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SCIENCE Be TECHNOLOGY
September, 1971
Vol. 20, No.9
CDI •• puters
and automation
Computer
Prints
Kanji
IN THIS ISSUE: Management, the Computer, and Society
-
Martin Ernst
Computers and the Nation
-
Dr. Edward E. David, Jr.
Security in On-Line Systems
-
Richard A. Hirschfield
Information Systems in Urban Governments -
~
PERl180
b
Dr. Robert Keston
'-.
IP02121 9904 7112
1[2'III- 01572 *0
PERIUDICAL f
180 W SAN CARLOS ST
SA J SE CA
95113
Announcement
The Most Important of All Branches of Knowledge
(Based on the editorial in the April 1971 issue of Computers and Automation)
It may be that there is a branch of knowledge which is
the most important of all.
I[ so, I would maintain that it is a subject which used to
have the name "wisdom" but nowadays does not have a
recognized scientific name, or in any college a recognized
department or faculty to teach it. This subject currently is a
compound of common sense, wisdom, good judgment,
maturity, the scientific method, the trained capacity to
solve problems, systems analysis, operations research, and
some more besides. Its earmark is that it is a general
subject, not a special one like chemistry or psychology or
astronautics. Useful names for this subject at this time are
"generalogy" or "science in general" or "common sense,
elementary and advanced".
Many editorials published in <'Computers and Automation" have in one way or another discussed or alluded to
this subject:
Examples, Understanding, and Computers / Decemberl964
The Barrels and the Elephant: Crackpot vs. Pioneer /
May 1965
Some Questions of Semantics / August 1965
Perspective / April 1966
Computers and Scientific Models / May 1967
New Ideas that Organize Information / December
1967How to Spoil One's Mind - As Well as One's
Computer / August 1968
The Catching of Errors by Inspection / September
1968
Tunnel Vision / January 1969
The Cult of the Expert / May 1969
Computers, Language, and Reality / March 1970
Computers and Truth / August 1970
The Number of Answers to a Question/March 1971
In the editorial "The Cult of the Expert" we offered a
leaflet that belongs in this subject, "Right Answers - A
Short Guide for Obtaining Them". More than 600 readers
asked for a copy; so clearly this subject is interesting to the
readers of C&A.
This subject is related to computers and the computer
field in at least two ways:
First, many of the general principles which this subject
contains can be investigated in experimental or real situations by means of a computer. In fact, far more can be
investigated by computer than can possibly be investigated
by ordinary analytical mathematics.
Second, since computer professionals are in charge of
computing machines, many people consider these professionals responsible for the worthwhileness of the results of
computers. Because of "garbage in, garbage out", computer
professionals have a responsibility to apply common sense
and wisdom in at least three ways:
Input - in the selection and acceptance of the data
with which they begin;
Processing - in the processing through a system;
Output - in the interpretation and use of the answers.
Then the computerized systems will produce stIOng structures that human beings can use and rely on, and not weak
structures which will crash with false information or ridiculous results.
" 'C~mputers and Automation" for April 1971 contains an
article, "Common Sense, Wisdom, General Science, and Computers", which deals with this subject. For more t~an a dozen years I have been studying this subject - ever SInce I searched in avery large and good public library for a textbook ?n
common sense or wisdom and found none at all. There IS,
however, a great deal of Information to be gathered on this
subject because a large number of great men, ancient, medieval, and modern, have made remarks and comments (usually while talking or writing about something else) that belong
in this subject.
. . ,
. The subject of wisdom is parttcularly Important III these
modern days. The subject has been neglected, while special
sciences have been cultivated. Investigators have pursued
the special sciences with the enthusiasm of a child with a
new toy. Specialized science and specialized technology
have rendered our earthly world almost unrecognizable:
All major cities on the planet are only a few hours
apart by jet plane.
.
Millions upon millions of people who otherwIse
would be dead are alive because of miracle drugs,
- thus creating a population explosion;
Nuclear weapons if used can destroy mankind and
civilization in a few hours; etc.
To deal with so many diverse, vast ,problems we need
wisdom. To use wisdom we should study it.
The staff of "Computers and Automation" have decided
that it is desirable to make the drawers full of information
we have been collecting on this subject more accessible and
more widely distributed. We have decided to publish twice
a month a publication of newsletter type called "The C&A
Notebook on Common Sen~e, Elementary and Advanced".
For more details, see the announcement on page 3 opposite.
(The first few issues of the Notebook are free.)
We invite you, our readers, to join us in the pursuit of
this subject, as readers of the Notebook, and as participators with us in the research and study.
Wisdom is a joint enterprise - and truth is not shaped so
that it can fit into thepalm of anyone person's hand.
DO YOU WANT TO
PREVENT MISTAKES BEFORE THEY- HAPPEN?
- avoid pitfalls?
- find new paths around old obstacles?
- apply in practical situations the observations and
wisdom of great scientists and wise men?
- stimulate your resourcefulness?
IF SO, TRY-
- see new solutions to old problems?
distinguish between sense and nonsense?
increase your accomplishments?
improve your capacities?
The C&A Notebook on
\ND ADVANCED
dE
le of the most important
f\IT=
+
+
+
+
:oupon - THE NEXT 16 ISSUES ARE:
Editor: Edmund C. Berkeley,
author, businessman, actuary,
scientist, computer professional
first secretary of the Associatio
for Computing Machinery 194J
editor of Computers and Auton
RETURNABLE IN 7 DAYS
FOR FULL REFUND, IF
NOT SATISFACTORY WHY NOT TAKE A LOOK?
..... HOW CAN YOU LOSE?
?reventing Mistakes from Failure
to Understand
['he Stage of Maturity and Judgment
in any Field of Knowledge and
Experience
'oomsday in St. Pierre, Martinique
- Common Sense vs. Catastrophe
he History of the Doasyoulikes
dividuality in Human Beings, .••
)w to be Silly
Ie Three Earthworms
.e Cochrans vs. Catastrophe
San Jose
Public Library
fOR OVERllME A GHARGE Of 5 GENTS
~
DAY
I
of books is expected and any soiling,
COMPUTERS AND.
Careful usu~e .
b
uid for by the borrower,
815 Washington St. ,
damage or loss 1S to c P
___ ~~uUHVll .::len'se at $12 a year,
YES, please e
24 issues ,___ .. ~.L"'''''C.L· :;LYle), and extras.
Please send me (as FREE premiums for subscribing) the first six issues:
1. Right Answers - A Short Guide to Obtaining Them
4. Strategy in Chess
2. The Empty Column
5. The Barrels and the Elephant
3. The Golden Trumpets of Yap Yap
6. The Argument of the Beard
I enclose $
( ) Please bill me
) Please bill my organization
Name ______________________________________________________ Title_______________________
To:
Organization ________________________________________________________________________________________
Address ____________________________----_____________________________________________________________
Signature___________________________________________________ Purchase Order No, ______________________
+
Vol. 20, NO.9
September, 1971
corn I?nHE!,!:i!
The magazine of the design, applications, and implicat?:ons
of infoTmation pTocessing systems.
Computers and Security of the Business
15
Editor
Edmund C. Berkeley
Assistant Editors
Linda Ladd Lovett
Neil D. Macdonald
Software Editor
Stewart B. Nelson
Advertising
Director
Edmund C. Berkeley
Art Directors
Contributing
Editors
Advisory
Committee
Ray W. Hass
Daniel T. Langdale
Compu ters and Cities
21
John BenneH
Moses M. Berlin
Andrew D. Booth
John W. Carr III
Ned Chapin
Alston S. Householder
Leslie Mezei
Ted Schoeters
Richard E. Sprague
SECURITY IN ON-LINE SYSTEMS - A PRIMER FOR
[T A]
MANAGEMENT
by Richard A. Hirschfield, Executive Vice President, Computer
Audit Systems, Inc.
How an on-line computer system can be protected by: preventing illegal access to data; controlling the data received at the
computer from remote locations; providing for back-up systems;
and auditing the system.
[T A]
INFORMATION SYSTEMS IN URBAN GOVERNMENTS
by Dr. Robert Keston, President, Keston Associates
The integration and reorganization of various units of local
government permits successful use of computerized information systems for solving urban problems.
Computers Abroad
18
James J. Cryan
Alston S. Householder
Bernard Quint
THE JAPANESE COMPUTER MARKET - CHARACTERISTICS
ADVERSELY AFFECTING U.S. TRADE INTERESTS
[T A]
.... Part Two
by Stephen T. McClellan, Analyst, U.S. Department of Commerce
How the Japanese government protects its computer industry
by financial controls on foreign computers.
Computers and Society
Editorial Offices
Advertising
Contact
Berkeley Enterprises, Inc.
815 Washington St.,
Newtonville, Mass. 02160
617-332-5453
THE PUBLISHER'
Berkeley Enterprises, Inc.
815 Washington St.,
Newtonville, Mass. 02160
617-332-5453
Computers and Automation is published monthly
(except two issues in June) at 815 Washington
St., Newtonville, Mass. 02160, by Berkeley Enerprises, Inc. Printed in U.S.A.
SUDscription rates: United States, 11 monthly
issues and two issues in .June (one of which
is a directory issue) - $18.50 for 1 year, $36.00
for 2 years; 12 monthly issues (without directory
issue in June) - $9.50 for 1 year; $18.00 for
2 years. Canada, add 50¢ a year for postage;
foreiqn, add $3.50 a year for postage. Address
all U.S. subscription mail to: Berkeley Enterprises,
Inc., 815 Washington St., Newtonville, Mass.
02160. Second Class Postage paid at Boston, Mass.
Postmaster: Please send all forms 3579 to
Berkeley Enterprises, Inc., 815 Washington St.,
Newtonville, Mass. 02160. © Copyright 1971, by
Berkeley Enterprises, Inc.
Change of address: If your address changes,
please send us both your new addre~~ and your old
address (as it appears on the magazine address
imprint), and allow three weeks for the change to
be made.
4
8
[T A]
MANAGEMENT, THE COMPUTER, AND SOCIETY
by Martin Ernst, Arthur D. Little, Inc., Cambridge, Mass.
Large groups of people can be hurt by expansion in the range of
computer activities ... and it is desirable for businessmen to
recognize these problems, and make an effort to overcome them.
12
[NT A]
COMPUTERS AND THE NATION
by Dr. Edward E. David, Jr., Science Adviser to President
Richard M. Nixon
How computers might become a major resource for the nation.
Computers, Common Sense, Wisdom, and Science in General
6
NINE AND NI-YEN
[NT E]
by Edmund C. Berkeley, Editor, Computers and Automation
Human beings are able to function with many kinds of inaccuracies, confusions, and perplexities. Computers can't. The
interaction is producing a desirable pressure on the conventional behavior of human beings.
2
THE MOST IMPORTANT OF ALL BRANCHES OF
KNOWLEDGE
Common sense, wisdom, and science in general.
[NT F]
3
THE C&A NOTEBOOK ON COMMON SENSE, ELEMENTARY
AND ADVANCED
[NT F]
Announcement
7
NEWS AND DEVE LOPMENTS
[NT F]
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for September, 1971
Computers, Communications, and Cryptography
36
COMMUNICATION AND CIPHERS, WITH A HEXADECIMAL
ALPHABET AND VARIATIONS
[T A]
by O. N. Minot, Lexington Research, the Editor, and
Neil Macdonald, Assistant Editor
The use of computers to produce ciphers, to perform enciphering and deciphering, and to solve ciphering systems, probably
allows a new level of complexity in ciphering systems to become practical.
Front Cover Picture
Computers, Science, and Assassinations
26
THE FEDERAL BUREAU OF INVESTIGATION AND THE
ASSASSINATION OF PRESIDENT KENNEDY
[NT A]
by Bernard Fensterwald, Jr., Attorney
How J. Edgar Hoover and the FB I withheld much pertinent information from the Warren Commission, flooded them with
irrelevant information, and altered some important evidence,
thus concealing Oswald's connections with the FBI.
Computers and Unemployment
30
THE UNEMPLOYED COMPUTER PROFESSIONAL TURNED
BUSINESSMAN: PRODUCTS AND SERVICES WHICH A
NEW SMALL BUSINESS MIGHT PRODUCE OR OFFER
[NT A]
by Edmund C. Berkeley, Editor
How an unemployed computer professional might go into
business for himself and earn a reasonable income as his own
employer.
The Golden Trumpet
32
"90 Million People Fully Employed in 80 Million Jobs"
- Comments
[NT G]
Computers in an Anti-Ballistic Missile System
33
I Believe in an Anti-Ballistic Missile System
by R,obert L. Glass and the Editor
33
A Publication that Thinks About the Profession and the
Relation of the Profession to Society
by Michael Lipp, Cybermatics Inc.
34
One Computer Professional for the Anti-Ballistic Missile System
by Ronald G. Windsor, Harford Junior College
34
Seven More Computer Experts Become Sponsors of Group
Against ABM
by M. Kozikowski, Computer Professionals Against ABM
[T F]
[T F]
[T F]
[T F]
35
"The Anti-Ballistic Missile System is Defensive"
from Patrick M. Cooney to Daniel D. McCracken
[T F]
35
Gathering Force Against the ABM
[T F]
based on a report by Victor K. McElheny, "The Boston Globe"
Computers and Puzzles
7
48
Problem Corner, by Walter Penney, COP
[T C]
Numbles, by Neil Macdonald
[T C]
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for September, 1971
The front cover shows an impact printer which, together with
a keyboard attachment, can input
or output to a computer over
10,000 different characters. These
may be ideographic, alphabetic,
or symbolic, including Kanji ideograms (shown in the background),
the Hiragana and Katakana alphabets, the Roman alphabet (upper
or lower case), Arabic numerals,
and other symbols. The two peripherals will be manufactured in
Japan by I BM Japan Ltd. For
more information, see page 43.
NOTICE
*0 ON YOUR ADDRESS IMPRINT
MEANS THAT YOUR SUBSCRIPTION INCLUDES THE COMPUTER
DIRECTORY. *N MEANS THAT
YOUR PRESENT SUBSCRIPTION
:DOES NOT INCLUDE THE COMPUTER DIRECTORY.
Departments
40
40
41
42
48
49
Across the Editor's Desk
Applications
Education News
Mi scell aneous
Advertising Index
Calendar of Coming
Events
32, 48 Corrections
45
Monthly Computer
Census
43
New Contracts
44
New Installations
Key
[A]
[C]
[E]
[F]
[G]
[NT]
[T]
-
Article
Monthly Column
Editorial
Forum
Golden Trumpet
Not Technical
Technical Computer
Information
5
c. a
EDITORIAL
NINE AND NI-YEN
The use of computers is having a wholesome and
beneficial influence on a number of strands of the conventional behavior of human beings. In this respect, computers
are exerting an influence like the influence of big capital
cities, and like mass communication systems such as radio
and TV; these have caused the decline of linguistic dialects
and the decrease of provincialism, among other things.
Computers are exerting profound influences on the human
uses of symbols and language.
More Systematic Symbols
For example, mathematicians have had until recently a
habit of designating various rather simple mathematical
ideas with ideographic symbols that are rather strange and
forbidding to ordinary human b,eings. For example, an
integral is often designated by the ideogram J ; an ideogram
is a single picture, a diagram, or nonalphabetic symbol for
an idea; the biggest ideographic system in existence is the
system of Chinese characters. The ideogram J is derived
from an old form of capital letter S, and Was chosen in
order to allude to the initial letter of the word sum; it refers
to the fact that an integral is a certain kind of sum. The
symbol has an exact meaning that usually takes about
twenty words to express, but is often read aloud by
mathematicians as "the integral of'.
But if a mathematician wishes to use this concept in a
computer programming language, he regularly has to submit
to the diScipline of a regular typewriter keyboard with 42
keys and two shifts for producing 84 letters, figures, and
signs. And so he is compelled to use the far more general
and basically much more sensible alphabetic system of
symbolizing which employs a string of several letters together, such as INT or INTG to stand for "the integral of".
In trigonometry the alphabetic system has been used for
more than 70 years; the usual trigonometric symbols are
SIN, COS, TAN, COT, SEC, and CSC.
The alphabetic form of symbolizing will increase, the
ideographic form will decrease, as the result of the use of
computers.
6
More Distinguished Sounds
When we turn to spoken symbols, we notice that the use
of machines to understand spoken words is just beginning.
Among the first words which a listening machine (or
listening peripheral for a computer) will need to distinguish
are the spoken words for the ten decimal digits: ONE,
TWO, THREE, FOUR, FIVE, SIX, SEVEN, EIGHT, NINE,
ZERO (or OH). Nowadays even human beings listening
often have trouble deciding whether a speaker is saying
FIVE or saying NINE. So the telephone company has
suggested using the pronunciation NI-YEN.
This suggestion often calls forth from many human
beings the silly laughter and ridicule which expresses their
resistance to change. These are the people who would
rather believe what they already believe than make any
effort to change their minds for valid reasons. In other
words, they would rather die than think - and often do. It
is an unusual person who can reply like the famous
Irishman who, when asked why he had changed his mind
and run away from a battle, replied, "I'd r-r-ruther be a
cowar-r-rd for five minutes than a cor-r-rpse for the r-r-rest
of me life."
NI-YEN is a good suggestion, and there are many more
like it. Everybody who is interested in a better future - one
which holds less confusion than our days do _. should try
to implement NI-YEN and its relatives. In this way we give
the listeners the breaks, rather than the dictionaries, which
regularly report only good current usage - and do not add
such a remark as "the recommended new pronunciation is
NI-YEN".
Less Sloppiness
Another significant influence of computers on conventional human behavior is the increased requirement computers place on human beings to be more accurate and
more complete - less sloppy. Nowadays, computer programs only rarely apply common sense to words and
figures, and "recognize from the context" that certain
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for September, 1971
words must be wrong. In the printing of an article to be
read by human beings, a proofreader can let slip by the
word "bandwith" instead of "bandwidth" (as we unfortunately did on page 30 of "Computers and Automation"
for April). Human beings (though not computers) are likely
to guess the correction needed, in fact may not even detect
the error.
But a computer is sensitive to the spelling of the symbols
that its program works with. There is on record the miss of
a Mariner space probe to Mars; it missed Mars, as I recollect,
because at one point in the computer program there was a
hyphen instead of a blank.
Human beings are able to function with ideograms,
insufficiently distinct pronunciations, incorrect spellings,
imprecise words, and many other kinds of inaccuracies,
confusions, and perplexities. This occurs mainly because
human beings come equipped with a built-in evaluating
function which uses observations, context, surroundings,
experience, judgement, and capacity to decide. So a human
being can easily say, "She told me 'I hate you', but I know
she did not mean that." A computer program can't behave
that way at all easily.
This evaluating function clearly is derived from more
than 300 million years of evolution, during which living
species developed capacities to solve problems of finding
food, judging food, finding shelter, escaping from danger,
etc. I would like to call the evaluating function "the old
brain". The evaluating function does not include symbolic
language, a facility which probably has not evolved for
much more than 3 million years, although the evaluating
function can of course be applied to symbolic language.
The handling of symbolic language is in "the new brain", in
the human brain and perhaps in the dolphin's brain.
Computers behave very differently. Within a computer
there is a very close correspondence between ideas and
strings of symbols. Computer programming for reasonable
operations, and computer representations for reasonable
data, are very systematic. And so computers require from
human beings behavior which is more sensible, reasonable,
accurate, complete, and systematic than human beings have
ever been accustomed to providing. This is a desirable
pressure.
PROBLEM CORNER
Walter Penney, CDP
Problem Editor
Computers and Automation
PROBLEM 719: MESSAGES IN MATH?
"Abe is a queer combination of mystic and computer
Pete said. "He sees all sorts of meanings in things
we'd never give a second thought to."
"What is he seeing now?" asked Dick. "Not some more
hexadecimal output spelling out his name, I hope."
"No, not this time. He's trying to figure out why he got
the number of this year as a solution to one of his
problems. He's sure there's something significant there."
"What problem is that?"
"Well, he decided he would try to disprove. Fermat's
Last Theorem by fmding an integral solution of Y! + y3 =
z3. He had the crazy idea that he might be able to creep up
on it by easy stages, first solving x 2 + y2 = Z3, then x 2 + y3 =
Z3, and fmally x 3 + y3 =r."
"Did he ever succeed?" Dick was beginning to get
interested.
"No, of course not. Actually he got sidetracked and
never got beyond the first equation. The first solution he
had x = 1971 and he was sure the
got for x2 + y2 =
computer was trying to tell him something. I don't know
how much machine time he's wasted trying to figure this
out."
"What were the values of y and z?"
"Suppose we leave that as an exercise for the student",
said Pete with a smile.
man'~,
r
What were the values of y and z?
Solution to Problem 718: Odds on Aces
The probability of getting an Ace in the first seven cards
24-23-22-21-20-19-18
is 1 - 26-25-24-23-22-21-20
=
154
.
325 or .474 approxl-
mately. Hence the odds were against Joe.
Edmund C. Berkeley
Editor
Readers are invited to submit problems (and their solutions) for
publication in this column to: Problem Editor, Computers and
Automation, 815 Washington St., Newtonville, Mass. 02160.
The C&A Notebook on COMMON SENSE, ELEMENTARY AND ADVANCED We are much encouraged by the subscription enrollment so
far in "The C &A Notebook on Common Sense, Elementary and
Advanced". Although no subscription solicitations have been
mailed so far, our subscribers to the Notebook (at present
writing almost 200) include many very thoughtful people and a
number of large, important organizations.
As a result, it seems clear: first, that the Notebook is filling a definite need; and second, that we can do some things that
we had hoped to do, but were not at the start ready to promise
to do, namely:
(1) Include as dividends in the first volume at least 6 more
issues, making the total issues in Volume 1 at least 30;
(2) Focus from time to time on ideas that are worth their
weight in gold;
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for September, 1971
NEWS AND DEVELOPMENTS
(3) Continue to mail all issues by first class mail; and
(4) Continue to start all subscribers at Vol. 1, No.1, so
that no one loses earlier published information.
The contributions of essays and reports that have so far
been received from the two dozen Participators in the project
are in general much more interesting and much more squarely
on the subj ect than we had anticipated.
So the project of investigating common sense, wisdom,
and science in general, and their relations to computers appears to be one of the most interesting and important projects
that "Computers and Automation" and its supporters have ever
undertaken. Of course, computers are an ideal resource for investigating situations, environments, and problems in general.
For more information, see pages 2 and 3 of this issue.
7
MANAGEMENT, THE COMPUTER, AND SOCIETY
"It is important to recognize the existence of many factors which can operate
to make the compu ter socially unpalatable. "
Martin Ernst
Arthur D. Little, Inc.
25 Acorn Park
Cambridge, Mass. 02140
(Based on a talk to businessmen in Boston, Mass., June 9, 1971)
Seventeen years ago the first attempt was made to put a
computer to routine industrial use. In 1953, General Electric tried to place their local payroll on a computer at
Appliance Park. From all accounts, they had a terrible time.
It took many months; major difficulties were encountered;
and, all in all, it was a very painful process.
If you want to buy a computer today, Neiman-Marcus
will be glad to supply you with a Honeywell machine for
home use - if you can figure out what you want to do with
it. So, computers have moved from a rarity to something
we encounter almost every day in one form or another.
Cost Reductions
Growth in the computer business has been fed by
technological advances that have made computing equip-
ment cheaper and better each year; and technological
progress is defmitely going to continue at a high rate for at
least another decade. For example, we can expect approximately a doubling in speed of large central processors,
during the next five years or so and a halving in cost per
unit of computer power. Even more dramatic improvements in mini-computer cost-effectiveness seem assured.
Gains by a factor of as high as ten may be possible prior to
1980.
For a long time, high speed core memory has been an
expensive item in computer configurations. These memories
will probably improve in access time by a factor of four in
the next decade, and their costs will probably decrease by a
factor of between four and eight. Low speed memory in the
past has tended to be monopolized by magnetic tapes or by
fairly clumsy random access equipment. Now it is technically possible to build devices that, for all practical
purposes, have infinite memory capacity and modest costs,
although they will be relatively slow of access.
Cheaper Peripherals
Martin L. Ernst pioneered in operations analysis and systems
development. As Associate Director, he was responsible for
most of the research done by the Operations Analysis Group
operated by Massachusetts Institute of Technology for the
Chief of Naval Operations. His projects at Arthur D. Little
include one of the world's largest non-government on-line
systems and the currept attack on Wall Street's paper crisis.
Mr. Ernst is a past President of the Operations Research
Society of America.
8
With these equipment cost reductions under way,
peripherals such as input/output terminals have become a
major factor in the cost of modern installations; but even
these are going to become cheaper as we move from
mechanical devices, with their high production and maintenance costs, to all-electronic systems. Finally, there is a
strong likelihood that the entire data insertion process will
be revolutionized before the end of the next decade
through the introduction of voice control mechanisms and
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for September, 1971
inexpensive, broadly useful character recognition equipment.
Stage Three
As equipment is becoming more diverse, efficient and
cheaper, we are entering what sometimes is called Stage
Three of computer usage. We have passed through the
earlier periods, when the computer's capability was limited
to performing 'simple clerical operations, or to producing
routine decisions in areas such as inventory control. Now
the primary excitement is in how computers can aid in
major management decisions.
Social Problems of Computers
I could devote considerable space to discussing the
problems of using computers for management decisionmaking, but there is another family of problems that is even
more deserving of attention - what I will call the social
problems associated with the use of computers. First, let
me explain why I have selected this subject. Fundamentally, I happen to be a believer in computers - in the sense
that I think they can help us perform a great range of tasks
better, while relieving us of a lot of boring, routine, human
operations. However, I think it important to recognize the
existence of many factors which can operate to make the
computer socially unpalatable.
There are large groups of people who can be hurt by
expansion in the range of computer activities and there is a
lot of fear - both justified and unjustified - of such
developments. Many of the sources of concern arise in a
business context and businessmen can alleviate some of
them. So, I seek to call the attention of businessmen to
these problems in the hope that you will recognize them in
your own use of computers and will make the effort to
overcome them. By doing this it will be possible to tay-e
relatively full advantage of computers without paying undue social penalties.
Although I repeatedly refer to the computer, I am
concerned not with the computer itself but with the many
activities and operations which it makes possible and
economical. The computer is a tool and no more responsible for its use than the gun employed in a murder;
however, in both instances, those who build and sell these
tools, and those who have legitimate and desirable uses for
them, have an obligation to participate actively in measures
to prevent their misuse. The problem of personification of
computers is not a theoretical one: a small society of
professionals has already been organized to combat this
tendency. Somewhat related, a major computer manufacturer is placing advertisements devoted to the question
of whether computers are "for or against us."
Early Warnings of Social Dangers
We have had early warnings of the social dangers in the
growth of computer usage; for example, Norbert Weiner
raised important questions many years ago in his first book
on cybernetics. However, until recently these warnings
meant very little - computers played too small a role in
society to make their unpleasant aspects very painful. Our
period of grace is now coming to an end. It would be good
to give you a well structured and orderly statement of the
origins of our problems and their potential cures. But, I
don't believe we have reached a stage in understanding that
permits this. The best I can do is to share with you some
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for September, 1971
examples, ideas, and suggestions that are still in a formative
stage, in an effort to begin more productive thinking.
To help present these tentative ideas, I have divided
computer impact into three broad areas: depersonalization,
talent bias and vulnerability. These terms can best be
explained by citing some examples.
Depersonalization
The origins of depersonalization lie in the high degree of
standardization needed to use computers efficiently. As
computer activities spread their influence, individuals tend
to feel that they are being molded to fit the computer's
needs rather than that the computer is being employed to
meet their needs. It probably is no accident that, during the
first of the major campus riots at Berkeley, resentment was
directed to the punch cards and computers that students
claimed made them feel more like numbers than like
people.
Airlines Systems
A more concrete example lies in airlines reservations
systems. A few of the largest airlines have been able to plan
and develop computer reservations systems tailored to meet
their own particular needs, but this process is difficult and
expensive. Smaller airlines have no choice but to select an
existing package of programs and attempt to modify them
to fit their own character and style. I know of one case
where a review indicated a need for some 60 significant
program changes in an available package if the resulting
system was to match the operating procedures and philosophy of the airline. When the effort for performing such a
surgical operation was investigated, the airline decided it
could afford almost none of these desirable changes. It now
operates like every other airline employing the same basic
system and has lost a bit of its special personality and
flavor.
Billing Operations
Another unpleasant encounter with computers, which I
am sure we all face, involves dealing with a company that
has automated its billing operations. At first I had faith that
this would be a transient situation but during the preparations for this talk I found that this is not the case. One
associate of mine is currently going through the excruciating process of unsnarling his financial obligations to a
successful, widely known and highly efficient organization,
while another associate went through exactly the same
process - and for the same reasons - with the same
company as much as six years ago. The problem arises from
the fact that it is always difficult to insert an exception into
a computer run. This difficulty is compounded if an
organization seeks to get by with minimum training of the
clerical staff that examines the customer input of payments
and complaints about misbilling. The final result is that the
customer writes letter after letter into a non-answering
void, with resentment growing at each cycle.
There are ways for the individual to deal with these
mis-billings and to achieve fairly prompt satisfaction. However, it's probably only the more sophisticated of our
population who will learn these methods. The poor and the
less educated are ill-prepared to deal with these situations;
they are far more apt to accept errors and try to pay, but
they do this with a sense of resentment and growing
dissa tisfaction.
9
Dealing With Exceptions
I regard this as a real business failure. Planning to deal
with exceptions has been completely inadequate in the
design of most computer billing systems and their associated manual procedures. There seems to be little excuse for
this. Very few companies have difficulty picking up changes
of address in the blank spaces provided for this purpose on
most bills. No company with which I have had contact has
similarly provided a set of blank spaces for their customers
to register disagreement with the billing data reported to
them!
Load Balancing
There are many other examples associated with standard
customer-business relationships. We are all subject to some
of the penalties of load balancing, which has become an
important requirement of all major computer installations.
Instead of consistently getting bills to be paid by the ttmth
of the month, as was the case in my father's day, bills keep
streaming in throughout the month as various service
installations attempt to keep their computers loaded
evenly. With delays in computer output and mail delivery,
and interest penalties for slow payment, one has to keep
the checkbook constantly on hand.
These are all minor matters if viewed singly, but, when
accumulated, they boost our frustration level alarmingly
and seem to chip away at our individuality and personality.
Privacy
A second area of depersonalization concerns privacy.
Privacy considerations occur most frequently in regard to
credit information, though even more serious invasions may
occur in the collection and transmission of health, employment and other information. We have collected and employed credit information for a very long time, but neyer
with the degree of completeness and nationwide access
made possible by high speed communications and electronic data processing equipment. I wonder how many of
you are completely satisfied that the information concerning your own credit is based on appropriate inputs? How
many of you would like to see this information, to make
sure that failure to pay a bill during some past period
because the circumstances justified your delay does not
appear on your records as a negative mark.
Rights to Individuals to Discover what Credit
Organizations Have on File About Them
Fortunately, some solid steps have been taken in this
area of credit information. A national law now gives
significant rights to individuals to discover what information concerning themselves is being held on file. S('me of
the better credit associations took equivalent or even
stronger steps prior to the passage of this law. Unfortunately, as with most legal steps, there are a number of
loopholes; and we again face the problem that the least
sophisticated among us are not apt to discover and apply
their rights even though they are the ones who probably
suffer most from the system.
Further, credit information is by no means the only area
of concern. There are many reasons for developing good
medical data banks but the issues of privacy and access
must be solved before these banks can be made effective.
The subject of psychiatric information is a particularly
10
difficult one since, without proper safeguards it could be
used for blackmail purposes.
Displacement by Computers
A third area of depersonalization has to do with the
opportunities for white collar workers to get started in
business. The current situation, as most of you are aware, is
one wherein more and more clerks are being displaced by
computers. So far, this displacement has been largely made
up for by the increasing numbers of people needed to
handle the input and output information, to design computer programs, and to undertake the variety of services
necessary to use computers effectively. However, one very
large component of this work force - the personnel
responsible for preparing input - is threatened by the
development of efficient and economical character recognition devices. I feel that in the next decade a significant
component of the current work force in this area will be
eliminated. This means that a certain type of starting job
for the white collar worker will disappear in much the sense
that the automatic elevator removed a kind of starting
opportunity for the least trained blue collar workers. We do
not seem to have particularly good alternatives available for
the starting clerical worker, so a certain range of opportunities is going to be cut off and there undoubtedly will be
resentment about this process.
Disenfranchisement of People Through Credit Cards
Finally, and an extreme case, the use of computers can
lead to a form of disenfranchisement of people. This
possibility shows up most clearly in the area of credit cards,
a phenomenon whose growth is closely tied to computers.
The use of these cards is increasing at a rapid rate, and over
a period of time, we can visualize approaching an almost
cashless society. One can ask the question: what happens
then to a man who cannot get credit and cannot obtain a
credit card? Will he, in a valid sense, be banned from a form
of equal opportunity in our society?
We have other examples of indirect forms of disenfranchisement already operating and some of them are quite
painful. People who, because of age or disability, are not
able to drive private automobiles, are disenfranchised from
a considerable portion of our social activity because they
have almost completely lost a mobility on which our
society depends as our public transport degenerates.
They fmd themselves limited as to where they can live
and where they can work; they are not only restricted in
activities but very likely must pay more for the basic
elements of living because of these restrictions.
The beginnings of this type of disenfranchisement in the
credit card area are already beginning to be evident. When
one registers at a hotel in a number of U.S. cities, there is a
sign behind the registration desk to the effect that the local
innkeepers' association "requires" that guests either provide
an acceptable credit card or pay for their room in advance.
This may make good business sense for the hotels, but it is
also a minor indignity. The passing of blame for the act to
an innkeepers' association has a ring of phoniness and
deprives the consumer - and, at least in theory, the hotels
- of their freedom of choice in the market.
Talent Bias
A second broad area of social impact by computers
concerns the extension of an existing talent bias - a bias in
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for September, 1971
favor of technical training and experience as opposed to the
humanities. As we move into Stage Three of the computer
revolution, there will be changes in the requirements for
talent to serve business effectively. Previously, computers
have been devoted to clerical areas which, by their nature,
already had to be routinized within a given company.
Management decisions are not standard and we rarely have
a library of procedures available that can be programmed
into a computer. If we wish to use the computer effectively, we are going to have to develop new techniques. We
will have to acquire large numbers of personnel for developing these techniques and analyzing the output of computer
runs. For example, a lot has been written and some
excellent work has been done on the role of simulations in
the decision-making process. But just a few minutes of time
on a computer, running a complex simulation, can call for
many man-months of analysis to understand the implications of the output. One result will be enormous requirements for analytical skills in business staffs.
Analytical Skills Not Backed With Practical Experience
Analytical skills unbacked with realistic experience can
lead to a variety of difficulties. Our military organization
has often been a leader in trying new techniques; so it is
worthwhile taking a quick look at what has been happening
recently in the Pentagon. During the McNamara era, enormous emphasis was placed on employing analytical techniques to establish and justify expenditure levels. There
were many cases in which these techniques were not well
employed because we did not have the skills available yet.
Failures due to misapplication have approached a very
strong reaction to the analytical approach for developing
expenditure budgets. These skills are now being employed
far less by the military.
We face a situation where competition will demand
effective employment of skills in short supply. Either the
performance will be poor, leading to backtracking and loss
of efficiency, or new procedures will be necessary for
providing both a larger supply of technical skills and a basis
for combining these skills with practical experience.
Addiction of Playing Games With Computers
Another area of talent bias arises in training and education. Some months ago Datamation Magazine published a
rather interesting science fiction-type article which, among
other things, discussed a future period where playing games
with computers had become a sociological disease very
equivalent to narcotics addiction. It was an amusing article
but it lost some of its humor when we made a recent survey
for a major university concerned with planning for their
development and use of computers. We encountered a
number of students who had become so fascinated with the
computers made available to them that they lost all interest
in their courses and were devoting essentially all of their
time to playing with the computers!
New Demands for Skills
We face a number of problems in educational institutions in that the future demands of business call for certain
talents to a greater extent than they probably are naturally
present in the human race. These demands tend to cut
down the stature and role of the student studying humanities as he visualizes his position in future society. The new
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for September, 1971
demands place great emphasis on mathematical and analytical skills and tend to split the student body into two
components - technically-oriented and humanitiesoriented. I believe this split is resented, and some evidence
of a rather emotional getting-together of the segments of
the student body was quite visible in the recent riots and
protests. It should also be pointed out that a significant
number of faculty members in most of our schools have an
extreme distaste or even fear of the computer. Some of this
will begin to come through to the students that they train,
as the computer develops a bigger and bigger role in
university and daily life.
Loss of a Training Ground for Management
The talent bias also has an impact on management
training. The use of computers has often led to elimination
of some echelons in the organization of companies. This
may achieve greater efficiency, but you also can lose a very
important training ground for future management. The
result may be an increasing trend for progress to senior
managerial positions to come through staff rather than line
positions. There are some reasons to suspect that over time,
this trend could have disastrous results. As the computer
plays more and more of a role, there will be less and less
opportunity to develop junior and intermediate management skills. This must be faced as a real threat for the
future.
VulneraJ>ility
The third general topic is that of vulnerability. There are
a number of forms which this can take. First, I do not think
we have even begun to see the extent to which fraud can
take place through the use of computers. There have been a
limited number of examples, but skills in manipulating
computers can unquestionably be employed in ways we
have not yet visualized to milk companies and to perpetrate
fraud or thefts. This subject has not received adequate and
serious study.
Reliability Problems
Second, we are going to face a variety of reliability
problems. I was once told of an occasion when the head of
the American Airlines automated reservations systems paid
a visit to the U.S. Air Defense Command. During a
discussion, one of the officers turned to him and said in
effect: "You know, you people really have the reliability
problem. Our equipment can go down for an hour or so,
and if the Russians don't choose that period to attack, we
bring it up again and nobody knows anything has happened! But if you go down for an hour or so, you have got
a lot of angry customers who are aware that you have been
having difficulties." We can extrapolate this further. There
has been a lot of attention paid to the problems of floor
automation on Wall Street. To my mind, one of the most
legitimate barriers to progress has been the reliability of
equipment. An airline may get into difficulty if its reservations equipment goes down for an hour. On the trading
floor, a five minute failure of a computer can lead to nearly
disastrous results.
I ncreased Vulnerability
In the future we are going to be faced with problems as
our banking system, our mutual funds, our stock exchange
(Please turn to page 14)
11
COMPUTERS AND THE NATION
"We all have an awesome task to convert the image of computers from the image
of an unwelcome intruder and a disagreeable agent of change, to the image of a
benevolent helper and resource for our country. "
Dr. Edward E. David, Jr.
Science Adviser to President Richard M. Nixon
The White House
Washington, D. c.
(Based on a talk to the Computer Science and Engineering Board
of the National Academy of Sciences, June 25, 1971, Washington,
D.C.)
What can computers do for the nation as a whole?
I am eager that the best minds in the computer field
look upon the computing field as a national resource, and
not as a closed community for disciplinary effort with only
financial connections to the outside world.
The future wellbeing of computing depends at least in
part upon the resolution of questions of communication
about computers to the general public and to potential
users - for in my present position I find a profound
skepticism of projected beneficial uses of computers.
People Unwilling to Accept Computers
It seems very clear that the most frequent barrier to the
use of computers in imaginative ways is that people and
institutions are not ready for them.
For example, I understand that physicians and hospital
personnel in some places have shown themselves unwilling
to accept the complete change in their professional habits
that effective computer usage requires. This seerris to arise
primarily because these people seem not to understand the
nature of their own work. Such a situation is often a
precursor to rejection of automated techniques. In effect,
people want simply to mechanize their usual ways of going
about their jobs, rather than asking how computers will
enable them to do things differer.tly and more efficiently.
I know that this is a familiar story to most computer
people, but it is ill understood by officialdom, whether in
government, industry, or universities and coJIeges.
condition which he calls "future shock". Actually, my
social scientist friends tell me that there is little evidence
for the existence of this phenomenon. However, there is
good evidence that people can adapt to change when they
themselves are controlling it. They do not adapt when
change is imposed upon them by some outside force. As all
good computer people know, this observation provides the
key to using the computer efficiently as a catalyst for
change in institutions, This process involves communication
about computers to the layman, to the person who is wary
of computers, or who has encountered them only as an
impediment to correct department store billing. It is no
easy task.
I look upon the computer as a resource for the nation;
and indeed there are many national problems to which it
seems central.
Decline in Productivity Increase
One of these is the area of productivity. As many of you
know, the rate of productivity increase in our economy in
the past few years has been slowly declining. This means
that the output per worker is not increasing as rapidly as it
did in the past. The figures are something like this: The
average yearly productivity increase from 1948 through
1968 was about 3.2%. Since that time it has dropped to
between 1 and 2%, although recently we have observed a
higher rate. Some economists have said that the lag in
increase of productivity is a cause of inflation, since wages
have been going up more rapidly than productivity. When
one looks into the structure of the economy, the importance of the computer in the productivity context becomes
evident.
Adapting to Rapid Social Change
The computer is indeed a catalyst for change and people
tend to resist change when they do not control it themselves.
Change as a social phenomenon is something which has
been addressed by Alvin Toffler in his book, Future Shock.
Toffler's thesis in that book is that when the rate of change
is too great, people are not able to adapt and go into a
12
Service Industries Increasing
Currently, the people working in agriculture and manufacturing are about 45% of the total U.S. work force, while
55% are engaged in rendering services of one kind or
another including, for example, education, health care,
government operations, and the like. This implies that more
than half of our workers are engaged in the service indusCOMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for September, 1971
tries as opposed to those which produce real goods. If we
look into the future, we find an even more startling
situation. In 1980 it is estimated that 65% will be in the
service industries. Taken with the growth of jobs, this
implies a rather startling fact: namely, nine out of every ten
new jobs which are created between now and 1980 will be
in the service industries.
Improving Productivity in Service Industries
If we are to improve productivity markedly, therefore, a
substantial part of that improvement must come in the
service industries as opposed to improvements in manufacturing productivity. I might add that since only 5% of the
work force is engaged in agriculture, and that figure is still
shrinking, productivity improvements in agriculture will
have little overall effect on productivity figures.
Now, computers and computer-related technologies have
a high potential for improving productivity ~n services; but
as you well know, to do so is not simple. In addition to the
necessity for allowing users to participate in the process of
computer-induced change, there are several other
necessities.
One clear-cut necessity concerns economies of scale.
Often and often the prospective economies leading to
improved productivity depend upon high levels of traffic,
and this involves system considerations including (1) communication techniques to cover geographically-distributed
populations and (2) multi-programming as an aid to sharing
facilities among many users. Finding a critical mass of users
to generate the necessary traffic is only one of the many
impediments to applying computers in the service sector.
Another necessity is reduction of the cost of terminals.
This is a major hurdle. The point is that we clearly need
focussed efforts to solve such problems. Needless to say,
their solutions would be good for the computer industry
but also, of course, good for the nation.
Computers Protecting Individuality
Now, it is often said that computers are a challenge to
the privacy of the individual and to individuality itself.
Indeed, it cannot be denied that computers have been used
in just these ways in the past. However, .these effects are
not intrinsic to the computer itself. Computers can be used
to protect people's privacy. In fact, a well-designed computer system can be made more nearly private than the
manual filing methods used today. The technology and
technique to accomplish this is in hand or nearly so. Some
further innovative effort can provide further advances, but
the problem is that system designers and their customers
have not seen fit to utilize the available technology to
protect people's privacy. Again, in this area the question of
efficiency and costs arises. It may well be true that special
hardware will have to be incorporated into computing
systems to facilitate the elaborate protective mechanisms
which in the end will be required for adequate privacy. The
impetus for these developments has been slow in coming,
but I believe we will see incentives by government for such
developments. Senator Ervin has held hearings at which
issues concerning privacy and computers have been examined.
Establishing Privacy Standards
The executive branch of the government also is looking
at these problems, and it may be that the day will come
when we will see privacy standards established and published. This should not be necessary, but many people
believe that it is. It is not too much to say that the
government will not shirk its duty in this regard.
As for individuality, again computers can be the key to
the individually-tailored service or product. Yet, we do not
see a widespread attempt to use computers in this fashion.
Again, I think that the future health of the computer
industry depends upon successful attempts in this direction.
Disquieting Performance in Foreign Trade
Malevolent Effects of Technology
A similar situation exists in foreign trade. Here again our
index of performance as a nation is disquieting. We have
seen our foreign trade balance dwindle to about $1 billion
out of about $40 billion of total exports. We do best in
high technology products; we run a large deficit in laborintensive products. This story is also undoubtedly wellknown, but again a close examination of the anatomy of
the problem indicates that many of our manufacturing
industries cannot compete because of (1) the differential· in
wage rates and (2) antiquated plant. Here again computers
can provide a way of overcoming the differential, but there
are the difficulties in gaining the necessary rapport with
traditional industries. The labor unions as well look with
some suspicion on computers. Solving this set of problems
in a humanitarian and effective way is a real challenge to
the computer community.
I feel strongly about all these matters because we as
scien tists and engineers are getting clear signals from the
public about the malevolent effects of technolorr. ~s y~u
know, computers are in the forefront of people s mmds ill
this regard; This syndrome has led some to conclude that
there is a strong wave of anti-technology overtaking us.
They point to the vote on the supersonic transport and to
environmental extremism and other supposed evidences. It
is easy to identify some people who are negative about
technology. There are some highly-respected people such as
Lewis Mumford and Marshall McLuhan whose utterances
range from rational attacks on rationality to extolling the
irrational and occult. Movements in this spirit can succeed
at times, particularly when we as a community show our
technological teeth rather than displaying our human values but overall I find no wave of anti-technology in the
exe~utive or legislative branches. In fact, quite the opposite.
I find people in responsible positions very receptive to
responsible proposals for advancing science and technology.
Improving the Quality of Life
So far I have been talking about using computers to
improve the performance of our economy and our economic situation in the world. But the nation requires also
that computers be used to improve the quality of life. Here
one can think of many possible applications, but the one
that appeals to me the most lies in the areas of privacy and
individuality.
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for September, 1971
Collisions re Energy Supply
The President's recent energy message to Congress is an
interesting case in point. His message confronts the collision
between environmental values and energy supply. The
13
solution he proposes is a pluralistic one based on research
and development aimed at new technology. The nuclear
breeder reactor is the centerpiece of the new effort because
it today holds. the greatest near-term promise for the
generation of clean energy. Recognizing that other technologies will be needed, however, the President has proposed
two other initiatives related to recovery of clean energy
from fossil fuels. In addition, he has asked me to evaluate
longer-range possibilities, among them fusion power and
solar power.
It is interesting and significant that this energy message
was, as nearly as I can determine, the first message from a
President to a Congress whose thrust was an R&D effort
aimed at solving a national problem. I hope and.expect that
this is but the first of many others to follow, and it seems
clear to me that computers must play an important role in
many of them.
Presidential Message on Computers
A criterion of success for ambition to "communicate
about computers" is this: success will be achieved when
there is a Presidential message recognizing computing as a
resource to solve national problems. Unfortunately, we are
not close to this result at present.
In fact, in my office's forthcoming annual report on
science and technology, there is no chapter on computing.
Of course, computing is referred to in other chapters.
What should such a chapter say if there were to be one?
The report is intended to be a report to the Congress and
the nation at large. The standard format we have adopted is
first a recital of significant accomplishments; second, exposure of the issues confronting the field; and finally a
projection of the possibilities for resolving them, coupled
with a discussion of the attendant policies. I invite computer people to write to me concretely about this matter.
Communicating to the Public About Computers
It is necessary to communicate with the public so that
computers become more acceptable and less frightening to
them. It is necessary to gain the participation of people
whose lives and jobs will be affected by computers, if they
are to accept computers and if they are to use them wisely
and effectively. Many opportunities exist for the infusion
of computing into the service and manufacturing industries.
In fact, I believe this infusion is a necessity if productivity
and our foreign trade are to be kept healthy.
In addition, as computers become more and more a part
of our society, the reliability of both hardware and software must be geared to avoid human tragedies. Computers
must be used to protect people's privacy and to insure their
individuality.
Changing the Image of Computers
We all have an awesome task to convert the image of
computers from the image of an unwelcome intruder and a
disagreeable agent of change; to the image of a benevolent
helper and resource for our country. Changing this image
will require the computing community to communicate
about ·computers in ways which it has not done before.
In addition, there must be communication within the
computer community to increase its level of professionalism and its responsibility for its own impact on society. 0
14
Ernst - Continued from page 11
and other institutions make increasing use of electronic
records. We already have cases where records were destroyed by mistake or were lost; a small mutual fund, for
example, has had the embarrassment of having to write its
customers to find out how many shares they owned! No
system is perfect in reliability; and no matter what steps we
take, sooner or later there are going to be errors and
failures. As we build bigger systems and become more
dependent on them, we faced increased vulnerability. The
size of the largest organization in a given field of endeavor
tends to approach the maximum that is manageable. The
use of the computer increases the manageable size of a
company; but it also increases the vulnerability of that
company if something happens to the computer.
Sabotage
There is also the question of sabotage. It is probably no
accident that quite a number of efforts of the radical left
and students in their bombing attempts, building seizures
and such, have involved computer systems. We are not too
vulnerable now, but in the future these actions can cause
far greater difficulties.
Industrial Espionage
In addition to straightforward sabotage, I think we have
to look forward to problems of increased industrial espionage. If it is known that a company bases its marketing
plans very heavily on a simulation it has developed, the
simulation itself can become a target for a competitor. And
it is not too difficult in normal situations to arrange for the
disappearance of a program or the disappearance of input
data from most of our current computer systems.
More Filtering of Data for Decision Making
Finally, we face the fact that management itself will
become more vulnerable in its decision-making:' As we use
more complex decision-making tools, and as we rely more
heavily on large data banks, there will be more flltering of
information by management staffs before materials for
decisions are presented to the senior management. Even
today, I feel that a large fraction of the decisions of senior
managers are not made by them. They are forced on them
by the selectivity of their staffs in providing data and in
presenting arguments. As the staffs grow bigger and the
data base more complex, the ftltering mechanism will
expand and senior managers will find it more difficult to
exercise effective personal control.
Business Will Suffer from Failures to Deal with Problems
In this brief review, I have described some of the
problems of computers I have encountered in a variety of
work for business, universities and governmental organizations. The list is obviously not complete. Though the
examples range from fairly trivial to moderately serious, all
are characterized by the fact that they will become far more
extensive and very likely far more dangerous as our use of
computers broadens. At the moment, these problems don't
hurt us very much. I don't believe they will be painless for
much longer, however, and I do believe businessmen have
an important responsibility for helping solve these problems. If they do not, business will certainly be among the
first groups to suffer from our failure to deal with them. 0
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for September, 1971
SECURITY IN ON-LINE SYSTEMSA Primer for Management
"How about the clandestine intruder who . .. through illegal or unauthorized
access at a remote terminal, steals or manipulates your data? ... Or brief power
failures that leave you with a three-day recovery problem? .. How does one
secure his system to prevent such occurrences?"
Richard A. Hirschfield
Computer Audit Systems, Inc.
725 Park Ave.
E. Orange, N.J. 07017
This article concerns "on-line computer systems" breeds of computer systems replete with central processors
and terminals in a myriad of configurations. Little attempt
has been made to distinguish the differences in security
requirements for various types of on-line systems, such as
on-line batch dial-up, dedicated real-time inquiry, etc.
Rather, the approach here is generic; it is concerned with
the inherent problems whenever you attach a terminal
outside of your data center to your central processor and
thus expose your data files to remote access.
Richard A. Hirschfield is Executive Vice President of
Computer Audit Systems, a firm specializing in computer
security, EDP auditing and related fields, where he has
responsibility for product development, training, and on-line
computer security. He has over a decade of experience in the
planning and installation of data processing equipment and
software, and is a frequent speaker before management
groups.
Mr. Hirschfield is a graduate of Rutgers University with a
B.A. degree, and served for four years on active 'duty in the
U.S. Air Force, specializing in the installation and operation
of ICBM computer guidance systems.
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for September, 1971
Just for a moment, visualize your computer center. Is it
well situated? secured with badge lock controls, magnetic
detectors, automatic fire alarm systems and other similar
physical security devices? If the answer is yes, and we hope
it is, is it a secure installation? Probably quite secure against
a frontal assault.
But how about the clandestine intruder who does not
steal a tape but, through illegal or unauthorized access at a
remote terminal, steals or manipulates your data? Even
worse, do you even know this happened until your stockholders list shows up in the hands of a firm selling cancer
cures by mail? Or how about just simple accidents that can
clobber your data files? Or brief power failures that leave
you with a three-day recovery problem and a system that's
out of balance by four transactions, but no one knows
which ones; or by $4,000 and no one knows why.
Well, enough of the potential. The question is how does
one secure his system to prevent such occurrences? We
believe the control problem can be viewed as having four
dimensions:
1. Preventing illegal or unauthorized access to the
computer and its data files and programs.
2. Control over data transferred from remote locations to the central computer.
3. Back-up and recovery systems for the computer
complex.
15
4. System auditability system.
the ability to audit the
Access Control
Access control is an area which requires early and
comprehensive evaluation. The umbrella of security which
is inherent in computer and file access can only provide
adequate protection if the structure of the system itself will
allow the appropriate access control mechanisms to function. Thus, proper security cannot be built in after the
system is built. Security must be an integral part of the
systems planning, for as in any construction, the architectural scheme must be determined before the first brick is
laid.
Security in on-line systems begins at the same point as in
self-contained, non-terminal systems - with the physical
security of the installation. In the case we are considering,
however, a new dimension is added: physical security must
be extended to the outlying terminal locations, for they
may be rightly viewed as your first line of defense. Not
only must access to them be controlled, but the materials
associated with their use must be carefully handled, for
these materials can be a valuable source of information for
someone aspiring to enter your system on an unauthorized
basis using legal codes and procedures. These physical
control functions, however, are straightforward. They are
similar to practices already in existence if your data center
is well controlled; so we will not dwell on them here.
Rather, we wish to concentrate on those areas of security
more directly pertinent to on-line systems.
First, appoint someone to be responsible for the security
provisions of the system. To extend a previous metaphor,
he is the architect and the contracting engineer for systems
security. He should be one person, reporting at a high
enough level to insure that proper attention is given to
essential security matters. Ideally, he should have the
experience of a senior systems analyst or programmer, the
tenacity of a skeptical auditor, and the patience of Job.
For, let me warn you, security provisions are easily discarded. They are expensive, time-consuming to implement
and process, and in general, a pain in the neck to the
systems developers. So pick a good man and give him the
responsibility and the authority to back up that responsibility. Give him the tools sufficient to impede hasty and
ill-conceived systems decisions affecting security.
All right, we are physically secure. We have a security
manager who is qualified and ready to do his job. What
next? The answer is so simple it is often not done. We
examine the problem; the data, the files, the needs of the
user, from the viewpoint· of how can we minimize the
security problem before we begin. There are several things
that can be done to secure a system before the fmal design
ever begins. Among them:
1. To the extent possible restrict the number and
location of terminals and the categories of system
users.
2. Don't put sensitive data into files that will be
available to terminal users unless the data is absolutely essential.
3. Establish and maintain a system to purge unneeded data from the files periodically. Aside from
being a generally good practice in any systems
deSign, the periodic purging of unnecessary data
will lessen security requirements. It will also tend
16
to have a corollary benefit in certain types of
organizations, i.e. the protection of the individual's right to privacy by not storing, in an accessible and manipulative form, extraneous and gratuitous information about that individual. Public
pressures will make the question of protection of
individual rights in computer systems a crucial area
of concern to systems designers in the future, and
rightly so. Attention to this area now may preclude many headaches later. However, this consideration has broad implications which are not the
subject of this article, so we will not dwell on it
here.
Let us then assume we have taken the pre-design steps to
insure that unnecessary sensitive data will not complicate
our control needs and the number of users and terminals
are restricted by the basic principles of the right and need
to know.
What next? First, we need a system for controlling
access to the computer from remote terminals. Such systems are usually called password control systems. In their
most basic form they insure that an authorized terminal
and user is requesting access to the system. In dial-up
systems this requires entry of a terminal and user code. In
directly connected terminals only the user code may be
necessary. The problem of access, however, is complicated
by the necessity of being more selective than simply the
granting or refUSing of access. For example, files containing
sensitive information cannot be available to all persons
having general access to the system. Thus, a comprehensive
password system may contain several levels of access information such as terminal identifiers and user codes which
identify the individual and his access classification. The
access classification code may, in turn, simply delineate the
data files that are available to that individual and/or
terminal or may be much more complex; restricting readwrite access on ea<;:h file or making individual fields or
groups of fields on a data file inaccessible.
The determination of the type of access restrictions is
based on several factors. Among them are:
a) The nature of the data - Obviously, access to
sensitive data such as marketing planning information, stockholder lists, customer information and
the like must be more strictly controlled than your
inventory of office furniture.
b) The structure of the data files - For example, files
which have data of similar security classification
stored independently are normally less costli to
secure than files imbedded with a varying level of
sensitivity. The former allows record level control
while the latter may preclude it.
c) The cost of security - Generally, as the level of
control becomes more discreet, i.e. moves toward
the field level, the cost of security goes up rapidly.
The cost being measured in terms of computer
storage required, processing time for security measures, implementation costs and, often overlooked,
the cost of maintaining, utilizing and verifying the
security measures.
We should note that we are discussing only data which is
stored in a record structure. For list structures and other
non-record formats, the parameters of the relationship of
security level to cost will be the same although the method
of measurement may be greatly different.
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for September, 1971
So, we have planned ahead "and designed cost-effective
access controls into our system and have assured a secure
physical environment. We are on the way to a secure on-line
system, but the path is still long and difficult. Let's look at
another factor to be considered: the transfer of data from
the terminals to the central processor.
Data Transfer Controls
Several levels of controls are necessary in data transfer.
The most common are the familiar terminal and line
checking features such as horizontal and vertical parity, bit
counts and sequential message numbering. All of these are
important and should be used where appropriate; but for
our purposes we need to cover some less familiar yet
potentially critical data transfer controls, i.e., computer
logs, encrypting of data and closed loop verification.
Computer Logs
In an on-line system a complete computer log should be
kept of every terminal and operator access to the system.
The log will record the time of access, the terminal number
and user password, the purpose of the access and other
information deemed pertinent. It must be maintained on a
"real-time" basis and information printed out from it
periodically for review and analysis. Items of special interest, such as attempts to gain access to fIles with illegal
passwords or unusual halts, should be flagged for frequent
investigation by the security officer. In addition, in dial-up
systems, a user requesting access with an illegal password
should be allowed a few erroneous attempts to allow for
honest error, and then be bumped from the system. This
will be a serious deterrent to the casual interloper who is
trying to figure out your password system through trial and
error. Such system-generated terminations should be items
for follow-up action for they might be the first and perhaps
only indication of an attempted illegal access.
Closed-Loop Verification
In addition to the log, we recommend strongly the use
of closed loop verification to insure that all data transmitted to the system has been received as transmitted. This
positive confirmation, transmitted from the computer to
the terminal contains the message number, the time of day,
and a character or bit count which should correspond to
the character and bit count transmitted. This method
assures that no data has been lost in transmission and
facilitates recovery in case of system failure (a subject
which will be covered later in this article). A similar
technique can be used in processing. If each item of update
input data is viewed as a trigger for certain processing steps,
then positive verification can indicate that the data has
passed preselected points and the appropriate files have
been affected. As part of the normal back-up-restart pattern, a predetermined level of closed loop control points
will be necessary.
Encrypting of Data
Another method of data transfer security, encrypting of
data, is not designed to prevent loss due to transmission
error, but to prevent theft of sensitive data during transmission. All public lines are subject to being electronically
monitored without the user's knowledge. Even private lines
are not completely secure and microwave may prove to be
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for September, 1971
the least secure of all. Thus, when sensitive data is transmitted, the user must realize that through a concentrated
effort on the part of a malicious intruder, this data can be
obtained. If the data is sensitive enough, the only recourse
is to encrypt it. The use of encrypting is growing among
many companies who transmit confidential data and of
course is heavily used by the U.S. government. Many users
have even begun encrypting the actual data files in the
computer for maximum security.
Back-up and Recovery from Systems Failure
The functions that have been built into the on-line
system for control and security purposes are essential for
recovery in case of systems failure. The combination of
computer logs, back-up files and closed-loop verification
provide a dynamic status which is necessary if the user is to
restart the system with minimum loss of time and money.
Without such controls, transactions may be mishandled,
processed twice or even lost. The subject of back-up
systems is one which assumes critical importance in an
on-line environment. Often the applications processed and
their immediacy do not allow the system to be down for
any extended period of time. Depending on the criticalness
of the processing, on-line systems may have to be duplexed
or in some cases even triplexed to assure an uninterrupted
flow of processing. However, an often overlooked point, is
that if the user is to go to this expense and difficulty he
must also consider the back-up requirements of his power
supply, air conditioning, etc., and provide proper switching
mechanisms to assure that back-up transfer can be effected
when necessary.
Back-up of data files and programs is another consideration. How often do you want to copy these files? The
answer will be determined by the nature of the applications
and the restart requirements determined by management.
For inquiry fIles, perhaps a daily back-up for fIles is
enough. For files that are being updated by transactions
during the day, perhaps the updated records should be
duplicated concurrently with the update cycle. In this way,
if the master file is destroyed, the back-up fIle (which can
be physically protected), in conjunction with the back-up
master with which processing began, can be used to quickly
recreate the master up through the last transaction processed. The question again is one of cost weighed against
the nature of your business and the structure and criticality
of the application(s).
System Auditability
If you have implemented the appropriate security measures outlined in this article, or similar effective measures
you should be feeling quite secure and rightly so, for, to the
extent possible, you have prevented accidental or malicious
intrusion into your system. All right then, publish your
security procedures. Describe them. Tell in detail the
security measures in effect. Let it all hang out. If the
security system can't stand scrutiny, it will not be effective,
for in one way or another it will be scrutinized. For
example, a basic design criteria of sophisticated encrypting
systems is that, even if you have available a message in its
"clear" and encrypted forms you cannot determine the
encryption formula. Thus, a second encrypted' message
would be untranslatable and useless to you. So, open your
security system up. Let it be audited. It will stand or fall on
its power to withstand knowledge of its internal workings.
(Please turn to page 25 )
17
THE JAPANESE C'OM,PUTER MARKET CHA:RACTE!RISTICS ADVERSELY AFFECTING
U.S. TRA:DE INTEIRESTS
Part Two
"A number of measures, legal in nature, are enforced by the Japanese
Government in order to reduce the impact of foreign competition,
mainly Us., on the domestic manufacturers. These measures include
restrictions, licensing, tariffs, and quota control and all serve to ex-owned Japanese-based compu ter
clude imports and discourage
manufacturing operations. "
us.
Stephen T. McClellan
108 Sagamore Rd.
Tuckahoe, N. Y. 10707
Part One of this article, which appeared in the
August issue, discussed Japan's efforts to give financial assistance to domestic computer manufacturers.
This has been accomplished through two semi-governmental organizations: the Ministry of International
Trade and Industry (MITI) and the Japan Electronic
Computer Company (JECC). The MITI subsidizes the
computer industry and coordinates the industry's
work through "administrative guidance." The JECC is
a leasing firm that gives capital to computer manufacturers by renting computers at many times the rental
fee.
Japan Development Bank
The Japan Development Bank (JDB) lends money to
JECC at 7.5%. This subsidized interest rate is quite competitive to U.S. computer firms in Japan. JDB's funds
however are not unlimited especially in light of the fact
that Japanese firms are all heavily debt financed (80-90%)
rather than equity financed. Thus there is great demand for
capital in Japanese industry and JECC receives only a
limited amount. Because of JECC's capital constraints in
the face of increased computer leasing business, the organization was forced to reject some computer manufacturer's leasing and installment selling contracts for the first
time in 1969. JECC's share of the computer rental and
installment sales market thus fell somewhat.
Under MITI and JECC are other quasi-governmental
bodies whose specific financial activities aid Japanese computer manufacturers at the expense of U;S. computer
vendors in Japan.
for the development of advanced software and data information. Loans are also extended to JECC for the purchase
of software. Terms are 6 years including a two year grace
period at 6.5% interest per annum. The amount of the loans
ranges from $6.7 to $22 million annually. In addition to
financing software development this organization also purchases privately developed software and leases it out to
users much like JECC does computers.
Japan Electronic I ndustry Development Association
The Japan Electronic Industry Development Association
(JEIDA) is a government supported organization comprised
of the leading Japanese manufacturers of electronic equipment. Its purpose is mainly that of educational and research
coordination in order to further rationalize the industry.
The Government gives limited financial support to the
group and thus stimulates Japanese international competitiveness by improving manufacturing and market techniques, and developing new and improved equipment. 7
Other Bodies
In addition to the previously described organizations
there are several other groups which receive government
financial, manpower, and advisory support. These include
the Electronic Computer Usage Development Corp. (promotes computer usage), the Information Processing Development Center (trains systems engineers and programmers),
and the System Technology Development Center (develops
sophisticated software packages). All of these organizations
give the Japanese computer industry a competitive advantage over the U.S. computer interests in Japan. A major
factor in the viability of these organizations is the Government financial support.
I nformation Processing Promotion Corporation
Financial Controls
The Information Processing Promotion Corporation is an
organization which promotes Japanese data processing
firms by extending loans, on liberal terms, to general
business companies, service firms, and software developers
A number of measures, legal in nature, are enforced by
the Japanese Government in order to reduce the impact of
foreign competition, mainly U.S., on the domestic computer manufacturers. These measures include restrictions,
18
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for September, 1971
Table 3
Effect of Japanese Import Restrictions on U. S. Computer Exports in 1967*
(All Data = $ OOO's)
Country
A
714.2005
Electronic computers,
digital, including
process control computers
U. S. Exports 1967
B
A+B
714.2010
Electronic computers,
not elsewhere classified
including process
control computers
Gross domestic
fixed c api tal
formation*
A+B
C
%
.029
.016
.018
.010
.014
152,545
77,645,000
.01964
38,877
37,765,000
.01029
14,215
11,726
33,575
8,425
963
49,513
47,340
51,038
38,877
4,654
205,947
107,446
313,393
United Kingdom)
France
)
West Germany)
Rep. SAF
)
92,066
60,479
Japan
30,452
8,425
Total U. S. Exports
Ratio
17,196,000
28,800,000
28,500,000
37,765,000
3,149,000
35,298
35,614
17,463
30,452
3,691
United Kingdom
France
West Germany
Japan
Rep. SAF
C
.00935
Estimated U. S. Trade Loss in 1967 = .00935 X $37,765,000 = $35,310,000.
*United Nations, Monthly Bulletin of Statistics, June 1969, pp. 189-195.
licensing, tariffs, and quota control and all serve to exclude
imports and discourage U.S. owned Japanese-based compu ter manufacturing operations.
Quantitative restrictions are imposed on imported computers in accordance with the Japanese Negative LiSt. 12
Such a restriction limits the quantity of U.S. computers by
type that can be imported into Japan. Further restriction
comes in the form of required MITI authorization to bring
in operating capital, open branch offices to engage in
importing and direct selling, and be assured of repatriation
of earnings. This actlon falls under the Foreign Investment
Law of 1950 and as a result, because of consistent opposition from MITI, few U.S. computer firms have been
authorized to engage in direct sales of computers.
The effect of Japan's import restrictions on U.S. exports
of computers may be roughly estimated by comparing the
ratio of U.S. computer exports over gross domestic fixed
capital formation in Japan, to that ratio in other comparable markets. The amount by which this ratio is lower in
Japan than it is in other markets may be attributed to the
effect of Japan's restrictions.
An estimated U.S. trade loss in computers of
$35,310,000 in 1967 is derived by taking the ratio (A+B)/C
for the United Kingdom, France, West Germany, and the
Rep. of South Africa (.01964) and subtracting (A+B)/C for
Japan (.01029) and multiplying the difference (.00935)
times Japan's gross domestic fixed capital formation
($37,765,000,000), C. This calculation is shown in Table 3.
The result, a $35 million opportunity cost to the U.S.,
reveals the effectiveness of the Japanese restrictions. U.S.
trade interests have suffered accordingly.
Another financial control is the import licensing requirement. Computers cannot be imported into Japan unless the
import is approved by MITI. All importers must submit to
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for September, 1971
MITI import application forms that carry an attachment
requiring, among other things, the name of the end-user of
the imported computer. End-users normally are asked by
MIT I to justify their purchases' of imported equipment. At
times, pressure to use domestic equipment is applied and
financial backing is arranged to permit purchase from a
domestic firm. Domestic manufacturers are notified of the
potential sale so that they may compete for the business.
The net result of this arbitrary system of import licensing is
that the domestic computer manufacturing industry is given
a high degree of protection. 13
Japan places comparatively high tariffs on imported
computers and related equipment. The rate for computers
is 15%, input-output peripheral equipment 25%, and integrated circuits 15%.14 This compares to the U.S. duty on
these items of 10%. While other countries are reducing the
duty rates on such commodities as computers in conjunction with the Kennedy Round talks, Japan retains the high
tariff rate. The Common Market countries (EEC) for
example, are reducing tariff rates on imported computers to
7% by 1972.
Meanwhile the U.S. has forcefully argued with the
Japanese Government to reduce the restrictions on U.S.
computer imports, thus far without material success. Formal talks commenced in May 1969 between the Secretary
of Commerce and the Japanese and were followed up by a
Cabinet level bilateral discussion in July 1969 and an
Assistant Secretary of Commerce presentation in October
1969. 15 The U.S. Embassy in Tokyo has continued the plea
since.
Japan's six leading computer manufacturers have petitioned their government and business leaders to exclude
computers from the import liberalization list scheduled to
be completed in fiscal 1972. 16 This action was a result of
19
the Government's consideration to liberalize small-scale
computers by 1972. The Japanese have been all promises so
far and no action. Summer 1970 is presently promised as
the time to expect Japanese announcement of her intentions concerning this matter. Import restrictions such as
these are illegal under the GATT Agreement to which Japan
is a participant. A further problem is the U.S. Government's
lack of support by the major U.S. computer producers in
convincing the Japanese to liberalize. This is due to fears
that if forced to remove restrictions the Japanese will
retaliate by tightening the screws even tighter on the U.S.
producers' subsidiary operations in Japan.
U.S. Advantage: Japanese Incurring Problems
Despite the determined effort to stimulate the domestic
computer industry at the expense of U.S. trade interests the
Japanese computer manufacturers are still incurring financial problems. None of the firms are making a profit on
their computer operations. Sales volume is too low to cover
costs. MITI is attempting to reduce the industry's costs by
urging more specialization and restricting the number of
models. Aggregate savings accruing from this effort, however, may not be enough.
Japanese computer firms presently spend little money
on research and development. Expenditures are woefully
inadequate because stockholders are not willing to invest
substantial funds in this field which may not yield large and
early dividends. Thus a technology gap exists between U.S.
and Japanese computers. All but one Japanese computer
manufacturer are dependent on U.S. firms for technology.
The dependency is in the form of license agreements.
Export expansion into the international market is, according to the Japanese, the means by which to increase sales
volume, become profitable, and undertake R&D so as to
break the ties with U.S. firms and become competitive. This
indeed is beginning to take place as Japanese computer
exports are appearing in Europe, United States, and the
Soviet Union.
Conclusion
Mr. Kaoru Ando, president of Fujitsu Facom, Ltd.,
Japan's leading computer manufacturer, admits the Japan
Government financially fosters the domestic computer industry. In explaining the basis for such policies he states,
"the key word is government guidance." He further explains, "Japan's computer industry, like any other of its
growth industries, receives government protection from
foreign interests and from excessive competition from
domestic circles." I 7
This reveals the philosophical belief which underlies the
concerted guidance and support effort being directed at the
Japanese computer industry by the Japanese Government
at the expense of U.S. computer firms. The practice is
thorough and effective. It is mainly centered around financial supports, controls, and barriers. Being faced with such
competition the U.S. has voiced opposition but nothing
more. Presently the situation is a standoff. MITI may have
enough power to harass IBM out of Japan, but IBM could
cripple the budding Japanese computer industry by withholding IBM patent licenses. I8 Both governments have too
much at stake to directly confront one another. In the
meanwhile, the U.S. computer vendors are losing much
potential business and being kept out of a lucrative computer market by unfair, unilateral practices.
20
What will be the fate of U.S. computer vendors in the
Japanese market? Speculation on the future suggests gradual liberalization but only after Japanese manufacturers are
totally capable of competing on equal terms with U.S.
manufacturers. By this time it will be too late for the U.S.
to benefit from such liberalization. It will be like the
Japanese competing with IBM in the U.S. market. U.S.
firms will not be able to match the Japanese computer
firms' advantages in their own market.
The decade of the 70's will find the Japan Government
investing more heavily in the domestic computer industry.
"Such investments must be made in conjunction with what
is determined to be the most effective schedule for progress
after due consideration of the special governmental, economic, and social features of the country.,,19
The direction in which the Japanese Government will
head is evidenced by the proposed course of action as
stated in the Computer Usage Development Institute's
White Paper of 1969. 8
(1) That the Government should actively aid in the
establishment of local and specialized data
banks ...
(2) That the Government should aid in the research
and development of the hardware and software
necessary for time sharing at private research
laboratories through the granting of substantial
funds.
(3) That the Government should take special measures
against inroads by foreign enterprises into the
information industry until Japan's industry has
reached a certain level of independence.
Obviously, much of the adverse development and control actions will be financial in nature. Whether it be due to
financial aid to develop the domestic computer industry or
financial restrictions to repel U.S. sales efforts, Japanese
market penetration by U.S. computer vendors will be
increasingly difficult in the future.
D
Footnotes
1. Japan Times. Oct. 30, 1969
2. State Dept. Tokyo Airgram A-43, Jan. 16, 1970
3. Sandra DiGioia, "Computers," Chase Manhattan Bank, Economic Research
4. State Dept. Tokyo Airgram A-2290, Dec. 6, 1969
5. Sherman R. Abrahamson, "The Manufacture of Computers in
Japan," Dept. of State Case Study. 1969, p. 8
6. State Dept. Tokyo Airgram A-710, July 28, 1969
7. State Dept. Tokyo Airgram A-2290, Dec. 6, 1968
8. Ibid
9. Computer White Paper. Japan Computer Usage Development
Institute, 1969, p. 10
10. Electronic News. June 15, 1970, p. 32
11. "Japanese Courting Foreign EDP Sales," Electronic News. Apr.
13,1970, p. 27
12. Business Machines in Japan. 1962-67. U.S. Department of
Commerce OBR 68-88, Dec. 1968
13. Sherman Abrahamson, "The Manufacture of Computers in
Japan," Dept. of State Case Study. 1969, p. 7
14. U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Kennedy Round Special Report. Feb.
1970,p.12
15. "Japan Resists U.S. Efforts to Ease EDP Import Restrictions,"
Electronic News. Feb. 23, 1970, p. 21
16. "Don't Ease Computer Imports," Electronic News. Apr. 6,
1970,p.44
17. "Japanese Courting Foreign EDP Sales," Electronic News. Apr.
13, 1970, p. 27
18. "Japan's Computer Industry -- Wait Till 1980," Forbes. Dec.
15, 1969, p. 37
19. Computer White Paper. Japan Computer Usage Development
Institute, 1969,p. 81
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for September, 1971
INFORMATION SYSTEMS IN URBAN GOVERNMENTS
"In the past, municipal functions were separated to make manual record
keeping tasks manageable. With the availability of ADP, it makes little sense
to sus~-ain this situation. Systems analysis reveals that ADP technology
demands a more sensible integration of these functions. So what we are
talking about is not the integration of information systems, but rather the
integration and reorganization of basic municipal functions themselves. "
t
Dr. Robert Keston
Keston Associates
11317 Old Club Road
Rockville, Md. 20852
The purpose of this article is to summarize the current
status of Automatic Data Processing (ADP) in local government and to project several major themes for future
development. The broader topic of information systems
will be considered as the principal element of management
in public administration. Information is, in fact, the major
element and a primary commodity in local government, for
local government does not produce physical products in the
industrial sense. The local administrator deals with a massive flow of information concerning public finance, the
physical environment, and the community which he serves.
The Current State of Affairs
Based on our observations over the past four years, the
current state of affairs in local government in regard to
ADP can be summarized as follows:
1. Computers have penetrated extensively into local
government; in particular, small municipalities in
the range of 10,000 to 50,000 population are
introducing ADP at an increasing pace.
2. ADP development is generally insular in nature,
with little transfer of experience and poor communications.
3. Public administrators generally have a meager
knowledge of computer technology and are often
unwilling to be exposed to educational opportunities.
4. ADP utilization is highly constrained by political,
economic, legal, inter-governmental and traditional considerations.
5. The majority of local government users are led
blindly by ADP "sophisticates" and the many
special economic interests in the field including
vendors of hardware, software, education, and
services.
6. Some cities, counties, and municipalities have
made significant strides in the effective utilization
of ADP, and have demonstrated the feasibility and
effectiveness of such advanced technology when
properly applied.
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for September, 1971
Dr. Robert Keston, President of Keston Associates, is a consultant on urban information systems.
He has prepared comprehensive training programs on
Automatic Data Processing (ADP) for local government administrators, and the planning and evaluation
techniques which he has developed are currently
being used in major urban areas.
Dr. Keston received his A.B. degree in Philosophy
and his Ph.D. in Experimental Psychology at New
York University. His doctoral dissertation in the field
of human color vision was based on analysis which
explored computer capabilities for correlating
psychophysiological data.
His professional memberships include the Urban
and Regional Information Systems Association, the
Association for Computer Machinery, and the Society
for Information Displays.
Areas of Concern
On the basis of this state of affairs, we see three major
areas of concern regarding the development and social
impact of ADP in urban society.
Fir,st, the effective utilization of advanced technology
will result in far-reaching changes in the management,
politics, organization and procedure in local government.
The thesis that information system technology is merely a
service function which supports or replaces manual procedures on a one-for-one basis while carefully sustaining the
status quo is a great myth. Data processing technology, in
order to be effectively utilized, must become an integral
part of the basic administrative processes rather than an
awkward encumbrance. Recognition of this sometimes
painful fact will enhance the ability of administrators to
cope with the situation, and to use it to their advantage. We
recommend the concept of "enlightened self-interest" as a
management attitude toward automation.
Second, there is a pressing need for a concerted attack
on urban problems through the close coordination of
diverse but related public administration services including
21
welfare, health, housing, recreation, education, etc.; ADP
technology can facilitate this effort by making available
comprehensive information on the socio-economic status of
the community and by facilitating evaluation of the effectiveness of social programs.
Third, a "clearinghouse" is needed for the sharing of
local government ADP capabilities and reduction of the
"re-invention of the wheel," so common in this field.
ADP Penetration
According to a 1970 survey conducted by the International City Management Association (lCMA)l , there are
844 municipalities in the U.S. known to have computer
installations or TAB equipment. This represents a growth of
213% over the estimate of 270 installations in 1967. Total
expenditures for ADP in 1970 were estimated to be about
$70,550,000. Annual ADP budgets had a mean value of
$225,367 in 1970 compared to $53,000 in 1967. The range
was $1,000 to $6,164,000 in 1970 compared to $1,500 to
$3,900,000 in 1967. (See Figure 1.) However, it should be
emphasized that only 1,562 of 3,303 municipalities responded, and no assumptions can be properly made concerning the use of ADP in the remainder.
Central ization
ADP has generally been implemented on a fragmentary
departmental basis, resulting in incompatible sub-systems
and a lack of broad socio-economic data on urban localities.
However, a strong trend toward centralization has been
fostered primarily by economic considerations. In 1967,
Surveyed - 3,303 Cities; 1,562 Responded
Finance ~partment - in 70% of the localities, although
14% of them had separate ADP departments.
The current trend is toward departmental systems.
Finance, public utilities and personnel are the most common; planning, public works and police are intermediate;
social services are rare. Finance usually represents the most
obvious use of ADP and can most often produce real dollar
savings. Law enforcement, public utilities and education
most often justify and maintain separate ADP facilities due
to special requirements and frequent jurisdictional independence.
Data Banks
The Urban Planning function most often demands comprehensive information concerning the community as a
whole. This demand cuts across functional lines and encompasses real-property, health, welfare, police and other data.
To meet this need there is a growing trend toward the
development of urban "data banks." They are usually
independent of departmental operations, based on one-time
surveys, and rarely maintained current and up-to-date.
Consequently, the data are static, the costs are excessive
and difficult to justify (for planning alone), utilization is
often low, and effective information retrieval and display
techniques are frequently lacking.
Because of the fundamental role of maps in urban
administration, a strong trend has developed toward the
"Geographically-Oriented Urban Data Base" concept. This
technique involves the relation of diverse urban data to
maps by means of coordinate indexing using digitizing
devices. The advantages include: a common denominator
correlating urban data; geo-retrieval; potential for graphics
display; and socio-economic indicators. (See Figure 2.)
844 or 21% Used ADP in Municipal Operations
Costs
Municipal Use of ADP
PO:Qulation
No. of Cities
Over 250K
100-250K
50-lOOK
25- 50K
10- 25K
Totals
54
96
232
477
1213
3303
1962
31-58%
37-38%
39-13%
30- 6%
28- 2%
178- 5%
1965
30-55%
37-38%
46-20%
67-14%
180- 8%
1968
38-70%
48-50%
50-25%
70-15%
57- 5%
272- 8%
1970
45-83%
76-79%
147-63%
226-47%
242-20%
844-26%
Annual ADP Budgets in 1970
Population
Over 500K
250-500K
100-250K
50-lOOK
25- 50K
No. of Cities
27
27
96
232
477
~
Medium
High
$115,000
31,000
5,000
1,000
1,000
$1,755,158
507,954
209,431
80,478
43,478
$6,164,000
1,595,000
990,000
364,000
480,000
Figure 1 - Survey of ADP in Municipal Government
June, 1970 - I.C.M.A.
81.7% of 246 "automated" cities had implemented hardware centralization; 41.9% were developing functional applications for single departments, 9.4% had interdepartmental "data banks," and 11.8% claimed a "Management
Information System (MIS)" approach.2 Problems encountered in centralization include sacrifice in responsiveness to users and the batch processing "bottleneck".
Management responsibility for ADP was found to be in the
22
The acquisition of a computer installation will almost
invariably create more administrative problems and costs
than will be resolved for the first several years. The
computer hardware is only one source of expense; to this
must be added facilities, installation, personnel, supplies,
software, consulting services, etc. Inadequate selection
decisions and lack of planning at tIns point can result in
disastrous future results.
As an example, a small IBM System/360 Model 30
would lease for about $12,000 per month or $144,000 for
the first year. To this must be added various supporting
services. On the average the basic hardware costs of
$144,000 must be supplemented with $190,000 in the first
year, a ratio of 1.3 to 1, for a total budget of $334,000.
(See Figure 3.) Of course, smaller installations can provide
useful results, and some of these costs will be reduced in
future years.
A minimum budget for an effective in-house ADP
installation would probably be about $100,000 per year,
would more likely average about $350,000 and can readily
approach $1,000,000. Therefore, questions of economic
feasibility become highly relevant and consideration of
automation alternatives such as a service-bureau, timesharing or shared facilities become crucial.
Expenditures for ADP usually range from 0.4% to 2.0%
of total budgets, with an average around 1.0%. (See Figure
4.) In many cases, however, the adequacy of the percent is
questionable.
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for September, 1971
No.
Agency
1
St. Louis County,
Mo.
Title
Geo-Coding
Plan.
OPI>.
X
Digitized
Level
P.C.
S.1.
•
DASD
Applications
On-Line
Update
Software
Tax Billing
Land-Use
Re-Districtlng
Title Search
No
No
Sporadic
Custom
No
No
HegularBatch
Custom
RegularBatch
Planned
General
Purpose
2
Santa Clara
County, Calif.
Local
Government
Information
Control LOGIC
X
P.C.
Real Property
Voter
Registration
Planning
3
Los Angeles,
Calif.
Automatic
Planning
Operations File
APOF
X
P.C.
Planning
Socio-Economic
Economic
4
New York City,
N.Y.
Geographic
Information
System GIST
X
S.1.
Planning
Assessor
No
No
Department
Responsibility
DIME
5
Portland, Oreg.
Metropolitan
Planning
Commission
Map-Model
System
X
Polygon/
Districts
Land Use
No
No
Field
Survey
FORTRAN/
PLit
6
Kansas City, Mo.
Metropolitan
Planning
Commission
Geo-Plan
System
X
S.I./
Districts
Planning
No
Sporadic
Graphic
Output
Cobol!
Fortran
7
Washington
Council of
Governments
Metropolitan
Parcel File
X
Census
Tracts
Block
Centroids
Transportation
Land Use
No
No
Annual
Custom
8
New Haven, Conn.
Ce.nsus Use Study
Dual
Independent
Map Encoding
DIME
Technique
Research
S.1.
Census
Planning
No
No
N/A
DIl\lE
9
IBM/FSD
Alexandria, Va.
GeographicallyOriented Urban
Data Hase
Research
S.1.
Public Works
Planning
Yes
Yes
N/A
FASTER
Geo- Het l'i('v al
I
No
(Plan)
No
Summary
Files on
Disk
No
(Plan)
Figure 2 - Geo-Data Base Systems Currently Under Development
Political Aspects
There is at present, an explosion of urban problems - in
the physical, personal, social, economic and governmental
aspects of the environment. Secretary Romney of HUD
emphasizes the severity of these problems as follows:
... urgent needs and problems press in upon Our
cities and those who try to govern them: youthful
immorality and drug addiction, idleness, traffic jams,
IBM System/360 Model 30 Disk
@ $12, OOO/Mo. Lease
Facility Rental, 3, 000 Sq. Ft.
@ $5. OO/Sq. Ft.
Site Preparation
Personnel
Supplies
Data Preparation (Key Punch, etc.)
Software
Consulting Services
Education
Total
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for September, 1971
District of Columbia
Montgomery County
Prince George's County
Arlington County
Fairfax County
Alexandria
POEulation*
808
341
357
173
249
115
Total
Budget*
ADP
Budget*
Per
Per
Cent CaEita
$750,000
71,000
93,000
31,000
68,000
37,000
$6,000
630
1,063
300
1,350
187
0.7
0.9
1.1
1.0
2.0
0.5
$7.42
1. 85
3.00
1. 73
5.40
1. 62
*In thousands.
Figure 4 - Examples of ADP Budgets in the D.C. Area
$144,000
15,000
30,000
85,000
10,000
12,500
10,000
25,000
2,500
$334,000
Hardware
$144,000
Operating Expenses $190,000
Ratio
1.3
Figure 3 - A Simulated ADP Budget
Jurisdiction
polluted air and water, filth and ugliness, deteriorating education, rising crime, intractable poverty racial, ethnic, social and economic tension.
Against the tide of problems, city governments are
fighting a heroic but generally losing rear guard action
with inadequate citizen concern and involvement,
balkanized and archaic state and local governments,
hostile state and local relationships, inflation, excessive self-defeating property tax structure, and lack of
money.
The crises of hope in local government is the direct
result of a growing sense that problems of the city
cannot be solved, that its government cannot govern,
and that its life cannot be made livable. 3
23
Solving Urban Crises
We will contend that information systems technology
(including ADP) can contribute to solution of these urban
crises. I t can:
• Provide answers to the growing demands for comprehensive socio-economic information on urban
localities to accurately pin-point problems, describe actual conditions, and provide the basis for
the evaluation of social programs.
• Assist local government in meeting the growing
onus of federal & state reporting requirements
associated with grants in aid.
.. Rationalize many administrative tasks through the
process of systems analysis required prior to automation. Procedures must be minimized; the opportunity exists for the elimination or reduction of
unnecessary and unproductive record keeping
tasks.
• Strengthen the planning process as an essential
management tool for the coordination of governmental services rather than a supernumerary function, often separate and independent from the
operational departments.
• Facilitate the operational service functions through
desperately needed automation in such areas as
health, welfare, employment security, licensing,
courts, and many others in which the complexities
and time consumed in standing in lines often
discourages those people most in need of essential
services from utilizing them.
There are two categories of public administration functions that provide further understanding of the political
aspects of information systems.
The first is the internal administration and finance which
involves the ·management and control of municipal organization and resources, such as payroll, personnel, accounting, etc. Internal functions can usually be handled in an
insular fashion without substantial impact from other units
of government, although taxation is often an exception.
The second is public and social services which address
regional problems which do not respect municipal boundaries such as crime, poverty, transportation, pollution, etc.
These service functions often cannot be adequately handled
without close coordination and cooperation with adjacent
jurisdictions.
Too Many Local Government Units
Metropolitan areas are a conglomeration of multiple
levels and numbers of independent jurisdictions. The number of local government units in the 40 largest SMSA's
(Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area) range from 28 to
1,060, are relatively independent of population, and result
in both vertical and horizontal conflicts. (See Figure 5.)
There are several approaches to the solution of this
problem oftoo many local government units.
One solution is the establishment of Regional Councils.
Regional Councils are growing at the rate of over 40% in
the Eastern U.S., according to the National Service to
Regional Councils directories for 1969 vs. 1970. Whether
these agencies can solve the problems, or in some cases
represent only one more jurisdiction to further compound
the problem, remains to be seen. But they appear to be a
step in the right direction.
24
A second way to decrease the number of government
units is the political merger of county and municipal
governments. This has been done in several areas, including
Nashville, Tenn., and Jacksonville, Florida.
The functions performed by local government units vary
depending on their level of jurisdiction. Municipalities
concentrate heavily on public finance; counties usually
perform the real property assessment function; welfare and
employment security are usually administered at the state
level. This factor enhances the importance of regional
cooperation and inter-governmental relations.
Effective Implementation
Internal politics within jurisdictions raises questions
about the effective implementation of ADP, particularly
when a centralized approach is attempted. The functions of
municipal government represent strong vested interests;
furthermore, the possession of information is in itself a
major element of administrative power and influence. The
development of urban information systems cutting across
departmental lines, in which a wide variety of functional
•
1965
Estimated
Rank
SMSA Ci
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
New York
Chicago
Los Angeles
Philadelphia
Detroit
San Francisco
Boston
Pittsburgh
St. Louis
Washington
Cleveland
Baltimore
Newark
Minn.-st. Paul
Houston
Buffalo
Milwaukee
Cincinnati
Paterson
Dallas
Seattle
Kansas City
San Diego
Atlanta
Indianapolis
Miami
Denver
New Orleans
Portland (Ore.)
Providence
San Bernardino
Tampa
Columbus
Rochester
Dayton
Louisville
Bi~mingham
San Antonio
Anaheim-Santa Ana
Memphis
Local
Governments
11366
6689
6765
4664
3987
2918
3205
2372
2249
2408
2000
1854
1857
1612
1696
1320
1275
1347
1307
1289
1179
1183
1136
1216
984
1061
1073
1027
897
739
1026
873
847
804
791
771
644
808
1107
740
555
1060
234
963
242
346
125
806
482
84
205
28
204
261
166
153
238
259
196
198
281
338
140
84
311
32
205
31
374
72
250
40
128
224
162
129
79
59
114
46
(Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of the Census;
"Census of Governments" 1962, Vol. V,
Local Governments in Metropolitan Areas.)
Figure 5 - Local Government Units in Standard
Metropolitan Statistical Areas
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for September, 1971
•
information may be readily accessible to many individuals,
is often conceived to represent a threat to these vested
interests.
Typically, municipal functions have not been developed
in the context of advanced technology for handling information. Separation of functions was required to make
manual record keeping tasks manageable, leading to extensive fragmentation. Legislative, political and economic
motives also led in this direction.
With the availability of ADP it makes little sense to
sustain this situation; e.g. financial management is often
fragmented into separate accounting, budget, revenue, purchasing, payroll and other segments. Systems analysis reveals these factors and ADP technology demand a more
sensible integration of functions. So what we are talking
about is not information system integration, but rather the
integration and reorganization of basic municipal functions.
The organizational locus of the ADP organization also
presents a tense political problem. Although, it often
originates in the Finance department, its broad service
responsibilities often lead to an independent status under
the chief administrative officer. Department heads often
come to feel that the ADP group usurps their authority.
This is often due to the failure to make ADP techniques an
inherent part of the administrative process.
The administrative weakness 'of the planning function,
contrasted with its heavy demands on the use of ADP, also
compounds the problem. There is need for more effective
use of planning as a viable tool for urban management.
Management must interact continuously with operations,
receive information feedback, and provide evaluative data
on the effectiveness of programs.
The "Privacy" Issue
The cross-correlation and availability of comprehensive
data on persons raises serious questions concerning the
individual's rights to "privacy". This issue is with us at
present and is not brought about by ADP alone. Solution
will involve legislative and administrative safeguards to
establish proper guidelines (which often do not exist at
present) and the use of technological restrictions such as
scrambling, keyword, physical security and limited access.
This issue is often confused with that of confidentiality,
which refers to the proprietary possession of data by
specific departments (which may otherwise be in the public
domain). This is another internal political constraint that
may be difficult to justify, but it often results in significant
obstacles to effective system development and implementation.
If management adopts the concept of "enlightened
self-interest" in this sphere, the result can be the concurrent
strengthening of both administrative procedures and political entrenchment. Many have concluded that "our localities
have suffered a reduction in their capacity to govern
themselves." I maintain that the effective utilization of
information system technology can begin to close this gap.
D
References
1. Malchus, Watlington, "ADP in Municipal Government," Urban
Data Service, International City Manager's Association, Oct.
1970, Vol. 2, No. 10.
2. Howe, G. and K. L. Kraemer, "Automated Data Processing in
Municipal Government", 1968 Municipal Yearbook, International City Manager's Association, p. 293.
3. 46th Annual Congress of Cities, December, 1969.
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for September, 1971
Hirschfield - Continued from page 17
Of course, auditing of the system is a much more
extensive subject and one of great concern for both the
internal and external auditors of an organization. For
auditors must not only be capable of reviewing the integrity
of the controls and security in an on-line system, they must
determine the effectiveness of these controls and, most
important, be able to detect any changes to the system
which affect control and security levels. With less hard copy
being produced, the traditional "audit trail" is vanishing;
and the auditor must develop new techniques for validating
the effectiveness of control and security measures. Some of
the techniques that we recommend are:
I. Involvement of the auditor in the systems development effort to insure that adequate controls are
built in initially and that the auditor is aware of
the control points and satisfied with the systems
auditability. Should an auditor experienced in
electronic data processing be your Security Officer? It might be a good idea.
2. The use of error analysis systems, particularly in
new systems, to indicate weaknesses in systems
design which may affect controls.
3. The use of computer audit programs to evaluate
the accuracy of data files. An even more advanced
approach is the development of resident audit
modules in the system which can be triggered
either externally or internally by a dynamic happening in the application process.
4. The use of the mini-company concept, wherein a
fictitious set of records is processed in the same
stream and by the same programs or modules that
perform normal processing. In this way the results
of processing can be verified without affecting live
data.
None of these techniques can stand alone. In fact, in many
installations the use of all these techniques is advisable to
evaluate the effectiveness of systems controls. The key
point is that the auditor will want to be, and should be,
heavily involved in the areas of on-line security and control.
No system is self-auditing, and exposure to the auditing
process may be the best guarantee for the systems developers that the system is truly secure.
Summary
Obviously, in a short article, the requirements of on-line
security and control can only be lightly covered. Many
extensive volumes and papers have been written on each of
the subject areas covered. The purpose of this article is to
point out some of the problems inherent in securing on-line
systems and some potential avenues of solution.
The selection of the appropriate avenues is a task
requiring careful evaluation, for implementation can be
complicated, costly, and add greatly to systems overhead.
Therefore, the user must carefully evaluate and cost justify
the security measures. He must question critically, What is
the data worth? What are the true ramifications of the
computer system being out of operation one hour; two
hours; a day? Ramifications may take the form of direct
loss, interruption of customer service, or a failure to fulfill
legal obligations. In short, what are the problems and what
alternatives exist? Then, and only then, can the user decide
on an adequate level of security that he is prepared to pay
the price to achieve.
D
25
The Federal Bureau of Investigation and the
Assassination of President Kennedy
"Although the Warren Commission had a substantial staff of lawyers, it had no
true investigative staff of its own. Consequently, the Commission relied upon
other agencies - the FBI, Central Intelligence Agency, Secret Service, etc. - for
field investigations and laboratory work. Of these agencies, the FBI acted as the
principal investigative arm of the Warren Commissioll . ..
Bernard Fensterwald, Jr., Attornev
927 15th St., N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20005
The President's Commission on the Assassination
of President John F. Kennedy, popularly known as
the "Warren Commission", was appointed by President
Lyndon B. Johnson on November 29, 1963. Less than
a year later the Warren Commission submitted its
report to President Johnson.
Reliance on Other Agencies for Investigation
Although the Warren Commission had a substantial
staff of lawyers, it had no true investigative staff
of its own. Consequently, the Commission relied
upon other agencies -- the FBI, Central Intelligence
Agency, Secret Service, etc. -- for field investigations and laboratory work. Of these agencies,
the FBI acted as the principal investigative arm of
the Warren Commission.
Theoretically, at least, the FBI was the agent
of the Warren Commission and did what the Commission
instructed it to do. In actual fact, the relationship between the two was not that simple. But whatever the complexities of the relationship, the role
played by the FBI was key to the Commission's working processes and its ultimate product -- the Warren
Report.
~his article focuses upon some aspects of the
FBI's role in the investigation into President
Kennedy's assassination. It concludes that the FBI
did not properly perform its duties. The article
charges, among other things, that:
•
the FBI withheld much pertinent information
from the Warren Commission;
•
the FBI flooded the Commission with reams of
irrelevant data;
•
the FBI altered some items of evidence, and
• in some instances the FBI procrastinated in
investigating and reporting relevant information.
26
A. The FBI Dominated the Investigation:
Did It Do Its Job Well?
1. Assigned by President Johnson to conduct a
"full and thorough" investigation of the assassination [IJ, the FBI produced a Summary Report [2J,
complete with embossed cover and plastic binder,
barely two weeks after the murder of President
Kennedy and before the Warren Commission could even
organize its staff or appoint its Chief Counsel
[3J. That report, and a similarly glossy FBI ~
plementary Report [4J date January 13, 1964, contained allegations of medical findings and other
basic evidence which are in irreconcilable conflict
with the Commission's own findings on the same
evidence.
Premature Commitment
In addition, these reports prematurely committed
the FBI -- and probably the Commission as well -to the thesis that Oswald and Oswald alone was
guilty of having assassinated President Kennedy.
The FBI's errors on the evidence -- if that is what
they were -- were so embarrassing to the Commission
that these FBI reports were suppressed in the Commission's own Report and in its 26 volumes of Hearings and Exhibits as well [5]. The contents of
these two FBI reports, which seriously conflicted
with the Warren Commission thesis, were not disclosed until 1966 [6J.
Bullet Fragments and Data
2. The FBI withheld much pertinent information
from the Warren Commission. For example, the FBI
did not supply to the Commission the essential details of the spectrographic analyses of the bullet
and bullet fragments.
Yet this was absolutely crucial evidence, as it
could have shown whether all the projectiles and
the bullet were identifiable with a single batch of
ammunition. Instead, the FBI reported only that
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for Sepfember, 1971
,
the composi tion of these items was "similar" [7J.
Parenthetically, it should be stated that the
Warren Commission did not demand the details of the
spectrographic analyses, though it should have.
On the other hand, when members of the Commission
staff made inquiries about neutron activation analysis of the areas surrounding the alleged bullet hole
in the President's shirt collar and the nick on his
necktie, FBI Director J. Edgar Hoover personally
shunted aside any effort in this direction by throwing cold water on the usefulness of such tests as
an aid in understanding the origin of the hole and
the nick [8J. Yet neutron activation analysis is
a test several times more refined than spectrographic
analysis and might have resolved conclusively certain questions about the origin of the hole in the
President's shirt collar and the frayed area on his
necktie. As a consequence, these tests could have
answered questions as to whether a single bullet did
in fact inflict all seven wounds on both President
Kennedy and Governor Connally, a claim which the
Commission made and which was essential to its contention that the President was assassinated by a
lone rifleman.
Oswald's Records of FBI Agent Hosty
3. In a different form of dereliction, the FBI
sometimes procrastinated in reporting to the Commission the results of its investigations. Thus,
in one instance the FBI delayed seven weeks in reporting the contents of selected pages from Oswald's
notebook. These are the pages which contained the
name, address, phone number, and other data about
FBI Agent James P. Hosty, and which suggested a
possible informant-agent relationship between the
two men [9J.
Dental Charts of Jack Ruby's Mother
4. Meanwhile, the FBI did not hesitate to swamp
the Commission with time-consuming irrelevancies.
These included the dental charts of Jack Ruby's
mother [lOJ and the subtle distinctions between the
Caucasion, Negroid, and Mongoloid hairs [llJ. Recently it has come to light that the FBI sent to
the Commission two copies of a 48 page compilation
it made of Marina Oswald's medical records for the
period of her pregnancy [12J.
5. The FBI also meddled with evidence on occasion.
Thus, a camera said to have been used by Oswald
to have his picture taken ,holding the alleged assassination weapon was mended by the FBI prior to
duplicating the photographs [13J. The original
Oswald-with-rifle photographs themselves were belatedly examined for fingerprints by the FBI in
1968, while in the possession of the National Archives, and they are no longer in recognizable
condition [14J.
is 73, and 3 other employees are named as being absent from work that day [15]. Yet the Secret Service had previously identified 80 employees on December 7, 1963 [16J. Another employee, Gordon Wayne
Smith, who did work on November 22, 1963 and was in
the same group as Oswald, had been interviewed superficially by the FBI on November 27, 1963 [17J.
There is no record of a subsequent report on him
by either the Secret Service or the FBI. Scattered
references in the testimony and various Commission
exhibits establish that several other persons are
known to have been in the TSBD on the morning of
November 22, 1963, but some of these have not been
identified to this day [18].
B. Oswald Took the Rap: But Was He an FBI "Subject"?
an FBI "Informant"? or Both?
1. Texas Attorney General Waggoner Carr, based
on information supplied to him by Dallas District
Attorney (and former FBI agent) Henry Wade and
others, informed the Warren Commission in January,
1964, that there was evidence that Oswald had been
an FBI informant [19J.
The Emergency Meeting of the Warren Commission
That Was Unreported
This information occasioned an emergency meeting
of the Warren Commission on January 22, 1964. The
stenographic record of this meeting was confiscated
and never written up [20J. Carr and Wade were among
those then invited to Washington to discuss this
allegation with the Commission. The meeting was
held in total secrecy on January 24; even the stenographic reporters were excluded [21J. The proceedings have neVer been published.
The Commission resolved the dilemma which this
allegation posed by asking J. Edgar Hoover if Oswald was an FBI informant. The FBI Director responded that Oswald was not an FBI informant, after
which the Commission dropped the matter.
Oswald Sought an FBI Interview
When Jailed in New Orleans
2. On August 9, 1963 Oswald was arrested in New
Orleans for disturbing the peace. This charge arose
out of an altercation which occurred when Oswald
distributed leaflets on behalf of a purported New
Orleans chapter of the Fair Play For Cuba Committee
(FPCC), a national organization suspect~d as subve~~
sive by the FBI. Strangely, Oswald asked for and
promptly got an interview with an FBI agent [22J.
Would a "true" subversive seek an FBI interview
upon being jailed? The FBr-Iater explained to the
Commission that it was apparent from the interview
that Oswald "was making a self-serving statement"
[23J but the FBI also charged that Oswald had told
the agent numerous lies during the interview and
they neglected to show how any of this served Oswald's supposed purposes.
Lack of Identification of at Least 7 Persons
6. The FBI never interviewed or even identified
some of the persons who were employed at the Texas
School Book Depository (TSBD) at the time of the
murder.
Yet certain of these persons might have been
among the most important witnesses in the entire
investigatian. A letter from J. Edgar Hoover to
the Commission, date April 3, 1964, purported to
forward statements "from each person known to have
been in the Texas School Book Depository on November 22, 1963." The number of statements forwarded
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for September, 1971
Seven FBI Agents Associated with Oswald
3. At least seven different FBI agents are known
to have been associated with Oswald during the year
and a half after his return from Russia and before
the assassination, several of them through personal
interview of Oswald [24J.
One agent, Warren DeBrueys, prepared a report
dated October 25, 1963, concerning the "Fair Play
For Cuba Committee - New Orleans Division" [25J.
Published references to this report seem to indicate that it is entirely or almost entirely about
27
Oswald [26J, although by this date Oswald had departed New Orleans at least a month previously and
the FBI later stated that its investigations during
the Summer of 1963 "disclosed no existence of organized FPCC activities in the New Orleans area"
and, in fact, "the only activities in behalf of the
FPCC appeared to be those efforts made by Oswald"
[27J. The DeBrueys report, while apparently made
available to the Warren Commission, is not printed
in the Commission volumes and has never been released to the public by the FBI.
4. FBI Director J. Edgar Hoover, in a letter to
the Commission on May 4, 1964, submitted an itemized list of "the contents of the FBI headquarters
file concerning Lee Harvey Oswald up to the time
of the assassination ... " [28J. The list contains
no fewer than 69 items, but despite its length there
are at least two known FBI reports concerning Oswald,
prepared prior to the assassination, which are not
included [29J. Hoover's letter offered no explanation for such omissions.
5. FBI Director J. Edgar Hoover submitted a letter and affidavit to the Commission in February,
1964, in which he stated "categorically" that Oswald
had never been an informant for the FBI [30J. Taken
in context, Hoover's statement is a response to the
allegation that Oswald had been a paid informant for
the FBI. Consequently, the refutation of this allegation overshadowed other ticklish questions about
the nature of Oswald's contacts with the FBI. The
Commission itself published FBI reports of interviews
of Oswald on June 26 and August 16, 1962 [31J, which
state that Oswald had promised to cooperate ~ith the
FBI by reporting "any contacts, or attempted contacts,
by the Soviets under suspicious circumstances or
otherwise." On its face, it seems rather strange
that an alleged Marxist who defected to Russia should
agree to cooperate with the FBI to the detriment of
the Soviet Union.
C. Unanswered Questions About the FBI's Knowledge
of Oswald Prior to the President's Assassination
Convincing evidence exists that Oswald could not
have been the lone assassin of President Kennedy-.-Close examination of the available evidence suggests
extensive fabrication and cover-up, and also suggests
the clear possibility that Oswald was framed for a
crime with which he had no connection, particularly
not as a rifleman [32J.
But assuming for the sake of argument that, although contrary to the evidence, the Warren Commission thesis about Oswald is true, there remain embarrassing but unanswered questions.
1. Dallas FBI Agent James P. Hosty was assigned
to investigate Oswald prior to the assassination of
President Kennedy. Hosty is reported to have asserted to a Dallas Police Detective on the afternoon of
the assassination that the FBI was aware of Oswald
and that they had infor~ation that Oswald '~as capable of committing the assassination of President
Kennedy" [33J. Hosty later denied making any such
statement, contrary to convincing evidence that he
had [34J.
2. FBI Director J. Edgar Hoover defended Hosty
and claimed that the FBI did not have "any indication that this man was a dangerous character ... "
and that there had been no information to justify
referral to the Secret Service [35J. The Commission
disagreed, and after recounting Oswald's history of
hostile and erratic behavior, all of which was well
known to the FBI, observed: '~ll this does seem to
28
amount to enough to have induced an alert agency,
such as the FBI, possessed of this information to
list Oswald as a potential threat to the safet~ of
the President" [36J.
3. Marina Oswald lived at the residence of Ruth
and Michael Paine in Irving, Texas, for some weeks
prior to the assassination and Lee Oswald frequently
stayed there. For reasons said to have been related
to Oswald, the FBI initiated a full field investigation of the Paines in late October, 1963, actually
visiting the Paine residence on November 1 and 5,
1963 [37J. FBI Agent Hosty claims that he learned
of the Oswalds' living with the Paines only after
learning of a change of address filed by Oswald in
New Orleans [38J.
FBI Interception of Oswald's Mail
4. Numerous FBI reports, some only recently declassified, establish conclusively that Oswald's
correspondence with certain organizations was being
intercepted and supplied by confidential informers
to the FBI. One such report cites the contents of
an Oswald letter to the FPCC in April, 1963, the
source being described as "Dallas confidential informant T-2" [39J. A New York informer reported an
Oswald letter to The Worker in June, 1963 [40J.
Another FBI report shows awareness of Oswald's correspondence with the Soviet Embassy in Washington
in August, 1962 [41J. The FBI neither admitted nor
denied operating a mail cover on Oswald, although
this would have been a simple and logical extension
of the FBI's investigation of him. The existence
of a mail cover on Oswald is, however, a legitimate
question, for if such a mail cover was placed on
Oswald prior to March, 1963, then the FBI may have
known of Oswald's receipt by mail of the rifle
which he allegedly used to assassinate President
Kennedy. Knowledge of Oswald's receipt of this
weapon would clearly have signalled his "capability"
for violence which the FBI claimed was unknown.
5. The FBI possessed a massive dossier on Oswald
and his activities for several years [42J. FBI Agent
James P. Hosty, who knew intimately of Oswald's past
and his place of employment at the TSBD, claimed to
have been totally unconcerned about Oswald as a
threat to the President [43J. Yet this same Hosty
said he took it upon himself on November 21, 1963,
to inform the Secret Service of certain right-wing
activities and threats to the President in Dallas
[44J. proving that there was no lack of opportunity
for the FBI to have warned about Oswald.
D. Does the FBI Mislead Its Bosses?
1. The day after District Attorney Jim Garrison
arrested New Orleans businessman Clay Shaw and
charged him with having conspired to murder President Kennedy, Ramsey Clark, who was in the midst of
Senate proceedings to confirm him as Attorney General, asserted that the FBI had included Shaw in
an investigation into the assassination it made in
November and December of"1963. Clark then claimed:
"On the evidence that the FBI has, there was no
connection found" [45J.
2. Three months later the Justice Department
issued another statement which proclaimed that
Clark's earlier statements were in error and admitted that the FBI did not investigate Shaw during
its probe of President Kennedy's assassination [46J.
3. J. Edgar Hoover has recently asserted that
Ramsey Clark was a "jellyfish" - the worst Attorney
General he had ever served under. "He was worse
than Bobby," Hoover said [47J.
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for September, 1971
However, the incidents related above raise a
serious question about Hoover. Did Hoover's FBI
mislead Attorney General Clark as to whether the
FBI had ever investigated Clay Shaw during its probe
of President Kennedy's assassination?
CITATIONS
Following is the explanation of abbreviations used
in the citations below:
•
WR
Warren Report
CE
Commission Exhibit (Printed in one or
another of the 26 volumes of Hearings
and Exhibits; these can be located by
exhibi t number.)
CD -- Commission Document (These are not printed but are available for examination at
the National Archives, provided they are
not still classified.)
Certain exhibits, e.g. Gallagher Exhibit 1,
are referred to by the name of the p~rson testifying at the time they were introduced; these are
printed in the 26 volumes and can be located by
name and number in the appropriate volume as identified by the binder.
Testimony is cited by volume and page number,
followed in parenthesis by the name of the person
testifying, e.g., "5HIO:::> (J. Edgar Hoover)" means
volume 5, page 100, testimony of J. Edgar Hoover.
In a few instances involving references to lengthy
exhibits, this same notation is used to specify
a particular volume and page number to facilitate
the location of the information being cited.
18. For example, see 6H366-367 (Danny Arce); Decker
Exhibi t 5323 (19H511 re a "Joe Loraine") i CD
897, pp. 35-36 (re a Mr. & Mrs. Hawkings).
19. Congressman Gerald R. Ford, Portrait of the Assassin, pp. 13-25
20. Records of Ward & Paul, Court Reporters, Washington, D.C., 1964
21. Ibid. (no entry); the meeting itself is described by Ford, QQ Cit., pp. 13-14.
22. WR, pp. 436-437; CE 833, p. 7
23. CE 833, p. 10; see also 5Hll (Alan Belmont)
24. CD 821 through 824, 826, 829, and 833
25. CE 833, pp. 7 & 9
26. Ibid.
27. Ibid.
28. CE 834
29. Known to be in existence but not included in
Hoover's list are the Fain report of 5/12/60
(see CE 821) and the DeBrueys report of 10/25/63
(see CE 833, p. 7-9). See also 5H26 (Alan Belmont) re certain Hosty notes or reports in
October-November, 1963.
30. CE 825 and 835
31. CE 823, p. 13; CE 824, pp. 1 & 6
1. 5HIOO (J. Edgar Hoover)
3. WR, pp. x-xi
32. See particularly the works by Sylvia Meagher
(Accessories After the Fact) and Harold Weisberg (Whitewash II: The FBI-Secret Service
Cover-Up and Photographic Whitewash).
4. CD 107 and 107.1
33. WR, p. 441
5. No part of CD 1, 107, or 107.1 is printed in the
Report or Volumes. Neither J. Edgar Hoover
nor Alan Belmont (Asst. to Hoover) refer to
them in testimony.
34. WR, pp. 441-442; CE 709 & 711
2. CD 1
6. "List of Basic Source Materials," National Archives, released to public in 1966. See also
Sylvia Meagher, Accessories After the Fact,
Bobbs-Merrill, 1967, pp. 147-148.
35. WR, pp. 442-443; CE 833, p. 2 of cover letter
36. WR, p. 443
37. CE 830; CE 833, pp. 12 & 13; 4H446-448 (James
P. Hosty); 5H26 (Alan Belmont)
38. 4H447 (Hosty); CE 833, p. 13
7. 5H67 (Frazier)
•
17. CD 5, p. 375; see also CE 1949 (23H751)
39. CE 829, p. 2; CE 833, p. 5
8. Gallagher Exhibit
9. CD 833, p. 15; 5Hl12 (Hoover); the actual entries
may be seen in CE 18 (16H64)
40. CE 833, p. 6; see also CD 28, pp. 3-4; CD75,
pp. 672-673 (declassified in 1970)
41. CE 824, pp. 1 & 4
10. CE 1281
42. WR, pp. 433-440
11. CE 668 through 670
43. 4H460 (Hosty)
12. CD 884
44. Ibid.
13. 4H284
14. Information from the National Archives
45. New York Times, March 2, 1967, p. 22
46. Ibid., June 3, 1967, p. 64
15. CE 1381
47. Washington Post, November 17, 1970, p. 1
16. CD 87, Secret Service
~491
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for September, 1971
29
THE UNEMPLOYED COMPUTER PROFESSIONAL
TURNED BUSINESSMAN: Products and Services
Which a New Small Business Might Produce or OFFer
" ... Outside the computer field the opportunities for an unemployed computer
professional as a businessman seem to be brighter. "
Edmund C. Berkeley
Editor, Computers and Automation
Note: This article is printed as a result of
receiving many requests from subscribers for
a memorandum offered at the end of the editorial in the May 1971 issue:
How an Unemployed Computer Professional
Might Start His Own Business and Earn a
Reasonable Income as his own Employer
In these days when unemployment has overtaken
many computer professionals, some of them might
well go into business for themselves.
This course of action naturally raises a number
of questions. One of the first questions is "Shall
I stay in the computer field?"
Computer Field
The computer field in my opinion is not likely
to be a good field for a new small business for
a number of reasons, such as
There is intense competition;
Many well-trained sales staffs make very
active sales efforts;
Most computer products, after they have
been sold, require servicing, over a wide
geographic area;
Customers may not stay sold;
Most computer products require advanced
professional engineering, which takes
time and is costly;
As competition increases, the prices of
computer products are likely to go down
and down;
Good business management and good technical
engineering are not usually combined in the
same unemployed person; etc.
In fact, there has been intense cultivation of
the computer field as a glamor economic field for
at least fifteen years; and most of the economic
prizes have been and will be awarded to the bigger
companies.
Outside the computer field the opportunities for
an unemployed computer professional as a businessman seem to be brighter.
30
Small Businesses in Towns or Suburbs
A large number of small businesses operate and
survive in small geographical areas. These include:
carpenter, electrician, painter, roofer, plumber,
etc. Also repairing services for: automobiles;
typewriters and other office machines; clothes
washing machines, dishwashing machines, and other
household appliances; etc. Also, gift shops, music
shops, fabric shops, florists, and other local
suppliers of merchandise. Some of these occupations
naturally have training requirements or local governmental requirements to be met.
The classified advertising pages of the local
telephone directory should give a full panorama of
possibilities in this area.
Anybody who considers paying a carpenter $10 an
hour for moderately good work might well prefer to
pay $6 an hour to an unemployed computer professional who is able to do carpentering work just as
well.
Guides to many of these businesses and occupations should be obtainable from the Department of
Labor or the Department of Commerce.
Small Businesses in Large Cities
In larger cities there are many more pos~ibili
ties for businesses, built around unusual products.
Examples I have recently noticed in New York include:
-- A maker of "high-fashion" leather sandals,
who had developed quite a reputation in
Greenwich Village.
A maker and repairer of umbrellas, who
offers excellent products at reasonable
prices. For example, he provides among
other things men's folding umbrellas
(which can be carried in a briefcase
unt i l it ra ins) .
-- A French pastry shop, making delicious,
unusual baked goods, a shop which seems
to be always full of customers paying high
prices.
One way to find a large number of possibilities
would be to compare the classified telephone directory for one's own city with the classified telephonp. directory for New York or San Francisco.
Unusual Products
There is a fascination about unusual products,
which often can lead to a ·success in a new business.
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for September, 1971
•
Among products and services which are new (do
not yet exist) or are not new but are unusual (or
difficult to some extent to obtain) are the following:
1. Unbreakable Electric Alarm Clock. The common
electric alarm clock breaks as soon as it is dropped.
It ought to be possible to transfer the works of
any electric alarm clock into an unbreakable plastic case and otherwise engineer it, so that if
dropped it will not break nor stop running.
2. Novel Foods. There is apparently a considerable
of demand for health foods, and foods produced by organic gardening. People are willing to
pay more for what they think is really good food.
Several kinds of unusual bread have become famous
in this way.
~psurge
3. Sunny Window Greenhouse. It should be possito provide materials, controls, and instructions
for a combination greenhouse-terrarium (a "greenarium"), which would be placed in a sunny window
in the home. By its means, tomatoes and other
vegetables and food ought to be able to be grown
year-round in the home. (This project has been
tried, not very successfully, in the past; but
sufficient research and development work has probably never been invested.)
bl~
4. Artificial Emeralds. It should be possible to
make artificial emeralds (aluminum beryllium silicate,
colored with chromium oxide) in a small electric
furnace. I have heard a rumor that someone is already doing this, using a secret process of his own
invention. Natural emeralds are very rare, in fact
much rarer and much more valuable than diamonds'
synthetic emeralds would be very beautiful and '
should sell for a good price.
5. Home-Programmed Knitting Machine. It should be
possible to make a small knitting machine for home
use that could be programmed from a bought punched
paper tape, and which would enable unskilled people
at home to knit socks, sweaters, undershirts, etc.
6. Home Grinding Machine. It should be possible
to provide small electric-motor driven machines for
home grinding of wheat, rye, corn, other grains,
dried peas and beans, coffee beans, etc., so that
fresh on-the-spot flour or meal could be provided
for home cooking. Probably such a machine already
exists -- but is not vigorously marketed.
7. Stockings and Panty Hose -- Spray. It ought to
be possible to find a spray to make stockings and
panty hose not run ~ so that if snagged the tear
remains small and does not spread. The spray might
tack together the crossing stitches in the hose so
that they would no longer unravel.
8. Stockings and Other Fabrics Which Do Not Unravel. It ought to be possible to weave nylon,
etc., into stockings and other fabrics that will not
succumb to runs. Such stockings ought to capture
the market from stockings that can have runs.
9. "Minuteries Electriques." This is a French
name for time-delay relay devices which close an
electric circuit only for a short time. They can
be used for lavatory lights, hall lights, etc.
They are used very widely in France (where electricity is very expensive).
removing your shoes. Made in France for Air France,
and given to airline passengers as a gift.
11. Eye Covers, or Blinders. To place over your
eyes when there is bright light around you, so
that you can rest or sleep in the dark. Made in
Japan for Pan-Am Airlines and distributed to airline passengers as a gift.
12. Scientific and Engineering Specimen Collections. Collections of different kinds of paper, with
explanations. Collections of different kinds of
artificial crystals. Collection of different kinds
of cleavages (calci te, galena, feldspar, sphalerite,
fluorite -- see a textbook on mineralogy). Collections of common fastenings and stampings and descriptions of what they are used for. Etc.
13. Rechargeable Flashlight Battery. Cheap.
Easy to recharge. Proof against leaking.
14. Hair Cutting Kit. So that a man can cut and
style his hair for himself in the way he himself
chooses -- without paying a barber $100 a year.
Including mirrors so that he can see the back, the
sides, and the top of his head. (Also, similar kit
for girls.)
15. Gardening Kit. So that a person can remove
weeds from and grow flowers in his flower beds much
more efficiently. Including various kinds of pestkilling devices and materials, such as praying manti ses, sprays, fertilizers ," etc., with directions.
With soil testing kit.
16. Ec~logical..Recycling Kit. So that a person
can use ( recycle) autumn leaves, ,glass, waste
paper, cans, manure, and other debris from his
house, kitchen, bathroom, etc., to make humus,
wrapping paper, furnace oil, etc. One way to grow
rich might be to convert all one's trash into useful productsl
17. Solar Heating Equipment. So that you could
cut down your fuel bill to 1/2 or 2/3 of what it
was before.
18. Light-Weight Shopping Bag with H8ndles. In
France,Great Britain, Switzerland, etc., when you
buy goods in a store, the store almost never gives
you a large paper bag to carry them away. Usually,
you bring your own very light-weight, very sturdy
shopping bag, to hold all your purchases. This
type of bag (on sale in many local stores in Europe)
is usable over and over, durable, and folds up
smaller than a handkerchief.
19. Old-Fashioned Products No Longer Sold. Compare an old Sears-Roebuck catalog with a current
one; and see which products have gone out of use
(like a bread-making machine). Choose some of these
products that are appealing and produce them and
offer them again.
20. Small Vacuum Cleaner: Improved; easy to take
apart and put together again; fan ahead of the dust
bag.
21. Snow Shovel. With replaceable blades so that
you do not have to throwaway the whole snow shovel
when the blade you are using gives up.
Ideas Which Can Lead to New Products
10. Slippers of Fabric. Very light. For traveling. Enables you to rest your feet while traveling,
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for September, 1971
Finally, there are many ideas, questions, prin31
ciples, and schemes which can lead to new products,
such as the following:
1. Can you make it more convenient?
2. Can you make it last twice as long? or
much longer still?
3. Can you make it replenishable or refillable
or reusable or otherwise increase its life
and usefulness? and decrease trashing?
4. Can you engineer it from the point of view
of the consumer (who is often neglected) -not the point of view of the manufacturer
who wants to make more, nor the point of
view of the salesman who wants to sell more.
5. Can you make it more desirable, filling more
needs, more comfortable to use, more of a
help to the user, more of a friendly expression to the customer who was good
enough to you to buy it from you?
6. Can you make the use of it take half the
time that the old one required?
7. Can you make it repairable? (Think of the
toys that fifty years ago could be mended
with nuts and bolts in holes;-and that nowadays cannot be mended because they are
made of plastic and the plastic has broken.)
8. Can a product which is in wide use in a foreign country be wanted here and used here?
(Example: the Volkswagen).
9. Can you apply a new source of modern power
(like an electric motor) in the home, so
that a big external business is no longer
needed? (Example: Because of the electric
motor, the entire business of making flour,
it would seem, could be replaced by grinding
grain on the premises where the flour is to
be used.)
I hope these suggestions and ideas may be of use
to unemployed computer professionals who are interested in starting their own businesses.
But the road to success is long and hard, and
requires much work, much knowledge, and much common sense, both elementary and advanced.
"90 MILLION PEOPLE FULLY EMPLOYED IN 80 MILLION
JOBS" - COMMENTS
From "Speculation"
Bethesda, MD
The editorial in the March issue of C&A ("The
Number of Answers to a Problem") intrigued me as
well as tickled my fancy. However, you overlooked
the warning Rudyard Kipling offered in the 69 ways
for making tribal lays in that" ... every-singleone-of-them-is-right ... " and your own advice that
" ... 70, plus or minus half a dozen, ... " might be
offered.
You concluded that it is "impossible" for 90 million people to be fully employed in 80 million jobs.
I offer the very recent "Wall Street Journal"
page one article of 23 March 1971 in contradiction.
It is enti tled "The Seven-Day Week" (get 26 weeks
32
off per year at full pay). Simply put, 160 million
people could be fully employed in 80 million jobs.
In fact, the concept of "time-off" is readily acceptable as "any-part-of-the-day" for shift work.
Putting aside religious issues, for discussion's
sake, why can't the American economy and business
community go to a concept of "work every'day"?
The enterprise would be manned 7 days a week 24
hours a day except for a few (10 to 15) national
holidays.
The individuals involved would be employed in
staggered shifts, staggered hours, staggered periods
of no work and vacations.
More managers, services, employees ... , in fact
everything, would be required. The result would be
an instantaneous (almost) shortage of every skill,
every resource, men, machines, materials, factories,
services, money, etc. Ah, yes, and an increase in
the by-products -- waste ecological overloading -but why not solutions, too?
There are many answers and many values for those
answers.
I [ear tha t Murphy's Second Law -- "If left to
themselves, things always go from bad to worse" -is an excuse for procrastination.
As a systems analyst, I prefer gambler Leoz's
laws:
(1) The breaks are what you make for yourself;
(2) Avoid paralysis by analysis;
(3) A committee of one gets things done; and
(4) If it works, take care of it.
Not only is proof not always needed but it could be
costly and undesirable.
Since I am just speculati ng "out loud," you may
print this letter and sign it "Speculation".
Not until after I get my postgraduate degree (PhD)
will I care to obtain personal pUblicity and then I
hope it will be through a much more professional
article for C&A, whose standards I admire.
From Karl Force
Prudential Ins. Co. of America
Newark, N.J. 17101
Re your editorial in the March issue: your imagination is drooping. It is not impossible to fit
90 million people into 80 million jobs ... especially if we consider that an actuary may become an
editor of a computer magazinel
REDUCE THE WORK WEEKI
CORRECTIONS
In the April 1971 issue of Computers and Automation? the following corrections should be made:
Page 30, "7. The Case of The Superseding of
the Vacuum Tube": In paragraph 2, line 11?
replace "bandwi th" by "bandwidth"; in paragraph 4?line 5, replace "board" by "broad".
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for September, 1971
I BELIEVE IN AN ANTI-BALLISTIC MISSILE SYSTEM
1. From Robert L. Glass
26414 124th Ave. SE
Kent, Washington 98031
The question I have been asked is "Would you
trust your children's lives to a computer system
which cannot be checked out?"
I am a computer programmer, one who has been
around long enough to remember "CLA" and even "RAU" ,
a couple of machine instructions for computers long
since obsolete. And I have never yet written a
checked out program.
Oh, I have a lot of confidence in my programs.
I believe in them. But I never believe they are
really checked out.
So my answer to that question is another series
of questions:
"Would you trust your children's lives to a
school class scheduling program which is not checked
out?"
"Would you trust your children's lives to an
air traffic control program which is not checked
out?"
"Would you trust your children's lives to a
mandatory school busing program which is not checked
out?"
My answer, of course, is yes ... 1 dodoit,andI
would do it. And my question to those who would
ask me such questions is "Would you trust your
children's lives to a non-computerized diplomatic
system which cannot be checked out?"
I don't expect an answer.
time.
We all do, all the
As a computer professional who has worked on
complex military and non-military systems, I
believe in an anti-ballistic missile system, ABM.
I believe in it as a bargiining tactic in a world
gritting its teeth but on the brink of peace, and
I believe in it as a necessary strategic element
in maintaining that peace. I believe in it as a
defensive force in a world saturated with stockpiled offensive forces. I believe in it as an element in a defensive posture that I also believe in.
And I believe in the computer system, even unchecked-out, as an essential part of that total
system.
You see, I know some of the people who have
built military and aerospace systems. When they are
working in an area of doubt and risk, they understand the importance of doubt and risk. I believe
in those people, and in their integrity. I also
believe in the integrity of those who oppose ABM,
but I believe they are wrong.
One thing we share, I hope -- and they hope -- it
will never come down to finding out which of us is
right.
2. From Robert L. Glass
Above is an entry for your ABM contest. As is
often the case in my correspondence with you, you
will find that I do not agree wi th your implied
position in announcing the contest. I hope that
this opposition will not cause my essay to be dis-
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for September, 1971
qualified. You have been fair in the past, as with
my article "Intolerance" in the April, 1970 "House
Is On Fire."
My background includes 15 years in the aerospace
industry as a computing specialist dealing in research and development of advanced systems. For the
past year I have been on the staff of the University
of Washington computer center. I have published
several articles on various facets of computing, in
publications ranging from the ACM Surveys Journal
(Spring, 1969) to the British Computer Bulletin
(Sept., 1968) to Software Age (July, 1968). I am
a contributor to Computerworld, and am deeply involved in local civil rights organizations as
my primary non-technical interest.
3. From the Editor
Thank you for your letter and your entry in our
ABM contest.
You are right in saying that our opInIons of the
ABM ~ystem are not the same, but your position is
well stated and certainly publishable.
A PUBLICATION THAT THINKS ABOUT THE PROFESSION
AND THE RELATION OF THE PROFESSION TO SOCIETY
Michael Upp
Gybermatics Inc.
2460 Lemoine Ave.
Fort Lee, NJ 07024
C&A attempts to support itself on subscriptions
plus some advertising in order to achieve editorial
independence. As a result, you have developed a
forceful, provocative product. It is the one computer publication that I would like to see on every
college campus -- for many reasons. I would be
glad to pay an increased subscription rate if by
doing so, you would be able to circulate copies to
Universities at no cost. It is important t~at college students know that there are issues; that they
are discussed; that there are possible actions, etc.
Certainly, every single article in the March
issue is absolutely pertinent at the concerned student level: community service and the racial issue,
education, the pattern of assassinations, data banks
and privacy, anti-ABM, Brewster's s~eech. Anyone
of those articles would classify such an issue of
the usual trade publications as "worthwhile." You
have cornered the "meaningful" market.
On the Data Bank article by Professor Foster:
this is the first honest presentation on non-security
I have ever seen. No system that I have ever worked
on (and I have worked on many) is free from erroneous data release or malicious attempts at getting
the data. I have seen no solution algorithms that
do not result in a totally unusable system. I endorse Professor Foster's position completely. You
should solicit further endorsements from your
readers and make sure that Senator Ervin receives
the article and endorsements.
On the ABM: it is easier to comment than to formulate an essay. One reason why McCracken's nondebuggable argument will not penetrate is the unstated crux of the pro-ABM argument. To wit, its
existence should prevent its ever being used. This,
incidentally is the "justification" for BMEWS as
well. This is incredible reasoning! It is escalation by bluff, defense by projected reciprocal
body count. The major risk is that in time the existence theorem is forgotten and the operational presumption remains.
33
Incidentally, I'm teaching part time at Columbia
University. The series of "assasination" articles
have become a staple of my course. In addition to
provoking much thought vis-a-vis government, media,
truth, etc., they are immensely useful for probing
the potential social usefulness of our technology.
The course is one of general computing topics for
management. I've found it useful to open it with a
discussion of the literature. C&A comes off well as
the only publication that thinks about itself, the
profession, and the relation of the profession to
society,
ONE COMPUTER PROFESSIONAL FOR
THE ANTI-BALLISTIC MISSILE SYSTEM
Ronald G. Windsor
Director, Research and Data Processing Service
Harford Junior College
401 Thomas Run Road
Bel Air, MD 21014.
(Organization mentioned foridentification
purposes only)
This is written in the belief that Computers and
Automation is read by computer professionals in favor
of the ABM, as well as computer professionals against
the AmI. Niththisinmind I ask that you print this
letter.
Daniel D. McCracken's announcement of the AntiABM Contest in your March, 1971 issue, is impalatable
on several counts.
First, the examples used (5000 programming errors
in the 360, American Airlines' reservation system,
TWA's suit against Burroughs, NASA's program freezes,
the Rand study, not moving the moon, and his positive (?) note about trace tapes) to illustrate that
the ABM computer system cannot be tested, can serve
just as well to show that no such system can be
checked out short of nuclear disaster. (By the way,
the ABM system is ~t. fully automatic; humans are
required, particularly at the critical point -- the
decision to fire). Although I cannot accept Mr.
McCracken's line of reasoning, the fact remains that
other defense systems combine computers and nuclear
devices. Surely, the same logic applies to these
systems. Does Mr. McCracken want all of these
scrapped? Evidently not, because the name of the
group he chairs is "Computer Professional Against
the ABM." Why only the ABM?
Second, Mr. McCracken's remarks about Dr. Foster
("If statements like these were made by a student
in his first course in computing, you'd give him a
C-minus and forget .about it, in his second course
you 'd flunl~ him and forget it. ") are, to me, unjustified and pernicious.
Third, the essay topic, "Would you trust the lives
of your children to a highly complicated computer
system that cannot be checked out?", is a play on
the emotional. I can think of a host of words to
put after the first nine that would arouse negative
attitudes on a multitude of subjects.
So, until either a better system is proposed or
until mankind can live together in peace and harmony, I am for the ABM.
I ask those readers sharing this view to please
34
write Computers and Automation and (most important)
their Sen~tors and Representatives.
One computer professional for the ABM.
SEVEN MORE COMPUTER EXPERTS BECOME
'
SPONSORS OF GROUP AGAINST ABM
M. Kozikowski
Computer Professionals Against ABM
4 Inningwood Road
Ossining, NY 10562
Seven more computer experts have enlisted as
sponsors of Computer Professionals Against ABM,
an ad hoc organization of more than 500 computer
people which has been formed to oppose the ABM
Safeguard system on purely technical grounds. The
signers of the group's statement come from allover
the U.S., from both industry and education, and include some of the industry's pioneers in the development and application of computers.
The seven new sponsors are:
Professor Charles H. Davidson of the University
of Wisconsin;
Professor Aaron Finerman of the State University
of New York at Stony Brook;
Professor Robert W. Floyd of Stanford University;
Dr. Herbert R.J. Grosch of the National Bureau
of Standards;
Peter Zilahy Ingerman of Willingboro, N.J.;
Professor Melvin Klerer of New York University;
Dr. Donald L. Shell of Schenectady, N.Y.
The organization has developed a compelling case
for why the ABM cannot work and cannot be expected
to work -- that is, perform the function it is assigned to do. Successful operation of a complex
computer system is critical to the ABM's reliability.
The founder and chairman of the group, Daniel D.
McCracken, has addressed organizations of professionals in the computer industry on the subject in 15
cities in February and March, 1971. D.O. McCracken
is a computer consultant and the author of ten textbooks on computer programming that have sold over
a million copies.
In addition to Mr. McCracken, the Executive Committee of Computer Professionals Against ABM includes:
Paul Armer of The Harvard Program on Technology and
Society; Joseph Weizenbaum, Professor of Computer
Science at The Massachusetts Instutute of Technology;
and Gregory P. Williams, a computer technologist in
Phoenix, Arizona.
In addition to attracting the attention and support of computer professionals and national media,
the Computer Professionals Against ABM has taken
its message to Congress in the past few months. Mr.
McCracken has briefed various groups of Senate staff
personnel on· the inherent unreliability of the Safeguard computer system.
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for September, 1971
liTHE ANTI-BALLISTIC MISSILE SYSTEM IS DEFENSIVE"
From: Patrick M. Cooney
RD6
Carmel, NY 10512
To:
Daniel D. McCracken
4 Inningwood Road
Ossining, NY
According to the March 1971 issue of "Computers
and Automation", you are sponsoring a "contest", the
apparent aim being to put pressure on the U.S.
government to cease ABM development, deployment,
etc. You've said that copies of opinions (i.e.,
contest entries) should also be sent to various
officials in Washington, I shall do so.
The stated theme of your "contest" is "would you
trust the lives of your children to a highly complicated computer system that cannot be checked out?"
The future lives of my children are currently in
the hands of various educational computer systems
whose effect on my children and the future of our
society isn't "checked out", and whose developers
certainly aren't "checked out", I consider that
this is a real threat to our future; much larger
than your, at best, misguided idea that the ability
to defend ourselves is somehow bad.
I would agree however, that allowing computers to
make the decision that a threat to us exists and that
offensive missiles should be launched is wrong, Man
must keep this prerogative to himself. In my mind,
the key to the shakiness of your position is that
ABM is defensive; offensive war-making capability
is not at issue here, Would you keep in mind the
fact that, with the offensive weapons the Soviets
have deployed both on the earth and in orbit, we
need something that at least has a chance against
incoming missiles and satellite weapons. Are you
"for" anything or just "against"?
The ABM concept was tested (without nuclear warheads) in the Pacific. A ballistic missile was
fired from Vandenburg AFB and was "successfully"
intercepted by the proposed Safeguard system, whose
defensive missiles were fired from a South Pacific
island. These were "computer-controlled" tests. I
think therein lies one of the differences between
people like yourself and people like me. I will
believe information given out by my government, as
long as it's within reason and I have no factual
evidence to the contrary. There is none relative
to Safeguard.
You seem to have a large worry about computer
control of missile flight. All missile flights
now are controlled, at least in their powered portion, by computers; "ground to ground", "flir to
ground", "ground to air", "sea to ground", etc.,
etc.
Is it your contention that they don't really
work? We know that at least some of them do; from
Vietnam where some are in use, from NASA work which
you seem to disregard, from Poseidon~tests, etc. A
word about NASA whose experience you sneer at.
One of the complexities which must be dealt with
in manned flights so far, is the use of liquid fuels
This one fact requires an unbelievable increase in
missile complexity, hence the 30 to 45 day simulatiol
for checkout. My point here is that you're talking
about two different systems designed to do two different jobs. They can be related in overall terms
(complex computer use), but not in specifics (120
day freeze). You and your ilk are comparing apples
and oranges and then going into a funk because
they're not the same color.
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for September, 1971
A note about your organization, if I may: Of the
listed sponsors, I note that 16 of the 23 are connected with various universities as "professorial
talent". A majority of people from the academic
~orld have displayed over the past several years,
no real un~erstanding of the world or human nature.
They are certainly not responsible in any way for
the defense of the United States, indeed, in some
cases don't even seem to care. The quality of their
judgment, and handiwork, can be seen in the disruption of educational processes in many universities.
Just as a small minority of students were capable
of such disruptions with the, at best, passive acceptance of a majority of the "professorial talent",
now a small minority of "computer professionals"
are attempting to negate the ability of the U.S. to
protect itself as a society. By what possible
stretching of the imagination do you set yourself
up to say how wecan best protect our country when
you don't have all the information that is necessary
to make that decision. Much of it is of a "secret"
nature and must be so. Your conclusions in such a
context must be suspect.
This is the first time I have written a letter
such as this, but I couldn't let your "Computer
Professionals against ABM" and your sister organization "Computer Professionals for Peace" speak for
me. I have been in the Programming/Systems line of
work for 11 years, and I consider myself a "computer
professional". Your group does not speak for me,
nor I suspect, will it ever. You apparently see the
world as you wish it were, rather than as it really
is. Laudable for your OW? peace of mind certainly,
but not a view Americans, as a people, can afford
in this very predatory world. Would it were otherwise, but it isn't.
GATHERING FORCE AGAINST THE ABM
(Based on a report by Victor K. McElheny, "The
Boston Globe" April 4, 1971)
Daniel D. McCracken, chairman of the national
group called Computer Professionals Against ABM,
is traveling around the country addressing computer
engineers' groups on the vulnerability of the ABM's
computers. In an interview, McCracken said he is
leaving aside other opponents' charges about the
vulnerability of the ABM system's radars or the
possibility that an enemy would simply build more
offensive missiles, equipped with increasingly accurate multiple warheads, to overwhelm any defense.
Among the sponsors of the Computer Professionals
Against ABM are such well-known computer engineers
as Prof. Robert M. Fano of the MAC computer timesharing project at MIT; Prof. J.C.R. Licklider, who
succeeded Fano as MAC's director; and Prof. Marvin
L. Minsky, who concentrates on "artificial intelligence."
The computer engineers argue that every major
system tried up to now, such as airline
reservations set-ups, has always had major breakdowns in the period immediately after entering service.
~omputer
After a time, the "bugs" are ironed out and the
system works. But with the ABM there would be no
time. It would have to work right in its first and
possibly sole test. The computer engineers say that
20 years experience with new systems makes it a sure
bet that the system wouldn't work to its design efficiency the first time.
35
COMMUNICAliON AND CIPHERS
with a Hexadecimal Alphabet and Variations
"With the advent of computers to produce ciphers, to perform enciphering and deciphering
and to solve ciphering systems, probably a new level uf complexity in ciphering systems
becomes thoroughly practical. "
1. D.N. Minot
Lexington Research
10 Muzzey St.
Lexington, MA 02173
MR EDMUND BERKELEEE
COMPUTERS AND AUTOMATAEON
Julius Caesar
SUPPOSE YOU HAVE ONLEE A HECSADECAEMAL ALPHABET
OR SAECSTEEN CHARACTERS.
YOU CAN NEVERTHELESS COMMVNAECATE PRETTEE VVELL.
DGUST PHOR ECSAMPLE CONSAEDER: DSERO ONE TVVO
THREE PHOUR PHAEVE SAECS SEVEN EAEGHT NAENE TEN
ELEVEN TVVELVE.
USE lIH PHOR BLANCCS AND HHHH PHOR STOPS.
o N MAENOT
LECSAENGTON RESEARCH
ABC D E PH G H AE DG CC L M N 0 P CV R S T V V
VV CS EE DS
- - -
----
2. From the Editor
MR O. N. MAENOT
LECSAENGTON RESEARCH
DEAR MR MAE NOT
THANCC EEOU PHOR EEOUR STAEMULATAENG SUGGESTAEON OPH
A HECSADECAEMAL ALPHABET. AE HOPE THAT VVE AT
COMPUTERS AND AUTOMATAEON CAN DO SOMETHAENG AENTERESTAENG VVAETH AET.
EEOURS SAENCERELEE
EDMUND Co BERKELEEE
3. Neil Macdonald
Assistant Editor, Computers and Automation
Interest in ciphers has persisted probably for
much longer than 3000 years. The first known historical instance of true cryptography -- use of a
cipher for purposes of secrecy -- is contained in
a tiny cuneiform tablet only about 3 inches by
2 inches dating from about 1500 B.C. and found
on the site of ancient Seleucia on the banks
of the Tigris. It contains the earliest known
formula for the making of glazes for pottery.
(from p. 75, The Code Breakers, by David Kahn,
published by the Macmillan ·Co., New York, 1967,
1164 pp.)
In the first century B.C., Julius Caesar used a
cipher in which each letter of the plaintext was
replaced by the third letter down the alphabet.
Thus the word "Gallia" would be changed into the
word JDOOLD (using our alphabet, not the Roman one),
since J is the third letter from G, D is the third
letter from A, etc. The ciphers in which each letter is replaced by the same other letter are called
substitution ciphers; they are regularly extremely
easy to solve because they do not conceal the frequency with which letters occur. The commonest letter is almost always E; the next group is TAO N;
the next group after that is IRS H; until finally
the rarest letters are Q X J Z (See Table 3).
Disguising the Frt!quency of Letters
Now if we use an alphabet with less than 26 characters into which we put a message, we are compelled
to make some conventions so that all the letters of
the plaintext are expressed. And we have an intriguing possibility that we might be able to disguise
greatly the frequency of the letters and thus enhance
the security of the cipher. However we have to pay
a cost: we incur the risk of giving the reader so
much trouble that he cannot easily decipher what we
are seeking to tell him.
For example in his hexadecimal alphabet, Minot
proposes the digram AE for I. The digram AE is
exceedingly rare in modern English words; so the
reader would have almost no trouble guessing whenever he sees it that I is intended. But Minot
proposes EE for Y. The digram EE is not rare in
English; in fact, it occurs in many words such as
"been", "meet" etc., and so the reader has the burden of determining from the context whether EE is
intended or Y is intended; probably examples could
be constructed in which a small neighboring context
would not be sufficient to resolve the ambiguity.
The Minot Hexadecimal Alphabet has the following
properties:
10 letters have gone: F I J K Q U W X Y Z
7 letters remain, unambiguous: B L M NOR T
9 letters have become ambiguous: A C D E G H
P S V
Appearance
The Seleucian scribe used cuneiform signs for
syllables for encip'hering, selecting rare meanings
of the signs. His method resembles the method of
George Bernard Shaw in spelling "fish" as "GHOTI",
using "GH" as in "rough", 0 as in "women" and TI as
in "nation".
36
Probably the first question to be asked then is
this: Suppose we use the Minot Hexadecimal Alphabet
(MHA). What would the results look like in a number
of passages? Would they be easily readable? Could
the resulting ambiguities be easily handled by the
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for September, 1971
recognizing capacity that ordinary human beings acquire?
As a test, we placed the MHA into an enciphering
program on our DEC PDP-9 computer and encoded a number of sample passages. The results are shown in
Table 1. (For the explicit decipherment of these
passages, see Table 2). From insp-ection of the samples in Table 1, it seems that it would be relatively
easy to communicate using the MHA.
Frequency of Letters
The next question to be asked is: How would this
alphabet affect the frequency of letters, which is
the key to deciphering a message? Table 3, columns
(1) and (2) show the usual frequency of letters in
English. This table is taken from a report published
in "Elementary Cryptanalysis" by Helen Fouch~ Gaines,
published by the American Photographic Publishing
Co., Boston, Mass., 1939 (reprinted by Dover Publications, New York, 1956).
Using the frequency shown in Column (2), we can
calculate the frequency that would result in long
passages using the MHA. This is shown in Column (3)
of Table 3. E would become much more frequent still,
and the three least frequent letters would be B, G,
and M. Probably, deciphering substitution ciphers
would remain far too easy.
Expansion of the Principle
of the Minot Hexadecimal Alphabet
When we abandon the one-to-one correspondence of
the ordinary substitution cipher (which we do with
the Minot Hexodecimal alphabet), we have the following general situation:
1. We choose n different letters to constitute the-enciphering alphabet, 5-= n~25.
2. Some letters of the plaintext alphabet are
represented by a pair of letters in the
cipher alphabet, other letters by a single letter.
3. We can use the left-over letters for any
purpose we desire including (1) random
"nulls," letters which have no meaning
or (2) al ternati ves to letters which
have meaning.
4. We can have an exact deciphering or an
ambiguous deciphering (as with the MHA)
The Macdonald Decimal Alphabet
We can extend the principles of the MHA in a
number of directions. One example of its extension
is what we might call the Macdonald Decimal Alphabet:
Table 1
Table 2
THE MINOT HEXADECIMAL ALPHABET
USED IN SOME SAMPLE PASSAGES
THE SAMPLE PASSAGES IN ORDINARY ENGLISH
AT THE SAME TAEME THAT THAES MAAEN
STREAM OPH AVTOMATAEC DAEGAETAL
COMPVTAENG HAS BEEN DEVELOPAENG
AND ECSPANDAENGI OTHER STREAMS OPH
AVTOMATAEC HANDLAENG OPH AENPHORMATAEON
HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED AND ECSPANDED.
AT THE SAME TIME THAT THIS MAIN STREAM
OF AUTOMATIC DIGITAL COMPUTING HAS
BEEN DEVELOPING AND EXPANDINGI OTHER
STREAMS OF AUTOMATIC HANDLING OF
INFORMATION HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED AND
EXPANDED.
THE MOST ADVANCED COMPVTERS OPH THE
PRESENT DAEE ARE CALLED SOLAED STATE
COMPVTERSI BECAVSE THEEE MACCE
ECSTENSAEVE VSE OPH SOLA ED STATE
ELECTRONAEC DEVAECES SVCH AS
TRANSAESTORSI GERMANAEVM DAEODESI
AND MAGNETAEC SHAEPHT REGAESTERSI
NOT ELECTRONAEC TVBES.
THE MOST ADVANCED COMPUTERS OF THE
PRESENT DAY ARE CALLED SOLID STATE
COMPUTERSI BECAUSE THEY MAKE EXTENSIVE
USE OF SOLID STATE ELECTRONIC DEVICES
SUCH AS TRANSISTORSI GERMANIUM DIODESI
AND MAGNETIC SHIFT REGISTERSI NOT
ELECTRONIC TUBES.
TO VSE PVNCH CARD MACHAENESI VVE
PHAERST CONVERT THE ORAEGAENAL
AENPHORMATAEON AENTO PATTERNS OPH
HOLES AEN CARDS.
THEN VVE PHEED
THE CARDS AENTO THE MACHAENES.
ELECTRAECAL AEMPVLSES READ THE PATTERN
OPH HOLES AND CONVERT THEM AENTO
A PATTERN OPH TAEMED ELECTRAECAL
C VRRENTS.
TO USE PUNCH CARD MACHINESI WE FIRST
CONVERT THE ORIGINAL INFORMATION
INTO PATTERNS OF HOLES IN CARDS.
THEN WE FEED THE CARDS INTO THE
MACHINES.
ELECTRICAL IMPULSES READ
THE PATTERN OF HOLES AND CONVERT
THEM INTO A PATTERN OF TIMED ELECTRICAL
CURRENTS.
VVHAT A COMPVTER DOES PHROM ONE
OPERATAEON TO THE NECST AES DETERMAENED
BEE THE CONTROL VNAET.
THE CONTROL
VNAET CONSAESTS BASAECALLEE OPH A
REGAESTER VVHAECH CONTAAENS AN
AENSTRVCTAEONI THE CVRRENT AENSTRVCTAEON
VVHAECH SETS THE SVVAETCHES THROVGHOVT
THE MACHAENE PHOR THE NECST TRANSPHER
OPH AENPHORMATAEON.
WHAT A COMPUTER DOES FROM ONE OPERATION
TO THE NEXT IS DETERMINED BY THE
CONTROL UNIT.
THE CONTROL UNIT CONSISTS
BASICALLY OF A REGISTER WHICH CONTAINS
AN INSTRUCTIONI THE CURRENT INSTRUCTION
WHICH SETS THE SWITCHES THROUGHOUT
THE MACHINE FOR THE, NEXT TRANSFER
OF INFORMATION.
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for September, 1971
37
1. The vowels A E IOU remain single letters
and are replaced by C G K Q W respectively.
2. The remaining letters are grouped:
group B is BCD;
group F is F G H;
.group J is J K L M N;
group P is P Q R S T;
and group V is V W X Y Z.
3. The consonants from B to Z are expressed by
pairs of letters as follows:
B C D-
F GH-
BB
BF
BJ
FB
FF
FJ
J KL MN-
JB
JF
JJ
JP
JV
P QRS T -
PB
PF
PJ
PP
PV
V - VB
W-VF
X - VJ
Y - VP
Z - VV
The scheme of representation is quite evident.
There is no ambiguity. The 10 letters that are
used are B C F G J K P Q V W. The l~ letters that
are not used are A D E H I L M NOR STU X Y Z.
These 16 letters are nulls. They can be sprinkled
in the message in any desired or random fashion
which might conceal the frequencies of the significant letters, which are the tell-tale indications
by means of which decipherment may be achieved.
Table 3
The results of using the Macdonald Decimal Alphabet but without inserting nulls on the passages given
in Table 2 are shown in Table 4.
Comments
In the literature of cryptography and cryptanalysis, I have not seen any discussion of ciphering
systems such as the Minot Hexadecimal Alphabet and
the Macdonald Decimal Alphabet. With the advent of
computers to produce ciphers, to perform enciphering and deciphering, and to solve ciphering systems,
probably a new level of complexity in ciphering
systems becomes thoroughly practical.
"Computers and Automation" invites discussion of
enciphering, deciphering, and cryptanalytic systems
using computer methods.
Table 4
THE SAME PASSAGES IN MACDONALD DECIMAL
ALPHABET ARRANGED IN FIVE-LETTER GROUPS
CPVPV
JKPPJ
CPVKB
FFFJC
JVBJG
VPJGC
BJJJK
JCVBG
GVJPB
FJGPP
PCKJV
FBJKF
PPBBG
VJPBC
JPPPQ
JVFFQ
CJJPP
CJVBJ
CJPGP
PPPVP
FKPVC
GJVBJ
JVBJK
FBCWP
FBKJV
QBJGV
GBJ
VKJPG
JGCJP
JJBFQ
GVBGJ
JVFFQ
VQJPC
FBQPJ
BGJJQ
PVFJC
QFBCW
JPPBW
JQPBK
PVFJG
PVKBF
JPCPV
PBGBJ
PVPVF
PVQJP
PVKJV
JVFFC
PJPPP
FJCJV
KQJVF
CJVBJ
PVF JG
PBWPV
BJCVP
VCPVG
PVFJG
GQFBP
QJVKB
JCJVP
BJKQB
JKFBP
B F'PVP
JPQPP
GPJPP
CPJGB
BFQJP
VPJPC
PQJJK
FBJGV
PKPPP
JGPPC
VPJGF
JQJVK
PVCBJ
QFBPV
FCJJJ
PBWPV
JF'GGV
BJPPP
BKBFG
VQPJP
JVBJJ
FKPPP
BF'PV\.,J
VBCJV
FJGPB
JGBJP
GPJPP
JPVGJ
VCPVG
PPPPW
PF'F'GP
PC FF' J
VGPJP
BBGPP
BFGBJ
PJGPP
PQJJK
BBGBF
VPPKV
GJJGB
BF'FJC
JJPCJ
VGPVK
PJVQP
BF'QJP
GJVPV
BJPPP
CWPPG
BGWPP
FPVPJ
PPPVP
VKWJP
BF'PPF
VGJJG
RELATIVE FREQUENCY OF LETTERS
(1)
Letter
A
B
C
D
E
7.81
1.28
2.93
4.11
13.05
12.81
1.12
3.70
3.89
20.08
F
2.88
1.39
5.85
6.77
.23
0
1.62
7.67
0
0
L
M
N
0
.42
3.60
2.62
7.28
8.21
0
3.16
2.30
6.40
7.21
P
Q
R
S
T
2.15
.14
6.64
6.46
9.02
4.42
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5.83
6.02
7.92
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V
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2.77
1.00
1.49
.30
1. 51
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0
0
0
0
0
0
G
H
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K
X
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Z
Total
38
(2)
(3)
Relative Frequency
Relative
Frequency in
in Minot
Ordinary English Hexadecimal
(Qercent)
(Qercent)
100%
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100%
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for September, 1971
As "Grass Roots"
Goals Committee
Chairman, he's
battling the blamethe-computer
syndrome.
David Wollin, B.S. Engineering
Science, is a Senior Systems Analyst
with a ticket reservations systems
service, developing application
software. He joined ACM in 1966,
fresh out of college. "After four years,
I wanted more involvement as a computer professional," says Dave. "More
than meetings, lectures and technical
publications. ACM seemed sort of
clannish. I felt the average member
wasn't encouraged to participate.
"Last October I wrote ACM President
Walter Carlson with some specific
suggestions. Now I'm heading the
newly-formed "Grass Roots" Committee. Our job is to critique ACM's
proposed goals on membership development, special interest activities,
EDP curricula and public education.
And come up with other goals we
think are just as important.
"This effort could mean a lot in the
next few years. I've wanted to speak
up on some things that have been
bugging me. Things I see ACM taking
a stronger stand on. Like people
blaming mistakes on the computer.
The need to cut down on hard copy
to avoid waste. The privacy issue.
The whole question of the computer's
impact on society, I guess."
Dave is only one of 27,000 members
of ACM, the oldest and most
respected professional association
in the computer field. He's enriching
his career. Making a contribution
to the computer profession. And
being heard.
Look into joining ACM. Fill out and
mail the coupon today.
Association for Computing Machinery
1133 Avenue of the Americas
New York, New York 10036
I would like to consider joining ACM.
Please send more information.
Association
for Computing
Machinery
Name
Position
Address
City
State
Zip
ACROSS THE EDITOR'S DESK
APPLICATIONS
METALS INVENTORY SYSTEM
BASED ON PRODUCT NAMES
INSTEAD OF 10-DIGIT NUMBERS
Standard Brass & Manufacturing
Co., Port Arthur, Texas, has ins talled an IBM Sys tem/3 Model 10 to
handle a complex metals inventory
system based on product description,
rather than conventional product
numbers. The Port Arthur company,
a producer and wholesaler of aluminum, brass, copper and steel, devised the novel approach to simplify its method of accounting
for stock.
"This significant departure from
the traditional way of tracking our
stock wi 11 improve our accuracy,"
said F. V. Wilson, company presiiden t, "and our people no longer
will have to thumb through-- -thick
stock code books to code -- or decode -- items of merchandise."
Us ing numbers to account for its
supplies, an order for a rec tangularshaped ingot of free-cutting brass
would have had to be recorded as
an order for a 030011001~ The IBM
system, however, will accept the
description "rectangular free-cutting brass," a standard term in
the metals industry. The only numbers now involved will be the quantity and the dimensions desired.
To further s impl ify the inventory
procedure, the computing system is
being programmed to accept abbreviations, such as "rect" for rectangular and "FC" for free-cutting.
The IBM system will keep up-todate inventory reports for the
firm's nine warehouses, located in
Houston, Port Arthur and Beaumont,
Texas, and New Orleans, Lafayette,
Shreveport and Baton Rouge, La.
COMPUTER HELPS FIND
UNDETECTED DISEASES
A new medical testing program
for detecting diseases even before
early symptoms appear, especially_
among inner-city residents, is un~
derway at Good Samaritan Hospi tal
(Cincinnati, Ohio). The federallyfunded pilot proj ect has enabled
doctors, using an IBM computer, to
uncover illnesses and diseases among
people who didn't realize they were
sick.
The program, funded by a
Regional Medical Program grant froll
the U.S. Department of Health.
Education and Welfare, also is used
in conj unc tion wi th neighborhood
40
organizations to provide many innerci ty residents free annual checkups.
"We have revealed 50 diabetics
and hypertensive people, placed 300
overweight people on weight reduction programs and found several
cases of elevated cholesterol, thyroid disease and breas t cancer -all among people who were not aware
they suffered from these problems
but had been referred to the hospi tal for other reasons," explained
Dr. George Shields, director of
medical systems.
The program, called "mul ti-phas ic
testing", involves a series of basic
tes ts which are adminis tered to
newly admi t ted patients by qual ified
professionals such as nurses and
technicians. The tes ting procedure
begins shortly after the patient is
admitted.
He fills out a preprinted computer form describing
his medical history and specifies
any health problems or complaints.
Nurses then administer several routine tests. The results, analyzed
automatically by the computer, are
presented in a convenient format
for quick reference by doctors.
At present, only those patients
whose doctors have specifically
reques ted it are tes ted by the
new system.
"A patient treated under the new
program does not feel he is being
subj ected to anything different,"
Dr. Shields said. "The tests given
are the same as before.
But, because thepatient's doctor is freed
from routine testing responsibilities, he has more time for diagnosis
and counselling."
IBM COMPUTER WORKS
AT FUN CENTER
An IBM Sys tem/3 Model 10 computer
has been put to work behind the
scenes at Cedar Point (Sandusky,
Ohio) so that vis i tors to the northwestern Ohio amusement park can have
more fun. For the fiscal year ended
March 31, 1971, visitors to Cedar
Point took 41.5 million rides on
such things as dodgems, double ferris
wheel, antique cars, roller coasters
and a variety of boa ts. The compu ter is enabling operating and administrative personnel to better manage
the people and resources required
for the park, which last year hosted
some 2.5 million people.
Some of the requirements of the
operation are unusual among businesses.
For example, in preparation for the peak season, employmen t jumps from approxima te ly 200
people to over 2,300.
Processing
of paychecks, hours worked and other
employment cons iderations alone have
been greatly reduced and simplified
by the new sys tern.
The computer
also produces accounts payable re-
-- Controller Phil Lauser
reviews computer printout
ports, controls inventory of souvenirs and other sale items, and
tabulates such things as unit cost
per ride.
A reservation system for
the park's "Breaker's" hotel also
will be added to the system soon.
PUBLIC LIBRARY INSTALLS
COMPUTER FOR PUBLIC USE
Simple mathematical or complex
engineering and scientific problems
can be solved on the coin-operated
computer which has been added to the
services offered by the Monterey
Public Library in Monterey, Calif.
It is the first coin-operated computer for public use in the United
States, according to the library.
The installation operates the
same _as coin-operated telephones.
typewriters, and copy machines.
The user simply inserts a coin which
allows him to use the computer for
a predetermined amount of time. A
red light comes on when less than
60 seconds remain which allows him
to ei ther complete his problem or
insert additional coins.
The computer, a Hewlett-Packard
9100 system, has 16 storage registers and a 196-s tep program memory.
Operation and programming is simple
as there is no progranming "language"
to learn. Data is entered through
either the keyboard, magnetic card
reader, or an attached HP-9160A
Marked Card Reader.
This enables
the user to prepare his programs at
the office, home or school. No key-
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for September, 1971
punch equipment is required. Output
is via a cathode ray display tube
which displays three registers. A
printer can also be added i f desired.
and ethyl mercaptan - which smells
like rotten eggs. He then records
the resulting electrical activity
in their brains.
Free key code cards, program
cards and programming sheets are
available at the computer. In addition, programs can be recorded on
a wallet-size magnetic program card.
Data can be entered and/or displayed
in fixed or floating decimal point
notation.
The odor-induced changes in the
brain's electrical activi ty cause
the alternating current voltage to
rise from a norm of 50-100 microvol ts to around 500 microvol ts.
There also are significant changes
in the electrical patterns and frequencies generated by the brain.
By studting the statistical analyses
produced by the IBM sys tern, Dr.
Benignus hopes to determine how the
brain codes information from the
sense of smell. The factors he uncovers also may apply to the other
senses and to humans as well as
lower animals.
Some researchers
suspect there may be connections between the sense of smell and such
traits as learning and behavior.
M. J. B. Flippin, Technical Director and founder of the Monterey
firm, Computer Rental Service, which
installed the computer, said, " •••
We feel there is a large segment of
the population who would like to
use a small computing system ••. Our
installation is aimed primarily at
those of today's society who are
familiar wi th mathematics and the
computer and what it can do for
them •.• Typical users would be students, professional engineers, land
surveyors and so forth." In addition to individual uses of the machine, it is recommended by the library for preliminary work to save
time on larger computer services.
COMMON CATFISH
AIDS RESEARCH INTO
SENSE OF SMELL
Dr. Vernon A. Benignus, a Trini ty
Universi ty psychologist, is using
an IBM computer, catfish and foulsmelling chemicals to learn more
about the olfactory mechanism or sense of smell the leastunderstood of the five animal senses.
When a fish is exposed to unpleasant odors, says Dr. Benignus, the
electrical activi ty in its brain
suddenly increases.
He believes
that smells are coded by an animal's
brain into electrical signals. Understanding this code could reveal
secrets of the olfactory sense and
also provide valuable knowledge
about how the brain works.
In hi s experimen ts, Dr. Benignus
surgically implants tiny electrodes
into the brains of catfish. He exposes the fish to very small doses
of chemicals such as morphylene
which smells 1 ike dirty socks -
HEART DISEASE TREATMENT
AND RESEARCH AT REINGOLD
ECG CENTER
The Reingold Elec trocardiographic
Center (Evanston, 111.), an example
of shared services in the Northwestern University-McGaw Medical
Center, was organized in 1964 to
provide
complete elec trocardiographic services on a 24-hour-a-day
basis. Electrocardiograms are transmitted by common carrier telephone
lines from Chicago Wesley Memorial
and Passavant Memorial hospi tals,
the Rehabilitation Institute of
Chicago, and the Northwestern Medical School clinics to the Center.
The installation of a new computer facility in the Reingold ECG
Center provides virtually immediate
interpretation of electrocardiograms. Previously, 24 to 48 hours
were required for the participating
hospi tals to receive interpreted
records.
The ECG Center also is devoted
to basic and clinical research in
the broad field of elec trocardiology, including cardiac elec trophys iology. Particular emphas is is
placed on studies designed to find
the causes of disturbances of cardiac rate and rhythm in patients wi th
heart disease, the modes of action
of drugs used to treat these disturbances, and on techniques for
diagnostic and therapeutic use in
patients. There are, currently on
file in the Center, more than
125,000 electrocardiograms, recording over 6,000,000 heartbea ts. Au tomation of data acquisi tion, processing and analysis accomplished by the
new computer facili tates both teaching and research in the Center.
Northwes tern's ECG sys tern, the
fi rs t of its type in the country,
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for September, 1971
permits ready expansion of service
to addi tional interested insti tutions irrespective of their distance to the University. All that
is needed to install the system is
an ECG transmitter and one or more
standard telephone wall jacks.
COMPUTERIZED BUOY
ENTERS FIGHT AGAINST
POLLUTION
A giant, computerized buoy has
entered the fight against water
pollution in Massachusetts Bay. The
114-foot, 18, OOO-pound buoy was anchored this past July, at a point in
the Bay four miles north of Boston
Ligh t Vessel, by a team of divers
and crew riggers, for Profes sor
Erik Mollo-Christensen of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
The buoy's new research undertaking
is being sponsored by the Office
of Naval Research and the National
Science Foundation. (The data also
will be used in research programs
sponsored by the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration under the Sea Grant Program.)
The buoy is to be a key element
in the Mas sachuset ts Bay Area Study.
The importance of the buoy's da ta
to this study involves how pOllutan ts and other properties of the
wa ter are transported in the Bay
and adj acent waters by currents and
eddies.
Prof. MollO-Christensen,
who designed the buo~ says it will
be used to do "research on air-sea
interaction and transport and mixing processes in a ir and wa ter".
The buoy has been used in other airsea in terac t ion research for the
Rast year at a point off the coast
of Martha's Vineyard.
For its new undertaking in the
Bay, the buoy is equipped wi th a
variety of instruments.
A fortyfoot radio tower atop the buoy will
beam the data from these instruments
to a tower on the 20-s tory M. 1. T.
Center for Earth Sciences building
in Cambridge (Mass.). The data then
will be fed into a computer in the
Earth Sc ience Building, where it
will be stored and available for
recall and summarization.
EDUCATION NEWS
LEHIGH UNIVERSITY'S COMPUTER
TO SERVICE 6 OTHER COLLEGES
THROUGH REMOTE FACILITIES
Beginning this month, Lafayette
College, Moravian College, Muhlenberg College, Cedar Crest College,
Allentown College, and Wilkes College (all of Pennsylvania), will
41
be linked to Lehigh Universi ty' 5
CDC 6400 compu ter through a new
computer network. Supported by an
ini tial grant of $81,000 from the
National Science Foundation, the
Lehigh Universi ty-based network has
bee-n designed to increase the utilization of computers in the undergraduate educational processes of
the 6 other colleges, which, together
with Lehigh,willcontribute approximately $150,000 to the project.
Dr. John E. Walker, associate
professor of economics and Computer
Center manager of user applications
at Lehigh, will direct the Lehighbased network, which will be known
as the Lehigh Valley Regional Computing Network (LVRCN).
In preparation for the September
s tart of the network, Lehigh Uni versi ty conducted an intensive,. sixweek seminar and workshop program
this summer for 19 faculty members
from the 6 other colleges. Related
training programs will be held for
them a t Lehigh during the 1971-72
academic year and again next summer
(1972). The training programs for
the faculty members of the 6 participating colleges are being conducted
at Lehigh to aid them in developing
new computer-oriented curricula on
their own campuses.
Similar college computer networks
are being established in various
parts of the country with funding
by NS~ including those at the University of Pittsburgh and Pennsylvania State University. The three
networks in Pennsylvania, including
the one at Lehigh, will form the
nucleus of PRISE (Pennsylvania's
Regional Instructional System for
Education).
SPECIAL B.S. PROGRAM
IN COMPUTER SCIENCE
FOR TRANSFER STUDENTS
Hofstra University, Hempstead,
N. Y., is inaugurating a special
Bachelor of Science program in Computer Science and Systems Analysis
~esigned specifically for transfer
students from two-year colleges who
have maj ored in the computer science
field.
This new program, not yet available to students who attend Hofstra
from their freshman year, allows
the transfer student who has taken
a program of basic computer courses
at a two-year institution, to apply
those credits wi th full academic
.) tanding up to 64 credi t hours,
toward a Bachelor of Science degree
from Hofstra. For information about
thi s new program, con tac t :
Dean;
Rich~rd T. Bennett, Dean of Admissions and Financial Aid, Hofstra
University, Hempstead, NY 11550.
42
PEPPERDINE UNIV. GRANTS
DEGREE CREDITS TO
HONEYWELL GRADUATES
Students completing a course in
computer sciences at any of the
Honeywell Institute of Information
Sciences (HIlS) schools will be
eligible to recei ve 20 credi ts toward
a bachelor of science degree in
administrative science at Pepperdine University in Los Angeles, it
is announced by Honeywell and the
university.
Pepperdine becomes the first
universi ty in California to award
college credi t to graduates of an
industry-operated computer institute. Dr. Donald R. Sime, dean of
the Universi ty's School of Business,
said the agreement wi th Honeywell
is part of the university's continuing policy of cooperating wi th
industry in developing programs that
relate to present-day requirements
of the business community.
Stephen V. Tri tto, manager of
Honeywell's Insti tute in Southern
California, said about 40 per cent
of s tuden ts attending the Ins ti tu te' s
schools do not have college degrees
and therefore can benefit from the
new agreement with the university.
MISCELLANEOUS
COMPUTER PRINTS KANJI
IBM Japan, Ltd., recently announced the IBM Kanj i Da ta Proces sing System.
The system, designed
to serve the linguistic needs of
many East Asian peoples, can enter
'into a computer, or print out, any
of approximate ly 10,000 Kanj i characters, ideographs widely used in
all forms of written communication
in Japan and in the Chinese-speaking
areas of Asia. The system consists
of an impact printer, a Kanji keyboard at tachmen t to the IBM 029
card punch and a matrix character
generation program package.
The system's printer, the IBM
2245, opera tes a t a speed of 330
lines a minute,with 16 Kanji characters to a line.
Characters are
printed by.a series of overlapping
"dots" which create straight or
curved lines.
The Kanji keyboard
consists of an array of 3,600 selected characters or symbols.
An
additional 7,000 characters can be
printed by use of 100 reference
codes and character references.
The system is sui ted for computer
applications in the printing of
mailing addresses, stock and insurance certific~tes~ bills, invoices
and a wide range of financial documents. It also can be used in information retrieval applications
and to provide proof copy in prin ting and publishing applications.
In addition to Kanji, thesystem
also can print letters in the Japanese Hiragana and Katakana alphabets, the Roman alphabet, numerals
and other symbols. The printer and
Kanj i keyboard attachment will be
manufactured at the IBM Japan, Ltd.
plant in Fujisawa, Japan.
BOSTON MUSEUM OF SCI ENCE
WILL DISPLAY COMPUTER
PUBLIC CAN OPERATE
The Boston Museum of Science and
Honeywell Inc. have announced that
a compu ter exhibi t "designed to cas t
aside the shroud of mystery surrounding these tools" will be the
largest industry-sponsored ex~ibit
in the Museum's new West Wing. (The
museum is located in Boston, Mass.)
Museum President D.Reid Weedon Jr.
said the Honeywell gift, first for
the Wing, will give visitors "an
unequalled opportuni ty to get acquainted wi th one of the most widely
used, and yet least understood,
technological achievements."
At the meeting announcing the
exhibit, C. W. Spangle, Honeywell
executive vice president, said,
"Today many people are afraid of
compu ters.
People think of compu ters as things tha t get credi t
card accounts into such a state
that one's credit rating is destroyed. Or, worse yet, that computers are collecting dossiers on
all of us and hence invading our
privacy." Actually, he said, computers expand the capabili ties of
the human brain - and always at
the di rec tion of humans.
Other
tools have helped ease man's physical labor, but the computer "is
helping man's mind," Spangle said.
The museum's exhibi t will center
on aworking Model 316with statior.s
where visi tors may try their hand
at computer operation. A choice of
programs will allow the visitor to
solve mathematical problems, simulate a moon landing, play word
games or test his knowledge of current events~ It will be operative
when the West Wing opens in a few
months.
The second part of the exhibit,
scheduled to be installed by mid1972, will illustrate present and
fu ture uses of the computer wi th
slide shows, films, pushbutton devices and recordings.
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for September, 1971
NEW CONTRACTS
ITT Arctic Services, Inc.,
Paramus, N.J.
u.s.
GTE Sylvania Inc., Communication Systems Div.,
Needham, Mass.
Air Force Space and Missile
Systems Organization
Federal Electric Corp. (ITT
Service Associate), Paramus,
N.J.
National Aeronautics and Space
Administration
The National Cash Register
Co., Dayton, Ohio
Sumitomo Bank, Osaka,
Japan
Singer Co., Librascope Div.,
Glendale, Calif.
U.S. Naval Ordnance Systems
Command
The Ingersoll Milling Machine Co., Rockford, Ill.
Data Products Corp., Telecommunications Div., Stamford, Conn.
Cummins Engine Co., Inc.,
Columbus, Ind.
Federal Aviation Agency
Burroughs Corp., Detroit,
Mich.
Ohio Valley Data Control, Inc.
Belpre, Ohio
Computer Sciences Corp.,
Los Angeles, Calif.
NASA
NORTEC Electronics Corp.,
Santa Clara, Calif.
General Dynamics, San Diego,
Calif.
Omron Tateisi Electronics Co.
of Japan
Air Force Space and Missile
Systems Organization
Ampex Corp., Redwood City,
Calif.
Illinois Dept. of Law Enforcement, Springfield, Ill.
University Computing Co.,
Dallas, Texas
Digital Development Corp.,
San Diego, Calif.
Computer Systems Engineering,
Inc., North Billerica, Mass.
Taylor Publishing Co.,
Dallas, Texas
Rohr Corp., Chula Vista,
Calif.
Federal Aviation Administration
Computer Communications, Inc.,
Culver City, Calif.
Boeing Computer Services, Inc.
Trans-A-File Systems Co.,
Sunnyvale, Calif.
Colonial Penn Group Data Corp.
Cornell Aeronautical Laboratory, Inc.} Buffalo, N.Y.
SYSTEMS Engineering Laboratories, Fort Lauderdale, Fla.
Conrac Corporation,
New York, N. Y.
Federal Bureau of Investigation
Air Force
Cummins Engine Co., Columbus,
Indiana
Continental Illinois National
Bank and Trust Co. of Chicago
Biochemical Procedures,
North Hollywood, Calif.
U.S. Army
ENTREX, Inc., Burlington,
Mass.
Agricultural Records Cooperative, Madison, Wis.
Computer Identics Corp.,
Westwood, Mass.
General Trading Corp.,
Carlstadt, N.J.
Conrac Corp., Datex Div.,
Duarte , Calif.
Montreal International Airport,
Dorval, Province of Quebec~
Canada
Collins Radio Co.,
Dallas, Texas
State of Iowa Office for Planning and Programming,
Cedar Rapids, Iowa
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for September, 1971
Fiscal year funding for operation and main- $25.1 million
tenance of Distant Early Warning (DEW) System, a chain of radar and communications
sites extending from Western Alaska across
Canada and Greenland to the United Kingdom
$21.8 mi Ilion
Design, development of command and control
system that will increase targeting and communications capabilities of Minuteman intercontinental ballistic missile system
Extension (fifth year) of communications and $18,210,325
instrumentation support contract at Kennedy
Space Center bringing five year total to
$93,993,844
Four NCR Century 300 computers expanding
$9.4 million
one of world's largest on-line banking networks; installation of two systems each in
data centers in Osaka and Tokyo
Production of first units of improved anti- $7 million
submarine warfare weapon-control system for (approximate)
deployment aboard submarines
An automated manufacturing system more than $6.5+ million
700 feet in length
Addition to contract for Data Modems to be
$3.9 million
used in new nationwide FAA en-route air control system
100 Burroughs RT 2501 currency dispensers
$2.3 million
and a B 3500 computer system; fi rm performs
data processing for 32 banks and several commercial concerns throughout Ohio Valley and
West Virginia
Mathematical, analytical and operational
$2.2 million
(approximate)
support to Goddard Institute for Space
Studies in New York Cit
$2 million
MOS LSI calculator circuits for use in low
cost "personal" calculators
Development of major element of system that $1. 75 million
will overcome language barrier between different computers and permit pooling of computerized space launch vehicle guidance data
$1.2 million
A Videofile information system; will automate police records, expand state's fingerprint identification capability
Electronic pagination service for produc$1+ mi Ilion
tion of college catalogs and bulletins
DOC Model 7313 Disc Memory Systems for use in $1 million
the Rohr Automotive Material Handling System (approximate)
Design, programming and operational testing
$831,000
of metering and spacing program at Atlanta,
Ga. airport as part of FAA Automated Radar
Terminal System (ARTS) advanced system
$640,000
Two CC-70 Computer Communicator Systems to
serve as "front-ends" to large complexes of
IBM and Control Data mainframes in Seattle
and Philadelphia
TRANS-A-FILE System for total automation of $600,000
accident and health claim files and general
correspondence/policy service files
$391,248
Final phase in development and fabrication
of prototype high-speed fingerprint reader
Multiple SYSTEMS 810B computers for research $285,000+
and engineering testing of diesel engines
Computer-controlled bond board display sys- $150,000
tem; replaces existing hand-operated board;
will be controlled by firm's remote System 360
Conducting a drug identification program for
servicemen in the Sixth Army and the Pacific
Command except Vietnam and Thailand
System 480 equipment for use in preparation
of input for ARC's "Dairy Herd Improvement
Program"
An "IDENTIC" Information and Control System
to "read" order picking labels, printed by
computer, on moving cartons
An information display system including a
"Greeter's Board"; gate signs directing passengers to proper baggage claiming areas;
baggage dispenser signs; belt loading signs
A communications oriented computer system to
be used in state-wide data network TRACIS -for Traffic Records and Criminal Justice Information System
43
NEW I NSlALLAliONS
Burroughs B3500 system
Blue Cross of North Dakota,
Fargo, No. Dakota
Digital Equipment PDP-IO system
Dept. of Energy, Mines, and
Resources (EMR) , Remote Sensing
Center, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
Digital Equipment PDP-II computer
United Bristol Hospitals,
Bristol, England
(2 systems)
Y-ARD Consultants, Ltd. (Y-ARD
for Yarrow Admiralty Research
Department), Glasgow, Scotland
Gateway Press Inc.,
Monroeville, Pa.
Digital Equipment PDP-15/40 system
Honeywell Model 58 system
Honeywell Model 200 system
Honeywell Model 1250 system
Honeywell Model· 2015 system
Honeywell Model 6040 system
IBM System/3 Model 10
IBM System/370 Model 145
IBM System/370 Model 155
Hibbing Area Technical Institute,
Hibbing, Minn.
The Levinson Steel Co.,
PittSburgh, Pa.
First Federal Savings and Loan
Association, Gary, Ind.
Littlewoods Mail Order Stores,
Liverpool, England
Fidelity National Bank,
Lynchburg, Va.
Lynch Corporation,
Manchester, N.H.
Franciscan Hospitals Datacenter,
St. Clare Area House of Government,
Cincinnati, Ohio
Brown and Root, Inc.,
Houston, Tex.
Collins & Aikman, Charlotte, N.C.
Richman Brothers, Cleveland, Ohio
IBM System 370, Model 165
NCR Century 50 computer
NCR Century 100 computer
Ohio State University,
Columbus, Ohio
Asbury Park, N.J., Board of
Education
Martin Zippel Co.,
Phillipsburg, N.J.
H. A. Berkheimer Associates,
Bangor, Pa.
Cumberland County, New Jersey
City of Oceanside, California
RCA 2 system
UNIVAC 1106 system
UNIVAC 9200 system
Gulf Oil Co.-U.S.,
Atlanta , Ga.
Reader's Digest Inc.,
Pleasantville, N.Y.
Rheinische Braunkohlenwerke A.G.
(Rheinbraun) Cologne, West
Germany
Commercial Carriers Inc.,
Romulus, Mich.
Computer Information SOP,
Oklahoma City, Okla.
UNIVAC 9400 system
44
Iowa State Education Association,
Des Moines, Iowa
Southern Mortgage Associates,
Miami , Florida
Chicago Museum of Science and
Industry, Chicago, Ill.
Takashimaya Corporation,
Tokyo, Japan
Victor Company, Japan, Ltd.,
Tokyo, Japan
Processing Blue Cross, Blue Shield of North Dakota,
and Medicare tasks such as enrollment, claims adjudication, provider payments, and general accounting
(system valued at more than $1 million)
Essential part of a program to help Canada obtain
more ecological and environmental information than
was ever before feasible; system will let Canada
share data from satellite with United States
Controlling clinical laboratory equipment; maintaining in-patient, and outpatient, laboratory records
(system valued at $108,000)
Upgrading EAI 680 analog computer to a full hybrid
system to be used in marine and industrial control
systems design
PayrOll, billing, general ledger applications; also
service-bureau-type work for publisher of weekly
newspapers and printer of advertising tabloids
Student instruction in 2-year EDP course; also for
administrative work
Accounting and inventory applications
Savings account applications; will handle over
40,000 accounts
Inventory control, order processing and billing
Commercial banking applications
Cost control; accounts payable, payroll and inventory control will be added soon
Hospital drug control for seven participating hospitals; helping to comply with tougher federal drug
control laws
Design and analysis of large offshore oil platforms
Variety of applications ranging from printouts of
accounting statements, product schedules and inventory analyses to special simulation studies of profi t
projections, employee turnover and product mixes
Analyzing fast-shifting sales patterns in clothing
style, fabric, size, even geographical variation
amon 300 retail stores nationall
Upgrading main instruction and research computer
facility
Payroll, appropriation accounting, and attendance
and grade reporting
Inventory control and billing preparation
Administering its operations and processing a wide
variety of data
Variety of processing tasks; replaces smaller EDP
system
General accounting purposes; also for use by the
Police Department and the Harbor District
Sales analysis, accounts payable, inventory control
and general accounting for operations in 9 states
Controlling large number of peripheral devices
used in addressing bills and other documents
Profi tabili ty analysis of mining operations; processing engineering operations; analyzing aerial photograph measurements; also data processing for trading
companies, marketing associations, and benefit associations providing assistance for home building
(system valued at about $2 million)
Payroll processing, general accounting, financial
statements, miscellaneous reports, expense ledgers
and fixed assets accounting
Preparation of financial statements for public accountants and general ledger work; also, making
time available to students attending the Oklahoma
School of Business and Technology
Processing enrollments and accounting tasks, and
provision of statistical information
Assisting firm in servicing some 4,000 mortgages
Inventory control, purchasing, budget functions, and
payroll processing
Inventory control, accounting and payroll processing
. A material management system incorporating order
entry, order history and inventory control
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for SepTember, 1971
MONTHLY COMPUTER CENSUS
Neil Macdonald
Survey Editor
COMPUTERS AND AUTOMATION
The following is a summary made by COMPUTERS AND AUTOMATION of reports and estimates of the number of general purpose electronic digital computers manufactured and installed, or to be manufactured and on
order. These figures are mailed to individual computer manufacturers
from time to time for their information and review, and for any updating or comments they may care to provide. Please note the variation
in-dates and reliability of the information. Several important manufacturers refuse to give out, confirm, or comment on any figures.
Our census seeks to include all digital computers manufactured anywhere. We invite all manufacturers located anywhere to submit information for this census. We invite all our readers to submit information that would help make these figures as accurate and complete as
possible.
Part I of the Monthly Computer Census contains reports for United
States manufacturers. Part II contains reports for manufacturers
outside of the United States. The two parts are published in alternate months.
The following abbreviations apply:
(A) -- authoritative figures, derived essentially from information
sent by the manufacturer directly to COMPUTERS AND
AUTOMATION
C
figure is combined in a total
(D)
acknowledgment is given to DP Focus, Marlboro, Mass., for
their help in estimating many of these figures
E
figure estimated by COMPUTERS AND AUTOMATION
(N)
manufacturer refuses to give any figures on number of installations or of orders, and refuses to comment in any
way on those numbers stated here
(R)
figures derived all or in part from information released
indirectly by the manufacturer, or from reports by other
sources likely to be informed
(S)
sale only, and sale (not rental) price is stated
X
no longer in production
information not obtained at press time
SUMMARY AS OF AUGUST 15, 1971
NAME OF
MANUFACTURER
Part 1. United States Manufacturers
Autonetics
Anaheim, Calif, (R) (1/69)
Bailey Meter Co.
Wickliffe, Ohio
(A) (8/71)
Bunker-Ramo Corp.
Westlake Village, Calif.,
(A)
(7/71)
Burroughs
Detroit, Mich.
(N)
(1/69-5/69)
Computer Automation, Inc.
Newport Beach, Calif.
(A) (6/71)
Control Data Corp
Minneapolis, Minn.
(R)
(7/71)
Data General Corp.
Southboro, Mass.
(A) (8/71)
Datacraft Corp.
Ft. Lauderdale, Fla.
(A) (6/71)
Digiac Corp.
Plainview, N.Y.
(A) (7/71)
Digital Computer Controls, Inc.
Fairfield, N.J. (A) (7/71)
Digital Equipment Corp.
Maynard, Mass.
(A) (2/71)
NAME OF
COMPUTER
RECOMP II
RECOMP III
Bailey 750
Bailey 755
Bailey 756
Bailey 855/15
Bailey 855/25
Bailey 855/50
BR-l30
BR-133
BR-230
BR-300
BR-330
BR-340
BR-l018
205
220
BIOO/B500
B2500
B3500
B5500
B6500
B7500
B8500
108/208/808
116/216/816
DATE
FIRST
INSTALLATION
AVERAGE OR MNGE
OF MONTHLY RENTAL
$(000)
11/58
6/61
6/60
11/61
2/65
2.5
1.5
40-250
200-600
60-400
50-400
100-1000
100-1000
2.0
2.4
2.7
3.0
4.0
7.0
23.0
4.6
14.0
2.8-9.0
5.0
14.0
23.5
33.0
44.0
200.0
5.0
8.0
4/68
10/61
5/64
8/63
3/59
12/60
12/63
6/71
1/54
10/58
7/65
2/67
5/67
3/63
2/68
4/69
8/67
6/68
3/69
GIS
G20
LGP-2l
LGP-30
RPC4000
636/136/046 Series
160/8090 Series
924/924-A
l604/A/B
l700/SC
3100/3150
3200
3300
3400
3500
3600
3800
6400/6500
6600
6700
7600
5/60
8/61
1/60
5/66
5/64
5/64
9/65
11/64
8/68
6/63
2/66
8/64
8/64
6/67
12/68
2.1-14.0
11.0
45.0
3.8
10-16
13.0
20-38
18.0
25.0
52.0
53.0
58.0
115.0
130.9
235.0
NOVA
SUPERNOVA
NOVA 1200
NOVA 800
SUPERNOVA SC
6024/1
6024/3
6024/5
Digiac 3060
Digiac 3080
Digiac 3080C
D-112
2/69
5/70
12/71
3/71
6/71
5/69
2/70
12/71
1/70
12/64
10/67
8/70
8.0
9.6
5.4
6.9
11.9
54-300
33-200
16-50
9.0
19.5
25.0
10.0
PDP-l
PDP-4
PDP-5
11/60
8/62
9/63
3.4
1.7
0.9
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for -September, 1971
7/55
4/61
12/62
9/56
1/61
(S)
(S)
(S)
(S)
(S)
(S)
NUMBER OF INSTALLATIONS
Outside
In
In
U.S.A.
World
U.S.A.
30
6
35
6
22
0
11
0
NUMBER OF
UNFILLED
ORDERS
30
6
32
6
16
0
11
0
160
79
15
18
19
19
0
0
3
0
6
0
0
0
25-38
28-31
2
2
27-40
30-33
X
X
52-57
44
65-74
4
12
18
7
64-69
62
72-81
4
117
190
8
60
X
X
0
0
2
2
3
12
X
X
X
X
X
X
(S)
13
(S)
(S)
1
165
215
10
20
1
175
235
295
20
165
322
75
29
610
29
59
425-475
83-110
55-60
205
15
15
40
20
108
85
5
8
1.6
15.5
0.7
1.3
1.9
(S)
(S)
(S)
(S)
(S)
(S)
(S)
(S)
(S)
(S)
(S)
(S)
0
6
0
911
169
502
56
15
12
48
0
5
110
225
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
0
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
Total:
160 E
12
42
0
45
16
8
115
15
130
300
48
40
90
2
5
10
50
45
100
X
3
46
5
7
o
1
X
X
45
NAME OF
MANUFACTURER
Digital Equipment Corp. (cont'd)
Electronic Associates Inc.
Long Branch J N.J. {A) (7/71)
EHR Computer
Hinneapo lis, }finn.
(A)
(2/71)
NAME OF
COHPUTER
PDP-6
PDP-7
PDP-8
PDP-81l
PDP-8/S
PDP-8/L
PDP-9
PDP-9L
PDP-10
PDP-11
PDP-12
PDP-IS
LINC-8
640
8400
EHR 6020
EMR 6040
EMR 6050
EMR 6070
EMR 6130
EMR 6135
EMR 6155
DATE OF
FIRST
INSTALLATION
10/64
11/64
4/65
3/68
9/66
11/68
12/66
11/68
12/67
3/70
9/69
-/69
9/66
4/67
7/67
4/65
7/65
2/66
10/66
8/67
AVERAGE OR RANGE
OF MONTHLY RENTAL
$(000)
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.3
1.1
8.0
10.5
17.0
1.2
12.0
5.4
6.6
9.0
15.0
5.0
2.6
(S)
NUMBER OF INSTALLATIONS
Outside
In
In
World
U.S.A.
U.S.A.
23
C
C
C
C
160
C
C
1440
C
C
3698
C
1024
C
C
C
3902
C
C
436
C
C
48
C
C
145
C
C
546
C
C
475
C
377
C
C
C
134
100
21
C
C
C
C
C
60
6
160
27
NUMBER OF
UNFILLED
ORDERS
X
X
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
Total:
1350 E
6
0
C
C
C
C
C
Total:
1350 E
General Automation, Inc.
Anaheim, Calif.
~R) (7/71)
General Electric
West Lynn, Mass.
(Process Control Computers)
(A)
(8/71)
Hewlett Packard
Cupertino, Calif.
~A) (8/71)
Honeywell Information Systems
Wellesley Hills, Mass.
(A) (2/71)
46
SPC-12
SPC-16
S:z:stem 18/30
GE-PAC 3010
GE-PAC 4010
GE-PAC 4020
GE-PAC 4040
GE-PAC 4050
GE-PAC 4060
2114A, 2114B
2115A
2116A 1 2116B 1 2116C
G58
G105A
G105B
G105RTS
G115
G120
G130
G205
G210
G215
G225
G235
G245
G255 T/S
G265 T/S
G275 T/S
G405
G410 T/S
G415
G420 T/S
G425
G430 T/S
G435
G440 T/S
G615
G625
G635
G655
H-110
H-115
H-120
H-125
H-200
H-400
H-800
H-1200
H-1250
H-1400
H-1800
H-2200
H-3200
H-4200
H-8200
DDP-24
DDP-116
DDP-124
DDP-224
DDP-316
DDP-416
DDP-516
H112
H632
H1602
H1642
H1644
H1646
H1648
H1648A
1/68
5/70
7/69
5/70
10/70
2/67
8/64
12/66
6/65
10/68
11/67
11/66
5/70
6/69
6/69
7/69
4/66
3/69
12/68
6/64
7/60
9/63
4/61
4/64
11/68
10/67
10/65
11/68
2/68
11/69
5/64
6/67
6/64
6/69
9/65
7/69
3/68
4/65
5/65
12/70
8/68
6/70
1/66
12/67
3/64
12/61
12/60
2/66
7/68
1/64
1/64
1/66
2/70
8/68
12/68
5/63
4/65
3/66
3/65
6/69
2.0
6.0
6.0
3.0
7.0
2.0
0.25
0.41
0.6
1.0
1.3
1.4
1.2
2.2
2.9
4.5
2.9
16.0
6.0
8.0
12.0
13.0
17 .0
20.0
23.0
6.8
11.0
7.3
23.0
9.6
17.0
14.0
25.0
32.0
43.0
47.0
80.0
2.7
3.5
4.8
7.0
7.5
10.5
30.0
9.8
12.0
14.0
50.0
18.0
24.0
32.5
50.0
2.65
0.9
2.2
3.5
0.6
2
7
186
45
23
18
0
0
52
20
2
2
900
70
70
2
7
238
65
25
20
1182
333
1171
200-400
420-680
620-1080
11
35
15
145
40-60
3
15-20
45-60
0
0
1
15
17
15-30
10-40
5
11
35
16
160
57-77
3
15-20
60-90
10
15-45
170-300
70-100
50-100
20-30
20
23
20-40
X
X
X
240-400
70-130
26
3
3
75
26
23-43
9/66
10/69
12/68
1.2
3.2
255
30
960
370
1075
86
73
320
185
10
20
185
22
20
13
90
250
250
60
450
350
900
75
12
11/68
12.0
20
180
30
800
150
800
46
58
230
130
4
15
125
20
18
10
16
30
46
160
220
275
40
15
90
55
6
5
60
2
2
3
0
X
X
X
X
X
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for September, 1971
NAME OF
MANUFACTURER
IBM
White Plains, N.Y.
(N) (D)
(1/69-5/69)
Interdata
Oceanport, N.J.
(A) (6/71)
NCR
Dayton, o.hio
(A) (7/71)
Phil co
Willow Grove, Pa.
(N) (1/69)
RCA
Cherry Hill, N.J.
(N)
(5/69)
Raytheon
Santa Ana, Calif.
(A)
(7/71)
Scientific Control Corp.
Dallas, Texas
(A)
(8/71)
Standard Computer Corp.
Los Angeles, Calif.
(A) (6/71)
Systems Engineering Laboratories
Ft. Lauderdale, Fla.
(A)
(6/70)
UNIVAC Div. of Sperry Rand
New York, N.Y.
(A) (2/71)
NAME OF
COMPUTER
System/3 Model
System/3 Model
System/7
305
650
1130
1401
1401-G
1401-H
1410
1440
1460
1620 I, II
1800
7010
7030
704
7040
7044
705
7020,
7074
7080
7090
7094-1
7094-II
360/20
360/25
360/30
360/40
360/44
360/50
360/65
360/67
360/75
360/85
360/90
370/l35
370/145
370/155
370/165
370/195
Modell
Model 3
Model 4
Model 5
Model 15
304
310
315
315 RMC
390
500
Century 50
Century 100
Century 200
Centu!JI: 300
1000
200-210,211
2000-212
301
501
601
3301
Spectra 70/15
Spectra 70/25
Spectra 70/35
Spectra 70/45
Spectra 70/46
SEectra 70/55
250
440
520
703
704
706
650
655
660
4700
DCT-132
IC 4000
IC 6000
IC 7000
810
810A
810B
840
840A
840MP
S:l:':stems 86
I & II
III
File Computers
Solid-S tate 80
90, I, II, &
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for September, 1971
6
10
DATE OF
FIRST
INSTALLATION
3/71
1/70
11/71
12/57
10/67
2/66
9/60
5/64
6/67
11/61
4/63
10/63
9/60
1/66
10/63
5/61
12/55
6/63
6/63
11/55
3/60
3/60
8/61
11/59
9/62
4/64
12/65
1/68
5/65
4/65
7/66
8/65
11/65
10/65
2/66
12/69
11/67
5/72
7/71
2/71
5/71
4/71
12/70
5/67
8/68
11/70
1/69
1/60
5/61
5/62
9/65
5/61
10/65
2/71
9/68
6/69
2/72
6/63
10/58
1/63
2/61
6/59
11/62
7/64
9/65
9/65
1/67
11/65
11/66
12/60
3/64
10/65
10/67
3/70
5/69
5/66
10/66
10/65
4/69
5/69
12/68
5/67
8/70
9/65
8/66
9/68
11/65
8/66
1/68
3/51 & 11/57
8/62
8/56
I, II,
Step
8/58
AVERAGE OR RANGE
OF MONTHLY RENTAL
$(000)
1.0
1.1
0.35 and up
3.6
4.8
1.5
5.4
2.3
1.3
17.0
4.1
10.0
4.1
5.1
26.0
160.0
32.0
25.0
36.5
38.0
27.0
35.0
60.0
63.5
75.0
83.0
2.7
5.1
10.3
19.3
11.8
29.1
57.2
l33.8
66.9
150.3
(S)
14.4
23.3
48.0
98.7
232.0
3.7
8.5
10.5
20.0
10.0
1.0
7.0
9.0
0.8
1.0
1.6
2.6
7.5
20.0
7.0
40.0
52.0
7.0
14.0-18.0
14.0-35.0
17.0-35.0
4.3
6.6
9.2
22.5
33.5
34.0
1.2
3.6
3.2
(S)
12.5
(S)
8.0
(S)
19.0
0.5
2.1
2.1
1.8
0.9
9.0
16.0
17.0
1.1
0.9
1.2
1.5
1.5
2.0
10.0
25.0
21.0
15.0
8.0
NUMBER OF INSTALLATIONS
In
Outside
In
U.S.A.
U.S.A.
World
40
50
2580
2210
420
180
156
1690
194
285
415
67
4
12
35
28
18
10
44
13
4
10
6
4690
0
4075
1260
65
480
175
9
14
15
18
1227
1836
450
140
116
1174
63
186
148
17
1
1
27
13
3
3
26
2
2
4
4
3276
4
3144
498
13
109
31
4
3
NUMBER OF
UNFILLED
ORDERS
55
68
3807
4046
870
320
272
2864
257
471
563
84
5
l3
62
41
21
l3
70
15
6
14
10
,7966
4
7219
1758
78
589
206
l3
17
5
45
N/A
200
25
40
10
8
350
125
290
1100
75
1400
40.5
0
16
16
12
140-290
22-50
2
24-60
90-110
68-70
65-100
84-180
1
11
115
20
26
172
100
60
23
l37
41
18
41
9
9
5
24
111
75
3
36
31
0
23
25
13
210
10
100
15
24
2
0
375
50
440
1800
450
155
0
55
200
300
40
64
12
8
725
175
730
2900
75
1850
560
0
70
X
90
50
l3
X
X
X
X
X
100-l30
1
0
1-5
35-60
18-25
20-50
21-55
0
1
20
1
31
35
14
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
5
1
0
2
0
0
6
240-420
23-51
2
25-65
125-170
86-95
85-150
105-235
1
12
l35
20
27
203
135
74
23
l37
41
18
41
9
9
5
24
116
76
3
38
31
0
31
X
X
X
2
50
0
X
0
0
4
4
X
32
26
X
X
2
2
X
X
X
X
47
NAME OF
MANUFACTURER
UNIVAC (Cont'd)
NAME OF
COMPUTER
418
490 Series
1004
1005
1050
1100 Series (except
1107, 1108)
1107
1108
9200
9300
9400
LARC
620
620i
R-260i
520i
520/DC
620/f
620/L
XDS-92
XDS-910
XDS-920
XDS-925
XDS-930
XDS-940
XDS-9300
Sigma 2
Sigma 3
Sigma 5
Sigma 6
Sigma 7
Sigma 9
Varian Data Machines
Newport Beach, Calif.
(A) (7/71)
Xerox Data Sys terns
E1 Segundo, Calif.
(R)
(2/71)
DATE OF
FIRST
INSTALLATION
6/63
12/61
2/63
4/66
9/63
12/50
10/62
9/65
6/67
9/67
5/69
5/60
11/65
6/67
4/69
10/68
12/69
11/70
4/71
4/65
8/62
9/62
12/64
6/64
4/66
11/64
12/66
12/69
8/67
6/70
12/66
AVERAGE OR RANGE
OF MONTHLY RENTAL
$(000)
11.0
30.0
1.9
2.4
8.5
35.0
57.0
68.0
1.5
3.4
7.0
135.0
1.5
2.0
2.9
3.0
3.4
14.0
8.5
1.8
2.0
6.0
12.0
12.0
35.0
NUMBER OF INSTALLATIONS
In
Outside
In
U.S.A.
U.S.A.
World
76
112
36
11
75
86
1501
628
2129
637
299
936
62
138
200
0
3
114
822
49
0
0
9
8
87
1051
387
8
2
10-60
150-170
93-120
20
159
28-35
21-25
60-110
10
15-40 "
2
7-10
5-12
1
14
0
1
10-15
0
6-18
9
11
201
1873
436
8
2
75
1300
50
150
25
60
12
12-62
157-180
98-132
21
173
28-35
22-26
70-125
10
21-58
24-35
5-9
29-44
NUMBER OF
UNFILLED
ORDERS
20 E
35 E
20 E
90 E
10 E
X
X
75
850
550
60
E
E
E
E
X
400
30
330
25
40
250
Solution to Numble 718
NUMBLES
In Numble 718 in the August issue, the digits 0 through
9 are represented by letters as follows:
NUMBER PUZZLES FOR NIMBLE MINDS
-AND COMPUTERS
B,V=O
Y=l
M,T=2
R=3
F,L=4
Neil Macdonald
Assistant Editor
Computers and Automation
A "numble" is an arithmetical problem in which: digits
have been replaced by capital letters; and there are two
messages, one which can be read right away and a second
one in the digit cipher. The problem is to solve for the
digits.
Each capital letter in the arithmetical problem stands for
just one digit 0 to 9. A digit may be represented by more
than one letter. The second message, which is expressed in
numerical digits, is to be translated (using the same key)
into letters so that it may be read; but the spelling uses
puns or is otherwise irregular, to discourage cryptanalytic
methods of deciphering.
We invite our readers to send us solutions, together with
human programs or computer programs, which will produce
the solutions. This month's Numble was contributed by:
Stuart Freudberg, Newton High School, Newton. Mass.
NUMBLE 719
A=5
D,H=6
S=7
E=8
0=9
The message is: Eyes are the ambassadors of love.
Our thanks to the following individuals for submitting
their solutions - to Numble 717: A. Sanford Brown,
Dallas, Texas; Twite S. Emerick, Harrisburg Pa.; T. P. Finn,
Indianapolis, Ind.; Abraham Schwartz, Jamaica, N.Y.; and
David P. Zerbe, Reading, Pa. - to Numble 716: Vaughn E.
Mers, Hazelwood, Mo.; and G. P. Petersen, St. Petersburg,
Fla.
CORRECTION
In the July 1971 issue of Computers and Automation,
the following correction should be made:
Page 6, Editorial: Col. 2, eighth line: replace
"nineteen hundreds" with "nineteenth century"
HUM A N
x L I FE I S
EE AI LN
ADVERTISING INDEX
F H N lEE
CFM
U A H K S
= KHS
CKEIUL
HFNIEE
K ADS H E
= C N A U MAL
48
D USN
49125
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COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for September, 1971
CALENDAR OF COMING EVENTS
Sept. 1.3, 1971: Second International Joint Conference on Artificial
Intelligence, Imperial College, London, England J contact: The
British Computer Society, Conference Department, 29 Portland
Place, London, W.l., U.K.
Oct. 25, 1971: Second Annual SIGCOSIM (ACM Special Interest Group
on Computer Systems Installation Management) Symposium, Washington, D.C. / contact: I. Feldman, Wiley Systems, Inc., 6400
Goldsboro Rd., Bethesda, Md. 20034
Sept. 6.10, 1971: DISCOP Symposium (IFAC Symposium on Digit~1
Simulation of Continuous Processes), Gyor, Hungary I contact:
The Organizing Committee, Synposium on Simulation, Budapest
112, P.O.B. 63, Hungary
Oct. 25·29, 1971: IEEE Joint National Conference on Major Systems,
Disneyland Hotel, Anaheim, Calif. / contact: Institute of Electrical
and Electronics Engineers, Inc., 345 East 47th St., New York, N.Y.
10017
Sept. 7.9, 1971: lEE 1971 Conference on Computers for Analysis and
Control in Medical and Biological Research, University of Sheffield,
Sheffield, England I contact: Manager, Conference Dept., lEE, Savoy
Place, London WC2R OBL, England
Oct. 25.29, 1971: Systems Science & Cybernetics Conference & 1971
ORSA (Operations Research Society of America) Meeting, Disneyland Hotel, Anaheim, Calif. / contact: Dr. Michael W. Lodato, Xerox
Data Systems, 701 So. Aviation Blvd., EI Segundo, Calif. 90245
Sept. 9.10, 1971: Third Annual Conference of the Society for
Management Information Systems, Denver, Colo. I contact: Gerald
M. Hoffman, Secy., Society for Management Information Systems,
One First National Plaza, Chicago, III. 60670
Oct. 29, 1971: Sixth Annual ACM Urban Symposium, New York Hilton
Hotel, New York, N.Y. / contact: Gerald M. Sturman, Parsons
Brinckerhoff, 111 John St., New York, N.Y. 10038
Sept. 14·17, 1971: Canadian Information Processing Society (CIPS)
Annual National Conference, Royal York Hotel, Toronto, Canada i
contact: Jack McCaugherty, James Lovick Ltd., Vancouver, British
Columbia, Canada
Nov. 1·2, 1971: Computer Science and Statistics: Fifth Annual Sym.
posium on the Interface, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater,
Okla. / contact: Dr. Mitchell 0.' Locks, Oklahoma State Univ.,
Stillwater, Okla. 74074
Sept. 15·17, 1971: Canadian Computer Conference and Show, Royal
York Hotel, Toronto, Canada / contact: Conference Chairman, P.O.
Box 343, Toronto Dominion Centre, Toronto 111, Ontario, Canada
Nov. 4-5, 1971: 1971 American Production & Inventory Control So.
ciety (APICS) International Conference, Chase Park Plaza Hotel,
St. Louis, Mo. I contact: Henry F. Sander, American Production &
Inventory Control Society, Inc., Suite 504 Watergate Bldg., 2600
Virginia Ave. N.W., Washington, D.C. 20037
Sept. 27.29, 1971: Elettronica '71 - lst International Conference on
Applications of Electronics in the Industry, 21 st International Technical Exhibition, Turin, Italy I contact: Dr. Ing. Giovanni Villa, Elettronica 71, Corso Massimo d'Azeglio 15, 10126 Turin, Italy
Oct. 4-6, 1971: International Electrical & Electronics Conference & Ex·
hibition, Automotive Bldg., Exhibition Park, Toronto, Ontario,
Canada I contact: Conference Office, 1819 Yonge St., Toronto 7,
Ontario, Canada
Oct. 4-7, 1971: 26th Annual ISA Instrumentation·Automation Conference
& Exhibit, McCormick Place, Chicago, III. / contact: Daniel R. Stearn,
Public Relations Manager, Instrument Society of America, 400 Stanwix St., Pittsburgh, Pa. 15222
Oct. 6·8, 1971: Conference on "Two·Dimensional Digital Processing",
Univ. of Missouri·Columbia, Columbia, Mo. / contact: Prof. Ernest
L. Hall, Dept. of Electrical Engineering, Univ. of Missouri-Columbia,
Columbia, Mo. 65201
Oct. 10·12 1971: First Annual ASM Southwest Division Conference
(sponsored by Assoc. for Systems Management, Div. Council 18),
Jung Hotel, New Orleans, La. / contact: Albert J. Krail, 636
Baronne St., New Orleans, La. 70113
Oct. 11·13, 1971: Input/Output Systems Seminar '71, The Regency
Hyatt House·O'Hare, Chicago, III. / contact: C. A. Greathouse,
Exec. Director, DPSA (Data Processing Supplies Assoc.), P.O. Box
1333, Stamford, Conn. 06904
Oct. 14·20, 1971: Interkama '71, Dusseldorf, Germany / contact: I. A.
Stader, Dusseldorfer Messegesellschaft mbH - NOWEA - 4 Dusseldorf, Messegelande
Oct. 18·20, 1971: 27th Annual National Electronics Conference and
Exhibition (NEC/71), Pick-Congress Hotel, McCormick Place, Chicago,
III. / contact: NEC, Oakbrook Executive Plaza #2, 1211 W. 22nd
St., Oak Brook, III. 60521
Oct. 18·20, 1971: International Computer Forum & Exposition, McCormick Place-On-The-Lake, Chicago, III. / contact: International
Computer Forum & Exposition, Oak Brook Executive Plaza #2,
1211 West 22nd St., Oak Brook, III. 60521
Oct. 20·22, 1971: ACM/IEEE Second Symposium on Problems in the
Optimization of Data Communications Systems, Palo Alto, Calif. /
contact: Dr. P. E. Jackson, Room 2B-434, Bell Laboratories, Holmdel, N.J. 07733
Oct. 21.22, 1971: ADAPSO 33rd Management Conference·Annual
Meeting; lst Software Management Conference (concurrently),
Brown Palace Hotel, Denver, Colo. I contact: Association of Data
Processing Service Organizations, Inc., 551 Fifth Ave., New York,
N.Y. 10017
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for September, 1971
Nov. 7.11, 1971: 34th Annual Meeting of the American Society for
Information Science (ASIS), Denver Hilton Hotel, Denver, Colo. I
contact: Miss Sheryl Wormley, ASIS, 1140 Connecticut Ave., N.W.,
Suite 804, Washington, D.C. 20036
Nov. 16·18, 1971: Fall Joint Computer Conference, Las Vegas
Convention Center, Las Vegas, Nev. / contact T. C. White, AFIPS
Headquarters, 210 Summit Ave., Montvale, N. J. 07645
Nov. 30·Dec. 3, 1971: Systems '71, Munich, Germany / contact: Andre
Williams, BIC-938, Commercial Exhibitions Div., U.S. Department of
Commerce, Washington. D.C. 20230
Dec. 16-18, 1971: IEEE Conference on Decision and Control (incl uding
the 10th Symposium on Adaptive Processes), Americana of Bal Harbour, Miami Beach, Fla. / contact: Prof. J. T. Tou, Univ. of Florida,
Gainesville,· Fla.
Feb. 2·4, 1972: 1972 San Diego Biomedical Symposium, Sheraton
Hotel, Harbor Island, San Diego, Calif. / contact: Norman R. Silverman, M.D., San Diego Biomedical Symposium, P.O. Box 965, San
Diego, Calif. 92112
Mar. 20.23, 1972: IEEE International Convention & Exhibition, Coliseum & N. Y. Hilton Hotel, New York, N.Y. / contact: IEEE Headquarters, 345 E. 47th St., New York, N. Y. 10017
April 5.8, 1972: "Teaching Systems '72", Internationa I Congress,
Berlin Congress Hall, Berlin, Germany / contact: AMK Berlin,
Presse
und
Public
Ausstellungs-Messe-Kongress-GmbH,
Abt.
Relations, 0 1000 Berlin 19, Messedamm 22, Germany
May 15·18, 1972: Spring Joint Computer Conference, Convention Ctr.,
Atlantic City, N.J. / contact: AFIPS Headquarters, 210 Summit Ave.,
Montvale, N.J. 07645
May 16-17, 1972: liT Research Institute Second International Sympo.
sium on Industrial Robots, Chicago, III. I contact: K. G. Johnson,
Symposium Chairman, liT Research Institute, lOWest 35 St., Chicago, III. 60616
May 22·26, 1972: Fifth Australian Computer Conference, Brisbane,
Australia I contact: K. Arter, Honorary Secretary, Australian Computer Society, Inc., P.O. Box 63, Watson, A.C.T. 2602 Australia
May 24·26, 1972: Second Annual Regulatory Information Systems Con·
ference, Chase-Park Plaza Hotel, St. Louis, Mo. / contact: William
R. Clark, Missouri Public Service Commission, Jefferson City, Mo.
65101
June 19.21, 1972: International Symposium on Fault·Tolerant Com.
puting, Boston, Mass. I contact: John Kirkley, IEEE Computer Society, 8949 Reseda Blvd., Suite 202, Northridge, Calif. 91324
49
The New York Times and
Computers and Automation
have published· a practical guide to
the most elusive components in
computers and data processing ...
PEOPLI:
Who they are ...
What they do ...
Where they do it ...
Until now, it has been well-nigh impossible to keep track of the thousands of highly skilled professionals
pngaged in the world's fastest growmg profession.
The painstaking task required to inventmy the qualifications and backgrounds
of the 15,000 "most necessary" professionals in every branch of the computer field has been accomplished. The
oldest magazine in the field, Computers
and Automation, and the information
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Times have pooled their resources to
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WHO'S WHO IN
COMPUTERS AND
DATA PROCESSING
This is the most extensive register of
computer professionals ever published.
It is arranged in three volumes:
1. Systems Analysts and Programmers
2. Data Processing Managers and
Directors
3. Other Computer Professionals
(from professors of computer science to attorneys versed in the
computer field)
Each volume has an index to the entire
set of entries.
Each compu ter specialist has a capsule
biography detailing: Birth Date . ..
Education . .. Year Entered Computer
Field . .. Title . .. Honors . .. Memberships . .. Special Skills (from applications to logic to sales) ...
PLUS both home and business ad- dresses. For example:
CHAPIN, Ned / consultant / born: 1927 /
educ: PhD, lIT; MBA, Univ of Chicago /
entered computer field: 1954 / main interes is: applications, business, logic, management, programming, systems, data
structures / title: data processing consultant / organization: InfoSci Inc, Box 464,
Menlo Park, CA 94025 / publications,
honors: 3 books, over 50 papers; member,
over 12 associations; CDP; lecturer for
ACM / home address: 1190 Bellair Way,
Menlo Park, CA 94025
This reference is particularly useful for:
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FIFTH EDITION - Over 1000 pages
The coupon below will bring you the 3volume set at the price of $75. There is
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WHO'S WHO IN COMPUTERS
AND DATA PROCESSING
Edited by Edmund C. Berkeley
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SEVEN RECENT ARTICLES IN
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lit
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THE ASSASSINATION OF PRESIDENT JOHN F. KENNEDY, THE
APPLICATION OF COMPUTERS TO THE PHOTOGRAPHIC
EVIDENCE, by Richard E. Sprague (May 1970, p. 29)
A reexamination of some of the evidence relating
to the assassination of John F. Kennedy -- with
emphasis on the possibilities and problems of
computerized analysis of the photographic evidence.
EFFECTIVE PROGRAM DESIGN, by David W. Packer (July
1970, p. 37)
"The tendency of many programmers is to just
start drawing a detailed flowchart, solving
each problem as it occurs. This is analogous
to building a house without a plan -- one
brick at a time. The result in either case
is likely to be the creation of a monster."
-~
1 ft
In
1ft
1ft
Z
0
'= ...
~
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III
I
I
COMMUNICATIONS MESSAGE SWITCHING -- AN ANALYSIS,
by Walter M. Aydelotte (July 1971, p. 8)
Ilow to organize the switching of communications
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THE SCIENCE OF INFORMATION MANAGEMENT, by Col. Carl
J. Weinmeister, III (April 1971, p. 20) .
A development of two theses: (1) Information
management systems have failed because of inadequate attention to data base construction;
and (2) A new science of information manage~ent
must be developed before really successful, .
large management information systems can evolve.
MAYBE THE COMPUTERS CAN SAVE US AFTER ALL, by Edward
Yourdon (May 1971, p. 21)
A proposal for a privately owned and operated
National Information Bureau which would serve
as a central source of information for anyone
on any subject of reasonable interest. -"If part of the average ci tizen 's feeling of
impotence and disillusionment is caused by a
lack of organized and readily-available information, would it not be possible to put
such information at his fingertips with a
computer?"
lit
III
A-
DATA BANKS -- A POSITION PAPER, by Prof. Caxton C.
Foster (March 1971, p. 28)
A penetrating analysis of future likely developments of data banks, "when every interaction of an individual with society can be
collected, sifted, and analyzed at low cost"
producing erosion of constitutional rights.
USINC; THE COMPUTER TO STEAL, by Harvey S. Gellma n
(April 1971, p. 16)
Ilow computers are being used for fraud and theft.
'~he typical computer centre offers an open
invitation to the thief or vandal; most computer systems are not presently protected
against destruction, or unauthorized access
or manipulation."
~
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'"a.
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OPTICAL CHARACTER RECOGNITION (OCR), by Alan I
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AUTOMATIC DATA PROCESSING IN THE DEPARTMENT OF
DEFENSE, by Gilbert W. Fitzhugh, and 15 more
authors, Blue Ribbon Defense Panel (December 1970,
p. 21)
"The challenge which the Department of
Defense continues to fnce is that of design
and development of standard, Departme~t
wide, AOP systems."
THE EUP MANAGER - AND THE COMPUTER PROFIT DRAIN,
by Walter J. Schroeder, Principal, A. T. Kearney
& Co., Inc. (January 1971, p. 14)
Why have the predictions of the 1960's regarding the use of computers in making management
decisions, and the movement of EDP managers
into company presidencies, failed to materialize? -
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ACOHN (Automatic COder Report Narrative): AN
AUTOMATED NATURAL-LANGUAGE QUESTION-ANSWERING
SYSTEM For Surgical Reports, by Paul A. Shapiro
and DaviLi F. Stermole, (February 1971, p. 13)
A highly successful pilot model of a system
(at a cancer research institute in Buffalo,
N.Y.) for (1) storing post-operative surgical
reports written by doctors in ordinary English;
and (2) allowing researchers to question this
great catalog of stored data, using ordinary
English.
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VEHIFICATION OF SOFTWAHE PROGRAMS, by Fletcher J.
Buckley, U.S. Army Computer Systems Command
(February 1971, p. 23)
How a Formal Qualification Test (FQT) of a
software program can be used to verify that
each of the individual requirements in the
specification has been met - and why this
general method is more reliable and more
useful than other appro;lches. -
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These are just sixof the interesting, informative, provocative articles published recently in
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CLA.
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