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1.,1
SCIENCE & TECHNOlOG~
-
July, 1972
Vol. 21, No. 7
co
LA PENSE USE
Management Information Systems: The Trouble with Them
Education for Data Processing: Yesterday , Today , Tomorrow
The Impact of the Computer on Society - Some Comments
Barriers in Applying Computers
The Neglect of Significant Subjects, and
the Information Engineer
The Shooting of Presidential Candidate George C. Wallace:
A Systems-Analysis Discussion
/
-
Col. T. B. Mancinelli
Thomas R. Tirney
Joseph Weizenbaum
E. C. Berkeley
Peter J. Nyikos
- Thomas Stamm
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Sample page from the Fifth Edition, ''WHO'S WHO IN COMPUTERS AND DATA PROCESSING"
Who's Who in Computers
ANDERSEN, Hans Peter Brostrup / console operator / b: 1946 / ed: Denmark / ent: 1966 / m-i: B
Ma P Sa / t: console operator / org: Tretorn Data
Center, AB, 25225 Halsingborg, Sweden / pb-h: / h: Tranemansgatan 14 3:e van, S-252 44 Halsingborg, Sweden
ANDERSON, Alfred O. / inathematician / b:
1928 / ed: BS, math / ent: 1953 / m-i: P / t:
mathematician / org: Aberdeen Proving Ground,
MD 21005 / pb-h: ACM / h: 602 Market St,
Aberdeen, MD 21001
ANDERSON, Carl S. / systems analyst / b: 1934
/ ed: BS, Univ of Kansas School of Business / ent:
1962 / m-i: A Mg Sy / t: computing systems analyst' / org: The Boeing Co, 3801 S Oliver, Wichita,
KS 67210 / pb-h: CDP / h: 806 N Florence, Wichita, KS 67212
ANDERSON, Edward J. / computer systems
scientist / b: 1932 / ed: BS, Univ of California at
Berkeley; MA, aero,space operations management,
Univ of Southern California; MS, systems engineering, West Coast Univ / ent: 1959 / m-i: D Mg
Sy / t: computer systems scientist / org: Computer
Sciences Corp, p50 N Sepulveda, El Segundo, CA
90245/ pb-h: ACM, IEEE, "Design Considerations
for a Telemetry Ground Support System",
AIAA Aerospace Computer Systems Conference,
1969 / h: 1440 Florida St, Apt 8, Long Beach, CA
90812
ANDERSON, Frederick J. / engineer / b: 1923 /
ed: Stanford Univ / ent: 1947 / m-i: A C / t:
director of engineering / org: Sylvania Electric
Products, Inc, 100 First Ave Waltham, MA 02154
/ pb-h: - / h: 66 Woodridge Rd, Wayland, MA
01778 / ·C64
ANDERSON, Herbert E. / senior programmer /
b: 1927 / ed: Univ of California, Univ of New
Mexico / ent: 1957 / m-i: A P; statistics / t: staff
associate / org: Sandia Corp, Sandia. Base, Albuquerque, NM 87115 / pb-h: ACM, CDP, several
papers / h: 501 Mesilla NE, Albuquerque, NM
87108
ANDERSON, Jess / systems specialist / b: 1935 /
ed: BA / ent: 1955 / m-i: A P Sy; research in
physical sciences / t: specialist / org: Univ ofWisconsin, PO Box 6, Stoughton, WI 53589 / pb-h:
several papers / h.1 2838 Stevens St, Madison, WI
53705
ANDERSON, Kermit C. / systems analyst / b:
1943 / ed: BS, Penn State Univ / ent: 1969 / m-i:
L Ma P Sy / t: systems analyst / org: Marsh &
McLennan,70 Pine St, New York, NY 10005/ pbh: - / h: 2 Park Ave, Green Brook, NJ 08812
ANDERSON, Marilyn B. (Mrs.) / junior engineer
/ b: 1927 / ed: Miami Univ / ent: 1949 / m-i: P /
2
Abbreviations include:
b:
ed:
ent:
m-i:
t:
org:
pb-h:
h:
v:
born
education
entered computer field
main interests
title
organization
publications, honors, memberships,
other distinctions
home address
volume number
Main Interests:
A
B
C
D
L
Applications
Business
Construction
Design
Logic
Mg
Ma
P
Sa
Sy
Management
Mathematics
Programming
Sales
Systems
ANDERSON, Walter R. / president / b: 1929 /
ed: AB, Clark Univ; BSEE, Worcester Poly tech
Inst / ent: 1958 / m-i: Ma / t: president / org:
Spiras Systems Inc, 332 Second Ave, Waltham,
MA 02154 / pb-h: IEEE, Committee on Numerical Control EIA TR-31 / h: 36 Winsor Rd, Sudbury, MA 01776
ANDERSON, Walter W. / systems auditor / b:
1934 / ed: BBA North Texas State Univ / ent:
1962 / m-i: A Sy / t: electr.onic data processing
analyst / org: El Paso Natural Gas Co, PO Box
1492, El Paso, TX 79999 / pb-h: CDP / h: 10256
Luella, El Paso, TX 79925
ANDERSON, William M. / systems programmer
/ b: 1947 / ed: - / ent: 1967 / m-i: A P Sy / t:
assistant data processing supervisor / org: Midway
Platt Co, 2233 University, St Paul, MN 55104 /
pb-h: - / h: 441 Lynnhurst W, St Paul, MN 55104
ANDRADE, Luciano P. / programmer / b: 1918/
ed: high school / ent: 1962 / m-i: P / t: senior
computer programmer / org: HUD, Washington,
DC 20410 / pb-h: - / h: 6419 Maplewood Dr,
Falls Church, VA 22041
ANDREE, Richard V. / professor, author, lecturer,
consultant / b: 1919 / ed: BS, Univ of Chicago,
PhD, Univ of Wisconsin / ent: 1948 / m-i: A Ma
P Sy; writing, information science / t: professor of
math, research associate in computing science /
org: Univ of Oklahoma, Norman, OK 73069 / pbh: ACM, AEDS, ASL, DPMA, MAA, NCTM,
SIAM lecturer, American Assn for the Advancement of Science, American Math Society, American Society for Engineering Education, Mu Alpha
Theta, Pi Mu Epsilon, Sigma Xi, 3 fellowships,
numerous committees, Who's Who in America,
World Who's Who, editor, 12 books, 8 paperbacks,
about 20 articles / h: 627 E Boyd, Norman, OK
73069
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for July, 1972
PEOPLE
THE MOST ESSENTIAL COMPONENTS IN
COMPUTERS AND DATA PROCESSING
Who they are ...
What they do ...
Where they do it ...
NOW YOU CAN STAY UP-TO-DATE
ON "WHO'S WHO IN COMPUTERS
AND DATA PROCESSING" ...
Each computer professional has a capsule biography detailing: last name; first name and middle initial (if any); occupation; year of birth; university education and degrees;
year entered the computer field; job title; organization and
its address; publications, honors, and memberships; home
address.
See sample page opposite.
Effective in April 1972, "Who's Who in Computers and
Data Processing" was changed to an annual subscription
basis as follows:
1. The latest Cumulative Edition (the 5th edition
published 1971, containing over 15,000 capsule biographies, over 1,000 pages long, 3
volumes, hardbound) PLUS
2. At least 3 Updating Supplements per year, expected to total over 3,000 entries PLUS
3. An Inquiry Service: At your request we will
obtain and report to you as a subscriber
the capsule biography of any person in the
computer field (if we can find his address
and if he replies), to the extent of a
dozen requests per year.
ALL for $49.50 per year in any year when a cumulative edition is supplied ... and $22.00 per year in any
year when a cumulative edition is not supplied.
We are confident that you will find the subscription
will repay you many times over - one day when this wealth
of material gives you the inside track with someone important to you, you'll find the information PRICELESS: the
most essential component in EDP is GOOD PEOPLE.
RETURNABLE IN 10 DAYS
FOR FULL REFUND
(if not satisfactory)
r- - - - - - I
(may be copied on any piece of paper)- - - ---.: - - - - - - - -
WHO'S WHO IN COMPUTERS AND DATA PROCESSING
815 Washington St., Newtonville, Mass. 02160
( ) YES, please enroll me as a subscriber to WHO'S WHO IN
COMPUTERS AND DATA PROCESSING at the following rate:
( ) $49.50 including the last cumulative edition
OR
( ) $22.00 since I already have access to the last cumulative
edition
I understand that in each 12 months: (a) I shall receive at least
BASED ON "Computers and Automation" 's continual data
gathering from computer professionals
3 updating supplements, expected to total over 3000 entries;
and (b) that I can ask for and receive a dozen capsule biographies of specified computer persons (if the address can be
found and if they respond).
This refe,rence will be particularly useful for:
Personnel managers
Libraries
Conference planners
Directors of computer installations
Suppliers to the computer industry
Executive search organizations
Prospective authors
Prospective speakers ...
anyone who needs to keep up with the important people
in the field.
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for July, 1972
RETURNABLE IN 10 DAYS
FOR FULL REFUND
(if not satisfactory)
Name
Title
Organization
, Address
City
State & Zip
Your Signature
P.O. No. (if company order)
3
Vol. 21, No. 7
July, 1972
Editor
Edmund C. Berkeley
Assistant
Editors
Barbara L. Chaffee
Linda Ladd Lovett
Neil D. Macdonald
Software
Editor
Stewart B. Nelson
Advertising
Director
Edmund C. Berkeley
Art Director
Ray W. Hass
Publisher's
Assistants
Paul T. Moriarty
Janet M. Rysgaard
Contributing
Editors
John Bennett
Moses M. Berlin
Andrew D. Booth
John W. Carr III
Ned Chapin
Alston S. Householder
Leslie Mezei
Ted Schoeters
Richard E. Sprague
Advisory
Committee
James J. Cryan
Alston S. Householder
Bernard Quint
Editorial
Offices
computers
and automation
The Computer Industry
Berkeley Enterprises, Inc.
815 Washington St.
Newtonville, Mass. 02160
617 -332-5453
[T A]
11 MANAGEMENT INFORMATION SYSTEMS:
The Trouble With Them
by Colonel T. B. Mancinelli, USA, Naval War College,
Newport, R.I.
Four of the most important problems with management
information systems, and what might be done about them.
[T A]
14 EDUCATION FOR DATA PROCESSING:
Yesterday, Today, Tomorrow
by Thomas R. Tirney, Asst. Prof. of Economics and Business,
Univ. of Vermont, Burlington, Vt.
Options, costs, and timetables for filling the demand for
persons qual ified for careers in data processing.
[NT A]
24 BARRIERS IN APPLYING COMPUTERS
by Edmund C. Berkeley, Editor, Computers and Automation
Half a dozen very solid obstacles to applying computers,
and some discussion of the importance of being aware
of these obstacles.
50 The Computer Directory and Buyers' Guide, 1972 -
[NT R]
Announcement
Computers and Society
[NT A]
SOME COMMENTS
by Joseph Weizenbaum, Professor of Computer Science,
Mass. Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Mass.
"ThEi' computer scientist must be aware constantly that
his instruments are capable of having gigantic direct and
indirect amplifying effects."
18 THE IMPACT OF THE COMPUTER ON SOCIETY
Advertising
Contact
THE PUBLISHER
Berkeley Enterprises, Inc.
815 Washington St.
Newtonville, Mass. 02160
617 -332-5453
"Computers and Automation" is published monthly, -12 issues per year, at 815
Washfngton St., Newtonville, Mass. 02160,
by Berkeley Enterprises, Inc. Printed in
U.S.A. Second Class Postage paid at Boston,
Mass., and additional mailing points.
Subscription rates: United States, $9.50
for one year, $18.00 for two years. Canada:
add 50 cents a year for postage; foreign, add
$;3.50 a year for postage.
NOTE: The above rates do not include
our publication "The Computer Directory
and, Buyers' Gu ide"; see "Directory Notice"
on the page stated in the Table of Contents.
If you elect to receive "The Computer Directory and Buyers' Guide", please add
$9.00 per year to your subscription rate.
Please .address all mail to:
Berkeley
Enterprises, Inc., 815 Washington St., Newtonville, Mass. 02160.
Postmaster: Please send all forms 3579
to Berkeley Enterprises, Inc., 815 Washington St., Newtonville, Mass. 02160;
@ Copyright 1972, by Berkeley Enterprises, Inc.
Change of address:
If your address
changes, please send us both your new
address and your old address (as it appears on the magazine address imprint), and
allow three weeks for the change to be
made.
4
Computer People, Aptitudes, and Pictorial Reasoning Tests
26 PICTORIAL REASONING TESTS - PART 6
by Neil Macdonald, Assistant Editor
[NT
F]
[NT
27 Pictorial Reasoning Test - C&A No.7
A new style of test of recognition of "properties".
F]
2, 3 "Who's Who in Computers and Data Processing"
[NT G]
The 5th edition, continuing supplements, and an inquiry
service to obtain new capsule biographies.
The Profession of Information Engineer and the Pursuit of Truth
35 Unsettling, Disturbing, Critical
[NT F]
Statement of policy by Computers and Automation
30 The Neglect of Significant Subjects, and the Information [NT A]
Engineer
by Peter J. Nyikos, Edgewood Arsenal, Md., and Edmund C.
Berkeley, Editor
What is the cause of the neglect of a great many significant subjects by the mass media and the public?
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for July, 1972
The magazine of the design, applications, and implications
of information processing systems - and the pursuit of
truth in input, output, and processing.
The Profession of Information Engineer and the
Pursuit of Truth (continued)
[NT A]
32 The Shooting of Presidential Candidate George C.
Wallace: A Systems-Analysis Discussion
by Thomas Stamm, Bronx, N.Y., and
Edmund C. Berkeley, Editor
An analysis of the shooting of Governor Wallace of Alabama; and a discussion of systematic methods for protecting American leaders from violent attacks.
10 The Shooting of Governor George C. Wallace,
Candidate for President
by Edmu nd C. Berkeley, Editor
Editorial
[NT E]
[NT G]
37 PACIFICATION: The Story of Ba Toi
by the American Friends Service Committee, Cambridge, Mass.
A thumb-nail sketch of the human meaning of bringing
"peace" to Indochina by heavy firepower and bombing.
Front Cover Picture
La Penseuse, "the th inker", is
Catherine Taylor, a junior at Trenton High School; she is listening
during an evening class in basic
computer logic and programming
given at the YMCA in Trenton. The
class is intended for students interested in careers in the computer
fields and is designed, organized,
and taught by Chauncey Herring,
an engineer at Western Electric
Research Center, Princeton, N.J.
See page 42.
Common Sense, Wisdom, Science in General, and Computers
NOTICE
6 COMMON SENSE, WISDOM, AND INFORMATION
[NT A]
PROCESSING: The C&A Notebook on Common Sense,
Elementary and Advanced
by Edmund C. Berkeley, Editor, Computers and Automation
An appraisal of the first subscription year of the Notebook
on Common Sense, and what has been accomplished.
[NT G]
7 What May be the Most Important of All Branches
of Knowledge
"That which is generally true and important": what
would it be?
8 Preventing Mistakes Before They Happen
[NT G]
9 Questions and Answers About liThe C&A Notebook"
[NT G]
The Golden Trumpet
36 Computer-Field Information vs. Social Rag
[NT G]
by Arthur Martin, President, Computer Covenant Corp.,
Ridgewood, N.J., and the Editor
38 Unhappy Subscriber to Satisfied One
[NT G]
by John Kaler and the Editor
[T C)
by Neil Macdonald
26 Advanced Numbles
by Neil Macdonald
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for July, 1972
Departments
40 Across the Editor's Desk Computing and Data
Processing Newsletter
50 Advertising Index
49 Calendar of Coming
Events
38 Corrections
46 Monthly Computer
Census
44 New Contracts
45 New Installations
Key
Computers, Games, and Puzzles
26 Numbles
*0 ON YOUR ADDRESS IMPRINT
MEANS THAT YOUR SUBSCRIPTION INCLUDES THE COMPUTER
DIRECTORY.
*N MEANS THAT
YOUR PRESENT SUBSCRIPTION
DOES NOT INCLUDE THE COMPUTER DIRECTORY.
[T C)
[A]
[C)
[E)
[F)
[G)
[NT]
[ R]
[T]
Article
Monthly Column
Editorial
Forum
The Golden Trumpet
Not Techn ical
Reference Information
Technical
5
Advertisement
Common Sense, Wisdom, and InFormation Processing:
The Notebook on Common Sense, Elementary and Advanced
Edmund C. Berkeley
Editor, Computers and Automation
1. A New and Important Subject
The engineering of wisdom -The training and development of advanced common
sense -The systematic elimination of mistakes -The application of advanced common sense to
the computer field and many other fields -A logical development and expansion of computing
and data processing
A subject that is probably more important than
mathematics and which has been thoroughly
neglected for more than 50 years -A new and "glamorous" field with the opportunity
to "get in on the ground floor" -These are some of the properties of the subject
which, starting a year ago, "Computers and Automation"
began to report on in a new publication, "The C&A
Notebook on Common Sense, Elementary and Advanced".
We promised at least 24 issues, newsletter style,
for the first annual subscription. We have delivered
36 for good measure. For the ti tIes. see Table 1 below.
2. Successful Project
Now a year later, we know that this project is
a success. The Notebook has won -- and continues
to win -- many enthusiastic subscribers. Here are
a few of their comments:
Harold J. Coate, EDP Manager, St. Joseph, Mo.:
I believe these to be the best, if not the
most important, reading that I have had this
year.
William Taylor, Vice President, Calgary, Alberta:
Very good articles; something all "managers
should read.
Edward K. Nellis, Director of Systems Development,
Pittsford, N.Y.:
As I am involved with systems work, I can
always use one of the issues to prove a point
or teach a lesson.
David Lichard, Data Processing Manager, Chicago:
Thoroughly enjoy each issue.
Richard Marsh, Washington, D.C.:
Keep it up. All are good and thought-provoking
which in itself is worthwhile.
Ralph C. Taylor, Manager of Research and Development, West Chester, Ohio:
Especially liked "Right Answers".
6
Jeffrey L. Rosen, Programmer, Toronto, Canada:
Your tendency to deal with practical applications is very rewarding.
The project began with an announcement in the
April 1971 issue in the form of an editorial "The
Most Important of All Branches of Knowledge". That
edi torial (updated) appears on the next page in case
some readers have not previously read it.
3. Operational Definitions
One of the results of the investigation stimulated
by producing the Notebook has been the proposing of
an operational definition of common sense and wisdom
(See Notebook Issue No. 24, "What is Common Sense?
An Operational Definition", and No. 36, "Wisdom -- An
Operational Definition").
An operational definition is one in which operations that can be performed (tests that can be made)
are used in order to define a term. This kind of
defini tion avoids the fallacy shown in "food is grub",
"grub is chow", "chow is food". The fa llacy of ci rcular definition using synonyms is a common (and almost unavoidable) fault in most dictionaries.
4. An Operati.onal Definition
of Common Sense
Common sense behavior by an organism in regard to
a problem implies that the organism: is observant and
perceptive; shows initiative; demonstrates ordinary
or common knowledge; displays intelligent behavior;
modifies its behavior so as to adjust suitably to new
factors; and effectively solves a large proportion of
that kind of problem.
The behavior of a squirrel in regard to marauding
a bird feeder often shows common sense -- though his
behavior in regard to finding buried nuts often shows
a poor memory.
5. Future Issues
Among the next dozen issues are:
The Concept of Feedback and Feedback Control
Sixty Excuses for a Closed Mind
Benjamin Franklin, Scientist of Common Sense
Key Unlocking Information
The Evening Star and the Princess
Preventing Mistakes from Unforeseen Hazards
And we have a list of over 100 topics, that seem to
us very significant, for covering in future issues.
We invite every reader of this brief report to try
the Notebook. See the guaranteed "no-like-no-cost"
offer on pages 8 and 9. We hope you will take advantage of the present offer. We expect that subscription rates may have to be increased.
COMPUTERS AND AUTOMATION for July, 1972
The Most Important of All Branches of Knowledge
(Based on an editorial in Computers and Automation
published by Berkeley Enterprises Inc., 815 Washington St., Newtonville, Mass. 02160)
It may be that there is a branch of knowledge which is
the most important of all.
If so, we would maintain that it is a subject which used
to have the name "wisdom" but nowadays does not have
a recognized scientific name, or in any college a recognized
department or faculty to teach it. This subject currently
is a compound of common sense, wisdom, good judgment,
maturity, the scientific method, the trained capacity to
solve problems, systems analysis, operations research, and
some more besides. Its earmark is that it is a general subject, not a special one like chemistry or psychology or astronautics. Useful names for this subject at this time are
"generalogy" or "science in general" or "common sense,
elementary and advanced" or perhaps "wisdom".
Many editorials published in "Computers and Automation" have in one way or another discussed or alluded to
this su bj ect :
Examples, Understanding, and Computers / December 1964
The Barrels and the Elephant: Crackpot vs. Pioneer /
May 1965
Some Questions of Semantics / August 1965
Perspective / April 1966
Computers and Scientific Models / May 1967
New Ideas that Organize Information / December
1967
How to Spoil One's Mind - As Well as One's Computer / August 1968
The Catching of Errors by Inspection / September
1968
Tunnel Vision / January 1969
The Cult of the Expert / May 1969
Computers, Language, and Reality / March 1970
Computers and Truth / August 1970
The Number of Answers to a Question / March 1971
In the editorial "The Cult of the Expert" we offered a
leaflet that belongs in this subject, "Right Answers - A
Short Guide for Obtaining Them". More than 600 readers
asked for a C9PY; so clearly this subject is interesting.
This subject is related to computers and the computer
field in at least two ways:
First, many of the general principles which this subject
contains can be investigated in experimental or real situations by means of a computer. In fact, far more can be
investigated by computer than can possibly be investigated
by ordinary analytical mathematics.
Second, since computer professionals are in charge of
computing machines, many people consider these professionals responsible for the worthwhileness of the results of
computers. Because of "garbage in, garbage out", computer
professionals-have a responsibility to apply common sense
and wisdom in at least three ways:
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for July, 1972
Input - in the selection and acceptance of the
data with which they begin;
Processing - in the processing through a system;
Output - in the interpretation and use of the
answers.
Then the computerized systems will produce strong structures that human beings can use and rely on, and not weak
structures which will crash with false information or ridiculous results.
"Computers and Automation" has published two articles
"Common Sense, Wisdom,General Science, and ComputersH,
which deal with this subject. For more than a dozen years,
we have been studying this subject - ever since we searched
in a very large and good public library for a textbook on
common sense or wisdom and found none at all. There is,
however, a great deal of information to be gathered on this
subject because a large number of great men and great scientists, ancient, medieval, and modern, have made remarks
and comments (usually while talking or writing about something else) that belong in this subject.
The subject of wisdom is particularly important in these
modern days. The subject has been neglected, while special sciences have been cultivated. Investigators have pursued the special sciences with the enthusiasm of a child
with a new toy. Specialized science and specialized technology have rendered our earthly world almost unrecognizable:
All major cities on the planet are only a few hours
apart by jet plane;
Millions upon millions of people who otherwise
would be dead are alive because of modern
public health practices - thus creating a
population explosion;
Nuclear weapons if used can destroy mankind and
civilization in a few hours; etc.
To deal with so many diverse, vast problems we need wisdom.
To use wisdom we should study it.
We have decided that it is desirable to make the drawers
full of information we have been collecting on this subject
more accessible and more widely distributed. We have decided to publish a series of notes in newsletter style called
"The C&A Notebook on Common Sense, Elementary and
Advanced" .
We invite you, our readers, to join us in the pursuit of
this subject, as readers of the Notebook, and as participators with us in the research and study.
Wisdom is a joint enterprise - and truth is not shaped
so that it can fit into the palm of anyone person's hand.
~~C.~
Edmund C. Berkeley
Editor
7
DO YOU WANT TO
PREVENT MISTAKES BEFORE THEY HAPPEN?
- see new solutions to old problems?
- distinguish between sense and nonsense?
- increase your accomplishments?
- improve your capacities?
- avoid pitfalls?
- find new paths around old obstacles?
- apply in practical situations the observations and
wisdom of great scientists and wise men?
- stimulate your resourcefulness?
IF SO, TRY-
The C&A Notebook on
COMMON SENSE. ELEMENTARY AND ADVANCED
devoted to research, development, exposition, and illustration of one of the most important
of all branches of knowledge, i.e. the su bject of WHAT IS GENERALLY TRUE AND IMPORTANT =
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
Editor: Edmund C. Berkeley,
author, businessman, actuary,
scientist, computer professional,
first secretary of the Association
for Computing Machinery 1947-53,
editor of Computers and Automation.
+
RETURNABLE IN 7 DAYS
FOR FULL REFUND, IF
NOT SATISFACTORYWHY NOT TAKE A LOOK?
..... HOW CAN YOU LOSE?
_______ .- ___________ - - _ - - - (may be copied on any piece of paper) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - COMPUTERS AND AUTOMATION
815 Washington St. , R 7, Newtonville, Mass. 02160
YES, please enter my subscription to the C&A Notebook on Common Sense at $12 a year,
24 issues (newsletter style), and extras.
Please send me (as FREE premiums for subscribing) the first six issues:
1. Right Answers - A Short Guide to Obtaining Them
4. Strategy in Chess
2. The Empty Column
5. The Barrels and the Elephant
3. The Golden Trumpets of Yap Yap
6, The Argument of the Beard
I enclose $
( ) Please bill me
) Please bill my organization
Name ____________________________________ Title___________________
To:
Organization ________________________________________________________
Address ____________________________________________________________
Signature_________________________________ Purchase Order No. _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __
8
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for July, 1972
QUESTIONS
AND
ANSWERS
about "The C&A Notebook on
COMMON SENSE,
ELEMENTARY AND ADVANCED"
INTERESTING:
: Q: Is the Notebook interesti ng?
A: We think so -- but you can judge for yourself.
You can see the issues, and if not satisfactory,
tell us to discontinue your subscription.
Q: Is the Notebook exciting?
EXCITING:
A: Some of the issues, like "Falling 1800 Feet
Down a Mountain" and "Doomsday in St. Pierre,
Martinique", are among the most exciting true
stories we know.
USEFUL:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
Q: Is the Notebook useful?
A: It ought to be useful to anybody -- as useful
as common sense. There exists no textbook on
common sense; the Notebook tries to be a good
beginning to common sense, science, and wisdom.
UNDERSTANDABLE:
13.
14.
15.
16.
Q: Can I understand the Notebook?
A: Yes. It is nontechnical -- written in everyday language and using vivid examples.
Q: Do you cover in the Notebook all
parts of common sense, wisdom, and science
in general?
COVERAGE:
A: Yes, we plan to. The main subjects so far
are: systematic prevention of mistakes; avoiding certain fallacies; important principles;
important concepts; illustrative anecdotes, etc.
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Right Answers
-- A Short Guide to Obtaining Them
The Empty Column
The Golden Trumpets of Yap Yap
Strategy in Chess
The Barrels and the Elephant
The Argument of the Beard
The Elephant and the Grassy Hillside
Ground Rules for Arguments
False Premises, Valid Reasoning, and
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Elementary and Advanced
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-- Questions for Consideration
Falling 1800 Feet Down a Mountain
The Cult of the Expert
Preventing Mistakes from Failure
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The Stage of Maturity and Judgment
in any Field of Knowledge and
Experience
Doomsday in St. Pierre, Martinique
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The History of the Doasyoulikes
Individuality in Human Beings
How to be Silly
The Three Earthworms
The Cochrans vs. Catastrophe
Preventing Mistakes from Forgetting
What is Common Sense? -An Operational Definition
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Natural History, Patterns, and
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Rationalizing and Common Sense
Opposition to New Ideas
A Classification and Review of the
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Index to Volume 1 (first 30 issues)
Adding Years to Your Life Through
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The Number of Answers to a Problem
"Stupidity has a Knack of Getting
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Time, Sense, and Wisdom
Some Notes
Time, Sense, and Wisdom
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9
EDITORIAL
The Shooting of Governor George C. Wallace,
Candidate for President
On May 15, about 4:00 p.m., in Laurel, Md., Governor
George C. Wallace of Alabama was shot. He was shot outdoors in a suburban shopping center, between a drive-in bank
and a variety store, on his way to his car. At the time, he
was escorted by a group of guards, and was shaking hands
with persons greeting him in a crowd. He had just finished
a campaign talk to about 1000 persons, where he had talked
from a podium behind a transparent bullet-proof shield.
These questions are discussed at length in an article by
Thomas Stamm and the Editor, in this issue, en titled "The
Shooting of Presidential Candidate George C. Wallace: A
Systems-Analysis Discussion" and including sections entitled:
- Questions
- The Number of Bullets, Guns, and Wounds
Most fortunately Governor Wallace, although shot many
times, is at present writing recovering, except for the effect
of a bullet lodged in or near his spine which so far is paralyzing his legs. So this event must be classified as an attempted assassination rather than a fulfilled one.
- The Expenses of the Suspect
One suspect was immediately seized by bystanders and
guards, and arrested by the police of Prince George's County,
Maryland. His name is Arthur Herman Bremer; his last
address was 2433 Michigan Ave., Milwaukee, Wisconsin; he
is 21 years old. From February 15 to date he was unemployed.
- Systems Analysis Applied to the Protection of a
Presidential Candidate
A long summarizing article about him, written by Douglas
E. Kneeland, and based on reporting by him and four more
reporters, was printed in the New York Times of May 22;
it contains much important information. Bremer was indicted on May 23 by Federal and county grand juries on 28
charges. No other person has yet been indicted.
- Cui Bono? (Who Profits?)
- Gun Control
We hope that these and related questions will interest
our readers. We invite additional data, discussion, and
comment.
The United States must become a country where presidential candidates can live through their campaigning and
live through their presidency without successful violent
attacks upon them.
.
Two crucial questions of course are:
- How should this event be classified - as the effort
of a psychopathic criminal operating alone? or
as the result of a conspiracy?
- How can assassination attempts and violent attacks
on presidential candidates be prevented?
10
Edmund C. Berkeley
Editor
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for July, 1972
MANAGEMENT INFORMATION SYSTEMS:
The Trouble With Them
Colonel T. B. Mancinelli
u.s. Army
College of Naval Warfare
Naval War College
Newport, R.I. 02840
"Often the problems incident to the manual part and the automated part of a
management information system are not even recognized, so that both parts go on
their merry way uncoordinated."
During the past decade, in the business management arena, the popular phrase, "management information system(s) (MIS)", has become as common as
mom's apple pie. For management writers it has become the sexy front cover often found on paperback
fiction. If one wants to attract the notice of serious business readers, then including in the title
some mention of ma~gement information systems, is
a sure attention getter.
A Management Information System Jungle
Certainly there is no lack of scholarly writing
on man~gement information systems. Harold Koontz
wrote of the "Management Theory Jungle" 1, and few
would disagree that a "management information system theory jungle" has engulfed the business community. A visit to any well-stocked library and perusal through the card catalog will reveal hundreds of
books and articles that deluge management with this
fascinating and seemingly new topic. Most of these
works are aimed at defining a MIS, telling how to
design, to control, redesign, use, and misuse one.
Also, there are some writings that adopt a negative
approach, and, claiming that MIS do not exist, cannot be developed, are a utopia, and so on.
Why More on Management Information Systems?
If what has just been outlined is true, and few
will disagree, then why this article on Management
Information Systems?
During the past several years the author has, in
two different positions, worked with a management
information system in the U.S. Army. Few others can
match this MIS in size and complexity. Actually, the
Army doesn't call it an MIS, but by generally accepted definition, it is that. In Army terminology, it
is called the Personnel Information System. Its purpose is to support, through the use of computers and
automatic data processing, the management of Army
personnel: their-procure-ment; their individual training; their assignments; their use; and their eventual
separation.
Since the Army's mu~ter totals around a million
personnel scattered to the four corners of the earth,
COMPUTERS AND AUTOMATION for July, 1972
the magnitude of the task is obvious. Add the fact
that tens of thousands of personnel enter and leave
the service each month, and tens of thousands of
others are continually moving from one place to another, the magnitude and the complexity of the Army's
Personnel Information System becomes staggering.
Based on some scholarly effort, considerable practical experience, and untold 'frustration, I have developed rather strong views and opinions concerning
management information systems. Some of those views
are set forth in this paper. They may be of some
small value, I hope, to others grappling with the
real-life problems of developing an effective MIS.
The views set down here have been considerably influenced by actual experience in the Army's Personnel Information System. Nevertheless, it seems that
some of these experiences reported and lessons learned are applicable to any management information system. In sum, these views are the practitioners' view
rather than the conceptual or academic views so often
found in today's literature.
What is a Management Information System?
Thus far the term "management information system"
has been used at least a half dozen times and remains
undefined. Taking the words literally, the definition of a MIS would be something like this:
Management: Getting things done through other
people.
Information: That part ·of data of most value
to the user.
System: A group of inter-related parts making
an irreducible whole.
Putting these ideas together with connectors, the
definition of an MIS comes out like this:
Gettipg things done through other people using
that part of data of most value to the user
so as to operate a group of inter-related
parts making an irreducible whole.
11
Such a defini tion seems logical i f not entirely clear.
A better definition might be:
A system that collects, processes, and provides management personnel with needed information for decision making that will result in
the successful accomplishment of the organization's mission.
This latter definition is the one used in this
article.
Even Moses Had One
Although the term, management information system,
is somewhat new, in fact, management information systems have existed since the beginning of time. The
Bible tells of the problems that Moses encountered
in developing a MIS. Every organization in the past
has had a MIS. All organizations in being today have
one -- and some have two or more. Although MIS are
not new nor are their uses, yet there are some distinct differences between those of the present century and those of prior years. Four characteristics
distinguish today's management information systems.
Enter the Computer
First and foremost, is the use of the computer
and automatic data processing. Today, most large
organizations have computers or some form of ADP.
Increasingly, this is also true for smaller organizations. These so-called space-age marvels have been
introduced into management information systems as a
n~w tool -- a new aid for helping management get their
JQb done. It has always been necessary to collect
and use data to operate organizations. Up until the
Qomputer age this was all done manually. Now management has a very efficient machine to help do this
job. One might argue that the age-old definition of
management now needs recasting to: "Getting things
done through other people and machines".
Organizations Have Multiple MIS
Second, organizations that have introduced the
oompu.ter have in reali ty at least two management
information systems. There is the one that existed
before the computer arrived -- the manual MIS. Although it is probably true that the original MIS has
been in part automated, yet some parts of the noncompu.ter MIS still exist. Besides, there is the newly developed automated MIS, which has some parts of
the Qld MIS and some new parts. No organization has
yet developed a totally automated MIS, and in this
century, there is little likelihood that any will.
John Dearden of the Harvard Business School wrote
ot' the "Myth of Real Time Management Information,,2,
and it is a myth that any organization has a single
integrated MIS. Large organizations may have a half
dozen MIS, each with an automated and manual portion.
Some of the problems inherent in this multiplicity
of MIS are discussed below.
More and More Data Requirements
Third, organizations that have introduced the
computer have developed an insatiable lust for more
data. Invariably, the arrival of the computer in
an organization triggers a new craze for more and
more data. And all of this new data is needed in a
more timely, accurate, and complete fashion. Functions and missions may not change but the claimed
need for more data grows on and on. Functional managers insist that they must have more data and the
data processors love this, for that enlarges the
scope of their operations.
12
If one looks at the data available in an organization several years after the introduction of the
computer, and compares it to what was available in
the pre-computer days, the difference is almost always staggering. One wonders how the organization
ever existed in the good old manual days.
Centralization is "In"
Fourth, and finally, present day MIS are characterized by increased decision-making at the top level. Decisions that were left to middle management
and lower management in the pre-computer days are
being moved to the "front office". Creeping centralization of the decision-making process is found
in every large organization. It is found in the White
House, in all governmental agencies, in the miiitary,
and in the business community. Likewise, the process
of centralization is found more and more in our modern
society in general. We are living in an age of centralization, like it or not. Centralization is" in"
and decentralization is "out". Organizations appear
to have no more chance of returning to the goop old
days of decentralization than there is a likelihood
of returning to the horse and buggy.
What impact and what problems evolve from the
aforementioned characteristics of present day management information systems? There are many. Here,
only four of the more consequential will be touched
on.
Incompatibility of Manual
VS.
Automated MIS
First, there is the problem of integration pf
the manual and automated elements of a MIS. ~erhaps
it is the lack of integration that is the perplexing
problem. The larger and the more diversified the
organization, the more difficult the issue becomes.
A MIS as a system has four inter-related parts:
Input, Processing, Output, and Storage. When the
computer is introduced into an organization, the
parts of the MIS do not change, but their arrangement does. The parts in a manual MIS are arranged
from Input, to Processing, to Use or Output, and
finally to Storage. Not so for the automated part
of the MIS. The arrangement is from Input to Storage to Processing and then to Ouput or Use.
This change in the arrangement of the elements
of the MIS happens because when the computer is used,
traditional methods for data processing are changed.
Input is still collected as the first step, but then
it is put into storage -- into data banks, and then
processed -- by machine
,and then finally used.
This incompatibility in the arrangement of the parts
of the automated versus the manual elements of the
MIS creates a number of organizational problems. The
automated element, with few exceptions, is run by
computer people -- technicians, while the manual side
is always in the hands of functional managers. What
occurs is:
duplicate and redundant data collection and
processing;
use of different criteria;
lack of adequate communication;
lack of coordination between the two parts,
etc.
And this mentions but a few of
Frequently, there are disputes
lity of information, with each
the more accurate and complete
the consequences.
concerning credibiside claiming to have
data.
COMPUTERS AND AUTOMATION for July, 1972
Timely, Accurate and Complete Data:
The Biggest Problem
The number one problem in tOday's computer supported MIS is the lack of timeliness, accuracy, and
completeness of data. Some may disagree with this
assertion. However, based on painful experience,
no other factor can have a more serious impact on
achieving an effective MIS than an inability to obtain needed data that is sufficiently accurate, complete, and available in a timely way.
C.C. Weinmeister recently defined a successful
MIS as "a system designed to provide operational
management with accurate information upon which to
make sound decisions that will result in the success of the endeavor".3
The trouble with this defini tion is that it seeks to design a system tha t wi 11
provide accurate information. A computer system can
be designed that will process accurate information,
but it cannot be designed to provide only accurate
information. True, there are numerous computer techniques for editing, checking, comparing, and testing
for the validity of data. but as yet no one has designed the failsafe computer system that furnishes
only accurate information on a timely basis. Data
processors can design a highly efficient computer
system that wi 11, regrettably. a Iso process inaccurate data just as efficiently as it processes accurate q'ata.
To make the situation even worse, several factors
work against data accuracy. Functional managers -the users -- expect to be furnished the data they
need in a timely and accurate fashion. They feel
that the question of data accuracy, completeness,
and timeliness is a technical problem to be solved
by the data processors. On the other hand, the data
processors see their job as computer systems designers and operators. Data accuracy is a management
responsibility, say the data processors.
With management personnel demanding more and more
data, this conflict is escalated, and in large organizations, it can lead to a continuing unmanageable crisis. The original claims for obtaining a
computer were based on "how good things will be when
the new system is operational". Thus, nowhere in
the organization is the critical "data management"
responsibility clearly assigned.
Nor are the people available needed to do the job.
Just as man cannot live by bread alone, computer systems cannot provide accurate information by machines
alone.
Changing Role of Middle Management
The third problem results from the creeping centralization found in present day management information systems. As an organization moves more of the
decisions to the apex, the front office, the former
middle management decision makers lose both authority and responsibility. No matter how much better
the decisions may be, lower-level management personnel are anti-computer and anti-centralization. This
is understandable for they are being stripped, slowly 'but inexorably, of their authori ty, responsibi Ii ty,
and'former decision-making powers. What are they
being given in return to compensate for their loss?
Mainly, more requirements to collect and submit data
to the new decision makersl Is it any wonder that
middle and lower level management personnel show little enthusiasm for data accuracy, completeness, and
timeliness? Especially in large organizations, middle and lower level management are being required,
COMPUTERS AND AUTOMATION for July, 1972
more and more, to operate strictly wi thin the" syste~'.
There is little room left for individual
initiative and the important role at this level is
becoming more input oriented. This represents a
most serious human problem to be overcome in highly
centralized automated management information systems,
and thus far no one has come up wi th many good answers.
Need for I nformation Managers
The fourth problem concerning present day automated management information systems is the lack of
qualified "Information Managers". Some years ago
one wri ter said, "Today (1958) an abi li ty to make
correct decisions most of the time on the basis of
inadequate information is the mark of a good manager,
even on the middle management level. In the future,
the good middle management executive will be distinguished by his ability to utilize all of the data
before making a decision, and then to make a decision in accordance with the dictates of the data.,,4
The future is now -- but who is training the manager
to work under these new conditions? Unfortunately,
too little training of real value in this area is
available. Instead, everywhere there are executive
training courses in computers and MIS that pay scant
attention to the question of information management.
Generally, these charm courses get all involved in
technical hardware, software, and programming areas.
Rather than telling executives how to manage a MIS.
these courses teach him binary coded decimal notation, Boolean algebra, and FORTRAN. Often they send
home executives enthusiastic for a "Real Time Management Information System". From the content of
some of these courses, one can draw the conclusion
that the computer people are trying to buffalo management into believing that computer technology is
so complex that management had better let the data
processors worry about a computer supported MIS.
No Easy Solutions
As is the case in many situations, it is much
easier to define the problems than it is to offer
concrete solutions. The answers to the problems
cited in this article are not easy and not readymade. Nonetheless, any executives that have an
automated MIS must at least remove their heads from
the sand and recognize these problems as a starting
point. Often, the problems incident to the manual
part and the automated part of a MIS are not even
recognized, so that the both parts go on their merry
way uncoordinated. Data accuracy is often treated
as a minor and insignificant matter while the organization rushes to design and implement more complex
computer systems -- all using the same poor data.
Many organizations are now going through the craze
for sophisticated mathematical models, often overlooking the fact that the baseline data for such
models is the same inaccurate data used in less
sophisticated systems. Too little attention has
been given to the issue of how middle and lower level management personnel can be motivated to provide
timely, accurate, and complete data in the new era of
centralization. Uppermost, there is the critical
need for a new type of training in the science of
information management. This needs to be training
of management by management, training management by
data processing personnel.
Available computer hardware and software has far
outdistanced man's progress in the human aspects of
developing effective management information systems.
What is needed now is not fourth and fifth generation
computers, but rather a new emphasis on the people
part of MIS -- a new emphasis on the second generation
of management information systems.
[]
13
EDUCATION FOR DATA PROCESSING:
Yesterday I Today I Tomorrow
Thomas R. Tirney
Asst. Prof. of Economics and Business
University of Vermont
Burlington, Vt. 05401
"The colleges and the universities are in the best position of all formal education institutions
to provide for the need of the community and the organization in this area. "
Demand
The demand for qualified operators, programmers,
systems analysts, and project leaders continues to
be strong in a slow economy. Even though the number of advertised positions for these occupations
decreased over the past year, the field of data processing still constitutes the highest percentage of
jobs available - for confirmation, look in any large
metropolitan newspaper. The future for careers in
this area seems brighter than ever before.
It is my conclusion that qualified individuals
now in the field and individuals qualifying themselves for careers in data processing will have unlim~ted opportunities.
This conclusion is based upon the following reasons:
1. Increased dependence on the EDP system to reduce inefficiencies within the organization
2. Development of new uses for the EDP system in
order to increase productivity within the
organization
3. Need for faster data communication in providing information for decision-making for top
14
management down
level
to the lowest management
4. Acceptance of the computer by the computeroriented manager in using the computer system as a tool in accomplishing his objectives
5. Rapid growth in the next few years in the number of organizations that will be computeroriented and the number of computers in operation
6. Rapid growth of foreign nations in developing
their inventory of computer installations and
their sophistication in use of their computer
system, coupled with the trend of many United
States corporations to become multi-national
in nature
The latter two trends, chiefly, will create a
most impressive growth of opportunites in the field
of data processing.
Number of Computers and Installations
One recent survey (';'1) of general purpose computers estimated that there are 48,152 installations
in the United States and 32,211 installations in
foreign countries. In addition there are 13,879
COMPUTERS AND AUTOMATION for July, 1972
unfilled orders. Thus a total of 80,363 installations in operation as of April 1, 1971, with a potential of 93,879 within 18 months (by the end of
1972). This assumes that, when the computers on
order are delivered, these new systems will not release "used" computers to the secondary computer
market. If this assumption is not valid (and there
is no reason to expect it to be completely valid),
then it is quite possible that by the end of 1972
there could be close to or over 100,000 general purpose computers in operation. This is in contrast to
a projection made in 1966 (*2) that by 1975, 85,000
computers, both domestic and non-domestic, would be
in operation. It seems that this forecast was met
in early 1972. The number of variables that are
involved in forecasting is vast, but if the trend
continues, it is not inconceivable to have between
125,000 to 135,000 general purpose computers in
operation by about 1975 to 1978.
This growth, plus the drive for more effective
and efficient use of the compu ter system, will create
a heavy demand for qualified individuals in the field
of data processing. The demand is foreseeable, but
the supply of qualified individuals is not. What
will be done by the manufacturers, the educational
institutions, and the users of the computers to try
to meet the forecast needs? Before seeking to answer this question, it will be useful to put this
question in perspective, as to what has been done
and what is now being done.
A Dozen Years Ago
By 1959-60 the EDP Industry had grown to 6000+
computers in operation.
This was in relation to
10 to 15 computer installations in 1949-50. The
second generation computers were on line. The third
generation computer was a blueprint on drawing boards.
The career opportunities were unlimited. It was not
uncommon that a "good" man could increase his annual
salary $4,000 to $6,000 by job hopping. The job hop
reminded many of the game of "musical chairs". In a
survey conducted in 1959~*3) in which 4,647 individuals working in systems responded, 47% of them changed
jobs one or more times. The demand for operators,
programmers, and systems analysts was far greater
than the supply.
The basic premise that a programmer would be a
coding clerk for the systems analyst was lost in the
need to fill positions and to keep up with the work
load. The programmer became an apprentice systems
analyst. The programmers were in on the problem
from the begin~ing: working with the "client", laying out the problem, designing input and output, constructing the flow-chart, coding the program, testing and debugging the program, and then finally
creating the documentation for the operation of the
program. Thus the programmer was a person who performed all the functions on a given program while
the systems analyst was responsible for all the programs in a given system, while working on one of the
programs himself. In practice it was hard to tell
the difference between the two positions. Even in
some companies the terms were interchangeable.
oneself when the wherewithal to do so was not available. At this time very few courses in data processing were being taught at the college level. And
where courses were offered there was little or no
opportunity to interact with the machine. If you
were lucky and happened to hit on a "programming"
course with computer time available, it was usually
a first-generation computer. The lack of courses
at formal education insti tutions was easily explained.
If you were good enough to teach, then you were able
to command a high salary for your talents in the
work-a-day world. Thus how was one to "break" into
the field of data processing?
The career path to a systems analyst was fairly
simple. First, graduate from college with a degree in Accounting, Business Administration, or
Mathematics. Then take a "programming aptitude
test." If you passed that, you were on your way.
After a few weeks of orientation and on-the-job
training it was off to school again -- but this
time it was for only two, three, or four weeks
the computer manufacturer's type of school.
Instructors
The "instructors" for these courses were selected
from the ranks of the manufacturer's personnel who
had had experience in using that particular language.
They were not educators, only experienced program-~
mers. Thus in many, many cases they were unable to
communicate to the students the fundamentals and
complexities of the language. As these instructors
acquired the experience in the "teaching role," they
were usually transferred to another position in the
company or they left for a better position. In addition, it was not uncommon to have two or three or
more "instructors" during a two- or three-week
course. Since the instructors were "technical experts" in a particular language and/or system, they
were called into the field whenever a problem arose
in their area of expertise.
These courses in programming language usually did
not provide any machine time in which the student
could "test" his new knowledge. Tests were administered, but in most cases these tests required retention and memorization rather than understanding.
These students were "graduated" back to their organization as programmers.
It was fortunate that the qualifications of the
future programmer were high. It was for this reason
that most of the "graduates" from manufacturer's
schools learned almost in spite of the course. But
hold on, these courses were free. What did you expect for nothing? Yes, the courses were free, but
the users of the computer paid the price for educating their programmers. The price was paid in wasted
computer time, wasted production time, and inefficient programs.
Many recognized these problems, but I am sure
their reply to the state of the education in the
EDP field at this time would have been: "The industry is young. We are still learning. The educational process of the future will be better."
Pay and Qualifications
In 1969
The average individual involved in systems work
in this period was well paid ($12,000 median salary)
(*3), h~ghlyeducated (68% had at least an undergraduate degree)' (':'3), experienced (82% had four or more
years of systems experience) (':'3), and in the prime
of his life (54% were under 40 years of age). The
normal advice to college students was to pursue the
career path 'that would lead to the EDP field. It
was good advice, but the problem was how to prepare
COMPUTERS AND AUTOMATION for July, 1972
By 1969 it seemed like the prophesy was coming
true. A great many universities were now committed
to provide education for students wishing to pursue
careers in data processing. All across the nation
computer schools had sprung up to provide instruction for future programmers. The manufacturers
seemed to be setting up separate divisions for the
EDP education process.
15
The opportunities were still available for individuals. The number of computers now in operation
exceeded 40,000. Many third generation computers
were on line with hundreds on order. The demand
for EDP personnel far outnumbered the available supply. Job hopping was still a way of moving up the
organization structure quicker but to a lesser degree than in 1959. Although the educational requirements were somewhat relaxed for entry into
the EDP field (high school graduates passing the
aptitude test), the median salary had increased to
$16,000. There were also more younger (58% under
40 years of age) individuals working in this field.
Thus the advice of pursuing a career in data processing still seemed valid.
There were 251 institutions of higher education
offering majors in Data Processing and Computers,
or Information Science *3). In addition there were
many other universities planning or ready to implement a major degree in this field. The basic problem that all of these institutions faced was acquiring the qualified personnel to staff these programs.
This need placed an additional burden on a market
already short on qualified individuals.
The graduates of four-year programs might provide
some relief to the high manpower demand -- but this
relief will not materialize for another two to five
years and will be directed at posi tions above the
programming level. The reasons are:
1. The demand for teachers at the university and
college level is still high. The "cream of
the graduating" classes will be influenced
to pursue a graduate degree (MBA or Ph.D.)
while teaching at the university level.
2. The graduates with majors in data processing
will not accept jobs as programmers because
in most cases they will have knowledge and
experience far superior to individuals at
this level. The positions which they would
seck and expect would be at a higher level.
Commercial. Computer Schools
Outside of the delay, the college programs seem
to fit well with the dev~loping education system,
since computer schools supposedly would provide the
programmers and operators that would be needed.
But an article in the Wall Street Journal by Dan
Rottenberg entitled, "Many Computer Schools Charged
Wi th Offering A Useless Education" (';'4), quickly deflated the value of computer schools for supplying
manpower for these positions. Mr. Rottenberg points
out cases of misrepresentation of the school's facilities to the student, the example of the unflunkable
aptitude tests, the outright fraud by some schools,
the financial failure of schools with the students
left holding the bag, the poor facilities of sachools
(many do not own a computer nor do they rent computer
time for the students), and the poor qualifications
of the instructors.
Mr. Epstein, of the Massachusetts Attorney General's office, stated that "Computer schools have
become the latest version of the old shell game."
"About 75% of [these] schools should. be closed. The
training they provide simply does not prepare their
s tuden ts for the kind of jobs that are available."
commented Anton Myse, the coordinator of data processing for the U.S. General Services Administration in six midwestern states. As the final blow
to the credibility of these schools, most firms will
not give preference to computer school graduates even
16
when it comes to filling the lowest level of computer
operator aides.
Manufacturers Schools
This left the responsibility of providing manpower needs to the schools sponsored by the manufacturers of the computers. At this same time the manufacturers announced that these educational services
were no longer free. Even though many users were
upset over the additional cost, they envisioned a
better educational effort by the manufacturers, thus
providing better qualified "graduates."
The expectation of the users did not materialize.
The manufacturers changed little if anything in providing education to users personnel, except in charging a fee. The quality of the "graduated" programmer
did not get betteri it got worse. No longer could
the "students" learn in spite of the material because
the educational background of the class was heterogenous.
Many companies were hiring high school graduates
for program trainee positions. In a survey conduc~
ted in 1970 (*5) 62.5% of the responding companies
indicated that their educational requirement for a
program trainer was a high school degree. These
courses thus became a two-way exchange between the
instructor and a dominant sub-group and, in most
cases, this sUb-group was the college graduates. The
resul t was that most of the students (the high school
students) learned little.
"
The results were: a small number of college graduates majoring in data processing available for employmenti almost unemployable graduates of the computer schools, and. the deterioration of the education received in the manufacturer's school. So it
seems that the educational aspects of the EDP profession have reached an all time low.
Now the retort from the majority of users had
changed from "will be better" to "must be better."
Organization Within-House Instruction
The failure of external sources has required more
and more companies to look within the organization
for the resources to meet their educational needs in
data processing. The 1970 survey (5) revealed that
33.8% of the organizations indicated that they had
created in-house educational programs for data processing personnel. Of the 61.5% who are continuing
to use outside sources, approximately half (30.1%)
stated that this reliance would be temporary until
they too were able to perform this function themselves. The remainder would use external resources
as their primary source of education with on-the-job
training as a supplement, because of the financial
expenses incurred for an in-house training program.
Learner-Controlled Instruction
As the years roll by, the in-house training centers will evolve into the type of educational environment envisioned by Simon Ramo (6) in 1957:
... this [enVironment] has some special equipment. Each chair includes a speCial set of
push buttons .... A motion picture wi 11 provide
the material for the student. He is asked questions about the material just presented, usually in the form of alternatives. Sometimes he
is told that the concept will be repeated and
the questions reasked .•.. lie may even be asked
whether, in his opinion, he understood what was
being presented.
COMPUTERS AND AUTOMATION for July, 1972
This environment requires little human guidance or
need for full-time instructors. The student will be
able to progress at his own speed and to fit his education into his schedule at his discretion. The "expert" would be called upon only to clarify or to answer questions that develop from the presentation.
The student will be able to review any or all sections
of a course. The interaction between student and machine provides immediate feedback during the presentation of the material. The available film library
will include courses for the operators, programmers,
systems analysts, and other personnel in the organization. The approach can be used by a large group or
a single individual.
Joint Training Centers
,
Some companies will combine their resources to provide for joint training centers. This center, in ad,dition to providing for their nee~, would offer education to small organizations not in a financial
position to create an in-house center, to social
organizations such as hospitals and non-profit agencies, and to local and state government. The availability to social organizations and government may
be on a cost basis, or as a tax credit, or without
cost as a gesture of the organization 9 s social responsibili ty.
The future function of the manufacturer's school
will be primarily that of providing courses of special inter~st such as the unique aspects of their
own systems. The computer programming schools, unless a new approach is taken, will fade out of existence.
College Cou rses
College and universities will step into this gap
by providing certificate programs in data processing.
The program will include courses in program languages,
theory of computers, communication, mathematics and
statistics; management, accounting, finance, information systems, and many, many hours on their secondgeneration and third-generation computers. The emphasis will be the integration of the computer into all
phases of the program. The students will have access
to qualified professional educators, excellent facilities, and will be in an atmosphere and environment
conducive to learning. These programs will usually
be offered at night and be designed to be completed
within two years, if the student attends classes for
two nights a week.
The two-year part-time college programs will open
the door quickly to individuals interested in data
proce~sing careers.
The in-house training programs
will provide the need for personnel to update their
skill and to further their knowledge in order to progress along their career paths.
The four-year college program will fulfill the
supply for personnel at the systems level and executi ve level.
Cost and Timetable
In answering the question "What is being done by
manufacturers, educational institutions, and users
of computers to meet the need for qualified personnel
in data processing?" other questions are generated.
These questions deal with cost and the timetable for
realizing these predictions.
Simon Ramo recognizes that his system would be an
"enormously expensive operation." One course would
not involve one or two hours of film, but ten to fifteen hours. He stated that, "if we pay something
COMPUTERS AND AUTOMATION for July, 1972
like fifty cents an hour to see an ordinary motion
picture, then [say] a trigonometry course would cost
thousands of dollars per student" (':'6). In 1957 this
may have been true. But with today's advances in
method and technology and the use of video tape the
cost is no longer a prohibitive factor. Although
the cost to implement this concept in a school system would run into millions of dollars for equipment
and software programs, the cost for a specific course,
say FORTRAN V Programming language, is well within
the budget of the majority of today's organizations.
In fact there exist many video tape courses in the
field of data processing but without the concept of
interaction.
The machine of which Simon Ramo spoke is no longer
a concept of the future. It is here today -- responsive television. During 1972 this machine and accompanying software programs on various data processing
subjects will be available through membership in a
data processing education network.
Certificates in Data Processing
So far little effort has been made by universities
and colleges in providing certificate programs in data
processing. But universities and colleges all across
the nation are re-evaluating their relation and purpOBe to the community and the organizations which are
the employers of their products. Members of the community need direction and education in order to pursue a worthwhile career. The education that the majority of individuals require is below a college degree. But organizations need skilled· and educate'd
personnel. With the expert professional educator and
thei r compu ter faci Ii ties, the uni versi ties are in the
best posi tion of all formal education insti tutions to
provide for the need of both the community and the
organization in this area. A beginning has been made
at some universities. For example, Temple University
in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, has a Certificate Program in Data Processing. At last report (Spring 1971)
this two-year night program had 75 to 100 students
enrolled.
Thus the ingredients for tomorrow's education are
here today. The growth, expansion, and effectiveness
of these ingredients to meet the needs for qualified
data processing personnel will depend upon the foresight and ingenuity of educators, organizational executives, and data processing professionals.
[J
References
(1) "EDP Industry Report," April 1,1971; by International Data Corporation, Newtonville, Mass.
(2) trThe State of the Information Processing Industry," Datamation Data Sheet, 1966.
(3) "Profile of a Systems Man," Association for Systems Management, 1970, Cleveland, Ohio.
(4) Rottenberg, Dan, "Many Computer Schools Charged
Wi th Offering a Useless Education," in Wall
Street Journal, June 10, 1970.
(5) The results of a survey conducted in a large
metropolitan area in the summer of 1970 by
University Affiliates, a consulting firm; 227
companies responded to a mail questionnaire
pertaining to equipment, training. and recruitment.
(6) Ramo, Simon, "A New Technique of Educntion," in
"Engineering and Science Monthly," Vol. 21, October, 1957.
17
The Impact of the Computer on Society - Some Comments
Joseph Weizenbaum
Prof. of Computer Science
Mass. Institute of Technology
Cambridge, Mass. 02139
UThe computer industry
is rather like an island economy
in which the natives make a living by taking in each other's laundry. "
The structure of the typical essay
on "The impact of computers on society" is ,as follows: First there is an
"on the one hand" statement. It tells
all the goodnhings computers have
already done for society and often even
attempts to argue that the social order
would already have collapsed were it
not for the "computer revolution."
This is usually followed by an "on theother hand" caution which tells of certain problems the jntroduction of computers brings in its wake. The threat
posed to individual privacy by large
data banks and the danger of largescale unemployment induced by industrial automation are usually mentioned.
Finally, the glorious present and prospective achievements of the computer
are applauded, while the dangers alluded to in the second part are shown
to be capable of being alleviated by
sophisticated technological fixes. The
closing paragraph consists of a plea
for generous societal support for more,
and more large-scale, computer research and development. This is
usually coupled to the more or less
subtle assertion that only computer
science, hence only the computer scientist, can guard the world against the
admittedly hazardous fallout of applied
computer technology.
'In fact, the computer has had very
considerably less societal impact than
the mass media would lead us to believe. Certainly, there are enterprises
like space travel that could not have
been undertaken without computers.
Certainly the computer industry, and
with it the computer education industry, has grown to enormous proportions. But much of the industry is
self-serving. It is rather like an island
economy -:in which the natives make a
living by taking in each-other's laundry.
The part that is not self-serving is
largely supported by government agencies and other gigantic enterprises that
know the v,alue of everything but the
price of notlhing, that is, that know 1lhe
short-range utility of computer systems
but have no idea of their ultimate social
cost. [n any case, ~airline reservation
systems and computerized hospitals
serve only a tiny, largely the most afHu-
(Reprinted with permission from the author and from Science, Volume 176, No. 4035,
12 May 1972, published by the American Association for the Advancement of Science,
1515 Massachusetts Ave., NW, Washington, D.C. 20005)
18
ent, fraction of society. Such things
cannot be said to have an impact on
society generally.
Side Effects of Technology
The more important reason that I
dismiss the 'argument which I have
caricatured is that the dIrect sc;>cietal
effects of any pervasive new technology
are as nothing compared to its much
more subtle and ultimately much more
important side effects. In that sense,
the societal impact of the computer has
not yet been felt.
To help firmly fix the idea of the
importance of subtle indirect effects of
technology, consider the impact on society of the invention of the microscope. When it was invented in the
middle of the 17th century, the dominant commonsense theory of disease
was fundamentally that disease was a
punishment, visited upon an individual
by God. The sinner's body was thought
to be inhabited by various so-called
humors brought into disequilibrium in
accordance with divine justice. The
cure for disease was therefore to be
found 'first in penance and second in
the balancing of humors as, for example, by bleeding. Bleeding was, after
all, both painful, hence punishment
and penance, and potentially balancing
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for July, 1972
in that it actually removed substance
from the body. The microscope enabled man to see microorganisms and
thus paved the way for the germ theory
of disease. The enormously surprising
discovery of extremely small living organisms also induced the idea of a
continuous chain of life which, in turn,
was a necessary intellectual precondition for the emergence of Darwinism.
Both the germ theory of disease and
the theory of evolution profoundly altered man's conception of his contract
with God and consequently his selfimage. Politically these ideas served to
help diminish the power of the Church
and, more generally, to legitimize the
questioning of the basis of hitherto
unchallenged authority. I do not say
that the microscope alone was responsible for the enormous social changes
that followed its invention. Only that it
made possible the kind of paradigm
shift, even on the commonsense level,
without which these changes might
have been impossible.
Is it reasonable to ask whether the
computer will induce similar changes
in man's image of himself and whether
that influence will prove to be its most
important effect on society? I think so,
although I hasten to add that I don't
believe the computer has yet told us
much about man and his nature. To
come to grips with the question, we
must first ask in what way the computer is different from man's many
other machines. Man has built
two fundamentally different kinds of
machines, nonautonomous and autonomous. An autonomous machine is one
that operates for long periods of time,
not on the basis of inputs from the real
world, for example from sensors or
from human drivers, but on the basis
of internalized models of some aspect
of the real world. Clocks are examples
of autonomous machines in that they
operate on the basis of an internalized
model of the planetary system. The
computer is, of course, the example
par excellence. It is able to internalize
models of essentially unlimited complexity and of a fidelity limited only by
the genius of man.
It is the autonomy of the computer
we value. When, for example, we speak
of the power of computers 'as increasing with each new hardware and
software development, we mean that,
because of their increasing speed and
storage capacity, and possibly thanks
to new programming tricks, the new
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for July, 1972
computers can internalize ever more
complex and ever more faithful models
of ever larger slices of reality. It seems
strange then that, just when we exhibit
virtually 'an idolatry of autonomy with
respect to machines, serious thinkers in
respected academies [I have in mind
B. F. Skinner of Harvard University
(1)] can rise to question autonomy as
a fact for man. II do not think that the
appearance of this paradox at this time
is accidental. To understand it, we
must realize that man's commitment to
science has .always had a masochistic
component.
Time after time science has led us to
insights that, at least when seen superficially, diminish man. Thus Galileo
removed man from the center of the
universe, Darwin removed him from
his place separate from the animals,
and Freud showed his rationality to be
an illusion. Yet man pushes his inquiries further and deeper. I cannot
help but think that there is an analogy
between man's pursuit of scientific
knowledge ,and an individual's commitment to psychoanalytic therapy. Both
are undertaken in the full realization
that what the inquirer may find may
well damage his self-esteem. Both may
reflect his determination to find meaning in his existence through struggle
in truth, however painful that may be,
mther than to live without meaning in
a world of ill-disguised illusion. However, I am also aware that sometimes
people enter psychoanalysis unwilling
to put their illusions at risk, not searching for a deeper reality but in order to
convert the insights they hope to gain
to personal power. The analogy to
man's pursuit of science does not break
down with that observation.
Each time a scientific discovery
shatters a hitherto fundamental cornerstone of the edifice on which man's
self-esteem is built, there is an enormous reaction, just as is the case under
similar circumstances in psychoanalytic
therapy. Powerful defense mechanisms,
beginning with denial ·and usually terminating in rationalization, are brought
to bear. Indeed, the psychoanalyst suspects that, when a patient appears to
accept a soul-shattering insight without
resistance, his very casualness may well
mask his refusal to allow that insight
truly operational status in his selfimage. But what is the psychoanalyst
to think about the patient who positively embraces tentatively proffered,
profoundly humiliating self-knowledge,
when he embraces it land instantly converts it to a new foundation of his life?
Surely such an event is symptomatic of
a major crisis in the mental life of the
patient.
I believe we are now at the beginning of just such a crisis in the mental
life of our civilization. The microscope,
I have argued, brought in its train a
revision of man's image of himself.
But no one in the mid-17th century
could have foreseen that. The possibiHty that the computer will, one way
or another, demonstrate that, in the
inimit'able phrase of one of my esteemed colleagues, "the brain is merely
a meat machine" is one that engages
academicians, industrialists, and journalists in the here and now. How has
the computer contributed to bringing
about this very sad state of affairs? It
must be said right away that the computer alone is not the chief causative
agent. It is merely an extreme extmpolation of technology. When seen as an
inducer of philosophical dogma, it is
merely the reductio ad absurdum of
a technological ideology. But how does
it come to be regarded as a source of
philosophic dogma?
Theory versus Performance
We must be clear about the fact that
a computer is nothing without a program. A program is fundamentally a
transformation of one computer into
another that has autonomy and that, in
a very real sense, behaves. Programming languages describe dynamk processes. And, most importantly, the processes they describe can be actually
carried out. Thus we can build models
of any aspect of the real world that
interests us and that we understand.
And we can make our models work.
But we must be careful to remember
that la computer model is a description
that works. Ordinarily, when we speak
of A being a model of B, we mean
that a theory about some aspects of
the behavior of ·B is also a theory of
the same aspects of the behavior of
A. It follows that when, for example,
we consider a computer model of
paranoia, like that published by Colby
et al. (2), we must not be persuaded
that it tells us anything about paranoia
on the groundf'. that it, in some sense,
mirrors the behavior of a paranoiac.
After all, a plain typewriter in some
sense mirrors the behavior of an lautis19
tic child (one types a question and gets
no response whatever), but it does not
help us to understand autism. A model
must be made to stand or fall on the
basis of its theory. Thus, while programming languages may have put a
new power in the hands of social scientists in that this new notation may
have freed them from the vagueness of
discursive descriptions, their obligation
to build defcnsibl.e the.oriesis in no way
diminished. Even errors can be pronounced wHh utmost formality and eloquence. But they are n.ot thereby transmuted to truth.
The failure .to make distinctions between descriptions, even those that
"work," and theories accounts in large
part for the fact that those who refuse
to accept the view of man as machine
have been put on the defensive. Recent
advances in computer understanding of
natural language offer an excellent case
in point. Halle .and Chomsky, to mention only· the two with whom I am
most familiar, have long labored on a
theory of language which any model of
language behavior must satisfy (3).
Their aim is Jike that of the physicist
who writes .a set of differential equations that anyone riding a bicycle must
satisfy. No physicist claims that a person need know, let alone be able to
solve, such differential equations in
order to become a competent cyclist.
Neither do Halle and Chomsky claim
that humans know or knowingly obey
the rules they believe to govern language behavior. Halle and Chomsky
also strive, as do physical theorists, to
identify the constants and parameters
of their theories with components of
reality. They hypothesize that their
rules constitute a kind of projective
description of certain aspects of the
structure of the human mind. Their
problem is thus not merely to discover
economical rules to account for language behavior, but also to infer economic mechanisms which determine that
precisely those rules are to be preferred
over all others, Since they are in this
way forced to attend to the human
mind, not only that of speakers of
English, they must necessarily be concerned with all human language behavior-,-not just that related to the
understanding of English.
The enormous scope of their task is
illustrated by their observation that in
all human languages declarative sentences are often transformed into questions by a permutation of two of their
20
words. (John is here --- Is John here?)
It is one thing to describe rules that
transform declarative sentences into
questions-a simple permutation rule
is clearly insufficient-but another thing
to describe a "machine" that necessitates those rules when others would,
all else being equal, be simpler. Why,
for example, is it not so that declarative sentences read backward transform those sentences into questions?
The answer must be that other constraints on the "machine" combine
against this local simplicity in favor of
a more nearly global economy. Such
examples illustrate the depth of the
level of explanation that HalIe and
Chomsky are trying to achieve. No
wonder that they stand in awe of their
subject matter.
Workers in computer comprehension of natural language operate in
what is usually called performance
mode. It is as if they are building machines that can ride bicycles by following heuristics like "if you feel a
displacement to the left, move your
weight to the left." There can be, and
often is, a strong interaction between
the development of theory and the empirical task of engineering systems
whose theory is not yet thoroughly
understood. Witness the synergistic cooperation between aerodynamics and
aircraft design in the first quarter of
the present century. Still. what counts
in performance mode is not the elaboration of theory but the performance
of systems. And the systems being
hammered together by the new crop
of computer semanticists are beginning
(just beginning) to perform.
Since computer scientists have recognized the importance of the interplay
of syntax, semantics, and pragmatics,
and with it the importance of computermanipulable knowledge, they have made
progress. Perhaps by the end of the
present decade, computer systems will
exist with which specialists, such as
physicians and chemists and ·mathematicians, wilI converse in natural
language. And surely some part of such
achievements will have been based on
other successes in, for example, computer simulation of cognitive processes.
It is understandable that any success in
this area, even if won empirically and
without accompanying enrichments of
theory, can easily lead to certain delusions being planted. Is it, after all, not
terribly tempting to believe that a
computer that understands natural lan-
guage at all, however narrow the context, has captured something of the
essence of man? Descartes himself
might have believed it. Indeed, by way
of this very understandable seduction,
the computer comes to bea source of
philosophical dogma.
I am tempted to recite how performance programs are composed and
how things that don't work quite correctly are made to work via all sorts
of strategems which do not even pretend to have any theoretical foundation. But the very asking of the question. "Has the computer captured the
essence of man?" is a diversion and,
in that sense, a trap. For the real question "Does man understand the essence of man?" cannot .be answered
by technology and hence certainly not
by any technological instrument.
The Technological Metaphor
asked earlier what the psychoanalyst is to think when a patient
grasps a tentatively proffered deeply
humiliating interpretation and attempts
to convert it immediately to a new
foundation of his life. I now think I
phrased that question too weakly. What
·if the psychoanalyst merely coughed
and the cough entrained the consequences of which I speak? That is
our situation today. Computer science,
particularly its artificial intelligence
branch, has coughed. Perhaps the press
has unduly amplified that cough- but
it is only a cough nevertheless. I cannot help but think that the eagerness
to believe that man's whole nature has
suddenly been exposed by that cough,
and that it has been shown to be a
clockwork. is a symptom of ·something
terribly wrong.
What is wrong, I think, is that we
have permitted technological metaphors, what Mumford (4) calls the
"Myth of the Machine," and technique
itself to so thoroughly pervade our
thought processes that we have finally
abdicated to technology the very duty
to formulate questions. Thus sensible
men correctly perceive that large data
banks and enormous networks of computers threaten man. But they leave it
to technology to formulate the corresponding question. Where a simple man
might ask: "Do we need these things?",
technology asks "what electronic wizardry will make them safe?" Where a
simple man will ask "is it good?", techCOMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for July, 1972
nology asks "will it work?" Thus science, even wisdom, becomes what technology and most of all computers can
handle. Lest this be thought to be an
exaggeration, I quote from the work
of H. A. Simon, one of nhe most senior
of American computer scientists (5):
As we succeed in broadening and deepening our knowledge-theoretical and
empirical-about computers, we shall discover that in large part their behavior
is governed by simple general laws, that
what appeared as complexity in the computer program was, to a considerable
extent, complexity of the environment to
which the program was seeking to adapt
its behavior.
To the extent that this prospect can
be realized, it opens up an exceedingly
important role for computer simulation
as a tool for achieving a deeper understanding of human behavior. For if it is
the organization of components, and not
their physical properties, that largely determines behavior, and if computers are
organized somewhat in the image of man,
then the computer becomes an obvious device for exploring the consequences of
alternative organizational assumptions for
human behavior.
and
A man, viewed as a behaving system, is
quite simple. The apparent complexity
of his behavior over time is largely a
reflection of the complexity of the environment in which he finds himself.
. . . I believe that this hypothesis holds
even for the whole man.
We already know that those aspects
of the behavior of computers which
cannot be attributed to the complexity
of their programs is governed by simple
general laws-ultimately by the laws of
Boolean algebra. And of course the
physical properties of the computer's
components are nearly irrelevant to its
behavior. Mechanical relays are logically equivalent to tubes and to transistors and to artificial neurons. And of
course' the complexity of computer programs is due to the complexity of the
environments, including the computing
environments themselves, with which
they were designed to deal. To what
else could it possibly be due? So, what
Simon sees as prospective is already
realized. But does this collection of
obviolls and simple facts lead to the
conclusion that man is as simple as
are computers? When Simon leaps to
that conclusion and then formulates the
issue as ,he has done here, that is, when
he suggests that the behavior of the
whole mall may be understood in terms
of the behavior of computers as govCOMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for July, 1972
erned by simple general laws, then the
very possibility of understanding man
as an autonomous being, as an individual with deeply internalized values,
that very possibility is excluded. How
does one insult a machine?
The question "Is the brain merely a
meat machine?", which Simon puts in
a so much more sophisticated form, is
typical of the kind of question formulated by, indeed formulatable only by,
a technological mentality. Once it is
accepted as legitimate, arguments as
to what a computer can or cannot do
"in principle" begin to rage and themselves become legitimate. But the legitimacy of the technological questionfor example, is human behavior to be
understood either in terms of the organization or of the physical properties
of "components"-need not be ·admitted in the first instance. A human
question can be asked instead. Indeed,
we might begin bv asking what has
already become of "the whole man"
when he can conceive of computers organized in his own image.
The success of technique and of
some technological explanations has, as
I've suggested, tricked us into permitting technology to formulate important
questions for us-questions whose very
forms severely diminish the number of
degrees of freedom in our range of
decision-making. Whoever dictates the
questions in large part determines the
answers. In that sense, technology,
and especially computer technology,
has bec'ome a self-fulfilling nightmare
reminiscent of that of the lady who
dreams of being raped and begs her
attacker to be kind to her. He answers
"it's your dream, lady." We must come
to see that technology is our dream and
that we must ultimately decide how
it is to end.
I have suggested that the computer
revolution need not and ought not to
call man's dignity and autonomy into
que1stion, that it is a kind of pathology that moves men to wring from
it unwarranted, enormously damaging
'interpretations. Is then the computer
less threatening that we might have
thought? Once we realize that our
visions, possibly nightmarish visions,
determine the effect of our own creations on us and on our society, their
threat to us is surely diminished. But
that is ,not to say that this realization
alone will wipe out all danger. For
e".ample, apart from the erosive effect
of a technological mentality on man's
self-image. there are practical attacks
on the freedom and dignity of man in
which computer technology plays a
cr,itical role.
I mentioned earlier that computer
science has come to recognize the importance of building knowledge into
machines. We already have a machine
-Dendral-(6) that commands more
chemistry than do many Ph.D. chemists, and another-Mathlab-(7) that
commands more applied mathematics
than do many applied mathematicians.
Both Dendral and Mathlab contain
knowledge that can be evaluated in
terms of the explicit theories from
which it was derived. If the user be·
lieves that a result Mathlab delivers is
wrong, then, apart from possible program errors, he must be -in disagreement, not with the machine or its
programmer, but with a specific mathematical theory. But what about the
many programs on which management,
most particularly the government and
the military, rely, programs which can
in no sense be said to rest on explicable
theories but are instead enormous
patchworks of programming techniques
strung together to make them work?
Incomprehensible Systems
In our eagerness to exploit every advance in technique we quickly incorporate the lessons learned from machine manipUlation of knowledge in
theory-based systems into such patcihworks. They then "work" better. I have
in mind systems like target selection
systems used in Vietnam and wa'r
games used in the Pentagon, ,and so
on. These often g,igantic systems are
put together by teams of programmers,
often working over a time span of
many years. But by the time the systems come into use, most of the original programmers have left or turned
their attention to other pursuits. It is
precisely when gigantic systems begin
to be used that their inner workings
can no longer be understood by any
single person or by a small team of
individuals. Norbert Wiener, the father
of cybernetics, foretold this phenomenon in a remarkably prescient article
(8) published more than a decade ago.
He said there:
It may well be that in principle we can-
not make any machine the elements of
whose behavior we cannot comprehend
sooner or later. This does not mean in
any way that we shall be able to comprehend these elements in substantially less
21
time than the time required for operation of the machine, or even within any
given number of years or generations.
An intelligent understanding of [machines'] mode of performance may be
delayed until long after the task which
they have been set has been completed.
This means that though machines are
theoretically subject to human criticism,
such criticism may be ineffective until
long after it is relevant.
This situation, which is now upon us,
has two consequences: first that decisions are made on the basis of rules
and criteria no one knows explicitly,
and second that the system of rules
and criteria becomes immune to
change. This is so because, in the absence of detailed understanding of the
inner workings of a system, any substantial modification is very likely to
render the system altogether inoperable.
The threshold of complexity beyond
which this phenomenon occurs has a1reapy been crossed by many existing
systems, including some compiling and
computer operating systems. For example, no one likes the operating systems for certain large computers, but
they cannot be substantially changed
nor can they be done away with. Too
many people have become dependent
on them.
An awkward operating system is inconvenient. That is not too bad. But
the growing reliance on supersystems
that were perhaps designed to help people make analyses and decisions, but
which have since surpassed the understanding of their users while at the
same time becoming indispensable to
them, is another matter. In modern
war it is common for the soldier, say
the bomber pilot, to operate at an
enormous psychological distance from
his victims. He is not responsible for
burned children because he never sees
their village, his bombs, and certainly
not the flaming children themselves.
Modern technological rationalizations
of war, diplomacy, politics, and commerce such as computer games have
an even more insidious effect on the
making of policy. Not only have policy
makers abdicated their decision-making
responsibility to a technology they don't
understand, all the while maintaining
the illusion that they, the policy makers, are formulating policy questions
and answering them, but responsibility
has altogether evaporated. No human
is any longer responsible for "what the
machine says." Thus there can be
neither right nor wrong, no question
of justice, no theory with which one
22
can agree or disagree, and finally no
basis on which one can challenge
"what the machine says." My father
used to invoke the ultimate authority
by saying to me, "it is written." But
then I could read what was written,
imagine a human author, infer his
values, and finally agree or disagree.
The systems in the Pentagon, and their
counterparts elsewhere in our culture,
have in a very real sense no authors.
They therefore do not admit of exercises of imagination that may ultimately lead to human judgment. No wonder
that men who live day in and out with
such machines and become depe"ndent
on them begin to believe that men are
merely machines. They are reflecting
what they themselves have become.
The potentially tragic impact on society that may ensue from the use of
systems such as I have just discussed
is greater than might at first be imagined. Again it is side effects, not direct
effects, that matter most. First, of
course, there is the psychological impact on individuals living in a society
in which anonymous, hence irresponsible, forces formulate the large questions of the day and circumscribe the
range of possible answers. It cannot be
surprising that large numbers of perceptive individuals living" in such a
society experience a kind of impotence
and fall victim to the mindless rage
that often accompanies such experiences. But even worse, since computerbased knowledge systems become essentially unmodifiable except in that
they can grow, and since they induce
dependence and cannot, after a certain
threshold is crossed, be abandoned,
there is an enormous risk that they will
be passed from one generation to another, always growing. Man too passes
knowledge from one generation to another. But because man is mortal, his
transmission of knowledge over the
generations is at once a process of filtering and accrual. Man doesn't merely
pass knowledge, he rather regenerates
it continuously. Much as we may
mourn the crumbling of andent civilizations, we know nevertheless that the
glory of man resides as much in the
evolution of his cultures as in that 'Of
his brain. The unwise use of ever
larger and ever more complex computer systems may well bring this process to a halt. It could well replace the
ebb and flaw 'Of culture with a world
without values, a world in which what
counts for a fact has long ago been
determined and forever fixed.
Positive Effects
I've spoken of some potentially dangerous effects of present computing
trends. Is there nothing positive to be
said? Yes, but it must be said with
caution. Again, side effects are more
important than direct effects. In particular, the idea of computation and
of programming languages is beginning
to become an important metaphor
which, in the long run, may well prove
to be responsible for paradigm shifts
in many fields. Most of the commonsense paradigms in terms 'Of which
much of mankind interprets the phenomena of the everyday world, both
physical and social, are still deeply
rooted in fundamentally mechanistic
metaphors. Marx's dynamics as well as
those of Freud are, for example,
basically equilibrium systems. Any hydrodynamicist could come to understand them without leavi!lg the jargon
of his field. Languages capable "of desaibing ongoing processes, particularly
in terms of modular subprocesses, have
already had an enormous effect on the
way computer people think of every
aspect of their worlds, not merely those
directly related to their work. The information..,processing view of the world
so engendered qualifies as a genuine
metaphor. This is attested to by the
fact that it (i) constitutes an intellectual
framework that permits new questions to
be asked about a wide-ranging set of phenomena, and (ii) that it itself provides
criteria for the adequacy of proffered
answers. A new metaphor is important
not in that it may be better than existing
ones, but rather in that ,it may enlarge
man's vision by giving him yet another
perspective on his world. Indeed, the
very effectiveness of a flew metaphor
may seduce lazy minds to adopt it as
a basis for universal explanations and
as a source of panaceas. Computer
simulation of social processes has already been advanced by single-minded
generalists as leading to general solutions of all of mankind's problems.
The metaphors given us by religion,
the poets, and by thinkers like Darwin,
Newton, Freud, and Einstein have
rather quickly penetrated to the language of ordinary people. These metaphors have thus been instrumental in
shaping our entire civilization's imaginative reconstruction of our world.
The computing metaphor is as yet
available to only an extremely small
set of people. Its acquisition and internalization, hopefully as only one of
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for July, 1972
many ways to see the world, seems to
require experience in program composition, a kind of comput.ing literacy.
Perhaps such literacy will become very
widespread in the advanced .societal
sectors of the advanced countries. But,
should it become a dominant mode of
thinking and be restricted to certain
social classes, it will prove not merely
repressive in the ordinary sense, but
an enormously divisive societal force.
For then classes which do and do not
have access to the metaphor will, in
an important sense, lose their ability to
communicate with one another. We
know already how difficult it is for the
poor and the oppressed to communicate with the rest of the society in
which they are embedded. We know how
difficult it is for the worl.d of science to
communicate with that of the arts and
of the humanities. In both instances
the ,communication difficulties, which
have grave consequences, are very
largely due to the fact that the respective communities have un sharable experiences out of which unsharable
metaphors have grown.
Responsibility
Given these dismal possibilities, what
is the responsibility of the computer
scientist? First I should say that most
of the harm computers can potentially
entrain is much more a function of
properties people attribute to computers
than of what a computer can or cannot
actually be made to do. The nonprofessional has little choice but to make
his attributions of properties to computers on the basis of the propaganda
emanating from the computer community and amplified by the press. The
computer professional therefore has an
enormously important· responsibility to
be modest in his claims. This advice
would not even have to be voiced if
computer science had a tradition of
scholarship and of self-criticism such
as that which characterizes the established scien"ces. The mature scientist
stands in aWe before the depth of his
subject matter. His very humility is
the wellspring of his strength. I regard
the instilling.of just this kind of hum il-
COMPUTERS ·and AUTOMATION for July, 1972
ity, chiefly by the example set by teachers, to be one of the most important
missions of every university. department
of computer science.
The computer scientist must be aware
constantly that his instruments are capable of having gigantic direct and indirect amplifying effects. An error in
a progmm, for example, could have
grievous direct results, including most
certainly the loss of much human life.
On 11 September 1971, to cite just
one example, a computer programming
error caused the simultaneous destruction of 117 high-altitude weather balloons whose instruments were being
monitored by an earth satellite (9). A
similar error in a military command
and control system could launch a
fleet of nuclear tipped missiles. Only
censorship prevents us from knowing
how many such events involving nonnuclear weapons have already occurred. Clearly then, the computer scientist has a heavy responsibility to
make the fallibility and limitations of
the systems he is capable of designing
brilliantly clear. The very power of his
systems should s~rve to inhibit the
advice he is ready to give and to constrain the range of work he is willing
to undertake.
Of course, the computer scientist,
like everyone else, is responsible for
his actions and their consequences.
Sometimes that responsibility is hard to
accept because the corresponding authority to decide ,what is and what is
not to be done appears to rest with
distant and anonymous forces. That
te,chnology itself determines what is to
be done by a process of extrapolation
and that individuals are powerless to
intervene in that determination is precisely the kind of self~fulfiUing dream
from which we must awaken.
Consider gigantic computer systems.
They are, of course, natural extrapolations of the large systems we already
have. Computer nebworks are another
point on the same curve extrapolated
once more. One may ask whether such
systems can be used by anybody except
by governments and very large corporations and whether such organizations
will not use them mainly for antihuman
purposes. Or consider speech reco gn i-
tion systems. Will they not be used primarily to spy on private communioations? To answer such questions by
saying that big computer systems, com.puter networks, and speech recognition
systems are inevitable is to surrender
one's ihumani~. For such ,an ,answer
must be based either on one's profound
conviction that society has already lost
control over its technology or on the
thoroughly immoral position that "if I
don't do it, ~orileone else will."
I don't say that systems such as I
have mentioned are necessarily evilonly that they may be and, what is
most important, that their inevitability
cannot be. accepted by individuals
claiming autonomy, freedom, and dignity. The individual computer scientist
can and must deoide. The determination of what the impact of computers
on society is to be is, at least in part,
in his hands.
Finally, the fundamental question the
computer scientist must ask himself is
the one that every scientist, indeed
every human, must ask. It is not "what
shall I do?" but rather "what shall I
beT' I cannot answer that for anyone
save myself. But I will say again that
if technology is a nightmare that appears to have its own inevitable logic,
it is our nightmare. It is possible, given
courage and insight, for man to deny
technology the prerogative to formulate
man's questions. It is possible to ask
human questions and to find humane
answers.
0
References and Notes
1. B. F. Skinner, Beyond Freedom IUtd Dignity
(Knopf, New York, 1971).
2. K. M. Colby, S. Weber, F. D. Hilf, Arti/.
In tell. 1, 1 (1971).
3. N. Chomsky, Aspects 0/ the Theory 0/ Syntax (M.LT. Press, Cambridge, Mass., 1965);
- - and M. Halle, The Sound Pattern 01
English (Harper & Row, New York, 1968).
4. L. Mumford, The Pentagon 01 Power (Harcourt, Brace, Jovanovich, New York, 1970).
5. H. A. Simon, The Sciences 0/ the Artificial
(M.LT. Press, Cambridge, Mass., 1969), pp.
22-25.
6. B. Buchanan, G. Sutherland, E. A. Feigenbaum, in Machine Intelligence, B. Meltzer,
Ed. (American Elsevier, New York, 1969).
7. W. A. Martin and R. J. Fateman, "The
Macsyma system," in Proceedings 0/ the 2nd
Symposium on Symbolic and Algebraic
Manipulation
(Association for Computer
Machines, New York, 1971); J. Moses,
COm11l1m. Assoc. Computer Mach. 14 (No.
8), 548 (1971).
8. N. Wiener, Science 131, 1355 (1960).
9. R. Gillette, ibid. 174, 477 (1971).
23
BARRIERS IN APPLYING COMPUTERS
Edmund C. Berkeley
Editor, Computers and Automation
"The neglect of important barriers in applying computers has .caused a probable loss of
at least 10% and perhaps as much as 30% of all the money that has been spent on seeking
to apply automatic computers. "
Outline
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
The Newness of Computers
2100 Applications to Date
Barrier: Insufficient Speed
Barrier: Insufficient Capacity
Barrier: Organizing Sensory Data Into Objects
Barrier: Understanding Words and Sentences
Barrier: Deriving Meanings from Objects
Barrier: Putting Together Information from
Many Sources
9. Barrier: Automatically Correcting Wrong
Instructions
10. A Convincing Example of When Not To Use a
Computer
11. Conclusions
One of the questions that all computer people
either think about or are asked about, or both, is
this one:
Will computers eventually perform every activi ty
in problem solving and handling information? or
are there definite barriers or limits? and if so,
what are they? and how permanent are they?
1. The Newness of Computers
ated with numbers of 23 decimal digits, performed
3 additions per second, and could hold in erasable
storage 72 such numbers at one time. In contrast,
recent powerful automatic digi tal computers may hold
numbers of 9 decimal digits, may perform more than
a million addi tions per second, and may hold in erasable storage over 200 thousand numbers. Such computers represent a revolutionary change in society' s
capacity to handle information automatically.
2. 2100 Applications To Date
In 1944 the Harvard IBM Automatic Sequence Controlled Calculator was devoted almost entirely to
one application: computing a numerical table of the
values of Bessel functions. Its output constituted
page after page of the Annals of the Harvard Computation Laboratory.
From 1960 to 197i a list of known applications
of computers has been published each year in "The
Computer Directory and Buyers Guide" annual issue
of "Computers and Automation". In the 1960 issue
the number of listed applications was a little over
300; in 1971, the number of listed applications was
over 2100.
Computers have been functioning for less than 30
years. The first automatic digital computer began
operating in 1944. It was called the Harvard IBM
Automatic Sequence Controlled Calculator; it oper-
In the 1971 listing, there are four main categories: (1) "Business and Manufacturing in General",
wi th two main divisions, "Office" and "Plant and
Production"; (2) "Business, Specific Fields", with
24 categories from "Advertising" to "Transportation"
and a 25th one "Miscellaneous"; (3) "Science and Engineering" with 26 categories from "Aeronautics and
Space Engineering" to "Statistics"; and finally (4)
"Humanities" with the categories and applications
shown in Table 1.
(This article is based on an article by Edmund C.
Berkeley, contributed to the Kodansha Encyclopedia,
Tokyo, Japan)
There thus exists an actual inventory of noticed
applications of computers which has continued from
year to year; and it provides a useful historical
record of the remarkable increases in the applications of computers.
To try to answer these questions completely and
finally now in 1972 is hardly reasonable, because
human experience with computers is still brief; but
it is worthwhile examining the questions.
24
COMPUTERS AND AUTOMATION for July, 1972
Table 1
APPLICATIONS OF COMPUTERS
IN THE AREA OF HUMANITIES
(Source: Computer Directory and
Buyers' Guide, 1971, p. 23)
1. Anthropology
Cords and string: analysis
Content analysis for cross-cultural values study
o
2. Archeology
American Indians, prehistoric cultures: analysis
and cataloging
Archeological data: information retrieval and
analysis
Artifacts found at sites: analysis, classific_a t ion, recons truct i ng
Museum accession records: information retrieval
and analysis
Pottery, Egyptian: cataloging, classification,
storage and retrieval
Pottery shards found at sites: analysis, classification, reconstruction
Stones found at sites:: determination whether of
natural or human origin based on analysis of
angles and other characteristics
3. Art
Designs by computer
Graphic representation by computer
Paintings by computer: inks, oils, water colors
Pictures by computer
Sevres porcelain: cataloging, classification,
forgery detection
Three-dimensional art, generation of
4. Games of Skill
Bridge, bidding: championship play
Chess: excellent play
Gomoku: excellent play
Instant Insanity: excellent play
Kalah: excellent play
Nim: perfect play
Quad: excellent play
Tit-tat-toe: perfect play
5. Genealogy
Cataloging
Data analysis
Research
Surnames: storage and retrieval
6. Geography
Map production
Record matching
Spatial pattern analysis
Theory testing
7. History
Census records - ecological implications::
analysis, summaries
Congressional voting records - social implications: analysis, summaries
Court records and decisions - impl:ications:
analysis, summaries
Diplomatic records - implications re prevailing attitudes~ analysis. summaries
Election statistics - implications: anal'ysis,
forecas ting results" summaries
Ship sailing records - historical and: eC'onomic'
implications: analysis, summaries
8. Language
Ambiguity determinations
Dead languages: deciphering, transla'ting
Human voice~ analysis, simulation
COMPUTERS AND' AUTOMATION for July; 1972
Language analysis
Navaj 0 dictionary: compilation
Syntax pattern analysis
Translation from one language to another
Verification of translations
Vocabulary trends: analysis
Word classification: analysis, summaries
Word frequency counts: analysis
9. Literature
Author determination via key function words
Author determination via style analysis
Automatic abstracting
Biblical research
Bibliography construction
Concordance construction
Index construction
Poetry style: analysis
Proofreading
"Quik-index" by keyword of ti tIes in context
10. Music
Composition
Composition features such as range, phrases,
patterns, refrains, cadences, etc.: analysis,
simUlation, synthesis
Harmonies:: analysis
Musical information: analysis, retrieval, storage
Music prin ting
Pitch for singers~ instruction
Simula tion and models
Sounds: analysis, synthesis
Statistical analysis of style
Stereophonic music: play
In fact, there is no doubt that digltal computers
can be applied in every fieldof science and knowledge
in Which, observa tions are made and records are kept
and correlated, or where m:lthematics, logic, statistics, classification, and other methOds of precise
reasonin~ may be applied.
But it is not now demonstrable that computers
will eventually apply to every activity in recognition of problems, solVing problems and handling information. The barriers and limits t~ the applications- of computers are serious and are likely to
continue for many years. Som~ of the barriers will
now be pointed out.
3;, Barrier: Insufficii:mt· Speed
Although; the speed of a modern powerful computer
is over a minion Cl06} calculating operations a
second, there are probl'ems of such magnitude that
even this speed will not sol've them.
One' example is looking ahead: in the game of chess,
to foresee the consequences of a move. In order to
determine all the consequences of a: move at the start
of a chess game,: it has been calculated tha t even if
a computer could' perform a trillion ( 0 12 ) calculating operations per second, mbrethan 10 bill ion ClaW)
years of computation would be required (the expected
future life time of the sun and planets) and even
the~ only a very small part of the calculations necessary would have been' made.
Another example is' the calculation of an accurate
forecast eveW for 24 hDurs ahead. This also
would require so many calculating operations that
they could, not be completed' until after the forecasted' weather had arrived; so, to deal with this
problem, practical approximations are needed, and
in: fact are' being! worked out and' used.
weathe~
The !'imitation: (r'om speed' makes it necessary to
modtfy compu fer programs>,: changing them from accurate
(please turn to page 28)
25
PICTORIAL REASONING TESTS-Part 6
NUMBLES
Neil Macdonald
Assistant Editor, Computers and Automation
Neil Macdonald
Assistant Editor
Computers and Automation
"There undoubtedly is a place for non-verbal, nonmathematical testing which is not culture-limited,
not occupation-limited, and not background-limited
... and which would enable finding and employing
many useful people -- including programmers -- who
do not have American, middle-class backgrounds."
A "numble" is an arithmetical problem in which: digits
have been replaced by capital letters; and there are two
messages, one which can be read right away and a second
one in the digit cipher. The problem is to solve for the
digits.
Each capital letter in the arithmetical problem stands for
just one digit 0 to 9. A digit may be represented by more
than one letter. The second message, which is expressed in
numerical digits, is to be translated (using the same key)
into letters so that it may be read; but the spelling uses
puns or is otherwise irregular, to discourage cryptanalytic
methods of deciphering.
We invite our readers to send us solutions, together with
human programs or computer prOgrams which will produce
the solutions. This month's Numble was contributed by:
Andrew M. Langer, Newton High School, Newton, Mass.
The pictorial reasoning tests which we have been
publishing since October, 1971, require observation,
perception, comparison, recognition of shapes and
designs, and reasoning. These operations are difficult for a computer program (except for the reasoning), yet stimulating to a human being. The
techniques needed are those which we as human beings
have had to use (and improve) all our lives -- and
it is fun to do something you're good at! The readers of "Computers and Automati on" are a group of
alert and intelligent people -- so far as we can
tell -- and they seem to like contributing to the
explorations we are making through these pictorial
reasoning tests.
NUMBLE 727
Prior articles on Pictorial Reasoning Tests (PRTs)
in "Computers and Automation" are:
THE
x HAS T Y
SOT 0
o
A L U Y
V HH
R N V I
THE
U LTV
H S HOP HYO
LEA P S
UVT HS E
x 0 V E R
E Y S
Aptitudes of People -- I /
Aptitudes of People -- II /
Aptitudes of People
Analysis and Answers /
Part 5 / Test 6
In case any reader has missed these articles, we can
supply back copies at moderate cost.
E E VI
+
Oct. 1971 / PRTs and
Test 1
Dec. 1971 / PRTs and
Test 1 (repeated)
Feb. 1972 / PRTs and
III / Tests 2, 3
March 1972 / PRTs -Tests 4, 5
Apri 1 1972 / PRTs --
= E 0 E I ETTEA= EOEI
4216
0069
8752
E T TEA
8231
Solution to Numble 726
In Numble 726 in the June issue, the digits 0 through
9 are represented by letters as follows:
U
o
M
5
H
6
2
G,F
7
N
3
T
8
S,R
4
o
9
E
The message is:
The night is the mother of thoughts.
Our thanks to the following individuals for submitting
their solutions - to Numble 725: D. F. Martin, Los Angeles, Calif.; and David P. Zerbe, Reading, Pa.
ADVANCED NUMBLES - Our thanks to Dr. Mitchell
Snyder, Ramat-Gan, Israel for submitting his solutions to
New Styles of Test
In this issue we publish a sample of a new style
of test, Style 4: the fi rst three frames di splay
three samples of a property; the question for each
of the next seven frames is "Is the same property
shown?"
Answers
The answers and comments that you, our readers,
send us are very useful and gi ve us much data to work
from and think about. Our warm thanks to all of you.
It is not easy to respond to individual persons who
ask to know "the answers". But we have decided to
publish eventually the answers to all of our tests.
The "correct;' answers to C&A Reasoning Test No. 1
(which was print~d in October 1971 and again in December 1971) were printed in the March 1972 iSsue.
In many cases, it is impossible to prove that a certain answer is correct; accordingly, what we publish
are so-called correct answers, denoted using quotation marks, as "correct" answers.
"The figures have been drawn freehand and not too
carefully. It is a myth that all figures sho.uld
be drawn professionally; one can do a great deal
with an author's freehand, approximate drawings,
and the reader's eyes to interpret them; and such
drawings make the gap between the author and the
reader less formidable."
Advanced Numble Nos. 72031 and 72032.
26
o
COMPUTERS AND AUTOMATION for July, 1972
r.I
IJ
PICTORIAL REASONING TEST:
1. The following is a test to see
how carefully you can observe and
reason. It is not timed.
2. In each item the first three pictures A, B, and C are samples that express a certain property of objects or
sets of objects. For each of the remaining seven pictures (0 to J), consider the question "Does the picture
express the same property?" Then
write the code for your choice of answer in the cell provided. The
codes are: V for "yes"; X for" no"; P for" logica lly, perhaps yes.
perhaps no"; N for" not applicable".
I
" Correct
l' I U %
2.
3
-
IVVVV
~
G
I/;
1:. ---X
A
C
*"
8
.
+
ZJ
0
0
0
•
0
(' E ~
B § ~
~g
~
10
~
m0
~
+
•
7
0
IV\...IVl.J
®
--
1/
~
C£>
8
g
@J
-00
~
~e)
0
~
lSJ
0
~
IVt/
r
G
F
;."""'-
g;
*I
DO
~
~I"I'I'''
00
*
+
%
/
ODOO ........
0 §
0
• tl
.+
.0-
~
*
~
0
~
IJ
q
.
1 ill
S
E1
B
0
~
GC)
&
W & J)
A
---l
0
J1
®B
.()XIO
§
()X)
?j
/'
~ @]
e.
/
8
~
9
0
E9
#
0
X X =F err
0
0
~
~
c:;:::::;:::::J
W
P
N
V
X
B
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In each cell,
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insert the
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Survey Data: 1. Name
2. Ti tle_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __
3. Organization_____________________________________________________________________________________
4. Address
Other (l2lease sl2 ecif y)
Average?
Good?
Excellent? Not your field?
5. In comp uter programming, are you:
6. In syst ems analysis, are you:
7. In mana ging, are you:
8. What fields (not mentIoned above) are you faIrly good In (or even expert In)?~~-----------------------9. What other capacities do you have? (Please don't be bashful -- but be objective) ________________________
10. Any remarks?________________________________________________________________~--~------~----~~
(attach p;)I)(!r if needed)
When completed, please send to: Neil Macdonald, Survey Editor, Computers and Automation, 815 Washington St., Newtonville, MA 02160
COMPUTERS AND AUTOMATION for July, 1972
27
Berkeley - continued from page 25
to approximate, so that the solution will be obtained
in the time needed in order for the solution to be
useful. The computer of course permits much more
extensive and elaborate approximations than unaided
human beings can use - but the approximations are
still approximate.
4. Barrier: Insufficient Capacity
The capacity of a computer to hold a quantity of
information is also limited.
A computer may hold in its most rapidly accessed
store or memory 256,000 items of information, each
of 36 bits (where a bit is a yes or no, a report
true or false, a one or a zero, etc.). This amount
is approximately equal to 107 bits. Let's compare
this with an ordinary collegiate dictionary. Data:
1000 pages of text; 2 columns per page; each column,
about 100 lines; each line, about 11 words; each word,
about 5.5 characters; and each character, 7 bits.
Multiplying out, we find that this one book contains
approximately 108 bits, ten times as much data. The
Library of Congress in Washington, D.C., probably
contains about 10 16 bits of information.
Capacity therefore is another limitation which
restricts the application of computers.
5. Barrier: Organizing Sensory Data
into Objects, etc.
Another barrier is that no computer can rapidly
perceive, observe, recognize, organize, and synthesize many facets or aspects of a situation or environment, thus converting sensations into recognized
objects or things, such as a traffic light or a rose
perfume. In order to notice the operation of converting sensations into recognized objects, try this
experiment on some of your friends: Part 1: Take 20
small objects that commonly occur in a household or
office, such as a pin, a nail, a thumbtack, a button,
an eraser, etc., and place them separately on a tray
under a cover. Then uncover the tray in front of
some friends, and allow them to look for just one
minute. Then cover the tray and ask them to make
a list from memory of the objects which they have
just seen. Most people will list between 14 and 18
of the 20 objects. Part 2: Then take 20 small metal
stampings produced by a stamping machine, such as a
washer, a clip, a fastening, a rivet, a glider, a
pr()ng, etc. Display them for just one minute. Then
ask your friends to make a list from memory of what
they have seen. Most people will list (or draw pictures of) 3 to 5 of the 20 obj ec ts.
In other words, what we see depends enormously on
what is in our minds already in the form of knowledge
or experience - stored recognizable concepts.
The same sort of barrier applies to sounds, s.mells,
tastes, feelings, etc. How does one know which smell
is the smell of rose? How does a good telephone operator at a company swi tchboard, in less than a quarter of a second, recognize the voice of each of the
company's 500 employees who, when making acall, talk
to her? In the absence of knowing clearly how the
process works with human beings, it is hard to imagine how we might program a computer to perform it.
6. Barrier: Understanding Words
and Sentences
Another major "barrier is that a computer cannot
quickly understand the meaning of spoken or written
words and symbols, so that ideas may be acquired and
communicated.
28
Every normal human child learns to understand
spoken words and to use them himself, first singly,
then in groups of two or three, and finally in long
sentences; and he learns this behavior before he is
four or five years old. The vocabulary of a fiveyear old child is regularly more than 5000 words. It
makes no difference what language he may be immersed
in - and there are approximately 1700 spoken languages on earth. Often the child will learn more
than one language. 1I0w this learned behavior occurs
with human beings is a great mystery. In spite of
much study, only small corners of the curtain concealing the process have been lifted. It is clear
that a loving family to teach the child, and an environment presenting common objects and common situations, are very desirable factors for learning and
may even be necessary. But the process using inherited capacity and environmental experience by which
human beings learn a language with which to communicate seems to be barred to a computer. So it is hard
to imagine how a computer could be programmed to
learn a language and use it intelligently to express
ideas.
When the words are written down in characters and
the characters are presented to a computer, it is of
course possible to teach the computer to respond to
the meaning of some of the characters or character
sets. Thus the character "5" or even the string of
characters "five" can be interpreted by a computer
so that it will perform a specified operation five
times. However, deciding upon meanings in a context
of free vocabulary and free sentences may be beyond
the power of any computer program of the present day,
though ten years from now, it may not be.
7. Barrier: Deriving Meanings
from Objects
The purpose of an animal in recognizing objects
in the environment is to classify them relative to
the goals or purposes of the animal. Some objects
are food to be sought; some objects are danger to
be avoided; some Objects are shelter in which to
rest or sleep; etc.
A higher animal, such as most mammals, is not
usually born with the capacity to identify appropriately all the objects in its environment. It has
to learn. Sometimes it is taught by its mother and
father, sometimes by older animals, sometimes by experience, sometimes by observing what other members
of its species do, etc. An inexperienced dog learns
the hard way abou t porcupines - by get ti ng pa infully
pricking quills in its nose. But the dog learns, or
it dies.
A computer however does not move, but sits still
in a room. It has no perceptors to perceive its environment. It has no instinct to survive. Its food
is electricity and maintenance service. Its shelter
is the computer room. It is presumably never in a
danger to which it must react, to stay "alive". And
accordingly all the meanings of the objects it deals
wi th - the numbers, data, and programs that it deals
with - are rather irrelevant to it, for it is just
a manipulator of ones and zeroes, yeses and noes,
binary digi ts, in extraordinarily intricate pa tterns.
Whatever meanings the computer deals wi th. at present
must be bottle-fed to it by the human programmer.
8. Barrier: Putting Together
Information from Many Sources
Animals, including human beings, have a capacity
to put together information from many sources, and
thus "understand" a situation.
COMPUTERS AND AUTOMATION for July, 1972
Q
o
Once, in June, 1964, I watched a squirrel raid a
bird feeder. The experience was so impressive I have
never forgotten it. The bird feeder was an inverted
glass cylinder, with a wide, sloping, conical lid to
keep out rain, and a round base trough, into which
sunflower seeds and other seeds fed slowly by gravi ty
through openings. The feeder was tied by a short
string to a pole; the pole rested in a forsythia
bush projecting about two feet beyond the bush. When
I first saw the squirrel, he was investigating and
eating some of the fallen sunflower seeds on the
ground below the bird feeder, and then he rose up
and tried to reach the bird feeder from the ground;
but it was too high for him, and he could not reach
it. A little later I saw him crawling out on the
pole towards the bird feeder. Then, holding on to
the pole with his right hind paw only, he lowered
himself slowly along the bird feeder, preventing it
from swinging out wi th his left hind paw. He stretched
his full length upside down towards the base of the
feeder, got his front paws on the seeds, and pr9ceeded
to eat all he wanted for about five minutes, remaining head downward. Finally, he drew himself back up
to the pole, and left along the pole through the bush.
I have often thought about that squirrel. He
could not have had instincts that dealt with bird
feeders: they are too recent. He did not have language, by means of which older and wiser squirrels
might have instructed him how to solve that kind of
problem. He did not have instructions from a human
programmer, as a computer faced with that problem
might have had. But that squirrel made a number of
deductions and traveled a long way around to solve
his sunflower seed problem: he had a good idea, and
I would say that the squirrel understood the si tuation!
The squirrel's idea however is not demonstrable
because I cannot look into the squirrel's mind,
and of course he cannot tell me anything about what
is in his mind, because we do not speak each other's
language. But the squirrel's "understanding" is demonstrable: he showed he was able to perceive relevant features of the situation, adapt means to ends,
and fulfill his goal.
A computer has capacity to put together information from many sources, and behave "sensibly" about
the information, but only if programmed, never by
itself, never independently.
9. Barrier: Automatically Correcting
Wrong Instructions
A human being usually has the capacity not to do
something which is obviously stupid. For example,
if you tell a boy "mow the lawn", and the lawn contains a small flower bed, the boy usually will not
mow the flower bed but leave the flowers standing,
even if you did not mention the flower bed to him.
In other words, a human being (unlike a computer)
is likely to do what you mean and nqt what you say,
when the words of your instructions contain small
mistakes. But the computer will not. The computer
will do what you say, regardless of what you mean.
The computer is thus an "idiot savant" which, doing
just what you say, will do the wrong thing a million
times a second.
The day may eventually come when a computer
will be able to apply "common sense" and "j udgment"
- and correct "wrong" instructions. The capacity
is not magic, and derives from good, well-debugged
supervisory programs. But this capacity regularly
provided is probably some time in the future. No
software house seems yet to be advertising software
with "common sense".
COMPUTERS AND AUTOMATION for July, 1972
10. A Convincing Example of
When Not to Use a Computer
On one occasion I visited the central office of a
large paper company in New York. This office had to
produce weekly and monthly summary reports for some
200 produc ts produced by 29 pI an ts here and there all
over the United States and Canada. At one time, they
had had a punch card ins tallation wi th some 8 machines
and 7 people for the purpose, and they found they
could not obtain their summaries quickly and correctly. That installation was gone. They now used
an ordinary table, some perforated forms, and an arrangement of pins. The forms listed all possible
products in the same sequence for every plant; zero
would apply if some product was not produced at a
plant; and for each reporting period the completed
forms giving the production figures were mailed in
from allover the country. As soon as the 29th report was in, the forms were aligned by the pins on
the table, and a clerk would go across each row on
the forms, picking up the figures for a particular
product, adding them with an adding machine, and
entering the total on a 30th form. Then another
clerk would check the adding machine tape and the
entry. Thus the office avoided the entire input,
output, sorting, and collating of punch card operations. They handled each figure only twice, once
for adding and once for checking. Here is a fine
example of a simple, direct, fast, efficient method
avoiding both computer and punch card machines.
In almost every case where a figure is going to
be added only once, it makes no sense to put it into
some input device, add it inside a computer, and then
take it out through some output device. It is better
to use some other process.
Basically there is always the same flaw in poor
or wasteful applications of computers, and in application failures where computers are subsequently
thrown ou t.
This flaw is the failure of a group of human beings to understand:
- What computers are good for, and what they
aren't good for at all;
- The ironclad necessity for correct programming,
covering all the possible cases, more than most
clerks encounter in 10 years of working at a
clerical job;
- The need for sensible trials on a small scale
before operating on a large scale;
- The importance of investigating improvements
in methods that do not use computers.
11. Conclusions
Al though computers are powerful and even marvelous
machines, they have limitations, and they cannot be
applied indiscriminately.
It is necessary to think about their input, output, storage, speed, programming, etc., and particularly how a computer will mesh with other requirements of the system in which it is to be used.
The neglect of important barriers in applying
computers has caused a probable~ loss of at least
10% and perhaps as much as 30% of all the money
that has been spent on seeking to apply automatic
computers.
0
29
The Neglect of Significant Subjects, and the Information Engineer
by Peter J. Nyikos and
Edmund C. Berkeley
"It is far more realistic to consider the silence '"
as part of the unfathomable mystery
of what the media (and by inference, the public) consider newsworthy. "
1. Introductory Note
Edmund C. Berkeley, Editor
Computers and Automation
It has been a long time since "Computers and
Automation" has received a communication from a
reader which to us has seemed as important and significant as the letter we have received from Peter
J. Nyikos published below.
I think that Mr. Nyikos has put his finger on a
most important issue:
1. Many subjects that are significant and
important for human society receive
almost no attention, discussion, or
reporting.
2. Conservatives, liberals, newspapers, magazines, socialists, capitalists, alike -even persons who want to call themselves
information engineers, -- devote almost
no attention or discussion to these subjects.
3. The problem, he says, cuts across all conceivable ideological lines. It does.
2. "Why No Wide Publication?" - Comment
Peter J. Nyikos
Management Information Systems Directorate
Edgewood Arsenal, Md. -21010
Your brief comment "Why no Wide Publication?" on
page 33 of the May issue touched off a flurry of
ideas. I hope you find them in keeping with your
remarks on input and output of data systems in a
broad sense on page 28.
"Why is information about atrocities of these
kinds not widely published and distributed throughout the newspapers and media of the United States?
So that Americans with a sense of common decency
can roar their protests?
"There seem to be :two answers: One is the cooperation of the American press with the American es30
tablishment. The other is the
to be as concerned about Asian
can cancer victims as they are
ed American soldiers. This is
failure of Americans
civilians and Americoncerned about drafta moral failure."]
[May issue, p. 28: See policy statement entitled
"Unsettling, Disturbing, Cri tical", reprinted in this
issue -- see Table of Contents.]
The first answer to your question is "the cooperation of the American press with the American Establi shment ." In vi ew of, say, Agnew's complai nts about
the press and TV, or the repeated denunciations of
U.S. Vietnamese policy in the New York Times and the
WaShington Post (to name only two important publications), or the wide coverage given to "antiwar" (more
about this moniker in a minute) protests and the
views of McGovern and other Democratic and Republican "antiwar" candidates -- in view of these and
like phenomena, I don't think "cooperation" is the
lead to pursue. I think it is far more realistic to
consider the silence you speak of as part of the unfathomable mystery of what the media (and, by inference, the public) consider newsworthy.
This problem cuts across all conceivable ideological lines. Not only U.S. atrocities but also those
of the VC, NVA, and the ARVN, are largely ignored.
Wars and uprisings in Yemen, Sudan, and Angola, and
goodness knows where else, seldom make the pages of
newspapers or news magazines. If I want to find out
what is going on in these places, as well as in such
formerly and potentially (and, for all I know, presently) explosive areas as Tibet, Cuba, Venezuela,
Panama, Brazil, Burma, Iraq, Cyprus, Nigeria, the
Congo (or whatever it is called ~oday), Indonesia,
Southern Rhodesia, etc., I have little recourse but
to wait for the next yearbook of the Encyclopedia
Britannica or some similar end-of-the-year publication.
Nor are international affairs the only area in
which these deficiencies exist. The bulk of coverage of medical research, science,and religion seems
to be devoted to endless articles on heart transplants, the hazards of smoking, cyclamates, and
other food additives, space "spectaculars" (not including weather and communications satellites, let
COMPUTERS AND AUTOMATION for July, 1972
alone those for reconnaissance), defections from the
priesthood, and loosenings, real or imaginary, of
long-standing religious rules.
There is some slight hope in that some subjects
which were once hardly mentioned have finally attained the status of "good copy": pollution, conservation of natural resources, battered children,
unsafe automobiles. But, whether it is from the
media misreading public interests, or some fault at
the bottom of American society itself, we have a
long way to go.
o
As you suggest, there is a "failure of Americans
to be as concerned about Asian civilians ... as they
are concerned about drafted American soldiers." This
is true of most liberals as well as conservatives.
For ~xample, last month I heard a liberal commentator on a national TV news program say smilingly that
he did not give a hoot about what happened to the
Vietnamese, it was Americans he was concerned about
- and calling his conservative counterpart a "bleeding heart" for his concern for the South Vietnamese.
There is ethnocentrism in the very terminology
applied to this war. Protesters against American
involvement in the Vietnam war have been labeled
"antiwar" protesters from the very beginning. Yet
from public statements it should have been clear that
the only facet of the war that most "doves" objected
to was U.S. participation therein. Then, too, almost
no one on either the Left or the Right objected to
Nixon's equating withdrawal of American troops with
"winding down the war" and "bringing the war to an
end". All of this betrays a deep-rooted insularity.
As for solutions, I of course have none. One
small step in the right direction, though, might be
to run a regular column in your magazine listing
"neglected subjects." If there is enough reader
interest, the names of the subjects alone should
take up quite a bit of space.
3. Escaping Limitations in Thinking and Perceiving
Edmund C. Berkeley, Editor
Computers and Automation
Ever since I was a child loaded with curiosity
and a student asking questions that my teachers
could not (or would not) answer, I have been wondering about limitations in thinking, knowing, and perceiving. Over and over again I would say to my parents, "Why shouldn't I?" Father often gave me good
answers. Mother usually gave me the answer, "Wha t
would people think if ... It; that never satisfied
me but made me rebellious. I remember Mr. William
Francis who taught me college algebra at Phillips
Exeter Academy explaining synthetic division to the
class; I held up my hand and asked "Sir, if that is
synethic division, what would synthetic multiplication be?" He said "That's a good question. Work
it out, and bring it in to class tomorrow." (And I
did. )
1. Doesn't evolution operate in thousands of situations, not only the evolution of living species? (Preliminary answer: - Yes, of course;
see, for example, the evolution of inventions,
the evolution of landscapes, the evolution of
a group of people waiting for a bus, etc.)
2. What are the limits to solving problems with
computers? (Preliminary answer: - See an
article in this issue "Barriers in Applying
Computers".)
COMPUTERS AND AUTOMATION for July, 1972
3. What are the most important ideas and concepts
in communication? (See an enormously interesting book, "Language and Communication", by
George A. Miller, published by McGraw-Hill
Book Co., New York, N.Y., 1951,298 pp.)
4. Does language prevent you from thinking certain ideas that you could think if you had
words more fitted to reality? (See a very
interesting book "Language, Thought, and Reality" by Benjamin Lee Whorf, jointly published by Technology Press, Mass. Inst. of
Techn., Cambridge, Mass., and John Wiley &
Sons, New York, N.Y., 19~6, 278 pp.)
How do we escape the "deep rooted insularity"
which Nyikos speaks of, and which almost all human
beings so clearly suffer from, so that we can find
the significant subjects?
Here are the steps that it seems to me can be
usefully taken
1. See, observe, notice the problem of relative
invisibility.
2. Maintain and publish a list of significant
subjects, as Nyikos suggests.
3. Look for news, books, and information on these
subj ects.
4. Prod various publishers (some of them are looking for material to publish) to publish on one
or more of these subjects.
5. Cultivate the discussion of these subjects
among one's friends, in letters to the editor,
etc.
6. If you can, persuade some prominent person to
talk about it - a national leader, a senator,
a presidential candidate (not quite as good),
a college president (not nearly as good), etc.
7. Never give up.
Take the subject of Boolean algebra, for example.
Starting in 1934, I used to talk about this subject
to friends of mine in actuarial work in the life insurance company home office where I used to work. I
even wrote a paper and got it published in 1937 in
an actuarial journal, "Boolean Algebra (The Technique for Manipulating AND, OR, NOT and Conditions)
and its Applications to Insurance". I knew if I did
not put the definition into the title nobody would
even be curiou~ enough to find out what I was talking aboutl For six years I talked. I used to describe my progress as "in six years I went from a
blank stare to a broad smile". But Boolean algebra
is a recognized subject now. It has "arrived"
in the design of computer circuits, in the new math,
etc.
Take the subject of unidentified flying objects
(UFOs) for example. To date there have been many
thousands of reports of visual observations, probably over 50 photographs, and probably over 1000
radar observations of unidentified flying objects.
Many of these reports have clearly been decorated
with misinformation, exaggeration, or lies by the
reporter. But many_ other reports certainly have not
been. One proffered explapation is extra-terrestrial visitors. But what have the establishments
done? Not one government, not one national scientific association, that I know of has acted in a scientific way about these reports. Instead, ridicule of
the reporters, and attempts to press psychological
(please turn to page 35)
31
The Shooting of Presidential Candidate George C. Wallace:
A Systems-Analysis Discussion
Thomas Stamm
2705 Bainbridge Ave.
Bronx, N. Y. 10458
and
Edmund C. Berkeley
Editor, Computers and Automation
o
"A systems analysis discussion of . .. the protection of presidential candidates against
violent attacks hinges on the study of two systems: the system of pursuit and attack
used by the assassination team or individuals; and the system of protection used
by the presidential candidate."
Outline
by Thomas Stamm
1. Questions
by Edmund C. Berkeley
2. The Number of Bullets, Guns, and Wounds
3. The Expenses of the Suspect
4. Cui Bono? (Who Profits?)
5. Gun Control
6. The Systematic Protection of Presidential
Candida~s
by Thomas Stamm:
1. Questions
The attempt to kill Governor Wallace in Laurel,
Maryland, on May 15, bristles with problems. Let
me indicate a few. According to the New York Times
accounts, the hand gun used by the would-be assas-sin had a capacity of five bullets. All were fired,
at virtually point-blank range, and frontally. Wai-·
lace and three other individuals were wounded.
Each of the three beside Wallace sustained single
wounds. But confusion surrounds the number suffered
by Wallace:
One bullet, the doctors said, passed through
the upper arm and another through the right
forearm. One or both of two wounds in the
chest are thought to have been possibly caused
by bullets that passed through the arm first.
Wounds in the right shoulder and left shoulder
blade [the times diagram identifies both shoulder blades] were superficial and evidently the
bullets causing them did not lOdge in the
body. A bullet is lodged against the first
lumbar vertebra, just below the ribs, and is
presumed to be the cause of the present paralysis inGovernorWallace'slegs (p. 28, col. 3).
32
Four days later, James T. Wooten, leading off
the Times "The Week In Review" with a piece on
Wallace, did not enumerate all of Wallace's wounds,
nor note any inaccuracy in the Times listing of
May 17, but referred to "two superficial wounds in
his back" and implied yet another wound with the
statement, "One bullet was removed from his abdominal cavity ... "
By the Times account of May 17 five bullets inflicted ten wounds on four individuals. It is possible, but is it so? If Wallace's abdominal wound
is added, the total number of wounds is eleven. And
if the back wounds are also added the total may rise
to thirteen, which strains credulity. Does the confusion resulting from these discrepant and ambiguous
statements derive from usual journalistic imprecision? or is it evidence of something more sinister,
hidden from view, and to be dug out?
What happened to the bullets? Two lodged in Wallace, none, apparently, in the other victims. One
bullet was removed from Wallace's abdominal cavity.
Another, at this writing, is soon to be removed from
his spinal canal. Where are the bullets'whichcaused
his arm, ches t, and superficial shoulder-blade wounds,
and/or the superficial back wounds? And the wounds
of the other victims? Were other bullets recovered?
Also, what should we make of the late discovery
by the local police of another hand gun in a wheel
well beneath the trunk of the would-be assassin's
car several days after the FBI and Secret Service,
according to the Times, virtually took the car apart
but, it seems, missed the weapon? Is it characteristic incompetence on the part of police agencies or
is evidence being manufactured? To what end? Can
the second gun have some bearing on the difficulty
of explaining how one gun fired five bullets into
four persons, causing ten or eleven or thirteen
wounds? Is there another explanation?
Wallace is a candidate for nomination by the
Democratic Party for President of the United States.
His attempted murder was a political act which has
had and will continue tohave political consequences.
What was the motive?
COMPUTERS AND AUTOMATION for July, 1972
I found no statement by the would-be assassin, or
by any official source. Only the usual irrelevant
comment by politicians, journalists, and psychiatrists on the climate of violence in the country
and the "senseles s" criminali ty of al iena ted, sexually incompetent loners. Has anyone come across
anything meaningful? Is the goverament of Nixon,
like the government of Johnson, unable to find motivation for political murder and attempted assassination? Or is it suppressing the motive?
3. The Expenses of the Suspect
According to an important summary report by Donald Kneeland, published in the New York Times,
May 22, Bremer stopped working at his last job in
Milwaukee on February 15. Then he did a lot of
traveling, which included a visit to Ottawa, a two
night stay in the Waldorf Astoria in New York, trips
to Michigan, Maryland, and other places. Then Kneeland writes:
How did the former bus boy and janitor, who
earned $3016 last year according to a Federal
income tax form found in his apartment, support himself during his unemployment, and manage to buy the guns, tape recorder, portable
radio with police band, binoculars, and other
equipment he was carrying, as well as finance
his travels?
by Edmund C. Berkeley:
2. The Number of Bullets, Guns, and Wounds
A "systems-analysis" discussion of the assassination attempt on Governor Wallace, and the protection
of presidential candidates against violent attacks
hinges on a study of two systems:
- The system of pursuit and attack used by the
assassination team or individuals; and
- The system of protection used by the presidential candidate.
The offense looks for a ~eak link in the protective
system. The defense looks for the maximum amount
of protection that can be found, constructed, or arranged. Neither system produces a probability of
100% success, but a very great deal can be done that
affects probabilities.
We will begin with a discussion of the number of
bullets, guns, and wounds.
The gun which the suspect, Arthur Herman Bremer,
used was a Charter Arms, .38-caliber, snub-nosed,
five-shot revolver, bought by Bremer for about $80,
on January 13, in Milwaukee.
"The New York Times" on May 17 showed in a diagram the locations of eight bullet wounds in Governor Wallace. One or two bullets lodged in him. In
addition, three other persons were wounded:
- Captain E. C. Dothard of the Alabama State
Highway Patrol (shot in the abdomen);
- U.S. Secret Service Agent Nicholas Zarvos,
second in command of the security detail
assigned to protect Governor Wallace;
(bullet lodged in left jaw);
- Wallace campaign worker Mrs. Dora Thompson
of Hyattsville, Md. (shot in the leg).
•
It seems to me rather remarkable that five shots
could produce 11 wounds; but there was a dense crowd
around the shooting.
There has been no report so far of the number of
bullets collected and where found. If there were 6
or more, then there would have to be more than one
person shooting.
Edward Walsh and Bob Woodward of the Washington
Post reported in a dispatch published on May 19:
Police in Prince George's County, Maryland,
yesterday found a 14-shot semi-automatic pistol often used as a military weapon in Bremer's car. The local police discovered the
9mm weapon after the FBI had thoroughly
searched Bremer's 1968 Rambler .... There
was no explanation of why the FBI, which
had searched Bremer's car Tuesday, failed
to discover the second weapon.
COMPUTERS AND AUTOMATION for July, 1972
Kneeland does not answer the question he raises.
But he does suggest that savings accumulated by
Bremer in an account with the Mitchell Street Savings Bank in Milwaukee might have provided the funds.
The bank refused to give information to the investigating news reporters.
Kneeland's report further says:
Agents of the Federal Bureau of Investigation,
who are also retracing that puzzling path [the
path of Bremer over the last year] have told
many potential sources not to talk to newsmen.
instructions by the FBI are illegal and have no
force of law. Furthermore, such instructions are
wrong in a democracy, because they prevent the public from knowing what the public has a right to know.
It is regrettable that many people take at face
value misinformation that they receive from FBI
agents.
Su~h
4. Cui Bono? (Who Profits?)
In any contest where there are many candidates,
the elimination of anyone candidate favors all the
others.
In a presidential contest for votes, the elimination of a conservative "law and order" candidate
would tend to favor to great extent other conservative candidates standing for "law and order."
According to this reasoning, the candidate who
would receive the most benefit from the elimination
of Governor George C. Wallace -- especially if Wallace were running as a third party candidate -would be the candidate holding a position closest
to Wallace's platform.
It is conceivable therefore that a de facto conspiracy interested in supporting another conservative "law and order" candidate would consider that
the elimination of Governor Wallace would be beneficial to their intentions.
But it is almost inconceivable that such ade facto
conspiracy would use such a clumsy and ineffective
agent and method as the ones chosen on this occasion.
One would expect greater efficiency from a carefully
planned conspiracy.
The National Commission on the Causes and Prevention of Violence examined over 80 attacks on presi~
dents, congressmen, state governors, and other officeholders and found:
In case after case the [study] reveals the
attacks were prompted by fanatic allegiance
33
to a political cause or revenge for some
petty slight or imagined evil.
The thesis most often offered in newspaper reports
to date has been
Now Arthur Bremer is known
This correlates with Bremer's taking out two books
from the Milwaukee Public Library on the assassination of Robert F. Kennedy, which were found in his
car.
5. Gun Control
Another systems aspect that has been much talked
about is gun control. The "Wall Street Journal" on
May 17 published
The first of a series of articles on guns,
where people get them, what people do with
them, and what people think about them.
The yearly toll in the United States from death by
guns is over 21,000, or an average of 57 a day. The
article was unusual and interesting, becauseit named
12 persons who died from gun shots in the 24 hours
from noon May 15 to noon May 16, and told a little
about each person -- so as to give a sampling of
what the statistics mean.
Unfortunately, the article made no comparison
with other countries, where the death rate from guns
is less than a hundredth of the death rate in the
United States.
The use of guns in the United States is pretty
much dictated by the "gun lobby" led by the National
Rifle Association with a million members. It consists of an alliance of hunters, target shooters,
and gun manufacturers. Its vote-getting ability recently was a major element in retiring former Senator Tydings of Maryland, who had spoken out in favor of much more extensive gun control.
Governor Wallace's own remarks (before he was
shot) express an important point of view:
Restrictive gun legislation ~herever it
might be -- at the national level or the
state level -- really in the long run restricts the law-abiding citizen who owns
a gun. But the law violator doesn't pay
attention to any law whether it is gun
control or any other law ... If I were
convinced that gun control legislation
would control crime in this country and
would stop the high homicide rate and
crimes of passion, and the other planned
crimes, I would be for it ... But we know
that it is not going to do that. This
false liberalism that in the last decade
or so has brought about such legislation
as gun controls at the national level and
the state levels in many states is the same
liberalism that has brought heroin addiction
in the streets ... [If restrictive gun legislation came about] it would arm completely
the outlaws, and that's no way to reduce
crime.
From the point of view of a useful, systemsanalysis action now, to protect presidential candidates in this 1972 election, any gun control legislation is completely unrealistic.
Even if "gun control" could be enacted widely before November 1972, the enormous supply of probably
more than two million guns at present in the posses34
sion of individuals allover the country would not
dry up.
So, it is a futility, a waste of breath, to talk
about gun control. Instead, systematic protection
of candidates against guns and against efforts to assassinate them is an important factor to be considered.
6. The Systematic Protection
of Presidential Candidates
In regard to the defense of a presidential candidate against attempts to assassinate him, there are
a number of procedures (belonging to common sense,
wisdom, safety engineering, systems analysis, and
general strategy), that can be adopted quite easily.
1. Ambush. What an assassination team or individual needs most is reliable information ahead of
time as to where the candidate will be. Once they
or he knows that, a place for the ambush can be
chosen deliberately and plans can be implemented.
2. Travel Information and Itinerary. The candidate should therefore make systematic efforts to
prevent the preparation of ambush. He should announce he will travel by one route but when the time
comes he should use another. His staff should say
he will leave the speaking hall by one route, but
when the time comes, he should use another. Etc.
In the assassination of Senator Robert Kennedy,
Sirhan B. Sirhan waiting in the hotel pantry repeatedly inquired "Is he coming out this way?"
3. Private Plane Travel.
ever be used repeatedly.
No private plane should
In the case of Walter Reuther, auto union leader
who died in an airplane crash in Michigan in May
1970, there was an official report many months later
that the altimeter in his rented plane had been put
together defectively, so that it read a higher altitude than the real altitude. Reuther threw away many
opportunities for protection by systematically using
the same privately rented plane to fly from Detroit
to the UAW vacation resort on weekends.
4. Bulletproof Shield when talking.
When the
candidate talks before an aUdience, he should use a
bullet proof shield.
Wallace probably would have been shot and perhaps
killed by Bremer from his seat in the audience if
there had not been the bulletproof transparent plastic shield around Wallace's podium.
.
5. Bulletproof Vest.
On occasions when planned
shooting might occur, the candidate should wear a
bulletproof vest, such as policemen in anticipated
shoot-outs wear.
Wallace probably would not now have paralyzed
legs, if he had been wearing a bulletproof vest.
6. Shaking Hands. Whenever a group of people
want to shake hands with a candidate, on an occasion
which is not absolutely spontaneous (as for example
when the candidate suddenly chooses to stop his car
at Pennsylvania Ave. and 12 St.), they should be invi ted to form into a single line, and the line should
be checked by the same kind of metal detectors that
some airlines have installed to detect hijackers.
It would be easy to explain this arrangement to
supporters of the candidate, in the same way as many
airline passengers are reassured by the checking, by
accomplished metal detectors as they walk into their
COMPUTERS AND AUTOMATION for July, 1972
plane, for it reduces their fears that their plane
may be hij acked.
7. Secret Service Guards. The Secret Service
guards assigned to presidential candidates certainly
do some good. But they did not do Wallace any good
on May 15. They are far from being enough. Why
were they so incompetent?
8. Distraction. The greatest advantage that an
assassin can have is distraction. It is truly remarkable how much one can accomplish by distraction:
you focus people's attention on one thing, and then
you suddenly do something else.
To prevent the use of the technique of distraction, one or two trustworthy guards should be continually assigned to pay no attention to the number
one thing going on but to watch for the number two
thing that may start to happen.
Bremer is supposed to have engaged in distraction.
The "New York Times" on May 16 reported:
"Hey George, Hey George! Come over here:
Come over here:", the man shouted insistently
according to several witnesses.
9. Systems Analysis and Information Engineering.
The entire system of the protection of a presidential candidate against assassination (or violent attack) should be studied by a competent group of
trustworthy assistants to the candidate, and sensible procedures adopted, wi th the benefi t of modern
technology. And the fas ter and the sooner, the bet ter.
The United States cannot afford to lose presidential candidates or presidents, to violent illegal
attacks, or elimination, or liquidation, or death.[]
Nyikos - continued from page 31
interpretations upon the public have been made.
subject of UFOs has not "arrived".
The
What is the nature of the obstacles to recognizing significant subjects that are unrecognized?
- Failure to understand and apply the scientific
method;
- The preference for simple explanations over more
complicated ones;
- Ignorance;
- Prejudice and bias;
- Contentment with a narrow point of view;
- Authoritarianism: "What ... says is good enough
for me";
- The desire of establishments to mold public
opinion;
- The desire of many people to have their thinking
done for them because it is easier that way;
- The desire of advertisers to have people listen
to commercial advertising;
- The desire of experts to have a monopoly of
expertise;
- The addling of people's minds by a great deal of
TV, radio, and newspapers;
- The moral failure of being exhausted after putting out a certain amount of moral indignation;
etc.
The list is a long one.
Unsettling, Disturbing, Critical
Computers and Automation, established 1951 and
therefore the oldest magazine in the field of computers and data processing, believes that the profession of information engineer includes not only
competence in handling information using computers
and other means. but also a broad responsibility.
in a professional and engineering sense, for:
The reliability and social significance of
pertinent input data;
The social value and truth of the output
results.
•
In the same way, a bridge engineer takes a professional responsibility for the reliability and
significance of the data he uses, and the safety
and efficiency of the bridge he builds, for human
beings to risk their lives on.
Accordingly, Computers and Automation publishes
from time to time articles and other informatjon
related to socially useful input and output of data
systems in a broad sense. To this end we seek to
publish what is unsettling, disturbing, critical
-- but productive of thought and an improved and
safer" house" for all humani ty. an earth in whi ch
our children ~nd later generations may have a future, instead of facing extinction.
The professional information engineer needs to
relate his engineering to the most important and
most serious problems in the world tOday: war,
nuclear weapons, pollution, the population explos{on, and many more.
.
COMPUTERS AND AUTOMATION for July, 1972
Knowing the nature of the obstacles, information
engineers should find it easier to deal with them.
4. Significant Subjects that are Inadequately Covered
Proposed List
Genocide in Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia
Genocide in the past in:
Turkey; Armenia; Indonesia; Germany; Romans vs.
Carthaginians in Carthage; Americans vs. Indians
and Negroes in the U.S.; etc.
.
Genocide, causes of
Wars and/or uprisings in:
Tibet; Cuba; Venezuela; Panama; Brazil; Burma;
Thailand; Iraq; Cyprus; Nigeria; Congo; Indonesia; Southern Rhodesia; Philippines; South Africa; Haiti; Uruguay; Guatemala
Disarmament, inspection for
Population explosion, different limits in different
countries
United Nations, more accomplishments by
Man in perspective
Civilization,.nature of, vs. the "American Way" 0
35
Computer-Field Information
vs. Social Rag
I. From: Arthur Martin, President
Computer Covenant Corp.
1156 East Ridgewood Ave.
Ridgewood, N.J. 07451
To: Computers and Automation
May 18, 1972
I read your subscription renewal letter with interest. We have been a subscriber to C~A for a number of years, but do not plan to renew.
The reason is quite simple -- your magazine does
not provide what you say it does. or at least not according to priori ties of design, applications', and
implications of information processing.
At one time we looked to G&A to supply application design techniques, but the magazine has turned
into a social rag. We are not questioning your editor's politics, but only saying that if you portray
that you are in the computer information business,
why not produce it?
II. From: Edmund C. Berkeley
Editor, Computers and Automation
May 23, 1972
Your letter has been referred to me.
First, thank you for expressing plainly and directly your point of view, and for signing your letter. Many letters like yours come to us unsigned,
and with no address -- and so we do not know how to
reply to the writer.
I enclose copies of the tables of contents of
the April and of the May issues of G&A. There are
six standard computer-field articles in the April
issue, and four standard, computer-field articles
in the May issue, and in both issues additional
standard, computer-field items of information.
Now it is quite possible (and indeed normal) for
a reader to simply pass over and pay no attention
t9 any parts of a newspaper or magazine he is not
interested in. Thus some readers pass over the real
estate pages in a Sunday newspaper because they have
absolutely no interest in real estate. But these
readers do not write to the Sunday paper and say,
"If you continue to publish real estate ~nformation,
I won't continue to buy your Sunday paper."
Could you please tell me how the collection of
computer-field articles and items in the April and
May issues fall short of giving you a good monthly
bill of fare in the computer field? I'd like to
know.
We are trying our best to publish in each month
interesting and important articles in the computer
field, to the same degree as in the past -- no matter how much we fill up the pages that used to be
advertising pages with matter related to "the pursuit of truth in input, output, and processing".
If you would prefer to telephone me instead of
writing, would you please call me station-to-station
collect; and if I am not in, the call will not be
accepted.
III. Note:
Up to our going-to-press date June 10, no reply
from Mr. Martin had been received.
36
~
""",",
_-"'"
..•.
'
, l ~ ~~:~~;/~~@~\f%::?>:::'
.
Ba Toi
COMPUTERS AND AUTOMATION for July, 1972
PACIFICATION: The Story of Ba Toi
American Friends Service Committee
48 Inman Street
Cambridge, Mass. 02139
Ba Toi's mother, Ph am Thi Toi, was 24 when American troops visited her village of My Lai. Her family was woiking near their hut when the Americans
took them away from the village. Later the remains
of Ba Toi's mother, old uncle, oldest brother and
sister, and two younger boys were found in a pile
of bodies. Ba Toi and her ~ister had not been near
the hut when the soldiers arrived. They ran and
hid and survived.
tired." She said, "I'm tired of war and being hurt.
I'm tired of death. Please give me something to sleep."
After another operation on her stump, Ba Toi lay
in the province hospital for two days. She lay nude,
a heavy blanket thrown over her mid-section, her
breasts and three remaining stumps lying bare. She
was hitched up to an intravenous bottle, but the
nurses at the desk didn't notice when it stopped runing. On the night of the second day, she died.
None of the survivors of the massacre were allowed
to return to their village. They were rounded up by
the South Vietnamese government and ordered to build
a fence around an American outpost. Though the people protested that the site chosen for the camp was
heavily mined. the American and ARVN soldiers forced
them to go ahead with the work of gathering bamboo
for the fence and driving stakes into the ground.
The same day, two A37 subsonic jets flew from Danang and dropped bombs on the refugee camps near My
Lai.
The death and destruction resulting from United
States intervention in Indochina has far exceeded
the most pessimistic predictions. In response to
the devastation the American Friends Service Committee has committed itself deeply to efforts to end
the war in Indochina and to relieve its victims. The
story of Ba Toi was taken from reports written by
staff members of the Quaker Rehabilitation Center in
Quang Ngai.
Ba Toi was bending over picking up bamboo when
she triggered a mine that blew off both her legs.
Both her arms were badly damaged as well and had to
be amputated at the province hospital.
Ba Toi remained in the province hospital for several months, and then began to receive treatment at
a Quaker rehabi Ii tation center on the hospi tal grounds.
There she had another operation on her stumps and was
fitted with artificial legs and arms. One of the arms
had a hook that could be manipulated like fingers,
and the other had a plastic hand that could 'carry
objects.
Ba Toi made a great effort to master her artificial legs and arms, and by the time she left the rehabilitation center she was able to walk quite well
and was very proud of her achievement. When she
left the center, the Quakers also gave Ba Toi a small
amount of money -- the equivalent of ten American
dollars -- to buy what she would need to start a
small concession.
•
Ba Toi returned to the refugee camp where the survivors of My Lai were being kept. She and her sister
built a small lean-to which became their home and
shop. They soon began to earn a little money, selling canned milk, tobacco and cooking supplies to
their neighbors in the refugee compound. They did
not make enough, however, to buy all the rice they
needed.
Last April. the NLF began to advance rapidly down
the road toward My Lai, burning the refugee camps
and telling the people to return to their villages.
During the fighting ARVN troops lobbed American
shells into Ba Toi's camp. One of the shells landed in Ba Toi' s hut. Her sister was killed, and shrapnel hit Ba Toi in the stomach. As she struggled to
put on her legs and get into the bunker, she was
caught in a cross fire, and a bullet penetrated the
stump of one of her arms.
It was several hours before a friend could get
Ba Toi to the province,hospital. She didn't complain of pain but repeated that she was "tired, very
COMPUTERS AND AUTOMATION for July, 1972
Present American policy means
ation of the war in Indochina -the massive automated bombing of
Toi and her family, few American
silent consent.
indefinite continuwar which features
civilians like Ba
casualties, and our
You can use your voice to help stop that war now.
Let the Congress and President know where you stand.
Demand that Congress reassert its constitutional
authority in regard to war, peace, and national priorities. Take what direct action you can in opposition to the war. If you need more information on
American involvement in the war, fill out the attached coupon and mail it to us.
Ba Toi is dead.
How many more Ba Tois will there be?
Can we -- will we -- work for life?
I I
-(may be copied on any piece of paper)American Friends Service Commi ttee
48 Inman St., Cambridge, Mass. 02139
I was interested in the story "PACIFICATION: The
Story of Ba Toi" publi shed in the July 1972
issue of Computers and Automation
Please send me the paper
INDOCHINA 1972: PERPETUAL WAR
Enclosed is a check to support the peace
work of the AFSC.
Name ________________________________________
Address _____________________________________
Ci ty _ _ _ _ _ _ _State _ _ _ _Zi p_ _ __
37
Unhappy Subscriber to Satisfied One
I. From: John Kaler
1610 Richvale Lane
Houston, Texas 77058
February 6. 1972
About 3 months ago you wrote me stating that my
subscription to Computers and Automation had lapsed.
I replied that I had sent you a check for a year's
subscription in May 1971 so my subscription must be
good at least until the renewal date in 1972. With
the letter I enclosed a photostat of the cancelled
check. I stated that perhaps the error was due to
the processing of a change of address for me last
summer when I moved from 330 Arrowhead Blvd .• Apt.
34-0. Atlanta. Georgia. 30236. to the address
shown above.
My subscription has still not been reinstated
and I would appreciate your immediate attention to
this matter. For your reference. the numbers shown
on my address label were 4877058 KALE161J80 06117105.
When the reinstatement is accomplished would you
please extend it to whatever point is necessary so
that I will receive 12 i~sues of the magazine as a
result of the last renewal.
II. From: Edmund C. Berkeley
Editor, Computers and Automation
May 17. 1972
This is a checkup on the matters referred to in
your letter of February 6 to us in regard to your
subscription to "Computers and Automation" and your
nonreceipt of it.
You appear not to be on our roll of subscribers
at this time receiving copies regularly. as I believe you should be. and I want to make sure that
you are put on.
If you will let me know which issues you think
you should have received. and do not have. I will
gladly send those issues to you from this office.
Also. would you be kind enough to send us again
a photostat of your cancelled check? (I enclose $1
on account of your expenses in dealing with us.)
We want all our subscribers to be happy and satisfied.
I enclose a business reply envelope marked "Personal" so that I shall be sure to see your reply
when it comes.
I regret very much that we have not treated you
in the red carpet way in which we like to treat our
subscribers.
III. From: John Kaler
May 20. 1972
I do not know exactly which issues I did not receive. I wrote to you first about this matter on
11/1/71 and had not received any issues for several
months prior to that time. I think it is safe to
assume that the July or August issue was the last
one that I received. Rather than get copies of the
back issues I would much prefer to go back as a
current subscriber and get the next 9 or 10 issues.
if this is possible.
I have always enjoyed your magazine very much
and have especially enjoyed the change in editorial emphasis that has taken place over the past
several years.
I am enclosing a check for $10.00 and would
like you to use it for current expenses in publishing your magazine or for any other purposes
that you might feel to be appropriate.
IV. From: the Editor
June 19. 1972
Thank you very much for you~ letter of May 20.
the copy of your check of May 1971. and your current check for $10. Your kind remarks and your
contribution to us (and to what we are working for)
overwhelm me. Thank youl
Separately I am sending you the June issue which
came out on June 13. and which you may not hpve received in the regular course. I have not yet received the June galley for checking to make sure
that you are included.
We are reentering your subscription currently to
run from June 1972 to May 1973. Although you suggest that you do not need the back issues. I believe that they may be of sufficient interest to
you to be worth scanning the table of contents; so
I am also sending you the back issues July 1971 to
May 1972; if they are not useful. you may return
them to us at our expense (we will refund your
postage).
I am truly glad that you say:
I have always enjoyed your magazine very
much. and have especially enjoyed the
change in emphasis that has taken place
over the past several years.
As you know. I believe it is more than time for
computer professionals to lift their sights to the
broad horizon and prepare to become "information
engineers". socially responsible human beings wi th
professional competence in dealing with information and wi th truth.
0
CORRECTION
In the May 1972 issue of Computers and Automation,
the name of the author of "Effective Management of
an Instrument Pool" was printed incorrectly in several
places:
Please replace liD. H. Townsend" by liD. R. Townsend"
on the cover page, page 4, and page 8. We regret
the error.
As you requested in your letter dated 5/17/72 I
am sending along a photostat of the check which I
sent you in 1971 for a renewal subscription. I am
also sending along a copy of my address as it appeared on your records at time of lapse.
38
COMPUTERS AND AUTOMATION for July, 1972
These six people
have helped
set the stage for an
outstanding
ACM 72.
The stage is set for ACM 72, our Silver
Anniversary Conference to be held at
the Sheraton Boston August 14-16.
These six committee chairmen have
helped make sure it will be the most
complete program ever presented at
an ACM annual conference. With
Boston the background for the entire
performance!
Besides complete, innovative technical and commercial programs, there
will be a number of special events,
including the ACM Silver Anniversary
evening and awards presentations.
Plus cultural, historic and computing
tours of the Boston area-and other
summertime activities.
Plan to be at ACM 72. If you are not an
ACM member, convert part of your
admission fee to annual dues and
save $25. If you're a data processing
executive, send some of your people
and urge them to join ACM.
With Boston the
backdrop.
Technical Program Sessions
1 Featu re Session:
Current Research in Computer
Science.
2 Debates:
The GOTO Controversy and English
as a Query Language.
15 Papers/Panel Discussions:
Topics from Advances in Microprogramming to Privacy and Protection
in Operating Systems.
18 Paper Sessions:
Topics from Artificial Intelligence to
Simulation Tools.
6 Tutorials:
Leading Edge Areas in Artificial
Intell igence.
What is a Data Base?
Generation of Automatic Logic Test
Data.
Microprogramming and Emulation.
Formal Definition of Programming
Languages.
Social Science Computing: Tools for
Policy Making and Education.
2 Workshops:
Exploring the Issues in Data Base
Technology.
Computer-Aided Graphics in Architecture and Planning.
Commercial Program
2 Panels:
Venture Capital.
Presidents' Panel.
11 Sales-oriented Presentations:
Computer Software-The State of the
Art (vendor presentations on the
latest in software products).
Photo: from left to right.
Ken Scott, Printing and Mailing.
John Donovan, Technical Program.
Rosemary Shields, Technical Program.
Jack Crowley, Commercial Program.
Jeff DeVeber, Special Events.
Jim Donohue, Local Arrangements.
Association
for Computing
Machinery
ACROSS THE EDITOR'S DESK
Computing and Data Processing Newsletter
Table of Contents
APPLICATIONS
Gravity Effects Studied Under Computer-Controlled
Experiments
Computer Helps Analyze Worldwide Political Behavior
Cashless-Society Project Reports Progress in N.Y.
Computer Increasing Criminal Arrests by 10 Per Cent
40
40
41
42
APPLICATIONS
GRAVITY EFFECTS STUDIED UNDER
COMPUTER-CONTROLLED EXPER IMENTS
Wenner-Gren Research Laboratory
University of Kentucky
Limestone & Euclid
Lexington, Ky. 40506
Monkeys are riding thousands of miles around and
around a large laboratory at the University of Kentucky as researchers try to learn more about the effects of gravity.
Computer-controlled experiments involving a 50foot radius centrifuge have two aims, according to
Prof. James F. Lafferty of the Wenner-Gren Research
Laboratory: "First, we are trying to determine what
effects increased gravity has on an organism'; behavior; and, coincidentally with those studies, we
are trying to determine the effects upon an organism's health."
A single IBM 1800 data acquisition and control
system runs each experimental effort on a large' rotating centrifuge. As its speed increases, the centrifuge creates conditions of increased gravitational pullan the capsule and experimental subject
riding in it. "We have found that rats can feel
very small changes in gravity -- as little as a
tenth of a G -- and some monkeys are quite sensitive to changes, too," Prof. Lafferty said.
Designing a series of experiments to learn how
much a monkey will do to avoid higher and higher
levels of gravity pull, the research team has programmed the computer to increase the centrifuge
speed until the monkey activates a lever inside his
capsule. Tripping the lever notifies the computer
to reduce speed for 20 seconds. If the lever is
tripped again, speed is further reduced for a 20second period. As the monkey experiences less and
less gravi ty, he may .ignore the lever for 20 seconds
or more. Then, speed picks up again until he notices increased gravi ty and again activates the lever.
Miss Sandra Beaver, a research assistant trained
in pSYChology, noted, "We give the monkeys no training. They learn by trial and error to activate the
lever if they want to reduce gravity. Now we are
running from 1.05 to 2.05 G's to insure no physical
harm comes to the animals. Each is examined on a
40
EDUCATION NEWS
Helping Out
Dental School Explores Computer-Aided Instruction
Canadian Colleges and High Schools Are
Members of Dartmouth's Time-Sharing
Computer Network
42
43
43
regular basis to determine what effects, if any, the
increased G'S have on health."
As the experiments continue, massive amounts of
data are gathered by the IB~ system. At the conclusion of each run, it prints ~ummary statistics, including the average gravitational force on the monkey during the hour-long runs, his response time at
various levels of gravity and other analytic values.
"We will be correlating a wide variety of data
later," ~Iiss Beaver said, "to determine wi th precision how well the animals detect gravity changes and
how much they will do to avoid high levels of gravity."
Some hints on the effects of weightlessness, the
opposite of increased gravity, may result from the
studies, too, Prof. Lafferty said. "As longer and
deeper space missions evolve, we hope to know in advance what weightlessness will do to man's health
and behavior," he said. "Artificial gravity may
have to be designed into space vehicle engineering
to assure astronaut safety and ability to perform
tasks."
COMPUTER HELPS ANALYZE
WORLDWIDE POLITICAL BEHAVIOR
University of Southern California
University Park
Los Angeles, Calif. 90007
Dr. Charles A. McClelland, an inventive political
scientist at the University of Southern California,
believes computer analysis can help experts anticipate future trouble spots in the complex realm of
international political behavior. He uses a computer in USC's computing center to compile a historical file of relations between countries. lie
can illustrate this interplay with computer-generated graphs showing the ups and downs of political
life between any of 169 nations around the world
more than 25,000 pairs of countries in all.
Now in its fifth year, the federally funded project is built on thousands of facts culled from the
Los Angeles Times, London Times and New York Times.
The studies are being carried on in the international
relations department's research institute, which Dr.
McClelland directs.
"We're able to reconstruct a simplified record of
what has happened in a certain international situation, compare it with today's events and draw some
COMPUTERS AND AUTOMATION for July, 1972
conclusions about the possible resul t," he said. "\lie
want to try to find out if the big, eyeball-to-eyeball confrontations so common today have any predictable pattern."
One of Dr. McClelland's biggest tasks is in keeping up with his data. Each item from the three
source newspapers dealing with international affairs
is clipped, and a coded version goes onto a punched
card and is stored in the computer. A single day's
crop may exceed one hundred articles. "We clip every
item that crosses a national boundary," he explained.
"As long as it in some way relates to the dealings
between two countries, we include it in our model."
The coding system is simple, quick and understandable. "First we assigned each nation a permanent
code number," he said. "Then we established 63
categories of international political activity, from
the mildest sort of action to outright war. "Number
013, for instance, records a nation's admission of
guilt, an apology to another nation or verbal retreat. From there we go through comments, praise,
promises and assurances, expressions of regret,
diplomatic recognition, giving economic aid, giving military aid, agreements and proposals."
After that the mood changes. The next category
is rejection -- of a treaty offer, for instance.
Then come such increasingly offensive actions as
charges, denunciations, complaints, protests, demands, threats, demonstrations, armed displays,
cancellation of treaties or aid, breaking off of
diplomatic relations, expulsion of envoys, detentions and arrests, non-military injury or destruction and finally military force.
"Thus when Denmark recently announced that it
planned formal recognition of the new nation of
Bangladesh, the item was coded 390-025-765 on the
IBM card," Dr. McClelland said. "The 390 is Denmark's permanent number, the 025 reflects a statement of policy and 765 represents Bangladesh." When
Denmark formally recognizes the new Asian nation,
the action will be coded 390-064-765, the 064 denoting diplomatic recogni tion. "At any time, then,
we can get back from the computer a complete listing of all the goings-on between any two countries,"
Dr. McClelland said. "And when we direct the IBM
system to plot out the results in graph form, we
can see both the number of transactions between
these countries and the seriousness of those actions."
The USC professor feels automated systems such as
his offer a new perspective on the world situation.
"It seems apparent that patterns of international
conduct can be boiled down and sorted out by computer," he said. "For instance, we can expect to
discover that a certain nation always makes threats
before it strikes, always says things in the same
kind of language. Once such a pattern is established, we could be better able to figure out in
advance what's likely to happen in a particular
world trouble spot -- or pinpoint such a trouble
spot before the si tuation gets totally out of hand."
similar project is being tested at the U.S. Naval
Post-Graduate School in Monterey, Calif., and a
system modeled after USC's was begun in January at
the U.S. Naval Academy.
CASHLESS-SOCIETY PROJECT
REPORTS PROGRESS IN N.Y.
Digimatics Inc.
TOOO Franklin Avenue
Garden City, N. Y. 11530
Today, in the Long Island community of Syosset,
the nation's first fully automated point-of-sale
funds transfer system is replacing cash, checks and
credit cards in hundreds of retail transactions.
The system, called "Instant Transaction" (IT),
was developed over a three year period by Digimatics,
Inc. for the Hemps tead Bank to overcome certain limitations that exist in the present payment system,
such as fraud and a constantly increasing volume of
paper processing. First units were installed at 32
retail establishments. Consisting of an optical
card reader, standard 12 button touch-tone keyboard
and a printer, each point-of-sale terminal can not
only complete a transaction in 30 seconds but requires no technically trained personnel for its
operation.
IT was designed to be independent of the subscriber's accounting system. Thus, any subscriber
can utilize IT by merely issuing cards meeting the
specifications of machine readability; forwarding
cardholder balance files in a fixed format to the
host computer; and accepting transaction files from
the host computer in a fixed format.
At the start of each business day, the bank forwards a file containing the account number and "available funds" (any combination of balances or credit
lines defined by the bank) for each of its cardholders to the computer.
During the day, the computer continuously updates
the cardholder's available funds as his transactions
are processed and simultaneously makes two records
of the transaction -- one to debit the cardholder's
account and the other to credit the participating
merchant. This data is then posted by the bank at
the close of business.
The
number
bedded
is not
IT identification card contains an account
and a secret code. The code, which is emin the ~ard, is of a proprietary nature. It
detectable by x-rays, ultraviolet light, etc.
Dr. McClelland emphasized that the goal of the
research is to perfect the system of computer procedures that facili tates the analysis of patterns in
international events. "Government information
sources that, in some cases, may be many times more
detailed than the available newspaper facts ultimately can be used in the system," he said. The
computer is an IBM System/370 Model 155.
Upon activation of the terminal, the sales clerk
inserts a multi-part sales slip which is locked in
the printer. The customer then enters his secret
code in the verifier board. If a valid code comparison is made, the computer signals that it is
ready to receive transaction data and the clerk enters the amount of the transaction. If there are
sufficient funds in the customer's account and a
verification "go" signal was received,the customer's
and merchant's accounts are updated by the transaction amount, a transaction record is generated and
stored on both magnetic tape and disk, and a valid
transaction message is formatted and transmitted
back to the terminal. This message includes the
date, customer's account number, merchant's account
number, transaction code and the amount of the transaction.
Though the system is still being developed, it
already has attracted attention from the Navy. A
At this point, the system shuts itself off releasing the sales slip, one copy of which is given
COMPUTERS AND AUTOMATION for July, 1972
41
to the customer as his receipt and the other is retained by the sales clerk as a permanent record of
the transaction.
According to Digimatics president E. Paul Leedom,
the IT system is not a new type of credit card but a
new means through which the consumer can have access
to whatever funds the card issuer makes available to
him. These funds might consist of checking or savings account balances or various lines of credit.
Although only the Hempstead Bank is presently on the
IT system, the established procedures would apply
to future subscribers, such as other banks and credit card issuers, without major modification.
The computer also produces special reports on request. These can include, for example, reports on
the type of businesses most frequently burglarized
during ihe su~mer monihs, the correlation between
strong-arm robberies and week of the month, type of
item most often stolen from cars during the past two
months, or any of hundreds of other combinations of
crime factors. For more information contact Beryl
O'Donovan.
EDUCATION NEWS
HELPING OUT
COMPUTER INCREASING CRIMINAL ARRESTS
BY 10 PER CENT
RCA Government and Commercial Systems
Moorestown, N.J. 08057
A computer normally used for scientific purposes
has been credi ted by. police authori ties wi th increasing criminal arrests by 10 per cent in Camden, N.J.
Located at the RCA Advanced Technology Laboratories in Camden, the computer makes it possible to deploy police forces more effectively by providing a
weekly analysis of the location, day of week and
hour that crimes are most likely to occur.
"Computer runoffs, which are easy to interpret,
make it possible to concentrate police efforts in
predicted high-crime areas during hours when crimes
are most likely to occur;" according to Joseph Benton, who heads the crime-fighting computer program
for the police.
The computer is particularly valuable in deploying Camden's 27-man Tactical Force, a group which
has no permanent assignment, but reinforces regular
patrols in locations forecast by the computer as
trouble spots.
Recently, for example, the computer data indicated a high rate of larceny from automobiles was
occurring in the vicinity of Rutgers University.
Officers dispatched to the area placed notes on
windshields of parked cars, asking drivers to help
prevent thefts by keeping doors locked. The result
was a drop of more than 95 per cent in larcenies
from vehicles during the forecasted period.
Western Electric Company, Inc.
195 Broadway
New York, N. Y. 10007
For better or no, the young Huck Finns of yesterday are gone. In today's frenetic society
there is precious little time for loafing by the
riverbank; youth are quickly caught up in a technological, computer-oriented society that promises the moon but demands early dedication to one
of a diversity of specialized fields.
Western Electric people are helping young people
make a sound choice. On their own time, with
skills honed through experience and with a desire
to use these skills in social settings, Western
Electric employees around the country are volunteering to help the next generation cope with a
frighteningly complex world. Chauncey Herring,
Jr. is a good example.
Chauncey Herring is a Western Electric engineer
at the company's Princeton, N.J. Research Center.
Since last October, he and a dozen Trenton, N.J.
junior and senior high school students have been
meeting each Tuesday and Thursday night at the "Y"
for exercises in basic computer logic and programming. It's part of a computer education program
designed, organized and taught by Chauncey for the
Central Branch of the Trenton YMCA.
The program is aimed at students interested in
possible careers with computers, and includes everything from computer numbering systems through programming logic. And it's not all book learning
either.
The weekly analysis produced by the computer is
based on information programmed into it on offenses
that occurred during the previous two weeks. Evidence on each crime is broken down according to
location, time, day of week, item stolen, mode of
operation and details on the victim and perpetrator.
When he sold the YMCA Youth Director on the
course idea last fall, Chauncey also arranged to
borrow a mini-computer from the Princeton Junior
Museum to give the students actual experience with
programming and de-bugging. The class is a long
time dream come true for Chauncey. He's been
searching for some time for a way to work with
kids in an educational setting.
A recent profile on purse snatching, for example,
specified nine of the 43 sectors of Camden in which
they were predicted to occur, with the highest rate
on Thursday and Friday, between the hours of noon
and 4: 00 p. m., and currency as the prime target. Victims were listed as females, 30 years of age and upward, with attacks occurring chiefly at bus stops.
The perpetrators generally were described as being
under 18 years of age, ranging in height· from 5 feet
6 inches to 6 feet, and weighing between 121 and 140
pounds.
"It's amazing what kids can absorb, if you just
present it right," he said. "I remember when we
first started. I told them we'd be covering things
like Boolean Algebra and Hexidecimal numbers and
you could just see the fright in their faces. But
I didn't do anything about it right away. I just
started teaching the basics at a level they could
understand. After a couple of weeks I announced
that we weren't going to cover Boolean Algebra after all. Then I told them we'd just finished it."
Each seven-day profile run off by the computer is
first reviewed by police District Commanders who inform their men on the forecasts, he pointed out.
Chauncey has two main goals for the class:
first, to give each class member enough of the
basics of computer logic and programm~ng to enable him to go on to further development, either
42
COMPUTERS AND AUTOMATION for July, 1972
also have CAl segments ranging from a review of
anatomy to 16 problem situations involving simulated
patients, their symptoms and histories.
"Our effort is not directed at replacing teachers.
There is no substitute for personal teaching and
learning. However, because of our increased emphasis on service to the student in a period of manpower shortages and rising costs, we see CAl as one
means of varying the rate at which students complete
their dental educations."
In a typical student-computer interchange, dental
students communicate with an IBM System/360 Model 65
in the university's computing center by means of a
typewriter-like terminal. The student signs on with
his assigned computer number and begins the program
he has chosen. The computer states information about
a patient or dental problem and then asks the student
a question. The computer analyzes the student's answer, telling him if he was right or guiding him to
the right answer if he was wrong. It might suggest
that he consult slides projected alongside the terminal. At the end of each session, the computer
tells the student his total score.
"The immediate feedback which is a part of CAl
is what makes it such a good teaching device," said
Prof. Smith. "The student knows right away whether
his answer is right or wrong and why. This way he
can remember the material better, a fact which has
been proved in many educational studies."
with a job or more education; and second, to see
the class become self-sustaining, with old-timers
teaching the basics to newcomers.
In the first area, he reported that one of his
students has already found a computer trainee job
for the summer and plans to enroll as a computer
science major in college this fall. To help the
class become self-sustaining, Chauncey periodically
reviews recent study material by asking the students to run the class and to present the material
to each other.
"That way we get a good idea of how well they
understand it and can present it to someone else.
When we bring in new kids for the next class, it'll
be a lot easier to get to them with another student
who's been through the same program and speaks the
same language."
DENTAL SCHOOL EXPLORES
COMPUTER-AIDED INSTRUCTION
University of Kentucky
Limestone & Euclid
Lexington, Ky. 40506
Dental students at the University of Kentucky
"talk" wi th a computer as part of a' program to
speed them through their studies. Dedicated to a
flexible curriculum that will permit brighter students to complete coursework in less than four years,
the College of 'Dentistry is studying how best to use
computer-assisted instruction (CAl).
Four courses involve CAl -- oral pathology is
taught entirely by CAl, with all third-year Oral
Pathology students receiving facts and questions
from a typewriter-like IBM 2741 communications terminal and a slide viewer alongside. Dental practice
environment, oral anatomy and endodontic technique
COMPUTERS AND AUTOMATION for July, 1972
CANADIAN COLLEGES AND HIGH SCHOOLS
ARE MEMBERS OF DARTMOUTH'S
TIME-SHARING COMPUTER NETWORK
Dartmouth College
Office of Information Services
302 Crosby Hall
Hanover, N.H. 03755
Twelve Canadian colleges and high schools are
now members of the Kiewit Educational Time-Sharing
Computer Network operated by Dartmouth College.
The Canadian institutions join some 50 other colleges and high schools in the United States who
regularly use the Dartmouth Time-Sharing System
(DTSS).
According to officials of the Kiewit Computation Center, the Canadian institutions logged 860
hours of computer terminal time, 11,313 seconds of
'computer processing time, and stored 128,000 words
in memory during the month of March.
The DTSS system, which can handle 160 simultaneous users, and the widely used computer language
BASIC, a combination of English and high school algebra, were developed in the early 1960s by a team
of Dartmouth undergraduates and Dartmouth President
John G. Kemeny and Mathematics Professor Thomas E.
Kurtz, director of Kiewit.
The Kiewit Educational Network was extended into
Canada in 1971 under an agreement with the firm of
Joseph and Chambers, Ltd., of Montreal, sole Canadian representatives of DTSS in that country.
In addition to the Canadian network, Dartmouth
provides time-sharing computer services for its
3,800 undergraduate and graduate students and 500
faculty members; some 10,000 students at schools in
seven eastern states; a private foundation and a
major hospital in New York City; and a number of
commercial firms.
43
NEW CONTRACTS
Univac Division of Sperry
Rand France, Blue Bell, Pa,
French National Railway Co.
(SNCF), Paris, France
Computer Terminal Corp.,
San Antonio, Texas
Codex Corp., Newton, Mass.
North American Corp., New
York, N.Y.
Defense Communications Agency
UNIVAC 1110 systems (3) for direct message
switching in national network to expedite
freight car control, keep track of equipment maintenance, prepare train schedules,
traffic flow surveys , and compiling statistics
Purchase of C.T.'s Datapoint equipment
$12 million
Data com~unications equipment and related
services for The Fefense Communications
$7.5 million
(approximate)
$13 million
(approximate)
_______________________~s~y~s~t~e~m~s~H~i~g~h~S~p~e~e~d~C~hannel~P~a~c~k~i~n~g~S~u~b~s~y~s~t~e~m~~~~~~77----Model DS-8430 disk storage systems to re$3.15 million
place Fastrand drum storage systems and add
storage capaci ty to Univac computers at four
Naval data processing centers
Honeywell, Inc., Tampa,
U.S. Air Force Oklahoma City
Nine AN/UCC-4 multiplexer systems each
$2.7 million
=F~I~a~.__~~__~__________________~A~i~r_j~Ma~t~e~r~l~·a~I~A~r~e~a~,~O~k~l~a~.~·________~f~o~r~a ~ific military communications site
Control Data Corp.,
Washington Metropolitan Area
Designing automatic fare collection system $2.5 million
Minneapolis, Minn.
Transi t Authority (WMATA),
for 98-mlle subway system being-constructed
Washington, D.C.
in D.C. and adjacent areas in Md. and Va.;
ini tial phase of contract covers engineering
development services; production portion includes negotiated maximum production prices
on 4 major types of terminals for first 37
stations of the 86-station system; equipment
for remaining stations to be negotiated
later; estimate of manufacture, installation, and maintenance of entire system will
cost approximately $46.4 million
Rapidata, Inc., Fairfield,
New York Telephone Co.,
A renewed and expanded long term contract to
$1. 7+ million
N.. _____________________
~N~e~w~Y~o~.r~k~.~N~.~Y~.__________________~in~c~·I~u~d~e~a~s~e~c~o~n~d~dedicated computer system
$1.6+ million
SYSTEMS Engineering LaboraSikorsky Aircraft Div.,
A large SYSTEMS 86 computer system to be
tories, Inc., Fort LauderStratford, Conn.
used as the hub of firm's Flight Data ProcessingCenter Ground Station in Stratford
dale. Fla.
Datacraft Corp., Fort LauHarris-Intertype Corp.
66 computers to be used in a number of
$1.5 million
(approxim3te)
products produced by the firm's divisions
derdale. Fla.
Univac Division of Sperry
UNIVAC 1106, to be delivered in 1973, will
$1.5 million
Societe Europeenne de Pro(approximate)
Rand Corp., Blue Bell, Pa,
pulsion (SEP), Puteaux,
process technical and scientific calculaParis, France
tions resulting from SEP's activities in
both civil and military fields of rocket
propulsion
$1.26 million
Varian Data Machines,
PRD Electronics, Syosset,
A series of R622/i computer systems used
Irvine, Calif.
N.Y.
in Navy's AN/USM-247 Versatile Avionic
Shop Test (VAST) System; PRD Electronics
________________________________________~ime contractor for the program
$1.1 mi 11 ion
Univac Division of Sperry
Companhia Portuguesa de
UNIVAC 1106 system for scientific work and
Rand Corp., Blue Bell, Pa,
Electricidade (CPE), Lisbon
establishing management information sysPortugal
tem; later will include real-time monitoring of electric power network throughout
Portug-al
$1+ million
Univac Division of Sperry
Lebole Euroconf, S.p.A. of
UNI VAC 1106 computer sys tem for produc tion
Rand Corp., Blue Bell, Pa,
Italy, Arezzo, Italy
control, budgeting, inventory control,
general accounting. and I)ayroll processing
$900,000
A real-time interactive computer graphics
SYSTEMS Engineering LaboraWestern Electric Co., Win(approximate)
system to be used in the Defense Activitories, Inc., Fort Lauderston-Salem, N.C.
ties Division to generate SAFEGUARD Maindale, Fla.
tenance Data System (MDS) data frames
$250,000
Upgrading firm's existing EMR 6100 Series
Gulf Research and Development
EMR Computer, Minneapolis,
Computer System which is used to process
Minn.
Co., Houston, Texas
seismic exploration data at Gulf's Houston installation
$150,000
Research and development of a new form of
U.S. Passport Office, WashComputer Sciences Corp.
(CSC), Los Angeles, Calif.
ington, D.C.
travel document to replace the present
______ ________ ____________ __ _____________ __
______
__
__________________________________________
Computer Sciences Corp.
Manufacturers Bank, Los AnPerforming all data processing required
(CSC), Los Angeles, Calif.
geles, Calif.
by Manufacturers and its correspondent
banks. for five years
Lease of Series 6000 system known as TiInternational Brotherhood of
Honeywell, Inc., Wellesley
tan (Teamsters International -- Terminal
Teamsters, Washington, D.C.
Hills, Mass.
and Accounting Network) for an on-line network to handle dues, health and welfare accounting, for over 2 million union members
in the U.S., Puerto Rico and Canada
A model 1642 time-sharing system to impleSuburban Police Automated InHoneywell, Inc., Wellesley
ment Suburban Police Automated Information
Hills, i,lass.
formation System, Quincy,
System (SPAIS); joint use by 4 communities
Milton, Braintree and Weywill provide COmmon source of information
mouth, Mass.
pertaining to crime wi thin their jurisdiction
Total data processing for 3 year period
Cardo Automotive Products,
TRILOG Associates, Inc.
Ampex Corp., Marina del Rey,
Calif.
U.S. Navy
~J~.
~
44
~
~
~
~
~
~~
~p~a~s~s~p~o~rt
~~~
COMPUTERS AND AUTOMATION for July, 1972
NEW INSTALLATIONS
Control Data 3400 system
oneywell Model 2015 system
IBM System/3 Model 10
IBM System/7
IBM System 7
IBM System/360 Model 195
Petroleum Data Consultants,
Lafa ette La.
Associated Hospital Service of
Arizona, Phoenix, Ariz.
(2 systems)
Velva Sheen, Cincinnati, Ohio
Buckbee-Mears Company, St. Paul,
Minn.
Motion Picture Laboratories, Inc.,
Memphis, Tenn.
Mellon National Bank and Trust Co.,
Pittsburgh, Pa.
IBM System/370 Model 135
Bertea Corp., Irvine, Calif.
NCR Century 50 system
Bowling Green-Warren County Hospital, Bowling Green, Ky.
Farmers Co-op, Van Buren, Ark.
Howard Community College, Columbia, Md.
Multiple Listing Service of Greater
Baltimore, Inc., Baltimore, Md.
Peterson-Puri tan Co. , Danville, Ill.
Smith Cabinet Manufacturing Co.,
NCR Century 100 system
Anthony Co., Streator, Ill.
Financial Data Corp., Baltimore,
Md.
Richland Memorial Hospital, Columbia, S.C.
NCR Century 200 system
UNIVAC 1106 system
UNIVAC 1110 system
UNIVAC 9200 system
UNIVAC 9200 II system
UNIVAC 9211 B system
UNIVAC 9300 system
Riddle Memorial Hospital, Media,
Pa.
City National Bank, FortSmith, Ark.
Sunbrand Corp., Chamblee, Georgia
Canadian Department of National-Rev--enue and Taxation, Ottawa, Canada
University of Paris, Paris, France
Anaconda Company, Sahuarita, Ariz.
Housing and Commercial Development
Inc. (HUD) , Newport Beach, Calif.
(2 systems)
University of Western Ontario Computer Sciences Department, London,
On t. , Canada
Chem Tech Company, St. Louis, Mo.
Louisiana Wild Life and Fisheries
Commission, New Orleans, La.
Fred Sanders Co., Detroit, Mich.
UNIVAC 9400 system
ADP Service Center, Colorado State
Hospital, Colorado Dept. of Institutions, Pueblo. Col.
University of Houston's College of
Business, Houston, Texas
Xerox Sigma 8 system
COMPUTERS AND AUTOMATION for July, 1972
NASA Ames Research Center, Mountainview, Calif.
Supporting data processing services tothe petroleum
industr and to commercial business enter rises
A variety of hospital- and insurance-related data
processing services for 36 member hospi tals throughout
the state i replaces three Honeywell Series 200 systems
Production control, inventory control and financial
support functions
Monitoring one of its highly automated production
lines that makes a component of color television
Monitoring the printing of 25 kinds of raw film on
each of firm's automated, high-speed printers
Helping process almost 2 million bank and financial
account records each day; the multi-million-dollar
system enables reduction of the number of separate
computers in use from a high of 22 in 1969 to 3 by
mid-1973, and simultaneously serves future marketing support needs of the bank
Production control; involved in every step of design and production processes
Post-discharge accounting, payroll processing and
general accounting
Managing patronage accounts and other general accounting purposes
Administrative and teaching purposes
Inventory control of homes listed, sales statistics
and general accounting
Inventory control and payroll preparation
Payroll, order billing, invoicing, inventory control
and accounts receivable
Production scheduling, accounts payable and receivable and payroll processing
Processing savings accounts, certificates of deposit and mortgages, and general accounting for 11
branches of two firms
Accounts payable and receivable, in patient records,
inventory control, general ledger and payroll accounting, and medical audit statistics
Payroll and in-patient records and post-discharge
accounting
Managing its Central Information File
Order processing, inventory management, sales analysis and manufacturing control
Management Information System enabling inquiries to
be handled from 28 district offices
Use in the scientific research program of the Laboratory for Theoretical Physics and High Energy
(system valued at $2.5 million)
Payroll processing and general accounting
Business and administrative applications, e.g.,
patient billing Bnd payroll processing, maintenance scheduling, mortgage-loan accounting
Supplementing its UNIVAC 9300 computer which is used
for student instruction in data processing
Sales analysis, invoicing, inventory control, and
general accounting
Keeping track of all motor boat registrations and
commercial licenses; maintaining data from oyster
surveys, records of funds received from Federal Government, and perform payroll and accounting tasks
the Commission and the New Orleans Levee Board
Inventory and production control, scheduling and
general accounting
Increasing data processing capacity to provide improved handling of management information. office
applications and many clinical operations including patient movement; other state institutions
will be able to use the computer
Student "hands-on" operating experience as well as
simultaneously processing problems derived from
classroom instruction
Simulating flight characteristics of advanced aircraft; will also be used by FAA for aircraft certification studies and research on flying quality requirements by the National Transportation Safety
Board for investigation of accidents
(system valued at $1.2 million)
45
MONTHLY COMPUTER CENSUS
Neil Macdonald
Survey Editor
COMPUTERS AND AUTOMATION
The following is a sunnnary made by COMPUTERS AND AUTOMATION of reports and estimates of the number of general purpose electronic digital computers manufactured and installed, or to be manufactured and on
order. These figures are mailed to individual computer manufacturers
from time to time for their information and review, and for any updating or comments they may care to provide. Please hote the variation
in dates and reliability of the information. Several important manufacturers refuse to give out, confirm, or comment on any figures.
Our census seeks to include all digital computers manufactured anywhere. We invite all manufacturers located anywhere to submit information for this census. We invite all our readers to submit information that would help make these figures as accurate and complete as
possible.
Part I of the Monthly Computer Census contains reports for United
States manufacturers. Part II contains reports for manufacturers
outside of the United States. The two parts are published in alternate months.
The following abbreviations apply:
(A) -- authoritative figures, derived essentially from information
sent by the manufacturer directly to COMPUTERS AND
AUTOMATION
C
figure is combined in a total
(D)
acknowledgment is given to DP Focus, Marlboro, Mass., for
their help in estimating many of these figures
E
figure estimated by COMPUTERS AND AUTOMATION
(N)
manufacturer refuses to give any figures on number of installations or of orders, and refuses to comment in any
way on those numbers stated here
(R)
figures derived all or in part from information released
indirectly by the manufacturer, or from reports by other
sources likely to be informed
(S)
sale only, and sale (not rental) price is stated
X
no longer in production
information not obtained at press time
SUMMARY AS OF JUNE 15, 1972
NAME OF
MANUFACTURER
Part 1. United States Manufacturers
Autone tics
Anaheim l Calif. (R) (1/69)
Bailey Meter Co.
Wickliffe, Ohio
(A) (6/72)
Bunker-Ramo Corp.
Westlake Village, Calif.
(A)
(4/72)
Burroughs
Detroit, Mich.
(N)
(1/69-5/69)
Computer Automation, Inc.
Newport, Calif.
(A) (4/71)
Consultronics, Inc.
Garland, Texas
(A) (6/72)
Control Data Corp.
Minneapo lis, Minn.
(R)
(7/71)
Data General Corp.
Southboro, Mass.
(A) (6/72)
Datacraft Corp.
Ft. Lauderdale. Fla.
{A} Pl72}
Digiac Corp.
PlainView, N.Y.
(A) (5/72)
46
NAME OF
COMPUTER
RECOMP II
RECOMP III
Metrotype
Bailey 750
Bailey 755
Bailey 756
Bailey 855/15
Bailey 855/25
Bailey 855/50
BR-130
BR-133
BR-230
BR-300
BR-330
BR-340
BR-10l8
205
220
BIOO/B500
B2500
B3500
B5500
B6500
B7500
B8500
108/208/808
116/216/816
4700
DCT-132
DATE OF
FIRST
INSTALLATION
11/58
6/61
10/57
6/60
ll/6l
2/65
12/72
4/68
3/72
10/61
5/64
8/63
3/59
12/60
12/63
6/71
1/54
10/58
7/65
2/67
5/67
3/63
2/68
4/69
8/67
6/68
3/69
4/69
5/69
AVERAGE OR RANGE
OF MONTHLY RENTAL
$ (000)
X
X
40-200
40-250
200-600
60-400
50-400
100-1000
100-1000
X
X
X
X
X
X
23.0
2.8-9.0
4.0
14.0
23.5
33.0
44.0
200.0
5.0
8.0
X
X
X
X
X
5/60
8/61
1/60
5/66
5/64
5/64
9/65
11/64
8/68
6/63
2/66
8/64
8/64
6/67
12/68
X
X
X
Nova
Supernova
Nova 1200
Nova 800
Nova 1210 1 1220
6024/1
6024/3
2'/69
5/70
12/71
3/71
2/72
5/69
2/70
l2L71
1/70
12/64
10/67
Digiac 3060
Digiac 3080
Digiac 3080C
0
0
0
15
0
12
0
0
0
52-57
44
65-74
4
(S)
(S)
12
18
7
X
X
X
X
0
0
0
2
2
0
12
27-40
30-33
X
X
64-49
62
72-81
4
ll7
190
8
60
13
5
110
225
1
165
215
10
20
1
175
235
18
35
0
85
18
120
295
20
165
322
75
29
610
29
59
425-475
83-110
55-60
205
15
15
40
20
108
85
5
8
3.8
10-16
13.0
20-38
18.0
25.0
52.0
53.0
58.0
115.0
130.9
235.0
9.2
9.6
5.4
6.9
4.2;5.2
54-300
33-200
16 50
9.0
30
6
8
52
7
27
0
16
0
X
X
X
X
X
X
25-38
28-31
1.8
0.9
7/55
4/61
12/62
9/56
1/61
30
6
8
37
7
15
0
16
0
160
79
15
18
19
19
NUMBER OF
UNFILLED
ORDERS
(S)
X
X
G15
G20
LGP-2l
LGP-30
RPC4000
636/136/046 Series
160/8090 Series
92l/924-A
1604/ A/B
l700/SC
3100/3150
3200
3300
3400
3500
3600
3800
6200/6400/6500
6600
6700
7600
6024L5
(S)
(S)
(S)
(S)
(S)
(S)
(S)
NUMBER OF INSTALLATIONS
Outside
In
In
World
U.S.A.
U.S.A.
(S)
(S)
(S)
(S)
(S)
(S)
(S)
{S2
(S)
16
94
2
78
16
8
0
13
0
910
190
1350
190
10
16
107
2
78
16
8
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
0
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
Total:
160 E
2
53
35
8
X
X
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for July, 1972
NAME OF
MANUFACTURER
Digital Computer Controls, Inc.
Fairfield, N.J.
(A) ~6/72)
Digital Equipment Corp.
Maynard, Mass.
(A) (5/72)
Electronic Associates Inc.
Long Branch, N.J. (A) (4/72)
EMR Computer
Minneapolis, Minn.
(A)
(4/72)
General Automation, Inc.
Anaheim, Calif.
~A~ ~6L722
General Electric
Wes t Lynn, Mass.
(Proces s Control Computers)
(A)
(6/72)
Hewlett Packard
Cupertino, Calif.
(A) ~8/71)
Honeywell Information Systems
Wellesley Hills, Mass.
(R) (6/72)
NAME OF
COMPUTER
D-112
0-116
PDP-1
PDP-4
PDP-5
PDP-6
PDP-7
PDP-8
PDP-8/1
PDP-8/S
PDP-8/L
PDP-8/E
PDP-8/M
PDP-8/F
PDP-9
PDP-9L
DECSys tem-10
PDP-ll/20
PDP-llR20
PDP-ll/05
PDP-ll/45
PDP-12
PDP-IS
LINC-8
640
8400
PACER 100
EMR 6020
EMR 6040
EMR 6050
EMR 6070
EMR 6130
EMR 6135
EMR 6000
SPC-12
SPC-16
Sys tern 18/30
GE-PAC 3010
GE-PAC 4010
GE-PAC 4020
GE-PAC 4040
GE-PAC 4050
GE-PAC 4060
2114A, 2114B
2115A
2116A , 2116B I 2116C
G58
G105A
G105B
G105RTS
G115
G120
G130
G205
G210
G215
G225
G235
G245
G255 T/S
G265 T/S
G275 T/S
G405
G410 T/S
G415
G420 T/S
G425
G430 T/S
G435
G440 T/S
G615
G625
G635
H-110
H-1l5
H-120
H-125
H-200
H-400
H-800
H-1200
H-1250
H-1400
H-1800
H-2200
H-3200
H-4200
H-8200
DDP-24
DDP-1l6
DDP-124
DDP-224
DDP-316
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for July, 1972
DATE OF
FIRST
INSTALLATION
8/70
1/72
11/60
8/62
9/63
10/64
11/64
4/65
3/68
9/66
11/68
5/72
12/66
11/68
12/67
9/69
2/61
9/66
4/67
7/67
4/65
7/65
2/66
10/66
8/67
1/68
5/70
7/69
5/70
10/70
2/67
8/64
12/66
6/65
10/68
11/67
11/66
5/70
6/69
6/69
7/69
4/66
3/69
12/68
6/64
7/60
9/63
4/61
4/64
11/68
10/67
10/65
11/68
2/68
11/69
5/64
6/67
6/64
6/69
9/65
7/69
3/68
4/65
5/65
8/68
6/70
1/66
12/67
3/64
12/61
12/60
2/66
7/68
1/64
1/64
1/66
2/70
8/68
12/68
5/63
4/65
3/66
3/65
6/69
AVERAGE OR RANGE
OF MONTHLY RENTAL
$~OOO)
10.0
10.0
(S)
(S)
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
4.9
3.9
3.9
(S)
(S)
(S)
X
X
700-3000
10.8
13.8
10.8
17.0
(S)
(S)
(S)
(S)
(S)
X
1.2
12.0
17.2
5.4
6.6
9.0
15.0
5.0
2.6
2.0
6.0
6.0
X
7.0
X
0.25
0.41
0.6
1.0
1.3
1.4
1.2
2.2
2.9
4.5
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
6.8
1.0
7.3
23.0
9.6
17.0
14.0
25.0
32.0
X
47.0
2-7
3.5
4.8
7.0
7.5
10.5
30.0
9.8
12.0
14.0
50.0
18.0
24.0
32.5
50.0
2.65
X
X
X
0.6
(S)
NUMBER OF INSTALLATIONS
Outside
In
In
U.S.A.
World
U.S.A.
87
583
496
2
71
69
48
40
90
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
2
5
10
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
c
c
C
C
C
C
C
C
0
0
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
0
0
C
C
C
107
20
0
60
8
0
10
21
197
45
23
18
0
3
59
20
2
2
50
45
100
23
100
1402
3127
918
3699
3787
365
2
436
40
243
2740
14
0
0
620
545
200
Total:
18456
167
28
0
48
28
53
1200
400
150
10
24
256
65
25
20
1182
333
1171
200-400
420-680
620-1080
11
35
15
145
40-60
3
15-20
45-60
0
0
1
15
17
11
35
16
160
57-77
3
15-20
60-90
10
15-45
15-30
10-40
70-100
240-400
240-400
50-100
20-30
70-130
20
23
20-40
180
30
800
150
800
46
58
230
130
4
15
125
20
18
10
NUMBER OF
UNFILLED
ORDERS
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
4
1
0
0
8
1
25
32
36
X
1
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
26
3
3
7
160
220
275
40
15
90
55
6
5
60
2
2
3
26
23-43
255
30
960
370
1075
86
73
320
185
10
20
185
22
20
13
90
250
250
60
450
X
0
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
47
NAME OF
MANUFACTURER
(cont
I d)
Honeywell
IBM
White Plains, N.Y.
(N) (D)
(6/71)
Interdata
Oceanport, N.J.
(A) (4/72)
Microdata Corp.
Santa Ana, Calif.
(A) ~4/72)
NCR
Dayton, Ohio
(A) (2/72)
Philco
Willow Grove, Pa.
(N) (1/69)
Raytheon Data Systems Co.
Norwood, Mass.
(A)
(4/72)
Scientific Control Corp.
purchased by
Cons u1 tronics, Inc., which see
Standard Computer Corp.
Los Angeles, Calif.
(A) (6/72)
Systems Engineering Laboratories
Ft. Lauderdale, Fla.
(A)
(6/72)
48
DATE OF
FIRST
NAME OF
INSTALLATION
COMPUTER
DDP-416
DDP-516
9/66
H112
10/69
H632
12/68
H1602
H1642
H1644
H1646
H1648
11/68
H1648A
305
12/57
650
10/67
1130
2/66
1401
9/60
1401-G
5/64
1401-H
6/67
1410
11/61
1440
4/63
1460
10/63
1620 I, II
9/60
1800
1/66
7010
10/63
7030
5/61
704
12/55
7040
6/63
7044
6/63
705
11/55
7020,
3/60
7074
3/60
7080
8/61
7090
11/59
7094-1
9/62
7094-Il
4/64
System/3 Model 6
3/71
System/3 Model 10
1/70
System/7
11/71
360/20
12/65
360/25
1/68
360/30
5/65
360/40
4/65
360/44
7/66
360/50
8/65
360/65
11/65
360/67
10/65
360/75
2/66
360/85
12/69
360/90
11/67
360/190
360/195
4/71
370/135
5/72
370/145
9/71
370/155
2/71
370/165
5/71
370/195
6/73
Model 1
12/70
Model 3
5/67
Model 4
8/68
ModelS
11/70
Model 15
1/69
Model 16
5/71
Model 18
6/71
Model 50
5/72
Model 70
10/71
Micro 400
12/70
Micro 800
12/68
Micro 1600
12/71
304
1/60
310
5/61
315
5/62
315 RMC
9/65
390
5/61
500
10/65
Century 50
2/71
Century 100
9/68
Century 200
6/69
Centu!2: 300
2/72
1000
6/63
200-210,211
10/58
2000-212
1/63
250
12/60
440
3/64
520
10/65
703
10/67
704
3/70
706
5/69
IC 4000
IC 6000-6000/E
IC 7000
IC-9000
SYSTEMS 810B
SYSTEMS 71
SYSTEMS 72
SYSTEMS 85
SYSTEMS 8?
12/68
5/67
8/70
5/71
9/68
8/72
9/71
7/72
6/70
AVERAGE OR RANGE
OF MONTHLY RENTAL
$(000)
X
1.2
3.2
NUMBER OF INSTALLATIONS
Outside
In
In
U.S.A.
World
U.S.A.
350
900
75
12
12.0
40
50
2580
2210
420
180
156
1690
194
285
415
67
4
12
35
28
18
10
44
13
4
10
6
7161
1112
5487
2453
109
1135
601
57
50
11
5
13
15
18
1227
1836
450
140
116
1174
63
186
148
17
1
1
27
13
3
3
26
2
2
4
4
55
68
3807
4046
870
320
272
2864
257
471
563
84
5
13
2
41
21
6075
759
2535
1524
57
445
144
6
17
1
13236
1871
8022
3977
166
1580
745
63
67
12
5
15
13
70
15
6
14
10
1780
1287
1363
39
662
562
99
12
55
48
232.0
14.4
23.3
48.0
98.7
190.0-270.0
3.7
8.5
X
20.0
X
X
6.8
6.8
1. 8-30
1. 8-30
1.8-30
X
X
7.0
9.0
0.7
1.0
1.6
2.6
7.0
21.0
X
X
X
X
X
X
9.0
16.0
17.0
400.0
2.6
.9
1.0
6.0
10.0
X
20
3.6
4.8
1.5
5.4
2.3
1.3
17.0
4.1
10.0
4.1
5.1
26.0
160.0
32.0
25.0
36.5
38.0
27.0
35.0
60.0
63.5
75.0
83.0
1.0
1.1
0.35 and up
2.7
5.1
10.3
19.3
11.8
29.1
57.2
133.8
66.9
150.3
(S)
12.5
B.O
19.0
NUMBER OF
UNFILLED
ORDERS
(S)
(S)
(S)
175
70
270
70
40
1
2
3
130
100
1340
50
5
8
425
125
250
1000
200
1500
460
0
16
16
12
115
20
26
175
195
69
115
20
24
5
6
1
15
0
400
2
2
0
300
50
375
1700
3
(S)
4
1
162
525
215
0
20
1
31
44
14
135
20
27
206
239
83
0
0
0
0
8
170
12
24
245
200
385
90
64
6
8
4
145
100
1740
52
7
8
725
175
625
2700
200
2025
675
0
100
X
40
X
X
X
X
15
110
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
0
30
3
1
15
1
25
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for July, 1972
NAME OF
MANUFACTURER
UNIVAC Div. of Sperry Rand
New York, N.Y.
(A) (4/72)
UNIVAC - Series 70
Blue Bell, Pa.
(A) (5/72)
Varian Data Machines
Newport Beach, Calif.
(A) (6/72)
Xerox Data Systems
E1 Segundo, Calif.
(N)
(2/72)
AVERAGE OR RANGE
DATE OF
FIRST
OF MONTHLY RENTAL
NAME OF
$(000)
COMPUTER
INSTALLATION
I & II
X
3/51 & 11/57
III
X
8/62
File Computers
X
8/56
Solid-State 80 I, II,
X
90, I, II, & Step
8/58
418
6/63
11.0
490 Series
12/61
30.0
1004
2/63
1.9
1005
4/66
2.4
1050
9/63
8.5
1100 Series (except
1107, 1108)
12/50
X
1107
10/62
X
1108
68.0
9/65
9200
6/67
1.5
9300
9/67
3.4
9400
5/69
7.0
LARC
5/60
135.0
301
2/61
7.0
501
6/59
14.0-18.0
601
11/62
14.0-35.0
3301
7/64
17.0-35.0
Spectra 70/15, 25
9/65
4.3
Spectra 70/35
1/67
9.2
Spectra 70/45
11/65
22.5
Spectra 70/46
33.5
Spec tra 70/55
11/66
34.0
Spectra 70/60
11/70
32.0
Spectra 70/61
4/70
42.0
70/2
16.0
5/71
70/3
25.0
9/71
70/6
25.0
9/71
70/7
12/71
35.0
620
11/65
X
620i
X
6/67
R-620i
4/69
520/DC, 520i
12/69 ;10/68
620/f
11/70
620/L
4/71
620/f-100
620/L-100
5/72
Varian i3
XDS-92
4/65
1.5
XDS-910
8/62
2.0
XDS-920
9/62
2.9
XDS-925
12/64
3.0
XDS-930
6/64
3.4
XDS-940
4/66
14.0
XDS-9300
11/64
8.5
Sigma 2
12/66
1.8
Sigma 3
12/69
2.0
Sigma 5
8/67
6.0
Sigma 6
12.0
6/70
Sigma 7
12/66
12.0
Sigma 9
35.0
NUMBER OF INSTALLATIONS
Outside
In
In
World
U.S.A.
U.S.A.
23
31
25
13
210
80
76
1522
617
136
9
8
103
1106
412
82
2
154
20
3
78
23
116
312
38
14
10
10
50
2
13
3
NUMBER OF
UNFILLED
ORDERS
X
X
X
X
23 E
15
39
14
610
248
59
119
90
2132
865
195
0
3
129
835
62
41
0
9
11
232
1941
474
123
2
X
X
58 E
725
510 E
83 E
75
l300
80
350
199
436
X
X
43
170
120
10-20
159
28-38
25-30
60-110
10
15-40
4
7-10
5-12
1
14
3
4
10-15
0
6-18
47
177-180
125-132
10-21
173
28-41
25-34
70-125
10
21-58
24-35
5-9
29-44
72
10
125
18
15
5
CALENDAR OF C'OMING EVENTS
Aug. 6-12, 1972: Rio Symposium on Computer Education for
Developing Countries, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil/contact: Luiz de
Castro Martins, C.P. 38015 - ZC-20, Rio de Janeiro - GB Brazil
Aug. 7-11, 1972: SHARE Meeting, Toronto, Canada / contact:
D.M. Smith, SHARE, Inc., Suite 750, 25 Broadway, New York,
N.Y.
Aug. 15-17, 1972: Seminar on ADP in Law Enforcement, Washington, D.C. / contact: ADP Management Training Center, U.S.
Civil Service Commission, Washington, D.C.
Aug. 21-23, 1972: Sixth Annual Mathematical Programming Seminar and Meeting, Vail, Colo. / contact: George M. Lowel, Symposium Directory, Haverly Systems Inc., 4 Second Ave., Denville,
N.J. 07834
Oct. 1-4, 1972: New York State Assoc. for Educational Data Systems' 7th Annual Conference, Fallsview Hotel, Ellensville,
N.Y. / contact: Alfred N. Willcox, Educational Data Processing
Center, 17 Westminster Ave., Dix Hills, N.Y. 11746
Oct. 3-5, 1972: AFIPS and IPSJ USA-Japan Computer Conference, Tokyo, Japan / contact: Robert B. Steel, Informatics
Inc., 21050 Vanowen St., Canoga Park, Calif. 91303
Oct. 8-11, 1972: I nternational Conference on Systems, Man and
Cybernetics, Shoreham Hotel, Washington, D.C. / contact: K.S.
Nurendra, Yale Univ., 10 Hill House, New Haven, Conn. 06520
Oct. 16-20, 1972: IBI-ICC World Conference on Informatics in
Government, Venice, Italy / contact: Intergovernmental Bureau
for Informatics (lBI-ICC),23 Viale Civita del Lavoro, 00144
Rome, Italy
Nov. 9-10, 1972: Second National Conference of Society for
Computer Medicine, Williamsburg, Va. / contact: Society for
Computer Medicine, Box M488, Landing, N.J. 07850
Nov. 15-17, 1972: DATA CENTRE '72, Sheraton-Copenhagen
Hotel, Copenhagen, Denmark / contact:
Data Centre '72,
Danish lAG, DIAG, 58 Bredgade, OK 1260, Copenhagen K,
Denmark
Nov. 20-21, 1972:
Aviv Hilton, Tel
Assoc. of Israel,
ing Conference,
8th Data Processing Conference in Israel, Tel
Aviv, Israel/contact: Information Processing
Programme Committee, The 8th Data ProcessP.O.B. 16271, c/o "Kenes", Ltd., Tel Aviv
December 5-7, 1972: Fall Joint Computer Conference, Anaheim
Convention Center, Anaheim, Calif . ./ contact: AFIPS Headquarters, 210 Summit Ave., Montvale, N.J. 07645
Jan. 17-19, 1973: 1973 Winter Simulation Conference, San Francisco, Calif. / contact: Robert D. Dickey, Bank of California,
400 California St., San Francisco, Calif. 94120
Jan. 31-Feb. 1, 1973: San Diego Biomedical Symposium, SheratonHarbor Island Hotel, San Diego, Calif. / contact: Dr. Robert H.
(please film to page 50)
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for July. 1972
49
Calendar - Continued from page 49.
Riffenburgh, Program Chmn, San Diego Biomedical Symposium
P.O.Box 965, San Diego, Calif. 92112
Mar. 4-9, 1973: SHARE Meeting, Denver, Colo. I contact: D.M.
Smith, SHARE, Inc., Suite 750, 25 Broadway, New York, N.Y.
April 10-12, 1973: Datafair 73, Nottingham University, Nottingham, England I contact: John Fowler & Partners Ltd.~ 6-8
Emerald St., London, WC1 N3QA, England
April 10-13, 1973: PROLAMAT '73, Second International Conference on Programming Languages for Numerically Controlled
Machine Tools, Budapest, Hungary I contact: IF IP Prolamat,
'73, Budapest 112, P.O.Box 63, Hungary
May 14-17, 1973: Spring Joint Computer Conference, Convention
Hall, Atlantic City, N.J. I contact: AFIPS Hdqs., 210 Summit
Ave., Montvale, N.J. 07645
THE 18th ANNUAL EDITION OF THE
COMPUTER DIRECTORY AND
BUYERS' GUIDE, 1972
• . . will be published additionally in July, 1972,
as a special 13th issue of Computers and Automation
The COMPUTER DIRECTORY is:
• an annual comprehensive directory of the firms
which offer products and services to the electronic computing and data processing industry
• the basic buyers' guide to the products and
services available for designing, building,
and using electronic computing and data processing systems
"THE COMPUTER DIRECTORY AND BUYERS GUIDE"
ISSUE OF "COMPUTERS AND AUTOMATION"
NOTICE
The U.S. Postmaster, Boston, Mass., ruled in Jdnuary
1972, that we may no longer include "The Computer
Directory and Buyers' Guide" issue of "Computers and
Automation", calling it an optional, thirteenth issue of
"Computers and Automation" regularly published in June,
and mailing it with second class mailing privileges.
The plan mentioned previously for publishing the directory as a quarterly with second class mailing privileges has
been disapproved and disallowed by the Classification Section of the U.S. Postal Service in Washington, D.C.
Accordingly, in 1972 "The Computer Directory and
Buyers' Guide", 18th annual issue, will be published in
one volume as a book, and mailed as a book.
The domestic price for "The Computer Directory and
Buyers' Guide" will be $14.50, but regular subscribers to
"Computers and Automation" may subscribe to the directory at $9.00 a year (there is thus no change for
them).
"The Computer Directory and Buyers' Guide" issue
of "Computers and Automation" has been published in
every year from 1955 to 1971, and 1972 will not be
an exception.
ADVERTISING INDEX
Following is the index of advertisements. Each item
contains: name and address of the advertiser / name
of the agency, if any / page number where the advertisement appears.
ACM (ASSOCIATION FOR COMPUTING MACHINERY),
1133 Avenue of the Americas, New York, N.Y. 10036/
Corporate Presence, Inc. / Page 39
THE C&A NOTEBOOK ON COMMON SENSE, ELEMENTARY AND ADVANCED, published by Computers and
Automation, 815 Washington St., Newtonville, Mass.
02160 / Pages 6, 7, 8, 9
COMPUTERS AND AUTOMATION, 815 Washington St.,
Newtonville, Mass. 02160 / Page 50
GML CORPORATION, 594 Marrett Rd., Lexington,
Mass. 02173 / Page 52
UN IVE RSITY OF NAI ROBI, P.O.Box 30197, Nairobi,
Kenya / Page 51
50
CONTENTS:
Roster of Organizations in Computers and Data
Processing
Buyers' Guide to Products and Services in
Computers and Data Processing
Geographic Roster of Organizations in Computers and Data Processing
Characteristics of Digital Computers
Roster of Programming Languages, 1972
Over-' 2200 Applications of Computers and Data
Processing
Roster of College and University Computer
Facilities
.
Roster of Main Computer Associations
Roster of Chapters of the Data Processing
Management Association
Roster of Chapters of the Association for
Computing Machinery
Roster of Special Interest Groups and Special
Interest Committees of the Association for
Computing Machinery
Roster of Computer Users' Groups
. . . and much more
PRICE:
• Prepublication price for subscribers to Computers and Automation whose present subscription does not include the Directory
(magazine address label is marked *N)
• • • • $9.00
• Special prepublication price for
non-subscribers • . . . . . • • . • • $12.00
(After publication, price to .
non-subscribers is $14.50)
• The Directory is included in the $18.50 full
annual subscription (13 issues) to Computers and Automation (magazine address
label is marked *D)
Send prepaid orders to:
cDrnI;!,H~!!!:i!
815 Washington Street
Newtonville, Mass. 02160
If not satisfactory, the DIRECTORY is returnable in
seven days for full refund.
COMPUTERS AND AUTOMATION for July, 1972
UNIVERSITY OF NAIROBI
•
KENYA -- openings
LECTURERS -- COMPUTING CENTRE
Four Positions
Applications are invited for the following posts:AC/4/91/72
LECTURER (4 POSTS) - COMPUTING CENTRE
c'
The lecturers are to give courses and advice to computer
users 011 programming and the applications of computer
methods in research. They should have had experience
in at least two of the following languages: PLAN, FORTRAN, ALGOL and COBOL. They should be versed in
one of the following fields of Computer application: Linear Programming, Simulation, Statistical Analysis.
ments are for tours each of two years, renewable, and
include passage for up to 5 adults on appointment, on
termination, and between tours.
Applicants should hold a degree which includes subjects
in Computer Science, and a higher degree in Computer
Science, or should have several years of equivalent experience.
An applicant should give the names and addresses of
three academic references, and at the same time request those persons to forward promptly their recommendations in regard to him to the Registrar.
The Central University computing facilities are based on
ICL 1902 system.
Applications should be made in writing, 6 copies, and
give full details in regard to age, marital status, educational
qualifications including subjects and degrees, experience,
and present employment; and should be addressed to:-
Salary Range: K£ 1500 + £84, £2256 + £108, £2580
per annum.
Applicants from government or parastatal organizations
should forward their applications through the heads of
their departments.
The Registrar,
University of Nairobi,
P.O. Box 30197
NAIROBI,
Kenya.
Terms of service include membership in: a senior staff
annuity fund or F.S.S.U.; a non-contributory Medical
Scheme; and a generous housing allowance or in case of
contract staff, subsidized housing. Expatriate appointI
Applications should reach the
t
COMPUTERS and AUTOMATION for July, 1972
R~gistrar
not later than 15th August, 1972.
51
A Quick,Easy, Fingertip Reference
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GML CORPORATION
Publishers of Computer Display Review
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