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MTR 6009
Volume 3
PB 202778-03
A
TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT
METHODOLOGY
COMPUTERS-COMMUNICATIONS
NETWORKS
HUGH V. O'NEILL
JUNE 1971
. THE MITRE CORPORATION
~
" ",\
.
A TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY is a seven-volume report prepared by
the MITRE Corporation for the Office of Science and Technology, Executive Office of
the President. It is available only from the National Technical Information Service, and
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Title
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Some Basic Propositions
Automoti ve Emissions
Computer-Communications Networks
Enzymes (Industrial)
Mariculture (Sea Farming)
Water Pollution: Domestic Wastes
Project Summary
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MTR-6009
Volume 3
A
TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT
METHODOLOGY
COMPUTERS-COMMUNICATIONS
NETWORKS
HUGH V. O'NEILL
Project No.:
1310
JUNE 1971
CORPORATION
This document has been approved for public release.
WASHINGTON OPERATIONS
Department Approval:
MITRE Project Approval:
ii
ABSTRACT
This. paper describes a Pilot Computer Technology Assessment
Study. This study has as its goal the development and illustration
of technological assessment methodology and in addition, as a secondary objective, the investigation of certain salient segments of the
general computer situation. This study, a MITRE funded and supported
effort, is one of a set of six studies that MITRE recently completed
on the subject of technology assessment. This report includes: a
summary; task definition; technology descriptions; state of society/
universe assumptions, attributes, and conditions; relevant impact
areas; initial impact analysis; action options and recommendation
for future research and development program; forecasts/projections,
uncertainty and analysis of future impacts; and, conclusions and
recommendations.
iii
AN INDEX TO THE REPORTS IN THIS SERIES
VOLUME
NUMBER
NATURE
OF
VOLUME
TITLE
1
Some Basic Propositions
Methodology
2
Automotive Emissions
Pilot
Study
3
Computer-Communications
Networks
Pilot
Study
4
Enzymes (Industrial)
Pilot
Study
5
Mariculture (Sea Farming)
Pilot
Study
6
Water Pollution: Domestic
Wastes
Pilot
Study
iv
THIS
VOLUME
IS:
X
FOREWORD
There is a growing public concern that new technologies should
be introduced only after careful consideration of all beneficial as
well as damaging impacts that the technology may have on our
society. This concern has resulted from the fact that at times
in the past the application of new technology has been based primarily on the direct benefits that a technology could generate
without adequate concern for the associated potentially harmful
social and ecological effects.
At the same time, thoughtful observers have recognized the
hazards in moving frontally on this problem without a better understanding of the whole process through which new technology gets
applied. On this basis there is a growing interest in the development of a methodology for making what have been called f7 technology
assessments."
In May 1970, the Office of Science and Technology (OST),
Executive Office of the President, and the MITRE Corporation
undertook a jointly funded exploratory technology assessment
project. The objective of this project has been to lay the
foundations for a methodology that can be used to make assessment
studies in many different fields of technology.
MITRE's contract with OST called for the writing of five
reports - a methodological report and four pilot assessment studies.
The four pilot studies cover automotive emission control mechanisms,
industrial enzymes, mariculture (sea farming), and water pollution
control (domestic wastes). Because of its considerable past work
and continuing interest in electronics technology, MITRE also
decided to undertake independently and finance solely from its own
funds a fifth pilot assessment study on computer and communications
networks.
\-'1
1
v
"
~
.-;::;.
Each of the pilot studies addresses a broad range of complex
questions. Among these questions are: Where does the technology
currently stand, in what directions does it seem to be developing,
in what ways is the technology likely to be applied, what factors
are likely to influence that application, what are likely to .be the
second level and tertiary consequences of the initial application,
and what benefits and costs are likely to accrue from public efforts
to alter either the technology applications or their consequences.
Although the pilot studies address a comprehensive list of
topics, it is important that readers understand the objective of
these studies and the reasons why they cannot be considered complete assessments. Because of limitations on time and resources,
no aspect of the pilot studies could be carried as far as we would
have liked. To the extent that time permitted, the pilot studies
were used to derive and illustrate concepts, methods, and procedures that should go into full-fledged assessment studies. In
many cases the data recorded in the pilot studies were not
researched in depth. In some instances, we were obliged merely to
identify the nature of major uncertainties which a complete assessment would aim to define thoroughly. In most cases, the analysis
has been limited to a high level of aggregation if we felt that a
finer-grain analysis would not contribute additional methodological
insights. For instance, our analyses have been on a national scale
rather than on a regional or lower geographic level.
In short, the objective of these pilot studies has been solely
to help develop, test, and illustrate a generic technology assessment methodology, not to provide a substantive basis for public
policy decisions in the fields of technology studied.
It should be pointed out when examining the computer pilot
study that the conclusions and recommendations are somewhat general
in nature and the projections represent impact directions and
performance envelopes rather than specific numbers. This is mainly
due to the fact that this was only a six man-month study, and that
the following caveats obtain:
(a)
There is considerable uncertainty regarding the
various impacts of computer technology because of
the basic impossibility of precisely predicting the
future, even for relatively short time frames of
5 to 15 years.
vi
(b)
The majority of the data collected for this pilot study
pertain only to the situation obtaining at the end of
1970. In such a highly dynamic field as computers new
information continues to be generated on an almost daily
basis; therefore, the information in this report should
be updated to whatever time-frame is appropriate for any
future use.
(c)
Specific networks for gathering information relevant to
the technology assessment of computers and their impacts
have not been implemented at the present time; therefore,
detailed specific data on many major issues are not
available.
(d)
There is honest confusion regarding the interaction of
policy-making, regulatory, legislative, and enforcement
organizations, due to the newness of the problems
confronting them.
Although it is more important that a technology assessment
answer certain fundamental questions than that it format its findings in any particular way, for pedagogical reasons we have expressed our approach to these fundamental questions in terms of
seven basic steps. These steps are as follows:
(a)
define the assessment task
(b)
describe relevant technologies
(c)
develop state-of-society assumptions
(d)
identify impact areas
(e)
conduct preliminary impact analysis
(f)
identify possible action options
(g)
revise and complete impact analysis
vii
Because the methodology and the pilot studies were written concurrently rather than sequentially, we have not aimed for a complete
correspondence between the methodology and the pilot studies, or
among the various pilot studies, either in substance or material presentation. In the case of one pilot study (water pollution control)
the chapters of the report have been organized quite differently even
though the same substantive questions have been addressed as in the
other pilot studies.
viii
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Although individual authors are indicated for each of the project's reports, this has been an institutional project that has
drawn on a number of MITRE Washington management and research staff
who are not specifically identified below. Their contributions
were incorporated as part of MITRE's regular technical review
process.
Dr. Martin V. Jones was Research Coordinator for the study
and of all reports. He also wrote the basic methodology, Volume 1.
The primary authors of the pilot studies were as follows:
Automotive Emissions
Computers and Communications
Enzymes (Industrial)
Mariculture (Sea Farming)
Water Pollution
Mr.
Mr.
Mr.
Mr.
Mr.
Willis E. Jacobsen
Hugh V. O'Neill
David H. Rubin
Robert C. Landis
Victor D. Wenk
The Principal Investigator and author for the Computer Pilot
Study wishes to express his special acknowledgment and gratitude to
Dr. Ruth M. Davis of the National Bureau of Standards for guidance,
reviews, comments, input documents and fruitful discussions. In
addition, specific acknowledgment is given to Mr. Donald K. Pollock
of The National Science Foundation (now with the Maritime Administration) and to Mr. Kenneth Showalter of The Office of Naval Research
for reviews, fruitful discussions and input documents. In all cases,
however, MITRE assumes full responsibility for the contents of the
reports.
The participation of the following MITRE personnel should also
be acknowledged: Mr. Harold J. Podell, for assistance in reading and
summarizing a preliminary portion of the management literature; Mr.
Frank E. Brooks and Mr. Warren S. L. Moy, for assistance in part of
the editing; Mrs. Carol Paquette, for part of the early literature
search; and Miss Cathy Carl for the major secretarial assistance.
MITRE wishes to thank the authors and/or publishers of the works
cited in this report for their kind permission to use the material
quoted.
ix
SUMMARY
INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW
The primary objective of this study of computers is to
assist in the development of a methodology for technology
assessment.
Lessons learned and problems encountered in this
pilot study are part of the methodology development.
One of
the secondary objectives of this study is the integration and
evaluation of extant knowledge about the computer field.
Many
references, quotations, and exhibits from the literature are
presented as background information and to support or illustrate
specific points, as well as to give a sample of the exploding
volume of knowledge in the computer field.
This report, there-
fore, can serve as a point of departure containing some of the
elements of a plan for a more continuing effort for technological
assessment of computers, which probably have had as great an
impact on our society as any other technical innovation of the
past quarter century.
For instance, a list of over 2,000 kinds
of applications of computers was published in the Computer
Directory and Buyer's Guide issue of Computers and Automation,
November 30, 1970.
The time-frame examined for the study is approximately 1965
to 1985 with the major emphasis on the future years.
The tech-
nology investigated centered on computer-communications networks,
where each node in the network may be a simple terminal or a
minicomputer, as well as more advanced devices.
This study is
in part focused on the man-machine interaction for those who
are not professional computer programmers .. The primary consideration is for other professionals including doctors, lawyers,
decision makers/managers, educators, systems analysts, and
xi
policy analysts.
The programmer class of users is included_ in-
direc tly from the point of view of certain problem areas, such
as security/privacy.
Some of the information contained in Chapter I
is supporting material which illustrates the projected importance of
computer-communications networks and serves to justify the scope
of the task.
Some examples of the supporting material obtained from
the literature research are:
a projection of a market of $260
billion cumulative for the 1970-80 time frame for computerscommunications forming information systems; projection of an increase
by a factor of 200 in the total number of computers coupled with
communications in the decade of the 1970s; and a forecast indicating
that by 1974 between one and two million terminals will be linked
to computers.
The general geographical scope is the United States.
TECHNOLOGY DESCRIPTION
A computer-based information processing system includes
both information collection, storing and dissemination; and computation, simulation and modeling based upon appropriate data.
A computer-based information network includes:
(a) Time-sharing: Sharing available computer time via
terminals. Characteristically, the response time
is such that the computer seems dedicated to each user.
(b) On-line multiple access: Pertaining to access to a
computer by a number of users in such a way as to
permit man-machine interaction. Usually the computer
is operated in a time-sharing mode for this type of
service.
(c) "Real-time": Simultaneousness. (See also Glossary
and List of Acronyms, Appendix I.)
xii
(d) Man-machine interaction: The interaction in the utilization of a computer whereby the user, through an
on-line terminal, performs an input action which causes
the computer to perform a sequence of operations and
provide an output to the user. The user then, depending on the output, can perform another input action.
The interaction can continue in an iterative manner.
(e) Remote access: Pertaining to communication with a
data processing facility, and access to a computer,
from a terminal that is distant from the facility.
(f) Computer network: A computer with various remote
terminals, devices, etc.
(g) Networks of computers: A network with the major nodes
themselves consisting of computers (including minicomputers) and ancillary equipment.
(h) Data banks, both private and public:
collections of libraries of data.
Comprehensive
The key to the technology assessment of computers is the
realization that the computer is essentially the "forcing function" or "motor" that drives the computer-b ased network, and
that it is the information and its analysis which are of fundamental importance for policy-making and implementation and for
use by the medical, legal and educational professions, as well
as commerce, industry, defense, and space programs.
This means
that the projected advances in computer-communications will present major innovative tools for society but that the measure of
the computer impact will really be the changed nature of performance, in the cost-benefit sense, for the various professions
and the changed nature of the life style and quality of life of
the individual citizens.
This change would present at least
some measure of the impact of the security/privacy issue.
It
should also be pointed out that the impacts noted here are a
xiii
representative set 'from a much Lsrger lis t of impacts, both good
and bad.
The reader is invited to refer to Chapter II for more detailed discussion of both comp'uter and complementary technologies
(communications, microforms), both present and projected.
The
exhibits from the literature which are included in t:hat chapter
present a general view of such issues as computers and communications, capaci ties and capabilities.
The advances in the tech-
nologies described in Chapter II will permit systems that will
be capable of handling up to tens of thousands of on-line
devices depending upon the overall systems design and the function of the individual on-line 'element.
By 1980-85 there should
also be significant advances in computer program systems dedicated to particular professions such as law, medicine, education
and policy analysis.
The advances in computers and communica-
tions proj ected for the 1980-85 time- frame will also permi t the
design and efficient implementation of distributed computerbased information networks and data banks.
As a result of all
these projected advances, a significant increase in the quality
and quantity of health service, education, and administration
of justice per resource expended should be possible.
On the
other hand, if sufficient attention to problems such as security
and privacy is not forthcoming, then these same advances can potentially change the character of our life style in a very profound and unfavorable manner.
xiv
STATE-OF-SOCIETY/UNIVERSE ASSUMPTIONS, ATTRIBUTES AND CONDITIONS
AND RELEVANT IMPACT AREAS
Societal conditions are reflected in a set of constraints
upon the development and wide-spread introduction of computer
technology.
In many cases, these constraints will operate in
both directions in an iterative manner, i.e., a particular
societal condition may impede or accelerate the growth of technology and its application, and then in turn, be impacted upon
by the innovative technology.
This can produce a highly dynamic
situation which will modify any initially rather static conditions.
It is certainly not always intuitively obvious what the "steady
state" condition will be.
Therefore, the approach in this pilot
study is to identify some of the major classes of assumptions
and conditions including:
values, goals, and priorities; gross
economic considerations; major social problems and opportunities;
institutional, political, and legal factors; and demographics.
The relevant impact areas include the same general topics
given in the foregoing discussion, but emphasize the impact of
computer-communications technology upon these areas.
Both
Chapters III and IV contain checklists of microlevel attributes,
assumptions, and impacts.
These checklists represent types of
information which would be useful for specific cost/benefit
analyses.
Microlevel impacts provide a means for developing cost/
benefit analyses relative to the macrolevel impacts.
microlevel impacts quantify the broader impacts.
Sets of
The data col-
lected in each of the microlevel impact areas can be used to
measure the magnitude of the macrolevel impacts and thus permit
associating dollar values and/or specific benefits with the broad
impacts.
xv
INITIAL IMPACT ANALYSIS, ACTION OPTIONS, AND UNCERTAINTY OF
FUTURE IMP ACTS
Chapter V includes a table of Representative Projected Impacts which were obtained through research ?nd analysis of the
literature.
There are seventy (70) items listed which were
tained from a dozen separate sources.
ob~
The chapter uses, as an
example, an expanded statement of. one of the special problems
of computer-based information processing networks:
privacy problem.
the security/
Because of the time constraint, the discussion
is limited to some of the groundwork necessary for more complete
impact analysis.
The impact on security and privacy is such
that one should expect a serious level of abuse of the
rights of citizens unless adequate safeguards are developed to
provide the required protection.
Enough evidence from this preliminary analysis and judgment
is presented to warrant the conclusion that a plan for organizing
action options including a research, development and monitoring
program and legislative and educational programs should be devised at the earliest time feasible.
On the other hand, there
is not enough coordinated specific detailed information to produce an entire program plan. and, therefore, this information
serves as a point of departure rather than as a sophisticated
complete analysis.
Chapter VI describes relevant action options and recommends
research and development programs aimed at guiding development of
computer technology for the benefit of society.
This includes a
discussion of the logical arguments which support a research,
development, and monitoring program.
Chapters V and VI should
be thought of as a closely connected set.
xvi
Chapter VI investigates
the consequences of the observations and information in Chapter
V.
The security /privacy problem is used to illustrate action
options which can be addressed to the problems of computerbased technology.
These include monitoring systems which gather
information on problems and opportunities; control actions,
including research and development programs and legislation; and
obviating devices including educational and legislative programs.
There are many other specific action options which can be considered.
Antimonopoly regulations and laws making data available
to all potential customers for information are only two of the
additional action options among an extremely large set of possibilities.
Chapter VI discusses the framework for research,
development and monitoring systems which would give a rational
basis for a whole spectrum of action options.
Chapter VII discusses one of the more difficult tasks
encountered in technological assessment, i.e., the problem of
making projections or forecasts for both the potential technological advances and the future interacting impacts of these advances and other societal conditions such as economic or political.
The DELPHI Technique and the use of scenarios are emphasized,
and some of the specific problems of uncertainty and attempts to
be exhaustive and comprehensive are illuminated.
RECOMMENDATIONS
The listing below indicates the areas of consideration for
the recommendations contained in the report.
The reader should
refer to Chapter VIII for a more complete statement of the conclusions and recommendations and for the rationale supporting the
recommendations.
There
is uncertainty due to the caveats mentioned
xvii
in the Foreword, and, because this was only a six man-month
study, many of the following statements must reflect judgments
rather than detailed analysis.
The following is an abbreviated description of the recommendations:
(a)
A nucleus planning and analysis group should- be formed
on a permanent basis for the technological assessment
of computers and their variety of complex impacts.
(b)
Some of the classified military computer applications
should be examined with appropriate security safeguards.
(c)
An in-depth investigation of the computer's impact
on employment should be performed. This investigation
would include a monitoring system for the employmentunemployment situation and automation.
(d)
Solutions, both technical and legal, must be found and
implemented to lessen the problems of security and
privacy of computer-based information systems, networks, and data banks in order that overall policy
may be formulated soon.
(e)
The copyright and patent problems for computer-based
information systems should be the subject of further
investigations -- both legal and technical.
(f)
Large-scale experiments in the application of computers
should be performed through the interaction of
information technology organizations/agencies and
mission-oriented organizations/agencies.
(g)
A plan for a strong educational program for both the
applications of computers and their fundamental concepts
for all age groups should be devised.
xviij
(h)
The specific organizational and policy implementation
problems of the control and guidance of computer-based
impacts should be addressed.
(i)
A large-scale directed R&D program should be established.
The following is an abbreviated sample from the list in
Chapter VIII of the many objectives of such a program:
voice input, at least to a limited extent; relatively
inexpensive sophisticated terminals; improved capability
for a verification and subsequent official certification
of software performance; performance standards and measurements for hardware and software; and progress towards
higher efficiency in the implementation of the highest
level user-oriented computer languages/systems. The
desired advances indicated in this list are from the
point of view of service to the user or consumer rather
than particular hardware advances which may be part of
on-going R&D effort of the various computer vendors.
(j)
Both a computer-based network or subnetwork and a major
data bank should be implemented for the purposes of
technological assessment in general and specifically for
the purpose of technological assessment of computerscommunications and their complex impacts.
(k)
There should be further research and analysis to refine
methodology for cost-performance (cost-effectiveness
and cost-benefits) analysis for the complex computer network
systems under consideration. This research and analysis
would be an action option directed toward the problem
of faulty cost benefit/performance projections, which
in the past have resulted in scandalous cost overruns
and lack of performance in the eyes of the user (customer
or consumer).
xix
TABLE OF CONTENTS
LIST OF EXHIBITS
xxv
CHAPTER
I
II
TASK DEFINITION
ISSUE
Purpose
Scope
TASK
METHODOLOGY
Definition
Structure of Computer Networks
PROBLEM DEFINITION AND SCOPE NARROWING
Time-Frame Delineation
Technological Scope Narrowing
Geographical Scope Narrowing
TECHNOLOGY DESCRIPTIONS
COMPUTER TECHNOLOGY
Current State of the Art
Hardware
Software
Techniques, Concepts, and Philosophy
of Operation
Special Problems
Measures of Merit, Effectiveness, and
Performance
Projected State of the Art
Breakthroughs and Directed Research and
Development Needed, Including Technical,
Institutional, and Economic
Environment Characteristics
Physical-Resource Data
Operational Data
Users
Time Pha sing
Financial Information
COMPLEMENTARY TECHNOLOGY
Communications Technology
Present Time-Frame
Projected State of the Art
xxi
1
1
1
2
3
4
5
7
8
9
9
11
15
16
16
16
17
17
17
18
20
26
27
28
28
32
32
32
34
34
34
40
TABLE OF CONTENTS (Continued)
Microform, Video (TV), and-Facsimile
Growth in the COM Field
Advantages of COM
Characteristics of Current COM Hardware
Status of CIM Development
Optical Mass Memory Development
Microform Storage and Retrieval Systems
Impact of Microform on Publishing
A Broader Perspective
ALTERNATIVES TO AND WITHIN THE TECHNOLOGY
III
STATE-OF-SOCIETY/UNIVERSE ASSUMPTIONS,
ATTRIBUTES,-AND CONDITIONS
MACROLEVEL ASSUMPTIONS AND ATTRIBUTES
National Goals, Policies and Conditions
Centralization of Government
National Transportation Policy
Defense vs. Civilian Sector
National Health Policy
Public Order and Justice
Education and Training
Communications
Citizen Values (Individual, Group, and
Societal)
The Acceptance of Technological Change
Opportunity vs. Security
Gross Economic Consideration
Time-Utilization Patterns
Income Distribution
International Competitive Balance
Institutional, Political and Legal Factors
The War vs. Peace Situation
Consumer Protection/Representation
Legal Aspects
Demographic Factors
MICROLEVEL PROJECTIONS, ATTRIBUTES, AND
ASSUMPTIONS
xxii
46
46
,47
47
49
49
50
50
51
53
56
57
57
57
57
58
58
59
60
60
61
61
61
61
62
62
62
63
63
63
64
64
65
TABLE OF CONTENTS (Continued)
IV
V
VI
RELEVANT IMPACT AREAS
MACROLEVEL IMPACTS
Planning and Policy Formulation:
Goals, Priorities
Environment
Demography
Economic
Societal
Institutional
MICROL.EVEL IMPACTS
69
73
Values,
INITIAL IMPACT ANALYSIS
PROJECTED IMPACTS FROM THE LITERATURE
RESEARCH
SPECIAL PROBLEM IMPACT--SECURITY/PRIVACY
Security/Privacy Problem and Its
Potential Impact
Scenarios Which Illustrate Potential
Harmful Impacts of Resource Sharing
Computer-Based Information Systems
ACTION OPTIONS AND RECOMMENDATION FOR FUTURE
RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM
ESTABLISHING A CONTEXT FOR ACTION OPTIONS
GUIDING DEVELOPMENT OF COMPUTER TECHNOLOGY
Control Options
Monitoring Systems
Obviating Devices
REPRESENTATIVE CATEGORIES OF USERS AND
APPLICATIONS
RESEARCH,DEVELOPMENT, AND MONITORING
PROGRAM PLAN
Summary of Requirements for RD & M Program
Sufficient Justification
Research and Development Program Plan
Some Specific Program Objectives and Ideas
Point of Departure: Resources and Action
Options
RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM EVALUATION
xxiii
73
74
77
77
79
80
80
83
84
86
103
108
112
112
114
114
121
123
124
134
134
134
135
135
138
138
TABLE OF CONTENTS (Concluded)
VII
VIII
FORECASTS/PROJECTIONS, UNCERTAINTY, AND
ANALYSIS OF FUTURE IMPACTS
DELPHI TYPE TECHNIQUES
SCENARIOS
UNCERTAINTY AND REPRESENTATIVENESS
COMPUTER FORECASTS/PROJECTIONS AND
FUTURE IMPACT AREAS
146
147
150
150
153
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
CONCLUSIONS
RECOMMENDATIONS
162
162
164
GLOSSARY AND LIST OF ACRONYMS
173
A SAMPLE CATALOG OF COMPUTER APPLICATIONS
PART A: A SAMPLE OF THE DATA PROCESSING
APPLICATIONS IN THE NEXT DECADE
SHOWING ESTIMATED USE OF COMMON
CARRIER LINES
182
APPENDIX
I
II
PART B:
III
A SAMPLE FROM THE OVER 2000
APPLICATIONS OF COMPUTERS AND DATA
PROCESSING
DATA BASE OF FORECASTS PERTAINING TO
DEVELOPMENT OF COMPUTER TECHNOLOGY: PRESENT-YEAR 2000
PART A: COMPUTER APPLICATION FORECAST
PART B:
DATA BANK OF EVENTS
REFERENCES
189
200
212
213
218
231
xxiv
LIST OF EXHIBITS
Exhibit
1
COMPUTER TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT STRATEGY
2
ESTIMATED DISTRIBUTION OF COMMUNICATIONS
COMMON CARRIER REVENUES FROM COCI BY USER
INDUSTRY: 1970 to 1980 (BY BILLIONS OF
DOLLARS)
12
3
COMPUTER PILOT SWDY - SCOPE OF SWDY
13
4
THE TREND IN COST EFFECTIVENESS OF COMPUTER
SYSTEMS CENTRAL PROCESSOR UNIT AND PRIMARY
STORAGE COMPONENTS
22
5
NCIC NETWORK
29
6
ARPA NETWORK (GREATLY SIMPL IF lED)
30
7
CYBERNET NETWORK
31
8
RECENT ANNOUNCEMENTS OF MAJOR SIGNIFICANCE
TO THE COMPUTER UTILITY CONCEPT
33
CURRENTLY AVAILABLE COMMON CARRIER COMMUNICATIONS OFFERINGS USEFUL FOR DATA TRANSMISSION
36
COMPARISON OF DATA PROCESSING EQUIPMENT
OPERATION SPEEDS WITH AVAILABLE TRANSMISSION
LINE SPEEDS
37
11
THE SEQUENCE OF INVENTIONS IN TELECOMMUNICATIONS
42
12
COST TRENDS IN TERRESTRIAL TRANSMISSION
43
13
FORECASTED NUMBER OF TERMINALS
44
14
FORECAS TED CALL VOLUME BY ECONOMIC SEGMENT
45
15
TECHNOLOGY DESCRIPTION BACKGROUND STATEMENT
55
16
PRESENT WORLD COMPUTER POPUIATION
67
9
10
xxv
6
LIST OF EXHIBITS (Continued)
Exhibit
17
PROJECTIONS OF COCI AND TERMINALS
68
18
THE INTERACTIVE NATURE OF COMPUTER
TECHNOLOGY IMPACT ANALYSIS
72
19
REPRESENTATIVE TABLE OF PROJECTED IMPACTS
87
20
TYPICAL CONFIGURATION OF RESOURCE-SHARING
COMPUTER SYSTEM
115
SUMMARY OF COUNTERMEASURES TO THREAT
TO INFORMATION PRIVACY
116
STRONG NATIONAL PROGRAM VS. LOCAL OPTIONS
OR ORDINARY MARKET PLACE ACTIONS RE SECURITY/
PRIVACY
118
IMPACT PARAMETERS OF COMPUTER TECHNOLOGY WITH
RESPECT TO APPROPRIATE USER CLASSES -- WITHOUT
ACTION OPTIONS
129
THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INSTITUTIONAL
FACTORS AND RELEVANT APPLICATION CLASSES
WITHOUT ACTION OPTIONS
130
25
RELEVANCY TABLE
133
26
TYPES OF ACTION OPTIONS
139
27
IMPACT PARAMETERS OF COMPUTER TECHNOLOGY WITH
RESPECT TO APPROPRIATE USER CLASSES -- WITH
ACTION OPTIONS IMPLEMENTED
141
THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INSTITUTIONAL
FACTORS AND RELEVANT APPLICATION CLASSES
WITH ACTION OPTIONS IMPLEMENTED
142
DURING THE NEXT TEN YEARS THE FEDERAL
GOVERNMENT WILL SPEND FOR SOCIAL-NEED PROJECTS
144
EFFECT OF GROUP SIZE
148
21
22
23
24
28
29
30
xxvi
LIST OF EXHIBITS (Concluded)
Exhibit
31
RELIABILITY VS. GROUP SIZE
149
32
COMBINATORIAL PROBLEM VS. RAW COMPUTER SPEED
152
33
COMPUTERS AND THE FUTURE
154
34
COMPUTER ORGANIZATION
156
35
SUMMARY STATISTICS - DATA PROCESSING
APPLICATIONS IN THE NEXT DECADE SHOWING
ESTIMATED USE OF COMMON CARRIER LINES
184
SUMMARY STATISTICS OF OVER 2000 APPLICATIONS
OF COMPUTERS AND DATA PROCESSING
186
36
xxvii
CHAPTER I
TASK DEFINITION
ISSUE
Computers are in the process of fundamentally altering the
organizational structures of our institutions and the living
conditions of our society.
They have already deeply penetrated
both industry and government and have strongly influenced the
production and service functions.
There is general agreement
among the users that they have enhanced levels of service and
decreased costs,have permitted achievement of otherwise impossible
goals in other technologies (e.g., real-time solution of complex
trajectories in the space program), have relieved analysts of
lengthy, laborious numerical solutions of involved problems in
mathematics and mechanics (problems which otherwise, in most
instances, would not even be attempted), and have provided new
services.
But computers have also been identified as the source
of major potential harmful impacts; the more critical ones
include invasion of privacy, a potential rise in unemployment,
and the general problem of due process under the law when an
individual is dealing with a computerized system.
Because potential
impacts of computer technology are so extensive, there is a real
need for a methodology that would permit comprehensive, futureoriented assessment studies in this field.
Purpose
The primary objective of this project is to develop a
methodology for technology assessment through the case history/
pilot study approach.
This pilot study on computers is intended
~
to provide a method for combining and evaluating computer-related
1
knowledge and projections from many sources.
Lessons learned and
problems encountered in this partial technological assessment of
computers contribute to the methodology development.
This study
surveys the field of computer technology with special attention
given to societal impacts.
The technical a.spects 6f computers are
touched on only to provide a foundation for analysis of these
impacts.
The computer pilot study does not intend to produce a
comprehensive assessment of computer technology and, therefore, it
need not go into great depths on all computer issues.
Specific
computer technology potential and problems were investigated in
some depth only where it was appropriate.
Although there may be
certain new information presented in the study, the main or
central thrust should be considered from the point of view of a
longer range technical assessment plan.
This paper should,
therefore, serve as a point of departure containing elements for
the plan of a continuing effort in conducting technological
assessment of computers.
Scope
Although the task in general includes the vast field of
computer technology, there are two external groundrules:
(a)
The report is to be completely unclassified; hence,
it cannot contain certain information pertinent to
some major applications of advanced computer technology by the military; the intelligence community;
command, control and communications organizations;
and the AEC.
(b)
Since this document has unrestricted dissemination, it
does not contain proprietary information from any organization, corporation or affiliation. This omission has
not been detrimental to methodology development.
2
TASK
The pilot study aims at providing an approach for integrating
and evaluating the exploding volume of computer-related knowledge.
Drawing heavily on available information, the study undertakes to:
(a)
project current computer technology to some future date
such as 1980 or 1985. By the 1980 to 1985 time frame
the significant interaction of the computer with
communications and the direct man-machine interaction
will probably dominate the scene. This will no doubt
include the "computer-based information network" and
its various related concepts, with all its attendant
benefits and problems.
(b)
identify, analyze, and where appropriate, quantify the
magnitude of potential applications of this projected
technology.
(c)
estimate the need for research resources for, and the criticality of impacts of,these technology applications on
major areas of national well-being, including:
(1)
the joint problem of privacy and security for
both the individual and the organization'
(2)
the economic effect on labor
(3)
legal rights, "due process" and problems such as
copyrights
(4)
diversity versus conformity with respect to
citizen values and life style
(5)
provision of new business and consumer services
and improvement of existing ones
(6)
reducing the costs of services
(7)
better utilization of certain scarce skills
(e.g., medical personnel or decision-maker/analyst
personnel)
3
(8)
reducing the drudgery associated with menial
tasks
(9)
possible "dehumanizing" of consumer services
(10)
undesirable side effects of scientism - an attitude
that places undue emphasis on a quantitative and
computational approach at the risk of oversimplifying a problem.
(d)
observe and analyze political, legal, administrative,
and institutional obstacles that may impede the largescale application of new computer technology. In order
that the benefits of advanced computer-based innovations
may be realized, the major problems of technological
innovation must be addressed. These problems include
social, psychological and political inertia. Some of
the currently powerful vested interest groups will
oppose the technical innovation with such vigor and
resources that they may decrease the rate of progress
significantly.
(e)
identify and assess public policy options directed at
the favorable impacts of projected computer
technology and minimizing the adverse impacts. A
variety of full-fledged computer-based information
networks should have a major effect on communications,
transportation, pollution, and probably other major
national industries and problems. In the coming
decades, communications systems must increase their
capacity through such innovations as microwave networks
and communications satellites in order to provide
the required resources for a truly national or international information network.
max~m~z~ng
METHODOLOGY
The fundamental problem for this study is that, on the one
hand, the field of computer technology is diverse and there is an
abundance of literature available; on the other hand, there are
practical constraints imposed by the schedule and resources for
this computer pilot study.
If only a single topic is chosen there
4
will be difficulty with respect to the impact and, in a certain
sense, the credibility of the study.
Yet, if an attempt is made to
cover the general computer technology field without focusing on
some specific major areas, then it is not feasible to exemplify a
realistic technology assessment within the allocated resources.
The resolution of this dilemma for the pilot study is as follows:
(a)
cover the major computer areas in minimum depth
(b)
choose one or two salient projected benefits or
problems for a more thorough investigation
Exhibit 1 (Computer Technology Assessment Strategy) illustrates
that this is a feedback process in which:
(a)
Data (Preliminary Litera ture Search) is examined and
evaluated and an initial judgment is made.
(b)
Feedback from reviewers is examined and evaluated.
(c)
This process is iterated until the results are judged
satisfactory, with due consideration given to the
resources available.
Definition
This study looks at computer technology in the context of
computer-based information processing systems that will include both
information collection, storage, and dissemination and computation,
simulation, and modeling based upon appropriate data.
A computer-
based information processing network is characterized by:
(a)
Time-sharing: sharing available computer time via
terminals. Characteristically, the response time is
such that the computer seems dedicated to each
user.
5
1
5
DATA GATHERING/LITERATURE
SEARCH RELATIVE TO TECHNOLOGY,
IMPACTS, PROJECTIONS, BENEFITS
AND PROBLEMS
DISSEMINATE DRAFT TO
REVIEWERS (IN COMPUTER
FIELD AND OTHER PROFESSIONS)
AND RECEIVE FEEDBACK
6
2
ANALYZE INFORMATION GATHERED
AND COMPARE TO RESOURCES
ALLOCATED TO PROJECT AND TO
CONSTRAINTS SUCH AS NONCLASSIFIED AND NONPROPRIETARY
CONTINUE LITERATURE
SEARCHES AND MAKE PERSONAL
CONTACTS
7
REFINE SCOPE AND
DIRECTION OF THE STUDY -PRODUCE DRAFT REPORT
3
MAKE INITIAL DECISION ON
SCOPE AND EMPHASIS (MANMACHINE INTERACTION,-COMPUTERBASED INFORMATION NETWORKS
AND SECURITY/PRIVACY)
4
ITERATE
~,
8
0
r------------L------------~
PRODUCE PRELIMINARY DRAFT
DOCUMENT
~,
DECIDE WHETHER TO CONTINUE
ITERATING OR PRODUCE FINAL
REPORT ON THE BASIS OF
RESOURCES REMAINING, DEADLINES AND GOALS
FINISH
9
~,
IDENTIFY SPECIAL PROBLEMS
AND/OR POTENTIAL BENEFITS
THAT MIGHT BE PLACED IN A
WARNING SYS TEM CATEGORY AND
IDENTIFY STUDY UPDATING
POTENTIAL FOR THE FUTURE
10
~,
PRODUCE FINAL REPORT
EXHIBIT 1
COMPUTER TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT STRATEGY
6
(b)
On-line multiple access: pertaining to access to a
computer by a number of users in such a way as to
permit man-machine interaction. Usually the computer
is operated in a time-sharing mode for this type of
service.
(c)
"Real-time":
Appendix I)
(d)
Man-Machine interaction: Ehe interaction in the
utilization of a computer whereby the user, through
an on-line terminal, performs an input action which
causes the computer to perform a sequence of operations and provide an output to the user. The user
then, depending on the output, can perform another
input action. The interaction can continue in an
iterative manner.
(e)
Remote access: pertaining to communication with a
data processing facility, and access to a computer,
from a terminal that is distant from the facility.
(f)
Computer network: a computer with various remote
terminals, devices, etc.
(g)
Network of computers: a network with the major nodes
themselves consisting of computers (including minicomputers) and ancillary equipment.
(h)
Data banks, both private and public:
collections of libraries of data.
simultaneousness (see Glossary,
comprehensive
In preparing this document it was not found feasible to
eliminate all terminology which is peculiar to the automatic Qata
processing field.
A glossary and list of acronyms may be found
in Appendix I.
Structure of Computer Networks
Computer-based information networks may be structured in one
or more of the following ways:
(a)
a general, U. S. Government-organized and
7
administered network on a national and/or regional
basis -- for the use 6f various government departments and agencies
(b)
a department-oriented network operated by one of the
major federal agencies/departments
(c)
commercial, local time-sharing companies which may
service many small businesses as part of their clientele
(d)
a national or regional commercial network serving a
relatively diverse set of customers
(e)
an in-house network organized and controlled by a
large corporation or international agency
(f)
an in-house multiple access system for a particular
installation, base, or large commercial building
In some cases the computer and communications may be owned and
operated by a single organization, while some of the networks will
probably use common-carrier lines.
PROBLEM DEFINITION AND SCOPE NARROWING
Since it is the objective of the pilot study to illustrate
a methodology which may be useful for technical assessment in
general, as well as in the computer field, the approach taken is
as follows:
(a)
choose a major, likely dominant, direction of the
computer field in the time-frame projected (such that
study resources are consistent with the objectives)
(b)
proceed with technological assessment as follows:
(1)
assess the current state of the art
(2)
project the state of the art in terms of time
frames or frame of the future
8
(3)
identify and analyze the cost, benefits and
problems to the society resulting from this
technology
(4)
outline specific policy options available in the
present, intermediate, and future time-frame under
study (This is a particularly important item in
the chosen approach to technology assessment, since
it is strongly recommended that such assessment
be action-oriented.)
Time-frame Delineation
The time period 1980 to 1985 will be used as the major
point of interest.
However, the time-frame from approximately 1965
until 1980 will also be investigated.
The 1980 to 1985 time frame is close enough to the present to
motivate political and individual involvement and yet far enough
in the future so that a realistic implementation plan can be
executed.
The time frames 1965 to 1970 and 1970 to 1980 are also
appropriate because of the data available and because this is the
time (1970 to 1980) when realistic implementation must occur.
Technological Scope Narrowing
The central focus is on computer-based information networks
comprising general-purpose digital computers, data communication
facilities, and minicomputers or sophisticated display devices
serving as terminals.
When considering utilization of such
networks, the emphasis for this study is on man-machine interaction.
The breadth and diversity of computer applications are illustrated
in Appendix II, A Sample Catalog of Computer Applications.
There are several reasons for the choice of a computer-based
infonnation network and its various related concepts.
9
(a)
It contains the appropriate ingredients for a nationally
relevant technological assessment. It holds benefits,
such as better analysis of various program,allocations by
the government, and it also contains specific and representative dangers to the citizens such as invasion of privacy.
(b)
The mainstream of recent advancement in applications of
computers includes the chosen concepts; they can serve at
least as representative of the computer field in general.
The computer concepts chosen include special-purpose or
dedicated computer-based information networks such as law
enforcement networks or a computer network devoted to one
large national or international corporation.
(c)
A tremendous increase is expected in the interaction and
coupling of computers with communications, another huge
and vital segment of our economy. Dr. Ruth M. Davis
noted in 1968:
Time-sharing with all its ramifications
demands the coupling of computers with communications. Time-sharing as yet is still
in embryonic stages. Today there are an
estimated 40,000 computers in the United
States. One-half of one percent or approximately 200 of these are linked to communication lines. In the decade of the 1970's
the number of computers in the United States
is expected to almost double: it is anticipated that 50 percent of these will be linked
to communication lines--an increase by a
factor of 200 in the total n(T~er of computers
coupled with communications.
(d)
The economic impact resulting from increased coupling of
computers with communications should be considerable.
One forecast using information from Business Week estimates
that the joining of telecommunications to computers to
form information systems will produce a market worth
$260 billion, cumulative, between 1970 and 1980. As
indicated in Reference (2), this includes the dollar
volume spent for equipment, services, and resources.
Dan'Cordtz, writing in Fortune, forecasted that by 1974
more than half of the 98,000 computers then in operation
are expected to be linked by transmission facilities to
1,200,000 terminals. (2)
10
Early in 1969, General Electric Company prepared the
estimates, shown in Exhibit 2, of revenues for (O@ffiunication-oriented computer installation (COCI). 3)
Geographical Scope Narrowing
In general, this pilot study is limited to the United States
because our major policy options are relevant to this country.
In
addition, the United States has well over half of the world's
computing systems at the present time.
Recently published estimates
of the distribution of computers as of January 1970 are given in
the following table.(4)*
U. S.
Western Europe
U • S. S. R.
Eastern Europe
Other
World Total
62,500
24,000
5,500
1,500
12,500
106,000
Exhibit 3 illustrates, in capsule form,the scope of the computer
pilot study.
The headings, major and minor, in the exhibit refer
to the amount of time spent during the study on a particular
category.
For example, the impacts listed have
XiS
under the
"Minor" column heading, but clearly the computer impact upon those
categories is major.
The amount of time allocated to any major
coverage of a category was a maximum of 10 percent of the study;
the
XIS
under the "Minor" column represent significantly less time.
*From
"Computers in Eastern Europe," Ivan Berenyi. Copyright 1970
by Scientific American, Inc. All rights reserved.
11
EXHIBIT 2
ESTIMATED DISTRIBUTION OF COMMUNICATIONS COMMON
CARRIER REVENUES FROM COCI* BY USER
INDUSTRY: 1970 to 1980
(BY BI LLiONS OF DOLLARS)
t-'
N
TOTAL
SERVICES
OTHER
CUMULATIVE
($ Billions) ($ Billions) ($ Billions)
YEAR
MANUFACTURING
($ Billions)
FINANCE
($ Billions)
1970
0.85
0.2
0.1
0.13
1.28
1972
1.6
0.3
0.14
0.24
2.28
1974
2.9
0.5
0.25
0.43
4.1
1976
4.9
0.9
0.43
0.72
7.0
1978
7.9
1.4
0.7
1.2
11.2
1980
12.5
2.2
1.1
1.8
17.6
*COCI is an acronym for IiCommunications-Oriented Computer Installations."
Source: GE Submission to the FCC, February 1969, re establishment of
domestic non-common carrier communication satellite
facilities by nongovernmental entities.
EXHIBIT 3
COMPUTE R PI LOT STUDY
SCOPE* OF STUDY
BREADTH *
OF
STUDY
DEPTH* OF COVERAGE
Major
Minor
COMMENT
None
Range of Technologies
Computer
x
Supporting
x
Communications, microform, TV
x
Competitive
Range of Topics
Technology Forecasts
x
x
State of Society Conditions
Action Options
x
Mostly intuitive" especially
Delphi type
R&D program plan and evaluation, monitoring systems, large
scale experiments, legislative
and educational programs
Groups Affected
Beneficiaries
x
Sponsors
x
Third Parties
x
Time Period Analyzed
x
Extent Retrospective
Extent Futuristic
x
Approximately 1970-85
Types of Impacts
Economic
x
Social
x
Environment
x
Political
x
Legal
x
Institutional
x
Other
x
*
Approximately 1965-70
Impacts include all the major
categories considered
Quality of life, educational,
medical
Scope measured by the amount of time spent on the breadth and depth.
13
EXHIBIT 3 (Concluded)
COMPUTE R PI LOT STUDY
SCOPE* OF STUDY
BREADTH*
OF
STUDY
DEPTH* OF COVERAGE
Major
Minor
Impacts highly interactive,
iterative and dynamic
Levels of Impacts
Primary
COMMENT
None
X
Secondary
X
Tertiary
X
Impact Measurements
Qua litative
Approximate or
Precise
X
Approximate
Quan ti ta ti ve
Approximate or
Precise
X
Approximate
Uncertainty
Analysis
*
X
Scope measured by the amount of time spent on the breadth and depth.
14
CHAPTER II
TECHNOLOGY DESCRIPTIONS
This chapter provides a general description of the technologies
under consideration.
The discussion is intended to present the
correct order of magnitude or "ballpark" estimates of performance,
rather than great technical detail.
The reader is referred to the
literature in the list of references for additional detailed information.
In addition, such standard reports as the various Auerbach
and Keydata publications are available for technical detail.
The
projections extrapolate current development to what will be technically and economically feasible by the 1980 to 1985 time frame.
The methodology and analysis for projections are discussed in
Chapter VII of this document.
Whenever one attempts to predict future events or development
of a technology he should be strongly aware of the great uncertainties
inevitably associated with such predictions, and he should temper his
statements accordingly.
The methodology for this study included exami-
nation of predictions made by a number of experts in the field; quite
naturally, different individuals have differing opinions regarding
what will happen during the next several years.
Therefore, the graphs
and numbers included in' this report should be taken as only gross
estimates of what might occur in the future.
They are intended to
describe the trend of developments and perhaps the envelope of future
performance capabilities; they certainly should not be used for detailed
system design purposes.
Furthermore, nearly all of the data for this
study was assembled by December 1970; some 'of the information came
from references which were published in the late 1960's.
Therefore,
this study should be updated before it is used in future activities.
15
COMPUTER TECHNOLOGY
Current State of the Art
The state of the art for the purposes of this discussion will
be divided into the following topics:
(a)
hardware
(b)
software
(c)
techniques, concepts, and philosophy of operation
(d)
special problems
(e)
measures of merit, effectiveness, performance, etc.
Hardware
The general state of present performance for hardware can be
characterized by the following:
(a)
processors which will perform approximately three to
ten million operations per second (still higher computation speeds can be achieved when needed with computing
systems such as the ILLIAC IV and the CDC STAR that
can perform several tens of millions of operations per
second)
(b)
primary memory storage on the order of one-half million
to a million words (approximately 30-60 bits per word)
(c)
cycle time of less than one-half microsecond
(d)
capability for handling, in a practical manner, from
dozens to hundreds of peripheral devices (depending
upon controllers and communications channels)
(e)
auxiliary storage devices that will store from several
hundreds of millions of characters to several billions
of characters, and, in some cases, a few trillion
characters
(f)
special sophisticated instruction sets
16
Software
The current software situation can be characterized by the
following:
(a)
many "higher level" progrannning languages such as
FORTRAN, COBOL, GPSS, DYNAID, etc.
(b)
comprehensive computer operating systems
(c)
ready-made data management systems capable of handling
a large variety of file construction, update, retrieval
and report generation functions
(d)
many thousands of "canned routines," each dedicated
to a particular application or set of applications
Techniques, Concepts and Philosophy of Operation
The current situation is characterized by the following:
(a)
multiprogrannning and multiprocessing which enable
various user programs to share various system resources
simultaneously, thus lowering processing cost per work
unit
(b)
multiple-access, on-line, remote, and time-sharing
architecture which will currently permit upwards of
several dozen simultaneous users with a reasonable
response time, depending upon the individual function
being performed
(c)
the combi~ing of several computers to form networks
( developmental)
Special Problems
This area may be characterized by the following:
(a)
reliability of software
(b)
security and privacy problems
17
(c)
overall standards (including compatibility/
transferability of software)
(d)
efficiency" of large sophisticated software systems
(e)
the overall complexity of the systems
(f)
software development costs
Measures of Merit, Effectiveness, and Performance
There are many measures and submeasures which might be considered.
Some examples are:
(a)
according to Herman Kahn and Anthony Wiener, the
size of the memory space divided by the basic
"add time," which roughly measures a computer's (5)
ability both to hold and to process information
(b)
some benchmarks or kernel problems, such as matrix
inversion or sorting -- the time required as a
function of the relevant parameters, e.g., the size
of matrix
(c)
the number of simultaneous users a system can handle
with an appropriate (hopefully short) response time
and as a function of the specific workload of each
user
(d)
"ease of use" of the system measured, perhaps, by the
length of time that the user requires to respond
during an interactive session with the machine as
a function of system characteristics, and length of
time required for a user to learn how to utilize the
system
The state of the art in performance measures and projections is in
great need of research and development, especially in view of the
problems associated with measuring and predicting performance for
the more advanced systems of the next decade.
There are currently
both hardware and software measuring systems and monitoring systems.
Some of the performance measure objectives are:
18
(a)
achieve a better balance between resident and
transient routines
(b)
identify areas of poor overlap of operation of
the central processing unit and operation of
input/output (I/O) devices
(c)
locate bottlenecks that degrade system performance
(d)
determine when and why peaking problems occur
(e)
find out whether other I/O devices can be more
effective
(f)
balance the foreground and background in teleprocessing systems
(g)
.
(6)*
discover what routines use the greatest t~me
In The Economics of Computers ( 7 ) William F. Sharpe discussed
various measures of performance and predictions of performance; it
includes statistical mixes of instructions, Knight's formula for the
measure of "computing power:' and the relationship between higher
level goals and systems characteristics.
Allan Scherr in An Analysis
of Time-Shared Computer Systems, (8 ) presents work performed several
years ago on the older Project MAC Time-Sharing System.
He includes
his own method for metering the system, taking statistics on the
system's performance, and modeling/simulating the system.
Future advances in technology will tend to alleviate the problem
by the use of advanced and relatively cheap hardware to meter systems
and to run sensitivity studies at a reasonable cost.
However, new
systems will also grow more complex with advancing technology and
will be more difficult to model in any precise manner.
*Reprinted
At the same
with Permission of DATAMATION ~, copyright Technical
Publishing Company, Barrington, Illinois 60010, 1971.
19
time, users will expect better performance, evaluation, and prediction.
One example of this situation may be found in the computer communication systems of the future.
Knowing the response time of a time-sharing
system will permit communication links to be freed for other use and
the user brought back to his interaction with the system at a predicted
time.
This would save communication costs when one pays for the time
the line is tied up, even if he is not using it continually.
In
addition, it would allow the communications system to treat many of
the on-line users as relatively short telephone calls, rather than
long-time calls.
Since the telephone system is in general designed
for many relatively short calls this can be an important factor with
respect to overall communications service.
Great emphasis on throughput rates, balanced systems, high
utilization for components may be quite important; but far more
important is the increased performance or effectiv~ness of the
human being who is being assisted by the computer system.
This
is an even more complicated perfonnance measurement and evaluation
problem.
Research and development efforts directed towards increasing
ease of use of the system and ease of learning operation of the system
should be quite beneficial.
These characteristics may be measured
by the length of time it takes the user to accomplish a task relevant
to him or to learn a new useful systems feature.
Projected State of the Art
The following points of information give some indication 6f what
can be expected:
(a)
The measure used by Kahn and Wiener, that of the size of
the memory space divided by the basic nadd time," has
increased by a factor of ten every two or three years.
While this cannot continue indefinitely, some of the
other techniques of performance, such as parallel
20
processing, will continue the overall acceleration of
performance for a decade or more, although the rate of
increase may not be constant.
(b)
Exhibit 4 illustrates the general trend in the cost
effectiveness of the central processor unit (CPU) plus
primary storage.
(c)
In addition, George B. Bernstein's A Fifteen Year Forecast of Information Processing Technology,(9) contains
approximately 50 pages listing projected events. Many
of these events were considered when making the projections in this chapter.
(d)
The general state of projected performance for hardware
will be more complicated when comparing performance
measures with today's system measures. Not only will
the basic hardware elements increase in performance but
the overall design and operational philosophy will be
significantly modified. This means that some of the
measures, such as instructions per second, will have a
somewhat different meaning. The following is an estimate
of expected performance in the 1980 to 1985 time frame:
(1)
Processor systems will perform at an approximate
range of 100 million to upwards of a billion or more
instructions per second. This would be a function
of the sophistication of the instruction set, the
number of CPU's, designs such as parallel/array and
pipeline, etc.
(2)
The information storage systems will have a hierarchy extending from the ordinary systems of today
up through extremely fast and large memory subsystems; cycle times can be expected to be measured
in nanoseconds.
(3)
The computer systems will be capable of handling
up to tens of thousands of on-line devices depending
upon the overall systems design and the function of
the individual on-line element.
Availability of such computing power will allow the performance of useful calculations which are not feasible
today. An advanced computer, ILL lAC IV, being built by
the University of Illinois, will be capable of executing
21
COST/EFFECTIVENESS
$10
~-
TYPEWRITER: COST PER MILLION CHARACTERS
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ __
$1
CPU/STORAGE: COST PER MILLION ADDITIONS
10c
Source: THE ECONOMICS OF
COMPUTERS by W. F. Sharpe,
Columbia University Press,
1969, p. 323.
1c
.1c
.01c
.001c
~----~~----~------~------~----
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
YEAR
ESTIMATED TRENDS IN COST/EFFECTIVENESS. SOURCE:
PAUL ARMER, "COMPUTER ASPECTS OF· TECHNOLOGICAL
CHANGE, AUTOMATION AND ECONOMIC PROGRESS," A
REPORT PREPARED FOR THE NATIONAL COMMISSION ON
TECHNOLOGY, AUTOMATION AND ECONOMIC PROGRESS,
SEPTEMBER 1965, p. 6.
EXHIBIT 4
THE TREND IN COST EFFECTIVENESS
,OF COMPUTER SYSTEMS CENTRAL PROCESSOR
UNIT AND PRIMARY STORAGE COMPONENTS
22
over 100 million instructions per second. D. L. Slotnick
in liThe Fastest Computer," gives a number of examples of
calculations requiring
such power. One of them is des.
cribed in the following quotation from his article."
~
A quite different assignment for ILLIAC IV
is numerical weather prediction, which early computer theorists such as John von Neumann regarded
as one of the important motivations for their work.
Numerical techniques developed over the past two
decades are now in daily use and yield good results
for periods of from 24 to 48 hours. These techniques involve the simulation of complex atmospheric
processes by a mathematical model that combines extensive knowledge of the relevant physical processes with sophisticated mathematics and advanced
computer technology . . . •
The complexity of these models is ilustrated
by the operational model of the atmosphere used
by the National Weather Service in its daily
forecasts. The atmosphere over the Northern
Hemisphere is represented by six horizontal
slices ranging from sea level to the stratosphere. Each slice contains 3,000 points at
which initial values of wind velocity, temperature and pressure are inserted. The computer
then applies the appropriate equations to predict what the velocity, temperature and pressure
will be in the future at 10-minute intervals. A
24-hour forecast requires about an hour of computing time on a computer that can execute
300,000 instructions per second, or more than a
billion instructions in all.
If the distance between the grid points were
to_ be halved, the number of grid points would be
quadrupled and the computer time needed for a
24-hour forecast would be increased eightfold.
In other words, a third of a day would be consumed merely in making a 24-hour prediction.
If the model yields significantly better shortrange predictions than the 3,000-point model now
*From "The Fastest Computer," D. L. Slotnick. Copyright 1971 by
Scientific American, Inc. All rights reserved~
23
in use, there is a good chance that numerical
forecasts can be extended to five days with
an accuracy comparable to that of the 48-hour
forecasts now being generated.
The actual computer techniques of weather
forecasting can be advanced by testing them
on ILLIAC IV. Until now investigators have
been reluctant to experiment with a new predicting technique when it might involve many
computer simulations, each of which could
take up to 100 hours of computing time. When
ILL lAC IV can reduce the running time from
100 hours to one hour, ex~ensive experimentation will become feasible. (10)
(e)
The general projected state of software for the 1980 to
1985 time· frame is the following:
(1)
many advanced and "easy-to-use" languages and
"canned routines" dedicated to particular professionssuch as law, medicine, education and decision-making enterprises (This software will be
heavily user-oriented and essentially speak the
user's language rather than the programmer's
language.)
(2)
extremely sophisticated operating and data management systems which will, in the general case, perform in such a manner that the user will not know
whether certain programs or subsets of the data
bank are being operated from one type of storage
medium or another
(3)
a possibility that the greater percentage of what
we call software (i.e., computer programs) will
actually be part of what we now call hardware of
the system.
(f)
As regards techniques, concepts, and philosophy of operation, the situation in the 1980 to 1985 time frame will
have as its mai~ philosophy of operation a distributed
computer-based information network/data bank.
(g)
Minicomputers (sophisticated terminals, intelligent
terminals, sophisticated electronic desk calculator)-both the capability and the prevalence of these devices
should be enormously expanded in the time frame under
24
consideration, i.e., 1980 to 1985. These devices
should be capable of performance of the order of magnitude of medium to larger computers of the 1965 to 1970
time frame. The prefix "mini" is a relative term with
respect to physical size (volume), cost, and performance
relative to the state of the art of a particular time
frame. The device in question, whether called minicomputer, sophisticated terminal, or intelligent terminal, in the 1980 to 1985 time frame should be capable
of the following:
(l)operation in accordance with an internally stored
program
(h)
(2)
ordinary arithmetic operations
(3)
probable inclusion of floating point and elementary
mathematical and statistical calculations
(4)
performance of a certain level of encryption when
appropriate
(5)
control of fairly sophisticated input/output devices, audio visual displays, etc.
(6)
checking sophisticated programs for at least the
more obvious errors before the programs are sent
to the shared computer-based information processing network system
There will be a range in the performance of the mlnlcomputers; some of them may serve as central units for
many relatively simple terminals in what might be called
a "mininetwork."
The following quotation indicates the present and projected
financial picture of the minicomputer to the mid 1970's:
It is not a simple matter to crash the growth-and-profit
party in the computer industry, as so many companies have
learned. A ticket at the main door means competing with
International Business Machines Corp. and costs hundreds
of millions in venture capital. But tiptoeing in the side
door when the major systems makers are not looking sometimes
works. In the last four years, at least 75 manufacturers
25
have done so with minicomputers--small machines priced
from $3,000 to $25,000.
Some of the newcomers seem to have staying power,
though many will get bounced. Together in the computer
field, they have built a subindustry that grew from $25million a year in 1967 to well 'over $250-million in 1970.
Through the business,downturn that caused a drop in the
over-all dollar value of computer shipments last year,
the minis maintained a 30% annual growth rate. And,
despite a swift, continuing price eros{on, even th~
cautious analysts of the industry expect sales of minis
to top $l-billion a year by the mid-1970's.
Their bullish mood got an added lift when IBM entered
the minicomputer market late last year. (11)
As of August 1970 there are more than 7,500 units in use. (12)
The impact of-the minicomputer is substantial even today.
During the 1975 to 1985 time frame it should increase to such an
extent that the man-machine relationship will be enhanced significantly by the combination of the individual with his "intelligent i l terminal/minicomputer.
Minicomputer stand-alone capabilities
will be enhanced significantly when coupled with the information
processing network.
In summation, the minicomputers will be capable of performing
most of the arithmetic workload at the remote site itself and of
serving as an easy-to-use terminal to the large network and data
bank.
These systems will be capable of performing many of the
tasks that are performed by today's computing centers.
Breakthroughs and Directed Research and Development Needed,
Including Technical, Institutional, and Economic
The desired advances indicated in this list are from the point
of view of service to the user or consumer rather than particular
hardware advances which may be part of on-going R&D effort of the
various computer vendors.
Breakthroughs and directed research and
26
development which would be instrumental for achieving effective manmachine interaction and "information networks" are the following:
(a)
voice input, at least to a limited extent and at nonprohibitive cost to the user
(b)
relatively inexpensive sophisticated terminals/minicomputers
(c)
improved capability for verification and subsequent official
certification of software performance (This research and
analysis is directed to attacking the problem of "debugging completely" or at least with some acceptable certification, large complex software systems.)
(d)
increased acceptance on the psychological and political
level of the most innovative technology
(e)
decrease in the cost of software development
(f)
decrease in the cost of reliable, multiple-font optical
character readers
(g)
a practical and economically viable solution to the
security/privacy problem
(h)
advances in user-oriented modeling/simulation and basic
understanding of some of the relationships in the complex
"real-world"
(i)
performance standards and measures for hardware and software
(j)
advances in methods for educating programmers for performance on advanced systems
(k)
progress towards higher efficiency in the implementation of
the highest level user-oriented computer languages/systems
(These languages/systems are closest to the nonprofessional
programmer user and, although simple to use, may cause
significant complexity and possible inefficiencies from
the point of view of the internal system.)
Environment Characteristics
Following are some items which are exogenous to the technology
itself, but which will have great influence on the future development
of computer-communications networks:
27
(a)
rulings of government regulatory agencies and government
policies with respect to computers and communications
(b)
legislation with respect to protection of privacy in data
banks
Physical-Resource Data
Exhibits 5, 6, and 7 illustrate some computer-communications
service networks.
These figures illustrate, first, the currently
operational FBI National Crime Information Center (NCIC) law enforcement network; second, the Department of Defense, ARPA, experimental
development network; and third, a currently operational commercial
CDC network.
Other examples of present networks include the
following:
(a)
The GE commercial network
(b)
the NASA network
(c)
The AEC network at the Lawrence Radiation Laboratory,
Livermore, California
0eerational Data
The new technology will be offered by:
(a)
the computer and communication vendors including
IBM, CDC, UNIVAC, RCA, Honeywell Information
Systems, AT&T, etc.
(b)
companies such as UCC, CSC and others that are
forming their own computer-communications commercial
network systems
(c)
the federal government and its various departments,
as well as the state and local governments (for
internal government use)
28
IOuT"D ... ",OT ...
PIERRE _
(DIVISION OF CRIMINAL
INVESTIGATION)
PHILADELPHIA
CHEYENNE
(POLICE DEPT.l
~~DOVER(STATEPOLICE)
-(S.H.P')
'.
-
DENVER
(POLICE DEPT.)
IADAMSCOUNTY
.. ··S.O.)
~
•
.
PIKESVILLE (STATE POLICE)
ALTIMORE (POLICE DEPT.)
WASHIHCTON, D. C. IPOLICE DEPT.)
IPROYOSTMARSHAL GENERALl
(SECRET SERVICE)
(NA'IAL INVESTIGATIVE SERVICE)
(OFFICE OF SPECIAL INVESTIGATIONS)
WICHITA
(POLICE DEPT,)-
• ALBUQUERQUE
(POLICE DEPT.)
N
\0
P~,,",~~
,""" "'" ....,t)
NCIC POLICY BOARD REGIONS
·(S,H.P.) -
(STATE HIGHWAY PATROL)
"(P.D.)- (POLICE DEPT.)
'''(NYSIIS) ....(S.D.) -
(NEW YORK STATE IDENTIFICATION
AND INTELLI GENCE SYSTEM)
(SHERIFF'S OFFICE)
]
11
~~:r~~~¢~:~~C~::I~S ~~~pulot;on' 53,414,000
~
13 SOUTHERN STATES - Populalian, 46,352,000
~
12 NORTH CENTRAL STI< TES - Populolian, 55,628,000
~
14 WESTERN STATES - Popula'ion, 44,467,000
Source: Federal Bureau of Investigation, November 1970
EXHIBIT 5
NCIC NETWORK
@
•
o
Operational Terminal·· Computer
Operational Terminal·· Manual
Planned Terminal (to be added)
(Shaded portions represent areas having immediate
access to NCIC through local or state computers.>
EXHIBIT 6
ARPA NETWORK (GREATLY SIMPLIFIED)
TIME-SHARING COMPUTER CENTERS TO BE INTERCONNECTED
BY THE ARPA NETWORK
~Location
Orpnization
Compuw.
Carnegie-Mellon University
Dartmouth College
Harvard University
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Stanford University
University of California at Berkeley
University of California at Los Angeles
University of California at Santa Barbara
University of Illinois
University of Michigan
University of Utah
Washington University
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Hanover, New Hampshire
Cambridge, Massachusetts
Cambridge, Massachusetts
Stanford, California
Berkelev, California
Los Angeles, California
Santa Barbara, California
Urbana, Illinois
Ann Arbor. Michigan
Salt Lake City, Utah
St. Louis. Missouri
UNIVAC 1108, IBM 360/67. G-21
GE635
SDS 940. IBM 360/50, DEC PDP-1
IBM 7094. DEC PDP-6/10. GE 645
DEC PDP-&/10
505-940, SCC 6700
SDS Sigma-7
IBM 360/50
Burroughs B-6500/ILLIAC IV
IBM 360/67
UNIVAC 1108
Speci'll Equipment
Advanced Research Projects Agency
Bell Telephone Laboratories
Bolt Beranek & Newman, Inc.
M.I.T. Lincoln Laboratory
RAND Corporation
Stanford Research Institute
System Development Corporation
Washington, D. C.
Murray Hill. New Jersey
Van Nuys, California
Cambridge. Massachusetts
Santa Monica, California
Palo Alto. California
Santa Monica, California
DEC 338
GE 645
SDS 940. DEC PDP-10
TX-2. IBM 360/67
DEC PDP-6. IBM 1800
SOS 940 (2)
IBM 360/50-65
Stuart L. Mathison and Philip M. Walker, Computers
and Telecommunica tions: Issues in Public Policy,
Prentice-Hall, Inc., Englewood Cliffs, N. J., 1970,
pp. 130, 131.
- ..- .. _.. _.. _
d-..
Source:
........................
,
. . ._!,..-.
._.
i
I
~.
I
'-.
-·-·r"-"-"-·-"~'-'f,.~.
'"
I
r.j \.. . ,(_._._._.__._./L.-.-.----
'-._
i
-''"'7'-,-, ...... &...,
!
I
!
I
I
I
I
'-'-''7"'-
I
;
i
L'
•
I
._-,
,
L._.
-1"-'--'-'
-_._. __
i
!
,
i
r--·-·-·-·-·"!.~::·.::;-·-·-·-·-·-·-l.-'-'-'-·-·l
I'
i
~
.
,
~I
.,
,II .
.!
System Dev.lopment
.J.
Corpor,.ion
,
.
.......;!
!-._.-.-
..............- .. I ,,_ ._.-._._.1
~_J
o
User Terminal
•
Time-Sharing Computer Center
6
~
Interface Message Processor (IMP)
lJ. '"\,.,
_el-
Shared Telpak Line
I!
30
•
_
W
t-'
~
DS')
o
DATA CENTERS
@CDC6600
_
CDC WIDEBAND LINES
_ _
• CDC WIDE BAND LINES ON ORDER
® C D C 6400
o
•
CDC 3300
OTHER SYSTEMS
Source:
....... CDC VOICE-GRADE LINES
S
NUMBER OF MULTIPLE CDC LINES
EXHIBIT 7
CYBERNET NETWORK
The Control Data Corporation.
Users
The range of potential users of computer-based information
networks is enormous and would include almost everybody from the
President to the average housewife.
are:
Some examples of other users
medical doctors, lawyers, educators, decision makers, and
policy analysts.
It is expected that various age groups and
many in the professions will be major users and the geographical
distribution will be a function of both population density and
professional distribution.
Time Phasing
During the decade of the 1970's both local time-sharing systems
and networks of computer systems will be further developed technically and accepted by a substantial number of potential users.
By
1980 to 1985 the network concept should be in the full application
stage; i.e., the technological innovation will have been accepted
by a substantial number of potential users.
In addition, some of
the institutional barriers created by social, political, and
psychological inertia will have been overcome, and the general
operational performance will be in a fairly substantial state of
user-oriented development.
Additional information on time phasing
is presented in the following sections.
Financial Information
Detailed planning data on RDT&E investment and operational costs
are usually of a proprietary nature; but general overall costs and
plans have been described in the open literature.
Some specific
numbers pertaining to various computer/information network systems
are illustrated in Exhibit 8.
It should be noted that this table is for illustrative purposes
only and that some of the organizations have already significantly
32
EXHIBIT 8
RECENT ANNOUNCEMENTS OF MAJOR SIGNIFICANCE TO THE
COMPUTER UTI LlTY CONCEPT
February 1969 Travelers Corp. establishes a subsidiary, TravCom,
Inc., to provide "total information systems" to
medical institutions, local government operations,
educational institutions and businesses, but concentrating initially on psychiatric hospitals. "The
company is prepared to invest $50 million In the
subsidiary and expects it to achieve annual sales
of at least $100 million within 5 years."
(Wall Street Journal Feb. 26, 1969)
February 1969 Control Data Corp. inaugurates a national com·
puter network called Cybernet linking computers in
25 cities including six 6600 computers. The system
valued at $50 million will provide time-sharing and
remote computing services. Cybernet's "sales
strategy will be to displace existing installed computers and to absorb additional workload."
(Business Week, Feb. 8, 1969)
January 1969 Honeywell, Inc., announces its entry into the electronic data processing services field. "The new
division will offer shared computer time, batch
processing services, contract software and programming assistance ond customized soft"":are
packages." A company executive "cited industrial
surveys indicating that the information services
field would nearly triple in volume to about $27
billion in 1972 from its 1967 level of $950 million."
(New York Times, Jan. 29, 1969)
December 1968 Greyhound Corp; enters the time-sharing field
through its subsidiary, Greyhound Computer Corp.
The company's initial success hod been in the computer leasing field.
(Business Automation News Report, Dec. 23, 1968)
November 1968 "Westinghouse has begun offering remote batch
processing service to outside users through its Information Systems laborotory ... Certain Westinghouse-developed engineering design analysis programs will also be made available. Plans call for
the addition of other time-sharing services."
(Datamation, November 1968)
August 1968
Computer Sciences Corp. makes its move toward
establishing a nationwide time-sharing network.
Credit searching and reporting and conversational
engineering/scientific computation will be the first
services to be offered at 20 computer centers across
the U. S. CSC ordered Univac 1108 equipment
worth an estimated $50 million.
(Dotamation, Aug. 1968)
August 1968
NCR announced that it would double the number
of its on-line data centers to 10 in a $3 million expansion program. The on-line data centers serve
banks and savings and loan companies. With
centers other than on-line the company has 25 in
the United States-Canada network. Abroad there is
another network of 31 dota centers.
(Dotamation, August 1968)
May 1968
ITT announces its time-sharing system called Reactive Terminal Service with plans to moke the
service available throughout the nation within 18
months.
(Data Systems News, May 13, 1968)
April 1968
Univac.reveals its plans for a nationwide network
of computer service centers that will be linked via
communications lines, integrating lorge and small
computers. "Services to be offered include designing, programming and processing specific data
processing applications for customers."
(Computers and Automation, April 1968)
March 1968
General Telephone and Electronics declares its intentions of setting up seven regional dato processing service bureaus throughout the country_
"Much of their workload will come from GT&E
operoting companies but an apparently substantial
percentage of available computer time will be sold
to ~nks, credit unions, and other financial institutions ... The bureaus will provide both local and
on-line dp services."
(Datamation, March 1968)
Source: Ralph L. Zani and William M. Zani, "Towards the Computer
Utility: Evolution, or Revolution," Datamation, October 1969,
p., 132 (reprinted with permission of Datamation @, copyright
Technical Publishing Company, Barrington, Illinois 60010, 1969).
33
modified their plans.
Nonetheless, it shows the order of magnitude
of the costs involved.
A specific illustration can be drawn from
GE's involvement in the time-sharing business •
..• Recently the company announced that it would spend at
least $100 million in the next five years to expand its
new time-sharing computer net~ork, which now services
forty-two cities nationwide through a single Cleveland
"supercenter." GE intends to widen its coverage to a
total of 150 cities in 1971 by opening two more centers
in Los Angeles and Teaneck, New Jersey. The company
has successfully tested a network link to London via
satellite, and hopes to expand the system to a number
of cities overseas.
GE has already invested $100 million in timesharing equipment alone and holds a third of the $200million-plus U.S. market.(13)
Another example comes from AT&T's effort to build a largescale comprehensive computer-based network information system.
AT&T also uses commercial computer extensively for
internal business data processing. It has approximately
600 such general purpose computers installed, and has
established a 500-man task force to develop a comprehensive computer-based, internal Business Information
System (BIS)fr (*For background on the BIS concept,
see AT&T, The Bell System's Approach to Business
Information Systems, New York, 1965.) (14)
COMPLEMENTARY TECHNOLOGY
The technology component that complements this computer technology assessment includes the following:
communications, microform,
video (TV), graphical display, and facsimile.
Communications Technology
Present Time-Frame
The following points of information are presented as a summary:
34
(a)
Relatively slow speed (e.g., teletype speed) and
voicegrade communications are plentiful and reasonably
economical, at least for local communications. There
is, however, a question of reliability.
(b)
Fifty-kilobit lines have been made available for
current remote multiple-access systems.
(c)
The cost of long-distance communications is still
a significant bottleneck.
(d)
Encryption devices can be properly interfaced with
present communication systems for most reasonable
rates of data transfer.
(e)
The interaction between and among the U. S. Government
agencies, industry suppliers of communication services, user
organizations, computer and network vendors on the questions
of policy constraints and costs is a dominant consideration.
(f)
The adequacy of communication service in a computer
information network at the present time can be characterized by Exhibits g(15) and 10(16).
(g)
The relationship between the theoretical capacity or
maximum rate of information transmission and actual
implementation is presented in the following quotation:
According to theory (the Shannon-Hartley
Law) the capacity, or maximum rate of information transmission at an arbitrarily small
error rate, of a bandlimited communication
channel is determined by its bandwidth and
by the signal-to-noise ratio present on the
channel.* Using efficient signal encoding
procedures and other techniques to obtain
high signal-to-noise performance, data
transmission rates of more than ten times
channel bandwidth, th~t is,
30,000 bits per second over a 3000 Hz
voice grade telephone channel, are theoretically possible. In practice, however,
such speeds are not attained, due to the
limitations of the state of the art, and
the complexity and consequent cost of
35
EXHIBIT 9
CURRENTLY AVAILABLE COMMON CARRIER COMMUNICATIONS
OFFERINGS USEFUL FOR DATA TRANSMISSION
Data transfer rate
in bits per second
National switched networks
Telegraph grade
TWX (AT&T Tariff F.C.C. No. 133)
Telex (W.U. Tariff F.C.C. No. 240)
45-150
50
Voice grade
Message toll telephone (AT&T Tariff F .C.C. No. 263)
WATS (AT&T Tariff F.C.C. No. 259)
Broadband exchange (W.U. Tariff F.C.C. No. 246)
50,000
Dataphone 50 (AT&T)
National leased network (AT&T Tariff
1,200-2,000*
1,200-2,000*
1,200-2,400
F.e.e. No. 260, W.U. Tariff F.e.e. No. 237)
45-180
Telegraph grade
1,200-.9,600*
Voice grade
Broadband
12 voice channels (Series 8000)
60 voice channels (TELPAK C)
240 voice channels (TELPAK D)
50,000
250,000
500,000
*One of the factors limiting the data transfer rate on a given communications channel is the
performance characteristics of the modem interface device at the endpoints of the line. In the
near future, commercially available modems will allow data transfer rates of 3,600 bps on
switched, voice-grade lines. Modems operating above 4,800 bps on voice-grade lines are
infrequently used today because of their high cost and sensitivity to time-varying channel
characteristics.
Source:
Stuart L. Mathison and Philip M. Walker, Computers and
Telecommunications: Issues in Public Policy, PrenticeHall, Inc., Englewood Cliffs, N. J., 1970, p. 155.
36
EXHIBIT 10
COMPARISON OF DATA PROCESSING EQUIPMENT OPERATION SPEEDS
WITH AVAILABLE TRANSMISSION LINE SPEEDS
Data processing
equipment l
Operating speed
Available transmission
line
(bits/sec.)
Card reader
300 CPM 2
600CPM
1000CPM
Present transmission
line speed
(bits/sec.)
3,200
Voice: switched
leased
2,000
2,400
6,400
Voice: switched
leased
Broadband:
leased only
2,000
2,400
10,600
50,000
Voice: switched
leased
Broadband:
leased only
50,000
2,000
2,400
Card punch
300CPM
3,200
Voice: switched
leased
2,000
2,400
500CPM
5,300
Voice: switched
leased
2,000
2,400
Paper tape reader
75
Telegraph or Teletypewriter:
switched and
leased
110/180
2,800
Voice: switched
leased
2,000
2,400
4,000
Voice: switched
leased
Broadband:
leased only
2,000
2,400
8,000
Voice: switched
leased
Broadband:
leased only
50,000
2,000
2,400
50,000
Source: Booz, Allen & Harni1ton~ Inc., Study of Interdependence
of Communications Services, quoted in Mathison and Walker, ~.
cit. pp. 157-159.
37
EXHIBIT 10 (Continued)
COMPARISON OF DATA PROCESSING EQUIPMENT OPERATION SPEEDS
WITH AVAILABLE TRANSMISSION LINE SPEEDS
Data processing
equipment 1
Operating speed
Available transmission
line
(bits/sec.)
Paper tape punch
Printer
300 LPM 3
600 LPM
1000 LPM
Teletypewriter
Cathode ray tube
Magnetic tape
transport
Present transmission
line speed
(bits/second)
75
Telegraph or Teletypewriter:
switched and
leased
110/180
800
Voice: switched
leased
2,000
2,400
Voice: switched
leased
Broadband:
leased only
2,000
2,400
6,000 to
10,600
19,400
45-150
8,000
150-3,000
120,000
60,000
Voice: switched
leased
Broadband:
leased only
60,000
Teletypewriter:
switched
and leased
45-150
Voice: switched
leased
Broadband:
leased only
Teletypewriter:
switched and
leased
Voice: switched
leased
Broadband:
leased only
Broadband (Telpak C)
leased only
38
2,000
2,400
2,000
2,400
50,000
110/180
2,000
2,400
60,000
250,000
EXHIBIT 10 (Concluded)
COMPARISON OF DATA PROCESSING EQUIPMENT OPERATION SPEEDS
WITH AVAI LAB LE TRANSM ISSION LI N E SPEEDS
Data processing
1
equipment
Operating speed
Available transmission
line
(bits/sec. )
Magnetic tape transport (continued)
240,000
480,000
720,000
960,000
1,440,000
2,720,000
Disk units
1,248,000
2,496,000
Drum units
1,000,000
8,000,000
Central processors
2,000,000
6,400,000
16,000,000
1.
2.
3.
4.
Present transmiaion
line speed
(bits/sac.)
Broadband (Telpak C)
leased only
Broadband (Telpak D)
leased only4
Broadband (Telpak D)
leased only4
Broadband (Telpak D)
leased only4
Broadband (Telpak D)
leased only4
Broadband (Telpak D)
leased only4
250,000
500,000
500,000
500,000
600,000
500,000
Broadband (Telpak 0)
leased only4
Broadband (Telpak D)
leased only4
'500,000
Broadband (Telpak D)
leased only4
Broadband (Telpak D)
leased only4
500,000
Broadband (Telpak D)
leased only4
Broadband (Telpak 0)
leased only4
Broadband (Telpak D)
leased only4
500,000
500,000
500,000
500,000
600,000
Includes most commonly used data processing equipment.
CPM: cards per minute
LPM lines per minute
There is no standard modem tariffed for use with Telpak 0 service at this time. Modems for
Telpak 0 require special order from the common carrier.
39
encoding equipment necessary to approach
theoretical transmission limits. 'For
example, on a leased voice grade line the
maximum data transfer rate actually possible
today is 2400 bits per second, using modems
available from the carriers, or 9600 bits
per second using modems available from
several independent manufacturers.
1see e.g., James Martin, Telecommunications
and the Computer, Englewood Cliffs, N. J.
Prentice-Hall, Inc., 1969, Chapter 11; also
John M. Wozencraft and Irwin M. Jacobs,
Principles of Communications Engineering,
New York, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 1965
Chapters 5 and 6.)(17)
Projected State of the Art
By the 1980 to 1985 time frame the following conditions should
illustrate a summary of the state of the art:
(a)
Communications capability will be increased through
communication satellites. An indication of the
interest in domestic communication satellite systems
is the number of applications to the FCC. This list
currently includes: 1) Communications Satellite
Corporation (COMSAT); 2) AT&T/COMSAT: 3) Western
Union Telegraph Corporation;, 4) RCA Globecom/RCA
Alascom; 5) Microwave Communications, Inc./
Lockheed Aircraft Corporation; 6) Hughes Aircraft
Corporation/General Telephone System; 7) Western
Telecommunications, Inc.; 8) TV networks (tentative);
9) Fairchild-Hiller Corporation. (18)
(b)
Microwave systems will provide greater capability.
(c)
Digital networks will present considerable capability.
(Even today the Bell System T-Carrier system has
considerable capacity as revealed in the following
quotation.):
Bell has installed 200,000 circuit
miles of T-l carrier, which has a capacity
of 1.544 megabits per second. T-2 carrier
40
will transmit 6.3 megabits per second over
two telephone wire pairs and will be introduced in 1970. T-4 carrier will transmit
600 megabits per second over a coaxial
cable and will be introduced in the early
1970's. (19)
(d)
Laser and wave-guide systems will permit a considerable increase in capacity.
Exhibit 11 illustrates a potential sequence of events in telecommunications progress.
In the President's Task Force on Communications
Policy it was stated:
For U.S. Domestic Services, Paired Wire is Likely to
be the Dominant MOde on Fixed Capacity Routes of
Fewer than 500 Circuits; Microwave Between 500 and
15,000; Coaxial Cable Between l5~000 and 80,000;
and Wave Guides Above 80,000.(20)
In addition, the cost trends in terrestrial transmission, as illustrated in that same report, are shown in Exhibit 12.
In a study for
Datran (The University Computing Corporation subsidiary) by Booz,
Allen & Hamilton, there was an estimated increase in data calls by
1980 of approximately an order of magnitude.
By contrast, the
telephone company is predicting an increase by a factor of two in
their calls within ten years. (21)
It has been stated that AT&T is
making quite an extensive survey of the future data communication
market,but no detailed data has been released as far as is known
at the present time.
Exhibits 13 and 14 give one illustration of
the forecasted number of data terminals by type of location and
device, and, in addition, illustrate the forecasted call volume
by economic segment.
The foregoing information, including projected capabilities and
requirements, must all be considered in the light of interaction
between policy and technology as well as economics.
41
There are problems
EXHIBIT 11
THE SEQUENCE OF INVENTIONS IN TELECOMMUNICATIONS
10II
I
I
,
I
,
Losers?
;1(1
I:::--- One voice chonnel is token as being equivalent
~
to 2000 bits per second in plotting these points
/'
carrying
...-- 100,000 voice channels or equivalent-=
~
F
~
:/
-,
I
I
'
_
,
I
I
~
I
-
I
I
I
-
I
f-
I-
V
~
~
I-
10 ~
I
lines first constructed
/.tI. ~- Telephone
I
I
/..
I
I
I
~
o
~
I
ITT
T
I
i-Carrie( telePhOny, first used: 12 voice channels on one wire pair
l-
a.
I
Coaxial coble links carrying 600 voice channels
/f/
I
U
I
highways carrying 32,000 voice channels--;;
!'§
100
satellites
~
I
I
I
I
'Microwave links carrying 1800 voice channels
I
g
;
I
'" '" Communication
lL-
V~ Today's coaxial coble and microwave
F
Z:'
-
7Plann~d helical waveguides
1
x I_'" '"
l-
~
",'" 1
~'" '"
L-----;;
x
l'=
,
[7'
~
~
_~ ___
--
Baudot multiplex telegraph (6 telegraph machines on one line)
X
I
:
Printing telegraph systems
~
I
-
Early telegraphy: morse code dots and dashes
Oscillating needle telegraph experiments
11
"
-,
I
~
I
-
o
@
o
(5
N
o
N
~
~
o
N
~
o
N
Year
Source: James Martin, Telecommunications and the Computer,
Hall, Inc., Englewood Cliffs, N.J., 1969, p.B.
42
Prentice-
EXHIBIT 12
COST TRENDS IN TERRESTRIAL TRANSMISSION
V')
~
UJ
~
V')
>-
V')
3: 1,000
:z
UJ
a::::
0
LL.
-
UJ
100
-'"
~
~
=>
u
a::::
u
10
0:::
UJ
a...
~
~
V')
0
u
~
:z
LoU
0.1
~
~
V')
u.J
:>
:z
.01
0.1
10
100
1,000
THOUSANDS OF CIRCUITS
Source: President's Task Force on Communications Policy, Staff Paper I A Survey of Telecommunications Technology, PB-184-412, June 1969.
43
FORECASTED NUMBER OF DATA TERMINALS
FORECASTED NUMBER OF REMOTE DATA TERMINALS
TYPE OF DEVICE
TYPE OF LOCATION
2,500
2,500
2,000
2,000
1,500
1,500
DATA
TERMINALS
(0001
1,000
1,000
-,. /.~;i;,f¥f}'t:;;;~
~~.the following:
(a)
the ratio of the pe~cent, of the total budget allocatep
to defense vs. that allocated to the public sector
(b)
the ratio of the percentage change in defense budget ,vs.
the percentage change in ~he pubiic sector budge~ over
the next decade
National Health Policy
Since one of the major applications of the computer-based
information networks is their potential use in medicine, the
58
assumption relating to national health policy can easily dominate
the situation.
An example of this might be called "reverence
for life and health" when applied to the following type of
problem:
if, through the use of advanced computer technology, one
is able to treat more patients and extend their lives, then it
might be shown that as a first-order effect, there would be a
financial gain to society.
But some might argue that, first,
this contributes to the overpopulation problem, and that, second,
if this advanced technology assists in extending the lives of
the aged, there will be an additional financial burden on society.
This is actually a general problem in national health policy and
is not limited to advanced computer network assistance.
It will
be the assumption for this study that our national health policy
will definitely include "reverence for life and health."
Thus,
even if additional resources must be spent caring for individuals
whose lives have been saved and prolonged through the assistance
of advanced computer technology, the extension of life and better
health will definitely be considered a benefit, gain, or
desirable goal.
For a further discussion of this issue see Joshua
Lederberg's article on technology assessment.(30)
Other principal issues are what kind of legislation will
likely be enacted and what impact such legislation will have upon
the health situation.
Some of the measures for this area are the
number of medical schools, their expansion and training programs,
and the hospital expansion program.
Public Order and Justice
The problem of crime, the nation's court case load, and the
general administration of the nation's legal system will have a
major impact on the requirements for the use of advanced computer
59
technology.
Some measures that" might be considered are the
number of crimes committed and the total number of both criminal
and civil court cases.
In addition, the rate of change and total
number of new statutes created are potential measures of these
societal conditions.
Education and Training
The projected level of education of the average citizen and
the amount of training and retraining necessary throughout the
citizen's career will have a major influence on computer-based
information technology applied to this area.
If it is assumed
that the nation will have either education through junior college
or college levels, or massive training programs for adults, impetus
will be created for advanced computer development in this area.
Some of the measures that one might consider are the amount and
type of legislation passed, the number and types of individuals
who must be educated and trained, and the percentage of education
that can be performed within the home through the use of a
terminal.
Another measure would be the projected number of
schools using computers for direct student interaction.
Communications
The communications area is of major relevance to both the
projected policy and the technology.
The types of projections
and/or assumptions one makes about future government policy and
tariffs for the time frame under consideration will play a dominant
role in the development and application of computer-based information networks.
Some of the measures in this area would be the
actual policy conditions laid down by the FCC and such characteristics
of the nation's communication system as extensive use of domestic
60
communication satellites and laser communication facilities.
Citizen Values (Individual, Group, and Societal)
The Acceptance of Technological Change
The acceptance by individuals and groups (and even society
in general) of technological change will tend to dominate the
implementation of the new computer technology under consideration.
If one assumes psychological inertia against these innovations,
then the rate of implementation and the rate of economic success
for entrepreneurs will level off in the near future in the public
market place.
Should citizen acceptance grow at a fast rate,
additional entrepreneurs would enter the competition and the
ectire development would be accelerated.
The set of measures
would include the number of new businesses presenting on-line
computer access services over the next decade, the gross revenues
and the amount of profit for these new businesses.
Opportunity vs. Security
An important assumption will be the general outlook of
society and its members on the issue of the potential opportunities
of economic, social and political advancement through the use of
advanced computer-based technology vs. any tendency to stay with
minimal technological advances in order that threats, real or
imagined, with respect to privacy/security, automation, etc., be
avoided.
Gross Economic Consideration
The overall economic situation for the next ten to fifteen
years would affect the developmental projections for advanced
61
computer technology in the following manner:
(a)
If there is an extended depression or a series of
recessions, then the overall development will be
at a minimal rate.
(b)
If, on the other hand, there is a continually expanding
economy, with one or two relatively short-duration
recessions, the development and implementation will
proceed at a rapid pace~ Some of the measures of
these conditions include the change in GNP and GNP
per capita and unemployment rates. The overall
situation is pertinent, rather than anyone of
these measures or conditions in particular.
Time-utilization Patterns
The work/recreation/education-training patterns of the nation
will impact upon computer-based information networks at least in
terms of time available for the use of training, advanced education
or retraining aided by on-line terminals.
This is, of course,
one of the interactions, since advanced computer systems can
contribute to the shortened work week.
Measures of this condition
would be the length of the work week, e.g., 20 to 30 hours, rather
than the present 40 hours, and the number of hours projected at
the terminal for individuals.
Income Distribution
The assumed personal income will indicate whether individuals
have the necessary financial resources to obtain and maintain
computer terminals.
This can be measured in per capita take-home
pay.
International Competitive Balance
The assumption or projection regarding technological balance
of trade i.s quite important since indirectly advanced computer
62
systems can assist in making industry more productive.
Secondly,
computer syst'ems constitute one of the t~chnology-intensive areas
in which this country enjoys a favorable balance of trade.
Institutional, Political and Legal Factors
The War vs. Peace Situation
The issue of war and peace will ~bviously have major impacts
upon computer-based information networks.
Projected situations
are as follows:
(a)
If there is an all-out nuclear war, ~uch a catastrophe
would totally dominate the entire analysis.
(b)
If there are conventional wars,the results may be
mixed. Major resources would probably be siphoned
from the public sector to the defense sector; thus
the growth rate of computer technology application
may slow down. However, some major advance in
computer-based information networks can also result
from military applications.
(c)
Peace, with perhaps international competition in a broad
sense, would be conducive to steady growth in the develop-·
ment of advanced technology in both the public and private
sectors.
Consumer Protection/Representation
If increasing emphasis is given to the protection of consumer
interest, then this should impact heavily on computer networks and
data batiks, and would be a major consideration in part of the
computer privacy problem.
A measure in this area might be the
number of legal actions initiated and won by consumer representatives.
63
hegal Aspects
At the end of the 1960's, as the use of computers expanded,
a growing number of users found that computer systems fell short
of their expectations; in some instances system errors seriously
disrupted business operations.
Damage suits were filed against
manufacturers and software suppliers at increasing frequency.
According to an article in The Wall Street Journal, for November
30, 1970, lawyers expect more suits to be brought in the future
partly because the public is becoming less tolerant of computer
errors.
(31-)
In one, the plaintiff asked for $70 million in damages ..
With the introduction of computer networks, the adverse effects
of system errors may impact on not one, but several users.
Errors
in a retailer's data base, for example, can propagate into a
supplier's and disrupt both companies' business.
In a situation
where a computer system is integrated into the management
decision-making process in a company, erroneous
data could lead
to wrong decisions, the results of which would be fed back to the
computer and become the basis for making new decisions.
Once an
error is introduced into such an integrated system, a chain
reaction will be started gradually degrading the accuracy of the
systems data base and creating chaos for a company.
Problems of performance specifications, prediction and
measurement and techniques for controlling data base integrity
will, therefore, receive a great deal of attention in the next
decade as the survival of firms and large financial stakes are
involved.
Demographic Factors
The population total will have an impact both from the point
of view of economics, the needs and requirements of the citizen
64
and a potentially larger tax base.
The projected distribution O-f
the population among urban, suburban, and rural areas should have
a maj or impact upon. the computer communications vs.. transportation
analysis.
Some measures for this area are both total population and
its distribution by geopolitical area.
MICROLEVEL PROJECTIONS,
ATTRIBurES, AND ASSUMPTIONS
Microelements are found to overlap with macroelements.
Some
of the micro level elements are details for potential measures for
the previously described macrolevel projections, attributes, and
assumptions.
The checklist of microlevel elements is presented
here to make the me tho dolo gy comp Ie t e .
(a)
number of computers present and projected:"'-Exhib-it 16
illustrates a computer population survey
(b)
number of terminals present and projected--Exhibit 17
illustrates a projection of number of terminals
(c)
communications capabilities present and projected
(d)
government policy and tariffs for the time frame
under consideration
(e)
amount of information and data generated by source data
automation, R&D publications and information generated
for management
(f)
the court caseload
(g)
medical school expansion and training
(h)
hospital expansion
(i)
advances in modeling and simulation and their acceptance
in the higher echelon of decision making
65
(j)
numbers of schools using computers for direct student
interaction
(~)
~mount of capital available for development of
mentcontroL information centers
(1)
amount of capital available for innovative enterprises
such as large time sharing centers and regional or
national networks
(m)
development of legal theory with respect to computers
in particular privacy and software copyright
(n)
development of domestic communication satellites
(0)
development of competitive microwave communications.
systems
(p)
development of standards for preparing, processing and
reporting various kinds of statistical information
(q)
development of general standards for the computercommunications field.
66
manag~
EXHIBIT 16
PRESENT WORLD COMPUTER POPULATION
U. S.
62,500
West Germany
6,100
U.S.S.R.
Wes te rn Europe
24,000
United Kingdom
5,900
Eas t Ge rmany
500
5,500
U.S.S.R
5,500
Japan
5,900
Poland
420
Eastern Europe
1,500
France
4,500
Czechoslovakia
200
12,500
Canada
3,000
Yugoslavia
180
Italy
2,700
Hungary
120
Scandinavia
1,500
Romania
50
Netherlands
1,100
Bulgaria
30
Other
World Total
106,000
0'\
-...J
7,000
"PRESENT WORLD COMPUTER POPULATION (table
at left) combines the author's estimates
for eastern Europe and the U.S.S.R. with
figures compiled by the International
Data Corporation for the rest of the world
as of January, 1970. Of the 62,500 computers shown for the U.S., some 46,500 are
general-purpose machines, the remainder
being "dedicated," or special-purpose,
units. For other countries the figures
represent chiefly general-purpose computers. The middle table, also based on
figures from International Data, lists
the top eight computer users aside from the
U.S. and the U.S.S.R. The table at the right
is the author's estimate of the number of
computers in individual eastern European countries. According to the author, 60 to 80
percent of the computers in western Europe
and the U.S. belong to the "third," or latest,
generation, with the remainder being of the
second generation. In eastern Europe and
the U.S.S.R. fewer than 5 percent are the
latest models whereas some 35 to 38 percent
are still first-:-generatiop machines."
From "Computers in Eastern Europe," Ivan Berenyi.
All rights reserved.
Copyright 1970 by Scientific American,Inc.
EXHIBIT 17
PROJECTIONS OF COCI AND TERMINALS
"These revenues to cornmon carriers from COCI would
derive in large part from communications between computers
and terminals (as opposed to computer-to-computer communication). In 1966 there were 70,000 to 90,000 such terminals,
served by 2,500 computer systems. By 1980, these COCI
systems are expected to grow to 50-75 thousand, with most
being linked to 10-30 terminals. Based on an average of
20 terminals per installation, between 1 and 1.5 million
terminals would be in use in 1980. II
(COCI - Communications-Oriented Computer Installations)
Source:
The GE Submission to the FCC in February 1969, regarding
the matter of the establishment of domestic noncommon-carriercommunication satellite facilities by nongovernmental entities.
68
CHAPTER IV
RELEVANT IMPACT AREAS
The information in this chapter identifies a representative
set of the major impact areas.
The computer field has a huge
variety of applications, as seen in Appendix II, A Sample Catalog
of Computer Applications, and in recent magazine advertisements.
These advertisements describe a collection of computer programs-more than 3,000 at last count--with approximately 300 different
programs for statistical analysis alone, 174 for operations
research, 89 general-business programs for billing, payroll, sales
analysis and the like. (32)
Part B of Appendix II is taken from a
list of over 2,000 kinds of applications of computers that was
published in the Computer Directory and Buyer's Guide issue of
Computers and Automation, November 30, 1970.
Even when the com-
puter field is limited in scope to some of those applications which
are of interest to the user who is not a professional computer programmer, and, limited to the computer-based information processing system network, it still has an enormous variety of impacts.
This can be seen from an examination of Appendix III, Data Base of
Forecasts Pertaining to Development of Computer Technology:
Present--
Year 2000; Exhibit 19, Representative Table of Projected Impacts
from Chapter V; and the various projections, statements, and speculations by a variety of individuals, as indicated in this report.
This suggests that the technology area chosen for the study (although at present only an embryonic subset of the entire area of
computer technology) will be one of the dominant areas of the computer field during the late 1970's and early 1980's.
An example of a current research project which is applying
digital computers to several areas in the behavioral sciences,
including economics, political science, psychology, and others is
69
Project Cambridge.
The following quotation presents a brief sum-
mary of the nature and purpose of the project.
The purpose of the Cambridge Project is to make
digital computers more useful in the behavioral sciences.
For that purpose, the behavioral sciences are defined not by their subject matter but by the methodological problems they share; they are a group of sciences
in which the potential uses of computers seem to have
enough in common so that they should be considered together. At one extreme, parts of history are included-demographic history, for example--and at the other, parts
of neurophysiology. Between them are at least some parts
of all the sciences that are often called behavioral:
sociology, cultural anthropology, political science, economics, and all the branches of psychology--experimental,
social, developmental, and so forth. Some aspects of
the behavior of organizations as it is studied in schools
of management and business administration are included
too. Even that list is not necessarily exhaustive; there
may well be other disciplines in which the potential uses
of computers are similar enough so that they should be
included.
The Cambridge Project is a cooperative effort to
further the progress and application of those sciences
by devising better ways of applying the power of the digital computer to them. It is a cooperative effort in two
senses: the participants come from a number of fields-computer science, statistics, and a variety of behavioral
sciences--and they come from two universities, M.I.T. and
Harvard. All in all, about 45 faculty members and abo~t
130 students and research personnel are taking part. (33)
Chapter III, State-of-Society/Universe Assumptions, Attributes
and Conditions and this chapter, Relevant Impact Areas, should in
many ways be thought of as describing an interacting feedback
system.
Some of the impacts of the computer technology will
probably
ch~nge
the conditions of our society, as well as the
societal constraints accelerating or impeding progress in these
computer applications.
For example, if the computer communications
technology improves the performance-per-resources-expended in the
70
delivery of health care, then it would be appropriate to make
cost/benefits analyses regarding such application of the technology.
Results of the analyses could then guide decision making pertaining
to our national health policy and could very well lead to increased
use of computers in the medical field.
It should be noted that
some of the impacts may be secondary or tertiary in sequence of
events over time but that, nonetheless, some of the later impacts
may very well be of primary or major importance.
We, therefore,
have a situation that includes cross impacts, e.g., the impact
of economic changes upon societal conditions, followed by
higher order and delayed major impacts; taken together they
describe the interaction between technological impacts and societal
conditions.
This can lead to a highly complex and dynamic situation
which would indicate perhaps the need for a simulation model ~ la
Forrester's, Urban Dynamics, and perhaps other models.
This is
discussed in the following chapters.
Exhibit 18 presents an illustration of the interactive nature
of computer technology impact analysis.
The approach in this pilot study is to identify a representative set of some of the major impact areas.
All of the elements
discussed herein are considered major impacts.
The general time
frame considered is again approximately 1965 to 1985 with the
emphasis on the latter 1970's and the 1980 to 1985 period.
Certainly
there can be many more major elements and a much longer list of
minor impacts than are presented in this chapter.
A subset of the macroelements and microelements has been chosen to
illustrate the method involved.
major impact areas and elements.
This subset is representative of
The procedure for the macroimpact
areas is as follows:
71
EXHIBIT 18
THE INTERACTIVE NATURE OF COMPUTER TECHNOLOGY IMPACT ANALYSIS
VALUES,
PRIORITIES
INSTITUTIONALI~
ELEMENTS
l
'
7
.......r
\
. . ,ENVIRONMENTAL
CONn I TIONS
I
'"
--- COMPUTER,...
'1,TECHNOLOGY
.".
I
•
--...
a:
ECONOMIC
FACTORS
DEMOGRAPHY
SOCIAL
ATTRIBUTES
(a)
identify the major area under consideration, such as
societal or economic
(b)
identify the major impact of computer-communications
technologies
(c)
identify a potential set of measures as appropriate
(It is considered more relevant to present a discussion
with some potential measures rather than just a listing
because the relevance, especially with respect to
methodology, can be made clearer in a discussion and
it usually takes a set of measures rather than just a
single measure to adequately describe and/or quantify
the relevant impacts.)
MACROLEVEL IMPACTS
Planning and Policy Formulation:
Values, Goals, Priorities
The extent to which national policy and major decision making
utilize a computer-based information processing network will be an
indication of the extent of the computer-communications technology
impact.
This includes data gathering, establishment of data banks
and presentation of the results of analysis of this data, as well
as the presentation of models and simulation to the decision
makers and their staffs.
The models and simulations can be used
to assist in the formulation of policies which are developed to
achieve national goals, for example, in the health or housing
fields.
Then a modern computer-communications information system
would gather data on the implementation and results of this policy.
The analyzed data would then be compared with program objectives
and a process of iterations and modifications would continue.
This
would exemplify the utilization of an information feedback system
to help shape society and the environment in accordance with
established goals.
73
Some of the measures for evaluating the impact of the technology would be the number of policies which could be examined (perhaps
in simulation form), and the amount of data that would become
available to validate and substantiate program benefit and cost
claims.
Environment
A computer-communications-based information system including
monitoring, data collection, and analysis would potentially have a
major impact upon the quality of our environment.
Large computer
models of the weather system would greatly improve long-range and
large-scale weather prediction.
The monitoring and analysis of
air and water pollution should result in a better understanding
and forecasting of these major problems.
An illustration of what
might be accomplished can be seen from the following:
In the major cities of Japan environmental disruption
caused by air pollution have become serious. Especially
in such large cities as Tokyo, Osaka, etc., it has become
one of the most serious problems which should be immediately solved. The Osaka prefectural government has
installed the collective surveillance system equipped
with telemetering network for the rapid assessment of
air pollution and weather conditions, and for controlling
major pollutant sources.
Only this installation, however, does not suffice
for prevention of air pollution. This project has been
initiated to provide a theoretical base for the air
poll~tion control policy to execute the adequate activities by forecasting pollutant concentration through
electronic computer system. (34)
In the United States, programs of the Federal Government
directed toward abatement of the air pollution problem are under
the cognizance of the Air Pollution Control Office of the
74
Environmental Protection Agency (formerly the National Air
Pollution Control Administration (NAPCA) of the Department of
Health, Education and Welfare).
The need for support from a
computer-communications based information system has been well
established.
The following is quoted from a recent study performed
for NAPCA:
The objectives of a new NAPCA data processing system
are to meet large and growing requirements for automatic
data processing (ADP) capabilities essential to perform
functions related to the achievement of the NAPeA missions.
These missions include defining and measuring air quality,
defining the effects of pollutants, controlling motor
vehicle and stationary pollutant sources, and control
program operation and administration. The system requirements include sorting large files in a highly structured
fashion and providing for their manipulation in a useroriented language, accurate handling of computational
problems, rapid turn-around time, and time-sharing and
teleprocessing capabilities. The principal applications
will be as follows:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Conduct ecological, surveillance and effects
studies,
Gather, store, and retrieve air quality and
emission data,
Conduct and analyze results of motor vehicle
emission tests,
Perform grants administration and control,
Conduct air quality and implementation
planning studies and provide fuel additives
registration,
Provide bibliographic and administrative
support services,
Support process control studies,
Analyze motor vehicle combustion processes and
photochemical reactions, and
Perform meteorological support studies.
These requirements attest to the need for a large centralized ADP system providing rapid access to users for
scientific and data retrieval applications. (35)
75
The impact of computer technology would be measured by the
alleviation of the pollution problem as indicated by the amount
of harmful contaminants rematning after action based upon the
computer-communications system has been implemented.
This would
be a comparison with what might have been expected without such a
monitoring, computing, analysis and action system.
Finally, another indication of the impact of computers on the
environment is illustrated by the following quoted article which
discusses the plan of The World Health Organization (WHO) for an
international air pollution detection and warning system.
The World Health Organization (WHO) has worked for
15 years to get international approval of an air pollution
detection and warning system. The go-ahead finally came
in May 1970 at the 23rd World Health Assembly. Working
with the health specialists are experts at the World
Meteorological Organization (WMO) -- which, like WHO, is
a specialized agency of the United Nations. The WMO,
concentrating on what are considered still unpolluted
areas of the world, will keep track of what is termed
"background pollution."
WHO's task is to collect and analyze data on real
pollution in the cities and other populated areas and
to issue warnings whenever necessary. The system
selected is similar to WHO's influenza warning program.
The air pollution system is based on: two international centers, in London and Washington; three
regional centers, in Moscow, Nagpur and Tokyo; and 20
Laboratories situated in strategic points around the
globe.
WHO's computer will receive world-wide data on air
pollution levels caused by the six major pollutants
selected last October by 30 International experts. These
are: (1) sulphur dioxide; (2) particles such as dust,
soot, etc.; (3) carbon monoxide; (4) oxidants (which
result from reactions induced by sunlight on automobile
exhaust); (5) nitrogen oxides (also emitted by motor
76
vehicle exhaust and central heating systems); and, (6) lead,
a highly toxic product added to motor fuel to prevent
"knocking."
WHO's computer will compare reported levels of these
pollutants to the danger levels programmed into it by
health experts and sound the alarm where necessary. (36)
Demography
The projected computer-communications system could have a major
impact on the population density distribution during the 1980 to 1985
time frame.
This would be a function of the degree to which such a
computer-communications system would replace transportation systems.
There would also be a projected impact on the death rate because of
improved performance of the health system as supported by the projected computer technology.
These impacts could at least in part be measured by increased
longevity (average lifespan) and distance between residences and the
center of a metropolitan area or location of employment.
Economic
Computer technology should exert a very strong economic impact.
Some of the projections and speculations are contained in this document
in Chapter I. Technological Scope Narrowing;
Chapter II, Complementary
Technology; and Chapter V, Exhibit 19, Representative Table of Proiected
Impacts.
Further indication of economic impact is revealed by a projection
made by J. G. Maisonrouge, President of IBM World Trade Corporation,
New York City. (37)
He predicted that the computer industry will
outgross the automobile and petroleum industries and that by the
year 2000 data processing will stand as the world's largest industry.
77
The following quotation gives another indication of economic impact:
Speaking at a symposium on technology and international trade conducted by the National Academy of
Engineering, Maisonrouge added, "Its annual revenues
are already impressive. In the United States alone,
total annual computer revenues -- which include income
from hardware, software, related services and supplies
grew almost 1,100 percent over the last decade from
$975 million to $10.6 billion in 1969."(38)
With respect to the international competitive balance and the
technological balance of trade, the following quotation from
Maisonrouge presents an indication of the situation:
When you further consider that the marketplace
for computers outside the United States is growing at
the rate of 25 percent annually in value of equipment
in use and the foreign markets will account for almost
40 percent of the shipments by U.S.-based manufacturers
this year, you get some feeling for the impact and
potential of computers in international trade. (39)
Another indication of the impact of computers upon U.S. exports
is illustrated by the following quotation.
The basic reason is that in 1969, Commerce Department officials decided computers, peripherals, and software comprise one of six product areas having the greatest
potential for increasing U.S. foreign trade. That
decision led to a voluminous survey of the market for
U. S. hardware and software in 25 countries. The
study, released in September, predicted that total
U. S. hardware exports should reach $1 billion in
1970, and $2 billion in 1974, excluding shipmen~s
by U. S. subsidiaries and licensees abroad. (40)'~
*Reprinted
with permission of Datamation C) , copyright Technical
Publishing Company, Barrington, Illinois 60010, 1971.
78
On the other hand, increased use of computers by other
countries may bring about greater efficiencies in their economic
systems, and they therefore may become more competitive with
the U. S. for world markets for various export commodities.
Finally, a potential major problem area is the requirement
for worker retraining caused by computers/automation.
This impact
will probably become major towards the end of the time frame under
consideration, i.e., during the 1980's.
Some of the measures of economic impacts are the following:
(a)
GNP--absolute and per capita
(b)
time-utilization patterns--allocation of time to work,
recreation, and education, especially the decrease
in both percent and absolute amount devoted to work
and the increase in recreation and education
(c)
percentage of work force requiring retraining
(d)
income distribution--per capita income
(e)
the international balance of trade in the computer
area
Societal
The societal impacts of the projected computer-communication
network are so broad that only a relatively small representative
sample can be mentioned.
Chapters V and VI of this document should
be considered almost simultaneously with this chapter in order that
the picture with respect to computer impacts be made clearer.
Societal impacts would include at least the following subareas or
elements:
national security, economic growth, environment, health,
education, transportation, and safety (e.g., crime).
Some of the
measures of these impacts are contained in the next section of this
chapter.
79
Institutional
The institutional impacts include at least the following categories:
political, legal, administrative, and organizational.
One
of the major institutional impacts as well as societal impact is
the problem of security/privacy in an age permeated by computer-based
information handling and data bank networks.
This presents serious
legal difficulties as discussed in Chapters V and VI.
On the other
hand, the computer technology should greatly assist in the administration of justice, the apprehension of criminals, and the streamlining of our governmental organizations, such as the Congress.
It should be noted that there will probably be a major impact
on the manner in which political campaigns are organized and implemented and potentially with respect to the actual voting structure
and procedure.
Along with potential benefits of this impact there
are problems, e.g., potential cheating in the voting procedure and
vote count.
This is further discussed in the following chapters.
Some of the relevant measures are contained in the following
section.
MICROLEVEL IMPACTS
Microlevel impacts provide a means for developing cost/
benefit analyses relative to the macrolevel impacts.
microlevel impacts quantify the broader impacts.
Sets of
The data collected
in each of the microlevel impact areas can be used to measure the
magnitude of the macrolevel impacts and thus permit associating
dollar values and/or specific benefits with the broad impacts.
80
The following checklist includes only a sample of microlevel
impacts; a more comprehensive list would have to be compiled as
part of a full-scale assessment of computer technology.
.
.
(41)
(a)
volume of sales in computers and communlcatlons
(b)
the potential percent of the major common carrier
(AT&T) future network capacity utilized in computerbased information systems
(c)
number of patients adequately cared for per medical
doctor or per dollar spent on medical care
(d)
level of education of children for any specified age
level
(e)
number of adults re-educated per dollar spent
(f)
number of cases handled in the court system per unit
time and total resources expended
(g)
the dollar volume or other measure of transportation
between residence and office
(h)
changed role of middle manager
(i)
balance of political power between individuals and
small organizations versus large political organizations
(j)
number of patients per hospital resources
(k)
acceleration of research and development and the spread
of technological innovation
(1)
amount of information contained and distributed per
library resource expended
(m)
the amount of information on any individual or groups
of individuals both collected and disseminated in an
economical manner
(n)
the amount of proprietary, classified, or confidential
information released in any unauthorized manner
81
(0)
the number of criminals apprehended and. convicted
(p)
percent and amount in reduction of labor fOrce or
radical change in customary division of time devoted
to labor and to recreation (e.g., IO-hour work week)
(q)
sabotage and industrial espionage
(r)
the complexity and the number of alternative policies
and their implementations which are adequately investigated and communicated to the proper decision makers
(s)
the quantity and quality of technological assessment
studies performed and recommendations implemented
(t)
the num~er of manufacturers of e~uipment a~d t~2)number
of servlce, support and programmlng companles
82
CHAPTER V
INITIAL IMPACT ANALYSIS
The following discussion is presented as part of the
methodology development.
The initial plan was for Chapters V
and VI to be devoted to an initial impact forecast; action,
or control options; and final impact forecast.
However,
during the early research and analysis performed for this study,
it was realized that, although there are many
in~ividual
impact
forecasts for the technology, it would be quite presumptuous
to state some of these predictions and speculations, and then
proceed to use them as the basis for positive sounding or definitive statements about the future, including a final impact
forecast.
This lesson was learned through the analysis of the
literature, and through interaction and discussions with
reviewers.
In addition, it is concluded that there is a need
for a system of models which include dynamic feedback interactions and perhaps some of the higher order impacts as well.
Therefore, Chapter VI includes a rationale showing the logical
requirements for a research, development, and monitoring
program, as well as a discussion of such a program and the
elements of a pr-elimiriary plan.
Chapter VI also describes the
potential evaluation and reevaluation of the research, development, and monitoring program and its interaction with policy
analysis and decision making.
The rest of this chapter is, therefore, devoted to:
(a)
a statement of projected impacts as developed
from the literature research and references and
comments as appropriate
(b)
an expanded statement of one of the special
problems of computer-based information processing
networks, namely, the security/privacy problem.
83
PROJECTED IMPACTS FROM THE LITERATURE RESEARCH
The Representative Table of Projected Impacts, Exhibit 19,
includes 70 items from a dozen separate sources, which are
listed at the end of the table.
These items were obtained from
the literature during the research and analysis for initial impacts.
One could gather an even larger list, if appropriate, but this
table illustrates both potential benefits and problems.
Sufficient
evidence from this preliminary analysis and judgments is presented
to warrant the conclusion that a plan for organizing action options
including a research, development and monitoring program and
legislative and educational programs should be devised at the
earliest time feasible.
On the other hand, there is not enough
coordinated specific detailed information to produce an entire
program plan and, therefore, this information serves as a point
of departure rather than any sophisticated analysis.
The table
illustrates the following points:
(a)
Many of the projected events have several major impacts,.
some of which will occur simultaneously and others which
will occur in a time-phased sequence. In fact,. the list of
impact areas is not exhaustive and simply illustrates
a representative sample.
(b)
These impacts cut across, essentia lly, all major a.reas
including economic, social, quality-of-life,. goals and
values, institutional, political,and societal.
(c)
The user/application categories of education, medicine
law/administration of justice, decision making/
management, policy/systems analysis, are illustrat'ed:
as major re levant impact classes. In addition,. t'he:
average citizen class is included explicitly in a
number of the specific cases and implicitly in many
others. One or more of these classes are referenced
in most of the items.
84
(d)
Several of the items present evidence relevant to the
security/privacy issue.
(e)
The statements made under the column "Representative
List of Projected Impacts from the Literature," are
essentially the ideas or concepts contained in the
referenced material, although sometimes the exact
words may be modified or condensed for the sake of
brevity. The reader is invited to consult the
specific references for a more complete understanding
of the statements within their total context.
(f)
Some projections are made on the basis of fairly
substantial studies; others are probably top of the
head "guesstimates;" some are speculations. Two
modified DELPHI studies contribute a significant
share of the items.
(g)
Item 5 from the table indicates that the automatic
control of automobiles by computers will probably
not have widespread use until a time-frame beyond
that given major consideration for this study.
(h)
Items 9 and 11 from the table indicate that the
unemployment problem caused by computers and automation may become quite serious, but probably not
until late in the time-frame under consideration for
this pilot study.
(i)
Item 28 is possibly too optimistic, at least if this
is referring to widespread use around the world
rather than demonstration or prototype systems.
(j)
The format used in Exhibit 19 for these projected
impacts is: first, a statement of the projection
from the literature, second, identification of the
source, third, the time frame, and fourth, the type
of impact(s) or at least primary impact(s), i.e.,
economic, social, etc. Not all of the items have a
specific time frame explicitly stated but of those
that do, almost all are within the time-frame of the
present to 1985.
85
(k)
The following quotation illustrates an appropriate
perspective, not only for the projected impacts from
the quoted document, but also a relevant point of
departure for some of the discussions and analysis of
this document.
This paper reviews in a nontechnical fashion
the principal technological developments that
underlie the communication revolution, especially
the transistor and the computer. A number of
devices and communication subsystems that make
use of these developments are then described,
together with the new capabilities that they
permit.
The main body of the paper discusses some
possible social consequences of the communication revolution and indicates some of the
policy questions they raise. In some cases
changes are shown to be already underway.
Social effects are discussed in the fields of
education, 'po1itica1behavior, crime, economic
life, governmental regulatory action, and the
quality of life. It is shown that there is
reason for both optimism and pessimism about
these various effects, and that considerably
more analysis, research, and social experience will be required to foresee future
developments and enable steps to be taken
that will increase the chances of favorable
outcomes.
The concluding section provides some
guidelines for research on the social effects
of communication techno10gy.(43)
SPECIAL PROBLEM IMPACT -- SECURITY/PRIVACY
One of the major special problems which can have very serious
impacts on our society is the security/privacy problem.
The impact
of this problem is illustrated in items 13, 17, 19, 20, 37 and 38
of Exhibit 19, "Representative Table of Projected Impacts."
86
EXHIBIT 19
REPRESENTATIVE TABLE OF PROJECTED IMPACTS
REPRESENTATIVE LIST OF PROJECTED IMPACTS FROM THE
LITERATURE
(1) Computer Networks will be
used for debiting and crediting
accounts thereby producing an
instantaneous exchange of
Jloney
00
'-l
REFERENCE
TIME FRA"1E
The Year 2000: A
Framework for SEecu1ation on the Next
Thirtl-Three Years,
by Herman Kahn and
Anthony J. Wiener,
1967, p. 91
Last Third
of the
Twentieth
Century
( 2) Employers have terminals
to record income and automatically transfer payments to
tax authorities.
Forecast 1968-2000 of
ComEuter DeveloEments
and AEElications,
Parsons and Williams,
November 1968, p. 24.
Between
1982 and
1990
(3) Large urban traffic flow
computer controlled.
Ibid., p. 25.
(4) Policing of vehicles by
combined radar and computer
record of violation.
Ibid., p. 1.
Widespread use of
~utomobile auto pilots.
Ibid.
( 5)
( 6)
~ave
Majority of doctors will
terminals for consultation.
Ibid., p. 2.
Between 1973
and 1979
Between
1980 and
1986
late
1990's
Early
1980' s
PRIMARY IMPACT(S)
AREA(S)/CATEGORY(S)/
TYPES(S)
Economic
Economic
Social and
Environmenta 1
Social, Legal and
Institutional
Social and
Economic
Social. and Medical
----
--
\0
TIME FRAME
REFERENCE
PRIMARY UfPAcr(S)
AREA(S)/CATEGORY(S)/
TYPE(S)
(15)
(16)
(19)
I
J
no date
no date
no date
no date
- - -
no date
--
Economic, Legal,
and Institutional
1
I
Economic, Institutiona1/Governmental
!
!
I
Economic, Legal,
and Institutional
!
I
I
Economic, Governmental, Decision
Making, Policy
Analysis, Systems
Analysis.
I
Economic, Lega 1,
and Institutional
!
-
EXH I BIT 19 (Continued)
REPRESENTATIVE TABLE OF PROJECTED IMPACTS
REPRESENTATIVE LIST OF PROJECTEDIMPACTS FROM THE
LITERATURE
(20) Loss of personal
privacy.
\.0
o
REFERENCE -
TIME FRAME
PRIMARY IMPACTS(S)
AREA(S)/CATEGORY(S)/
TYPE(S)
The Real Comeuter: Its
Influence z Uses and
Effects, Frederic
Withington, 1969, p.257.
no date
( 21) Traditional organizational
structures will break down.
Ibid. , p. 268 •.
no da te
Management, Decision.
making, Economic"
i
and Social
J
(22) Further extension o£
computer-assisted decision
making to more organizations and
wider use in present computer
using organizations.
Ibid. , p. 299.
no da te
Management, Decision
Making, Economic,
and Social
-,
(23) Scierice of psychology
will change; current work on
information systems has brought
us to threshold of breakthrough
in learning theory.,
Man and the Comeuter:,
Technolog~ as an Agent
of-Social Change, John
Diebold, 1969, p. 135.
( 24) New international trade
patterns will evolve (emergence
of multinational corporations.
Ibid.,·p. 136.
no date
Economic, International Politics,
and Institutional
( 25) Role of middle management
will change.
-Ibid ~, p. 138.
ho da te
Management, Decision
Making, Economic, and
Governmental
>
no date
Quality of Life,
Legal, and
Institutional
I
I
Social and
Educational System
-,
'
,
--~
EXHIBIT 19 (Continued)
REPRESENTATIVE TABLE OF PROJECTED IMPACTS
REPRESENTATIVE LIST OF PROJECTED IMPACTS FROM THE
LITERATURE
\.0
f-1
REFERENCE
TIME FRAME
PRIMARY IMPACTS(S)
AREA(S)/CATEGORY(S)/
TYPE(S)
(26) Computerized storage
and retrieval of data bank
information for legislative,
and criminal justice agencies.
Forecast 1968-2000 of
ComEuter DeveloEments
and AEElications,
Parsons and Williams,
November 1968, p. 21
1970
Decade
Lega 1, Social,
Economic, and
Institutional
(27) The use of electronic
monitors and computers integratec
into day-to-day hospital operations.
Ibid, p. 29.
1974 to
1980
Medical, Social,
Economic, and
Quality of Life
(28) Completely computer
controlled commercial airplanes
including take-offs and landings.
.!!?l:!!,
1975 to
1985
Economic, Quality
of Life, Safety,
Legal, and.
Institutional
(29) Computer industry will
need close to 1.5 million
workers.
Business Automation,
"EDP Slated as World's
Largest Industry," by
Leonard Famiglietti,
November 15, 1970, p.23.
1975
Economic and Social
p. 32.
I
(30) There will be well over a
million jobs for "information
middle-me~' -- the interpreters
of information demand.
Advanced Management
Journal, "The Computer:
Engine of the Eighties,"
by James H. Binger,
January 1967, p. 25.
1975
Economic and Social
:
EXHIBIT 19 (Continued)
REPRESENTATIVE TABLE OF PROJECTED IMPACTS
REPRESENTATIVE LIST OF PROJECTED IMPACTS FROM THE
LITERATURE
\.0
N
REFERENCE
TIME FRAME
PRIMARY IMPACT(S)
AREA(S)/CATEGORY(S)
TYPE(S)
(31) Simulation and games
some of which are computer-based
to help adolescents choose a
career, train for management
positions and perform other
adult roles.
e Social Effects of
Late 1970's
ommunication Technolo ,
and
Rand Report, by Herbert
1980' s
oldhamer, R-486-RSF, May
1970, p. 11.
Educational, Societal,
and Economic
(32) New communications
technology enables political
leaders and administrators to
react faster to a crisis.
Groups can confer more quickly
if they need only to get to a
special "secured" telephone
than if they have to go to
Washington.
~bid., p. 15.
No date given
but probably
late 1970's
and 1980's
Decision making,
Management,
Economic, Political,
Legal, and
Institutional
(33) The growth of computer
networks "time-sharing for the
masses" will make it possible to
organize political districts on
other than geographical lines -perhaps more pluralistic society
with individuals participating in
many roles and associations.
~bid., p. 13.
No date given
but probably
late 1970's
and 1980's
Political, Quality
of Life, Social,
and Institutional
(34) Modern and advanced
information and communicatipns
technology make it feasible to
contemplate the success of political systems involving a large
amount of decentralized free choice
F bid.,
No date given
but probably
late 1970's
and 1980's
Political, Quality
of Life, Social,
Values, and Institututional
p. 13.
EXHIBIT 19 (Continued)
REPRESENTATIVE TABLE OF PROJECTED IMPACTS
~
1..0
W
EPRESENTATIVE
LIST OF PROECTED IMPACTS FROM THE
IT ERAT URE
REFERENCE
TIME FRAME
PRIMARY IMPACT(S)
AREA(S)/CATEGORY(S)/
TYPE(S)
(35) Possibility of manipulating computerized systems
for counting votes.
The Social Effects of
Communications Technology, A RAND Report,
by Herbert Go1dhamer,
R-486-RSF, May 1970,
p. 13.
No date given IPo1itica1, Social,
but essentially Legal, and Institufrom the
tiona1.
present on
(36) Although computer
companies and service centers
sound confident about their
ability to maintain confidentiality it is by no means clear
that current schemes provide
adequate protection.
IIbid., p. 16.
On-going
Legal, Economic,
Political, Social,
Qua lity of Life,
and Institutional
(37) Criminal elements operating
on Wall Street recruiting better
educated people who know "how
to steal with an IBM machine."
,Ibid., p. 15 and 16.
On-going
Legal, Economic,
Political, and
Institutional
(38) National identification
IIbid., p. 16.
system coupled with computerized
data bank facilitates surveillance
of criminals -- or anyone else.
1970's and
1980's
Legal, Political,
Qua li ty of Life,
Social, Values and
Goals, Governmental,
and Institutional
(39) Management likely to develop
corporate policy more self-consciously because businessmen will
want to derive maximum advantages
of the data storage and processing
capabilities of the computers
communication system.
1970's and
1980' s
Economic, Decision
Making, and
Management
Ibid., p. 18.
EXHIBIT 19 (Continued)
REPRESENTATIVE TABLE OF PROJECTED IMPACTS
REPRESENTATIVE LIST OF PROJECTED IMPACTS FROM THE
LITERATURE
(40) Extension of computer
control of manufacturing processes
to permit on-line changes in
product specifications to make
customized products cheaper, for
some products customization may
become the rule rather than the
exception.
'i.
REFERENCE
The Social Effects of
Communication Technology, A RAND Report,
by Herbert Go1dhamer,
R-486-RSF, May 1970,
pp. 19-20.
TIME FRAME
PRIMARY IMPACT(S)
AREA(S)/CATEGORY(S)/
TYPE(S)
no date
Economic, Societal,
and Quality of Life
(41) Economy of travel and
IIIbid., p. 24.
professional time will increasing1~
dictate the use of computers and
communication devices in place of
direct contact between the professional man and his client.
Late 1970's
and 1980's
Qua li ty of Life,
Economic, and
Social
(42) Large dependence of some
IIIbid., p. 25.
social systems on computertechnology communication technology could lead to major difficulties in event of electronic
error or because human servants
of the machines are not up to
their jobs.
No date given
but probably
late 1970's
and 1980's
Socia 1, Qua li ty
of Life, Legal, and
Ins ti tutiona 1
(43) As a change agent,computers
will enable the individual to seek
maximum responsibility and selfactualization in a "society of
organizations."
1980 to
1985
Social and
Quality of Life
ana ement Literature,
"The Interface of Computer-Based Information
Network Technology with
Top Management Decision
Making and Organization
Change:1980-85," by
Harold J. Podell, Dec.
16, 1970, p. 66.
EXHIBIT 19 (Continued)
REPRESENTATIVE TABLE OF PROJECTED IMPACTS
REPRESENTATIVE LIST OF PROJECTED IMPACTS FROM THE
LITERATURE
\.0
Ln
REFERENCE
TIME FRAME
PRIMARY IMPACT(S)
AREA(S)/CATEGORY(S)/
TYPE(S)
(44) The impact of the computer
Doctoral Seminar in
will be to provide the necessary
Management Literature,
economies of scale for information "The Interface of Comprocesses to support political
puter-Based Information
organizational change.
,Network Technology with
Top Management Decision
Making and Organizational Change: 1980-85,"
by Harold J. Podell,
December 16, 1970,
p. 68.
1980 to
1985
Political, Decision
Making, Administrative, Legal, and
Institutional
(45) More individual and
capital productivity.
Ibid., p. 69.
1980 to
1985
Economic
(46) Shorter work week and
more income per capita (direct
and indirect income, e.g.,
salary and social benefits.
Ibid., p. 69.
1980 to
1985
Economic, Social,
Educational, and
Leisure-recreation
(47) Development of II nonroutine"
industries that further reinforce
the social and political impacts
toward democracy in a large comp1e
II society of organiza tion."
IIbid.
1980 to
1985
Economic, Social,
Political, and
Institutional
(48) The demand for complex
decisions will require top
management to be aware of and to
appreciate the value and dangers
of the computers as a tool for
decision making.
Ibid., p. 70.
1980 to
1985
Decision making,
Administrative,
Institutional, and
Economic
EXHIBIT 19 (Continued)
REPRESENTATIVE TABLE OF PROJECTED IMPACTS
RBPRESENTATIVE LIST OF PROJECTED
IMPACTS FROM THE LITERATURE
REFERENCE
TIME FRAME
PRIMARY IMPACT(S)
AREA(S)/CATEOGRY(S)/
TYPE(S)
(49) Low cost stored program
processors will link the local
retail outlet to powerful central
processors for inventory control
and accounting.
Fifteen-Year Forecast
of Informa tionProcess ins Techno10s:x:,
by Geotge B. Bernstein,
Naval Supply Systems
Command, 20 January
1960, p. 95.
1970 to
1976
Economic, Lega 1,
and In~titutiona1
(50) Remote inquiry stations
combining with television will
provide over 50% of college
education for engineering
students.
.ill2.,
1974 to
1983
Quality
of Life, and
Economic
Pattern reader used
in medicq1 field
analysis (hospitals).
~.,
p. 52.
1971 to
1975
Medi<;a1/Hea1th
Service
(52) Low~cost computer hardware
will justify ineffecient (by
todays standards) but vast number~
of computation and handling
processes.
~.,
p. 55.
1972 to
1979
Social, Economic,
and the Average
Citizen
(53) Dependence on human
observation and judgment in
testing (computer) modules at
the point of manufacture will
be eliminated.
~.,
p. 57.
1970 to
1980
Economic, both
Higher Ef~iciency
and the Unemp10yment Problem
I
\.0
0\
(51)
co~ercia11Y
Education~
I
I
-
-
--
-
-
--
-
- -
I
I
EXHIBIT 19 (Continued)
REPRESENTATIVE TABLE OF PROJECTED IMPACTS
K,I!;l'K,I!;~,I!;NTATIVE LIST OF PROJECTED IMPACTS FROM THE
LITERATURE
\0
'-l
REFERENCE
TIME FRAME
-P}{IMARY IMPACT(S)
AREA(S)/CATEGORY(S)/
TYPE(S)
(54) Cost/operation will drop
by a factor of 200 from current
levels (report published in
early 1969) and will be available
in 5th-generation computers.
Fifteen-Year Forecast
of Informa tion ..
Processing Techno1o~, by George B.
Bernstein, Naval Supply
Systems Command,
Washington, 20 January
1969, p. 58.
1974 to
'985
Economi~ Management
Decision Making,
Policy Analysis,
Medical, Legal,
Educational, and
The Average Citizen
(55) Standard television sets
Will come into substantial use
as I/O terminals.
Ibid., p. 63.
1970 to
1975
Average Citizen,
Institutional, and
Educational
(56) Development of low cost
remote graphic terminals.
Ibid., p. 65.
1971 to
1976
Management,
Decision Making,
Systems Analysis,
Medica 1, and
Educa tiona 1
(57) There will be a radical
change in the policy and methods
of publication. Copyright laws
are a chief obstacle to wider
publication in microforms, and
publishing houses are struggling
with the prop1em, but with an
eye very solidly on the
possibility of microform publications.
Ibid., p. 81.
1972 to
1977
Institutional,
Legal, Economic,
Political, Decision.
Making, Medical and
Average Citizen
EXHIBIT 19 (Continued)
REPRESENTATIVE TABLE OF PROJECTED IMPACTS
REPRESENTATIVE LIST OF PROJECTED
IMPACTS FROM THE LITERATURE
(58) There will be a sequence
of small languages relating small
groups of people to machines,and
groups of machines. This comment
is based on the premise that, for
example, there is no need to force
physicists to talk the same language as biologists.
\.0
00
REFERENCE
Fifteen-Year Forecast
of InformationProcessing Technology,
by George B. Bernstein,
~ava1 Supply Systems
Command, Washington,
20 January 1969,
p. 86.
TIME FRAME
PRIMARY IMPACT(S)
AREA(S)/CATEGORY(S)/
TYPE(S)
1969 to
1980
Decision Making,
Analysis, Legal, .
Medical, and
Economic
(59) Widespread use of graphics IIIbid., p. 94.
systems for management planning.
Display consoles available to
managers and their staff providing
access to the accumulated information resources of the country.
1971 to
1980
Management, Decision
Making, Policy
Analysis, Politica 1,
Institutional, and
Economic
(60) On-line color TV will permitillbid., p. 94.
computer user to "tune-i~' and
follow the course of his problem
in real-time.
1975 to
1985
Management, Decision
Making, Administration,
Systems Analysis,
Policy Analysis,
Medical, and Educational
(61) Systems providing access
IIIbid., p. 94.
to the "library" type data with
hard copy output via simple electronic I/O device (direct
transmission) will be operational
on a local city basis.
1973 to
1981
Educational, Analysis.
EXHIBIT 19 (Continued)
REPRESENTATIVE TABLE OF PROJECTED IMPACTS
REPRESENTATIVE LIST OF PROJECTED
IMPACTS FROM THE LITERATURE
REFERENCE
TIME FRAME
1973 to
1980
Decision Making,
Administration,
Management, Policy
and Systems Analysis,
Medical, Political,
Educational, Institutional, and
Economic
(63) Instead of buying books
IIIbid., p. 96.
and going to libraries for information, a student will be issued
a reader and complete sets of
microfilm with his entire course
of study and all of the associated
reading materials. The cost
would be sufficiently low that
the convenience to him would be
worth the cost. The ability of
microfilm to be distributed
quickly and easily and updated
would make it possible for
additional materials to be handed
out easily and quickly to be
added to the collection in case
the art is advanCing or additional
materials become available.
1972 to
1980
Educational,
Institutional,
Medical and Legal
(64) Use of microforms in the
IIIbid., p. 96.
home will be accelerated by
merchandising in color microfiche
catalogues read on home TV viewers
1972 to
1978
Economic, Institutional, and the
Average Citizen
(62) Computers with many
(thousands) remote terminals
netted together across nation
and world-wide doing cooperative
problem solving.
Fifteen-Year Forecast
of InformationProcessing Technology,
by George B. Bernstein,
Naval Supply Systems
Command, Washington,
20 January 1969,
p. 95.
\0
\0
PRIMARY-WACT (Sj
AREA(S)/CATEOGRY(S)/
TYPE(S)
EXHIBIT 19 (Continued)
REPRESENTATIVE TABLE OF PROJECTED IMPACTS
REPRESENTATIVE LIST OF PROJECTED
IMPACTS FROM THE LITERATURE
~
o
o
REFERENCE
TIME FRAME
PRIMARY IMPACT(S)
AREA(S)/CATEGORY(S)/
TYPE(S)
(65) Man-machine capabilities
to allow a user to examine in
greater detail, at various levels
the output results of management
information reports. With this
would also come the opportunity
to experiment more with overall
results by causing changes in
variables used in projecting
from the bases established by
using this stored information.
The result would be a greater
understanding by the user of the
methods used to derive the
information and what variables
cause changes in what areas.
Fifteen-Year Forecast
of InformationProcessing Technology,
by George B. Bernstein,
Naval Supply Systems
Command, Washington,
20 January 1969,
p. 97.
1970 to
1977
Management, Decision
Making, and Analysis
(66) Management not making use
of management information and
control systems which are realtime current awareness call up
systems will not be able to
perform competitively.
Ibid., p. 97.
1970 to
1975
Management Decision
Making, and Policy
Analysis
(67) 80% of work running on
computers will be of a
synergistic/symbiotic type.
Ibid., p. 98.
1974 to
1985
Decision· Making,
Analysis, Medical,
Economic, Legal,
And Educational
EXHIBIT 19 (Concluded)
REPRESENTATIVE TABLE OF PROJECTED IMPACTS
REPRESENTATIVE LIST OF PROJECTED
IMPACTS FROM THE LITERATURE
PRIMARY IMPACT(S)
AREA(S)/CATEGORY(S)/
TYPE(S)
REFERENCE
I TIME FRAME
questionsystems will be
~eveloped which can assimilate
thousands of facts and algorithms
~nd efficiently develop long
deductive chains of these to
prove a result.
Fifteen~Year
Forecast
of InformationProcessing Technology,
by George B. Bernste-in~
Naval Supply Systems
Command, Washington,
20 January 1969,
p. 98.
1970 to
1976
Analysis, Decision
Making, Medical,
Legal, Institutional,
and Poli tica 1
(69) Marriage of computeraided instruction techniques
~ith standard information
processing technology to effect
error handling and reference
manuals through user training.
Ibid., p. 100.
1972 to
1980
Educational, Legal,
Medical, Management,
and the Average
Citizen
(70) Development of more
powerful capabilities in manmachine areas which lead,
instruct and assist the user
in obtaining desired results
primarily via the use of CRT
consoles in on-line, realtime situations.
Ibid.~
1970 to
1977
Decision Making,
Analysis, Educational,
Institutional, Medical,
Legal, and the Average
Citizen
(68)
Powe~ful
~nswering
t-'
o
t-'
p. 101.
LISTING OF THE REFERENCED WORKS FOR EXHIBIT 19
A REPRESENTATIVE TABLE OF
PROJECTED IMPACTS
~
o
1.
George B. Bernstein, A Fifteen-Year Forecast of Information-Processing Technology, AD681-752,
Naval Supply Systems Command, Washington, D. C., 20 January 1969.
2.
James H. Binger, "The Computer:
January 1967.
3.
John Diebold, Man and the Computer: Technology as an Agent of Social Change, New York,
Frederick A. Praeger, Publishers, 1969.
4.
Martin L. Ernst, "What Else Will Computers Do to Us?," Wall Street Journal, 21 October 1970.
5.
Leonard Famiglietti, "EDP Slated as World's Largest Industry," Business Automation,
15 November 19700
6.
Herbert Goldhamer, Editor, The Social Effects of Communication Technology, A report prepared
for The Russel Sage Foundation, The RAND Corporation, R-486-RSF, May 1970.
7.
Herman Kahn and Anthony Jo Wiener, The Year 2000: A Framework for Speculation on the Next
Thirty-Three Years, New York, The MacMillan Company, 1967.
8.
Parsons and Williams, Forecast 1968-2000 of Computer Developments and Applications,
Copenhagen, Denmark, November 1968.
9.
Harold J. Podell, Doctornl Seminar in Management Literature, Decision Making, "The Interface of
Computer-Based Information Network Technology Hith Top Management Decision Making and
Organizational Change: 1980-1985," 16 December 1970.
N
Engine of the Eighties," Advanced Management Journal,
10.
Dr. Arthur Samuel, "Banishment of Paper-work," edited by Nigel Calder, The World in 1984,
Volume I, Baltimore, Penguin Books, 1964.
11.
Dr. N. V. Wilkes, "A World Dominated by Computer?," edited by Nigel Calder, The World in 1984
Volume I, Baltimore, Penguin Books, 19640
12.
Frederick G. Withington, The Real Computer:
Publishing Company, Reading, Mass., 1969.
Its Influence. Uses and Effects, Addison-Wesley
Security/Privacy
~roblem
and Its Potential Impact
The following quotations indicate the seriousness of this problem and the potential harmful impact.
The following quote from
Westin presents the 1966-67 situation.*
In July of 1966 the Gallagher Committee held its own hearings on "The Computer and Privacy," with the federal datacenter proposal as its main topic. The committee was hostile
to Dunn and Bowman, the Chairman calling the proposed data
center a "monster," and "octopus," and a "great, expensive,
electronic garbage pail." Mr. Eckler told the committee that
the Census hoped to ask in 1970 for Social Security numbers so
that in the future more data on income, family size, and residence could be compared. He indicated, however, that public
pressure had probably precluded any question on religion.
As the Gallagher hearings progressed, several points became clear about the proposed federal data-bank. Administration witnesses and computer experts indicated that the identity
of the individuals and businesses reporting the data would have
to be kept in the system so that the validity of the data could
be assessed, shifts in population could be checked for demographic studies, and further questions could be asked of samples at a later time in order to clarify trends on a longitudinal basis. This eliminated the possibility that privacy could
be assured rather simply by breaking all links between identity
and data.
It also became clear in the hearings that there was a difference of opinion among the experts on whether a data-bank for
statistical purposes, with identities preserved, should be considered in any way comparable to an intelligence or dossier
system, or whether data-banks were always potential intelligence systems capable of being used for that purpose by those
having access to them.
The immediate problem of the federal data-center was more
or less settled when Administration spokesmen assured Representative Gallagher that no action would be taken to initiate
such a center without presenting a full-scale proposal to Congress for approval in terms of both authorization and appropriations. Both the Congressmen and Administration witnesses
agreed that safeguards of confidentiality and privacy ought to
be designed into the system as well as written into law before
any such center was initiated.
*From
Privacy and Freedom by Alan F. Westin. Copyright 1967 by the
Association of the Bar of the City of New York. Reprinted by permission of Atheneum Publishers.
103
In the larger context, several witnesses stressed
that the computer community had been unconcerned for
far too long with the basic issues of privacy,
Congressmen Gallagher stressed that there seemed to
be no dialogue among computer people, behaviorial
scientists, and constitutional experts, and the
Committee members voiced the hope that the hearings
would prompt such meetings in the future. One result
of this suggestion was the creation of a committee
on problems of privacy and the computer within the
American Federation of Information Processing Societies
(AFIPS), and the holding of a symposium on the subject
at the national AFIPS convention during April, 1967.
This was preceded in March by a three-day seminar
meeting of leading computer experts, social scientists,
law-enforcement officials, constitutional lawyers, and
specialists on privacy.
In October 1966, the report of the President's
Task Force on the Storage of and Access to Government
Statistics (the Kaysen Committee) was made public.
Unlike the Dunn report, this discussion emphasized
the issue of privacy heavily, called for legislation
to forbid all regulatory or law-enforcement use of
data collected for statistical purposes, and recommended advance studies of ways to ensure confidentiality of personal data by technological and administrative means. The report concluded that, with
such safeguards, a national data center was a highly
desirable project and recommended that the Administration
move ahead with it.
A third Congressional development in this period
came from the Senate Constitutional Rights Subcommittee,
which directed its attention to the collection of personal
information by the federal government through the forms
and questionnaires it required of federal employees and
job applicants. The inquiry dealt briefly with personality tests, in a kind of "mop-up operation" from the
1965 hearings, then went on to medical forms, personnel
history forms, special surveys of race and religion for
equality compliance purposes, and questions about financial holdings for conflict-of-interest purposes. Senator
Ervin said that his committee had never before received
such a flood of complaints and protests from citizens
on any issue as it had on the requirements that federal
employees supply racial and religious designations.
During 1966 and early 1967, Ervin announced various
eliminations of personal inquiries by federal agencies
104
under pressure from his committee, such as the dropping
by the Civil Service Commission of its Medical History
Form 89. This had asked federal employees questions
about bed-wetting, pregnancies; homosexuality, and
whether blood relatives had committed suicide, had been
insane, or had suffered from hives. The Commission had
been unable to defend the necessity of the form on medical
grounds, and examples were documented of use of the form
to discipline or discharge employees when the real reasons
for such action had been non-medical. With thirty-five
other Senators as co-sponsors, Senator Ervin introduced
a general bill to protect the privacy of federal employees from unreasonable invasions by government officials.
This bill covered personality testing, polygraphing,
race-religion-and-national-origin questionnaires, and
various other self-reporting inquiries as to income
and political activity. Hearings on this bill were
held in late 1966, but the real test of the measure
was expected to come at the 1967-68 sessions of
Congress.
THE COMPlITER AND PRIVACY
By the late 1960's large-scale data collection and
processing of information about individuals and groups
had been added to the American public's list of serious
problems involving technology and privacy. For some,
like the conservative editors of U.S. News and World
Report, the computer promised to advance such unhappy
developments as economic regulation, welfare activity,
and government civil-rights enforcement by making them
more efficient and thus even more distasteful. For
others, such as liberals who do not ordinarily shudder
at large-scale government activity in these areas, fears
were raised by the prospects of government loyaltysecurity and law-enforcement activity. Reaching to
each other from opposite ends of the American political
spectrum, conservatives and liberals united in alarmed
reaction at "computerized Big Brother."
Yet the fundamental thinking necessary to come to
grips with the problems of the computer and privacy had
not yet reached the public arenas as of 1967. (44)
105
The following quotation by Arthur R. Miller illustrates the
problem of best data sources and original information data sources the interaction of this problem with policy-making:
The convenience of referring to computer-stored evaluations and increased time pressures may lead decision-makers
to abdicate their responsibility for making important judgments in a rational, thoughtful manner or to return to
original sources to verify, update, and seek out more or
better data. True, most information users insist that
they understand that the computer's utility and a data
base's reliability necessarily are limited by the quality
of the input, typically emphasizing their alleged awareness
by reciting the maxim "garbage in, garbage out" (GIGO).
Nonetheless, the hypnotic effect of being able to manipulate enormous data bases is likely to encourage people to
use the computer as an electronic security blanket and to
view it as a device for quantifying the unquantifiable.
Some notion of the implications of using computerized
personal data as an assist in policy-making can be divined
from the following:
'[In New York a] ... computer, that had been
fed accumulated information from bettors, police and
other sources spewed out the names of eighty-six
alleged bookmakers. Indictments followed. The
machine had not only stored the information but had
evaluated it. The government claimed that the
three-year statute of limitations on the charges
might have expired before human investigators could
have evaluated the data.'
A number of disturbing questions are raised by this application of cybernetics. If programming a computer to select
names of people for criminal prosecution falls within the
district attorney's well recognized (and virtually
unfettered) discretion, is it time to impose some constraints on how that discretion is employed? In order to
prevent the administration of justice from depending on
the spin of a computerized roulette wheel, shouldn't we
ensure that the use of the technology satisfies some
minimal standard of computer science? By what process
does the system manager determine that particular data
have sufficient probative value to warrant being fed into
106
the computer and what weight should be assigned to individual items of information? How can we be certain that the
official who has the authority to decide whether an indictment should be sought has enough understanding of the
computer system to make a rational assessment of its output?
Nor should we ignore the real possibility that prejudice
to the individual will not end with the decision to seek an
indictment. Commenting on this particular computer application, a lawyer observed: '[TJ he •.• computer can tell you
where the stars are going to be a million years from now.
Do you think a jury is not going to believe that it can tell
you where a bookie is in the Bronx?'(45)
The above quotation illustrates the problem of the certification
of data both with respect to reliability of the original source and
the possibility of errors when the data is transferred from one system and/or medium to another.
Although this particular computer
illustration may have been quite beneficial, nonetheless, the problem created by the aura of the "infallible computer" with respect
to information about the citizen when used in a legal proceeding
may cause a serious harmful impact.
The following quotation illustrates a brief comparison of the
problem of computerized information versus the noncomputerized data:
Storage of information in computerized form allows
rapid retrieval and updating of files and drastically
reduces the required storage space. However, information
previously in the form of printed documents in locked file
cabinets is now replaced by magnetization patterns on tapes
and disks--they can be anonymously read, altered or erased
without a trace of evidence that this has occurred. Hence,
anyone that has gained access to the information system
could, in principle, manipulate any information in the files-perhaps plant damaging information on a competitor, change
bank accounts or copy trade secrets.
The increasingly large number of on-line information
systems and associated terminals provides increased access
opportunities and may make penetration of these systems
107
appear profitable to a wider class of technically sophisticated but larcenously inclined individuals. Indeed,
the "electronically perpetrated crime" appears to be
characterized by a low physical risk, small probability
of detection, anonymity, lack of evidence and a lack of
applicable laws. Further, the level of expertise previously required for successful embezzlement has been
reduced by simplification of business procedures for
computerized operation. On the other side of the ledger
we find, however, that the resources, both in equipment
and know-how, required for successful penetration are
considerably higher than those necessary for conventional
burglaries or holdups. (46)
The following quotation illustrates a comparison of the computer
data bank problem with some analogies to other innovated technology
and their human problems:
The main immediate danger is that we will continue
to ignore this issue altogether because of technical
infatuation with computers. There are, unfortunately,
many precedents for this sort of thing. When the
factories of the first Industrial Revolution were built,
the machinery went through many technical improvements
before much thought was given to the health or safety
of its operators. Even now, we seem to be more preoccupied with the flying characteristics of SST's than
with their effects on the quality of human life. With
data banks there is the somewhat sinister additional
danger that, unless the debate gets going in time, we
shall hear no more--because it has been deemed too
upsetting by a real-life Big Brother. (47)
Scenarios Which Illustrate Potential Harmful Impacts of Resource
Sharing Computer-Based InformatibnSystems
The following quoted scenarios illustrate how some of the
negative impacts could occur:
Scenarios for Theft and Embezzlement
The following scenarios illustrate several techniques
which may be utilized to penetrate [sic, perhaps should
be perpetrate] fraud or embezzle funds in a resourceshared computer system.
108
Theft Using a Between-The-Lines Entry
Background
The XYZ Investment Company, a well established
brokerage firm with international offices and operations,
utilizes a real-time computer link to a bank for all
transactions involving receipt or expenditure of funds.
This includes payment to clients for securities sold
for the client by the firm. The method of calling for
disbursement involves:
1. Computer-to-computer authentication using the
firm and customer account numbers
2. In-the-clear transmission of customer name,
address and the amount to be disbursed
3. Date disbursement is to take place.
The above information was obtained by a college
senior through conversations with the XYZ Investment
Company's systems prograrrnner during a "job interview. 1I
Approach
The student takes the following actions:
1. Leases a very small computer and data phone
2. Connects the data phone in parallel with the
leased data line between the ba.nk and the
broker
3. Writes a short utility program to provide
between-the-lines entry into the bank-broker
link
4. Establishes an account at the Paris branch of
the bank.
Operation
Following a few days of monitoring the links, a
between-the-lines disbursement order is sent to the
bank following the normal disbursement order tape. To
ensure that all normal error checking schemes will be
thwarted, the student's program:
1. Adds to the normal order sent to the bank an
order to disburse $2,500,000 to the account
in France
2. Computes a new checksum for the modified
message and transmits it
3. Deletes the false order from the retransmission
of the data sent back to the broker so that
neither party is aware that a between-the-lines
entry has been made.
109
The student flies to Paris, withdraws the money,
flies to Switzerland, deposits the money in a numbered
account and, following his return to the U. S., arranges
for pickup and return of the leased computer and data
set.
Embezzlement
Background
A computer operator in an investment firm decides
to cash in on his position. The firm does not employ
machineroom monitors.
Approach and Operation
1. The operator opens an account with the firm
under an assumed name
2. During execution of the "customer account
update" program, the operator stops the
computer, decrements each of several large,
inactive accounts held in street name by
several hundred shares each and adds those
shares to his account
3. The following day, he sells the securities
and, on receiving the check for the proceeds,
invests the amount with another brokerage
firm or mutual fund
4. He closes the account used as a dummy fpr the
transaction.
Revelation of Private Information
The following scenarios illustrate methods for
obtaining private information, both actively and passively.
Wiretapping to Obtain Financial Data on a Firm as an Aid
to Merger Negotiations (Mr. Boris Hagelin of Crypto A.G.
made suggestions on which this scenario is based.)
Backgrrund
Firm A is a merger-minded conglomerate with some
considerable experience in the merger field. It desires
to acquire a smaller, privately held company - Firm B.
Firm B's owners know that they cannot prevent the merger,
but wish to consummate it on the most favorable terms
possible.
110
Approach
Firm B finds out that Firm A uses a suitcase-sized
data link device to its bank and to an investment banker
in order to make use of computer programs that provide a
matrix for negotiations showing a range of merger proposals and their effective cost. Firm B buys a similar
suitcase sized data terminal and covertly attaches it,
in parallel with that used by Firm A.
Operatio~
Firm B now receives all merger data that is sent to
or received from Firm A. Upper and lower bounds for the
transaction are- revealed as well as insight into Ats
strategy. With this a-priori knowledge, Firm B negotiates the best possible merger agreement. (48)
The several quotations above reveal the widespread concern among
knowledgeable people about protecting the security and privacy of
information in data banks.
It seems clear that
on~
should expect
an intolerable number of abuses of human rights unless adequate safeguards are developed to provide the requisite security and privacy.
111
CHAPTER VI
ACTION OPTIONS AND RECOMMENDATION FOR FUTURE
RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM
ESTABLISHING A CONTEXT FOR ACTION OPTIONS
In order to establish a framework for proposing and discussing
action options it is necessary to postulate the state of affairs in
the nation.
Whenever one writes favorable scenarios or postulates
future impacts for the computer-based information processing network
system,there is, whether explicitly or implicitly, a transition
scenario.
A transition scenario for the purpose of our discussion
would be as follows:
(a)
A
favorable governmental policy exists for both
computer and communications industries.
(b)
The economic conditions of the next decade include
an expanding economy with no major depressions and,
at most, a few relatively minor recessions.
(c)
There is no catastrophic nuclear war.
(d)
The general society learns to accept computer systems
and the advanced applications as a benefit rather than
dreading the computer as a technological evil. The
various computer hardware and software vendors continue
to expand in the direction of joint computer communication systems.
In addition, during the transition time frame, primarily the 1970's,
computer system achievements such as those described in the following
quotation by Paul Armer are accomplished:
112
Various projections have been made of computer achievements in
the 1970's. Let us note one such set of expectations.
•
•
•
•
•
•
Computers will be readily available as a publicdomain service (but not necessarily as a regulated
monopoly).
Information ~ ~ will be inexpensive and readily
available.
Large and varied data banks will exist and be
accessible to the public.
Computers will be used extensively in management
science and decision making.
Computers will be economically feasible for firms
and activities of all sizes.
Computers will process language and recognize
voices.
Computers will be used extensively at all levels
of government.
Computers will increase the pace of technological
development. (49)
After this transition or sequence of events a continuation
scenario, which might be an application or impact scenario, would
contain a credible set of events for the 1980 to 1985 time frame.
This would include the following types of systems:
(a)
medical information and diagnostic networks
(b)
legal information networks
(c)
educational information and research networks
(d)
social welfare including employment placement networks
(e)
investment and securities trading networks
However, for all these events to occur in a reasonably rational
manner with progress being made in the acceptance of computer applications without major catastrophes to our human value systems (security/
privacy, rate of unemployment), and without severe bitterness and dislocations caused by major system failures both in operation and implementation, there must be a coherent set of action options and a plan
for a continued inquiry as to the related course of events, and, as
indicated, a research and development program.
113
Action options ·are methods for implementing societal desires
relative to technology applications.
They include:
(a)
control options which accelerate or dampen an
anticipated technology application
(b)
monitoring or warning systems which track or
measure an anticipated technology application
(c)
obviating devices which counteract the undesirable
impacts of an anticipated technology application
GUIDING DEVELOPMENT OF COMPUTER TECHNOLOGY
Control Options
One of the most serious and complex problems is the security/
privacy issue with respect to computer-based information networks.
On the one hand, many of the institutional forces that wish to oppose
modern innovative analysis and techniques including data bank utilization and multiple access systems can use the issue of security/
privacy to block the development of proposed systems.
But on the
other hand, it is a very real problem, and the reader is referred
to Westin's Privacy and Freedom(50) and also Annette Harrison's
two-volume study The Problem of Privacy in the Computer Age:
Annotated Bibliography. (51)
An
Harrison's second volume alone annotates
more than three hundred publications pertaining to all aspects of
the problem of privacy in the computer age.
Most of these entries
cover the timespan 1967 to 1969.
Exhibit 20 illustrates in graphic form some of the many security threats which confront a computer-based information network..
A
summary illustration of many of the threats and countermeasures to
information privacy/security is presented in exhibit 21. (52)
It has
been stated in the technology assessment literature that when analysts from the so-called "hard sciences" address a problem, they
114
TAPS RADl ATlON
RADIATION
RADIATION
TAPS
RADIATION
RADIATION
CROSSTALK!
CROSSTAlK
I
COMMUNICATION LINES
'\L,
PROCESSOR
Theft
Copying
Unluthorized iCcess
V1
RepliCe a protecting monitor with
a non-protective one, or with
one having "ins"
Reveal protective measures
HARDWARE
Failure of protection circuits
Bounds registers
Memory rudlwrite protects
Priveleqed mode
Etc.
Contribute to software failures
Disable software protective features
Provide private "ins" to system
Reveal protective measures
\
MAl NTENANCE MAN
SOFTWARE
Failure of protection features
Access (ontrol
User iaentilication
Bounds (ontrol
Disable hardware protective
devices
Use stand-alone utility
pr~rams to access liles
or to explore the system
1
~
Y lL
SWITCHING
CENTER
Failure to connect to
U U
proper line
'Cron coupling betwel
~
lines
SYSTEMS PROGRAMMER
f-I
f-I
I
Q
~Q
~REMOTE/
ACCESS
Attac~ recorders
(platen impressions, ink
ribbon, etc.1
BU<] planted by individual of
low authorization level
Etc.
Source: Willis H. Ware, "Security and Privacy in
Computer Systems," AFIPS Conference Proceedings,
Vol. 30, 1967 Spring Joint Computer Conference, p. 280.
EXHIBIT 20
TYPICAL CONFIGURATION OF RESOURCE-SHARING COMPUTER SYSTEM
CONSOLES
USE R
-Identification
Authentication
Subtle modifications
to software syst,
EXHIBIT 21
SUMMARY OF COUNTERMEASURES TO THREAT TO INFORMATION PRIVACY
~ERMEASURE
_THR~T ~
Accidental:
User error
Sys tem error
Delibera te, passive:
Electromagnetic
pick-up
ACCESS CONTROL
(passwords,
authentication,
authorization)
PROCESSING RESTRICTIONS
(storage, protect,
privileged
operations)
PRIVACY TRANSFORMATIONS
Good protection,
unless the error
produces correct
password
Reduce susceptibility
No protection if
depend on password;
otherwise, good
protection
Good protection,
unless bypassed
due to error
Reduce susceptibility
Good protection in
case of communication system
switching errors
No protection
No protection
Reduces susceptibility; work factor
determines the amount
of protection
No protection
Reduces susceptibility
Reduces susceptibility; work factor
No protection
If applied to communication circui ts may
reduce susceptibility
--------Wiretapping
-------Waste Basket
Deliberate, active:
IIBrowsing "
-- - - -
No protection
1"01::
--
''1:rpl'.:fc::ahle
No protection
THREAT MONITORING
(audits, logs)
Identifies the
Not applicable
"accident prone";
provides ~ facto
knowledge of
possible loss
- -f- -May help in
Minimizes possidiagnosis or
bilities for
accidents
provide ~
facto knowledge
determines the amount"
_ o~r~t~ti~ _ _
-f--- - Not applicable
------ -----Not applicable
Not aODlicable
Good' protection
(may' make masquerading necessary)
Reduces ease to oo.tair Good pr.,.tecUcm
desired information
------
--
INTEGRITY MANAGEMENT
(hardware, software,
personnel)
Identifies On!>UCcessf"l attempts;
Proper disposal
procedures
A:ides ather countet: measU.res
mal' provide ~
facrll1 knowledge or
"Perate re"l-
-I'Masquerading"
-- --
Must know authenticating passwords
(wo'rk fa'ctor to
obtain these)
C-fme alarms
!-- - - - - - ' - - -
No procecticm if
, Id'e17tiUes OTlStrCdepends on password~ 'c::e'ssful attempts.
otherwise, sufficient may p:'rovide' ~
facta knawIedge or
!, opeJr.l.te
re'altime: aliarms
Reduces ease to
obtain desired
inf orma tion
I
---
'Makes harder to obtain
infor=tt:iotT for masque.racfi.ng-; s.i:nce masquerading is' deception
may inhili'ft: 1I"",""ers
------
f--------- ---- ------,----- -'------, Fast facto analysis
Communicar:ioru network
'''Between lines lf
No protection
Limits the infilGood l'rotectian if
; ~a:-C:ivity may
integrity- helps
privac;:y transforentry
unless used for
trator to the same
provide knowledge of
every message
potential as the
mation changed in
pus sible loss
less time than
user whose line he
required by work
shares
factor
------ - -- -- -- ------"Piggy-back" entry
No protection but
reverse (processorto-user) authentication may help
Limits the infiltrator to the same
potential as the
user whose line he
shares
-- - -
--
Goad protection if
pri vacy transformation changed in
less time than
required by work
factor
----
, Post fa'cto analysis
~ctivity may
provide knowledge of
possible loss
Communication network
integri ty helps
------- ------ ------ ------ ---Entry by system
personnel
May have to masquerade
Reduces ease of obWork factor, unless
taining desired infor- depend an password
mation
and masquerading is
successful
No protection
Probably no protection
No protection
Erase private care
areas at swapping
time
Not applicable
Nat applicable
-
r- - Entry via "trap
doors"
-Physical
- -acquisi
- -tion
of removable files
SOURCE:
- -
-
-
---
Key to the entire
privacy protection
system
f-------
Possible alarms,
~ facto analysis
Protection through
initial verification
and subsequent maintenance of hardware
No protection unle"s
encoded processing
feasible
Possible alarms,
~ facta analysis
Nat applicable
Work factor, unless
access to keys
obtaim,d
Post facto knowledge
farm ~s of
personnel DlOVemen..tts--
Work fae tor. unless
access to keys
obtained
---------
---- -Care dumping to get
residual information
- -- -
Past: facta analysis
Of"activity may
provide knowledge of
l'ossihle lass
---
1967 SJCC AFIPS Conference
Proceedings (Volume 30)
116
~ ~ftware ~t~r'!'!y'
--- -----------Physical preventative
measures and devices
suggest hardware or an engineering solution.
When analysts from the
sO'-called "soft sciences" are confronted with problems, they suggest
ne\V' legislation and laws for problem solution.
The approach taken
here is a combination of technical and legal solutions.
Some of the public policy/legal control options that could be
invoked to accelerate and maximize the beneficial impacts of the
technology and to delay the adverse impacts are the following:
(a)
legislation to require holders of data banks to inform
citizens of information held and permit those people to
examine and correct information
(b)
system certification procedure whereby a data processing
installation could demonstrate through outside inspection by an official certification group (government and/
or industry) that it has met proper security/privacy
standards
(c)
licensing of personnel handling "sensitive" information
(d)
insurance and/or bonding, if appropriate
A program of strong federal governmental participation in this
area is being recommended by many organizations in our society, but
some would prefer that only a minimal control effort, perhaps at the
local level, be implemented or even that the action of the market
place essentially solve the problem in its own manner.
An example
of the comparison of these two concepts is illustrated in Exhibit 22.
Actually, it is quite probable that various communities of users
would develop and enforce specific security/privacy policies.
This
means that the defense community would have its policy and procedures
for security/privacy, the law enforcement community and the health
service and medical community would each have its policy and procedures for security/privacy.
There would be a strong interaction
117
EXHIBIT 22
STRONG NATIONAL PROGRAM VS. LOCAL OPTIONS OR
ORDINARY MARKET PLACE ACTIONS
RE SECURITY/PRIVACY
~ONOPTION
CRITERIA
~
MARKET PLACE
AND
STRONG FEDERAL PROGRAM
LOCAL PROGRAMS
(1)
Controllability
There is a relatively
high probability that
the problem of violation
of security/privacy can
be significantly altered
if adequate resources
(planning, R&D, and legislation all at the
national level) are
allocated.
Although some think
that the operational
market place or a
local control could
handle the problem,
nonetheless, this
does not seem to be
very realistic.
(2)
Worth
The advocates for a
strong federal program
have considerable
support from the information presently
available to indicate
that action should be
taken.
The advocates for
the minimal control
position either feel
that a minimal alteration is sufficient
or that perhaps no
outside effort is
required.
(3)
Priority
This would be one of
the highest priority
items ranking close to
and perhaps at the top.
Relatively low priority.
(4)
Effectiveness
This control option
should have a major
impact on reducing the
security/privacy
problem.
There might be some
reduction in the
security/privacy
problem but it would
probably remain as a
major liability.
(5)
Cost (Sponser)
The derivation of the
costs would be one of
the objectives of the
R&D program described
later in this chapter.
This again would be
the subject of a R&D
effort. Although the
direct cost may be
minimal, the indirect
costs of various
types of damages
could be quite large.
118
EXHIBIT 22 (Concluded)
STRONG NATIONAL PROGRAM VS. LOCAL OPTIONS OR
ORDINARY MARKET PLACE ACTIONS
RE SECURITY/PRIVACY
~IONOPTION
_~RITERIA ~
MARKET PLACE
AND
STRONG FEDERAL PROGRAM
LOCAL' PROGRAMS
Again, this requires
additional R&D because,
although on the surface
this option may have
minimal indirect
problems, still the
impact. of ·the securityl
privacy issue itself
~ould be enbrmous~
(6)
Nonfinancial
Problems
Again, the subject
of R&D program, but
there may be ad~itional
administrative or
-overhead problems.
(7)
Institutional
Obstacles
Requires new legislation, probably' a ~~w
administrative system
or at least amodification of the interaction of some of the
government agencies.
(8)
Uncertainty
Considerable uncertainty with respect to
the.details of solutions, and therefore,
a major. objective in
the R&D program plan.
Minimal institutional
'~bstacles -- indeed,
institutional obstacles
may very well be the
major for.ce. backipg
this option.
Considerable uncertainti ~it~ ~espect to
the cIa ims tpa t mini:mal effort is adequate.
-:
119
between technology oriented (computers and communications} organizatons/agencies and the user communities.A specific procedure which might be implemented regarding the
security/privacy problem and its solution for the types of users
described in this study (i.e., doctors, lawyers, educators, decision
makers, systems and policy analysts, the average citizen) is· the
decoupling of the user and the system__
Since these classes of users
in general would have no requirement to know the specific detail
innerworkings of the system, they can use it as a virtual "black
box."
The system would speak his vocabulary
doctors, legal terms to lawyers, etc.
medical terms to
It also means that these users
would be restricted to higher order languages and query languages,
and that they would be permitted to use only ueompletelyH checked
out compilers and systemS..
~erever
feasible y debugging, testing ,.
installing and certification of new systems and modifications
should be decoupled from the user and his environment.
To be effective, this procedure would have to be strictly
enforced.
In. addition, for the projected time frame, 1980 to 1985,
the advances in technology, (increased speed, decreased cost, and
decreased size) should be utilized to enhance the security of systems
by including redundancy of cri tical security sys.tem elements and
encryption of the data bank itself.
This would be a protection
against unauthorized access, either by on-line consoles or by special
analysis of removable storage media.
This systemrs designwou1d
include backup files and redundant encryption equipment for continued
operation and protection against losing good information in encrypted
form because of the malfunction of an encryption device.
Again, as
a matter of policy, the system security/privacy must be included as
a major goal from the very conception of the initial design and be
carried forward through implementation and final test and evaluation
a~
one of the primary system objectives.
120
In addition, as a matter
of policy, those individuals concerned with designing, programming"
testing, operating, and managing/controlling the system should
receive the equivalent of security clearance checks and investigations~
The depth of these investigations· would be determined by
cost/benefit considerations including, but not necessarily restricted
to, the sensitivity and value of the system's information.
Finally,
there should be established a "devil's advocate," "break-in,." test
team which is composed of knowledgeable individuals who are adequately
motivated to perform in the role of the "opposition,-H whoever they
may be.
Additional information with respect to the security/privacy
problem is included later in this chapter.
Monitoring Systems
When one considers a field as vast as that projected for the
computer-communication technology for the next 10 to 15 years, it
is rather obvious that a strong. monitoring system would be necessary,
and that it would feed into a research and development program for
technology assessment..
One of the major areas that should be monitored
is unemployment due to computer/automation.
The actual unemployment
figures and their causes should be gathered and analyzed on a continuing basis.
The same is true for statistics on various legal cases
resulting from computer system failures when in an operational condition, or· failure of a computer-based system to perform within contractual requirements.
Another item in the monitoring category would be
the collection of general information and statistics with respect
to the improved performance of the computer-commuriications industry
of the "Soviet Union.
This would include performance data on their
central planning network with its planned 800 computer centers.
Another monitoring category would be observation of advancement in
the directed R&D efforts mentioned in Chapter II.
121
The function of. the.moni,toring or wa.rning system would be to "
collect.information continually that is pertinentto,the assessment
o£ technology .., For instance, if -one wer,e to assess the interaction
between computer-c,ommunications, netw9rks and transportation and "th~ir
. ~ffect on th~ general public and business community, ,the ~l$SeS~ment
would be assisted by information gathered through various types of surveys of appropriate
segm~ntsof
the population, as well a,s.; by direct
collection of the! followingtren4 data:
(a)
change in the number of automobiles purchased and produced
(b)
employment in the automobile industry
(c)
economic impact on industries related to the automobile
industry, including unemployment
(d)
change in the rail, bus and airline industries
(e)
variations in related land use patterns.
Although at first view these trends may seem rather far" removed
from the subject of computer-communications networks, it is precisely
these effects which are envisioned by those forecasters who predict
that in. the future many professionals will be able to perform much
of their work at home with the aid of a terminal in a computercommunications network.
Even today, a professional person, who is
engaged in programming as part of his activities, with a time~sharing
computer terminal in his home could do much of his work there:, arid
travel to his office on perhaps only one or two days of the week to
receive additional guidance and to coordinate his efforts with those
of others engaged on the same project.
The trends wo'uld have to be
measured and correlated with computer-communication networks by
means of survey data in order to establish the existence and measure
the magnitude of any impact on transportation caused by the computer technology.
In addition, other information pertaining to
the overall economic and transportation situation of the country
122
would be gathered.
A thorough analysis would be performed
investigating various appropriate hypotheses including the computer
communications network hypothesis but also including other potential
causes for the trends illustrated by the collected data.
The objective would not be to preclude the advance of a new
technology, but rather, from the point of view of anticipatory
planning, to set up obviating devices, techniques, and procedures
in the overall national interest.
Obviating Devices
There are many potentially obviating devices and two examples
are legislative and educational.
Appropriate legislation would
allow an individual who might be injured through lack of privacy/
security in a data bank system to sue for and receive civil damages,
or punitive damages.
This would be a method of compensating
individuals for the misuse, unreliability, or perhaps exceptionalcase failure.
It can be observed that a major obviating device, pertaining to
the general computer technology problem, is more and proper education
for both adults and school children.
Some of this will occur naturally
when computers and, in particular, computer terminals are installed
in the general educational system,including colleges and universities,
high schools, and elementary schools.
There is a need, however, for
additional information at the adult level and courses in the curriculum
of the general school system which would give correct information on
the capabilities and problems of computers for a variety of realworld applications which the student will encounter in later life.
This would include such later life encounters as income tax filing,
bill payment, automatic control devices, and proper explanation of
advanced automated/adaptable computer systems (artificial intelligence,
chess playing, and the like).
This education should specifically
123
illustrate that computers are not infallible and should include discussions on such problems as errors in input data, system complexity,
and program debugging problems.
If the general public were properly educated regarding the limitations and capabilities of computers, if they were not objects of
mistery, then there probably would be less public resistance to appropriate utilization of these useful devices.
Also, a well-informed
public would be in a good position to insist on the development of
adequate safeguards to protect the citizenry from misapplication of
the technology.
Furthermore, when a problem does arise, an informed
individual will be in a better position to place the blame where it
belongs.
Concerning the dehumanizing of personal services, for example,
the medical profession, the computer can Le illustrated as the doctor's assistant and not some robot which would automatically make
decisions on life and death issues such as major operations or final
critical diagnosis.
There has recently been discussion of the publication of mis, f ormat1on
'
1n
on t h e capab'l"
1 1t1es 0 f computers. (53) A program 0 f
education for the generatl citizenry beginning at early ages and continuing at all levels would go a long way toward alleviating such
problems .
REPRESENTATIVE CATEGORIES OF USERS AND APPLICATIONS
To enable the analysis to be focused, a representative set of
applications and users has been chosen as an appropriate point of
departure in this methodology development pilot study.
In addition
to the applications/users classes defined below, the average-citizen
category was chosen to give essentially a general indication of the
overall impacts both positive and negative.
124
The average-citizen
category can be subdivided or extended for particular applications
when this becomes relevant and consistent with resources.
The representative applications/users classes chosen are as
follows:
(a)
Decision maker/decision making -- This includes the
use of the computer communication technology for
such decision-making organizations as the u.s.
Congress and the general Federal Government decisionmaking officials, as well as complex decision -making
at various levels throughout our society.
(b)
Policy sciences/analysis and systems analysis -- This
category is complementary with the decision-making
process and, in certain cases, the two classes will
blend together.
(c)
Professions--medical, legal, educational--This
includes a very broad or generic definition of the
terms involved.. Hedical includes: medical schools,
hospitals, private practitioners, group health
organizations, and the general administration of
health and health delivery system of our society
including medical research and development efforts.
The legal area includes the administration of
justice, crime prevention, the court systems,
criminal detection, apprehension, conviction and
rehabilitation. Educational includes the entire
educational system, both formal and informal, adult
education, training and retraining, the universities,
the business schools, colleges, elementary and
secondary schools, and home education. These user
classes can also be thought of as user communities.
Some examples are the educational community, the law
enforcement community, and the health service
community.
When reporting on the analysis of the data collected. there are
three terms which sometimes can be used to differentiate the state
of technology and its application.
The following are presented as
working definitions for the purposes of this paper.
125
(a)
Technological perfection -- This is considered to be
somewhat similar to "an initial operating capability."
It essentially means that the technology has· been
"perfected" well enough to be used in an initial
operational sense for prototype, proof-testing, pilot
operation, and initial trials; i.e., beyond the R&D
stage and entering into operation.
(b)
Initial application -- The particular technological
advance or innovation is being used by at least a small
percentage of the potential market in an operational
sense and that the technology is a step beyond the
technological perfection stage. This step beyond may
be in terms of acceptance of the innovation as well as
the advances in technology "reliability."
(c)
Full application -- This means that the technological
innovation has been accepted by a substantial number
of potential users, perhaps greater than 50 percent. It
also means that some of the institutional barriers with
respect to social, political, and psychological inertia
have been overcome; and that the cost-effectiveness,
reliability, and general operational performance are
in a fairly satisfactory state for operational, useroriented application of the technology.
Among the types of questions that are included in impact analysis
are:
(a)
How likely or certain is it that a specific impact
will actually occur?
(b)
How soon after the development of a technology would
the impact be felt?
(c)
In what direction would an expected impact be favorable
or unfavorable?
(d)
What would be the magnitude of this impact, slight or
great?
(e)
How long would the impact endure? Would the initial
impact be self-reinforcing or self-reducing?
(f)
On whose initiative would the impact be generated,
industry, government, scientific community, etc.?
(g)
How controllable is the impact?
126
~reli~inary
assessmelJ:t with respect to these questions is
illustrated in Exhibit 23
t
'~Impact.
P.arameters of Computer, Tech-.
nology with Respect to Appropriate User Classes."
Various impacts..
were considered, including economic t social, environmental, health,
defense, 'attainment of national goals and setting of priorities, etc.
They are s.een as the result of application of computer technology
in the area chosen as a proxy, 'namely, 'computer-based information
networks.
The preliminary classification of the population into
the above described four.areas 'is based on judgment with respect to
methodology development and impacts, benefits and/or problems.
The entries in the matrix of Exhibit 23 represerit the results
of a "suminat:l.on" across several impact areas.
In a similiar matrix
relative to a single impact area, there normally would be greater
differences among the entries, pertaining to a given parameter, for
different user classes.
When examining the aggregation of impacts
in several areas; however, it can be noted from the first row of the
matrix that it is "highly likely" that each of the four classes of
users will experience impacts from computer-communications netw?rks.
From the
se~ond
row of the matrix it can be observed that the impacts
will occur first in the policy sciences, policy. analysis, and systems
analysis areas; second in decision making t medical, legal, and
educational areas; and later the average citizen will be affected
directly by the technology when it comes into full application.
The
third row of the matrix shows that, before control is implemented, all
of the user classes will experience both favorable and unfavorable
effects from the computer-based networks.
Similar uniformity across
user groups is revealed by the fourth row of the matrix which indicates
that the impacts will be highly controllable if planned for from the
beginning.
The fifth row .shows that for the average citizen the
impacts will be of only medium magnitude, while for the remaining
user groups the magnitude is potentially great for both favorable
and unfavorable impacts.
The last row of the matrix indicates that
127
A summary of the institutional factors relevant to this technology assessment is presented in Exhibit 24, "The Relationship Between
Institutional Factors and Relevant Application Classes. If
This table
gives an illustration of the types of institutional factors which
might impede the full and rapid application of the new technology
being assessed.
The information in Exhibits 23 and 24 is highly aggregated and
is in, qualitative form but, nonetheless, paints a "point-of-departure"
p-icture.
The key to this technology assessment of computers is the realization- that the computer is essentially the Hmachine" that drives the
computer-based information network, and that it is the information
and its analysis which are of fundamental importance with respect
to policy making and implementation.
The higher-level decision
making and analysis are of major importance with respect to such
areas as economic welfare of the country or the social-political
structure of the country.
As
an example of the impact of computers one might Hreverse
the arrow" and use computer technology or the computer-based information network as an innovative tool for the task of technological
assessment in general.
There would be devised, planned, and imple-
mented a system which would include the following:
(a)
various mathematical and statistical routines for
multiple regression, modeling, etc. (forecasting,
projections, evaluating impact)
128
EXHIBIT 23
IMPACT PARAMETERS OF COMPUTER T~CHNOLOGY WITH RESPECT TO
APPROPRIATE VSER CLASSES -- WITHOUT ACTION
OPTIONS*
~
IMPACT
PARAMETERS
I-'
N
\0
CLASSES
DECISION MAKER
DECISION MAKING
POLICY SCIENCES/
ANALYSIS
SYSTEMS ANALYSIS
PROFESSIONS MEDICAL, LEGAL,
EDUCATIONAL
AVERAGE CITIZEN
Likelihood of
specified impact
Highly likely
High ly like ly
High ly like ly
Highly likely
Lag time after
technology development
Bet'Ween initial
and full applica.
tions time-frame
Bet'Ween technologicCll "perfection"
and initial application time-frame
Between initial ap
pltcation and full
application timeframe
Approximately full
application timeframe
Impact direction favorable, or
unfavorable
Both favorable &
unfavorable
before control is
implemented
Both favorable &
unfavorable before
control is implemented
Both favorable &
unfavorable before
control is implemented
Both favorable and
unfavorable before
control is implemen ted
Controllability
of impact
High i f planned
for from the
beginning
High i f planned
for from the
beginning
High i f planned
for from the
beginning
High if planned for
from the
beginning
Magnitude - slight
or great
Potentially great
in both
directions
Potentially great
in both directions
Potentially great
in both directions
Medium and perhaps
more unfavorable
than favorable
1980-85 and
beyond i f
evaluati.on and
acceptance is
good
1980~85 and
beyond i f
evaluation and
acceptance ~s
good
1980 .. 85 and
beyond i f
evaluation and
acceptance is
good
1980 .. 85 and beyond
if evaluation and
acceptance is good
Duration of impact
*Exhibits 23 and 24 are presented for comparison or contrast with Exhibits 27 and 28. Taken together they
give a preliminary illustration of the situation before and after public action options are implemented.
These four tables also illustrate the general commonality of obstacles and impacts across application
classes and user groups. There are, however, differences in the details 'Which 'Would become evident 'When
specific studies are performed.
EXHIBIT 24
THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INSTITUTIONAL
FACTORS AND RELEVANT APPLICATION CLASSES -- WITHOUT ACTION OPTIONS*
I
DECIS ION MAKER
DECISION MAKING
POLICY SCIENCES/
ANALYSIS
SYSTEMS ANALYSIS
Quite great until
either new personnel or considerable
education
Considerable unless
background or
interests relevant
to the technology
Considerable until
major educational
program'
When applicable,mostly
lack of information
Quite great before
adequate controls
implemented
Quite great before
adequate controls
implemented
Quite great before
adequate controls
implemented
Where applicable,problem of misuse and
exploitation
Can be great if
innovative organizati~n~l structure
recommended
Function of specific application
Potentially quite
great if innovative
organizational
.
structure
recommended.
Considerable resources
may be required
Quite great - will IMedium level probrequire perhaps
lem
cultural reeducation
Qui te great and" may
require considerable time
Potentially very
great because of lack
of information and
overabundence of misinformation
I
Political
Legal
!-I
Administrative/
Organizational
Vol
o
Social/psychological
inertia and custom/
tradition'
PROFESSIONS MEDICAL, LEGAL,
EDUCATIONAL
AVERAGE CITIZEN
*Exhibits 23 and 24 are presented for comparison or contrast with Exhibits 27 and 28. Taken together they
give a preliminary illustration of the situation before and after public action options are implemented.
These four tables also illustrate the general commonality of obstacles and impacts'across applications
classes and user, groups. There are, however, differences in the details which would become evident when
specific- studies are p e r f o r m e d . '
.
.
,
(b)
the design and implementation of such techniques as
the on-line multiple-access DELPHI capability
(c)
the data bank devoted to assessment of various areas
of technology which would include: whole text,
abstracts, results of former studies or case histories,
etc.
(d)
data bank information and computer programs for
producing the macro- state-of-the-universe and
potential scenarios. This would include the census
data and results of other surveys
(e)
the capability to obtain information from various
data banks regarding new technology for updating
older information
(f)
a subsystem for computer-assisted text editing which
would reduce the time requirements for the production
of interim and draft reports for their review and
evaluation. The potential and relevance of such a
system are illustrated by Dr. Edward David, Jr.,
in the following quotation:
I am one of those people for whom writing
an article involves much editing and rewriting.
My secretary may actually retype the complete
manuscript three or four times, and she may
spend up to a couple of days working on it.
So in preparing this article, I decided to
push the burden of retyping off onto a digital
computer.
Today, reaching a computer by telephone is
no trick at all -- as a result of new techniques
for sharing a computer's time, many people can
use a single machine simultaneously from many
locations. For this article, my secretary simply
typed the first draft into a computer memory
from a simple teletypewriter console near her
desk. Afte"r that she made changes by first
typing a code name to activate a special editing
program, and then retyping only the revised
words or sentences, indicating where in the
manuscript they should go. The computer program
inserted the new words in their proper places
and typed out a complete clean manuscript,
saving several hours(of typing and proofreading
time in the process. 54)
131
This system would be devised so that the computer technology
would be of assistance to technology assessment, in general, and
it is emphasized that such a proposed system would be user-oriented
(i.e., vs. programmer-oriented) and would include a user-oriented
vocabulary and on-line terminals.
Such a system would be useful
for systems and policy analysts in their technology assessments
and also would be of assistance to both decision makers and the
analyst when meetings are held to decide on alternative courses
of action, i.e., action options with respect to a particular
technology.
This could result in recommendations for legisla-
tion as well as technical standards or executive orders.
There are several technological applications to major areas
of national well-being.
Some of these are listed in Chapter I.
As stated there, this study includes a minimal investigation of
various computer technology applications and an in-depth investigation of particular areas.
Exhibit 25 illustrates some elements
of the entire computer technology problem which would be of
immediate concern to an R&D program.
The words "major" and
"minor" in that table mean either:
(a)
the general impact will be major or minor
(b)
the action options will require major or minor
quantities of resources
The table illustrates a division into three categories: "major"
which requires significant resources and/or will have a heavy impact;
"minor;" which probably will not require extensive study or significant resources; and "moot:' which means that more information is
needed for categorizing the element,and it will be placed in a
warning or monitoring system category, i.e., they may become major
within the time frame, and as additional information is gathered,
an
appropr~ate
adjustment should be made in the R&D program.
132
EXHIBIT 25
RELEVANCY TABLE
RELEVANCY WITH RESPECT TO IMPACT
AND/OR QUANTITY OF RESOURCES
NECESSARY FOR ACTION OPTION
IMPACT, PROBLEM OR BENEFIT
Security and privacy for both the
individual and organization
Major
Legal rights, "due process" and
problems such as copyrights
Moot
Economic effect/unemployment/
automation
Moot
Diversity versus conformity with
Minor (if handled properly)
respect to citizen values and life
styles
New business and consumer services Probably minor (not that there
as well as improvements thereof
won't be an impact but rather
that major action implementation
from the point of view of the
nation/U.S. Government is
probably not required)
Reducing the cost of services
Minor (again in a sense that major
action resources need not be
allocated to this impact -- the
impact itself might be quite
relevant and major depending upon
individual services and their desirability in the cost/benefits
sense)
Better utilization of certain
scarce skills (e.g., medical personnel, decision maker/analyst
personnel, policy analysts, legal
personnel, educational personnel
Major
Reducing the drudgery associated
with certain menial (e.g.,
clerical) tasks
Minor (in the sense of action option resources necessary -- this
can be an important impact when
taken in connection with some of
the other impact complications)
Possible "dehumanizing" of consumer services (e.g., professional
services or customer relations
services)
Minor (in a sense that with proper
education/explanation and analysis,
this shouldn't require major resources for the action program
envisioned)
133
RESEARCH, DEVELOPMENT, AND MONITORING PROGRAM PLAN
Summary of Requirements for RD & M Program
Conclusions reached during the Computer Pilot Study are as
follows:
(a)
Computer technology itself, including the projected
computer communications, data banks, man-machine
interaction, etc., is of such a scope that there is
no possibility of a simple substitution of another
technology and the real question is the guidance of
the technology rather than its replacement.
(b)
The main objective for technological assessment in
the case of this pilot study would be to answer two
major questions: First, what impending major
problems are present or projected? And second, what
opportunities for major potential benefits are being
missed (or might be)?
(c)
The method of measuring progress, both in the computer
field and development of methods for technology
assessment, is to establish research, development, and
monitoring R&D programs for assessing computer technology. Program objectives should be defined to be
consistent with the technological progress desired,
and these on-going programs should be evaluated on
a yearly basis. The evaluations would indicate
progress made towards a full solution of the problems,
or towards realization of the full potential of the
innovative technology.
Sufficient Justification
The evidence in Exhibits 19 and 25 clearly indicates that there
are sufficient grounds to instigate a research, development, and
monitoring program.
In addition, the discussion in Chapter V,
Special Problem Impact -- Security/Privacy, indicates the seriousness of this one problem.
Stating this another way, even though
there is much uncertainty with respect to events a decade or more
134
in the future, enough independent evidence has been gathered to
project serious problems and major opportunities associated with
computer technology.
Such a program should begin at the earliest
feasible time with the expectation that it would continue for the
foreseeable future.
Research and Development Program Plan
The goals and objectives of the R&D effort would be made
specific during the first year of the program, but would include,
as a point of departure, an attack on some of the specific problems discussed in this study, and research to accelerate the
progress towards innovations which would be particularly productive
from the pointof view of the professional person who is not an
accomplished programmer.
The mechanism of translating research
and development in this area to national goals is the use of the
key professions and communities of users as illustrated in
Exhibits 23 and 24 and again in Exhibits 27 and 28.
The time-frame
for this proposed program would be in the 1970's and 1980's,
and in reality, one could conclude that the time-frame should
extend for the foreseeable future with varying allocation of
resources depending on the criticality of present and projected
problems and potential opportunities.
There would be large-scale
experiments which would be performed by the coordinated effort of
science/technology-oriented organizations and mission-oriented
organizations.
Some Specific Program Objectives and Ideas
A point-of-departure list of objectives which might be
included in the plan to be developed during the first year of such
a program is: as follows:
135
(a)
There should be a cost/benefit analysis of the security/
privacy problem with respect to the value of the information protected and the cost of this protection. This
can be a very complicated analysis because of several
factors. The first one of which can be illustrated by
the following quotation by Willis H. Ware:
••. The state of the art for information
safeguards in computer systems does not permit
a handbook approach to the subject; only general
principles and guidelines can be stated.~~~)
Second, the value of information obtained from the data
bank may be greater to the individual or organization
breaking the security/privacy system than to those who
are protecting the system. This may be particularly
true in a commercial environment, if there were "third
parties" or other parties who may be injured by those
:who have broken the system's security. This wo.uld indeed
lead to the necessity for action options, such as strong
governmental policy, including legislation which would
ensure protection and/or redress to the injured parties.
(b)
Research should be specifically directed towards the
objectives listed in Chapter II under the heading,
"Breakthroughs and Directed Research and Development
Needed." (A major input for the setting of priorities
and allocation of resources would be obtained from the
monitoring of R&D progress in both government and
industry.)
(c)
The plan for an overall educational program, whose objectives are described herein would have to be developed.
(d)
A method would have to be developed for thorough analysis of
the interaction of various technology assessment impacts
using on-line computer simulations and on-line Delphi
Techniques. It is recommended that there be a detailed
investigation of the applicability of Forrester's
Urban Dynamics and The Dynamo Compiler for these
analyses. A quotation from Urban Dynamics indicates
that this might be a very fruitful area for research
since some of the technology assessment impacts both
in general and for computer technology include complex
social, economic and national government areas:
136
Complex systems have special responses which
cause many of the failures and frustrations experienced in trying to improve their behavior. As used
here the phrase "complex system" refers to a highorder, multiple-loop, nonlinear feedback structure.
All social systems belong to this class. The management structure of a corporation has all the characteristics of a complex system. Similarly, an urban
area, a national government, economic processes,
and international trade all are complex systems.
Complex systems have many une~ected and little
understood characteristics. (56)
(e)
Some of the ideas for analysis, research, and development
found in Farquhar's Applications of Advanced Technology to
Undergraduate Medical Education should be adopted. (57)
(This report is particularly interesting because it was
prepared as one portion of continuing research and
concerns undergraduate medical education, describes
alternative ways in which technology might increase
both the quality and quantity of such education, and
details a comprehensive plan for further study of this
problem. This analysis interacts with the areas of
medicine, education, and decision making/analysis. The
following partial summary quoted from the article cited
above illustrates part of what should be done.)
This Memorandum concerns undergraduate medical
education, and the ways in which advanced technology
might bring about substantial changes in both the
quantity and quality of graduates. Five such applications are described:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
computer-assisted instruction;
computer-assisted self-evaluation;
an ultra-microfiche retrieval and display
system;
Electronic Video Recording (EVR);
two multimedia aids known as the 'Clinical
Encounter Simulator' and the 'Patient
Management Decision Aid.,(58)
137
Point of Departure:
Resources and Action Options
Although the initial program could be started at almost any
level, it is suggested that appropriate resources for the first
year's program would be on the order of five professional people
with their required support personnel, terminals, machine-time, etc.
Exhibit 26 presents in tabular form a summary, with examples,
of the action options being considered.
RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM EVALUATION
The evaluation procedure has as its objective a demonstration
of the change, hopefully improvement, in the contribution of the
technology (computer-communications, in this case) towards our
national goals.
There are many lists of potential national goals
and a useful example 1s the following abbreviated statement of
goals. (59)
The list presented here is an abbreviated form of the
goals listed in Reference (59).
(a)
effective and efficient government
(b)
peace
(c)
eliminate poverty
(d)
equal opportunity (education, housing, employment, voting)
(e)
preserve environment
(f)
family planning
(g)
decent housing
(h)
employment
(i)
education
(j)
health
138
EXHIBIT 26
TYPES OF ACTION OPTIONS
MAJOR CATEGORIES
EXAMPLES
Control Over R&D Funds
A monitoring system which would
supply information regarding
industry's performance in attaining
the objectives listed in Chapter II
as needed breakthroughs. Sufficient
R&D funds then should be allocated
to make up for any deficiencies in
industry's progress.
Other Financial Incentive
Schemes
Government grants or contracts to
accomplish some of the research and
analysis identified above, also,
compensation for damages caused by
computer-based information systems/
data banks, etc. College scholarships a\varded in the relevant areas.
Law and Regulations
Legislation on the security/privacy
issue and perhaps on patents and
copyrights; court decisions reflecting the aforementioned legislation;
licenses where appropriate for
computer data bank operations;
mandatory standards probably at
several levels for the security and
privacy issue; inspection requirements for certification of proper
security/privacy of ADP based
information systems; fines and
punitive damages when privacy/
security has been violated or other
damages caused by computer-based
systems; registration and mandatory
reporting of computer-based information systems/data banks containing
sensitive/private information.
Education and Indoctrination
Large-scale educational program to
communicate proper background for
computer concepts and computer
usage; conferences and symposia to
assist in communication of relevant
information for advanced applications; public (e.g., Congressional)
hearings to produce background for
legislation and public disseminatioD
of infoTITlation.
139
(k)
consumer protection
(1)
economic growth
(m)
criminal justice
(n)
urban transportation
(0)
population growth (carefully planned program in anticipation thereof)
It can be seen by inspection that Exhibits 27 and 28 can be used
to assist in evaluation.
The prafessions, users (or communities of
users), and applications listed in these tables certainly would
be involved in striving toward achievement of national goals.
These tables should be compared with Exhibits 23 and 24 to
illustrate the potential difference after the appropriate action
options and research and development programs have been implemented.
It might appear that this is the "before and after" picture, but
that is not quite the case.
Exhibits 27 and 28 should be thought
of more as describing long range goals.
At any given time, the
extent to which progress has been made from the situation described
by Exhibits 23 and 24 in the direction of that described by
Exhibits 27 and 28 is an overall qualitative measure of the effectiveness of the action options and the R&D program that has
been implemented.
It must be remembered that these are highly
aggregated, qualitative characteristics that should be divided
into more quantified measures and submeasures.
Some of the
measures expressed in Chapter IV under the heading, Microlevel
Impacts, are appropriate.
In addition, various questionnaires,
polls, and samplings of the user categories expressed in these
tables would be designed, utilized, and evaluated.
This informa-
tion would indicate the degree to which the innovative technology
had been productive or, if certain problems occurred, counterproductive during a specific year (or any particular time frame).
140
EXHIBIT 27
IMPACT PARAMETERS OF COMPUTER TECHNOLOGY WITH RESPECT TO
APPROPRIATE USER CLASSES -- WITH ACTION OPTIONS IMPLEMENTED*
~
CLASSES
IMPACT
PARAMETERS
I-'
~
I-'
DECISION MAKER
DECISION MAKING
POLICY SCIENCES/
ANALYSIS
SYSTEMS ANALYSIS
PROFESSIONS MEDICAL, LEGAL,
EDUCATIONAL
AVERAGE CITIZEN
Like lihood of
specified impact
Highly likely
Highly likely
Highly likely
Highly likely
Lag time after
technology development
Between initial
and full applications time-frame
Between technological IIperfectionll
and initial application time-frame
Between initial application and full
application timeframe
Approximately full
application timeframe
Impact direction favorable, or
unfavorable
Favorable
Favorable
Favorable
Favorable
Controllability of
impact
High i f planned
for from the
beginning
High if planned
for from the
beginning
High if planned
for from the
beginning
High if planned for
from the
beginning
Magnitude - slight
or great
Potentially great
in the favorable
direction
Potentially great
in the favorable
direction
Potentially great
in the favorable
direction
Substantial in the
favorable direction
Duration of impact
1980-85 and beyond
if evaluation and
acceptance is good
1980-85 and beyond
if evaluation and
acceptance is good
1980-85 and beyond
if evaluation and
acceptance is good
1980-85 and beyond
if evaluation and
acceptance is good
1....---
-
*Exhibits 27 and 28 are presented for comparison or contrast with Exhibits 23 and 24. Taken together they
give a preliminary illustration of the situation before and after public action options are implemented.
These four tables also illustrate the general commonality of obstacles and impacts across application
classes and user groups. There are, however, differences in the details which would become evident when
specific studies are performed.
EXHIBIT 28
THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INSTITUTIONAL
fACTORS AND RELEVANT APPLICATION CLASSES-- WITH ACTION OPTIONS IMPLEMENTED*
~
CLASSES
INSTIWTIONAL OBSTACLES
DECISION MAKER
DECISION MAKING
POLICY SCIENCES/
ANALYSIS
SYSTEMS ANALYSIS
PROFESSIONSMEDICAL, LEGAL,
EDUCATIONAL
I
AVERAGE CITIZEN
I
I
I
Political
Greatly reduced
Greatly reduced
Grea t 1y reduced
When applicable minimal
Legal
Minimal
Minimal
Minimal
Minimal
~
+=-N
I
Administrative/
Organiza tiona 1
Under control
Function of
specific application and manageable
Under control
Function of education
.
I
Socia1/phycho1ogica1
inertia and custom/
tradition
Function of
cultural
acceptance
Minimal
Function of
organization and
cultural
acceptance
Significant
reduction
L -__
*Exhibits 27 and 28 are presented for comparison or contrast with Exhibits 23 and 24. Taken together they
give a preliminary illustration of the situation before and after public action options are implemented.
These four tables also illustrate the general commonality of obstacles and impacts across application
classes and user groups. There are, however, differences in the details which would become evident when
specific studies are performed.
I
I
I
I
Some examples of specific items of information for this
evaluation are as follows:
(a)
the amount of money saved for important additional
national goals achieved through bett~r decisionmaking and policy analysis at the federal government level achieved at least partially through the
assistance of computer-based information processin5
networks (For example, Exhibit 29 illustrates a
projection of what the federal government might
spend over a decade for social-need projects.
If there is a saving of only 10 percent, this would
be 160 billion dollars which could be reallocated
to critical areas in these programs.)
(b)
the amount of information which the professional
person and the average citizen has absorbed as a
result of the education program included in the action
options and R& D effort (One of the significant problems
with respect to understanding and misunderstanding the
computer is the comparison with the human brain, the
popular jargon or "giant brain" syndrome. The follow:i.ng
quotation illustrates this:)
'Thinking' Machines
A large percentage of computer experts have recognized
the limitations of restricting the use of the computer
to mathematical optimizing techniques. They have
proposed programming the computer like a human
brain. Such artificial intelligence would draw inferences, learn from mistakes, and. search associative
memories for suitable parallel situations, just as a
good manager does. The startling early successes in
this field led to great expectations and many attempts
to implement the potentialities.
In the fascinating RAND Corporation memorandum
entitled Alchemy and Artificial Intelligence, Hubert
Dreyfus has made a thorough study of these attempts.
He surveys efforts to move beyond the very promising
beginnings in chess playing, theorem proving, translation, and musical composition, and shows that even
in these simplified environments there has been no
significant progress. He likens our expectations,
143
EXHIBIT 29
DURI NG THE NEXT TEN YEARS THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT WI LL
SPEND FOR SOCIAL-NEED PROJECTS*
PROJECT
EXPENDITURE IN BILLIONS
$ 2.0
Agricultural research
Highways
50.0
Mass transit
15.0
Transportation services
20.0
Education
300.0
Health
450.0
Welfare
700.0
Urban redevelopment
60.0
Water and power
50.0
Retraining
19.0
Total more than $1.6 trillion
*This projection is presented for illustrative purposes only. The
projected data in the table was obtained from the cited source and
is one forecast among a possible spectrum of predictions.
Source: M. J. Certron, '~Method for Integrating Goals and Technological Forecasts into Planning," Technological Forecasting and Social
Change, Volume 2, Number 1, 1970, p. 44. Original source: "LongRange Planning Study, "Marketing Magazine, July 15, 1967, p. 15,
Douglas Aircraft Missiles and Space Systems Division.
144
based on early successes that we could get computers
to think creatively, to the claim that the first man
who climbed a tree had achieved tangible progress
toward reaching the moon.
Dreyfus concludes that digital computers cannot
replicate such essential aspects of human thought as
fringe consciousness (an awareness of cues in the
environment which are too numerous to be considered
explicitly), as what he calls "essence-accident
discrimination" (an ability to sort out the necessary
from the incidental characteristics), and as ambiguity
tolerance (a willingness to deal with variables that
are not precisely defined but are useful to the
problems at hand). Yet these attributes are essential
for managerial decision making. (60)
The degree to which a surveyor poll shows an understanding
of this matter would be another evaluation indicating
prog~ess and success for the program.
The relevant
professional societies such as AMA, ABA, NEA, ORSA, and
TIMS could be of considerable assistance in collecting
data as well as promoting educational programs.
(c)
"Recently, computer experts from the RAND Corporation,
Santa Monica, and the University of California at Los
Angeles, in a private exercise, formed themselves into
offensive (cheating) and defensive (detecting) teams
to test the possiblity of cheating and detecting cheating in the counting of votes in computerized systems.
In all tests the offensive or cheating teams were able
to win.,,(6l) Such procedures could be used to test
progress on security/privacy research development and
policy. It also indicates a specific problem area,
namely, election rigging which would probably be
examined on a high-priority basis.
The evaluation program itself would be worked out in detail
first, and progress would be explicitly recorded and evaluated
continually on an annual basis.
One of the major points of this
evaluation is essentially a continuing reassessment of the technology including evaluation, forecasts, and projections so that
improved forecasting methods can be devised.
The same is true for
impact models using highly interactive feedback systems.
145
CHAPTER VII
FORECASTS/PROJECTIONS,
UNCERTAINTY, AND ANALYSIS OF FUT~ IMPACTS
There are many methods of forecasting technological developments
and analyzing probable impacts which might, at least initially, be
divided into the following classes:
a.
intuitive methods-- including individuals, polls,
panels, and the Delphi Technique with its modifications
b.
development of scenarios
c.
trend extrapolation -- including simple trend extrapolation, curve-fitting with judgment, and envelope curves
d.
statistical techniques -- including regression and
correlation analysis and precursor events
e.
analogies -- including historical and growth analogies
f.
modeling -- including gaming-simulation, interindustry
input/output analysis, and network methods.
The Delphi technique with modification and the use of scenarios
are especially applicable to forecasting computer technology developments.
In general, the requirements of any project must be balanced
against the resources available.
This includes the data bank of
information required for the various types of analyses and the availability of analysis tools, e.g., a computer with multiple-access online features.
There is considerable literature available with
respect to most of the techniques; however, the major problem is the
integration of the proper techniques with the data bank and facilities
available.
An important part of the problem is the determination and
presentation of the uncertainty associated with the assessment.
146
DELPHI TYPE TECHNIQUES
The Delphi technique and its modifications are probably
extremely useful with respect to these problems.
This tech-
nique has three major features:
anonymity; controlled feedback;
and statistical group response.
The anonymity is obtained by
the use of questionnaires or other formal communication channels,
such as on-line computer communication, and is a method for reducing
the effect of dominant individuals in the group.
The controlled
feedback is produced by conducting the analysis in a series of
rounds between which a summary of the results of the previous
rounds is communicated to the participants.
The statistical analy- .
sis of the group response is a method of reducing group pressure
for conformity and it is possible for a significant spread in individual opinions to exist at the end of the analysis.
One of the problems that a decision ·maker faces is the fact
that at times he may request advice from experts with apparently
equivalent credentials and receive significantly different answers
to the same question.
A relevant question pertaining to the
method, therefore, is whether or not the above problem occurs when
using two different groups.
According to experiments by the Rand
Corporation (Exhibits 30 and 31), average group error and "reliability" of the technique appear to be quite acceptable, with sufficient
group size and properly chosen individual participants.(62)
It should be noted that there are now systems for performing
on-line Delphi conferences/analyses and one of these systems is
operational in the Federal Government in the Office of Emergency
Preparedness (OEP).
A recent on-line computer meeting experiment
conducted by Dr. Murry Turoff of OEP included individuals across
the nation who were affiliated with government, industry, nonprofit
147
1.2
1.1
1.0
.9
AVERAGE
GROUP
ERROR
.8
.7
.6
.5
.4
1
5
9
13
17
21
25
29
NUMBER IN GROUP
Source: Norman C. Dalkey, The Delphi Hethod: An Experimental
Study of Group Opinion, Memorandum RN-5888-PR, The Rand
Corporation, June 1969, p. 11.
EXHIBIT 30
EFFECT OF G ROUP SIZE
148
.9
.7
.6
MEAN
p
.5
.4
J-I
.3
.j:'-
\0
.2
.1
0
3
5
7
NUMBER IN GROUP
Source: Norman C. Dalky, The Delphi Method: An Experimental
Study of Group Opinion, Memorandum RM-5888-PR, The Rand
Corporation, June 1969, p. 13.
EXHIBIT 31
RELIABILITY VS. GROUP SIZE
9
11
13
organizations, and universities.
Almost half of the individuals
involved had no previous experience with computers.
The costs
incurred during the 13-week experiment were relatively low with the
respondents using about 100 hours of terminal time and less than one
hour of processing time for a total cos t of less than $.1,500 if
calculated at commercial time-sharing rates.
SCENARIOS
Scenarios can be though of as artificial "case histories."
Since there are many possible situations for the future it can be
instructive to devise a scenario of what would, or at least could,
occur under given circumstances.
Development of a scenario requires
describing in some detail a hypothetical sequence of events that
could lead plausibly to the projected situation.
Since the number
of possible scenarios of the future is enormous, the productive ones
are those which involve a relevant projected problem or future state
which presents worthwhile opportunities for the investment of
resources.
UNCERTAINITY AND REPRESENTATIVENESS
No matter what technique is used for projecting the future there
is significant uncertainty, and a sensitivity analysis with respect
to at least a representative set of major assumptions and alternatives
should be investigated as far as it is feasible within the constraint
of the given resources.
It should be emphasized that to be realistic
one cannot be exhaustive when dealing with the complex interactions
of a future wide-scope technological assessment.
One would like,
therefore, to be as comprehensive as possible and, most important
·of all, as representative as possible.
150
One should, therefore, use the following procedure:
(a)
divige the elements under consideration into major
classes
(b)
choose representatives from these classes (perhaps
randomly if appropriate)
(c)
perform the analysis with respect to the chosen representative elements
(d)
iterate the procedure if resources permit with a
separately chosen set
(e)'
'illustrate.' the'sensitivity of the results (c'onclusion/
recommendations, etc.)'
(f)
in the technological assessment procedure set up a
system such that a reassessment can be made either as
part of a . continuing effort or-at intervals such as 1,
3, 5, or 10 years (In this rea'ssessment, a careful
analysis6f problems vs.-progre~s should be made.,
any potential problems which might have been put in a
"warning system category" or a '''moni toring ca.:tegory"
should be.·giv·en special attention during this reassess~ent. )
,
Exhibit
exhaustive.
32 illustrates the difficulty in attempting to be
when" one makes certain assumptions/projections with
respect to conditions in the future and their various impacts with
respect to technological assessment,the.following problem arises.
Even if one-chooses only three values, such, as high, average, and
low (or 90, 50, and 10 percent) for a particular characteristic or
element within a major class of impact categories or constraints,
and if ten elements
~re
chOsen to represent each area of category
(political, economical, sociological, environmental, administrative/
political (institutional),' demographic, values and life style, and
perhaps, the area of projected technology itself) then this produces
a total number of combinations which are quite astronomical, approximately equal to 10 33 , 10 38 , and, in some cases, perhaps even 10 48 .
151
EXHIBIT 32
COMBINATORIAL.PROBLEM
vs.
RAW. COMPUTER SPEED*
Number of
Combinations
Computer
Speed in
·Oper at:[ons tSe c
10
!
6
10
7
10
10
8
10
10
9
12
33
10
48
10
38
More Than
19
10
Computer
Years
More Than
24
10
Computer
Years
More Than
18
10
Computer
Years
More Than
23
10
Compute:r
Years
More Than
17
10
Computer
Years
More ·Than
22
10
Computer
Years
More Than
32
10
Computer
Years
More Than
16
10
Computer
Years
More Than
21
10
Computer
Years
More Than
31
10
Computer
Years
More Than
13
10
Computer
Years
More Than
18
10
Computer
Years
More Than
28
10
Computer
Years
More Than
1(,34
Computer
Years
..
More Than
33
10
Computer
Years
*The .computer speed is presented under the qui te favorab Ie assumption
that a single computer operation produces a result which may actually
require a software subroutine, advanced hardware or at least more
than one instruction.
152
The table demonstrates that consideration of this many combinations
requires too much time for even the fastest computers extant or projec.ted for the time frame under consideration, 1980 to 1985..
None-
theless, the computer can be used as an assistant with respect to
the· analysis of comprehensive or, at least, representative presentations.
The computer with certain decision rules may reduce the cate-
gories to be examined and, if an on-line terminal is used, the analyst can rely on his judgment and intuition to reduce the number of
combinations presented and examined.
It should be noted that such techniques as computer simulation/
gaming and the use of interindustry input/output analysis can be
quite useful in attempting to evaluate the interaction bet'Ween and
among future impacts in a technological assessment.
COMPUTER FORECASTS/PROJECTIONS AND FUTURE IMPACT AREAS
With the foregoing discussion as a background, 'We may now
discuss the specific task of the computer technological assessment,
forecasting and the future impact evaluation problems.
Appendix III,
Data Base of Forecasts Pertaining to Development of Computer Technology:
Present--Year 2000, illustrates some of the
this computer pilot study.
~nformation
gathered for
In Part A of Appendix III,. a number of
predictions 'Which have appeared in the literature pertaining to
future characteristics, applications and impacts of computers are
stated.
Exhibit 33(63) illustrates some of the projections made in
a study 'Which used a form of the Delphi Technique.
Part B of
Appendix III lists a number of events extracted from A Fifteen
Year Forecast of Information-Processing Technology, January 1969,
George B. Bernstein. (64)
153
EXHIBIT 33
COMPUTERS AND THE FUTURE
The horizontal barsindi~ate th~ ihterqUa~tiie rang'e (where
50% of the responses lay). The vertical bar indicates the median
estimate. The last two events had upper, quartiles, falling later
than the year 2000.
1)
Direction of large urban traffic flow by computer.
2)
Monitoring of' patients in major hospitals'by'computer.
3)
Widespread
4)
Computer controlled cOl1Ul1ercial airplanes including
take offs and landings
5)
Pocket size computers (" a dvanced slide rules" with
la rge memory).
6)
Recording of scientific and other advances so that constantly updated statu~ ii maintained in centtal files.
7)
Computer as diagnostician (giving reliable results).
8)
Policing of individual vehicles by combined radar'
detection and computer record of violations (license
number, excessive speed, etc.).
9)
Majority of doctors having a terminal for consultation.
10)
11)
us~
n
of Computer Aided Instructioh in schools.
..
...
50% reduction of labor force in major industries because of automation.
Recording of all income by majority of employers on
computer' tetminals' and automatic transfer of this information to various tax authorities.
12)
Instruction at home through computers.
13)
Obsolescence of 'book libraries as known today for
general factual information.
14)
Wid espread use of automobile autopilots.
15)
Computers as common as telephone ot television in
private homes.
...
...
1970
Source: "What Computers ~Iay Do Tomorrow, II The Futurist, Hor1d
Future Society, Washington, D. C.,, o.ctober 1969, p~
154
1980
1990
2000
Exhibit 34 illustrates the format of this information (Appendix
III - Part B).
Associated with each event are indications with
respect to desirability, feasibility, importance, and expected time
of occurrence.
In the column headed "Goal" is an entry showing
whether the event is too minor to be considered a goal (N/A), or
whether it is a short-, medium-, or long-range goal (S, M, L).
The
entries for "Desirability" and "Feasibility" are on an increasing
scale from 1 to 9.
Under "Timing" the vertices of a triangle
indicate when the event would have an estimated probability of
occuring of 0.2, 0.5, and 0.9.
This report is a result of a tech-
nological forecasting project which used a modified Delphi Technique
called SEER.
Round 1 of that project supplied a preliminary data
base of expected future events.
Round 2 refined, extended, and
structured that data bank to increase its value for planning and
analysis.
A group of over 45 outstanding individuals in the field
of information processing, including representatives from the
Federal Government, industry, and the academic world participated
in Round 2.
From the various forecasts of computer impacts in the literature
the following observations are made:
(a)
Many of the forecasts have no date associated with them
and one might wonder whether the comments are with
respect to the present, near future, or 20 or 100
years from now.
(b)
There are conflicts or apparent conflicts in the various
forecasts. For example, one forecast might indicate
that an event such as large urban traffic flow will be
computer-controlled by the mid-1970's. And in
contrast, another forecast might indicate that this
event would come to fruition but not until the mid1980's.
(c)
In addition, there are many vague statements where the
context of the projections is not given. This includes
155
EXHIBIT 34
COMPUTER ORGANIZATION
>-
I-
::i
m
EVENT
...J
«
0
(!)
1-'
V1
(j\
«
c::
>I::::i
CD
en
en«
Cl
u.
w
m.
Special functions within a computer will be implemented in micrologic so that
programming will be simplified and maximum efficiency obtained. The micrologic
will make use of mUltiple levels of internal storage, read-only memory, associative
memories and yet-to-be developed memory techniques. Phase 1 of this development
is here. Phase 2 will see "special purpose" computers (e.g., payroll computer,
production control computer, FORTRAN computer) available utilizing completely
cornmon hardware.
M
8
5
n.
Computer aided logic design will enable the system designer to formulate, evaluate
and optimize his proposed design without going through the "breadboard" stage.
S
6
4
o.
Parallel organized computers will offer several orders of magnitude speed advantage
over conventional computers. This speed advantage will be used to investigate
problems too large for conventional computers, in the areas of simulation, automation, hydrodynamics, signal processing, fluid mechanics (weather forecasting),
plasma (with applications to the designs of devices for controlled thermonuclear
reactions), and a factor of at least 100 compared to the fastest conventional
machines presently available. ILLIAC IV represents the first of such systems.
ILLIAC IV is scheduled to be operating by mid-1970. Other design philosophies
should be thoroughly investigated.
S
8
8
Source:
George B. Bernstein, A Fifteen-Year Forecast of Information-
Processing
Techno~,
AD681--752, Naval Supply Systems Command,
Washington, D. C., January 20, 1969, p. 92
TIMING
w
72
Y
68
70
78
~
70
~
72
75
72
problems of definition (semantic problems) and quantification. For example, if an industry or a system is
projected to be controlled by computers by a certain
date, does this mean 10 percent of this type of system or
plant will be computer-controlled, or doe~ it mean
50 percent, or perhaps the largest 30 percent of the plants?
(d)
There also are problems of uncertainty which frequently
are not alluded to at all in forecasts. When a fo·recast is made does this mean that the individual making
the projection feels that the probability is overwhelming
that such an event would occur or is he simply saying
that the chances are better than fifty-fifty?
(e)
When a date is given, is it the date at which the majority of such applications will use the computer in some
manner, or the first feasible date, or is this the date
at which some projections will almost certainly come to
fruition? Is a particular date the mean time that someone suggests the events will occur with some sort of
uncertainty before and after, or is it the latest potential date deemed reasonable?
Some of the differences or conflicts in forecasts
ar~
quite
real and represent strong differences of opinions among individuals
with respect to the technology application.
On the other hand, a
number of the differences are more apparent than real and can be
explained when the semantic problems are solved and when more of the
details of some of the questions mentioned above are answered.
Another question which arises is the value judgments that are
made with respect to impacts.
This is certainly a question of both
background and vested interests.
There are and will be conflicts
among various groups with respect to alleged computer impacts (e.g.,
the differences of opinion between the data processing and communications industries with respect to the entire issue of computers and
.
.
) (65)
communl.catl.ons.
Another illustration might be the problem
of computer control and automation.
On the one hand, it is desir-
able to have more efficient industry in order to improve the United
States' overall economic situation.
But on the other hand, if this
advanced automation, which produces the efficient industries that
157
compete with foreign manufacturers,
emplQyment~
al~o
produces widespread un-
then this is a major economic problem for the country.
The general view taken in this study
~s
that the overall good of
the nation, with due respect to minority groups is the major objective in solving some of these conflicts.
In analyzing some of the projected events which have appeared
in the literature, the difference between projected event and
directed research towards a specific goal must be recognized.
In
Exhibit 34, Event "m," it is stated that "Special functions within
a computer will be implemented in micrologic so that programming
will be simplified and maximum efficiency obtained.
The micrologic
will make use of multiple levels of internal storage, read-only
memory, associative memories and yet-to-be developed memory techniques.
Phase 1 of this development is here.
Phase 2 will see
'~pecial
purpose' computers (e.g., payroll computers, production control
compu.ters.,. FORTRAN computer) available utilizing completely common
hardware."
According to the exhibit this event will probably take
place by the latter half of the 1970's and it is considered rather
desirable and at least fairly feasible.
However, many so-called
software functions, by todays standards, probably should be in more
of a hardware form.
This would include some of the present and
prospective security/privacy software operations and user-oriented
software.
When such a goal is considered as desirable, and addi-
tional actions, such as allocating resources for R&D, are focused
on this objective, then the occurrence of the event becomes more
probable.
Feasibility and desirability become more measurable, if
one uses the amount of resources invested in attempting to obtain
the goal as a measure.
158
Applying the technology assessment methodology being developed
in this project
include~
integrating projections which are made in
varying depth, some with significant support, others with perhaps ,a
single expert's opinion.
The methodology used is essentially first
to look for general consistep.cy among knowledgeable forecasters who
themselves may- be
usi~g quantitativ~
means such as mUltiple re,gres-
sion analysis or trend extrapolation as inputs to their forecasts.
Second, examine th,e.data bank with respect ,·to specific relevant
events and their reasonableness.
For exaIllple, the increase in
speed of computers might be checked against the work of Graham as
represented. in The Impact of Future 'Developments' in Computer Technology.
(66)
In order that continued progress be made within the computer
field there must be exogenous forces impacting in such a manner that
the necessary research, development, testing, production, and implementation are continued at a healthy pace.
In order to judge the
effect of such forces one must examine the catalysts and requirements
of the last decade or more
with respect to computers, project these
elements, and then come to rational conclusions.
Some of the basic
research and development leading to increased performance (speed and
size) was promoted by the AEC and the intelligence and defense communities. ' A considerable amount of the research and development leading
to decreased size, decreased weight,
increas~d
reliability, and
ruggedness was promoted by the missile and space programs.
The
increase in performance and reliability and the interaction of
communications with computers was sponsored to a significant 'measure
by military funding.
In addition, the competitive force of the open
market place has' provided impetus for commercial machines.
In the future, the intelligence, command and control, and communications communities will have a continuing need for improved systems;
159
the missile and space programs, although modified somewhat recently,
will continue to support advanced computer techniq:ues.. . (Indeed-,. if
computers replace certain functions for an extensive unmanned, rather_
than manned sp'ace program, there should be even more emphasis' on
advanced computer development.)
The AEC will continue to use large
computer systems to perform sophisticated simulation and run mathematical models.
In the commercial market place there will be an
increasing requirement for computer-based information networks
because of the following commerical, economic, and social forces;
(a)
need. for speedy information in order to survive
(b)
need to stay competitive
(c)
need to avoid being overwhelmed by the information
and paper "explosion"
(d)
intellectual amplification
In order that the various national programs, especially those
oriented towards our internal problems, can be analyzed from a costl
benefit poi-nt of view, significant amounts of data must be gathered,
analyzed, sorted,. disseminated, and displayed in a timely and reliable
manner.
Integrating all those factors, one can make a strong affirmat.ive
projection regarding the development of computer-based information
networks as described in Chapter I.
However, no matter what technique is used it must be remembered
that the resources for not only this pilot study, but even for longer
investigations are finite and constrained.
It is, therefore, strongly
reconnnended that technological assessment studies set up a feedback
process for reassessing the technology.
This will permit the dynamic
nature of all the impacts including economical, political, societal,
environmental, managemental, etc., to be integrated in a system in a
160
manner similar to Forres ter "s work in Industrial Dynamics and Urban
DYnamics.
Such a feedback system would help to evaluate whatever
method was used for projections and forecasts as well as assist in
structuring the overall problem for the decision maker.
161
.CHAPTER VIII
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
From the study described herein, various conclusions and
recommendations may be stated.
It should be pointed out, however,
that the conclusions and recommendations are somewhat general and
that the projections represent impact directions and performance
envelopes rather than specific numbers.
This is mainly due to the
qualitative and approximate nature of the analysis, the fact that
this was only a six man-month study, and to the caveats mentioned in
the Foreword.
CONCLUSIONS
Although there is uncertainty due to the conditions described
above, and many of the statements must reflect judgments rather than
detailed analysis, the following conclusions are made:
(a)
During the research and analysis performed for this study,
it was soon realized that, although there are many
individual impact forecasts for the technology, it would
be quite presumptuous to state some of these predictions
and speculations, then proceed to use them as the basis
for positive-sounding or definitive statements about the
future including a final impact forecast. This conclusion
was reached through the analysis of the literature and
through interaction and discussions with reviewers. On
the other hand, there is sufficient evidence from this
preliminary analysis to warrant the conclusion that a plan
for organizing action options including a research, development and monitoring program and legislation and educational
programs should be devised at the earliest time feasible.
(b)
Computers probably have had as great an impact on our
society as any other technical innovation of the past
quarter century. In the future, computers and communications will have an even more salient impact on our society
and in a major way will affect such areas as economics (one
projection from the literature is a market of $260 billion
162
cumulative 1970-80), values, goals, and priorities, the
social issues; and institutional, political, legal and
demographic areas. The importance of the interaction of
computers and communications forming networks is further
illustrated by the following projections which were
referenced in this report: an increase by a factor of 200
in the total number of computers coupled with communications
in the decade of the 1970s; and that by 1974 between one
and two million terminals will be linked to computers.
(c)
The impact of societal conditions upon computer technology
and its advancement produces a set of constraints. In
many cases, these impacts will operate in both directions
in an iterative manner, i.e., a particular societal
condition may impede or accelerate the growth of technology
and its application, and then in turn, be impacted upon by
the innovative technology. This can produce a highly
dynamic situation which will modify any initially rather
static conditions. It is certainly not always intuitively
obvious what the "steady-state" condition will be.
(d)
The key to the technology assessment of computers is the
realization that the computer is essentially the "forcing
function" or "dynamo" that drives the computer-based network,
and that it is the information and its analysis which are of
fundamental importance for policy-making and implementation;
and use by the medical, legal and educational professions.
This means that the projected advances in computerscommunications will present major innovative tools for
society but that the measure of the computer impact will
really be the changed nature of performance,in the cost/
benefit sense, for the various professions, and the changed
nature of the life style and quality of life of the
individual citizens. This change would present at least
some measure of the impact of the security/privacy issue.
It should also be pointed out that the impacts noted here
are a representative set from a much larger list of impacts,
both good and bad.
(e)
The projected advances in the technologies will permit
systems that w'ill be capable of handling up to tens of
thousands of on-line devices, depending upon the overall
systems design and the function of individual on-line
elements. By 1980-85 there should also be significant
advances in computer program systems dedicated to particular
professions such as law, medicine, education and policy
analysis. The advances in computers and communications
163
projected for the 1980-85 time-frame will also permit the
design and efficient implementation of distributed computerbased information networks and data banks. As a result of
all the~e_ projected advances, a Significant increase in the
quality and quantity of health service, education and administration of justice per resource expended should be possible.
On the other hand, if sufficient atterition to problems such
as security and privacy is not forthcoming, then these same
advances can potentially change the character of our life
style and the quality of life in a very profound and unfavorable manner.
(f)
Even with extremely powerful computing systems, it is still
very difficult to perform ~omprehensive analyses when one is
considering a. technology such as computers, which has maj or
interacting impacts upon virtually all of the various societal
conditions. The total number of combinations of possible
interactions becomes too astronomically large for even comprehensive quantitatiye analysis. Probably the best approach
would include analysis of statistically random representative
samples of interactions. The computer can certainly be of
major assistance in this latter task. If the analyst has an
on-line terminal, then he can use his judgment, intuition,
and education to assist in limiting the number of choices
and in changing the direction of a specific investigation of
these interactions. This man-machine combination should be
the optimum approach in attacking such problems.
RECOMMENDATIONS
Although no one can predict the details with complete accuracy,
there really can be very little doubt that computer technology will
continue to have a growing impact on many aspects of our society.
For
this reason it seems imperative that national policy be formulated and
implemented to guide the development and control the impacts of computer
technology in directions most beneficial to our society.
In view of
this, the following recommendations are made:
(a)
A nucleus planning and analysis group should be formed on a
permanent basis for the technological assessment of computers
and their variety of complex impacts. This group would
be the focal point and pivotal element for a continuing
research, development and monitoring program in this area.
164
It would conduct and integrate the planning and analysis of
specific long-range programs which would be necessary before
more detailed definitive statements on computers-communications
technology and impacts can be supported. This is true because
the technology assessment of computers is not a one-time process, but takes considerable time and effort to produce an
organized, coordinated on-going program. There are many
individual efforts today, and some of the items and other
recommendations that follow may already be under investigation
by appropriate agencies of the government, but there is a
significant need for the ordering of priorities which is an
extremely difficult problem and can only be rationally
attempted through the "systems approach" rather than any
piecemeal effort. The allocation of resources for these
various efforts again should be a coordinated, well-planned
and implemented program. Further, only a sustained technological assessment program for computers-communications could
collect and analyze the large volumes of relevant information
in this highly dynamic field. Finally, it should be pointed
out that legislative programs, large educational programs,
large-scale experiments, and substantial R&D efforts are
all long-term endeavors and, for real, substantial, coordinated
results, a permanent organization is requi'red. Many
government organizations will probably be involved in
this effort. Some of the additional tasks which should be
performed under the guidance and direction of this group
are listed in the other recommendations.
(b)
Some of the classified military areas should be examined
with appropriate security safeguards. The reasons for
this recommendation are: to complete the picture of
current and projected state of the art; to obtain any
additional spillovers. that might be useful in the security/
privacy area; and to obtain a high level objective review
of the impacts of the advanced developments in computerscommunications including potential problem areas such as
the complete computer program debugging problem of the
ABM.
165
(c)
An in-depth investigation of the computer's impact on
employment should be performed. This investigation would
include a monitoring system for the employment-unemployment
situation and automation. On the one hand, some forecasts
indicate that between one and two million workers will be
employed in the. computer-information industry by approximately 1975; on the other hand, other projections indicate
that in the decade of the 1980's, significant automation
may reduce the labor force in present industry by 50 percent and, in addition, some forecast automation impacting
upon the computer industry itself with automatic devices
replacing certain data collection and data input jobs.
Since the situation is far from clear, there is a need
for such a monitoring system which would enable policy
analysis and decision-making as part of the necessary anticipatory planning which would be relevant to the situation. Two of the organizations that historically have
been concerned with these matters are the Labor and
Commerce Departments.
(d)
Solutions, both technical and legal, must be found and
implemented to lessen the problems of security and privacy of computer-based information systems, networks, and
data banks in order that overall policy may be formulated
soon. The security/privacy problem can be controlled
adequately if proper legislation and policy decisions are
implemented and the problem is considered in the initial
planning stages of a computer-based system. Solutions
would include: encryption, decoupling of the general
users such as doctors or educators from the inner workings
of the system, and relevant investigation of the various
system personnel. In addition, some of the specific
legislation (to require holders of data banks to inform
citizens of information held and permit the citizens to
examine and correct information; to authorize the investigation of sensitive personnel; and permit injured individuals to redress their grievances through court action
with appropriate penalties attached) should be enacted.
Specific consideration should be given to forming what
might be called "Devil's Advocate" or "Break-In" teams
which would consist of knowledgeable individuals who
would deliberately attempt to break the system's security and protection provisions, in order to substantially
test and certify a system. These groups would be relatively independent and certainly would be rewarded for
166
success in their endeavors. Feedback information from
these groups would be used to further tighten security
and protect the system, as well as assist in decisions
relevant to the certification of a system.
In order to assist in dispersing the semantic fog around
the area of security and privacy, the terms security
(really referring to defense information), privacy (the
right of an individual to keep certain information to
himself)"confidentiality (the protection of privileged
communication by both law and policy--this is not to be
confused with the defense security classification of confidential), and protection from destruction (by such means
as bombing, burning, or electro-magnetic destruction
through erasure, etc.) should be clearly defined and analyzed. Where there is a body of law cases/precedents, etc.,
this should be gathered in data banks and clearly presented to both system users and implementers.
(e)
The copyright and patent problems for computer-based information systems should be the subject of further investigations--both legal and technical. This is necessary to
further the exchange and reproduction of information by
the most modern computer-based techniques while simultaneously giving credit and remuneration to the creative
efforts of authors and inventors. Some of this effort
may be currently underway, in which case it could be
reviewed and integrated into the overall program.
(f)
Large-scale experiments in application of computers should
be performed through the interaction of information technology organizationsiagencies and mission-oriented
organizations/agencies.
These experiments should produce
relevent information in regard to the direction of further
developments in computer technology both from the point
of view of policy and science. In addition, such experiments would demonstrate the usefulness of computerscommunications technology in the many other areas of our
167
society. Data from these experiments should be extremely
fruitful for the program planning and budgeting systems,
and perhaps for future legislation.
(g)
A plan for a strong educational program for both the
applications of computers and their fundamental concepts
for all age groups should be devised. Such a strong
educational program would assist in expediting applications that will benefit our entire society, and a better
informed citizenry will be in a much better position to
protect their rights in regard to such issues as security/
privacy.
(h)
The specific organizational and policy implementation
problems of the control and guidance of computer-based
impacts should be addressed. What has sometimes been
referred to as the "computer problem" is not really a
single problem but a spectrum of present and potential
problems and present and potential opportunities for major
benefits.
(i)
A large-scale directed R&D program should be established.
The following list includes many of the objectives of
such a program. The desired advances indicated in this
list are from the point of view of service to the user or
consumer rather than particular hardware advances which
may be part of on-going R&D effort of the various computer vendors. Breakthroughs and directed research and
development which would be instrumental for- achieving
effective lIJan-machine interaction and ttinformation networks" are:
(1)
voice input, at least to a limited extent and
at nonprohibitive cost to the user
(2)
relatively inexpensive sophisticated terminals/
minicomputers
168
(3)
improved capability for verification and
subsequent official certification of software
performance (This research and analysis is
directed to attacking the problem of "debugging completely", or at least with some ac
acceptable certification, large complex software systems)
(4)
increased acceptance on the psychological
and political level of the most innovative
technology
(5)
decrease in the cost of software development
(6)
decrease in the cost of reliable, multiplefont optical character readers
(7)
practical and economically viable solution
to the security/privacy problem
(8)
advances in user-oriented modeling/simulation and basic understanding of some of
the relationships in the complex "real
world"
(9)
performance standards and measures for hardware and software
(10)
advances in methods for educating programmers
for performance on advanced systems
169
(11) progress towards higher efficiency in the implementation of the highest level user-oriented computer
languages/systems (These languages/systems are close
to the non-professional programmer user and, although simple to use, may cause significant complexityand possible inefficiencies from the point
of view of the internal'system.)
(j)
Both a computer-based network or subnetwork and a major
data bank should be implemented for the purposes of
technological assessment in general and specifically for
the purpose of a technological assessment of computerscommunications and their complex impacts. In order tu
expedite the formation of a data bank, it could be
initially in manual form with the conversion to computerized form at the earliest feasible time. Some of the
components of such a network could be implemented almost
immediately while others would come to fruition during
the next decade. Such a computer-based assistance for
technological assessment could reduce the time for information retrieval by perhaps'a factor of two and in some
cases by two orders of magnitude. Since technological
assessment studies may very well be performed under tremendous time stress because of imminent policy decisions,
this should be a major benefit. The inclusion of a
computer-assisted text editing system should reduce the
time requirements for the production of interim or draft
reports and their review and evaluation. The computerscommunications system could perhaps also then be used for
mathematical modeling, interindustry input/output analysis, multiple regression ,analysis, dynamic feedback
models perhaps using DYNAMO, and such techniques as the
on-line Delphi method. There is a significant requirement for a major data bank with respect to technological
assessment which should contain case histories, general
background, and results of analyses in order to facilitate inclusion of technological assessment in the policy
analysis and decision-making processes. The data bank
should also include appropriate information with respect
to our national environment broken down into various
categories including economical, societal, environmental,
political, etc. This information would be quantified
wherever feasible, indexed and abstracted as appropriate,
and would include projections and forecasts and their
associated uncertainties. A specific directed Delphi
type analysis should be performed to produce additional
information and update present data. As soon as feasible,
170
this technique and analysis should be implemented with an
on-line system. This system would be useful for both technology assessment in general and specifically for the technology assessment of computers.
(k)
There should be further research and analysis to refine
methodology for cost-performance (cost-effectiveness and
cost-benefits) analysis for the complex computer network systems
under consideration. This would include attempts to give
more precise answers to such questions as the following:
(1)
When to compute locally versus transmitting information on communications networks to a more central
location.
(2)
When to use electro-magnetic communications versus
the transportation system: automobile, plane, mail
service, etc.
(3)
What an "optimum" or at least "near optimum" configuration might be when examined in the cost benefit/
effectiveness/performance sense, and especially
considering customers' or consumers' demands and
requirements.
This research and analysis would be an action option
directed to the problem of faulty cost-benefit/performance
projections, which in the past have resulted in scandalous
cost overruns and lack of performance in the eyes of the
user (customer or consumer).
Much adverse publicity
which has damaged the image of computer-based systems
has been caused by this problem.
171
APPENDIX I
GLOSSARY AND LIST OF ACRONYMS
The relatively few professionals already working in the
technology assessment field seem to agree that because the process
of applying technology in our pluralistic society is so widely
diffused, it is important that knowledge about the mechanics of
making a technology assessment be widely disseminated.
Therefore,
this report is intended for a widely diverse group of readers.
They include:
(a)
high level government personnel (management and
technical)
(b)
similar level personnel in state and local governments,
business corporations, and various public service
organizations
(c)
journalists and writers associated with scientific
publications -- Scientific American, Science, etc.;
science editors for the New York Times, Christian
Science Monitor, Fortune, etc.
(d)
specialists in various disciplines (engineers,
scientists, economists, sociologists, etc.) who have
little prior acquaintance with the technology
assessment movement and who have had only peripheral
contact with the "systems" approach
(e)
college level students studying environmental
problems
(f)
concerned citizens who are interested in learning more
about the analytical process of relating technology to
other sectors of society
The main body of this report on the Computer Pilot Study was
written with the above audience in mind; voluminous, supporting,
173
technical details were relegated to appendices.
Nonetheless, it
was found to be virtually impossible to exclude completely from
the text some of the jargon of the computer field.
It seems to
be one of the facts of life in the environment of research and
development of a new technology that previously existing vocabularies are found to be inadequate for concise and accurate communication of ideas.
New terminology and special meanings for old
words are established.
In time, of course, much of the jargon is
absorbed by that part of the language which enjoys general usage
by many segments of the population (e.g., nuclear reactor).
However, at this point in time much of the terminology associated
with computers is understood only by specialists in the field.
Indeed, there is not universal agreement among professionals in the
field as to the meaning of some of the terms.
A glossary and list
of acronyms has been included, therefore, to facilitate common
understanding of the ideas expressed in this report.
Most of the
definitions were taken from American National Standard Vocabulary
for Information Processing. (67)
The definitions in this Appendix
which are preceded by an asterisk are these terms.
The symbol
"(SCI)" at the beginning of a definition is used to identify
definitions that have been discussed and agreed upon at meetings
of the International Organization for Standardization Technical
Committee 97/Subcommittee 1.
This material is reproduced from American National Standard
Vocabulary for Information Processing, ANSI X3.l2-l970, copyright
1970, copies of which may be purchased from the American National
Standards Institute at 1430 Broadway, New York, New York 10018.
174
GLOSSARY
*analog: (SCI) Pertaining to representation by means of continuously
variable physical quantities.
(Contrast with "digital".)
*analog computer: (1) (SCI) A computer in which analog representation of data is mainly used.
(2) A computer that operates on analog
data by performing physical processes on these data.
(Contrast with
"digital computer".)
*automation: The investigation, design, development, and application of methods of rendering processes automatic, self-moving, or
self-controlling.
*binary: (1) Pertaining to a characteristic or property involving
a selection, choice, or condition in which there are two possibilities.
(2) Pertaining to the number representation system with a
radix of two.
*binary digit: In binary notation, either of the characters, 0 or 1.
Abbreviated bit.
*binary notation: Fixed radix notation where the radix is two. For
example, in binary notation the numeral 110.01 represents the
number 1 x 2 squared plus 1 x 2 to the first power plus 1 x 2 to
the minus 2 power, that is, six and a quarter.
*bit:
A binary digit.
*bit string: A string of binary digits in which the position of
each binary digit is considered as an independent unit.
*central processing unit:
(SCI) A unit of a computer that includes
the circuits controlling the interpretation and execution of instructions. Synonymous with main frame. Abbreviated CPU.
*computer: (SCI) A data processor that can perform substantial
computation, including numerous arithmetic or logic operations,
without intervention by a human operator during the run.
175
computer-based information processing system: Pertaining to a
system that includes both information collection, storing and dissemination; and computation, simulation and modeling based upon appropriate data.
computer-based information network: A system including such features
as time-sharing; on-line mUltiple access; real-time, man-machine
interaction; remote access; computer networks; networks of computers;
and data banks, both private and public. (See individual definitions
of terms.)
computer network: Pertaining to a computer with various remote
terminals, devices, and the associated communication circuits.
*computer word: A sequence of bits or characters treated as a unit
and capable of being stored in one computer location. (Synonymous
with "machine word".)
*cybernetics: (SCI) That branch of learning which brings together
theories and studies on communication and control in living
organisms and machines.
*data bank: A comprehensive collection of libraries of data. For
example, one line of an invoice may form an item, a complete
invoice may form a record, a complete set of such records may form
a file, the collection of inventory control files may form a
library, and the libraries used by an organization are known as
its data bank.
data base:
(See "data bank".)
*digit: A symbol that represents one of the non-negative integers
smaller than the radix. For example, in decimal notation, a
digit is one of the characters from 0 to 9. (Synonymous with
"numeric character".)
*digital: (1) (SCI) Pertaining to data in the form of digits.
(2) Contrast with analog.
*digital computer: (1) (SCI) A computer in which discrete representation of data is mainly used. (2) A computer that operates
on discrete data by performing arithmetic and logic processes on
these data. Contrast with analog computer.
176
display device:
tation of data.
Pertaining to a device that offers visual presen-
full application: This means that the technological innovation has
been accepted by a substantial number of potential users, perhaps
greater than 50% or maybe an even larger percentage. It also means
that some of the institutional barriers with respect to social,
political, psychological inertia have been overcome and that the
cost-effectiveness, reliability, and general operation~l performance
are in a fairly substantial state of advanced operational, useroriented development.
*general purpose computer:
(SCI) A computer that is designed to
handle a wide variety of problems.
*hardware: (SCI) Physical equipment, as opposed to the computer
program or method of use, e.g., mechanical, magnetic, electrical, or
electronic devices. Contrast with software.
*hybrid computer: (SCI) A computer for data processing using both
analog representation and discrete representation of data.
initial application: This means that the particular technological
advance or innovation is being used by at least a small percentage
of the potential market in an operational sense and that the technology is a step beyond the technological perfection stage. This
step beyond may be in terms of acceptance of the innovation as well
as the advances in technology "reliability".
*interleave: To arrange parts of one sequence of things or events
so that they alternate with parts of one or more other sequences
of things or events and so that each sequence retains its identity,
e.g., to organize storage into banks with independent busses so
that sequential data references may be overlapped in a given period
of time.
man-machine interaction: The interaction involved in the method of
utilizing a computer whereby the user, by means of an on-line
terminal/mini-computer, performs an input action which causes the
computer to perform- a sequence of operations and provide an output
to the user. The user then, depending on the output, can perform
another input action. The interaction continues in an iterative
symbiotic manner.
177
mini-computer (sophisticated terminal, intelligent terminal,
sophisticated electronic desk calculator): The capability of
this class of devices is a function of the time-frame under consideration, i.e., a mini-computer or sophisticated terminal of the 1980 to
1985 time-frame would be capable of performance of the order of
magnitude of medium to larger computers of the 1965 to 1970 time
frame. The prefix'mini is a relative term with respect to physical
size (volume), cost and performance relative to the state-of-the-art
of a particular time-frame. The device in question, whether called
mini-computer, sophisticated terminal or intelligent terminal, in
the 1980 to 1985 time-frame should be capable of the following:
internal stored program; ordinary arithmetic operations, probably
including floating point and elementary mathematical and statistical
calculations; performing a certain level of encryption when appropriate; control of fairly sophisticated input/output audio visual
displays, etc.; checking more sophisticated programs for at least
the more obvious compiler/language errors before the more sophisticated programs are sent to the central shared computer~based information processing network system.
network of computers: A network with the major nodes themselves
consisting of computers and ancillary equipment, interconnected by
appropriate data links.
on-line:
(1)' Pertaining to equipment or devices under direct control of the central processing unit. (2) Pertaining to a user's
ability to interact with a computer.
on-line multiple access: Pertaining to access to a computer by a
number of users in such a way as to interact with the computer,
that is, an input action by a user would cause the computer to
perform one or more operations and provide an output to the user,
who would then pr~vide another input to the computer. Usually the
computer is operated in a time-shared mode for this type of service.
(See "computer network".)
*real time:
cal process
computation
transpires,
guiding the
(1) Pertaining to the actual time during which a physitranspires.
(2) Pertaining to the performance of a
during the actual time that the related physical process
in order that results of the computation can be used in
physical process.
*remote access: Pertaining to communication with a data processing
facility by one or more stations that are distant from that facility.
178
*software:
associated
processing
diagrams.
(SCI) A set of computer programs, procedures, and possibly
documentation concerned with the operation of a data
system, e.g., compilers, library routines, manuals, circuit
Contrast with hardware.
sophisticated electronic desk calculator: A desk calculator capable
of operating from a stored program. (See "mini-computer".)
*special purpose computer:
(SCI) A computer that is designed to
handle a restricted class of problems.
technological perfection: This is considered to be somewhat similar
to "an initial operating capability". It essentially means that the
technology has been "perfected" well enough to be used in an initial
operational sense perhaps for prototype, proof-testing, pilot operation, and initial trials. It means that the reliability, maintainability and operational performance in a cost/benefit sense are all
reasonable but certainly far from "perfect", i.e., beyond the R&D
stage and entering into operation.
terminal (intelligent):
terminal (sophisticated):
*time sharing:
device.
(See "mini-computer".)
(See "mini-computer".)
Pertaining to the interleaved use of the time of a
time sharing: Participation in available computer time by multiple
users, via terminals. Characteristically, the response time is such
that the computer seems dedicated to each user.
*word:
(1) A character string or a bit string considered as an
entity.
(See "computer word".)
179
LIST OF ACRYONYMS
ACRONYM
DEFINITION
AEC
Atomic Energy Commission
AFIPS
American Federation of Information Processing Societies
AMA
American Medical Association
AMACUS
Automated Microfilm Aperture Card Updating System
ARPA
Advanced Research Project Agency
AT&T
American Telephone and Telegraph
BIS
Business Information System
CAl
Computer Aided Instruction
CATV
Community Antenna
CDC
Control Data Corporation
CIM
Computer Input Microfilm
COBOL
Common Business Oriented Language, a computer programming:
language
COCI
Communications-Oriented Computer Installations
COM
Computer Output Microfilm
COSATI
Committee on Science and Technological Information
CRT
Cathode Ray Tube
CSC
Computer Sciences Corporation
DoD
Department of Defense
DELPHI
Intuitive Forecasting Technique Developed by The RAND
TV~
Cable TV
Corporation
DYNAMO
A Software System including a Compiler and Language
for Continuous Models Developed for Industrial
Dynamics Simulations
EDP
Electronic Data Processing
FCC
Federal Communications Commission
FORTRAN
Formula Translator, a computer programming language
FOSDIC
Film-Optical Sensing Device for Input to Computer
180
LIST OF ACRONYMS (Concluded)
ACRONYM
'DEFINITION
GE
General Electric
GIGO
"garbage in, garbage out"
GNP
Gross National Product
GPSS
General Purpose Systems Simulator
MIRS
Micro Interactive Retrieval System
MIT
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
NASA
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
NBS
National Bureau of Standards
NEA
National Education Association
NCIC
National Crime Information Center
NMA
National Microfilm Association
OCR
Optical Character Reader
OEP
Office of Emergency Preparedness
ORSA
Operations Research Society of America
OST
Office of Science and Technology
OTP
Office of Telecommunications Policy
RCA
Radio Corporation of America
RD&M
Research, Development and Monitoring
RDT&E
Research, Development, Testing and Evaluation
SRI
Stanford Research Institute
SST
Supersonic Transport
TIMS
The Institute of Management Sciences
UCC
University Computing Corporation
181
APPENDIX II
A SAMPLE CATALOG OF COMPUTER APPLICATIONS
Part A is a selected sample from the IBM Submission to the
Federal Communications Commission.(68)
This indicates some of the
data processing applications in the next decade and illustrates
the estimated use of common carrier lines.
It should be noted
that:
(a)
Even when the majority of systems will not use common
carrier lines for a particular application that,
nonetheless, some of the systems ihcluding possible
important installations may very well use common
carrier lines.
(b)
Some of the cases where the majority of systems will
not use common carrier lines may, nonetheless, use
communications systems (dedicated, special-purpose,
in-house) for reasons of security/privacy and
economics. This IBM Submission might be summarized, in part
by the statistics shown in Exhibit 35.
Part B of this appendix consists of a selected sample from
the article, "Over 2000 Applications of Computers and Data
Processing,,,(69) and presents some indication of the breadth of
applications and impacts of computers.
This article contains more
than 2000 applications of computers and is not necessarily an
exhaustive or mutually exclusive list.
It can be summarized in part
by the statistics shown in Exhibit 36.
With respect to this selected sample catalog of computer
applications, the following points should be noted:
(a) Even though these lists are quite extensive, nonetheless,
the various groups, classes, and subclasses could themselves be divided into further lists of applications.
182
(b)
There are many additional U. s. Government ··classified
and unclassified applications. Indeed, the Federal
Government is the largest single user, of computers.
(c)
The submission by IBM to the FCC was made in 1968 and
there will be considerable expansion, especially with
respect to the interaction of computers and communications applications in the 1980 to 1985 time frame.
183
EXHIBIT 35
SUMMARY STATISTICS,. DATA PROCESSING APPLICATIONS*
IN THE NEXT DECADE SHOWING ESTIMATED USE OF COMMON CARRIER LINES
COMPUTER APPLICATION
CLASS
Majority will
not use Common
Carrier Lines
Majority will use
Common Carrier
Lines
NOT GENERALLY OPERATIONAL TODAY
Majority wUl
Majority will
use Co~mon
not use Common
Carrier LineS
Carrier Lines
TOTA~ lnJMBER OF
SUBCLASSES WlrHIN
EACH GLASS
6
6
0
3
15
Wholesale
5
0
1
2
8
Consumer and Package Goods
Field
4
1
4
0
9
Education
10
5
3
3
21
Life, Group & Health
Insurance
10
4
0
Property & Liability
Insurance
4
4
0
0
8
Savings Institutions
5
3
1
1
10
10
3
0
0
13
Retail
. Chain
f-I
ex>
.p-
OPERATIONAL TODAY
&
14
0
I
Investment & Securities
Brokerage
Commercial Banks
Manufacturing
Hospitals & Medicine
Newspapers, Printers &
Publishers
I
7
2
1
7
17
25
5
6
0
36
1
5
6
7
19
13
2
3
0
18
I
i
I
*
The
fi~ures
in the table indicate the number of subclasses within each major
app1~cation
class.
EXHIBIT 35 (Concluded)
SUMMARY STATISTICS - DATA PROCESSING APPLICATIONS*
IN THE NEXT DECADE SHOWING ESTIMATED USE OF COMMON CARRIER LINES
COMPUTER APPLICATION
CLASS
I
TOTAL NUMBER OF
SUBCL4SSES WITHIN
EACH CLASS
6
8
1
4
19
Telephone
5
6
1
6
18
12
7
2
0
21
State & Local Government
9
10
6
10
35
Agriculture
5
1
0
0
6
Airlines
7
5
6
9
27
Railroads
4
4
6
9
23
Motor Freight
7
7
5
3
2~
Federal Government
18
14
0
0
32
Garment & Apparel
Industry
10
0
2
0
12
Comp~nies
():)
1I1
NOT GENERALLY OPERATIONAL TODAY
Majority will
Majority will
use Common
not use Common
Carr:l,er Lines
Carrier Lines
Public Utilities
Petroleum & Industrial
enemical Processing
I--'
OPERATIONAL TODAY
Majority will use
Common Carrier
Lines
Majority will
no t use COIllI\lon
. Carrier Lines
*
The figures in the table indicate the number of subclasses within each major application
c~ass.
,EXHIBIT 36
SUMMARY STATISTICS OF OVER,
2000 APPLICATIONS OF COMPUTERS AND DATA PROCESSING
COMPUTER APPLICATION
CLASS
I.
IL.
BUSINESS AND MANUFACTURING IN GENERAL
190
1.
Office
114
2.
Plant and Production
76
BUSINESS -- SPECIFIC FIELDS
:
NO. OF SUBCLASSES OF
APPLICArIONS WITHIN
EACH GROUP
:'·942
1.
Advertising
13
2.
Automotive Industry
22
3.
Banking
39
4.
Educational and Institutional
52
5.
Farming
28
6.
Finance
38
7.
Government
8.
Hospitals
48
9.
Insurance
43
10.
Labor 'Unions
11
11.
Law
20
12.
Libraries
12
13.
Magazine and Periodical Publishing
16
14.
Mili tary
15.
Oil Industry
73
16.
Police
20
17.
Public Utilities
53
18.
Publishing
9
19.
Religious Organizations
5
20.
Sports and Entertainment
137
6
186
59
EXHIBIT 36 (Continued)
SUMMARY STATISTICS OF OVER
2000 APPLICATIONS OF COMPUTERS AND DATA PROCESStNG
COMPUTER APPLICATION
CLASS
III.
SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING
NO. OF SUBCLASSES OF
APPLICATIONS WITHIN
EACH GROUP
793
1.
Aeronautics and Space Engineering
2.
Astronomy
16
3.
Biology
23
4.
Botany
3
5.
Chemical Engineering and
Chemistry
36
6.
Civil Engineering
82
7.
Economics
8.
Electrical Engineering
32
9.
Geology
13
111
8
10.
Geophysics
11.
Hydraulic Engineering
28
12.
Marine Engineering
32
13.
Mathematics
44
14.
Mechanical Engineering
34
15.
Medicine and Physiology
151
16.
Metallurgy
17.
Meteorology
22
18.
Military Engineering
31
19.
Naval Engineering
20.
Nuclear Engineering
17
21.
Oceanography
12
22.
Photography
8
23.
Physics
7
2
7
18
187
EXHIBIT 36 (Concluded)
SWMMARY STATISTICS OFOVER
2000 APPLICATI,ONS OF COMPUTERS AND DATA PROCESSING
, COMPUTER APPLICATION
CLASS
IV.
NO. OF SUBCLASSES OF
APPLICATIONS WITHIN
EACH GROUP
24.
Psychology
24
25.
Sociology
5
26.
Statistics
27
96
HUMANITIES
2
1.
Anthropology
2.
Archeology
3.
Art
9
4.
Games of Skill
8
5.
Genealogy
5
6.
Geography
4
7.
History
12
8.
Languages
14
9.
Literature
10
Music
15
10.
17
188
PART A:
A SAMPLE OF THE DATA PROCESSING APPLICATIONS IN THE NEXT
DECADE SHOWING ESTIMATED USE OF COMMON CARRIER LINES
Applications followed by an asterisk (*) are not generally
operational today, but are anticipated during the next decade.
Columns next to the applications provide
~stimates
of the use of
common carrier lines by the majority of systems performing each
application.
189
DATA PROCESSING APPLICATIONS IN THE NEXT DECADE
The Majority of Systems Will:
Not Use
Common
Carrier
Lines
Use
Common
Carrier
Lines
RETAIL:
Payroll
X
Gene ra 1 Ledger
X
Accounts Receivable
X
Order Entry & Processing
X
Order Entry to Warehouses*
X
Credit Authorization
X
Audit of Sales Transactions
X
Inventory Management
X
Purchase Order Control
X
Remote Purchasing*
X
Sales Reporting
X
Restaurant Data Collection
X
Management Information System
X
On-Line Sales Reporting*
X
Credit Bureau Reporting
X
EDUCATION:
Admissions
X
Registration
X
Student Fee Accounting
X
Housing Records
X
Testing
X
190
DATA
PROCESSI~G
APPLICATI9NS IN THE NEXT DECADE
The Majority of Systems Will:
Not Use
Common
Carrier
Lines
Use
Common
Carrier
Lines
EDUCATION (Cont.):
Placement Service
X
Alumni Records
X
Athletic Ticket Accounting Activities
X
Fiscal Accounting and Reporting
X
Personnel Records & Services
X
Maintenance & Operation Scheduling
X
Classroom Scheduling
X
Purchasing
X
Instructional Problem Solving
X
Test Processing*
X
Food Service (menu planning,
inventory control, purchasing, etc.)
X
Lab Equipment Accounting*
X
On-Line Experiment Control*
X
Computer-Assisted Instruction*
X
Interlibrary Loans*
X
Document Retrieva1*
X
COMMERCIAL BANKS:
Demand Deposit Accounting
X
Savings Accounting
X
Trust Accounting
X
Credit Card Accounting
X
Loan Accounting
X
191
DATA PROCESSING APPLICATIONS IN THE NEXT DECADE
The Majority of Systems Will:
Not Use
Common
Carrier
Lines
Use
Common
Carrier
Lilies
COMMERCIAL BANKS (Cont.):
Transit
x
General Ledger
X
Computer Services for Customers
X
Credi t Authoriza-tions*
X
Accoun t Ba lance Inquiry/C'
X
Bank Management System*
X
On-Line Customer Services*
X
On-Line Transaction Entry*
X
Mathematica.l Simulation of
Operations*
x
Integrated Accounting*
x
Electronic Check Clearing*
X
Customer Computer Services
X
HOSPITALS & MEDICINE:
Billing
X
Dietary Management*
X
Clinical Laboratory
Scheduling & Reports*
Radiology Treatment Calculations
X
*
X
Blood Bank Records
X
Shared Hospital Accounting System
X
Centralized Doctor Billing
X
Hospital Information Systems*
X
192
DATA PROCESSING APPLICATIONS IN THE NEXT DECADE
The Majority of Systems Will:
Not Use
Common
Carrier
Lines
Use
Common
Carrier
Lines
HOSPITALS & MEDICINE (Cont.):
Statistical & Mathematical Analysis
x
Medical Information Retrieva 1'!(
X
Instrument Signal Acquisition &
Analysis
X
Patient Monitoring*
X
Multiphasic Screening (computer
analysis of health examination
data)'!(
X
Computer-Aided Instruction*
X
Clinical Records System*
X-
Adverse Drug Reaction Reporting*
X
Administrative Control System*
X
Computer-Aided Diagnosis*
X
Regional Medical Information
System*
x
PUBLIC UTILITIES:
Customer Information System:
Billing
Accounts Receivable
Customer Inquiry
Credit & Collections
Service Order Entry
X
Materials Management System
X
X
X
X
X
General Accounting
X
Stockholder Records
X
193
DATA PROCESSING APPLICATIONS IN TIlE NEXT DECADE
The Majority of Sys terns Wi 11:
Not Use
Common
Carrier
Lines
Use
Common
Ca rrier
Lines
PUBLIC UTILITIES (Cont.):
Construction Management System
x
Facility Planning
X
Electric Load Flow Calculation
X
Short Circuit Study
X
Transient Stability Calculations
X
Los s F ormu la
X
Rate
X
Studies1~
'.
Substation Monitoring & Control*
X
Plant Management System*
.X
Distribution Management*
X
Economic Dispatch*
X
....
STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT:
."
Appropriation & Fund Accounting
X
Payroll
X
Vendor Performance Files
X
Purchase Order Writing
X
Budget Preparation & Management*
X
Program Budgeting*
X
Highway Management & Design
X
Transportation Planning
X
Traffic Data Acquisition
X
Highway Management Simulation*
X
194
.,
,
DATA PROCESSING APPLICATIONS IN THE NEXT DECADE
The Majority of Systems Will:
Not Use
Common
Carrier
Lines
Use
Common
Carrier
Lines
STATE & LOCAL
GOVERNMENT (Cont.):
On-Line Highway Management
Informa tion.....
X
Traffic Control*
X
Highway Engineering Computing
Service"'~
X
Driver's License Processing
X
Vehicle Registration Processing
X
Driver Performance Records
X
Fee Accounting
X
Driver Training & Retesting*
X
Vehicle Diagnosis & Inspection*
X
Accident Ana1ysis*
X
Parking Garage Control*
X
Statutory Retrieval
X
Legislative Bill Status & Indexing
X
Legislative Committee Scheduling*
X
Legislators' Information Retrieval
X
Judicial & Law Enforcement
Information Systems
X
Citation Processing
X
Police Resource Allocation*
X
Police Command & Control Systems*
X
Tax Billing & Allocation
X
195
DATA PROCESSING APPLICATIONS IN THE NEXT DECADE
The Majority of Systems Will:
Not Use
Common
Carrier
Lines
Use
Common
Carrier
Lines
STATE & LOCAL
GOVERNMENT (Cant.):
Accounting, Budget Preparation
X
Payroll & Personnel
X
Local Government Planning*
X
Pollution Control*
X
Court Scheduling*
X
AIRLINES:
Crew Record Maintenance
X
Fuel & Oil Consumption Analysis
X
Jet Flight Planning
X
Aircraft Performance Analysis
X
Inventory Control
X
Labor & Material Reporting
X
Reservations Systems
X
Passenger Sales Analysis
X
CAB Statistical Reporting
X
Revenue Accounting
X
Service Controls
X
Purchasing
X
Weight/Balance Optimization*
X
Aircraft Scheduling*
X
Network Ana1ysis*
X
Maintenance Control--Air Frame*
X
196
DATA PROCESSING APPLICATIONS IN THE NEXT DECADE
The Majority of Systems Will:
Not Use
Common
Carrier
Lines
Use
Common
Carrier
Lines
AIRLINES (Cant.):
Maintenance Control--Line
Maintenance*
x
In-Flight Log Analysis*
X
Automated Cargo Control*
X
In-Flight Function Control*
X
Weather Prediction*
X
Flight Training Simulations*
X
Navigation Monitoring*
X
In-Flight Maintenance Monitoring*
X
Failure Prediction*
X
Aircraft Ground Checkout*
X
Corporate Information Systems*
X
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT:
Design Automation
X
Simulation
X
Linear Programming
X
Map Making
X
Water & Air Pollution Analysis
X
Loan Accounting
X
Insurance Processing & Accounting
X
Negotiable Instrument Processing
X
Public Assistance Administration
X
Hospital Administration
X
197
DATA PROCESSING APPLICATIONS IN THE NEXT DECADE
The Majority of Systems Will:
Not Use
Common
Carrier
Lines
Use
Common
Carrier
Lines
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT (Cont.):
Medical Research
X
FDIC Accounting
X
Regulatory Angencies-Statistical Analyses
X
Personnel Records
X
Executive Profiles
X
Student Accounting
X
Budgeting
X
Appropriation Accounting
X
Payroll
X
Military Operations Management
X
Military Games
X
Guidance (missiles, aircraft,
subsurface)
X
Project Planning and Scheduling
X
Transportation Planning & Control
X
Property Management
X
Maintenance, Overhaul,
Repair Scheduling
X
Supply & Inventory Control
X
Surplus Disposal Processing
X
Material Storage &
Transportation Processing
X
198
DATA PROCESSING APPLICATIONS IN THE NEXT DECADE
The Majority of Systems Will:
Not Use
Common
Carrier
Lines
Use
Common
Carrier
Lines
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT (Cant.):
Cataloging Inventories
X
Weather Forecasting
X
Construction Estimates
X
199
PART B:
I.
A SAMPLE EXTRACT FROM THE OVER 2000 APPLICATIONS OF
COMPUTERS AND DATA PROCESSING
BUSINESS AND MANUFACWRING
IN GENERAl.,
1.
Office
Absenteeism reports
Accounts receivable: posting, rebilling
Advertising effectiveness: analysis, data handling
Air-Tube circuit
Attendance records: analysis, and evaluation
Billing and invoicing
Budgeting
Capital investment analysis
Catalog indexing
Charitable contribution
Consumer credit verification
Contract lists
Correspondence: personalized letters to delinquent accounts
Cost accounting, analysis
Data gathering from multiple locations
Depreciation calculations
Directory advertising calculations
Dispatching
Equipment registers
Expenses: analysis, prompt reports
File maintenance
Filing operations, single and multiple
Financial statements
Fixed assets accounting
Forecasting
General ledgers: operation
Hiring: analysis
Information retrieval
Insurance records and schedules
Inventory control
Inventory systems: simulation
Job placement: matching men with jobs
Labor cost determinations
Lease and ren~al accounting
Libraries: classification, records
200
APPLICATIONS OF COMPUTERS
Linear programming
Mailing list operations: addressing mail, bundling by address
groups, IIpersonalized ll computer letters, updating and
maintaining, zip code sequencing
Management: reports using the exception principle and others,
games, simulation, statistics analysis, strategy analysis
Manhour records and analysis
Market research: studies
Message switching
Operations research applications
Optical character recognition
Orders: acknowledgement, analysis, processing, shipping
Overhead cost allocation
Overtime reports
Payroll: changes for general increases, computation and
payment, overtime reports
Pension reporting and updating
P.ersonnel: planning, placement, records
PERT charts: automatic drawing and up~dating
Performance evaluation
Plastic plates: emboss, codepunch
Price analysis
Production forecasting
Property accounting
Punched tape: Automatic production and reading
Purchase order writing
Questionnaire analysis
Record retention and destruction studies
Repair and maintenance: records, scheduling, control
Rent analysis
Retirement fund: records, valuation
Royalty processing
Sa lary advances
Sales analysis, area distribution, forecasting, quota
calculations
Savings bond deductions
Seniority records
Social Security records
Systems: analysis, synthesis, evaluation
Taxes, calculation
Transportation optimization
Traveling salesmen scheduling
Turnover analysis
Vacation scheduling
Voucher distribution
Wage and salary analysis, records, tax computations
Warehousing and stocking: records, analysis
Work-in-process records
201
APPLICATIONS OF COMPUTERS
2.
Plant and Production
Assembly line balancing
Cartons: automatic manufacture and packaging
Construction accounting
Construction job scheduling
Conveyor systems: designing
Critical path scheduling
Delivery scheduling
Dispatching control
Equipment capabilities: inventory, analysis
Factory operation simulation
Fuel consumption: records, analysis
Industrial accidents: analysis
Inspection: planning, scheduling
Inventory: control, record maintenance
Job standards: determination
Labor.management: remote terminal payroll system, scheduling
Labor utilization: analysis
Lathe operations: automatic control
Machine loading schedules
Machine tools: numerical control, control for automatic
reproduction of complete parts
Machine utilization: analysis, job allocation
Maintenance: records, analysis, scheduling
Manpower utilization: analysis, schedules
Materials and parts: requirements, allocations, scheduling,
control
Operational planning
Optimum ordering: determination
Parts catalogs: changes, construction, control
Parts design: evaluate modifications
Parts replacement service: scheduling, control
Power used: reports, analysis
Precision artwork
Precision measuring
Procurement
Product: grading, designing, marketing, testing
Production: forecasts, information analysis, scheduling
Production operations: determination of optimum order
Quality control
Repairs: records, analysis, scheduling, control
Route accounting (bakeries, bottling plants, dairies, etc.)
Routing cable and electrical wiring
Salvage records
202
APPLICATIONS OF COMPUTERS
Scrap reporting
Shipping control
Shop scheduling, optimum
Shrinkage calculations
Traffic control
Truck maintenance
Warehouse automation
Work standards: coding analysis
II.
BUSINESS -- SPECIFIC FIELDS
1.
Educational and Institutional
Administration:
analysis
attendance records: analysis processing summaries
budgeting
buses: routing, scheduling
classes, scheduling
courses, scheduling
exams, scheduling
honor' rolls, compilation
records, maintenance
report cards: preparation, issuance
revenue and expense accounting
rooms, scheduling
sections, scheduling
student loan applications: processing
student records: interpretation, processing
student registration
supply accounting
teacher scheduling
teacher credential issuance
test results, compilation
Alumni records: analysis mailings, maintenance
Aptitude tests: scoring, analysis
Audio-visual instruction
College board examinations: interpreting, scheduling,
scoring
College' selection: aiding high school students to
select colleges
Computer-assisted instruction -college
chemistry
languages
203
APPLICATIONS OF COMPUTERS
mathematics
medical
physics
programming via Braille
statistics
elementary:
arithmetric
history
reading
high-school:
algebra
biology
languages
physics
medical:
patient simulator training programs for nurses,
interns, medical students, ward attendants
Curriculum searches: instructional aids
Identifying "underachieving" bright students
Laboratory experiments: automatic control
Language teaching
Matching teachers with job vacancies
Personality test analysis for counseling
Teacher standards evaluation
Teaching
Test grading
Training Manuals: preparation, maintenance
Vocational decision making
2.
Government
Accident records: accident repeater lists, safety programs,
analysis
Adoption: matching prospective parents and hard-to-adopt
children
Air mail extracting
Air-conditioning plant: control
Air traffic control, automated: radar data processing, radar
tracking of aircraft
Appropriation accounting
Budgetary control
Census analysis
Commercial development planning
Computer auditing computers
Contracts: detection of collusive bidding
Corporate records: computerized
Detecting unlicensed television and radio set owners
(Netherlands)
204
APPLICATIONS OF COMPUTERS
Draft: investigation, analysis
Driver license applications: checking, processing
Driver records: automated
.
Drivers' licenses via remote control: amending, duplication,
issuing to qualified new residents
Drug control
Economy: simulation of sections
Election returns: analysis, processing
Emergency procedures testing: disaster simulation
Fire: research, simulation (a Building fire), statistics
Fire department false alarms: forecasting
Fires, forest: analysis, reduction
Fiscal accounting
Floods: automatic warning system, evacuation preparations
Foreign policy analysis
Garbage collection service: route scheduling
Hack licenses recording
Highway toll and service area revenues processing
Highways: maximum speed determination
Housing control
Income tax accounting
Income tax checking: nationwide
Inventory: office properties listing
Land use surveys
Legislative bills: drafting, editing, final copy preparation,
information retrieval, printing, processing, redrafting,
revising copy, status reports, updating
Legislators: research of proposed laws, state expenditures,
monitoring
Mail: deliveries, scheduling, routing, sorting, volume
determination
Motor vehicles: excise tax billing, registration
New drug application processing
Parts cataloging
Payroll: computation and payment, earnings statements,
reporting, W-2 forms, automated
Political district reapportionment
Postage stamps: design (Netherlands)
Property right-of-way analysis
Property value analysis
Public Health -Air pollution: analysis, detection records, research,
standards program development
Aqueduct control
Multiphasic Health Screening Exam Program: data summarization and print-out, electrocardiograms - analysis,
transmission, print-out, information storage and
205
APPLICATIONS OF COMPUTERS
retrieval, statistical summaries
Poison control file: poisons and their antidotes
Radiation studies
Water pollution: analysis, control, monitoring, studies
Water purification studies
Radio station licenses: issuance
Roads, maintenance
Rubbish disposal planning, route analysis
Sales tax collections: funds, distribution calculations,
retailer's records, updating
Sewers: customer listings, maintenance, rates revenue
Sidewalks, maintenance
Site-selection: computer-based
State warrants: writing
Statistical analysis
Street index and inventory system
Supplies: inventory and control
Taxes: refunds, processing, statement preparation
Town planning
Traffic: accident frequency pattern analysis, accident
statistics, control, flow computation, signal regulation,
simulation, summonses, ticket control
Traffic density: pictorial simulation
Traffic interchanges: designs of angles and grades
Traffic lights: maintenance control
Unemployment: information and claims processing, matching job
openings with unemployed
Urban renewal planning
Vital statistics (births and deaths)
Waste disposal studies: simulation
Water pollution: graphic display
Water supply: customer listings, distribution supervlslon,
meter reading, automatic, monitoring systems, pollution
detection, rates revenue
Workload and manpower fluctuations
3.
Hospitals
Administration: control
Autoanalyzers: monitoring
Billing
Blood banks: control, inventory, needs, usage
Clinical observations: analysis
Clinical research information: storage, analysis
Clinical tests: patient scheduling
206
APPLICATIONS OF COMPUTERs
Diagnosis and treatment: providing information on-line
Drugs: dipensing, inventory control, purchase order printout, re-order, automatic, tracking
Electrocardiograms: analysis
Food: cost control, menu planning, nutrient value control
Health check-ups
Health insurance: hospital admission approval
Inventory
Outpatients: appointments -- processing, follow-ups, records,
traffic scheduling
Patient billing
Patient data: on-line gathering and processing
Patient menus: planning
Patient records: analysis collation, medication file(drug
history), summaries
Patient's condition during operation: recording and reporting
Physiological systems and conditons: quantitative study
Poison control center
Prescriptions: checking, label print-out, orders, prescription print-out, verification
Supplies: records, control
Surgery scheduling
X-rays: patient scheduling
4.
Law
Documentary evidence for court cases: organization
Judicial decisions: simulation of
Laws: analysis, consistency studies
Lawyers: court assignment for indigents
Legal research
Legal services to disadvantaged: case summaries, writing,
client records, maintenance, legal correspondence, preparation, legal documents, preparation
Magistrate courts: records
Patent searching
Pretesting of proposed legislation
Property right-of-way: analysis, determination
Property value: analysis
Reconstruction of decisions (using statistical methods) re:
taxes, trust funds, public utility rates
Statute retrieval
Title searching
Writing title policies
207
APPLICATIONS OF COMPUTERS
5.
Libraries
Archival material, automated control
Book purchasing
Card catalogs: maintenance and updating
Circulation control
Index: production
Information retrieval
Inventory
Magazines, Journals: ordering, controlling
Overdue notifications
Records and control
Registration~
computerized
6.
Police
Arrests: record
Ballistics: identification
Crime occurence: pattern analysis
Criminal identification
Fingerprints: identification, processing, searching
Local law enforcement: command and control system, driver's
license and registration file, motor vehicle registration
file, stolen motor vehicle file
Message switching
Missing persons file
Road blocks: setting up
Stolen automobile: identification
Stolen property: information storage and retrieval (national
file)
Traffic law violations: accounting, analysis, recording
Wanted persons: information storage and retrieval (national
file)
III.
1.
SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING
Economics
Household simulation
Industry: analysis. simulation of competition
Input-output analysis
Input-output models
Leontief models
Mathematical models of investment planning
Nonlinear economic models
208
APPLICATIONS OF COMPUTERS
2.
Medicine and Physiology
Ambulatory clinic, records control
Anesthesia: control, simulation
Arterial physiology research
Alveolar gas parameter computation
Bacteria in photographs, slides: counting
Ballistocardiogram analysis
Biologic rhythm studies
Blindness: early detection and treatment
Blood: analysis, cells in photographs, slides (counting),
chemistry determination, flow analysis, grouping and typing,
hemodynamic studies, red cell volume (calculation, supply
and distribution control, vessel distensibility, determinations), vessel wall properties, volume (calculation of total
amount in circulation and loss)
Body functions (human): simulation
Bone crystal structures: calculations
Brain (human): cerebral slow waves (correlation and spectral
analysis), functioning studies, life determination studies,
pain-transmitting area, location research (basal ganglia
functions, cerebellar functions), responses to light
simulation, simulation
Cancer: cell growth simulation, diagnois, patient histories,
registry compilation, treatment
Carbon monoxide studies: analysis, data collection
Cardiac patients, monitoring: arterial blood pressure,
central venous pressure, heart pumping rate, output
Cardiovascular physiology studies
Cervical and vaginal smear screening
Cervical cancer incidence: analysis, data compilation, predisposition studies
Clinical data: statistical analysis
Compartmental rate exchange parameters
Coronary artery disease prediction
Cytophotometric analysis
Dermatoglyphic diagnosis
Diagnois: medical
Diagnostic possibilities: comments, listing, suggestions
Disease patterns: recognition of
Drugs: data retrieval, effectiveness analysis, prediction
of body response to new drugs, study of diverse reactions
Drugs, effects of: animal studies, human body studies
Ear (human): cochlea, simulation, hearing defects of newborn
child, determination of, hearing loss: testing analysis,
simulation for hearing analysis, simulation for speech
analysis
209
APPLICATIONS OF COMPUTERS
Eating habit pattern
Ecological system simulation
Electrocardiograms: analysis, integration, on-line monitoring,
print-out, transmission
Electroencephalograms: analysis, diagnostic repo~t
Enzyme kinetic representations
Epidemics, simulation of
Eye: disorders simulation, lesions - site, stability, and
nature of: studies, muscle studies, physiology of, analysis,
pupil servomechanism analysis, retinal responses to light,
simulation
Fatigue research
Gastrointestinal tract: blood presence, detecting and monitoring,
pressures, detection and recording
Gene frequency calculation
Growth and physique studies
Hand, artificial: controlled
Heart: catheterization monitoring, electrical discharges,
analysis, fetal heart beat recording, heartbeat analysis,
motion picture analysis (living heart), output - dye
dilution curves, studies
Heart disease: screening community population for presence
of
Heart pump: computerized
Hypertensive pressure computations
Intestinal absorption rate measurement
Intracranial lesions - site, stability and nature of: studies
Iodine metabolism computation
Isotope medicine: radioisotope scans: analysis, tracer
studies: analysis
Lung disease detection
Malignant tissues, locations
Medical data: telemetering and analysis
Medical literature: indexing, analysis
Medical profiles: compilation
Medical tests: analysis
Medication administration schedules
Memory (human) research: short-term recall studies, stored
information retrieval analysis
Mental disorders: diagnosis
Metabolic control involving chemical feedback
Motor system coordination testing
Muscle, skeletal: behavior studies
Neural events: studies
Neuroelectric data processing
Neuron signal conduction theory
210
APPLICATIONS OF COMPUTERS
Nerves, peripheral: behavior studies
Nutritional intake analysis
Optimum therapeutic procedure determination
Organ transplants: donor-recipient matching
Organic chemical compounds: effects of -- in malaria
radiology, schistosomiasis, etc.
Pacemakers: status analysis
Patient history recording
Patient simulators for training in anesthesiology
Patients, critically ill: monitoring
Pediatric psychiatric diagnosis
Pharmacological research: patient simulation
Phonocardiogram analysis
Post mortem examination analysis
Probability in medical diagnosis
Prognosis: medical
Psychiatric test scoring
Pulse analysis
Radiation therapy
Radio frequency waves: effects on biological macromolecules -studies
Renal function simulation
Shock therapy: monitoring of patient condition
Speech research
Strokes: Studies
Surgery, open-heart: blood infusion, postoperative monitoring
Symptom-disease complexes
Temperature of man: simulation
Thyroid disease: diagnosis
Toxicity data analysis
Tumors, location
Veterinary medicine: records processing
X-ray analysis
211
APPENDIX III
DATA BASE OF FORECASTS PERTAINING TO DEVELOPMENT
OF COMPUTER TECHNOLOGY: PRESENT--YEAR 2000
The two parts of this appendix comprise a part of the data base
which has been utilized in the Computer Pilot Study of the Technology
Assessment Project.
Part A contains a substantial number of projections concerning
the applications of computer technology.
This information was
obtained from the Parsons and Williams Study, Forecast 1968-2000
of Computer Developments and Applications.
This was a European study
using a modified Delphi Technique.
Part B, "Data Bank of Events," consists of an excerpt from A
Fifteen-Year Forecast of Information-Processing Technology by
.
George B. Bernstel.n.
(70)
Associated with each event are evaluations
as to whether or not it would be a major event, its desirability,
feasibility, and expected time of occurrence.
Bernstein.'s report
presents the results of a technology forecasting project which
utilized a modified Delphi Technique called SEER.
Round I of that
project provided a data base; Round II refined, extended, and structured that data base to enhance its value for planning. and for system
design personnel.
A group of over 45 outstanding individuals in the
field of information processing participated in the activities of
Round II.
The group included representatives from the Federal
Government, industry and the academic world.
Each evaluation
included in Part B of this appendix is the consensus of members of
that group.
212
PART A:
COMPUTER APPLICATION FORECAST*(71)
The application of EDP in jurisprudence
presents delicate political problems and
could easily influence democracy as known
today.
JURISPRUDENCE
Computerized storage and retrieval of data
bank for legislative and criminal justice
agenc ies.
1970 Decade
,'(;'(
Before Year 2000
MONETARY SYSTEM
Late 1990
Certain standard types of jurisdiction
(e.g., traffic violations) could be dealt
with entirely through computers.
The service of EDP transfer and accounting
of money is currently being introduced.
Future progress will be decided by successful identification of individuals inter~cting with automated banking and finance
systems.
Widespread use of EDP-transfer of money but
not universal. Psychological factors contribute to reluctance in universal acceptance;
the number of banks may decrease drastically
as a result; people classified as credit risks
may be totally isolated from access to financial
service.
The idea of instant collection of tax as
income is received has been discussed extensively in the EDP field. Few attempts to
apply this have been made thus far. EDP is
normally used only in tax collection agencies
to make retrieval and storage of account data
easier.
TAXES
1982-1990
Recording of all income by the majority of
employers on terminals and automatic transfer
of this information to tax authorities.
Strong opposition to such a system was voiced
in the EDP community.
This forecast used a form of the Delphi Technique.
**Less
likely than other events.
213
COMPUTER APPLICATION FORECAST
AUTOMOBILE TRAFFIC
Automated control of traffic flow to set
speed limits, time traffic signals and route
the heaviest concentration of traffic will
help improved road safety. Traffic law
enforcement will also be assisted by automated systems.
1973-1979
The direction of large urban traffic flows
by computer is expected to be common practice.-
1980-1986
Policing of individual vehicles by combined
radar detection and computer recording of
violation (license number, excessive speed,
etc.) Semiautomated systems using a
computer to store and retrieve violator
information are beirg tested today; however,
detection, monitoring and recording of
violations are largely performed by people.
1990
Widespread use of auto-pilots on automobiles
to electronically control acceleration,
braking and distance between cars.
EDUCATION, LIBRARIES
AND SCIENCE
1975-1981
(1978)
1985-1998
(1992)
1979-1986
(1983)
Computer Aided Instruction (CAl) is expected
to be a valuable new means of educating all
ages in the future. Such systems might
increase the efficiency of teaching and
thereby reduce time needed for learning a
new subject or skill.
Widespread use of CAl systems; a network
with many terminals installed in schools
and universities connected to a few large
scale computers.
Drastic changes in book libraries with
computers assuming the functions of storing
abstracts, and retrieving documents. (Such
systems will be expensive.)
Maintaining updated status of scientific and
other advances in central files. (Emphasis
on control and protection of national and
commercial interest,difficulty of classification; and technical problems of developing
flexible central file systems will be limiting
factors.)
214
COMPUTER APPLICATION FORECAST
MEDICINE
Medical electronic data processing is being
used for administrative and clinical functions such as patient's record keeping,
work flow planning in laboratories, medication
~cheduling and monitoring of patients under
postoperative or intensive care. In the
next two decades EDP will enjoy wide-scale
use in all aspects of medical care, including
diagnosis and pathology research.
1974-1980
The use of electronic monitors and computers
will·be integrated into day-to-day hospital
operations.
1980-1987
A majority of doctors will have access to
terminals for consultation with specialists,
beginning in large hospitals and spreading
to private practice; a strong network of
computer and terminal aid for doctors is
foreseen.
1976-1989
(1983)
INDUSTRY
Computer diagnostic programs are expected
to give reliable results -- computers as a
final decision maker is not foreseen. There
will be broade~ application of computers in
medical research, e.g., the grading by
computers of diseases in order to recognize
disease pa.tterns and simulate the effect of
illness in patients.
Several complete computer-controlled factories
exist today. A gradual growth of automated
factories is foreseen but not dramatic
acceleration. Small industries will probably
not be automated. Computerized information
systems on the other hand may experience
fast growth.
Before 2000
Complete automation of industry not feasible.
1980's and 1990's
Steady but gradual growth rate in factory
automation, starting in depa.rtments of very
large factories then expanding to cover all
large firms and medium-sized factories.
215
COMPUTER APPLICATION FORECAST
INDUSTRY (Cont'd)
No Date
1980-1990
(1984)
COMMERCIAL AIRPLANE
TRAFFIC
1975-1985
(1979)
Fast growth toward the implementation of
integrated electronic information systems
which will connect geographica.lly distributed facilities and provide information
exchange laterally and vertically across
organizational units--rnanufacturing, sales,
administration, research, etc.
A 50 percent reduction of major industries'
labor force due to automation. However, a
st~ong demand for specialists is expected.
Labor unions may slow the unemployment trend,
counterbalancing the effects of automation.
More automation will be introduced to control
all stages of commercial flight from takeoff, en-route to landing. Computerized autopilots are still in the research phase.
Complete computer-controlled commercial
airplanes, including take-off and landings.
PRIVATE HOMES
It is commonly believed that computers will
one day be found in nearly every private
home. It will likely be a terminal with
access to one or more large data banks.
The cost of such equipment and services
will be comparable to high price tag appliances.
1990's
A strong trend toward the use of private
computers and/or terminals. Computing
equipment will be as common as telephones
and television today in many countries;
some units will be built into houses.
Data communication cost may be a delaying
factor. Newspapers as known today will be
partially eliminated. Human reading habit
of conventional printing may perhaps not be
affected.
216
RECAPITULATION
A summary of the general trend in computer development as
indicated in the Parsons and Williams study is presented in the
following discussion.
The future of EDP will be based in large
measure on networks of small terminals connected to central computer
systems.
Some terminals will be small and medium size computers
themselves.
Two of the reasons for this trend are the following:
(a)
Major EDP costs in the future will be storage devices
making it economically necessary to share them.
(b)
Small customers will want to use large computers to
solve more sophisticated problems.
This future network will comprise few very large computers,
several medium-size and many small general-purpose computers and
terminals.
Until the year 2000, general-purpose computers will
continue to dominate the scene.
Specialized computers will also
exist, but will be used for control functions in production and in
operation of machinery.
217
PART B:
DATA BANK OF EVENTS
Part B of Appendix III, Data Bank of Events, consists of a
lO-page'sample from the 'approximately '50 pages of "Data Bank of
Events" contained in the Bernstein study. (72)
The sample consists
of Category 13, namely Systems and Applications.
Each of the events in the Systems and Applications Category
is evaluated in the four ways which are described in the following
quotation from the referenced study:
"1. Goal - The experts were asked to designate major events.
Those events designated by the category panel as major were
treated as potential goals. Those goals considered to have
a better than 50% probability of being achieved by 1975 were
des ignated as short -term, signified by~. Those goals ,not
meeting the short-range requirement yet having a better than
50% probability of being achieved by 1983 were designated
as mid-range, signified by~. Those goals considered by
the experts to meet the probability of success requirement
only after 1983 were considered long-range, signified by
L. To prevent errors of omission, those events not qualifying
as goals were designated not applicable, signified by N/A.
2. Desirability - The experts were asked to consider, from
the user's point of view, the need to make the results of
each event available as a usable product. The evaluation
is expressed as an index from 1 to 9: 1 signifies undesirable
but possible; ~ signifies desirable; and ~ signifies highly
desirable. The value assigned to each event was calculated
as an average rounded to the nearest whole number. The
intermediate desirability index values then indicate moderating
degrees of intensity.
3. Feasibility - The experts were asked to evaluate, from
the producer's point of view, the technical, economic, and
commercial feasibility of converting the event into a usable
product. The evaluation is expressed as an index from 1 to
~:
1 signifies unlikely but possible; ~ signifies feasible;
and ~ signifies highly feasible. The value assigned to each
event was calculated as an average rounded to the nearest
whole number. The intermediate feasibility index values then
indicat~ m~derating degrees of intensity.
218
4. Timing - The expected time of event occurrence is
depicted by a triangle: the year by which there is a
• reasonable chance' that the event will have occurred
(probability of 20%) is indicated by the left tip; the
year by which the event is 'almost certain' to have occurred
(probability of 90%) is indicated by the right tip; and the
'expected' year of occurrence (probability of 50%) is
indicated by the vertex."
219
CATEGORY -
13.
~
SYSTEMS AND APPLICATIONS
~
....J
~
~
en
....J
a:
en
en
<{
EVENT
....J
<{
o
(!)
w
o
en
TIMING
<{
w
u.
Navy computer networks which can interchange information with other remotely
located computers over communication links, such as the process of letting bids
on a job (i.e., reducing it from months to hours).
N/A
b.
Artificial intelligence - computers that learn, think, create, etc.
N/A
5
3178~90
c.
Man-connected computer systems in common use for control of eye movement, muscle
or brain waves.
N/A
2
4
d.
A large number of small computers on-line with a central system will become
commonplace.
N/A
5
5
Small modular computers will be built into experiments as part of the control or
data acquisition system.
N/A
f.
In many system purchases, components will be obtained from different manufacturers, e.g., main frame from manufacturer A, memory from manufacturer B,
peripherals from other manufacturers, etc.
N/A
5
8
g.
The advent of watch-like computers will change the requirements for central timeshared machines and turn them into message switchers, large remote batch systems
and libraries.
N/A
5
5
The advent of watch-like computers will radically change our views of present
communication, information handling, displays and data capture. In fact, they
may become the prime terminal.
N/A
High storage-density optical media for information storage and retrieval with
variable magnification viewing and insertion of data into video displays will be
available (i.e., microfilm = microphotographics).
~/A
a.
6
7 I
70773
71
85
75
-==::::::;?
90
71~79
75
N
N
o
e.
h.
i.
5
8
68~76
72
69"772
70
74~81
78
5
5
74
'7'
81
78
6
8
68
¥
70
CATEGORY -
13.
>I-
SYSTEMS AND APPLICATIONS (Continued)
EVENT
....J
j.
Centralized blue print files using film chips will become feasible. Chips will
be retrieved automatically, scanned and relayed over wide band lines.
k.
Widespread use of graphics systems for management and planning. Display consoles
available to managers and their staff providing access to the accumulated information resources of the country.
1.
Widespread use of computer aided design techniques for structures, ships, planes,
autos and component parts.
m.
I-
co
....J
-
::J
w
F
6
co
U)
TIMING
- >-..-.J
SYSTEMS AND APPLICATIONS (Continued)
co
-.J
a:
en
en
Q
LL
<{
EVENT
-.J
<{
o<.!)
s.
Combined analog/digital systems will appear including tape for storage and
retrieval of photographic data with digital data.
t.
w
co
TIMING
<{
w
N/A
5
6
3rd generation hardware lifetime will be extended by memory extension.
S
6
7
u.
Systems providing access to "library" type data with hard copy output via simple
electronic I/O device (direct transmission) will be operational on a local city
basis.
M
6
6
v.
Low cost stored program processors will link the local retail outlet to powerful
central processors for inventory control and accounting.
I S
6
8
w.
Computers with many (thousands) remote terminals netted together across nation and
world-wide doing cooperative problem solving.
." M
6
6
x.
Library data will be available on home TV sets.
~/A
5
5
y.
Low cost stored program computers with many teletypewriter terminals will serve
as local message collection and distribution terminals and provide access to
primary communication systems.
S
8
8
z.
Multilevel computer and terminal networks with some processing done at terminal,
~/A
some at 1st level computer geographically close, some at 2nd level computer further
away and more powerful, etc., will be developed. All processing will be done at
the lowest possible level in the network to minimize communication costs.
8
8
~/A
4
4
73
80
Y
70"'J 72
71
73
~
78
70
I\.)
~
72
81
76
I'.)
I\.)
aa.
Remote inquiry stations combined with television will provide over 50% of college
education for engineering students.
73
80
70
~
~
73
71
74
80
~
75
2000
78
75
--rr=-
~
78
83
CATEGORY -
13.
>I-
SYSTEMS AND APPLICATIONS (Continued)
I-
-
::::i
0
::::i
U5
TIMING
-
SYSTEMS AND APPLICATIONS (Continued)
f-
::i
CXl
EVENT
-l
~
o
c.?
~
~
«
a:
Cii
w
o
....>-
::i
CXl
Cii
TIMING
«
w
u.
jj,
Instead of buying boo~s and going to libraries for information, a student will
be issued ~ reader and complete sets of microfiLm with his entire course of study
and all of the associated reading materials. The cost would be sufficiently low
that the convenience to him would be worth the cost. The ability of microfilm
to be distributed quickly and easily and updated would make it possible for
additional materials to be handed out easily and quickly to be added to the
collection in case the art is a~Jancing or additional materials become available.
N/A I 5
7
72
kk.
Use of microforms in the home will be accelerated by merchandizing in color
microfiche catalogues read on home TV viewers.
N/A I 5
5
72
11.
Computer generated tapes for playback on inexpensive audio/video equipment will
be prevalent •
N/A
5
.p-.
mm.
5
76
~
75
"?
80
78
~
87
81
Digitized voice/analog transmission between central offices and switching centers
to facilitate time-division multiplexing, encryption and switching.
S
nn.
Full blown time-sharing systems which provide multiprogramming capability and
remote terminal servicing will be available.
S
9
7
00.
There will be substantial use of the on-line time-sharing computer systems which
will facilitate the purchase of computing services at a reasonable price. Line
costs will still be high, resulting in system costs which will prevent widespread
use for some time.
S
8
6
pp.
Use of simulation to determine design of information storage and retrieval
systems.
N/A
5
5
6
71
5
78
"*<74
70
~
74
69'\771
70
69
Y
72
CATEGORY -
13.
>-
I-
SYSTEMS AND APPLICATIONS (Continued)
:::i
:::i
ex:
en
~
~
EVENT
....,
....,
~
~
co
a::I
o(!J
U5
o
u.
N/A
8
8
w
qq.
MOdular, dynamically changeable command structures in on-line systems for rapid
construction of easier man-machine interfaces which are particularized to
individual users.
rr.
Man-machine capabilities to allow a user to examine in greater detail, at various
levels, the output results of Management Information reports. With this would
also come the opportunity to experiment more with overall results by causing
changes in variables used in projecting from the bases established by using this
stored information. The result would be a greater understanding by the user of
the methods used to derive the information and what variables cause changes in
what areas.
S
6
6
SSe
Management not making use of management information and control systems which are
real-time current awareness call up systems will not be able to perform
competitively.
N/A
5
6
V1
tt.
Program restructurable systems.
uu.
User programmed systems without programmers.
firmware.
vv.
ww.
xx.
Programmer only used to program
Due to cost considerations, there will be an upsurge of remote batch processing
systems which will have a depressing effect on interactive time-sharing systems.
Self-organizing software systems which given a generic description of a new
capability generates new code.
Low-level machine assistance to indexing of documents
TIMING
~
w
70
¥
70
~
74
77
70~75
72
S
6
5
N/A
4
6
70
~
72
74
73
'V
77
75
N/A
2
1
69~2
7
71
M
6
3
72
77
-.::::::::::7
75
N/A
6
5
70
75
~
73
CATEGORY -
13.
>-
I-
SYSTEMS AND APPLICATIONS (Continued)
EVENT
I-
-J
co
-
-J
w
M 15
-J
TIMING
U)
-
SYSTEMS AND APPLICATIONS (Continued)
EVENT
I-
...J
4:
o
<.!)
::J
co
4:
a:
en
w
Q
>-
I-
::J
co
4:
w
u.
Development of machine-processable languages capable of representing and
simulating the combined action of hardware and software systems at whatever
level is desired, from logic elements through modules and more complex units.
M 15
A major increase in the use of computers for simulation is predicted facilitated
by major changes in the use of peripheral equipment.
S 15
kkk.
Cryptographic systems for normal business data will be in use.
M 15
9
111.
Automatic adaptive dissemination of information such as selective distribution
of predetermined types of data.
S
I8
5
iii.
jjj.
TIMING
CJ)
7
72
82
77
70~75
9
72
73
~
75
80
70
n
75
~
~
Immm.
An international technical data system will be in operation:
(1)
with access by company library via electronic I/O devices.
M 17
6
(2)
with access by individual scientist through desk top devices.
L
9
3
(3)
with electronic language translation capability provided.
L
5
4
S
15
8
nnn.
Central large computers will be available on phone lines in most large cities.
000.
Laboratories, as we know them today, may go out of style as experimentation by
computer will be less expensive than by other methods. Laboratories may be used
only to validate the research done by computer.
ppp.
Automation will have advanced farther, from doing menial chores to performing
some rather sophisticated high-IQ functions.
75
85
80
80
91
~
86
90
2000
~
720c::::::::776
75
IN/A 11
L
18
1
85
2
74
~
2100
~
95
CATEGORY -
13.
>r-
SYSTEMS AND APPLICATIONS (Continued)
::J
cc
EVENT
...J
«
o
<.!)
f\,)
f\,)
«a:
.~
Cl
>r-
::J
cc
TIMING
U)
«
w
u.
84
qqq.
Complete interlocking of man and machine will be accomplished although the degree
to which brain waves will be utilized is questionable; but man will be able to
function as an integral part of an analog in systems sufficiently fast that the
analog will make a half a dozen dry runs from which the optimum will be selected.
L
15
3
rrr.
Techniques will be perfected to isolate hardware and software malfunctions,
postively.
M 18
5
sss.
Hardware and software purchases will be divorced.
S
14
3
ttt.
Marriage of computer-aided instruction techniques with standard information
processing technology to effect error handling and reference manuals through
user training.
M 18
8
72
uuu.
Operation of national or world-wide central data storage facility with wide access I M I 6
for general or specialized information retrieval.
4
75
vvv.
Office and home use of a computer utilize centralized on a city basis will
become common.
IN/A 14
5
75
www.
The majority of technical specialists will have access to a local typewriter
terminal connected to a time-shared computer.
I S I5
7
xxx.
Advanced communications terminals will allow many professionals to carryon their
work at home, eliminating much person-to-person contact.
IN/A I 1
1
yyy.
Need for Post Office services will decline, and be replaced by point-to-point
digital transmission of information.
IN/A 13
1
00
70
~
87
~
75
68
80
80
~
~
80
70
~
73
")?
78
80
75
Y
~
75
95
85
85
76
2000
~
87
CAT13:GQRY -
13.
>I-
SYSTEMS AND APPLICATIONS (Continued)
:J
co
I:::i
co
til
TIMING
-
SYSTEMS AND APPLICATIONS (Concluded)
I-
I...J
-
...J
69
~
72
69
69
75
~
~
75
80
72
73
72
Y
~
69
¥
72
77
84
REFERENCES
1.
Dr. Ruth M. Davis, "Special Problems and Potential Solutions,"
Time-Sharing Innovation for Operations Research and DecisionMaking, edited by Hugh V. O'Neill and Donald W. King, Washington
Operations Research Council, 1969, p. 186.
2.
Louis Feldner, "Conmrunications and Future Information Systems,"
Information Systems: Current Developments and Future Expansion,
proceedings of a special seminar held for Congressional members
and staff, sponsored by The American Federation of Information
Processing Societies, Washington, D. C., May 20, 1970, pp. 41, 44, 47.
3 0 GE submission to the Federal Communications Commission in
February 1969 regarding the matter of the establishment of domestic non-common carrier communication satellite facilities by
nongovernmental entities.
4.
Ivan Berenyi, "Computers in Eastern Europe," Scientific American,
October 1970, pp. 102-108 0
5.
Herman Kahn and Anthony J o Wiener, The Year 2000, The MacMillan
Company, 1967, p •. 88.
6 0 Co Dudley Warner, "Monitoring: A Key to Cost Efficiency,"
Datamation, January 1, 1971, p. 41.
7.
Wi.lliam F. Sharpe, The Economics of Computers, New York, Columbia
University Press, 1969.
8.
Alan Lo Scherr, An Analysis of Time-Shared Computer Systems,
Research Monograph No. 36, M~I.T. Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 19670
9 0 George B. Bernstein, A Fifteen-Year Forecast of Information
Processing Technology, AD681-752, Naval Supply Systems Command,
Washington, Do C., January 20, 1969.
10 0
D. L. Slotnick, "The Fastest Computer," Scientific American,
February 1971, pp. 76-87.
110
"The Big-time Beckons Minicomputers," Business Week, January 30,
1971, p. 32.
12.
Alan Epstein and David Bessel, "Minicomputers are Made of This,"
Computer Decisions, August 1970, po 10.
231
REFERENCES (Continued)
13.
Arthur E. Peltosalo, "Parlaying a Bet on Time-Sharing,"
Fortune, November 1970, p. 36.
14.
Stuart L. Mathison and Philip M. Walker, Computers and
Telecommunications: Issues in Public Policy, PrenticeHall, Inc., Eng1e'rJood Cliffs, N. J., 1970, p. 31.
15.
Ibid., po 155.
16.
Ibid~,
pp. 157-159.
17.
Ibid~,
p. 156.
18.
"The Satellite Men Struggle for Space," Business Week,
March 6, 1971, p. 27.
19.
Mathison and Walker, 2£0 cit., p. 172.
20.
President's Task Force on Communications Policy, Staff Paper
I - A Survey of Telecommunications Technology, PB184-4l2,
June 1969, p. 35a.
21.
"Crisis in Data Communications - Some Projections of Growth,"
Computer Decisions, November 1970, p. C5.
22.
Herbert Goldhamer, ed., The Social Effects of Communication
Technology, prepared for The Russell Sage Foundation, by
The Rand Corporation, P-486-RSF, Number 13, May 1970, p. 21.
23.
David R. Wolf', "Microfilm and Computers," Reproduction Methods
9:4, April 1969, pp. 38-39, 48-500
24.
Kenneth J. Stetten, et a1., The Design and Testing of a Cost
Effective Computer System for CAI/CM! Application, The MITRE
Corporation, M69-39, Rev. 1, April 1970.
25.
Paul G. Zurkowski, "Post-Gutenberg Copyright Concepts," NMA
Journal, 2:2, Winter 1968/1969, p. 70-73.
26.
''University Presses Examine the New Technology, n Publishers'
Weekly, May 26, 1969, p. 23-27.
232
REFERENCES (Continued)
27.
T. Brennan, "Part II, Copyright," (ABPC-AEPI Joint Sessions,
ABPC Annual Meeting, May 7, 1969), Publishers' Weekly, June 9,
1969 (Copyright 1969 by Xerox Corporation), pp. 33-34.
28.
J. C. R. Licklider, Libraries of the Future, M.I.T. Press,
Cambridge, Mass.achusetts, 1965.
29.
Goldhamer,
30.
Joshua Lederberg, "TA Can Help Prevent Some Hi:storic Mistakes,"
Washington Post, Sund~y, January 24, 1971, p. B2.
31.
W. M. Carley, "On the Defense: Computer Companies Are "Hauled Into Court
by Flurry of Lawsuits ~" Wall Street Journal, Nov. 30, 1970, pp. 1, 18.
32.
Time Magazine, December 21, 1970.
33.
The Cambridge Project, Annual Report, June 1969 -June 1970,
M.I.T. Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, July 1970, p. 3.
34.
T. Mizoguchi, et al .. , "Air Pollution Forecasting by Computer
System," Computer Control Systems for Preventing Air Pollution,
Workshop of International Federation of Automatic Control Kyoto
Symposium, Osaka Chamber of Commerce and Industry, AugUst lS, 1970.
3S.
J. Garrison, et a1., Functional Requirements for an Automatic
Data Processing System for the National Air Pol1utien Control
Administration, MTR-41S0, Volume 1, The MITRE Corporation,
August 1970, pp. 1-2.
36.
''World Health Organizatio"n Launches Global Pollution Detection
System," ACROSS THE EDITOR's DESK, Computers and Automation,
January 1971, p. 49-S0.
37.
Leonard Famiglietti, "EDP Slated as World's Largest Industry,"
Business Automation, November IS, 1970, pp. 22-23.
38.
Ibid.
39.
Ibid.
OPe
cit. pp. 18-19.
233
REFERENCES (Continued)
40.
Phil Hirsch, "Washington Circus ... Circa '70," Datamation,
January 15, 1971.
41.
Feldner,~.
42.
Famiglietti,~.
43.
Goldhamer,~.
44.
Alan F. Westin, Privacy and Freedom, New York, Antheneum, 1967,
pp. 319-321.
45.
Arthur R. Miller, The Assault on Privacy, University of
Michigan Press, Ann Arbor, Michigan, 1971, pp. 37 -38.
46.
R. Turn and H. E. Petersen, Security of Computerized Information
Systems, The Rand Corporation, P-4405, July 1970, p. 2.
47.
Andrew Hawker, "Why We Need 'Thought Police'," New Scientist,
November 12, 1970, p. 337.
48.
Malcolm B. Greenlee, Computer Usage in the Investment Community:
Some Considerations on Privacy, Authentication and Tampering,
The MITRE Corporation, M69-l5, August 1969, pp. 70-73.
49.
W. H. Ware, Future Computer Technology and Its Impact, A Rand
Report, P-3279, March 1966 j p. 17 quoted from "Computer Aspects
of Technological Change, Automation and Economic Progress,"
by P. Armer, The Rand Corporation, November 1965.
50.
Westin,~.
51.
Annette Harrison, The Problem of Privacy in the Computer Age:
An Annotated Bibliography, Memorandum RM-5495/1-PR/RC, The Rand
Corporation, Volume 1, December 1967, Vol. 2, December 1969.
52.
R. E. Peterson, and H. Turn, "System Implications of Information
Privacy," AFIPS Conference Proceedings, Vol. 30, 1967 Spring
Joint Computer Conference, p. 300.
53.
Tom McCusker, "A Monster as Big as Life," Datamation,
February 1, 1971, p.21.
cit., pp. 41, 47.
cit., pp 22-23.
cit., p. v.
£it.
234
REFERENCES (Continued)
54.
Edward E. David, Jr., "Sharing a Computer," International
Science and Technology, June 1966, p. 38.
55.
W. H. Ware, Computer Data Banks and Security Control, The Rand
Corporation, P-4329, March 1970, Resum~.
56.
Jay W. Forrester, Urban Dynamics, M.I.T. Press, Cambridge,
Massachusetts, 1969, p. 107.
57.
J. A. Farquhar, et a1., Applications of Advanced Technology
to Undergraduate Medical Educat~on, A Rand Report, RM-6180-NLM,
April 1970.
58.
Ibid., p. v.
59.
John Gardner, Common Cause, Report from Washington, Volume 1,
Number 1, November 1970.
60.
Curtis H. Jones, "At Last: Real Computer Power For Decision
Makers," Harvard Business Review, September-October, 1970, p. 78.
61.
Go1dhamer, 2£. cit., p. 30.
62.
Norman C. Da1key, The Delphi Method: An Experimental Study
of Group Opinion, Memorandum RM-5888-PR, The Rand Corporation,
June 1969, pp. 11 and 13.
63.
''What Computers May Do Tomorrow," The Futurist, World Future
Society, Washington, D. C., October 1969, p. 135.
64.
Bernstein, 2£. cit. p. 93.
65.
Mathison and Walker, 2£. cit.
66.
William R. Graham, The Impact of Future Developments in Computer Technology, The Rand Corporation, P-440l, June 1970.
67.
American National Standard Vocabulary for Information Processing,
ANSI X3.12-1970, American Nationa.l Standa.rds Institute, Inc.,
1430 Broadway, New York, N. Y., 1970.
235
REFERENCES (Concluded)
68.
Selected list of applications from IBM's Submission to the
FCC in 1968 with respect to the Federal Communications
Commission Computer Inquiry, FCC Docket No. 16979, "Regulatory
and Policy Problems Presented by The Interdependence of
Computer and Conmrunications Services and Facilities."
69.
Linda Ladd Lovett, "Over 2000 Applications of Computers and
Data Processing," "Computer Directory and Buyer's Guide"
issue, 1970, of Computers and Automation, Volume 19, No. 6B,
November 30, 1970. p. 12.
70.
Bernstein, £E. cit.
71.
Parsons and Williams, Forecast 1968-2000 of Computer Developments and Applicat.ions, November 1968.
1 ~, ..
72.
Bernstein,.QE.. cit., pp. '93-102.
236
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