Paper CPA F1.1 BUSINESS MATHEMATICS & QUANTITATIVE METHODS Revision Guide
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LOSSARY 
CPA  
Certified Public Accountant Examination 
Stage:    Foundation F1.1    
Subject Title:   Business Mathematics &    
     Quantitative Methods  
Revision Guide 
LOSSARY 
INSIDE COVER - BLANK 
Page 2 
CONTENTS 
Title   
Page 
Study Techniques 
3 
Examination Techniques 
4 
Assessment Strategy 
9 
Learning Resources 
10 
Sample Questions and Solutions 
11 
Page 3 
BLANK

Page 4 
STUDY TECHNIQUE 
What is the best way to manage my time? 
•  Identify all available free time between now and the examinations. 
•  Prepare a revision timetable with a list of “must do” activities. 
•  Remember to take a break (approx 10 minutes) after periods of 
intense study.  
What areas should I revise? 
•  Rank your competence from Low to Medium to High for each topic. 
•  Allocate the least amount of time to topics ranked as high. 
•  Allocate between 25% - 50% of time for medium competence.  
•  Allocate up to 50% of time for low competence.  
How do I prevent myself veering off-track? 
•  Introduce variety to your revision schedule.  
•  Change from one subject to another during the course of the day. 
•  Stick to your revision timetable to avoid spending too much time on one topic. 
Are study groups a good idea? 
•  Yes, great learning happens in groups. 
•  Organise a study group with 4 – 6 people. 
•  Invite classmates of different strengths so that you can learn from one another. 
•  Share your notes to identify any gaps. 
Page 5 
EXAMINATION TECHNIQUES 
INTRODUCTION  
Solving and dealing with problems is an essential part of learning, thinking and intelligence. 
A career in accounting will require you to deal with many problems.  
In order to prepare you for this important task, professional accounting bodies are placing 
greater emphasis on problem solving as part of their examination process. 
 In exams, some problems we face are relatively straightforward, and you will be able to deal 
with them directly and quickly. However, some issues are more complex and you will need to 
work around the problem before you can either solve it or deal with it in some other way.  
The purpose of this article is to help students to deal with problems in an exam setting. To 
achieve this, the remaining parts of the article contain the following sections:  
• Preliminary issues  
• An approach to dealing with and solving problems  
• Conclusion.  
Preliminaries  
The first problem that you must deal with is your reaction to exam questions.  
When presented with an exam paper, most students will quickly read through the questions 
and then many will … PANIC!  
Assuming that you have done a reasonable amount of work beforehand, you shouldn’t be 
overly concerned about this reaction. It is both natural and essential. It is natural to panic in 
stressful situations because that is how the brain is programmed.  
Archaeologists have estimated that humans have inhabited earth for over 200,000 years. For 
most of this time, we have been hunters, gatherers and protectors.  
In order to survive on this planet we had to be good at spotting unusual items, because any 
strange occurrence in our immediate vicinity probably meant the presence of danger. The 
brain’s natural reaction to sensing any extraordinary item is to prepare the body for ‘fight or 
flight’. Unfortunately, neither reaction is appropriate in an exam setting.  
The good news is that if you have spotted something unusual in the exam question, you have 
completed the first step in dealing with the problem: its identification. Students may wish to 
use various relaxation techniques in order to control the effects of the brain’s extreme 
reaction to the unforeseen items that will occur in all examination questions. 
Page 6 
However, you should also be reassured that once you have identified the unusual item, you 
can now prepare yourself for dealing with this, and other problems, contained in the exam 
paper.  
A Suggested Approach for Solving and Dealing with Problems in Exams.  
The main stages in the suggested approach are:  
1. Identify the Problem  
2. Define the Problem  
3. Find and Implement a Solution  
4. Review  
1. Identify the Problem  
As discussed in the previous section, there is a natural tendency to panic when faced with 
unusual items. We suggest the following approach for the preliminary stage of solving and 
dealing with problems in exams:  
Scan through the exam question  
You should expect to find problem areas and that your body will react to these items.  
PANIC!!  
Remember that this is both natural and essential.  
Pause  
Take deep breaths or whatever it takes to help your mind and body to calm down.  
Try not to exhale too loudly – you will only distract other students!  
Do something practical 
Look at the question requirements.  
Note the items that are essential and are worth the most marks.  
Start your solution by neatly putting in the question number and labelling each part of your 
answer in accordance with the stated requirements.  
Actively reread the question  
Underline (or highlight) important items that refer to the question requirements. Tick or 
otherwise indicate the issues that you are familiar with. Put a circle around unusual items that 
will require further consideration.  
Page 7 
2. Define the Problem  
Having dealt with the preliminary issues outlined above, you have already made a good start 
by identifying the problem areas. Before you attempt to solve the problem, you should make 
sure that the problem is properly defined. This may take only a few seconds, but will be time 
well spent. In order to make sure that the problem is properly defined you should refer back 
to the question requirements. This is worth repeating: Every year, Examiner Reports note that 
students fail to pass exams because they do not answer the question asked. Examiners have a 
marking scheme and they can only award marks for solutions that deal with the issues as 
stipulated in the question requirements. Anything else is a waste of time. After you have re-
read the question requirements ask yourself these questions in relation to the problem areas 
that you have identified:  
Is this item essential in order to answer the question?  
Remember that occasionally, examiners will put ‘red herrings’ (irrelevant issues) into the 
question in order to test your knowledge of a topic.  
What’s it worth?  
Figure out approximately how many marks the problem item is worth. This will help you to 
allocate the appropriate amount of time to this issue.  
Can I break it down into smaller parts?  
In many cases, significant problems can be broken down into its component parts. Some parts 
of the problem might be easy to solve.  
Can I ignore this item (at least temporarily)?  
Obviously, you don’t want to do this very often, but it can be a useful strategy for problems 
that cannot be solved immediately. 
Note that if you leave something out, you should leave space in the solution to put in the 
answer at a later stage. There are a number of possible advantages to be gained from this 
approach:  
1) It will allow you to make progress and complete other parts of the question that you are 
familiar with. This means that you will gain marks rather than fretting over something 
that your mind is not ready to deal with yet.  
2) As you are working on the tasks that you are familiar with, your mind will relax and you 
may remember how to deal with the problem area.  
3) When you complete parts of the answer, it may become apparent how to fill in the 
missing pieces of information. Many accounting questions are like jigsaw puzzles: when 
Page 8 
you put in some of the parts that fit together, it is easier to see where the missing pieces 
should go and what they look like.  
3. Find and Implement a Solution  
In many cases, after identifying and defining the problem, it will be easy to deal with the 
issue and to move on to the next part of the question. However, for complex problems that 
are worth significant marks, you will have to spend more time working on the issue in order 
to deal with the problem. When this happens, you should follow these steps:  
Map out the problem  
Depending on your preferred learning style, you can do this in a variety of ways including 
diagrams, tables, pictures, sentences, bullet points or any combination of methods. It is best 
to do this in a working on a separate page (not on the exam paper) because some of this work 
will earn marks. Neat and clearly referenced workings will illustrate to the examiner that you 
have a systematic approach to answering the question.  
Summarise what you know about the problem  
Make sure that this is brief and that it relates to the question requirements. Put this 
information into the working where you have mapped out the problem. Be succinct and 
relevant. The information can be based on data contained in the question and your own 
knowledge and experience. Don’t spend too long at this stage, but complete your workings as 
neatly as possible because this will maximise the marks you will be awarded.  
Consider alternative solutions  
Review your workings and compare this information to the question requirements. Complete 
as much of the solution as you can. Make sure it is in the format as stipulated in the question 
requirements. Consider different ways of solving the problem and try to eliminate at least one 
alternative.  
Implement a solution  
Go with your instinct and write in your solution. Leave extra space on the page for a change 
of mind and/or supplementary information. Make sure the solution refers to your workings 
that have been numbered.  
4. Review  
After dealing with each problem and question, you should spend a short while reviewing your 
solution. The temptation is to rush onto the next question, but a few moments spent in 
Page 9 
reviewing your solution can help you to gain many marks. There are three questions to ask 
yourself here:  
Have I met the question requirements?  
Yes, we have mentioned this already. Examiner Reports over the years advise that failure to 
follow the instructions provided in the question requirements is a significant factor in causing 
students to lose marks. For instance, easy marks can be gained by putting your answer in the 
correct format. This could be in the form of a report or memo or whatever is asked in the 
question. Likewise, look carefully at the time period requested. The standard accounting 
period is 12 months, but occasionally examiners will specify a different accounting period.  
Is my solution reasonable?  
Look at the figures in your solution. How do they compare relative to the size of the figures 
provided in the question?  
For example, if Revenue were 750,000 and your Net Profit figure was more than 1 million, 
then clearly this is worth checking.  
If there were some extraordinary events it is possible for this to be correct, but more than 
likely, you have misread a figure from your calculator. Likewise, the depreciation expense 
should be a fraction of the value of the fixed assets.  
What have I learned?  
Very often in exams, different parts of the solution are interlinked. An answer from one of 
your workings can frequently be used in another part of the solution. The method used to 
figure out an answer may also be applicable to other parts of your solution.  
Conclusion  
In order to pass your exams you will have to solve many problems. The first problem to 
overcome is your reaction to unusual items. You must expect problems to arise in exams and 
be prepared to deal with them in a systematic manner. John Foster Dulles, a former US 
Secretary of State noted that: The measure of success is not whether you have a tough 
problem to deal with, but whether it is the same problem you had last year. We hope that, by 
applying the principles outlined in this article, you will be successful in your examinations 
and that you can move on to solve and deal with new problems. 
Page 10 
Stage: Foundation 1 
Subject Title: F1.1 Business Mathematics and Quantitative 
Methods 
Examination Duration: 3 Hours 
Assessment Strategy 
Examination Approach 
This subject deals with the collection and organisation of key business facts into meaningful 
data and the presentation and analysis of this data into useful information.  Questions are 
framed in a business context, with each question having a number of sub-sections.  The first 
sub-section may require quantitative analysis, while others may require qualitative analysis, 
that is, to provide an interpretation of the quantitative data. 
Examination Format 
The examination is unseen, closed 
book and 3 hours’ in duration. 
Students are required to answer 5 
questions out of 6. 
Marks Allocation 
Each question carries 20 marks The 
total for the paper is 100 marks. 
Learning Resources 
Core Texts 
Curwin and Slater / Quantitative Methods for 
Business Decisions, 6th Edition / Cengage 
(2008) ISBN 1844805743 
Clare Morris / Quantitative Approaches in 
Business Studies, 7th Edition / Pearson 
Education (2010) ISBN 027379417 
Donald Waters / Quantitative Methods for 
Business, 4th Edition / Pearson Education 
(2007) ISBN 0273694588. 
For greater depth on statistics, the following is 
recommended: 
W.M. Harper / Statistics, 6th Edition / Pearson 
Education / ISBN 0273634267. 
Manuals 
Institute of Certified Public Accountants of Rwanda – F1.1 Business Mathematics & 
Quantitative Methods 

Page 11 
Supplementary Texts and 
Journals 
Les Oakshott / Essential Quantitative Methods for 
Business, Management and Finance, 4th Edition/ 
/Palgrave (2009)/ ISBN 9780230218185. 
Lucy T. / Quantitative Techniques 6th ed. / 
Continuum Publications (2002) / ISBN 
0826458548. 
Wisniewski M. / Quantitative Methods for 
Decision Makers 5th ed / Pearson 2009 / ISBN 
9780273712077 / ISBN 0273712071. 
Buglear J. / Quantitative Methods for Business 
Elsevier (2004) / ISBN 0750658983. 
Buglear J. / Stats Means Business / Butterworth 
Heinemann (2001) / ISBN 0750653647. 
Soper J. / Mathematics for Economics and 
Business / Blackwell (2004) / ISBN 
1405111275. 
Useful Websites 
(as at date of publication) 
http://www.icparwanda.com/services.php 
http://ubalt.edu/ntsbarsh/Businessstat/ 
opre504.htm - Professor Hossein Arsham’s, 
(FOR, FRSS, FWIF), Statistical Thinking for 
Managerial Decisions. 

Page 12 
REVISION QUESTIONS AND 
SOLUTIONS 
Stage:        Foundation F1.1 
Subject Title:   Business Mathematics 
& Quantitative 
Page 13 
QUESTION 1 
     Two companies have provided tenders for the replacement of production machines for DIY Ltd.     
   Machine 1 will cost 
RWF
25,000 and Machine 2 will cost 
RWF
20,000. The financial     
  accountant estimates that the other cash flows for the machines over their four year lifetime  
   will be: 
   Cash inflows (
RWF
) 
                                       Year 1              Year 2              Year 3            Year 4 
   Machine 1                      18,000  22,000               12,000             8,500 
   Machine 2                      10,000  12,000               16,000           17,000
Cash outflows (
RWF
) 
                        Year 1              Year 2              Year 3            Year 4                        
Machine                     9,000                 12,000           3,000         3,000 
Machine 2                    7,000                 10,000           3,500         3,500 
The loan rate charged by the bank is 14%. You may assume that the chosen machine is paid 
for upon delivery on site (purchased now) and the other cash flows will occur at the end of 
the year. 
REQUIRED: 
(a) Set out the net cash flows for each machine.                                                            (4 Marks)  
(b) Derive the Net Present Value for each machine.                                                      (6 Marks)  
(c) Based on your analysis advise the company which machine to purchase.               (4 Marks)  
(d) The supplier of Machine 1 has now offered to  modify its payment terms. Instead of   
requiring an initial  payment  of 
RWF
25,000,  they  will accept an initial  payment  of  
RWF
15,000 with the balance of 
RWF
10,000 payable in year 1. Which machine would 
you now advise the company to purchase? Support your answer with relevant calculations. 
           (6 Marks) 
 [Total: 20 Marks] 
Page 14 
Page 15 
 QUESTION 2 
 To  demonstrate that it is  providing  loans  to small  companies,  the  GV  bank  provided  the 
following data.  This data summarises the number and level of loans to companies in both Kigali 
and Butare. 
 Loans (
RWF
000s) Number of Companies 
Kigali  Butare 
24  <  28  8  19 
28  <  32  41  36 
32  <  36  77  47 
36  <  40  90  58 
40  <  44  58  27 
44  <  48  26  13 
 REQUIRED: 
 (a)  Compare the mean loan and standard deviation for both Kigali and Butare.   
             (10 marks) 
(b)  Derive the co-efficient of variation for both regions.                                               (6 marks)  
(c)  Explain the principles underpinning the calculations in (a) and (b) above.
(4 marks)  
    [Total: 20 Marks] 
 QUESTION 3 
  The local supermarket recently received a consignment of cereals from the national distributor. 
The management accountant believed that the consignment is incorrectly packed and randomly 
selected 49  bags to be sampled. The mean  weight  was  found  to be  42.4kgs  with a standard 
deviation  of  4kgs. According to  the  distributor,  the  bags should  have  had a mean  weight  of 
40kgs. 
 REQUIRED: 
 (a) Calculate the range of weights with a 95% confidence level.                      (10 Marks) 
(b) Test if the population mean is greater than 40kg with a 95% confidence level. 
 (10 marks) 
 [Total: 20 Marks] 

Page 16 
 QUESTION 4 
 The SME  company  wishes to establish  a  relationship  between  the  costs  of  production and 
the  output  of  the company. The  following data,  on  units  of  output  and total costs,  has been 
collected over the last eight quarters: 
Quarter Output (units)     Cost 
RWF
1 
2 
3 
4 
5 
6 
7 
8 
10,000 
20,000 
40,000 
25,000 
30,000 
40,000 
50,000 
45,000 
32,000 
39,000 
58,000 
44,000 
52,000 
61,000 
70,000 
64,000 
 REQUIRED: 
 (a) Using linear regression analysis, derive the relationship between the variables.     (10 Marks) 
 (b) Interpret the equation in terms of both fixed and variable costs of production.  (6 Marks) 
 (c) Forecast the costs that should be incurred at an output level of 55,000 units              (4 Marks) 
           [Total: 20 Marks]   
QUESTION 5 
(a) Your  company  is purchasing a Systems  102  shredder  for 
RWF
12,000.  Estimate  the 
equal annual payments, if the machine is being purchased with a 5 year loan compounded 
annually at 14%.     (6 Marks) 
(b)   You  wish to  purchase  a  forklift  for  your  business. Your  bank  quotes  you  an annual 
percentage  rate (APR)  of  interest  of  15%  on  a  loan  of 
RWF
20,000  over  4  years. 
Calculate the total interest paid. Assume that the interest is paid at the end of each year.   
 (6 Marks) 
(c) Your company’s internal auditors have examined the debtors accounts. The data is 
normally distributed with a mean value of 
RWF
3,000  and a standard deviation of 
RWF
500. You consider that 5% of  the  accounts are ‘doubtful’. In this context you are 
asked to determine the probability that, if an account is randomly chosen, its value will be 
between 
RWF
3,200 and 
RWF
3,500. 
Page 17 
   (8 Marks) 
 [Total: 20 Marks] 
QUESTION 6  
 “Time series  data  can  be  used  as  a  basis  for  estimating  both  trend and  seasonal  variation. 
Such estimates can then be used as a basis for forecasting.” 
 In this context: 
 (a) Outline the structure of a time series including trend, seasonal, cyclical and irregular    
   components. 
                                                                                                                                                   (8 Marks) 
(b)    Describe the moving average method for smoothing a time series.                     (6 Marks) 
 (c)    Describe how the time series can be used for forecasting.                                   (6 Marks) 
 [Total: 20 Marks] 
QUESTION 7 
        CPAR Consultants Ltd. is undertaking an analysis of a proposal by Superior Products Ltd. The 
company is investing in a moulding machine at a cost of 
RWF
125
,
000
.
 The machine will last 
for 5 years and will be sold for scrap at the end of year 6 for 
RWF
5
,
000
.
 The machine will 
require regular annual maintenance. At the end of year 1 this will amount to 
RWF
1
,
500  and 
will increase by  20%  each year  until  the  end  of  year  4.  The  revenue  produced  by the 
machine is estimated at 
RWF
30
,
000 at the end of year 1 and this will increase by 10% at the 
end of each year over the life of the machine. 
 As a consultant with CPAR you are required to: 
 (i)   Tabulate the net cash flows for the machine.                                                            (8 Marks) 
(ii)  Establish the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) on the investment.                             (8 Marks) 
(iii) Interpret your result if the overdraft rate provided by the bank is 15%.                  (4 Marks) 
 [Total:  20 Ma
r
ks
]

Page 18 
QUESTION 8      
DIB Ltd. has two divisions with employees doing similar types of work. The data below gives 
the distribution of earnings of a sample of employees from the two divisions. 
Earnings/week 
RWF
Number  of e
m
p
l
o
y
ee
s
Division 
1 
Division 
2 
400 – 420 
420 – 440 
440 – 460 
460 – 480 
480 – 500 
500 – 520 
11 
20 
35 
40 
25 
10 
12 
30 
50 
60 
40 
35 
As the management accountant to the company you are asked to: 
(i)  Calculate the average earnings and standard deviation for employees of both divisions 
  (12 Marks) 
(ii) Determine if there is any significant difference between the earnings in both divisions.   
     Test at the 1% significance level.                                                                                 (8 Marks) 
                                                                           [Total: 20 Ma
r
ks
] 
QUESTION 9  
Fado Ltd is a training company which pays a Government allowance to trainees during various 
stages of training. A recent notice by the Office of the Comptroller General has indicated that the 
company will be subject to an audit in the near future. You have compiled the following data 
from the company records. 
Monthly  
Allowance 
Number  of 
T
r
a
i
n
ee
s
260-280 
280-300 
300-320 
320-340 
340-360 
360-380 
380-400 
400-420 
8 
14 
16 
15 
9 
7 
6 
5 

Page 19 
 In order to prepare for the audit you have been requested by the financial controller to prepare 
a report for the Board. As part of your report you are requested to: 
(i) 
Present the data in a histogram. 
(8 Marks) 
(ii) 
Derive the modal and median allowances paid to trainees. 
(8 Marks) 
(iii) 
Explain your results. 
(4 Marks) 
 [Total:  20 Ma
r
ks]
QUESTION 10      
A company is negotiating with Superior Products Ltd for the supply of batteries for its torches. 
Superior Products needs to plan its production to meet the needs of the torch company. It uses the 
companyʼs quarterly sales figures over the past three years to forecast future demand. 
Y
ea
r
Q1 
Q
2 
Q
3 
Q
4 
2007 
2008 
2009 
350 
450 
550 
285 
420 
530 
197 
325 
415 
390 
460 
615 
 Using this data: 
(i) Derive the trend line equation using linear regression analysis                                (10 Marks) 
(ii) Illustrate the data on a diagram and forecast the demand for the four quarters of 2010     
(10 Marks) 
                         [Total:  20 Ma
r
ks]
QUESTION 11 
As an independent financial adviser you are presented with the following problems from   
clients 
 (i)  The SPP Credit Union has launched a new saving scheme for investors.  If  your client 
invests 
RWF
10
,
000 now and 
RWF
5
,
000 at the end of each year for the next 3 years, 
he will receive 10% in year 1 and 15% in years 2 and 3. Advise your client of the sum 
receivable at the end of year 3 and the overall return on the investment. (6 Marks) 
 (ii) Mr P. Orr has been offered an encashment value of 
RWF
10
,
000 now by the Bank of 
Kigali  on  his  endowment  mortgage. However,  he  estimates that it will mature to 
RWF
13
,
500 in 5 years time applying an interest rate of 4%. Advise Mr P.Orr on the 
best option.  (6 Marks) 
 (iii) “Paulʼs”,  the  local  builderʼs  provider,  consults  you  regarding  the  weights  of  concrete 
provided to construction sites. He believes that the quantities supplied exceed the required 
Page 20 
amounts. He wants to ensure that only 5% of any orders of concrete exceed the standard 
order weight of 1,000kg. The specification of the automatic weighing machine states that 
orders weigh with a standard deviation of 
10kg. Advise Paul on the level that the machines average should be set to, assuming a 
normal distribution. Provide a diagram to support your advice.    (8 Marks) 
     [Total:  20 Ma
r
ks
]
 QUESTION 12   
  You are frequently asked by the financial director to make presentations to the management 
team on modern business concepts. Discuss the following for inclusion in your next 
presentation: 
(i) 
Structure of a time series. 
                                                 (5 Marks) 
(ii) 
Investment Appraisal. 
(5 Marks) 
(iii) 
Network Analysis. 
(5 Marks) 
(iv) 
Measures of dispersion. 
(5 Marks) 
 [Total:  20 Ma
r
ks]

Page 21 
SUGGESTED SOLUTIONS 
 SOLUTION 1 
  (a) and (b)  Cash flows are set out in the table below. 
 Machine 1 
  Year 
Cash Inflows 
Cash Outflows 
Net Cash Flows 
Discount Factor 
Present Value 
-1 
-2 
(1) - (2) 
-14% 
0 
--------- 
-25,000 
-25,000 
1.000 
     -25,000 
1 
18,000 
 - 9,000 
-9,000 
0.877 
        7,893 
2 
22,000 
-12,000 
 10,000 
0.769 
7,690 
3 
12,000 
 -3,000 
9,000 
0.675 
6,075 
4 
8,500
 -3,000 
5,500 
0.592 
3,256 
Net Present Value 
                (86) 
       Machine 
2 
  Year
Cash 
Inflows 
(1) 
Cash Outflows 
(2) 
Net Cash Flows 
(1) - (2) 
Discount Factor 
(14%) 
Present Value 
0 
--------- 
(20,000) 
(20,000) 
1.000 
(20,000) 
1 
10,000 
(7,000) 
3,000 
0.877 
2,631 
2 
12,000 
(10,000) 
2,000 
0.769 
1,538 
3 
16,000 
(3,500) 
12,500 
0.675 
8,438 
4   
17,000 
(3,500) 
13,500 
0.592 
7,992 
Net Present Value 
2 Marks 
599 
3 Marks 

Page 22 
c) The Net Present  Value  for  machine 1 is a net  loss  of 
RWF
86  while machine  2 
provides  a  positive  Net Present  Value  of 
RWF
599.  On this basis machine 2 is more 
financially attractive and should be selected by the company. 
 However,  the  difference between  the  NPV  for  both  machines is small. Machine 1 has larger 
cash inflows during the early  years while machine 2 has larger cash inflows during the latter 
years. The basic  difference between the two proposals  is the initial cost. A more appropriate 
analysis is to derive the internal rate of return which will provide a % return of both proposals 
which can be compared with the rate provided by the bank. (4 Marks) 
  d) Based on the offer of phased payments for Machine  1,  the revised Net Present Value 
for  Machine 1 is a positive 
RWF
1,144. Although  Machine  2  also  provides  a  positive Net 
Present Value of 
RWF
599, it is less positive than Machine 1. On this basis Machine 1 is the 
more financially attractive and should be selected by the company. (4 Marks) 
Year 
Cash Inflows 
Cash Outflows 
Net Cash Flows 
Discount Factor 
Present Value 
-1 
-2 
(1) - (2) 
-14% 
0 
--------- 
-15,000 
-15,000 
1 
-15,000 
1 
18,000 
-19,000 
-1,000 
0.877 
-877 
2 
22,000 
-12,000 
10,000 
0.769 
7,690 
3 
12,000 
-3,000 
9,000 
0.675 
6,075 
4 
8,500 
-3,000 
5,500 
0.592 
3,256 
Net Present Value 
1,144 
    (2 Marks) 
 [Total: 20 Marks] 
 SOLUTION 2 
 (a) The mean loans and standard deviations are calculated below. 
 Kigali Region 
Lower Upper Midpoint No companies fx (x-x) 
f(x-x)
2
Boundary 
Boundary 
(x) 
(f) 
24 
28 
26
8 
208 
-11.03 
973.29 
28 
32 
30 
41 
1230 
-  7.03 
2026.26 

Page 23 
32 
36 
34 
77 
2618 
-  2.03 
156.31 
36 
40 
38 
90 
3420 
0.97 
84.68 
40 
44 
42 
58 
2436 
4.97 
1432.60 
44 
48 
46 
26 
1196 
8.97 
2091.96 
∑ 
300 
6765.10 
 Mean, ͞x =  ∑fx  =  11,108  =  
RWF
37.03                                                                   (2 marks) 
∑f  300 
Standard deviation, σ = √  ∑f(x - x)2              =   √6765.1  =  √ 22.55  =  4.75              (3 marks) 
∑f                  300 
 Butare Region. 
Lower Upper Midpoint No companies Fx (x-x) f(x-x)
2
Boundary 
Boundary 
(x) 
(f) 
24 
28 
26 
19 
494 
-9.54 
1729.22 
28 
32 
30 
36 
1080 
- 5.54 
1104.89 
32 
36 
34 
47 
1598 
- 1.54 
111.47 
36 
40 
38 
58 
2204 
2.46 
350.99 
40 
44 
42 
27 
1134 
6.46 
1126.75 
44 
48 
46 
13 
598 
10.46 
1422.35 
∑ 
200 
7108 
5845.67 
 Mean, ͞x  =  ∑fx  = 7,108  =  
RWF
35.54                                                                      (2 marks) 
∑f  200 
Standard deviation, σ = √  ∑f(x - ͞x)2              =   √5845.7  =  √ 29.22  =  5.40              (3 marks) 
∑f                 200 
  (b) Co-efficient of variation. This measures the relative dispersion between distributions and is 
         derived from  σ .  
                               x 
 Using this co-efficient gives: 
Kigali:  4.75  x  100  =   12.83%; Butare: 
5.40 
 x  100  =  15.19% 
37.03 
(3 marks) 
35.54 
(3 marks) 
  (c) From  observations  of  the data from  both  series it is clear that  the  relative dispersion 
between  the  distributions is  not  wide.  This calculation is more  appropriate where there is 
substantial difference between the means of the distributions. The co-efficient is a measure that 
enables us to quantify the relative dispersion.        (4 marks) 
 [Total: 20 Marks] 

Page 24 
SOLUTION 3 
 (a) Establish  the  hypothesis  that  the  population  mean  weight, µ, is  40kgs,  that  is,  the  Null 
Hypothesis (Ho). This means that we are assuming that there is no difference between the mean 
and  the  sample mean and that  any  difference can  be  ascribed to chance.  The Alternative 
Hypothesis (H1) can be stated that the population mean does not equal 40kg. 
Ho:   µ = 40kg 
H1:   µ ≠ 40kg                                                                                    (2 marks) 
 If Ho is found to be true H1 is rejected while if Ho is found to be false, H1 is accepted. With a 
95% confidence level the sample mean must lie within ± 1.96 standard errors (the acceptance 
zone),  so that, if Ho is  true, 95% of the means of all samples must be within the range µ ± 
1.96sx where sx is the standard error, that is, sx =  σ/√n. (2 marks) 
Therefore,  sx =  4/√49  =  0.57. 
 The range is   40 ± 1.96 x 0.57, that is, 38.88kgs to 41.12kgs                                         (2 marks) 
 or the z-score [(x – µ)/sx = (42.4 -40)/0.57 = 4.21] must fall outside ± 1.96 
 As the sample mean of 42.4kg falls outside the acceptance zone the null hypothesis is rejected 
and H1 is accepted,  that  is,  µ ≠ 40kg. The  difference between  the  population  and sample 
means is significant at the 5% level.                                                                             (4 marks) 
  (b) In this test it is necessary to test if the population mean is greater than the assumed 
value of 40kgs, that is, 
Ho:  µ = 40kgs;  H1: µ > 40kgs.                                                                                      (4 marks)  
This is a one tailed test where the number of standard errors at the 5% level is 1.65. Since the 
calculated z score is 4.21 and is outside the 5% value the Null Hypothesis is rejected.  
                                                                                                                                          (2 marks)  
It can therefore be stated that the population mean is greater than 40kgs.                     (2 marks)  
The analysis is shown in the diagram for a two tailed test. 

Page 25 
 (2 marks) 
 [Total: 20 Marks] 

Page 26 
SOLUTION 4 
To determine the relationship between the variables, and the regression line Y  =  a  +  bX,  we 
solve the following equations 
 ∑Y  =  na  +  b∑X 
∑XY =  a∑X  +  b∑X2   or  substitute the above values into the following        (2 Marks) 
   b  =  ∑XY  -   ∑X x ∑Y 
               n 
∑X2              - (∑X)
2
        n 
      a  =  ∑Y -  b∑X 
      n          n 
             X (000’s)       Y (000’s)             XY          X 
  10                  32               320           100 
  20                  39               750           400 
  40                  58              2320        1600 
  25                  44              1100          625 
  30                  52              1560          900 
  40                  61              2440        1600 
  50                  70              3500        2500 
  45                  64              2880        2025 
  260                420            14900        9750 
Quarter 
 Output (units) 
 Total Cost RWF  
1 
10,000 
32,000 
2 
20,000 
39,000 
3 
40,000 
58,000 
4 
25,000 
44,000 
5 
30,000 
52,000 
6 
40,000 
61,000 
7 
50,000 
70,000 
8 
45,000 
64,000 

Page 27 
Therefore,  b  =  14900  -  260 x 420/8   =   14900  -  13650 
                                               9500  -  (260)/8  9750   -   8450 
 =   1250/1300 
=   0.9615                                                                                            (2 Marks) 
 a  =   420/8   -   0.9615 x 260/8 
=   52.5   -   31.25 
=   21.25                                                                                              (2 Marks) 
 Y  =   21,250  +  0.962X                                                                          (4 Marks) 

Page 28 
(b) Total Cost  =  Fixed cost  +  Variable cost per unit of production.                      (2 marks) 
 In the above  equation  the  fixed cost is 
RWF
21,250;  this cost is  independent  of  the 
level  of  production. X represents the variable cost of production i.e. for each unit increase in 
production  the  costs increases  by  a  factor of  0.962.  At  some  stage during  the  production 
process the variable cost profile will intersect the fixed cost to give the breakeven value. The 
sum of the fixed and variable costs gives the total cost profile. (4 marks) 
 (c) The projected cost at 55,000 units: At output levels of 55,000 units, the likely incurred    
costs are: 
  Y   =   RWF21,250 + 0.962X 1,250 
                 (2 marks) 
=  RWF21,250  + 0.962 (55,000)  =  RWF52,910 
This projection is outside the boundaries of the relationship and the accuracy is predicated on 
the principle that the linear relationship will continue. On the assumption that the linearity of 
the relationship continues, the extrapolated figure can be accepted as being relatively accurate. 
     (2 marks) 
 [Total: 20 Marks] 
SOLUTION 5 
(a) In this case  we  are talking  about  an amortisation annuity  over  the  5  years,  that  is,  the 
amount  borrowed (
RWF
12,000) is equal to the present value of the annual payments (say 
A) over the 5 years at the interest rate of 14%. 
RWF
12,000  =      A  +  A  +     A +   A     +      A 
1.14         (1.14)2       (1.14)3    (1.14)4      (1.14)5    
(3 Marks) 
 =  A (0.8772  +  0.7695  +  0.6749  +  0.5921  +  0.5194) 
 =  A (3.4331) 
 Therefore,  A  = 
RWF
12,000 =   
RWF
3,495.                                               (3 Marks) 
    3.4331 
Page 29 
 (b) The interest will  be  compounded  over  the  four  years.  The  compound  interest is 
derived as follows (the total cost at the end of four years less the initial cost equals the interest 
paid) 
 CI = P(1  +  i)t  - P,  where I = 15%, P =  
RWF
20,000, t = 4.                                   (3 Marks) 
 Therefore, CI  =  20,000(1 + 0.15)4  -  20,000 
    =     20,000 x 1.749  - 20,000 
 =     34,980  -  20,000  =  RWF14,980 
     (3 Marks) 
 (c) Probability of more than 
RWF
3,200 is given by  
   Z    =  (3200 -  3000)/500 
     =  0.4 
The probability is 0.3446 from the Normal distribution tables.                                     (3 Marks)  
Probability of more than 
RWF
3500 is given by 
Z  =  (3500  -  3000)/500 
 =  1.00 
The probability is 0.1587 from the Normal distribution tables.                                     (3 Marks)  
Therefore, probability is within the range 3200 to 3500, that is, 0.3446 – 0.1587, i.e. 0.1859.   
(2 Marks)  
       [Total: 20 Marks] 
Page 30 
SOLUTION 6 
 (a) Structure of a time series. 
 A time is a set of results for a particular variable of interest taken over a period of time. There are 
four separate elements to consider 
 -  Trend  component:  in a set  of  time series data  the  measurements are taken at regular 
intervals. However, there may be random fluctuations in the data but in some cases the 
data will show  a  shift to lower or higher values over the time period in question. This 
movement is called the trend and is usually the result of some long term factors such as 
changes in expenditure, output, etc. There may be various trend patterns such as increasing 
linear trends, decreasing linear trend, non-linear trend or no trend.  
(2 Marks) 
 -  Cyclical component: a time series may show a trend of some sort but may also show a 
cyclical pattern of alternative sequences of observation above and below the trend line. 
This moves from the medium to longer term around the trend line. Any pattern of this 
type which lasts longer than a year is called a cyclical element for the time series. This is 
generally a very common occurrence. (2 Marks) 
 -  Seasonal component: there may be a pattern of variability in regular cycles within a year. 
The element of the  time series which represents  variability  due  to seasonal influences 
is called  the  seasonal element. It normally refers to movements over a one year period 
but it can also refer to any repeating pattern of less than one-year’s duration (2 Marks) 
 -  Irregular  component:  this is  the  element which  cannot  be  explained  by  the  trend, 
cyclical and/or seasonal elements and is entirely unpredictable. It represents the random 
variability in the time series, caused  by  unanticipated  and  non-recurring  factors which 
are unpredictable. It gives a dramatic and unexpected departure from trend. (2 Marks) 
    (b) Use of the moving average method for smoothing. 
 Smoothing methods are used to smooth out the irregular element of time series where there are 
no significant trends, cyclical or seasonal pattern. 
 Moving  average:  this  method  involves  using  the  average  of  the  most  recent data  values to 
forecast the next period. The number of data values used can be selected in order to minimise 
the forecasting error. To find the moving  average,  the  simple  average  for  a  specified  number 
of items of data is found. For example, with quarterly data a simple average for four items of 
data can be calculated and then  move that average along. This is  done  by  recalculating  the 
average  having dropped  the  initial item of  data and adding  a  subsequent item of data. This 
gives  the  four  quarter  moving  total. The  moving  totals  fall in between  the  actual  quarterly 
data, that is, the first moving total falls between quarters 2 and 3. The respective four quarter 
Page 31 
moving totals are divided by 4 to find the four quarter moving average. The data is centred by 
summing respective pairs of data and dividing by two. This smooths the data so that the trend 
line can be  derived. In this way moving averages are used to ‘smooth out’ fluctuations in the 
data and obtain a trend line. This is the moving average trend which can  be  plotted to show 
the direction. Since  the  trend  does  not  vary significantly in short  time periods the trend can 
be projected to forecast future events. 
 However, there are limitations to the use of moving averages. Equal weighting is given to each 
of  the  values used in the moving average  calculation whereas  the  most  recent data is more 
relevant to current conditions. The moving average takes no account of data outside the period 
of average so full use is not made of all the data. The use of the unadjusted moving average as a 
forecast can cause misleading results when there is an underlying seasonal variation. 
(6 Marks) 
 (c) Use of a time series for forecasting. 
 Forecasting from the time series lies in our knowledge of the behaviour of trend. Since the trend 
does not vary significantly in short time periods, the trend can be projected to forecast future 
events. A time series can be used  to  forecast where there are  no  significant trends,  cyclical 
or  seasonal  elements  using  the  moving averages  method  as set  out  above. Using  moving 
averages, to get an accurate projection of trend without plotting the values, it is necessary to 
derive the average rate of change of the trend. This can be done by deducting the first value 
of  the  trend from  the  last trend  value,  taking  the  average (less one) and  adding  to the last 
trend value. This can be done for a number of values to forecast for a number of periods into 
the future. This is the moving average trend which can be plotted to show the direction. The trend 
can  be  projected  forward.  However,  the  further  the  trend is projected  the  greater is  the 
possibility of inaccuracy. 
 However, if there are both trend and seasonal elements in the series there are other methods 
which may be used. The first stage in such a forecasting technique is to calculate the seasonal 
factors by smoothing out  the time series using the moving averages  method. If  the seasonal 
factors are quarterly then the moving average is calculate on groups of four data points. When 
seasonal elements are involved it is necessary to work out the centred moving averages which 
are  averages  of  the  moving  averages.  Dividing  the  original  observation  by  the  equivalent 
centred  moving  average  gives a seasonal  factor  for each  observation. This is  done  for  all 
quarters. 
 If the time series shows a long term linear trend, linear regression may be  used. A linear 
regression  equation linking  dependent  and  independent  variables can  be  derived  but  this 
assumes that we have a linear trend and that the future will be like the past. (6 Marks) 
 [Total: 20 Marks] 

Page 32 
SOLUTION 7 
   1.  (i) Cash Flows for the proposal. 
Year 
E
nd
Ma
c
h
i
n
e 
Cost  
RWF
Ma
i
n
t
e
n
a
n
c
e 
Cost  
RWF
Re
v
e
nu
e 
Net Ca
s
h
Flows  
RWF
0 125,000 
(125,000) 
1 
(1,500) 30,000 28,500 
2 
(1,800) 33,000 31,200 
3 
(2,160) 36,300 34,140 
4 
(2,592) 39,930 37,338 
5 
43,923 43,923 
6 5
,
000 
5
,
000 
 (2 Marks)            (2 Marks)              (2 Marks)           (2 Marks) 
 (ii) Calculation of the Internal Rate of Return. To calculate the IRR it is necessary to derive present 
values. Taking discount values at 14% and 20% the following table is developed. 
Y
ea
r
Net Cash 
F
l
o
w
s
RWF
Discount 
F
a
c
t
o
r
@ 12% 
PV 
RWF
Discount 
F
a
c
t
o
r
@ 18% 
PV  
RWF
0 (125,000) 1
.
000 (125,000) 1
.
000 (125,000) 
1 28,500 0
.
893 25,450.5 0
.
847 24,139.5 
2 31,200 0
.
797 24,866.4 0
.
718 22,401.6 
3 34,140 0
.
712 24,307.7 0
.
609 20,791.3 
4 37,338 0
.
636 23,747.0 0
.
516 19,266.4 
5 43,923 0.567 24,904.3 0.437 19,194.4 
6 5
,
000 0.507 2,535.0 0
.
370 1,850.0 
NPV 
810.9 
(17,356) 
   (2 Marks)                                         (2 
Marks)
 The IRR can be derived by calculation or graphically. Using the formula 
 N1I2    -  N2I1  ,  where discount rate I1  gives NPV N1  and discount rate I2  gives NPV  N2 
N1    -  N2 
 N1    =  
RWF
810
.
9
,
  I1    =  12%;  N2    =  (
RWF
17
,
356)
,
  I2    =  18% 

Page 33 
IRR  =  810.9 x 0.18 -  (17,356) x 0.12  =  2,229  =  12.3% 
810.9  -  (17,356)  18,167 
   (4 Marks) 

Page 34 
(iii)    Interpretation of  the result.   The value of 12.2%  can  be interpreted as the  rate of 
return that  the  project will earn. On face value  the  NPV is  positive  at  12%  and this 
represents a positive result. However, if the cost of capital to the company, represented by 
the rate of interest charged by the bank of 15%, is greater than this value, the project is not 
viable. However, there are mechanisms for deriving the real cost of capital to the company 
based  on  its  equity  and  funds  which may  not  be  representative  of  the  bank  rates. The 
decision of the company in this case is that the project, as a stand alone investment, will not 
contribute the required return. (4 Marks) 
 [Total:  20 Ma
r
ks
]
 SOLUTION 8 
(i) The average earnings and standard deviations for employees in both divisions. 
 Division 1 
Lower 
Bound
a
r
y
 Upper 
Bound
a
r
y
F
r
e
q
f
 Mid 
point  
(
x
) 
F
x
f
x
2 
400 
420 
440 
460 
480 
500 
420 
440 
460 
480 
500 
520 
11 
20 
35 
40 
25 
10 
410 
430 
450 
470 
490 
510 
4
,
510 
8
,
600 
15
,
750 
18
,
800 
12
,
250 
5
,
100 
1,849,100 
3,698,000 
7,087,500 
8,836,000 
6,002,500 
2,601,000 
∑
141 
65,010 
30,074,100 
 Mean  =  x  =   ∑fx   =   65,010  =  
RWF
461
.
1                                                                    (3 Marks) 
∑f  141 
             Standard Deviation   
σ =   √ ∑ fx 2 – {∑ fx}2      =  √ 3,074,100 – 212,578 
∑ f {∑ f }      141 
 =  √ 731       =         RWF26.71                                      (3 Marks) 
Division 2 
Lower 
Bound
a
r
y
Upper 
Bound
a
r
y
F
r
e
q
f
Mid point  (
x
) 
F
x
f
x
2
400 
420 
440 
460 
480 
500 
420 
440 
460 
480 
500 
520 
12 
30 
50 
60 
40 
35 
410 
430 
450 
470 
490 
510 
4
,
920 
12
,
900 
22
,
500 
28
,
200 
19
,
600 
17
,
850 
2
,
017
,
200 
5
,
547
,
000 
10
,
125
,
000 
13
,
254
,
000 
9
,
604
,
000 
9103
,
500 

Page 35 
∑
227 
105,970 
49,650,700 
 Mean  =  x  =   ∑fx =   105,970  =  
RWF
466
.
8                                                   (3 Marks) 
∑f  227 
Standard Deviation. 
σ =   √ ∑ fx2  – {∑ fx}2   =  √ 49,650,700 – 217,928 
∑ f  {∑ f }  227 
 =  √ 797  = 
RWF
28
.
23            (3 Marks) 
 Summary 
Division 
1         
Division 
2 
 Mean                           
RWF
461
.
1          
RWF
466
.
8 
 Std Deviation              
RWF
26
.
71          
RWF
28
.
23 
  Number  141                    227 
(ii)     In order to test if there is a difference in the earnings between both divisions a hypothesis 
can be used. In this case we are testing for the difference of means in a similar way as confidence 
intervals for  the  difference of means. The  difference between  the  sample estimates is first 
calculated and the values given by the null hypothesis, transform the difference to a number of 
standard errors, then compare with a critical value consistent with the alternative hypothesis. In 
this way we are comparing if the two sample means have come from the same population, 
i.e. Null Hypothesis, Ho:  µ1  = µ2    and the alternative hypothesis 
H1:  µ1  ≠ µ2                                                                                                                                                                          (4 Marks) 
This is a two sided test.  In this particular test we are assuming H0 to be correct. 
 The Z statistic is       X1    -  X2    ,  that is, the difference in means divided by the standard error 
          √S
12 + 
S
22
              N1           N2 
X1    -  X2      =  461.1  -  466.8  =  - 5.7 
2 
S
1 
2 
=  26
.
71 
2 
=  5.06; 
S
2 
2 
=  28
.
23 =  3.51; 
N1   141  N2   227 
Z  =    -5.7   =   - 1.94                                                                                (4 Marks) 
√8.57 
Z, at 1% significance level, is  2.58. 
 Since the calculated value is less than this level we accept the null hypothesis – the samples do 
not provide evidence that there is a difference in the long-run earnings of employees. 
Page 36 
 [Total:  20 Ma
r
ks
] 

Page 37 
SOLUTION 9 
 (i) Histogram of the data. 
Monthly Allowance rwf 
Number of Trainees (f) 
Cumulative Frequency 
260-280 
280-300 
300-320 
320-340 
340-360 
360-380 
380-400 
             400-420 
8 
14 
16 
15 
9 
7 
6 
5 
8 
22 
38 
53 
62 
69 
75 
80 
 Frequency 
 16 
 14 
 12 
 10 
 8 
 6 
 4 
 2 
 0 260  280   300  320   340   360   380   400   420  Weekly allowance 
RWF
 (8 Marks) 
The modal value of the allowance is approximately 
RWF310, 
found from the histogram. 
(ii) The Median. 
 The median is the value of the 40.5 trainee in group 320 – 340. 
 From the formula the median value =  320  +  (40.5 – 38)/15  x  20  =  
RWF
323
.
33
.
 (6 Marks) 
(iii)  Comparison of the mode and median. 
 The mode is the greatest frequency of the distribution and is in the range 
RWF320 
- 
RWF340. 
The accurate value is derived from the histogram above. 
Page 38 
 The median represents 50% of the data above and below the mid point. It means that 50% of 
the trainees are receiving more than 
RWF
323
.
23 and 50% less than 
RWF
323
.
23
(8 Marks) 

Page 39 
SOLUTION 10 
(i)       The  trend for this  data  can  be  developed  using  either a moving average  technique  or  linear 
regression analysis. A four  quarter  centred  moving  average  could  be  derived  allowing  us  to 
decompose  the data to isolate the trend by means of either additive or multiplicative models. In the 
present case it may be substantially easier to develop the trend by means of linear regression without 
smoothing the data, that is, 
   y = a + bx where 
   a =      Σy    -    bΣx 
    n    n 
   b = Σxy - (ΣxΣy)/n, 
              Σx2 - (Σx)2/n 
Y
ea
r
Quarter 
x
Sales 
y
x
2
xy
1 
2 
3 
∑ 
1 
2 
3 
4 
5 
6 
7 
8 
9 
10 
11 
12 
78 
350 
295 
197 
390 
450 
420 
325 
460 
550 
530 
415 
615 
4
,
997 
1 
4 
9 
16 
25 
36 
49 
64 
81 
100 
121 
144 
650 
350 
590 
591 
1,560 
2,250 
2,520 
2,275 
3,680 
4,950 
5,300 
4,565 
7,380 
36
,
011 
 (5 Marks) 
 Inserting values gives 
 b  =  36,011  -  (78 x 4997)/12 
650  -  55
2
/
12  
 =    3530.5  =  24.69 
    143 
a  =  4997  -  24.69 x 78  =  416.4  -  160.5   =   255.9 
12  12 
 Therefore,  y  =  255.9  +  24.69x.                                                                        (5 Marks) 

Page 40 
 (ii) Plotting a graph of the points and projecting the data for 2010.                        (5 Marks) 
 Y Sales 
      600 
   300  
   Time 
Series 
 Regression 
Line 
 0  4  8  12  16 
Q
uar
t
ers 
 The projected points for the four quarters of 2010 are calculated from the regression line for 
quar
t
ers 
 13,14,15,16. 
 For  x  =  13,  y (Sales)  =  576,870 
 For  x  =  14,  y (Sales)  =  601,560 
 For  x  =  15,  y (Sales)  =  626, 250 
                         For  x  =  16,  y (Sales)  =  650,940   
(5 Marks) 
  (Total:  20 Ma
r
ks)

Page 41 
SOLUTION 11
  (i)          Initial Sum invested: 
RWF
10
,
000 
 At end year 1 
+10%       
RWF 
1,000 
                                         RWF 
5,000     
RWF
16
,
000 
 At end year 2 
+15% 
RWF
2,400 
RWF
5,000 
RWF
23
,
400 
 At end year 3 
+15% 
RWF 
3,510 
RWF 
5,000 
RWF
31
,
910   ----  Sum Receivable                  (3 Marks) 
       Return on investment:  (
RWF
31
,
910  -  
RWF
25
,
000) x 100  =  27.64% 
RWF
25
,
000 
 (3 Marks) 
          (ii)    Discounting 
RWF
13
,
500 to present values at 4% gives  13,500  =  13,500 
                         1.045       1.2166 
 =  R
WF
11
,
096 
 Since this value is greater than 
RWF
10
,
000
,
 the option to receive 
RWF
13
,
500 in 5 years is 
the best option. (6 Marks)  
          (iii) Standard deviation = 10kg;  Mean  =  ?;  x  =  1000kg. 
                   Converting these values to the standard Normal Distribution  z  =  x - µ 
           σ 
 For 5% (0.05),  z  =  1.645 
 Therefore,  1.645   =  1000  -  µ 
      10 
 µ  =  1000  -  1.645 x 10 
 =  983
.
55kg 
To ensure that only 5% of the orders are overweight the machine should be set to 983.55kg.   
(4 Marks)  

Page 42 
Diagram                                                                                                                    (4 Marks) 
 100 kg 
 Area 
= 0.05 
gives z 
= 1.645 
 µ 
[Total:  20 Ma
r
ks
] 
Page 43 
 SOLUTION 12 
 An explanation of the terms is provided below. 
 (i)  
Structure 
of a time series. A time series is a set of results for a particular variable 
taken over a period of time. There are four separate elements in the structure 
 -  Trend:  In many cases  the  data exhibits  a  shift either to lower  or  higher  values  over 
the  time  period  in question. This  movement  is called  the  trend and is  usually  the  result 
of some  long-term factors such as changes in expenditure, sales, demographic factors, etc. 
There may be many trend patterns – increasing linear trend, decreasing linear trend, non-
linear trend or no trend. 
 - 
Cyclical:
A time series may display a trend of some form but may also show a cyclical 
pattern of alternative sequences of observation above and below the trend line. Any regular 
pattern which lasts longer than a year is the cyclical element of the time series. This is a 
common occurrence represented by the retail sector of business. 
 - Seasonal: although the cyclical patter may be displayed over a number of years, there 
may be a pattern of variability within one-year periods. The element of the time series which 
represents variability due to seasonal influences is the seasonal element. While it normally 
refers to patterns over a one-year period, it can also refer to any repeating pattern of less 
than one-yearʼs duration. 
 -  Irregular  element:   this is  the  element which  cannot  be  explained by  the  trend,  the 
cyclical or seasonal elements. It represents the random variability in the time-series, caused 
by unanticipated and  non-recurring factors which are unpredictable. There are particular 
methods  used to smooth  out  the  irregular element of time series where there are  no 
significant trends, cyclical  or  seasonal patterns such as  moving  averages or exponential 
smoothing.  (5 Marks)  
 (ii) 
Investment Appraisal
. 
Many  use  many quantitative  techniques  as an aid to 
decision  making.  One  of  the  most  important  applications  is concerned with  investment 
decisions. Managers often have to make choices between alternative decisions, they need to 
consider future costs and revenues and the importance of incremental changes in costs and 
revenues. It is also critical to consider the  time value of money because of time scales 
involved. The  managerʼs  decision to  invest  is based  on  three  important  factors  –  the 
estimate of the future based on forecasts of costs, revenues, inflation, and interest rates; the 
alternatives available for investment: techniques to support the decision must be used; the 
business attitude to risk: because of the uncertainty  of  the  future  and project uncertainty, 
additional  techniques  must  be  used.  A  number  of  these techniques used in investment 
appraisal are,  the  accounting  rate  of  return; payback;  discounted  cash flow, such as net 
present value and internal rate of return. 
The accounting rate of return is the ratio of the average annual profits, after depreciation, to 
the capital involved. Variations of this exist but it has some drawbacks – it does not allow 
for  the  timing of cash flows and profit has subjective elements. Payback is  a  popular 
technique which is defined as the period which it takes for the projects net cash flows to 
recover the original investment. Payback favours quick return projects 
Page 44 
– the project with the shortest payback period is accepted. However, it does not measure 
overall investment worth since it does not consider cash flows after the payback period or 
the  timing  of  cash flows. Net Present  Value uses  discounting  principles and  involves 
calculating  the  present  value  of  expected cash  inflows  and outflows and establishing 
whether the present value of the net cash flows is positive. The internal rate of return is the 
discount rate which gives zero NPV. If the  calculated IRR is greater than the companyʼs 
cost of capital the investment is accepted. However these two techniques do not necessarily 
rank investment proposals in the same order of attractiveness. But the IRR technique is used 
extensively in investment appraisal decisions. (5 Marks) 
(iii)  Network 
Analysis
. 
This deals with a range of techniques used to aid managers in the 
planning  and control of projects. These  techniques  show  the  inter-relationship  of  the 
various jobs to be done to complete the project and clearly identify the critical parts of the 
project. They  provide  planning  and  control  information on the time, cost and resources 
required. These techniques are of particular value where projects are large and contain many 
related and interdependent activities, where many types  of  facilities, high capital 
investments and a large number of staff are involved, where projects have to be completed 
within target time and costs.  
Path  analysis.   To develop the technique it is necessary to know the activities involved, 
their logical relationship, an estimate of the time the activity is expected to take. It may be 
necessary to have a range of estimates of times, costs, resources and probabilities. Once the 
logic of the activities has been agreed and an outline network drawn, it can be completed by 
inserting the activity duration times. These times may be estimated by using probabilities 
(developing the expected time) or using basic time estimates. A basic feature of the analysis 
is the calculation of the project duration which is the duration of the critical path. This is the 
path through the network which gives the shortest time in which the whole project can be 
completed. It is the chain of activities with the longest duration times. In a network there 
may be more than one critical path. The activities along the critical path are vital activities 
which must be completed on time otherwise the project will be delayed. If it is required to 
reduce the overall project  duration  then the  time  of  one  or  more  of  the activities on  the 
critical path must be reduced. 
A further important feature of the analysis deals with the process of cost scheduling. This 
implies that by using more resources the duration could be reduced but at the expense of 
higher costs. The costs associated with delivery of the project, as designed, is the ʻnormalʼ 
cost. It is possible to reduce  the  activities by means of extra wages, overtime, additional 
facility costs which are higher than normal and are called crash costs. This is an element of 
least cost scheduling which finds the least cost method of reducing the overall project 
duration, time period by time period. (5 Marks) 
(iv) Measures  of 
dispersion. 
Measures of dispersion represent a measure of the extent of 
spread  of  data around the mean  or  average  of  the  data. The simplest measure  of 
dispersion  is to take the  absolute  difference between the highest and lowest value of the 
raw data – ʻthe rangeʼ. The interquartile range is the absolute difference between the upper 
and lower quartiles of a distribution. These measures of dispersion involve comparing two 
different points on the frequency distribution such as the maximum and minimum points 
(the range) or the upper and lower quartiles. However, other measures of dispersion which 
compare all  the  points on  the  frequency  distributions  are  more  important. The ʻmean 
Page 45 
deviationʼ, that is, the average of the absolute deviations from the arithmetic mean, may be 
used. However, if is the basis for the most common measures of dispersion – the variance 
and the standard deviation. The variance is derived by squaring all the deviations from the 
arithmetic mean. Rather than use squared units, it is more realistic to express solutions to 
problems in terms  of  single units. The standard  deviation  takes  the  square root  of  the 
variance. The standard deviation is then  the  square  root  of  the average  of  the squared 
deviation from the mean and is the most commonly used measure to explain the dispersion 
of data. These various methods can be used for both grouped and ungrouped data. (5 Marks)