Study_of_Advanced_Applications_May1971 Study Of Advanced Applications May1971
Study_of_Advanced_Applications_May1971 Study_of_Advanced_Applications_May1971
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STUDY
OF
:k:
,~,
.....
APPLICATIONS
By
Kenneth E. Wylie
(
This report is an extension of the previously distributed
"Summary of Results of the GUIDE/IBM Study of Advanced
Applications" dated 12/70. The additions are primarily
in the Preface, Section IV., and Section VI.
.,
INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS MACHINES CORPORATION
Data Processing Division
Advanced Systems Planning
IBM CONFIDENTIAL
CONTENTS
f
I,
PREFACE
p.l
!€
p.l
p.l
'I
i~
r":
Sponsorship of the Study
How to Read the Report
;i
'I
'j
Ij
I.
II.
III.
(
INTRODUCTION
I.l
Aims of the Study
The Delphi Technique
The Study
I.l
I.l
I.2
GENERAL RESULTS
II.l
The 1985 World of Data Processing
Application Trends
Major Required Capabilities
II.l
II.3
II.5
DETAILED APPLICATION RESULTS
III.1
Agriculture
Airlines
Business Assistance
Computer Assisted Research
Distribution and Retail
Ecology
Education
Financial
Freight Transportation
Government Service
Home Terminals
Information Systems
Information Utilities
Judicial and Legislative
Manufacturing and Process
Media
Medical
Office Assistance
Public and Private Transit
Utilities
111.5
III.9
III.15
III.23
III.28
III.34
111.42
111.50
111.63
111.72
111.92
III.99
III.110
111.126
III.131
III.143
111.149
III.159
III.163
111.169
i
Ii
,
IV.
DETAILED CAPABILITIES RESULTS
IV.l
Communication Requirements
Terminal Capabilities
Data Base Requirements
Capacity and Availability
Advanced Capabilities
Application Software Requirements
Data Processing Services
Special Products
IV.4
IV.16
IV.33
IV.50
IV.59
IV.74
IV.104
IV.109
V.
STUDY ORGANIZATION
V.l
VI.
DATA ANALYSIS
VI.l
The Respondent Panel Distribution
The Consensuses
Comparison of Results With Other Studies
and Published Articles
VI.l
VI.2
VI.4
APPENDICIES
Appendix A
A.l
Applications Deleted From the Original
List
Appendix B
A.l
B.l
List of Respondents
Appendix C
B.l
C.l
Alphabetic List of Applications
Appendix D
C.l
D.l
Price/Performance Sensitive Applications
ii
D'.l
IBH CONFIDENTIAL
(
PREFACE
Sponsorship And Distribution
The study reported was sponsored jointly by the User Strategy
Evaluation Committee (USEC) of GUIDE International and by the
Advanced Systems Planning Department, Data Processing Division
of International Business ~1achines Corporation.
The results of the study in the form of a summary have been
distributed to all respondents, to a distribution list within
IBH, and through USEC to the user community. This report is
an extension of the summary and contains additional analysis
particularly related to data processing capabilities. Because of
the added analysis, the report has been classified IBH CONFIDENTIAL
and will be distributed only within IBM.
Hml
To Read The Report
For ease of use, the report has been organized into levels of
increasing detail. Host readers will find it unnecessary to
read the whole report in order to satisfy their interests. Below
are suggested reading plans for various classes of readers:
(
•
Added Sections For Those
Read:
•
•
•
•
Have Read The Summary
The Detailed Capability Results
A Comparison of the Results to Other
Forecasts and Published Articles
Alphabetic List of Applications
Page
IV.l
VI.S
C.l
A General Overview Of The Study And Results
Page
Read:
Iel
II.l
•
•
•
•
~1ho
The Introduction
The General Results
Any Scenarios which are of particular
interest
Any Capabilities which are of particular
interest
.
III.?
IV. ?
Specific Data Processing Areas Of Interest
Page
Read:
I.l
II.l
•
•
•
•
•
The Introduction
The General Results
The Scenario, Area Forecasts and Detailed
Data Listings for the areas of interest
Capabilities which are of interest
The Excluded Applications for the areas of
interest as listed in the Appendix
p.l
III.l
IV.l
A.l
Evaluation and Verification of the Report
Page
Read:
I.1
II.l
VI.l
The Introduction
The General Results
The Data Analysis Section
Such of the Scenarios and Data Printouts
as are of interest
Such of the Capabilities as are of interest
III.?
IV. ?
An Understanding of the Delphi Technique
Page
Read:
I.l
V.l
VI.l
The Introduction
The Detailed Description of the Study
The Data Analysis Section
Enough of the General and Detailed Results
to serve as an example
p.2
"--
II,III
IV
&
-J
./
Ie INTRODUCTION
AIBS OF THE STUDY
The growth and development of data processing equipment and the
diverse uses that it has been put to has been one of the phenomenons of the 1960's. There is much reason to believe that this
will continue into the 1970's and beyond. Ideally, technological
decisions and the development of data processing equipment should
be predicated on a knowledge of the future needs of the end users.
Those needs are in turn based on future applications of data processing, when they can be economically, politically, and socially
justified, and how the applications will be implemented. To
determine the needs, the planner must look far into the future of
a dynamic field. The traditional approach of trend projection
solves some of the forecaster's problems, but he faces two risks
with this approach. Future unpredicted events may cause a radical
change in a trend or there may be entirely new areas for which no
trend 'exists.
In situations like this the usual solution is to turn to an
expert for advice or if the subject is complex and involves
obscure interrelationships between many disciplines, then a
consensus of experts is sought. This study utilizes the Delphi
Technique, an advanced method of obtaining such a consensus of
experts, to investigate the future course of the use of data
processing.
The general aims of tbe study were twofold:
To determine to what uses data processing
will be put in the future and when those uses
will be generally in existence.
To determine what data processing capabilities are
required, when in the future they will be needed,
and if applicable, what magnitudes of the
capabilities will be required.
The specific approach was to view the future from the viewpoint
of the user of data processing, focusing on what he intends
to do, when he intends to do it, and what is required to make it
viable, independent of technological constraints.
THE DELPHI TECHNIQUE
The Delphi Technique was developed by the RAND Corporation in an
effort to obtain consensus predictions of future events from a
I.l
panel of experts without encountering certain adverse psychological
factors associated with open discussions and conferences. Those
factors include: spurious influence by the more prestigious
members of the group,. reluctance to retreat from a publicly
stated position, and bandwagon effect of majority opinion.
The technique consists of an iterative series of questionnaires
which allow experts to anonymously interchange opinions through
an intermediary. The intermediary compiles the opinions and
provides them as controlled feedback in subsequent questionnaires.
Experience has shown that this process causes a convergence of
opinions or at least identifies schools of thought and reasons
for nonconvergence.
It should be recognized that, while the Delphi Technique produces
consensus judgments about the future, those judgments should
not be considered to be "the truth about the future." The future
will contain events that are totally unexpected today. Furthermore,
the mere existence of the forecast may influence the future.
Forecasts which predict undesirable results tend to be selfdefeat'ing, while forecasts with desirable results tend to be selffulfilling. Thus, the current forecasts which deal with the
extent to which we will pollute our environment will probably
not come true because of all the effort exerted to avoid the
predictions. In this sense, the Delphi Technique is not only a
tool for predicting the future, but also a tool for shaping the
future 1 and that after all is "the name of the game."
.
THE STUDY
The panel of respondents was selected from the companies and
organizations that are members of the GUIDE users group and
from throughout the IBM Corporation. Among the criteria for
selection were:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
An interest in the future of data processing
Acknowledged reputation
Responsible position in their organization
Breadth of knowledge in their organization's area
Contribution to the field under investigation
Years of experience
Educational background
An effort was made to insure that all facets of data processing
use were represented and to avoid concentrations in anyone area
or organization. An analysis of the resultant group and a list of
the respondents who allowed us to include their names is included
in a later section of the report.
I.2
The study consisted of a series of four questionnaires during
the course of which the respondents were asked to:
•
Develop a representative list of new applications
of data processing which are not normal extensions
of existing applications.
•
Assign a measure of value to these applications.
•
Forecast the date of implementation.
•
Determine non-data processing factors whose
occurrence or non-occurrence would cause the
implementation date to be accelerated or retarded.
•
Associate with each application critical data
processing capabilities needed to make the
application viable.
•
Wherever possible, assign orders of magnitude
to quantifiable requirements.
Provide considerations and reasons for any strongly
held positions or for any response not in general
agreement with the rest of the panel.
In addition, for purposes of analysis, respondents were asked
to evaluate their own degree of expertise relative to each
application.
The study identified 134 future applications of which 108 of the
more important ones were investigated through the full iterative
process of the study. In the course of the investigation, 77
unique data processing capabilities were cited. Since many of
the capabilities were required by more than one application, a
total of 368 application-capability relationships were evaluated.
A detailed description of the study procedure with samples of
questionnaires will be covered later in Section V.
c
I.3
II. GENERAL RESULTS
(
From the final results of the study it is possible to devAlop
a number of subjective views of the future of data processing.
They are:
•
•
An overvim-r of the uses of data processing in 1985
An identification of general trends in applications
A view of pervasive capabilities required by the
applications
Detailed views of application areas (See Section III)
Although these are subjective representations of the future,
they can be justified by the nature of the data produced by
the Delphi Technique. In general, there is a high level of
confidence associated with the quantitative data (dates,
magnitudes, etc.) because of the controlled interchange and
iteration of the technique. In addition, since the interchange is recorded, a large body of subjective data giving
the reasons and considerations associated with the responses
is collected. This can be used directly by the investigator
without having to derive it from the raw data.
(
THE 1985 WORLD OF DATA PROCESSING
By the year 1985 the use of computers will have reached into
almost all areas of business, governmental, and private life.
~lost everyone will feel they enjoy the benefit of living in
the age of the computer. A closer look discloses that it is
also the age of communications, for it will be the marriage
of computers to widespread, high speed switched communication
networks that will have brought the computer into such pervasive use.
Home terminals will have passed the point at which one family
in a hundred has one installed. These terminals will be initially installed to provide custom tailored entertainment
and news. By 1985, with switching capability added to the
CATV cables, a multitude of services will be offered to the
terminal owner by entrepreneurs. The services include: home
computer assisted instruction, control of home appliances,
monitoring burglar and fire alarms, home banking and financial
services, customized periodical printouts, and access to information data banks. The result will be an enhanced life style.
Businesses will have also taken advantage of data communication
networks. Many day-to-day transactions will be effected by
direct communication between computers. Businesses will purchase access to information maintained centrally by information
utilities where the size or volatility of the information makes
11.1
it impractical for the individual business to maintain it themselves. Examples include: patent searches, freight rates,
automobile and driver registration files and many others.
Industry associations will have taken over monitoring and coordination of business operations affecting multiple membe1 :
of an industry. For example, intermodal freight shipments will
be centrally scheduled and tracked. Reservation systems will
be interconnected so that reservations for travel, accommodations,
and entertainment can be made through one intermediary. In
general, day-to-day business transactions will be facilitated.
Computer/communication systems will have moved into the business
office. Many secretarial services will be done through terminals
which provide editing, hyphenation, proofreading and also serve
as input to electronic filing and electronic intra-office mail
services. With the advent of the home terminal, white collar
workers and executives will find it possible to accomplish their
work using the terminal as a home work center. All of the
necessary work materials, references, and services as well as
conference type calls could be made available at the home.
Routine office functions will thus be facilitated.
Point of transaction terminals to service individual department
stores, supermarkets, etc. will have become commonplace. By
1985 the additional step of interconnecting these terminals to a
central facility for coordination and switching to financial
institutions will have brought the "Cashless/Checkless Society"
into reality in 20 percent of the metropolitan areas. A
consumer would be able to effect a purchase by presenting his
identification card at the point of sale. His demand deposit
account balances or lines of credit are checked, debited, and
the store's accounts credited while he makes his purchase no
matter how many different financial institutions are involved.
The result is additional services for the consumer.
Automation will have replaced many of the routine tedious tasks
or tasks demanding great precision and accuracy in industry.
Robots having the sensing and manipulatory capabilities of humans
will be in use in factories. These robots will have the additional asset of being on line to the factory computer which can
change their functions on demand. In fact some plants will have
become wholly automated running essentially without human intervention. These plants will be highly adaptable, capable of
changing their products and product mixes in response to actual
and forecasted demands. Such plants may even accept orders for
products requiring new design, for by 1985 computer systems
capable of creative engineering design will be in existence.
These systems drawing on engineering practice data, design rules,
and previous designs will create new products based on customer
requirements. The systems will carry the design results through
to produce manufacturing specifications and procedures including
instructions for automated machinery. Human drudgery will have
been partially relieved.
II.2
"
\
(-/-
Design is not the only area where computer creativity will exist.
Today's much discussed Hanagement Information Systems will have
become a reality but with the added capabilities of creating
strategic plans from external and internal environmental data
and models of enterprise and econony. Scientific researcl. will
be assisted by computer systeI'1s which monitor research plans
and results, and develop hypothesis of underlyinq relations and
principles. Thus, the power of men's minds will have been
extended.
'fhe computer I s power and capacity will have been turned to solving
social ills facing the nation and the world. Urban and
suburban planning ~oIlill be automated to suqgest the best mixes
of people, jobs, recreation and aesthetic qualities. Efforts
will be made to protect the ecology through monitoring, prediction,
and control of pollution sources and new product development.
Traffic probleMs and accidents will have been alleviated by
tr2ffic control, dynamically scheduled mass transit, and automobiles equipped with collision avoidance.
Nationwide job banks
will attack unemployment and welfare will be centrally coordinated to assure fair coverage for all who require it. The end
result is a better world in which to live in.
man~'
In summary, future applications will have progressed beyond the
normal extensions of today's applications to encompass most
areas of business, governmental and even areas which improve
the quality of life.
APPLICATION TRENDS
Three major new trends were identified in the forecasts of
future applications:
•
•
•
Tactical and strategic Planning
The use of the Computer to Solve Social Ills and
Problems
Home TerMinals
In addition, an on-going trend of penetration of data processing
into new areas was discerned.
1.
Tactical and Strategic Planning
Historically data processing has grown from the
subapplications (sorting, collating, tabulating,
etc.) of unit record days through individual
applications (payroll, inventorv control, accounts
receivable, etc.) of the first computer systems to
the integrated operational systems being installed
today to take care of the day~to-dav operations of
a business.
11.3
The panel indicates that during the period 1975-1980
computer systems will begin to play a significant role
in first assisting and then completing tactical and
strategic planning via models of operations, enterprises, the economy, political regions and even whole
countries.
2.
The Use of the Computer to Solve Social Ills and Problems
Hany of the applications rated most highly by the
panel were associated with the utilization of computers
to attack social ills and problems. Six applications
focused on pollution prevention and protection of the
ecology. Public safety was addressed through applications to minimize aircraft and automobile accidents,
and to provide better crime protection through rapid
information interchange. Unemployment has generated
the need for nationwide job banks to match jobs to
job seekers and to level pockets of unemployment.
Urban and suburban and regional planners will have
data banks of land usage and models to plan the best
use of land resources balancing such factors as:
labor and job mix, transportation costs, tax base,
recreational facilities, school requirements, environment pollution, aesthetic qualities, etc.
Most of these will come about either as government
services or via government subsidy of private enterprise.
3.
Home Terminals
The widespread advent of Cable Area Television (CATV)
in 1980-1985 will provide high speed, high capacity
two-way communication channels into the home. The
initial impetus will come from the entertainment
field as extended television offerings. The communication capability will be exploited to allow program
transmission on individual request. Once the communication capability exists and is incorporated into a
switched network, entrepreneurs will provide a widerange of services to the home consumer~ these will
include: home education via Computer Assisted
Instruction (CAl), selective printout of newspaper or
magazine articles, home shopping services, automatic
meter readings, burglar and fire alarm monitoring, and
the use of the terminal as a home work station.
II.4
The home terminal would become a modular device priced
within the reach of the majority of families. Basically
it would be available as a television-type device with
simple keyboard or push button input. Additional cap~
bilities could be added to provide hard copy output,
light pen input, sensor inputs and analog and digital
control output.
4.
New Areas of Use of Data Processing
In the 1975-85 time period several industries will
experience their first significant use of data processing. This will come about either because of the
emergence of new industries, or improved cost justification or data processing capabilities which open
new areas. The following is a partial list identified
by the panelists:
Agriculture
oceanography
Information Retrieval Data Banks
Labor Negotiations
Information Utilities
MAJOR REQUIRED CAPABILITIES
Many of the forecasted data processing capabilities were found
to be pervasive over a number of applications. The major
capabilities can be categorized as follows:
1.
Data Base
The need for large data bases was recognized by the group
with 64 out of the 108 applications requiring it. The size
data base required ranged from ten billion to a trillion
bytes.
A second aspect of data bases was identified, that is, the
necessity to provide the functions to build, maintain,
and use large data bases with large numbers of access
for reading and updating. These functions would include:
•
Data Independence - making it possible to
change the data base organization without
changing the programs.
•
Dynamic Reorganization - the ability to
reorganize all or part of the data base
dynamically to provide better overall
response for a particular application.
II.5
2.
•
Data Base Protection - protection of the
data base against inadvertent or malicious
alteration or destruction.
•
Dynamic Recovery - the ability to dynamically
correct errors or loss of the data base.
•
Data Base Security - the ability to monitor
and control access to the data base so as
to permit only authorized access to the data.
Communication Network Systems
Almost half (52) of the applications suggested require
large numbers of terminals with many requ1r1ng the
interconnection of computer systems into networks for
information interchange. Simple information retrieval
utilities providing remote access to voluminous or
volatile data can involve computer-to-computer data
requests. The "Checkless/Cashless Society" requires
hundreds of thousands of terminals and hundreds of
computer systems interconnected. One terminal purchase
might require access to three or four systems to check
lines of credit, make the necessary loan to the buyer,
debit his account, and credit the seller's account all
while the buyer is standing at the point of sale
terminal.
3.
Sensing and Controlling
Sensing of environments, the progress of operations,
and in some cases providing closed loop control was
involved in 29 out of the 108 applications. These ranged
from relatively small systems to diagnose car repairs to
worldwide weather and pollution monitoring networks for
input into weather and pollution forecasting systems.
Control systems ranged from automated warehouses, which
are beginning to be installed now, to robots capable of
performing by 1985 many of the sensing and manipulating
operations of a human. The scope included self-contained
systems to take control of a car to prevent a collision to
large systems for control of takeoff and landings at a
major metropolitan airport.
4.
Software
The types of applications forecasted require that the
logic directing function will have to take on new
levels of capabilities resembling functions that have
been thought to be reserved for human intelligence.
II.6
/
f
Programs will be asked to create original work, such
as new engineering designs. To accomplish this,
systems will make use of such capabilities as:
•
Multi-Attribute Pattern Hatching -- comparing
patterns of variables and selecting ones that
most nearly match.
•
Discovery Systems -- systems capable of selective
browsing through text and data arrays leading to
the formulation of underlying principles and
relationships.
One major use of these kinds of program capabilities will be
to relieve the programming load itself. Many of the complex
systems forecasted will require the automatic generation of
programs and data base organizations.
('
II.7
(
III.
DETAILED APPLICATION RESULTS
The applications forecasted by the panelists can be groupnd
into areas of data processing uses. Host of the areas identify
applications unique to an industry, others represent identifiable
areas which appear in many industries, \'1hile some new applications are identified with the consumer. Listed below are the
application groupings:
AGRICULTURE
AIRLINES
BUSINESS ASSISTANCE
COHPUTER ASSISTED RESEARCH
DISTRIBUTION & RETAIL
ECOLOGICAL
EDUCATION
FINANCIAL & INSURANCE
FREIGHT TRANSPORTATION
GOVERNMENT SERVICES
IIOHE TERHINALS
INFORMATION SYSTEr-1S
INFORMATION UTILITIES
JUDICIAL & LEGISLATIVE
MANUFACTURING & PROCESS
MEDIA
HEDICAL
OFFICE ASSISTANCE
PUBLIC &~D PRIVATE TRANSIT
UTILITIES
The detailed results of the study are organized into the
application groupings. In this way the reader may review
only those groups for which he has a particular interest.
Each application grouping contains a scenario derived from the
applications, data, comments and reasons provided by the respondents, and two detailed data presentations.
III.l
The first presentation lists the applications included in the
grouping in chronological sequence. Figure 3.1 is a sample
of one application "1nflight Monitoring and Diagnostics of
Aircraft" in the Airlines grouping. The distribution of
respondent date forecasts are illustrated by a percentage
histogram. i.e., 65.5% of the respondents forecasted an
implementation date in 1975-1977.
AIRLINES
1970-71 72-74
1007550• 250P.C.
UONITORING ANT)
S OF AIRCRAFT
0.0
0.0
75-77
78-80
II-I---~ ----I
65.5
31.0
81-85
LATER
1.7
1.7
Figure 3.1
In addition, the application values are presented in terms of:
Impact on Society, Profitability to the Implementor, Usefulness
to the Public, and Will Not be Implemented. Figure 3.2 indicates
how the application values would appear for the above application.
IMPACT PROFITABLE USF.'fi'UL
,(-!ILL
ON
TO
TO
NOT BE
SOCIETY IMPLEMENTOR PUBLIC IMPLEMENTED
1. 98
2.62
3.07
Figure 3.2
111.2
0.19
0.0
The value numbers are derived by assigning ",eights to the
response categories and computing averages. The weights
assigned were:
Weight
Hajor
5
Weight
Very
5
Weight
Very
5
Weight
Impact on Society
Significant
3
Little
1
No
a
Profitability to Implementor
Hoderate
f'larginal
3
1
Usefulness to Public
Moderate
Marginal
3
1
Will Not be ImpleMented
-3
Thus the highest possible rating ,vould be five.
The second data presentation consists of a detail sheet per
application containing the complete description of the
applications, capabilities and accelerating and retarding
factors as evaluated by the respondents. Final response
counts are listed for all areas addressed with counts for
those respondents who identified thenselves as experts listed
separately.
In the controlled interchange betvJeen respondents, response
patterns \'lere indicated bV consensuses. For the study purposes
consensus was defined as the interquartile range i.e., the
range containing 50 percent of the respondents with 25 percent of the respondents above and 25 percent below. On the
detail presentations consensuses are represented by horizontal
dashed lines with verticals at each end.
In addition, the
median response (50 percent above and 50 percent below) is
also shown by a third vertical line between the end verticals.
For required data processing capabilities the respondents were
asked to measure the relative magnitude of any quantifiable
data relative to the original suggested quantity.
This
\'las done by giving them the opportunity to check fields to
c
III.3
identify whether the quantity was O.K. or should be some
multiple of ten greater or leSs. In the detail printouts
these responses are identified as shown below:
>lOx-
10x-
O.K.
10x+
100x+
1000x+
>lOOOx+
. . .. /
The first is read as "greater than 10 times less," the second
"10 times less, etc.
,
1II.4
./
AGRICULTURE
By 1981-1985 computers will begin to find direct use in
agriculture. The first to take advantage will be large
agri-businesses.
.
For example, in this period five percent of the irrigated
farms will use computerized systems to monitor soil
moisture content and to automatically regulate frequency and
intensity of irrigation in order to maximize quality and
quantity of the crops.
The advent of the home terminal in 1980-1985 will put the
power of the computer within the reach of the average farmer.
One percent of the farmers will subscribe to services capable
of recommending agriculture product mixes taking into account
consumer requirements, transportation costs, forecasted prices,
local environment, etc. Also the service would provide accounting, inventory control, tax computation and other administrative
services necessary to manage a successful farm.
c
111.5
AGRICULTURE
1970-71 72-74
APPLICATION TITLE
AUTONATIC IRRIGATION CONTROL
AGRICULTURF. INPORMATION AN!'
ADMINISTRATION SYSTEM
1007550250P.C.
1007550250P.C.
75-77
78-00
81-85
.---I -
1-1-1
0.0
0.0
0.0
24.5
LATER
NEVER
0.0
0.0
60.4
~I-I-I
7.4
81. 5
1. 51
2.68
1.98
-0.53
1. 72
2.64
2.09
0.47
I,--~
11.3
3.8
-----j
0.0
II/PACT PROFITABLE USEPUL
WILL
ON
TO
TO
NOT BE
SOCIETY IUPLEf.fENTOR PUBLIC IMPLEMENTED
9.
,
1.9
H
H
H
0\
(
'i
c)
4~~~IQ4fIQ«~~~Q~I~fIQl
Automatic Irrigation Control -- The installation of systems in 5 percent of the irrigated farms to sense
the moisture content of the soil and to automatically regulate the frequency and intensity of irrigation
required to maximize quality and quantity of crops.
.
lM~4Ql_4«Q_l4~Q~
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
WILL
PROFITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
NOT BE
VERY MODERT MARGINAL
VPRY MODERT MARGINAL IMPLEMENTED
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MAJOR
CROUP TOTALS
0
EXPERT TOTALS 0
20
2
1970-71
CROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
LITTLE
SICNIF.
72-7~
o
0
o
0
NO
26
7
3
2
12
1
78-80
13
75-77
o
28
9
2
~
6
22
17
133
10
1
LM~'~M~~f4XIQ«_~4X~
81-85
32
LATER
NEVER
6
2
1-1-1
o
2
300
1--------1-1
B~~QrB~Q_Q4~4~1'lfll~
A. Ten-times improvement in sensor equipment.
NECESSRY ASSET USEPUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x10xO.K.
10x+
100x+ 1000x+
GROUP TOTALS
31
9
2
2
1
0
3
33
2
0
0
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
1-1-1
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
B. Availability of moisture demand model programs from a service organization. $200 per month.
NECESSRY
("
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
8
ASSET
31
1--1-1
USRFUL SOME USE NO NRED
3
0
1
>10x0
10)(0
O.K.
35
1-1-1
c
III.7
10)(+
2
>1000)(+
0
100)(+ 1000)(+ >1000)(+
0
0
0
d~~L4k4rrQ4_a~~a4rftlQI
Agriculture Information And Administration System -- The utilization by 1 percent of the farmers of a
system providing terminal access to a data bank of agricultural information and business and management (~
assistance. The system would be capable of recommending agriculture product mixes taking into account
food mix requirements, transportation costs, price forecasts, local environment, and ecology that would'~~
result in optimum profit production. It would also provide accounting, inventory control and other
administrative assistance required to manage a successful farm.
rMf4kr-4Ia_l4~Ql
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
WILL
PROFITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
NOT BF:
VERY MODERT MARGINAL
VERY MODERT MARGINAL IMPLEMENTED
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MAJOR
GROUP TOTALS
3
EXPERT TOTALS 1
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
SIGNIF.
NO
LITTLE
20
25
6
4
4
1
0
0
78-80
4
75-77
0
1970-71 72-74
0
0
13
26
10
7
2~
3 5 2 2 6
81-85
44
LATER
7
2
9
o
l~~~~~~r4rrQI_adr~
1-1-1
0
14
1
NEVJi:R
5
1
0
1
1-1-1
BIQQlB~a_'4~d~r~rrr~
A.
Massive communication interface
~O,OOO
lines.
NECESSRY ASSET USF:FUL SOME USE NO NEED >10><25
0
0
0
13
8
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
1----------1-1
EXP,r.;RT TOTALS
2
2
0
5
0
0
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
B. Voice input and response capability.
10"13
O.K.
26
1--------1-1
2
4
10"+
1
0
10()><+ 1000"+ >1000x+
0
0
0
0
0
0
1--------1-1
NECESSRY ASSET USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10"10"O.K.
10"+ 100,,+ 1000"+ >1000"+
1
12
18
11
6
CROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
1----------1---------1
F:XPERT TOTALS
02322
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
C. Inexpensive television type terminal with keyboard and light pen entry and hard copy output. $25 per
~.
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
r;;XPF:RT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
23
ASSF:T
16
USEFUL SOME USE NO NF:ED >10"4
0
3
0
1
0
1
0
1------1-----1
4
3
1----------1-1
10x0
0
O.K.
35
2
1- 1- 1
5
1-1-1
IIL8
10"+
0
100"+ 1(00)(+ >1000)(+
0
0
0
()
0
0
AIRLINES
Airlines, perhaps
rely on computers
quently, they may
ventures into new
more than any other industry, have come to
in the main stream of their business. Consebe more disposed than others to make early
application areas.
Automatic ticket vendor systems are already being tested by
airlines. These systems dispense tickets for destinations
designated by pressing a button. Payment is by credit card.
Bv 1977 at least one airline will have expanded this capability
to include: fare quotation, checking and boarding control,
and will have installed it in all of its airport terminal areas.
Airlines are beginning to let contracts for installation of
computerized baggage control. 1978-80 will find similar
installations at 20 percent of the nation's commercial airports.
One factor that may discourage installation of these two applications is continued concern about hijacking and bombing and
the difficulty of monitoring unmanned facilities.
Airlines will also move to improve aircraft availability by
installing onboard systems to monitor and diagnose inf1ight
performance. Malfunctions are read out to the crew and either
stored or telemetered for ground maintenance scheduling and
analysis. Once in the maintenance shop, qround checks will be
accomplished by computer. Twenty percent of the aircraft
will use inf1ight monitoring by 1977 and 20 percent of tile
commercial airlines t-vi11 have computerized ground diagnostics
by 1980.
III.9
Alr1LrNES
1970-71 72-74
APPLICATION TITLE
IN-PT,TGlIT !10NI'J'ORING M!T)
DIAGNOSTTCC OF AIRCi7APT
10075SO25-
I
1-1--------1
0-
P.C.
AUTOMATED AIRLINE: T'ASSF:lJCF:F?
SERVTCES SY:;TE't
78-80
75-77
0.0
0.0
6S•5
:'5-
cAUTOMA'f'ET) AiRCF?AFT DIAr;!lOETICS
H
H
H
....
o
0.0
55.0
NEVER
1.7
1.7
10075502S0P. C.
0.0
0.0
23.7
1.7
18.3
G.7
I-I-,L
74.6
70.0
1. 98
3.07
2.62
0.19
1. 58
2.98
2.97
0.1~
1. 57
3.38
2.76
0.05
1. 54
2.95
3.13
-0.20
I
38.3
1- 1- I
0.0
IMPACT PROFITABLE USEFUL
f'ILL
NOT BE
ON
TO
TO
SOCIETY IMPLEMENTOR PUBLrC IMPLE!1F.NTE;r)
0.0
0.0
0.0
lOO7550250P.C.
AUTOMATED BAGGAGE CONTROL
1-1--------1
0.0
LATER
I
31.0
1007550-
P.C.
81-0S
1.7
0.0
0.0
I
8.3
0.0
1.7
Automated Aircraft Diagnostics -- The accomplishment by 20 percent of the commercial
checks of aircraft by computerized diagnostic systems.
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
LITTLE
SIGNIF.
16
36
3
10
REASONS POR IMPLEMENTA'l'ION
WILL
PROFITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
USEFTIL TO PUBLIC
NO'!' BF:
VERy MODERT MARGINAL
VERY MODP.RT MARGINA!' If"''PJ,'Rf'''P.N'l'ED
NO
17
8
1
141
11
3
78-80
75-77
14
1970-71 72-714
0
0
of their ground
IMf4'r_44~_l4uQE
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MAJOR
GROUP TOTALS
3
EXPERT TOTALS 0
airl~nes
41j.
5
0
16
1
26
16
8
3
1
o
LMfu~~~4r4frQ4-~4r~
81-85
1
LATER
NEVER
0
0
0
0
1-1-1
0
2
0
0
11
1-1-1
H~QULa~~_'4f4~LulrL~~
A. Extensive data base of malfunction experience.
NECESSRY ASSET USEPUL SOME USE NO NF:P.D >10x10x37
13
2
0
0
GROUP TO'l'ALS
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
9
:1
0
0
0
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSP.NSUS
1--1-1
B. Installation of proper sensing equipment on commercial aircraft.
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
46
1--1-1
11
1--1-1
ASSET.
UBEPUL BONE USE NO NEF:D >10x-
3
1
0
1
o
o
o
o
(
III.ll
10x-
O.K.
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
O.K.
100x+ 1000x+ >10nox+
~EE'lQ4rla«_~l£QBlftlQ«
Aut mated Airline Passener Services S $tam -- The installation by one airline of a sys~em capable
~~
o prov1d1ng are quotat1ons, issuing tic ets, and handling check-in and boarding contrbl. The
system would be operated by agents during heavy traffic periods and self-operated by the passenger·,.__,/
at other times.
I~E~Qt_~~~_!~~Ql
WILL
REASONS POR IMPLEMENTATION
N(lT B P.
USEPUL TO PUBLIC
PROPITABT.E TO IMPLP.MENTOR
VERY MODERT MAPGn!AL IMPLP.MENTT?D
VF:R! MODERT MARGINAL
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MAJOR
GROUP TOTALS
1
EXPERT TOTALS 1
11
75-77
33
o
0
o
0
78-80
23
20
10
3
2
12
3
28
13
I~f'lM~~r4tIQ«_Q4t~
81-85
LATER NEVER
4
0
0
1-1--------1
17
10
3
39
17
14
8
8
2
36
15
21
1970-71 72-74
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
NO
LITTLE
SIGNlP.
6
2
0
0
1-1--------1
B~gQlR~~_Q~f~alultll2
A. Mass data storage of 10 billion bytes.
NECESSRY ASSET USEFUL SOME
15
3
33
GROllP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
\--1---------1
9
10
1
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
1----------1-1
B. Ticket taking terminal would also accept
USE NO NFJED >10)(0
0
0
0
0
0
10)(13
O.K.
36
10)(+
0
100)(+ 1000)(+ >1000)(+
0
0
0
1--------1-1
6
13
0
0
0
0
1--------1-1
airline credit cards.
100)(+ 10(0)(+ (171000)(+
10)(+
O.K.
NECESSRY ASBRT USEFlIL SOME liSE NO NF:PD >10)(200
38
13
CROllP TOTALS
CONSP.NSUS
1--1---------1
o
o
15
7
1
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
C. Public opera table display terminal for fare quotation, ticket sales and fare collection.
NECFJSSRY
CROUP TOTALS
CONSP.NSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
ASSET
37
14
111
R
1--1-----,----1
[JSl?FIJL SOMl? liSP NO NERD >10)(100
1
o
o
1--1---------1
III .12
10)(-
O.K.
100)(+ 1000)(+ >1000)(+
Automated Baggage Control -- The availability at 20 percent of the commercial airports of systems for
automatic pickup, control, loading, unloading, and delivery of passenger baggage.
l«f4at_41~_l4~QI
f!TJ,L
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTA~ION
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
NOT BR
PROF'ITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
VERY MODliJRT MARGINAL
VP.R" MODERT MARCIN/IL IMPLF:MT<:JJ'J'RD
IMPACT ON SOCI?'!'I
MA,TOR
2
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS 2
LITTLF:
SIGNIF'.
16
36
7
7
NO
5
2
39
11
11
7
22
6
8
0
24
9
4
8
2
0
4~fkl~11X4XlQ«_Q4Xi
r.ROUP T()TALS
CONSENSUS
EXPRRT TOTALS
C()NSENSTIS
75-77
11
1970-71 72-74
o
1
78-80
42
81-85
5
LATER
NEVER
0
1
0
0
1- I -I
o
4
1
13
0
1--------1-1
Ri~Ql~I~_a4f4~LklXli~
A. Standardized baggage labeling and label readers.
10x+ 100x+ 1000><+ >1000x+
10xNECF.SSRY ASSRT" USRFUL SOME (lSP' NO NEP.D >10xO.K.
r.ROUP TOTALS
41
2
0
0
1
CONSRNSUS
1- - I-I
r;;XPERT TOTAl,S
0
0
1
13
2
CONSENSUS
1--1 -I
B. Ten-fold increase in baggage handling equipment - conveyors, sensing, loaders, etc.
(
NRCESSRY ASSP.'" us P.F UL SOM? USE NO NERD >10xr:ROUP TOTALS
35
0
14
1
1
0
C()NSF:NS[JS
1--1---------1
r;;XPp.RT T(),[,ALS
'l
0
1
0
0
5
CfJNSRNSlIS
1--1---------1
C. Computer controlled baggage sorters for check throughs.
flECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
F:XPF.RT TOTALS
CONSF.NSl/.')
30
ASSP.T
16
1--1---------1
9
6
1--1---------1
lISr;;F'lJL SOHR liSE NO NRED >10Kl~
0
1
o
o
1
II!.lJ
10x0
O.X.
35
10x+
7
100x+ 1000x+ >10()Ox+
0
0
0
1-1- I
0
7
5
0
0
0
1-1--------1
10x-
O.K.
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
read out to
.rt1.f!.~L!.lilL14.lt.Y.E.
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
l1AtlOR
GROUP TOTALS
13
EXPERT TOTALS
6
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
A.
SIGNIF.
9
2
e
1970-71 72-74
o
0
o
NO
38
75-77
38
78-80
18
1-1--------1
0
15
l;tfL.iUE.!lXdUQ.fLl!.4x.E.
81-85
1
7
LATER
1
NEVER
1
0
0
0
1-1--------1
aE.ay..ra~l!._~dEd~.r~U.~
Ten-fold improvement in current telemetry equipment.
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
B.
LITTLE
19
10
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
flILL
PROFITABLE TO IMPLENENTOR
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
NOT BE
VERY MODERT MARGINAL
VER:! MODERT MARGINAL IMPLEMENTED
21
45
9
21
29
20
5
9
11
6
11
11
3
0
10
3
ASSET
35
1--1-1
15
1- -1-1
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >l'Ox-
5
0
2
1
2
0
1
1
10x7
2
Reduction in size of airborne computer systems by a factor of 10.
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
0
0
ASSET
32
USEFUL SO!.fE USE NO NEED >10" -
12
I--I---------{
13
4
1--1---------1
10x-
2
5
1
9
1
2
1
5
O.K.
37
1-1-1
13
1-1-1
O.K.
35
1-1-1
12
1--------1-1
111.14
10x+
0
0
10"+
1
100"+ 1000x+ >1000Xi0
0
0
0
0
0
100x+ 1000x+ >1000"+
0
0
0
("
0
0
0
0
7
BUSINESS ASSISTANCE
(
Sophisticated general business assistance applications in the
areas of tactical and strategic planning are on the verge of
widespread implementation. Simulation of cash flow by
corporations may become common with 20 percent of the larger
companies using it by as early as 1972-74 and certainly no
later than 1975-77.
Investment models for predicting security markets, analyzing
potential investments and recommending buying and selling will
be used by one out of ten of the more sophisticated banks,
insurance companies, and investment firms by 1975-77.
In 1978-80 econometric models will be generally available
and the majority of large companies will employ simulations
of their enterprises to make strategic decisions.
The two
applications may be coupled so that econometric models
provide environmental input into enterprise simulations.
i10deling and simulation efforts by companies will offer an
entrepreneural marketing opportunity for groups experienced in
model development or with pattern matching and discovery type
software systems.
(
In the 1978-80 period industrial and military organizations
will use computer assisted instruction to accomplish 20
percent of their on-the-job training.
In the same period
20 percent of the larger corporations will be using the
computer in such subjective areas as career path planning,
matching personality traits, basic capabilities, ambitions,
education, job evaluations, etc. to map career opportunities.
By 1981-85 five p~rcent of ele businesses and labor unions
will use sophisticated models of economic and business cause
and effects for simulation and evaluation of alternative
proposals in labor/management negotiations.
c
III.1S
IWSINESS ASSISTANCE
CASH FLOW SIMULATION
INVEST.'.fF:NT MODELS
1007550250P.C.
1-1-1
0.0
I
SO-
1007550250P.C.
65.5
24.1
10075250P.C.
ECONOMETRIC MODELS OF THE ECONOMY
75-77
1970-71 72-74
APPLICATION TITLE
0.0
250P.C.
~
C\
ENTERPRISE SINULATION
31.6
13.8
0.0
0.0
10.6
1.5
78.8
so-
0.0
15.5
6.1
I
0.0
14.3
1.6
57.1
0.0
L
1-1--------1
1007550250-
P.C.
1.7
3.5
70.7
1-1-1
250CAREER PATH PLANNING
NEVER
flILL
IMPACT PROFITABLE USEFUL
ON
TO
NOT BE
TO
SOCIETY IMPLEUEfiTOR PUBLIC IMPLEMENTED
1. 40
3.40
1. 98
0.10
1. 84
3.60
2.63
0.00
2.27
2.92
2.24
-0.14
3.10
3.23
3.28
0.11
2.09
3.38
1.70
0.30
2.37
2.35
2.34
0.24
2.29
2.38
2.57
0.48
0.0
0.0
1-1-1
0.0
10075-
P.C.
0.0
8.6
SO-
.
LATER
L_--,
COlfPUTER ASSISTE.') INSTRUCTION - ON 10075THE JOB TRAINING
H
H
H
81-135
1-1--------1
59.6
5.3
78-80
27.0
3.0
I
0.0
4.9
0.0
47.5
26.2
0.0
0.0
'------.
1-1-------- f
0.0
0.0
14.8
6.6
COMPUTER-ASSISTED LABOR/.'fANAGElfENT 10075NEGOTIATIONS
50~
250P.C.
c
'\
)
I
1--------1-1
0.0
0.0
0.0
/
26
.I~
50.9
13.2
9.4
/
"-
"-
/
I
)
4ffLI'dXlQ!_Qg~'HlfXIQ~
Career Path Planning -- The ulitization by 20 of the Fortune 500 Companies of a computerized system for
matching personality traits, basic capabilities, ambitions, education and training as they relate to job
opportunities. This would require a much more objective view of "career path" planning ~han is now being
done by most major corporations.
MAJOR
GROUP TOTALS
7
EXPERT TOTAliS 7
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSRNSUS
IMPACT ON
socu:n
SIGNIP.
LITTLE
lHf4QX_d~Q_ldLQg
NO
78-80
75-77
3
1970-71 72-74
0
0
10
5
2
0
22
11
30
13
R~ASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
USEPUL TO PUBLIC
PROFITABLE TO IMPLP.MENTOP
VF:RY' 'MODERT MAPGINAL
VERY MODPPT MARGTNAL
25
14
0
81-85
29
LATER
16
11
2
11
9
6
24
13
JMP T,F,I.fEN'l'!m
1B
5
B
?
IHf'~Hg!X4XIQ!_QdX~
I - I -'- - - - - - - I
0
21
WTLL
PTO'!' BE
10
N.TiJVER
9
4
4
1
1--------1-1
H~aaIH~Q_QdE4~rLrXIl~
A. Multi-attribute pattern matching.
NECESSRY ASSET USEPUL SOME USE NO NEED >10X10xO.K.
CROUP TOTALS
34
10
5
1
1
CONSP.NSlIS
1--1---------1
EXPERT TOTALS
16
5
4
0
1
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
B. Input language for description of traits, ambitions, capabilities, etc.
NECF:SSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONS7I:NSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
(
c
35
ASSR'!
12
USP-PlIL SOMP.
WJF, NO
NEED >10x-
4
1
0
3
1
°
1--1---------1
15
7
i--I---------I
III.16
10x-
O.K.
10"+
100"+ 1000x+ >1000x+
4ff~l~lQI_Q!~~HlfflQI
Fo~tune
Cash Flow Simulation -- The utilization of 20 percent of the
of their corporation cash flow.
lMf4~l_4~-Y4~~!
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
WILL
PROFITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
NOT 8E
VERY MODERT MARGINAL
VERY MODERT MARGINAL IMPLEMENTED
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MAJOR
GROUP TOTALS
0
EXPERT TOTALS 0
NO
LITTLE
SIGNIF.
39
18
16
10
500 Companies of a,simulation
21
13
6
q
33
18
7
1
3
3
27
27
13
g
2
1
LMf~~rll4~IQI_Q4l!
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
75-77
38
78-80
5
1-1-1
o
20
6
LATER
81-85
0
o
2
1-1-1
NEVER
1
0
1
o
B!Q~IH!Q_'4f4~ILlllr~
A.
Ten-tiMes improvement in simulation techni.ues.
NECESSRY ASSET USEFUL SOME USE NO NE1W >10x0
0
0
GROUP TOTALS
10
26
13
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
0
9
6
10
0
EXPERT TOTALS
0
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
8. Model development service.
10X8
5
O.K.
31
1-1-1
11
10x+
1
0
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
0
0
0
0
0
0
1--------1-1
NECESSRY ASSET USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x10x100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
O.K.
8
28
10
GROUP TOTALS
3
0
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
EXPERT TOTALS
7
11
6
1
o
CONSENSUS
1----------1---------1
C. Interactive terminal system with complex search and interactive pattern matching for use in
building, evaluating and optimizing the model.
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
10
7
ASSET
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x-
33
7
1
0
13
5
0
0
1--1-1
1----------1-1
III .17
10x-
O.K.
10x+
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
d~~uIQAXIQ!_Q~gQftI~XIQ~
Come uter Assisted Instruction - On the Job Trainini -- The replacement of 20 percent of on-the-job
tra1ning hours in industrial and military organizat1on by computer assisted instruction.
IM~daX_dEQ_EA,e~
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MAJOR
GROUP TOTALS 21
EXPERT TOTALS 3
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
B
o
o
2
75-77
1970-71 72-74
o
1
o
NO
LITTLE
17
SIGNIF.
43
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
WILL
PROFITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
NOT BE
VERY MODERT MARGINAL
VERY 'fOlJERT MARGINAL IMPLEMENTED
27
40
7
34
29
9
3
4
78-80
52
7
B
0
5
7
o
0
IM~'~M~~XAXIQ~_lldX~
81-85
4
LATER
2
NEVER
0
1- t-I
1
10
1
1
0
0
1- t-I
daa~~gAXIllg_AllQ_~~Xdglllllg_EdaXQg~
A.
Successful utilization in 10 large corporations without union objection.
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
B.
(
78-80
17
3
81-85
1
0
LATER
0
0
NEVER
1
1
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74
lB
6
31
7
0
5
6
0
0
3
75-77
14
2
78-00
12
1
Bl-85
3
0
LATER
II
2
NEVE.?
2
0
g~aQI~IQ_QdEd~lkIXr~g
Course preparation language to reduce the preparation cost by a factor of 5 over today's CAI systems.
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CO NSElvSUS
B.
75-77
22
4
Federal subsidy.
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
A.
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74
30
19
8
0
7
4
4
0
3
1
NECESBRI
33
ASSET
17
1--1---------1
6
2
1--1---------1
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10)(3
1
0
1
1
0
1
10)(6
O.K.
41
1-1-1
0
0
B
10)(+
4
2
I-I -I
100)(+ 1000)(+ >1000><+
0
0
0
0
0
0
Terminal with display, full. keyboard, light pen function keyboard, and video/audio output $200 Eer
month.
CROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
NECESERI
32
ASSET
21
1--1---------1
5
4
1------1-----1
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10)(1
0
1
1
0
0
1
0
10)(2
1
O.K.
47
1-1-1
8
1-1- I
10)(+
0
0
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
0
0
0
0
0
0
&~~~IQ&XIQM_~E£Q~lfXIQ!
~f!!¥:~~~~~~~;:;:;~~::;::~~T.:~r~o=-t=i=-.a=-t.:::;i==o~ns=s -- The availabilit,i;.es in 5 percent of the labor/
enable the parties and/or arbitrators
IMfdQX_&!!2_l&kQE
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MA.TOR
GROUP TOTALS
a
EXPERT TOTALS
2
SIGNIF.
23
a
A.
o
0
o
0
75-77
78-80
o
14
30
11
15
4
24
7
15
5
10
o
IMfl!l!MEliXdXl.Qli_!24,Z'.E
81-85
27
LATER
1--------1-1
o
15
4
10
6
1--------1-1
NEVER
7
5
1
0
BEQQl.BEQ_Q4fdEr~1.Z'.l.E~
Search engine 10 times today's capabilities.
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
B.
9
2
o
a
1970-71 72-74
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
NO
2
LIT'l!LE
27
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
WILL
PROFITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
NOT BE
VERY MODERT MARGINAL
VERY MODERT MARGINAL IMPLEMENTED
13
ASSET
20
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x8
1
3
1
1----------1---------1
4
6
1----------1-1
1
0
1
0
10x2
1
O.K.
36
1-1-1
8
1-1-1
10x+
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
2
1
0
0
1
1
o
o
Mass storage of 100 billion bytes.
CROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
NECESSRY
11
4
ASSET
24
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEP.D >10x9
2
1
4
1--1---------1
7
1----------1-1
2
0
0
III.lS
2
10x31
1-1-1
6
1-1-1
O.K.
6
1
10x+
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
1
0
0
0
1
o
o
o
Econometric Models of the Economy -- The utilization by 20 percent of the large corpo~ations, large
banks, and government agencies of econometric models of the economy to predict business growth, wages,
and inflation for guidance in business planning and fiscal and monetary policy decisions. The models
could provide direct input of external environment to enterprise simulation.
LMEA'~_A~~_lAtQg
WILL
REASONS FOR IMPLEMF.NTATION
NOT BE
PROFITARLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
VERY MODERT MARGINAL
VTSRY MODERT MARGINAL IM.PLEMT?NTED
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MAJOR
GROUP TOTALS 10
EXPERT TOTALS 4
SIGNIF.
NO
LITTLE
22
27
2
1IJ.
15
1
14
10
34
18
12
10
6
6
23
12
22
12
3
2
LMEtgME~XAXIQl_~Ar~
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
78-80
41
75-77
1970-71 72-74
o
0
8
o
0
6
81-85
LATER
0
0
5
o
o
1-1-1
21
NEVER
9
1-1-1
B~gQIB~~_QAEA~ILIXI~~
A.
(
Interactive terminal system with complex search and interactive pattern matching for use in building,
evaluating, and optimizing the model.
NECESSRY ASSET
12
31
GROUP TOTALS
1--1-1
CONSENSUS
7
18
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
1---1-1
B. Deterministic models.
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x-
NECESSRY ASSET
37
11
GROUP TOTALS
CONSRNSUS
1--1---------1
19
8
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
C. Model development service.
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10X-
2
3
1
1
1
1
NECESSRY
46
ASSRT
o
o
26
O.K.
10x-
O.K.
10x+
100x+ lo00x+ >1000x+
10x-
O.K.
10x+
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x-
1
USEPUL SOME USE NO NEED
2
1
0
0
1
1
0
0
1--1-1
10x-
101
NECESSRY ASSJi:.T USEFUL SOME USE NO N8ED >10x1
4
1
8
35
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
1--1-1
0
1
20
2
5
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
1--1-1
D. Data banks of economic factors available as input.
GROUP TOTALS
COnSp.NSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
O.K.
1--/-1
III.20
>1 OX-
Aff~IQ~ZIQ!.Q~~QaIZl!Q~
Enterprise Simulation -- The utilization by 50 percent of the Fortune 500 companies of models of their
enterprises. The model would be capable of testing varying ~g~nizations and policies under varying
external enviro~ents.
I~E4kX_4Ra_E4~QE
WILL
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
NOT BE
PROFITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
USEPUL TO PUBLIC
VERI MODERT MARGINAL
VERI MODERT MARGINAL IMPLEMENTED
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MAJOR
GROUP TOTALS
8
EXPERT TOTALS 1
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
A.
30
37
5
3
36
27
9
720
3
o
75-77
9
1970-71 72-74
o
1
o
NO
LITTLE
SIGNIF.
78-80
36
8
o
l~fkEUE~X~XIQ!_~dX~
81-85
17
LATER
1-1--------1
5
3
2
1----1-----1
0
6
24
34
224
NEVER
0
0
0
0
RE2UIHE~_kd~~~I~IXIE~
A model development service.
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
5
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
0
CONSENSUS
B.
Mass storage of 100
ASSET
34
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x8
1--1---------1
6
0
1--1--1
4
2
o
2
10x-
O.K.
10x12
O.K.
10x+
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
billion bytes.
NECESSRY ASSET USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10xCROUP TOTALS
6
30
11
3
3
1
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
EXPERT TOTALS
0
5
1
0
1
1
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
C.
Advanced data base management system.
100)(+ 1000)(+ >1000x+
28
1--------1-1
1
5
1--------1-1
o
o
0
0
o
o
o
./
\"
NECESSRY
ASSET
lISEFUL SOUE USE NO NEED >10x-
lOx -
O.K.
100x+ 1000x+ >1000)(+
501
GROUP TOTALS
36
10
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
o
o
o
EXPERT TOTALS
6
1
CONSENSUS
1--1- I
D.
Interactive terminal system with complex search and interactive pattern matching for use in building
evaluating and optimizing the model.
10x100x+ 1000)(+ >1000)(+
O.K.
NECESSRY ASSET USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x301
CROUP TOTALS
38
12
CONSENSUS'
1--1-1
7
o
o
EXPERT TOTALS
1
o
CONSENSUS
1- -I -I
E. A data bank of national and international economic. population, pqlitical, etc. factors as source
for input of the external environment.
CROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
NECESSRY
13
ASSET
36
USEFUL SOfIE USE NO NEED >10x2
1
0
0
0
0
10x-
O.K.
10)(+
100)(+ 1000)(+ >1000x+
1- -- 1- 1
3
5
\----------1-\
III.2l
c
4fekl'4tlQ!_QI~'BlfXlQ«
Investment Models -- The utilization by 20 percent of the investment firms, banks, and insurance companies
Of'lLnvestment models. The models will be used to forecast the security markets, analyze potential
investments against general criteria of asset selection, and make recommendations for buying and selling
securities.
LMeA'X_A«Q_Z4~~
WILL
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
NOT BE
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
PROFITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
VERY MODERT MAFGINAL IMPLP.MP.NTED
VERY MODERT MARGINAL
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MAJOR
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS 1
..
NO
LITTLE
SIGNIF.
2 ..
12
3
1
36
16
20
12
3 ..
5
10
33
17
17
1
3
lB
8
0
0
LMe~IMI!X4tlQ~_Q4~
1970-71 72-74
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
o
3
o
3
75-77
3"
78-BO
18
81-85
2
1-1--------1
19
4
LATER
1
NEVER
0
0
0
0
I-I -I
HI2QlBEQ_'4e4~l~lXLE~
A. Interactive terminal system with complex search and interactive pattern matching, for use in
building, evaluating, and optimizing the model.
NECESSRY ASSET USl?FUL SOME USE NO NP.ED >10"2
1
33
9
GROUP TOTALS
1--1-1
CONSFNSUS
1
0
2
13
5
EXPF:RT TOTALS
1--1 -I
CONSF:NSUS
B. Discovery system to determine the underlying relationships.
10"-
O.K.
10"+
100"+ 1000"+ >1000"+
NTiJf:ESSRY ASSET IIr;p.PUL SOMF: USE NO NP.ED >10" 2
7
3
24
12
GROIIP TOTALS
CONSJiNSUS
1---1--1
I~
1
1
10
5
EXPP.RT TOTALS
1--1---------1
CONSENSUS
C. Model development service.
10"-
O.K.
10"+
100"+ 1000"+ >1000"+
USP-PUL SOME USE NO NEED >10"-
10"-
O.K.
10"+
100"+ 1000"+ >1000"+
..
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSP.NSlIS
P.XPP.RT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
7
4
ASSET
33
1--1 -I
13
6
2
1
2
1
1
1--1-1
III. 22
COMPUTER ASSISTED RESEARCH
1978-80 will find the beginning of the utilization of computer
systems to monitor, coordinate and assist in highly creative
areas such as scientific research. Such systems will take
advantage of the computers ability to retain and refer to
large amounts of data and software with the capability of
discovering underlying principles and relationships. The
scientist will use the system to record his research plan
and the results as they develop. The system will assist him
by suggesting apparent relationships for his evaluation.
Practical applications will include: computer coordinated tests
of medical drugs for effectiveness and long range side effects
and monitoring of research for adverse ecological effects.
By 1985 complete systems will exist for assistance in whole
scientific disciplines particularly in newly developing areas
such as oceanography. An oceanography system would correlate
data drawn from ocean explorations, satellite observations,
and scientific studies to predict locations of undersea
mineral resources and to provide development data for farming
of fish and other sea crops.
(
III.23
ASSISTED RESEARCH
"'~!~IPUTER
APPLICATION TITLE
1')70-71
CONPUTER r.OOP"JNATEn TES7'.;!ir; OF'
:~!E.'!)ICAL
72-7!~
P.C.
/!ONI'FO.~INC
FOJ~~
!0.0
0.0
0.0
0!'. C.
CO!.fPU'!'F.'? ASSISTE!J OCEM/DOPAPHY
31.4
PHO:"'ITABIE
TO
2.95
2.37
3.51t
0.25
0.0
3.21t
2.ltl
2.98
0.41
2.87
2.59
2.89
-0.50
0.0
I
I~-~
...--~
0.0
0.0
7.8
1-1--------11..-----......
45.1
37.3
5.9
3.')
1007550-
.. --··"-1
250P.C.
....
USE"'UL
Tn LI
TO
NOT BE
SOCIETY IUPLE.'1ENTOH PUBLIC TMPLENENTEtJ
DfPACT
Of!
1 --
68.6
F:COLOGICAIJ 1007525 -
IV
NEVER
,11..---,
50-
H
H
H
LATER
100-
50-
EFFEC7S
81-B5
75-
DRUGS
250RESEARCH
78-~O
75-77
0.0
0.0
7.4
I--------I-I~~
1t0.7
48.1
3.7
0.0
4ffkla4XLQ!_QleaBlfXlQ!
Computer Assisted oceanoq~aPhY -- The existence of systems to correlate data drawn from ocean
explorations, satellite~servations, and scientific studies to locate undersea mineral r~sources
and to provide development data for farming of fish and other sea crops.
'
lMf4aX_4LQ_r4kQ~
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
WILL
PROFITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
NOT BE
VERY MODERT MARGINAL
VERY MODERT MARGn!AL IMPLP.MENTElJ
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MAJOR
GROUP TOTALS 13'
EXPERT TOTALS 2
NO
LIT'lLE
SIGNIF.
26
0
0
~
12
1
72-7~
75-77
11
25
2
~
10
0
19
17
3
~
10
0
9
1
£Mf~lHllt4XlQ!_~4ll
1970-71
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
o
0
o
0
78-80. 81-85
22
26
~
LATER
NEVP.R
2
0
0
0
1--------1-1
2
~
2
1-----1-----1
4aa~klB4Xl!a_4!~Bll4B~l!a_l4axaBe
A. International oceanographic resource planning agreement.
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74
GROUP TOTALS
EXPP.RT TOTALS
10
1
24
5
1
75-77
0
0
11
1
NECESSRY ASSP.T USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x~
26
13
1
~
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
~
1
0
1
EXPERT TOTALS
1
CONSENSUS
1--1-----------------1
B. Mass storage of 100 billion bytes for the data.
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
78-80
9
1
81-85
LATER
7
NEVER
o
~
o
o
3
B~QlB~~_a4f4~l~lXlle
A. Discovery system.
(
0
0
6
ASSET
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >lOx-
15
25
6
1
0
1
1
5
0
1
0
1
1----------1-1
1--1-1
10x-
O.K.
10x+
lOOx+ 10nox,," >lOOOx+
10x5
O.K.
10x+
100x+ 1000x,," >1000x+
0
1
0
0
3~
1-1-1
3
1-1-1
!II.25
1
0
0
1
0
~~~~~'~llQI_QI~aRl~~Q~
Computer Coordinated TestiZlg of Medical Drugs -- 'l'b;e implementation of a mandatory comprehensive testing
Proqram for drugs and food pr@ucts·prlor t.o their. release to general use. The program , would be
administered and/or coordinated by the government and would be aimed at detecting long-tange adverse side
effects as well as determininq drug effectiveness. The coordination and analysis would be computer assist~
(
l~f~al_4IQ-Z~'QI
WILL
REASONS POR IMPLEMENTATION
PROF'ITABLE TO IMPLEME~!TOR
USEPUL TO PUBLIC
NOT BE
VERY MODERT MARGINAL
VERY MODERT MARGINAL IMPLEMEN'f'P:D
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MAJOR
GROUP TOTALS 15
EXPERT TOTALS 4
LITTLE
SIGNIP.
A.
10
25
15
451
3
o
78-80
35
75-77
1970-71 72-74
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
.NO
9
3
30
7
o
el
o
o
0
o
29
20
4
920
5
2
lM~'IMI!l~Xlal_Q4XE
81-85
16
LATER
1-1-..,------1
7
4
NEVER
0
0
0
0
1-1--------1
~1~ul~l~a4f4~l'lXlE~
Mass data storage of one trillion bytes.
10xNECESSRY ASSET USEFUL SOME USE NO NF:ED >10x0
29
3
3
12
22
GROUP TOTALS
10
CONSENSUS
1--------1-1
1--1-1
0
5
EXPERT TOTALS
3
6
0
1
2
CONSENSUS
1-1-1
1----------1-1
B. Hulti-attribute pattern matching.
O.K.
NECESSRY ASSET USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10)(34
1
1
GROUP TOTALS
B
1
CONSENSUS
1--1-1
7
0
0
EXPERT TOTALS
1
2
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
C. Discovery system to discover secondary and tertiary effects.
10x-
O.K.
10x-
O.K.
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSF:NSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONS ENS liS
30
ASSET
12
1--1---------1
6
3
1--1---------1
USEPUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x1
1
1
o
1
o
III.26
10x+
8
0
2
0
10x+
100x+ 1000x+ >1000)(+
0
0
0
0
0
0
100x+ 1000)(+ >1000)(+
100)(+ 1000)(+ >1000)(+
.
4EE~IQ4~IQ!_Q~~BIE~IQ!
Research Monitoring for Ecologica~Y;.Jfects -- The utilization of computer. systems in 20 percent of the
Fortune 500 Companies to monitor stages of developmental research to pred1ct the ecological implications
relative to the manufacture, use, and disposal of potential products.
I~E4QX_4!Q_E4~Q~
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MAJOR
CROUP TOTALS 19
EXPP:RT TOTALS 5
SIGNIF.
9
2
1
1970-71 72-74
CROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
NO
LITTLE
28
o
0
o
0
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
WILL
PROFITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
nOT BE
VERY MODERT MARGINAL
VERY MODERT MARGINAL IMPLEMENTED
1
o
75-77
78-80
23
4
8
29
13
21
20
8
8
1
5
1
3
3
1
2
I~E~~~~!~4XIQ!~Q4ll
81-85
19
LATER· NEVER
3
2
430
0
1-1--------1
1
1-1--------1
4"~lt.E.IU.U!~L4li.Q_BE.X.4BT.llli.'Lf4'lQB~
A. Legislation enforcing pollution control.
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO P:FFECT 1970-71 72-74
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
15
20
6
0
8
I;
4
0
0
3
75-77
18
78-80
81-85
o
o
8
1
4
LATER
o
o
NEVP.R
o
o
A. Discovery system.
(-
NECESSRY ASSET USEFUL BOME USE NO NEE:D >10"GROUP TOTALS
30
10
3
1
2
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
I;
EXPERT TOTALS
2
1
0
0
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
B. ~lass storage of ;t00-.E..~llion .PLt~_~.
GROTfP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
COllSE:NS lJS
NECF.SSRY
12
ASSET
23
US?FUL SOM? USP: NO NERD >10"9
0
1
3
0
0
1----------1-1
1
3
1--1---------1
3
10lC-
O.K.
10"+
100lC+ 1000"+ >1000"+
10"-
O.K.
10x+
1
100"+ 1000"+ >1000"+
0
0
0
9
23
1--------1-1
III.27
DISTRIBUTION AND RETAIL
The computerization thrust in the retail market will be toward
point of transaction terminals for capture of sales data, credit
check, and credit sales entry. Within the next four years the
first successful implementation will be completed. This will
counteract the recent adverse publicity caused by the failure
of some pilot systems. By as early as 1975 and certainly before
1980 there ~·lill be such systems in 5 percent of the department
stores. The terminals will probably use magnetic stripe credit
cards for user identification but may incorporate more positive
identification methods such as voice-print, fingerprint, or
retina-print.
By 1980 the low markup stores such as supermarkets will have gone
to terminals for checkout. These systems would sense identifying
marks on the product or as £n the case of produce be identified
by keyboard entries. Scales would have direct read-out capability.
Prices are determined from latest price lists and the customer
receives a printout of description and prices of his purchases.
Inventory control and automatic reorder follo~'l from the data
capture.
(
In another significant step forward distribution industry will
begin to accept computer-to-computer orders and use automated
warehouses and freight terminals to speed their distribution.
(~
I1I.28
nrSTHrBUTION AND RETAIL
IMPACT
1970-71 72-74
APPLICATION TITLE
RETAiL TF:R!fINAL SYSTE."fS
75-77
10075250-
AUTOMATED WARF:HOUSEE:
0.0
3.1
P.C.
29.7
SO-
IV
\0
250-
P.C.
WILL
PROFITABLE USEFUL
TO
TO
NOT BE
SOCIETY IMPLEMENTOR PUBLIC IMPLEMENTED
ON
2.01
3.98
2.51
0.00
0.0
0.0
1. 11-8
3.35
1. 74
-0.19
1. 55
2.95
2.53
0.11-11-
1. 38
2.90
1. 59
-0.63
0.0
I
1
1-1--------1
0.0
1.7
58.3
35.0
1-1-1
0.0
0.0
111-.5
5.0
0.0
0.0
l
711-.2
10075-
H
(
67.2
1007550250-
P.C.
AUTOMATED FREIGHT TERMnlALS
NEVER
10075250-
H
H
LATE.'?
1-1--------1 1
SO-
SUPERMARKET Cnf:CKOUT SYSTE!fS
81-05
I
SOP.C.
78-80
6.5
3.2
1.6
I
1-1--------1 I
0.0
0.0
1.6
!'- ,
65.6
29.5
3.3
0.0
()
Automated Freiqht Terminals -- The automation of 1 percent of the freight terminals. Based on teleprocessed
manifests of incoming shipments the terminal system schedules the docks and storage facilities optimumly.
Loading, unloading, IIQvement and storage within the terminal is done automatically by'.&uf1.omated equipment
under computer control.
IU~d~X_d~Q_fd~~K
IMPACT ON BOCIE'!'!
IfAJaR
GROUP TOTAL:J
3
EXPERT TOTALS
1
GROUP TOTAL:;
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSRNSUS
LITTLE
NO
17
'16
7
15
11
6
BIGNU'.
1970-71 72-74
0
0
0
75-77
78-80
40
1
0
REASONS FOR I!IPLEMENTATION
"'ILL
PROFITABLE '!'O IMPLEMEN'!'OR
USE?UL TO PUBLIC
NOT BE
VER Y MODER'!' MARGINAL
VER Y MODER'!' UARGINAL IMPLEMENTED
26
33
G
5
25
29
17
10
9
4
2
8
12
5
lUE~~u~aX~XIQ~_QdX~
81-RS
18
LA'!'ER
2
1-1--------1
17
1
6
NEVER
0
1
0
1-1--------1
4'a~~~~d~I~Q_~ll2_~~!&~~laQ_Ed£XQ~£
A. Establishment of a guaranteed annual income removing most of labor's objections to automation.
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFPECT 1970-71 72-74
8
29
13
0
4
6
13
4
0
2
75-77
10
5
B. Establishment of tax incentives for investment in automation.
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
ABSOLUTE POSSIRLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74
15
23
11
0
4
9
12
2
0
3
78-80
13
3
81-85
78-80
6
3
81-85
4
1
LATER
5
NEVER
2
4
1
3
LATER
2
NEVER
5
3
6
2
A. Network control.
I(
GROUP TOTALS
CON:JP.N:;U:;
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSU.<;
'f1.
NErESS.?!
33
ASSr.T
14
1--1---------1
16
3
3
1
1
2
0
1
1--1---------1
10"-
O.K.
10"+
100,,+ 1000x+ >1000"+
10x-
o.y..
10"+
100"+ 1000x+ >1000"+
10x-
O.K.
10,,+
3
100x+ 1000"+ >1000"+
0
0
0
Improved algorithms for resource leveling and scheduling.
GROUP TOTALS
COllSl::lla1.'S
P.Xl'ERT TOTALS
CONSP.NStfS
NErESDRY
1'1
Ar: ..7P'!'
GROUP T()1'AT,S
CONSENSUS
EXPP.R.'T' TM'AU;
CONDF.NSlID
i1ass
U:JEFUL .'10m: IJSE NO NEED >10x1
1
0
31
1----------1-1
a
12
/----------1-1
c. nelativoly high r:eliai.:ility
n.
l/!JE?UL SOME USE NO N'P.En >10,,-
NECE";SRY
34
1ft: tfFT
15
1--1---------1
15
3
1--1---------1
1
-
1
0
no outages of over one hour.
USEPUL SOUE USE NO NP.ED >10"2
0
a
1
:2
0
1
:;>
1-1-1
0
15
1-1-1
storage of !QQ..Jli ld..i~n2Ytel!'
NEr.ESr.:R Y
GROUP TOTALS
CONSP.NSUD
P.XPE[~T TOTAL.':
co NaENS(/S
11
4
ASSET
3(;
1- -1-1
11
1-- f - I
USEFUL iJOUR USE N(1 NEED >10"It
0
1
1
3
39
0
1
1
lOx 111
O.K.
31
1--------1-1
II
12
1--------1-1
III.30
1
10,,+
0
0
0
100~+
0
0
0
0
1000"+ >1000,,+
0
0
0
0
4rekl~drlQ&_~I£'RlEXlQi
Automated Warehouses
The conversion of 1 percent of the warehouses in Fortune 500 Companies to
computerized control of stacking and picking, and movement to and from.COks and/or ma~ufacturing
floor.
lUEd'X_d~~_rd~~~
IMPAZT ON SOCIETY
MAJOR
GROUP TOTALS
4
EXPERT TOTALS 2
SIGNIF.
LITTLE
NO
46
16
12
31
37
5
8
23
32
5
14
14
2
4
10
12
18
9
75-77
35
1970-71 72-74
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
o
o
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
flILL
PROFITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
USEPUL TO PUBLIC
NOT BE
VERY MODERT MARGINAL
VERY MODERT MARGINAL IMPLEMENTED
1
78-80
21
lue~E~Ell=dXIQll_lldXE
81-85
3
1-1--------1
17
0
5
2
11
LATER
1
NEVER
0
0
0
0
1-1--------1
A. 25 percent reduction in cost of picking and stacking units.
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74 75-77 78-80 81-85
GROUP TOTALS
10
29
10
0
5
17
7
2
EXPERT TOTALS
7
14
5
0
2
8
3
o
B. Establishment of tax incentives for investment in automation equipment.
LATER
NEVER
3
3
3
2
ABSOLUTE POSB.TBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74 75-77 78-80 81-85 LATER NEVER
GROUP TOTALS
19
22
9
0
5
10
5
3
5
8
EXPERT TOTALS
12
12
2
0
2
5
2
2
3
4
C. Establishment of guaranteed annual income removing most labor's objections to automation.
GROllP TOTAl,S
EXPERT TOTAl.S
ABSOl.UTE PO::SIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74
27
14
1
6
75-77
1lI
0
3
12
6
0
1
8
78-80
9
81-85
MTRR
?
NEVER
5
2
5
3
1
1
A. Advanced data base management.
NECESSRY
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10)(-
10)( -
O.K.
10)(+
100,,+ 1000x+ >1000x+
ASSET
USEFUl. tlOI·fF: USE NO
lOx 1
O.K.
10><+
0
100><+ 1000x+ >1000x+
0
0
0
I~
GROUP TOTALS
30
10
6
2
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
EXPERT TOTALS
13
3
3
5
1
CONSENSUS
1--1-----------------1
n. Relatively high reliability. No outages of greater than one hour.
NECESSRY
CROUP TOTALS
CONBENS[!S
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
27
fl r,F:n >10><-
17
6
0
1
0
10
'-I
0
1
0
1--1---------1
9
'.
ASSET
I - - - - - - - - - - 1-·1
1
'-13
1-1-1
19
1-1- I
III.31
0
0
0
_7
0
'~
~~E~Z~~XrQ~_~E~~grfrrQll
Retail Terminal Systems -- The implementation in 5 percent of the department stores of a system to
capture sales data at the point of transaction and,integrate it into systems which process inventory
control, billing, purchasing, sales analysis, cred1t check, etc.
rME~QX_d~~_rd~~~
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
TYILL
PROFITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR ,
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
NOT BE
VERY MODERT MARGINAL
VERY MODERT :\1ARGINAL IMPLEMENTED
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MAJOR
GROUP TOTALS
9
EXPERT TOTALS
1
CROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
A.
SIGNIF.
LITTLE
26
42
3
8
1970-71 72-74
o
2
o
NO
5
40
42
0
14
37
6 6 0 2 5
o
75-77
43
78-80
19
rll~~EUE~rdrrQ~_Q~XE
81-85 LATER NEVER
1-1-----:...--1
9
0
4
1-1--------1
0
0
0
0
0
0
dQQE~E&drrNQ_~llQ_~EXdg~raa_rd~rQ~~
Successful implementation of one installation to counteract the recent failures in this area.
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
A.
18
3
33
9
4
0
Advanced data base management system.
NECESSRY
(
o
o
25
4
ASSET
3
1
24
75-77
17
5
2
78-80
3
1
81-85
0
0
LATER
NEVER
0
0
0
0
~'~~r~EQ_'dE~~r~ZrLE~
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x2
1
1
10x-
10x+
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x1-
NECESSRY ASSET
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x10xO.K.
lOx ...
GROUP TOTALS
37
14
3
0
1
0
0
39
9
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
7
2
1
0
0
0
0
5
2
CONSENSUS
C.
Positive user identification (fingerprint, voice-print, retina-print, etc.)
100x ... 1000x ... >1000x+
0
0
0
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
11
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
1
CONSENSUS
D.
Label or price code
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
8.
33
18
8
3
1--1---------1
0
1--1---------1
0
O.K.
0
Point-of-sale terminal for $5-$25 Eer month.
1--1---------1
1-1-1
1--1---------1
1-1--------1
llECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
27
ASSET
21
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x17
5
2
0
0
0
10x-
O.K.
10><+
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
10x-
O.K.
10x+
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
1--1---------1
5
4
1--1---------1
1
0
scanners.
ASSET
27
1----------1-1
3
B
1----------1-1
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEETJ >10x1
0
0
0
0
0
III .32
Supermarket Checkout Systems -- The installation of systems in 1 percent of the supermarkets of systems
to automatically enter the identification of items purchased. The system would price~the item according
to the latest price lists and deplete inv.entory.
IMPACT
MAJOR
GROUP TOTALS
~
F.XPERT TOTALS 2
SIGNIF.
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
3~
~
15
72-7~
75-77
o
0
o
0
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
PROFITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
VERY MODERT MARGINAL
VF.RY MODERT MARGINAL
NO
LITTLE
1~
1970-71
I~f4£X_4!~_14~Qi
SOCIETY
O~
17
10
7
1
78-80
11
1
12
6
27
11
IMPL1?MP.NT~D
16
4
9
?
I~f~~~~«f4fLQ«_a4f~
81-85
~6
9
29
11
WILL
"'OT BE
LATER
NEVER
4
2
1
0
0
1
1-1-1
1~
6
1--------1-1
l!~9.!LIll~~_'4f4l!Ul.fl.f1a
A. Scanner for labels or price codes.
10x+ 100x+ 1000x+ >lI)I)Ox+
10xNECESSRI ASSET USP-FUL SOME TlSP, NO NEED >10xO.K.
OROUP TOTALS
42
0
0
0
11
CONSRNSUS
1--1-1
4
0
EXPERT TOTALS
14
0
0
CONSENSUS
1--1,..1
B. Checkout terminal to display prices as read and printout item description, price
per unit measure,
total price, etc. ~l,OOO Eurchase.
NECESSRY
OROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
38
ASSET
13
USEPUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x1
0
0
0
1--1---------1
13
1--1-1
3
1
0
0
III.33
0
10x-
o
o
O.K.
44
1-1-1
14
1-1-1
10x+
1001<+ 1000x+ >10nox+
2
o
0
<')
o
o
o
')
ECOLOGICAL
Ecological problems are currently a matter of national concern.
Much effort will be spent in the future endeavoring to solve
these problems and the computer will playa major role. However,
with the exception of pollution monitoring networks in general
use in 20 percent of the metropolitan areas by 1975-77, the
majority of the applications will require scientific development
and will not become available until1 1978-1985. These include:
•
r-ionitoring
ecological
results of
20 percent
of research and development and use of
balance calculations to predict the
the introduction of new products, by
of the large corporations.
•
The extension of computerized weather forecasting
to allow calculations of pollutant concentrations
so that air pollution can be predicted.
The use in 20 percent of the metropolitan areas of
computer analysis of waste products so that they can
be broken down into harmless components and either
recycled or safely disposed of.
(
Air pollution prediction will require processors capable of
30 million instructions per second and worldwide neblOrks of
sensors'. Many of these applications such as research monitoring
and ecological balance calculations require data processing
systems capable of discovering underlying principles and
relationships.
III.34
ECOLOGY
APPLICATION TITLE
POLLUTION MONITORING SYSTEMS
75-77
1970-71 72-7'+
1007550250-
P.C.
0.0
78-BO
~
1- I- - - -- - -'- II
3.6
49.1
40.0
LATER
81-B5
5.5
NEVER
1.8
P.C.
0,0
0.0
7.8
7550250-
ECOLOGICAL BALANCE CALCULATIONS
2.36
3.75
0.15
3.24
2.41
2.98
-0.41
2.84
2.40
2.98
0.90
3.11
1. 78
2.86
3.22
1. 98
3.25
0.66
3.00
1. 56
2.48
1. 59
1-1--------1 I
45.1
37.3
5.9
3.9
CO!1PUTERIZED WASTE D.TSPOSAL PLANTS 100-
P.C.
3.46
0.0
RESEARCH .'!ONITORING FOR ECOLOGICAL 10075EFFECTS
50250-
IMPACT PROFITABLE USEFUL
WILL
ON
TO
NOT BE
TO
SOCIETY IMPLEMENTOR PUBLIC IMPLEMENTED
0.0
1.8
0.0
1-1--------1
54.4
I
33.3
5.3
5.3
100-
-1.
07
75-
H
SO-
.
I-(
H
250-
\.oJ
VI
P.C.
AIR POLLUTION PREDICTION
0.0
10.9
58.2
I
21. 8
9.1
I
0.0
0.0
0.0
~ I-Iu----u,l
1.9
1007550250-
P.C.
(j
0.0
1007550250-
P.C.
ECOLOGICAL PLANT SCHEDULING
0.0
1-1--------1
0.0
0.0
0.0
t
'\,
0.0
60.4
35.8
1.9
1-1--------1
54.5
21.8
23.6
)
4ff~4'4f4Ql_~E~Qa4ff4Q~
Air Pollution Prediction -- The existence of a global circulation model of the atmosphere. The model
would include the horizontal hydrodynamics and thermodynamics of the atmosphere so that'calculations
of pollutant concentrations can be made for a given input source of pollutants. This would provide
a dynamic air pollution prediction.
(-'"
LHf4~f_4lQ_l4'U~
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
WILL
~!OT BE
PROFITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
VER! MODERT MARGINAL
VERY MODERT MARGINAL IMPLEMENTED
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MAJOR
GROUP TOTALS 19
EXPERT TOTALS 2
NO
LITTLE
SICNIF.
8
20
17
121
1
8
1
29
4
o
31
10
7
230
13
4
LMf~~MElX4flQl_Q4X~
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
o
78-80
1
75-77
1970-71 72-74
o
0
o
o
0
o
81-85
32
LATER
NEVER
19
1
1-1--------1
6
2
0
1-1--1
4~~I~la4XllQ_4l~_a~X4aQllQ_l4£fQa~
A.
Legislation enforcing pollution control.
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT T(JTALS
12
2
20
6
3
2
0
0
B
75-77
16
2
3
78-80
7
0
81-85
2
0
LATER
NEVl?R
0
0
0
0
g~~Ulg~Q_Q4fd~l'lXl£~
A.
Processor speeds of 30 MIPS (Billion)
NECESSRY ASSET USEFUL !,OME
32
3
GROUP TOTALS
11
CONSENSUS
1--1-1
2
'2
EXPERT TOTALS
1
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
B. aassive communication interface - 10,000
(
USE NO NEED >10x0
0
0
0
0
NECESSRY
ASSET
USF:FUL SOME USE NO NERD >10x-
13
1
0
0
0
'2
3
1
0
0
0
1----------1-1
39
10x+
2
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
0
0
0
10x+
3
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
0
0
0
10)(+
6
100)(+ 100()x+ >1000x+
1
0
0
lines to monitor a sensor network.
33
1--1---------1
O.X.
1-1-1
NECESSRY ASSET USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x0
0
30
15
1
0
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
0
0
1
3
EXPERT TOTALS
2
CONSENSUS
1------1-----1
C. Mass storage of 100 billion ?ytes.
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXP'RRT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
10x0
10x4
O.K.
33
1-1-1
10lC1
0
O.X.
35
1-1-1
4
1-1-1
III.36
0
1
0
0
computerized Waste Disposal Plants -- The existence in 20 percent of the metropolitan arealil of plants
designed to analyze complex chemical waste products and break them down under computer control.
lME~gX_d~Q_r~LQE
REASONS POR IMPLEMENTATION
WILL
PROFITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
NOT BE
VERY MODERT MARGINAL
VERY MODERT MARGINAL IMPLEMENTED
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MAJOR
GROUP TOTALS 19
EXPERT TOTALS 3
39
15
A.
2
o
3
o
0
o
0
o
75-77
1
1970-71 72-74
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
NO
LITTLE
SIGNIF.
78-80
31
15
35
12
36
18
4
2
4
0
3
1
0
l~E~EMENXdXlQM_lldXE
81-85
19
LATER
NEVER
3
3
1
0
1-1--------1
o
4
2
1-1--------1
Federal subsidizing.
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
A.
24
2
19
2
20
7
3
0
0
0
6
2
75-77
13
1
78-80
12
1
81-85
2
LATER
1
0
0
NEVER
2
0
R~gljIREn CAEABILITIES
er-compn~er-con~~oI.
Advanced analytical instrumentation un
NECESSRY ASS. T USEFUL [JOME
40
9
GROUP TOTALS
2
CONSENSUS
1--1-1
EXPERT TOTALS
0
5
1
CONSENSUS
1--1-1
B. Discovery system for' real time analysis
USE NO NEED >10x0
0
0
0
10x-
O.K.
10x+
100,,+ 1000x+ >1000x+
10x-
O.K.
10x+
100x+ 1000"+ >1000,,+
of the waste.
r'
GROUP TOTALS
CONSEN.r;US
EXPERT TOTAl,S
CONSENSUS
NECESfJRY
39
ASSET
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x-
7
2
0
1
0
0
1--1-1
4
1--1---------1
3
1
III. 37
~
y
4e~~I'4XIQ~_~~g'EleXlQ~
Ecological Baranee Calculations -- The existence of s¥s7ems cap~ble of c~lculating in ad~ance the
regional resu ts of such actions as "over use of fertl.ll.zer, whl.ch wash 7nto ponds. and" rl.vers,
which causes excessive growth of algae, which chokes the waterways and kl.lls the fl.sh.
l~e~'X_~~~_f~~U~
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MAJOR
GROUP TOTALS 2~
EXPERT TOTALS ~
SIGNIF.
A.
(
NO
12
1
o
o
3
1970-71
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
LITTLE
~O
72-7~
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
WILL
PROFITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
NOT BE
VERY MODERT MARGINAL
VERY MODERT MARGINAL IMPLEMENTED
75-77
o
0
o
o
0
o
73-30
6
9
26
21
36
15
2
2
1
5
1
7
°
29
2
I~E~l~l~XdXIQ~_~dXl
31-35 LATER NEVER
32
12
5
1-'--------,
2
2
1--------,--------1
3
0
ll~QUllllQ_CdPd~IklXIl~
Discovery system to discovery the seconoary ana tertl.ary effects.
NECESSRY ASSET USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10xGROUP TOTALS
32
13.
3
1
1
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
EXPERT TOTALS
5
1
o
1
o
CONSENSUS
1--'---------1
B. Mass storage of 100 billion bytes.
10x-
O.K.
10,,+
100,,+ 1000,,+ >1000"+
NECESSRY ASSET USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10"GROUP TOTALS
12
23
7
0
2
1
CONSENSUS
1- -., -I
EXPERT TOTALS
2
Lf
1
CONSENSUS
1----------1-1
C. Search engine 100 times today's capabilities.
10"·
O.K.
10,,+
3
100,,+ 1000,,+ ;.1000"+
0
10"+
100,,+ 1000,,+ >1000,,+
°
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
NECESSRY
9
2
ASSET
26
1--1---------1
5
1----------1-'
°
0
2
~
0
°
0
10"29
1-1-1
III. 38
23
1- I-I
°
USEFUL 30UE USE NO NEED >1o,,12
8
4
1- , - I
O.K.
8
0
1
0
°
°
0
°
°
°
0
°
Ecological Plant Scheduling -- The establishment of a nationwide system to schedule the operation of
pollution-prone piants based on weathE!l: forecasts.
(
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
flILL
PROFITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
NOT BE
VERY MODERT MARGINAL
VERY MODERT MARGINAL IMPLEMENTED
8
7
1
2
o
o
78-80
75-77
1970-71 72-74
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
NO
LITTLE
o
0
o
o
0
o
-
'~-j
IUZ4'X_4~a_E4~Q~
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MAJOR- SIGNIF.
GROUP TOTALS 20
45
EXPERT TOTALS 7
13
~
o
26
9
13
2
32
10
13
2
2
0
43
12
IME~~M~~XdXIQ~_a4XE
81-85
30
LATER
NEVER
12
13
1-1--------1
o
11
6
4
1-1--------1
d"~~EH4Xl~Q_dll2_gEXdglll~Q_EdQZQg~
A.
Availability of accurate
seven~day
weather forecasts.
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74
12
0
GROllP TOTALS
9
23
3
10
5
EXPERT TOTALS
0
1
1
B.
Legislation enforcing pollution control.
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74
GROUP TOTALS
12
25
8
2
12
10
5
4
2
EXPERT TOTALS
3
A.
75-77
6
3
79-80
16
6
81-85
3
0
LATER
75-77
11
3
78-80
81-05
0
LATER
7
2
NEVER
4
1
2
2
NEVER
1
0
0
1
1
g~~QLg:~_~4Ed~lklXIE~
Input from nationwide weather forecasts.
NECESSRY ASSET USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10"42
GROUP TOTALS
0
1
0
2
CONSENSUS
1--1-1
0
0
F.XPERT TOTALS
16
2
1
CONSENSUS
1- -I - 1
B. Mass storage of 100 billion bytes.
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT .TOTALS
CONSENSUS
30
ASSET
11
1--1---------1
13
4
1--\---------\
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10"3
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
10,,-
O.K.
100" + 1000,,+ >1000,,+
'\
"
10,,G
O.K.
27
10,,+
5
1-I -I
3
12
1-\-1
III.39
10"+
3
100"+ 1000><+ >1000><+
0
0
0
0
0
0
,
/
Pollution Monitoring
metropolitan areas.
sources of pollution
of areas with mobile
Systems -- Installation of a pollution monitoring system in 20 percent of the
The systems would monitor air, water and noise pollution, detecting and locating
before they become irritants. Fixed sensors would provide continuous monitoring
sensors used to isolate sources of pollution.
l«f4'X_4«~_E4~
REASON$ FOR IMPLEMENTATION
WILL
PROFITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL Tn PUBLIC
NOT BE
VERY MODERT MARGINAL
VERY MODERT MARGINAL IMPL7I:MEN'J'En
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MAJOR
GROUP TOTALS 21
EXPERT TOTALS 6
LITTLE
SIGNIF.
NO
1
6
31
8
o
1
I
75-77
27
1970-71 72-74
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
o
2
o
1
11
22
1B
3
6
5
35
10
13
2
7
3
3
o
r«E~I«l~X4XIQ«_~4Xl
78-80
22
81-85
3
LATER
N7I:VER
1
0
0
0
1-1--------1
8
4
0
1-1--------1
4"lkl&4XI~Q_4~a_Hlr4H~I~~_f4'XQH~
A. Legislation enforcing pollution control.
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
15
20
5
0
11
6
5
1
0
4
78-80
4
6
Bl-85
1
LATER
NEV7I:R
1
0
0
o
0
0
Hl~Qr~Q_'4E4~rkIXII~
~O,O~~ine~.
A. "Massive communication interface -
f
75-77
21
10x+ 100)(+ 1000)(+ >1000)(+
NECESSRY ASSET USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x10xO.K.
14
29
2
1
0
0
1
1
GROUP TOTALS
6
34
1
0
CONSENSUS
1----------1-1
1-1-1
1
B
0
0
0
EXPERT TOTALS
1
2
6
0
0
0
1
CONSENSUS
1- -1-1
1--------1-1
B. Low cost sensors capable of detecting many types and combinations of pollutants.
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
F,XPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
ASSET
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10)(-
45
2
1
0
0
10
1
0
0
0
1--1-1
1--1-1
Ci
III.40
10x-
O.K.
10x+
100)(+ 1000)(+ >1000x+
Research Monitorint for Ecological Effects -- .~tilizati:0nof computersy~tems in 20 per~ent?f the
Fortune 500 Compan es to monitor stageS';~f'~evelopmen~al researQh to predi,dt the ecological ::impll.catiGns
relati ve to the manufacture, use, and d1sposal of potential products.
L~~4Ql-dla_E4LU~
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
r-lILL
PROFITABLE TO IMPL1f:MENTOR
US1f:FUL TO PUBLIC
NOT BE
V1f:RY MODER.T MARGINAL
VERY MODERT MARGINAL IMPLEMENTED
8
29
13
21
20
8
8
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MAJOR
GROUP TOTALS
19
EXPERT TOTALS
5
SIGNIF.
LIT'1'L1f:
28
2
1970-31 72-74
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
o
o
NO
9
1
0
1
o
75-77
0
1
78-eo
23
4
5
1
3
3
1
2
l.fJ.r.L~~E!lU:rl.Q!l_!2.4X~
81-85
19
LATER
1-1--------1
1
("
4
3
NEVER
3
2
0
0
1-1--------1
dQQELEB4Xl!lQ_4!l!2._aEX4a!2.l.IQ_E4~XQa~
A. Legislation enforoing pollution control.
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
A.
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74
15
20
6
0
8
4
4
0
0
3
NECESSRY
30
78-80
8
1
81-85
o
o
LATER
o
o
NEVER
o
o
aE~Ql.HE!2._Q4r.d~l.~l.Xl.~~
Discovery system.
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
75-77
18
4
ASSET
10
1--1- ________ 1
4
2
1--1 _________
1
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x-
3
1
2
1
0
0
10x-
O.K.
10x+
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
10x-
O.K.
10x+
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
0
0
0
B. Mass storage of 100 ~llion b~~~
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
12
ASSET
23
1----------1-1
1
3
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x-
9
0
1
3
0
0
1--1---------1
III.41
3
9
23
1--------1-1
1
7
(
EDUCATION
popular magazines and the news media indicate that education
is on the verge of a crisis. Many communities have refused
to approve increased taxes to meet the increased cost of
providing public education. Lack of funds makes it difficult to
attract enough highly qualified, highly motivated people as
teachers. Disagreements among parents, teachers and administration particularly in underprivilege areas raise questions as to
whether our present educational institutions are meeting the
needs of the public, all of this at a time when the demand for
educat.ion is greater than ever.
The study indicates that in the future educational institutions
will increasingly turn to the computer to provide quality
education by conserving and maximizing the utilization of
trained educators and school facilities.
By 1980 one percent
of the primary and secondary schools will use computer systems
to provide dynamic day-to-day schedules for pupils, teachers,
and facilities.
Scheduling becomes even more critical in 1980 when Computer
Assisted Instruction (CAl) acccounts for 20 percent of the
teaching hours.
In the 'same time period monitoring and
directing of students' progress via Computer Managed Instruction
(CMI) will be used either as an alternative or in conjunction
with CAl in 5 percent of the schools. The type of computer/
student interaction presented by CAl will also be used to provide
testing and guidance counseling, dynamically structuring the
testing based on anS"lers and response tir:1.e to previous questions.
Interestingly enough although the emphasis on CAl has
primarily in relation to educational institutions, it
probably be industry and the militarv 't'lhich \vill Make
progress with 20 percent of the on-job training hours
accomplished by CAl as early as 1975-77.
been
\vill
the earliest
being
The next significant advance in education will be the utilization
of the home terminal in the decade of the 80's as an educational
device. Courses for all levels of education including graduate
and post-graduate refresher will be available by then and used
by at least 1 percent of the homes.
III.42
EDUCATION
1970-71 72-74
APPLICATION TITLE
DYNAMIC SCHEDULING OF EDUCATJOllAL
FACILITIES
1007550250P.C.
CO,',!PUTER ASSISTED INSTRUCTION - ON 10075THE JOB TRAINING
50250P.C.
COMPUTER NANAG'E[) INSTRUCT lOll
H
H
.....
H
w
COMPUTER ASSISTED INSTRUCTION
EDUCATIONAL INSTITUTIOnS
COMPUTER ASSISTED TESTING AND
GUIDENCE COUNSELING
1007550250P.C.
1007550250P.C.
75-77
78-00
1-1-1
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.5
65.0
11.7
21. 7
1-/-1
10.6
18.8
6.1
1-/--------1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
50.8
5.1
32.2
1-1--------1
61.2
1.5
32.8
LATER
0.0
3.~
8.5
4.5
NEVER
so-
2.23
2.34
2.77
0.23
3.10
3.23
3.28
0.11
2.71
2.29
3.13
-0.29
3.56
2.86
3.73
0.07
2.54
2.20
2.64
0.48
3.41
2.52
3.66
-0.40
0.0
3.4
0.0
I
I1-/--------1
0.0
0.0
55.4
4.6
HOl.{E COMPUTER ASSISTED INSTRUCTION 10075-
so-
250P.C.
flILL
IMPACT PROFITABLE USEFUL
ON
TO
NOT BE
TO
SOCIETY IMPLEMENTOR PUBLIC IMPLEMENTED
1.7
10075250P.C.
(~
81-85
30.8
7.7
1.5
I
I 1--------1-1
0.0
0.0
22.6
3.2
/
"
58.1
16.1
0.0
C)
computer Assisted Instruction - On The Job Training -- The replacement of 20 percent of on-the-job
training hours in industrial and military organization by computer assisted instruction.
IMEdfX_d~Q_fdkUE
REASONS FOR IUPLEMENTATION
WILL
PROFITABLE TO IftlPLEMENTOR
USEPUL TO PUBLIC
NOT BE
VERY MODERT MARGINAL
VERY MODERT MARGINAL IMPLEMENTED
27
40
7
34
29
9
3
4 8 0 5 7
0
o
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MAJOR
GROUP TOTALS 21
EXPERT TOTALS
3
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
A.
78-80
75-77
7
1970-71 72-74
1
0
52
I~f~EME&XdXrQ~_~AXE
81-85
4
2
NEVER
0
0
o·
LATER
1-1-1
10
1
1
1
1-1-1
dffE~iHA!I~Q_d~Q_HEXdHQr~g_rdfXQH~
Successful utilization in 10 large corporations without union objection.
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
B.
o
o
2
8
0
NO
LITTLE
17
SIGNIF.
43
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74
8
0
7
30
19
0
1
4
3
4
75-77
22
4
78-80
17
3
81-85
1
0
LATER
0
0
NEVER
1
1
75-77
14
2
78-80
12
1
81-85
LATER
4
NEVER
2
0
Federal subsidy.
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74
6
0
7
31
18
0
0
3
5
6
3
0
2
H,aQrH~Q_fdrg~rLIXIE~
A.
(
Course preparation language to reduce the preparation cost by a factor of
systems.
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
B.
NECESSRY
33
ASSET
17
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x3
1
1
0
10x6
1--1---------1
6
2
O.K.
41
~
over today's CAI
10x+
4
100x+ 1000x+ >1000"+
0
0
0
1- 1- I
1
0
1
0
0
8
2
0
0
0
1--1---------1
1-1-1
Terminal with display, full keyboard, light pen function keyboard, and video/audio output $200/month.
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTAL.')
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
32
ASSF:T
21
USEFUL ,'lOME USE
1
0
"0
NEET) >10x-
1
1
1
0
10x2
1--1---------1
5
4
O.K.
47
10"+
0
100x+ 1000x+ >1000"+
0
0
0
I -1- I
0
0
1------1-----1
1
8
I -I - I
III.44
0
0
0
0
M?'fItl.kt.U.Q!L~lgkBI'fXllUl
Oomputer Assisted InstrllCti.on Educational Institutions -- The replacement of 20 percent of the
teaching hours in educational institutions by computer as'isted instruction.
MAJOR
GROUP TOTALS 32
EXPERT TOTALS 6
LITTLE
SIGN!F.
40
8
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
o
o
o
o
78-80
41
4
0
2
o
IM'fkKMl~X4XIQ~_~t.Xl
81-85
LATER
22
1-1--------1
6
a
1--------1-1
o
0
18
If. 4
10
44
26
3 8 1 9 5
o
75-77
1
0
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
ra LL
PROFITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
NOT BE
VERY MODERT MARGINAL
VERY MODERT "ARGINAL IMPLEMENTED
NO
8
1970-71 72-74
c
IME4CX_4«~_!4k~l
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
NEVER
3
0
0
0
A. Federal subsidies.
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74
GROUP TOTALS
27
29
3
0
7
EXPERT TOTALS
5
8
0
0
1
B. Successful demonstration in one large school system.
75-77
24
78-80
13
7
81-85
LATER
2
o
If.
NEVER
3
0
0
o
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74 75-77 78-80 81-85 LATER NEVER
GROUP TOTALS
15
33
11
0
9
20
11
4
1
0
EXPERT TOTALS
3
7
3
0
If.
If.
4
0
0
0
C. Pupil to teacher ratios rising to 100 to 1 in 10 percent of the schools due to lack of funds.
nROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74
32
8
22
3
3
2
0
0
3
0
75-77
14
78-80
14
4
81-85
LATER
3
NEVER
g
4
1
6
?
2
RKQ~£RKQ_a4E4~r~IXIg~
A. Massive communication interface 10,000 lines.
\
NECZ;:SSRY
11
ASSP.T
USEFUL SOME USP. NO NEEn >10x-
10x15
O.K.
10x+
0
"
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
0
0
a
CROUP TOTftL[]
28
13
3
3
9
27
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
1--------1_1
EXPERT TOTALS
1
6
2
1
1
3.
2
6
0
a
0
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
1--------1-1
R. Inexpensive terMinal with display, full keyboard, function keyboard, and light pen.
The terminal
should be capable of television (audio and video) type displays. $100 per month.
0
NECESfJRY ASSET U.'JEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x10xO.K.
1.0x+ 100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
GROUP TOTALS
37
16
4
0
1
0
1
50
2
0
0
0
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
I
-I
-I
EXPERT TOTALS
5
5
1
0
0
0
0
9
0
1
0
0
CONSENSUS
1----------1-1
I
-1I
C. CQurse preparation language to reduce the preparation cost by a factor of 10 over today's CAl systems.
NECESSRY ASSET USEFUL SOUE USE NO NEED >10x10xO.y..
GROUP TOTALS
32
24
0
1
1
2
0
49
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
I-I -I
EXPERT TOTALS
6
4
0
1
0
0
0
9
CONfJENSUD
1--1---------1
1-1I
D. Availability of courses from service organizations. $200 Eer month.
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSllS
NECESSRY
4
2
ASSET
33
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEE.n >10x13
1--1---------1
5
2
1--1---------1
1
1
1
1
0
0
10x5
O.K.
1
10x+
100x+ 1000x+ >1000,,+
0
0
0
0
0
0
100x+ 1000,,+ >1000x+
2
0
0
0
9
o
o
o
o
I-I - I
IIl.45
2
39
I -I -I
0
10x+
/
(--
Computer Assisted Testing an~ Guidance COuns~linq -- The accomplishment of 20 percent of the testing
and guidance counseling in educational institutions with computer assistance. The system administers
tests in subject matter, general IO, aptitude, personality, etc., adapting the tests individually
based on the answers and response time to previous questions. The results are evaluated and alternatives
suggested to a counselor for individual guidance.
r~~4~X_4~Q_l4&Q'
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
WILL
PROFITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
NOT BE
VERY
MODERT MARGINAL
VERY
HOnERT MARGINAL IMPLEMENTED
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MAJOR
13
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
3
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
SIGNIl?
LITTLE
37
30
5
6
o
o
75-77
1970-71 72-H
o
0
o
NO
78-80
36
3
21
30
19
374
13
3
rU~&EU~~X4!IQ~_Q~l'
81-85 LATER NEVER
20
1-1--------1
o
0
8
39
21
373
7
4
5
1
2
1
1----1-----1
d~QE~E~~lINQ_d~2_gEld~QIlg_Ed~lQ~~
A.
Social rejection of testing as a means of measuring and ranking individuals.
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74
B.
7
0
ASSET
21
78-80
2
1
81-85
5
0
LATER
B
75-77
16
4
78-80
7
0
81-85
10
3
LATER
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x18
4
5
11
1--1---------1
4
75-77
11
1
NEVER
16
3
0
NEVER
4
0
2
0
5
3
1----------1---------1
1
2
10x29
I -1- I
6
O.K.
11
2
10x+
0
0
100,,+ 1000,,+ >1000><+
0
0
0
0
0
I-I -I
0
Terminal with display, full keyboard, light pen. $100 per month.
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
c.
3
3
gEQQIgg2_fdEdRI~IlIE~
Mass storage 100 billion bytes.
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
E:XPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
B.
0
0
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74
28
8
0
21
2
3
7
2
0
1
NECESSRY
(
10
3
Federal subsidy.
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
A.
26
6
22
3
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
12
ASSET
31+
1--1-1
3
6
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x10
0
0
0
1+
1--1---------1
0
0
0
10x1
0
O.K.
1+7
1-1-1
9
1-1-1
10,,+
2
1
100x+ 1000x+ >1000><+
0
0
0
0
0
0
Program product for the application $500 Eer month.
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONEENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
~
1
ASSET
40
1--1-1
8
USEFUL EONE USE NO !!.'?ED >10x-
6
0
1
0
3
0
1
0
1--1---------1
10x7
1
O.K.
42
I -I -I
9
1-1-1
c'
III. 46
10x+
1
0
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
0
0
0
0
0
0
comtuter Managed Instr~ctj.on -- The ~plementation.in 5 percent of the secondary schools of computer managed
ins ruction. The system wQuld indiv~dually prescr~be course modules, schedule and score tests, and determin
the next module.
('\
I
ZMf4'X_4~~_l4~QE
RTl:ASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
PROFITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL TO PUBLrC
VERY MODERT MARGINAL
VRR.'I' MODERT MARGnrA[,
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MAJOR
GROUP TOTALS 10
EXPERT TOTALS 6
SIGNIF.
35
NO
LITTLE
13
5
15
5
3
3
1
33
17
18
5
20
11
29
12
WHL
~r(),!,
FIT?
n. foJ,T?MEN'!'P.D
7
3
6
2
lHf~l~l~X4Xla~_Q4X~
CROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
A.
75-77
1970-71 72-74
o
0
o
78-80
30
3
81-85
19
LATER
1-1--------1
0
12
2
10
NEVER
5
2
1
a
1-1--------1
Advanced database management system.
NECESSRY ASSET
GROUP TOTALS
11
34
CONSr.NSUS
1--1-1
EXPERT TOTALS
2
19
CONST?NSUS
1--1-1
B. Remote handwriting input.
USEPlJL
El2QIBl~_'4e4~1~IXI~~
SONliJ
llSE NO NF:F:D
l~
2
0
1.
o
o
>10)(-
10)(-
O.K.
NF-CESSRY ASSRT USP.PlIL SOMF. USE NO NF.ED >10)(100><+ 1000><+ >1000><+
10>10><-
10)(-
8
3
0
0
2
6
1
0
0
2
1----------1-1
5
q
O.K.
31
10><+
7
,.
/
'
100><+ 1000)(+ >1000><+
I')
0
0
1- I -I
1--/---------1
8
2
0
0
0
1- 1- 1
C~
III.47
Dynamic Scheduling of Educational Facilities -- The utilization of computers in 1 percent of the primary
and secondary schools to dynamically schedule the utilization of facilities in conjunction with modern team
and modular teaching methods and individual rates of progress made possible by Computer Assisted Instruction
(CAI.)
IME4~l_4«~_l4kQ~
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MA.TOR
r:ROUP TOTALS
8
EXPERT TOTALS 3
SIGNIF.
NO
LITTLE
26
25
12
8
R!MSONS FOR IMPLRM!?NTATION
WILL
~I(}'" FIr:
PROFITABLF: TO IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
VERY MODERT MARGINAL
VRRY MODRRT MARr:n1ftL nrpl, H/M!?N'I'ED
9
3
1
28
12
5
21
17
26
14
6
7
12
4
5
1
Z~E~~ME~l4lLQ!_~4l~
GROUP TOTALS
1970-71 72-74
0
0
78-80
39
75-77
7
A.
LATER
NF:VEP
13
0
1
6
0
0
! - 1-I
CONSP.~TfWS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
81-85
0
15
2
0
1-1--------1
Better scheduling algorithms.
NECESSRY ASSET USEFUl, SOM? USE NO NP.ElJ >10lC10"O.K.
10"+
100><+
GROUP TOTALS
13
39
0
1
a
CONSP.NSUS
1--1-1
EXPERT TOTALS
6
14
0
a
0
CONSE"SUS
1----------1-1
B. Availability of the application program from a service organization $100 per month.
NECESSRY
ORO UP TOTALS
CM1."iENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSlIS
9
3
Assr;;T
27
USF:PlJL SOMfi: US!? NO NEIW
13
>10"-
1
1
0
0
1
0
10"1
1--1---------1
12
1- -I - 1
3
O.K.
33
10"+
9
100><+ 100r)x+ >100(1)<+
0
0
0
1- 1- 1
0
11
1- 1- I
2
1000><+ >1r)nr)><+
0
n
0
Home Computer A$sisted Instruction -- The availability of computer assisted instruction in one percent
of the homes. This would supplement public education.at all lev7ls and ~rovide post graduate refres~er
and extension courses. Most of the educational mater1als (graph1cal, pr1nted and/or sound) are prov1ded
at the terminal. The students progress is monitored and he is advanced at his own speed.
lll~dQl-da~_l~~~'
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
WILL
PROFITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
NOT BE
VERY
MODER'! MARGINAL
VERY MODERT MARGINAL IMPLEMENTED
13
43
13
50
14
8
11
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MAJOR
30
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
9
SIGNIF.
LITTLE
40
8
1970-71 72-74
o
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
A.
NO
2
10
1
75-77
0
o
1
78-80
2
7
14
36
10
0
4
11
1
0
1--------1-1
14
29
6
8
7
1
0
0
7
1
ABSOLUTE POSS.TBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74
12
29
3
0
7
5
6
1
0
1
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74
25
21
6
5
7
4
0
0
3
1
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74
23
17
7
5
46
1--1-1
ASSET
6
13
3
1--1-1
High capacity
~~~-way
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
COflOEN8US
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
LATER
6
75-77
10
2
78-80
16
8
81-85
75-77
15
78-80
12
81-85
5
o
o
o
LATER
5
1
NEVER
2
0
0
o
LATER
8
2
1
NEVER
1
9
3
NEVER
7
3
1
1
10 ,.. .
3
1
1
0
1
75-77
78-80
11
81-85
7
2
5
7
1
T,ATER
7
2
NEVER
10
4
31
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x-
2
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
10x0
0
18
1--1---------1
a
8
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x1
0
5
0
0
47
1-1-1
15
10x+
1
0
1-1-1
communication channels.
ASSET
O.K.
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
0
0
0
0
0
0
10x-
O.K.
10x+
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
10x-
O.g.
10x+
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
1
1----------1-1
Availability comparable to today's telephone service.
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUO
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
11
ASSET
35
1--1-1
2
14
USEFUL 80.'1E UDE NO NEED >10x-
7
1
3
1
0
0
1--1-1
Course preparation language to reduce the preparation cost by a factor of 10 over today's CAl systems.
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CO NSENOUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
E.
4
81-85
~E~QlE~a_~drd~lItl:rl~~
NECESSRY
D.
3
Inexpensive two-way television type terminal - $5-$30 per month.
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
C.
1
Failure of urban high schools: at least 10% of all high schools in the 10 largest cities in the U.S.
closing because of conflict between parents, teachers and administration, recognition of poor educationa:
quality or lack of funds.
",
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
13.
78-80
14
Availability of college credits via CAl courses.
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
A.
75-77
13
FCC regulation allowing new two-way switched communication networks.
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
D.
1
d~~ELE~d:rlaQ_dli~_~E:rd~elliQ_Ed~:rQ~~
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFEC'! 1970-71 72-74
C.
14
CATV installed in one percent of the homes.
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
B.
2
l.ll~It~t!.EliUT.l.QlL~d:r~
81-85 LATER NEVER
1--------1-1
1
0
6
ASSET
USEFUL SOUE USE NO NEED >10x-
10x-
15
34
3
1
0
1
6
2
12
0
1
0
0
3
1----------1-1
1--1-1
NECESSRY
9
2
ASSET
33
1--1-1
11
1--1-1
1
1-1-1
11
10x+
2
0
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
1
0
0
0
0
0
1-'
\~
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x8
1
2
1
2
37
I -1- I
Massive communication interface 100,000 lines.
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
O.K.
0
0
10x16
O.K.
31
1--------1-1
5
10
1--------1-1
III.49
10x+
0
0
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
0
·0
0
0
0
0
FINANCIAL AND INSURANCE
(
In the period 1975 through 1980 twenty percent of the banks will
have completed the more advanced applications related to their
day-to-day operations. Examples include: reserve requirements
models, automatic evaluation of commercial loan applications, and
terminals to automate bank teller functions including delivery
and collection of cash.
Beginning in 1978-80 banks will be in the process of expanding
their areas of business by providing increased computerized
services to their customers in the form of advisory services for
budget, tax, investment, savings and insurance planning. Insurance
companies will provide similar services, but will use their
marketing force to bring the service into the home via portable
agent's terminals. By 1980 twenty percent of the banks and insurance companies will be offering these services.
By 1985 banks will be electronically interconnected to effect
electronic transfer of funds and account information. The
interconnection may be effected through an expanded Federal Reserve
System or the banks in an area might set up a financial utility
(perhaps a regulated monopoly) to act as the central switching
and coordination function for the electronic interchange. Once
this capability is in existence, banks and other financial institutions can offer additional new services to their customers. For
example:
(
•
A bank could offer automatic salary deposit to
companies, debiting the company's account and
depositing in employee's accounts even though the
the accounts are in different banks.
Similarly, individuals could pre-authorize payment
of mortgages, car payments, insurance premiums, etc.
'f:;~
Individuals could establish lines of credit in
multiple financial institutions and have them
activated in a prescribed sequence as required to
meet uncovered debits from a demand deposit account.
By 1985 twenty percent of the metropolitan areas will have electronic transfer of funds and will also have taken the additional step
of allowing connection of the point of sale terminals located in
retail and service outlets thus establishing the "Cashless/
Checkless Society." In this environment a customer desiring to
make a purchase
•
Identifies himself via credit card, fingerprint,
voice-print or some other means at the terminal,
III.SO
•
His demand deposit account balance, credit lines
and credit rating is checked,
•
The purchase is approved or denied.
•
If approved, his account is debited,
activating credit lines or establishing a
credit account if necessary.
•
The store's account is credited.
The transaction may involve three or four financial institutions,
but it is all completed before the customer leaves the point of
sale.
Toward the end of the 1980's when 1 percent of the homes have
multiple use home terminals connected to st.,1i tched networks , it
will be possible to effect most financial transactions (payment
authorization, establishment of credit lines, financial planning,
etc.) directly from the home.
III.Sl
........,
!~
j
\
~.
FT!IANCIAL
APPLICATION T!TLE
BANK RESERVE REQUIRE!1ENTS MODEL
1 97 C- 71 7? - 7 II
1007550250-
P.C.
AUTOMATED STOCK TRANSFER
H
H
H
BANKING SERVICE SYSTEM
1.8
7B.S
0.0
0.0
24.6
1007550250-
P.C.
78-80
17.9
1- f-I
0.0
11. 7
66.7
5.3
18.3
0.0
1-1--------1
0.0
14.5
0.0
0.0
5.5
10075SO250-
P.C.
CREDIT TRANSFER (GIRO) SYSTE,',f
3.5
I
10075SO250-
P.C.
FINANCIAL UTILITY
0.0
56.4
0.0
3.44
1. 41
0.00
1. 70
3.69
2.79
0.05
1.64
2.54
1. 64
0.38
1.67
2.73
2.72
0.30
1. 26
3.08
2.13
0.25
3.07
3.14
2.63
0.56
3.13
3.26
2.85
0.49
1. 95
3·.03
2.74
0.39
0.0
3.3
I - f-- -'- - -- - f
51j..5
38.2
0.0
1-1--------1
0.0
1.6
54.7
0.0
4.8
1-1--------1
50.8
I
0.0
0.0
1.8
I
32.8
~-----0.0
3.6
6.3
1j..7
I
36.5
3.2
4.8
INTEGRATED FINANCIAL SERVICE :;Y.'JTEI!1007550250-
P_r._
1.15
I
25.5
I
1007550250-
P.C.
WILL
IMPACT PROFITABLE USEFUL
TO
NOT BE
ON
TO
SOCIETY IMPLEMENTOR PUBLIC IUPLEMENTED
0.0
10075-
P.C.
INSURANCE SUPPORT SIS'l'E!1
1.8
66.7
so-
N
NEVER
I-I -I
0.0
250-
U1
LATER
81-AS
1-1-1
0.0
1007550250-
P.C.
COMMERCIAL LOAN CREDIT SCORING
75-77
0.0
0.0
1.R
1.-I
1--------1-1
47.3
41.8
7.3
1.8
-----~
!,r'lANCIAL
APPLICATIon TITLE
CHECKLESS SOCIETY
1970-71 72-74
V1
W
78-20
1007550 250-
P.C.
H
H
H
75-77
CONT.
81-85
LATER
NEVER
IMPACT PROFITABLE USEPUL
WILL
ON
TO
TO
NOT BE
SOCIETY IMPLEMENTOR PUBLIC IMPLEMENTED
3.52
, -1-1
0.0
0,0
0.0
16.7
69.7
10.6
3.0
2.43
2.11
1. 44
4ff~L~dlLQ~_a~~~HLelLQ!
Automated Stock ~ransfer -- The existence of a computer system supporting the transfer of securities.
This system would eHminate certificates as evidence of ownership and make it possible to complete
transfer transactions on the day of sale. Operation would be from terminals in broker's offices.
The system would provide other services via the terminal such as bid and asked prices to facilitate
large block transactions and quotations.
LMfdkl_d~a_Ed~Q~
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
WILL
PROFITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
NOT BE
VERY MODERT MARGINAL
VERY MODERT MARGINAL IMPL?MENTED
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MAJOR
2
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS 2
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
28
14
22
11
28
18
9
5
78-80
38
75-77
14
1970-71 72-74
0
0
0
NO
LITTLE
SICNIF.
4
1
27
12
12
7,
33
17
1
1
11
6
LMf~~M~~~dlLQ~_adlE
81-85
2
LATER
NEVER
3
0
1
0
1-1-1
10
0
2
17
1--------1-1
H~~QLH~a_Qded~L~lfLr~
A.
Mass data storage of 100 billion bytes.
NECESSRY ASSET USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10"12
0
1
1
3
33
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
0
9
0
1
0
14
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
B. Ten-fold increase in security features.
(
NECESSRY
47
GROUP TOTALS
CONSF:NSUS
1--1-1
EXPERT TOTALS
23
CONSENSUS
1--1-1
C. Network control.
ASSET
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x-
10"9
O.K.
35
1-1-1
6
15
10",,"
0
0
lOa",," 1000",," >1000x,,"
0
0
0
0
0
0
1--------1-1
10"-
0
1
2
0
0
2
0
0
2
0
0
1
O.K.
37
1-1-1
15
lax,,"
3
3
100x,," 1000x,," >1000x,,"
1
0
0
1
0
0
1-1-1
NECESSRY ASSET USF:FUL SOME USE NO NEED >10"0
38
1
0
GROUP TOTALS
8
CONSENSUS
1--1-1
19
4
0
a
EXPERT TOTALS
1
CONSENSUS
1--1-1
D. Massive communication interface of 1000 lines.
10x-
O.K.
lOx,,"
100x+ 1000x,," >1000x+
USF:FUr, SOME USE NO NEF:D >10"-
10x2
O.K.
lOx,,"
3
100x+ 1000x,," >1000x,,"
0
0
0
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
37
ASSET
9
2
0
0
0
5
1
0
0
0
1--1-1
18
1--1--1
0
36
1- 1-I
18
1-1-1
III. 54
1
0
0
0
~Z~~I~dXIQ!_Q~~aalEXIQM
-- The .implementation by2G percent of the banks of a system to
requirements making it .possible to make 'better use of their capital.
IMZd~l_A!~_£4~Q~
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
WILL
PROFITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
NOT BE
VERY MODERT MARGINAL
VERY
MODERT MARGINAL IMPLEMENTED
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MAJOR
GROUP TOTALS
2
EXPERT TOTALS
0
SIGNIF.
LITTLE
NO
50
9
18
11
3
1970-71 72-711
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
A.
o
1
o
0
75-77
411
78-80
10
30
7
1
0
20
5
119
12
o
o
I.~f~~!:tgMXdXlQM_l2.t1X~
81-85 LATER NEVER
1
0
0
1
o
o
1- J-I
13
14
6
5
1-1--------1
R~~QIE~Q_~~fd~lLIXIE~
Interactive terminal system with complex search and interactive pattern matching for use in
building, evaluating and optimizing the model.
NECESSR!
8
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
B.
35
6
7
II
ASSET
17
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x12
5
5
1--1---------1
II
1
3
1----------1-----------------1
10x-
O.K.
10x+
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
2
Human interaction in operation of the model in order to find a best result even though a closed
solution may not exist.
mathemati~al
NECESSR!
ASSET
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x GROUP TOTALS
30
II
12
1
1
CONSENSUS
1- --1- I
EXPERT TOTALS
6
5
2
1
0
CONSENSUS
1----------1-1
C.
Advanced data base management system.
10x-
O.K.
10x+
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
USEFUL SOME USl? NO NEED >10x2
1
3
10x-
O.K.
10)(+
100x+ 1000><+ >1000x+
NECESSR!
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
28
ASSET
13
1--1---------1
9
3
1--1---------1
1
0
1
III. 55
4ffLl£4~la!_~K~Hlf~lQ!
Banking Service System -- Availability in 25 percent of babks of a customer service system providing
budget plallning and surveillance, investment planning, tax calculatin9 and related financial activities.
(
IMf4~~_4!a_f4LQK
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MAJOR
2
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS 2
LITTLE
SIGNIF.
1S
36
8
17
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPI?RT TOTALS
CONSRNSUS
0
0
33
15
11
7
2
1
78-80
31
81-85
14
14
5
10
11
4
6
33
16
9
3
6
2
IMfLgMglr4rIQ!_Q4rg
LATER
:-1--------1
0
0
NO
75-77
8
1970-71 72-74
REASONS FOR IMPL~MENTATION
rnLL
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
PROFITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
NOT B7iJ
VERI MODERT MARGINAL
VERY MODERT MARGD'AL IMPLEM1?NTP.D
4
NEVER
2
0
1
0
1-1-1
H~gQlHga_k4f4~lLlrlg~
A.
Mass storage of
~OO
billion bytes.
NECESSRY ASSET USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10xGROUP TOTALS
1.?
12
1
0
3
21
CONSENSUS
1----------1---------1
RXPERT TOTALS
4
7
8
1
0
2
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
B. Advanced data bilse management system.
NECE<;SRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
(
15
ASSET
11
1--1---------1
14
6
1--1---------.1
USEFUL SOMR USE NO NEED >10x-
o
0
1
o
o
1
III. 56
lOX -
O.K.
29
9
11
3
1-1-1
10x+
0
0
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
0
0
0
0
0
0
1- I-I
10x-
O.K.
10X+
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
4EEItI.~~U.Qli_ll~~'!U.~~.z:Ql!
Checkless society -- 'the ea:\:.ablisbtnent of poinf oftranlfaetion debiting in 20 percent of the metropoH tan areas. This awlietiioon is an extensiono.f the Financial Utility to inclu~e termina~s at the
point of sale so that at the- tUne of s~e, transactions can be. recorded and authorl.zed or reJected.
Other services such as aut~atic bud9'e~ control are possible by allow;l.ng the systeItl to reject expenditures for iteItls that would overrun the previously established budget. .
~
I.Mf4~~4lia_~4k~'
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
WILL
PROFITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
NOT BE
VERr MOVERT MARGINAL
VERr MODERT MARGINAL IMPLEMENTED
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
o
9
3
78-80
11
8
2
39
2
I.«~It'M:l!X4XI.Qli_a~XI
81-85 LATER NEVER
46
7
2
6
1
0
1-1-1
1
0
0
23
26
4
20
21
22222
o
75-77
0
1970-71 72-74
0
0
0
NO
LITTLE
MAJOR ' SIGNIE'.
GROUP TOTALS
36
32
EXPERT TOTALS
3
1
1-1-1
d'QQI.dla_a4E~~ILIXI.12
A.
Positive user identification at the terminal (e.g. fingerprint, credit card, retina-print, voice-print,
etc.)
NECESSRI
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
B.
ASSET
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x-
57
0
0
0
0
7
0
0
0
0
1--1-1
10x-
O.K.
10x+
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
10x-
O.K.
10x+
25
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
5
0
0
1--1-1
Mass storage of 100 billion bytes.
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
C.
Low cost
ASSET
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED
45
6
0
0
0
5
1
0
0
0
1--1-1
1--1-1
>10x0
0
12
II
0
1--------1-1
1
II
0
0
0
I-I -I
terminal for point of sale entry and inquiries $200-$300 Eurchase.
/"
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
D.
37
1--1---------1
5
2
USRFUL SOME USE NO NEED
0
1
0
0
0
0
1--1---------1
NECESSRY
>10x0
0
10x6
0
O.K.
39
10x+
6
1-1-1
II
1-1-1
1
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
0
0
0
0
0
"
J/
0
44
ASSET
1
0
1
1
o
o
o
I -- I-I
6
1--1-1
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x-
6
10x-
O.K.
10x+
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
10x10
O.K.
10x+
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
0
0
0
Massive communication interface 100,000 lines.
NECESSRI
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
F.
17
Network control.
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
E.
ASSET
,
ASSET
31
19
5
1
1--1---------1
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x2
1
0
0
1
0
1-1-1
0
1--1---------1
30
4
Advanced data base management with particular emphaSis on security.
NECESSRI
ASSET USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x10xO.K.
10x+ 100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
GROUP TOTALS
SO
2
1
0
1
CONSENSUS
1-- 1- I
EXPERT TOTALS
7
0
0
0
0
CONSENSUS
1--1-1
G.
High reliability and availability. No discernible downtime at the terminals of longer than
!
minute.
NECESSflY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
13
0
ASSET
39
1--1-1
7
1--1-1
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x-
10x-
3
1
0
0
7
0
0
0
0
1
O.K.
33
10x+
9
1-1-1
2
2
1-1--------1
III.S7
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
0
0
0
0
0
0
,~----."
"~
commercial Loan Credit Scorin2 -- The implementation of a system for automatic evaluation of loans
based on credit reports, busIness analysis and business knowledge in 20 percent of the banks.
!
1~E4~X-d~~_rd~~~
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
WILL
PROFITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
NOT
BE
VERY MODERT MARGINAL
VERY MODERT MARGINAL IMPLEMENTE
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MAJOR
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
LITTLE
SIGNIF.
19
2
5
1
46
4
1970-71 72-74
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSlJS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
NO
o
0
o
0
10
45
13
1
30
25205
7
2
75-77
78-80
40
7
33
3
10
o
'
Ill~~~U~EXdXIQ~_~dX~
81-85 LATER NEVER
11
0
2
3
0
0
1-1-1
o
8
1-1--------1
~l~~I~~~_ad~4~1~IXIE~
A.
Multi-attribute pattern matching.
O.K.
10x+
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10xNECESSR! A~SET
GROUP TOTALS
30
16
2
1
3
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
EXPERT TOTALS
5
4
1
0
0
CONSENSlJS
1------1-----1
C.
Search engine 100 times today's capabilities.
10x-
O.K.
10x+
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
NECESSR!
ASSET USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10xGROUP TOTALS
6
31
10
2
4
3
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
EXPERT TOTALS
0
6
3
1
0
0
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
D.
Mass storage 100 billion bytes.
10x32
O.K.
10x+
0
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
0
0
0
B.
(
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x-
10x-
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
14
ASSET
27
704
1----------1-1
2
7
1--1-1
1
o
o
Advanced data base management system.
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
9
0
ASSET
36
1-- 1- I
9
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x3
1
3
7
0
1
0
1--1-1
1
1-1- [
5
1- [-I
10x16
6
0
O.K.
20
1-1--------1
2
3
1----1-----1
III. 58
0
10x+
0
0
0
0
0
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
1
0
0
0
0
~
0
Cr.dit·~nsfer
(Giro)Sr_tillli\--'1Ihe establ'ishment of a nationwide credit transfer system to supplement the
existing cheCl( transfe;r::system ap,d to act as a predeceslilor to t}1e "checkless society, n In this system, the
normal check flow of buyer t9seller to seller's bank t;o.buyer·s bank to buyer is reversed so that a credit
authorhation goes from b~yer to buyer's bank to seller' $ bank. Buyer and seller receive statements verifying the transfer. In tlli$ system, a bill may b~come a credit a·uthorization by having the ,buyer endorse ~
i t and include hisaccoUllt number on it.
l.f:ff4C.X...dN.12_Uldl&. .
'\.~
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MAJOR
GROUP TOTALS
23
EXPERT TOTALS
1
SIGNIF.
15
o
75-77
0
Q
o
29
3
1
2
1!I70-71 72-74
GROUP 'l'OTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
NO
LITTLE
"0
3
REAfjONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
WILL
PROFITABLE TO IM'PL~MENTOR
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
NOT BE
VER! MODEM' MARGINAL
VERY MODERT MARGINAL IMPLEMENTED
78-80
32
3
5
1
27 .
2
26
2
15
1
13
0
l.MfLiMINX4XrQI_124X1
81-85
23
LATER
1-1--------1
o
0
37
2
3
3
NEVER
2
3
0
1
1--------1-1
~&.gQlil12_Qdf4~~rXI&.~
A. Positive user identification.
NECESSRY
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
O.K.
NECESSRY ASSET USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10xGROUP TOTALS
39
11
1
0
1
1
CONSENSUS
1--1--1
EXPERT TOTALS
0
3
2
0
0
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
C. Advanced data base management system.
10x-
O.K.
10x+
35
9
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x-
10x-
O.K.
10x-
O.K.
B.
48
1--1-1
5
4
o
0
1--1-1
o
o
Mass storage 100 billion bytes.
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
D.
ASSET
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x1
0
2
lOx -
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
48
ASSET
5
1
0
1
1
o
o
o
1--1-1
4
1--1-1
Network control.
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
Z::XPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
48
1- -1-1
4
1- - I-I
ASSET
USEFUL SOUE USE NO 1JEED >10x-
3
101
1
o
o
o
III. 59
2
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
0
0
0
I -I -I
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
10x+
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
(
Financial utility -- The establishement,of an integrated financial service in 20 percent of the metropolitan areas. The utility (a regulated monopoly?) would primarily provide electronic transfer of funds
between demand accounts in subscriber banks making possible such services as automatic deposit of
salaries, automatic pre authorized debits and automatic activation of credit lines from various banks or
financial institutions. Centralized credit checks could be made taking into account bal~nce on hand,
salaries, outstanding loans, and established credit lines.
lliEdQZ_dHa_YdLgE
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
WILL
I
PROFITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
NOT BE
VERI MODERT MARGINAL
VERY MODERT
MARGINAL IMPLEMENTED
IMPACT ON SOCIETI
MAJOR
GROUP TOTALS
23
EXPERT TOTALS
7
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
A.
SIGNIF.
39
17
7
4
o
1
a
75-77
1970-71 72-74
o
0
78-80
35
1
27
38
5
6
9
1
22
30
57
13
15
3
3
lliEL~MEH!4!lQH_~4!E
81-85 LATER NEVER
21
1-1--------1
o
0
I
NO
10
5
4
3
1
0
1-1--------1
EE2glE~~_Q4Ed~lLl!lE~
Massive conununication interface 1.0,.0.0.0 lines.
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
B.
LITTLE
36
ASSET
13
1--1---------1
9
3
1--1---------1
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10"-
3
1
1
0
1
0
0
0
10"8
3
O.K.
39
1-1-1
8
1--------1-1
10"+
1
0
100"+ 1000,,+ >1000"+
0
0
0
0
0
0
Network control.
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
C.
45
1--1-1
13
ASSET
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10"-
6
3
0
1
0
1
0
0
1- -1- I
10,,-
O.K.
10x+
100,,+ 1000,,+ >1000"+
10x12
O.K.
33
10"+
1
100x+ 1000x+ >1000"+
0
0
0
8
1
Mass storage of 10.0 billion b:ttes.
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
n.
37
ASSET
15
1--1---------1
9
3
1--1---------1
USEFUL SOUE USE NO NEED >10x 2
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
1--------1-1
2
1- I-I
0
0
0
Advanced data base management system.
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
NECESSRY
38
ASSET
13
1--'1---------1
9
2
1--1--1
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x2
0
1
1
0
0
(/
III. 60
10"-
O.K.
10"+
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
4ffLIQ4XIQ!_a~~QBlfrIQ!
Insurance ~port s¥stem -- Establishment in 25 percent of the insurance companies of a consolidated
system, accessible rom a portable agent terminal, providing the fUnctions of total insurance planning
(file, health, casualty), customer reviews, and accounting (billing, payments" loans.)
I~f4Qr_4!e_r4L~~
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
WILL
PROFITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
NOT BE
VERY MODERT MARGINAL
VERY MODERT MARGINAL IMPLr<:MENTED
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MA.!OR
CROUP TOTALS
0
EXPERT TOTALS 0
SIGNIF.
38
11
o
0
o
0
17
4
6
o
78-80
30
75-77
3
1970-71 72-74
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
NO
LITTLF:
13
6
32
11
7
2
9
3
22
7
19
5
5
o
I~f~~~~~r4rIQ!_e4r~
81-85
LATER NEVER
21
0
1
1-1--------1
9
1
5
0
1
1-1--------1
B~2aIB~a_Q4f4~I'IrI~~
A. l-1ass data storage of 100 billion bytes.
NECESSRY ASSET USRFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10)(30
10
2
3
5
GROUP TOTALe;
3
CONSRNSUS
1--1---------1
P,XPERT TOTALS
7
1
2
2
1
1
CONSENSUS
1--1------------------1
B. Hassive communication interface of 1000 lines.
NECESSR.Y
GROUP TOTA['S
CONSP,NSUS
P.XPERT TOTALS
CONSF:!}SlIS
ASSF.T
USEFUL SOME liSE NO Nf1:ED >10)(-
37
9
1
0
0
0
9
3
()
0
0
0
1--1-1
1--1--1
10)(13
O.K.
24
10)(+
2
100)(+ 1000)(+ >1000)(+
()
0
0
1--------1-1
4
5
1
0
()
0
1----1-----1
10)(3
2
O.K.
40
1- 1- I
10
1-1-1
1())(+
0
0
100"+ 1000><+ >l()OO"+
!')
()
0
0
()
0
'"
/
•
!~
III. 61
(0. ~
.lff~I.'4U.QIL~U'1lI.fU.QN.
'Interrated Financial Service Systems -- Utilization by 1 percent of the population of independent financial
serv ce systems which provide consolidated insurance, investment management, savings planning and financial
administration services handled by a single service agent and administ."d to a single billing account.
I~f4'X_44~_l4~Ql
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MAJOR
GROUP TOTALS
5
EXPPJRT TOTALS 2
SIGNIF.
NO
LITTLE
30
13
22
8
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
WILL
PROFITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
NOT BE
VERY MODERT MARGINAL
VERY MODERT MARGINAL IMPLEMENTED
20
9
4
1
10
3
26
10
18
4
21
11
8
3
17
6
I~f&~«~N.X4U.QN._~4X~
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPP.RT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
A.
75-77
1970-71 72-74
o
0
o
78-80
1
81-85
26
LATER
23
1--------1-1
0
10
1
11
NEVER
~
1
0
1
1--------1-1
1l~gQI.ll~~_'4f4~1'I.XI~~
Mass storage 100 billion bytes.
NECESSRY ASSET USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10xGROUP TOTALS
27
15
3
0
1
0
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
EXPERT TOTALS
5
8
3
0
1
0
CONSENSUS
1----------1-1
B.
Advanced data base management system.
(
NECESSRY ASSET USF:FUL SOMTI: USE NO NF:ED >10xI;
,ROUP TOTALS
39
0
0
1
CONSENSUS
1--1-1
EXPERT TOTALS
14
0
3
1
0
CONSENSUS
1--1-1
C. Massive conununication interface - 10 ,O~ lines.
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
13
ASSET
27
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x3
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
1----------1-1
6
8
1---------"'1-1
10x10
5
O.K.
30
1-1-1
8
III. 62
0
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
0
0
0
0
0
0
1--------1-1
10x-
O.K.
10)(+
100x+ 1000)(+ >1000x+
10x14
O.K.
10)(+
1
100)(+ 1000><+ >1000><+
0
0
0
24
1--------1-1
5
7
1--------1-1
c
10x+
1
0
0
0
0
I
PREIGHT TRANSPORTATION
The freight transportation industries are made up of many
independent carriers with the normal freight shipment involving
two or more different carriers.
The future will find a much
greater degree of cooperation between carriers. This cooperation
will be brought about primarily under the auspices of carrier
associations·· or the Interstate Commerce Commision. Because of
the numbers of carriers involved and their geographical dispersion,
computers will play a large role in coordination and cooperation.
(
'rhe study results shm.; that by 1980 a shipment might follovl this
pattern: the shipper desiring to make a shipment from St. Louis
to Hawaii has his computer consult with a freight rate service
for optimum routings and rates. By this time, this service is
routinely provided by information utilities to 20 percent of the
shippers. Having determined the desired route, his system takes
advantage of a service offered by 5 percent of the interstate
carriers and has his computer forward the requests for pickup,
bills of lading, and routings directly to the local carrier's
computer. The carrier's computer system schedules a local truck
to make th pickup and matches this shipment ';,'1i th others with
similar destinations. When the truck returns to the carrier's
new automated freight terminal (1 percent of the terminals would
be now automated) where the shipment is automatically stored,
containerized with cargo for Hawaii and loaded onto flat cars
for rail shipment to San Francisco. Because this is ~n intermodal shipment (truck, train, and ship) the carrier's computer
system enters the necessary data into the central system sponsored by the Interstate Commerce Department 'V'Ihich will coordinate
the necessary carriers and track the shipment till it reaches
its destination. Any inquiries are instantly answered by the
system. At the destination the shipment may be again handled
by several carriers with automatic terminals and interconnected
systems until the shipment reaches its addressee.
The railroad industry is faced with growing financial problems.
One solution might be to modernize and automate. Railroad car
tracing, tracking and allocation beginning to be done by individual lines in 1970 will be a nationwide reality in 1980. The
location of every car together with its contents will be known
by a computer system maintained by a railroad association.
Also
this system will make nationwide allocations of cars to meet
actual or forecasted needs and will make recommendations to lines
on how to route cars to meet the allocations. Trains by this
time will be largely computer controlled in 5 percent of the
main lines and 5 percent of the yards. Each train will respond
to control from a central system and will incorporate collision
avoidance systems to detect blocked tracks.
c
Navigation and control of ships in open seas and all but the
closest of piloting situations will be under computer direction
reducing the sizes of crews needed to operate them.
III.63
FREIGHT TRANSPORTATION
APPLICATION TITLE
AUTOMATED VEHICLE DIAGNOSTIC
CENTERS
1970-71 72-74
1007550250-
P.C.
FREIGHT RATE SERVICE
0.0
0.0
75-77
79-80
1-1--------1
65.1
31.7
100755025-
1-1-1
0-
P.C.
INTERCONNECTED SHIPPERS AND
CARRIER SYSTEMS
.
RAILROAD CAR TRACING, TRACKING AND 10075ALLOCATION
"'"
50250-
0'1
p.e.
AUTOMATED FREIGHT TERMINALS
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1-1-1
71. 7
3.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.8
5.4
24.5
21. 8
1-1--------1
1.6
65.6
29.5
1-1--------1
61.9
0.0
1007550250-
P.C.
1.6
1-1--------1
65.5
9.1
1001550250-
P.C.
COMPUTER CONTROL OF PREIGHT AND
PASSENGER TRAINS
71.4
21.4
1007550250-
P.C.
NATION-WIDE COORDINATION OF
.INTERMODAL FREIGHT SHIPMENTS
1.9
1007550 250-
P.C.
1-1
1-1
1-1
0.0
81-85
31. 7
LATER
1.6
0.0
0.0
3.6
3.3
6.3
NEVER
IMPACT PROF'ITABLE USEFUL
WILL
ON
TO
'1'0
NOT BE
SOCIETY IMPLEMENTOR PUBLIC IMPLEMENTED
2.10
3.13
3.46
0.26
1. 39
2.98
2.16
-0.05
1. 39
2.79
2.11
0.30
1. 50
3.06
2.55
0.19
1. 38
2.90
1.59
-0.63
2.36
3.01
2.59
-0.70
1.52
2.66
2.09
0.42
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1-1--------1
1.8
51.1
39.3
0.0
0.0
r.
(-~
\
)
/
'\
/
('I
)
Arf~l~dXIQ!_llg~~lllrXIQ~
(
Automated Freight Terminals -- The automation of 1 percent of the freight terminals. Based on teleprocessing
manifests of incoming shipments the terminal system schedules the docks and storage facilities optimumly.
Loading, unloading, movement and storage within the terminal is done automatically by automated equipment
under computer control.
IUPACT ON SOCIETY
MAJOR
3
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
1
CROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
;C:XPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
lur~~X_A~Q_EALQg
WILL
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
NOT BE
PROFITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
VERY
MODERT
MARGINAL
VERY
UODERT
MARGINAL IMPLEMENTED
LITTLE
NO
17
46
11
26
33
6
5
25
29
17
7
15
6
10
')
4
2
8
12
5
SIGNIF.
75-77
1
1970-71 72-74
o
0
o
78-80
40
I~r~gUlllX~!IQN_QdXg
81-85 LATER NEVER
18
1-1--------1
0
17
1
6
1-1--------1
2
0
1
0
&'~ELglldXIEQ_d~Q_~EXdaal~a_Ed~XQll~
A.
Establishment of a guaranteed annual income removing most of labor's objections to automation.
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74
B
6
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
B.
29
13
13
4
0
0
4
:1
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74
f
5
81-85
S
LATER
4
3
NEVER
2
1
2
15
23
11
0
4
')
12
2
0
3
75-77
78-80
13
5
81-85
6
LATER
5
3
4
1
3
NEVER
6
:1
NECESSRY
33
ASSET
14
1--1---------1
16
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10"3
1
1
3
2
1--1---------1
a
10)(-
O.K.
10X1-
100x1- 1000X1- >1000x1-
10x-
O.K.
10)(1-
100x1- 1000x,," >1000x1-
10,,2
O.K.
10x13
100)(+ 1000x1- >1000><10
0
a
1
Improved algorithms for resource leveling and scheduling.
NECESSRY
GFiOU/' TOTALS
COll:JENS US
FXPlmT TOTALS
C()NSrmSUS
C.
Relatively
aROUl' TOTALS
rGNSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
,":0 N{; F:NS us
19
USEFUL SOME USP. NO NEED >10x-
31
1
1
0
e
12
1
1
0
1----------1-1
high reliability
-
NECESSRY
3 11
lJ.1EF'UL SOMr: USE NO NT::ED
:1
0
1
ASSET
15
1--1---------1
15
3
no outages of over one hour.
2
1--1---------1
0
1
>10"-
a
0
11
4
ASSET
36
13
1- -1-1
15
1-1-1
U:JEFUL SOUE USE NO NEED > 10><-
4
a
1
1
3
0
1
1
1--/-1
39
1-1-1
1
100 billion bytes.
NECESSi?Y
r;ilOUI' TOTALS
CONSl?NSUS
P,XPEI/ T TOTALS
;:0 NSRNSUS
ASSET
1----------1-1
n. Mass storage of
(~
13
3
Network control.
GROUP TOTALS
cnNsr:NSU:;
;;:XPEJIT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
"
78-80
Establishment of tax incentives for investment in automation.
GROUP TOTALS
T\XPET?T TOTALS
A.
75-77
10
10x-
O.K.
14
31
10"10
1--------1-1
4
12
1--------1-1
III.65
1
0
0
a
a
100)(1- 1000x,," >1000",,"
a
a
0
0
0
0
Automated Vehicle o*agn?stic cente,rs; -- The availability in 20. percent of the metropolitan areas of
computer controlled vehl.c1e iflagnost1c centers. The center would analyze the performance of automobiles
and trucks, diagnose all malfunctions (including anti"pQ-llutiotl, devices,) recommend repairs and preventive
maintenance with price estimates.
SIGNIF.
GROUP TOTALS
10
EXPERT TOTALS
6
LITTLE
27
10
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
o
0
o
0
PROFIPABLE POIMPLEMEN;fOR
MODER!]! MARGINAL
VERY
NO
41
18
1970-71 72-74
'--~
R~ASONS FOR IMPLEMENPAPION
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MAJOR
\
J:lt:4'LM!.lJ.~:Uil.~
2
1
75-77
41
78-80
20
10
4
37
19
29
11
12
4
7
2
J:N:LE&E~X~XJ:Q!_~dX'
81-85
1
1-1--------1
20
44
18
23
11
WILL
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
NOT BE
MODERT MARGINAL IMPLEMENTED
VERY
9
LArER
0
NEVER
1
0
0
0
1-1--------1
~~~E&:~4XJ:~~_d~Q_~EX4EllJ:~Q_fd'XQ~~
A.
Successful implementation of non-automated diagnostic centers.
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
A.
12
4
10
6
Multi-attribute pattern matching.
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPE.T?T TOTALS
CONSENSUS
'R.
31
15
12
ASSET
28
1--1-1
6
14
13
5
6
3
8
78-80
8
4
81-85
1
1
LATER
NEVER
1
0
4
2
~KQUL~E~_Q~ed~~LXlE~
USEFUL SOME USE NO NTSED
10
0
2
4
0
2
1- -1-1
75-77
12
>10x-
10x-
O.K.
10><+
100><+ 1000x+ >1000x+
10x0
O.X.
38
10x+
10
100><+ 1000><+ >1000)(+
0
0
0
15
6
Low cost less than $500 .Eer month for the computer system.
/
GROUP TOTALS
rONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
c.
NECESSRY
26
ASSET
20
1----------1-1
11
11
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x-
2
0
1----------1-1
3
1
3
2
0
0
0
NECESSRY
9
ASSET
5
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10)(-
17
5
1
0
1
9
3
1
0
1
1----------1-1
1----------1-1
0
0
1-1--------1
$5-$10 cost per vehicle
':ROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
r:oXPERT TOTALS
r:ONSFNSUS
1-1-1
10x0
0
O.K.
18
1-1-1
11
I -1- I
I;tI.66
10x+
2
0
0
100x+ 1000x+ >1000)(+
0
0
0
0
0
0
\
,~
,/
4~~~lQ4XlQ!_a~~QRl~XLQ!
(
Computer Control of Freight and Passenger Trains
the operation of trains on 5 percent of the main
would track all trains, cause them to respond to
collision avoidance to slow or halt the train in
-- The implementation of computer systems to control
lines and in 5 percent of the yards. The system
block signals, control their operation and utilize
the event of the detection of collision paths.
lM~4aX_4~a_!4~~
WILL
REASONS POR IMPLEMEN~ArION
N()T BE
USEFUL TO UBLIC
PROFITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
VERY MODERT MARGINAL IMPLEMENTED
VERY MODERT MARGINAL
IMPACT ON SOCIETY.
MAJOR
5
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS 2
NO
LITTLE
SIGNIF.
0
27
7
7
3
10
2
36
10
11
4
7
38
10
12
4
9
0
20
4
LM~'~M~~X4XlQ~_a4X~
75-77
1
1970-71 72-74
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
o
1
o
0
78-80
81-85
32
LATER
22
NEVER
0
0
1-1--------1
o
8
500
1-1--------1
B~~alE~a_a4~4~l~lXL~~
A.
Network control to connect onboard computers with system control computers.
NECESSRY ASSET USEFUL SOME USE NO N'P;ED >10)(0
1
4
40
3
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
1--1-1
0
0
0
1
10
EXPERT TOTALS
CONS!?NS(!S
1--1-1
B. Massive communication interface - 10,000 lines.
10x-
O.K.
10x+
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
NECESSRY ASSP.T USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x0
0
2
8
26
12
GROUP TOTALS
1---1-1
CONSENSUS
0
0
0
4
3
3
EXPERT TOTALS
1----------1---------1
CONSENSUS
C. Advanced data base management system.
10)(15
O.K.
10x+
27
0
100x+ 1000)(+ >1000)(+
0
0
0
NRCBSSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
33
ASSF:T
10
1--1---------1
7
3
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10X3
0
1
1
o
o
1--1---------1
III.67
1--------1-1
3
6
0
0
0
0
1--------1-1
10x-
O.K.
100x+ 1000x+ >1000Xi
4ffLlkAtlQI_il£QilftlQI
Freight Rate Service -- The availability of a freight rate service to 20 percent of the interstate
shippers. The.system would allow retrieval of freight rates and the determination of the optimum
rate and route.
l«~A~f_'~Q-IALa~
WILL
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
PROFITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
NOT BF:
VERY MODERT MARGINAL
VERY MODERT MARr;TNAL IMT'L7'JMENTED
IMPACT ON SOCIETY.
MAJOR
GROUP TOTALS
2
EXPERT TOTALS 1
SIGNIF.
38
12
4
o
1
o
0
12
6
9
4
75-77
1970-71 72-74
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
NO
LITTLE
12
78-80
40
12
37
12
11
2
6
4
27
8
21
6
1
o
l«fL~M.!UlXAUQrL12AX~
81-85
3
LATER
NEVER
0
0
0
0
I-I -I
12
3
1
1-1-1
H~~UlB~Q-'4f4~lLlfl~£
A.
Advanced data base management system.
NECESSRY ASSET USEFUL SOME
r;ROUP TOTALS
31
13
1
CMTSENSUS
1--1---------1
11
3
P.XPERT TOTALS .
1
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
B. Availability of the application programs
NECESSRY
GROlfP TOTALS
CO NSP.NS US
P.XPP.RT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
13
ASSET
30
1----------1-1
5
R
USE NO NERD >10x0
2
o
o
O.K.
100x+ 1000><+ >1000><+
from a service organization $200 per month.
lfSP.FUL SOME USE NO NEED >lOx0
2
2
0
0
10x-
0
1----------1-1
1
0
lOx0
0
O.K.
39
10x+
4
1- I -I
13
1
100x+ 100()><+ >1000><+
0
0
0
0
0
0
1- 1- 1
\
III.68
"'---
,
/
4ff'lk4flQ«_~~~kBZfflQi
Interconnected Shi~pers and Carrier Systems-- The offering by 5 percent of the interstate freight carriers
of the ability to 1nterconnect the1rsystems' to those of the shippers they serve to allow the authorization
to move freight, shipment traces, and bills to be interchanged directly.
(
lMf4kf_4!~_!4k~
REASONS FOR IMPLFoMF:NTA'l'ION
WILL
PROFITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
NOT BE
VERY MODER'! MARGINAL
VERY MODERT MARGINAL .TMPLPM7?NTED
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MAJOR
GROUP TOTALS.
2
EXPERT TOTALS 1
SIGNIF.
36
3
8
1970-71
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
NO
LITTLE
13
78-80
38
75-77
72-7~
10
1
7
2
o
0
2
o
0
1
37
12
9
1
7
2
25
6
19
6
o
IJ
lMf'!«~!f4flQ«_a4X~
81-85
13
LATER
1-1-1
3
9
NEVER
0
0
o
o
1- I -I
4kk~~~B4Xl4a_44~_H!L4H~l4a_l4kfQB~
A. Nationalization of transportation systems.
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-71J
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
7
3
17
3
11
2
1
0
75-77
0
0
78-80
81-85
6
1
5
2
LATER
1
N1?VER
10
5
2
o
2
A. Network control.
(.
NECESSR! ASSET USEFUL SOME USE NO NP,ED >10xGROUP TOTALS
31J
9
1
1
1
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
()
EXPERT TOTALS
10
o
1
o
CONSENSUS
1--1-1
B. Massive communication interface - 1000 lines.
10x-
O.K.
10x+
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
NRCESSR! ASSET lISEFUL SOME USE NO NP.ED >10xGROUP TOTALS
32
12
2
0
0
0
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
9
EXPERT TOTALS
1
1
0
0
0
CONSENSUS
1--1-1
C. Advanced data base management.
10x0
O.K.
10x+
5
100x+ 1000x+ >100ox+
0
0
0
NP.CESSRY
GROllP TOTALS
CONSENS1IS
EXPRRT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
32
ASSP.T
12
US!?FUL SOMP. U.'IE NO NEED >10x1
0
1
1
0
0
1--1---------1
9
1
1- - I -I
c'
III.69
35
1- 1- I
0
8
0
0
0
0
1-1-1
10x-
O.K.
10x+
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
&~f~L'&XlQ~_~~,gLfXLQa
c
ants -- The existence of a system to allow the
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~==9T~=t.~~~~jF,~~S~hM·~~pments using any combination of transportation
LMf4'X_&~~td~QK
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
WILL
PROFITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
NOT BE
VERY
MOlJERT MARGINALVER:! MODERT MARGINAL IMPLEMENTED
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MAJOR
GROUP TOTALS
12
EXPERT TOTALS
1
34
29
3
3
4
o
75-77
1970-71 72-74
GROUP TOTA~S
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
NO
LITTLE
SIGNIF.
o
0
o
o
0
o
78-80
39
28
33
5
21
32
9
19
3
2
1
4
2
0
1
lUf~'~E~X&XlQl_a4XE
81-85 LATER NEVER
20
4
0
I-I--------r
4
3
0
0
1-1--------1
&"E~rg4XI~Q_4llQ_EEX4g~l~Q_£4'XQrr~
A.
Government ownership of all freight shippers.
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
n.
19
20
3
9
1
2
1
0
0
6
o
o
1
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
81-85
3
LATER
NEVER
25
4
1
o
3
13
2
35
4
0
0
2
0
1
0
75-77
10
1
78-80
19
3
81-85
4
0
LATER
81-85
5
0
LATER
NEVER
4
1
2
0
action precluding such cooperation between shippers.
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74
0
27
14
9
0
4
0
2
0
75-77
2
0
1
78-80
4
0
NEVER
6
1
24
2
/-
EKaQIE'Q_'4f4~l~lXL'~
Development of complex scheduling and routing algorithms.
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
[1.
78-80
ICC establishment of interface standards.
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
C. Anti-trust
A.
75-77
2
41
1--1-1
3
ASSET
USEFUL SOME USE NO NE1!:D >10lC-
11
1
0
0
2
0
0
0
1--1---------1
10x-
O.K.
10x+
100x+ 1000x+ >1000lC+
10lC3
O.K.
10x+
100x+ 1000x+ >1000lC+
0
0
0
Mass storage of 100 billion bytes.
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
12
CONSRNSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
0
CONSENSUS
C. Network Cpntrol.
ASSET
USEFUL SOME USE NO NERD >10x-
38
2
0
1
0
5
0
0
0
0
1--1-1
0
1- -1-1
40
3
5
0
I-I -I
1-1-1
0
0
0
NECESSRY
ASSET
UflEPUL SOUE USE NO NEED >10xGROUP TOTALS
38
12
2
0
1
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
EXPERT TOTALS
4
1
o
o
o
CONSENSUS
1--1- I
D. Advanced data base management system.
10x-
O.K.
10~+
100lC+ 1000x+ >1000x+
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x-
10lC-
O.K.
10x+
100x+ 1000lC+ >1000lC+
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
E.
42
ASSET
10
2
1
0
1
0
0
0
1--1 -I
4
1--1-1
,
Automatic package label readers.
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
16
ASSET
~,
USEFUL
NO NEED >10x-
9
1
0
3
2
0
0
1----------1-1
0
SOME USE
25
1--1---------1
III.70
10x-
O.K.
10x+
100lC+ 1000x+ >1000x+
(
Railroad Car Tracing, Tracking and Allocation -- The establishment of a data base system maintaining
the continuous location of all railroad cars throughout the North American continent together with
their contents. This would allow the shipper to trace his shipment with only one inquiry and would
allow optimum allocation of cars to meet actual or forecasted demands.
IMf4'!_4H~_I'~U~
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MAJOR
2
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS 1
SIGNIF.
LITTLE
NO
32
8
10
17
7
WILL
REASONS POR IMPLEMENTATION
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
NO'" BIi'
PROFITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
VERY MODERT MARGINAL D'P LP.J"F:fl'!'F:D
VERY MODERT MARGINAL
15
5
2
7
2
36
11
12
4
14
28
10
4
0
2
IMfL~M~~!4!IQ2_~4!~
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
1970-71 72-74
0
0
0
78-80
36
75-77
5
81-85
12
LATER
1-1--------1
0
11
1
1
NEVER
2
0
1
0
1-1-1
A. Advanced scheduling algorithms.
(
NECESSRY ASSET USEPUL SOME USE NO NF:ED >10lCo
3
1
29
15
GROUP TOTALS
CONSP,NSUS
1--1---------1
o
4
7
o
2
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSF:NSUS
1----------1-1
B. Mass storage of 100 billion bytes.
10lC-
O.K.
NgCESSRY AS8ET
CROUP TOTALS
33
13
CONSE!lSllS
1--1---------1
4
EXPl?RT TOTALS
8
CONS;r;;NSlIS
1--1---------1
c. Car identification system.
10lC7
O.K.
1
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
38
10lC+
0
10~OlC+
>1000 lC +
100lC+ 1000lC+ >1000lC+
0
0
0
1- I - I
0
10
0
0
0
(')
1-1-1
NFCF'SSRY ASS!':'!' llSF:PlJL SOME USP] NO NR!W >10lCCROUP TOTAlS
0
0
48
0
1
CONSENSUS
1--1 -I
0
EXPERT TOTALS
0
0
13
0
COl/SENSUS
1--1-1
D. Network of car identification sensors.
10lC-
O.K.
10lC+
100lC+
10~O)(+
>1000)(+
NEeSSSRY AssrT USEPIJL 80ME USE NO lI!':ED >10xGROUP TOTALS
37
0
0
12
0
CONSENSUS
1--\-\
E:XPP,RT TOTALS
7
fi
0
0
0
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
.R. Massive communication interface - 10,000 lines.
10 lC -
O.K.
10 lC +
100)(+ 100(')(+
>10~0)(+
NP,CFSSRY ASS""!'
(;ROUP TOTALS
17
30
CONS!?NSUS
1----------1-1
P,XPF:RT TOTALS
'I
8
CONSENSUS
1----------1-1
P. Network control.
10x-
O.K.
10)(+
0
100lC+ 101)0lC+ >1(00)(+
0
0
0
NECESSRY
('
USP-FUL SOME USE NO NF:ED >10lC-
100lC+
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSllS
F:XPPRT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
4'~
ASSET
1
1
0
1
')
1
0
0
0
2
33
1- I-I
7
0
0
0
0
1-1-1
',s.1?prn
SOME USTI: llO N'?rW >10 lC -
?
1
0
1
0
1
0
0
1--1-1
12
TfSEPUL [lOUR IJSE NO N1?ED >10x-
1--1-1
III.7l
10x-
O.K.
10)(+
10f)lC+ 10(,)Ox+ >1000><+
GOVERNMENT SERVICES
Many of the problems facing modern man are of such magnitude or
of such wide scope that they can only be solved by governmental
agencies either through direct action or by providing incentives
for private enterprise. Because of the size and pervasiveness
of the problems the computer may offer the only feasible solution.
One example is the area of air safety. The Federal Aviation
Authority today provides air control for scheduled flight~ and
for landings and takeoffs. At the present time they are in the
process of installing computerized systems to assist the
air controllers in their task. The next logical step, providing
actual control of the aircraft during landing and takeoff will
be a reality at the ten largest metropolitan airports by 1980.
Probably by the same date or certainly by 1985 all air traffic
(public, private, and military) throughout the continental
United States will be controlled by computer-assisted systems.
State and local governments will continue their search for funds
to provide their services. The study indicated that the experience
of the existing two state lotteries and the ultimate success of
New York's off track pari-mutual will lead four more states to
join New York with such solutions before 1980. Coordination and
control of local betting problems can only be solved by a computerdriven communication network.
The Defense Department will continue to be a large user of computers
for the foreseeable future. Such things as computer controlled
anti-ballistic missile (ABM) systems capable of handling a 100
missile salvo attack will be a reality by the 1978-80 time period.
If the SALT talks should fail and if Red China should develop an
intercontinental missile capability by 1977 as predicted by the
respondent panel, the implementation may be accelerated.
Public welfare is an area of widespread concern. The panel
predicts by 1980 at least ten states will have consolidated their
welfare systems into a single computerized system to manage all
aspects of welfare, unemployment, workman's compensation, etc.
The only factors mitigating against this development would be
for the federal government to take over welfare either generally
as it exists now or as some form of guaranteed annual income.
The rising costs of health care is another area of concern. The
panel believes that compulsory national health insurance will be
a reality by 1980. This would be supported by a computer network
interconnecting regional and local administrative systems.
The U. S. Weather Bureau has been the prime source of weather
forecasts and dates. By 1980 these services will be expanded to
c
III.72
provide two-week computerized forecasts based on circulation
models and worldw~de inputs from ground and spaceborne sensors.
By 1985 the necessary hydro and thermodynamics will be included
in the circulation model to make it possible to predict air
pollution given known conditions or sources of pollution.
Effective planning for the utilization of land resources in the
face of growing population and other competing needs will be
attacked by metropolitan and regional planning models in 1978-80
and by a National Land Inventory in 1981-85. These systems will
endeavor to indicate optimum population levels and land uses in
light of such factors as: labor and job mix, transportation costs,
tax base, recreation facilities, school requirements, environment
pollution, aesthetic qualities, etc. On a national and international
level, systems will be available after 1981 to assist governments
in planning resource management, international trade, transportation, population growth, food resources management, etc. These
systems will be of particular importance to developing countries.
Much concern is evidenced in the popular media over loss of
privacy brought about by the creation of government data banks.
Nevertheless, such systems--suitably controlled to insure against
abuse--will be created because the advantages will be too large
to ignore. 1981-85 will find such data banks as nationwide driver
and vehicle registration, and nationwide voter registration file
in existence. On the other hand, a single personal data bank
containing birth to death· information on everyone no matter how
protected is so far in the future that it may be considered in
/ '\
the never c a t e g o r y . , j
1I1.73
~.
~
r)
/
GOVERNMENT SERVICES
APPLICATION TITLE
AUTOMATED LANDINGS AN' TAKEOPFS
1970-71 72-74
0.0
0.0
1--------1-1
25.4
NEVER
-57.1
14.3
3.2
1007550250P.C.
WILL
IMPACT PROFITABLE USEFUL
ON
TO
TO
NOT BE
SOCIETY IMPLEMENTOR PUBLIC IMPLEMENTED
2.78
2.73
3.21
0.44
1. 62
2.62
1. S2
0.49
3.41
3.14
4.38
0.07
2.74
2.29
2.77
0.55
2.80
2.16
2.83
-0.48
2.49
2.25
2.66
0.51
2.89
2.28
3.61
0.44
3.29
2.65
3.52
0.24
0.0
r-I-I
O-
DEFENSE AGAINST A 100 MISSILE
SALVO ATTACK
LATER
100755025P.C.
NATIONWIDE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL
81-85
78-80
100-
7550250P.C.
GOVERNMENT OPERATED LOTTERIES AND
PARI-MUTUAL BETTING
75-77
0.0
0.0
1.8
0.0
17.9
23.1
64.3
1-1-1
8.9
1.8
5.4
t
7.7
67.7
1.5
0.0
10075-
SO250P. C •
H
H
H
.
-.I
0.0
0.0
3.5
1:1--------1
70.2
17.5
3.5
5.3
oliO
CONSOLInATED PUBLIC fIELFARF. SYS'1E!fS1007550250P.C.
NATIONAL HEALTll INSURANCE SYSTEf.!S
0.0
1.7
1.7
1-1--------1
65.0
10075-
I
SO2S0P.C.
AUTOMATED WEATHER FOR ECASTI NG
lJETROPOLITAN PLANNING MODELS
1007550250P.C.
1007550250P.C.
26.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
7.5
3.4
0.0
1-1--------1
60.4
28.3
1.7
3.3
I
3.8
0.0
1-1--------1
G9.5
20.3
6.8
0.0
1-1--------1
59.3
37.0
3.7
0.0
------~~~:;;;~
GOVERNMENT SERVICES
APPLICATION TITLE
NATION-UIDE DRIVER AND T'ERICLE
DATA BANK
1970-71
0.0
0.0
78-80
1--------1-1
I
0.0
0.0
1.8
1--------1-1
~1.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
10075-
.....
I
VI
AUTOMATED PUBLIC LIBRARIES
250-
P.C.
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.6
70.3
10075250-
HUMAN RESOURCE SYSTEMS
PERSONAL DATA BANKS
1007550250P. C.
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.3~
2.39
2.39
2.58
-0.3~
2.73
2.07
2.35
-0.95
2.63
1.77
2.65
-0.82
2.17
1. 67
2.62
-O.7~
2.37
1. 75
2.35
0.75
2.95
1. 50
2.18
1. 26
3.19
1. 56
1. 83
1. 67
I
5.8
I
31. 5
~-----II
26.6
11.1
1.6
5.5
60.0
0.0
7.5
29.1
1-1-1
73.6
5.5
18.9
100755025-
1-1--1
0-
P.C.
2.66
I
I1-1--------1
· · L----.,
SO-
P.C.
I
II_I __
0.0
2.~7
1.8
36.5
1-1--------1
53.7
3.7
1007550250-
P.C.
NATION-WIDE VOTER REGISTRATION
0.0
2.3~
I
1-1--------1
51.9
IMPACT PROFITABLE USEFUL
WILL
ON
TO
TO
NOT BE
SOCIETY IMPLEMENTOR PUBLIC IMPLEMENTED
1.7
1~.5
~O.O
5.8
11EVER
5.1 .
66.1
27.1
so-
H
H
H
LATER
81-85
1007550250-
P.C.
NATIONAL LAND INVENTORY
0.0
1007550250-
P.C.
GOVERN~fEN'1'AL PLANNING SYSTEl·fS FOR
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
75-77
1007550250-
P.C.
AYTOMATED FINGERPRINT ANALYSIS
72-7~
COllT.
0.0
0.0
1.7
6.7
1.7
/
65.0
25.0
'\\
)
d£~~IQdXrQM_QI~~RI~XIQM
(
Automated Fingerprint
identify an arbitrary
current systems, both
zero unless one has a
Analysis -- The existence of a system that can, with reasonable probability,
print from a master file without supporting data. This is in contrast to
manual and automated, where the probability of locating a match is virtually
small set of suspects.
IU~dQX_dM~_rd~Qg
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MAJOR
GROUP TOTALS
10
EXPERT TOTALS
2
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
A.
SIGNIF.
LITTLE
25
23
3
2
1970-71 72-74
o
0
o
NO
2
o
3
3
78-80
23
1
81-85
22
LATER
1
o
1
1--------1-1
2
2
2
1--------1--------1
o
0
d~QgLE~dXIMQ_d~Q_~gXd~QrMQ_l4QXQg~
12
2
18
2
10
o
0
1
0
0
75-77
78-80
7
81-85
9
o
3
o
o
LATER
9
2
NEVER
2
o
Multi-attribute pattern matching.
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
B.
Mass data
45
1-- I-I
ASSET
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x-
0
1
storage of 10 billion
NECESSRY ASSET
GROUP TOTALS
35
11
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
C.
Ten-fold increase in image
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
37
1-- I-I
0
10x-
O.K.
10x+
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
10x1
O.K.
10x+
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
2
0
0
1
b~tes.
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x-
2
1--1---------1
D.
3
NEVER
8
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74
(
3
Development of some other physical identification means to replace identification for other than latent
fingerprints.
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
A.
0
IM~~~Mg~X4XIQ~_Q4Xg
75-77
0
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
HILL
PROFITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
NOT BE
VERY .'.tODERT f.fARGINAL
VERY
MODERT lJARGINAL IMPLEMENTED
10
27
17
13
28
11
7
0
0
0
37
4
I-I -I
processing technology: scanning, digital conversion, storage and display.
ASSET
7
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x -
2
1
1
0
lOx0
O.K.
35
1- I-I
10x+
7
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
0
0
0
Fingerprint scanning device.
NECESSRY
CROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
E.
Graphical
42
1--1-1
3
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >lOx-
2
0
10x-
O.K.
10x+
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
10x-
O.K.
10x+
1
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
0
0
0
0
storage and retrieval - one billion pages.
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
ASSET
12
ASSET
31
1---1-1
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x3
0
2
1
9
28
1--------1-1
III.76
s -- The utilization of automated control of airplanes in the patterns
:::::~~'::';:':::"";=T!::::;n:i~~~-EE~~f~at the ten lug-est metropolitan airports .•
I.fIfd'_Z:_4.!lIl...r8.k!!'~
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
WILL
USEPUL TO PUBLIC
PROFITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
NOT BE
VERY MODERT MARGINAL
VER:! MODERT MARGINAL Ii1PLEMENTED
21
36
8
39
19
8
12
5
B
2
10
3
1
1
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
LITTLE
22
1
MAJOR. SIGNIF.
GROUP TOTALS 25
26
EXPERT TOTALS 5
1
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
2
75-77
1970-71 72-74
o
0
o
NO
5
78-80
16
rUf~~UE~ZdZIQ!l_QdZ!
81-85
3Ei
LATER
9
NEVER
2
0
1--------1-1
73410
1--------1--------1
0
d'_Q!#E~4ZI.~Q_d~2_«!Z&~QI.!l~_ld'_ZQa~
A.
A major crash shortly after start up of the first system.
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
B.
78-80
6
3
81-85
7
2
LATER
4
1
NEVER
4
0
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74
17
29
12
2
12
4
7
3
1
4.
75-77
11
4
78-80
5
1
81-85
4
0
LATER
2
1
NEVER
2
0
«~Q!!.r«~fl_'dZd~r&rZr!~
No-fail system, both hardware and software.
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
B.
75-77
10
3
A major crash with substantial loss of life during take off or landing involving one of the jumbo
jets.
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
A.
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74
13
31
13
0
3
4
7
3
1
0
NECESSRY
49
1--1-1
12
ASSET
4
1
USEFUl, SOME USE NO NEl!D >10x0
1
0
0
0
1--1- 1
10x-
O.X.
10x+
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
(
0
On-board computers for fast response and emergency back up.
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
NECESSRY
49
1--1-1
11
1- -1- I
ASSET
4
2
USEFUL SOME Ui'JE NO NEED >10x1
0
0
0
0
0
III.77
10l'-
O.X.
10x+
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
/
Automated Public Librarie$ -- The availability in 20 percent of the metropolitan areas of computerized
librarIes providing terminal searches in the library of abstracts of their documents and automated
retrieval and delivery of the selected document or a copy of it.
l.Ml?&QX_.4.N.1LY..4.ItI!.i
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
f/.TLL
PROFITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL '1'0 PUBLIC
NOT BE
VERY MODERT MARGINAL
VERY MODERT MARGINAL IMPLEMENTED
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MAJOR
GROUP TOTALS 11
EXPERT TOTALS 2
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
SIGNIF.
37
10
9
78-80
1
o
o
0
7
2
o
75-77
1970-71 72-74
o
0
o
NO
LITTLE
28
o
22
1
3..
20
32
16
710
..
13
2
20
..
l.~l?ItiMEN.XAIl.QN._~.4.XK
81-85
45
LArER
NEVER
1
17
1-1--------1
15
7
1-/--------1
0
4QQ"~4Xl.N.a_&~Q_&EX4RQl.~Q_~4QXQ&~
A.
Availability of two-way switched CATV in 20% of the metropolitan areas.
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74
GROUP TOTALS
11
25
18
0
1
5
10
5
0
1
EXPERT TOTALS
B. Federal subsidy.
75-77
13
4
78-80
22
11
81-85
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74
75-77
10
78-80
13
81-85
10
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
A.
(.
27
9
20
B
5
1
0
0
4
2
5
LATER
6
1
4
NEVER
o
o
2
o
LATER
..o
3
NEVER
6
3
Mass storage -. 1 trillion bXtes.
NECESSRY ASSET USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10xGROUP TOTALS
31
21
3
0
1
3
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
EXPERT TOTALS
11
7
0
0
0
0
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
.71.
Search engine 100 times as fast as today IS.
10x13
O.K.
30
10x+
5
1--------1-1
1
12
2
1-1-1
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
100
o
o
o
NECESSRY ASSET USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x10x100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
O.K.
GROUP TOTALS
12
36
7
0
1
1
B
34
1
0
0
CONSENSUS
1- - 1-I
1-1-1
EXPERT TOTALS
4
10
4
o
o
o
1
13
2
o
o
o
CONSENSUS
1--1-1
1-1-1
C.
Automated system for entry of the published data, includes multifont readers, page turners and
selective scan to distinguish an article from its adjacent material and to follow continued on
page x situations.
c
NECESSR! ASSET USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10xGROUP TOTALS
14
39
2
3
0
CONSENSUS
1--1-1
EXPERT TOTALS
..
16
0
0
0
CONSENSUS
1--1-1
D.
Automated ahstracting system.
10><-
O.K.
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
NECESSRJ ASSET
CROUP TOTALS
19
3 ..
CONSENSUS
1----------1-1
EXPERT TOTALS
4
14
CONSENSUS
1--1-1
E. Computer network control.
10x-
O.K.
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
10x-
(I.K.
10x-
O.K.
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x..
0
0
1
o
o
NECESSRY ASSET USEFUL SONE USE NO NEED >10xGROUP TOTALS
10
26
13
5
3
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
EXPERT TOTALS
2
11
6
.1
0
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
F.
Document display and reproduction terminal $50 per month.
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
NECESSRY
19
ASSET
33
1----------1-1
6
12
1----------1-1
U3EFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x4
2
0
o
1
o
III.78
0
o
o
o
10x+
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
45
1-/-1
12
1-1-1
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
1
o
0
0
o
o
o
Automated Weather Foreoa~~1~ .~~ The availability of an automated weather forecasting system capable of
producing weather fotecastli or :t.wo week$ in advance which are at least as accurate as todayts two-tothree· day forecasts..
.
..
LHf£'X_d«Q_Z4~Q~
.
.
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
WILL
NOT BE
PROFITABLE 1'0 IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
VERY
MO~ERT
MAgGINAL
VERY
MODERT MARGINAL IMPLEMENTED
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MA,JOR
GROUP TOTALS
20
EXPERT TOTALS
6
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
39
20
8
4
o
o
78-80
41
75-77
2
1970-71 72-74
11
0
o
NO
LIT'rLE
SIGNIF.
as
17
46
20
6
12
1
7
6
~3
5
0
1
IH~~~~:4fI~~_~4X~
81-85
12
LA1!ERNEVER
4
1-1--------1
13
1
0
13
3
0
0
0
1-1-1
A"~L~~4xl~a_4~Q_g~X4gQI~a_ld'XQ«~
A.
Development of spaceborne weather sensors.
. ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74
30
12
5
:I.
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
11
:I.
8
2
0
5
75-77
17
6
78-80
9
2
81-85
0
0
LATER
NEVER
0
0
0
0
Bi~Ql~~Q_'4E4~l~IXI~~
A.
Mass storage of one trillion bytes for the statistical experience (what weather patterns produce
rain and where, e.g.)
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
B.
Processor
ASSET
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x-
10x-
16
32
3
1
0
2
B
3
10
1
0
0
0
2
1----------1-1
1--1-1
33
1-1-1
8
10,,+
2
2
100"+ 1000"+ >1000,,+
0
0
0
0
0
0
1-1-1
performance of 100 MIPS (millions of instructions per second. )
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
C.
Core storage
18
ASSET
23
1----------1-1
4
8
1----------1-1
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED
B
0
1
1
0
0
>1o,,1
0
10"10
3
O.K.
29
10"+
4
/
100"+ 1000x+ >1000"+
~-~
0
0
0
1--1-1
B
1--------1-1
0
0
0
0
of 10 million bytes.
NECESSRY
ASSET
USEFUL SOME USE NO NSP'[I >10"GROUP TOTALS
37
3
0
11
1
1
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
EXPERT TOTALS
10
0
2
0
1
CONSENSUS
1--1-1
D. Advanced data base management.
10x2
NECESSRY
ASSET
USEFUL SO!.fE USE NO NEED >10"GROUP TOTALS
33
14
5
0
1
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
EXPERT TOTALS
12
1
1
0
0
CONSFNSUS
1- -1- I
E. Massive communication interface for collection of worldwide
10"-
°
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
O.K.
ASSET
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10,,-
47
2
3
0
1
11
1
1
0
1
1--1-1
1--1-1
II!.79
1
O.K.
42
1-1-1
10
I ..,f -I
O.K.
10,,+
1
0
100"+ 1000"+ >1000,,+
0
0
0
0
0
0
10"+
100"+ 1000"+ >1000,,+
10"+
100,,+ 1000"+ >1000"+
weather data.
10"-
O.K.
Consolidated Public Welfar.e S£items -- The implementation of systems to manage all aspects of public welfare
in ten states. The system rna talns an integrated data base of welfare, unemployment and workman's
. (I"!ompensation recipients.
rME~QX_d~~_Yd~Q'
fVILL
REASONS POR IMPLEMENTATION
PROFITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
NOT BE
VER:!
MODERT MARGINAL
VERY MODERT
MARGINAL IMPLEMENTED
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MAJOR
GROUP TOTALS
18
EXPERT TOTALS
7
SIGNIF.
o
o
23
6
1970-71 72-74
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
NO
LITTLE
38
10
o
1
o
0
75-77
14
27
24
25
30
57879
78-80
39
1
14
6
13
2
lli~~EM:~rdlrQ~_~dX~
81-85 LATER NEVER
16
1
2
1
0
1-1--------1
16
1
3
1-1-1
~":~~~4rr~a_~~2_Egrd~QI~Q_l4QrQR~
A.
Consolidation of welfare systems under a federal agency.
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFEC'! 1910-71 72-74
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
A.
NECESSRY
0
ASSET
17
1--1---------1
6
8
1----------1-1
8
6
75-77
8
1
81-85
7
LATER
NEVER
7
3
4
4
2
R~QQla~a-'~~~~l~lrl~~
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10><3
0
1
4
1
78-80
13
2
0
1
1
10x13
O.K.
30
1--------1-1
5
7
1--------1-1
10x+
0
0
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
0
0
0
0
0
0
Automated generation of information systems.
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
C.
30
1
0
4
Mass data storage, 100 billion b;ites.
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
B.
18
5
31
15
NECESSRY
4
o
ASSET
30
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10><-
13
1--1---------1
10
5
1--1---------1
3
2
o
2
10x-
O.K.
10x13
O.K.
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
Search engine 100 times today's capabilities.
llECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
12
4
ASSET
25
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x7
4
3
3
1--1---------1
7
2
1---1---------1
1
III,aO
2
1
28
1--------1-1
2
9
1-1-1
10x+
3
1
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
0
0
0
0
0
0
Ivo Attack -- The Emistence of a computerized system capable of detecting,
~~~~~~~~~~~:':;::::'::;:;:;:i."';'.~r~Q~ui-trn~CJ::'::'J.rn~tFer·ceptor mfss~e eo destroy an attack by 100.missiles.
f''''
('
\
'",-- ./
rMZ~QX_A~~_rAkQ~
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
WILL
NOT BE
PROFITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
VERY MOVERT MARGINAL
VERY MODERT MARGINAL IMPLEMENTED
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MAJOR
GROUP TOTALS
26
EXPERT TOTALS
3
LITTLE
SIGNIF.
NO
o
~
75-77
2
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
o
78-00
40
16
1
14 '
3
rMl?U~E:fZXdx.rQD._~A.X.~
81-85 LATER NEVER
10
1-1--------1
o
0
22
15
21
3~
9
2 2 0 3 0
7
1
21
20
6
2
2
3
0
1
1-1--------1
dQQlillB.4.U.~Q_.1ll12_B.IXdB.Q..r.lI.a_r~Qx.QB.J.
A. Failure to the SALT talks.
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
B. Development
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74
27
6
12
5
16
5
1
1
1
6
75-77
6
0
78-80
3
0
81-85
0
0
LATER
81-85
1
0
LATER
1
0
NEVER
2
0
of intercontinental missile capability by Red China.
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74
19
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
21
1
~
5
2
11
2
1
0
75-17
22
5
78-BO
5
0
0
0
NEVER
0
0
B.IQQ.r.B.IQ_QdE4HLk.r.X.r.I~
A. Very high performance 1000 MIPS (million of instructions per second.)
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
37
1- -1-1
5
1--1-1
ASSET
6
1
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10)(2
0
0
0
0
0
10)(5
33
10)( ...
0
100)( ... 1000)( ... >1000)( ...
0
1
0
O.K.
35
10)( ...
0
100)( ... 1000)(+ >1000x ...
0
0
0
10)( ...
100)( ... 1000)( ... >1000)( ...
O.K.
1-1-1
0
B. Response time of one usee.
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
ASSET
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10)(-
31
10
1
0
1
2
3
0
0
0
1--1---------1
1----------1-1
1
10)( 2
1-1-1
C. Network control.
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
4~
ASSET
001
1
o
1--1-1
6
1--1-1
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEEn '>10x-
1
o
III.al
o
10)(-
O.K.
"'./
4ff'l'4tlQl_~~l'BlfllQ!
Government Operating Lotter~es and Pari-Mutual Bettinq -- The use of computer-assisted systems in
10 percent of the states to support state lotteries and off-track betting. The systems would include
the data processing associated with the administration of such systems and the calculation of odds
and payoffs for the pari-mutual outlets.
LHf4'l_41~_l4kM~
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
WILLBli:
NOT
PROFITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
IMPLEMF:NTED
VERY MODERT MARGINAL
VERY MODERT MARGINAL
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MAJOR
GROUP TOTALS
6
EXPERT TOTALS 2
14
27
9
II
5
2
75-77
10
1970-71 72-74
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
NO
LITTLE
SIGNIp.
o
1
o
1
13
29
8
353
78-80
36
2
lMfL~~llf4flQI_~4t'
81-85
5
1- I- I
2
10
3
16
30
057
8
LAtER
0
NEVER
1
3
0
0
1--------1-1
4'~LlB4ll«~_4Ia_Hll4BalIQ_Z4'tQB~
A.
Success of pilo1n,installetion
'(Nftct';
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EPPECT 1970-71 72-74
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
8
5
10
1
21
3
75-77
2
17
9
2
3
0
78-80
3
1
81-85
0
0
LATER
NEVli:R
0
0
0
0
H~~QlB~a_'4f4BILIll~
A. Ten-fold increase in hardware security features.
(
NECESSRY ASSF:T USF:FUL SOME USE NO NEED >10><1
1
1
3
29
14
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
0
0
0
1
5
EXPERT TOTALS
3
CONSENSUS
1----------1-1
B. Massive communication interface 10,000 lines.
10><3
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10"-
10"7
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
ASSET
16
28
I--I-------~-I
5
3
3
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
1--1---------1
III. 82
1
1
O.K.
35
1-1-1
II
10"+
1
0
100"+ 1000><+ >1000><+
0
0
0
0
0
0
1-1-1
O.K.
34
1-1-1
5
1-1-1
10"+
1
0
100"+ 1000x+ >1000x+
0
0
0
0
0
0
I
-
4l!I!li.l.k4tI.Qlf._lZlekllUUJZl! '.
Governmental Plannin sastems for' .velopinq Countri.es -- The utilization by 5 percent of the "Emerging
Nations Ii of computer
s,ys"tiilis ~o,pl~IntRnatIonaltrade # internal distdbution, communications,
transportation, busines$. opportuniti.es,resource developJl\ent, etc.
I-"iii!
lHf4't_4IlZ_I"Q~
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
WILL
PROFITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
NO']' BE
VERY MODERT MARGINAL
VERY MODERT MARGINAf, IMPLFMENTED
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MAJOR
GROUP TOTALS 1 0
EXPERT ~OTALS 2
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TO'fALS
CONSENSUS
LITTLE
SIGNIF.
3~
12
4
3
1970-71 72-74
o
0
o
NO
o
78-80
75-77
o
3
o
0
8
2~
15
260
o
1
12
23
12
19
~
3
2
1
Ufli.IHllt4flQI_lZ4U
81-85
LATER
NEVER
27
19
3
3
..
0
I-'-'-----~-I
1----'-----,
"'Ili.IB4Xlla_4IQ_HIX4HlZlla_l4'tQBe
A. Joint U.S. - USSR funding effort.
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EPFECT 1970-71 72-74
GROUP TO'l'ALS
17
16
0
6
0
EXPERT TOTALS
0
1
2
0
B. Availability of planning model.
75-77
5
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFPTlfC'l' 1970-71 72-74
75-77
..
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
12
2B
2
5
0
0
1
0
78-80
8
2
1
1
1
8
2
78-80
14
1
81-85
3
0
LATER
81-85
LATER
NEV!?R
5
1
12
2
NEVER
4
0
8
2
1
0
HlgQlH~lZ_'4f4~I.~tlle
A. Model development service.
NECESSRY ASSET USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10)(GROUP TOTALS
30
10
6
0
0
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
EXPERT TOTALS
4
0
0
2
1
CONSF:NSUS
B. Mass storage of 100 billion bytes.
10x-
O.K.
10x+
100)(+ 1000)(+ >1000)(+
;'
'"
,--,---------,
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSP,NSUB
NECESSRY
28
ASSET
12
1--'---------,
3
3
1----------1-1
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10)(-
10)(-
3
1
1
1
3
0
0
1
0
0
O.K.
,-,-,
5
4
1
'-I-I
III. 83
10)(+
31
100)(+ 1000)(+ >1000)(+
1
0
0
0
0
0
/
Human Resource Systems -- The availability of international communications-based systems designed to
evaluate and recommend alternative!optimum solutions to world health and welfare problems: such as
population growth, food resources management, and general economic well being.
I~f4't-4«Q_l4~~~
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
WILL
PROFITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
NOJ' BliJ "
VERY MOVERT MARGINAL
VERY MODERT MARGINAL IMPLEMF.NTED
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MAJOR
GROUP TOTALS 19
EXPERT TOTALS 1
SIGNIF.
NO
LIT'l'LE
27
7
3
2
1
20
18
3
041
o
16
15
10
131
26
2
I~E~~«I«f4X~Q~_n4X~
GROUP TOTALS
CONSP.NSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
1970-71 72-74
0
0
75-77
0
78-80
0
81-85
4
LATER
39
NEVER
10
1-1-1
0
0
0
0
0
7
1- 1- 1
0
4Q'l~IB4Xr«~_4«~_BlX4BQr«~_fdQXQHg
A. Legislated due to severe population or'pollution problems.
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74 75-77
9
GROUP TOTALS
14
0
1
1
14
EXPERT TOTALS
0
0
0
1
1
3
81-85
4
1
LATER
Nt?VF:R
12
6
2
0
B~~rB£Q_'4f4ar~rXr~~
A. Network control.
(
78-80
5
1
NECESSRY ASSP.T USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10lC1
aROUP TOTALS
32
2
1
11
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
0
EXPERT TOTALS
5
0
0
1
CONSENSlIS
1--1-1
B. Multi language interface capabi 11 ty •
10)(-
O.K.
10lC+
100)(+ 1000)(+ >1000x+
NP.CP.SSRY ASSP.T lISEFUL SOME liSE NO NEED >10lCaROllP TOTALS
33
2
1
11
1
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
EXPERT TOTALS
5
0
0
0
1
CONSENSlJS
1--1-1
C. Automated generation of information systems.
10lC-
O.K.
10)(+
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
NECRSSRY ASSET lJSP.FlJL SOME USE N(l NliJED >10lCaROIJP TOTALS
10
2 1•
8
2
3
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
EXPERT TOTALS
2
4
0
0
0
CONSENSUS
1----------1-1
D. Development of a human resources simulation model.
10)(-
O.K.
10lC+
100x+ 1000x+ >1000)(+
10x-
O.K.
10)(+
100)(+ 1000)(+ >1000x",
GROUP TOTALS
CONSRNSUS
EXPRRT TOTALS
CONSRNSUS
NECP.SSR'f
ASSET
USEFUL SOMP. liSE NO NP.ED >10lC-
41
5
1
0
1
5
1
0
0
a
1--1-1
1--1-1
III .84
4ff~lkdtlQ~~kHrfZlQI
Metropolitan Planning MOdels -- The utiliza't;ion l:>Y 5 peroent of the metropolitan areas of planning models
to aid officials in planning future expansion of oit~es. The models will p~ovide optimum population levels
by balanoinq suoh factor. a.: labor and job mix, t~ansportation oosts, tax base, recreational facilities,
school requirenients,enviromnent ~llution,·governl'ilent finanoing requirements, aesthetic qualities, e t c . c
IN.P.4Qr._4lf.IL.!4ItI!.1.
WILL
REASONS POR IMPLEMENTATION
NOT BJi:
PROFI'l'ABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL '1'0 PUBLIC
VEti! MODERT MARGINAL
VERY MODERT MARGINAL IMPLEMENTED
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MAJOR
GROUP TO'l'ALS 2.0
EXPERT TO'l'ALS 7
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
6
78-80
32
75-77
1977-71 72-74
o
0
o
5
1
30
22
6
761
lMf~~lf4tlQI_~4t!
81-85 LATER NEVER
20
2
0
1-1--------1
o
0
15
26
14
462
1
1
8
1
33
o
NO
LI'l''J'LE
SIGNIF.
9
4
0
0
1-1-------1
HrQal!!Q-'4P.4~l~LXl!~
A. Ten-fold inorease in simulation techniques.
NECESSR! ASSET USE.FUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x'""
0
1
·0
2
15
31
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
0
0
0
0
7
5
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
B. Mass storage of 10 billion bytes.
10x1
0
O.K.
34
1-1-1
7
10x+
5
0
100x+ 1000><+ >1000><+
0
0
0
0
0
0
1-1-1
10x+ 100><+ 1000><+ >1000><+
10xO.K.
NECESSR! ASSE'l' USEPUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x0
0
4
2
33
4
0
0
1
GROUP TOTALS
13
32
1
1-1-1
CONSENSUS
1----------1-1
0
0
0
1
7
1
0
0
0
0
4
6
EXPERT TOTALS
1-1-1
CONSENSUS
1----------1-1
C. Interactive terminal system including complex search and interactive pattern rna tching for assistance
in building the model.
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
29
ASSET
18
1--1---------1
8
4
USEPUL SOME USE NO NEED >10><1
0
1
0
0
0
1--1---------1
III.as
0
10x0
O.K.
23
1-1-1
10><+
3
100x+ 1000><+ >1000><+
0
0
0
"
'""
Nationwide Air Traffic Control -- The availability of a system for monitoring and controlling all air
traffic -- public, private, and military throughout continental United States.
C"
IMfd~l_4!~_Ed~~~
WILL
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
NOT BE
PROFITABLE '1'0 IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL '1'0 PUBLIC
VERY MODERT MARGINAL
VERY MODERT MARGINAL IMPLEMENTED
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MAJOR
GROUP TOTALS 3a
EXPERT TOTALS 9
NO
LITTLE
SIGI]IF.
~
30
30
63
3
17
1
23
o
lq
3
63
12
13
2
1
0
Ii
2
o
l~f~EME~X411QI_QdXl
1970-71
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
A.
o
75-77
lS
0
78-aO
~q
a1-a5
5
1-1-1
5
5
1--------1-1
0
LATER
NEVER
1
0
200
dQ'l~lgdXI!Q~4liQ_gKXdgQI~Q_~4QXQa~
Three major accidents in a period of six months involving mid-air collisions.
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-7q
30
10
GROUP TOTALS
18
0
13
7
EXPERT TOTALS
3
0
2
1
B.
Federal appropriation for the system.
75-77
9
2
78-aO
6
2
al-as
3
0
LATER
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-H
GROUP TOTALS
33
~
21
0
13
EXPERT TOTALS
7
~
0
0
1
C.
Rejection of the system by the pilots association.
75-77
27
7
7a-aO
S
1
al-a5
3
1
LATER
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-H
75-77
2
0
7a-80
3
0
ai-aS
7
1
LATER
CROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
A.
(
o
72-7~
23
6
25
3
5
1
0
0
5
3
NEVER
5
2
1
0
NEVER
0
0
0
0
NEVER
22
6
0
4
gKQ~IBK2_Q4f4~1~IXI~~
No-fail system; both hardware and software.
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
46
CONSENSUS
1--1-1
EXPERT TOTALS
9
CONSENSUS
1-- I-I
E.
Network control.
ASSET
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10><-
9
1
0
1
0
1
0
0
NECESSRY ASSET USEFUL SONE USE NO NEED >10xGROUP TOTALS
53
2
1
0
1
CONSENSllS
1--1-1
EXPERT TOTALS
10
0
0
0
0
CONSENSUS
1--1-1
C.
Interactive three-dimensional display.
10><-
O.K.
10><+
100><+ 1000x+ >1000x+
10><-
O.K.
10x+
100><+ 1000x+ >1000x+
"EeESSRY ASSET USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10><10><10x+ 100x+ 1000><+ >1000x,,"
O.K.
GROUP TOTALS
18
3~
3
0
1
CONSEllSUS
1----------1-1
EXPRRT TOTALS
3
7
0
0
0
CONSENSUS
1----------1-1
n. Reliable position and identification transponders for all aircraft $1,000 Eurchase.
NECESSRY ASSET USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10)(~
10>10><-
1
0
2
5
0
0
0
0
10><16
O.K.
45
1-1-1
7
1-1-1
O.K.
29
1--------1-1
4
3
1-1--------1
III. 86
10><;.
2
0
10";.
0
0
100,,+ 1000><+ >1000x+
0
0
0
0
0
0
100x+ 1000,,+ >1000><+
0
0
0
0
0
0
Nationwide Driver and Vehicle Data Bank -- A national data bank of driver and vehicle licensing information.
The system would be u$eCiby atates to determil:'e elo.g~bility for license of a new resident a~d to che~k
ownership of vehicles ~inq newly registered J.n the state. The system would contain consolJ.dated drl.ving
records and could be sold to ineuanee companies for use in determining premium rates.
l~f~QX_41~_E4~~1
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
TYILL
PROFITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
NOT BE
VERI· MODERT MARGINAL
VERI MODERT MARGINAL IMPLEMENTED
10
29
16
15
25
15
7
2
13
4
5
10
3
3
IMPACT ON SOCIETI
MAJOR
GROUP TOTALS
9
EXPERT TOTALS
4
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
SIGNIF.
1970 .. 71 72-74
o
0
o
22
NO
3
5
1
LITTLE
26
10
75-77
78-80
16
o
1
1
0
~IQUL~l~_Qdf4~I~lXIl~
NECESSl?1
B. Ten times
3
,--------'-1
A. Network control.
CROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
39
,--------,-,
.5
11
o
0
LHf~~l!:4XrQ!_~4Xl
81-85 LATER NEVER
37
ASSET
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x-
11
2
1
1--'---------,
11
3
1
0
1--'---------1
improvement in security features.
1
10x-
O.K.
10x1
O.K.
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
0
NECESSRI ASSET USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10xCROUP TOTALS
31
11
7
0
2
0
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
7
6
1
0
0
0
CONSENSUS
C. ~!ass storage 100 billion bytes.
'--1---------1
1------1-----1
0
39
'-'-I
10
10x+
4
1
100x+ 1000><+ >1000x+
0
0
0
0
0
0
1-'-'
/"
NECESSRY
CROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
D. Advanced
35
ASSET
USEFUL SOMe USE NO NEED >10x-
12
3
I - '- I - - - - - - - - - I
8
4
1--'---------1
data base management.
NECESSRY
CROUP TOTALS
ZONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
34
ASSET
15
1--1---------1
9
6
'--1---------1
2
0
0
1
0
0
0
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x-
1
0
1
0
0
0
III.87
10x11
O.K.
31
1-'-1
5
6
1--------,-,
10x-
O.K.
10><+
5
1
10x+
100x+ ·1000><+ >1000x+
0
0
0
0
0
0
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
/
4lfkl'4llQl_~~~QHlfXIQl
National Health Insurance :astems -- A system to support the requirements of a National Health Insurance
Proqram. It would be link
to and support state/reqional administration locations.
(
ZHl4Ql_4IQ_14kU~
WILL
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
PROFITAB.LE TO IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
NOT BE
VERY MODERT MARGINAL
VF.RY MODERT MARGINAL IMPLF:MENTED
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MArlOR
GROUP TOTALS
9
EXPERT TOTALS 3
SIGNIP.
1970-71
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
A.
9
15
1
72-7~
75-77
'10
2
8
3
o
26
6
15
16
22
11
562
~
10
o
ZHfk~H~lf4flQl_Q4f~
o
0
o
0
78-80
32
~
81-85
15
LATER
NEVER
2
0
0
0
1-1--------1
4
6
1
1--------1-1
4'Qlk~H4llIQ_4~Q_H~l4HQl!Q_e4QlQH~
Passaqe of enabling leqislation.
GROUP TOTALS
1?XPF:RT TOTALS
A.
LITTLE
29
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74
23
15
1
R
Mass storage of 100 billion
NECESSRY ASSET
GROUP TOTALS
29
15
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
EXPERT TOTALS
3
~
CONSENSUS
1----------1-1
B. Network control.
0
0
1
0
7
75-77
16
78-80
8
~
3
81-85
LATER
0
2
NEVER
0
0
2
0
3
~~.
USEPUL SOME USE NO NF:ED >10x-
10x-
2
0
1
0
2
0
0
1
0
1
O.K.
38
1-1-1
5
10x+
1
0
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
0
0
0
0
0
0
1-1-1
t
C
NECESSRY ASSET USF:PUL SOMF: USF: NO NEED >10xGROUP TOTALS
37
0
8
1
1
CONSENSUS
1--1-1
EXPERT TOTALS
7
0
0
1
0
CONSENSUS
1--1 -I
C. Advanced data base management system.
GRO UP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
NECESSRY
42
ASSRT
1
0
1
0
1
0
0
1--1-1
7
1--1-1
[fST::FllL SOME USE NO NF:ED >10)(-
3
III. SS
10x-
O.K.
10x+
100x+ 1000xi" >1000xi"
10 x -
O.K.
10xi"
100)(i" 1000xi" >1000xi"
National Land Invento~ -- Theimplementation~of a system to. maintain an inventory of the uses of the nations
land. Proposed new uses wdUld .b9 evaluated against a plan developed to consider the optimum use of our
national land asset. The plan.would balance competing uses for commercial, residential, recreational,
urban, suburban, rural, e:te., taking into account economical, so(:ialO9'ioal, ecological, and aesthetic
considerations.
rUAkX_AlfILIAlilLP;
.
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
WILL
NOT BE
PROFITABLE 10 IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL '1'0 PUBLIC
VERY MODERT MARGINAL
VERY MODERT MARGINAL IMPLEMENTED
IMPAC'! ON SOCIETY
MAJOR
GROUP TOTALS
13
EXPERT TOTALS
6
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
LIT'!LE
SIGNXE'.
28
5
78.-80
2
75-77
o
o
0
4
24
18
18
22
15464
2
o
2
1970-71 72-74
o
0
o
NO
.14
17
3
r«~~iUP;l:AlI.~l-QAXP;
81-85 LAtER NEVER
17
29
1-1--------1
5
4
1-1--------1
2
8
0
6
0
dP;Q[f.rdP;Q_'A~&~rlirXrp;~
A.
Mass data storage of 100 billion bytes.
NECESSRY ASSET USEFUL SOME TJSE NO NEED >10xGROUP TOTALS
34
1
0
0
13
1
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
EXPERT TOTALS
7
0
0
3
0
0
CONSENSTJS
1--'---------1
B. Advanced data base management system.
10x4
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x-
10x-
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
C. Development
44
1--1-1
10
1--1- I
ASSET
3
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
1
O.K.
31
1-1-1
6
1-1-1
O.K.
10x~
100x~
1000x~
>1000x~
8
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
10x~
100x~
1000x~
>1000x+
,/
of a complex land model.
\,,< -~
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
33
ASSET
12
1--1---------1
8
1
1--1-1
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x-
3
0
1
1
0
0
III."
10x-
O.K.
10x+
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
4ff'lk4XIQ!_Ql~~HlfXIQI
on --
(
existence of a data bank containing nationwide registration data on
~a~l~vo~t~e~r~s~.~V~o~t~e~r~s~wo~u~~~e~r·equired to report ohanges of address. Cities and states would use data
bank to determine voter eligibility.
~e
lHf4~X_4«Q_14'Q~
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
WILL
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
NOT BF:
PROFITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
VF,RY MODERT MARG.[NAL IMPLp.Mp.NTEn
Vl?RY MODTrR'l' MARGINAL
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MAJOR
GROUP TOTALS 11
EXPERT TOTALS 5
SIGNIP.
LITTLE
22
NO
2
21
2
6
19
2
22
7
4
0
0
15
17
15
15
3
4
2
4
ZHf~~~~!l4lIQ!_~4X!
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
A.
(
75-77
1970-71 72-74
o
0
o
78-80
o
o
0
81-85
3
LATER
33
o
NEVER
16
3
1-1--------1
6
5
2
1--------1-1
Hlg~IH~Q_'4f4RI'lll~~
Security/fraud detection and prevention facilities.
NECESSRY ASSET USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10><45
0
0
GROUP TOTALS
1
1
CONSENSUS
1--1-1
0
0
0
EXPERT TOTALS
11
o·
CONSENSUS
1--1-1
B. Mass data storage of 100 billion bltes.
10><-
O.K.
10><+
100><+ 1000"+ >1000><+
NECESSRY ASSET
GROUP TOTALS
14
30
CONSl?NSUS
1--1---------1
EXPERT TOTALS
7
4
CONS1?NSUS
1--1---------1
C. Network control.
10x-
O.K.
10x+
3
100"+ 1000><+ >1000"+
0
0
0
NECESSRY
CROUP TOTALS
CONSl?NSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
32
ASSET
10
1--1---------1
9
1--1 -I
2
USEFUL SOME USE NO NF.ED >10><2
0
0
0
3
0
0
0
0
1
USP-PUL SOME USE NO NEED >10><2
1
1
o
o
o
III.90
10"-
38
1-1-1
7
1-1-1
O.K.
1
0
0
0
Aff~lQAllQI~Q~QHlfXlQI
Personal Data BMrke -- 'l'I'te creation of a system that loqical,ly integrates all data related to individuals
includinq but noE limited to financial information, credit latinqs, criminal conviction records, medical
histories, scholastic histol:ies, ce.nsus, data, etc. '!'he ..individual would have complete access to the contents of his file and. would ~ave leqalrecourse to chanqeany errOneous entries. No other files, public
or private, conunercialor qovermnental could leqallyobntainpersQnal i~ormation. Access to the files
would be available to orqanizations with a ,need but it would be rigoruously controlled to prevent loss of
priva.cy.
l~fAQ2:_4IQ_ULL!~
W.nL
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
NOT BE
PROPITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
VERY MODERT MARGINAL
VER! MODERT MARGINAL IMPLEMENTED
NO
MAJOR SIGNIF. LITTLE
35
4
23
9
14
11
12
o
6
GROUP TOTALS 30
15
181
5
. 3
3
14
o
o
EXPERT TOTALS 15
3
4~fL~~~!fAXZQI_Q4X~
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
75-77
1970-71 72-74
o
0
o
78-80
1
81~85
1
LATER
NEVER
15
439
(- f --I
1
0
0
1
14
6
(-1--------1
H!QQIB!Q_QAfA~lLlll~~
A.
Mass data storaqe of 100 trillion bytes.
NECESSRY
42
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
1--1-1
14
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
1--(-1
B. Network control.
ASSP.T
NECESSRY
ASSP.T
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
C.
44
3
1
1
3
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
1
0
0
0
1
10)(12
O.K.
31
1--------(-1
6
7
10x+
0
0
100)(+ 1000)(+ >1000)(+
0
0
0
0
0
0
1--------1-1
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x-
2
1--1-1
15
U.SEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x-
1
10x-
O.K.
10)(+
100)(+ 1000)(+ >1000x+
1--\-\
Massive communication interface 100,000 lines.
".
10x6
NECESSRY ASSET (ISEPUl. SOME USE NO NEED >10xGROUP TOTALS
44
2
0
0
3
CONSENSUS
\--\-1
EXPERT TOTALS
16
0
0
1
0
CONSENSUS
\--1-(
E. Ten-times improvement in security features.
10x-
O.K.
10)(+
100)(+ 1000x+ >1000)(+
NECESSRY ASSET USEFUL SOME
CROUP TOTALS
44
3
2
CONSENSUS
1--1-1
EXPERT TOTALS
0
14
?
CONSENSUS
1--1-1
F. One hundred times improvement in privacy
10x0
O.K.
10x+
17
100x+ 1000)(+ >1000)(+
0
6
0
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
COllSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
ASSET
USE NO NEED >10x0
0
0
0
0
0
10)(+
0
1-1-1
2
10
0
0
0
0
1-1-1
0
22
/--------1-1
7
2
3
0
0
features.
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10)(-
5
3
0
0
0
11
3
1
0
0
0
1--1-.,.-------1
38
(-(---------1
40
\':'-1-1
O.K.
100x+ 1000)(+ >1000)(+
0
0
0
NECESSRY ASSET USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10)(0
GROUP TOTALS
38
6
3
2
1
CONSP,NSUS
1--1-1
0
EXPERT TOTALS
13
0
1
0
2
CONSENSUS
1--1-1
D. Advanced data base manaqement system.
10)(2
0
O.K.
36
10)(+
5
100x+ 1000)(+ >1000)(+
0
0
1
1-(-(
9
/-/-1
2
0
0
0
r
0
III.91
/
HOHE TERMINALS
(
The decade of the 80's will witness the beginning use of
terminals in the home to tap the power of the computer and
the benefits of a high capacity, widespread communications
network. The panel projects that the use of home terminals
will exceed the point where one out of one hundred families
has one installed in the 1980-1985 period.
The initial impetus will be brought about by the general
availability of Cable Area Television (CATV) providing high
speed, two-way communication channels into the home. The
CATV supplier will use the capacity to provide individualized
news and entertainment in response to the users request.
The selected program is sent to the requesting terminal at
high speed at the viewers convenience. With this capability
a viewer could "browse" through the day's news events and then
request increasing levels of detail as his interest dictates,
in much the same manner as we now read a newspaper.
The addition in 1985 of switching capabilities to CATV networks
will provide an opportunity for entrepreneurs to provide a
wide range of services to the home consumer. They include: home
education via Computer Assisted Instruction (CAI) for all levels
from pre-school to post-graduate refresher courses, home shopping services, home banking, automatic meter readings, burglar
and fire alarm monitoring, control of home appliances, etc.
Businesses will take advantage of the terminal to make it
possible for many white collar and management functions to be
accomplished from a home work center without the necessity of
commuting to a place of employment. The terminal would provide
the worker with access to all the information, work materials,
people and services he would normally have, including secretarial.,
filing and retrieval, mail pickup and delivery, and conference
type communication hookups. Only unavoidable face-to-face
meetings, on-site inspections, etc. would cause the worker to
have to commute to the office and these occasions could be
scheduled as business trips are now.
Some home terminal applications may precede the advent of
general purpose home terminals due either to the magnitude
of the need or because a linited set of facilities such as
provided by picturephones may be adequate. For example, home
CAI may become a major need, if existing education facilities
fail to meet enlarging needs. Families may find it more
economical to spend relatively large sums of money to provide
special terminals and communication channels for home education rather than use expensive private schools. As another
example, home shopping has been tried in San Diego using
television and existing telephones. The panel suggests that
this application may be viable prior to 1980 using the picturephone.
III.92
I
I
I
~
r
I
HOlfE TERrtINALS
APPLICATION TITLE
1970-71 72-74
75-77
78-90
LAT'EP
81-85
NEVER
HOME COMPUTER ASSISTED INSTRUCTION 100. 7550250-
P.C.
HOME SHOPPING SERVICES
.
3:2
1--------1-1
22.6
0.0
0.0
1.5
4.6
10075SO250-
.P.C.
H
H
H
0.0
1007550250-
P.C.
MULTIPLE USE HOffE TERMINAL
0.0
5B.l
I
I
0.0
0.0
0.0
16.1
16.1
'-
10xGROUP TOTALS
46
6
2
0
1
0
CONSENSUS
1--1-1
EXPERT TOTALS
13
3
0
0
0
0
CONSENSUS
1--1-1
B.
High capacity two-way communication channels.
10x0
NECESS!?Y
ASSET
GROUP TOTALS
31
18
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
EXPERT TOTALS
8
8
CONSENSUS
1----------1-1
C.
Availability comparable to
10x-
O.K.
10x+
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
10x-
O.K.
10xT
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
NECESSRI
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
/).
11
2
35
1
0
5
0
0
1
14
1-1-1
15
,-, -I
10x+
1
0
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
0
0
0
0
0
0
today's telephone service.
USEFUL SOUE USE NO !lEE') >10x-
7
1
3
1
0
0
1--1-1
1--1-1
·47
Course preparation language to reduce the preparation cost by a factor of 10 over today's CAl systems
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
(-~ CONSENSUS
E.
ASSET
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x-
0
O.K.
15
ASSET
34
1----------1-1
2
12
1--1-1
USEFUL SOMJi1 USE NO NEED >10x3
0
1
1
0
1
0
0
10x6
3
NECESSRI
9
2
ASSET
33
1--1-1
11
1--1-1
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x8
1
2
1
2
1
37
0
III. 94
0
10x16
11
O.K.
31
,--------1-1
5
10x+
2
1-1-1
1-1-1
Massive communication interface 100,000 lines.
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
O.K.
10
1--------1-1
0
10x+
0
0
100x+ 1000x+ >:1.000x+
1
0
0
0
0
0
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
0
0
0
0
0
0
Home Shopping Serviees -- ,The avaUability via ~ terminal, to' 1 percent of the homes of a home shopping
service. products WOuld be displayed and d&acrJ,bed in response to inquiries. Purchases can be entered
at the terminal and transmitt~ to producers and distributors.
C-"
./
l.Mf4'X_4lilLU.ttIl.~
,
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
WILL
PROFITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
NOT BE
VERY MODgET MARGINAL
VERY MODERT MARGINAL IMPLEMENTED
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MA.JOR
GROUP TOTALS
11
EXPERT TOTALS
3
34
31
4
8
A.
22
o
o
0
1
o
0
o
32 ,
3
7
78-8081-85
3
51
LATER
8
1-1-1
2
12
16
3
3
NEVER
2
2
14
27
13
0
7
4
9
2
0
1
1
75-77
10
78-80
17
4
6
LATER
NEVER
0
0
2
0
2
8
1
26
7
22
6
0
0
1
0
75-77
8
3
78-80
13
4
81-85
12
LATER
NEVER
6
3
1
2
1
FCC regulation allowing new two-way switched communication networks.
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74
16
23
9
o
7
6
5
o
2
1
Establishment of packaging and marking standards.
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE TO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
75-77
12
2
78-80
16
75-77
78-80
12
10
30
10
0
8
8
1
8
4
0
2
2
81-85
2
o
7
81-85
4
1
3
LATER,
3
o
LATER
8
3
NEVER
0
0
NEVER
1
o
dEQII.l.d:l2_Q4f4~1.~1.!1.:~
High capacity two-way communication channels.
NECESSRI ASSET
USEFUL SOlfE USE NO NEED >10x10xGROUP TOTALS
33
18
1
1
2
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
EXPERT TOTALS
9
3
o
o
1
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
B•
Inexpensi ve television like terminal with two-way communication
NECESSRY ASSET USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10xGROUP TOTALS
51
3
0
0
1
0
CONSENSUS
1--1-1
EXPERT TOTALS
12
1
0
0
0
0
CONSENSUS
1--1-/
C.
Massive communication interface 100,000 lines.
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
D.
81-85
8
Fifty percent increase in working oouples with resultant limited shopping time.
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74
A.
13
5
dQ'lLlBdXl.lia_4~~_g'X4d12l.liQ_~4'IQg~
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
D.
32
4
1-1-1
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74
C.
22
3
Availability of CATV in 1% of the homes.
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
B.
16
l.'llLlM:rl.U,ll.QrL124X:
75-77
1970-71 72-74
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
NO
4
LITTLE
SIGNIF.
11
4
ASSET
35
1--1-1
6
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x5
1
7
1
1----------1-1
NECESSRY
49
ASSET
0
0
10
1-- '-I
O.K.
44
1-1-1
10
1-1-1
10x30
O.K.
11
10xT
0
0
10XT
0
2
7
2
0
100XT 1000XT >1000xT
0
0
0
0
0
0
100xT 1000xT >1000xT
0
0
0
0
0
0
1-1-1
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x-
II
1
0
0
1
1
0
0
1--1-1
0
$5-25 per month.
I -1- I
3
Positive user/terminal identification.
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
F:XPERT TOTALS
':0 NSENSUS
10x1
100XT 1000xT >1000xT
O.K.
III.95
10x-
O.K.
10XT
100xT 1000x+ >1000x+
T'
I
""--./
dff~l'drlQ~_~~~falfrlQ~
Interactive News and Entertainment -- The availability in 1 percent of homes of media service that allows
the subscriber to choose at his home terminal from a wide variety of offerings. His selection is individually
transmitted to him. If he desires, he may ~equest more in-depth coverage of particular items of interest.
I~~dfX_4~~_ldLQg
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
lYILL
PROFITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
1'10T BE
VERY MODERT MARGINAL
VERY UODERT ~!ARGINAL .TMPLEMENTETJ
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MAJOR
GROUP TOTALS
14
EXPERT TOTALS
4
SIGN.TF.
28
LITTLE
6
8
1
10
75-77
1
1970-71 72-74
IJROUP TOTAl,S
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONS8NSUS
o
1
o
0
NO
28
14
5
78-BO
5
o
2
24
7
18
7
19
7
22
8
12
1
37
12
11E~~U~E~4ZIQli_~4rE
81-B5
41
LATER
NEVER
17
2
f-f--------f
17
5
1
1- I - I
A.
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74
CROUP TOTALS
EXPEtlr TOTALS
R.
A.
28
12
0
5
8
9
5
0
2
75-77
14
78-80
20
7
ABSOLUTE PO[;SIBI.E NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74
12
27
8
0
8
6
a
3
3
0
75-77
8
,~
81-95
7
78-80
18
7
LATER
NEVER
LATER
NEVER
o
o
1
8
FCC authorization for new switched communication channels.
CROUr TOTALS
r.XPERT TOTALS
(
14
81-85
3
o
o
1
0
0
0
0
a~~~laEll_kdf4~I~IrIE~
Inexpensive television like terminal with two-way communication $5-25 eer month.
N8CES[;flY ASSET US 8F UL SOMF. USE NO
GROUP TOTALS
50
6
0
1
CONSENSUS
1- - I-I
EXP8RT TOTAL:'
20
0
2
0
ro 11:J ENS US
1- - I-I
8. ··tassive communication interface.
NP.CES,':,'? Y
r;J?OUT' TOTAlS
rrJNEElISU,':
EXP8.'?T TO'l'AL[;
I - -I - I
CO NS PlI,r; U:J
1--1-1
53
18
AS::ET
2
2
NEED >10"2
0
1
0
0
0
O.K.
49
f -1-1
16
10"~
100"~
1000x~
>1000"~
1
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
1-1-1
USE!",,'l, SOlAP USE NO lJp.En >10"0
0
1
0
10,,1
10x-
'l.X.
10"~
100"~
1000><~
>10(10)<+
O.K.
10,,~
100"~
1000x~
>1000x+
0
, . lIiqh capacity two-way communication channels.
,AI F:r: F:[:BR
r:!WUr TOTALS
CONS1W.W:J
EXPFI?7 TOTALS
CONSENSUS
"
Y
35'
At:; ET
18
1--1---------1
11
'lSEPUL :;f1U8 USE NO
NEED >lOx-
114
o
11
o
1------1-----1
Itiqh reliabili ty - no !I'IOre than 1 unscheduled interruption per month not to exceed 15 minutes •
•
NECESS:?Y
CHOUP TOTALS
':01'1:; r l/[J U:;
PXpr:.· ~ TOTALS
"'ON. ',I/S11:;
6
A:;DET
30
",SEPUL (JOffE USE NO NEE,') >10x16
2
4
3
10x9
1--1---------1
14
6
1--1---------1
0
0
3
f1.X.
'10
I- I- I
1 !,
1-1-1
c
III. 96
10"~
100x~
1000)C~
>1000x~
0
0
0
C
0
0
0
0
4EELIQA!XQI_Q!eaRlfXXQ!
Multiple Use HOllier Te:t;1llinal --The installation of a hqrIie terminal in 1 percent of the!:chomes to accomplish som
combination Of applIcations, assuminqthat most familie's would find the purchase of a home terminal to be
uneconomical unless ~ey eoillduse it for a relatively wide assortment of applications.
XMf~aX~41~_14LU!
.
R.1!:ASONS FOR IMPLEMF.N'T'ATION
WILL
PROE'ITABLJl: TO IMPLTl:MENTOR
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
"OT BF:
VERY MODERT MARGINAL
V7!:RY
MODER'! MA'Rr:nlAL nrT>L1?/"!?N'I'1?D
IMPACT ON SOCIE'!"!
MAJOR
15
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
6
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
A.
25
8
19
~
1_
7
1
B
75-77
1910-71 72-74
o
0
o
NO
LITPLE
SIGNIE'.
78-80
10
o
o
0
6
.
27
1_
20
21
14
12
7
5
B
7
4
2
IM~!M~!XAXIQ!_Q~l!
81-85 LATER NEVER
37
1- 1-I
1_
13
2
2
1
1--------1-1
4Qa!L~R4Xlla_4IQ_R!X4aQII~_fA'XQHe
CATV in 1 percent of the homes.
ABSOLUTE POSSIRLE NO EPFF.CT 1970-71 12-14
GROUP TOTALS
F:XPERT TOTALS
B.
31
11
6
5
13
5
0
8
3
0
75-77
11
2
78-80
81-85
11
6
LATER
NF.V!?R
1
1
5
2
1
1
FCC allowing the establishment of new two-way switched networks.
ABSOLUTR POSSIBLE NO F:PFECT 1970-71 72-7 1f
GROUP TOTALS
EXPF:RT TOTALS
75-77
10
31
8
0
11
8
6
11
2
0
3
3
78-80
14
6
81-95
4
1
LATF:R
NP.l'P.P
0
0
1
1
B!QUlf5Q_Q4f4~XLl!l!e
A.
High capacity two-way communications channels switchable to allow access to many applications.
NECRSSRY
GROUP TnTALS
CONS1?NSUS
EXPRRT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
B.
37
ASSr.T
12
USP-FUL .':OME liSE NO NEF:D >10)(-
5
0
1
~
0
0
10)(-
0.](.
10)(+
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
1--1---------1
12
7
1--1---------1
Terminal with display, full keyboard and light pen capable of providing video and audio displays
and of accepting inputs from sensor devices. Purchase $500 to $1,500
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSP.NSUS
EXPERT TO'TALS
CONSENSUS
38
ASSET
1
0
2
2
6
0
0
1
1
1--1---------1
13
US EPI1L SOME USP. NO NEED >10x-
12
1--1---------1
10x8
3
37
10x+
1
1_
0
O.K.
1-1-1
1- 1-I
III.97
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
0
0
0
0
0
0
(
Electronic Deliver
The availability of the electronic delivery of a wide variety of hard
copy terns vl.a t e ome term ha to 5 percent of the homes. Item~ could be viewed, and hard copy selected
or rejected. Items might include newspapers I periodicals, mail, etc.
IMf4al_4!u_l4~~~
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
WILL
PROFITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
NOT BE
VERY MODERT MARGINAL
VERY UODERT MARGINAL IMPLEMENTED
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MAflOR
GROUP TOTALS
8
EXPERT TOTALS
3
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
A.
SIGNIF.
1970-71 72-74
o
0
o
26
NO
2
4
1
LITTLE
23
6
0
75-77
6
27
19
13
24
29266
78 - 80
5
o
o
1
16
1
18
2
I.MfLgMr~X411Q~_l2.dXr
81- 8.5 LATER aEVER
24
28
4
,-,--------1
8
6
,-,--------,
0
.
d
di sp1 ay cap ab l.. 1 l.ty
.
(
1 d be Vl.. d eo cassette.
Wl.. th IirQllI.~rl2.~d~d~nl.Ur§;
Do~n naru copy anClvl. eo
cou
Low cost ( $ 5-40 / month ) terml.nal
NECESSRY ASSET
43
GROUP TOTALS
5
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
13
0
CONSENSUS
B. Mass storage of 100 billion
1--1-1
1--' -I
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED :>10x-
2
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
/--1---------,
1--1---------1
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
37
ASSET
10
1--1---------1
12
0
/--1- I
0
bytes.
NECESSRY ASSET USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED :>10xGROUP TOTALS
31
5
12
1
0
0
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
9
2
1
0
0
1
CONSENSUS
High capacity two-way communication c:hannels.
C.
f
10x1
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x-
4
0
1
1
0
1
III.98
10x4
1
O.X.
39
I- I- I
8
1-' -I
O.X.
31
1-1- ,
6
10x+
1
0
10x+
8
3
1-'--------1
10x-
O.X.
10x+
100x,," 1000x,," :>1000x+
0
0
0
0
0
0
100x+ 1000x,," >1000x+
0
0
0
0
0
0
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
INFORMATION SYSTEMS
Information systems can be divided into three levels of increasing
complexity -- operational, functional, and management. Operational
systems maintain all the information relating to the status and
c~ntrol of an operation such as inventory, personnel, etc.
Functional systems combine operational areas to provide integrated
support to a complete function such as manufacturing, finance, etc.
Management information systems integrate functional areas to provide support for higher management activities.
While each level can be thought of as being made up of an integration of the lower level systems, it is important to recognize that
each is greater than the sum of its parts in that each must provide new information to support the roles of management that didn't
exist at lower levels. These nevi roles are primarily associated
with increased emphasis on longer range planning as you move up
through management levels. Thus the operational manager is primarily concerned with planning the immediate operations, functional
management is a tactical planner, while general managers and above
are primarily strategic planners. At the operational level dayto-day status is needed to determine trends while at the general
level external environmental information is required to make strategic plans.
(
We are now in the process of installing a great number of operational information systems, a fair number of functional systems,
and a very few primitive management information systems. In
the future we will continue to install new operational and
functional systems and management information systems will be
in a significant number of companies.
Many of the operational systems will be composed of geographically
dispersed elements intercommunicating through high speed data
links. A nationwide police information system is an example-already in the process of being implemented it will be reasonably
completed in ten years providing files on unsolved crimes, stolen
property, known and wanted criminals, fingerprints modus operandi,
etc. It may also by this time and certainly by 1985 incorporate
automatic fingerprint analysis. In general this kind of interconnection is typical of the trend in state and local governments
as they move to integrated functional systems with overtones of
management systems. There is no need for multiple files of taxpayers or taxable property, etc. when single logical files will do.
The study illustrates how local health information systems installed in 20 percent of the metropolitan areas by 1980 can be
expanded into statewide health information systems by 1985.
By 1985 functional systems such as Automated Plant Information
systems in twenty percent of the Fortune 500 Companies will
automate the complete internal information requirements so that
the plant can dynamically respond to changing information.
III.99
The true management information system, as evidenced by installation in 20 percent of the Fortune 500 Companies, may come
into their own as early as 1980 but certainly no later than
1985. These systems will include internal operational and
historic status as well as external environment statistics
and forecasts. The planning process will be assisted by models
of the enterprise in its environment and result in an automated
plan which the system can translate into operational orders.
The system "will measure the results against the plan and report
descrepancies to management for their action.
/
III.lOO
.......
~
~
TNFOR/.1ATJON SYSTEMS
APPLICATION TITLE
NATION-WIDE POLICE INFORMATION
SYST?U
1'370-71 72-74
10075SO250P. C.
7B-nO
75-77
I
0.0
31.3
NEVF.R
65.6
3.1
0.0
P.C.
1.7
1.7
7550250H
.
H
H
MANAGE!1ENT INFORMATION SYSTEMS
~
0
~
LEGISf,ATIVE SYSTEMS
0.0
4.8
0.0
1.9
3.7
-0.15
2.80
2.16
2.83
0.48
65.0
26.7
1.7
1.62
3.57
2.14
-0.19
2.23
3.62
2.32
-0.18
2.02
2.13
2.67
0.33
3.30
2.10
3.26
-0.78
2.39
2.39
2.58
0.34
2.84
1. 82
2.59
1. 03
3.3
1-1--------1
57.4
35.2
3.7
0.0
0.0
38.7
54.8
1-1--------1
64.8
24.1
0.0
3.1
61.5
5.6
26.2
~0.0
1.6
0.0
0.0
I1-1--------1
I
. 1--------1-1
0.0
1.8
10075SO250-
P.C.
3.67
1-1--------1
0.0
1007550250-
P.C.
STATE HEALTH INFORMATION SYSTEMS
3.7
10075SO250-
P.C.
AUTOMATED FINGERPRINT ANALYSIS
0.0
1007550250-
P.C.
HEALTH INFORMATION SYSTEMS
0.0
1007550250-
P.C.
2.43
1-1--------1
0.0
AUTOUATED PLANT INFORMATION SYSTEMS100-
P.C.
3.44
0.0
CONSOLIDATED PUBLIC WELFARE S1.')1'?1181007550250-
WILL
IMPACT PROFITABLE USEFUL
NOT BE
TO
'1'0
ON
SOCIETY IMPLEMENTOR PUBLIC IMPLEMENTED
,.
( 1--------1-1
0.0
LAT?"?
81-85
41. 8
40.0
4.6
4.6
I
14.5
1.8
I
1 1---_---- 1- 1
0.0
1.6
1.6
22.2
60.3
4.8
9.5
4Bf~'4:rQI_a!~,alfflQI
Automated FingefPrint ~1.S -- tthe existenoe Of,' a system that oan,with reasonable pro,bability, identify ~
an arbitrary pnnt frOm a "ster file without supportiiU] data. This is in cOntrast to current systems,
'( \
both manual and autotnated .. "'~r.e the probability of lC)Oatln';J a matohls virtually zerOubless one has a
"J
small set of suspeots;
--
LMf4':L4111_14M!!
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
WILL
PROFITABLE rOIMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
NOT BE
VERY MO~ERr MARGINAL
VERY MODERTMARGINAL IMPLEMENTED
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MA.rOR
GROUP TOTALS 10
EXPERT TOTALS 2
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
SIGNIF.
23
75-77
1
78-80
23
13
28
11
331
7
o
L~~iIX4Ila~_Il'XI
81-85
22
LA'l'ER
1--------1-1
o
0
10
27
17
330
2
o
2
1970-71 72-74
o
0
o
NO
LITTLE
25
3
2
2
NEVER
8
1
2
0
I-----~--I--------I
dQQI'IB4tllQ-4I~Blr,aal!a_l4QXQa~
A. Development of some other physical identifioation means to replace identifioation for other than latent
fingerprints.
NEVER
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74 75-77 78-80 81-85
7
9
2
GROUP TOTALS
12
18
10
0
1
3
o
o
o
EXPERT TOTALS
2
2
0
0
0
o
A. Multi-attribute pattern matohing.
NECESSRY ASSET USEPUL SOME USE NO NEED >10xGROUP TOTALS
45
0
1
1
0
CONSENSUS
1--1-1
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
B. Mass data storage of 10 billion bytes.
10x-
O.K.
10x+
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
"
"
NECESSRY ASSET USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x10x10x+ 100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
O.K.
, 35
GROUP TOTALS
,0
0
37
4
0
a
11
Z
0
1
2
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
1- I-I
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
C. Ten-fold increase in image processing technology; scanning, digital conversion, storage and display.
NECESSRY ASSET USEPUL SOME USE NO NEED >10xGROUP TOTALS
37
7
2
1
1
0
CONSENSUS
1--1-1
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
D. Fingerprint soanning device.
10X0
NECESSRY ASSET USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10xGROUP TOTALS
42
2
0
3
0
CONSENSUS
1--1-1
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
E. Graphical storage and retrieval - one billion pages.
10x-
O.K.
10x+
100x+ 1000><+ >11)00x+
10x9
O.K.
10x+
1
100x+ 1000><+ >1000x+
0
0
0
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
NECESSRY
12
ASSET
31
1---1-1
USEFUL SOME USB NO NEED >10x3
0
2
1
O.K.
35
7
1- I-I
28
I"~--~---I-I
III.102
10x+
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
0
0
0
)
4f~r.l.QI_~~~'BlfflQ!
(
Automated Plant Information Systems -- The implementation in 20 percent of the Fortune 500 Companies of
systems to provide compl.teautomation of the information requirements of a manufacturing plant. The
~nformation is derived from production scheduling systems, raw material analysis, etc.
Production centers
are under adaptive oomputer control and respond dynamically to changin.g information.
IMPAC~
MAJOR
GROUP ~OTALS
3
EXPERT TOTALS 2
SIGNIF.
RBASON$ FOR IMPLEMENTArION
WILL
NOT BE
PROFITABLE 10 IMPLEMEN~OR
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
VERY MODER~ MARGINAL
VERY MODERT MARGINAL IMPLEMENTED
NO
LI~TLE
39
21
16
8
o
0
o
0
II
25
32
II
5
29
23
4
1
16
15
0
II
15
9
1
78-80
31
75-77
1970-71 72-74
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
1.fl.f4'r._4li~_!4.liJI.r.
ON SOCIETY
2
lfl.~fl.r.IX4XlQ4-Q4ll
81-85
19
LATBR
NEVER
2
0
1
0
1-1--------1
12
2
11
1-1--------1
4k'I~r.B4r.lla_41~_Hir.4B~1I~Z4'r.aB~
A. Major shift in machine tool technology or a shift to forming.
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
EFFEC~
25
12
II
3
6
2
1970-71 72-711
0
0
0
0
75-77
10
6
78-80
14
5
81-85
LATER
NEVER
1
1
3
2
0
0
ar.QQlBr.~_'4f4ll~lr.1.r.[
A. Automated generation of information systems.
(
NECESSRY ASSET USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >101<9
II
1
GROUP TOTALS
33
2
CONSENSUS
1--1-1
EXPERT TOTALS
5
111
2
1
1
CONSENSUS
1--1 -I .
B. Massive communication interface of 10,000 lines.
101<-
O.K.
101<+
1001<+ 10001<+ >10001<'t
NECESSRY ASSET USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >101<4
GROUP TOTALS
27
4
2
11
3
CONSENSUS
1--1-1
EXPERT TOTALS
6
12
2
2
2
0
CONSENSUS
1----------1-1
C. Advanced data base man~gement.
10x11
O.K.
101<'t
1
1001<+ 10001<+ >10001<'t
0
0
0
NECESSRY ASSET USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10lCGROUP TOTALS
43
0
2
3
1
CONSENSUS
1--1-1
EXPERT TOTALS
21
0
0
1
1
CONSENSUS
1--1-1
-D. Mass storage of 100 billion bytes.
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
ASSET
15
27
9
10
1----------·1-1
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x6
0
0
1
4
0
0
1
1----------1-1
27
1--------1-1
6
12
0
0
0
10x-
O.K.
10K+
100K+ 1000x't >1000x't
10x14
O.K.
10x+
1
1001<'t 10001<+ >1000x't
0
0
0
28
1--------1-1
7
13
1--------1-1
III.103
0
1--------1-1
0
0
0
0
Consolidated Public Wel£!!! Syste1\'iS ..- Theim,plementaUonof aystems to manage all aspects of public
welfare In ten stat~. ·6·syst.em mainta~uils an integt'ated datoft base of welfare, unemployment and workman's
compensation recipientth
C~
l.M.~t.QX_&lf!2'-E&~Y.l
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MMOR
GROUP TOTALS
18
EXPERT TOTALS
1
SIGNIF.·
LITTLE
38
23
10
6
1970-71 72-74
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
o
1
o
0
NO
o
R~ASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
WILL
PROFITABhE 1io tMPLEMENTOR·
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
NOT BE
VERl MODERT MARGINAL
VBR! HODERT MARGINAL IMPLEMENTET>
o
78.-80
39
75-77
1
14
27
24
25
30
14
13
5
7
8
1
9
6
2
I.U.f&EMEl!fM!IQl!_~l~
81-85 . Li'iER . /fEVER
16
1
2
1
0
·'-1--------1
16
1
3
1-1-1
dQQ~fE~4XI.l!Q_4l!Q_gE!4g!2I.l!Q_~t.QXQ~~
A. Consolidation of welfare systems under a federal agency.
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFPECT1970-71 72-74
31
18
4
1
8
15
5
0
0
6
75-77
8
1
18-80
13
81-85
7
11
2
LATER
7
3
NEVER
4
2
A. Mass data storage, 100 billion bytes.
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
30
ASSET
17
1--1---------1
6
B
1----------1-1
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x3
0
4
1
1
0
1
1
B. AutoI!\ated generation of information systems.
NECESSRI
GROUP TOTAU:
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONS ENS liS
4
o
ASSET
30
USE?UL SOIfE USE NO NEED >10x-
13
1--1---------1
10
5
1--/---------1
3
2
o
2
10x13
O.K.
30
1--------1-1
5
7
1--------1-1
10xt
0
0
100xt 1000xt >1000xt
0
0
0
0
0
0
10x-
O.K.
10xt
100xt 1000xt >1000xt
10x13
O.K.
10xt
3
100xt 1000xt >1000xt
0
0
0
C. Search engine 100 times today's capabilities.
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
12
11
ASSET
25
USEPUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x-
7
1--1---------1
7
2
1---1---------1
'+
3
3
1
2
1
IU.I04
28
1--------1-1
9
2
1-1-1
1
0
0
0
("
Health Information SY$tems -~ The implementation of health information systems by 20 percent of the
metropolitan areas. The system would provide for accumulation of health data for all individuals
from hospital visits, sohool and visiting nurses, physicians and dentists. It provides the individual
with a continuing health record, which is available to assist in diagnosing and treatment. The system
can be used in epidemic detection and control and for the evaluation of the effectivenes~ of drugs and
treatments.
lU~dQX_d~Q_Idk~:
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
rVILL
PROFITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
NOT BE
VERI MODER '1' HAR GINA L
VERY MODER'! MARGINAL IMPLEMEN'!ED
IMPAOT ON SOCIETY
UAJOR
GROUP TOTALS
28
EXPERT TOTALS
5
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
A.
SIGNIF.
LITTLE
39
5
1970-71 72-74
o
0
o
NO
10
2
1
0
75-77
2
78-80
40
31
17
~1
3
3
7
17
3
3
9
4
0
0
23
29
4
0
5
"
8
1)
0
1
75-77
22
28
7
23
4
0
5
5
0
0
1
78-80
8
2
7
Federal subsidy.
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74
75-77
22
5
78-80
11
81-85
5
o
81-85
LATER
6
2
NEVER
2
LATER
NEVER
o
o
5
6
o
4
o
2
Mass storage of 100 billion bytes.
NECESSRY
CROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
B.
5
4~Q:k:~4Xl~Q_~ll2_~:X4~al~a_l4~XQ~g
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
(
21
1-1--------1
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74
A.
5
0
passage of a National Health Insurance Act similar to Great Britain.
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
B.
18
3
lU~~:UE~X4XlQ~Q4Xr
81-85 LATER NEVER
1-1--------1
o
0
12
3
36
ASSET
15
I - - I - - - - - - - - '- I
9
1- -1-1
2
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10"2
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
NECESSRY
47
1--1-1
10
1--1-1
7
2
O.K.
30
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10"-
1
0
1
0
0
0
10" ...
8
I-I -I
2
5
0
100" ... 1000" ... >1000" ...
a
0
0
0
0
0
10"-
O.K.
10" ...
lOa" ... 1000" ... >1000"T
10"-
O.K.
10" ...
100" ... 1000" ... >1000" ...
control.
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
ASSET
8
1--------1-1
Advanced data base management system.
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
C.
Network
10,,-
36
ASSET
14
1--1---------1
9
1--1--1
3
USEFUL SOME USP. NO NEED > 10"-
4
1
1
0
0
0
111.105
4l~~l£4XlQM_~~aal~zrQ~
LttDUlativ, Systems -- Theav¥lability of legislative. SllPPQrt systems for Congress and 20 percent of
the state legislatures. serVices prdvided would inclwun
Tracking of progress of bills through legislative process.
/'"
.Tracking the usage qf progrpsunder existinglegisla,1;:ion.
(
Financial analysis of proposed. bills .~.J
Tracking of services to constituencies.
.
IMPAC!f ON SCCIETY
MAJOR
GROUP TOTALS
5
'EXPERT TOTALS
1
LITTLE
SIGNtF.
20
24
5
1+
NO
lMr4£X_d!~_r4u~~
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
WILL
PROFITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
NOT BE
VEla MODrR1.' MARGINAL
VERY MODER1.' MARGINAL IMPLEMENTED
622
2
19
0
i
~
o
15
18
15
451
6
1
,'.
1970-71 72-14
GROUP 1.'OTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPER1.' 1.'01.'ALS
CONSENSUS
o
1
o
1
lM~~gIXdXlQI~aAXg
78-80 81-85 LA!fERlIEVER
75-77
2
35
o
A. Mass storage of 100 billion bytes.
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
12
ASSE!!
30
,----------'-1
2
8
1--'-'
3
0
'-1--------1
930
1-1-1
13
0
B~~~IHI~_ad~4~l~lXlg~
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x-
2
2
0
1
0
0
0
0
10x12
O.K.
28
,--------1-1
2
5
1--------1-1
10x+
1
0
100)(+ 1000)(+ >1000)(+
0
0
0
0
0
0
,/
III.I06
'"
(
Management Information Systems -- The existence of management information systems in 20 percent of the
Fortune SOOcampanies. The system would include assistance in the planainq area by provision of historical
and environmental data and the availability of simulations and models. The plan itself would be automated in its preparation and retained in processable form. Day-to-day operational results from integrated
operational systems wlll be monitored against the plan and deviations reported to management. Management
will, in turn, use the system to make specific inquiries. to test their solutions by simulation, and to
implement the decision.
llf4aX-4IQ_14'al
WILL
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
R~ASONS 'OR IMPLEMENTATION
fl/OT BP
PROFI'lABLE TO IMPLEM'fI!N'fOR
USEFUL 'f0 PUBLIC
VERY MODE'RT MA.RGINAL
V1!:R1 MODER'! MARGINAL IMPLI?MFN'I'ED
NO
MAdOR SIGNIF. LITTLE
4
30
27
4
12
23
22
2
31
18
GROUP TOTALS 12
4
24
21
3
10
16
19
2
25
15
EXPERT TOTALS 8
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPKRT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
75-77
1970-71 72-74
o
0
o
3
0
78-80
34
laf'illlf4X4Ql-R4Xi
81-85
24
LATHE
1-1--------1
23
16
1-1--------1
3
NEVER
1
0
1
0
B~2QlBlQ_'4f4~l'lXll~
A. Mass data storage of 100 billion bytes.
10lCO.K.
NECESSRY ASSET U.'jEFUL SOME liSE NO NEED >10"11
29
2
0
?
4
21
27
CROUP TOTALS
1--------1-1
CONSENSUS
1------1-----1
7
17
2
0
1
14
17
EXPERT TOTALS
1--------1-1
CONSENS"S
1----------1-1
B • 'fen-fold improvenent in simulation techniques and available software.
"
(
6
10lC+
o
o
o
100"+ 1000x+ >1000x+
000
NECF:SSRY ASSF:T USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x0
0
1
3
37
15
GROUP rOTALS
CONSP.NSlJS
1--1---------1
0
0
3
10
1
23
P.XPP.RT TOTALS
CONSENS"S
1--1---------1
C. Advanced data base management system.
10)1-
USEFUL SOME USE NO NP-ED >10x-
10"-
O.K.
10x~
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
10x30
O.K.
10"+
1
100"+ 10nox+ >1000x+
f'I
1
1
NF:CF:SSRY
CROUP 'rOTALS
CONSENSUS
P.XPP.RT TOTALS
CONSF:NE Uf'l
D.
ASSr.T
48
5
100
:;0
1
1--1-1
111
Q..n~h.:!!l5!.r..I!..~_t_i:Et~ ..increase
NF:CE,<;SRY
7
ASS8'1'
41
US EPUL SOME
29
fj.<;p,
NO NF:ED >10"-
3
?
2
2
1
2
1--1-1
"
39
4
I-I -I
25
1
1-1-1
o
o
o
in search enqine capability.
NECF::;SRY AStlET US I?FTJ[, SOMI': lI.<;E NO NEED >10.1
1
29
GROUP TOTAl,S
21
1
CONSP.NSUS
1--1---------1
1
1
18
15
1
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSF:NS1)S
1------1-----1
p. Automatic generation of information systems.
CROUP TOTALS
CONSF:NSIIS
P.XPF:RT TOTAL[;
CONSENSUS
2
o
o
1--1 -I
lIECFSSRY ABBE'! USTt;PUL SOM!! USF: NO Nf.ED >10xB
2
1
1
15
27
CROUP "'OTALS
CONSENS U,7
1----------1-1
, 9
19
1
2
1
P.XPF:R':' TOTA!,:;
CONS 1ms I)S
1-- -1-1
,c. Advanced interactive lanquage.
C:
O.K.
1000x+ >1000x~
000
100"~
1--1-1
III.107
15
1-1--------1
1
1
0
18
11
10"-
O.K.
10x+
100"+, 11'1'()x+
10"-
O.K.
10"+
100"+ 1000><+ >1000x+
0
1-1--------1
>10nox~
·..
4~~~La~XLQ~_Q~eaHL~XLQ~
Nationwide police Information System -- The availability of a nationwide information system to provide
information on unsQlved crimes I .stolen proper~y,. wanted criminals, fing~rpr=!-nt filet;>, modus operandi .
files, etC. The system would interface to eX1st1nq state and local po11ce 1nformat10n systems to prov1de
and receive information.
(--".
~./
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MAtlOR
GROUP TOTALS
30
EXPERT TOTALS
4
41
o
0
o
0
15
35
19
43
27
1 5 3 8 2
1
o
o
6
75-77
20
1970-71 72-74
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
NO
LITTLE
9
SIGNIF.
rM~4aX_d~~_r4~Q~
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
WILL
PROFITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
NOT BE
VERY MODEST
MARGINAL
VERY MODERT MARGINAL IMPLEMENTED
78-00
42
1--------1-1
3
8
1--------1-1
A.
14
3
2
0
0
0
0
0
7
1
0
14
3
75-77
28
78-80
81-85
o
3
o
3.
LATER
o
o
o
NEVER
2
1
Mass storage of one trillion bytes.
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
B.
7
0
36
4
o
Lll~#EM~~l4XLQ~_Q~X~
81-85 LATER NEVER
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
5
0
36
ASSET
13
1--1---------1
4
4
1----------1-1
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10><-
4
2
0
1
o
o
0
10><15
O.K.
30
1--------1-1
10><+
1
100><+ 1000><+ >1000,,+
0
d
0
Advanced data base management system.
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10,,-
10><-
O.K.
10><-
O.K.
10><+
100><+ 1000><+ >1000,,+
NECESSRY
ASSET
USEFUL SO!1E USE NO NEED >10>< GROUP TOTALS
17
27
7
1
1
1
CONSENSUS
I)
EXPERT TOTALS
0
6
2
0
0
CONSENSUS
Image storage and display system one billion pages.
E.
10><11
O.K.
10><+
1
100,,+ 1000><+ >1000><+
1
0
0
USEFUL SOlfE USE NO NEED >10,,-
10><-
NECESSRY ASSET
GROUP TOTALS
38
12
COl/SENSUS
1--1---------1
EXPERT TOTALS
5
4
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
C. Network control.
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
33
ASSET
16
1--1---------1
5
4
1--1---------1
2
1
0
o
o
o
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10><-
3
0
1
o
o
o
100><+ 1000><+ >1000><+
n. search engine 100 times greater than today.
1----------1-1
1- -1--1
'JROUP TOTALS
':ONSENSUS
r::XPERT TOTALS
-:0 NSENS US
~
.
NECESSRY
7
0
Fingerprint scanner •
NECESSRY
~ROUP
TOTALS
:ONSENSUS
:XPERT TOTALS
'ONSENSUS
11
1
ASSET
34
I- -I -I
6
I--1--1
ASSET
29
1--1-1
6
1--1-1
0
11
2
0
3
\)
2
0
0
0
0
35
1- I-I
6
1-1-1
O.X.
36
1--1-1
6
I-I -I
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10><-
11
1
1
1
0
1
III-lOa
10>(-
O.K.
0
10><+
0
0
10><+
0
0
0
100><+ 1000><+ >,1000"'1"
0
0
0
0
0
0
100><+ 1000><+ >1000><+
(-~,
State Health Information Systems -- The implementation of health information by ten states. The system
provides the same services as above either directly or by interface to existing local systems.
(
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MAJOR
GROUP TOTALS
19
EXPERT TOTALS
3
SIGNIF.
15
6
1
1970-71 72-74
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
A.
NO
LITTLE
38
o
1
o
0
INfAQX_4~Q_I£LQE
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
FILL
PROFITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
NOT BE
VERY
MODERT ft1ARGINAL
VERY MODERT MARGINAL IMPLEMENTED
8
2
o
o
75-77
78-80
14
1
17
25
24
8
27
6
2
4
3
2
2
IllfLENi~XAXIQ~_aAXg
81-85 LATER NEVER
38
1--------1-1
3
7
1--------1-1
1
29
3
6
0
0
Federal subsidy.
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
A.
(
24
4
5
5
0
0
0
I;
75-77
13
3
78-80
17
81-85
3
1
o
3
LATER
2
NEVER
3
o
1
Mass storage of one trillion bytes.
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
B.
22
NECESSRY
30
ASSET
16
1--1---------1
4
S
1----------1-1
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >101<2
0
3
3
0
10x11
O.K.
30
1--------1-1
0
0
0
1
4
10x+
1
0
100Xi" 1000x+ >1000xi"
1
0
0
0
0
0
1-1-1
Advanced data base management system.
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
C •.
NECESSRY
46
ASSET
4
1- -I -I
8
1--1-1
1
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x1
1
0
0
0
10x-
O.K.
10xi"
100Xi" 1000xi" >100011000x+
10x-
O.K.
10x+
100x+ 1000xi" >1000xi"
10x11
O.K.
33
10xi"
2
10011000x+
1
0
0
0
Network control.
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
D.
ASSET
16
1--1---------1
5
3
1--1---------1
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x5
0
1
1
0
0
Automated generation of information systems.
CROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
E.
NECESSRY
30
NEC'ESSRY
5
o
I
ASfJET
11
USEFUL S()UE USE NO NEED >10x-
22
7
S
152
1
1----------1-1
1--1---------1
Search engine 100 times today's capabilities.
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTAL"
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CO NfJENS US
8
1
ASSET
35
1--1-1
6
1--1-1
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10)(5
0
3
1
2
I - -I - I
0
0
0
1
4
1- I-I
III .109
1
0
0
0
INFORMATION UTILITIES
Information utilities are characterized as central on-line, realtime facilities serving many subscribers at remote locations.
The types of services provided are information storage, retrieval,
processing and computation. The beginning of such systems are
seen in today's time sharing services and commercial data processing services.
By 1975-77 one percent of the businesses and self-employed professionals who do not have their own computer systems will make use
of terminal systems to have their administrative applications
processed by Information utilities.
The concept originated in airline reservation systems of
maintaining dynamic inventories which can be queried and updated
will be expanded to other areas. Public concern over unemployment and government subsidies will bring about the installation
of Job Placement Services by 20 percent of the metropolitan areas
in 1975-1977. Initially these will serve local areas but will
ultimately be nationally interconnected to help relieve localized
pockets of unemployment. At the same time the many reservation
systems now being installed will be interconnected into universal
reservation systems that will allow a single interface for
reservation for most services and events. By 1980-85 this type
of service will have been expanded to include considerable
logical functions as well as retrieval. For example, systems
will be able to suggest vacation travel plans given gross requirements and then make the necessary arrangements and reservations to
implement approved plans. Utilization will cover 50 percent of
the travel agencies in 1980-85 time frame.
Information retrieval utilities are services providing rapid
access to information which is too voluminous and/or volatile
for users to economically maintain themselves. These types of
services will begin to be implemented in 1978-80 and reach widespread use by the 1981-85 time period. Examples include literature,
patent and law searches, freight rates, government activities,
nationwide driver and vehicle data banks, and many others.
The advent of such systems will require: data bases in the trillion
byte range, interconnection of large numbers of systems, the
capability of processing thousands of calls concurrently, and the
software to support this including the ability to automatically
generate programs and data base organization as the needs change.
c~
1II.110
INFORMATION UTILI':.'IES
1970-71 72-7Il
APPLICATION TITLE
COMMERCIAL DATA PROCESSING SERVICES1007550 250P.C.
JOB PLACEMENT SERVICES
UNIVERSAL RESERVATION SYSTE!1S
H
H
H
.
PROFESSIONAL LITERATURE SEARCH
SYSTEMS
l-'
I-'
I-'
1007550250P.C.
1007550250P.C.
LAW SEARCH
PATENT SEARCH
INFORMATION RETRIEVAL UTILITIES
0
\
11. 7
78-80
0.0
4.7
20.0
1.5
1-1--------1
64.1
3.3
NEVER
IMPACT PROFITABLE USEFUL
WILL
ON
TO
NOT BE
TO
SOCIETY IlfPLEUENTOR PUBLIC I!.fPLEMENTED
1. 95
3.52
2.94
0.05
0.0
3.10
2.43
3.76
0.11
2.38
3.23
3.63
0.11
2.02
2.27
2.33
0.18
2.00
2.62
2.80
0.29
2.63
2.77
2.96
-0.29
1.46
2.48
2.09
0.29
1.82
2.65
2.17
0.42
0.0
I
28.1
3.1
I-I--~-----II
53.0
LATER
I
1-1-1
65.0
I
0.0
81-85
42.4
0.0
1.5
0.0
0.0
1.5
10075-
so-
250P.C.
TELEPHONE DIRECTORY AND YELLOW
PAGE DATA 'BANKS
0.0
75-77
1007550250P.C.
1007550250P.C.
1007550250P.C.
1007550250P.C.
1.,.1-1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
10.3
4.6
1.5
3.0
65.5
20.7
1-1--------1
58.5
23.1
1-1--------1
66.2
0,0
3.3
1-1--------1
56.1
1.5
6.2
3.1
I
7.6
0.0
I
42.6
3.3
0.0
,,r
(
"-
0.0
I
33.3
1-1--------1
50.8
12.3
23.1
,
0.0
3.4
.J
'\
\ )
f"".,
\,
~
~
,,
!
rlTPO'?MATION UTILITIES CONT.
1970-71 72-74
APPLICATION TITLE
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES INPORlfATIOll
UTILIT:t
VACATION AND TRAVEL PLANNING
SYSTEMS
NATION-fIIDE DRIVER AND t'EHICLE
DATA BAliK
1007550250P.C.
10075SO250P.C.
0.0
0.0
75-77
1.8
DISEASE II/PORUATION SYSTEMS
.
l-'
l-'
'"
AUTOMATED PUBLIC LIBRARIES
1007550250P.C.
1007550 250P.C.
50.9
LATER
NEVER
WILL
IMPACT PI?OFITABLE USEFUL
NOT BE
ON
TO
TO
SOCIETY IMPLEMENTOR PUBLIC IMPLEMENTED
1. 85
2.11
2.31
0.44
1. 52
2.52
2.76
0.32
2.34
2.47
2.66
0.34
2.68
2.13
3.35
-0.40
2.17
1. 67
2.62
0.74
I
38.2
5.5
3.6
I
0.0
0.0
3.3
0-
H
H
H
81-85
1-1--------1
100755025P.C.
78-!l0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1----1------1
46.1
25.0
1--------1-1
27.1
I
0.0
0.0
0.0
26.0
O.10x3
0
1
3
o
o
o
o
O.K.
13
30
1
fast as today·s.
USEFUL SOME UBE NO NEED >10x-
36
7
0
1
1
10
If
0
0
0
10xt
5
1--------1-1
12
1-1-1
1--1-1
4
10x-
10x8
o
2
O.K
34
100xt 1000xt >1000xt
100
10xt
o
o
100xt 1000xt >1000xt
7
1
0
0
2
0
0
0
1-I -I
1
13
1--1-1
1-1-1
Automated system for entry of the published data, includes multifont readers, page turners and
selective scan to distinguish an article from its adjacent material and to follow continued on page
x situations.
NECESSR!
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUB
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
D.
Automated
14
4
19
10x-
O.K.
10x-
O.K.
100xt 1000xt >1000xt
10x-
O.K.
100xt 1000x+ >1000x+
10x-
O.K.
10xt
100xt 1000xt >1000xt
1--1-1
16
ASSET
34
1----------1-1
If
14
1-- I-I
0
0
0
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x400
1
o
o
network control.
10
2
ASSET
26
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x13
5
3
1--1---------1
11
6
1
1--1---------1
display and reproduction terminal
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x2
3
0
abstracting system.
NECESSR!
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
F,XPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
F.
Document
39
1-- 1- 1
NECESSR!
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
E.
Computer
ASSET
ASSET
0
~r month~
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x-
19
33
If
0
1
0
o
6
12
2
o
0
o
o
1----------1-1
1----------1-1
III. 113
10xt
45
6
12
1
1-1-1
1-1- 1
"-
100xt 1000x+ >1000xt
000
o
o
o
./
commercial Data Processing Services -- The use by 1 percent of the business and self-employed professionals
who do not have tfieirow& computer systems of commercial data processing services. These services consist
of prewritten (or tailored) applications accessed by the terminal.
I~f4at_4«~_14'U~
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
WILL
PROFITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
NOT BE
VERY MODERT MARGINAL
VJl:RY MODER'! MAP(;.TNfl L !MPLPM'P.NTED
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MAJOR
CROUP TOTALS
5
EXPERT TOTALS 3
A.
(
o
38
21
15
1970-71 72-74
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
P.XPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
NO
LITTLE
SIONIF.
20
o
7
o
5
"24
17
o
78-80
75-77
39
32
20
25
15
11
33
19
11
6
1
o
IMf'~~«t4tlQl_Q4tl
81-85
LATER
NEVJl:R
12
2
0
0
8
1
o
o
1-1-1
1-1- 1
6
2
Massive communication interface -
NECESSRY ASSET USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x29
CROUP TOTALS
6
0
2
0
13
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
EXPP.RT TOTALS
5
0
0
20
5
2
CONSF:NSUS
1--1---------1
B. Program products to support the applications.
10x3
NF:CESSRY ASSET IISP.FlIL SOME USE NO NEED >10xCROUP TOTALS
48
0
4.
0
0
CONSENSUS
1--1-1
EXPERT TOTALS
0
30
0
3
0
CONSF:NS1IS
1- - 1-I
C. Advanced data base management system.
10x-
O.K.
10x+
100x+ 1000x+ >1000><+
NECESSRY ASSE'!' USEFUL SOME
GROUP TOTALS
32
17
1
CONSENSUS
1--/---------1
')
EXPERT TOTALS
22,
1
CONSF:NSllS
/--1---------1
D. Terminal with medium speed input-output:
10>< -
O.K.
10><+
100><+ 1000><+ >1000x+
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSllS
EXPERT TOTALS
CO NS;r::NB US
32
ASSET
17
USE NO NEED >10><0
1
0
1
13
1--1---------1
39
10x+
1
100x+ 1000><+ >1000><+
0
0
0
1-1- 1
2
23
0
0
0
0
1- I-I
300 lines per minute, 300 cards per minute, $200/month.
llSEFUL SOME 118E NO NEED >10x0
0
2
0
0
0
2
0
1--1---------1
17
O.K.
10x0
a•.1( •
43
10x+
1
100x+ 1000><+ >1000x+
0
0
0
1-1-/
111.114
0
28
1- I-I
0
0
0
0
&E~~la4IlQ~_~~~a~l~I4Q~
Disease Information Systems -- The .vailability in 20 percent of the metropolitan areas .of systems to
record the diseases diagnosed by physicians in't,ilhe area. The system would be used to detect epidemics
in their early stages, and disease trends such as the rise of new diseases, or effectiveness of preventive
measures on old diseases.
.~\
\
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
WILL
PROFITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
NOT BE
VERY MODERT MARGINAL
VERI MODERT MARGINAL IMPLEMENTED
10
19
21
29
16
8
8
3 5 '
8
,
1
2
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MArTOR
GROUP TOTALS
9
EXPERT TOTALS 2
LITTLE
SIGNII'.
35
8
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
NO
1
11 .
3
1970-71 72-7Q
1
75-77
o
0
o
o
0
o
"'-./
.I.M:e4a:t.4lllL£.1liQ.f:
78-80
l.!l:eli~l1~llI&Il.Q~_12&I::
81-85
13
3'
1--------1-1
,
7
1--------1-1
LATER· NEVER
3
0
0
0
~~Q~l.«~Q_ad:e.1~l.liLIl.~~
A. Automatic generation of information systems.
NECESSR! ASSET USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10xGROUP TOTALS
5
27
1
0
6
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
6
1
0
3
EXPERT TOTALS
o
CONSENSUS
1--1-------------------------1
B. Hass storage of 100 billion bytes.
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
e
1
ASSET
26
U:JEFUL SOUE USE NO NEED >10x 8
1
2
2
1--1-1
6
1
1--1---------1
0
2
III. 115
1
10x-
O.K.
10le10
O.K.
26
1--------1-1
2
3
1----1----·1
10x+
1
0
100)(+ 1000)(+ >1000x+
0
0
0
0
0
0
4ff~l~fla!_~~'BlffLQR
Government Activities Infotmation Utility -- The availability, through profit-making organizations, of
continually updated data bankso'f '1overnment activities in legislative, executive and regulatory areas
for the federal government and 10 percent of the states. This would include such items as status of
legislation, current regulations and administrative directives, commisiton rulings, etc. Selected
access to this information would be by sUbscription service through terminals at remote locations.
LMf4'%_d!e_14~Ul
T{ILL
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
NOT BF:
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
PROFITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
VERY MODERT MARGINAL IMPLEMF:NTED
VERY MODERT MARGINAL
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MAJOR
1
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS 0
75-77
1
o
0
o
0
0
78-80
28
4
26
7
20
9
3
1
ZH~~I~Rf4tla'-~4Xl
91-85 LATER NEVER
21
3
2
1-1--------1
o
9
1
21
30
7
4
2
0
29
5
27
6
1970-71 72-71+
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
NO
LITTLE
SIGNIF.
1+
6
1
0
1--------1-1
Bl~l~_'4f4[L~lfll~
A.
f
Mass data storage of 100 billion bytes.
NECESSRY ASSET USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >lOx0
0
0
3
31
11
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
1--1-1
0
0
0
0
7
1
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
1--1-1
B. Ten-fold increase in image processing capabilities.
lOx5
NECESSRY ASSET USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10X0
2
1
3
32
6
GROUP TOTALS
CONSF:NSUS
1--1-1
0
0
0
1
6
1
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
1--1-1
C. Search engine ~O times today's capabilities.
lOx1
NECF:SSRY ASSET USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >lOx1
1
2
2
11
28
GROUP TOTALS
CONSF:NSUS
1---1-1
0
0
0
6
1
EXPERT TOTALS
1
CONSENSUS
1--1-1
D. Massive communication interface 10,000 lines.
lOx1
USEFUL SOME {fSE NO NEED >lOx-
10x12
NECESSRY
GROllP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPF:RT TOTALS
CONSENSllS
10
0
ASSET
26
8
0
0
0
7
1
0
0
0
1--1-1
1-- 1- I
III. 116
1
0
O.K.
33
1-1-1
5
0
O.K.
34
1-1-1
5
1-1-1
O.K.
33
6
10x+
0
0
0
0
0
0
o
o
o
o
10x+
28
4
1--------1-1
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
5
0
0
0
o
o
o
o
1-1-1
O.K.
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
3
10 x +
1
1--------1-1
2
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
0
0
0
1-1-1
1-1-1
0
10x+
2
0
100 x + lOOOx+ >1000xt
0
0
0
0
0
0
Information Retrieval Uta!i tifa'S -- The uSe by 1. percent of the Fortune 500 Companies and 0 .1 percent of
self-employed profession<1ils of the services provided byinforJQ.ation utilities. These utilities would
provide rapid access uo. info~ation compiled, indexed, and maintained in a central data bank primarily
by interactive inquiriesfram remote terminals but also by computer to computer inquiries. The information
would be voluminous and/or volatile so that users woutd find it uneconomical to maintain their own data
bank.
. .
IlJ.f.4'L.4N1l:...l.WB:
.
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MAJOR
GROUP TOTALS
3
EXPERT TOTALS 2
24
12
A.
o
0
o
0
10
5
5
31
15
o
78-80
31
75-77
2
1970-71 72-74
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
NO
LITTLE
SIGNIP.
REASONS POR IMPLEMENTATION
WILL
.
NOT BE
PROPITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
VERY MODERT MARGINAL
VERI MODERT MARGINAL IMPLliJMENTED
.
36
17
.
14
6
9
5
25
H
21
7
9
2
l.Ml!U~Ui.ll.r.4x.I.Q.8.~124n
81-85
LATER NEVER
26
2
0
1
0
1-1--------1
13
2
13
1-1--------1
BB:~~1.~II2_~4l!4~1.u1.r.1.B:~
Mass data storage of one trillion bytes.
O.K.
NECESSRY ASSliJT USfi:PUL SOME USE NO NEF:D >10)(0
0
2
1
GROUP TOTALS
36
13
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
0
0
1
1
14
7
EXPFJRT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
B. Automated generation of information systems.
10><2
NECESSRY ASSliJT USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10><37
3
0
2
GROUP TOTALS
10
CONSENSUS
1--1-1
5
17
0
2
EXPFJRT TOTALS
1
CONSENSUS
1- -I -I
C. Massive communication interface.
10><-
O.K.
10><+
100><+ 1000"+ >1000><+
NECESSR.Y ASSET Uf3EPUL SOME liSP. NO NliJED >10)(CROUP TOTALS
31
19
1
0
1
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
EXPERT TOTALS
o
15
7
1
1
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
D. Advanced data base management system.
10"-
O.K.
10><+
100><+ 1000"+ >1000"+
NP.CESSRY ASSP.T USP.FUL SOME USE NO NRED >10xGROUP TOTALS
39
12
1
0
0
CONSENSUS
1--1--1
EXPERT TOTALS
17
7
o
o
1
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
E. Search engine 1,000 times today's capabilities.
10x-
O.K.
10><+
100><+ 1000x+ >1000><+
10><15
O.K.
10)(+
0
100"+ 1000><+ >1000><+
0
0
0
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
F:XPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
29
ASSPT
19
1--1---------1
13
7
1--1---------1
USEFUL SOME USE NO Nl?PD >10><1
1
1
0
1
1
1
0
III. 117
39
1-1-1
1
19
1
100)(+ 1000"+ >1000><+
0
0
3
0
0
0
1-1-1
31
1--------1-1
3
10"+
3
17
1-1-1
0
0
°
0
dffLIQdXIQ~_QE2Q~lEXIQ~
30b Placement Services
The availability in 20 percent of the metropolitan areas of a data bank of
job openings. The data bank oould be searched from terminals in government unemployment centers and
employment agencies for a matoh with job applioant capabilities, experience and desires.
1~~~~X_d~Q_Xd~~K
W.TLI,
REASONS FOR .TMPLEMENTATION
NOT RE
PROF.TTABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
VERY . !10DERT MARGINAL
VERY
MOVERT
MARG.rNAL IMPLEtJENTEn
11
42
18
44
27
7
3
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MAJOR
GROUP TOTALS
17
EXPERT TOTALS
5
SIGNTF.
A.
o
o
13
2
75-77
41
1970-71 72-74
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
NO
LITTLE
52
14
o
3
o
1
1
78-aO
18
3
2
0
0
3 1•
10
0
0
0
21
5
5
3
0
0
21
7
75-77
27
6
78-80
5
1
81-85
LATER
o
o
2
1
NEVER
o
o
!l~2l!.I.rl.E!2_Q&'l:4I!.lLlXlEq,
NECESSRY
3
1
ASSET
12
USEFUL
28
1----------1-1
3
5
ROME
UflE NO NElm >101<-
5
8
9
3
3
1
1----------1---------1
10,,17
O.K.
26
1----1-----1
6
5
10,,+
0
0
1001<+ 1000"+ >1000"+
0
0
0
0
0
0
1-1--------1
Massive communication interface 10£000 lines.
NECESSRY
ASSET
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10110x-
5
1
3
2
0
1
1--1---------1
6
8
1----------1-1
10"123 .
O.K.
13
10x+
0
1-1--------1
8
3
0
100"+ 1000x+ >1000x+
0
0
0
0
0
1-1-1
0
10lC-
O.K.
10x+
100lC+ 1000x+ >1000x+
10"-
O.K.
10ic+
34
12
0
1001<+ 1000x+ >1000x+
0
0
0
1+
0
Mass storage of 100 billion bytes.
NECRSSRY
GROUP TOTALS
3
CONSENSUS
EXPE1?T TOTA!,!]
1
CONSENSUS
E.
Network control.
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
COnSENSU!]
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSU:;
14
1
ASEF.T
27
USEFUL SOME U!]E NO NEED >10x12
11
:J
7
1--1----------1
5
4
5
1----------1---------1
A:JSET
1
1
8
1-1--------1
USE;r:"UL i:OWf: USE NO NEED >101<-
25
11
4
3
10
1
1
2
1--1---------1
1-1-1
1--1---------1
III.llS
10x-
0
0
0
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
Law Search -- Data banks containing the federal, state and local statutes together with key court
decIsIons available to 20 ~rc.nt ~f the lawyers via interactive search from terminals in their
offices.
LllE4QX_~NQ_14~QE
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MAJOR
10
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
2
LITTLE
SIGNIF.
NO
22
48
18
JrEASONS FOR IMPLElfENTATION
IITLL
PROFITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
NOT BE
VERY
!fODERT MARGINAL
VERY
MODERT MARGINAL IMPLEMENTED
20
8
1
1
8
38
13
13
6
26
10
33
11
14
6
8
2
I.!:1~[&y'c;,l!.ll!XLQN_lZ~XE
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTAlS
CONSENSUS
75-77
1
1970-71 72-74
0
0
0
0
78-80
43
81-85
15
LATER
NEVER
4
2
2
2
1-1--------1
0
19
4
1-1--------1
4QQE~E~AlLNQ_l!l!.ll_Rc;,Xl!ElZLNa_EdQXQR~
i
A.
Successful implementation in one state.
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
B.
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74
15
32
9
2
7
15
2
4
1
4
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EF'FECT 1970-71 72-74
81-85
7
3
9
LATF:R
NEVER
o
o
3
1
1
1
23
22
7
0
10
9
1
0
5
3
75-77
22
78-80
12
7
81-85
LATER
5
NEVER
1
6
2
1
1
1
~EgrJ.I.EE.!2_QliEf1l!.rH.Xr!i{2
Automated or computer assisted system for capturing, analyzing, and cross-indexing the existing statutes
and decisions.
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSlI:J
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
13.
78-80
Development of a more accurate method of case reference.
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
A.
75-77
31
51
ASSET
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10><-
5
o
0
1
3
o
o
o
1--1-1
22
10><-
O.K.
10><+
100><+ 1000><+ >1000><+
1- -I -I
A search engine' capable of providing responses to complex inquiries at a rate 10,000 times greater
than today's systems.
NECESSRY
aROUP TOTALS
.10
CONSENSUS
F:XPERT TOTALS
3
CONSENSUS
C.
Mass storage of one
NECEO;:;R!
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TO'1'A[,.';
r:ONSENSUS
rye
Advanced
20
~ON8ENSUS
~XPERT Tn'J't1[,S
~ONSE}.ISlJS
31
USEFU[, SONE USE }In NEED >10><-
12
2
0
3
4
2
0
1
1--1---------1
1 /,
1--1---------1
AS/JET
8
(/3EFUL OOME [f!J'fi:
37
0
1
1
12
3
0
1
0
AS[JET
O.K.
33
10><+
1
12
1
1--------1-1
6
10>< 0
100)(+ 1000><+ >10(0)(+
0
0
0
0
0
O.K.
39
10)(+
9
0
100)(+ 1000)(+ >1000><+
0
0
0
I- I- I
0
13
4
0
0
0
I -I -I
data base management system.
USEFUL :JONE USF: !l()
nnw
>10)(-
10)(-
O.K.
10)(+
100><+ 1000)(+ >1000)(+
USEFUl, tJOMF USE Nt, rlPET) >10)(4
2
0
10><-
(l,K.
10)(+
100)(+ 1000)(+ >1000><+
17
:3
1
0
1
1
0
1--1---------1
14
llECESSRY
8
32
ASnET
19
1--1---------1
10
9
1----------1-1
3
Massive Communication Interface
NECESSRY
ROUP TOTALS
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'(PERT TO'1'A['S
JNSENSUS
IIfEET) >10)(-
4
1--1------- __ 1
Query language for use by lawyers.
!ROUP T()TALS
'ONSEI/SUS
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'ONSF:NSUS
NO
32
1----------1-1
10)(17
1--------1-1
trillion bytes.
1----------1-1
NECESSRY
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18
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20
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2
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10£000 lines.
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4
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1----------1---------1
7
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3
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0
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O.K.
42
1
I -I - I
1
17
1-1-1
III. 119
10)(+
1
100)(+ 1000)(+ >1000)(+
0
0
0
0
0
0
(
Nationwide Driver and Vehicle Data Bank -- A national data bank of driver and vehicle licensing information.
The system-would be used by states to determine eligibility for license of a new resident and to check
ownership of vehicles being newly registered in the state. The system would contain consolidated driving
records and could be sold to insurance companies for use in determining premium rates.
i.
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IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MAJOR
9
GROUP TOTALS
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26
10
o
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22
5
1970-71 72-74
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3
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29
13
10
2
16
15
5
4
25
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75-77
78-80
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1
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5
11
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(
NECESSRY ASSET USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10xGROUP TOTALS
37
11
2
.1
1
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
EXPERT TOTALS
11
3
o
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1
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
B. Ten times improvement in security features.
10x-
O.K.
NECESSRY ASSET USEPUL SOME USE NO NEED >10xGROUP TOTALS
31
11
7
0
2
0
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
KXPERT TOTALS
7
6
1
0
0
0
CONSENSUS
1------1-----1
C. Mass storage 100 billion bytes.
10x1
O.K.
N!?CESSRY ASSET USKPUL SOME USE NO NEED >10xGROUP TOTALS
35
12
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0
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1--1---------1
I~
EXPKRT TOTALS
B
?
0
0
0
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
D. Advanced data base ~nagement.
10x11
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CONSl?NSUS
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NECESSRY
34
ASSET
15
1--1---------1
9
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1--1---------1
USP-FUL SOME lISK NO N!?ED >10x1
0
1
0
0
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III. 120
39
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
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4
1- I-I
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1-1-1
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31
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0
0
0
0
0
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0
0
0
0
0
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1--------1-1
10x-
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Patent Search -- The avai1:aOility of the first data bank containing the complete files of the U. S.
Patent Office for intel'Ildt1Q search from terminal.s loea:t:edtn law firms, corporate law departments,
etc.
ll:ll!AQX_A!1lLIUY.l:
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REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
NOT BE
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MAJOR
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4
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12
1
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14
39
18
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1970-71 72-74
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64
12
2
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l.M.l!J&tiE!lXAXlQlL!2&Xc;.
81-85
22
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1-1--------1
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33
3
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1
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MZ(2Elt~l1AXI.llfl...A!!.ll_l1~Xdl1!2l.N.!Lf:AQXQl18.
A.
Change in legal penalties for infringement.
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74
GROUP TOTALS
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5
1
22
4
27
7
0
0
1
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75-77
13
2
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5
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l1Eey.ll1E!2_(2dl!d~l.~l.Xl.~~
A.
Automated or computer assisted system for capturing, analyzing and cross-indexing the existing files.
10xo.x.
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NRCESSRY ASSET USEFUL SOME USE N(l ,T-{EEn >10XGROllP TOTAL:]
59
2
0
0
0
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1--1-1
0
0
0
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14
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1- -1-1
B. A search engine capable of providing responses to complex inquiries at a rate 10,000 times g:reater
than today's systems.
NECESSRY ASSET USTSFUL SOME USF
TOTALS
13
2'3
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15
CONSF:NSUS
1--1---------1
EXPERT TOTADS
5
9
1
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0
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11
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Terminal with digital and graphical display and hard-copy output. Price approximately $200/month.
r,rwup TOTAL,']
flECPRST?Y
17
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6
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for 100 million pages.
GROUP TO.TALS
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Professional Literature Search Sistems --The utilization by 1 percent. of research scientists and
deveiopment engiiieers'of termtn.a access to data bank~ of pubUshed research and development.
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IMl!-.!'-Ldl'!.[L.XdLrl.l£
,
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
WILL
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7
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2
39
16
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11
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38
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9
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1970-71 12-71+
GROUP TOTALS
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26
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1
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d'-QEllEll.1XIN{l MiD RU4.RDIN{llJ'A,-TORS
~Operce-n~-olren-e melrr1rpolr:itan--communities.
Installation of picturephones in
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-71+
17
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
A.
21
9
12
33
16
7
12
0
1
5
0
0
75-77
26
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78-80
81-85
20
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LATER
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NEVER
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~l£Q~r«~~_Q4fd~lLrXIl£a
Voice recognition system capable of recognizing letters and numbers and simple words as spoken by 99
percent of the population.
NECESSR! ASSET USEFUL SOME USE 110 NEED >10x10xO.K.
GROUP TOTALS
24
12
16
3
3
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
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3
7
11+
1
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1--1-------:---1
B. Audio response capable of handling 1,000 voice responses simul~aneously.
10x+
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NECESSR!
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C.
Alphabetic
16
1--1---------1
16
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2
0
0
1
9
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1
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19
31
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21
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10x32
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12
12
billion bytes.
~OO
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10
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Updateable image files.
'ROUP TOTALS
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46
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NECESSR! ASSET USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10xGROUP TOTALS
13
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13
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Search engine 100 times faster than today's systems.
,ROUP TOTALS
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input terminal incorporated in the telephone.
NECESSR!
GROUP TOTALS
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D.
Data base
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Universal Reservation Systems -- The availability of s¥stems in 20 percent of the metropo~itan are~s that
provide the ability to make reservations for mostserv~ces and events. i.e.,.transpo~tat~on,.lodg~ng,
sporting events, restaurants, etc., through one terminal interface. The serv~ce prov~des.a~ ~nterface ~o
existing reservation systems or provides a reservation system for services and events des~r~ng the serv~ce.
I~4'X_d~Q_!4~Q:
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
WILL
PROFITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
NOT BE
VERY MODERT MARGINAL
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26
41
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36
5
3
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
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8
GROUP TOTALS
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1970-71 72-74
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ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74
20
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Hass storage 100 billion
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
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Advanced data base management service.
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GROUP TOTALS
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Massive communication interface 10,000 lines.
NECESSRY ASSET U:JEFUL SOUE USE NO NEED >10x ·GROUP TOTALS
15
25
12
1
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EXPERT TOTALS
5
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Unscheduled interruptions no more than once eer da:l not to
NECESSRY
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20
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28
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exceed 15 minutes.
5
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Vacation and Travel p*rningSystems -- Access from 50 percent of the travel agencie$ to systems
containing recreationa~andtravel itenerary information. The system would interactively accept
gross travel plans, provide sU9gested accommodations, activities, side trips, etc. from which the
client would make his selections~ When the final itenerary is selected, the system would provide
detailed routings, make all necessary reservations, and cio the agency accounting and filing applications.
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Availability of general travel reservations systems from which to expand to planning systems.
A.
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?
0
0
0
2
r,
O.
1. :?
en f.18
?;~ ,~},t;
D.
Network control for interconnection to universal reservation system.
[f,r:;
1---------- 1- I
,'1 ":C'::S.'U7Y
If~)
1--1-1
15
An:.,,·"!'
!~.
34
10 x +
1
10!,)x+ ll1fJ"x+ >ll1fl')x+
:')
0
0
I- I- I
1--1---------1
7
11lx-
5
118?FUf. .'iN.!?' w:;g 110 NT'!-:/) >10x-
2
?
0
1
o
1
o
o
0
f)
1- I- I
"
"
(
l(]x-
O.X.
11)x+
10x()
O.K.
33
10"+
1"
/"
~j
1- - 1- 1
r;.
Low cos.t terminals $20-$30 per month.
7R()UP
~(l'."I1T.:~
:13
15
I/''>';'1<'UT,
1
8m'r:
(f8
':
1.
.'In n.T!':p,")
0
>10><0
1--1---------1
1'1
II
1
0
0
0
n
1--1---------1
1-1--------1
10
3
10"><+ l'1n",,+ >In,)'x+
()
f1
o
.')
1- 1- I
Massive communication interface 10,000 lines.
U8 'CPrJI; /J (),~( ~ lJ,'ip, f.' 0
'(oJF::H;D >10x-
Inx-
5
1
()
1
t>
2
0
()
0
:>
1--1---------1
r;(l,.-.r:r"'.·;'I.~
!--I--------_I·
a.;:.
3G
I-I -I
1"
1- I - I
10X+
1
n
10,)><+ 10no><+
()
>1n0 'x+
f1
"
Advanced data base management system.
. -'C,":;.':""
3 r,
Af>Sf""[,
U.
I/n"'Plf T,
1."
! - -I --I
l/,r:g
1.
1
o
1--1---------1
"'XP"\l:'l r"'O:!,I![.,r:
::;OM~
'l
~!O
NTi"i'D
1
>10x-
10><-
() •.v •
(/
111.125
(~
JUDICIAL AND LEGISLATIVE
JUdicial and legislative areas of government have heretofore
not made extensive use of data processing, but the next 15 years
will find initial moves into this area. The crowded court
schedules will be addressed through systems to schedule court
appearances and handle routine appeals such as continuance without
necessity of scheduling sessions. This application will be used
by 20 percent of the courts by 1978-80.
Congress is presently considering a system to track the progress
of bills through the legislative process. By 1980 Congress and
20 percent of the state legislatures will be served by versions
of this system extended to provide information retrieval and other
tracking capabilities.
Twenty percent of the federal and state penal insitutions in 1985
will use data processing to maintain complete information files on
prisoners and parolees. The systems would maintain personality
profiles, skills, background, prison performance, parole performance,
etc., and would be used in planning and executing rehabilitation
programs.
(
111.126
JUDICIAL AND LECISLAT.IVE
1970-71 72-74
APPLICA'J'IOll TI';'LE
AUTOMATED COURT SCHEDULING
1007550250P.C.
LEGISLATIVE SYST"lfS
f-'
N
"
0.0
17.5
66.7
0.0
1.9
3.7
64.8
12.3
0.0
3.6
21. 8
1.8
NEVER
faLL
IMPACT PROFITABLE USEFUL
NOT BE
ON
TO
TO
SOCIETY IMPLEMENTOR PUBLIC IMPLEMENTED
2.70
2.22
3.14
0.33
2.02
2.13
2.67
- 0,33
2.35
2.08
2.48
0.29
65.5
1.8
,
24.1
/--------/-/
0.0
LATER
I
1-/--------/
1007550250P. C.
H
H
H
0.0
81-85
78-20
/ -/-1
1007550 250P.C.
PENAL AND PAROLE IllFORlfATION
SYSTEMS
75-77
5.6
0.0
I
7.3
1.8
4ff~lQ4XlQ!_a~~QRlfflQ!
Automated Court Scheduling -- The use by 20 percent of federal, state and municipal courts of computerized
systems to schedule courts.
lHf4QX_A«~_l~~
WILT,
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
PROFITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
NOT BE
VERY MODERT MARGINAL
VERY MODERT MARGINAL IMPLEMENTED
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MAJOR
GROUP TOTALS 15
EXPERT TOTALS ~
SIGNIF.
o
o
NO
20
5
~
1970-71
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
LITTLE
26
7
2
o
20
26
19
1~
7
363
29
7
2
~
1
lHf~lH~IX4XlQI_~4X~
72-7~
75-77
10
0
78-80
LATER
NEVER
7
1
1
2
0
0
1-1-1
o
0
81-85
38
9
1-1-1
4QQ~'lR4Xl«~_41~_BlX4Ball~_l4QXQa~
A. Legislative or judicial interpretation of "the speedy trial" to force scheduling of cases within a maximum
time.
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74 75-77 78-80 81-85 LATER NP.VF:R
GROUP TOTALS
11
28
4
0
0
6
1
13
19
2
EXPERT TOTALS
0
1
8
1
~
0
0
0
0
3
a~~Qlala_'4f4~l~lXll~
A. Availability of the application program from a service organization.
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXP!?RT TO.TALS
CONSENSUS
NECESSRY
9
ASSET
34
1--1-1
~
6
1----------1-1
USEFUT, SOME USE NO NEED >lOx4
2
1
1
o
o
o
o
O.K.
~O
-
...
III.l28
10x+
5
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
0
0
0
1-1-1
0
7
1-1-1
(
(
10x0
$200/month.
0
0
0
0
~ffLlk4XlaH_al~~~rlQH
Legislative S¥stems -- The availability ot legislative support systems for Congress and 20 percent of
the st.te legl.Slatures. Services provJ.ded would,include:
Tracking of progress of bills through legislative process.
Tracking the usage of programs under existing legislation.
Financial analysis of proposed bills.
'
Trac~ing of services to constituencies.
L«f4kl_4!a_I4'Ql
REASONS POR IMPLEMENTATION
WILL
PROPITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
USEPUL TO PUBLIC
NOT BE
VERY MODERT MARGINAL
VERY MODERT MARGINAL IMPLEMRNTED
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MAJOR
GROUP TOTALS
5
EXPERT TOTALS 1
SIONIP.
24
A.,
2
o
4
75-77
1970-71 72-74
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
NO
LITTLE
20
5
o
1
2
o
1
o
78-80
35
NECESSRY
12
ASSET
30
1----------1-1
2
8
1--1-1
22
19
15
18
15
6
2
7
0
4
5
1
1
l«fLlMlHl4lLQH_a4ll
81-85
13
LATER
NEVF.R
3
0
0
0
1-1--------1
9
3
1-1-1
Mass storage of !QQ.. billion bytes.
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSlfS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
6
H~~QLHla_k4~4~lLllll~
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10"2
2
0
1
0
0
0
0
10"12
O'.K.
28
1--------1-1
2
5
1--------1-1
III.129
10x+
1
0
100x+ 1000x+ ·>1000x+
0
0
0
0
0
0
4ff~l'4rLQR_a~~~BlfXlQ!
Penal and Parole Information Systems -- The use of information systems by 20 percent of the federal and
state penal institutions. The systems Would maintain personality profiles, skills, background, prison
performance, parole performance, etc., files on all prisoners and parolees. The system would be used to
plan rehabilitation programs and to track the sucCess or failure of such programs.
LHf4'r_4lQ_14~QK
WILL
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
NOT BP.
PROFITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
VERY MODERT MARGINAL
VERY MODERT MARGI~AL IMPLP.MENTED
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MAJOR
GROUP TOTALS
6
EXPERT TOTALS 2
LITTLE
SIGNIF.
31
25
3
3
NO
o
3
32
20
251
o
12
27
15
161
6
o
LHf~~~~RrATlQ4_a4Xl
1970-71 72-74
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
o
0
o
0
75-77
78-80
12
2
81-85
36
LATER
NEVER
~
1
0
0
1--------1-1
o
~
3
1--------1-1
4~k~'~B4XLRa_4Ra-B~X4Ball~-EA~rQB~
A. Development of significant public arousement about penal conditions and reform similar to the current
concern about ecology.
ABSOLUTr POSSIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74 75-17 78-80 81-85 LATER NEVER
GROUP TOTALS
13
24
5
3
~
10
13
4
2
2
EXPERT TOTALS
3
2
0
1
2
1
1
o
0
°
B~QQlBKa_~4f4dl'lrl~~
A. Automatic generation of information systems.
NECESSRY ASSET USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10xCROUP TOTALS
704
6
30
CONSENSUS
1--1-1
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSU[;
B. Hass storage of 100 billiq".n bytes.
(
NE'CP.SSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
P.XPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
8
0
ASSET
USEFUL SOl.fE USE NO NEED >10x-
30
7
1
1
3
2
0
0
1--1-1
1--1---------1
.III.130
2
10x-
O.K.
10x+
100x+ 1000"+ >1000"+
10"12
O.K.
10"+
3
100"+ 1000"+ >1000"+
f)
0
0
26
1--------1-1
MANUFACTURING AND PROCESS
(
The thrust of future computer applications in manufacturing
and process is toward increased automation. Labor's historic
resistance to automation may be somewhat offset by the advent
of guaranteed annual wages in 1975-1980.
Increased automation will lead ultimately to the establishment
in the 1980's of fully automated manufacturing plants in 1
percent of the major companies. These plants would be able to
operate essentially unattended, oanufacturing a wide variety of
products concurrently and capable of changing the variety
dynamically in response to forecasted demands or actual orders.
Computers will control the actual manufacturing and provide
the necessary product and manufacturing design as well as
accomplishing the administrative tasks of scheduling, purchasing,
inventory control, accounts receivable and payable, etc.
In route to the automated plant, 1 percent of the warehouses
in major companies will be automated by 1977. By 1980 systems
will be capable of producing new engineering designs based on
engineering standards and practices and previous designs given
functional requirements as input. In a similar fashion manufacturing procedures and machine control instructions will be
automatically generated from engineering designs. Special and
general purpose robots will come into widespread use. By 1985
robots will be used to test drive 5 percent of the U. S. automobile production, and 20 percent of the Fortune 500 Companies
will have robots capable of performing, sensing, and manipulating functions similar to those performed by people.
In 1980 it will be possible to simulate most new products and
test the simulation rather than actual engineering models as
is now done in aerospace. By 1985 computer controlled 100 percent
quality assurance of 20 percent of the consumer products may be
forced by consumer demand or legislative action.
(/
III.131
MANUPACTURING AND PROCESS
APPLICATION TITLE
AUTOMATED WAREHOUSES
1970-71 72-74
1007550250-
P.C.
AUTOMATED DESIGN ENGINEERING
0.0
1.7
75-77
---------
58.3
1007550250-
P.C.
78-80
35.0
81-85
5.0
LATER
0.0
!lEVER
.
H
I-'
A.UTOMATED PROCESS MANUFACTURING
PLANT
W
10.7
78.6
8.9
1.8
0.0
0.0
6.B
0.0
0.0
5.6
1007550250-
1-1-1
78.0
0.0
0.0
1.8
1. 85
-0.29
1.63
3.19
1.75
-0.56
1.7
2.15
3.42
2.25
0.45
1. 60
3.22
2.09
-0.36
2.44
2.39
1. 57
1. 56
1. 57
2.36
2.29
0.78
2.64
2.08
3.31
0.66
0.0
66.7
61. 8
0.0
3.6
0.0
1.8
1-1-1
0.0
0.0
0.0
13.6
71.2
13.6
1.7
10075-
SO-
P.C.
0.0
0.0
0.0
6.0
1007550250-
P.C.
(-~
13.6
1--------1-1
30.9
250-
CUSTOMER QUALITY ASSURANCE
3.49
1--------1-1
27.8
1007550250-
P.C.
ROBOT-CONTROLLED AUTOMOBILE
CHECKOUT
1. 63
so-
P.C.
AUTOMATED MANUFACTURING PLMIT
0.19
0.0
10075-
P.C.
PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT SIMULATION
SYSTEM
1. 74
. 1-1-1
0.0
250-
I\)
3.35
I
0.0
7550250H
H
1. 48
0.0
AUTOMATED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERING100-
P.C.
I/1PACT PROFITABLE USEPUL
~IILL
ON
TO
TO
NOT BE
SOCIETY IMPLEMENTOR PUBLIC IMPLEMENTED
0.0
0.9
0.0
1.9
/
\
)
I 1-1--------1
52.0
30.0
II-I---~----I
57.7
26.9
12~0
13.5
"
(
\.
~
.~
t~
MANUPACTURTNG AND PROCESS CONT.
APPLICATION TITLE
AUTOMATED ROBOTS
1970-71 72-71>
1007550250-
P.C.
75-77
78-80
81-85
LATER
nEVER
WILL
IMPACT PROFITABLE USEPUL
ON
TO
TO
NOT BE
SOCIETY IMPLEMENTOR PUBLIC IMPLEMENTED
2.72
I
-----~
0.0
0.0
1.7
5.1
1. 86
1. 37
1. 70
I....._ - w
1_1 ________ "
55.9
33.9
L..._ _ _
3.1> .
H
H
H
I-'
W
W
---------'~. .ro=
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..
Automated Design EngiUAering -- The development of systems ~apable of producing new engineering designs fro
functional requirements basl!don engineering standards and practices and on prior solutions. Output is a
computerized description of the part.
~~fdQX_AN~ld~Q~
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
WILL
PROFITABLE, TO IMPLEMEN!J!OR
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
NOT BE
VERY
MODERT MARGINAL
VERY
MODERT MARGINAL IMPLEMENTED
35
35
6
6
30
32
8
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MAJOR
GROUP TOTALS
2
EXPERT TOTALS
0
LITTLE
SIGNIF.
NO
5
49
14
25
7
12
1
9
1
11
9
11
1
~~fL~M~NXAX~QN_Q4XI
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
1970-71 72-74
o
0
o
75-77
78-80
44
6
81-85
5
LATER
NEVER
1
0
0
0
1-1-1
0
.20
2
1
1-1-1
a~QQla~~_'dfd~ILlX~~~
A.
Development of specialized design languages that allow the selection of design elements and the indication of where and how they fit in the overall deSign continuity so that calculations and design
criteria can be applied.
NECESSRY
ASSET
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x38
13
0
GROUP TOTALS
1
1
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
EXPERT TOTALS
10
6
0
1
1
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
B.
Mass storage of one trillion bytes.
10x-
O.X.
10IC+
100x+ 1000"+ >1000""1"
NECESSRY
ASSET
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x10ICGROUP TOTALS
10
27
8
3
2
9
31
CONSENSUS
1-1,-1
1--1,---------1
EXPERT TOTALS
3
7
3
2
4
2
9
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
1--------1-1
C.
Search engine of 1000 times today IS capabilities.
O.K.
10"+
1
100IC"I" 1000,,+ >1000IC+
0
0
0
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CO NS ENS liS
F:XPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
D.
10
ASSET
26
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x12
1
6
2
1--1---------1
3
6
5
1--1---------1
1
2
2
10"31
1-1-1
8
7
2
0
0
0
0
'\
/
O.K.
9
3
10,,+
0
0
1-1-1
100IC"I" 1000""1" >1000x"l"
0
0
0
0
0
0
Concise, complete and machine processable representation of three dimensional objectives and their
attributes.
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
E.
Discovery
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
40
1--1-1
13
ASSET
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10IC-
12
0
0
0
5
0
0
0
1--1---------1
10"-
O.K.
10IC"I"
100IC"I" 1000,,+ >1000,,+
10".-
O.K.
10IC"I"
100IC+ 1000x+ >1000""1"
system.
NECESSRY
7
1
ASSET
29
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10"11
1
3
1--1---------1
9
4
1--1---------1
0
III. 134
3
4Ef~rQ4XrQ!-~l2Q~I~XrQ~
Automated Manufactt,g':/.ng Eng.ineering· -- The development of systems capable of taking a machine processable
description of a part, breaking its manufacture.;i,nto elementary manufacturing operations (cutting,
forming, assembling, weaving, electroplating, etc.) and then making up a manufacturing procedure from
the elementary operations available in th~ particular plant.
.
r~~4kX_4~_14kQl
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
TIILL
PROFITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
NOT BE
VERY
MODERT MARGINAL
VERY
MODERT
MARGINAL IMPLEMENTED
.rMPACT ON SOCIETY
MAJOR
GROUP TOTALS
5
EXPERT TOTALS
1
SIGNIP.
45
7
o
0
4
o
0
1
7
28
1
~
78-80
75-77
1970-71 72-74
GRO UP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
NO
LITTLE
20
3
37
6
4
2
15
7
25
30
156
1
I
I
r~~~IMI~X4Xral_Q4Xl
81-85 LATER NEVER
~6
8
1
0
1
0
0
1-1-1
8
1-1 .. 1
~l£QIll.~la_k4l?4!l.UrXU~
A.
Mass storage of 100 billion bytes.
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
8.
11
3
ASSET
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED
>10,,-
25
9
3
0
3
2
2
0
0
0
1- -1- - 1
O.K.
29
1--------1-1
1
4
10,,+
2
1
100"+ 1000"+ >10()0,,+
0
0
0
0
0
0
1- 1-I
1----------1---------1
Search engine of 100 times today's capabilities.
ASSET
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10"NECESSRY
2
1
2
22
12
GROUP TOTALS
12
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
0
0
0
2
2
3
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
1----------1---------1
C.
Concise, complete, and machine processable representation
attributes.
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
D.
10"12
ASSET
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10"-
38
11
0
0
0
5
2
0
0
0
1--1-1
1--1---------1
10"13
O.K.
29
1--------1-1
0
5
10,,+
1
0
100,,+ 1000,,+ >1000"+
0
0
0
0
0
0
I-I - I
of three dimensional objects and their
10"-
O.K.
10"+
100,,+ 1000,,+ >1000"+
Application development of a system capable of analyzing a part description for its fundamental
manufacturing operations and then combine the operations into manufacturing routings and instruction
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPER'l' TOTALS
CONSENSUS
ASSET
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10"-
44
6
1
0
0
6
1
0
0
0
1- -1-1
1--1- I
III.135
10"-
O.K.
10,,+
I!
100,,+ 1000,,+ >1000"+
&ffLL'd~IQ!_ar~QELrXIQ~
Automated Manufacturing Plant - .. The establishllient in 1 percent of. the Fortune 500 companies of a fully
automated manufacturing piOant de:~igned to carry out some subset of the poss.iLflle elementary manufacturing
operations for discrete rather than continuous products. The plant· would be capable of manuf'acturing a
wide variety of product$ concu,rrentlY and of Ch,anging the variety dynamiC. ally. Automated Design Engineer
ing and Automated Manufacturing Engineering would be included in.the system. The plant would schedule
itself on the basis of orders and forecasts, make its own purchases and control its inventory.
.
c-,"
l«fdQX_&~~_!d~Q~
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MAJOR
GROUP TOTALS 14
EXPERT TOTALS 2
SIGNIF.
LITTLE
34
21
3
3
1970-71 72-74
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
o
o
3
1
28
14
7
422
78-80
o
B
o
0
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
WILL
PROFITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
NOT BE
VERY MODERT MARGINAL
VERY MODERT MARGINAL IMPLEMENTED
NO
75-77
0
,/
8
23
15
152
41
3
L«rL~U~~r&XLQ~_adXr
81-85
42
LATER
1-1-1
2
4
1--------1-1
NEVER
8
1
0
1
A.
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74 75-77 78-80 81-85 LATER NEVER
GROUP TOTALS
15
26
9
0
3
10
8
4
8
4
EXPERT TOTALS
3
3
1
0
1
o
1
0
0
2
B.
Establishment of a guaranteed annual income removing most of labor's objections to automation.
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74
GROUP TOTALS
8
25
15
0
2
EXPERT TOTALS
1
4
2
0
0
C.
Doubling of current labor costs.
75-77
10
1
78-80
10
2
81-85
5
0
LATER
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74
75-77
8
1
78-80
15
3
81-85
17
2
LATER
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
A.
21
28
2
5
3
0
0
0
4
0
NEVER
6
2
1
1
rlEVER
2
1
0
0
a~2Qla~Q_rd2d~IuIXI~~
Network control to coordinate the central plant system and the small control computers monitoring
the processes.
NECESSRY ASSET USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED :>10x10xGROUP TOTALS
44
5
3
1
0
CONSENSUS
1--1-1
EXn:RT TOTALS
7
0
0
0
0
CONSENSUS
1--1-1
B.
Very high reliability one ~lant down time incident l2er ~ear.
O.K.
10x+
100x+ 1000x+ :>1000x+
NECESSRY ASSET USEFUL SOME USP, NO NEED :>10x10xO.K.
GROUP TOTALS
13
30
4
1
2
1
2
32
CONSENSUS
1----------1-1
1-1-1
EXPERT TOTALS
1
3
2
0
0
0
0
5
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
c. Development of better resource balancing and scheduling algorithms.1-1-1
10x+
9
100x+ 1000x+ :>1000x+
0
0
0
NECESSRY ASSET USEFUl, SOME USE NO NEED >10xGROUP TOTALS
13
34
3
1
0
CONSENSUS
1----------1-1
EXPERT TOTALS
0
7
0
0
0
CONSENSUS
1-- I-I
n. Mass storage of 100 billion bytes.
10x-
O.K.
10)(+
100x+ 1000x+ :>1000x+
NECESSRY ASSET USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10xGROUP TOTALS
11
33
5
1
1
2
CONSENSUS
1- -1- I
EXPERT TOTALS
1
5
1
0
0
0
CONSENSUS
1--1-1
7i:.
Advanced data base management system.
10x-
O.K.
10)(+
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
1
0
0
6
1
1
28
6
1-1-1
4
1
! -1-1
0
0
0
0
- //
0
0
;r-1ROUP TOTALS
~ONSENSUS
~XPERT TOTALS
~ONSENSUS
NECESSRY
33
ASSET
15
1--1---------1
4
3
1--1---------1
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x1
0
2
0
0
0
10x-
O.K.
10x+
III.136
~
--~---"-
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
L
-
4fZLl'4~IQ~_~~2'HI~rIQM
Automated Process Manufacturing Plant -- The establishment in 1 percent of the Fortune 500 Companies of
a fully automated contInuous process manufacturing plant designed to control, analyse, and process large
systems of complex machinery producing paper, chemical, etc. The plant would schedule itself on the
basis of orders and forecasts, make its own ups, and control its inventories.
(
lM~4'X-4M~f4~~~
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MAJOR
GROUP TOTALS
7
EXPERT TOTALS
3
SIGNIF.
LITTLE
23
11
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSOS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
NO
3
25
3
1970-71 72-74
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
WILL
PROFITABLE '1'0 IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL '1'0 PUBLIC
NOT BE
VERY MODERT MARGINAL
VERY MODERT UARGINAL IMPLEMENTED
25
25
5
7
27
19
9
7
9
1
2
11
3
3
1
75-77
o
0
3
o
0
3
78-80
15
lUZL~ll~~r4rIQ~_~4~~
81-85 LATER NEVER
36
0
0
1--------1-1
3
10
0
0
1--------1-1
E~~~lEE2_'4~4~I&l~lK~
A.
Ten-fold improvement in sensing equipment.
NECESSR'!
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
ASSET
USEFUL SOME USE
no
NEED >10,,-
37
8
1
0
1
0
12
2
0
0
0
0
1--1-1
1--1-1
10,,1
1
NECESSRY
(
13
29
1----------1-1
4
9
1----------1-1
of monitoring
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
ASSET
30
13
1--1---------1
10
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >1o,,-
4
0
1
2
1
0
0
1
3
1--1---------1
USEPUL SOME USE NO NEED >10,,3
0
1
0
1
6
8
2
1-1-1
10"14
O.K.
26
1--------1-1
5
6
10x+
1
0
1----1-----1
lOO,OO~sensors.
ASSET
10x+
35
100x+ 1000,,+ >1000x+
000
o
o
o
I - I-I
B. Mass storage of 100 billion b:ltes.
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
C. Capability
O.K.
0
0
0
10x14
O.K.
26
1--------1-1
4
7
1--------1-1
(
III.l37
10x+
1
0
100"+ 1000,,+ >1000"+
0
0
0
0
0
0
100"+ 1000x+ >1000"+
0
0
0
0
0
0
Automated RobQt§ -- The utilization of general purpose robots in 20 percent of the Fortune 500 companies.
These robots would be capable of performing, sensing and manipulatory operations similar to those performed by people. Programming the robots might beaocomplished by manually moving them through the
required motions.
l~fd'X_d~~_EdLQ~
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
WILL
PROFITABLE" TO IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
NOT BE
VERY MODERT MARGINAL
VERY MODERT MARGINAL IMPLEMENTED
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MAJOR
GROUP TOTALS
24
EXPERT TOTALS
4
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
SIGNIF.
LITTLE
o
o
5
1970-71 72-74
o
0.
o
NO
16
28
6
75-77
1
78-80.
3
o
0
15
1
17
15
46
46316
23
7
9
5
5
lUEL~UEaXdrIQa_adX:
81-85 LATER NEVER
33
20.
2
1-1--------1
7
6
1-1--------1
0
A.
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
B.
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74
5
26
17
0
2
3
7
3
0
1
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74
5
78-80.
10
2
81-85
3
1
LATER
7
2
NEVER
14
6
24
6
11
1
.
0
0.
3
0.
75-77
78-80
81-85
6
3
LATER
8
NEVER
3
2
11
4
3
1
1
2
o
«EQQrREQ_'dfA~fLlrIE~
Development in heuristic programm1ng to make possIE e tlie generation of programs through manually
stepping of the motions.
NECESSRY
CROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
F:XPF:RT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
B.
9
The establishment of tax incentives for investment in automation.
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
A.
75-77
ASSET
USEFUL SOliE USE NO NEED >lo.x-
19
26
3
1
1
2
8
1
0.
0.
1----------1-1
O.K.
1- - I-I
Sensors capable of making visual distinguishments approaching the capability of the human eye.
NECESSRY
CROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
15
ASSET
28
1----------1-1
2
8
1- -1- 1
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >lo.x3
1
4
1
0.
III. 138
0
lo.x-
O.K.
10x+
100x+ 10.0.0.><+ >lo.DOx+
Automated Wareho\ises
The conversion of I percent of the warehouses in Fortune 500 companies to
computerized control of stacking and picking, and movement to and from docks and/or manufacturing floor.
(
l~fdaX-&lia_r~~Q~
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
WILL
PROFITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
NOT BE
VERY MODERT MARGINAL
VERY HODERT MARGINAL TMPLEMENTED
31
37
5
8
23
32
5
14
14
2
4
10
12
2
nfPACT ON SOCIETY
MAJOR
GROUP TOTALS
4
2
EXPERT TOTALS
SIGNIF.
18
46
16
9
1970-71 72-74
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
NO
12
5
LITTLE
o
1
o
0
75-77
78-80
21
35
r~rHl'J.~!lUXrQ!LI2dx.~
81-85
3
1-1--------1
11
17
LATER
0
1
NEVER
0
0
0
1-1--------1
4a~i1iEdx.lrra_~!Q_E~x.dE~rll~_ldax.Qg~
A.
Twenty five percent reduction in cost of picking and stacking units.
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
B.
(
78-80
81-85
7
NEVER
3
o
3
8
LATER
2
3
2
3
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74
19
22
9
0
5
12
12
2
0
2
75-77
10
5
78-80
5
81-85
3
LATER
8
4
3
2
2
NEVER
5
Establishment of guaranteed annual income removing most labor's objections to automation.
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
A.
75-77
17
Establishment of tax incentives for investment in automation equipment.
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
C.
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74
10
29
10
0
5
7
14
5
0
2
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74
27
14
9
0
3
6
14
6
0
1
75-77
12
8
78-80
9
2
81-85
5
3
LATER
5
2
NEVER
1
1
g~CQrHE2_'~E~fr~lx.l~Q
Advanced data base management.
10xNECESSRY ASSET USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x4
GROUP TOTALS
30
10
6
2
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
EXPERT TOTALS
13
3
3
5
1
CONSENSUS
1--1-----------------1
B.
Relatively high reliability. No outages of greater than 1 hour.
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
NECESSRY
27
ASSET
17
1--1---------1
9
10
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED > 10x6
0
1
0
4
10x1
O.X.
O.K.
43
10Xi-
10Xi0
100Xi- 1000xi- >1(iOOx1-
100Xi- 1000Xi- >1000xi0
00
0
f - I-I
0
1----------1-1
1
0
1
19
1-1-1
III. 139
0
0
0
0
Customer Quality Assuranoe -- The installation of computer supported or controlled 100 percent
quality assurance tests systems for 20 percent of the consumer products. The need for such systems
will be brought about by massive consumer pressure forcing government regulations requiring longterm warranties of quality and safety. The warranties will be enforced with significant penalties
for products that fail to meet their warranty.
IMfAQX_ARQ_EALQl
WILL
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
NOT BE
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
PROFITA8LE TO IMPLEMENTOR
VERY MODERT MARGINAL IMPLEMEN'J'TW
VERY MODERT MARGINAL
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MAJOR
GROUP TOTALS 13
EXPERT TOTALS 3
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
16
2
25
4
1
4
0
0
78-BO
1
75-77
1970-71 72-74
o
0
o
NO
LITTLE
SIGNIF.
o
31
11
7
5
3
0
13
0
LMf'iM£RXAXLe!_QAXi
81-85
30
LATER
NEVER
14
7
1-1--------1
o
0
16
1
29
8
1
5
2
0
1-1--1
4QQi~a4XL«Q_ARQ_H£XABQL«a_r4QXQB~
A.
Legislation establishing and enforcing warranty requirements.
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
14
5
17
3
7
0
1
1
3
1
75-77
10
78-80
10
81-85
3
1
o
2
3
LATER
6
NEVER
1
o
H£~QLH£Q_Q4fA~LkLXL£~
A.
~E..-time§:
improvement in test monitoring and sensing equipment.
lOx .. 100x" 1000x+ >1000x+
10xO.K.
NECESSR! ASSET USEFUL SOME USP. NO NEED >10x0
9
0
0
a
0
1
32
?
1
'GROUP TOTALS
35
8
CONSENSUS
1-1-1
1--1-1
0
0
0
0
6
0
0
0
1
EXPERT TOTALS
5
1
t
CONSENSUS
1-1-1
1--1---------1
B. Network control to coordinate monitor and test computers located throughout the plant.
'\
,
j
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSEN8US
ASSET
32
9
6
1
1--1---------1
1--1--1
USEFUL SOME USP. NO NEED >10x2
1
1
1
0
0
III.l40
10x-
O.K.
10x+
10nx+ 1000x+ >1000x+
Product Development Simulation System -- The utilization by 20 percent of the Fortune 500 Companies of
computer-systems that simulates the construction of basic components at the lowest level, connecting
these into larger sub-assemblies up to final product level. This system will not only predict the parts
usage required, but also predicts the comparative cost/performance of substitutions as well as providing
detailed manufacturing instructions.
I«£!4~_4!llLf41t.Il£
PILL
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
NOT BP.
PROFITAELE TO IMPLEMENTOP
USP.FUL TO PUELIC
VERY MODF:RT MARGInAL
VP.RY MODERT MARcn7AL IMPLP.I"P.NTED
[MPACT ON SOCIETY
MAJOR
CROUP TOTALS
2
EXPERT TOTALS 0
CROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
SIGNlF.
32
8
14
1970-71 72-74
o
0
o
NO
LITTLF:
17
28
11
9
78-80
17
75-77
1
0
19
5
2
8
5
24
4
5
B
24
10
7
4
Z«f~i~!lr4XlQ!l_Q4t~
81-85
34
LATER
NEVER
2
1
1
0
1--------1-1
9
1
12
1--------1-1
B~QQLRIQ_a4f4~L~LXl~~
A. Interactive terminal system with complex search and interactive pattern matching for use in building
evaluating and optimizing the models.
rf
NECESSRY ASSET USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x400
37
7
CROUP TOTALS
CONSENSIIS
1--1-1
o
o
15
3
3
EXPP.RT TOTALS
CONSP.NSU.1
1--1---------1
E. Service to assist in modei development.
10x-
O.K.
10x+
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
NU·P.SSRY ASSET lIS'f':FUL .10UE U.1E NO NF.P.D >10"GT/OUP TO'!'ALS
'3
2
0
27
'3
CONSP.NSlfS
1--1-1
2
0
2
5
EXPNPT TOTAL[:
12
CONSP.NSU.1
1--1---------1
r:. Mass storage of 100 billion bytes.
10"-
o.r..
10"+
100"+ 1000,,+ >1000"+
NV,r:ESSRY ASSET USEPIJL SOMr-: liS p. NO NEED >10"~'1
10
2
0
GROUP TOTAL.1
11
1
CONSENSI/S
1--1---------1
7
P.XPERT "'OTALS
'1
9
1
0
1
CONSF:N.r;I!S
1--1---------1
n. Advanced data base management system.
10"15
O.K.
10"+
100"+ 1000K+ >1000><+
0
0
0
(;R()UP T()TA LS
CONSPN.'HlS
~'XPP.l1T '!'()'!'A[..'j
r:()NSP,',I.r;uS
NFr.r.S8l?Y
33
ASS ,~'!'
US."'PIJL ."fOM? US P- NO NeED >10"-
11
2
0
1
II
2
0
0
1--1---------1
15
1--1---------1
III .141
25
i
1--------1-1
5
12
0
O.K.
10"+
0
0
0
1--------1-1
10"-
100"+ 1000)(+ >1000"+
Robot-Controlled Automobile Checkout -- The checking of 5 percent of the U. S. auto production by
robots test driving on 'test tracks for safety, performance and repeatability of all functions. Results
are recorded on-line ana a profile of the vehicle charact$ristics produced immediately.
l~Ed'X_d~~_ldL~1
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MAJOR
GROUP TOTALS
6
EXPERT TOTALS 2
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
SIGNIF.
8
LITTLE
37
5
o
1970-71 72-74
o
0
o
NO
3
o
75-77
78-BO
o
3
o
0
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
WILL
PROFITABLE '1'0' IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL '1'0 PUBLIC
NOT BE
VERY MODER'!' MARGINAL
VERY UODERT MARGINAL I'1PLEMENTED
8
29
10
12
20
13
15
1 3 3 3 1
2
2
1
lMELIHr~XdXlQ~_Q4Xl
81-85
26
LATER
15
NEVER
1-'--------1
5
2
1-1--'
6
0
ElQgI~EQ_~dE4~ILlXll~
A. One hundred times improvement in robot/sensor development.
NECESSRY ASSET USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10xGROUP TOTALS
33
6
2
0
0
0
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
3
3
0
0
0
CONSENSUS
B. Multi-attribute pattern matching.
,--,-,
10x2
O.K.
29
10x+
6
100x1- 1000x1- >1000x+
0
0
0
O.K.
10)(+
100)(1- 1000)(1- >1000x1-
,-,-,
,------1-----'
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
36
'--'-1
7
,- - I-I
ASSET
2
0
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x0
1
0
0
0
10x-
0
,,- j
III.142
MEDIA
The media industry has recently begun to move its use of data
processing into the main stream of the businesses. A Japanese
television network uses a system for production scheduling and
control of all of its programming. Many newspapers and periodicals employ computerized typesetting. These trends will continue.
By 1980 twenty percent of the national and international periodicals will use computer systems for editing, layout, proofread
and printing. This will include customization for regional,
sectional, and even smaller groupings of their subscribers.
The advent of the home terminal in the 1980's will provide an
increased opportunity for customized delivery to the public. In
1985 one percent of the homes in the United States will use the
home terminal to request desired programs and to request more
in-depth coverage for items of particular interest. By the end
of the 1980's use of home terminals will have substantially
increased and 5 percent of them will be equipped for hard
copy printout of individualized newspapers, periodicals, articles,
etc.
By 1985 a centralized automated subscription service will be
offered to publishers removing from them the necessity of maintaining their own subscription lists.
(
(
1II.143
NEDIA
APPLICATION TITLE
1970-71 72-74
AUTOMATED PERIODICAL PUl?LISHI!!G
AUTOMATED SUBSCRIPTION SERVICE
75-77
78-80
1007550250-
1-1-1
P.C.
86.0
0.0
0.0
3.5
81-85
P.C.
8.8
1--------1-1
0.0
0.0
1.8
27.3
P.C.
~
.......
~
ELECTRONIC DELIVERY OF HARn COpy
~
....
....
2.00
0.10
1.15
2.73
1. 66
-0.39
2.22
1. 95
2.11
1. 35
2.08
2.00
2.35
0.83
0.0
I
54.5
10.9
5.5
I
0.0
1.5
1.5
7.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
8.2
(~""
)
3.21
1_1 ________ 1'
1007550250-
P.C.
\
1.8
100755025. 0-
1. 46
I
SO-
ENTERTAIN~ENT
IMPACT PROFITABLE USEFUL
WILL
ON
TO
TO
NOT BE
SOCIETY If.~LEMENTOR PUBLIC IMPLEMENTED
NETIER
10075250-
. INTERACTIVE NEWS AND
LATE!?
\.
/
61.2
25.4
1-1--------1
45.9
39.3
3.0
J
..
. 6.6
(1
'"
,./
Automated Periodical Publishing -- The utilization of computer by 20 percent of the national and international
publications to edit, layout, proofread, and print periodicals with customized regional and sectional editions.
lMf4'r_4~~_£4kU~
REASONS FOP IMPLEMENTATION
WILL
N(lT BP,
PROFITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
VERY MODERT MARGINAL
VERY MODERT MARr.INAL IMPLEMP,NTED
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MAJOR
GROUP TOTALS
3
EXPERT TOTALS 2
SIGNIF.
NO
LITTLE
41
16
12
5
16
8
6
1
38
14
8
2
5
2
24
11
29
9
2
o
I~E~M~~r4rIQ!_a4fE
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
1970-71 72-74
o
0
o
78-80
49
75-77
2
LATER
18
NEVER
5
1
0
3
o
o
1-1-1
1
0
81-85
I-I -I
A. Advanced photo composition systems.
H~2MlR~~_~4E4~IklrI'~
NECESSRY ASSET USEFUL SOMl? USE NO NEED >101<0
40
0
GROUP TOTALS
10
7
CONSENSUS
I - -I -I
14
6
0
0
EXPERT TOTALS
0
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
B. Availability of the application software $1,OOO/month.
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
F:XPEPT TOTALS
CONSl!:NSUS
12
ASSET
32
USEF'UL SOME USE NO NEl?D
3
0
1
2
0
0
1---1-1
5
11
1----------1-1
>101<0
101<-
O.K.
10"+
100"+ 1000"+ >1000x+
101<0
O.K.
101<+
7
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
0
0
0
34
1-1-1
0
0
13
0
1
0
1-1-1
--
III.l45
..............................
_--_ __.__ __
..
._.
.
----
- - - _... - --_
..
-----
--
0
Automated Subsoription Service -- Tbe availability of a fully automated subscription system for processing 20
percent of the top 200 periodic publication'. Information and data will be handled by one general subscription
house clearing applications and processing renewals and cancellations. The system will permit terminal inquiry
for all member publishers to .gather data of particular cOncern, e.g., circulation, advertising lineage, and othel
marketing indicies.
LMf4't-4~Q_!4ka'
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MAJOR
0
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS 0
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CaNSENSl/S
SIGNIF'.
LITTLE
NO
35
7
11
12
4
1970-71 72-74
0
0
0
75-77
1
2·9
9
14
4
3
78-80
15
12
0
5
2
30
4
16
6
-....... /
8
3
LHf~'M~!X4XIQ!_Q4X'
81-85 LATER NEVER
30
6
3
1--------1-1
1
0
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
WILL
PROFITABLE TO IMPLP.JMENTOR
USEPUL TO PUBLIC
NOT BE
VERY MODERT MARGINAL
VERY MODERT MARGINAL IMPLEMENTED
4
5
4
2
1--------1--------1
.
~aQ[HIQ_'4f4~1~IXII~
A. Mass data storage of one trilll.on
NECESSRY ASS?T
GROUP TOTALS
10
33
CONSENSUS
1--1-1
EXPERT TOTALS
3
10
CONSENSUS
1--1-1
B. Network control.
b~tes.
USEFUL SOMP. USE NO NP.ED >10lC5
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
10lC31
O.K.
12
1-1--------1
8
2
10><+
0
0
100><+ 10(0)(+ >10(,)OlC+
(l
0
0
0
0
1- 1-I
NECESSRY ASSET USEPUL SOME USE NO NP.ED >10)(GROUP TOTALS
29
16
3
0
1
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
EXPERT TOTALS
11
2
0
0
1
CONSF:NSU8
1--1-1
C. Massive communication interface 10,000 lines.
10)(-
O.K.
10><+
0
100><+ 1000><+ >1000)(+
/
NP.CF:SSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSF:NSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONS.1i:NfWS
9
ASSgT
35
1-- 1-I
3
10
1- -I -I
l/SEFllL SOME USE NO Nl?ED >10)(1
1
2
2
1
0
0
0
10)(17
O.K.
21
1
1--------1-1
5
5
1----1-----1
III.146
10><+
0
100)(+ 100(')(+ >100I)lC+
0
0
0
0
(1
0
\.....J
~~~~lQ4XlQ«_~E~QH1~XlQ~
Electronic Delivery of HardCopy -- The availability of the electronic delivery of a wide variety of hard
copy items via the home terminal to 5 percent of the homes. Items could be viewed, and hard copy selected
or rejected. Items might include newspapers, periodicals, mail, etc.
lH~~QX_~!Q_r~~QE
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
WILL
PROFITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
NOT BE
VERY MODERT MARGINAL
VERY
MODERT MM?GINAL IMPLEMENTED
6
27
19
13
2 I!16
18
2 9 2 6 6
1
2
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MAJOR
GROUP TOTALS
8
EXPERT TOTALS
3
SIGNIF.
LITTLE
26
2
6
I!-
1
1970-71 72-71!CROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
A.
o
0
o
o
0
o
78-80
5
1
l~E~EME«X4XlQ~_~4XE
81-85 LATER NEVER
28
2 I!4
,-,--------,
8
6
1-'--------,
0
. h ~EQgl~EQaQ~~~~l~laTlE~
NECESSRY
43
i --1-1
13
ASSET
~oto
oar
copy an
v1deo display capability (could be video cassette.;
USEFUL SOliE USE NO NEED >10><-
5
2
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1--'-1
10x1
0
NECESSRY
31
ASSET
12
1--1---------,
9
2
1--'---------,
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x5
1
0
0
1
1
0
0
10x4
1
High capacity two-way communication channels.
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
37
ASSET
10
I--i---------,
12
0
1--1-1
O.K.
39
1-1-1
8
1-1-1
Mass storage of 100 billion bytes.
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTAL!]
CONSENSUS
("
75-77
Low cost ($5-40/month) terminal W1t
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
B.
NO
23
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x-
4
0
1
1
0
1
III. 147
10x-
O.K.
31
'-'-I
6
10x+
1
0
10x+
8
3
,-,--------,
O.K.
10x+
100x+ 1000><+ >1000x+
0
0
0
0
0
0
100x+ 1000><+ >1000x+
0
0
0
0
0
0
100><+ 1000><+ >1000><+
Interactive News and Entertai.nment -- The availability in 1 percent oflj;OII1es of media service that
allows the sUbscriber to choose at his home terminal from a wide variety of offerings. His selection
is individually transmitted to him. If he desires, he.may req~estmore ~n-dep~.coverage of particular
items of interest.
r~~AQ:r..~flI2~lAIlll.E
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
WILL
PROFITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
NOT BE
VERY MOD~R'l' MARGINAL
VERY MODERT MARGINAL IMPLEMENTED
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MMOR
GROUP TOTALS 14
EXPERT TOTALS 4
NO
LITTLE
SIGNIF.
28
8
28
10
c
14
24
18
577
6
1
19
22
12
781
37
12
IU~~EME~XAXIQ~_I2AIl
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
75-77
1
1970-71 72-7'+
o
1
o
78-80
5
o
0
81-85
41
LATER
NEVER
17
2
5
1
1-1------ . . -1
17
2
1-1-1
~QQ~~i~AXI~a_dflQ_~~XdgI2IflQ_ldQXQ~2
A.
The availability of CATV in 1% of the homes.
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74 75-77
GROUP TOTALS
14
28
12
0
5
14
EXPERT TOTALS
8
9
502
7
B.
FCC authorization for new switched communication channels.
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
A.
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74
12
6
27
8
8
3
0
0
8
3
75-77
8
4
78-80
20
8
81-85
7
1
LATER
78-80
18
7
81-85
3
0
LATER
o
o
NEVER
o
o
NEVER
0
0
1
0
~~Qll.I~EQ_Q~Ed~IIlIXIE~
Inexpensive television like terminal with two-way communication $5-25 l2er month.
NECESSRY ASSET USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >101(GROUP TOTALS
50
6
0
1
0
2
CONSENSUS
1--1-1
EXPERT TOTALS
20
2
0
0
1
0
CONSENSUS
1--1-1
B. Massive communication interface.
101(1
0
O.K.
49
1001(+ 10001(+ >1000x+
1
0
0
1-1-1
16
1-1-1
NECESSRY ASSET USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >101(GROUP TOTALS
53
2
0
0
1
CONSENSUS
1--1-1
EXPERT TOTALS
18
o
2
o
o
CONSENSUS
1--1-1
C.
lIigh capacity two-way communication channels.
10x+
1
O.K.
1
101(+
0
0
0
1001(+ 10001(+ >10001(+
NECESSRY ASSET USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >101(101(1001(+ 10001(+ >10001(+
O.K.
GROUP TOTALS
35
18
1
1
4
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
EXPERT TOTALS
11
11
o
o
o
CONSENSUS
1------1-----1
D. High reliability - no more than 1 unscheduled interruption per month not to exceed 15 minutes.
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPEHT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
NECESSRY
6
ASSET
30
USEFUL SOME USE NO !!EED .>101(16
1--1---------1
1
14
6
1--1---------1
2
4
3
0
1
0
101(9
O.K.
40
1-1-1
3
14
1-1-1
III.148
10><+
0
0
1001(+ 1000)(+ >1000><+
0
0
0
0
0
0
(-"
~-j
MEDICAL
(
One of the more interesting areas of future use of data processing
is in the area of providing assistance in the improved delivery of
health care. Already pilot efforts are under way to provide
computerized analysis of medical tests such as EKG, EEG, etc.
By 1980 twenty percent of the physicians will have such service
available to them via a terminal located in their office. In the
same time frame twenty percent of the hospitals will provide
computerized multi-phasic screening as part of their admittance
procedure. The system collects personal data, general health
statements, specific complaints, etc. on arrival, schedules a
series of tests, conducts many of them, monitors the results of
the tests and schedules additional tests where indicated. The
results are presented to the physician for medical evaluation.
Possibly by 1980 and certainly no later than 1985 twenty percent
of the larger hospitals will have computerized systems for medical
diagnosis. Input into these systems may come directly from multiphasic screening systems. Computerized patient monitoring is
becoming more common today. This trend will continue into the
future culminating in 1985 with the availability in 20 percent
of the metropolitan areas of the ability to monitor ambulatory
out-patients who are suspected of having or have a history of
medical disorders.
(
The form of health care delivery itself will change in the future.
In the 1980-85 time frame 20 percent of the metropolitan areas
will have available computer coordinated vertically integrated
health facilities. These facilities will include physician
offices, neighborhood health care centers, hospitals, university
medical centers, nursing homes, rehabilitation centers and home
health care. A patient entering the system is moved to the
proper level to treat his health problem and as his problem
progresses, either positively or negatively, he may be shifted to
a different level. Coordination of the use of facilities is done
by a computer which tracks the patient while he is in the system
recording and maintaining his medical and administrative data.
New types of health facilities will be introduced. In 1980-85 five
percent of the population will have access to Preventive Medicine
Diagnostic centers which combine the characteristics of multiphasic screening and clinical decision systems but are directed
toward periodic physical checkups. These centers may be operated
by health insurance companies who will encourage utilization by
providing insurance premiums incentives.
c
II1.149
/IF.nICAL
PTiOPTTARLE USEFUL
WILL
TO
TO
NOT BE
SOCIETY IMPLEMENTOR PUBLIC INPLENENTED
IMPACT
._r.
T(J!l
"'1 m
!
~
T'
r. "7 '"
~
.,.,
7~- ""II
78-"'1
75-77
'11-115
LA.TE.1?
NEVER
COMPUTERIZED "F'lJCAL TEST ANALYSIS 100755025T'.
COMPUTER COORVIflATETi TESTING OP
MEDICAL DRUGS
ac.
mlLTI-PHASIC SCREENING
H
H
H
.~
111
o·
1007550250P.C.
VERTICALLY INTEGRATED HEALTH CARE
DELIVERY SYSTEM
PREVENTIVE MEDICINE TJIAGNOSTTC
CENTERS
1007550250P.C.
1007550250P.C.
71 .
l}
0.0
3.12
3.62
0.10
2.95
2.37
3.54
0.25
2.96
2.55
3.41
0.40
2.76
2.61
3.37
0.33
2.68
2.13
3.35
0.40
2.85
2.12
2.81
0.61
2.85
2.40
3.18
0.62
2.51
1. 22
1. 71
"'1. 90
0.0
I
0.0
0.0
68.6
0.0
31. 4
0.0
0.0
1-1--------1
0.0
1.7
51. 7
1.7
40.0
5.0
0.0
I" 1-1--------1
D.O
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.0
54.8
3.2
4.8
37.1
1--------1-1
0.0
26.0
2.0
19.6
68.0
6.0
0.0
16.7
1.7
0.0
1~ I-I
52.'3
21. 6
2.0
L-
i -1-1
0.0
0.0
63.3
16.7
1.7
10050250P.C.
2.50
1-1--------1
7:;-
(~~
21.4
!~
1007550250-
p.e.
OUT--:'I'JJENT :'OflITORING
5.
1007550 250-
p.e.
DISEASE IlIPORf1ATION SYSTEMS
1.8
1007550250-
p.e.
CLINCAL DECISrON <:UPPORT SYSTE!fS
0.0
ON
I
0.0
0.0
1.6
3.2
/~-
,
I
<
/
I
1-1--------1
54.0
3'3.7
1.6
Clinical Decisiop Support Systems -- The availability of a clinical decision support system in 20 percent
of the hospitals of over 500 beds. The system assists the physician in making diagnoses and prescribing
treatment by evaluating symptoms and test results (perhaps, collected in a multi-phasic screening system)
recommending additional tests and/or giving a list of possible diagnoses with the associated medical reason(-- '-'1g. When a diagnosis is reached, the system recommends treatment again with the medical reasoning.
r«fd'X_d~~_ldM~~
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MAJOR
GROUP TOTALS 20
EXPERT TOTALS 5
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
A.
SIGNIF.
LITTLE
43
1970-71 72-74
o
1
o
NO
14
1
6
17
4
4
o
36
5
16
2
43
10
20
1
5
0
11
1
1&~~gMg~X~XrQ~_2dX~
75-77
78-80
31
1
81-85
24
LATER
1-1--------1
7
4
1-1--------1
o
0
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
WILL
PROFITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
NOT BE
VERY MODERT MARGINAL
VERY MODERT MARGINAL IMPLEMENTED
NEVER
3
0
0
0
Mass storage of 100 billion bytes.
NECESSRY ASSET USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10xGROUP TOTALS
9
28
2
11
1
3
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
rPERT TOTALS
1
7
2
0
0
0
CONSENSUS
1--1-1
B. Multi-attribute pattern matching.
NECESSRY ASSET USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10xGROUP TOTALS
34
11
4
1
1
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
EXPERT TOTALS
5
3
1
o
1
CONSENSUS
1------1-----1
C. Ten-fold increase in sensor technology.
NECF-SSR:!
14
ASSET
1-1-1
6
O.K.
11
10x+
0
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
O.K.
10x+
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
10x+
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
1-1-1
10x-
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x -
27
7
0
1
0
2
0
0
0
7
1
0
0
0
o
o
o
o
1----------1-1
2
10x32
1-- I-I
personnel trained in data
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
NECESSR:!
37
ASSET
10
1--1---------1
6
3
1--1---------1
USEFUL SOUE USE NO NEED >10x3
1
1
0
1
0
(-/
III.ISl
10x-
O.K.
10x+
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
Computer Coordinated 'testing of Medical Dr~s' -- The implementation of a manda'-ory comprehensive testil.lg
pr09'ram for druqs and fOdaprodUCts p:dor . their release to qen~ral use. The program wc;>uld be adminl.stered
and/or coordinated by the~oVernment and would be aimed at detectl.oq long-ranqe adverse sl.de effects as well
as determining druq effect.iveness. The coo1'dination and analysis would be computer assisted.
lU:d'X_4J[ILI4kU.Gl
IMPACT ON SOCIETl
MAJOR
GROUP TOTALS 15
EXPER'! TOTALS 4
SIGNIE'.
LITTLE
30
7
A.
o
0
3
0
15-17
18-80
35
o
o
0
10
4
25
5
15
1
29
9
20
2
4
0
5
2
I.Ml!ltll!1GlllXdXl.Ql!_.l2I.Xll
81-85
16
LATER
NEVER
0
0
1-1--------1
140
1-1--------1
0
a~Qll.l«:Q-'dl!4~I.~I.XI.Gle
Mass data storage of one trillion bytes.
GROUP TOTALS
C0f{ENSUS
EX ERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
B.
o
NO
9
3
1970-71 12-74
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
. REASONS FOR IMPLEMEN'!A!PION
WILL
PROFITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
USEPUL TO PUBLIC
NO'1' BE
VERI MODER!! MARGINAL
VERI MODERT MARGINAL IMPLEMENTED
NECESSR!
10
ASSE'!
29
1--1-1
6
1----------1-1
3
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >101(3
0
3
0
0
1
12
101(22
1--------1-1
2
5
1-1-1
Multi-attribute pattern matching.
NECESSR! ASSET USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >101(10xCROUP TOTALS
34
8
1
1
1,
CONSENSUS
1--1-1
EXPERT TOTALS
7
2
0
1
0
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
C. Discovery system to discover secondary and tertiary effects.
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
NECESSR!
30
ASSET
12
1--1---------1
6
3
1--1---------1
USEFUL SOME USf, NO NEED >101(1
1
1
0
1
0
III.l'S2
101(-
O.K.
8
101(+
0
2
0
O.K.
10K",
100x+ 1000K", >10001(+
0
0
0
0
0
0
100x+ 10001(+ >1000x",
/
O.• K.
10x+
1001(+ 1000x+ >1000x+
".
'.
4~~~1'4XIQ!_~E~'Hl~XIQ~
f--
Computerized f~edical Test Analysis -- Computer-assisted interpretation of quantifiable medical tests, e.g.
EKG, EEG, etc., for 20 percent of the physicians. The service would accept input from the conventional
recording equipment doctors now have in their offices and would provide results through a terminal in the
doctor's office or via telephone voice response.
IM~4'X_4~Q_l4~~g
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
WILL
PROFITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
NOT BE
VERY MODERT MARGINAL
VERY
MODERT MARGINAL IMPLEMENTED
17
31
9
27
26
4
2
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
UAJOR
GROUP TOTALS
7
EXPERT TOTALS
4
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
SIGNIF.
19
1
o
2
75-77
1970-71 72-74
o
1
o
NO
LITTLE
32
13
8
7B-80
40
3
8
1
11
10
12
0
0
1
3
14
1-1- 1
2
0
0
ASSET
34
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x4
0
0
2
10x0
1--1-1
3
NECESSR Y
33
ASSET
11
1--1---------1
10
4
1--1---------1
$100 per month.
O.X.
39
10x+
5
100x+ 1000)(+ >1000x+
0
0
0
1-1-1
2
11
0
1
0
0
1--1-1
B. Multi-attribute pattern matching.
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
1
1-1-1
~IQ~llllQ_'4~4~1~llIE~
NECESSRY
0
lU~~lME~X4XIQ!_Q4Xl
Bl-85 LATER NEVER
A. Availability of the application programs from a service organization.
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
7
12
1
0
0
0
1-1-1
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x-
1
2
1
o
2
1
III.lS3-
10x-
O.K.
10)(+
100x+ 1000)(+ >1000)(+
4ff'l'4~lQ«_Qr~BlfflQ!
Disease Information Sistems -- The availability in 20 percent of the metropolitan areas of systems to
record the diseases dagnosed by·ph,sicians in the area.;.. , The system would be used to detect epidemics
in their early stages, and disease trends such as the rise of new diseases, or effectiveness of preventive measures on old diseases.
.
lME4'l_4!Q_!4'Ur
REASONS F()R IMPLEMENTATION
WILL
PROFITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
~OT BE
YERY MODERT MARGINAL
YF:RY MODERT MARGINAL IMPL7SMENTED
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MAJOR
GROUP TOTALS
9
EXPERT TOTALS 2
CROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
SIGNIF.
11
o
19
29
16
8
8
2
841
l~f'r~r!r4llQ!_Q4fl
81-85
34
LATER
1--------1-1
o
21
354
78-80
13
75-77
0
10
1
1
3
1970-71 72-74
o
0
o
NO
LITTLE
35
8
4
7
NEYER
3
0
0
0
1--------1-1
BIQQlBIQ_'4fAi~lrl~
A. Automatic generation of information systems.
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
5
o
ASSET
27
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x7
0
6
0
3
10x-
O.K.
lOx10
O.K.
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
1--1---------1
6
1
1--1-------------------------1
B. Mass storage of 100 billion bytes.
CROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
NECESSRY
8
ASSF,T
26
USEFUL SOME USP. NO N1?ED >lOx8
1
2
2
1
0
2
1
1--1-1
1
6
1--1---------1
26
10x+
1
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
0
0
0
1--------1-1
2
3
1----1-----1
0
0
0
0
('
III. 154
'-.
Multi-Phasic Screening .- The use of computerized multi-phasic screening prior to admittance to 20 percent
of the hospitals of over SOO beds. The system collects personal data, general health statements, specific
complaints, etc., on arrival, schedules a series of tests, cQnducts many of them, monitors the results of
the tests and schedules additional tests where indicated, and presents the results of the ~screening to a
physician for medical evaluation.
IM~4'X_~~Q_!4~QK
WILL
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
NOT BE
PROFITA8LE TO IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
VERY
MODERT MARGINAL
VERI MODERT MARGINAL IMPLEMENTED
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MAJOR
GROUP TOTALS
13
EXPERT TOTALS
4
17
48
12
o
0
o
0
14
4
3
o
2
75-77
1970-71 72-74
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
NO
LITTLE
SIGNIF.
78-80
34
2
44
9
41
10
21
2
8
2
9
4
IM~~~~:~14XlQ!-QAXB
81-85
23
LATER
1-1--------1
1
12
1
6
6
NEVER
3
0
1
0
1----1-----1
4Q':~:B4XI!a_4~~_B:X4B~IMa_r4'XQB~
A.
Passage of a Nationalized Health Insurance Act similar to Great Britain.
ABSOLUTE POSSI8LE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
A.
19
29
2
0
5
5
6
1
0
1
78-80
14
3
81-85
LATER
3
NEVER
4
4
1
3
1
2
Mass storage of 100 billion bytes.
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
B.
75-77
17
7
0
ASSET
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x-
26
15
1
4
4
5
5
0
1
2
1--1---------1
1----------1-1
10x20
O.K.
22
1-1--------1
4
4
10x+
0
0
100x+ 1000x+ >1000)(+
0
0
0
0
0
0
1-1--------1
Ten-fold increase in sensor technology.
10x10x+ 100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
NECESSRY
ASSET
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10xO.K.
CROUP TOTALS
29
7
36
0
0
15
0
6
2
1
1
1
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
1-1-1
EXPERT TOTALS
4
0
0
0
0
8
5
2
0
0
0
2
CONSENSUS
1----------1-1
1- 1-I
C.
Development of the application programs by a service having access to medical personnel trained
in data processing.
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
D.
ASSET
30
17
6
4
1--1---------1
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10)(4
1
1
1
1------1-----1
0
10x-
O.K.
10)(+
100x+ 1000)(+ >1000x+
10x-
O.K.
10><+
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
1
Advanced data base management.
NECESSRY
CROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
ASSET
USEPUL SO!-fE USE NO llP.ED >10x-
28
17
4
2
1
6
5
0
0
1
1--1---------1
1------1-----1
III.lSS
dffLla4XrQa_Q:~aalfXIQ«
Out-Patient Monitorin9 -- The avail.ability of out-patient monitoring in 20 percent of the metropolitan
areas. Ambulatory patients with a history or suspseoted medical disorder are fitted with sensors and
telemetry equipment to be monitored by the central system. rn the event of the deteotion of a problem,
the system could request a hospital visit via the telemetry equipment or sound a loud request for
assistance depending on the severity.
IUfdaX_4~Q_£4L~:
R1!ASONS POR IMPLEMENTATION
rlr LL
PROPITABLE !PO IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL '1'0 PUBLIC
NOT BE
VERY
MODERT MARGINAL
VERY
MOPERT MARGINAL IMPLEMENTED
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MAJOR
GROUP TOTALS
15
EXPERT TOTALS
3
38
17
7
3
o
0
o
0
15
15
241
78-80
2
1
o
o
19
13
6
240
~
2
1
75-77
1970-71 72-74
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
NO
LITTLE
SIGNIF.
52
7
rUfL:U:~X4XIQl-Q4X:
81-85 LATER NEVER
34
25
1
1-1--------1
6
6
1
1--------1-1
4aaBL:a4xr~~_d~~_ft:X4ftQr~~_EdaXQft~
A. FCC making available the necessary communication channels for public transmission.
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
B.
12
30
9
0
2
3
7
1
0
1
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EF'PECT 1970-71. 72-74
18
5
26
4
5
0
2
lOa
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74
11
29
3
6
LATER
2
NEVP.R
o
o
1
9
2
o
75-77
10
4
78-80
15
2
81-85
7
1
MTER
4
1
10
2
0
0
6
75-77
7
1
4
78-80
11
1
81-85
LATER
NEVER
2
0
8
1
2
1
aBaQIllgQ_~4E4EILIXrB£
NECESSRY
49
1- - 1- 1
10
1--1-1
ASr:ET
3
0
USEFUL SOME USE NO NPED >10x-
0
a
a
0
0
0
0
0
High availability central systems
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTAlS
CONSENSUS
F.XPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
c.
81-85
Inexpensive miniaturized reliable sensors and telemetry equipment. $500
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSllS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
B.
78-80
12
Establishment ofa National Health Insurance Act similar to Great Britain.
GROUP TOTAJ.S
EXPERT TOTALS
A.
11
3
Federal subsidy.
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
C.
75-77
28
ASSET
21
1--1---------1
6
4
-
1--1---------1
NECESSRY
31
ASSET
12
1--1---------1
5
3
~lEETJ
0
2
0
>10x0
0
1------1-----1
1-1-1
4
0
lax12
O.K.
33
1--------1-1
4
3
1-1--------1
USEF'UL SOUP. USE NO NEED >10x 4
2
3
4
1
37
10x+
1
0
100x+ 1000x+ >10aox+
0
1
0
0
0
0
one failure of more than one hour in a year.
Massive communication interface 10,000 channels.
r.ROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
4
O.K.
1----1-----1
USEFUl, 'SOME USE NO
0
2
0
10x10
/.
1
0
10x8
O.K.
31
1--------1-1
2
5
1--------1-1
III.156
10x+
0
0
10x+
2
0
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
0
0
a
0
0
0
100x+ 1000x+ 671000x+
0
0
0
0
0
0
~.j
preventive Medicine Diag:nostlc Centers -- The availability to 5 percent of the population of computerized
medical diagnostic centers. This application is similar to multi-phasic screening but not associated wit
a scheduled hospital admittance.
(
l~e4'X_4~Q_14kQg
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
faLL
PROFITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
NOT BE
VERY MODERT MARGINAL
VERY MODERT MARGINAL IMPLEMENTED
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MAJOR
GROUP TOTALS
18
EXPERT TOTALS
7
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
18
1
42
8
78-80
10
1
39
20
6
920
17
6
IMek~M~~X4!le~_4X~
81-85 LATER NEVER
3
1
0
18
31
14
370
o
75-77
1970-71 72-74
o
0
o
NO
1
LITTLE
SIGNIF.
38
1-1-1
9
10
1
3
1
1-1-1
4,,~~~a4rl~Q_d~~_H~X4~~I~~_~~'XQ~~
A.
Passage of a Nationalized Health Insurance Act similar to Great Britain.
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
B.
18
29
3
04
8
7
1
0
1
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74
24
11
24
4
2
1
0
0
4
2
75-77
18
5
16
ASSET
24
1-----------1-1
3
7
USEFUL SOUE USE NO NEED >10x-
81-85
LATER
4
1
11
6
2
2
4
1
1
8
3
1
1
1
If.
1--1---------1
NECESSRY
8
NEVER
3
1
2
LATER
5
NEVER
1
1
1
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x-
11
2
6
If.
6
4
1
2
1
1------1-----1
data base management system.
30
ASSET
13
1--1---------1
6
5
O.K.
31
1-1-1
5
10x+
3
0
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
0
0
0
0
0
0
1----1-----1
25
1--1---------1
1
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
ASSET
10x-
7
Mass storage of 100 billion bytes.
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
C.
Advanced
!i.
78-80
5
H:~UIH~Q_,~edfl~IXI~~
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
B.
81-85
Ten-fold increase in sensor technology.
NECESSRY
(
6
78-80
13
3
Federal subsidy.
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
A.
75-77
-17
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x-
10x14
O.K.
24
1--------1-1
3
6
1--------1-1
10x-
O.K.
10x+
0
0
10x+
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
0
0
0
0
0
0
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
413
2
1----------1-1
o
1
Development of application programs by a service having access to medical personnel trained in data
processing.
NECESSRI
CROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
ASSET
32
16
6
7
1--1---------1
1----------1-1
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x-
121
o
2
o
(
III.157
10x-
O.K.
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
d~Ll'4tlQI_al~Bl~XlQ!
vertically Integrated Health Care Delivery System -- The implementation in 20 percent of the metropolitan
areas of computer coordinated heartS care facilities. These would include physician's offices, neighborhood health centers, hospitals, university, medical Centers, nursing homes, rehabilitation centers, and
home health care. A patient is admitted to the system and moved through the facilities as his medical
problem progresses. Coordination of the use of the facilities is done by computer which tracks the patients
while they are in the system, recording and retaining their medic~l and administrative information.
i--"
ZM~4'l_4Ia_f4'UI
WILL
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
NOT BE
PROFITABLE 10 IMPLFMEN'l'OR
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
VERY MODER'l' MARGINAL
VERY MODERT MARGINAL IMPLEMF:NTF:D
IMPAC'l' ON SOCIETY
. MAJOR
GROUP TOTALS 14
EXPERT TOTALS 5
29
4
o
11
7
25
15
441
o
1
78-80
10
75-77
1970-71 72-74
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
NO
LITTLE
SIGNIF •
o
1
1
o
0
1
3
12
20
19
9
631
1
I.~fLI!1.ill4x.l.QrL~4Zr.
81-85 LATER NEVER
27
11
1
1-1-1
5
1
0
1--------1-1
4'QILla4lll~_4la_Blx.4Hal!Q_f4QlQH~
A.
Overcome of legal restrictions as to what constitutes proof of ownership.
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
A.
2
0
12
1
13
4
0
0
1
0
75-77 78-80 81-85
444
1
0
0
LATER
NEVER
'-
2
o
1
Network control.
NECESSRY ASSRT USRFUL BOMR USR NO NEED >10xGROUP TOTALS
30
12
2
1
1
CONSP.NSUS
1--1---------1
EXPERT TOTALS
1
1
o
5
3
CONSENSUS·
1------1-----1
B. Advanced data base management system.
10x-
O.K.
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
NECESSRI ASSET USEFUL SOME aSE NO NEED >10xCROUP TOTALS
33
10
1
0
1
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
o
o
EXPERT TOTALS
8
1
1
CONSENSUS
1--1-1
C. Mass storage of 100 billion bytes.
10x-
O.K.
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
13
ASSET
26
aSP-FUL SOME USE NO NEF:D >10x4
0
1
2
1
0
0
1
1----------1-1
3
6
1----------1-1
III-iS8
/
10x-
O.K.
14
23
3
1
1--------1-1
10x+
2
1
1-1---------------1
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
0
0
1
1
0
0
OFFICE ASSISTANCE
(
In the later 1970's the computer will move into the routine
operations of the business office. One percent of the secretaries
and typists will use a computer-assisted typing station. The
station will provide test editing, hyphenation and justification,
dictionary look up, etc. Completed typing could be electronically
filed or provided as direct input into electronic mail delivery
service which would be available in the same time frame between
businesses and other organization. The businessman or his
secretary would use a terminal for file retrievals and access
to operational information. The system might also provide
personalized information services such as appointment schedules,
tickler files, etc. In the 1980's home terminals coupled with
the above systems could make it possible for the businessman
to remain at home and still conduct most aspects of his business
using his terminal for access to his correspondence, files,
business data, etc., and for input of his directives, decisions,
memos~ letters, etc.
Most business meetings could be conducted
via the terminal, all others requiring on-site Presence would be
scheduled much as business trips are now.
(
I1I.159
'JFPICE ASSISTANCE
1970-71 72-74
APPLICATTON TITLE
COPUTERIZErJ TYPING STATIONS
1007550250P.C.
OFFICE ELECTRONIC UAIL SERVICE
I-f
H
I-f
I-'
0'1
o
78-;;0
0.0
1.7
15.5
I
NEVER
IMPACT PROFITABLE USEFUL
11ILL
ON
TO
TO
NOT BE
SOCIETY IMPLEUENTOR PUBLIC IMPLEMENTED
1. 43
2.78
2.41
0.33
2.84
3.40
3.56.
0.33
I
.--'
0.0
LATF:l?
~----'I
,-, --------1
'---~--...
53.4
,----J
0.0
81-fl5
.·~-l
.
~
1007550 250P.C.
75-77
3.2
22.4
1- 1- - - - - - - - J
55.6
36.5
3.4
3.4
&...1- - - - . - . . . , . - -
3.2
1.6
4ffMl"flQl_~I~'4lf%lal
COSiuterized TYping Stations -- The avai1abi1ity'to 1 percent of the secretaries and typists of'a computerass sted typing station •. The station would include text editing, hyphenization and justification, dictionary
look-up, and tie into an'E1ectronic Hail Service.
(
MAdOR
GROUP TOTALS
0
EXPERT TOTALS 0
SIGNIP.
LITTLE
16
13
1970-71 72-74
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
~f"f_4IQ_~
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
o
1
o
1
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
JlILL
PROFITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
NOT BB
VERI MODER '1' MARGINAL
VER!MODERT R~RGrNAL IMPLEMENTED
NO
~2
~
22
1
75-77
12
10
78-80
31
9
35
19
l'
10
24
15
20
1
8
'2
ll!fU.l!.IIX4UQI-a4U
LATER
81-85
13
1-1--------1
17
6
10
5
6
NEVER
2
2
0
1
1-1-1
4"I~IH4Xll~_4I~_B~r4BQl!a_l4'XQH~
A. Development of a practical dictionary look-up scheme.
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
7
24
13
~
12
8
0
0
8
5
75-77
13
6
78-80
,
8
4
81-85
3
1
LATER
NEVER
1
1
0
0
!lQQIH[Q_'4f~~lXll~
A. Mass data storage of 10 billion bytes.
.
NECESSRI ASSET USEFUL 80ME USE NO NEED >10xGROUP TOTALS
27
8
8
3
3
3
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
EXPERT TOTALS
~
12
5
2
2
2
CONSENSl/S
1--1---------1
B. Massive communication interface ~~O~li~~.
NECESSRI
(
IP TOTALS
-,SENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
28
ASSET
18
1--1---------1
13
9
1--1---------1
IISP-FUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x-
10x30
11
o
6
o
1-1--------1
10IC-
0
2
0
5
1
0
2
0
2
10~+
9
1-1-1
1
III.161
O.K.
O.K.
,-,-,
10x+
39
o
18
o
1-1-1
100IC+ 1000x+ >1000x+
0
0
0
o
o
o
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
0
0
0
o
o
o
:tt:k?:1:;;~<\ ~~~ ~~~Sl.~.J.\&l:t~:t l¢;;"~:lA
~~
' f . ..,
"",f"
•
~"~~I'»t~-fj~'~"1.*1.£4U2Ir;:il~IUll..tI~~t't"'f"\.l··,Jj,~";·':l· ~F'.~...,,~.;t'~ ~".~ih~...,eo~·f'!l"1'n:'fr"~""
Office Electronic Mal.1 service --~. availability of electronic _Uservice t.o organizations and ent.erprises. The service wouta provide tr~sn1 •• ion of ~st. mat.erials now ••nt. by first cliss mail •
• W~L4lf.1LI4lt.fl.6.
MAJOR
GROUP TOTALS
19
EXPERT TOTALS
4
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
LiTTLE
SIGNIF.
1
o
1
1970-71 72-74
o
0
o
NO
21
39
8
.
'.8
4
0
6
4
0
1
lMl~~~rlf.X4lle!_Q4Ii
78-BO . 81 .. 85 LATER· UVER
35
23
2
1
75-77
2
1-1-.. --... --·1
9
300
1-1--1
o
0
.
RBAS06SFOR IMP~EMENrArION
flILL
. NOT BE
PROFI~ABLE TO IMPLfMENTOR
USE1UL TO PUBLIC
VER~ IIODER'J;'MARGIJlAL
VERX HODER'J;' MARGINAL IMPLEMENTED
35
33
5
44
22·
6
9
.
IMPACT ON SOCIE'.lY
A.
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO F;FFECT 1970 .. 71 72-711GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
15
33
9
0
3
6
1
'. 0
8. FCC regulation allowing new _-way
switch~d
3
Q
13
4
27
3
5
1
78-80
17
4·.
6
cOllUftUft·icat,ion networks.
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
75-77
21
0
0
.8
1
75-77
11
3
78-80
13
2
81-8S . LATER
7
3
o
0
NEVER
81-85
NEVER
LATER
o
o
~
3
1
1
o
o
A. Mass storage trillion bytes.
NECESSRt
GROUP TOTALS
CONSE,NSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
B.
Netwo~k
13
ASSET
30
1--1-1
II4
1----------1-1
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x-
7
13
1
0
1
2
1
NrCESSRY
36
ASSET
15
1--1---------1
6
3
1--1---------1
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x4
O·
0
1
o
o
C. High reliability guaranteed 3 hour
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
31
ASSET
19
1--1---------1
4
4
1----------1-1
6
1
NECESSRY
~ONSENSUS
~
11-2
ASSET
13
1--1--1
7
3
1--1---------1
NECESSRY
1ROUP TOTALS
'ONSENSUS
'XPERT TOTALS
'OllSENSUS
.
39
ASSET
15
1--1---------1
5
5
1------1-----1
1.. 1- ,
4
O.K.
10x1
O.X.
10,,+
1
1
1001C+ 100011+ >1000"+
0
0
0
0
0
/
""""\
0
0
100 x + 1000x+ >1000,,+
deli~e~y.
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x-
3
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
USEFUL SOfiE USE NO NEED >10x-
1
0
0
0
0
0
. Inexpensive hard-copy transmission
33
10x-
0
Do' Positive user/terminal identification.
'lROUP TOTALS
-:0 NSENSUS
;:XPERT TOTALS
O.K.
1----..... --'-1
control with store and forward.
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
10x-
43
1-1-1 .
6
.\-1 -I
10x+
1
0
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
0
0
0
0
0
0
101C-
O.K.
10lC+
100x+ 1000,,+ >1000"+
10x-
O.K.
10"+
100x+ 1000"+ >10001C+
10x2
O.K.
10x+
2.
1001C+ 10001'+ >1000lf+
a
0
0
(facsimile. )
USEFUL SOUE USE NO NEED >10x1
0
0
0
0
0
Massive communication interface 100,000 lines •
;~';'
NECESSRY
ROUP TOTALS
')NSENSUS
lPERT TOTALS
?NSENSUS
35
ASSET
15
1--1---------1
5
~
1------1-----1
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x1
1
2
2
0
. Scramble transmission capability for
NECESSRY
10UP TOTALS
I NSF;NSUS
~PERT TOTALS
I NSENSUS
35
ASSET
16
1--1---------1
0
1
1
security •
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >101C!"
4
0
0
5
2
3
I------I-------~-----I
0
0
0
III.162
101C-
40
1-1-1
5
1-1-1
O.K.
1
10x+
0
0
0
1001C+ lOOO"+ >1000x+
~
PUBLIC AND PRIVATE TRANSIT
(
The importance of the problems of moving people in and about the
megalopolises of the future were recognized by the panel and
several applications were suggested to help combat the problems •
. By 1978 to 1980 today's traffic control applications will have
come into widespread use in 20 percent of the metropolitan areas
but with extended capabilities to control traffic with variable
traffic speeds and routings, and controlled access and egress
based on sensing traffic flows and volumes.
.
In 1981-85 five percent of the city mass transit systems will
be computer scheduled to respond dynamically to predicted or
sensed demands. Both of these applications ,dll be brought
about by public recognition of the need and subsequent Federal
subsidy.
American historic preference for individual transportation coupled
with increasing concern about traffic fatalities will in 1980-85
bring about the equipping of 20 percent of the automobiles with
computerized collision avoidance systems. These systems will.
detect collision courses, slow and, if necessary, stop the car
in time to prevent a collision with any object. At some point
after 1985 roadways will be automated to take over control of
vehicles while on the roadway.
III.163
PUP-LIC AND PRIVATE TRANSIT
flILL
PROFITABLE USEFUL
NOT BE
TO
TO
SOCIETY IMPLEMENTOR PUELICIMPLEMENTED
IMPACT
1970-71 72-74
APPLICATION TITLE
AUTOMATED TRAFFIC CONT'?OL
1007550 250P.C.
AUTOMATED MASS TRANSIT SYSTEMS
AUTOMOBILE COLLISION AVOIDANCE
SYSTEMS
75-77
1007550250P. c.
78-80
81-85
I
1-/--------/
0.0
0.0
5.1
57.6
32.2
5.1
0.0
0.0
23.2
67.9
l-'
'"...
3.84
0.29
3.17
2.79
3.87
0.38
3.15
1. 98
2.58
1.56
3.28
1. 74
2.56
1. 44
1.8
/--------/-1
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.1
40.6
I
40.6
15.6
10075-
so250-
P.C.
2.63
0.0
7.1
SO-
AlfTOf.!ATED ROADWAYS
2.85
I
10075-
P.C.
()N
/-/-1
0.0
250-
H
H
H
NEVER
LATER
/-1- /
1.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
19.7
68.2
I
10.6
Automated Mass Transit Systems -- Implementation by 5 percent of the metropolitan areas of computerized
mass transit systems. The system will be designed to eliminate congestion in the movement of people
and good by dynamically analyzing and balancing such factors as: location·of people and businesses, work
schedules, scheduled events, historic traffic patterns, ·weather, etc., and then optimally deploying the
transit facilities.
.
l~f4't_4!~-l4'Q'
WILL
REASONS POR IMPLEMENTATION
NOT ,BP.
USEPUL TO PUBLIC
PROPITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
VERY MODERT MARGINAL IMPLP.MENTED
VERY MODER'!' MARGINAL
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MAJOR
GROUP TOTALS 20
EXPERT TOTALS 6
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
A.
30
8
78-80
75-77
o
Federal regulation and subsidy.
38
1-1-1
2
21
6
~
~.
12
9
~
1
1
0
72-7~
0
0
~
1
3
2
75-77
78-80
11
2
1~
5
NECESSRY ASSET US!?FUL SOM? Y.';E NO NEED >10 11 29
2
GROUP TOTALS
15
1
0
1
CONSP.N8US
1--1---------1
EXPERT TOTALS
7
3
0
0
0
0
CONSP.NSUS
1--1.,.----,----1
C. Model development assistance from a service organization.
10118
12
ASSET
24
USF:FUL SOME liSE NO NEED
10
1--1---------1
~
2
1----------1---------1
3
8
2
81-85
7
LATER
NEVE.1?
1
2
o
o
o
H'QQLa'~_'4f4ll~lfl'~
10113
llECF:SSRY
5
2
b~tes.
lIECESSRY ASSET USEPUL SOME USE NO NEP.D >10110
29
14
3
1
0
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
0
0
7
0
0
3
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
B. One hundred times improvement in scheduling algorithms.
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
8
0
4''''EB4tI!~_41~_H'X4B~I!a_f4'tQ~
20
4
A. Mass data storage of 10 billion
~3
~
1-1-1
ABSOLUTE POSS:(BLE NO EPPECT 1970-71
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
10
l~f'l~'!X4tIQI_~4X'
81-85 LATER NEVER
13
o
0
27
5
17
5
0
0
10
1
1970-71 72-74
o
0
o
NO
LITTLE
SIGNIP.
1
2
0
1
III.165
>101l~
0
O.K.
1011+
10011+ 100011+ >100011+
38
3
0
0
0
7
1
o
o
o
1-1- r
1-1-1
1
1011-
O.K.
33
1-1-1
7
1-1-1
O.K.
1011+
1
o
1011+
10011+ 100011+ >100011+
0
0
0
o
o
o
10011+ 100011+ >100011+
dE~U~4fl.Q.fLlZl~'B.nu.Q.ll.
Automated Roadways -- The availability to the general pub1ic of the first computer controlled roadway·
for specially equipped au~omobiles. The automobile is under complete control of the roadway f~om entry
to exit but may be driven normally when off the roadway. The system would allow high speed, high
density traffic with maximum s,afetyyet retain the con'll'enienoe of individ:ual transportation.
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MAJOR
GROUP TOTALS
32
EXPERT TOTALS
3
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
NO
LIT'1!LE
7
SIGNIF.
33
3
21
2
o
o
75-77
0
1970-71 72-71l0
1
13
1
o
('
l.Ml!4'X_4!lll._Y.4Idl.~
WILL
RHASONS FOR IMPLEMENTAlI01l
NOT BE
PROFITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
VERY MODER!l' MARGI1IAL
VERY MODER'!! MARCI1IAL IMPLEMENTED
78-80
0
13
1
31l2
10
2
39
2
7
0
1.~~~lMlll.X4ll.Q.!-1l.Ifl
81-85 LATER
EVER
45
7
13
1-1-1
0
0
0
0
1
l
ll-
1-1-1
A.
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72·74
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
B.
Utilization
special
31
3
18
1
0
0
2
0
0
0
78-80
9
1
81-85
16
0
LATER.
75-77
6
1
78-80
12
1
91-85
10
0
LATER
NEVER
1
8
0
1
of electrical or electronical controls on automobiles to facilitate interfacing the
equi~ment.
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
75-77
10
2
A SOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74
30
2
16
0
1
0
3
1
1
0
NEVER
10
0
0
0
alQ~1.B.lQ_Q4E4~1.~l.Xl.l~
·A.
The special equipment for the automobile would have to be a computer for control and steering of
the automobile under direction of the roadway computer system.
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENOUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
B.
38
8
1--1---------1
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10)(-
2
0
10)(-
O.K.
101<+
1001<+ 1000)(+ >1000)(+
5
Very high reliability of the system with back up systems capable of being dynamically switched in
and either continuing control or bringing all traffic to a halt.
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
C.
ASSET
51
ASSET
2
1--1-1
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10)(-
10)(-
O.K.
101<+
100)(+ 1000)(+ >1000)(+
100
The capability to monitor in excess of 1 million sensors to follow the progress of all traffic.
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
36
ASSET
11
1--1---------1
USEPUL SOME USE NO NEE.1) >10)(1
2
3
Il-
10)(G
O.K.
30
1-1-1
10x+
7
100)(+ 10001<+
o
0
>100~)(+
0
(/
•
III.166
(
Automated Traffic Control -- Installation on the main throuqhfares of 20 percent of the metropolitan
areas of sophisticated traffic control systems. The system would sense traffic volumes and speeds,
set speed indicators and route destination indicators to optimize traffic flo_"'lAndn_~10X9
1
0
0
3
1
0
0
1-- J-I
7
\--\---------,1
NJ?CESSRY
29
ASSP.T
USlI:PUL SOHlI: USTS NO NEED >10x-
15
3
1
1
4
3
2
1
0
2
\--1---------1
6
2
O.K.
37
1-1-1
7
1-1-1
101(+
2
1
1001(+ 10001(+ >10001(+
0
0
0
0
0
0
results of control actions taken.
NP.CP.SSRY ASSET USEPUL SOME USE NO NEED >10xGROUP TOTALS
28
8
12
o
2
CONSENSUS
1--1-----------------1
EXPERT TOTALS
6
3
2
o
2
CONSENSUS
1----------\---------1
C. Capability to monitor 100,000 sensors.
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPJ?RT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
10x2
1------1------1
10x-
O.K.
10x14
O.K.
23
1--------1-1
5
5
\-1--------1
III .167
1001(+ 10001(+ >1000x+
101(+
1
0
1001(+ 10001(+ >1000x+
0
0
0
0
0
0
dff~I'dXLQl_~'£'BlfXLQ!
teds -- The equipping of 20% of the automobiles with radar like sensing
~~m2~~~~~~~~~~~~F11i;t~slow, then bring to a halt the automobile when a collision course
..
IMf4'X_4~Q_14~QE
REASONS FOR IMPLEMEN1ATION
WILL
PROFITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
NOT BE
VERY MODERT MARGINAL
VERY MODERT MARGINAL IMPLEMENTE!)
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MAJOR
GROUP TOTALS
3~
EXPERT T01ALS
5
LI1nE
SIGNIF.
24
6
1970-71 72-74
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CO liS ENS US
NO
2
13
1
21
14
13
124
o
75-77
o
0
o
o
0
o
78-80
2
33
14
2
450
42
5
..
IUfuE~I!X4XIQ!-~4XE
81-85 LATER NEYER
26
26
10
1
1--------1-1
2
6
2
1--------1-1
, A.
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
B.
3
1
0
0
0
0
75-77
9
1
70-80
4
0
81-85
16
4
LATER
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74
5
36
5
0
3
2
6
0
0
0
75-77
8
2
70-80
81-B5
6
LATER
NEVER
5
2
10
1
9
1
11
2
NEVER
3
1
1
BE~Q!H~~'4f4~I~IXIE~
Fail safe design of computer system.
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
B.
19
3
Installation of computers in cars for other purposes, such as performance and maintenance mon1tor1ng.
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
A.
26
5
36
ASSET
13
1--1---------1
5
4
1------1-----1
USEFUL
som;;
.
USE NO NEED >10lC-
1
0
3
0
0
1
Inexpensive computer and wide angle sensing devices $1£000
NECESSRY
7ROUP TOTALS
-:ONSENSUS
?XPERT TOTALS
~ONSENSUS
42
1--1-1
9
1--1- I
ASSET
10
1
USEPUL SOME USE NO NEED >10,,0
1
o
3
0
0
o
0
10lC-
O.K.
10lC+
100"+ 1000lC+ >1000lC+
10lC+
0
100lC+ 1000lC+ >1000lC+
000
~urchase.
10lC26
O.K.
22
1-1--------1
6
3
1-1--------1
0
o
o
o
Sophisticated program to discriminate between dangerous and normal situations (i.e., overtaking and
passing involve collision courses.)
'ROUP TOTALS
'ONSENSUS
XPERT TOTALS
ONSENSUS
NEeESORY
46
r- -1-1
8
1--1-1
ASSET
2
1
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10lC0
0
2
0
0
0
III.168
10lC-
O.K.
10,,+
100>1000lC+
UTILITIES
(
Utilities are relatively highly automated--most new power plants
are process controlled, as are power distribution networks and
gas lines. There are, however, new areas for the application of
computers in the utility industries.
Most utilities have only a limited picture of their load profiles
as they appear at major distribution points (central offices,
power stations, etc.) What is missing is the load profiles over
time for individual users or users in a limited area. By 1980
ten percent of the utilities will have installed remote data recorders to record such profiles. These profiles will be used
to better predict changing service needs.
In the same time frame the existing systems of regional power
grids will be joined into a nationwide grid. The grid will be
computer controlled to prevent power failures by drawing on power
reserves allover the nation to absorb the loss of one or more
plants.
The advent of widespread use of the picturephone in 1975-85 will
lead to computerized services being made available using the
picturephone as a terminal. The telephone companies will lead
the way. In 1980 twenty percent of the metropolitan areas will
be serviced by automated telephone directory and yellow page
data banks. Inquiries would be handled automatically from the
picturephone.
111.169
UTILITIES
APPLICATION TITLE
UTILITY USAGE RECORDING SYSTEll
NATION-WIDE POWER GRID
TELEPHONE DIRECTORY AND YELLOf.'
PAGE DATA BANKS
I-f
I-f
I-f
l-'
.....
o
1970-71 72-74
1007550250P.C.
1007550250P.C.
1007550 250'P.C.
75-77
78-80
81-85
LATE'?
NEVER
IMPACT PROPITABLE USEFUL
PILL
ON
TO
NOT "RE
TO
SOCIETY IMPLEMENTOR PUBLIC IMPLEMENTED
1. 68
3.00
2.66
0.36
2.75
3.27
3.42
0.44
2.00
2.62
2.80
-0.29
I-I -I
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.8
0.0
0.0
3.6
1.7
4.6
74.5
1-1--1
73.3
16.4
·23.3
1-1--------1
58.5
23.1
1.8
1.7
12.3
1.8
0.0
1.5
4EELI.'dlI.Q!l_12£~kB.l.fXI.Q!l
Nationwide Power Grid -- The establishment of a nationwide power grid to balance power loads. The system
would predict loads on the ba~ds of .historical records and weather forecasts. Power plant usage would be
scheduled giving major considerat~to utilization of plants in weather locations most favorable for
pollution avoidance.
I.MEd'X_d!l12_Ed~~£
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
W.TLL
PROFITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL TO PUBLIC.
NOT BE
VERY
MODERT MARGINAL
VERY MODERT MARGINAL IMPLEMENTED
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MAJOR
GROUP TOTALS
15
EXPERT TOTALS
5
SIGNIF.
o
16
5
6
1
75-77
1970-71 72-74
o
0
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
NO
LITTLE
44
17
78-80
44
1
0
34
12
5
2
41
17
23
7
3
1
12
4
I(U~It£MEllXdXl.Q.!L12dXE
81-85· LATER NEVER
14
1
0
1-1--1
20
1
30
11
5
1
0
1-1-1
dQ'~L:HdXI.!la_dll~_HErdH21!la_EdQXQH~
A.
Nationalization of the power industry.
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74
75-77
3
1
78-80
9
4
81-85
4
2
LATER
ABSOLUTE POSSIRLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74
GROUP TOTALS
26
22
4
13
0
EXPERT TOTALS
13
6
3
0
6
C.
Legislation enforcing pollution control.
75-77
19
8
78-80
4
1
81-85
1
1
LATER
ABSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFECT 1970-71 72-74
75-77
15
78-80
81-85
LATER
22
10
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
B.
Several (4)
A.
9
3
0
0
0
0
NEVER
17
7
8
5
major black-outs.
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
(
17
9
11
27
10
2
17
7
8
7
2
6
2
1
.4
5
2
NEVER
4
1
1
1
NEVER
o
0
0
o
Better scheduling algorithms.
NECESSRY
ASSET
GROUP TOTALS
31
13
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
EXPERT TOTALS
15
3
CONSENSUS
1--1---------1
B.
Mass storage of 100
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >101<-
6
0
0
5
0
0
101<-
O.K.
10x+
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
10x4
O.K.
10x+
0
1001<+ 1·000x+ >1000x+
0
0
0
billion bytes.
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
C.
Development
10
6
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x-
35
1
1
1
0
15
1
0
1
0
1--1-1
1----------1-1
2
36
1-1-1
17
0
1-1-1
0
0
0
of a nationwide power distribution model.
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
ASSET
ASSET
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >101<-
43
4
0
0
1
20
1
0
0
1
1--1-1
1--1-1
III.l7l
10x-
O.K.
10x+
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
4~~LlQdXlQ~_Q~g,al~XlQl
Telephone Directog and Yellow pa,eData Banks -- 'the availability in 20 pecrcent of the metropolitan
areas of data ban s suppietnertting tHe i!xis€Ing telephone direct.oJ'ias. The system would use conventional.
or picture phones .artd 14%:98lY replace 1nforBlat1on operato~~
lM~A'X_~Ha_!4LU~
REASONS FOR IMPLEMENTATION
WILL
PROFITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
NOT BE
. VERY
MODER'!
M,4R GINA L
VERY
MonERT MARGINAL .rMP LEMEN TED
19
33
21
26
27
19
8
9
12
9
9
10
10
1
IMPACT ON SOC.rETY
MAJOR
7
GROUP TOTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
2
SIGNIF.
LITTLE
30
.11
39
16
1970-71
(;ROUP TOTALS
rONSENSUS
PXPERT TOTALS
rONSENSUS
o
o
NO
~
2
75-77
3
72-7~
(}
78-80
38
1-1--------1
19
7
1-1--------1
1
0
l~~L~~E~XAXrQ!_~4X'
81-05
LATPR NEVER
15
8
1
2
0
d~'EL~Rd:;:r.N.{L.1rllLB.E.XAlI12l!!.rL£:4~XQ.lIg
A.
Installation of picture phones in 20 percent of the metropolitan
ARSOLUTE POSSIBLE NO EFFRCT 1970-71 72-7~
GROUP TOTALS
RXPRRT TOTALS
17
33
16
7
12
5
0
0
1
0
75-77
26
15
~unities.
78-80
20
8
81-85
7
LATER
NEVER
o
o
1
1
2
f1~fl.y.l.B.~!2_r~:;l1!1.l.·HlJ.~g
A.
Voice recognition system capable of recognizing letters and numbers and simple words
by 99 percent of the population.
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTltLS
CONSENSUS
F.XPRRT TOTALS
CON8ENSUS
B.
16
3
3
1
2
10x-
O.K.
10x+
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x,!-
10"'!0
100x+ 1000x,!- >1000x,!'l
0
0
1--1-.-------1
1~
3
7
NECESSRY
35
ASr:ET
16
1--1---------1
16
'l
1--1---------1
USEFUL SOME USE NO NRr.n >10x4
2
0
0
1
0
0
10x1
0
Alphabetic input terminal incorporated in the telephone.
NF,rES~p.y
(;l?OUP TOTALS
r:ONSENSU.']
EY.PERT TOPAW
CONSENSUS
TJ.
W,EFUL SO~fE USE NO NEED >10x-
2~
spoken
1--1---------1
Audio response capable of handling 1,000 voice responses simultaneously.
GROlJP TOTALS
rONSRNSU.')
EXPERT TOTAJ,S
N)NSENSlJS
r..
ASSET
12
~s
ASSET
1'3
USEFUL S()I.fE US'F: !T(J !1F!F:.T'J >10x-
31
1----------1-1
g
7
1----------1-1
e
I)
0
5
0
0
O.K.
46
1-1-1
21
I -1- I
I)
0
0
0
10x-
O.y..
10x,!-
100,,'!- 1000x+ >1000x+
lli,,-
n.F.
32
17
10x+
0
100x,!- 1000x+ >1000x,!0
0
0
Data base of 100 billion bytes.
llECESfJ1?Y
ASr:ET
USEFUL
GROUP TOTAL:;
13
23
17
CONSENSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
4
13
8
CONSENSlIS
E.
Search engine 100 times faster
1--1---------1
1-- I --------- I
SO!~E
USE NO
mnm
>10x-
3
1
5
2
0
0
1-1--------1
12
12
0
0
0
0
I----I~----I
than today's systems.
NECE:J:JRY
(;ROUP TOTALS
r:ONSENSUS
RXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
"'
ASfJF.T
10
4
27
USEFUL :::O,'IE USE NO NEED >10)(11
3
4
2
1--1---------1
12
5
1--1---------1
2
1
1
10x7
4
Update able image files.
NECE8SRY
GROUP TOTALS
COfl:JENSUS
RXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
10
4
ASSf-T
22
USEPUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x6
9
7
1--1-----------------1
10
3
5
1--1-----------------1
3
III. 172
1.0x ..
O.K.
36
I - I-I
15
1- I-I
O.K.
10x+
2
1
10x+
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
0
0
0
0
0
0
100x,!- 1000x+ >1000)('!-
i
/
~j
4ff~'4lLal~l~tlal
(
Utility Usage Recording; System -- The installation in 10 perc.ent of the utilities (gas, electric and
telephone) of a system of remote data recorders to record service profiles over time. The system would
make it possible for utilities to determine the distribution of their loads by time and location. The
recorders need not be on-line to the central faoility but would be accessed periodically to pick up
the accumulated readings.
llf4't_41~_E4~1
IMPACT ON SOCIETY
MAJOR
GROUP ~OTALS
EXPERT TOTALS
5
2
NO
LITTLE
SIGNIF.
17
4
5
32
14
5
REASONS. FOR IMPLEMENTA~ION
PROFITABLE TO IMPLEMENTOR
USEFUL TO PUBLIC
VERY MODERT MARGINAL
VERY MODERT MARGINAL
o
9
27
11
11
0
17
4
19
9
WILL
NOT BE
IMPLEMEN~ED
7
15
1
2
lME~I~llf4fIQ4_~fl
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
EXPERT ~OTALS
CONSENSUS
A.
o
.
o
78-80
41
75-77
1970-71 72-74
1
2
1-1-1
o
0
81-85
14
LATER
NEVER
9
1
1
2
0
0
1-1-1
BlgarH~_'4f4~~LfLle
Mass data storage of 100 billion bytes.
NECESSRY ASSET USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED >10x2
2
29
2
0'
14
GROUP TOTALS
CONSENSUS
1----------1-1
1
0
1
1
8
3
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
1--1-1
B. Inexpensive reliable Gollection devices. $100 purchase.
NECESSRY
GROUP TOTALS
CONSP.NSUS
EXPERT TOTALS
CONSENSUS
37
1--1-1
9
ASSET
USEFUL SOME USE NO NEED>10x-
lOx-
9
1--------1-1
1
10x-
1
0
1
0
1
3
1
o
1
o
o
III.173
9
1-1-1
B
1--1---------1
O.K.
31
O.K.
39
1-1-1
9
1-1-1
10x+
o
o
10x+
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
000
o
o
o
100x+ 1000x+ >1000x+
2
o
0
0
1
o
o
o
IBM CONFIDENTIAL
(
IV. DETAILED CAPABILITIES RESULTS
The panel of respondents was asked to associate with each
of the applications those data processing capabilities
which were critical to the implementation of the application.
In this section, the detailed data relating to the capabilities
is presented and discussions are provided identifying trends
and conclusions.
The study organization has produced four indications of
relative importance of the capabilities. These are:
1.
The number of applications requiring a capability.
This count is indicative of the breadth of the need
for the capability.
2.
The importance of the associated applications.
Respondents were asked to rank the applications as
to their importance to the general public, to the
implementors, and to the ultimate users.
Capabilities
required by the more important applications are more
important themselves.
3.
The date the application is required.
Capabilities associated with early implementation dates
deserve immediate attention.
4.
The value of the capability to the application.
Respondents were lead to a consensus as to whether a
capability was a "Necessity", a "Definite Asset",
"Useful", "Some Use", or "No Use" to the application.
The relative importance of the four ranking factors is a SUbjective
judgment. This report will present data on all four measures
and leave it to the reader to forr:l his mm ultinate ranking based
on his T,'leighings of the categories, the actual applications
involved, and any other pertinent factors available to him.
IV.l
IBH CON'PIDE:ITIl'l.I..
The remainder of this section in divided into eight s~)sections by
grouping the ic1entifiedcapahilities into convenient areas:
"- /
Conmunications Requirements
Terminal Capabilities
Data Base Requirements
Capaci ty and Availability
Advanced Capabilities
.
l\.pplication Soft'\'Jare Requirements
Data Processing Services
Special Productn
Each subsection will start with a discussion of the capabilities,
and vlhere merited, possible trends and conclusions. Follmling the
discussion are blO sets of detailed presentations upon i.vhich the
discussion is based. The first detailed presentation nanes the
capabilities and lists the applications requiring each capability.
The applications are cross-referenced by page number to the detailed
printouts contained in Section III.
The second presentation contains data relating to the value of the
capability. Figure 4.1 is a sample page from these presentations.
Part 1 is the capabi Ii ty name. Part 2 presents the average of tiLe
values assigned to the applications requiring the capability. The
derivation of these values is described in detail on pages III 2 and
III 3. Briefly, they resulted from applying weights from 1 to 5
to the respondent's judgments of the applications effect on society,
the implementors, and the public.
"l-lill Ilot be Implemented" had a
weight of 3. Thus, the maximum possible values would be 5, 5, 5, and
3 respectively.
Part 3 is a count of the num->:>er of applications
specifying the requirement for this capability. Part 4 provides
histograms illustrating the distribution of capability values over
time.
For example, 20.7 percent of the respondents judged the capability
to be "Necessary." The 20.7 percent were distributed: 11.7 percent
in 1978-80~ 7.2 percent in 1981-85~.9 percent in LATER~ and .9
percent in ImVER. The TOTAL category savs that 98.2 percent of the
respondents thought the capability had some value vIi th 59.5 percent
concentrated in 1978-80. FrOM this part, it is possible to tell
when and how strongly a capability is needed.
Capabili ties VJhich have magnitudes associated with them are treated
by providing a separate page for each of the orders of magnitude
requested. For example, Figure 4.1 is one of four "Search Engine"
pages Le., Search Engine 10,000 times more powerful, 1,000 times,
100 times and 10 tines. This makes it possible to relate the specific
magnitUde to time.
IV.2
"
(l)
SEARCH EtJGINE -
10,000 TIMES MORC: Po\/ERFUL
PROFITADLE USEFUL
WILL
II'!PACT
TO
TO
NOT
BE
ON
SOCIETY IMPLEt1ErnOR ,PUBLIC. H1PLE1'1EfJTE[?
2.62
2.05
@
2.52
0.29
NU~mER. OF R.EQUIRING APPLICATIONS - 2
@ ;~ECESSAR.Y
TOTAL
100-;
75-;
50-.
25-~' ••••••
O -~,
~
1970-71 72-74
75-77
78-80
81-85
0.0
%
20.7
100-:
0.0
0.0
11.7
!II ____:w:t:.-r......., .... '!Jr~
.P..__
.~.:-=-f:S
o. :)
'( .2
75-:
50-:1······1
,
1...... 1. . . . • . I
2~-~
~
O-t
•• •• •• • • • • •• •• • • • • ••
~
. . .,:..--=-r~~_ _ _ _ .'!II
iiIIr.wr...,.~..,...
53.2
90
USEFUL
r lEVER.
J•••••••••••••••••••• 1······,·,·····, ............. .
r.
.. _, ...~.~_.::&: .....~.·.'~:tIIr.'a.~ __.tI~y" ... L-~......-.:
25-:
0- ~. . · • • • · " • • • · • • • · • · • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
(
0.0
0.0
0.0
IV.12
o.G
o.C
C) •
G
0.0
I
f
!
I
I!
HASSIVE SEiJSOR
r~ETi'/ORK
pr~OF
IT AO LE USEFUL
\1 ILL
TO
lJOT [JE
TO
SOCIETY HlP LEt1Ef Heir- PUOLIC It1PLEl1EtJTED
F1P/\CT
OIl
2.51
iWiiuEf: OF r!E;'~UIRHJG APPLI CATIONS -
ASSET
0.::>
)3.2
%
D[FI;lIT~::
100-"
0.66
2.78
2. GIJ
It
2.6
0.0
17.3
1.0
7 1'":,J-.~
50-:
')t:-_"I······I
l.J
l.i
0- ~l.r.
W(.,"*" ........- - . . . .
,
• • • • • • • • • • • •a:ca;
• •. .•. •. .•. .•:.:0,..,•....•·•__
'IC.:8;:_~"!IC' •
.,.
..
•••••••••••••
It...~-IJiI.·."•• ·.~.-..ar..
33.7
0.0
0.0
1.0
12.8
4.1
0.0
0.0
0.::>
2.0
1
•••• ••, •••••••
... '_.:-.r~'..-:""::::.H'.,...._._ ..... ·...~,..s·.: __ .." ..
11. (i
0.0
0.5
o.:!
USEFUL
~,
'u
SUi[:: USE
100-r
1.0
~
~-i.
1"7 r-
I
50-~
25-:
o-~II.",...:a.;.-..'
· · · ·:..· · · · · • · · · • • · · · · · · • • • • • ·..·,· ___
· •,___
· • · · • ... · · · · · · · · · · • · • · · · · · · ·
.:a .......
1.5
TOTAL
100-:
75-:
:,>0- ~
i$:.~I11·
1...... 1
. . ;_.":IIR·;.... \II',:I._"·1Il"
0.0
,_~_"·
S
USE
"JIll' !ihl.I"-: ... ·.~._41.·a _ _ · ....
O.S
0.5
_ ....;r... ~~.
0" .;;r:
.
•••••••••••••••••••
: .... fI'
;m
0.0
0.0
0.0
"')[-_i
L~
~
0- .\\
l ...·,·~~ 'E
. . .,_:!'QIII,_~~·
r: ..·.~_ .... ........
97.4
,~-.I1'11'·:,.r ~
0.5
.1
• • • • • • • ••• • • -.
••••••
.... '!Itt.• . .,.,...,-;. .~'1,r.'lW.1K ... ~.'2'; '.:....-,"tt. . . . . . . . . . ;jIF·,'........ ::.r,. .·..... ·os. . -..:-...
0.0
4.1
37.2
34.2
I ...... .
.!I;t::a-
is":.:.r
19.9
:lit
:;:r.;._.,
lr·"'.'~"·"
1.5
100-"9
75-.
50-:
25-; ,
0- ~ , • • • • • •
•...
t..n~:'t:.:.r-
I •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••
..............·_=-~_
......
0.0
~-...-:.."If
....2":
. . . .,1J:
0.0
'a
IL"''':.1t. .:l'flJ.'
0.0
IV.13
I:~·
i:It""l'iIt'!lf"IIl=·"t:. . •7l1'~T.".;;.
0.5
llt2 .1·
r>··.·..
·"t·;.:ll'·I. . . .,;;ttI":_!lli ...~ . . . . . . . .
1.0
~IETW()R
K CONTROL
It1PACT
PROFITABLE
USEFUL
ON
TO
TO
:,OCIETY I t~ PL En ENTnR PUBL Ie
(
2.52
2.54
H1PLE~'EtJTErl
2.71
NUt1DER OF REQUIRIIJG APPLICATIONS TOTAL
HILL
NOT BE
0.58
29
1970-71 72-7 l1 75-77
78-80
81-85
NEVER
LATER
NECESSARY 100-:
~6=~1······1
25-~
o-~
............•••••••• 1······,······, . ..... , •.••.••
J.•.--.~._
70.5
9.,
DEFItHTE
ASSET
100-"
• •
0.0
--"4.
0.2
31.0
__
23.3
e.4
1.6
75-"
50-~
25-~,
0- r.
•••••• ,
-.-
........-....-
20.5
0,
'0
100-~
--2.7
• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •• • • • • • , • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
~
USEFUL
==._.
0.0
0.0
8.0
2.7
.
0.3
7 13-:
50-~
25-~
0-:r!.____
I • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • "• • • • • •
0,
SOHE USE
'"
100-~
5.A
_
____
0.0
0.0
0.6
2.4
0.8
0.1
75-~
50-~
25-::
0- [ • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •.u.,.===
• • ____________________
• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • ..
• •____
• • •..• ____
• • • •______
• • • •..
• • •....•
0,
'q
1.2
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.3
0.5
•
TOTAL
••*ria _______
._
._
. _ _" ._
._
.
,~
___
~
.1i~=~I······1
. .
l)0-~
2 5-~
•
0-·,'aa
0,
'')
NO USE
100-~
•••••••
1* .. · .. I • •• • • .,
.~
• ••••• I
• • • •__
• •• •• ••••
98.0
0.0
~
••• ••••
41.8
0.2
32.5
11.9
2.3
75-ti
50-~
25-:;;
0- LB.••
• •_• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •__
• • • • • • • • • • •__
• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •_• • • • • • • •..•
2.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
IV.14
0.2
0.7
0.5
0.3
TWO HAY, HIGH CAPACITY, DATA CHANNELS
H1PACT
PROFITABLE USEFUL
HILL
TO
TO
NOT BE
SOCIETY I t1 PL Et1 ENTOR PUBLIC H1PLEt 1 ENTEO
ON
2.55
2.36
2.73
Nut1l3ER OF REQUIRING APPLICATIONS NECESSARY
100-'
TOTAL
~-~1······1
IroI
2r.:-~
-J "
0_"
~
100-~
75-t
50-r
25- fi
0- ~t:
l······1
t___
0,
'()
USEFUL
100-~
---. - - -
0.0
0.0
•••••••••••••••••••• I • • • • • •
~z_
27.6
78-80
81-85
.................... , ...... 1
0.0
96
75-77
•••••
••r _ _ _ _ - . _ ......._ _
DEFINITE
ASSFT
5
1970-71 72-7 11
7
~O-~
.,.,
0.75
_._
_I'
••••••
110.1
--
14.3
1.1
I . •. •. ••••••••I
15. il
3.3
I ...... .
a-
...... ....-,.....
0.0
0.0
LATER
•••••••
_ .___
0.7
75-~
50-~
25-[
.
O_~il······I
.._E_E__EEeII___ •
~
11. a
0,
'Il
501H: USE
...........................
I······
•......... ____
...__.
....____________ ....___
... ____.........................
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _E_.~
0.0
0.0
.,~
0.0
2.6
0.0
~
~
1.5
0.0
100-"
75-~
-r:)0-~..
25-[
a___
..
0- ~ ..•_ • • • • • •*"-_.
• •• •• •• •• •• ••••• ••••• • ••• •• •••• •••• •••• •• •• • ••• •••
~
O.
0.7
"J
TOTAL
£
100-~1······1
75-~
r:O-q
J
I,
25-~
A- "l.
~
0,
',)
NO USE
100-~
0.0
_____
0.0
....
0.0
95.2
0.0
0.0
1...... 1
······1 ...... .
....................t • • • • • •
•
~
E
0.0
0.0
ow
0.4
11.0
_ _c
58.1
23.()
1.8
"r5-f
50~~
25-~
•....••..........••........•
•••·•• •..............
______
_=.• _=.=_.=
__ .......
__
0.0
1.1
2.0
0.0
0.0
0.7
O-~I······I
P...........
0,
'')
IV.15
'\
/
I
1I3'1 C0rJP I DE:JTIl\L
rrl~PJ'HIJl\L
CAPJ. . UILITI1:S
1\.ssociated ~.vi th the widespread use of data communications wi 11
be a multitude of terminals. Hany of these terminals \vi 11 be
special purpose or \vill have special features required to accomplir;h
specific applications. 'The respondents identified a number of
these requirements.
For example, two types of terminals were specified to automate
airline passenger services. The first would he designed to provide
fare and schedule quotations, make reservations, and sell tickets
and is capable of being operated by the general puhlic. The second
terminal would aid in automating passenger check-in and boarding
control. It Hould read and accept previously purchased tickets
and control access to the airplane. The terMinals Here judgcd to
be "~ecessary" by 1975-77 when at least one airline will have automated its passenger services.
The advent of store level retail systeM;'; ,!ill creat0. a denand for
point-ai-sale terninals starting in 1975-77 and peaJ~ing in 11) 78- 00.
From these terminals, purchases \ l i 11 be recorded and perhaps priced,
credi t checks \:Jill be made, and eventuallv paynent via the Checkles3/
Cashless Society may be initiated. To accomplish this, the terminals
,Jill require a method for reading price tags and/or package labels.
There nay also be input from scales such as might be used in weighing
produce. A positive method of identification will be required if
the terminal is to also be the paynent vehicle. Initially, present
visual verification of signatures and/or photographs may suffice;
but ultimately, the systen via the terminal must be capable of
making the identification. The respondents have suggested voice
prints, fingerprints, and even retina prints as a means of identification.
For air traffic control the respondents suggested that it would be
a "Defini to }\.sset" to have a three-dimensional display capability
\·lith ,,,hich the system could interact, available by 1978-80.
There is a clear need for Computer Assisted Instruction (CAl)
not only in the academic environMent but also for industrial,
business and military training and even for home education. To
accomplish this in the 1978-30 time period, a special CAl terminal
ViaS rated as either "llecessary" or as a "Definite Asset" by 90
percent of the respondents. Such a terminal '...,ould have the ability
to display printed, graphical and pictorial (television-like) data'
and to provide optional audio output. Interaction would be via
functional and/or typet;
hO-~IIoi
')5-"
r
'- 0- ;
•• _ _
.~_
0.0
0.0
0.0
I······.
•••••• •••••••
~---=-....--~_..
% 100.0
100-~
75-~
50-~=
0.0
. . .·.........
~\
0.0
•••• •
0.0
"....-.,'.r ___"__.....
0.0
~~
........
0.0
a,
•••••••••••
-._. ___•=••••=••.••I • • •............
__
. . .-....
t. . . . . . .
flO USE
• • Wi
__~
,-~
0.0
55.8
38.5
5.8
~~
0.0
"II
0.0
25-;
O-~.......
• •_•...
• • • • • • • •. .• • • •......
• •_____
• • • • • • • •__.w
• • • • • • • •_=
• •_
• •_
• •_
• • • • • • • • • • • • • •_liUUUR"II
••••
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
ff
_",_~.....-
.S .,.,. . . .
..".~
(
IV.20
.......
_.~.,..,...,
AIRLINE TICKET TERtUNAL
I t--1PACT
PROFITABLE USEFUL
HILL
~lOT OE
TO
TO
SOCIETY IrtPLEHENTOR PUBLI C H1PLEt1ENTED
on
1.58
2.98
0.14
2.97
NUtlBER OF REC1UIRING APPLICATIONS - 1
11ECESSAP.Y 100-:
TOTAL
1970-71 72-74
~~=!I······I
72.)
%
DEFINITE
ASSET
USEfUL
· · · · · • • · · · · · ·__
..·...~~_t~._-........-~
1_·.~·~.~
78-80
J...... ,
2 5-~
0-;•
75-77
0.0
t ..
81-[l5
• • • • • .,
LATEr.
· ·. · · · · · ·....
·······.·····
_~' _ _ _ 1iI1t"e.·_.·_1Ir..~_ ..,...,.r.:o«",....~
0.0
tJEVEr
23.5
iIft',~.JL~
. .~.,_,...." ..
0.0
2.0
0.0
100-,
75-:
50-~
25-1:
0-;
r··· . ·1
•••••••••••• •I
25.5
100-:
0.0
0.0
• • • • • • I • • • • • •
I.....................
15.7
9.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
75-~
50-~
"\
25-~
o-~ · • · · · · · · · • · · • · · · · · · · · • · · · • · · · • · · · · · • · • • • · · • • • • · • · · · · · · · · ·
g6
2.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.0
0.0
0.0
,,_.......:.·.........· _ _
S(X1E
USE
"~
__
~.-:_·
_ _.•
It·!.,...,_~I
.......
.,~
......
____
_.':!Ift~~~,_.
.".t.::'WIr~'_,'~'·
......
:w..~·_""It'~,.
100-,
75-:
50-:
25-;
•
O-Li' • •_
• •_• _
• •......
• •.•. • •: _
• •.......
• •_•_• • • _ •AI•-,-_",.-,:&4111*_
• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •___
• • • • • • • • •........
• • • • •..•_'"
•
~
0.0
%
TOTAL
.~"'
1~~:~1······1
50-'
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0-.·
·············
...._ _..a....w.aiJl..-n. . . . ....-::._
c.
100.0
'0
NO USE
•••
0.0
0.0
~
0.0
0.0
0.0
.
, •••••••
e · · • • · -I
25-~
""";:"'11~
.......... PJ •
56.9
······,··············
.:Q:T1II.-'..... - . . . -
_
• . . . . -_ _
~,
. . . . . . . .: . . . .
0.0
39.2
~
..
~
0.0
100-;
75-;
50-~
0-,······································.·················.·
25-i
.
-....__
%
0.0
_
0.0
. •_
0.0
-..r. . __:.
~
0.0
IV.21
___
0.0
*"'"....
It_ _
0.0
&.~~
_ _ _ _ _ _. &
0.0
• • , - - - ...
0.0
CATV TERMINAL
H1PACT
(
PROFITABLE
TO
ON
SOCIETY I ~1PLEHENTOR
2.47
2.50
\-JILL
USEFUL
tlOT BE
TO
PUBLI C I t-1PLEt1E~lTED
iJUHBER OF REQU I RING APPL I CAT IONS TOTAL
~lECESSAR.Y
1
1970-71 72-74
~~=~
I. ·····1
50-t
25-~
..
~
,,,,-,-,,-,~,,~,--,,-~;,,,,,,,_.,,
DEFINITE
ASSET
5
75-77
78-80
• • • • • • • ••• • • • • • • • • • • I
0--:
78.0
~.
'.)
0.69
2.70
0.0
0.0
• • • •• •
Sl-nS
~IE'IEP
LATER
1······1 ••••••
I •••••••
-....r..-.;......~~............... ...,~~..-.._,' ...~ ....~~.
1.1
0.3
100-,
75-:
50-~
.* ·.···
J
O--~..........:....'__-= .............
• • • • • •-.--__
• • • ••••••
• • • "• • •....
• •___•...• • • • • • • • , • • • • • • • • • • • • • , • • • • • • •
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
10.6
2.3
3.0
25-:
:l1. . . . . .~._ ...~~ .•,.,. . . . . .~_;, ....... ,....... _= ••. ~.......... . . .
JSEFUL
100-i
75-i
50-t
25-~
O-~,······,
•
..... ·· .. · .. ···· .........................•. ......
_ _ _ _ _._
. _
• _ _ _ _ _._
. ___
d ___
~~~._.
~.)
smlE USE
100-~
3.0
0.0
0.0
0.4
~
...
_ _ _..._. .
d. . . . .____. . .
...,._~_.
~_
0.0
0.8
0.0
75-~
50-,
.
25-~
0-.r-._Wl_
· · · · ·.........
· · · ··.........
· · · ··-.._
· · · · · · · · · · · · · · ·__·.....
. · . · ·r_·...· · · · · · · · · ._
· · ....
· ·_,_.-.
· · · ·. .·. __· · · ·
·~~i. .
0.0
0.0
......
75-j 1
1
50-.
%
TOTAL
0.0
0.0
-,
~~-~
c..,."
0.0
I.. ····1
100-:
')
.....................:_-----
•
% 97.0
100-i
75-,
0.0
0.0
1.1
11.7
.IIIiII! . . . .
0.0
-
• ••• •
, ••••••
O •
NO USE
0.0
_~____
65.2
17.8
0.0
_I
':..:.:..:. ....
1.1
50-1
25-;
0-, .·.. ···.···········.'. ··-------············...·_-·······--········....······
..
%
(
.,~
3.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
'
."
IV.22
0.8
1.1
0.8
0.4
CAl TERt1INAL
H1PACT
PROFITABLE
HILL
USEFUL
atJ
tJOT BE
TO
TO
SOCIETY H1PLEt1ENTOR PUBLIC H1PLEtlEtlTED
3.07
NW·1OER OF REQUIRING APPLICATIONS tJECESSARY 100-~
75-;
50...,;
25-~I
~-.-.--~
'0
100-~
78-80
81-85
1······1
••••••••••••••••••••
......- . . .. .
~-----.:·:~,
1~ 7 • 9
0.0
__
.·~~..,......,._._
NEVER
•••••• ,
• • • • • • • • • •.........
• •---..m
••
• • •uae:&I"1IE _ . _ _
32.0
0.0
LATER
~._",.-.mu
1.2
10.1
0.0
75-;'"
50-~
25-!
I· ···. ·1'
0-,l'n,, ___
"
%
USEFUL
75-77
I· ·····1
~~
DEF I IJ I TE
ASSET
3
1970-71 72-74
TOTAL
0-,
r,
0.22
3.22
2.77
100-~
~·
J• • • •• • I
__
••
• • • •__________
• • • • • • • • ". • • • • •
~·-a:.,.
42.0
0.0
• • • • • • •
...____
- _ _ _ _,.._..."'"__
~~_-..._
0.0
1.8
27.2
• • • •___• • I
~""'
9.5
•••••••
.·_~......-r._:ww....w
3.0
0.6
75-~
50-~
25-~"
,......,
0-1r___
SOrtE USE
%
100-i
.,w.__
____
'
__
• • • • • • • • • • • •_
•_
• • •_ • • • • , • • • • • • , • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
a_a
8.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
4.7
2.4
1.8
~,-".a.t~
0.0
75-~
50-~
25-~p,
--, ........................................................
.
... ____
O
;..,....... JMft~ . . . .
0.0
%
TOTAL
100-~I······1
75-~
•,
50-~
r: •
2 :;-.
_~_i
0.0
._~-.'
~~~.._._"....'.~'r._ ..C'W'..... . . .
0.0
0.0
• • • • •.-.r_,_.
• • • • •__
• .. •.., ____
• • • •.-.
• •..
O-~c
USE
100-~
98.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
1...... 1'
~_._.
I. _ _ . ._ ...____ . . _ _ _
t~()
0.0
0.0
6.5
0.0
. . ._ ....
_. . -. • • • • • • •,•__• • • • • •
_~\
~_;r._
21.9
.I~_
0.6
75-~
50-~
25-.
'
.O-:l • • • • • •.• • • • • •...
- •••••••••••• •••• • •••••• ••••••••••• •••••••• ••
1.2 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.6 0.0 -~
0.0
0.0
i< . . . . . . . .
__ _
-
-
WI
IV.23
=-..
t·
FINGERPRINT SCANNER
\1 I LL
PROF I TAU LE
USEFUL
rIOT U[
TO
TO
SOCIETY I l'1 P L Et 1E I JTOR PUBLI C HlP LEl1Ef JTE [~
I~1PACT
ON
2.41
2.99
3.20
2
NUMBER OF P..EQUIRIfIG APPLICATIONS TOTAL
0.23
1970-71 72-74
75-77
78-80
81-85
LATER
NEVER
NECESSAftY 100-:
75-'
5o-tl······1
J••••••••••••• ,
25-~
O-i
%
DEFINITE
ASSET
100-~
52.0
· ••· ••· · •••••, ••••••
0.0
4.1
0.0
G.l
18.4
I • • • • • • •
0.0
75-:
hO
~
') 'J······I • • • • • • • • • • • • •
J
-.
'- 5-..
o--~"....
•
USEFUL
• • • • ••
loo-i
__....... ...
~
32.7
~:_
0.0
..
~
I • • • • • • •
I • • • • • • •
• • • • • • • •••••••••••••••
......... _.-P_ ..
.. _Wl&_
'~~
7.1
0.0
-.___~
0.0
0.0
75-~
50-~
(
25-, , ••••• '1
0- ~~ _ _~~
• • • •. .•~.--...:_
• • • • • • • •.._,_•.~:w.:
• • • • •.•..,.....:JIa~
• • • • •.....
• •,.~~.
, • • • • • •_..
• • • • • • •• • • • • • • ••
SOt·1E USE
0.0
100-~
7.1
0.0
1.0
0.0
0.8
75-1
50-~
25-'
"
O-t£.a_a
• • • • • • •__
• •Lt_
• •.....• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
a.
TOTAL
1
. - - . . . t. . ~ ______ ~.~.......~,~~~ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _. .
j' ····'j
.
~ 5=~
1.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.0
I' ····'1 • ••••••
,
...__._.____,. .__
50-,
25-.
..... .
0- ~:...r..
__•. • • • • • • • • • • • •
-...=---......
%
0.0
0.0
99.0
16.3
52.0
,~~_.
NO USE
0.0
0.0
• • • • • • ..,,.•..••••••..
~e:.s.I:'.,~"i.-,...~ . .~,_,'%.-.-._
.w_o:e:_~_
100-.
24.5
0.0
G.l
_~
0.0
75-k
5 0-i
25-!
0--, ••••••••••••••• ••••••· · ••••••· · · ••••••••••• ••••.••••
_ . '. . . .
' _ . - . . . . _. . ._ _. .~_ _ . . . . . . _ _.~
. ._ _
r _ _. . I11'._~
~
(~
1.0
0.0
0.0
1.0
....
IV.24
0.0
__....._ _ _ _ _ _ _
.._ _ _eo
_•
_•
_•
_ •
0.0
0.0
0.0
LOH COST TERMINALS $20-30!t10NTH
It1PACT
PROFITABLE
USEFUL
ON
TO
TO
SOCIETY I~1PLH1ENTOR PUBLI C
1.52
2.52
1970-71 72-74
TOTAL
75-!
50-~
INPLE~1ENTED
0.32
2.76
NUMBER OF REQUIRING APPLICATIONS NECESSARY 100-~
\11 LL
NOT I3E
1
75-77
LATER
rJEVEr.
J• •• ••• •• •• •• • • • •• • • •I • • • • • • •
=_.
0-1;L-._______-•.• ••••••••••••••••••
DEFHHTE
ASSET
81-85
I. ·.···1
25-;
9)
'(8-80
62.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
_
17.6
ZWZ,Q
_
_.
0.0
17.6
100-t
75-[
50-~
J••••• ·1
25-:
J• . · · · • I
0- •~I....r-_.. ______
• • • ·'"'__
· ·_____
• · • · ..•_..·_____________
•· •· ••· ·
,______
· · · .....· _·......
· I__
••••••••••••••
...._ ...___.......____.__
~
0,
'0
USE FUL
29.4
0.0
0 -,~L,_.•____
•• •• ••
Q_
._
._
.
~
%
SOt'1E USE
0.0
0.0
19.6
10o-f
75-r
50-;
25-,
0.0
2.0
I •mrm
•__
• •_______
• • •••••
•__
• .•. .••• • • ____
• • • . .• ._______
• • • • • .•••
, _
• .•. .•- •- -• -.
• .,.____
• • • -•-____
• • • • • • • •___
•=-.
•
. . ._ _
_____
5.9
100-~
7.8
~.
~waa~
0.0
0.0
,~
0.0
2.0
-----~
3.9
0.0
0.0
75-:
50-~
25-~
o-~L-.•
· •_
· · .· _
· •.•-•_
· · · · • · ·_--=· · · • · ·_· · · · · · •_·__· ·..· · · · · · · · · · ___
· • • • · · · · · · ·_· ._·...·
%
TOTAL
1
2.0
~~=~ I· ·····1
0.0
0.0
96
• • • • • • •__
• • • • •___
••••••••
-..--
100.0
0.0
J......•
50-;
25-"
0- ~8. _
NO USE
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.0
• • • • • • I •.••.•
I ......
.
__
•.~
.~.---.-.
49.0
0.0
29.4
21.6
0.0
100-:
75-~
50-~
25-1
0--·.L-...
• •_
• •_
• • • • • • • • • • • • • • •_•_• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • ___
• • • •a.•_
• •_
• =•••• • • • • • • • • • •
I
%
0.0
0.0
•
~'FI·
0.0
0.0
IV.2S
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
(
lIARD COPY GRAPH I CAL OUTPUT
It-tPACT
PROFITABLE USEFUL
HILL
ON
TO
TO
NOT BE
SOCIETY It-1PLEttENTOR PUB L I C H1PLEHEtlTED
2.1 11
2.41
2.67
0.53
4
:wtWER OF REQUIP-ING APPLICATIONS -
1970-71
TOTAL
NECESS/\RY 100-r
72-7l~
75-77
78-80
81-85
~JEVEP
LATER
7::>-:
I· ·····1
.
.......
0-,1
I.....................
.
5 O-~
2 ~)-~
~
•"......---"'____.,___ ...
J_~.-.
DEFHJI TE
;\SSET
53.7
100-:
7'5-:
___________..__ .,. _ M_ ."..........___ •.
0.0
::>O-~
25-: , .. · • · .,
%
0.0
__. . .
_~._
0.0
....................
~,.---..- - ••____
._ _ _
• ~ ........_
USEFUL
. ...... , ...... .
.-..e~~_~.
•......•
., • • • • • • •
O-~•
(
I••••••I
,
......
, ......_.
=__.._ •__..__. __
a _ _ r; ____"_ .........,.... ~iJI:......¥!......-s....II:!2't .....,,_\.,....._ _ _ _ _
0.::>
0.0
19.4
12.0
100-:
A .:.;r-
6.5
7::>-~
Jro -~•
25-:
0-; . · · · · · · ....................... · · . · . , .................... .
---. ---
.-..
...
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ ~. . . . . .'~1r.' .............
_ _. ._ _ _ _ _ _..._ _...
__
.. ~.•
~~.-.-
0,
'oJ
SOI1E USc
0.0
100-~
0.0
2.8
0.0
2.3
1.9
0.0
'75-j
.
50-~
').-
0-,b
····.··.···.·······················__··...·····__
·················__·
t:-J-.
00,
TOTAL
0.0
'"
1~~=~1······1
5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
o-~
..."
%
NO USE
I·· · · · · ,
_- --- ......-.. .
,
0.0
•.... .. 1
o-~
2 ;-J - Ir
0.0
0.0
•••••••
I ••••••••••••••• • •• • • I
~~
0.0
..30.6
----------....
47.2
-~----.-.----
0.0
....
--P---~-----
18.1
I •••••••
..
----------~--
1.9
100-t
75-~
50-,
25-t
0-,_·..······.·-·······························.uw··················
p
%
..
0.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
IV.26
0.0
0.5
0.0
0.0
INTERACTIVE 3-DIMENSIONAL DISPLAY
ItlPACT PR.OFITABLE USEFUL
HILL
ON
NOT DE
TO
TO
SOCIETY H1PLEt1ENTOR PUBLIC It1PLEt1ENTED
3.41
4.38
3.14
NLJr"1BER OF REQUIRInG APPLICATIONS I~E CE S S!\H. Y
100-"~
0.07·
1
1970-71 72-74
TOTAL
75-77
78-80
31-8~)
LATER.
flEVCP
75-~
50-~
0-; I' ... · ·· I · · · · · .. · · · · · ·...,__.. .. ... I • •...• • • • I · · · · · · , · · · · · ·.-............
· · · · · · ·. .·
2 5-:
:.s:,___.....
c.'0
fJEF HJI TE
ASSET
__...
~-
32.1
...............
~~
0.0
.,"'t.:~
iI ....... -.:'.•!I~._
... &
............'I~.,...~_
5.4
0.0
0.0
~._..:L.
~
0.0
100-:
75-~
:;25-.
0-; I· ·····1
O-i. _• .._ .. ,....:..:' ····
60.7
96
USEFUL
~: ~..,.,...,_.,;CC;.
0.0
0.0
I' · ·· · 'I
• •••••
I
__ .__ -':"~_._::~:;.'.:: :..::..:~.:..:.:.:.:..
0.0
14.3
100-(
75-i
50-,
25-;
o-~
:
, • • • • • · •.••••••••••.•••••.•• , • ,. • • • • •.••..•••••••••••••••\..
L_
SOlIE
USE
.•'.... __ ..
5.4
%
F
0.0
0.0
:-.,
0.0
_ _ _•
5.4
0.0
0.0
._~. . . . . .-.-:.-
0.0
100-f
75-~
50- Ii
25-~
0-; · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · ·· · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · ·...·____
· · · · · · ·· · ·
4:
. . . . . ._ _ _
%
TOTAL
0.0
1~~:!1"""1
.......-.'.,~.... _:......-:~_>~~.
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
~
0.0
O.G
,...... 1
~[l~ ······. ···..:.!.:~ .~ . ·:.:.::"'':..::~~:':::_':''
98.2
%
NO USE
0.0
0.0
23.2
66.1
8.9
0.0
0.0
lo0-i
75-,
50-t
25-~
O-~ • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • .. • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
....
•
~
%
1.8
0.0
_ _ ....
0.0
IV.27
0.0
0.0
~11
0.0
_.-::"e
1.3
_~.,.....
0.0
.J
t·1EOIun SPEED TERIlINAL $200/t10tJTH
(
ItIPACT
PI10F IT AJ LC
USEfUL
HILL
Tel
TO
NOT UE
SOCIETY ItIPLt::tlDHOR PUBLIC H1PLEt1CrHED
Oi'J
3.52
1.95
Nut·1[)Er~
0.05
2.94
OF I1EQUII1IfJG APPLICATIONS -
I
1
1 J 70-71 7 2-7 l~
75-77
78-Go
I
··.-:-"r=n
, 1 L._ " L... I "
LATL::f~
nEe ES S /Hz Y
I,
%
DEFIrJITE
ASS [:T
G2.0
0.0
8.0
0.0
12.0
0.0
0.0
75-~
50-:
25- i
0-.•
I· ·····1 · · · · · · • · · • · · · I · · · · · · I · · · · · · , · · · · · · · ·' · · · · · · · · . · · · ·
......
l,~~_,_:":111'_ ~'WC"_,_
c.
0.0
34.0
'0
USEFUL
42.0
100-;
~_..
4.0
~rs
.......-.::s::'" _ .....".... ;..
6.0
22.0
-....~.:1IIt.i_,
....'.___
~'_
..........
0.0
2.0
....
_.~
0.0
100-t
'75-t
['0
~
:; -~
25-!
..
0--. • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •·.:r.:•. .••·...• • •_•_•_•_•. • • • ~ • • • • • • • • •......
• • • • •• ••••_n
"
.... _
%
SOlIE USE
..........lJIf· . .'~_~ ... ·~ ...._,_~.,~~·-.ua
0.0
0.0
0.0
~'
0.0
...._.,~"~-.
0.0
0.0
0.0
·~
0.0
100-:
75-:
50-~I
25-.
0- ~• · · • · · • • · · • • • • •r. .•. .•,a_•_• _
• ..· _•_•_•_•_""_
· ..·_....· · • · • · • · · · · • ' . · · •._.r_a
• ·_·_· · · · · • · · • • •
I'.~
%
TOTAL
_ _ _ _ _ ' - " - ' ' ' _ ' ' ...
0.0
......
7r:.
1
5~=t 1
25-1
0.0
~:tIr.:'
0.0
100-:
~
••••••, ••••••
........'
O-L'
f,.
i~O
US r::
%
96.0
100-!•
0.0
12.0
0.0
.......
~·.
___
0.0
I· ·.····1 . ....
0.0
~I
....~_
64.0
18.0
~
__
.~~t
0.0
....:8
-.'_.-~_
..
0.0
• • • • • • • • •~.• •__
• •...........
• • • •"":.'lWew-a,.
• • • .•
2.0
0.0
0.0
75-j
50-.
25-;
O-r I
•
• • • • • • •••••••••••••• , • • • • • • , ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••
,
c.
'0
-
4.0
_
0.0
_ _ . . lII~-._·'·JI~ . . . . . . . . .·.....
0.0
4.0
IV .2'8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
PACKAGE LABEL READERS
H1PACT PROFITABLE USEFUL
HILL
ON
TO
TO
NOT BE
SOCIETY H1PLEt1ENTOR PUBLIC H1PLErlENTED
2.01
2.55
3.35
0.37
NUt-mER OF REQUIRItJG APPLICATIOtlS - 3
NECESSARY 100-;
75-t
50-;
TOTAL
1970-71 72-74
75-77
I· ·····1
DEFItJITE
ASSET
81-85
.······1
25-~·
0-,~b__
78-80
• ....:-'
· ·••· ·_________
· · · · · · · · J • • •_• •__
_·__
% 53.5
100-r~
0.0
0.0
15.7
29.6
LATER
NEVER
·......
· ·_
· · .· , · ·__· ·..•·,________
· · · · · · · ·_·
6.3
1.9
0.0
75-.
•
~o
J· "· · ""I
I••••••I
.=_.-.-_t
0- ;~
• • • ;...•_____
· • •·...•______
• • · • , · •..•____
· • · ...__
•· •••••· ••· · · ••· · ••••
::> - .
25-ii
~w:
USEFUL
39.6
%
1oo-f
'Wt . . . . .:. . .~ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ . - . - . . . . - . - . . -
0.0
0.6
11.9
22.0
5.0
0.0
0.0
75-;II
50-~
25-~
.
....... ,.................... , ...... ,................ .....
.
O "
n..._,_____ ---=_. as"
%
6.3
0.0
-~
sonE USE
..... _ _ _
_
0.0
100-,
_
0.0
4.4
1.3
0.6
._,.~
0.0
75-1
50-.
25-r
•
0-.r • • • • • • •__
• • • • • •.....
••••••••••·
~-..-
%
TOTAL
1
NO USE
0.6
~~=i
I· ·····1
50-[
25-!~
0-1r:..-_ e,
% 100.0
100-i
0.0
~
0.0
·············
• • • • • • • ••
• • • • • •__
••••••••••••••••••·•
' I I ._ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
0.0
0.6
I······ I· · · · · ·1 ..••.• I
_ _ 0_
0.0
0.6
0.0
••
27.7
56.6
0.0
0.0
· · · · · · •· · · · · · ·
__
12.6
2.5
0.0
75-i
50-;
25-~
0-1· • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •£ •
%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
••
~CW'
&.
IV.29
POINT OF SALE TERMINAL
Ir1PACT
\'JILL
OJ l
NOT BE
PROFITAI3LE
USEFUL
TO
TO
SOCIETY It1PLErlENTOR PUI3 LI C
2.113
3 .11~
2.37
NutHlER OF
RE~UIRItJG
; lEC [S S;\RY
100-P
1970-71 72-7 11 75-77
~~il······1
'-J
~
0- o
ill
,......
•
·1I11r,"~_·"""
~:i
DEFUJlTt:
,'\SSET
0~64
3
APPLICATH;NS -
TOTAL
If'lPLE~~ENTED
.........-....
G;J.L "
100-:
•
•
•
~o,:a;;
•
•
•
. . ._ ....
0.0
•
~
•
•
•
•
• •••••
18.5
~~
, ......,
2 '{ .2
%
USEFUL
100-~
0.0
....
a:~~~~.
0.0
~
____
29.6
0--·~ "_:&'_ ..-;wo"• ...• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •_ _ . _
-.-.._~
.... _ .... .:...
r·lEVER
1
•
....
25-~'1······'
~
·_i_'·....
LATEP.
....... .
_~
75-~
50-~
~"'IP!'.•
81-8:5
•
....___,.... . r .... ____...
0.6
78-80
•
•
•
•
•
•
1.~
•
•
•
•
•
•
........ ,....., ..,.
0.6
• • • • • • • • • •• ."_.,..
• • •........
, • • • •...•.-,.
••
~-=-.~'.t._~
G.8
•
~........,.~
7.4
~
3.1
0.0
75-~
""n "
~IJ-~
')f-
~
i..:J- =
o--~ • • • •• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •.=--• • • • •------_
• • • • • •.....
• •-•
~
0.0
0.0
1.2
1.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.5
(
SOllE us t:
.
100-~
7r:;_'
I -"
.,
50-:
'1r:;_"
L.",
•
0--'L •_
· ·_
• ·._•......
· · · · · ·__
· •......
· ·_,·.._"".•__
· ...
•________
· · • • • · • • · · ·.......· _____
· · · · "'_,_,._"".
· · · · ________
· · · · · · • ·".___
· • · ..·__• · • · ·
.
~
~-.:_.
0.6
S'j
TOTAL
1
~~=~~
ro-'
:.;.
I· ·····1
~_
C'.
'(I
NO USE
0.0
0.0
I· · · · · ·
25-.
o-t
0.0
,-wr~
0.0
0.6
,......• · · · · · ·
· · · · · · · · ·__·...._· _· _· _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _..__.,.,.=__.._....
... ,.:... _ ••••,___
99.4
~~~
0.0
0.6
0.0
I . . .. .. . . I
_.~'W:'!'t~._
26.5
40.7
0.0
..
• • • • • • •
~._'._~~
1'.........'2
0.6
26.5
100-'II
'7
r' •
I :;-t
50-~
25-~
.
o--~l.·..-,...,
• • • •______
• • • •...• .,••.•,."•..•t--'
• •_•_•_ _• _•_•_•_•_•••••_•_•_•_•_•_•_•_•. _•_..•__• ..•_•_•.._•_.'"-....
• • •_..•__•......• •...• • • •...............
• •• • •__•.•.
~
o.G
0.0
0.0
0.6
IV.30
0.0
0.0
~
0.0
0.0
POSITIVE
USEr~
I DEf IT I FICA TI OIJ
(-,
"'--j/
'.11 LL
PP-OFITAOLE
USEFUL
IJOT
BE
Uil
TO
TO
SOCIETY H·1PLEilENTOR PUULIC Ii1PLEI1ENTE[)
Ii IPI\CT
2. 'lu
0.57
2.75
3.17
tlUili3ER OF R.L:QUIRfilG APPLICATIONS - 5
TOTAL 1970-71 72-74
j~ECcS S/,F!Y
100-i
75-~
50- 1
~_
I· • • • • •
1 .•.•.......•. , · · · · · · ·
..._ •. _...a:.-.........
.._:..
_':.I.~
0.0
DEFHIITE
/\SSET
81-05
'18-80
I· ·····1
2 5-~
0-·'
~
75-77
_-.:aa.~..-:=-.:
......... _ ....~-._ ....... ':1ft>
4.0
0.0
LATEI'.
iJEVER
J. • • • • • •
I•••.••••.•.....
..
~r.~·.,
·-:.~'
..
..k .....r .
.,.....~_: .....·..... ~
~_
24.3
1.1
100-~
75-~
~- 0 -~•
J '.-
.0
,- :J- • • • • • • • • •
0- 'rI. I
•._
1 J~. 9
%
USEFUL
I •••••••••••••
I • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • , ••••••••••••••
_'B'I:_;M'l,.-.,.·..... ~Ir·~*'AI"~.;.IIJ>Wte"fi .......
. . . . . . . . . .~~ . ,... ;wr . . . . .·_·at~_
0.0
4.7
0.0
100-~
3.3
. .: . ; ............·.W; . . . . •. .A ......r. ..
0.0
0.0
r:: •
7::>-.
50-~
25- -~~
O-~·······,·
..... ·· .. ·... ······, ... ·....... ·..... ·.· .. ..... .
•• _ _.,. . . . . . . . . . . . . . ."........_ _.'•••.' . _ _ _ _ _ _ _
SOi1E USE
7.2
100- 7
75-:"
0.0
0.4
........ ."..._....._
4.0
.....
·-.r.-.:I~
..-~~.
0.0
0.7
2.2
__
..-..~_>~.....,.
0.8
50-:,
25-.
O-'~~...•· ......
• • • _____
• • • • • • • •__
• •:,...•___
• • • • •_
• •_
• • • • • • • • • • • •..•·:...........
• •:':,...,.'.Ir'
• •....
• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •........
••
~,
TOTI\L
~_~_.,·.
1.3
0.0
100-·1······1
75-:
50-~
f'JO USE
100-~
~.~~~_'\Ur.~~
0.0
J
98.6
0.0
0.4
II·~~
0.0
1.1
I••••••••••••• ,•
25-"'
•
O-~
~_,
.... ~ ....~...... ~......,IIIC':"
0.0
0.0
.......,.......
••••••••
••••••
15.6
S·······
32.2
I
113.5
5.8
1.1
75-:
5~[
25-~
.
.
0-. · • • • •• • · • · •.••••••.••••.••••...••...............•••.•....
"
1' .................. _ .
%
1.4
____..
_. . . . ., . . ....-.r:>~~ _ _ _ _ _~IIMJC. . . . .~'O;,.
•
0.0
0.0
0.7
IV.31
0.0
0.7
0.0
0.0
SCRAt1BLE TRANsrlIS
\11 LL
NOT DE
It1PLEt1ENTED
Jr.1PACT
PROF I T /\[1 LE
USEFUL
ON
TO
TO
SOCIETY It1PLEI1ENTOR PUBLIC
2.B4
3.40
1970-71 72-74
TOTAL
NECESS/\RY
100-E
75-:
50-~
'15-'
~- 0- ~
DEFINITE
ASSET
100-~
1
75-77
I. ·... ·1
~_
96
0.33
3.56
NUt1E3ER OF REl1UIRHJG /\PPLICATIONS -
~
IO~l
78-80
LATER
NEVER
I- · · · · · , · · · · . · I
• • • • •_
• •_
• • • • • • • • • • • _• '•_ . . .
••- . _ _
0.0
63.0
0.0
• • • •.....
• •.-.""
I ••••
•••••
_ _.. ,
_________ Ga. _ _
29.6
1.9
75-~
50-:
25-.-::J······1
.......,
J..•...•
~
0-,~.-......-
· · ~_.-.-.-.-.
·.· · ··•···· ······.
.. __
%
USEFUL
81-85
0.0
100-~
. ·"
· · · ·-su_
·· ····.·
___.-....... ____
- -
0.0
18.5
1.9
0.0
0.0
75-:
50-~
25-~
O--rs.1&"I_• _• _
• •
• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • , • • • • • • I •••••••••••••••••••••
.~""
%
SOt1E USE
100-~
________ ~ _ _ _ "'~_"=
7.4
0.0
0.0
__ wucu _ _·...... =.....,..__•_______ __
~
0.0
7.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
75-1
.-:> 0-~•
25-l
o--~tL• • • • •_• •. • •_____
• • • • •*..--=
• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •_
• •_
••••••
_~_~___
%
TOTAL
1
~~=;
50-!
I· ·····1
0.0
0.0
0.0
6= ~
0.0
% 100.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
I
· · · · •· •. · •_· ·.•_._.
· ____
100-~
0.0
I· ·····... ····1
I
2r: ~
8.. _____________ ,
NO USE
0.0
I • • • • • •
0.0
3.7
-..~
__ c.
55.6
__....
35.2
_._!W."'W
•_
•_
• • • • ......
I •••••••
3.7
1.9
75-f
50-~
25-~
O--~L_=
• • • • • •___
• • • • • • • • •_=• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •_.w.
• •___
• • • .--_.__
• • • • • • •__
• • • • • • •= •__• • •
S~
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
(
IV.32
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
IBrI CONFIOLiJTI7\L
DhTA BASE REQUIRI:HENT[)
(
Requirements associated with data bases Here the most pervasive
need of all the required capabilities. This reflects the fact
that 66 out of the 108 applications snecified very large data
bases, ranging from 10 billion bytes to 1 trillion bytes with
one case calling for 100 trillion bvtes.
The need for 10 billion to 1 trillion byte sizes becomes widespread in the 1978 to 1980 tine period. There was a pronounced
trend for the larger data base sizes to be assigned a higher
degree of necessity. This suggests that for applications requiring
100 billion to 1 trillion bytes that data storage is the key
requirement. Applications using 10 billion bytes or less appear to
use large storage as an implementation convenience.
The 100 trillion byte data base was required for the "Personal
Data Bank" application and oust contain complete information files
for the entire u.S. population. Twenty-five percent of the
respondents judged this application to be in the "Never" category
indicating some doubt as to \olhether it -C;"1ould ever be implemented.
(
The ability to search large data bases rapidly t"as also identified.
As expected, the need occurred in the same time frame as for large
data bases, 1978 and beyond. The degree of necessity was concentrated in the "Definite Asset" category. The speed requirements were
cited in terms of search engines capable of performances ranging
from 10 to 10,000 times as fast as today's capabilities. Only one
application required a "Search Engine" of 1,000 times today's
power and only two, Patent Search and La'V7 Search asked for 10,000
times. The conclusion is that a hundred-fold increase will
accommodate most applications.
Thirty-six applications cited the need for advanced data base
management capabilities to better control data bases.
Included
in the criteria were:
•
Data Independence - making it possible to change
the data base organization without changing the
programs.
•
Dynamic Reorganization - the ability for the system
to reorganize all or part of the data base dynamically,
thus providing better overall responses to sensed demands
or to provide preferential service for designated
applications.
Data Base Protection - protection of the data base
against inadvertent or malicious alteration or
destruction.
IV.33
I
I'
IB"1 CmJPIm:;:JTIl\.I..
•
Dynamic Recovery - the ahi li ty to dynamically
correct errors or loss of the data base with
little or no operator intervention.
•
Data Base Security - the ability to monitor and
control access to the data base so as to permit
only authorized access to the data.
The need for these capabilities .,.,ras judged by 71 percent of the
respondents to be "tIecessary." This need starts in 1975 and carries
through 1985 in conjunction with the need for very large data bases.
Only 11 out of the 36 applications requiring advanced data base
facilities also required data bases of 100 billion or more. This
fact coupled with the 1975 need for data base Management, leads to
the conclusion that data base management facilities have wide use
and are not limited to nassive data bases.
'\n advanced canahilitv associate(l i'li th data base rerruirer1ents is
the need for a system to automatically generate and reorganize
information systems.
This includes the programs and data base
organizations needed to provide optirmTI i~pler.l.entation.
Input to the
system would be descriptions and timing of knrn~n and anticipated
inputs and outputs together "1i th expected usage statistics.
Logical
relationships beb-veen fields 'I.vould be part of the descriptions.
Data
base organizations and program generation \..;ould be done on the basis
of the re lationships bet'lrmcn knmvn inputs and outputs.
The system
nust naintain statistics on actual relationship usage.
Periodicallv '''\
the system \.,rould re-optimize, generating neH prograMS and data
base organizations to reflect the latest statistics.
This capability vIas judged to be a "Definite Asset" vlith the need
concentrated tm.,rard the later part of the 1978-1985 tiMe period.
This late date reflects the obvious difficulties in creating such
a system as 'iilell as the sheer size and complexity of the advanced
applications •.
In summary, the need for advanced data base managenent facilities
is required in 1975 which is before the widespread use of large,
trillion byte data bases. The next step after 1978, to large,
complex, dynamic information systmns, may have to avlai t the creation
of automatic programming systems and very fast search engines.
IV.34
D~~A
(
(
Pages
BASE REQUIREHENTS
Capabilities and Applications
ADVANCED DATA BASE MANAGEMENT
III.21
ENTERPRISE SIMULATION
III.31 III.139 AUTOMATED WAREHOUSES
III.32
RETAIL TERMINAL SYSTEMS
III.47
COMPUTER MANAGED INSTRUCTION
III.55
BANK RESERVE REQUIREMENTS MODEL
III.55
BANKING SERVICE SYSTEM
III.57
CHECKLESS SOCIETY
III.58
COMMERCIAL LOAN CREDIT SCORING
III.59
CREDIT TRANSFER (GIRO) SYSTEM
III.50
FINANCIAL UTILITY
III.52
INTEGRATED FINANCIAL SERVICE SYSTEM
III.57
COMPUTER CONTROL OF FREIGHT AND PASSENGER TRAINS
III.58
FREIGHT RATE SERVICE
III.59
INTERCONNECTED SHIPPERS AND CARRIER SYSTEMS
III.70
NATIONWIDE COORDINATION OF INTERMODAL FREIGHT SHIPMENTS
III.79
AUTOMATED WEATHER FORECASTING
III.87 III.120 NATIONWIDE DRIVER AND VEHICLE DATA BANK
III.B8
NATIONAL HEALTH INSURANCE SYSTEMS
III.89
NATIONAL LAND INVENTORY
III.91
PERSONAL DATA BANKS
III.i03
AUTOMATED PLANT INFORMATION SYSTEMS
III.l05
HEALTH INFORMATION SYSTEMS
MANAGEMENT INFORMATION SYSTEMS
III.l07
NATIONWIDE POLICE INFORMATION SYSTEM'
III.l08
STATE HEALTH INFORMATION SYSTEMS
III.l09
III.114
COMMERCIAL DATA PROCESSING SERVICES
III.117
INFORMATION RETRIEVAL UTILITIES
III.li8
JOB PLACEMENT SERVICES
LA W SEARCH
lII.ll9
UNIVERSAL RESERVATION SYSTEMS
III.124
VACATION AND TRAVEL PLANNING SYSTEMS
III.125
A UTOMATED MANUFACTURING PLANT
III.135
PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT SIMULATION SYSTEM
III.14i
MULTI-PHASIC SCREENING
III.155
III.157
PREVENTIVE MEDICINE DIAGNOSTIC CENTERS
VERTICALLY INTEGRATED HEALTH CARE DELIVERY SYSTEM
III.158
AUTOMATED GENERATION OF INFORMATION SYSTEMS
III.80 III.i04 CONSOLIDATED PUBLIC WELFARE SYSTEMS
III.84
HUMAN RESOURCE SYSTEMS
III.103
AUTOMATED PLANT INFORMATION SYSTEMS
III.l07
MANAGEMENT INFORMATION SYSTEMS
III.l09
STATE HEALTH INFORMATION SYSTEMS
III.115 III.154 DISEASE INFORMATION SYSTEMS
III.li7
INFORMATION RETRIEVAL UTILITIES
III.130
PENAL AND PAROLE INFORMATION SYSTEMS
IV.35
Pages
Capabilities and Applications
MASS DATA STORAGE - 100 TRILLION BYTES
PERSONAL DATA BANKS
111.91
MASS STORAGE -
1
TRILLION BYTES
111.78 III.113 AUTOMATED PUBLIC LIBRARIES
111.79
AUTOMATED WEATHER FORECASTING
1:11.86
NATIONWIDE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL
NATIONWIDE POLICE INFORMATION SYSTEM
111.108
111.109
STATE HEALTH INFORMATION SYSTEMS
INFORMATION RETRIEVAL UTILITIES
111.117
LAW SEARCH
111.119
111.121
PATENT SEARCH
111.122
PROFESSIONAL LITERATURE SEARCH SYSTEMS
111.162
OFFICE ELECTRONIC MAIL SERVICE
111.25
111.26
111.27
111.30
111.36
111.38
111.38
111.39
111.54
111.57
111.59
111.60
111.61
111.62
111.70
111.71
111.80
111.83
111.87
111.88
111.89
111.90
111.98
111.103
111.105
111.106
111.107
111.115
111.116
111.124
111.125
111.152
111.41
111.65
111.104
1"11.120
111.129
111.154
MASS STORAGE - 100 BILLION BYTES
COMPUTER ASSISTED OCEANOGRAPHY
COMPUTER COORDINATED TESTING OF MEDICAL DRUGS
RESEARCH MONITORING FOR ECOLOGICAL EFFECTS
AUTOMATED FREIGHT TERMINALS
AIR POLLUTION PREDICTION
ECOLOGICAL BALANCE CALCULATIONS
/\
ECOLOGICAL BALANCE CALCULATIONS
ECOLOGICAL PLANT SCHEDULING
AUTOMATED STOCK TRANSFER
CHECKLESS SOCIETY
CREDIT TRANSFER (GIRO) SYSTEM
FINANCIAL UTILITY
INSURANCE SUPPORT SYSTEM
INTEGRATED FINANCIAL SERVICE SYSTEM
NATIONWIDE COORDINATION OF INTERMODAL FREIGHT SHIPMENTS
RAILROAD CAR TRACING, TRACKING AND ALLOCATION
.
CONSOLIDATED PUBLIC WELFARE SYSTEMS
GOVERNMENTAL PLANNING SYSTEMS FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
NATIONWIDE DRIVER AND VEHICLE DATA BANK'
NATIONAL HEALTH INSURANCE SYSTEMS
NATIONAL LAND INVENTORY
NATIONWIDE VOTER REGISTRATION
ELECTRONIC DELIVERY OF HARD COpy
AUTOMATED PLANT INFORf.1ATION SYSTEMS
HEALTH INFORMATION SYSTEMS
LEGISLATIVE SYSTEMS
MANAGEMENT INFORMATION SYSTEMS
DISEASE INFORMATION SYSTEMS
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES INFORMATION UTILITY
UNIVERSAL RESERVATION SYSTEMS
VACATION AND TRA VEL PLANNING SYSTEMS
IV.36
Pages
111.130
111.13 1+
111.135
III.136
111".137
III.141
III.146
III.157
111.158
111.171
III.173
(
Capabilities and Applications
MASS STORAGE - 100 BILLION BYTES CONT.
PENAL AND PAROLE INFORMATION SYSTEMS
AUTOMATED DESIGN ENGINEERING
AUTOMATED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERING
AUTOMATED MANUFACTURING PLANT
AUTOMATED PROCESS MANUFACTURING PLANT
PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT SIMULATION SYSTEM
AUTOMATED SUBSCRIPTION SERVICE
PREVEN1'IVE MEDICINE DIAGNOSTIC CENTERS
VERTICALLY INTEGRATED HEALTH CARE DELIVERY SYSTEI1
NATIONWIDE POWER GRID)
UTILITY USAGE RECORDING SYSTEM
MASS STORAGE - 10 BILLION BYTES
III.12
A UTOMATED AIRLINE PASSENGER SERVICES SYSTEM
COMPUTER-ASSISTE D LA BOR / /.fA NA GE MENT NEGOTIATIONS
111.19
COMPUTER-ASSISTED TESTING AND GUIDANCE COUNSELING
111.46
III.56
BANKING SERVICE SYSTEM
III.58
COMMERCIAL LOAN CREDIT SCORING
III.58
COMMERCIAL LOAN CREDIT SCORING
III.76 III.l02 AUTOMATED PINGERPRINT ANALYSIS
METROPOLITAN PLANNING MODELS
III.85
III.118
JOB PLACEMENT SERVICES
III.123 111.172 TELEPHONE DIRECTORY AND YELLOW PAGE DATA BANKS
CLINICAL DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS
III.151
CLINICAL DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS
III.151
III.155
MULTI-PHASIC SCREENING
III.165
AUTOMA TE D MA SS TRANSIT S YSTE MS
111.161
MASS DATA STORAGE - 1 BIL~ION BYTES
COMPUTERIZED TYPING STATIONS
111.119
111.121
SEARCH ENGINE - 10.000 T lUES MORE POi/ERFUL
LAW SEARCH
PATENT SEARCH
III.117
SEARCH ENGINE - 1.000 TIMES MORE pm/ERFUL
INFORMATION RETRIEVAL UTILITIES
(
IV.37
Pages
Capabilities and Applications
SEARCH ENGINE - 100 TIMES MORE POWFI?FUL
111.78 111.113 AUTOMATED PUBLIC LIBRARIES
111.80 111.104 CONSOLIDATED PUBLIC WELFARE SYSTEMS
111.98
ELECTRONIC DELIVERY OF_HAR~ COPY
111.108
NATIONWIDE POLICE INFORMATION SYSTEM
STATE HEALTH INFORMATION SYSTEMS .
111.109
111.118
JOB PLACEMENT SERVICES
111.122
PROPESSIONAL LITERATURE SEARCH SYSTE!1S
111.123 II I .172 TELEPHONE DIRECTORY AND YELLOW PAGE DATA BANKS
111.134
AUTOMATED DESIGN ENGINEERING
111.135
AUTOMATED MANUFACTURING FNGINEERING
111.19
111.38
111.58
111.107
111.116
SEARCH ENGINE - 10 TIMES MORE POWERFUL
COMPUTER-ASSISTED LA BOR / MA NA GEME NT NEGOT lATIONS
ECOLOGICAL BALANCE CALCULATIONS
COMMERCIAL LOAN CREDIT SCORING
MANAGEMENT INFORMATION SYSTEMS
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES INFORMATION UTILITY
IV.38
ADVANCED DATA BASE r1ANAGEMENT
(
PROF I TABLE USEFUL
ON
TO
TO
SOCIETY H,1 PL Er~ ENTOR PUBLIC
HILL
NOT BE
H~PACT
2.37
2.75
n'PLEt"E~!TED
0.47
2.59
NUMBER OF REQUIRING APPLICATIONS - 36
NECESSARY
TOTAL
1970-71 72-7 J-I
l~~:JI······1
.
5O-~
25-~
()-~
75-77
78-80
81-85
LATER
NEVER
'
.............•...... I······.······. . ..... ...... .
,
~
L
DEFINITE
ASSET
100-!
75-t
50-_
70.8
0.0
10.1
0.3
30.4
23.9
0.9
25-~1······'
o-~
...•...•.....••••••••......••••••• , .••••.••.....•
~--
USEFUL
%
100-~
22.1
0.0
--0.4
1.2
10.9
0.2
75-i
50-~
(
25-~
L
_.....,______
____________________________________________
o-!········
........
··.·.·.··
... · ..... · ....... ·.·· .. ·.· .........
SOt~E
USE
100-Po
75-~
50-[
~
4.1
0.0
0.1
0.9
1.6
0.5
0.7
0.3
25-~
o-~!..• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
1.1
%
TOTAL
l~~:il······1
50-1~
.
0.0
0.1
0.3
25-,'
0- M
o.
98.1
'0
NO USE
• • • • • • • • • •• • •
0.0
0.8
.- .....
0.3
0.2
0.1
I ......• •• •••• ,
b
15.0
0.1
43.1
30.5
• • • • • • •• • • • • • •
Q
7.1
1.5
100-1
75-,
50-I
26:1 ................................•.•.............•.•......
Ii
P.
o.
'0
1.9
0.0
0.0
0.5
IV.39
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.2
AUTOt1ATED GENERAT ION OF INFORMATION SYSTEt1S
",
\-_?)
('
H1PACT PROFITABLE USEFUL
\'iI LL
ON
TO
TO
NOT BE
SOCIETY It1PL E~1ENTOR PUBL IC It1PLEt1ENTE[)
2.43
2.42
0.54
2.51
NUMBER OF REQUIRING APPLICATIONS - 8
NECESSARY 100-r
TOTAL
1970-71 72-74
75-77
78-80
75-~
50
25-~1······1
o-~ J
••••••••••••••••••••• •
81-85
LATER
NEVER
-1 .
L.
%
DEFItHTE
ASSET
100-~
14.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
__
:;1 ...... 1
e
O-~L
_
%
58.6
100-~
•• • • •• • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
0.0
0.0
1.8
_
••
• • • • • • • • • • • • •••••••••••••••
4.1
6.9
75-~
52 05
USEFUL
_____
I·. · · · ·
22.3
75-1
50-.
25-&........
0• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • I· • • • •
% 16.9
0.0
0.3
0.5
7.4
100-D
2.0
1.3
·······1
= _
27.6
•••••••• ••••••
5.9
1.0
/
• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
6.1
2.6
0.0
75-~
50-~
25-~
O-i' ······•······ ·· ···············-· ········ ······.
······· ····
TOTAL
%
1~~;
50-~
4.1
I. ·····1
25-'
0.3
0.3
••••••••••••• ,......
o-~
•
NO USE
0.0
% 93.9
100-;
0.0
0.5
2.6
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.5
1·············1·• ••••• , •••••••
35.3
41.7
11.0
2.8
75-il
50-1
25-!
o-~•• · • • • • • • • • · • • • • • • • • • · • • · • • • • • • • • • • • , • • · · • · · · • • • • • • • • • · · · •
%
6.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
IV.40
2.8
1.8
0.8
0.8
'-. . . .. /
100 TRILLION BYTES
MASS DATA STORAGE -
(
H1PACT
PROFITACLE
USEFUL
\/1 LL
NOT [3E
TO
TO
SOCIETY ItIPLEtlEtJTOR PUBLI C H1PLEt1ENTED
ON
1.56
3.19
;W~1BER
1.83
OF P.EQUIRHJG APPLICATlmJS -
1
1970-71 72-74
TOTAL
tJECESSARY
I
1.67
75-77
1~~=~_1······1
50-:
73-80
81-85
1...... ,
2 5-~
•••••••
O-~
l ___
DE FU.JI TE
ASSET
i~EVER
LATER
•••••••••••••••••••• •••••••, ••••••
~""""'_~.""
% 87.5
100-"
75-.•
____
0.0
,,,,~_,,~~._~
0.0
2.1
_____
~~
0.0
6.3
__
_________
~···.,,,,
64.6
;~
14.6
50-:
.·
'J5-~
'-
0- ~__· · • • •.....·,.-:·........
· · • • · • • •...........
• • • • • · •.......
· · · • •. . .· · • · ·....· · • • • • • • • · · · • •......· • · · · · · · · • ·
.-.~
USEFUL
(
,.,.~_,_
2.1
%
100-(
75-:
50-:
25-:
0.0
0-;' I • • • • • • I
;,_~:.J._~
0.0
;~.,..
0.0
. . ,..........__. ·..·."_·. . .
6.3
%
100-'
~~~.~
0.0
......-.......
0.0
..
..,..~:~~
2.1
0.0
•••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••
"·_.re.~_----..·_
SOIciE USE
~---.'_
0.0
0.0
~_
0.0
....·:·_ _ _ _ _
i;a;..~'
2.1
~
2.1
__
~.-.
0.0
_ _ _,.
2.1
75-~
50-;
25-~
•
O-~ • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
...-. .....
_.~.
2.1
%
TOTAL
1~~=:I······1
50-.
a.:...:.~~
0.0
0.0
....
..
_~
_
~~._:
0.0
0.0
·
25-.
0.0
%
100-~
97.9
0.0
0.0
2.1
2.1
2.1
-,..... .1...... 1
O-l. __~':'::: .• •~:.:~.:.:...~.:. .•.. ::: ••. ____
NO USE
. _.......
_ _ _..
8.3
0.0
• •... _.
II
• __
68.8
16.7
75-"
50-1
25-,
O-~ • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •---~--·-·,-----••••••••••••••••••••••••••~ •••••••••••••
:..-....-
(
-
"- .
2.1
_ _ _ _ _ _ I_ _ _ _ _ _- - - - - - - - - .
0.0
0.0
0.0
,
IV.41
0.0
0.0
2.1
0.0
1_._. ___ .
~.,
!
MASS STORAGE - 1 TRILLION BYTES
It1PACT PROFITABLE USEFUL
ON
TO
TO
SOCIETY IMPLEHENTOR PUBL IC
2.58
2.49
3.03
WILL
NOT BE
It1PLE~1ENTED
0.40
NUMBER OF REQUIRING APPLICATIONS - 10
NECESSARY
100-~
TOTAL
1970-71 72-74
75-77
81-85
LATER
NEVER
75-~
50-~I······I·
25-~'
0- ~~
o.'()
DEFINITE
ASSET
78-80
100-~
49.7
••••••• , •••••• ,
• • • •=.a
•••••••••I
0.0
__
• • • • • •
0.0
23.8
17.8
•
••••••••••••••
2.4
0.9
75-'
50-~I······1
2-.",r.;-"
o-~..
l~'
•••••••••••••••••••• 1
•••••••
••.•• - I • • • • • • I • • • • • • •
21.8
12.4
B..-
96
USEFUL
39.6
0.0
0.0
2.4
3.0
0.0
-
100-j
75-u
50-~
25-~l
______________________________________________
0- • I • • • • • • I • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •• • • • • • •• • • • • • • • •• • • • • • • • •• • •
Sot1E USE
%
100-~
7.5
0.0
0.0
1.1
3.9
1.9
0.4
0.2
75-f:
50-r;
25-~
0- B
~ • ••• ••• •••• •• •• •••••••••• • ••••• •••• •••••• •••••• •• •• •••• ••
TOTAL
%
1.9
1~~=~1······1
50-P:
25-;
a-.nLn-.
NO USE.
% 98.7
100-r:
0.0
0.2
0.0
...... · · ••. · · t • • • • • •
0.0
0.2
1.1
0.2
I······. ······1
8.3
__
50.7
32.3
0.2
0.2
.
• •.• • • • • • •_• • • • •
6.0
1.3
75-t
50-~
25-f
o-!L.• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •••• e. • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.9
IV.42
MASS STORAGE - 100 BILLION BYTES
IMPACT PROFITABLE USEFUL
Hr"LL
ON
TO
TO
t'nT BE
SOC IETY IMPLEMENTOR PUBLIC IMPLEMENTED
2.40
2.61
2.59
0.59
NUMBER OF REQUIRING APPLICATIONS - 42
NECESSARY
100-~
TOTAL
1970-71 72-74
78-80
81-85
~ATER
NEVER
75-!
5 0-
1, •••••• 1
25-j,j
o-~
La
44.0
DEFINITE
ASSET
75-77
100-~
••••••••••••••
••••••••••••••••••••
1
•••••• , •••••••
__
0.0
1.5
0.0
17.0
19.1
5.4
0.9
75-~
- ~ ······
52 05l
1•••••••••••••••••••• 1............. . I .•....•.......
o-~
t
I
USEFUL
100-~
75-~
44.7
0.0
2.0
0.1
19.7
18.6
0.6
3.6
50-~
25-~
L ______________________________________________
O-~I······I •••••••••••••••••••••• • •••••••••••••••••••• ••••••
%
sor1E USE
100-~
B.o
0.0
0.4
0.0
3.8
2.4
0.4
1.0
75-~
50-~
25-~
0-' ··········.·.··.. ············.. ·····.. ··.. ···············
i
1.3
%
TOTAL
1~~=~1······1
~~:'i~
0-
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.3
.
• • • • • • • • • • • • • ••• • • • •
11
0.4
0.3
0.1
I· ············1 •••••••
• ••••••
L
o.
'0
NO USE
100-~
98.0
0.0
0.2
4.1
7~~
40.8
40.5
2.1
10.2
.
50-~
25-t
,
.
O-u • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •• • • • • • ••.• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
2.0
C
\
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.5
0.6
0.3
0.3
MASS STORAGE - 10 BILLION BYTES
H1PACT
PROFITABLE USEFUL
WILL
TO
TO
NOT BE
SOCIETY IMPLEt1ENTOR PUBLIC H1PLEMENTEO
Ot~
2.44
2.56
2.92
0.33
NUMBER OF REQUIRING APPLICATIONS - 14
NECESSARY 100-"
TOTAL
1970-71 72-74
75-77
78-80
81-85
LATER
NEVER
75-~
50-~
25-~1······1
0-'L
%
DEFINITE
ASSET
100-~
0.0
0.0
11.5
10.4
1.4
0.6
75-~
50-~I······1
25-
o-~
~
3
•••••• J ••••••
••••••••••••• , •••••• 1
I ............. .
- -- 0.0
48.1
0-
'0
USEFUL
27.6
.............__ ,····················1 ............. .
0.0
6.1
100-!
25.1
15.2
1.6
0.1
75-~
50-;
25-,
-0-,i.······. •••••••••••••••••••• , ...... . • ••••••••••••••••••••
1
9,;
SOt1E USE
100-~
16.8
0.0
0.3
2.1
8.4
0.9
0.4
75-!
5O-P
25-~
o-~ I · • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
,
TOTAL
%
a
4.1
100-~I······1
75-f
50-I~
25NO USE
100-~
0.1
0.9
••••••
•• · ••• · •• • • .• 1
o-!,
90
0.0
96.7
0.0
0.4
12.8
1.4
0.4
I ......• ······1
46.4
30.8
1.0
0.3
• •••••••••••••
4.8
1.4
75-!;'
5025-w
0- •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••
%
0.0
0.0
1.0
IV.44
1.3
0.7
0.3
0.0
/
'-,
MASS DATA STORAGE - 1 BILLION BYTES
It1PACT PI1.0FITAGLE USEFUL
HILL
on
TO
TO
NOT BE
SOCIETY IMPLEt1EI'HOR PUBLI C I t'1 PLE~1ENT E[)
2.41
1.43
2.78
0.33
NUt-mER
OF REQUII1.ING APPLICATIONS -
NECESSARY 100-~
r( 5-~
50-t~
25-'
TOTAL
1
1970-71 72-7 11 75-77
78-30
,.......
81-85
0-.....'-.:. ____.....·_,· · · ·=___
· · · · · ·_.__
· · · · · · · · · • ·- · · · · · •
"
DEFINITE
ASSET
% 16.3
100-;
75-,
:.>o-~
25-:
rAW
USEFUL
0.0
2.0
2.0
•
8.2
__
~~~.
0.0
0.0
1······1
••••••• ••••••
E _______
.___
...
_
% 55.1
100-f
4.1
r~EVER
...... ,· · · · · · · · · · · · · ·
w'-'......
I· ·.. ··1
0- ~
LATEr..
I • • • • • •
•• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
._
. _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _. . . ._ _ _ _ _ __
0.0
0.0
4.1
3G.7
10.2
4.1
0.0
75-!
(
50-~
,-5-~k, ......•
')
O-t•
"
~
16.3
%
SOt~E
USE
, • • • • • •.,,.....
• • •=• • • • •___
• • •1_-,
•• •• ••
..... __•...•___
.
• • • • • • • , • • • • • • • • • • • • .. •
,1• • _ _ _ _ _
~
0.0
0.0
8.2
4.1
4.1
..,
0.0
____
....
~..,.
0.0
100-t
75-r
50-:
25-~
........---
0-1 ' · · · · · · , · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · . ·
o.
~
TOTAL
G.l
--~--
0.0
100-:
0.0
2.0
2.0
16.3
-_......
...-~
2.0
0.0
46.9
22.4
0.0
2.0
......
75-~
1
50-, 1
1...... , .
r
')5',......
······1
O-i.:_ __.: ···.:: .:..·'-a .:__
_ _
_= ..:.:. · · · ',::,:,,:.::.:..
'T BE
H~PACT
2.38
2.42
rMPL.E~·1ENTEO
0.46
2.67
NUr-1BER OF REQUIRING APPLICATIONS - 10
NECESSARY
100-~
TOTAL
1970-71 72-74
75-77
78-80
81-85
LATER
NEVER
75-!
50-~
25-1,·······,
0-
DEFINITE
ASSET
I
%
1~~_~
24.5
••••••••••••••••••••
0.0
0.0
1.8
,······1 .••..••.•...••••••••
5o- e
2
"--,
.". Q
o-~
USEFUL
% 48.3
0.0
100-.
75-~
50-;
25-. , •••••• ,
,
%
100-~
19.3
75-~
0-.
525-~
o-~.······
I
TOTAL
4.7
%3.7
0.0
0.4
4.9
I · · · · · •I
22.3
6.7
• • • • • •
3.6
I
17.0
0.6
-
• ••••••••••.••
3.9
0.4
1~~=!1······1
5
25-g
0-[I .
% 95.9
100755025-
9.7
2.6
1.6
0.2
•....... ··.·· .... ····.· ...............••..........
0.0
0.2
0.6
0-.
NO USE
11.8
.
•..••••••••••••••••• , ...•••
, •••••••••.••••••.•••..
o-~
SOME USE
0.0
1······,············· •.......
2.0
, •••••••
• • • • • • • •• •••• I· • • • • •
0.0
0.6
12.0
45.8
0.6
0.4
0.0
•••••••
26.8
. • • • • • • •.••• • • ••
9.5
1.2
0- ••••••••••••• e'. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
4.1
0.0
0.2
1.2
IV.'8
2.0
0.0
0.4
0.4
SEARCH ENGINE - 10 TIMES M:lR! fIO\,!ERFUL
H1PACT PROFITABLE USEFUL
WILL
TO
ON
TO
NOT BE
SOCIETY IMPLa1ENTOR PUBLIC It1PLEM.ENTED
(
2.46
2.25
2.34
0.53
NUMBER OF REQUIRING APPLICATIONS - 5
TOTAL
197()-71 72-74
75-77
78-80
81-85
LATER
NEvER
NECESSARY 100-1
75-,
50-I
2 r.: ft
:r-~I······I·
0.................... 1·············,······ •.......
DEFINITE
ASSET
%
100- k
22.6
0.0
0.0
7.5
10.9
3.3
0.8
75-:)
50-~I······1
L--__________________________________________________
_
25-i
,. • • • • • • • • • • • .,
O-~
~h
USEFUL
0.0
100-'
•••••••••••••• ••••••
54.0
0.0
0.0
••••••••••••••
23.0
2.1
75-~
50- r
2r.: •
L_______________________________________________________
-~-~I······I
0-
H · · •••••••••••• ••••••••• ••••••••••••• •••• ••••• ••••
O.
-?
SOt1E USE
100-~
16.3
0.0
0.0
0.8
6.3
1.3
75-r
50-~
25-~
o-! • • • • • • • I • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
~
L
TOTAL
2.9
%
100-~1······1
75-9
0.0
0.0
0.4
5 0-~
NO USE
%
100-~
•••••••••••••I
95.8
'0.0
0.0
0.8
0.8
0.0
1·············1·......
..
25-c~.'
"
, O-t
•
0.8
• • • • • •.
3.3
• • • • • • I
39.7
41.0
8.4
3.3
75-!
-i
50
25-.
O-~,······,.··
I
4.2
•••••• ····················.~ •• ••·••·•••• ••••••
0.0
0.0
0.8
c
IV.49
0.4
0.0
1.3
(
CAPACITY AND AVl\ILABILI7V
The study was designed to predict future data processing needs
independent of technological constraints.
To accomplish this
the respondents were given a set of future price/performance
curves derived from published articles.
(Figure 5.6 page V.B).
They were asked to use the curves to determine the impleMentation
dates '!lhere price/performance was the determining factor.
These
price/performance sensitive applications are listed in Appendix D.
For any of the applications listed in Appendix D, its required
levels of price/perfornance are by definition found at t~le
intersection of the forecasted date and the curves.
FurtherMore,
if different price/performance curves are available, they may b(~
used to adjust the iMplenentation dates for these applications.
lIm'lever, the price/perforMance curves renresent only the requirements for stand-alone impleMentation of any of these applications.
It should be recognized that there are very fe,'1 one application
shops. Therefore, the total SYsteMs perfornance requireMent
'rJill he greater because i t ~:dll reflect the aggreqation of conventional and advanced applications to be run on the systeM.
(
For applications which were not price/performance sensitive, the
respondents identified the major requirenents explicitly. Three
applications: Missile Defense, Long Range ~'leather Forecasting,
and Air Pollution Prediction are large Federal applications and had
leading-edge performance requirements.
Internal perfornance for
the three ranged from 30 to lOOn HIPS Ulillions of Instructions Per
Second.) :lissile Defense needed response tines in nicroseconds and
Weather Forecasting required ln million bytes of internal storage.
These needs were rated as "Necessarv" or a "Definite Asset" for the
1978-85 tine frane.
High availability was of paramount concern in those applications
tvhere there VTaS risk of death or injury, or ,'lhere substantial
financial risl~s exist, as in tht! controlling of entire plants, or
,..,here great num})ers of terninal users ,,·mula. be (E~rupted hv outages.
Availability ranged frOM "no outages of more than 1 hour" for
autorlated warehouses and freight terminals to essentially "no-fail
systems" for air traffic control and automated landings and takeoffs.
The applications had varying rec{uirer1.ents ~'Jhen considering frequencies
of outage and duration. Autor.lated plants \.vere nore concerned about
avoiding any interruption requiring plant shutdoT:m than they Here
in the duration of down tine. On the other hand, terMinal systens
concentrated on concern ruJout duration of outage. Those dealing
Hi th custOftlerS at the terminal required no interruptions ~..,i th more
than one minute discernible at the terminal. 8thers \"i th more
controlled users, i.e., eMployees, could tolerate UP to 15 Minutes
duration.
71any of the advanced applications will re~uirc significantly better
availability before they will be imple::;ented. Furthermore, systems
must include both longer mean timc to failure and reduced duration of
outage.
IV.50
CAPACITY AND AVAILABILITY
Pages
Capabilities and Applications
AUDIO RESPONSR - 1000 VOICE RESPOnSES
III.123 III.172 TELEPHONE DIRECTORY AND YEJ,J,OIl PAGE DATA BANKS
III.79
III.30
III.31
'£II.49
III.57
III.77
III.86
III.96
III.124
III.136
'£II.156
III.162
1"II.166
III.168
CORE STORAGE - 10 BILLION BYTES
AUTOMATED WEATHER FORECASTING
HIGll AVAILABILITY
III.65 AUTOMATED FREIGHT TERMINALS
II1".139 AUTOMATE D WAREHOUSES
III.94 HOME COMPUTER ASSISTED ,INSTRUCTION
CHECKLESS SOCIETY
AUTOMATED LANDINGS AND TAKEOFFS
NATIONWIDE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL
III.148 INTERACTIVE NEWS AND ENTERTAINMENT
UNIVERSAL RESERVATION SYSTEMS
AUTOMATED MANUFACTURING PLANT
OUT-PATIENT MONITORING
OFFICE ELECTRONIC MAIL SERVICE
AUTOMATED ROADWAYS
AUTOMOBILE COLLISION AVOIDANCE SYSTEMS
III.81
HIGH PERFORMACE - 1000 MIPS
DEFENSE AGAINST A 100 MISSILE SALVO ATTACK
III.79
HIGH PERFORMACE - 100 MIPS
AUTOMATED WEATHER FORECASTING
III.36
HIGH PERFORMANCE - 30 MIPS
AIR POLLUTION PREDICTION
III.81
HIGH RESPONSE
DEFENSE AGAINST A 100 MISSILE SALVO ATTACK
IV.S1
AUDIO r..ESrOtJSE -
1000 VOICE
RESPONSES
lfiPI\CT
PROFITM3LE
USEFUL
\JI LL
i'JOT
[3E
011
TO
TO
SOCIETY It1PU::1 IE: nnr. PUULIC I flPLEI1E; neD
2.62
2.00
i~uriLr:k
0.29
2.80
OF f!EQUIRING I\PPLICATIOfJS -
1
IJ70-71 72-74
75-77
73-80
81-85
.... ..I
...... I • • . • • • , . • . . • • •
LATEI'
iJEC[SSM!Y
... ·1
Gl.B
%
D[F It 1I TE
/\55[T
100-[
'75-:
50-;
25-:•
0-.n
.............,......I
0.0
o ')
3 U.t...
0.0
I· · ··· ·1 · • · · · · · · · · · • • • · • · · . · J • • • • • • • • • • • • • • · · · • · ·
, ..""., .........llla,. _ _ "::-18~"","''''_'''·'.",,,'!"~ • •r':'Ji.':.1Il: '.1.7'''-.-1''.·rU
",
0.0
'()
USEFUL
0.0
12.7
0.0
:1IIt .... 'Sl'..:!lIr
11~.
0.0
·Jf{:w.·~.~.~"~S'
5
I • • •••• •
..".iti·~i ;sIn....., .............n.
.'it·.,. ...
".;J ... .,
0.0
10.9
100-:
75-:
50-~
(
25-:
0--: ' .....• ,. · · ...••..•......· ..·.It.,.,tS._·.t"
· .••..
· · .. · · · · · · · · · ,. · · · · ., ... · · · ·
... ...
~
i'· . . . .·-l........~~S:.a.....·._ .......,wr ... ·_.lS·_:~_
'.,
100-'!
7 Cj-.
<:.
sc;:[
US[:
0.0
50-:
25-"
O--~ , •• • ••• I
•.a:'_.' __ ...
·
TOTAL
3.G
0.0
0.0
~~·~
100-~
.............."'Y',·, .. SlII\Ir" ...
"'II
. . ,..
0.0
',~.>_"",
.•:.
.'''~''la..''I.!'I:
.,r·
1.2
0.0
'"1f.. . .
·,.··Jr.-· ........ ~
0.8
1...... ,
••••••I
•••••••••••••
I • • • • • •
_ _ _ ....·. . . _ _ . _ _ _ _ _ . . .•• _ _ _
% 100.0
IJO USE
. . ........c_a
0.0
..
~
·.'T~ ...-, ..J~··_
~
•••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••
'.
2<=;-~
0- .~
..
'.-.zow"·....
1 n
J.J
:;J - .
."I
~.':"·&':n·".'·1l.,.,...1W" ....
r:l·.. · · . - . . : . , ·..... __ . _ : . • " . ... "'::,o).'S'.""",:,&, • _ _ _ " ' . '. . . .··s
1~~=~ I· ···.·1
'-0
·_~
0.0
0.0
0.0
~~!I
0.0
. . . .:::&:"1t. .......
5.5
_ _......
54.5
•
•••••
I
•••••••
·~
...lt.;·lW· _ _··• . • · ........ · . · S · . . . . lI. . . . «
25.5
14.5
....:-:
0.0
75-;
50-'
25-~
~
·
0-.....• · · · · · ·_-...aK_·...-__
· · · · · • • · •. · · · · · · ·..· · · · · ·...· · · · · · · •....· · · ·...·. -·. .·- .·. .·_____
· · ·...-..-t.-::-..,.
· · · · · ..·_ ·. 'II."
·
%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
J.O
0.0
0.0
~~
_~-.-:..:
IV.52
-=-r.a.·.~~
~t
CORE STORAGE - 10 BILLION BYTES
H1PACT PROFITABLE USEFUL
HILL
ON
TO
NOT BE
TO
SOCIETY IMPLE~1ENTOR PUBLI C It-1PLEMENTED
2.89
2.28
o. 4l~
3.61
NUMBER OF REQUIRING APPLICATIONS - 1
NECESSARY 100-1
1970-71 72-74
TOTAL
75-77
~~~II······I
0- ~
IL..__
DEFINITE
ASSET
%
100-n
0.0
0.0
3.9
LATER
NEVER
_ _• •
52.9
• •___
• • ,
11.8
· · · · ·_·__
· ·· ·· ~··
2.0
0.0
75-1
.
50-~
2... .,/~-j&! "
•••• "
0-..
%
USE FUL
81-85
,······1
· •_
· ·_
· · · · · • · • · , · • • • • ·•
70.6
78-80
,
••••••••••••••••••••
21.6
0.0
0.0
--
0.0
,............. ,
_._-'
--------9.8
9.8
2.0
0.0
••••••••••••••
100-:
75-~
\,
50-f
25-~
0-1L.' · · · · · · I
• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • I • • • • • • I •••••••••••••••••••••
_~
5.9
%
Sot1E USE
0.0
~
0.0
0.0
_ . ___~••- - . - . - ' -__-
3.9
2.0
0.0
0.0
100-:
75-:
50-~
25-~
O-~L•••
• •, ••• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • __
• • •a.• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • __
• • • • • • • • • •.
0.0
0.0
100-;1······1
%
TOTAL
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
I· ···.. ,
~6:'
• • • • • ·1
· · · · · · · · · · •· · · · · ·
······,· ······
,· · ·_
_
25-1
0-1
NO USE
% 98.0
100-1
'7550-
0.0
2.0
0.0
0.0
3.9
66.7
23.5
3.9
0.0
26:1t:..:.:.:.:.:.:_.
•••••••••••••••••••••••••• ,•••••••••••••••••••••••••••.•••
__
"
%
0.0
IV.53
0.0
2.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
HIGH AVAILABILITY
(
1,/1 LL
PR.OFITABLE
USEFUL
or!
TO
TO
ilOT BE
SOCIETY Ii1PLEt1Ernop: PUl3LIC I HPLEt'1ENTED
H1PACT
2. ::; Ij
2.G8
~HJr1E3F.P.
2.G5
OF RE0UIIHtlG APPLICATIons -
100-'
~
75-~
50-;
~
')-
13
1970-71 72-74
TOTAL
:~ECESSAf!Y
0.88
75-77
I· ·.·.. ,
c. ~-..
0- :.
· ·· · · · · · · · · · · , ·•· · · ·
1_·~""'.-.s~"~"'''_~N~_·~'''''-''~·-=.r
c.
-.,
DEFH!ITE
ASSET
0.1
52.2
100-:
0.3
___
78-80
81-8::;
LATER
I · · · · · · •......
..___ ...............
~
I
NEVEP
·····.,·······
~.'''''~'''''-''''.''aI:''.''''~~''''''''''''··.ar.,......
___
1.0
7.0
75-1
50-~
25-:J" .."."I. . . . . . . . . . . . . , . . . . . . • ...... ' ......I . . . . . . , . . . . . . .
r)_ •
...
USEfUL
':'.
r5
37.3
100-:
0.0
4.6
0.0
8.3
17.9
0.3
-.
'r5-~
r:o •
:;
') c-
•
.:.:.>-.
0--:•r...-..
, • •......
• •:'••.,•__,~.~
• • • •...•.-.-.."
• •..•~•.......
• •~_
• • •. ,.,,.
• •............
• • •_,•...•~,....~
• • • •...•_'•..•~"lM_,WI-....-.
• • • • • • •....•"...._
•_
• •_...•__.......
• •.-~
• •. .•,...•..,"'•"lWI!_
• •.•
G.7
(',
.J
SOfiE USE
0.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
2.4
1.1
0.1
100-:
75-:
::;o-~
25-:
0-
·
II
......~-~....---...
----~
1.3
%
TOTAL
1~~=~1······1
50-:
'jh_'"
c.:J
---..-------"' .,..----....-..-_.__...._-_._--
••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••
~--.
I
0.0
0.0
....
0.1
,......
0.3
...
0.4
flO USE
100-~
0.4
•••••••••••••• ,
o-~-,..~..........,...,..~-.--.--.--· · · · • • · · • • • · • ---. ....-,=- --.. . ....,.
%
0.1
12.8
0.3
29. 11
3G.2
97.6
·
••••••••• ••••••••
0.0
. ..... ,
•......
· •'.~~
•••·
~-~----'-~
17.4
75-!
1.4
50-.
25-,
0--,L..
• • • · • • • • •-=e
•- • • • • • •_ • · • • • • • • •___
• • • • • • ·_ · • • •• ••••_ •......• • • • • • • • • • •·•• • • • • • •
%
o.G
2.4
0.0
0.6
0.0
0.1
0.3
0.9
·
~_
1 __
IV.54
HIGH PERFORt1ACE - 1000 t·ll PS
H1PACT
USEFUL
HILL
PROF I TA8 LE
rIOT BE
TO
otl
TO
SOCIETY H1PLH1ENTOR PUBLIC H-1PLEt1ENTED
2.74
2.29
2.77
NUHBER OF REQUIRING APPLICATIONS TOTAL
0.55
1
19'10-71 72-7 11 '75-77
78-80
~FII· ···.··1
NECESSAF~Y
1 :J
~
__
___'_._'!"'-__
82.2
C'.
-:)
L>EFHlITE
ASSET
'~
i.JEVER
.-.t" ___. _ . _............___ r. ._ _ . . . . . . . .
0.0
!~_
2.2
G.O
. ,. . .'.
••••••,
• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
~
LATEr~
I· .. ···1
-~
25-.
O- '•,.
81-35
-_~-_.-..~
• ••••• I •••••••
'11:.::l1li: . . .· . . . . . . ·.·-...........
11.1
··,1"~··3
2.2
100-:
75-~
50-"-
')h_~
~:J
!iiI1 •••••• ,
0- 't"
• •..• • • •.....,.
• •...........
• • •-..•...•___
• • • • • • •..,"..,_
• •..• • • • , • • •.,.·1»:
• •..IJo'.':',..,._,WM--....
• • • • • •,...........
• • • •.....• •.....•_'.•__•._.,.• ,.
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
11.1
2.2
0.0
f.--..·~_~
"
JSEFUL
,_,.,.~
·"tt'_..........' . . '-_· ..
..,.~
:~
:.~
100-,
75- r
:J
r- 0- ,•
25-;
O-t I -..,.·._!
• • • • • __
• •......
• • • •.....•::a..-....fE
• • • •......
• •:. .•·_•_•·_•_•. .• • •
%
4.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
?;'!I...
SOf'1E USE
~_
...
• •.....•·..•,..•...• • • • • • • • •...•'tlIIII!I"
• . .•._ •..._ • . .•. ____
• •.,...• • • • • •...-u'.o
• •
~a:.-;.II1'
if,..··~~:.Jrj;·
2.2
2.2
.i_~
0.0
0.0
100-:
75-r
50-:
25-,
O
~
-~
........................................................
.
...........
..-__
a..-...--._~
%
TOTAL
1
~ ~=t.' I· ·····1
~05=~~·~
t:..
NO USE
0.0
~
0.0
WII'. . ._....,.-... . . _5Y'PMP.~_'S1111K"'P:;_~ ... ~..., . . . :..._.,1"'dl. . .: ................; .............,_~ • . ___; ....._ .
0.0
0.0
·I·····1
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% 100.0
100-t
0.0
2.2
0.0
75-i
50-~
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0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
_______=:..:..::::.:.:.:.:~.
75.6
••••••
15.6
4.4
2.2
0-, · · · · · · · ·___
· · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · ·___
· · ·•·_.__
· · · · · ................
· · · · · ·,.·_· ... .
L.--.~
%
0.0
~~_eI'~
0.0
0.0
..--.-.-.-~_a.
0.0
IV.55
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
"-
)
/
HIGH PERFORMACE -
H1PI\CT
PROFITACLE
TO
2.89
USEFUL
TO
NUMDER OF REQU I R HiG I\PPLI CATIONS -
1
75-'7'1
1970-71 72-'(4
rJECESSARY
.,
78-30
LATEP
81-85
rJE',fEP
•. .. •. I •••. . •
•• •• • •• • • • •• • • •• •• ••J
r . ••. •••••• ••••
0.0
36.7
22.4
2.0
0.0
2.0
10.2
0.0
100-:
75-:
1':0 "
::>
~5-~
-Ii
r::.
0-;•
J· · · · ·
'1t _ _
USEFUL
MIPS
\JILL
NOT BE
IHPLEnEtHOR PUGLIC H'1PLErIEiHED
0.4/1
2.28
3.61
Of';
SOCIETY
DE F Ii JI TE
/\SS ET
100
·1 •••••••••••••••••. •• 1.. . . . . I
"·_"':~""'·r.,_
(... _..; ......
0.0
100-~
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0.0
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...............
2.0
~_,....,.MI[_
•••• ••I
•••••••••• ••••
.......... __ .....
... _; ......,.....,...... .......
~,.
.~
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8.2
32.7
2.0
~
0.0
75-~
50-~
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f" J • • • • • • •
o-~
I •••••••••••••••••••••
• • ••••
~
• • • • • • • ••••••••••••...
"
sonr:
%
USE
16.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
12.2
4.1
0.0
0.0
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75-~
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~r,-'
t_
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• • •........
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,J
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0.0
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0.0
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98.0
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·_·_._ilP~,.,·_~.~~
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,······1
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'~_,..~~~-=
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. . . . . . . . . . . _.,_. .
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._
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2.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
IV.56
2.0
0.0
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0.0
HIGH PERFORMANCE - 30 HIPS
InPACT
Pf:OFITABLE USEFUL
'ill LL
TO
TO
t'JOT t3E
SOCIETY Ii'lPLEHENTOR PUGLI C IllPLEtlEiHED
O.GG
1.98
3.22
3.25
ON
NUMBER uF REQUIRING APPLICATIONS - 1
fJECESSAR.Y 100- I7
TOTAL
19'70-71 72-74
'rB-Go
7)-77
31-85
LATER
rlEVEP'
75-~
50-[
25-, J• • • •• -I
..
0-{_~·_"!WR_'
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%
..........
24.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
15.G
2.2
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0.0
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......... ,. . ~ . . _ . _.•:~ " , , " "..•';'-'._ :........... :\S, ..,... . . . . . ,If: ~ .............v.:i...
0.0
0.0
35.6
0.0
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4.4
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TOTAL
l
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10 O-~ I· • • • •
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0.0
0.0
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• •• •••••
0.0
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0.0
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···
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2.2
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•
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......
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
~_.,~_...-v
IV.57
HIGH
r~ES POr~SE
IMPACT
USEFUL
\J I LL
PROFI TAL LE:
TO
t~OT l3E
TO
SOCIETY H1PLEilE:iJTOR PUBLIC ItlPLEtlEtnED
2.7 11
2.29
2.77
0.55
art
NUt1BEf~
OF REQUIf~It~G APPLICATIOtJS 100-~
1
1970-71 72-74
TCTAL
75-77
~~=!I······I
'"
~
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o-~
.
72.1
%
D[F I iJ ITE
ASSET
· · · · · · · · · •· · · · · · · · · ·
75-~
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25-~
J. · · · · .,
0- "
i0oi
23 • 3
100-~
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iJEVEr
I.····.I......,..............
58.1
2.3
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2.3
.............J'•• • ••• ............., .......
I
•
%
USEFUL
0.0
0.0
100-:
81-05
'(0-80
•
•
•
•
•
•
0•0
0 •0
0•0
14 • 0
II • 7
4 •7
0•0
75- =
::> -~•
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• • • • •...• • .......
• • •,..•___
• •; _•..•• • •
;a.~Jlre.-.:~.-.r"W:':'K"
2.3
%
SCkl[ USE
100-~
0.0
~
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0.0
a.~
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~
2.3
0.0
0.0
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0.0
0.0
75-t
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......................
...., .....
%
TOTAL
. . ._
~
. . . . . _ .......... _ _ _
0.0
0.0
1~~=~1······1
50-:
.
~ • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •.,..!.S
• • •.'<•.........
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_ _ _. _ . - ' 2 ......
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0.0
~.1.Il
0.0
.,~:_.;:JIIO·~""~"~JlRN~
0.0
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0.0
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• •_•....• • • •
0.0
0.0
2.3
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100-:
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~.7
2.3
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•_
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• • • •__
• •..•_• • •....•__
• • • • •...•_• • • •
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. . . _ _ _ _ _ ...... _ _
%
l"nlt~_
0.0
*'*,~
0.0
0.0
IV.s8
0.0
.~._
2.3
0.0
0.0
(
ADVl\UCED CAPl\BILITIES
A number of applications v/ere dependent on capahi Ii ties whi ch
do not exist or exist in only rudiMentary form in today's systens.
'I'hese ranged froM a security and privacy mechanisM needed by some
applications today to systems capable of making res~ectable scores
on standard I.O. tests.
'1'he need for a security and privacy mechanisn ""as found to be
associated primarily with data base systems containing personal
or proprietary information and \d tIl applications ~,'lhich would be
attractive targets for fraud.
This need becomes pronounced in
1975-77 and is an increasing requirement from 1978 on, as more of
these types of applications are implemented.
Storage and manipulation of graphical data was identified by four
applications. The need ranged up to one billion graphical pages
for a Hatiom-lide Police Information System.
It vIas rated as a
"Definite Asset" for the 1978-80 period •
(
.7\.utomated design and automated manufacturing engineering specified
a need to have concise internal representations of three-diMensional
objects. This perMits capture and manipulation of information
conventionally retained in blueprint files.
The related canability
for improved image processing was identified by t\-IO applications.
These requirements are needed in 1978-80 and beyond.
Voice or handvlri ting input ~.,as requested by tv10 applications and
vIas rated as an "Asset" or "Useful." This "lOuld seem to indicate
either that these capabilities are not needed or that the respondents
did not believe they vlould come about in the 1975-85 tine frame.
Three capabilities: Hulti-Attribute Pattern :,latching, Discovery
Systems, and Heuristic Programming, contribute to the programning
of applications typically thought to be in the exclusive domain
of human intelligence. rlul ti-Attribute Pattern Hatching permits
a system to compare lists of attributes to determine similarities
and best matches.
For example, human beings find it relatively easy to make near
optimal layouts of dress patterns on a bolt of cloth: whereas, this
is a very difficult operation to program on today's systen. cEhe
reason is that people look at the . . ,11ole pattern _-Ihile COFl.puters
are linited to serial eleMent-by-elenent comparisons.
This exaMple is one from a large class of prohlens occurring in
Most areas of present and future use of computers .Ilul ti-Attri 1)ute
'Pattern !latching can be used tllherever there i3 a need to make
decisions based on applying patterns of expnrience and criteria to
sinilar situations looking for best Matches.
Discovery systems are extensions of tlulti-Attril:>ute Pattern ~Iatching
vlhich \"lOuld allOY: the system to selectively brovlse through data
files looking for similar patterns. The system Hould then forJTl
IV.59
IB'! COlJPIDEUTIAL
hypothesis of the underlying princi;>les and relationship~ causing
,.r-~
the similarities. Further selective brmvsing \'lould serve to confirm "-J
or reject the hypothesis. Such systems vlOuld probably operate interactively so that an investigator could monitor and control the
direction of search. Carried to the ultimate, rlulti-Attribute
Pattern Hatching and Discovery Systems could enable systeMs to address
typical I.0. test questions such as:
"vJake is to Ship as 'Path is to
? A. Forest, B. Man, C. Boat, D. l\utomobile."
---
Heuristic PrograI'1Ining would provide the ability to create programs
capable of learning on the basis of experience.
In a sense, this
is an extension of discovery systens. By storing workable patterns,
a discovery system can form hypothesis of successful patterns and
then select the best ones to match the situations. The application
requesting Heuristic Programming envisions using this capahility to
train general purpose robots by manually cycling them through the
necessary motions.
These capabilities were rated as "llecessary" or a "Defini te Asset"
starting in 1975-77 for the first tHO and 1~178-80 for Heuristic
Programming. The list of applications rCCJuirinq these capabilities,
as a group, could be classed as visionary and "vill require systeM
breakthroughs to be implemented.
"\
/
IV.60
ADVANCED CAPABILITIES
(
Pages
Capabilities and Applications
DISCOVERY SYSTEMS
III.22
INVESTMENT MODELS
III.25
COMPUTER ASSISTED OCEANOGRAPHY
III.26 III.152 COMPUTER COORDINATED TESTING OF MEDICAL DRUGS
III.27 III.4i RESEARCH MONITORING FOR ECOLOGICAL EFFECTS
III.37
COMPUTERIZED WASTE DISPOSAL PLANTS
III.38
ECOLOGICAL BALANCE CALCULATIONS
III.134
AUTOMATED DESIGN ENGINEERING
(
III.47
HANDWRITING INPUT
COMPUTER ftMNAGED INSTRUCTION
III.138
III.167
HEURISTIC PROGRAMMING
AUTOMATED ROBOTS
AUTOMATED TRAFFIC CONTROL
IMPROVED IMAGE PROCESSING CAPABILITIES
III.76 III.l02 AUTOMATED FINGERPRINT ANALYSIS
III.116
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES INFORMATION UTILITY
III.134
III.135
INTERNAL 3-DIMENSIONAL REPRESENTATION
AUTOMATED DESIGN ENGINEERING
AUTOMATED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERING
MULTI-ATTRIBUTE MATCHING
CAREER PATH PLANNING
III.16
III.26 III.152 COMPUTER COORDINATED TESTING OF MEDICAL DRUGS
III.58
COMMERCIAL LOAN CREDIT SCORING
AUTOMATED VEHICLE DIAGNOSTIC CENTERS
III.66
III.76 III.l02 AUTOMATED FINGERPRINT ANALYSIS
ROBOT-CONTROLLED AUTOMOBILE CHECKOUT
III.142
CLINICAL DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS
III.15i
COMPUTERIZED MEDICAL TEST ANALYSIS
III.153
III.54
III.57
III.82
III.87
III.90
III.9i
SECURITY AND PRIVACY
AUTOMATED STOCK TRANSFER
CHECKLESS SOCIETY
GOVERNMENT OPERATING LOTTERIES AND.PA/?I-MUTUAL BETTING
III.120 NATIONWIDE DRIVER AND VEHICLE DATA BANK
NATIONWIDE VOTER REGISTRATION
PERSONAL DATA BANKS
TV _ (;1
I
Pages
Capabilities and Applications
/
UPDATABLE GRAPHICAL STORAGE - 1 BILLION PAGES
III.76 III.l02 AUTOMATED FINGERPRINT ANALYSIS
III.l08
NATIONWIDE POLICE INFORMATION SYSTEM f
III.121
UPDATABLE GRAPHICAL STORAGE PATENT SEARCH
100
MILLION PAGES
UPDATABLE GRAPHICAL STORAGE - UNSPECIFIED PAGES
III.123 III.172 TELEPHONE DIRECTORY AND YELLOW PAGE DATA BANKS
VOICE INPUT
III.8
AGRICULTURE INFORMATION AND ADMINISTRATION SYSTEM
III.123 III.172 TELEPHONE DIRECTORY AND YELLOW PAGE DATA BANKS
,
IV.62
)
IdSCOV[f~Y
(
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TO
SOCIETY IflPLEI ir:fJTOR PUCLIC If1PLL:::;EiJiE::[)
"'l~
2.71
rJUlmEr~
3.13
2.29
OF REQUIfUflG !\PPLICATIONS -
TOTAL
09
1
1 c;r{ 0-'71
LA TF. ['
75-77
:JECESSMtY 100-;
7 r-:.;-.,
50-:
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HEUR I ST I C PROGRN1t·1 I NG
(
IMPACT
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USEFUL
ON
TO
TO
SOCIETY IMPLEt~ENTOR PUBLI C
2.78
2.20
TOTAL
H1PLE~1EtHED
2.44
NW1BER OF REQUIRING APPLICATIONS NECESSARY
\JI LL
NOT BE
1.09
2
1970-71 72-74
75-77
78-80
81-85
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, •.•.••••••.•• ,
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TOTAL
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1 dILLImJ PAGES
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SOCIETY I rl P LEil [~'~TOP, PUrlLI C H1PLEr iEt !TEO
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I ••••• ••
'( .7
3(i.5
0.0
J.O
'(5-:
50-:
25-:
o-~ . · ·r."",,
· ·.'.·:.1· · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · ·tlIi!".''''''
· · · · · . · · · · · · · · · · · . · .. · · . · · · · ..
L..... _ _ ,.
1.9
l3P' . . .aJ . . . ·~ . . . . . . -.:
0.0
.·-.;c'...." .............'If.i IOQ!I!
0.0
IV.71
~-.r"""
•.' . " :••'.,.....w;.1IIJl,•..1IL
0.0
D.O
...
0• •
'M·.,;
~.:~
0.0
_ ... "...........
f;.; ~I:"
0.0
.~.'"*
1
UPD,,\TJ'-\LiLE GRAPHICAL STURAGE -
(JtlSP[CIFI[1i PAr,:;:S
IrlPACT
\!I LL
PF!OF I TAGLr::
USEFUL
iJOT ULc
TO
TO
Ii
iPLD
lr:iHnPSOCIETY
PU3LI C I r:p LEI' 1GJTED
Oil
~-,
2.0,)
r~LJilLJ[:f~
OF
?G2
f~EQUII~IilG
2.80
APPLICATIOtJS 1~rrO-71
TOTAL
0.29
1
72-'(4
7~)-'n
'(G-Cjn
01-05
LAH::f"'.
~H:\I[r
i~ECES S!\f~Y 1 0 o-~
'7/:;_"
I -'
•
') r-
,
50-~
L~:J- ~
.
, •••••••
f
0- t
• • ,:<~_
5.8
0.0
0.0
'\
)
I i ~ PUT
V() ICC
Ii H"lA CT
OIJ
SOCIETY
PROFITM~lE
Tn
H1PLEt1[j~T()R
')
1. 89
;JUHB[I~
........ ·_ ............._.].. "'' - ...
··1\Jr"~_
') r
1 '-.:.;
I'.
\)
DEFliJIT[
/\S5ET
100-~
75-:
50-:
25-:,~
0- ~~
33.7
~lt.:'/[r~
lJ\Ter'
••••••••••••• , ••••••••••••••
.. ·'• •·':11'~' . . _, . . ·..,~_·_,-..\'11
0.0
0.0
0.0
. •. •••I ••••• •
8.7
1.9
1.0
IS. )1
I
18.3
••• • • • , •••• • • •
0.0
2.9
100-r
"7 :;-.
r- ;.
50-:
.
25-:
0- : J • ••••••
.....'. ....................., •••••• , ......, .......
I
.
.
·
. ". I
~
. _.•t:.;wn'~".... . .
:a"_,,.. ._.....,..,.. .....
13.5
0.0
%
TOTJ\l
01-G5
I....................,............................
31.7
%
USE
''''r~
0.0
75-:
50-:
')r,-~
'-.., .. J · · · · . .
~)
SOtlE
78-80
100-:
0-:.
USE FUl
75-77
J • •• • • • I • ••••••••••••••••••• ,
....
I
2
-
1970-'71 72-74
TOTJ\L
'I.
O.3G
2.::;1
APPLICf~TIOr!S
rJECE SS!\R. Y 100-:
:J-~
0-.
r"
L..u.)
OF R.EQUIR.IiJG
75-~
50-~
2'" ~
USCFUl
\11 I I
TO
rJOT BE
PUULIC IilPLEI1Et!Tt::D
-I
100-:
7)-~
J .,.)- •
2 S-~
III!
()
\ -~
~_·k_..-- ...". . . . .·__
...
!. . .1IIft' . .,. . .:a'.... :s-~
0.0
~;.a:
rn.: . .:....
0.0
~'"'"
............... ,'P
1.0
. . . . , . . · . . , __ ."...IC"'. .~... 'WI,....,...·!
7.7
4.8
I · · · · · ·1
I·
·
·
·
·
.
............. , ......
......'............ . - , .
~ .• ·A.W _'lS ....,~.•:........._ .... .,.,
J.O
91.3
.'!ft:·s·.'I!l·.:.:-w·.... :.. ""*'
30.3
lI'l...
:il,~ .•~~".'!J... ,
. . .• • · . . . ,. •,·III>.·:c·.:;tt'lo·1
••••••
'11'.-. ., . .,. .
0.1
I
...... .
if. '''!I:' 2" ..... " . "
47.1
IG.r;
3.8
1.9
·U.~
iJO USE
8.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
IV.73
1.0
1!I1t .... '"
(
l\ssistance in the utilizing of general purpo~e data proces3ing
equipnent and software systems was identified in 51 specific
sy:-;tOT'l::1
applications. 'rHO classes of assistance ~·lere requested:
and techniques to aiel in the preparation of application proqraT1s
and an outside vendor to offer the application program as a nad~ag~.
:lovenent to tactical and strategic planning system:; utilizing
simulation and modeling techniques is a grm-!ing trend.
'J~o sunport
these types of applications, an interactive terr'linal sys ten uti Ii zing
complex search and interactive pattern matching vTaS rerruirecl by
seven applications.
The system would be used to build, evaluato,
optimize, and operate Models.
For three ap::>lications, the probleM
of model development was addressed bv designating the availability
of the models from a vendor as a "Definite Asset." Another solution
to the probleM was to utilize the services of professional siMulation
and Modeling experts.
'rhe demonstrated interest in planning s"'yste!'1~1
coupled '\tIith the user's concern about his ability to acco1"'lnlis~l
the simulation and modeling vlork offers a. narketing opportnni tV.
r:;:'he Computer l\ssisted Instruction (CZ\I) applications also rC<1uired
both classes of requirements.
~he panel requested the availahility
of a library of courses for purchase and for an improved, easier
to use course preparation language.
Specialized languages for specific application areas were requested.
Query languages, either generalized or special purpose such as 1~1
research, were specified three tiMes.
~ language for usc with
career path planning and another to facilitate autonated design
engineering were also needed.
This renresents a possible need for
a "vide variety of specialized cOFlI'lercial languages.
'rhe problem of data capture involved in automating existing large
files such as Patent Search \las stated. The need for sofbJaro
systems capable of automatically capturing, analyzing, and crossreferencinq data v.ras rated as a "lJecessi ty" for the three applications.
A similar canahility to provide automated ~)stractn for
large libraries was rated as a "Definite AS3et."
~lany
of the advanced applications involved scheduling, routing or
allocation. r:i~Jht of these applications asl-:eu for better algori thT'1S
in this area.
The remaining application software requirements were for specific
vendor--supplied application prograns.
'J~h'~ r:tedical application
programs had the additional requirenen t for programs to be pnmarcu
by or under the supervision of trained nedical personnel to aid
in overcoming physician reluctance to demand on non-nrofession<'ll
solutions.
Fiqure 4.4 belmy listR the applications and tIle degree
of necessity assigned to them.
IV.74
IBM CONFIDENTIAL
APPLICATION PROGRl\]'IlS
Application Programs for Commercial
Data Processing Services
Necessary
Automated Court Scheduling
Definite Asset
Automated Hanufacturing Engineering
Necessary
Automated Photo Composition
Necessary
Clinical Decision Support System
Necessary
Freight Car Tracing, Tracking and
Allocation Program
Necessary
Freight Rate Application Program
Definite Asset
rledical Test Analysis
Defini te Asset
Hulti-Phasic Screening
Necessary
Preventive Hedicine Diagnostic
Center
Necessary
Figure 4.4
IV.75
-------~-
------
-------
----
---
APPLICATION SOF'rWARE REQUIREHENTS
-_._---------------_._--
Pages
ADVANCED PHOTO COMPOSITION
AUTOMATED PERIODICAL PUBLISlIING
[II.145
II I. 7 8
Capahili ties and 7\:pplications
AUTOMATED ABSTRACTING
III.113 AUTOMATED PUBLIC LIBRARIES
AUTOMATED COURT SCHEDULING
AUTOMATED COURT SCHEDULING
III.128
AUTOMATED FILE CAPTURE
.£II.78 III.113 AUTOMATED PUBLIC LIBRARIES
III.119
LAW SEARCH
III.121
PATENT SEARCH
III.135
AUTOMATED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERING PROGRAM
AUTOMATED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERING
'£II.145
AUTOMATED PERIODICAL PUBLISHING
AUTOMATED PERIODICAL PUBLISHING
(
III.18
III.45
III.49
III.44
III.94
CAl COURSE PREPARATION LANGUAGE
COMPUTER ASSISTED INSTRUCTION - ON THE JOB TRAINING
COMPUTER ASSISTED INSTRUCTION EDUCATIONAL INSTITUTIONS
HOME COMPUTER ASSISTED INSTRUCTION
III.45
III.46
III.47
CAl COURSES
COMPUTER ASSISTED INSTRUCTION EDUCATIONAl, INSTITUTIONS
COMPUTER ASSISTED TESTING AND GUIDANCE COUNSELING
COMPUTER MANAGED INSTRUCTION
III.16
CAREER PLANNING l,ANGUAGE
CAREER PATH PLANNING .
IV.76
Pages
III.114
III.A9
III.30 III.65
III.48
III.70
III.71
III.136
III.165
III.167
III.171
Capabilities and Applications
COMMERCIAL DATA PROCESSING APPLICATION PROGRAMS
COMMERCIAL DATA PROCESSING SERVICES
COMPLEX LAND USAGE MODEL
NATIONAL LAND INVENTORY
COMPLEX SCHEDULING AND ALLOCATION ALGORITHMS
.
..
AUTOMATED FREIGHT TERMINALS
DYNAMIC SCHEDULING OF EDUCATIONAL FACILITIES
NATIONWIDE COORDINATION OF INTERMODAL FREIGHT
RAILROAD CAR TRACING. TRACKING AND ALLOCATION
AUTOMATED MANUFACTURING PLANT
AUTOMATED MASS TRANSIT SYSTEMS
AUTOMATED TRAFFIC CONTROl,
NATIONWIDE POWER GRID
III.134
DESIGN LANGUAGE
AUTOMATED DESIGN ENGINEERING
III.20
DETERMINISTIC MODELS
ECONOMETRIC MODELS OF THE ECONOMY
III.48
DYNAMIC SCHEDULING OF EDUCATIONAL FACILITIES
DYNAMIC SCHEDULING OF EDUCATIONAL FACILITIES
III.84
llUMAN RESOURCES SIMULATION MODEL
HUMAN RESOURCE SYSTEMS
III.17
III.8S
III.l07
IMPROVED SIMULATION TF:CHNIQUES
CASH FLOW SIMULATION
METROPOLITAN PLANNING MODELS
MANAGEMENT INFORMATION SYSTEMS
III.17
III.20
III.21
III.22
III.55
III.8S
III.141
INTF:RACTIVE MODELING AND SIMULATION SYSTEM
CASH FLOW SINULATION
ECONOMETRIC MODELS OF THE ECONOMY
ENTERPRISE SIMULATION
INVESTMENT MODELS
BANK RESERVE REQUIREMENTS MODEL
METROPOLITAN PLANNING MODELS
PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT SIMULATION SYSTEM
IV.77
SHIPMENTS~
Pages
III.153
HEDICIIL TEST ANALYSIS l'ROGRIINS
COMPUTF:RIZED MEDIC/IL TEST AN/lLY8I8
I II. 7
NOISTURE DEMAND MODEL
/lUTOMATIC IRRIGATION CONTROL
III.84
!1ULTI-llATIONAL LlIllGUAGE INTERF/lCF:
HUMAN RESOURCE SYSTEM8
III.71
NATIONWIDE FREIGHT CAR TRACKING
RIIILROAD CAR TRACING. TRACKING AND ALLOCATION
III.171
NATIONWIDE POWER DISTRIBUTION MODEL
NATIONWIDE POWER GRID
III.151
III.155
III.157
(
Capabilities and Applications
.
III.l07
III.119
III.122
PHYSCIAN DEVELOl'ED MEDICAL APPLICATION l'ROGRAM8
CLINICAL DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS
MULTI-PHASIC SCREENING
PREVENTIVE MEDICINE DIAGNOSTIC CENTERS
SPECIIIL PURPOSE QUERY LANGUAGES
MANAGEMENT INFORMATION SYSTF:MS
LA il SF: ARC II
PROFESSIONAL LITF:RATURF: SEARCH SYSTF:MS
IV.78
ji',"~'
i
I
'.
ADVANCED PHOTO COnpOSITImJ
PROFITA[3LE USEFUL
TO
TO
SOCIETY H1PLEtlENTOR PUBLIC
HILL
tJOT DE
H'PI\CT
ON
1.46
3.21
, NECESSARY
0.10
1
NUHDER OF REQUIRI1JG APPLICATIONS TOTAL
H1PLEnE~JTED
2.00
19'(0-71 72-7 1t
1~~:~1······1
~
:J\J-~
h"
25-:
O ~
-~
7)-77
78-80
81-35
Itir'-:_"'·""''''':••'''''''''.-1.:_ . ·''
79.6
r
0.0
0.8
i!!t, . ...,."u~ .. ·.......lIIt.' ___ '.......AI·:....,.."'f. N
1
2.0
o.~
a~
. . . . 11
0.0
100-:
75-:
50-~
,,),-"
'-:J ¥' ...... ,
0-."
I ...... ,
• • • • • • • • • • • •...................
••••••••
,".,''II'" ..1t .............'C. . . ~.: . . . . . . _ _ _ ..........·w·. __ ·.,.
2 0 • 1~
%
USEFUL
::r:VE:r
1...... 1
I• • • • • • , • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
...• ........,......
•
.1It'.• _"'_~'I.:._"·.'WI~:ft._,1F._"''''''_~'''.'''''' .,",Jl~':«,,~..-:,. . . .
DEFlflITE
ASSET
LATEr.
0•0
0•0
0 .0
• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • ....
• •_,.-.r
• •....
•
.sr-...... ,..........,."I1.
./f"II:k-w.;; . . . ;I/&;:...,..:lIIloi··. . . . . .' .'JII';. . . ' .
13. LI
.«"".r..(9""·~
2.0
..... ~.t·~·~
0 .0
0•0
100-;
75-.
)0-:
25-:
0-; · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · . · · · · · · · · ... · · ·
. . . . _..-._. "::.rat: '2:
1tiIE,~.-:·
%
sonE USE
100-~
0.0
.";W.!:_.~.:
......... :•. .at; .....;.1. _, . . _(.___I~::rs;..'Ift'~_~. .; _..,...~:.t.qr,llWmIuwr.~;,.............·",,,-:.·':tt··. .·........ ,...·
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
'!!!
0.8
7~-:
50-~
') c:-_ M
L.:;J
"
0- •", • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
...
... sa: ....-..___......
.... ...'....
..... _,....:.&........::..;: ... ·.W' ............
" ::.. . .
~..-
%
TOTAL
0.0
1~~:~1······1
50-:
~~~c.:.'
0.0
0.0
~
~
:'lI..L . . . .,..,..... . . . . . . .:-.,,·. . . . . .
0.0
0.0
0-"
· · · · · · • · • ·__· · · • · • · • ••
-=--... __..............,.:_-.;.
~
r . t _.......
NO USE
~
~
100.0
100-~
0.0
:.J~.::IE'._.(t0
0.0
1...... 1
25-:
III!
0.0
0.0
•••••• ,
:.-:.~_'....u:.r~~
0.0
4.1
....._ ... ;a,..,....., . _,JI..
35.7
·· ·.····.·····
..."~_._'.,,.
8.2
. .'":'.... :....,'. • .
2.0
_.IWm:· .•·.::I,;. . .· •
0.0
75-[
50- r
25-!
o-t · • •....· · · · · · · · · ·_·....· ·___
· · · ·.-.-.....
· · • · · · · · · · · ·__· · ·...· · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · ·....·,_._.
··
~
~_____
0.0
0.0
~
~:~
0.0
I
0.0
"
IV.79
~_
0.0
,_~.~_(_...".,_I5,--=_:."!Ir.
0.0
0.0
0.0
AUTm1ATED ABSTRACTItJG
H1PACT
HILL
PROFITAGLE USEFUL
TO
TO
NOT BE
SOCIETY If.1PLEtlEtJTOR PUULIC H1PLEr1EtHED
2.17
2.62
0.74
1.67
(
ON
I
NUHBER OF REQUIRING APPLICATIONS - 1
NECESSARY
100-~
1970-71 72-74
TOTAL
75-77
78-80
81-05
LATER
iJEVER
75-i
5Q-.
25-:
I· .. ·'··. 1
'
J• • • • • • I
0- ~
••••••• •••••••••••••••••••
••••••, •• •••• •
~
DEFINITE
ASSET
% 33.9
100-;
75- jj
::;'Jr;_'
0-:
t.:..,..,
...
0.0
0.0
0.0
25.0
I· ... ··1
0- r~r.....'_"..,..,...· ...
• • • • • • • • • • • • • ••• • • • • • • • • • • •
0.0
100-~
8.9
J· · · . · *1
~_~_~~_
%
USEFUL
0.0
__
_ _____
~"
0.0
0.0
__
~...,.~
... .,..:.
S':'"'-........
0.0
• •••••
~.'-=-ww-I
I
• . .Il
~_"'
1.8
14.3
0.0
75-1
50-t
25-~
(
. ··············,······,········ ..... .
..._______..__________,.._...__...__=. . . .__
o-~,······,············
•c _____.•___
,~~_.._
sor'1E US E
%
100-1
75-.
7.1
0.0
0.0
...
=~
0.0
0.0
5.4
1.8
~_
..
0.0
50-t
25-r.
0-1· · .0. · · · · · · · · · · ••· · · · · ••__aM!.
· · · · · · · •· · · · · · ·_.•__· · · · · .. · · · ·..,___
· · · · · · ·. .
Iio~
%
TOTAL
100-t~
75-11
50-~
_ _ _..
~~'_
0.0
I· ·····1
0.0
__
0.0
.~~.-._=
0.0
0.0
0.0
I· ····.,
25-;
O-~•
NO USE
0.0
0.0
• • • • • .,
.,
% 100.0
100-[
75- 7
5 0-:
• • • • • • • • • •. .•.•. .•_ • • • • • • •sa
• • • •_•_•...•_
_ _ -..-r..
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
•••••••
... _._....~fWt
73.2
_.,*,*~_
25.0
1.8
25-~
o-i" • • • • • •'w• •» • • • • • • •_ • • • · • • • •• • • • •_• • • · •_ •___
• • •,.u's_
• • • • • • • • • • ••.•• • • • • · · • •..._•
%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
IV.80
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
~
!
I
I
I
•• • • •• •
.• I1'.-:.'.
I
J\UTOt1ATED COURT SCHEDULING
If'1PACT PROFITAl3LE USEFUL
HILL
ON
TO
NOTIJE
TO
SOCIETY H1PLEt1E~JTOR rUDLIC I11PLEtlEtHED
2.70
2.22
3.14
NU11SER OF REQUIRING APPLICATIONS 1~)70-71
TOTAL
NECESSARY
0.33
1
72-7 1+
75-77
78-80
81-85
:~E'!ER
LATER
100-i
75-i
50-:
.
I
·
·
·
·
·
·
I· •••••••· ••• ••· · •· · · , · .. ···, · •••••, · · ••· · · · · •••~ ·
0- ~
"
% 16.7
0.0
0.0
2.1
8.3
G.3
0.0
0.0
25-~
~wr.""~,~"",, .1n.l_i_,~~',_·,-.~_
DEFHJITE
ASSET
~
100-~
~~=hl······1
')c:;-~
'"..-O-~•
_ ...__ .......
USE FUL
. . . .-.: .. . .
•••••••••••••.J.
-.-~_<'..,..:8I_.-
% 68.8
100-,
75-:
0.0
•••••
_ _ ._ •• ..__... ___
0.0
12.5
'\II!.:..-,.r.....·"IIf:._·"'_.""~-':·r.M,·."A'''''~'''''''',!J.'''':'SW-"!II~:"I
,......
1
• ••••• ' ••••••• ~ ••••••
..
~~ur:~·~
·~'~r_·~_.-~~<
52.1
4.2
...........,.•
0.0
~ft,.;s:,.
0.0
50-~
25-t ,
~
o-u
•••••• I
· . ·....
· ·~
· • • • • · · •..........
· ·______
· · · · · ,.~~..--:,..,
· · · · ·__
· • .........-...,.~.-MIF._.........~.,...,. ....
....~.,
·0· •· •· ••••· •· ••· · · · · ·
~
8.3
%
SOliE US f:
100-~
25-jj
•
__. .
0- L
•••••••I
ft
~
%
NO USE
0.0
2.1
6.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
75-["
50-~
TOTAL
0.0
1 oa-t
4.2
___
. . . '.
• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • ., • aa
•
_"!..--_:~_._~
0.0
0.0
2.1
·_..-..~~
0.8
,. • · • · .,
0.0
2.1
0.0
1
75-:
1......
50- F
25-f
••••••
EI
J
• , .::..:':.: .. :::._~.:.
0- 1-.
_~:":'::':' .. ::...~,______
_ • • •• •_..:.
% 97.9
0.0
0.0
18.8
66.7
10.4
2.1
0.0
100-i
75-.
50-~
25-~
0-1r...___
· · · · · · ·_______
· · · · · · · · · · · · ·.-..=._
· · · · · ·.-,-....-.....
······················· ········
S'
%
2.1
0.0
____
0.0
0; _ _ . . . . ._ _ _ _ _ _ . _ _ _ . . - . . :
0.0
IV.81
2.1
0.0
0.0
_
_
...
~
0.0
AUTm1ATEO FI LE CAPTURE
H1PACT PROFITABLE USEFUL
ON
TO
TO
SOCIETY I~1 PL Et1 ENTOR PUBLIC
2.09
2.56
2.31
(
NUMBER OF
REQUI~ING
TOTAL
HILL
NOT BE
H1PLE~~ENTEO
0.41.1
APPLICATIONS - 3
1970-71 72-74
75-77
78-80
81-85
LATER
NEVER
'NECESSARY 100-".
2~~11······1
-~t~
O_ft
L
I
0,
-0
DEFItJlTE
ASSET
100-~
75-~
50-~
2r-;-~J
./
I.
o-~
=Wl._
71.3
%
1~~=~
0.0
a_I..
0.0
I······.
36.8
1.8
_ • ••••• , •••••••
.__
=
27.5
4.7
0.6
I ......•
• • • •• • • • • • • • • • • • • • •• • • • • • • •
_____
25.7
•••••• ,
......
••••• ·1
~
USEFUL
.••••••••••••••••••••
.~
0.0
___
. ___
E ._
. _. . ._ _ _ _ _ _
0.0
O~O
2.9
• • ••• •• ••• •• ••
6.4
0.6
..._ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
_ _
.--·_.~,
15.8
50-r
25-L
o-l·
· ·__
· · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · . · · · · ·_· · · · · · · · · · . · · ·
L · · · · · · · ·-..
~.
0,
0.6
-0
sor1E USE
0.0
0.0
~
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.6
0.0
100-r
75-~
50-~
25-n
_2 _
o-rL· · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · ·_
· · ·.
· · · · · ·_· · · · · ·_· · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · ·
TOTAL
1.8
%
1~~=~1······1
50- r
~
25-,;
O-~H
NO USE
%
100-~
0.0
0.0
0.0
••••••••••••
••• •••••
___.
99.4
0.0
0.0
1.8
0.0
0.6
1.2
I- . · · · · · · · · · · ·"1 ••••••
39.8
43.9
12.9
0.0
I ...... .
1.2
75-:
50-~
25-~
O-~ • • • • •••• • • •••••••••••• • • • • •• • • • • • • • • • • •• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
-
..
%
0.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
('
IV.82
0.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
AUTOttATED f1ANUFACTURING ENGINEERING PROGRM1
1~1PACT
PROFITADLE USEFUL
\JI LL
ON
NOT BE
TO
TO
SOCIETY H1PLEt1ENTOR PUI3LIC It-1PLEt1ENTED
1.63
NUMBER OF
3.19
APPLICATIONS,- 1
REQUIRIt~G
... _
TOTAL
NECESSARY
1
~~='I·
50-~
25-,
O--z'
0.56
1.75
1970-71 72-74
75-77
LATER
NEVER
I
.
,
• • • • • • I ••••• •••••••••
• • • • • • • • • • • • • •. • • • • • •
._.~"",."'."",:~~",,,,~,,,,,,,,,_
% 86.3
100-:
0.0
........
,,,-,,~_
0.0
2.0
__._.~,....,...~
72.5
9.8
,.,..--..,.e;~".,,.
2.0
... _ ....
~_.
0.0
75-~
50-~
25-~
0-
':II!
,
•
!--
9,,)
USEFUL
81-85
I· ·--··I '
I
~
DEFINITE
/\S5 ET
78-80
•
•
•
•
•
,
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
~"---~..,,..,...-
0.0
11.8
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
____
0.0
0.0
I ••. •••I •••. •••••••••. ••••••.
.== ___ - ----~- ....- .......... .,-------.~.'II
,..,-'*' _ _
11. 8
0.0
0.0
0.0
100-r
75-!
50-L
•
25-~
O-l· ·························--·-·-····-············· -··-··· "
/
_
%
SOi1E USE
100-~
. •.
_,~.
2.0
_
0.0
__
ww.•'
0.0
~_~
2.0
0.0
0.0
_ _" " . '____
0.0
""~"~';;e:
...:~
0.0
75-~
50-:
25-t
'
o-~L· · · • · ·._._
· · · ·.......
· · ·~_~-.
• · · · · · · · · · · · ·_· ·....
· ·=-..--...._~
• · · · · · · · ·___
· · ·~
· · · .........
· · ·:......·~_;._
· • •...• · · · · ·
.-::.B'..:;_....
%
TOTAL
1
0.0
~tji··I· ·····1
0- _.
0.0
0.0
0.0
'I· ····-I
.
.,__ :..:..:..:. • • • • • • • • • , • • • • •• _,.
% 100.0
NO USE
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
......*., ·a· · · ••::..:::.:.,.::,.....
'
84.3
9.8
2.0
0.0
100-;
75-i
50-1
25-
0-, •_ • • • • • •. .•_ •. .•. • • • •_• _
•_
• •. _•. .• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •;-.r;
• • • • .. • • • • • • • •. .• .•:11
~
%
0.0
_~
0.0
._.~_.~
0.0
IV.B3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
I
AUTOt1ATED PERIODICAL PUBLISHHlG
H1PACT
PROFITABLE
USEFUL
\JILL
TO
TO
NOT BE
SOCIETY IHPLEt,IEtJTOR rUOLIC IItPLEt'1ErHED
em
1. 116
2.00
3.21
NUt-1BER OF REQUIRING APPLICATIONS NECESS/\P.Y 100-~
75-t
50-:
2 5- ~
o-~
TOTAL
%
DEFINITE
ASSET
..
~...
1
1970-71 72-74
I· · · · · ·'1
~._
0.10
•· · ••· · · · · · · · · · · · · · ·
___
23.4
l~t!I······1
75-77
~~:C'I~'
0.0
_ _"
0.0
0.0
USEFUL
81-85
I· · · · · -,
..--.:. .r.e.-*,..._ _ _ _
~
LATER
IJEVER
· · · · · · · • · • • · '. · · · · • · · ·
____
23.4
~~
0.0
__
~.
___ ,l.": ...
0.0
....
~
0.0
I...... ,
25-~
0-
78-80
~....
••••••••••••••••••••
••••••, ••••••••••••••
" _ ..
=.._ - - - - - - - - - _ . _ - - - - - - - - , , . . , _ . _ - - - _....
--" ----"'-,-,--
% 68.1
100-1
75-,
50-[
0.0
0.0
2.1
57.4
6.4
2.1
0.0
25-~
(
•
0- ~ • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • , • • • • • • , • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • ••
~.
%
SettE USE
100-~
___ ~,_( . . . . . ~ _ _ _ ... _ _
6.4
0.0
0.0
_
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _•
0.0
•
I
4.3
. _.........._ - - . . - _ . - - . .
2.1
0.0
0.0
75-c
50- r
25-!
"
0- ~..-....-..
• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •=_
• • •__
• • • • •__
• • • • • • •- • • '. • • • •*•___
• • • •=iJWNWPO;
• • •__
• •_ •
~_._~-.__
~
%
TOTAL
0.0
~ ~= ~ I· ·····1
0.0
0.0
0.0
1 50-~
26:=1
•••. . . ••. . . . . . . •. . •.
;.....•.____&1=== a u
Ii
%
NO USE
100-!
97.9
0.0
I· ··.-·1
0.0
0.0
0.0
. ..... , ............. .
___....
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _..
___
..__________
"'_ _,.,_
....
0.0
2.1
"~
85.1
0.0
8.5
...
~
... _
.....
~
.•
Q.O
2.1
75-1
25-1
0-1f-..
• • •_____
• • • • • • • • • ..•_.-.:8I
• • •___
• • • • • • • • • • • •_•_• •....•,___
• • • • • • _• _
• •_•-•- .•_•_•. .•. .•_._
• •••• • • • • • •
50-'
"-'_~
2.1
0.0
~_WJl=-:~
0.0
0.0
(~
IV.84
~.
2.1
0.0
I
0.0
_.
0.0
•
CAl COURSE PREPARATION LANGUAGE
It-1PACT PROFITABLE USEFUL
ON
TO
TO
SOCIETY H1PLEt1ENTOR PUBLIC
3.36
2.87
\HLL
NOT BE
H1PLEt~ENTED
0.20
3.56
NUMBER OF REQUIRING APPLICATIONS - 3
NECESSARY
100-~
TOTAL
1970-71 72-74
75-77
81-85
78-80
LATER
tlEvER
.
75-,
~~~I·······I
I······.
......
0- L...
~ .._. ______
• • • •.......
• •_____
• • • • •..______
• • • • • • •......
• •_..__.___, .._____
• •...__
• •-..-.......
• • • • • •__
• • .,.•____
• • • • •..___
• •.....
•
I.
DEFINITE
ASSET
% 48.5
100-;
75-~
0.0
0.0
4.8
28.5
11.5
3.6
,
.............
1
.::.:,::...-.::. ··::.:..:.::..:::. ___,_...:.' ·
r:::O '
0.0
~5=~1······1
0-
t_
%
USEFUL
100-1
75-:
50-u
I· •
44.8
0.0
0.0
1.2
21.2
18.8
•
, :
3.6
•
•
=
0.0
25-P.
0- ij I
SOt,1E US!:
• • • • • • , ':':" • • • • • • • • • • .,. • • • • • I • • • • • • • , , , • , • • • • • • • • • • ... • • ._:
3.6
%
100-~
0.0
0.0
-0.0
0.0
0.0
3.0
0.0
0.6
0.0
75-~
5o-r.
25-~
~~
0- • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
%
TOTAL
1.8
1~~=~1······1
0.0
'.
••••••••••••••••••••
o-~
o.
•
'0
NO USE
100-~
0.0
1...... ,
50-~
25-~
~
1.8
98.8
0.0
•
0.0
6.1
54.5
a
0.0
······1 • •••••••••••••
30.3
7.9
n
75-l
50-
2
0.0
.'
0.0
'
6=• ........................................................ .
li
•
%
1.2
0.0
0.6
0.0
IV.85
0.6
0.0
0.0
0,0
CAl COURSES
H1PACT PROFITABLE USEFUL
ON
TO
TO
SOCIETY IMPLEMENTOR. PUBLIC
(
2.46
2.96
HILL
NOT BE
n1PLE~1E"ITED
0.28
3.17
NUMBER OF REQUIRING APPLICATIONS - 3
NECESSARY
100-~
TOTAL
1970-71 72-74
75-77
78-80
81-85
LATER
NEVER
75-!
50-9
2 5- ~ •• • • • • •.•
o-e
.
.........•..........•..... -,_ ..... , .....•.••.....
1 _ _
DEFINITE
ASSET
%
100-';
17.7
0.0
1.3
75-~
50-~I······1
25-~~
0-"M
(I.
'0
USEFUL
0.0
100-P
75-~
50-~
5.7
1.3
0.0
I- · · ---I _• _••• I
• •••sa
••••••••••••••••
61.4
9.5
0.0
0.0
• • • • • • • • • •_ •.....
• •~
•
_.
38.6
16.5
3.8
1.3
.
25-;' • • • • • •
o-'il
I •....•....•••••••••. 1 • ••••• ••••••••••••••••••••••
•
Sot·1E USE
% 17.1
100-;
0.0
0.0
0.6
7.6
7.0
1.3
0.6
75-~
50-~
25-~
o-~I , • • • • • • • · • • · • • • • • • • • · • • • · • • · • · • • • • • • • • • • • • • · • • • · · · • · • · · · ·
2.5
%
TOTAL
1~~~1·····
·1
50-!
0.0
0.0
0.0
.
25-1
0-"
%
100-~
0.0
98.7
0.0
0.0
3.2
0.6
0.0
1...... 1
······1 .
• • • • • • • • - • •• • •• • • • • •
•
, NO USE
1.9
• • • • • • •• • • • • • •
57.6
29.1
7.0
1.9
75-~
50-~
25-~
o-!• • • • • • •• • - • • • -• --• • • • · • • • • • • • • • • • · • • • • · • • • • •• • • • •L.• · • • _. - · •
%
0.0
0.0
0.0
(
IV.86
0.0
1.3
0.0
0.0
CAR!£RPLMlNUG LMM,.lJAGE
H1PACT PROFITAElLE USEFUL
ON
TO
TO
SOCIETY It-IPLEr'1ENTOR PUBLIC
2.34
2.37
2.35
HILL
NOT BE
I~1PLEtlENTED
.. ~
0.24
NUMBER OF REQUIRING APPLICATIONS - 1
NECESSARY
TOTAL
1970-71 72-74
75-77
l~~=il······1
50-t' .
25 -
0- C-.__
~
DEFINITE
ASSET
81-85
1······1
III
,
78-80
•
· · · • • · · •__
· • • •au• • • • • • · •_ _ _ .........
• _____
% 66.7
100-:
75-:
0.0
0.0
2.0
31.4
•
•
•
•
LATER
•
NEVER
I ••••••
, · · · · .". ·
. ._ _ _ _ .
.._~
19.6
11.8
...~-.
2.0
.
50-~
I' · · · · '1
,
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
•
•
•
·
•
·
•
•
•
•
•
·
•
•
•
·
•
·
·
·
l__
___.__
___...... =--......· · • • ·.....· · · • · • · · ·
25-r
~
0-.
~
%
USEFUL
100-1
_~~
23.5
0.0
.--.~.
0.0
0.0
~
7.8
7.8
'-=';IIl~~._,"
3.9'
3.9
75-t
50-1
25....,~
O
~,
•••••• ,
-IiI
%
SOt·1E USE
_=_...
_
.
• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •~
• • • • • • • • • • •
_.___
7.8
0.0
0.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
0.0
2.0
10o-t
75-:
50-~
25-r
0-. ·························································
:.........-~
%
TOTAL
2.0
1~~=~1"""1
50-.
25o-f~
r... _
-~
NO USE
........._ .._..--.-_-=-~_SIIII';...,~..,...._.
0.0
0.0
0.0
.
.
............. ,......
.",~,~.~_,.
% 100.0
100-'
0.0
_'~.__
0.0
0.0
__
'-"''''_'_._''~~'''-''*-ta
0.0
2.0
I......• • • • • • • I • ••••• I
0,0
. ..... ,
.__ ~~______• ....
...,...,__,~~~.:. .
3.9
41.2
29.4
17.G
7.8
75-!
50-,
25-,
O-nL
· · ·-__
· · · ·.,. ·_· •·_· · · · '. · · · · · · · · · · ·we· · ·_ · · · · ·.,._· · · ·....·_~'_
· · · ·.......
· · ·_·•••· ·;.......
· · ·~
· · ·..
%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Iv.a,
'\
/
COHt1ERCIAL DATA PROCESSING APPLICATION PROGRM1S
HIPACT
USEFUL
PROF I TAU LE
HILL
ON
TO
tJOT HE
TO
SOCIETY H'IPLEI1ENTOR PU[3LIC H1PLEt,IEtlTED
2.9 LI
0.05
1.95
3.52
(
NU~1BER
1
OF REQU I RING APPLI CAT IOiJS TOTAL
NECESSARY
1970-'(1 72-74
l~~=il······1
50- r
.......• " .. "
2~=!
_ _ _ _ _ _.._
. 'S' . . ._~ . .
%
DEFINITE
ASSET
75-77
100-~
92.3
0.0
78-80
81-85
LATER
t,lEVER
1...... 1
" .. ", ........... " ...... ..
,.z •
9.G
15.4
0.0
0.0
1.9
75-!
50-~
25-:
O ~ I·· • • • • I .
~. ___--=-~_-..-._.....~_
%
7.7
0.0
1.9
1.9
--.
USEFUL
...............................................
.
_ ..._..---.,..
... . . . . _
. ..
__.I~·'JI_
;..~~
1.9
100-~
1.9
0.0
~
0.0
75-~
50-~
25-1
(
O-Mn • • • • •__
• •~-.-..--..
• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •_• •~
• • • • • • • •.,_
• • • • • • • • • • • • • •_._~_
• • •....
• •.,..,•......
• --=
• •..•',..
%
sm1E USE
100-~
75-~
50-~
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
25-!
o~tc, • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •_• • • •_• • • • • • • • • • • • •......
• • • • •. • • • • • • •.._...aw
• • •.......
• •".
.~_
0.0
0.0
100-;1······1
75-i
50-.
%
TOTAL
25-,
O-~'
• • • • • •
11.-_
NO USE
I
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
•
0.0
1......
1
.
•••••• I
, ••••••
~·~~i'. _ _ _..-.-..-I:'W:_-,....~·-.-:~
% 100.0
100-:
0.0
_. _
11.5
67.3
•
•••••
....... ·_ ...=
17.3
3.8
I ••••••••••••••
._______ ~.._.:w_~-.:,....__:IiI
0.0
0.0
75-~
50-L
25-t
o-tr.· · · · · · · ·.•·-.r..,....,_.""".
· · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · ·. .· · · · · · · · · · · · · · · . · · · · · · ·
~
%
0.0
~1.,__
0.0
0.0
0.0
IV.88
0.0
W'r~, ...." . .. . . . ._ ....-:~, .... _.:I
0.0
0.0
0.0
COt1PLEX LAND USAGE MODEL
H1PACT PROF I TAB LE USEFUL
HILL
OU
TO
NOT BE
TO
SOCIETY IMPLEf-1ENTOR PUB LI C I t·1PLEt,1ENTED
0.82
2.63
2.65
1.77
/
NUMBER OF REQUIRING APPLICATIONS - 1
NECESSARY 100-1
TOTAL
1970-71 72-74
75-77
78-80
I.
·
·
·
·
·
1
-I
75-;
hO '
:J
25-
81-85
,
___,____
%
68.8
0.0
LIl.7
18.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
8.3
100-,
75-,
50-:
25-~ J• • • • •.,
O-~~
• • • • • • • • •_• _
• • • • • •• • • • _
•_
• _• -• '••.• • • I . • • • • • • • • • • • • ,
:----.r
' -. . ._
USEFUL
ilEVCP
J· · · · · · I •••••• I ......
0-.r~~~-=w.,_.-~_,·
· . · · · · · • · •......
· ·.-::.~
· · · · ·__
· · ~~......
· · .. · · · .
DEFINITE
ASSET
LATER
%
100-~
U __
22.9
1.$
0.0
0.0
0.0
_
0.0
..~.
10.4
• . •. .•t _
• _
•
_ _ _ _ _ . .To·
_ ..
10.4
2.1
75-:
50-t
25-,
o-! I
,..... . ___
sonE
%
USE
100-~
__.=___
..
• • • • • • , ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• • • • • • • , •••••••
6.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.1
0.0
0. . . . . . .-
...
0.0
75-i
50-;
25-,
0- ,r: • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
•••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••
._____
L..
______
:____'-"'_.___"'."';____i·'."""
____,__,",_.....___"'...__...____
~
%
TOTAL
1
0.0
~~=~ I· ·····1
~"~
0.0
0.0
50-~
~5 '
"-
-,
0.0
0.0
0.0
.._......
0-,1\"n..
· · · · · · · ·cwo.
···········
__· · · · · · · ·_____
% 97.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.1
52.1
NO USE
0.0
I······. ······1
.
~.......--
0.0
w::;_._~
• • •
• • "
=._. __._.._.........
~
33.3
10.~
100-:
75-i
50-,
25-.
0-'L.:~
· · · · · · ·___
· · ·.· · · · · · · · · · · ·......
· · · · · · · · ·._
· ·...1":'JI_,.
· · · · · ____
· · · ·"..........-:......--..-...-:.
· · · · · · · · · ·...·..--···
2.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
lV.89
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.1
COMPLEX SCHEDULING AND ALLOCATION ALGORITHMS
IMPACT PROFITAf3LE USEFUL
WILL
ON
TO
TO
NOT BE
SOCIETY I t·'PLEtlEt·ITOR PUBLIC H1PLEt1ENTED
2.81
2.32
2.72
0.59
(
NUMBER OF REQUIRING APPLICATIONS - 8
NECESSARY
TOTAL
100-~
1970-71 72-74
75-77
78-80
81-85
LATER
NEVEr.
75-~
5O-~1······1
25-~;
O-t;
~
DEFINITE
ASSET
. ..______
• • •==-....
• • • • •_
• •.• • • • • • •.___
•••
46.0
90
I······. ...... I
0.0
1.0
0.0
5°-~1······'
100-~
0.0
75-~
50-t
O-~I······I
--6.3
"~
%
100-~
75-~
50-~
25-~
a...
• · • • • • • • • • • · • • • • • • · =·_ _ ,... ____ • . •• '_At • • · ·= ·__
· • · • ·...•=~
· ·•
25-~
0.0
23.6
_-
17.8
0.5
....................
.
.. I······.--.....................
-
:a_
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.0
2.3
-
%
1.0
#
1.5
1~~:~1······1
50-~
25-1
O-l
% 100.0
NO USE
2.0 .
0.0
•••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• •••••••
O-~
TOTAL
0.3
I······, ......•
_ _........wa
46.2
96
Sot-1E USE
?.o
16.3
.-:~.-a
75-t
0- ~.~
(
26.4
__.~
100-"
25-l
USEFUL
• • • • • •.••,..• • • • • • •
_._~._
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
I······.
.............•.• ::. :.
.
0.0
0.0
3.3
53.0
1.0
•••••
37.4
0.5
_.
o~o
·1 ......•.......
5.5
0.8
100-"
75-~
50-I'
26:
.......................................................... .
~L
%
__/U##iU##_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _IU##_ _ _ _ _ _
0.0
0.0
____iU##iU##_ _iU##_ _ _ _iU##. . ._ _ _ _#iU#_ _ _ _. .IU##....._ _ _ _IU##_
iU##IU##~~
0.0
IV.90
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
DESIGN LANGUAGE
IHPACT
PROF I T;\[3 LE USEFUL
HILL
Te)
I~OT BE
TO
SOCI:::TY IilPLEllEtJTOR PU8LIC Ii lP LEn[;NTED
on
1.G3
iHJt1~ER
3.49
1.05
OF RCQUIRIiJG /\PPLICATIOiJS -
1)'{0-71 '/2-7 1•
TOTAL
;JECESSr\RY 100-~
75-;
h -"
250-~
:J
r
J-
II
75-77
•
• • • • • • • • • • • • • , ••
l......-......:..: t ........w: ...JIR;:-.r.. ..
0.0
100-~
LATE r:
81-35
70-GO
fJEVER
,······1
.
r
Ii
.
•••
• • • • • • • • • • • • • •
L . .,:,.· • . ·. . . . . _ _":',,: . •,.,t;j.h. . .
0.0
4.1
.
•••• •••
_~_·C·_'.""' __ .~"'IIIr_.~"'·"""""'lIt· ...:....... _~.tU ......,.!:_:'1II
5'{ .1
10.2
,-..at ..""
:).0
2.0
75-,
50-~
')r~_ "
'-:; lil······,
0-'
...........
USEFUL
1
I· ·····1
·~o
IJEFHHTE
ASSET
0.29
~
·············,······, ...... , ·····················
.......'...,_' __ ...
% 22.4
100-i
0.0
...'___
_'_~~._'_,.~
0.0
4.1
..:... ..--..'....
~,
~
18.4
.•-_j_WIt".:..••.
0.0
0.0
_'._~,.
....
;_;ww>..
0.0
75-&
50..... :
25-~
.
0-·IE • • • • • • • •____
• •• •a_a:
• • • •_ • • •_ •'_"~
• • • • •_•_•~""'I_
• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •.~.,·tt·
• • • • •..-r.a......,,~
• • • • • • • •.....
•
%
SOf\1E USE
100-~
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
75-_
50-~
2
6=l.:.: ..................................................... .
__ = .... __ ......'.___
%
TOTAL
2.0
1~~:~1······1
50-:
2~:!n
NO USE
% 98.0
100-j
0.0
__
0.0
0.0
.............•......
____
0.0
2.0
8.2
__
0.0
0.0
.....
_~'l1
0.0
1······1·
......•...............
... _.
0.0
__
_~.~._
77.6
10.2
2.0
0.0
75-,
~~:i
I
I·
0...:.1· ••• •••• ••••••••••••• ••• •• •••••• •• ••••••• ••••••• ••••••_.w
•• •.
%
2.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.0
0.0
0.0
,
.e.
IV.91
_
•
&.,..~
DETER~1
I tHST I C HODELS
II'1PACT
USEFUL
\11 LL
PROFITA£3LE
TO
TO
NOT DE
SOCIETY I11PLEt1EtJTOR PUOLI C I tlPLEMENTED
mJ
2.27
2. 21~
2.92
Nu/,mER OF REQUIRHJG APPLICATIONS -
i
7550-~
25-~
O-~'
ASSET
78-30
81-85
1······1 ••••••
, ••••••
....... _ .....:; ..-,.If'..._-:..._ ..at::-.:_ . .
,.._~
% 74.0
100-r
0.0
0.0
_..,.....~
...._ _
8.0
:e~...-.~
52.0
....
L/\TER
I
~lEVER
..............
......-:_~~
14.0
___ .___ ....... _'..
0.0
.,
II'"_"~.
0.0
75-~
:>,.. 0.-~I
2t: ~
::>-. , •••••• ,
0- L
~
USEFUL
75-77
l······1 .............
...._ ..
DEFHlITE
1
1970-71 72-74
TOTAL
1JECESSARY 100-~
0.14
I · .. · · .
:_1r.'1r._. . . . . .,__._ ..·..,.......
___. . . ~.. _,•.,..• • • • • • • · · • · • • • · • · · ·
% 22.0
100-;
75-11
50-:
0.0
25-~
•
____
0.0
I
· ~'
· • · ·.......
· ·~~
· · • ·......·-.r-...
· ·__•~~._
· · ·......
~ ___ . _ ._ _ .-: .....·_·· _·.....
'7 ..... -..::. . .,. .
4.0
1G.O
2.0
0.0
6.0
0-, ·························==______
·······.·____
········_·__··,...·........,···_____
·······....·
sorlE USE
%
100-r
~'W!""'.
2.0
au
__
0.0
0.0
~
2.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
75-!
50-!
,,),--"
o-~,· · · · · · · · · · · · · · • · · • • · · • · • ·__·.· · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · • · · · · · · · · · · · •
,- ::>
~
~
..
~~~.,...
0.0
%
TOT/\L
2 ~= ~
•
~_
-_~~_.1II:
0.0
100-·1······1
75-t
50-~
100-,
75-:
..
,~
__ ......
0.0
_'~_,:a
-..t ......."'.. ,__
0.0
=..-r..........
ax._
0.0
••••••
I......
we •
•
0.0
'~.~"."'~~'S",
0.0
I..............
:w~~-a:
63.0
0.0
._=.~.--
0.0
I
.............,..~ ...
0.0
%
NO USE
...
___
16.0
..
.~
"'...-.::4II"~..-..
0.0
0 •.0
50-~
26=1 ........................................................
.
....____.....
n . . .__. . . .______~______. .__. . . . . . _~. .____. .____. .___.~~". .~~.
n.~._
%
2.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
IV.92
2.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
DYNAMIC SCHEDULING OF EDUCATIONAL FACILITIES
IMPACT PROFITABLE USEFUL
WIL.L
ON
TO
NOT BE
TO
SOCIETY IMPLEMENTOR PUBLIC IMPLEMENTED
2.23
0.23
2.34
2.77
NUMBER OF REQUIRING APPLICATIONS - 1
TOTAL 1970-71 72-74
NECESSARY 100-1
75- .
5025- , ....... .
0-
16.0
1007550250-
SOME USE
1007550250-
0.0
0.0
4.0
81-85
54.0
e
0.0
0.0
4.0
,......,
••••••••••••••••••••
% 26.0
100-1
0.0
0.0
2.0
6.0
6.0
I······1 .............,......I .... . -.
%
USEFUL
78-80
LATER
NEVER
•••••••••••••, · ••••••••••••••••••••••••· •••· · ••••
%
DEFINITE
ASSET
75-77
34.0
,......•
0.0
0.0
•••••• I . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
14.0
0.0
2.0
••••••••••• •••• ••••••
22.0
2.0
0.0
0.0
.
~~I
0- ••••••••.•..••••••••••••.•.•....•.•••..•••.•.•.•••••••••.
e
%
TOTAL
2.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1~~:
50- 1······1
\
NO USE
100-1
7550250-
%
······1
•••••••••••••, ••••••
0.0
98.0
0.0
10.0
0.0
0.0
62.0
24.0
• • • •• • • · • • • • • •.
0.0
2.0
........ ...............................................
~
2.0
~
0.0
0.0
0.0
IV.93
J
2.0
1...... 1
25-
0- ,
0.0
2.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
HUMAN RESOURCES SIMULATION MODEL
II I LL
IMPACT PROFITABLE USEFUL
NOT BE
TO
TO
ON
SOCIETY IMPLE~lENTOR PUBLI C 1I1PLErtENTED
2.18
1.26
1.50
2.95
(
NUMBER OF REQUIRING APPLICATIONS - 1
TOTAL
NECESSARY
1970-71 72-74
170~-;1······1
56:!
26:::1
'I.
.
... __
00 0
00000000 0000 0
.,..~~_--._.~......
c
0.0
'0
DEFItJITE
ASSET
75-77
0
78-80
81-85
LATER
flEVER
·····.,
.
00 0000 0 0 0 0 . 0 0 0 0 0 . 1
000 00
o.
_'_'.~~-':t-.-.~_~_..:~·_:ac;·_~_~'!J
0.0
0.0
0.0
100-ij
75-,
50-;
25-;-
4.3
61.7
19.1
., ...... ,• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • , ...... , • • • •.• • •
O-~
~~_
USEFUL
%
100-~
. . . S i. . . .~_ _ _ _..,_ _.......· _. . . ~~.........~· _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _,__._·.,,,.~, ......... .-..:1
10.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.1
8.5
0.0
75-t
50-'
25-.
o-a;r..•__
• • • • •__
• •,._
• • • • • • • •_• • • • • • •_-.-__
• • • • • • .• • • • • • • • • • •_• • • '•__
•· •••••••••••
~.
SOME USE
%
100-i
75-t
50-'
25-,
~l._I111_~_
2.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.1
0.0
0-1n· · · · · · · ·.....· · · · · · · · · · · ·•· · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · ·
~.
TOTAL
0.0
%
0.0
1~~:11······1
0.0
50-~
25-i
0-,
%
NO USE
0-
%
0.0
0.0
_ _...........
0.0
0.0
0.0
1...... 1
.
•••••• ,
·· · · · · · · ··.· · · · ·· · · ·· ·· ·. · ·, ·· ··· ·
.'-------------------------------------------------------------------0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
6.4
19.1
97.9
100-1
7550-
25-
~...,~...
1F;w:l
....... .. ............................................... .
'
2.1
0.0
0.0
(~
IV.94
0.0
0.0
2.1
0.0
0.0
IMPROVED SIMULATION TECHNIQUES
IMPACT PROFITABLE USEFUL
ON
TO
TO
SOCIETY I MPLEt-1ENTOR PUBLIC
2.31
2.61
3.23
WILL
i"fJT BE
IMPLE~1ENTED
0.17
NUMBER OF REQUIRING APPLICATIONS - 3
NECESSARY
100-~
TOTAL
. .............•..••..
50.7
%
l~~I~J······1
,
%
0.0
1.3
78-80
36.2
3.9
23.0
.
•••••••••••••••
0.0
3.9
81-85
LATER
NEVER
,······ ••••••• 1·
. . · · · .. · · · _. · · · · ·
-• • • • • • I·· ····
2:>-"
0-"
USEFUL
75-77
~6-il······1
25-6
0-1L
DEFItHTE
ASSET
1970-71 72-74
13.2
14.5
21.7
0.7
0.0
·····-·..............
.
~~
4.6
0.0
'0.0
100-1
75-j
50-~
.
0-1. •...... ,......•............. ,...........................
.
-_..
25-'
10.5
%
sm1E USE
0.0
2.6
0.7
100-f
1.3
0.7
0.0
75-~
50-~
25-
0- •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••
TOTAL
2.0
%
100-;1···
75-1;
50-~
···1
25-i
0-
NO
USE
%
0.0
0.0
1.3
••••••••
• • • • • • I.
••••••
••• ••• 1
1
100-~
0.0
99.3
0.0
7.9
22.4
39.5
0.0
•••
0.7
0.0
····1 • ••••••••••• ••
27.6
2.0
0.0
~6:1
25-.
0- ••••••••••••••••••••••••.•••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••
%
0.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
IV.9S
0.0
0.0
0.7
0.0
INTERACTIVE
~10DELING
AND SIMULATION SYSTEM
IMPACT PROFITABLE USEFUL
TO
ON
TO
SOCIETY IMPLEMENTOR PUBLIC
(
IMPLE~1ENTE[)
2.18
3.24
1.93
WILL
NOT BE
0.16
NUMBER OF REQUIRING APPLICATIONS - 7
NECESSARY 100-~
TOTAL
1970-71 72-74
75-77
78-80
81-85
LATER
NEVER
75-1
~~ f1······1
t'
0- M
%
DEFINITE
ASSET
100-~
34.8
USEFUL
0.0
~6-II······1
250-
54.5
%
••••• •••• •• ••
t •••• ••I
0.6
• • • • • • •• • •• • •
7.8
• • • • • • I • • • • • •
13.6
•••••••••••• •• ,
21.7
0.0
20.6
I
•••
11.9
e.:.::.: ·· ····
0.9
0.0
• • • • • • I •••••.••......
0.0
8.7
0.0
100-1
755025-1
0- •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••
(
%
SOME USE
1
10075-8
50- g
7.2
0.0
0.9
1.7
4.1
0.0
0.3
0.3
•
21:::1 ..............•......•.••••..•...•.•.••.•.................
TOTAL
l~i-II.~:~ ..
50-I
250-
%
NO USE
I
0.0
0.9
0.9
0.0
8
•••••
••••••••
••• •••••••••• '
0.0
4.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
.... .. ,
• •••••• • • • • • • •
32.2
39.1
20.6
1.2
0.3
100-1
755025-
0- • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
%
0.0
0.3
IV.'6
0.6
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.0
MED I CAL TEST ANAL YS IS PROGRM-1S
IMPACT PROFITABLE USEFUL
WILL
ON
TO
TO
NOT BE
SOCIETY IMPLEt1ENTOR PUBLIC IMPL.EMENTED
0.10
2.50
3.12
3.62
NUMBER OF REQUIRING APPLICATIONS - 1
NECESSARY 100-"
TOTAL
1970-71 72-74
75-77
78-80
LATER
81-85
NEVER
75-1
50-'
25- ~, ____________
•••••••
. . ._______
~________________________________N___
..
_____________~
__
•
0-
DEFINITE
ASSET
%
100-
.
20.0
0.0
0.0
2.0
......
1
50- 1
.
25 .
,_
12.0
.
75-
0- .
USEFUL
•••••••••••••••••••• , ••••••••••••• , ••••••••••••••
I· ·····1
.
• • ••• • • • • • • • • , • • • • • •
% 68.0
100-1
0.0
0.0
4.0
50.0
0.0
6.0
0.0
,
• ••••••
••••••••••••••
..=___
-=e,
14.0
0.0
_
_
0.0
75-
5025-
0-,'······, ••••••••••••• ••• ••••• •••••• •••••••••••••••••••••.
~
./
Sot1E USE
%
1~~:1
50-
8.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
6.0
2.0
0.0
0.0
25-
o-!n• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •___
•• • • • • • • • • •• • · • • •• •• • · •· • • •• • •
_.-.t~
TOTAL
%
0.0
1~~:~1······1
50-
0.0
0.0
%
I...... ,
• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • e· •
96.0
0.0
0.0
6.0
0.0
0.0
• •• ~ •• I
.
0--
100-
0.0
.
25-
NO USE
0.0
•
0.0
.
• • • • • • • • • • • • • •
68.0
22.0
0.0
0.0
75-'
50250- •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••
4.0
0.0
2.0
IV."
0.0
2.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
.
~
---
.......
H1PACT PROFITABLE
USEFUL
HILL
ml
TO
TO
NOT BE
SOCIETY IHPLEt1ENTOR PUBLIC H1PLEt1ENTED
(
2.68
1.51
1.98
:WtmER OF REQUIRING APPLICATIONS NECESSARY 100-~
TOTAL
0.53
1
1970-71 72-74
75-77
73-80
81-85
LATER
NEVER
75-,
50-~
2 5-".......
.
O-~
' . • • • • • • • • • • • • •.J_• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • I ••• • • • • • • • • • • •
•
% 18.6
l _ _ _. . - . - .. . . . .
DEFHJITE
ASSET
..",~·
:e:_.__
.... - . - . · - . - · , _ _ _ _ _ _
0.0
0.0
0.0
7.0
100-;
75-'
__._. . . . . . . . . .,. .
9.3
r·····1
0-,
····················
~_
0.0
I ..... . ,······1 ......•
t
5 025-~1
~
1M _
USEFUL
~'
. . ___ . _ _ _ . . . . - . . , _
% 72.1
100-;
75-1
50-i
0.0
_ .
~
0.0
0.0
18.6
44.2
o-L~..:.:..'_·_·~ ···················s· · ·· · , · ·· ·· ·
SOi'1E USE
%
100-,'
7.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.3
4.7
I. • •
.~.:
,~'
2.3
r
·······
~~
9.3
25-"
. . ..._.--.:... _
0.0
• .:':'':':'':''
0.0
0.0
~6=1;
25-
0- •••••••••••••••••••••••••••• "•••••••••••••••••••••••••••••
r..-_.~__
%
TOTAL
0.0
1~~=~1······1
50-,'
25-'
O-ia
_
%
NO USE
0.0
_____
0.0
=
0.0
• • • • • • • • • • • • • •=• • • • • •
0.0
0.0
_
0.0
_
0.0
__,as_
0.0
_
__
0.0
I······ I· · · · · ., ......,
___ •
0.0
__
58.1
• • • • • •_•
2.3
100-,
75-£
50-
25-
0- • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
%
2.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
(
IV.g8
0.0
0.0
0.0
I,
MULTI-NATIONAL LANGUAGE .INTERFACE
IHPACT PROFITABLE USEFUL
ON
TO
TO
SOCIETY IHPLEt1ENTOR PUBLIC
2.18
2.95
1.50
~II LL
NOT BE
H1PLE~1ENTED
1.26
NUMBER OF REQUIRING APPLICATIONS - 1
NECESSl\RY
TOTAL
1970-71 72-74
1~~!1······1
O
-~
!If
68.1
DEFINITE
ASSET
78-80
81-85
•
2Wla: _ _
0.0
0.0
.
~~~~~ .-.~
0.0
0.0
100-'I
...
..,~
.
• •
_<._~_
•
......
•
-M'······,
-=-~
%
• •...• • • • • • • • • • •---=---...
••••••••••••••, ••••••
.........,'.....,...
23.4
_.,...~_...
0.0
0.0
•...... ,
• • •__
••••
_",,~~.-::II~""'..iI---'''''
0.0
0.0
4.3
12.8
~'''''
6.4
100-i
75-,
50-;
25-'
0-,L.· · · · · · · · · ·__
···· ·········· ····· ··· ·········
%
100-i
2.1
0.0
75-,
25--
50-_
0.0
0.0
0.0
_-..
e" • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
0.0
2.1
0.0
.
0-1·
•••••••
Is • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •~'-'-'-'
%
2.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.1
0.0
I •
__..-:II
I...... ,
1~~!1~1······1
25-,
0-
NO USE
I
75-1i
0-1"
TOTAL
•
~.iY.I
10.G
25
SOt-IE USE
....
2.1
50-i
USEFUL
~lEVER
LATER
.
'
1...... ,
................................. .
':'k_.-_'.IIIIta"..__...
.... -.-:a..
~
75-77
.
• ••••
• • • • • • * • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • , • • • • ...
*'
..----,-----.----
% ..~--------------------~----------------------------------0.0
0.0
0.0
6.4
0.0
72.3
95.7
100-~
75-j
50-.
25-U
0- ••••••••••••••••••••.••••••
%
0.0
0.0
e" • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
0.0
0.0
2.1
2.1
0.0
IV.9'
':
-
~ATIONWIDE
IMPACT
(
~
SOCIETY
PROFITABLE
TO
IMPLE~1ENTOR
1.50
3.06
.
FREIGHT CAR TRACKING
USEFUL
WILL
NOT BE
TO
PUBLIC IMPLEMENTED
2.55
0.19
NUMBER OF REQUIRING APPLICATIONS - 1
NECESSARY
1~tfl~~~:
11970-71 72-74
75-771~~~~~.181-85
LATER
NEVER
i.
II
25-
•••••• ,
0-
• • • • • • • • •• • • • , • • • • • •
0.0
%
DEFINITE
ASSET
100755025-
0.0
8.3
••••••••••••••
64.6
20.8
4.2
0.0
%
(
100755025-
2.1
0.0
0.0
2.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0- • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
%
SOME USE
1007550250%
TOTAL
100755025-
0.0
0.0
·I ·····1
% 100.0
100-1
755025()--
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
·...................". ....................................
0-
NO USE
~
I
I
0- • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
USEFUL
~
II
0.0
0.0
0.0
• •• •• • •• • •• • • I ••••••
0.0
0.0
8.3
0.0
I······1
66.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
• • • • • •I . . . • • •, •. . . . . .
20.8
4.2
0.0
• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • e· • • • • • • •
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
IV.lOO
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
IMPACT
PROFITABLE USEFUL
HILL
TO
NOT DE
TO
SOCIETY I HPLEt1ENTOR PUBLIC IMPLEHENTED
0.44
3.42
2.75
3.27
ON
NUMBER OF REQUIRING APPLICATIONS - 1
NECESSARY
1 750 O-I~
TOTAL
1970-71 72-74
I. ·····1
75-77
78-80
81-85
LATER
. ,.~.'
NEVER
~~:i
1······t····· .. 1
o-~~~
. ..·.-.-.-.
· •• • ·~.-.• • • · · · • • · • • · • •.. -· . ·.......·,.....-····
- · • • • · ·-_::.
DEFINITE
ASSET
% 89.4
0.0
100-,
75-,
50-.
25-1.., •••••• ,
O-~
r..
_
100-;
0.0
2.1
57.4
....................
~':IU":f_ •• _ . _
0.0
8.5
%
USEFUL
..
, •••••• ,
_•••
0.0
a
.....
0.0
27.7
2.1
....................
.. .
..
8.5
0.0
0.0
_~--=-
0.0
~.
0.0
75-~
0
5 -.
25-1
O-~, • • • • •_• _
• • • •_.• • • • • • • • • • a• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •• • • • • • • • •_•_•• •_• _
•••••
%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
100-1
75-1
50-;
_.~
Sor·1E USE
___.~
25-~
,
-
-
.!"
._~(.\",
o-t · · · · · · ·~.
· · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · ·.......
· ·-.-· ·..~,
· · ·.......· ·'.~
··
%
TOTAL
1
OO-~
75-i
5 0-i
25
0.0
I· ·····1
%
USE
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1...... 1
D······I
~ .....:.:. .......~:.:..
O:l_
NO
0.0
97.9
0.0
0.0
2.1
.... ...:..::..:.:. .:':'::.
66.0
27.7
2.1
8.0
100-i
75-,
50-1
25-'
0- " •__
• • •______
• • • • •,,
• ____
• • • ,,""
• • • • •____
• • •".,.n
• • •....
• ••_____
• • • •..• __
• •......
• • • • ______
• • • • •..
• •____
• •,___
• •___
• •..• __
••••••
__
~
%
2.1
~
0.0
0.0
0.0
IV. 101
2.1
0.0
0.0
~~~_.
0.0
/'
Mf.;Dl~A~~APPlICAJ.I~'~
PHYSICIAN DEVELOPED.
It-1 PACT PROFITAOLE USEFUL
WILL
ON
TO
TO
NOT BE
SOCIETY H1PLEt1ENTOR PUBLIC IMPLEMENTE[)
(
2.86
2.52
3.32
0.45
NUMBER OF REQUIRING APPLICATIONS - 3
NECESSARY
1970-71 72-74
TOTAL
75-77
1~~=~I······1
78-80
50-~
25-!
o-~
;_____ -
0,
'0
100-~
_
~
NEVER
· · · · · · •... · . · .
•
35.5
0.0
~
75-~
50-~
ft
250-.
l······, • ••••••••••••••••••• 1
27.1
0,
'0
USEFUL
LATER
······,······1
• • • • • • • • •_ •....
• • • • • • • • • .1
0.0
0.0
1.3
23.2
L
DEFINITE
ASSET
81-85
100-1~
75-
0.0
. 0.0
• • • • • • I • • • • • •
12.3
0.0
I ............. .
12.9
1.9
0.0
50-~
25-1 .
(
O-l' ·· ····•. · ······· ·· ·· .. · .. ·· ····· ··· ·· ·· ······ ······· ·-···
4.5
%
SOME USE
0.6
0.0
1.9
0.0
100-!
0.0
0.0
75-'
50-~
25-
0-
TOTAL
i
•
•
•
•
•
2.6
%
•
•
100-~I······1
75-:.l
50-~
26::
NO USE
•
100755025-
W
98.1
•
•
•
•
0.0
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
0.0
1.9
•
•
0.0
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
0.6
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
0.6
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
0.6
•
•
•
•
•
•
0.6
••••••• ,
I.
·
·
·
·
·
•...••.•..•..•••••.•
••••••••...•..
0.0
0.6
0-- •••• ~ •••• • • • • •• • • • • •• • e
%
•
0.0
0.0
1.3
o _ · ·
0.0
(
IV. 102
38.1
• • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
0.6
0.6
0.6
6.5
51.0
•
•
•
•
•
•
0.6
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
0.0
•
•
•
IMPACT PROFITABLE USEFUL
WILL
ON
TO
NOT BE
TO
SOCIETY 1M PL EM ENTOR PUBLIC IMPLEt1ENTED
2.32
2.87
2.57
. 0.23
NUHBER OF REQUIRING APPLICATIONS - 3
TOTAL
NECESSARY
l~EII······1
.
%
78-80
81-85
LATER
NEVER
.
.'
61.4
0.0
0.0
3.2
35.4
19.6
2.5
0.6
100-1
75-~
50250-
u
1······1 • • • • • •• • • • • • • • • •• • • • I······. • • • • • • I .•............
31.6
96
USEFUL
75-77
······ •. . . . • . I • ••••• , .•••••.
'.................... I
25-1
0-
DEFINITE
ASSET
1970-71 72-74
0.0
0.0
1.3
22.8
7.6
0.0
0.0
100-i
7550-~
250SO~1E
USE
••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• I •••••••••••••••••••••
%
100-1
3.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.2
0.6
0.0
0.0
75-~
50-~.
.
25-"
0-1············
...... ,...................................... .
,
TOTAL
%
1.9
100- 1
~FI~
0=
,
%
NO USE
1...... 1
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.3
0.6
. I· ·····1. ·····1
• • • • • • •••• • •••••••• •
98.7
0.0
0.0
4.4
0.0
0.0'
•••••••• • • • • ••
.
62.7
28.5
2.5
0.6
100-,
~EI .........................................................
.'--.-------------------------------------------------------------0.0
0.0
0.0
IV.10'
0.6
0.0
0.6
0.0
(
Tuo types of data TJrocessing s8rvices \Thich are not generallv
available toda" \Jere identified: Podel Building Service"> and
Information Data Danks.
Seven control and planning type of applications specifically asked
for professional services in developinq and proqramning of sinulations and Dodels.
Thiel need ',Jas rat8cl a,=-; a "Definite }\s'1et"
starting in 1975. 'Ellis specific need conDled '.lith the previousl'.,
mentioned trend to planning Gyste~s, indicates a potential marketing
area.
The second service ,'laS that of providing access to data banks of
information ':\lhich is either too voluninous or too volatile for an
organization to naintain itself.
The service Hould mai!1tain
the data banks and <1efray their expenses by sellinCJ rel'1.ote acces~,
to large numbers of users.
T\vo specific e~~arrtples iJere cited:
data bank containing economic, census, and other
consumer and market data \"hich "lQuld serve to descri:')e
t~le external business environnen t.
Users T,vould use the
data as input into strategic planning svsteM9 •
l\"
.:\ data bank of aircraft performance expectations and
potential malfunctions •. The nata bank ~"ould probah ly
be maintained by aircraft mainfraMe and engine manufacturers.
It would be used for nreventive maintenance
diagnostics of telemetered in-flight aircraft data.
Data Bank services become increasingly more economically attractive
as computer netvorks and the associated cOnu:1unication capabilities
become Vlidespr(~ ad in 1975.
(
IV.I04
DATA PROCESSING SERVICES
Pages
III.ll
111.20
111.21
111.17
III.20
111.21
111022
111.83
111.141
111.165
Capabilities and Applications
AIRCRAFT PERFORMANCE AND MALFUllCT ION DATA BANK
AUTOMATED AIRCRAFT DIAGNOSTICS
EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT DATA BANK
ECONOMETRIC MODELS OF THE ECONOMY
ENTERPRISE SIMULATION
MODEL DEVELOPMENT
CASH FLOW SIMULATION
ECONOMETRIC MODELS OF THE ECONOMY
ENTERPRISE SIMULATION
INVESTMENT J.1ODELS
GOVERNMENTAL PLANNING SYSTEMS FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT SIMULATION SYSTEM
AUTOMATED MASS TRANSIT SYSTEMS
IV.lOS
AIRCRAFT PERFORt·1ANCE AND HALFUtJCTIOt·j DATA BANK
It1PACT PROF I TAG LE
\/1 LL
USEFUL
tJOT OE
ON
TO
TO
SOCIETY Ii\PLEtlENTOR. PUBLIC H1PLEnENTED
(
1.57
2.76
3.38
NUt-10EI! OF
F!EQUIRIt~G
i'JEC ES SAR.Y
100-:
0.05
1
APPLICATIONS -
1970-71 72-74
TOTAL
~ ~5=11· ···'. -I
"- -~
O-~•__ .
% 71.2
75-77
J• • • • • •
78-80
81-85
DEFINITE
ASSET
•••••••••••••
100-~
NEVER
I· ·····1
• • ...
• • • • • • •. .•._
• •"•. .•. .•. .• • • • • •
~_·"_'--""-'-~.lIIII·_"'-"'_~~,~,,,,,,,,~"""'
0.0
LATEr
0.0
17.3
51.9
.-e~_:"M:~
1.9
;_.r_~~
0.0
0.0
75-t
50-;
')t,-
0-:• J• • • • • • I · · · · · · · · · · · · · . · · · · · · I · · · · · · I · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · ·
'-:;>- ~
;..
~~:
J.~oe:"lI
25.0
%
USEFUL
__
100-~
_____
-..r_~~w.:_·~"·~.~·IMI"!a~
0.0
0.0
3.3
__
21.2
M4""',_.'._~·'w.
0.0
..._ .....
0.0
~
__._ ....
~
0.0
75-,
50-t
')5 •
'- -It
0-
(
t • • • • • • • ,---~..
· • • · • • • • • • · • • , • • • • • • , · • · • • • · • • • • • • • • • • · • • • • • • •-,'~.
···
,
•
%
SOME USE
3.8
100-~
-=:.-.
0.0
0.0
_...
3.8
0.0
--
0.0
0.0
0.0
75-i
50-.
25-i
O-lL.• • • • • •__
• •...• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •.....
• • • • • • • • • •__
••••••••••••••••••••
.....--~
0.0
%
TOTAL
1. ·····1
0.0
0.0
0.0
100-1
~~:i
25-[
0-1
•.:':' ••.':'••:':'':':
% 100.0
NO USE
0.0
~
0.0
7.0
J. ••· · ·
0.0
0.0
)······1
_
25.0
0.0
•••• •••••••••• ••
73.1
1.9
0.0
e••: . • :.
0.0
100-1
7550-;
2~:i
~
%
........................................................ .
0.0
0.0
-
0.0
IV.106
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
--0.0
EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT DATA BANK
H1PACT
PROFITABLE USEFUL
WILL
NOT BE
TO
TO
SOCIETY IMPLErtENTOR PUBLI C IMPLEMENTED
2.17
1.94
0.23·
3.17
ON
NUMBER OF REQUIRING APPLICATIONS - 2
NECESSARY 100-,
TOTAL
1970-71 72-74
~~:tl······I·
25-'
0- I•
.
ibn
DEFINITE
ASSET
% 50.4
100-1
75-1
50-
I.
26=1n
%
USEFUL
II •
•
.,
I
0.0
81-85
LATER
NEVER
I······, ·····., • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
_____
8.9
• _
__
40.6
8.9
• ••
0.0
0.0
...•...•..•.• , .••••• 1••••••••••••• , ••••••••••••••
~_
0.0
37.6
78-80
••••••••••••• ' ·· ··· ·
0.0
•
75-77
__
•
1.0
18.8
11.9
0.0
0.0
100-1
755025-.
O-i'······,·········································
....... .
--
%
SOME USE
TOTAL
0.0
3.0
.
i~EII.::~ 1 0.0
% 100.0
USE
0.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
0.0
100-1
7550250- • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • e" • • • • • • • • • • • • •
250NO
0.0
1007550250-
0.0
0.0
.
I.~:~ I 0.0
,......
•••••••••••••
.
0.0
1.0
14.9
62.4
0.0
• ••••• ,
21.8
••••••••••••••
0.0
0.0
• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • e' • • • • • • • • • • • •" • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
0.0
%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
IV.10?
f
... _ _ ~
0.0
_ ..,
;.,
'~_'..,..
.,,_~_~
____ .__ . _~'_~-:'~~~_~_~ =,t,=- __
'_~
__ .':~==-=-v=- ..::~--:_.-=-~~~'-.
0.0
MODEL DEVELOPMENT
(
IMPACT
PROFITABLE
TO
ON
SOCIETY
2.16
H1PLE~IEtlTOR
3.07
USEFUL
"JILL
TO
NOT BE
PUBLIC IMPLEMENTED
0.31
2.39
NUMBER OF REQUIRING APPLICATIONS - 7
NECESSARY 100-[
TOTAL
1970-71 72-74
75-77
78-80
81-85
LATER
iJEVF:R
~6:1
25- , •••••• ,
0-'..
. _ _ _•••
•••••••••••••
,_
••••••
, ••••••
, •••••••
w ____
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ,_•••••••••••••
___________
_____
_
• _ _ _•___
~ _ _ .....
100-'
75-1
50-
25-1
0-1
USEFUL
0.0
23.0
%
DEFINITE
ASSET
1.5
5.6
8.8
1······1
2.9
0.6
.
J • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •__
• • • I • - ,-w·,- .:,;" •..: • • ::.
__. • • • • • • • • • • • •
% 55.8
100-1
0.0
2.1
14.5
20.1
16.8
2.4
0.0
75-
5025-1 J • • • • • • I
o--~
• ••• • • • • •• • •• , •• • •• •• • • •• • •• • • •• • • • •• • •• • • • • • • • • •
(
%
SOHE USE
'a
100-
75-
50-
250-
%
TOTAL
15.6
0.0
0.9
5.6
3.8
0.0
0.3
0.6
250-
%
50-
250%
0.9
,
l~~:IJ······1
10075-
3.8
....... .........................................'. .......
50-~
NO USE
..........-.-.
•.• • • • • • • • • • • •
98.2
I · •••· ·
1.5
0.3
0.0
,······,······1
••••••, •••••••
21.5
0.0
1.2
30.7
...................... .......... ...'.,.............. ...... .
~
1.8
0.0
0.3
~
0.6
IV.lot '
0.6
0.3
0.0
0.0
."
./
IW'l COHFIDENTIAL
(
SPECIAL PRODUCTS
There was a class of requests for sDecific products associated
with specific applications which were highly specialized or
distantly related to data processing. These are listed belml
'I:Ji thout cOMment.
Aircraft position altitude speed and course
transponders
Alphanumeric input from standard telephones
•
Automobile computers for collision avoidance
•
Baggage tag readers
Commercial airborne computers
•
Computerized baggage handling equipnent
Computerized baggage sorters
Computerized chemical analytical
•
Improved sensor technology
•
Improved telemetry
e~uipment
Low cost computer systems for automotive diagnostic
Low cost sensors for pollution monitoring
Remote utility usage monitors
Sensors with eye-like capabilities for general
purpose robots
Hide-angle collision sensing device
(IV.109
SPECIAL PRODUCTS
Pages
111.37
Capabilities and Applications
ADVANCED COMPUTER CONTROLLED CHEMICAL ANALYTIC
COMPUTERIZED WASTE DISPOSAL PLANTS
EQUJPMENT~
AIRBORNE COMPUTERS FOR INTERFACE AND BACKUP TO AUTOMATED CONTROL SY.'JTEi.fS
IN-FLIGH'l.' MONITORING AND DIAGNOSTICS OF AIRCRAFT
111.77
AUTOMATED LANDINGS AND TAKEOFFS
111.14
ADPliANUMERIC INPUT FROM STANDARD TELEPHONE8
111.123 111.172 TELEPHONE DIRECTORY AND YELLOW PAGE DATA BANKS
111.166
AUTOMOBILE COMPUTER
AUTOMATED ROADWAYS
111.13
BAGGAGE TAG READERS
AUTOMATED BAGGAGE CONTROL
111.13
COMP~TER CONTROLLED BAGGAGE SORTERS
AUTOMATED BAGGAGE CON'l'ROL
111.13
IMPROVED BAGGAGE HANDLING EQUIPMENT
AUTOMA TE D BA GGAGE CONTROL
111.7
111.40
111.137
111.140
111.142
111.151
111.155
111.156
111.157
IMPROVED SENSOR TECHNOLOGY
AUTOMATIC IRRIGATION CONTROL
POLLUTION MONITORING SYSTEMS
AUTOMATED PROCESS MANUFACTURING PLANT
CUSTOMER QUALITY ASSURANCE
ROBOT-CONTROLLED AUTOMOBILE CHECKOUT
CLIijICAL DECISION SUPPORT SYS~EMS
MULTI-PHASIC 8CREENING
OUT-PATIENT MONITORING
PREVENTIVE MEDICINE DIAGNOSTIC CENTERS
111.14
111.156
IMPROVED TELEMETRY
IN-FLIGHT MONITORING AND DIAGNOSTICS OF AIRCRAFT
OUT-PATIENT MONITORING
IV.lIO
'Pages
Capabilities and Applications
INEXPENSIVE' AIRCRAFT POSITION AND IDENTIFICATION TRANSPONDERS'
NATIONWIDE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL
III.86
III.66
LOyl COST COMPUTER SYSTEMS <$500 I MONTH
AUTOMATED VEHICLE DIAGNOSTIC CENTERS
III.40
LOW COST SENSORS
POLLUTION MONITORING SYSTEMS
III.138
SENSORS WITH EYE-LIKE CAPABILITIES
AUTOMATED ROBOTS
III.173
UTILITY REMOTE USAGE RECORDING DEVICE
UTILITY USAGE RECORDING SYSTEM
SENSING DEVICE FOR AUTOMOBILE COLLISION AVOIDANCE'
AUTOMOBILE COLLISION AVOIDANCE' SYSTEMS
~IDE-ANGLE
(
III.16S
IV.III
ADVANCED COMPUTERCONTROLI,..EO CHEMICAL ANALYTIC EQUIPMENT
\/ ILL
USEFUL
imT DE
TO
TO
SOCIETY I t1PLEI1EIJTOR PUBLIC H1PLE~iENTED
pr~OFITAI3LE
H1PACT
ON
2.34
i~UMI3ER
2.40
2.98
0.90
1
OF REQUIRING APPLICATIC)/'../S -
1970-71 72-74
TOTAL
75-77
73-30
81-85
U\TER
NECESSARY 100-:
75-~1······1
50-,
25-i
0-;"
_.:aII':_"~"·
%
DEFINITE
ASSET
•••• •••
· · · · · · · · ·__· · · · · · · · · · ·
__
--'-'~~
78.0
0.0
I
.
······I · · · · · · · · · .,. · · ,
WL. . .~-._,...._.:u;::ar.~'2r_t......!;at~:_~~2",,.r_...,.. .1F.'.lr!_...... _
0.0
2.0
42.0
;~EVER
2SQ~
26.0
... ~~~ . . . . . _
.....:;..~
4.0
100-t
75-~
50-;
25-~
, •••••••
·
o-!'
"
· • · •• · · · · · · ·. · · · · · · · · I
~:a'''''._'''~'
%
USEFUL
100-~
13.0
_____ ..-:w ....'-'-__.___
0.0
0.0
· · · · · · , · • • • • • , .•••.••••....•
'-':--''''':~.:~.'''''''--'~",.:."""",~"""",,,,,,,,,~,,,,,,.:,~.
0.0
12.0
6.0
0.0
0.0
75-;
50-1
25-~
0-,• • · · · · · · I
"
~_~
%
sor'1E USE
4.0
__".:" " ___
• • • • • • • • • • • • •• • • • • • • • • • •• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
E'II"':~"a:S'""",_·_.
___'_
0.0
_____
0.0
=._._~
0.0
~"r.:
2.0
_ _ _...... _, .....
0.0
~~,_
2.0
..,......
:w;,:-«',• • . ,.11
0.0
100-:
75-i
50-;
25-~
•
0-.r..· · · · · · ·_·....·_·......
· ·~~~
· · · · · · ·_~~~~WCi;r.::JI"~'S1~,:e·_,ra~~·,....._'
· · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · ·......·
%
TOTAL
0.0
1~~=~1······1
50--'
25 •
0=:r..-.
__
'Wi-
% 100.0
NO USE
100-~
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1...... 1
····················
_ ' . . .~;.IU
0.0
0.0
2.0
•••••
0.0
·1
0.0
·············,
s a _ ...._ _ _ ,_~-:..... ·~_~.· ____.........-...:.....1I
56.0
32.0
6.0
4.0
75-;
50-.
25-"
O-i• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • · • • • • · • · • • • • • .• • · • • • · • • · • • • • • • • r-'-~.
~_
=__
or,rr
_ _ ._ _ _ .~ .•• "
WfIO_'~·.JF-.~~"""""'~~
%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
O.O·~
AIRBOR~IE
(
COHPUTERS FOR INTERFACE NJD BACKUP TO AUTOMATED CONTROL SYSTEr1S
HIPACT
PROFITA[3LE USEFUL
'nLL
Ot'J
tJOT BE
TO
TO
SOCIETY IMPLErlEi'lTOR PU[3LIC U1PLEl1EtlTED
2.38
2.90
i:Ut1DEI: OF REQUIrUrlG APPLICATIOtJS -
1970-71
TOTAL
NECESSAf~Y
0.31'
2.91
2
72-71~
75-77
78-80
81-85
LATER' NEVEr
100- 1
75-~
50-'
25-~1··'····1
M
J• • • • • •
0- ~•
. • • • •• •• •• •••.
................. ,...............,....... ,. _____
c,
47.1
'';
DEFUI I TE
/\55 ET
100-:
·311:~· ...... y,..._~~·_.·
0.0
'
•...... ,
· • • • • • • •. .·. .··. •. .•,.,•. . •. • · · • · ·
. . ..... _..........• ...-.-.·-.-....-,.
__..e:e .... .... '.
~._
28.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
75-~
50-:
')h-~J····'··I
'-:J;
0-;
•••••• , ••••••
•••••••••••••,
, •••••••••••••••••••••
~~~._ .......,~_,_. . _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ,... _ _ .,...............~· ....,.,...,~"'IP..P:ocil._._".·.."..~IIIf!~~
USEFUL
(
% 33.7
100-:
75-:
0.0
50-~
25~ J• • • • • • I
0- ~
~
..........
~_
100-~
21.2
· ••· · · ••••· •·
_.&:-~
12.5
%
SOllE USE
.....
0.0
. . . . . . . ..,.. . . .
~
,···.··,
__ _
0.0
0.0
10.G
1.0
0.0
· · · •· •, · ••· · · •· · ••••· · •· · · •·
~__.
9.6
1.0
_ _.. _ _ _ _ _ .....
..
~
2.9
0.0
~"'1IC
0.0
.........
..-:_'~
..
0.0
75-:
50-t
25-[
%
TOTAL
100-:
75-~
50-:
1.9
""0-[r•. ___
%
100-!
75-1
50-f
0.0
1.0
1.0
0.0
0.0
~
_ _4W! _ _ _ .•
~
.- _
~
~
,
'
0.0
__
..
0.0
,e ........... _,
•••••••••••••
!...,..,•.• ,....,•. ___ •
95.2
...
_
~
;
__,. . . .
:
:
.
'I. ·····1
')5-~
NO USE
-
~
~
.
~
i
~
~
0--: · · · · · . · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · ·
0.0
t_ _ _ _ _
0.0
=_..........,...-.:_.._
44.2
~
43.3
.~ •••••••••••••••••••
___....
......
~~~~~~:
6.7
1.0
0.0
25-~
0-;L.:....-..-r~
• · • • · · · • · • · · • ·_..........
· · · • • · •....
, · · •.•••
· · · , · · • · · · · · · • • · · · · · · · · · · ·~_~
······
DB
(-
%
4.8
0.0
0.0
IV.113
0.0
.=--~-
-----. ._---.• -
_
1.0
1.0
.--~---
.....
--
0.0
AlftM'AM1M£,tUC INPUT JrROM STANDARD TfLEPHQlteS
IMPACT PROFITABLE USEFUL
\'JILL
ON
TO
TO
NOT BE
SOCIETY H1PLEt1ENTOR PUBLIC H1PLEt1ENTED
2.00
2.80
2.62
0.29
/
NUMBER OF REQUIRING APPLICATIONS - 1
NECESSARY
100-~
75-~
1970-71 72-74
TOTAL
50-1
o-~
"
.~
0.0
0.0
...... ,
81-85
LATER
________
..
• • • • • • • • • • • • • , ••• "••••
__~~~.~.:.W!'~
1.8
ilE'lER
._~,._
16.1
0.0
100-.
75-£
50-'1······1
25-'
e.
P-.
O-~
%
USEFUL
...•..........•..... J
~_
32.1
%
78-80
. . .-. . -_,____.-. . .
25-!J······1
DEFINITE
ASSET
75-77
••••••••••••• , . . . . . .
• ____
AS
0.0
55.4
0.0
100-,
75-&
1•••••• , • • • • • • I
__
32.1
3.6
• ••••• , •••••••
___...
5.4
_-.sF",
0.0
50-,
"\
25-: , .•.••.•
.E____
• • • • .•.____
• • • • •. •__
• •..•·~~·_-.&
• • • • • • , • • • •_______________
• • • • • • • • • I • • • • • • •.......
• •,__•;____
• • •=_
•
0- L
~
12.5
%
sor-1E USE
0.0
0.0
0.0
5.4
50-t
0-
,
:_.::.:.:.~ :.:::.~:::.:_:::.:.::~
L':':': · · · ·4:.::'~ ··:.:..:.:.:.::. ····.: ·······
0.0
%
1~~=~1···
···1
50- 7
25-1~
0-.
~.~
% 100.0
NO USE
0.0
1.8
75-~
25-~
TOTAL
5.4
100-"
100-~
75-~
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
I······,
· · · · · · · · · · · · · •· · · · · ·
...,.,.... __..---..... _ . _ _ _
0.0
0.0
__
5.4
..
0.0
0.0
••••••I . . . . . . I
.. l=cwa.___ )•.••·____ ..:Wt....,.
53.6
0.0
26.8
, ·· ·· ··.
•.•
14.3
_.~~ .............
0.0
50-!
25-:
0-:r..· · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · ·.-_
· · ·....
· ·_
· · · ·.· · · · · · ·____
· · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · ·..
~-.:
0.0
_~.~~.,
0.0
0.0
0.0
IV.114
~
-~---~~~------
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
'
AUTot10B I LE COt1PUTER
(
H1PACT
PROFITAGLE
USEFUL
\/ I LL
O:J
TO
NOT BE
TO
SOCIETY II'lPLEHENTOR PU8LIC I tlPLEliCtJTED
3.28
I~WIi3E~~
OF
REQUHnr~G
NECESSARY 100-~
TOTAL
1.44
2.56
1.74
APPLICATIO~IS
-
1
1970-71 72-74
75-77
78-80
81-85
LATER
NEVEr
.
~~=~.'I······I·
1······1
.
25-;;,
••••••
o-~
.•......................... J
••••••,
r...·.81.:~~_,;w::w:::_wa:_~_.'.......,:~<._~w: __~""~~"'~"' __ ~~''1C~._
%
0.0
0.0
49.1
0.0
15.1
71.7
1.9
...
DEFINITE
ASSET
100-~
75-~
50-~
.,.......
25-:0- ~1'-..____..___________
· • • · · ""•__
• •_·
<:s
USEFUL
100-~
0.0
15.1
....... ,
• • •.II_.
•____
· • •. _______
• • • • • • • • · · .,•___
, ...•____
• • "'•____
••
· ••••••
~,~~~
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.8
11.3'
0.0
75-:
(
50-~
25-t
O-k ' · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · , · · · · · · · · ••••••
l.,,1IIt..,..........a:.___...
__
....
.-:--...-s.
_la.·.
- - - - . .......................
~
~_..,
SGriC USE
3.8
%
100-:
0.0
~
_~:__
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.8
0.0
0.0
75-:
..
50-~
~~
~::rli
o-~ · · · · · · · • ·_.......
• • • · • · · • • • • · · • • • • • • · • • • · • • • •__.
· • • • • · • · •. · • • • • · · • ·• .•-•~,_
0.0
%
TOTAL
_.~.,...a._
1~~=~1·······1
50-~
2 ~-~
-' •I.......,,,
0-1
"
%
iJO USE
0.0
100-~
0.0
0.0
0.0
.-..r~.-.-:
0.0
0.0
0.0
1...... 1
• •____
• •• •
· · · · · · · · · ·_____
· · · · ·:.-________
· · · · · · · · · ~ · ·...J--..,
_iWLl ....
90.6
_~...-_'
1.9
· · · ·....· · •
=_:-=-"---.~-.-;
0.0
0.0
..
~I.
64.2
0.0
'T5-~
50-.
25-:
0- ~ , · · · · • · I • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • , • • • • • • , • • • • • • •
,_.....~~~_
9.4
_ ......\.... __ ~-==,., ..
0.0
0.0
'_<._.=_._... s:.,~
0.0
IV.IIS
i=
....
0.0
__ .:a:
1.9
_
..,......,..;. .__
5.7
-..r~,..,...,.
1.9
II
BAGGAGE TAG READERS
H1PACT PROFITABLE USEFUL
HILL
TO
ON
NOT DE
TO
SOCIETY HtPLEfJlEtHOR PUBLIC HiP LEI'1Et HE D
0.20
1.54
3.13
2.95
NUMBER OF REQUIRING APPLICATIONS - 1
1970-71 72-74
TOTAL
NECESSARY
75-77
1~:55~il······1
L..
0.0
78.4
2.0
81-85
LATER
ilEVER
I··~···I·
J• • • • • •
-,
0-;r,...___..____
·......
· ___
· · · ._
•..· · • • · ·. a:"·___..._____
~.,
DEFItJITE
ASSET
78-80
· · · · · ·. .I
.~~
•...• • • • • •
• ••••
•_ •
•••
...
, _
............
"~
_~.......,_
0.0
13.7
2.0
100-1
75-,
50-;
25-~
, • • • • • ••
J• • • • • • I
O-i
••••••••••••••••••••
•••••••••••••••••••· •
;
USEFUL
%
100-~
_.
•
15.7
_-.-:,~ . . _ _ _ _ _ ..
0.0
~
&.'a:
0.0
2.0
13.7
•
_ :_ _
0.00.0
0.0
75-1
,
50-t
"<-
,
25-~
0-1,······,···········································
..... .
1..---...
...-_
_
••
"W_1WCIIAi.-JI
SOME USE
%
3.9
100-~
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.0
2.0
0.0
75-i
50-1
0.0
'
25-~
0-, · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · • · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · ". · · ·
%
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
,
TOTAL
_ _ ~__ _
___
100-~I······1
~6=!
25-1
0- II1
n..".
%
NO USE
,ar
100-;
.
98.0
••••••••••
_
0.0
~
2.0
••
J••••••
~,:aa
I· ·····1
..
15.A
70.6
• •••••••••••••
___
• • • • • • ,
I
7.8
0.0
. .~ _ _ _ . . . . .
2.0
75-,
50-1
25-~
0-1P...· -· · · · · · · ·_______
· · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · ·•______
· · · · · ·..·_· · · · · · · __· ·............
···
~
%
2.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
IV.116
2.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
IHPACT
PROFITABLE USEFUL
HILL
NOT BE
TO
TO
SOCIETY H1PLEMENTOR PUBLIC H1PLEHENTED
0.20
1.5 It
2.95
3.13
ON
NUMBER OF REQUIRING APPLICATIONS - 1
TOTAL
t·~ECESSARY
1970-71 72-74
0-.~
······
~_~ _ _ ~
%
100-~
58.0
it • • • • • II
__ ........
0.0
I, • • • • • •
_...
2.0
81-85
LATER
iJEVER
.
I· . ···· I
.
•••••••••••••••••••••
_iIIb _ _ _ _ _ • _ _. . _~ _ _ _· _......~~. . . .
8.0
46.0
2.0
0.0
0.0
75-I
50-i
,
2 5-~!
0-"L.._L. ___, • • • • • • • • • • • • •
I" · •••· t
·····J
. . . . .·.·0lil......
•• " •••
l_'~__
USEFUL
78-80
I.
~~=II······I
DEFINITE
ASSET
75-'17
100-'
75-t
% 32.0
100-i
0.0
0.0
8.0
i
.._E
• •__
• • • •• • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
22.0
_'t1~~_
2.0
0.0
0.0
75-1
50-~
(
25-!
,
0-"~P.."..I •____
•••••
._. __......-.
I'
II . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4& • • • • • • • • • • • •
%
SOI-1l: USE
8.0
100-~
75-~
~
0.0
0.0
•
•
,.u.w..,.......
a __
•
•
0.0
2.0
•
fl... .,_,j ......,
,
••••••••••••••
~l'ill
....
4.0
0.0
2.0
50-~
25-~
0- ~ ..................... • • • • ., • ••• '* ••••••••••••••••• ,••••••
,~.........,.."-...-.__a....... ~~-'~_d
%
TOTAL
0.0
0.0
0.0
~~=~.'
J-~.
0-i
.....
J. • • • • •
· · · · · .. ., · .. *,,@".,
~-....
%
NO USE
0.0
100-:1······1
2h r
lOO-~
98.0
•
f
l1li1 . . .
0.0
... r
. . . ...,.,
2.0
_. I
0.0
0.0
z
0
__,_ .... _
0.0
1$ • •
i\QIIIIiW#
0.0
l·e····1 ...... ,
__
16.0
.m ___
•
.....
70.0
, . • • • • • • • • • • • •Ma.
•
I
___ I
8.0
4U........
o.n
2.0
75-~
50-~
')5-~
'-o-j ...................... ", ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••
Lid
%
......... __
2.0
0.0
•
I
IL_
sa
0.0
Iv ..!l7
SIII>"
. _ • • • __...
0.0
2.0
__
0.0
••
0.0
...
0.0
IMPROVED BAGGAGE HANDLING EQUIPMENT
H1PACT
PROFITADLE USEFUL
HILL
TO
TO
NOT BE
SOCIETY H1PLEt-1ENTOR PUi3LIC H1PLEllENTED
1.54
0.20
2.95
3.13
ON
NUI'1BER OF
REQUIRIt~G
NECESSARY
100-~
TOTAL
APPLICATIONS - 1
1970-71 72-74
75-77
75-~1······1
~~=~.
O-~~
78-80
••••
• • • • • • •____
• • • •...............
• • I • •~a;eo;..~.
68.0
%
NEVEr.
0.0
8.0
2.0
.
____ .• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
I
"...
4.0
52.0
~_ _ ~"'tS','~.,"'.
2.0
0.0
75-~
25-f
0- ~
I· ·· ·· ·1 • • • • • • • • • • • • • , • • • • • • I · ···· ·I .. .................. .
~,~_.
%
100-[
28.0
_
_______
0.0
a __
0.0
a.
6.0
gl._
--=.....
••• __
20.0
2.0
om:.11
0.0
0.0
75-;
50-,
2 5-.
0--, · · · · • · · · · · · · · · · · · · · • • · · · · · · · · · • • · · · · · · · · · · · • • • · • • · · · · · • · ·
~.~_.....-:;. ._~..,_
%
SOHE USE
.
100-1
50-;
USE FUL
LATER
1...... 11
D..-.~~."8i!
DEFINITE
ASSET
81-85
100-:
2.0
0.0
. _ _ _ ~~..,. . .~1W!--.a
_____
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.0
0.0
0.0
75-~
50-~
*
·
2 5-i
-------
O-~;..• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
.---.--
..
TOTAL
%
2.0
l~tlill·······1
0.0
0.0
NO USE
% 100.0
100-i
2.0
• • • • • • ,
...
•• ••••••••••• .
0.0
2.0
14.0
74.0
75-i
0.0
0.0
8.0
• • • • • • • •____
• • • • • •_
0.0
2.0
.
50-~
2
0.0
1······1
J••••••
250-1IL.-._
0.0
6:1 ........................................................ .
m
%
.......
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
IV.11B
0.0
0.0
T
0.0
._
. _ __
_.~~
·0.0
IMPROVED SENSOR TECHNOLOGY
(
PROFITABLE USEFUL
HILL
~lOT BE
TO
TO
SOCIETY H1PLEMENTOR PUBLIC H1PLH1ENTED
H1PACT
ml
2.38
2.5 LI
2.82
0.67
NUMBER OF REQUIRING APPLICATIONS - 9
iJECESSARY
100-~
TOTAL
1970-71 72-74
78-80
75-~1······1
50-~
2 5-~
O-i,=
%
lo0-i
.
••••• • •• • • • • •
GG.7
81-85
LATER
r·JEVER
.
L-........-..__.....~.~. . .~
DEFINITE
ASSET
75-77
0.0
I • • • • • •
0.2
I•.••••
.1( _ _ _
5.4
.0 · · · · '1 • • • • .. I •••••••
•
15.7
••
32.3
_ _• •
~~II',_·".II",,""",.•"~·_lI
11.0
2.1
75-.
50-i
1° ••.. ·1
............., • • • • • •
••••••••••••••••••••I
,_. ____
_.-.-_, .
- .... -q-III---.. . .
2 5-~'
0-,
I •••••••
~---.---
0.0
%
USEFUL
~-........
100-;
0.2
.0.9
11.9
2.6
,·:~~;Ql
0.5
•
75-~
50-~
25-~
•M.. _ _•____ ........_ ' . ___ __
f
0_'·······, ... ·.... ·.···.···· ... ·.· ..... ······,· ... ··.· ..... .
SOHE USE
%
lOO-~
6.8
0.0
0.2
F _ _...
_ ...
_"".
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _........_ _
11......................_ _.,.,.
0.0
1.6
4.2
0.7
0.0
rr5-~
50-~
,
25-~
L.., • •_.............
0-1·
• • • • • • • • • • • • •.._
• • • • • • • • • •_..--....
• • • • • • • • • • •__
• • • • • •_ • •__
• • ••••__
• •.....•__•,.....
••••
~,,:s
1.2
0.0
100-'1······1
75-~
0.0
%
TOTAL
0.0
a-Ir...
t·lO USE
__
% 98.6
100-[
....-___
· • • · • · · · · · • • • • · ·__
· ••·
0.0
0.5
0.2
0.0
.
50-~
25-i
0.5
0~7
75-L
25-1
6.3
Ie •• • • •
25.5
1······1 ••••••
_
48.9
_
14.5
I • • • __
• •.......
••
~
2.6
50-%
au___ _
0-&I.• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • .. • • • •• • • •• • • • • • • • • • • • • •
(
%
1.4
0.0
0.0
IV.119
0.0
0.5
.~
0.5
0.0
0.5
IMPROVED TELEt1ETRY
H1PACT
PP.OFITABLE USEFUL
~J I LL
TO
TO
NOT
BE
O~'
SOCIETY H1PLEHENTOR PUBLIC H1PLEMENTED
2.14
2.16
2.25
1.05
NUMBER OF REQUIRING APPLICATIONS - 2
TOTAL
1970-71 72-74
75-77
78-80
81-85
LATER
NECESSARY 100-_
-:1 ...... 1
.
*.
75-~
50
25-~
.- • • • • • , •••••
O-~r.-.-~______•...,.,.-....-:.
• • • • • •a • • • • _~·_
• • , • • • • • • • • • • • • • .."._~_~IIIIif.III:"III
•••••••
% 57.3
0.0
0.0
5.8
4.9
27.2
19.4
0.0
I••
DEFINITE
ASSET
___
'l'JI.
.....
100-~
75-~
50-t
25-~J······1
"
0- L
~ n . . • • •_• r• • • • • • • • •
% 36.9
0.0
0.0
25.2
I······.
& .....
USEFUL
~~EVER
•
•••••• I
811M:.
_w,p
• • • •7. • E•_• _
• • • • • • •__--=-............
•••••••
9.7
1.0
1.0
0.0
100-,
75-L
50-~
25-t
0- ~
~
sonE USE
._J...
I • • • • • • I ••••••••••••• , ~ • • • • • , ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••
r-...._,_.-..,;_....... __
%
3.9
0.0
0.0
II a " " , , ;
Ie • • • _ . .
•
__
2.9
100-~
1.0
_.-._~~ftII.~""'J'!lMI
0.0
0.0
0.0
75-:
50-"
25-t•
o-~r · · · · · · . · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · • · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · • · · · · · · · · ·
..:11.....
%
TOTAL
__
0.0
•••••. _ _
l~~=il······1
0.0
_
_ _. . . _ _
0.0
50-~
NO
USE
• • •~....
• • • • • • • • •• •
___
% 98.1
100-,
. ._ .. . . . , , _. . . .
0.0
J.......
25 -~I
O-~r........
-
0.0
0.0
.__
34.0
0.0
• • • • • •
"
.......
~,
0.0
.
I·······
~,
__
0.0
• • • • •
.,.-,
15.5
28.2
..
~.,
~'~~I'lIIC
...
0.0
0' ... • • • • • • •
~ilIIr..~"""
20.4
0.0
75- r
50-:
25-t
o-~~"""-;'_'_'_'
• • • · · • · • • • •"_~''''~~~
· · • • • • · · · • • · • • · ·~~''''~
· • • · • · • • · • • • · ·'~~~~~_;~'"'i1I1t.'''''t
· ••. · · · ••· • · • •· ·
___
%
1.9
0.0
____
0.0
1.0
IV.lao
__
0.0
0.0
1.0
0.0
INEXPENSIVE AIRCRAFT POSITION AND IDEI'JTI'FICATIOj~ TRANSPONDERS
(
IMPACT PROFITA[3LE
USEFUL
\'/ ILL
ON
TO
TO
tJOT BE
SOCIETY H1 P LEtlEtJTOR PUBU C It1PLEt·1EtHED
3.41
3.14
4.38
1
NUMBER OF REQUIRING APPLICATIONS t'JECESSARY 100-~
0.07
1970-71 72-74
TOTAL
75-77
~6=~1······1
25-~
~
0-&
~__· ••. _ _ _ Ir ..... _
1
DEFItJITE
ASSET
.• • • • • • • • • • • • •
..
...... _ .....
.,~_!l!W!d
% 73.2
100-L
75-,
...
~~
0.0
0.0
78-80
I ••••••
~
___
81-8S
:JEVER
1······1·
• • • • • • , • • • • • • • • •.• • • • •
.r._;w:!'CIftt.
.'_~~_lIMI.~WIt~
16.1
LATER
48.2
8.9
a: .....
0.0
~_';
..
0.0
50-~
')5 ~
~ -- , ••.••• ,
._____
O-k•
'0
USEFUL
..
• • •·a··_<:
• •..r.•...•..-:_·_
• • •....• • •....
• ••••••
~_~w,·_·_'
21.4
().
I· . · · . •
~
;#'
0.0
I
• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •'r.
~_~. ~,·:a.."&~~;:.':'~~r.'. . . . .,~J. .·~.'R"··~'-. .·".!,.lIt.
0.0
16.1
0.0
0.0
. ..,· .....
0.8
100-:
75-~
50-~
25-i,
O-~r.,•.•_• •.........
••••••••••• ••••••••••••••, ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••
%
5.4
0.0
0.0
3.6
0.0
0.0
1.8
0.0
-w:~... ~~....... ~_~_. n'JO:...-cllll:.-,'I'It).-r.. ..~...,...Ii".!~ ...a: ..1"I·1·:~.C.'-.,...... ·...___~.~\_. _ _ _ . . . .-......... ,.:.,., • ., .....
SOt1E US E
100-~
75-t
50-r~
25-,
O--~r'l............
• • • • •=-r~~,...wr
• • • • • • •.....•~._·s:
• • • • • •.......
• •:'"_·•...•,_.-...
• • •____•=---...
• • •~a..•.;.....• ~·_•...•-...--....---.
• • • • •...•~,...-...-":
• • • • • • •..........
• .: • •~•.........
• • • •~JfI~.•
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
J"Il,
TOTAL
% 100.0
NO USE
100-~
0.0
0.0
25.0
64.3
8.9
1.8
0.0
75-:
50-~
25-,
•
O--i • • • • •............
• • • •-.-:•.•. .• • • •..............
•• •• •• •• • •• •• • • • • • • • • • •• •• • • •• •• • • •• • • • • • •
h_.~
0.0
~,_:
0.0
Ii.~,..a:-
0.0
0.0
IV.121
- . r .......-:.
w:"~
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
LOU COST COt1PUTER
SYSTE~1S
LESS THAN $500/r-10NTH
If'1PACT PROFITABLE USEFUL
HILL
ON
TO
NOT BE
TO
SOCIETY IMPLE~1ENTOR PUBLIC IHPLEMENTED
2.10
0.26
3.46
3.13
NUMBER OF REQUIRING APPLICATIONS - 1
r~ECESSARY
.
100-P;
75-i
TOTAL
1970-71
72-71~
75-77
78-80
81-85
LATEr
tJEVER
.
J.......
~~-~I······I
::>-111.
• •••••
'.
I
o-~rw:~~~..
· · · · ·Wl~'"
· · · · · · · ·~.~",_."""""-,--"-_·",,,,~,,,·~~'-:·""'''''''.·'':''''
· · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · .' .. · ·
b •
0,
'g
DEFINITE
ASSET
100-~
75-~
48.1
0.0
__
__ ·3
0.0
50-1
25-iJ······1
%
100-~
0.0
37.0
0.0
0.0
J...... ,
O--1•
••••••••••• ••
r._~~ _____ ~....,.~.__..,....._.•• _.
USEFUL
0.0
13.0
35.2
_iW
••••••I•••••••••••••••••••••
_'W':"r'. __ 'U!I' .......~~~ • .,.,..,'SI'1,. . .""""_.',.,.~- ... ,." .. ~ .. _ .......:!'lI
11.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
75-:
50-I.
25-:
o-! I
• • • • • • I •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••
~~...,:~_, •• :mro~... (1C
%
sm1E USE
3.7
0.0
_ _ • • _ _ , _ . _. . ,. . . .,.._,...Wi _ _ _ ._ _ _ _
0.0
1.9
0.0
.~:a:.*'=_,.i_ 3I~'~.·"'.S;·rII· _ _ ,..,.':1
1.9
0.0
0.0
100-i
75-~
50-~
25-r
O-~,······,
"
%
TOTAL
5.6
l~rilijl······1
25-'
0- n...-.,
.
• ••
%
94.4
NO
USE
............. ,······ •......................
......
;a;;_._...._.....
_.'*" __ :a:;
......r.......
~~_~_
0.0
_
0.0
e.
_....
3.7
___. _....._ _ _ _ _
0.0
0.0
1...... ,
. .-____
•••••••••••••
aM _~_-.r~
0.0
0.0
66.7
. ;_.
• • • • • '1
1.9
~,~Mr'1I
0.0
.
· • • • • • -.::a:
• • • • .'. • • • • • • • • •
.~
24.1
1.9
'f!/"!' _____ :AIniIt"...-=-~e:"_'J
1.9
0.0
100-:
'75-~
50-,
25-_
O-~a..,
%
_au_*"_
• • • • • • , • • • • • •=• • • • • • • • • •____
• • • • , • • • • • •. ' • • • • • •~
• • •MI:-.-.....
• • • • •.....
•••••••
AU
5.6
0.0
0.0
1.9
Iv.l.a2
0.0
·lC...:. . .-...a;.
0.0
0.0
LO'.J COST SENSORS
(
USEFUL
PROF I TAO LE
TO
TO
SOCIETY HWLEt1ENTOR PUBLIC
~iI LL
NOT BE
Ir.1PACT
ON
3.46
2.36
•
1~~=~
1.0 •
:J - .
25-F
:'111"
SOj
ASSET
78-30
,- •••••••••••
·············
;
100-!
75-;
50-,
75-77
81-85
LATER
I
NEVER
1
0-" .r._
DEFI~!ITE
1970-71 72-74
I··· ... 1
TOTAL
I
0.15
1
NUHBEP OF REQUIRIiJG /\PPLIC/\TIONS NECESSARY
H1PL[t1E~lTE D
3.75
&-:JU "II: . . .' S ' . . . . . .,:'!#".......'.a"......,'a'!'. . . , K,.,,,",,
-...r.:'fIl';'
93.6
0.0
2.1
.'lI~."
JtI, • .wax..._~_
.......
~
!
-I
··.·····'.'·.'1·1:'·...·,......··.". .·...,······
•..~_·......t·
lr 11.7
1l2.6
....~,...._ _...
2.1
~
."'tI1IJ.!_
• •......•..•__
••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••
~
%
SOl1E USE
2.1
~:'!II!'.
__
.....
~
0.0
.Jt.~:·~·
.... _ _
0.0
~~
0.0
...
~.IWI:w.
0.0
_ _ _ -.-........_
2.1
_.~
0.0
0.0
100-:
75-:
50-:
25-~
O-~r..•___
••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• •••••••••••
. - . - . . . : r...:_....._,.-.-:.
......_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __
.-...-~~~,
%
TOTAL
1
~~=~
50-.
0-'
0.0
I· ··.. ·1
25-'
L...-..__
M
100-i
0.0
0.0
....
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
, •••••••••••• _I
······
~~
% 100.0
NO USE
0.0
I • • • • • •.
______..=
__
.._________________
• • • • • • , ••••••••••••••
~_~~,.
4.3
44.7
i~
44.7
4.3
2.1
~6=!~
25-
..
0.0
.
0-,~-------· · · · · · · · · · · · · · ·~· · · · · · · · ·=· · · · · · · · ·•· · · · · · · · · · · · · · ·~~~
··· ······
(
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
IV.123
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
SENSORS WITH £yl!~rq,;;;MPABJ.Ll1rI!S
\., ILL
PROFITABLE USEFUL
TO
ON
TO
NOT BE
SOCIETY IMPLEt1ENTOR PUOLIC H1PLEt1ENTED
2.72
1.86
1.70
1.37
IHK3T
.
NUMBER OF REQUIRING APPLICATIONS - 1
TOTAL 1970-71 72-74 75-77 78-80 81-85 LATF.R NEVER
NECESSARY 100-1~
75- .
50.
1
25- '
~
J • • • • • • • • •__• • •___
• I • • • • ••....•
0- LE '., _. _ _•.•.,__________
_. • • • • • • • • • • • •-• .
• .......
• • •..-.-r..........
•••• ••
I· · ····1
~
%
DEFINITE
ASSET
100-~
28.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.0
r~-~I······I
25-£
::> -.
0.0
..:::.:.:__.___
56.0
%
12.0
J· · · · · ·1 •••••• 1
O-~~..::~::_~.~~,:.:..:...::.:
USEFUL
14.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.0
40.0
_':'.,.:.::_~:.
14.0
0.0
100-1
75-1'
50-
2~:i,······,
................................................
.
LDE
. - ____
•• __......
__
w·..... ....,...____ ,.......
.~.__
%
100-'
6.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
75-i
6-1 ~
2.0
TOTAL
75-~
100-'1·
••••
~~-I~
%
100-~
0.0
~
0.0
0.0
0.0
'1
0.0
92.0
2.0
~
'
~
.
.
-
.
-
.
~
~
,
~
0.0
0.0
.1 ...... 1...... 1
0: r-..-.~_~
• • • • • • • • • • • • •....
• •Wt_.
• • • • •_, •.~_EWCW
•••••
NO USE
2.0
Do. • • • • •• • • • • • • • • • • • • • •. .•._
• • •_
• • • •,.• • • • • • • •--.uJ
•• • • • • • •_
• _• • • • • • • • •
_
~
2.0
.
5~1
25-'
%
2.0
_
USE
i
SO~1E
0.0
0.0
0.0
(l.0
;W;:'
56.0
...
•••••••
"_~~~.
30.0
0.0
75-~
50-~
2
5-1
0-£ , • • • • • • I ••••••••• • ••••• • •• • • • • • • • • •• • • • • • • , ••••••••••••••
L __ ' __ ~'-=.-...
8.0
0.0
......
0.0
-
2.0
IV.124
0.0
6.0
__ .....
0.0
....-._
0.0
\
"-~.
UTILITY REMOTE USAGE RECORDING DEVICE
(
IMPACT PROFITABLE USEFUL
WILL
ON
TO
TO
NOT BE
SOCIETY H1PLE~1ENTOR PUBLIC IMPLEMENTED
1.68
2.66
3.00
0.36
NUMBER OF REQUIRING APPLICATIONS - 1
TOTAL
1970-71 72-74
75-77
NECESSARY'IOO-1
o-l
DEFINITE
ASSET
LATER
•••••• ,
·· · · ·· · ·· · · · · ·· · ·· · ·
78.7
%
81-85
~'JEV.ER
., ......, ' .
~6:1········1
25-
78-80
0.0
2.1
2.1
55.3
·······.:":.::'::'"
14.9
2.1
2.1
100-1
75-,
50- w
0-,., ...... ,··.. ··-··-·.·.. ··.. ··.,......-,··.··················
25-~
17.0
%
USEFUL
100-i
75-.
50-,
25-'
0-
SOME USE
0.0
0.0
0.0
17.0
a..0
0.0
0.0
.................. ...................................... .
"
..-------------------
% ~-------------------------------------------2.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.1
0.0
100-1
75.... t
50-1
0.0
0.0
25-1~
0- •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••
I
0.0
%
TOTAL
••
l~~25 11···· .. 1.
0-
NO USE
0.0
o~o
0.0
0.0
.j······1
.
.,
• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • .'
% 97.9
100-i
~fl
0.0
2.1
'
2.1
0.0
• \I .: • •
'
74.5
0.0
0.0
.o,
.• :••-• • • • • • • • • • •
14.9
2.1
2.1
. .0.:.'. :"~ ... ·· ."....... ·····.. ·.··... ·-·
0- •••••••••••••••••• "•• • • • •
,
%
'
2.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
IV~125
.
0.0
2.1
'
0.0
0.0
WIDE-ANGLE SENSING DEVICE FOR AUTOMOBILE COLLISION AVOIDANCE
U1PACT
\~ I LL
PP-OFITABLE
USEFUL
TO
TO
~JOT BE
SOCIETY IMPLEI1El4TCr. PU3 LI C I ~:PLEtiErJT EO
ON
3.1:';
1.98
2.53
rlUl-WEf:' OF r.EQUIRItlG Ar'PLIC/\TIOfIS -
r'J:::CESSi\FtY
100-·
TOTAL
1970-71 72-7!1
1.56
1
75-77
78-30
~~=;I······I
~,
.
J~"-'_"--'_'
DEFIrJITE
/\SSET
· · · · · · · · · · · • • • · • • • ·___
•· · · · •· ·
___ '''J'''_''''~_~;''~'-~_'''''---''
%
32.4
100-:
75-:
r
'!r::vr.
, .... !._ ' ,"". I
LATEr-
J· · · · · · I·· ··.··I
r) t::_ .
'-:J
~
0- ~•
31-85
0.0
0.0
''''~"._':W''''
0.0
2.0
__...__
.
· • · .·.·Y·
• • ••.,".
........n......
...-r.:··'.~
35.3
~.~
39.2
5.9
:JO-~
')r.:
L..
R
:J-i
0-" J• • • • • • I ••••••••••••••••••••••.••••• · · · · · · . · · · . · · I •••••••
r.
%
USEFUL
100-~
Q~. . .,. . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . - _
15.7
0.0
0.0
~.......,. _ _ _. . . . . .
0.0'
0.0
I. ____ .....,___.
7.8
7.8
e'l'ltlrl:'. . . . . . . . . . .
0.0
75-.*
"\
50-~
•
25-.
• •••• • ••••• •••.
·• • • • •• • • •• •__
-
8--~
* •••••••• • • • •• • • ••• • ••••• • •••• • •
r,,",.~_
0.0
~.
SO~1E
US~:
"
100-:
0.0
0.0
0.0
__
0.0
W'
--..-.
0.0
""":MII
_~~_.~ __
0.0
Cl.O
75-~
50-~
25-•.•
0-,f\._
· · · · · · ·_·__
· ·...· · · · · · · · · · · · · ·_
· ·_
· ······························
....--:~...
2.0
%
TOTAL
OO-~ I' · · ... · ·1
0.0
M
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
_ . ,. .~ _ _ _
.._
2.0
1 75-.
J· · · · · ·
50-.
25-~
O-~
,
% 100.0
USE
·1
..__,___...• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • ,.="'"__•.,,"'.__-""_..,........_ ••____
• • • • •__
••
~"'"*_
I~O
I • • • • •
0.0
10o-~
Sl.JIIt~
0.0
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _""., _ _ _
0.0
0.0
2.0
43.1
49.0
75-.
50-I'
25-
· %
0.0
5.9
._-_
0-. · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · · ·....· -· ·
~-
0.0
0.0
0.0
IV.126
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
v.
OUTLINE OF THE STUDY
Four questionnaires were used in this study to pursue the line
of inquiry outlined in Figure 5.1. Examples of the questionnaires
are given in Figures 5.2-5.5. The first questionnaire (Figure 5.2)
presented a list of 57 new applications of data processing and asked
that the respondents judge their value in terms of "Impact on Society,"
"Profi tabili ty to t..~e Implementor," "Usefulness to the Public,"
"Other Reasons" and "Will Not be Implemented."
"Impact on Society"
\-Ias defined as "the effect of the life styles of people, their
relationships with each other, their perceptions of theMselves, or
the structure of their institutions." The respondents were also
asked to provide additional significant applications which would
occur before 1985 and which were not simple extensions of existing
applications. The responses to this questionnaire were collated
and 77 new applications were added. Ten of the original applications
were dropped because the panel judged them to be of low value.
Questionnaire two (Figure 5.3) presented the composite list of
applications and asked the respondents to provide estimates of
the dates by which they judged the applications would have a 10
percent, 50 percent, and 90 percent probability of implementation.
The degree of implementation to be judged was indicated in the
description of each application, for example "in 20 percent of the
metropoli tan areas." It \..,as desired that the estimates be technologically independent, but also recognized that the price/performance
implications of technological development might be the overriding
consideration in determining an implementation date.
For this
reason an arbitrary set of price/performance curves were included.
If price/performance was the governing concern, it was suggested that
the respondent pick his date by relating to the desired price/
performance on the curves.
In this way if batter price/performance
projections become available later, the estimated dates can be
adjusted accordingly.
Figure 5.6 shm.vs the curves used.
Respondents were also asked to evaluate their m..,n degree of expertise
by selecting from among the following options:
•
•
Expert working in the area
Generally familiar with aspects
Casually acquainted
Unacquainted
A second part of this questionnaire asked the respondents to
identify for each application critical data processing capabilities
required to make the application viable. The third part repeated
questionnaire one questions for the added applications.
The collated
responses resulted in dropping 11 of the added applications because
they were judged to have low values or were more properly included
as requirements.
Included were 368 capabilities; but because many
capabilities were suggested for multiple applications, the net was
75 unique capabilities.
V.l
The third questionnaire (Figure 5.4) listed the composite list
of applications and their associated capabilities. Also, for
each application a representation of the consensus to date of
the iMplementation date and the respondent's previous 50 percent
probability estimates were included. The respondents were asked
to re-estimate their 50 percent dates in view of the consensus
and to provide reasons for their responses if they ~vere still
outside the consensus or held strong feelings supporting the
consensus.
In addition, they \.;Tere asked to list for each
application factors outside of the data processing area whose
occurrence or non-occurrence would cause their estimates to be
either accelerated or retarded.
Por the capabilities, respondents were asked to evaluate the
importance of the capability and for those capabilities \vhich
'tv-ere quantified to indicate the true magnitude of the quantity
relative to the given value.
The latter was done by providing
columns \'lith multiples of ten 'toJhich could be used to indicate
hm'l Many times ten the values should be larger or smaller. For
each response the respondent was asked to indicate the thinking
that had lead to his answer.
The final questionnaire (Figure 5.5) included the applications
and capabilities as before with consensuses to date, reasons
and their previous responses.
Respondents were asked to reestimate their responses. in light of the consensus and reasons.
From the third questionnaire 93 accelerating and retarding
factors were identified of which 71 were unique. These factors
were listed in the fourth questionnaire and the panel was asked
to determine how casually related each was to the associated
application and to estimate when the factor would occur.
V.2
~
\
,.......,
.~.
;I
STUDY PLOH
,,"CTION
QUESTIONNAIRE 1
QUESTIOHllAIRE 2
QUESTIOl,NAIRE 3
I
QUESTIONNAIRE 4
I
pata Provided
~
- - - - - -
[Inquiry
.Suggested new
applications
~
.Added applications
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - .Estimate value
.Estimate value
,.
Data Provided
<:
w
~n~uir;
- - -
.Composite list of
applications
~
-
~~a~ ~e~ ~p~li--
-
-.~~n-miq~t-t~e;e-
cations would
you add?
be implemented?
.What is your
level of expertise?
Data Provided
~ -
-
-
~nquiry
-
-
-
.Composite list of
applications
.Consensuses of
date of irnplementation
.Composite list of
applications
.Consensuses of date
of implementation
• Reasons
I
.Re-estinate date
.Give reasons
.Identify accelerating and retarding
factors
.Re-estimate date
of implementation
I
.Composite list of
applications with
capabilities
.Composite list of
applications
.Accelerating and
retarding factors
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - I
~g~a~u~t~ ~h~
im: portance of the
capabilities
• '''lhat is the true
relative magnitude
of any quantities?
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
I
I
I"
"
-.;e~e~in~ ~h~
- - degree of casual
relationship
• When will the
factor occur?
.Composite list of
applications
~ -
I
II
I
I
.Composite list of
applications with
capabilities
.Consensuses
.Reasons
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
.What data processing capabilities
are required?
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
.Re-evaluate importance of the capabilities
.What is the true
relative magnitude
of any quantities?
II
f
' - -_ _ _ _ _ _--L_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _--L._ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _-L-_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ L _ . _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
~
Pigure 5.1
~~WM~~. .Mf~~~~,~
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .
Respondent No.
GUIDE/IBl·f STUDY
OF
ADVANCED APPLICATIONS
QQESTIONNAIRE 1 PART 1
Impact Of The Applications On
Society And The" Reasons For Implementation
.A. Suggested future data processing applications are listed below. Evaluate
their impact on society and the reasons
for implementation. Indicate your judgment by' checking the appropriate' column.
B. IMPACT
SOCIETY
f-4
~
U
""
~
~
.....
~
0
,;.:t
Z
t::J
~
f-4
f-4
.....
CI)
::£
>~
>~
~
.(
.....
~
~
~
~
40. Checkless Society -- The establishment
of point of transaction debiting in 20
percent of the metropolitan areas. This
I'%jI
application is an extension of the
.
....
Financial Utility to include terminals
~
~
at the point of sale so that at the time
11
(])
of sale, transactions can be recorded anc
authorized or ~ejected. Other services
...111
such
as automatic budget control are
N
possible by al~owing the system to
reject expenditures for items that would
overrun the previously established
budget.
~
C. REASONS FOR HfPLEMENT ATION ,
PROFITABLE
USEFUL
TO
TO
"'"'
:::
IMPLEMENTOR
PUBLIC
0
ON
.....
~
0
::z:
~
~
~
0
::z
~
>~
>~
~
.(
~
~
~~
::z
5~
~
Z
~
~
t::J
~
~
~
~
~
Z
.....
~
t::J
0
.(
::z
Z
~
~e:.
.
42. Automated Bankin~ Teller -- The
InstallatIon InO percent of the banks
of an unattended station to accomplish
the transactions now processed by a .
bank teller including the receipt and
delr--~y of cash.
L
~~
~~
f-4
f-4Z
O~
z::z
~
~~
~el.
~
.....
31: .....
,
.
41. Home Banking -- The utilization of the
home termInal in 1 percent of the homes
to accomplish banking transactions.
Credit transfer authorizations, changes
in preauthorizations, changes in savings
and investment plans, the establishment
of credit lines, changes in automatic
budget control, ~tc., could be made from
the home terminal after suitable identification of the individual and/or
terminal.
\
D.
,
,
I
\
-
r'
---.:,
i
rl
Respond<; .... i' No.
B~l'll"
::.
b
----
GUIDE/IBM DELPHI STUDY OF ADVANCED APPLICATIONS
QUESTIONNAIRE 2 PART 1
Chronology And Expertise
A. Applications
t]··,
[u·llo'·'~n·)
J\...<.........
\'<1.1
~
, ,.,,1 ('
""\'''1
='_ 11.[/\..1
.. -)
..
1(.
,
....
inu.;.'ca t eHhcn yvu think the 3pp 1 i-
cation will occur.
A=Earliest Possible (10% prob.)
B=Most likely (50% prob.)
C=Almost Certainly Before
(90% prob.)
hN
Ot4.;0'\
C)..-i
;::Q
: ~ I t.
I\'U 11
------.
No:::t
t- t-
Lfl tt- t-
oo 0
,...,
CJ)
C))
C))
I
r-1
I
t- 00
r-1
I
..-i Lfl
00 00
C))
,...,
I
~
C)
h
~<
~
C)
P-.
r~
:z:
x
~
~.r-i
h
u
....bJ
s::
f1
CD
U1
•
W
U1
,....
'
c"j
:-: e
I
~ ~'I
~
~
U. ~;
M'~
C)~
C)
~
~'H
(l)
;;:-
<
..-i:::
h..c
~C)
~
'J~
r-; ...:::
..-i +-'
h
4..;..-i
<
if;
+-'
E ()
('jp..
~
h
I
rl
,.., U
~ro
o
Y"
.,
h':::;l
~a;
hLfl
a; 00
c~
.
':.IJ
(l)
f~':.t ;..... '-""'.....
~ ,- ~ ........
.~ .:2 a rC'z. :
1r . .
QUESTIONNAIRE 3
r------~------------------------------------'-'-·-'i
-------I
1_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _~A:!P.!:P!:.L:..:IC~A~T;.;!I~O~N...;D!;!,:E=.:S~C:;:R~~i.!:P.:.T=.:IO~N!...._ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
40. Checkless Society
The establishment
of pOInt Of transaction debiting in 20
percent of the metropolitan areas. This
application is an extension of the
,Financial Utility to include terminals
at the point of sale' so that at the time
of sale, transactions can be recorded and
authorized or rejected. Other services
such as automatic budget control are
I
PART 1.
possible by allowing the system to
reject expenditures for items that wQuld
overrun the previously established
budget.
I
MOST LIKELY DATE OF IMPLEMENTATION
rShown at the right is the grou~ consensus obtained to
with your previous most hkely(SO% Frob.) date
II. date
circled. In light of this consensus indicate your rer cstima~e of the most likely date by checking under the
I Rppropriatc dates.
1970-71 72-74
75-77
78-80
L
81-85
f,/U
LATER llEVF:1R
I
your new estimate is outside the
!'------.----~------------,-------~--------------------------~
consensus or if you have strong reasons
jf
I
i
5upporting your position, list on the
d:;htthc reasons why the group should .
?ccept your viewpoints.
c',e' 1;(,;,( to th," right if a change in
the arLi:rcry price performance curves'
~ould ~~use your estimate to change.
~il'~:'e l..J:' be other technological, busi~C5S, ~01itical, or social factors whose
~ -:UTr~~ce or non-occurrence would cause
i "'~,:r estim;1te to change. List those
C:!~:::ck
A change in the 'price performance curves.
List other factors:
0
I
,
J
~~~~~~=t="=r=~==t=o==t=h=e==r=i=g=h=t=.====================~============~============================================~~:; ~
---_._--_.
P.;Wf 2.
DATA PROCESSINr:
ehe importance of each capabil. Fs'.:iT.!Jt,.:
by ::flecking a column in group l.
I
I
Fur ;;apabili ties •.;hich are' quantified
check a column in group 2 to
i j.nd.icatc your juJgment of the true
I
rela'dve, to stated quantity.
I
,
I
I
--
I
I
"I
Vl
<'
~!~
o
0
0
C> <1l Vl 010
0
0;:,
• ,.....;_.~ -f . .
Z"",~rfJZ
~
C/)
~. ~
~ ~ ~ g~;
I
10
I
:7. ,..:.o,:=, -
; Positive user identification at the terminal (e. g. fingerprint. cre4it card,
retina-print. voice-print. etc.
,
I .vlass
l
!I and
Low
storage of 100 billion brtes •
cost terminal for point of sale entry
inquiries $200-$300 Eurchase.
i
r Network
control.
communication interface
i \Iassive
lines.
I
100,000
I! Advanced
I
data base management with particular emphasis on security.
I
I
High reliability and availability. No
discernible downtime at the terminals of
,i longer than 1 minute.
"
I,
I
Figure 5.4
V.6
r
oo
I
(
QUESTIONNAIRE 4
APPLICATION
DESCRIPTIO~
Chncl:lnss Soci.ety -- Th estnhlishment of nnint oj' tr:1.nsnctinn dehitin!'! in 20 nercent of the
metronolltan Arens. This Rnnlicntion i!I an extension of the Fin:1.Tlci:1.1 Utility to include terminals
at the noint of sale ~o that at the tiMe of snle, transactions can he recorded and authorized or
rejncted. Other services such as automatic hud!!et contrnl arp nnssihle by allowing the sYstem to
reject exnenditllres for items that would overrun thf1 nr€'viollsly estnhlished bllcl~et.
I
1. DATA PROCESSING CAPABILITIES REQUIRED FOR H1PLEHE:-lTATION
! Jn
,,"ie"! n;' tl-.e consens:!s at the ri~ht and the reasons be lo'~ rc -cs t irnn tc the i !:mor\ tancc tl':1.d relative mar:nitude of the canabili ties.
Indicate your responses by
chcc1{in'! the annronriate columns.
I
I
.
"'E()lII~ED
CAPABILITIES
!Positive
user identification at the ter,. minal (e.f:. fing:rnrin!, credit card,
retina-orlnt, vOlce-nrlnt, etc.
! '·lass
l
storage
of
L
M
U
100 billlon -'?ytes.
LiMT
• Lm1 cost terminal for point of sale entry
i and inquiries $200-$300 purchase.
10 times more -- Purchase prices of $600- L U
1,000 can nrohably he justified by 1980.
I
Li:rv
M
U
Nexwork control.
\lassive communication interface 100 ;000
M
i
l
I
Llu
i lines.
IL
Advanced data hase management with particular emnhasis on security.
M,
10 times less -- Un to 5 minutes downtime
may be peraissible if no more than once
L
a month.
Jligh reliability and availability_ No
discernible downtime at the termlnals of
longer than 1 minute.
1M
'.
~
I
I
I
I
J
I
I
I
i
I
I
I
LiMU I
I
!
IL U!
i dItil I
! ! ! i IiiI! i i II I!
!
'
I lUI
I
,.
.
~
I".
I
;1
I
! !
!
Iii :
I!
1
j
I
! IIi
._-r_______....:..?.:..:A:.:.?.:.:T~2:..:.:........;:..::.:r;...:;lP...;L:::.:p,lEm ,\Tr 0:; :1j\fB
---------......;.---.,1
- i
-'~---..:-c-'---r~:-------. ------------·--~
~-;;~;:7~')ttl:;
'-::1(',:,r :-~n,i t~~:l~C:~l-:
I
I
I
h_,J~0\)~i;"";
I
C-,):=;
:-'-':lSGns ilt t)~() rir.ht,
Earfty
;:,r -:' ~ t ::'1a tc t':e rt!l to
anks will move into this area in search of new areas for profit.
c .. oc':.urrcncc.
(Use I - An independent agency may not be required.
"\" = F)', ",ah
'
l" = 5 ')~, Pr::Jh. and
La ter
! 'C' = 'lG~ Pr'Jh,)
-:--rnability of banks to agree on a common system.
'i('\.r
Re- Public re-education.
"'_
,lrsp. Con. ~st. - Judicial precedents to allow bank listings as proof of payment.
11~'i'J"71[
l 1 n 2" 7.: --+---4---1 Never
), ~:.1~S-7;;
I
:--r:ack of public acceptance due to loss of float and reluctance
J,')7~'-8')[
,L
to change.
~ 1~~1-8~~i___~MU~_~___~
I
t-;
j
:J:\T:=~
I
!~\_;:~\'~T:_;:__~;_~~!__~:_J~__~~_______~~_~__~_~~____-~-'~~o.c-;--r-~-r--;--r-~~r-~
the ;:';';cct of the occurrence of each accelerating or retardI.::: .!
!! I
'
f actor on t J10 ann 1
'"
~L-:: c'
Cl
,i~c:
lcatlon
lmn .. ementatlon d ate b y c,h ec.k'1ng one 0..f : :
..:; ::'I'~
~ 0::
,t::o .C;l~'''. 5",,0 c()lumn5 at the right. Estimate l~hen the f~ctor will occur C "'l'·' r- "''=' . . . N .....
OOOOrloct.:.:
;-_",
r--..
co
! ~~cic:'.tc
CJ
t'
•
,f
U'l ~;; './: ~:::
.....
1:2 fi.? 6~:5 ~
!
D"!
i
you may include below any that now occur to you.
c'lcc.: lr:t: one of the elate columns.
. ~ ~
!---·---------------------------------r··!'.
t-;o accelerating or retarding factors were submitted, If you desire, I
I
!
i
c
cl
(JJ
1
I
.
J
i
I
;
I
'<:t
~
.....
LI'l .....
I
~
:;
I
I~
t'-..
.
I
\r.
~
1:-'
II
-....
:;"
!
I
LL
.~-------------------------------~I-- ~~~~~~
!
Figure 5.5
I!
ARBITRARY PRICE PERFORMANCE-
1000X
--.-.-~. --..--_.--!-l___
!
.----10,.-.--- .---+--I
i
.
-.
i
.-----'I----l~~=--'--
1'--
I
I
j
i
.. - - - - - . - ...... -, ~.. -- ..
i
I
---~----- ..
.-----.--~
.--.---.----1--.------.... --.-.. . - ......-..-. -.
I
--+-_._
..
I
.
._.-.-. __ ."-'-'--
--=-'~=------ II ~=,-~ ~---.~--,-- ~-~ -~~-~~-----=-~--I~---~-~
I
!
.-.-- .. t-~. -_ .... -
i
------.. .-r--.
. .------..--.-.- .....-.--- --........ -.: -.-.
I
--------1---------4-_',
_- - - ' - - - •..
j
,!
I
,I
i
I
i
I
I
.J-..QO~
·t····
-- . !
~--------~--------~
-----,.~~ .• ~
.
_._------..
.. -.. --.--+------...-.. ---. -.----i------... ---+--------Pl""-F--
---:--.1'--.---- --.-- ..... .
,
•. _. ....,.. .. __ ....._. _.. ..
1
_-_._.----;;....'- - - 1
I
i
I
i
___ .._. _.+
'M."_'
,_,"~'.
I
,
!
1
----_., -.- -.. -. . !
:
~
.- --._._-_ .. _+--_._------_._..__ ..-,-----.. __ . -...
!
lOX
-----+----
---'1',-
___- - - i . -_ _ _ _._-+-_ _
1970
.~
1975
Figure 5.6
1980
V.8
1985
VI. DATA ANALYSIS
(
The Respondent Panel Distribution
An effort was made to insure that all areas of data processing
applications \'lere represented in the panel. Figure 6.1 lists the
area groupings that emerged and two measures of the distribution
of experts among those who responded to the last questionnaire.
The first column enumerates those who would appear to be experts
based on their company or organization affiliation and/or job
title.
The second column shows the counts of experts based on
the respondent's self-evaluation.
As was to be expected, there
are more experts identified in the second column than in the
first.
This is because many of the respondents felt confident in
areas which they were not immediately associated.
RESPONDENT ANALYSIS
OCCUPATION
(
AGRICULTURE
AIRLINES
BUSINESS ASSISTANCE
Co.HPUTER ASSISTED RESEARCH
DISTRIBUTION AND RETAIL
ECOLOGY
EDUCATION
FINANCIAL AND INSURANCE
FREIGH'r TRANSPORTA'fION
GOVERNHENT SERVICES
HOHE TBRHINALS
INFORHATION SYSTE~,1S
IHFORHATION UTILITIES
JUDICIAL AUD r~EGISLATIVE
MANUFAC'l'URING AND PROCESS
!1EDIA
o
14
2
24
29
2
17
3
1
31
12
2
20
6
21
21
11
31
16
o
2
4
o
3
5
26
1
18
18
19
24
4
~-1EDICAL
o
o
15
37
14
4
26
8
OFFICE ASSISTANCE
PUBLIC AND PRIVATE rfRANSIT
UTILITIES
Figure 6.1
VI.l
SELF-ANALYSIS
Consensus Analysis
One of the principles of the Delphi Technique is that the process
should cause a convergence of the consensuses.
Figure 6.2 represents
the results of iterating the questions on the implementation date
and the necessity and magnitude of the capabilities.
/
cmmlmsus:cs
IMplementation
Date
Converged
Initially One Period Wide
no Change
Diverged
~ledian Shift
Three-period Consensus
85
o
23
o
7
1
Capabilities
230
103
218
4
10
6
Figure 6.2
In both cases the majority either converged or started at one
period width and, therefore, couldn't converge. Only a very
few actually diverged or remained as wide as three periods.
Experience with Delphi Studies in the past has indicated that
in general the width of date projection consensuses is approximately
equal to the median date of the projection, i.e., a projection with
a median of 1980 can be expected to have a width of ten years.
Figure 6.3 graphs the median iMplementation date of the consensuses
against their width (the numbers represent the number of consensuses
falling at a point.)
If the results folloY-Ted the expectation,
they would fall approximately on .the diagonal line.
In fact, they,
with the exception of one, either fall close to the line or in the
lower right hand side. This indicates that most consensuses were
as good or better than could be expected.
VI.2
/
".
(
IMPLEMENTATION
DAT~
CONSENSUS WIDTH
(
1
til
~
~
:>t 15
z
H
r"I
:E:
H
8
1
10
2,
6
5
3
1970
1975
22
1985
1980
YEAR
c
Figure 6 .3
VI.3
LATER
NEVER
Respondents were asked to evaluate their own degree of expertise.
In the detailed printouts of Section 3, the consensuses of the
experts are compared to the group as a whole. 'rhe results of that
comparison are shown in Figure 6.4.
Expert Consensus vs. Group Consensus
Expert
Consensus Nas:
Same Hedian
Response
Narrm-ler
The Same Width
Different Hedian
Response
76
6
389
70
8
2
82
19
Same but Offset
v7ider
Figure 6.4
In addition, no expert median was more than one period away
from the group median. From this we conclude that there
is little difference bebleen expert and group opinions.
Therefore, group opinions are used in all of the results.
IBB versus Customer Consensus
During the study IBI'1\. and Customer responses were processed T,-li thout
distinction bet\'leen the two. The analysis consensuses were recalculated separately for the two groups. Comparison of the two
shm'led almost identical results for date and capability value
consensuses.
Comparison With Other Studies and Published Articles
It is possible to evaluate the results of the study by comparing
them to those obtained in other similar but independent studies.
The author knov7s of blO other efforts which closely parallel this
study: In 1968 r Parsons & Williams Incorporated conducted a
study using participants in FILB 68, an international seminar on
file organization held in Denmark; and The Institute fFor the Future
(IFF) of aiddletown, Connecticut is conducting a study of future
risks associated with computer based systems for Skandia Insurance
Company. Ltd., of Stockholm, SHeden.
Both studies use the Delphi Technique: however, the Parsons &
Nilliams study had only blO iterations, and the IFF' study results
are only available through the third iteration as of this date.
VI.4
'"
PARALLEL STUDIES OF FUTURE APPLICATIONS
C
STUDY* 1970. · . . 75. . .
G/I
•
•
IFF
f
P&W
r Pollution
Prediction
Automated Design
Engineering
G/I
IFF
P&W
ll.
G/I
IFF
P&W
Automated Roadways G/I
IFF
P&W
Automated Stock
Transfer
G/I
IFF
P&W
Automated Vehicle
Diagnostic
Centers
G/I
IFF
P&W
Automobile Co11ision Avoidance
Systems
G/I
IFF
P&W
Checkless Society
G/I
IFF
P&W
Clinical Decision
Support System
G/I
IFF
P&W
*
(~
..
. LATER
I
NEVER
~
• •
I
·
·
·
... .
·•
I.
•
..t
·
•
•.
•
..•
•
•
I
•
I
G/I
IFF
P&W
('ltomated Traffic
:ontro1
.
a
Automated Landings G/I
and Takeoffs
IFF
P&W
Automated Mass
Transit System
. 80. . • . 85. .
L
--'..
•
I
•
•
•
•.
•
•
I
...
.
L
I'
•
•..
•
f
•
•·
•
I
..
Ii a
_
• •
•-
..L
-'-
.J
.
G/I
GUIDE/IBM-Study of Advanced Applications.
IFF
Institute for the Future Study - A Delphi inquiry into the
future risks of computer-based systems.
P&W
Parsons & Williams-Forecast 1968-2000 of computer developments and applications.
Figure 6.5
VI.5
Computer Assisted
Instruction Educational Inst.
STUDY* 1970 . . • . 75 . . . . 80 . . . • 85
.. . . . . LATER
• •
G/I
1
IFF
..
P&W
•
·
•
.. •
•
Computer CQordina- G/I
ted Testing of
IFF
Medical Drugs
P&W
.. .
&.
Computerized Medi- G/I
cal Test Analy- IFF
P&W
sis
Home Computer
Assisted
Instruction
G/I
IFF
P&W
Inflight Monitor w
ing and Diagnostics of Aircraft
G/I
IFF
P&W
Nationwide Air
Traffic Control
G/I
IFF
P&W
Out Patient
Monitoring
G/I
IFF
P&W
Personal Data
Bank
G/I
IFF
P&W
I
J
•
•
••
••
.
•
"•
•
••
'"
•
•
•· .•
•·
•.
•.
I
·
.
I
..
•
~
Supermarket Check- G/I
out Systems
IFF
P&W
•
I·
·
I
•
I
universal Reserva- G/I
tion Systems
IFF
P&W
*
NEVER
I
•
Gil
GUIDE/IBM-Study of Advanced Applications.
IFF
Institute for the Future Study - A Delphi inquiry into the
future risks of computer-based systems.
P&W
Parsons & Williams-Forecast 1968-2000 of oomputer developments and applications.
Figure 6.5 (con't)
VI.6
(
/'
.~
Consequently, the width of consenSUR in both results is relatively
wide. Nevertheless, the results of the three studies are compared
in Figure 6.5 for those applications which are common. The results
show considerable agreement, particularly, in vie\V' of different
descriptions of the applications which could lead to differing
interpretations as to when an application would be implemented.
Therefore, we conclude that the panel selection and study organization
is valid since it produced results comparable to other independent
studies \>li th similar objections.
Another way to validate results is to compare them to published
articles relating to the applications. Two types of articles
are applicable: those reporting pilot applications efforts
underway and those containing predictions of future applications.
Below is a partial list of articles considered by the investigators:
Subsistence and Reference
Studv Result
*
• Home Printout of Newspapers by 1979
Saturdav Re,rie\>l, October 10, 1970
1981-85
• Computer Assisted Publishing - 1980
Saturday Review, October 10, 1970
1978-80
• Computerized Job Banks in 42 Cities - No~V'
U. S. News & World Report, July 27, 1970
1975-77
• Automatic Ticket Vendor Pilot Tested
EDP Weekly, October 12, 1970
1975-77
• Supermarket Checkout Pilot System
Wall Street Journal, August 7, 1970
1978-80
• Study Contract for Legislative Information
System
Forbes, October 1, 1970
1978-80
• Assembly Line Robots for C.Jl' s Vega
Business Week, August 8, 1970
1981-85
• Two Airlines Announce Baggage Handling Systems
New York Times, i~ovember 8, 1970
1978-80
On the basis of this limited sample it appears that the
estimates of future dates generally match other predictions,
whereas, successful pilot efforts of many of the applications
make the above dates appear conservative.
c
VI.7
APPBUDIX A
(
Applications Deleted from the Oriqinal List
The following applications were dropped from the study because
the panel judged them to be of relatively low value. Their
elinination from the study does not mean they may not occur
and in fact some of the applications have been incorporated
in the scenarios. They are listed alphabetically within area
groupings and the value printout is shown.
AIRLINES
Automated Ground Control of Airplanes
flILL
IMPACT PROFITABLE USEFUL
NOT BE
TO
ON
TO
SOCIETY IMPLEMENTOR PUBLIC IMPLEMENTETJ
1.86
2.15
-0.89
2.09
The utilization of automated dockings, undocking,
and taxiing of commercial aircraft at the ten
largest metropolitan airports.
EDUCATION
Automated Student ID/Credit SysteM
(
ivILL
IMPACT PROFITABLE UBEFUL
NOT BE
TO
ON
TO
SOCIETY IMPLEM.ENTOR PUBLIC IMPLEMENTED
1.31
2.25
-0.33
1. 86
The implementation in I percent of the nation's
colleges of a system to capture billing, attendance,
and security data at the point of transaction
(cafeteria, library, bookstore, athletic events,
etc.) and maintain updated files in appropriate
portions of students' records.
Classroom Response System
flILL
IMPACT PROFITABLE USEFUL
NOT
BE
TO
TO
ON
IMPLEMENTED
PUBLIC
SOCIETY IMPLEMENTOR
1. 75
1. 77
-0.52
2.20
The installation of small desk terminals in I percent
of the secondary and college lecture halls. The
system would provide instantaneous monitoring of
class comprehension by summarizing and displaying
the responses to questions at the teacher's console.
(/
A.I
Universal University Enrollment and Schedulin2 System
vlILL
!!tPACT PROFITABLE USEFUL
ON
TO
TO
NOT BE
SOCIETY IMPLEMENTOR PUBLIC IMPLEMENTED
1.73
2.17
-0.28
2.28
A system in 20 percent of the metropolitan areas for
the processing of college enrollment and scheduling.
The system will interrogate college openings and
requirements, accept students' applications, select
courses, and issue class schedules.
FINANCIAL
Automated Banking 'feller
r.,ILL
IMPACT PROFITABLE USEFUL
NOT
BE
TO
TO
ON
IMPL
E!1EN
TED
PUBLIC
IMPLEMENTOR
SOCIETY
1. 30
2.36
-0.74
1. 79
The installation in 20 percent of the banks of an
unattended station to accomplish the transactions
now processed by a bank teller including the
receipt and delivery of cash.
Automated Currency Arbitrage System
TIILL
IMPACT PROFITABLE USEFUL
NOT BE
ON
TO
TO
SOCIETY IMPLEMENTOR PUBLIC D1PLEMENTED
1.28
2.37
-0.53
1.56
The establishment of a system that would provide realtime, worldwide, money market rates and provide links
to financial institutions from multiple nations so
that money "buy" and "sell" orders could be processed
expeditiously.
GOVERNHEUT SERVICES
Centralized Selective Service Administration
IMPACT PROFITABLE USEFUL
flILL
TO
TO
ON
NOT BE
SOCIETY IMPLEMENTOR PUBLIC IMPLENENTED
1. 93
1.47
-0.86
1. 73
The creation of a computer-assisted centralized
selective service system to replace the function
of local boards and insure equitable administration
of the draft.
A.2
/
~./
,
Precomputed InCOMe Tax System
IMPACT PROFITABLE USEFUL
ilILL
ON
TO
NOT BE
TO
SOCIETY IMPLEMENTOR PUBLIC IMPLE!!ENTED
1. 85
2.21
-0.39
2.67
The Internal Revenue Service will mail a completed
tax return to the taxpayer based on income reports
and standard deductions. The taxpayer would have
the option of signing and returning it or of recomputing his own taxes.
state Information Systems
IMPACT PROFITABLE USEPUL
fl.TLL
ON
TO
TO
NOT BE
SOCIETY IMPLEMENTOR PUBLIC IMPLEMENTED
2.55
(
1.88
-0.70
2.21
The consolidation by ten states of the various
information systems that support state governments
into an integrated information system. Common data
between various support systems would be logically
shared, but not necessarily centralized, and the
system would interface to local information systems
to provide and receive information.
Hor'1E TERHINAL
Automated j',leal Preparation
fvILL
IMPACT PROPITABLE USEFUL
NOT BE
TO
TO
ON
SOCIETY IMPLEMENTOR PUBLIC IMPLEMENTED
1. 26
0.80
-2.11
0.74
The availability of automated meal preparation in I
percent of the homes. Specially packaged food products would be automatically prepared in accordance
with a stored menu. The system would maintain its
own inventory and either order automatically via
the Home Shopping Service or provide a shopping list.
Automated Plebiscite and Polls
IMPACT PROFITABLE USEFUL
flILL
ON
TO
TO
NOT BE
SOCIETY IMPLEMENTOR PUBLIC IMPLEMENTED
2.21
c
1. 39
-1. 45
1.73
The utilization of horne terminals in 75 percent of the
homes to conduct public opinion polls, surveys,
plebiscites, and elections.
A.3
Classified Advertising System
.vlILL
IMPACT PROFITABLE USEFUL
NOT BE
ON
TO
TO
SOCIETY IMPLEMENTOR PUBLIC IMPLEMENTED
1.48
2.06
0.48
2.16
The availability via the home terminal in I percent
of the homes of a data bank containinq classified
advertising.
Both input and selective retrieval
would be ·featured.
Computerized Participatory Games
Il1PACT PROFITABLE USEFUL
rlILL
ON
TO
TO
NOT BE
SOCIETY IMPLEMENTOR PUBLIC IMPLEMENTED
1.17
1.35
1.02
-1.37
The availability via the home terminal in I percent
of the homes of such participatory games as bridge,
chess, etc. The system . ."ould connect those desiring
to play, conduct the game and, if desired, participate
as a player.
Do-It-Yourself Diagnostic Services
IMPACT PROFITABLE USEFUL
flILL
ON
TO
TO
NOT BE
SOCIETY IMPLE!1ENTOR PUBLIC IMPLEMENTED
1.42
1.80
1.27
1!he availability via the home tenninal of I percent of
the households of a service to interactively diagnose
appliances malfunction or other household problems,
provide instructions for repair, provide lists of parts,
recommend local sources of !?arts, and/or recommend
local repair services.
1.39
Home Banking
rlILL
IMPACT PROFITABLE USEFUL
NOT
BE
TO
ON
TO
IMPLEMENTED.
PUBLIC
SOCIETY IMPLEMENTOR
-1.74
1. 37
1.89
1.31
The utilization of the home terminal in I percent of
the homes to accomplish banking transactions. Credit
transfer authorizations, changes in pre-authorizations,
changes in savings and investment plans, the establishment of credit lines, changes in automatic budget
control, etc., could be made from the home terminal
after suitable identification of the individual and/or
terminal.
A.4
Horne Electronic Hail Service
frILL
IMPACT PROFITABLE USEPUL
ON
TO
NOT BE
TO
SOCIETY IMPLEMENTOR PUBLIC IMPLEMENTED
1. 9 5
1. 59
1. 74
-1. 65
The availability of electronic mail service via the
hone terminal to 5 percent of the homes.
Horne Terminal Financial and ComEutational Services
fIT LL
I!IPACT PROFITABLE USEFUL
NOT
BE
TO
TO
Oil
SOCIETY IMPLEMENTOR PUBLIC IMPLEMENTED
0.67
2.17
2.08
}\.vailability via the home terminal in 1 percent of
the homes of services to assist in such financial
areas as budgeting, tax accounting, insurance and
investment planning, as well as general computational
requirements.
1. 62
Horne Hork Centers
(
Il1PACT PROFITABLE USEFUL
WILL
NOT
DE
TO
ON
TO
IMPLEMENTED
PUBLIC
SOCIETY IMPLEMENTOR
2.20
2.13
2.38
-0.84
Use by 0.1 percent of the non-production vmrk force of
hone terminals as at least part-time home work centers.
The system \Jould provide all or most of the resources
the employee needs to accomplish his job such as:
secretarial service, internal mail service, filing,
information retrieval and inquiry, computer access,
etc. Face-to-face meetings and other needs to be
at a physical location would be scheduled as business
trips are now.
Menu Preparation Service
flILL
IMPACT PROFITABLE USEFUL
NOT
BE
TO
TO
ON
IMPLEMENTED
PUBLIC
IMPLEMENTOR
SOCIETY
1. 22
(
1.10
1.16
-1. 44
The availability via a terminal to 1 percent of the
homes of menu preparation service. The housewife
controls the menu preparation by listing groundrules
as to price, favorite and/or undesired food items, and
special occasions. The menu provided can be adjusted
by substitutions and additions. The system also
provides recipes and shopping lists.
A.5
INForu'ffiTION UTILITIES
Automated Patent Search
FIILL.
IMPACT PROFITABLE USEFUL
NOT BE
TO
TO
ON
SOCIETY IMPLEMENTOR PUBLIC IMPLEMENTED
-1.15
1. 59
2.20
1. 46
The availability of a system capable of accepting a
patent application, analyzing it and searching the
complete files of the U. S. Patent Office automat±~
cally. The search would be from terminals located
in law firms, corporate law departments, etc.
National Directorv
rt
vlILL
PROFITABLE USEFUL
NOT BE
TO
TO
SOCIETY IMPLEMENTOR PUBLIC IMPLEMENTED
-0.80
2.13
1. 58
1. 45
Existence of a computerizeu national directory for
locating addresses and telephone numbers of individuals
given their names. Inquiry is by mail or home terminal.
If1PACT
Oll
Professional Buyer Service
r1ILL
IMPACT PROFITABLE USEFUL
NOT BE
TO
TO
ON
SOCIETY IMPLEMENTOR PUBLIC IMPLENENTED
2.23
1. 57
-0.69
2.14
'rhe utilization by I percent of the consumers of the
services of a professional buyer who would utilize his
data banks of product prices, availability, vendors,
vendor performance, etc., to make the most advantageous
purchases for the consumer much as an industrial buyer
functions today.
MANUFACrl'URING
&
PROCESS
Automated Service Stations
WILL
IMPACT PROFITABLE USEFUL
NOT BE
TO
TO
ON
SOCIETY IMPLEMENTOR PUBLIC INPLEMENTED
1. 42
2.20
-1.07
1.90
The conversion of 20 percent of the service stations
to dispense automatically gasoline and oil for auto ...
mobile.s. rrhe station is activated via credit card
vii th credit checks and control of the station directed
from a central computer.
A.6
Electronic Filing Systems
f-1ILL
IT!PACT PROF.TTABLE UBEFUL
NOT
BE
TO
TO
ON
I!1PL
ElJEN
TED
PUBLIC
SOCIETY IMPLEMENTOR
-0.29
1. 45
2.
£)
5
1.94
1he use of 0.1 percent of clerical personnel of systems
that file documents in electronic and/or image form.
Indexing could be automatic or as directed by the clerk.
Retrieval and printout is computer controlled.
Personal Information Services
FILL
n1PACT PROFITABLE USEFUL
NOT BE
TO
ON
TO
SOCIETY IMPLEMENTOR PUBL.TC IMPLEMENTED
1.19
1.98
-0.67
1. 43
The availability to 1 percent of the executives of a
personalized information system. The system would
assist the executive by providing an auxiliary memory
for names and descriptions of people and organizations
he deals with, personal appointment calendar, correspondence files, current activity file, etc., by providing
computational and analysis services and bv providing
skills and procedure support.
CAP1\.BIr.. ITIES
The following application was dropped because it was belatedly
judged to be more properly included as a required capability.
Discovery Systems
rv ILL
IMPACT PROFITABLE USEFUL
NOT
BE
TO
ON
TO
IMPLEMENTED
SOCIETY IMPLEMENTOR PUBLIC
2.57
1.94
-1. 21
2.32
The existence of a computer system that will, with
human interaction, be capable of discovering underlying
properties and principles that govern the behavior of
complex systems and natural phenomenon.
(
A.7
APPENDIX B
(
The. list below identifies those respondents l.,rho have allmTed
us to use their names.
lir.
s.
O. Albert
- IBH Corporation - DPD
~lr
• Uonald H. Bein
- A. O. Smith Corporation
:~lr
• R. D. Bernhard
- Continental Can Company, Inc.
:lr. Roger
(
HJ.::SPONDlmTS
- Atlantic Richfield Company
BorneMan
~·l.
Dr. Ronald Brady
- Syracuse University
;"Ir. Allen ...T. Burris
- The Horthern 'frust Co •
,-lr. J. E. Chapman
- IBri Corporation - DPD
Hr. C. L. Charles
- IBfl Corporation - DPD
Hr. i\lbert F. Collard
- Eastern Air Lines, Inc. Information
Systems Dept.
~lr
• Roger Creel
>lr. D. F.
- Employers Insurance Co.
. Daubenspeck
- Inri Corporation - DPD
Dr. Robert DeBaun
~tl:' •
- America Cynamid
P. A. Dolan
- IBN Corporation - FE Division
1,lr. G. J. Evans, Jr.
- IBM Corporation - DPD
Hr. Jonn Filchak
- Southern New England Telephone Co.
>lr. Ralph A. Hawkins
- IBM Corporation - DPD
Hr. Robert
lIr.
v.
~'lillian
Head
- Consultant
Herbert
- CNA Insura;nce, Programming Sys tens
Hr. James A. Hodskins
- AT&T - Management Sciences
Hr. LT. A. Hoede
- IBM 'Norld Trade Corporation
Dr.
s.
L. Jamison
- IBH Corporation - DPD
:'lr. R. B. Johnson
- IBM Corporation - ASDD
!'lr. A. Katz
- IBH Corporation - FSD
!'ir. Robert C. King
- International Div.- Mobil Oil
B.l
Dr. P.. G.
... ID'l Corporation - ."'.S;);)
l~okat
:lr. George J. Kost
... Bastern Data Center - Kerinecott
Cop?er Co.
'.lr. E. F. Krieg
-
:lr. :jick Landin
- rJnion Paci:ic ?ailroad
::r. EorY.. Lee
- Royal Globe !n3urance Connanies
Ir. Gordon H. Lossing
~'ir •
,
r'"
....
. . :lagnuson
.,
:~airet
:.lr. Charles
:~r
-
~\
..'ole
The
~o~
L~'l
i70rld '.:'rade Cornoration
- Deere &
. H.ichard :lcCoy
'·!r. Joseph "
Cornoration - CHI)
Er!
Che~ical
Connan~
0:
- Cni vcrsi ty
.~:eh In.ann
Co~?any
- Pennsalt
~}isco:13in
Chc~ical
Co~nany
:lr. Robert :tilne
- Atlantic ?ich:ield
;·tr. G. E. dace
-
: lr. H.obert E.
r;f'~
~'Iorld
':'rade Corporation
- Readers Digest
~;elson
:·ir. Arthur :iesse
- Ford : rotor
:·1r. \:illard Olsen
- ::ort:-:. Anerica:1 p.oc!::iell Cornoration
r'
0r. u.
G. Osborn
Connan~'
13'.: Cornoration
:!r. J.
T.1
"0
Padian
-
:·lr. J.
.1.
Pomerene
... 12:: Cornoriltion -
t·
;;JP::J
13:: Cornoration - DP:J
C:~')
~·~r
• :1'orT.lan J. ?-ean
- s.
.~lr
• P.onald ?ichards
- Technical Support - Associated
Hospital Services, Inc.
~.
IIf:
:lr. S. E. Rifkin
Leidesdorf & Co.
~'7orld
'.:'rade Cornoration
13:: Corporation -
c;r,:,
'1r. Rudy. L. :Ruggles, Jr.
-
:Ir. Vial ter J. Schroeder
- A.T.
: lr. p... E. Scott
- ILl:: Cornoriltion - S:J0
:lr. Robert SeaHright
- Interactive
B.2
~erney
&
Conpan~,
~ata
Inc.
Cor?oration
are K.
(
u.
-
Shroff
IBH Corporation
-
ASDD
r·lr. Donald Stanford
- Cincinnati
- Aetna Life
- Doubleday
!ir. T. B. Steel, Jr.
- Private Consultant
:1r. P. A. Tattersall
- Iml Corporation - DPD
~lr •
Stanley E. Sinclair
are Irwin J. Sitkin
Hr. L. R.
• Ray
Hr. Robert A.
are F.
v.
~Villis
&
Electric Co.
Casualty
Company
&
-
Hile~
:1r. Allen p.
&
&
- IB:1 Corporation - ASDD
- Dunn Bradstreet, Inc.
~'1alters
1·1r. l'7illiam F. Ward
~lr
Gas
, Jr.
Aerospace Corporation
Insurance Company of North America
- First
~7indish
-
vlolford
(
B.3
II3~1
:lational Bank of Chicago
Corporation
- DPD
APPENDIX C
(
Pages
111.8
111.36
111.11
111.12
111.13
111.128
III.134
111.76
111.30
LII.77
111.135
111.136
111.165
111.145
111.103
111.137
111.78
111.166
111.138
111.54
111.146
111.167
111.66
111.31
111.79
111.7
111.168
111.55
111.56
111.16
III.17
111.57
111.151
111.114
111.58
111.45
111.18
111.25
111.46
III.67
111.26
111.47
111.19
111.153
111.161
111.37
111.80
Alphabetic List of Applications
Applications
AGRICULTURE INFORMATION AND ADMINISTRATION SYSTEM
AIR POLLUTION PREDICTION
AUTOMATED AIRCRAFT DIAGNOSTICS
AUTOMATED AIRLINE PASSENGER SERVICES SYSTEM
AUTOMATED BAGGAGE CONTROL
AUTOMATED COURT SCHEDULING
AUTOMATED DESIGN ENGINEERING
111.102 AUTOMATED FINGERPRINT ANALYSIS
111.65 AUTOMATED FREIGHT TERMINALS
A UTOMATED LANDINGS AND TAKEOFFS
A UTOMATED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERING
AUTOMATED MANUFACTURING PLANT
AUTOMATED MASS TRANSIT SYSTEMS
AUTOMATED PERIODICAL PUBLISHING
AUTOMATED PLANT INFORMATION SYSTEMS
AUTOMATED PROCESS MANUFACTURING PLANT
111.113 AUTOMATED PUBLIC LIBRARIES
AUTOMATED ROADWAYS
AUTOMATED ROBOTS
AUTOMATED STOCK TRANSFER
AUTOMATED SUBSCRIPTION SERVICE
AUTOMATED TRAFFIC CONTROL
AU'l'OMATED VEHICLE DIAGNOSTIC CENTERS
111.139 AUTOMATED WAREHOUSES
AUTOMATED WEATHER FORECASTING
AUTOMATIC IRRIGATION CONTROL
AUTOMOBILE COLLISION AVOIDANCE SYSTEMS
BANK RESERVE REQUIREMENTS MODEL
BANKING SERVICE SYSTEM
CAREER PATH PLANNING
CASH FLOW SIMULATION
CHECKLESS SOCIETY
9LINICAL DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS
COMMERCIAL DATA PROCESSING SERVICES
COMMERCIAL LOAN CREDIT SCORING
COMPUTER ASSISTED INSTRUCTION EDUCATIONAL INSTITUTIONS
111.44 COMPUTER ASSISTED INSTRUCTION - ON THE JOB TRAINING
COMPUTER ASSISTED OCEANOGRAPHY
. ,CG-f!1PUTERASSISTED TESTING AND GUIDANCE CONSELING
COMPUTER CONTROL OF FREIGHT AND PASSENGER TRAINS
111.152 COMPUTER COORDINATED TESTING OF MEDICAL DRUGS
COMPUTER MANAGED INSTRUCTION
COMPUTER-ASSISTED LABOR I MANA GEMENT NEGOTIATIONS
COMPUTERIZED MEDICAL TEST ANALYSIS
COMPUTERIZED TYPING STATIONS
COMPUTERIZED WASTE DISPOSAL PLANTS
111.104 CONSOLIDATED PUBLIC WELFARE SYSTEMS
(:
C.l
APPENDIX
~..
Pagef?
111.59
111.140
111.81
111.115
111.48
·111.38
111.39
111.20
111.98
111.21
111.60
111.68
111.116
III.B2
111.83
111.105
111.49
111.95
111.84
111.14
111.117
[11.61
111.62
111.96
111.69
111.22
111.118
111.119
111.106
111.107
111.85
111.155
111.97
111.86
1"11.70
III.B7
III.lOB
111.171
111.90
111.88
111.89
111.162
111.156
III.121
111.130
111.91
Ill. 40_
111.154
111.94
III.148
III.129
111.120
Continued
Applications
CREDIT TRANSFER (GIRO) SYSTEM
CUSTOMER QUALITY ASSURANCE
DEFENSE AGAINST A 100 MISSILE SALVO ATTACK
DISEASE INFORMATION SYSTEMS
DYNAMIC SCHEDULING OF EDUCATIONAL FACILITIES
ECOLOGICAL BALANCE CALCULATIONS
ECOLOGICAL PLANT SCHEDULING
ECONOMETRIC MODELS OF THE ECONOMY
ELECTRONIC DELIVERY OF HARD COPY
ENTERPRISE SIMULATION
FINANCIAL UTILITY
FREIGHT RATE SERVICE
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES INFORMATION UTILITY
GOVERNMENT OPERATING LOTTERIES AND PARI-MUTUAL BETTING
GOVERNMENTAL PLANNING SYSTEMS FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
HEALTH INFORMATION SYSTEMS
HOME COMPUTER ASSISTED INSTRUCTION
HOME SHOPPING SERVICES
HUMAN RESOURCE SYSTEMS
IN-FLIGHT MONITORING AND DIAGNOSTICS OF AIRCRAFT
INFORMATION RETRIEVAL UTILITIES
INSURANCE SUPPORT SYSTEM
INTEGRATED FINANCIAL SERVICE SYSTEM
INTERACTIVE NEWS AND ENTERTAINMENT
INTERCONNECTED SHIPPERS AND CARRIER SYSTEMS
INVESTMENT MODELS
JOB PLACEMENT SERVICES
LAW SEARCH
LEGISLATIVE SYSTEMS
MANAGEMENT INFORMATION $YSTEMS
METROPOLITAN PLANNING MODELS
MULTI-PHASIC SCREENING
.MUL_TIPLE USE HOME TERMINAL
NATIONWIDE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL
NATIONWIDE COORDINATION OF INTERMOD~L FREIGHT SHIPMENTS'
NATioNWIDE DRIVER AND VEHICLE DATA BANK
NATIONWIDE POLICE INFORMATION SYSTEM
':NATIONWIDE POWER GRID
NATIONWIDE VOTER REGISTRATION
NAT10NAL HEALTH INSURANCE SYSTEMS
NATIONAL LAND INVENTORY
OJ/FICE ELECTRONIC MAIL SERVICE
OUT-PATIENT MONITORING
PATENT SEARCH
PENAL AND PAROLE INFORMATION SYSTEMS
PERSONAL DATA BANKS
POLLUTION MONITORING SYSTEMS
C.2
(
APPENDIX C
Pages
111.157
111.141
111.122
111.71
111.27 111.41
111.32
111.142
111.109
111.33
111.123 111.172
111.124
111.173
111.125
111.158
Continued
Applications
PREVENTIVE MEDICINE DIAGNOSTIC CENTERS
PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT SIMULATION SYSTEM
PROFESSIONAL LITERATURE SEARCH SYSTEMS
RAILROAD CAR TRACING, TRACKING AND ALLOCATION
RESEARCH MONITORING FOR ECOLOGICAL EFFECTS
RETAIL TERMINAL SYSTEMS
ROBOT-CONTROLLED AUTOMOBILE CHECKOUT
STATE HEALTH INFORMATION SYSTEMS
SUPERMARKET CHECKOUT SYSTEMS
TELEPHONE DIRECTORY AND YELLOW PAGE DATA BANKS
UNIVERSAL RESERVATION SYSTEMS
UTILITY USAGE RECORDING SYSTEM
VACATION AND TRAVEL PLANNING SYSTEMS
VERTICALLY INTEGRATED HEALTH CARE DELIVERY SYSTEM
(
C.3
APPENDIX D
Percent of
Respondents
(
(
33.3
32.8
32.1
29.8
28.3
27.5
25.7
26.5
?6•5
25.9
25.9
25.0
25.0
24.5
24.5
23.4
22.7
22.6
22.6
22.6
22.6
22.2
22.0
21 .6
21.4
21.3
20.8
20.8
20.0
20.0
20.0
20.0
20.0
20.0
20.0
19.6
19.3
19.2
18.9
18.8
18.4
18.4
18.0
18.0
17.9
17.9
17.6
17.6
17.6
17.4
17.4
17.3
Price/Performance Sensitive Applications
Application
HOME SHOPPING SERVICES
AUTOMATED PUBLIC LIBRARIES
OFFICE ELECTRONIC UAIL SERVICE
INTERACT IVE NEvIS AND ENTERTAINMENT
RETAIL TERMINAL SYSTEMS
NATIONWIDE DRIVER AND VEHicLE DATA BANK:
UNIVERSAL RESERVATION SYSTEMS
AUTOMATgD DgSIGN ENGINEERING
SUPERMARKET CllECKOUT SYSTEMS
llEALTH INFORMATION SYSTEMS
TELEPHONE DIRECTORY AND YELLOW PAGE DATA BANKS
!lOME COMPUTER ASSISTED INSTRUCTION
IllTERCONNECTED BHIPPERS AND CARRIER 8YBTR118
AUTOMATED MANUFACTURING PLANT
MANAGEMENT INFORMATION SYSTEMS
INSURANCE BUPPORT SYSTEM
ROBOT-CONTROLLED AUTOMOBILE. CHECKOUT
NATIONWIDE COORDINATION OF INTERMODAL FREIGHT SHIPMENTS'
STATE HEALTll INFORMATION SYBTEMS
MULTI-PHASIC BCREENING
COMPUTERIZED TYPiNG STATIONS
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES INFORMATION UTILITY
AUTOMATED MANUFACTURING ENGINEERING
PROFESSIONAL LITERATURE SEARCH SYSTENS
VACATION AND TRA VEL PLANNING SYSTEMS
ELECTRONIC DELIVERY OF llARD COPY
COMPUTER CONTROL OF FREIGHT AND PASSENGER TRAINS
LEGISLATIVE SYSTEMS
AUTOUOBILE COLLISION AVOIDANCE SYSTEMS
CONSOLIDATED PUBLIC WELFARE SYSTEUS
AUTOMATED ROBOTS
AUTOMATED ~/EATllER FORECASTING
NATIONWIDE POWER GRID'
BANKING SERVICE SYSTEM
INTEGRA'l'ED FINANCIAL SERVICE SYSTEM
COMPUTER ASSISTED INSTRUCTION - ON THE JOB TRAINIllG
LAT-I SEARCH
AUTOMATED LANDINGS AND TAKEOFFS
CLINICAL DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS
AUTOMATED PERIODICAL PUBLISHING .
MULTIPLE USE HOME TERMINAL
AUTOMATED TRAFFIC CONTROL
AUTOMA'.1'ED ~lAREHOUSES
AUTOMATED UASS TRANSIT SYSTEMS
COMPUTER ASSISTED INSTRUCTION EDUCATIONAL IlJSTITUTIONS
CREDIT TRANSFER (GIRO) SYSTEM
AUTOMATED FREIGllT TERMINALS
COMMERCIAL DATA PROCESSING SERVICES
AUTOMATED AIRCRAFT DIAGNOSTICS
RAILROAD CAR TRACING. TRACKING AND ALLOCATION
AUTOMATED FINGERPRINT ANALYSIS
FINANCIAL UTILITY
D.1
APPENDIX D
Continued
.Percent of
Respondents
,?
17.0
17.0
16.7
16.7
16.7
16.7
16.7
16.4
16.4
16.3
16.3
16.1
16.1
15.9
15.9
15.7
1 5. fi
15.5
15.3
15.2
15.1
14.6
14.6
l 1L3
14.0
14.0
14.0
13.7
13.3
12.5
12.5
12.2
11.8
11. 3
11.1
11.1
10.9
10.6
10.0
9.3
9.1
8.9
8.7
8.3
8.3
8.3
8.3
7.5
6.8
6.5
6.4
6.0
6.0
4.3
1.9
0.0
Application
AGRICULTURE INFORMATION AND ADMINISTRATION SYSTEM
AUTOMATED STOCK TRANSFER
AUTOMATED VEHICLE DIAGNOSTIC CENTERS
CHECKLESS SOCIETY
PENAL AND PAROLE INFORMATION SYSTEMS
AUTOMATED PROCESS MANUFACTURING PLANT
UTILITY USAGE RECORDING SYBTEM
JOB PLACEMENT SERVICES
IN-PLIGHT MONITORING AND DIAGNOSTICS OF AIRCRAFT
FREIGHT RATE SERVICE
AUTOMATED PLANT INPORMATION SYSTEMS
AUTOMATED ROADWAYS
PREVENTIVE MEDICINE DIAGNOSTIC CENTERS
CUSTOMgR QUALITY ASSURANCE
AIR POLLUTION PREDICTION
INPORMATION RETRIEVAL UTILITIES
METROPOLITAN PLANNING MODELS
NATIONWIDE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL
NATIONWIDi POtICE INFORMATION SYSTEM1
AUTOMATED AIRLINE PASSENGER SERVICES SYSTEM
COMPUTER ASSISTED TESTING AND GUIDANC~ qOUNSELING
AUTOMATED SUBSCRIPTION SERVICE
AUTOMATED BAnCAGE CONTROl,
PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT SIMULATION SYSTEM
COMPUTERIZED WASTE DISPOSAL PLANTS
AUTOMATED COURT SCHEDULING
AUTOMATIC IRRIGATION CONTROL
OUT-PATIENT MONITORING
PATENT SEARCH
DISBASE INFORMATION SYBTEMS
COMPUTER COORDINATED TESTING OF MEDICAL DRUGB
BANK RESERVE REQUIREMEN'l'S MODEL
ECONOMETRIC MODELS OF THE ECONOMY
. COMMERCIAL LOAN CREDIT SCORING
ECOLOGICAL PLANT SCHEDULING
VERTICALLY INTEGRATED HEALTH CARE DELIVERY SYSTEM
COMPUTER-ASSISTED LABOR/MANAGEMENT NEGOTIATIONS
. COMPUTER ASSISTED OCEANOGRAPHY
INVESTMENT MODELS
ECOLOGICAL BALANCE CALCULATIONS
ENTERPRISE SIMULATION
RESEARCH MONITORING FOR ECOLOGICAL EFFECT,')
NATIONAL LAND INVENTORY
DEFENSE AGAINST A 100 MISSILE SALVO ATTACK
COMPUTERIZED MEDICAL TEST ANALYSIS
CASH ~LOW SIMULATION
POLLUTION MONITORING SYSTEMS
DYNAMIC SCHEDULING OF EDUCATIONAL FACILITIES
HUMAN RESOURCE SYSTEMS
GOVERNMENT OPERATING LOTTERIES AND PARI-MUTUAL BETTING
NATIONAL HEALTH INSURANCE SYSTEMS
COMPUTER MANAGED INSTRUCTION
PERSONAL DATA BANKS
NATIONWID.E VOTER REGISTRATIONN
CAREER PATH PLANNING
GOVERNMENTAL PLANNING SYSTEMS FOR DEVELOPIllG COUNTRIES
0.2
./
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