Microsoft Frost_Nelson_Br_Temp_x Frost Pilot Assessment Of Stream Temp

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4/13/2017

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Pilot Assessment of Stream Temperature

for an Impaired Waterway

Bill Frost, PE, D.WRE, Sr Water Resources Engineer, KCI Technologies, Inc.

Andy Becker, Project Scientist, KCI Technologies, Inc.

National Stormwater and Watershed Conference

Linthicum, MD

April 4, 2017

Pictrometry Bird’sEye©Pictrometry InternationalCorp

Nelson Branch Data Loggers

Temperature Records Temperature Data from Nelson Branch

Logger

Number*

Maximum

Recorded

Water

Temperature Date of

Maximum

1 21.3 9/9/2016

2 23.1 7/20/2016

4 22.5 6/16/2016

5 22.6 7/20/2016

7 22.9 8/19/2016

8 24.9 7/20/2016

Logger

Number*

%

Exceeding

20C %

Forest %

Agriculture %

Urban %

Impervious

Drainage

Area

(acres)

18% 22.6% 65.9% 11.5% 3.4% 155.2

233% 27.2% 48.6% 24.2% 6.3% 152.4

415% 46.5% 45.9% 7.7% 3.1% 59.2

521% 28.9% 57.1% 14.0% 4.2% 762.6

714% 17.6% 73.7% 8.8% 1.4% 41.2

850% 28.6% 60.6% 10.9% 3.3% 1,109.5

•Loggers 3 and 6 were air temperature loggers and are not displayed in this table

•WQ criteria allow up to 10% exceedance

24to27istheupperlethaltemperatureforBrookTrout

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Temperature – Causes?

Land Cover

Type Slope p-value R2

Forest 0.026 0.938 0.002

Urban 0.130 0.514 0.113

Impervious 0.035 0.504 0.119

No apparent correlation

between temperature

exceedance and watershed

land use

•Forest

•Urban

•Impervious

Other possible causes

•Lack of stream shading

•Low summer instream

flows

•Increased width to depth

ratio of streams

•Warm water from ponds

•Heated run off during rain

events

Relatewatershedcharacteristicsto

streamtemperatureforbothNelson

Branchandinthefutureforother

Countywatersheds–

•Determineandquantifycausesof

increasedtemperature

•Forecasttemperaturereduction

basedonpotentialimprovements

Modeling Goals

Statistical/Stochastic

•Correlationorregressionanalysis

ormodelingofrandomvariables

•Usuallyuniquetotheregion

wheretheyweredeveloped

•Mayrequirealongtimeseriesof

measurementsinorderto

describeawiderangeof

conditions

Types of Models Types of Models

Deterministic

•Physically‐basedwithan

energybudgetapproach

•Heattransferandfluidflow

equations

•Generallycapableof

simulatingconditionsthat

maynotbepresentinthe

existingwatershed

•Morecomplexandrequire

moreinputdata

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Deterministic

•Physically‐basedwithan

energybudgetapproach

•Heattransferandfluidflow

equations

•Generallycapableof

simulatingconditionsthat

maynotbepresentinthe

existingwatershed

•Morecomplexandrequire

moreinputdata

Types of Models

Capabilitytoassessof

sourcesofimpairments

Typesofmanagement

measurestobemodeled

Availabilityofinputdata

Resources,complexity,

andexpertiserequired

Modelsupport

Selection Criteria

SourceofImpairment PossibleRemediation

Lackofstreamshading

Restorenativeriparianvegetation;

increasecanopycoverandforestheightto

castlongeranddensershadows.

Protectriparianareafromunnatural

disturbances;removenon‐native

vegetation

Controllivestockaccesstothestreamvia

fencingandrestoringnativeriparian

vegetation

Lowsummerinstreamflows

Restoreheadwaterwatershedfeatures

thatretainmoistureandallowincreased

infiltration;e.g.wetlands,wideriparian

buffers.

Implementstormwaterandagricultural

BMPstopromoteinfiltrationofrunoff.

Increasedwidthtodepthratioofstreams

Stabilizestreammorphologytoreduce

incisionandwidening.

Implementstreamrestorationprojectsto

createdeeper,widerbaseflow channels

andconnectstreamswithfloodplains.

Warmwaterfromponds

Convertpondsintowetlands

Removeinlinepondconnection

Wherefeasibleretrofitpondwithbottom

releasestructuretoallowforcooler

bottomwatertoreachthestream

Heatedrunoffduringrainevents

ImplementstormwaterBMPssuchas

infiltration,bioretention,swales,andrain

gardenstopromoteinfiltration.

Disconnectrunoffbyredirectingitaway

fromimperviousareastoturforforested

landcover.

Capabilitytoassessof

sourcesofimpairments

Typesofmanagement

measurestobemodeled

Availabilityofinputdata

Resources,complexity,

andexpertiserequired

Modelsupport

Selection Criteria

Inputdataelement

Nelson

Branch

data

loggers

County

GIS

layers

LGF

WQMP

SHA

RWIS

data

County

rain

gages

NOAA

climate

data

Meteorology

Airtemperature x x

Cloudcover x

Windspeedx

Humidity x

Precipitation x

Hydrology

Flowvolume x

Ponds/reservoirs x

Watertemperature x

Channel

Morphology

Reachlength x x

Width/depth x

Slope x x

Gradient/sinuosity x

Substrate x

Elevation x

Topography

Streamaspect x

Latitude x

Elevation x

Shading Riparianvegetation x x

Watershed Imperviouscover x

Forestcover x

Model Sponsor

Hydrodynamics

/TimeStep Description InfoSource

CEQUAL‐RIV1 USACE Continuous,Sub‐

Daily

Hydrodynamicandwaterqualitymodelfornutrients,sediment,metals,

bacteria,effectsofalgaeandmacrophytesinadditiontotemperature.

Deasand

Lowney(2000)

HSPF USGS Continuous,Sub‐

Daily

Hydrologicandwaterqualitymodel;simulateswatershedprocesseson

perviousandimpervioussurfaces.Alongwithtemperature,output

includeswaterbudget,andpollutantloading.Reachandreservoir

nutrientcycleandbiologicaltransformationsarealsomodeled.

Deasand

Lowney(2000)

QUAL2E USEPA Sub‐Daily ReceivingwaterqualitymodelintendedforTMDLdevelopment.

Hydrologic,temperature,andpollutantmassbalanceiscalculatedfor

eachsubreach.

Deasand

Lowney(2000)

SNTEMP USGS Steadystate,

Dailytomonthly

Heattransportmodelthatpredictsdailymeanandmaximum

temperaturebasedonstreamdistanceandheatfluxfromradiation,

convection,conduction,shading,andgroundwaterinflow.

Deasand

Lowney(2000)

SSTEMP USGS/

FWS

Steadystate,

Dailytomonthly

ScaleddownversionofSNTEMPwhichhandlessinglestreamreachesfor

asingletimeperiodperrun.Predictsmeanandmaximumtemperatures

basedonheatfluxprocesses:convection,conduction,evaporation,air

temperature,solarradiation,andshading.

UserManual

HEATSOURCE Oregon

DEQ

Continuous,Sub‐

Daily

Themodelsimulatesdynamicopenchannelhydraulics,flowrouting,heat

transfer,effectiveshadeandstreamtemperature.Processesincludemass

transfers,groundwaterinflows,landscaperadiation,adiabaticcooling,

radiationmodeling,evaporation,hydrodynamicroutingwithhyporheic

exchangewithinthesubstrate.

UserManual

Deterministic Models

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Model Description Selection

CEQUAL‐RIV1 Developedprimarilyforwater

qualitymodeling.Tem p era t ure 

modelingisanelementof

waterquality.

•Moredataintensive.

•Pollutantloadinginput

required.

•Morecomplex.

HSPF

QUAL2E

HEATSOURCE

Developedsolelyformodeling

streamtemperature.

•Dataintensive

•Required GISanalysisof

remotesensingdata

•Couldbeconsideredfora

futuremodeling

SNTEMP •Streamnetwork

temperaturemodel

•Couldbeconsideredfor

futuremodelingwitha

hydrologic flowmodel

SSTEMP •Singlereachmodel

•Lesscomplex version of

SNTEMP

•Inputdatawereavailable

Deterministic Models

•Capabilitytoassessof

sourcesofimpairments

•Typesofmanagement

measurestobemodeled

•Availabilityofinputdata

•Resources,complexity,and

expertiserequired

•Modelsupport

Onemodelidentifiedthrough

literaturesearch:

•ThermalUrbanRunoffModel

(TURM)

•DaneCounty,WI

•BasedonExcelspreadsheet

•Site‐levelmodelratherthana

watershedmodel

Predictstemperaturechangesin

runofffromnewdevelopmentthat

addsimperviouscover

Runoff Modeling

Sensitivity

•Whichvariableswouldhavethe

greatesteffectontemperature

Calibration

•Varyinginputdatasomodelresults

matchfieldmeasurements

•Resultsforfourreaches

ChangedTotalShadeinput

Threeoffourcouldbe

calibrated

SSTEMP – Sensitivity and Calibration

Description CalibrationChange

Mainstem betweenLoggers1and5Shadefrom65.5to77

Mainstem betweenLoggers5and8Shadefrom50.7to45

TributarytoLogger4Shadefrom67.6to100

TributarytoLogger2Shadefrom65to87

InstreamImprovements

•Takingpondsoffline

Trialsweremadevaryingtheassumptionthatupstream

pondswerepresent.Therewasnoeffectonthemean

temperature.

•Streamrestoration

Trialsweremadevaryingthewidthparameters.Mean

temperaturesvariedbylessthanonepercent,indicating

thatthisisnotasignificantfactorinthiswatershed,or

thatSSTEMP’salgorithmsdonotmodelvariationsin

streamwidthoroverwidening well.

•Addingriparianbuffer/shade

Increasingbuffershadinghadapositiveeffecton

temperature.

SSTEMP – Instream Results

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Modeling

•Possiblesunwasincreasedto

100%toshowtheworstcase

scenarioforunshadedstreams.

•Percentofshadewasincreased

withthegoalofmeetinga

meantemperatureof20oC

Cost

•KingandHagan(2011)

estimated$33,000/ac,or

approximately$150pertreeif

plantedat200treesperacre.

SSTEMP – Riparian Buffer Results

Reach Measured

100%

Sun Shaded

Changein

Shading Ac. Cost

Mainstem

between

Loggers1and5

19.98 20.26 19.98 77%to81% 1.1 $36,300

Mainstem

between

Loggers5and8

21.80 22.41 19.97 45%to80% 8.3 $273,900

Tributaryto

Logger221.02 21.26 20.06 87%to

100% 1.7 $56,100

Modeling

•TURMwasrunforonesubwatershed ofNelsonBranch.

•HeadwatersofthestreamdrainingtoLogger#2‐ theonlyareawithconcentratedimpervious

coveratSt.JamesAcademy

TURM – Procedure

Procedure

•RunTURMtofindthe

temperaturefromthe

urbanizedsite.

•RunTR‐55tofindthevolume

offlowforthesiteandthe

remainderofthewatershed,

thencalculateaweighted

averageforrunoff

temperature.

•Calculateaweightedaccretion

temperatureforthestream.

•Calculatechangeinstream

temperatureusingSSTEMP.

Site

•22.0oC Rainfall

•46.4oC Runofffromconnectedimperviousarea

•36.2oC Runofffromsite

Subwatershed

•22.0oC Undisturbedwatershed(assumedsameas

rainfall)

•36.2oC Runofffromsite

•24.8 oC Subwatershed weightedbyflowvolume

Stream

•21.0 oC Withoutsiterunoff

•24.8 oCWithsiterunoff

TURM – Results

Temperat u reincrease:

Approximately10%

Bothmodelswererelativelyeasytouseanddidnothaveextensivedata

requirements.

•Useofthetwomodelswasfeasibleforrunoffheatingbutlimitedbythelack

ofagoodlinkagebetweenthewatershedandstream.

TURMdidnotprovideamoduletotestimprovementsfromurbanBMPs

suchasinfiltration,imperviousdisconnection,grasschannels,orlevel

spreaders.

SSTEMPdidnotmodelchangeswellfromstreamwideningorshallow

waterdepth.

Neithermodelcouldsuccessfullyestimatetemperaturechangesfrom

heatedwaterinponds.

Model Summary

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ForfutureanalysesusingSSTEMP:

•Weatherdata

Instreamandairtemperature

Dewpointtemperatureorrelative

humidity

Cloudcover,atleastdaily

•Streamdata

Frequentflowmeasurementsatevery

datalogger

Averagereachwidthanddepth

Additionaltemperaturereadingsat

upstreamponddischarges

•DetailedRiparianVegetationData

Height

Crown

Offset

Density

Future Work

Testothermodels:

•Statistical/Stochastic

Maryland‐basedempiricalmodel

includingseasonaland

urbanizationeffects(Nelsonand

Palmer,2007)

•Deterministic

SNTEMPstreamnetworkwith

watershedhydrologicmodel

(Krauseetal,2004)

HEATSOURCEwithorwithout

ThermalInfraredImagery

Pictrometry Bird’sEye©Pictrometry InternationalCorp

Questions and Comments