offer. Companies receive tens to hundreds of applications weekly. Think of the welcome change from "I did xxx" to "you can benefit from my employment by xxx". The draft of the covering letter should be a microcosm of your resume, always positive, always selling, bu t never vain, pre ten tious, or pushy. B-5 Does the covering letter match your resume Does your resume sell A resume should be a tool your objective? helping you to attain part of and the distance to your goal. If it B-6 Submit your covering This is your third plateau. letters and resumes Now you can relax for a while. Most companies take two to four weeks to reply. This gives them time to pass your resume to interested parties. Does experience promote your objectives? Examine your list of objectives against your experience. Make sure you can honestly fulfill the responsibilities you are determined to accept. It is far better to take an educational detour to gain skills than to be branded a fraud and "incompetent." If your experience can't support your objectives, go back to your list of immediate job objectives and review them. Reflect on how much you cheat yourself if you don't really determine what your objectives should be. Are your immediate objectives and your goal compatible? Be careful that you are not making your objectives too wide. Poorly defined objectives tend to blur the target goal. Are you sure the objectives are suited to the goal? Maybe one or the other should be modified. To add some time data, we are now at about decision plus five days. A-7 A-8 A-9 Draft resume Does honest modification sell your objectives? doesn't serve this purpose, it has no utility. Discard it and try again. If you still can't succee d review your objectives. Don't get carried away by the thought of more money. Depending on the industry, 5-10% is average. In some fields the need allows for higher increases; yet I tend to feel disturbed about the offer of a higher salary than I think I'm worth. Eventually the need will cease; will my job security and potential advancement cease with it? There are several guides to executive compensation which one can use to develop a feel for what he is worth to a given industry. Use them. 34 Make sure your letter doesn't contradict your resume. Do not oversell in the letter what you cannot prove in the resume. We are now at about decision plus 15 days. B-7 Receive and review responses Read each response carefully but don't be scrupulous. B-8 Are responses favorable? If responses are favorable, go to line "D." If responses are unfavorable, go to line "C." C-l Is your asking salary compatible with industry? We are now at about decision plus nine days. A-lO Determine a reasonable salary This could be accomplished in parallel to the "A" series but in a more general way. By waiting until you have your "self' aligned, you stand a much better chance of making sharper choices concerning your sources of employment. Back at A-lO I suggested you not get carried away with the thought of more money. The negative responses are a test. Typically if you have the experience to meet a need a potential employer has, his main objection will be your asking price. COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for August, 1971 C-2 Is your present salary equal to or greater than industry level? If you are compatible with industry salary-wise, go back and review your resume. Maybe you undersold yourself. If you are above the industry level for your skills, move on to C-3. If you are determined to either maintain your present salary or to get an increase, then stop. It is useless to try to get a better paying job while bucking industry trends. If you will take a salary cut, return to A-IO. you did not receive an offer, go to line "E." D-S Did you accept? If you accepted an offer, "Congratulations"; if not, why not? Review your objectives and resume; see 'if you can zero in much closer on what you want. C-3 Are you willing to take a salary cut? E-I If you asked for more than they were willing to pay, return to A-I 0 and determine if you were right. If in good conscience you think you are right, stick to it. You wouldn't have been happy with less money. D-I Are your objectives reasonable to potential employers? E-2 Was the experience you offered reasonable? E-3 Are you willing to accept less? D-2 D-3 You may be called in to an interview for a position only to find that the company has something other than what you requested in mind. If the response inviting you to the interview doesn't say specifically what position you will be interviewed for, define the position when you call to make the appointment. If the position is outside your objectives, you must decide how important your objectives and goal really are. Are you prepared to interview? At this point the many unlisted subroutines come into place. Don't waste your time and the potential employer's time if you have really decided but won't admit that you: 1. Can't relocate. 2. Do not like travel from suburbs to the city. 3. Wife doesn't like you out late but the job requires it. 4. etc. If you can't interview honestly, do not interview at all. In fact, determine if you should be interviewing and looking at all. You can't really judge this fact but you will know if you were really far off base. If you could feel uncomfortable, go back to your objectives and state them in perspective to reality and start again. You have wasted your time learning a lesson about over-selling. If you are not willing to accept less and don't have the qualifications, stop wasting your time. If you are willing to accept a lesser job or salary, return to the "A" line at the appropriate spot and start over. The cycle described herein may have to be repeated four to six times before you lock on to your target. It requires a great deal of fortitude an~ courage to stick to your guns even if it means losing some of the status you have grown accustomed to attributing to yourself. In all, this process should take six to eight weeks. If you succeed in less time, you can consider yourself more honest than most. If it takes more than eight weeks of concentrated effort, you have a problem somewhere - one you are not admitting to. Arrange the interview Make the time convenient to both parties. Try not to rush the interview so you have time to prepare. Determine what specifics the interviewer wants to see. D-4 Interview D-S Did your resume sell your objectives? Be normal. Act as you always act. Remember if you start playing a role at the interview, you will be force d to live it during your employment. Be honest. Tell what you did and why. Bring samples of your work. Don't be afraid to say "I don't know." Don't try to second-guess so as to please. Remember, half truths or exaggerations can and will hurt later on. After the first interview, you have objective data for insight into your campaign. If the interviewer had objectives for you other than those you suggested, review your resume; possibly it does not say what you wanted it to. D-6 Are your objectives still as listed in A 4? Based on your interview you can determine if your objectives are reasonable to someone on the other side of the fence. You may wish to modify them. D-7 Was the requested salary acceptable? Did you obtain an offer? If you received an offer and accepted, go on to D-S. If COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for August, 1971 Summary We spend more than thirty percent of our day on the job. It can be challenging or dull, interesting or boring; that is entirely up to the individual. Remember: 1. Do not go job hunting until you know your target. 2. Know your goals, establish your objectives, and most of all, be confident of your decisions. 3. Be honest with yourself. Brass and bravado are fine, but they have no place in deciding an important part of your future. 4. If you are not up to the level you feel you should be or which employers expect, work at it, Liars and cheats eventually are trapped by the webs they weave. 5. Decide what you want to do and do not accept less, but be absolutely sure your talents are not overstated. 6. Let the work, not the salary, guide your choice. No amount of money is worth the frustration that mediocre jobs can cause. 7. Use logic, not emotion. Pomp and circumstance often hide a multitude of sins. In summary, remember, only you can be hurt by a poor choice. So, count to ten before you speak; take a day to decide. Be sure! Be careful! Be sincere! In the end you, most assuredly, will be satisfied. 0 35 SKEPTICISM OF OFFICIAL GOVERNMENT EXPLANATIONS 2. From the Editor From: James D. White 35 Castle Rock Drive Mill Valley, Calif. 94941 It seems to me that there are two common human attitudes towards new or upsetting or revolutionary information. In forwarding the enclosed order for back issues of "Computers and Automation," I am unable to resist indicating in some way my very great appreciation for the series of articles your magazine has been publishing on the assassinations. In my opinion it is tragic that less specialized publications, most of which have a clear duty in this area, exhibit little of your interest in getting at the truth. The January issue, with its reprint of your 1959 article "Opposition to New Ideas," raises a question which has long bothered me and which I should like to discuss briefly. This is the uncanny parallelism in the treatment both of Unidentified Flying Objects (UFOs), and the assassinations. Let me explain briefly. During World War II, I concluded tentatively that the so-called Foo Fighters probably were some sort of manifestation along the line of what later was generally called UFOs. This impression was strengthened during the exhibitions over the Baltic immediately after the war, so that when the Arnold sightings in 1947 saturated the public with the UFO concept and the subsequent waves of sightings kept it in the public consciousness, I was less skeptical than most simply because the UFO was not a new idea and I therefore was not as apprehensive about it as most people were. The more I studied the question, the more apparent it became that this very serious matter was being met largely by official denials, lies, obfuscations and, at times, outright fakery. And by nothing else. ( Then came the assassination of President John F. Kennedy in Dallas, Texas, on November 22, 1963. Again, a matter of the utmost importance. And what was the response? Exactly the same. More apparent lies, the introduction of masses of confusing and often conflicting details, the barrage of ridicule directed against those trying to get at the facts, and the insistence -- backed up almost universally by the media, that any departure from the official story represents the imaginings of kooks or the self-serving of charlatans. Almost immediately after the JFK assassination, I had the strong impression not only tha~ the methods were the same, the tactics and strategy identical, but that many of the same people were carrying them out. This has persi sted, and I rai se seriously the qtl.estion of whether this parallelism is more than coincidental, as it must be to a great extent. I suggest it as a possible area of inquiry and analysis. I assume you also have noticed an incidental paralleli sm - the high incidence of UFO buffs who exhibit the same skepticism toward official explanations of the assassinations. In this. connection, I have taken the liberty of copying and enclosing a couple of pages_ f~om the Bulletin of the Aerial Phenomena Research Organization of Tucson, Arizona. You will note on the second page that they are planning a computer treatment of their accumulation of data. It occurred -to me that if you did not know about th{s it might have some interest for you. APRO is the oldest and most solid of the UFO inquiry groups. I thank you again for your admirable enterprise, and send every good wish. 36 The more common human attitude is to deny the new information. This seems to be the more normal human behavior. After all, if the information is upsetting, it might not be true -- and if it is not true, one does not have to do anything about it. To do nothing is always the easiest course, especially for persons in subordinate positions because any decision that they might make about something new, will clearly have to be reviewed by a superior. After all, "don't stick your neck out." The less common human attitude is to accept the new information either (1) tentatively (like a scientist), waiting to hear more or learn more, or (2) completely and sometimes gullibly. For example, Dr. Linus Pauling, Professor of chemistry at Stanford University, twice a Nobel prize winner, has recently put forward the proposition that taking large quantities of vitamin C will greatly reduce the prevalence of the common cold. A great many persons are trying out this idea. I have tried it; so far it clearly increases my health and well being. As for the American Medical Association, I have noticed no statement from them abeut Dr. Pauling's proposition; I would expect them to say nothing and do nothing about the idea -- and if possible dissuade anybody else from doing anything about the idea -- because the idea did not originate with a medical doctor who is a member of the AMA. If it is true that normal human behavior about a new idea is to deny it, then it is not usually necessary to assume a conspiracy to prevent the spreading of that new idea. As a matter of fact the scientific attitude (that a surprising new idea should be carefully investigated and tested) is rather a recent attitude for human beings, when we look back on human history over the centuries. We have been doing a lot of thinking about the extension of the computer field, which is necessary as a result of the proposition that: Computer professionals are, in reality, information engineers, and therefore they are responsible for the truth of the information and data going into the computer as well as the truth of the deductions that come out. "Computers and Automation" does not need to agitate much in the areas of information where society, business, government, industry, the universities, etc., arl agree about the kind of data that should go into a computer system -- the noncontroversial information like payroll data, inventory data, wind tunnel measurements, etc. The interests of all parties agree: they all want correct data to go into the system. But "Computers and Automation" does have to agitate about the areas where there is controversy. Here we have to help orient computer professionals to the facts of life, society, and. the world, including those facts which establi s-hments are busily suppressing, or trying to suppress. Censorship is wrong. Suppression of information is wrong. Lying is wrong. And C&A has a job to do -- find out the correct information and publish it. COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for August, 1971 Jim Garrison, District Attorney, Orleans Parish vs. The Federal Governm:ent "Why did Jim Garrison involve himself in the Clay Sha w prosecution which has brought him nothing but grief, frustration, and heartache?" Bernard Fensterwald, Attorney Executive Director National Committee to Investigate Assassinations 927 15th St., N. W. Washington, D. C. 20005 In 1961, 1965, and again in 1969 the citizens of Orleans Parish, Louisiana, elected as their District Attorney a local lawyer whom, it seems fair to assume in view of the election returns, they considered capable, honest, and well qualified for the office. In fact, he was the first District Attorney in modern times in New Orleans to be elected to a third term. In his capacity as chief prosecutor he had the duty and obligation to assist in the indictment of those persons he suspected of having committed crimes in the jurisdiction and, in the case of those indicted, to prosecute them to the full extent of the law. The man selected to serve three successive four year terms for the Parish was Jim Garrison. During his second term as District Attorney he was subjected to one of the most vicious character assassinations the Federal government in Washington has ever effected on any local official to date. Garrison's "folly" consisted primarily in his refusal to accept the conclusions of a non-judicial federal body chosen, not by the citizens of the nation, but by one man, ex-President Lyndon B. Johnson of the United States. That body was the Warren Commission which investigated the assassination of President John F. Kennedy. Artillery Spotter Plane Pilot Before examining the background and nature of this character assassination, it might be well to relate some of the background and nature of the victim. Ealing Carrouthers Garrison (he changed his name to Jim after World War II) was born in Denison, Iowa, on November 20, 1921. He grew up and received his early education in Chicago, where his mother had moved after she divorced his father in 1924. During World War II, Garrison had a long, dangerous, and distinguished career as an artillery spotter plane pilot in the European Theatre, where he flew many missions in an unarme'd plane over the German lines. After the war he remained in the Army Reserve, and he was called up briefly for active duty during the Korean War. He was returned to inactive duty in the Reserve when he was found both physically and psychologically unsuited for combat duty. He received psychiatric care both during and after his Korean War service, and with apparent favorable results,for as late as 1969 he still held an Army Reserve Commission as a Lieutenant Colonel. COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for August, 1971 1961: Elected District Attorney His association with New Orleans and the law began when he attended Tulane Law School. After a short period of service with the Federal Bureau of Investigation, he became city attorney and then assistant district attorney for Orleans Parish, which encompasses most of urban New Orleans. In 1961, to the surprise of most of the local politicians, he was elected District Attorney. The years since his first election have been stormy ones. He drove the gamblers and the B-girls from Bourbon Street; he bitterly attacked the police for their complacency toward crime; and in 1962 he became locked in abattle with all eight of the city's Criminal Court Judges because of their refusal to approve funds which he had requested for an indepth investigation of crime in New Orleans. The judges charged him with defamation of character and criminal libel and fined him $1,000, but on appeal the U.S. Supreme Court overturned the conviction in a milestone decision outlining the citizen's right to criticize public officials. Popularity Although Garrison has not endeared himself to the local "powers that be," through the years he has gained considerable popularity with the citizens of Orleans Parish, who are, after all, the people who pay his salary and the ones whose interests he protects and represents. He cleaned up the French Quarter, but not to the point of ruining it from a fun standpoint, and destroying its attractiveness to conventioneers. He chased the gamblers across the river into Jefferson Parish. He championed civil liberties in a city with deep rooted Southern prejudices, and he appointed a Negro assistant District Attorney. In late 1964, he won reelection over the strong opposition of the local political establishment. In the next few years, his career became less controversial, and, everything being equal, he could have looked forward to more years as D.A., perhaps to a judgeship, or returning to the private practice of law. For a reasonably young attorney, Jim Garri son seemed to have "had it made. ,. The Clay Shaw Case Why, then, did he involve himself in the Clay Shaw prosecution which has brought him nothing but grief, frustration, and heartache? 37 It has been suggested by some people that the Shaw case has been a figment of Garrison's imagination, purposely conceived in late 1966 and promoted because of his political ambitions. In the, light of how the case developed, this theory seems to have perhaps some surface plausibility; but Garrison, as an experienced prosecutor with a remarkably successful record of convictions behind him, must have knnwn the risks involved in putting his whole career on the line in a single case, a case with very little merit. As he himself put it in an October, 1966, interview by Playboy Magazine: I was perfectly aware that I might have signed my political death warrant the moment I launched this case -- but I couldn't care less as long as I can shed some light on John Kennedy's assassination. New Orleans: Where Lee Harvey Oswald Resided There were other factors which led to Garrison's fateful decision. Popular belief to the contrary, his interest in the assassination as a prosecutor began, not in 1966, but in 1963. In fact it began on the day John Kennedy was killed. Garrison had been a great admirer of JFK and was terribly distraught by his murder. He also happened 'to be the District Attorney in the city in which Lee Harvey Oswald had grown up and in which he had resided until shortly before the assassination. It occurred to Garrison, that, if the assassination were the result of a conspiracy, as was the first reaction of many people, it would not be beyond the realm of possibility -- indeed probability -- that the roots of the conspiracy might lie in New Orleans. Moreover, immediately after the assassination, Herman Kohlman, one of his assistant District Attorneys, received a tip from Jack Martin, a local investigator with intelligence connections, suggesting that they should pick up and question a certain David Ferrie in connection with the murder. David Ferrie David Ferrie was well known to both Kohlman and Garrison; he was even better known to the New Orleans police as a brilliant ex-Eastern Airlines pilot, a notorious homo-sexual, a career researcher, a Civil Air Patrol organizer, a mystic, and interestingly enough, a man who had very active contacts with both the Central Intelligence Agency and the Mafia. In fact, at the exact time of the assassination he was sitting in a New Orleans courtroom with Carlos Marcello, the alleged New Orleans underworld chieftain. Ferrie was acting as an investigator for Marcello's defense attorney. Marcello, who was being tried for violation of the federal deportation laws, won a smashing legal victory on the very day, November 22, 1963, when Kennedy was shot. Right after court adjourned, Ferrie rushed out and picked up two young "roommates," Alvin Beauboeuf and Melvin' Coffey, and headed for Texas via auto. Later, when questioned about the trip, Ferrie at first said that they were going duck hunting; then, subsequently, he said they were going ice-skating; in fact, he had done neither. The threesome had driven to Houston and then to Galveston where Ferrie had spent several hours waiting next to a pay telephone for reasons at this time unknown. On the afternoon and evening of November 24th, the threesome drove back to New Orleans, after which Ferrie proceeded alone to Hammond, Louisiana (the hometown of Clay Shaw), and back to New Orleans on Monday, November 25. At this point he was arrested and 38 questioned by the D.A. and his staff, and then turned over to FBI agents who questioned him briefly and released him. After pursuing several other seemingly fruitless leads, Garrison closed his books on the case, satisfied that he had done his part in attempting to unravel the mysteries of the Kennedy murder. Visit With Senator Russell Long For the next three years, as far as Garrison was concerned, the case remained closed. Many others, however, had doubts, and the case would not stay buried. Here in his own words is a description of Garrison's re-entry into the case in November, 1966: Until ~then) I had complete faith in the Warren Report ... But then ... I visited New York City with Senator Russell Long; and when the subject of the assassination came up, (Long) expressed grave doubts about the Warren Commission's conclusion that Lee Harvey Oswald was the lone assassin. Now, this disturbed me, because here was the Majority Whip of the U.S. Senate speaking, not some pUblicity hound with an ideological axe to grind; and if at this late juncture he still entertained serious reservations about the Commission's determinations, maybe there was more to the assassination than met the eye. So I began reading every book and magazine article on the assassination I could get my hands on -- my tombstone may be inscribed "Curiosity Killed the D.A." -- and I found my own doubts growing. Finally, I put aside all other business and started to wade through the Warren Commission's own 26 volumes of supportive evidence and testimony. That was the clincher. It's impossible for anyone possessed of reasonable objectivity and a fair degree of intelligence to read those 26 volumes and not reach the conclusion that the Warren Commission was wrong in everyone of its major conclusions pertaining to the assassination. For me, that was the end of innocence ... Weisberg and Mark Lane sparked my general doubts about the assassinatjon; but more importantly, they led me into specific areas of inquiry. After I realized that something was seriously wrong, I had no alternative but to face the fact that Oswald had arrived in Dallas only a short time before the assassination and that prior to that time he had lived in New Orleans for over six months. I became curious about what this alleged assassin was doing while under my jurisdiction, and my staff began an investigation of Oswald's activities and contacts in the New Orleans area. We interviewed people the Warren Commission had never questioned; and a whole new world began opening up. As I studied Oswald's movements in Dallas, my mind turned back to thp. aftermath of the.assassination in 1963, when my office questioned three men -- David Ferrie, Alvin Beauboeuf, and Melvin Coffey -on suspicion of being involved in the assassination. I began to wonder if we hadn't ~;~­ missed these three men too lightly, and we reopened our inv~stigation into their activities. Following leads furnished by critics of the Warren Report, Garrison and his staff began to hit pay dirt immediately. In addition to Ferrie, Beauboeuf, and Coffey, they began to look into the activities of Oswald's Marine buddy, Kerry Thornley, and his New Orleans lawyer, Dean Andrews. They COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for August, 1971 looked, too, for the mysLerious Clay Bertrand. They sought and found solid leads to link Ferrie, Oswald, and Ruby. They found footprints leading toward the two Cuban factions, anti-Castro and pro-Castro. Secrecy Again contiary to current popular belief, Garrison proceeded with his invest~gation in absolute secrecy. He realized full well its importance and its sensitivity. His realization was strengthened when it became clear that he was crossing the paths of the CIA, the FBI, the Warren Commission and possibly others. He began quietly to line up support for his investigation in the community. A group, known as Truth or Consequences, was formed among local business and professional men, and they lent much moral and some financial support to the probe. Failure of Secrecy As the investigation widened and began to produce results, it became too big a story to keep under cover, and it was finally broken by Rosemary James, a local reporter, in mid February of 1967. Then things really began to happen. Garrison had overnight become the subject of worldwide attention ... including the attention of the federal government. Unwisely, Garrison gave a series of press interviews, and answered questions with speculation when he did not have the hard facts. Much of this speculation dealt with the ultimate force or forces he suspected might have been behind the assassination. Mention was m~de of various federal agencies, the "military-industrial complex," Cubans, "right wing extremists," and others. These sensational charges coming from a responsible official whetted the American public's well known appetite for a conspir,acy angle. Meanwhile, Garrison's investigation was progressing rapidly. It was his intention to arrest David Ferrie and to charge him with conspiring with Lee Harvey Oswald, "Clay Bertrand" (an alias), and others to kill John F. Kennedy. Several days before the planned arrest, Ferrie actually came to Garrison, sought and received physical protection from unspecified persons. He seemed terrified, but after several days of protective custody, and before Garrison was ready to formally charge him, Ferrie returned to his apartment. Within 72 hours he was dead. The coroner's verdict was that Ferrie died of natural causes, i.e., a heart attack. Whether it was a natural death or not may never be known, but it is clear that the timing of Ferrie's demise did little to decrease Garrison's suspicions of conspiracy. Warning In retrospect, this turn of events should have been a warning to Garrison to take a long hard look before proceeding further. As matters stood at that time, the principal suspects (Oswald, Ferrie, and Ruby) were all dead; the identity of the other suspect, "Clay Bertrand", had not yet been established. But, Garrison had a number of witnesses at that time who claimed that they could and would identify Clay Shaw as the mysterious "Clay Bertrand." The prosecutor was particularly counting on Perry Russo and Dean Andrews. If discretion had been the better part of valor, Garrison would have gone no further with the prosecution of the case, at least at that time. After COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for August, 1971 all he was openly challenging the integrity of the whole Federal Establishment, including Chief Justice Warren, J. Edgar Hoover, members of the Warren Commission, the White House, and the Kennedy Clan. He was a lone, local prosecutor, with local jurisdiction, little money, and a tiny staff. Delay Why he proceeded, no cne except Garrison really knows, but proceed he did. He ordered Shaw arrested, and his Rubicon had been crossed with no turning back. He would either win, or he would be destroyed by the federal government. The tactic chosen to frustrate Garrison's prosecution was delay. Delay was needed to blacken Garrison's reputation, undermine his effectiveness as a prosecutor, and erode the underpinnings of his case. Part of the delay that ensued was, of course, inherent in normal criminal procedures. Shaw's lawyers filed several motions even before the pre-trial hearing. Garrison, of course, was pushing for a speedy trial at every turn. Beginning in September 1967, Shaw's lawyers filed motions for delays of the trial. These were granted . Finally, when it became evident that no further delay could be secured through the local courts, the defense forces turned to their friendly ally and advisor, the federal government. They filed a petition in the Federal District Court in New Orleans, asking it to rule (1) that the Warren Commission Report is binding upon all courts in the United States, and (2) that all further prosecution of Clay Shaw be enjoined. These requests were preposterous from a legal standpoint; local law enforcement would collapse if federal courts could enjoin local prosecutors from bringing malefactors to trial. However, this did not prevent Federal District Judge Frederick J. R. Heebe from issuing a restraining order. A further hearing by a three-judge Federal panel resulted in the denial of both Shaw's requested rulings, but the court permitted the injunction against Garrison to stand pending an appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court, thus delaying the trial into 1969. Eventually the highest court agreed unanimouslY that Garrison had every legal right to bring Shaw to trial. The trial finally got under way almost two years after Shaw's arrest. Help to Clay Shaw The federal government made good use of the two year delay in its effort to blacken Garrison's name and wreck his case. Federal officials openly and blatantly went out of their way to help Shaw and his lawyers, despite the fact that the United States officially had no role in the Shaw Case. Foremost among these members of the federal government to aid Clay Shaw were then Attorney General Ramsey Clark, highest legal officer, and Chief Justice Earl Warren. highest ranking judicial officer. Ramsey Clark Ramsey Clark's nomination as Attorney General came up before the Senate Judiciary Committee on March 22, 1967, the same day that Shaw was officially charged with conspiracy in New Orleans. Immediately upon hearing of Shaw's arrest, and before his confirmation by the full Senate, Mr. Clark announced that in November and December of 1963, the FBI had made an investigation of Clay Shaw and had found him innocent of any complicity in the assassination. He did not explain why the FBI had investi-, gated Clay Shaw. 39 When asked what he thought of the new Attorney General's statement, Clay Shaw said, not unexpectedly, "I'm gratified." As Garrison later commented, "Not many defendants have the Attorney General of the United States testifying as character witness, even before the trial is set." Ramsey Clark's rather pointed effort to help Shaw backfired when reporters began asking "why". Why had the FBI checked Shaw? And why had the Attorney General made a point of helping a defendant charged in a state court for a state crime? Later, on the day of Clark's comment, a spokesman for the U.S. Dept. of Justice explained that the earlier investigation of Shaw had been because of the supposed identity of Clay Bertrand and Clay Shaw. The latter explanation only made matters worse and, eventually (on June 2) at the request of Shaw's lawyers, the Justice Department stated that the Attorney General's original statement had been untrue and that no investigation of Shaw had ever been made, because none had been necessary. A more logical explanation is that there had been no FBI investigation of Clay Shaw ~ ~ in 1963, but his name had come up in the probe of "Clay Bertrand." Earl Warren At about the same time Ramsey Clark was making his first attempt to give Shaw a boost, another voice was heard from abroad. The voice was that of Chief Justice Earl Warren, who was traveling in Peru. When asked about Shaw's possible implication in the assassination, Warren said, "I have not heard anything which would change the (Warren Commission) Report in any way, shape, or form." Ramsey Clark Again Not satisfied with his first fluff, Attorney General Clark tried again on October 13, 1967. Following a speech to the Student Legal Forum at the University of Virginia, he told students and newsmen that Garrison h

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