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The contribution of National Recovery and Resilience Plans to achieving Europe’s Digital Decade ambition Deloitte LLP Report - 21 June 2021
The contribution of National Recovery and Resilience Plans to achieving Europe's Digital Decade ambition
Deloitte LLP Report - 21 June 2021
EPuroroppoesa'sl DtiitgleitagloDesechaedre a|nSdectthioenRtRitFleGgaopesAhnearleysis | Important Notice
Important notice
This Final Report (the "Final Report") has been prepared by Deloitte LLP ("Deloitte") for Vodafone Group Plc in accordance with the contract signed on 4 June 2021 ("the Contract") and on the basis of the scope and limitations set out below.
The Final Report has been prepared solely for the purposes of enabling European policy makers to understand the potential current gaps between the RRF funded proposals in the National Recovery and Resilience Plans and the Digital Decade targets, as set out in the Contract. It should not be used for any other purpose or in any other context, and Deloitte accepts no responsibility for its use in either regard. The Final Report is provided exclusively for Vodafone Group Plc 's use under the terms of the Contract. No party other than Vodafone Group Plc is entitled to rely on the Final Report for any purpose whatsoever and Deloitte accepts no responsibility or liability or duty of care to any party other than Vodafone Group Plc in respect of the Final Report or any of its contents.
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projections and their implications, we accept no responsibility for their accuracy or completeness.
As set out in the Contract, the scope of our work has been limited by the time, information and explanations made available to us. The information contained in the Final Report has been obtained from Vodafone Group Plc and third party sources that are clearly referenced in the appropriate sections of the Final Report. Deloitte has neither sought to corroborate this information nor to review its overall reasonableness. Further, any results from the analysis contained in the Final Report are reliant on the information available at the time of writing the Final Report and should not be relied upon in subsequent periods.
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Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Contents
Contents
Executive summary
4
Context and objectives of the study
11
The approach
17
Overview of Member States
21
Member State Deepdives
35
Czechia
38
France
43
Germany
48
Greece
53
Hungary
58
Italy
63
Poland
68
Portugal
73
Romania
78
Spain
83
Conclusion and next steps
88
NRRPs reviewed and sources
90
Glossary and references
92
3
Executive summary
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Executive Summary
Objectives and approach
The aim of this study is to provide a high-level analysis on the potential contribution of National Recovery and Resilience Plans towards the Digital Decade targets, covering 20 Member States
Objective of the study
· The European Commission (the `Commission') will be conducting detailed assessments of EU member state National Recovery and Resilience Plans (`NRRPs' or `plans').
· This study provides a high-level qualitative financial analysis of how: the NRRPs of 20 Member States collectively have been linked towards achieving the Digital Decade targetsa; and a selection these Member States (10), as well as the EU27 as a whole, are progressing towards these targets and the potential gap to achieve these targets.
· This study does not seek to replicate the Commission's assessment or express views on the adequacy or otherwise of particular plans.
· The study by and large did not take into account other non-RRF related national plans that may contribute to digitalisation and the targets.
Approach
National Recovery and Resilience Plans
Austria Belgium Croatia Cyprus
Review of the NRRPs for the following 20 EU Member States:
Czechia Denmark France Germany
Greece Hungary Italy Latvia
Lithuania Luxembourg Poland Portugal
Romania Slovakia Slovenia Spain
DESI Indicators and Digital Decade targets
Assess progress of DESI indicators for selected Member States and EU27 against Digital Decade targets.
Linking NRRP to Digital Decade targets
Identify where targets (or related terms) are explicitly mentioned in plans and attribute
the funding to that target.a
a) In cases where funding appears to be linked to multiple targets, and where a breakdown has not been identified, the funding is only included once in the total funding amount linked to Digital Decade targets. However, in attributing this funding to specific targets areas, it is assumed that all the funding could be used to achieve the individual target. Therefore, funding linked to individual pillars or areas may represent an upper bound and may not sum to the same amount as the aggregate figures presented in this report.
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Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Executive Summary
Overview of the plans of the 20 selected Member States
With substantial progress required in order to meet the 2030 Digital Decade targets, the analysis highlights varying degrees of emphasis placed on each of the four pillars (Infrastructure, Skills, Businesses and Public services)
EU 27 progress towards the Digital Decade targets:
Infrastructure
Skills
Businesses
Gigabit connectivity
5G coverage
Adults with basic digital skills
ICT specialists
Cloud users
SME basic digital intensity
EU27 Average (2020):
44%1
EU Target (2030):
100%
EU27 Average (2020):
14%2
EU Target (2030):
100%
EU27 Average (2020):
58%3
EU Target (2030):
80%
EU27 Average (2020):
8.5m4
EU Target (2030):
20m
EU27 Average (2020):
18%5
EU Target (2030):
75%
EU27 Average (2019):
60%6
EU Target (2030):
90%
Public services
Online services
EU27 Average (2020):
90%7
EU Target (2030):
100%
e-medical records
EU Target (2030):
100%
e-IDs
EU Target (2030):
80%
Digital Decade target coverage within NRRPs off the 20 Member State plans analysed: EU governments have recognised the importance of the Digital Decade targets and set out strategies to achieve those in their NRRPs. However, the level of funding linked to each area and the specificity of the National Recovery and Resilience Plans varies across countries and targets. The following summarises the number of the Member States NRRPs (of the 20 that were analysed in this study) that have mentioned Digital Decade targets in each of the four areas:
Secure and performant sustainable digital infrastructure
Gigabit connectivity appears in 17 out of 20 NRRPs, with funding linked to the target in 16 of these plans. 5G is mentioned in 16 out of 20 NRRPs with funding linked to the coverage target in 13 of these plans.
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A digitally skilled population and highly skilled digital professionals
All 20 Member States provided detailed plans and investments to digitalise the education system, and vocational programmes to increase the digital skill level of adults.
9 out of 20 Member States linked specific funding towards the promotion of ICT specialists.
Digitalisation of businesses
All NRRPs set out initiatives to support businesses, and funding for the digital transformation of SMEs has been linked in 19 out of 20 NRRPs. Cloud computing strategies are mentioned in 12 out of the 20 NRRPs, with funding committed in 10 of these plans.
Digitalisation of public services
All of the 20 Member States have set out detailed objectives to provide key public services online in their NRRPs. In addition, 19 out of 20 Member States have linked funding to e-health, of which 13 have explicitly linked funding to e-medical records.
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Executive Summary
Contribution of the NRRPs to the targets (1/3)
Across 20 Member States, 27% of the total NRRP budgets is earmarked to support digital transformation and the majority of this amount can be reconciled to specific Digital Decade target areas
· The total budget of the 20 Member States' NRRPs amounts to 577bn, of which 485bn is funded by the RRF, accounting for c.72% of the total RRF budget.
· Of the total budget, around 154bn (27% of the total) is to support the digital transformation of the economy and society.
· The analysis in this report has identified up to 131bn which has been clearly linked to the four key areas of the Digital Decade targets, accounting for c.85% of the total digital investmenta,b.
a) This does not include investment in technologies to support the green transition. b) Based on Deloitte Analysis of the 20 NRRPs. In cases where funding appears to be linked to multiple pillars or multiple targets, the funding is only included once in the aggregate Digital Decade figure of 131bn. However, in attributing this funding to specific pillars or target areas, it is assumed that all the funding could be used to achieve the individual target. Therefore, funding linked to individual pillars or areas may sum to a higher amount than the total presented.
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Total RRF budget (EU27)
672.5bn8
NRRPs Budget (20 Member States)
577bn
485bn of which
is funded from RRF
Total NRRP Budgets of 20 Member States
Other
154bn
Digital
131bn
Digital Decade
Poland 36bn Greece 60bn Spain 70bn France 100bn Italy 192bn
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Executive Summary
Contribution of the NRRPs to the targets (2/3)
The majority of Member States analysed have linked between 20% and 25% of their total NRRP budget to Digital, which is a common trend across Member States with different current levels of digitalisation
· Member States are required to include a minimum of 20% of expenditure to foster the digital transition.
· The largest contributions to Digital, in absolute terms, are made by countries who have exceeded this minimum threshold.
· However, the majority of countries appear to have positioned Digital expenditure exactly at the minimum 20% threshold, or very close to this.
· For countries with a relatively low current level of digitalisation as captured by the DESI 2020 score in particular, it appears uncertain whether the level of investment will be sufficient to close the gap and achieve 2030 Digital Decade targets.
· Equally, it must be recognised that countries with the largest gap to Digital Decade targets may face competing priorities, with other urgent needs in the non-Digital space.
· The contribution of NRRPs to Digital Decade targets does also vary across the four pillars, as set out on the following pages.
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Total Digital funding within NRRPs of the 20 Member States
55%
50%
DE, 14.0bn
Total Digital funding as % of Total Budget
45% 40%
AT, 1.8bn
35%
LU, 0.0bn
30% 25% 20% 15%
IT, 51.7bn
EL, 15.0bn
CY, 0.3bn
RO, 5.9bn
PL, 7.7bn
CZ, 1.8bn HU, 1.6bn
FR, 25.0bn SI, 0.5bn
ES, 20.6bn BE, 1.2bn
SK, 1.3bn HR, 1.3bn PT, 3.3bn
LV, 0.4bn LT, 0.4bn
10%
35
40
45
50
55
60
DESI 2020 score
DK, 0.1bn
65
70
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Executive Summary
Contribution of the 20 Member State NRRPs to the targets (3/3)
The estimated funding linked to targets in the NRRPs for the 20 Member States could make a material positive contribution to achieving the targets across the four areas; however, based on comparison of funding proposals to investment and spending benchmarks, they may fall still short of addressing funding needed to reach the targets a,b
Whilst the linked funding referenced here reflects just the NRRPs of the 20 Member States, and therefore not the whole contribution of the EU27 to the targets, the 20 NRRPs analysed collectively account for around 72% of the total funding committed (in total, not specifically linked to targets)
a) Additional funding commitments outside of NRRPs specific allocation to Digital Decade targets are not included apart from funding from the National Broadband Plans; b) The total funding in each category represents an upper bound and the four categories may not add up to the 131bn shown on the previous page, due to double counting of certain packages between categories when a breakdown was not available. c) Funding committed in the National Broadband Plans include funding from `ERDF' and `CEF2 Digital' for some of the countries included in the analysis; d) Based on estimated from a US study to reskill workers that are projected to be displaced by technology. This may overestimate the cost per worker to gain basic digital skills; e) This does not include additional funding commitments to support SMEs not specifically related to digitalisation; f) Eurostat data available on ICT equipment and Computer software / databases for public services has been extrapolated to the EU27 level.
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Public services
Businesses
Skills
Infrastructure
18bn
Funding linked to 5G and gigabit networks across the 20 NRRPs. Additional funding of 78bnc provided by the 20 National Broadband Plans (NBPs). The EIB estimated an EU27 investment gap of 210bn (excluding expected private sector investment) until 2025.
47bn
Funding linked to digital skills across the 20 NRRPs equivalent to 7% of the yearly EU public education budgets for digital skills and digital transformation of education. The World Economic Forum estimates that reskilling a worker costs around 20,300.d
40bn
Funding linked to support SMEs digitalisation and greater cloud usage across the 20 NRRPse The EIB estimates that European SMEs spend 57bn-65bn on digitalisation annually.
c.46%
The total funding of the 20 NRRPs and NBPs account for around 96bn, which amounts to 46% of the 210bn total EU27 investment gap (excluding expected private sector investment) until 2025.
c.4%
Proportion of adults needing reskilling in the EU27 that could be addressed, equivalent to roughly 2.3m EU workers.
c.10%
Funding of the 20 NRRPs equates to around 7bn annually on average until 2026, which amounts to around 10% of current SME digitalisation spend across the EU27.
30bn
Funding linked to public services, of which funding related to online service availability is around 19bn across the 20 NRRPs and additional funding of around 11bn is linked to e-medical records and e-IDs.
c.6%
Funding of the 20 NRRPs for online services alone equates to around 3bn annually on average until 2026, which amounts to 6% of total EU27 ICT spend for public services.f
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Executive Summary
Key takeaways
Member states are committing significant investment to the digital transformation of their economies; however, further private and public investment may be needed in certain areas to achieve targets in particular Infrastructure, Digital Skills and digitalisation of businesses
Source: Based on Deloitte Analysis of the 20 NRRPs 10
Funding linked to Digital Decade targets
Areas where further investment may be needed
· The Digital Decade targets are ambitious and will require high levels of improvement in each of the targeted areas over the coming years. If the current trajectory of progress towards the Digital Decade targets continues, by 2030 the EU may not achieve many of the targets that have been set.
· The 20 Member states have committed significant investment of 154bn towards digital transformation (27% of the total) across the NRRPs. Of this amount, up to 131bn appears to be directly linked to achieving the Digital Decade targets.
· The gap between current levels and target levels of digitalisation varies greatly across Member States. Each country will face different challenges depending on several factors including the structure of the economy, the population density and demography and the geography of the territory. The majority of NRRPs include Digital funds that amount to 25% or less of the total and it is uncertain whether this will be sufficient for those countries facing the greatest challenges.
· Based on high-level analysis of the NRRPs, taking into account current trends and challenges, the potential for a gap between the targets and the levels achieved with proposed investments appears greatest in Infrastructure, Skills (in particular the number of ICT specialists) and Businesses (in particular digitalisation of SMEs) areas. However there is wide variation between Member States and each will face different challenges in seeking to reach the Digital Decade targets.
· Digital infrastructure and connectivity has been recognised as important across the 20 Member States' plans. However, the collective investment across NRRPs and NBPs amounts to 46% of the investment gap (excluding estimated private sector investment) that has been estimated by the EIB for digital connectivity (this share refers to investment of 20 Member states analysed in this report, and does not account for any investment by the remaining seven Member States).
· Further, while the NRRPs across the 20 Member States all provide funding to support SMEs digitalisation, the aggregate investment amounts to around 10% of current SME digitalisation spend in total across the EU27. Spain and Italy alone account for around two thirds of the 40bn amount linked to Business area Digital Decade targets.
· The 20 Member States have committed to investment in education, of which up to 47bn is linked to digital skills. However, 9 out of 20 Member States appear to have linked funding to specifically increasing the number of ICT specialists (one of the key targets), which accounts for around a tenth of the total investment in digital skills.
Context and objectives of the study
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Context and objectives of the study
The context (1/4)
The European Commission's Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) is an ambitious plan to accelerate the twin digital and green transformation of European economies and societies
The recovery from the coronavirus pandemic presents an opportunity to build back better, delivering greater resilience, inclusivity and sustainability for EU Member States and their citizens. For this reason the RRF, part of the NextGenerationEU plan, has been established.
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RRF at a glance
Member State NRRPs
Objective To invest, create jobs and build a green and digital future for all.
Funding 672.5bn in grants and loans.9
Key priorities:
Connect Rollout of rapid broadband services Scale-up Data cloud capacities and sustainable processors Recharge and refuel Sustainable transport and charging stations Power up Clean technologies and renewables Renovate Energy efficiency of buildings Modernise Digitalisation of public administration Reskill and upskill Education and training to support digital skills
To benefit from the support of the RRF, Member States have submitted NRRPs to the European Commission detailing their proposals for investments and reforms.
· Proposals must earmark at least 20% of investments for digital projects, and 37% for green projects10
· Reforms and investments should be implemented by 2026
23 Member States have published NRRPs as at 11 June 2021, with 4 Member States still to publish their plans.
The RRF is an opportunity to kickstart the investments needed to achieve the ambitious twin digital and green transitions.
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Context and objectives of the study
The context (2/4)
The Commission provides guidance on the RRF for Member States on how to allocate at least 20% of the funding for digital projects
The RRF requires Member States to allocate at least 20% of the funding that they will receive until 2026 to digital projects.11 The EC has published guidance on the RFF for Member States12, where it sets out the following seven categories of investments for Member States to consider when deciding on investment for digital programs.
13
Connectivity: Measures to bridge the digital divide including between rural and urban areas.
E-government: Modernizing public administration using key digital enablers, e-IDs, mobility of citizens, businesses, goods and services.
Digital-related investment in R&D: ICT R&D, including artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, block chain, quantum computing.
Human capital: Developing digital capacities to support resilient and efficient education, enhancing digital skills and competences.
Greening the digital sector: Policies to reduce waste and energy consumption and usage of renewable energy for digitalisation.
Digital investments
Investment in digital capacities and development of advanced technology: Data spaces, edge computing, high performance computing, cybersecurity.
Digitalisation of businesses: Speeding up decision making an execution with automation based on digital technologies.
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Context and objectives of the study
The context (3/4)
The Digital Decade targets align with the Commission's digital investment categories and provide a roadmap for Member States to deliver digital transformation through their National Recovery and Resilience Plans
The Commission has set an ambition for a digital transformation by 2030 to empower people and businesses and establish a long-term digital trajectory for the bloc. To deliver this ambition, the Commission has designed the Digital Compass which sets out the Digital Decade targets across the following four key areas for transformation to be achieved across the EU by 2030.13
The digital investment categories set out by the Commission's RRF guidance on connectivity, human capital, digitalisation of businesses and e-government broadly align with the four areas of the Digital Decade targets. In addition, other categories such as digital-related investment in R&D can act as a catalyst to enable any of the Digital Decade targets. For this reason, the targets provide a clear roadmap to structure the digital investment and reforms set out in Member States' National Recovery and Resilience Plans.
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Infrastructure
Infrastructure is a key prerequisite in enabling citizens and businesses to benefit from the digital transformation. These targets include achieving 100% coverage of fixed gigabit and 5G networks by 2030. This will require overcoming the challenges in closing the rural divide in connectivity and will enable the greater use of advanced computing technologies.
Public services
The aim of digitising public services is to provide more efficient, inclusive and easy to use systems, enabling cross border access to key services. The digitalisation of public services opens the door to the use of advanced computing for smart cities and e-Health. By 2030, 100% of public services (e.g. registering a business, family related support etc.) are targeted to be online with 100% availability of e-medical records and 80% of the population using e-IDs.
Skills
Digital skills are essential in enabling and empowering all individuals to benefit from the digital transformation, increasing trust, inclusivity and equality in accessing services and jobs. The targets envisage 80% of adults having basic digital skills and the number of EU ICT specialists reaching 20m.
Businesses
Supporting businesses to adopt new technologies by reducing barriers (e.g. skills, costs) will be critical in ensuring that EU companies remain globally competitive. This includes a target for 75% of enterprises to be using cloud, big data and AI by 2030. Support for SMEs is crucial as they make up 99% of all businesses in the EU.14 The target is for 90% of SMEs to reach at least a basic level of `digital intensity' by 2030 (e.g. having access to fast broadband (30 Mbps or above) and ICT specialists).
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Context and objectives of the study
The context (4/4)
Advancing the rate of digitalisation in these four areas can generate a wide range of economic and social benefits
Infrastructure
The widespread deployment of very high capacity networks (fixed and mobile) has the potential to deliver significant economic and social value, and support the post-pandemic recovery. These networks will deliver faster, more reliable and flexible networks that have the potential to transform key sectors across the economy (including healthcare, transport, manufacturing and public services), enable greater innovation and support digital inclusion and transformation.
Skills
Basic digital skills are required in all types of jobs in the EU, including industries that were traditionally not related to digitalisation such as farming, health care or construction. For example, 98% of workplaces require managers or technicians to have at least basic digital skills. Digital skills have the potential to increase people's income as well as employment prospects as they are able to access a wider range of skilled jobs that require digital skills.
Businesses
The digitalisation of processes could enable SMEs to reduce costs and to increase productivity through greater efficiency. SMEs with high digital intensity may be more likely to reach out to new customers by providing products and services online. It can further help foster innovation, leading to higher overall growth of the economy as SMEs represent 99.8% of all non-financial businesses in the EU and employ c.67% of the EU workforce.
Public services
The provision of e-government services has the potential to reduce frictions for citizens and businesses while interacting and transacting with government, which can lead to a significant reduction in time and costs. For example, EU's Once-Only project aims to reduce administrative burdens and facilitates cross-border businesses.
1 trillion GDP 5G could add up to 1 trillion to European GDP (2021-2025).
2 trillion output 5G could drive up to 2 trillion in incremental gross output across Europe (2021-2025).a
20 million jobs 5G has the potential to create or transform up to 20 million jobs across all sectors of the economy.
480 million GDP A study found that training and/ or attracting an additional 1,000 ICT specialists in Greece was associated with an increase of 480m in GDP.
664 million earning benefits Learning basic digital skills can increase the income of individuals. It is estimated that the total learning benefits to the UK economy could reach around 664m by 2028.
8.9% increase in productivity Data-driven solution such as cloudbased computer power could increase SME productivity by 8.9%.
11 billion savings The EU's Once-Only project is expected to save businesses 11 billion annually.
855,000 hours saved The EU's Once-Only projects could further save businesses and citizens 855,000 hours.
Sources: Accenture, The Impact of 5G on the European Economy, 2021; Eurostat, Small and Medium-sized businesses; European Commission, Shaping Europe's digital future; Vodafone, Foundation for economic and industrial research, Measuring the economic impact of digital skills in Greece; Cebr, The economic impact of Digital Inclusion in the UK, Deloitte Insights, Government Trends 2020 a) Gross output (GO) measures the total value of all goods and services made within a specific timeframe whereas Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the value of all finished goods and services made within a specific timeframe.
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Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Context and objectives of the study
Objectives
The aim of this study is to provide a high-level analysis on the potential contribution towards the Digital Decade targets based on linked funding from National Recovery and Resilience Plans
This study
This study aims to contribute to this dialogue, providing a high-level qualitative analysis of how 20 Member States' National Recovery and Resilience Plans may spur development towards the Digital
Decade targets.
To this end we have undertaken an analysis assessing the progress that is required to achieve the Digital Decade targets and whether the National Recovery and Resilience Plans look
to address these.
This report presents the findings of our analysis at an aggregate level, as well as more detailed analysis for a subset of ten selected member states.
NRRPs
The Commission will be conducting detailed assessments of the individual plans with the view to confirming the plans or suggesting changes ahead of the European Council's review. This study
does not seek to replicate these assessments nor express views on
the adequacy or otherwise of particular plans.
16
The approach
Outline of framework and methodology
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | The Approach
Overview of approach
The qualitative analysis assesses Member States' NRRPs against the Digital Compass targets, supported by high-level analysis of the indicators from the Digital Economy and Society Index (DESI) to track progress
Our approach synthesises qualitative pieces of information supported by quantitative analysis where possible, by identifying the current gaps using DESI indicators15, and identifying where relevant funding and proposals have been made to achieve the target.
Member States included in the aggregate-level analysis:
Austria Belgium Croatia Cyprus Czechia
Denmark France Germany Greece Hungary
Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Poland
Portugal Romania Slovakia Slovenia Spain
a) Deloitte analysis 18
National Recovery and Resilience Plans The analysis has focussed on 20 Member States, accounting for c.72% of the RRF funding available.a The estimated breakdowns of funding are indicative as:
· Plans vary in their detail and structure some provide specific breakdowns aligned to the EC guidance and the Digital Decade targets whereas others describe single packages of investment covering multiple areas, with no description of targeted outcomes.
· Investments in other areas of the NRRPs not explicitly linked to Digital may implicitly cover digital investment but have not been analysed.
· Member States may be planning to achieve the targets through separate national plans, which have not been reviewed as part of this study (as this study is focussed primarily on NRRPs). Indeed plans also vary in the mix of RRF funding together with funding from national budgets.
DESI Indicators
The EU's key indicator of digital progress, DESI, provides indicators that measure some of the key Digital Decade targets. Therefore it has been used as a proxy of the progress that is required to achieve digital development.
Digital Decade Targets
The targets set out by the Digital Compass provide the structure to qualitatively assess the extent to which the NRRPs can help achieve holistic digital development.
The qualitative analysis has been supported by high level quantitative analysis of some selected targets.
Member States covered in deep-dive analysis (see page 35 onwards):
Czechia France Germany Greece
Hungary Italy Poland Portugal
Romania Spain
These countries were selected because their NRRPs were published within the timeframe of analysis for this report, and the quantum of funding was relatively high compared to other EU Member States that are not covered.
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | The Approach
Alignment between the RRF, the Digital Decade Targets and DESI
Digital investment guidance for the RFF, the Digital Decade targets and DESI overlap but do not fully align in their `roadmap' for digital development
The targets, DESI and RFF priorities Member States were advised by the Commission to consider seven categories of digital investments. These broadly align to the four areas identified in the Digital Decade targets. The exception to this is greening of the digital sector. The Digital Decade target areas have several targets within them. In this assessment, up to two targets have been selected in each area as representative, but not exhaustive, to provide high-level quantitative analysis to supplement qualitative analysis. The targets have been selected to produce a set that:
· provides coverage of the four areas set out by the targets;
· enables achievement of wider digital development; and
· is quantifiable and measured where possible. The selected targets broadly align with DESI indicators. However, DESI does not include direct measures for key targets such as 5G coverage, e-medical records and e-IDs. Note that public services includes health services, however, because of the Digital Decade targets, education is covered under skills.
a) The measure is based on a subset of cloud services (hosting of the enterprise's database, accounting software applications, CRM software, computing power). b) The Digital intensity Index (DII) measures the availability at firm level of 12 different digital technologies including access to fast broadband (30 Mbps or above) and ICT specialists. c) The following life events are included in the scope: Regular business operations and Business Startup; Moving; Owning and driving a car; Starting a small claims procedure; Family; Career and Studying. d) Eurostat provides a measure of the % of the population accessing e-medical records, but this is a demand-side metric whereas the Digital Decade target is supply-side. The demand-side measure is still cited as context in some cases in this report.
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Digital investment categories
Connectivity
Digital capacities and advanced technology
Digital-related investment in R&D
Digitalisation of businesses
Human capital
E-government
Greening the digital sector
Target area
Selected Digital Decade
(Digital Decade) target
DESI indicator
Infrastructure 100% of households with gigabit connectivity
Coverage of households by any fixed Very High Capacity Networks (1b2)
100% 5G coverage in populated areas
Not available
Businesses
75% of European enterprises using cloud computing services
Businesses using cloud services (4a4)a
90% of SMEs with at least a basic level of digital intensity
Digital intensity Index (Not DESI)b
Skills
80% of adults with at least Adults with at least
basic digital skills
`basic' digital skills (2a1)
20m ICT specialists, with convergence between women and men
Number of ICT specialists (2b1)
Public services
100% online provision of key public services
Access to digital medical records and use of digital ID
Online Service Completion (5a3)c
Not available d
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | The Approach
Interpreting the data in this report
This report presents estimates of NRRP funding that is linked to Digital Decade targets, as well as illustrative projections to 2030 for key digitalisation metrics
20
NRRP funding linked to Digital Decade targets
This report presents estimates of the NRRP funding linked to Digital Decade target areas, at an aggregate level across 20 Member States and also at national level for selected individual Member States.
The estimates are based on the NRRP documents of each Member State covered in this report, which have been analysed in order to identify investments or funding packages that appear to be linked to each of the four Digital Decade pillars (Infrastructure, Businesses, Skills and Public services). Where possible, funding linked to specific targets within each pillar (e.g. gigabit or 5G) has also been identified.
The analysis is based on a review of the plans that were first published by each of the 20 Member States (as they came available) and does not take account of subsequent changes or additional submissions to those plans after the date of the first publication (see page 91 for links to the plan documents that were reviewed as part of this study).
The attribution of funding to each pillar or target is based only on information publicly available at the time each plan was first published and/or the analysis of that plan was undertaken. In cases where funding appears to be linked to multiple pillars or multiple targets, and where a breakdown has not been identified, the funding is only included once in the total funding amount linked to Digital Decade targets. However, in attributing this funding to specific pillars or target areas, it is assumed that up to all the funding could be used to achieve the individual target (in the absence of the funding being explicitly allocated to one target). For example, where a plan references funding to support 5G network infrastructure as well as other objectives, in our analysis the funding would still be described as `funding linked to the 5G coverage target'.
As a result, there is potential for the same funding to be attributed to more than one target area such that this funding is counted twice in the analysis. Therefore, funding linked to individual pillars, or targets areas may represent an upper bound and may not sum to the same amount as the aggregate figures presented in this report.
Equally where funding has not been explicitly linked to achieving a target, it is not allocated to that target even though it may indirectly contribute to achieving it. For example, where a plan includes funding for improving availability of digital tools and connectivity in schools or hospitals, in our analysis, the funding would be allocated entirely to achieving the Digital Skills and Public services targets respectively. However, whilst it could perceivably contribute towards Digital Infrastructure targets as well, it would not be included as there is no explicit link to the target.
Digitalisation metrics: Illustrative projections to 2030
This report presents a range of digitalisation metrics for the EU as a whole and for selected individual Member States.
The analysis includes illustrative projections to 2030 for these metrics. Projections for future values are formed by using linear regression, based on the observed trend in the historic data from 2015 onwards.
These projections may be useful as a high-level indication of the potential future trajectory of each metric based on current trends, but should be interpreted with caution. Due to the multitude of factors at play in achieving digital transformation, historic trends may not always provide an accurate indication of future trends.
In particular, the trends may not be linear in the future, for example, extending connectivity to rural areas is typically more costly and challenging than in urban areas, which can mean that growth rate in coverage declines over time after an initial period.
The projections are also dependent on the accuracy of historic third-party data over the period 2015-2020, which may be subject to a margin of measurement error and/or differences in measurement methodology across Member States.
Overview of selected Member States
Progress towards the Digital Decade targets
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Overview of selected Member States
Overview of the 20 selected NRRPs
Funding varies significantly across the four pillars, with relatively few NRRPs linking funds to ICT specialists, e-IDs and cloud adoption
Target areas
Infrastructure
Household gigabit connectivity
5G coverage in populated areas
Skills
Adults with basic digital skills
ICT specialists
Digital Decade Target (2030) 16
100%
100%
80%
20m
EU27 Average (2020)
44%
14%
58%
8.51m
No. of NRRPs the target is mentioned in
17/20
16/20
20/20
9/20
No. of NRRPs with funding linked to targetb
16/20
13/20
20/20
9/20
Sum of related funding linked to target
Up to 16.9bn
Up to 15.2bn
Up to 44.9bn
Up to 5.2bn
Target on track to be met
by 2030 based on trend
No c
analysisd
-
No
No
Themes
Infrastructure packages do not always distinguish between 5G and gigabit.
Specific allocation of funding to 5G and gigabit would be required to understand the progress towards these two separate Digital Decade targets.
The challenges of extending coverage in rural areas do not appear to be addressed in most of the NRRPs.
All countries have committed to improving basic adults and student digital skills.
Investments include provision of portable devices.
Reference to ICT specialists is limited, funding of PhD programmes or more advanced trainings is considered as spending in ICT specialists.
Businesses SME basic digital
intensity
90%
60% f
20/20
Cloud users
75%
18%
12/20
Public services Online services
availability
100%
90%
20/20
e-Medical records
100%
- a
15/20
e-IDs 80%
- a 9/20
19/20
10/20
20/20
13/20
7/20
Up to 27.8bn Up to 12.4bn Up to 18.9bn Up to 8.2bn Up to 2.8bn
No
No
Yes
-
-
Most countries have specific spending commitments to support SME digitalisation, although general spending towards business digitalisation, not targeted specifically to SMEs, is also accounted for.
Cloud computing investments are often part of broader packages linked to business digitalisation.e
Online services availability cover a wide range of investments including digital upgrading of information systems / infrastructure. Only investments related to key public services are considered.
E-medical records are often part of the wider Health Packages in the NRRPs and specific investments for the development of e-records is not available for all countries.
E-IDs is missing from many of the plans but may be part of the solution towards online services.
a) No appropriate data available at the time of undertaking the analysis; b) Deloitte analysis, due to the difference how specific plans are, these numbers may include the value of the wider package or were double-counted
under two sub-areas of the Digital Decade targets, and thus may be an overestimate; c) Trends are promising, but rural coverage will be challenging; d) Based on current trends analysis, further details on the deep dive
pages for each target. For 5G coverage, e-medical records and e-IDs there is insufficient historical data to track trends; e) Cloud computing investments target SMEs and all enterprises separately in some cases. Thus, the
22
cloud users figure includes both investments to account for this. Therefore, SMEs basic digital intensity does not cover cloud investments to avoid double counting. f) Reflects 2019 EU27 average.
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Overview of selected Member States
Infrastructure Overview of Member State plans and progress on gigabit connectivity and 5G coverage of populated areas
23
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Overview of selected Member States
Infrastructure
Very High Capacity Networks (VHCN)
Despite recent encouraging growth in rollout of gigabit connectivity, there remains a risk that the proposed investments could fail to deliver the 2030 target, particularly given the challenges of rural deployment
a) This is likely an overestimate of the actual value due to double counting of broader investment packages that consider 5G and gigabit networks without providing a detailed breakdown
Current trend Overall connectivity has improved across the EU27, and Member States are increasingly making progress to increase the coverage further.
· For instance, Next Generation Access (NGA) network coverage has increased by 17.2 percentage points in a five-year period, from 66.3% in 2015 to 86% in 2020.17
· The proportion of households covered with VHCNs to enable gigabit connectivity across the EU has increased from 17% in 2015 to 44% in 202018. However this is still 56 percentage points below the 100% coverage target for 2030.
· Despite this progress, additional funding is likely to be required to extend the coverage to rural and remote areas as the associated cost of infrastructure deployment in those areas, especially to enable gigabit connectivity, can be expected to be very high.
National Recovery and Resilience Plans Most NRRPs have dedicated specific funding for the rollout of gigabit networks, which are often complemented by additional funding from National Broadband Plans of c.78bn.19
· In some NRRPs, gigabit networks were part of a broader digital infrastructure package, also including 5G rollout. Therefore, the analysis may double count investments in gigabit and 5G deployment, likely resulting in overestimating the actual investment committed.
· Funding linked to broadband rollout more broadly that does not enable gigabit connectivity has not been considered for the analysis.
24
Households covered by VHCN*
100%
80%
60%
44%
40% 17%
20%
0%
100%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
EU27
Target 2030
Source: DESI, Deloitte analysis. Dotted lines represent indicative projections based on linear regression.
* Illustrative projection to 2030 estimated using simple linear forecast based on historic data from 2015 to 2020. Risk that this may over/under state the actual outturn particularly given growth between 2019 and 2020.
Summary of plans
Proposals to support VHCN Household Coverage
No. of plans with funding linked to target 16/20
Funding linked to the target
Up to 16.9bna
Funding linked to the target as a proportion of total funding (NRRP)
3%
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Overview of selected Member States
Infrastructure
5G coverage
NRRPs vary in terms of detail and emphasis placed on 5G; given that many commercial deployments of 5G remain at a nascent stage across Member States, this means that achievement of the 5G target appears particularly uncertain
a) This is likely an overestimate of the actual value due to double counting of broader investment packages that consider 5G and gigabit networks without providing a detailed breakdown.
Current trend In many Member States, 5G rollout has started but is in the early stages of deployment. Currently 14% of populated areas in the EU are covered by 5G (with no historic data to analyse trends20). Even in Member States where 5G rollout appears most advanced, the rollout has been predominantly in major cities and large towns. In several Member States spectrum identified for 5G has either only recently been awarded or is still to be assigned, potentially limiting the extent of deployment to date. Significant additional investment will likely be required to promote the further rollout of 5G networks across Europe and achieve the target of 100% coverage in populated areas. This could, in turn, also support the progression to 6G.
National Recovery and Resilience Plans Most EU countries considered in this analysis include increased 5G rollout as part of their NRRPs.
· The level of commitment to deploy 5G networks varies across countries. In some countries, 5G deployment was part of a broader digital infrastructure package, while others have linked specific funding to 5G.
· The analysis may have double counted some of the investment in 5G and gigabit networks when they have not been distinguished in the NRRPs.
5G specific funding from the NRRPs are further complemented by additional investments from the National Broadband Plans of c.78bn. 21
Summary of plans
Proposals to support 5G coverage
No. of plans with funding linked to target 13/20
Funding linked to the target
Up to 15.2bna
Funding linked to the target as a proportion of total funding (NRRP)
3%
25
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Overview of selected Member States
Skills Overview of Member State plans and progress on promoting basic digital skills and the number of ICT specialists
26
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Overview of selected Member States
Skills
Adult basic digital skills
The current trajectory indicates a material risk that the 2030 target for Digital Skills could not be met unless there is a significant acceleration
a) Illustrative projection to 2030 using a simple linear forecast based on historic data from 2015 to 2020.
Current trend The average proportion of adults with basic digital skills across the EU27 is 58% in 2020.22 This is 22 percentage points lower than the 80% target. Based on its current trajectory the proportion of adults with basic digital skills is expected to reach circa 66% by 2030 in absence of any further reforms or investment such as the RRF or other forms of funding.a Achieving the target will require a significant acceleration in the rate of adults obtaining basic digital skills over the next few years.
National Recovery and Resilience Plans NRRPs have linked specific funding towards the following areas that are considered to be supporting the digital skill level of the adult population:
· Digital skills for all: Investment in digital technologies and services such as distance learning or educational online platforms that supports the development of digital skills of all people, including vulnerable or excluded groups.
· Digital skills for students: Digitalisation of the educational system, including digital equipment for schools and e-education programs, which will contribute to an increased digital skills level of the adult population in the future.
· Digital skills for workers: Vocational programmes that aim to increase digital skills of the workforce across different industries.
Adults with basic digital skills*
100%
80%
80%
60% 54%
58%
40%
20%
0%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
EU27
Target 2030
Source: DESI, Deloitte analysis. Dotted lines represent indicative projections based on linear regression
* Illustrative projection to 2030 estimated using simple linear forecast based on historic data from 2015 to 2020
Summary of plans
Proposals to support adults develop basic digital skills
No. of plans with funding linked to target 20/20
Funding linked to the target
Up to 44.9bn
Funding linked to the target as a proportion of total funding (NRRP)
8%
27
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Overview of selected Member States
Skills
ICT specialists
Meeting the 2030 target will require the number of ICT specialists to increase by 135%; however, less than half of NRRPs specifically link funding to this target area and the amount of linked funding is relatively low compared to other areas
a) Illustrative projection to 2030 using a simple linear forecast based on historic data from 2015 to 2020.
Current trend The total number of ICT specialists currently in the EU27 is 8.51 million, 11.49 million short of the 2030 target of 20 million.23 Based on a simple linear forecast using historic data from 2015 to 2020, it might be expected to reach circa 12 million by 2030 if conditions remained the same.a Achieving the target will require a significant acceleration in the number of ICT specialists across the Member States over the next few years.
National Recovery and Resilience Plans NRRPs provide limited reference to ICT specialists and often consider them as a part of a broader investment package.
· According to the European Commission, ICT specialists are defined as those with advanced digital skills that contribute to the further development of the digital economy. Based on this and limited reference to ICT specialists in the National Recovery Plans, funding for PhD programmes or more advanced training has also been considered as spending on ICT specialists.
· For instance, 9 out of the 20 countries have linked specific funding to promote an increase in ICT specialist. Except for one country, NRRPs have not specified by how much the number of ICT specialist should increase through the funding.
· However, EU countries have committed to improve the digital skills level of adults and students, supported by large investment packages, that could indirectly increase the amount of ICT specialists.
ICT specialists (millions)*
25
20
20
15
10 6.54
8.51
5
0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
EU27
Target 2030
Source: DESI, Deloitte analysis. Dotted lines represent indicative projections based on linear regression
*Illustrative projection to 2030 estimated using simple linear forecast based on historic data from 2015 to 2020
Summary of plans
Proposals to support the development of ICT specialists
No. of plans with funding linked to target 9/20
Funding linked to the target
Up to 5.2bn
Funding linked to the target as a proportion of total funding (NRRP)
1%
28
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Overview of selected Member States
Businesses Overview of Member State plans and progress on promoting digital intensity of SMEs and cloud adoption
29
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Overview of selected Member States
Businesses
Digital intensity of SMEs
SME digitalisation as captured by the Digital Intensity Index is relatively stable over time and requires substantial growth to reach the 2030 target; nearly all NRRPs have linked funds to this objective
a) Illustrative projection to 2030 using a simple linear forecast based on historic data from 2015 to 2019.
Current trend The proportion of SMEs with at least a basic level of digital intensity across the EU27 is 60% in 2019.24 This is 30 percentage points lower compared to the target for 90% of SMEs to achieve a basic level of digital intensity by 2030. Based on the previous 5 years of SME digital intensity, there is no clear trajectory towards the target. On this basis, the current gap to the target could be expected to persist in the absence of any reforms or investments such as the RRF or other forms of funding.a
National Recovery and Resilience Plans Spending commitments towards SMEs digitalisation are identified in most of the National Recovery Plans.
· The Digital Intensity Index (DII) is the underlying metric behind the target and tracks the availability of 12 different digital technologies at firm level. Technologies examined include, among others, access to fast broadband (30 Mbps or above), resource to ICT specialists and internet for at least 50% of persons employed. Thus, SMEs having a score of 4 or higher out of a 12-point scale are considered as having at least a basic digital intensity.
· Proposed investments by the countries studied to achieve the target include financial instruments to support investments in research and innovation, automated software processes and sector specific investments targeting SME digitalisation.
· Funding that may be available as part of a broader package has been excluded from the analysis as there is no reliable way to apportion this funding.
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Digital intensity of SMEs
100%
80%
60%
57%
40%
20%
0%
EU27
Target 2030
Source: Eurostat (DII), Deloitte analysis
90% 60%
Summary of plans
Proposals to support digital intensity of SMEs
No. of plans with funding linked to target 19/20
Funding linked to the target
Up to 27.8bn
Funding linked to the target as a proportion of total funding (NRRP)
5%
30
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Overview of selected Member States
Businesses
Cloud computing
Cloud adoption trends reflect the broader trend of SME digitalisation; with half of NRRPs linking funding to this area specifically, this may not be sufficient to meet the Digital Decade aspirations in this area
a) Illustrative projection to 2030 using a simple linear forecast based on historic data from 2015 to 2020.
Current trend The proportion of businesses using certain cloud computing services across the EU27 is 18% in 2020.25 This is 57 percentage points lower compared to the target for 75% of European enterprises to take up cloud computing by 2030. Based on a simple linear forecast using historic data from 2015 to 2020, the proportion of enterprises that have taken up cloud computing is expected to reach circa 40% by 2030 in absence of any further reforms or investment such as the RRF or other forms of funding, which is 35 percentage points lower compared to the target.a Achieving the target will require a significant acceleration in the rate of businesses adopting cloud computing services over the next few years.
National Recovery and Resilience Plans Most NRRPs have made commitments towards cloud computing takeup by enterprises.
· Proposed measures by Member States include tax credits to businesses using cloud computing, and investments in cloud infrastructure and cloud skills.
· The analysis has included specific investment to increase the digitalisation of all enterprises, including SMEs and large enterprises.
· Only investments and reforms that are directly targeting cloud computing take-up or facilitate the adoption of the relevant technology have been considered in the analysis. Funding that may be available as part of a broader package has been excluded.
Businesses using cloud computing*
100%
80%
75%
60%
40%
20% 11%
18%
0%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
EU27
Target 2030
Source: DESI, Deloitte analysis. Dotted lines represent indicative projections based on linear regression
* Illustrative projection to 2030 using a simple linear forecast based on historic data from 2015 to 2020.
Summary of plans
Proposals to support business cloud computing
No. of plans with funding linked to target 10/20
Funding linked to the target
Up to 12.4bn
Funding linked to the target as a proportion of total funding (NRRP)
2%
31
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Overview of selected Member States
Public services Overview of Member State plans and progress on promoting online service completion and provision of e-medical records and e-IDs
32
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Overview of selected Member States
Public services
Online service completion
Achieving the 100% target for online service completion appears feasible; however, this is a relatively narrow measure and NRRPs generally reflect a broader need to support digitalisation of public services
a) Illustrative projection to 2030 using a simple linear forecast based on historic data from 2015 to 2020.
Current trend The share of administrative steps related to major life events that can be done online (online service completion ) across the EU27 is 90% in 2020.26 This is 10 percentage points lower compared to the target for 100% online provision of key public services. Online public services include among registering a business, family related support etc. Projections to 2030 using a simple linear forecast based on historic data from 2015 to 2020 indicate that the online provision of key public services is expected to meet the EU target by 2030 even in the absence of any further investments or reforms such as the RRF or other forms of funding.a However, even when the target is achieved, it is likely that a wider range of services that could be more efficient online is still accessible offline due to the narrow focus of this metric.
National Recovery and Resilience Plans All the Member States considered in the analysis have made spending commitments to support the objective.
· Investments to reach the target focus on the digital upgrading of the state and public administration, including teleworking, migration of IT applications to cloud and digitalisation of various state departments.
· Spending commitments for the development of e-IDs and e-medical Records have been excluded and addressed separately.
· It is worth noting that the metric `Online Service Completion' consists of 8 key public services related to major life events. Therefore, the narrow focus of the indicator does not capture the wider digitalisation of public service provision.
Online service completion*
100%
90%
80% 75%
60%
40%
20%
0%
100%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
EU27
Target 2030
Source: DESI, Deloitte analysis. Dotted lines represent indicative projections based on linear regression
* Illustrative projection to 2030 estimated using simple linear forecast based on historic data from 2015
Summary of plans
Proposals to support online service completion
No. of plans with funding linked to target 20/20
Funding linked to the target
Up to 18.9bn
Funding linked to the target as a proportion of total funding (NRRP)
3%
33
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Overview of selected Member States
Public services
E-medical records and E-IDs
Of the 20 NRRPs reviewed, 13 plans linked funding explicitly to e-medical records, while 7 plans explicitly linked funding to electronic identification
Current trend
Significant funding has been linked to e-health and digitisation of healthcare services, however for this target this study focusses on funding linked explicitly to e-medical records (in whole or in part). Most of the plans recognise the need for the development of e-medical records, however 13 out of the 20 plans have made explicit spending commitments to address this need.
The funding available to meet this target is relatively low, however it does not account for investments to digitalise e-health. Many NRRPs have significant commitments for the development of telemedicine and teleconsultation as well as the digitalisation of the health care system in general. While e-medical records might be a part of those broader health packages, the spending is not reflected in the analysis as there is no reliable way to apportion this funding.
National Recovery and Resilience Plans
The development of electronic identification is the least addressed target in the NRRPs with 9 out of the 20 countries mentioning the target and 7 out of 20 countries making a financial commitment.
Governments may consider e-IDs as an enabler of the provision of key public services, and therefore only acknowledge them under broader packages to promote the digitalisation of public administration.
NRRPs that acknowledge the target, but do not allocate a specific funding towards e-IDs, have not been considered in the analysis.
Summary of plans l E-medical record target
Proposals to support E-Medical Records
No. of plans with funding linked to target 13/20
Funding linked to the target
Up to 8.2bn
Funding linked to the target as a proportion of total funding (NRRP)
1%
Summary of plans l E-IDs target
Proposals to support E-IDs
No. of plans with funding linked to target 7/20
Funding linked to the target
Up to 2.8bn
Funding linked to the target as a proportion of total funding (NRRP)
0.5%
34
Member States Deepdives
Progress towards the Digital Decade targets
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Member State Deepdives
Summary of gap to 2030 Digital Decade targets across Member States
The size of the gap to 2030 targets varies greatly across Member States, particularly with regard to VHCN; some Member States could risk an imbalance between available connectivity and capabilities to exploit this connectivity successfully.
The size of the gap to achieving 2030 Digital Decade targets varies greatly across Member States. This is particularly evident in relation to VHCN coverage, where Denmark and Luxembourg are already extending coverage to the last 10% of households, whilst Greece has yet to reach the first 10%. Whilst the digitalisation measures are often correlated, the comparison suggests that some Member States may face greater challenges in certain areas. For example, Member States such as Latvia, Portugal and Romania have already achieved relatively high levels of VHCN coverage, but may face a risk that employees and firms lack the capability to fully exploit this connectivity as a driver of growth, absent sufficient investment. Equally, Member States such as Germany and Austria have higher levels of digital skills and intensity, but their slower progress in VHCN deployment could entail a risk that connectivity does not meet individual and business needs. The comparisons presented here should be interpreted with caution. The set of metrics used in this analysis does not capture the full complexity of current and future digitalisation in each Member State.
36
Gap in percentage points between current level and 2030 target level
Country
2030 TARGET Denmark Luxembourg Spain Latvia Portugal Romania Belgium Slovenia Lithuania Poland Slovakia France Croatia Hungary Germany Italy Czechia Austria Cyprus Greece
Infrastructure
Skills
Businesses
Public Services
VHCN
Basic Digital ICT Specialists Basic Digital Cloud Online Service
Skills
(as a % of population) Intensity Computing Completion
100%
80%
4.5%
90%
75%
100%
93%
70%
2.7%
85%
41%
99%
92%
65%
3.0%
66%
16%
90%
89%
57%
1.5%
64%
16%
96%
88%
43%
1.7%
46%
11%
96%
83%
52%
1.9%
59%
16%
99%
68%
31%
1.0%
31%
7%
70%
66%
61%
2.1%
74%
31%
88%
66%
55%
2.0%
54%
17%
91%
61%
56%
1.6%
71%
17%
96%
60%
44%
1.5%
38%
7%
87%
47%
54%
1.9%
51%
14%
85%
44%
57%
1.8%
57%
15%
93%
43%
53%
1.5%
54%
22%
73%
43%
49%
1.7%
42%
11%
87%
33%
70%
2.4%
67%
12%
90%
30%
42%
1.4%
58%
15%
92%
29%
62%
2.1%
74%
16%
82%
14%
66%
2.2%
69%
11%
97%
10%
45%
1.4%
63%
14%
79%
7%
51%
0.7%
32%
7%
84%
Key: 2030 target level
Furthest from target
Source: DESI, DII and Eurostat data for latest available year (2019 for Basic Digital Intensity and 2020 for all other metrics).
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Member State Deepdives
Breakdown by country
Summary of NRRP funding
Italy
NRRP funding
linked to DD Infrastructure
target areas
43.3bn
16%
Skills 34%
Businesses 34%
linked to Digital Decade
Spain
25.4bn
16%
29%
48%
France
22.1bn
4%
59%
24%
targets across Member States Germany
10.5bn
14%
Poland
7.5bn
35%
17% 25%
27% 22%
Portugal
4.0bn
5%
46%
16%
Skills and Businesses are the pillars with the largest amount of linked funding in absolute terms, although there are wide variations across NRRPs with regard to the focus on each of the four Digital Decade target areas.
Greece
4.5bn
12%
40%
11%
Romania
4.3bn
2%
26%
20%
Austria
1.5bn
61%
12%
16%
Czechia
1.5bn
18%
33%
28%
Hungary
1.4bn
0%
95%
0%
Overall snapshot | NRRP funding linked to Digital Decade target areas (Total, 20 countries)
Slovakia
1.3bn
0%
29%
16%
18bn
In aggregate, NRRP funding linked to Digital Decade targets is
Slovenia
1.2bn
2%
5%
6%
focused particularly on Skills and Businesses, which account for up
Lithuania
0.9bn
53%
4%
11%
to 87bn in total.
47bn
The smaller amount linked to Infrastructure may largely reflect the
Belgium
0.7bn
13%
39%
2%
30bn
existence of separate funding being channelled through NBPs.
Latvia
0.5bn
3%
13%
40%
40bn
Skills Businesses
Public services Infrastructure
Croatia
0.5bn
27%
34%
8%
Cyprus
0.3bn
20%
36%
30%
Source: Deloitte analysis of NRRPs. Figures may not add up to the total NRRP funding linked to Digital Decade targets, due to some funding packages cutting across more than one pillar.
Denmark
0.1bn
10%
52%
27%
Luxembourg 0.0bn
0%
87%
0%
AVERAGE
16%
33%
20%
Breakdown by country
Across countries there are wide variations in approach. In most plans, links to Skills and Public services are prevalent, whereas there are several examples of plans with limited or no funding linked to Infrastructure and Businesses. However, the analysis below does not include funding outside of the NRRPs (e.g. Infrastructure area does not
37
include funding from NBPs) and funding has been allocated to a target only where it is explicitly linked to that target, even though it may indirectly contribute to achieving a target. As a result, allocations may not reflect the actual funding allocation for some areas (see page 20 for details on the methodology and interpreting the analysis).
The remainder of this section sets out more detailed analysis for ten selected Member States: Italy, Spain, France, Germany, Poland, Greece, Portugal, Romania, Hungary and Czechia.
Public Services
17% 21% 13% 41% 19% 33% 37% 54% 11% 21% 5% 55% 87% 33% 45% 43% 30% 14% 10% 13% 31%
100%-0% 100%-0% 100%-0% 100%-0%
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Member State Deepdives
Czechia
Overview of the plans and progress against targets
Around 23% of Czechia's total NRRP funding has been allocated to digital transformation, of which up to around 1.5bn appears to be linked to Digital Decade targets.a Achieving these will require a significant improvement across Infrastructure, ICT specialists and cloud adoption.
Skills
Infrastructure
Progress against targets
Basic digital skills 62% Czechia (2020) 58% EU (2020) 80% Target (2030)
Businesses
Basic digital intensity
74% Czechia (2019) 60% EU (2019) 90% Target (2030)
Public services
a) Estimate derived by converting local currency to Euros using exchange rate of 25.558 CZK/Euro as at 01/06/21.
38
VHCN household coverage
29% Czechia (2020) 44% EU (2020) 100% Target (2030)
Commentary and NRRP commitments
VHCN coverage in Czechia has been expanding gradually over the last five years and the first 5G commercial deployments were made in 2020. However, achieving the EU targets by 2030 will require significant investment in network upgrades over the next few years. Czechia's NRRP outlines investments of up to 0.3bn linked to the development of 5G and VHCN.
ICT specialists (million) 0.22 Czechia (2020)
0.48 Target (2030)
Cloud adoption 16% Czechia (2020) 18% EU (2020) 75% Target (2030)
In terms of digital skills Czechia is broadly in line with the EU27 average, but will still need to increase the proportion of the population with digital skills by around 18 percentage points to achieve the EU target. The number of ICT specialists has been increasing gradually, but is still less than half the target level.
Across a wide range of packages related to digital skills, a total of up to 0.5bn in the NRRP has been linked to achieving the skills targets.
Digital intensity across businesses is higher compared to the EU27 average (74% vs 60%), and progressing well towards the target of 90%. However adoption of cloud computing remains relatively low and will need to increase significantly over the decade to achieve the EU target.
Czechia's NRRP has linked up to around 0.4bn of funding to business digitalisation and adoption of cloud computing services.
Online services completion
82% Czechia (2020) 90% EU (2020) 100% Target (2030)
Online provision of public services has been increasing over the last five years in Czechia. To achieve the EU target Czechia needs to increase online service completion by 18 percentage points by 2030.
Up to around 0.2bn of funding within Czechia's NRRP is linked to digitalisation of public services, with up to a further 0.1bn linked to e-medical records.
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Member State Deepdives
Czechia
Infrastructure
Gigabit connectivity
5G coverage in populated areas
Achieving the EU targets for VHCN and 5G coverage will require a significant increase in the rate of network rollout and the investment to support it, given the current position; Up to around 0.3bn of funding is linked to achieving the targets in the plan.
Current trend VHCN networks cover less than a third of households, which is well below the EU27 average of 44%. Based on the current trajectory, the country is not on track to meet the 100% target absent additional measures. Achieving the EU target will require VHNC coverage to be extended to 71% of households in the country by 2030, requiring significant network investment in the coming years.
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs) Within Czechia's plans, up to around 0.2bn of funding is linked to a series of reforms and investments to support the development of digital high capacity networks across the country.
Current trend
Czechia had assigned 17% of harmonized 5G spectrum as of the end of 2020, which has impacted on rollout to date.27
4G population coverage in Czechia was reported to have reached 99.6% as at the end of 2020.28 In terms of 5G coverage, mobile network operators (MNOs) in Czechia have announced that they have undertaken initial commercial 5G deployments mainly in densely populated urban areas (e.g. Prague, Brno etc.). For example, Vodafone announced in October 2020 that it had launched its 5G Non-Standalone (NSA) network, and by February 2021 it had reported that 5G was available in more than 130 cities and smaller municipalities, covering more than 25% of the population. In December 2020, T-Mobile announced its 5G network covered one million people in 14 cities (around 10% of the population).29 This suggests that Czechia is progressing well towards the 5G coverage EU target but there is clearly significant further investment needed to reach the target.a
VHCN (% of households covered)
100%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
17% 14%
0%
44% 29%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Czech ia
EU27
Target 2030
Source: DESI, Deloitte analysis. Dotted lines represent indicative projections based on linear regression. 39
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs) The NRRP outlines reforms and investments with a total value of up to around 0.1bn linked to support 5G deployment including infrastructure and 5G services.
a) Many, if not all, of the 5G deployments that have been announced are understood to be based on non-standalone alone (NSA) architecture, which may not deliver the full extent of network performance and features (e.g. ultra low latency), required to enable the full extent of 5G use cases. 5G Standalone (SA) deployments are expected to deliver this but are likely to require significant additional investment.
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Member State Deepdives
Czechia
Skills
Across several packages related to digital skills, a total of up to 0.5bn has been linked to achieving the EU targets, however achieving targets will require 18 percentage point increase in the proportion of people with basic digital skills and more than doubling the number of ICT specialists.
Adult basic digital skills
ICT specialists
Current trend The proportion of the population with basic digital skills has been increasing in recent years and reached 62% in 2020, above the EU27 average of 58%. However, if the recent trend continues on the same trajectory, Czechia may not achieve the target of 80% by 2030. An acceleration in the development of skills and the investment to support it is required to achieve the target by 2030.
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs) Up to around 0.5bn of funding has been linked to the development of digital skills including the implementation of the revised DigCompEd curriculum and framework (0.02bn), equipping schools with digital technologies (0.2bn) and vocational training enhancing digital skills (0.3bn).
Current trend The number of ICT specialists in Czechia has increased by around 22% from 2015 to 2020. However, achieving the EU target will require more than a doubling in the number of ICT specialists in the country by 2030.
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs) The NRRP includes up to around 0.01bn of funding linked to enhancing competences in cyber security and increasing the number of cyber security specialists.
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Individuals with at least basic digital skills (% of 16-74 population)
100%
80%
60%
57%
62%
40% 54%
58%
20%
0%
Czech ia
EU27
Target 2030
Source: DESI, Deloitte analysis. Dotted lines represent indicative projections based on linear regression. 40
Number of ICT specialists (millions)
0.5
0.48
80%
0.4
0.3 0.18
0.22
0.2
0.1
0.0
Czechia
Target 2030
Source: DESI, Deloitte analysis. Dotted lines represent indicative projections based on linear regression. The Member State share of the total EU ICT specialists target (20m) has been apportioned based on population share
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Member State Deepdives
Czechia
Businesses
Digital intensity of SMEs
Businesses using cloud computing
Czechia appears to be progressing well towards the EU target on SME digitalisation, however further improvement in cloud adoption is required to meet the targets; Up to around 0.4bn of Czechia's NRRP funds have been linked to the digitalisation of SMEs and cloud computing.
Current trend Czechia appears to be progressing well towards the EU target on SME digitalisation, with 74% of SMEs reported to have at least a basic level of digital intensity, well above the EU27 average of 60% (although in previous years it was broadly tracking the EU27 average). However, reported levels of digital intensity have changed from year to year and to achieve and sustain the EU target will still require further growth in SME digital adoption.
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs) Within Czechia's plans, up to around 0.4bn is linked to digitalisation of enterprises including setting up a system of support for investment and development of innovative companies, start-ups and new technologies, support for digital transformation technologies, automation and software to support decision making.
Current trend Levels of cloud adoption amongst businesses remains relatively low at 16% in 2020, albeit broadly in line with the EU27 average of 18%. Achieving the EU target will require around a 59 percentage point increase in cloud adoption by 2030.
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs) Czechia's plans contain funding of up to around 0.03bn that has been explicitly linked to cloud computing and related services including a platform for SME education that will answer all questions regarding AI, cloud and robotics and a joint group for the support and certification of technologies deemed to be `strategic', including cloud.
SMEs with at least a basic level of digital intensity (%)
100%
80%
60%
57%
56% 40%
20%
0%
90% 74%
60%
Businesses purchasing advanced cloud computing services (%)
100%
80%
75%
60%
40%
20% 11%
18%
0% 9%
16%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Source: Eurostat (DII) 41
Czech ia
EU27
Target 2030
Czech ia *
EU27 *
Target 2030 *
Source: DESI, Deloitte analysis. Dotted lines represent indicative projections based on linear regression. * Missing data for 2016
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Member State Deepdives
Czechia
Public services
Czechia appears to be progressing well towards the EU target on use of online public services, however reported use of e-medical records is well below the EU target; Up to around 0.2bn of the NRRP funds in Czechia have been linked to the digitalisation of public services, with a further 0.1bn linked to the development of e-medical records.
42
Online public services
Current trend In 2020 around 82% of administrative steps related to major life events could be actioned online in Czechia, compared to the EU27 average of 90% and the EU 2030 target of 100%. However, whilst continued transition to digital access is still needed, levels of online access have increased by 24 percentage points since 2015, suggesting that Czechia is on the trajectory to reach the EU target.
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs) Up to around 0.2bn of funding is linked to the provision of key public services including building and developing basic registers and facilities for eGovernment, creation of electronic tools for collecting data on public administration activities and creating the preconditions of digital justice.
E-medical records and e-IDs
Current trend In 2020 only 2% of individuals were reported to have accessed personal health records online, compared to an EU27 average of 10%. This suggests that wholesale improvements are needed to reach the target of 100% of citizens having access to e-medical records. However, 62% of the population sought health information online compared to an EU27 average of 56%, suggesting that demand for online access to medical records could be strong.30
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs) Part of the up to around 0.1bn funding linked to the digitalisation of healthcare within the NRRP includes support for the development of e-medical records. The NRRP does not appear to make an explicit commitment to the development of e-IDs, however the target is likely to be supported by the broader investment targeting the digitalisation of public services.
Administrative steps related to major life events
that can be done online (%)
100% 80% 60% 40%
75% 58%
90% 82%
100%
20%
0%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Czech ia*
EU27
Target 2030
Source: DESI, Deloitte analysis. Dotted lines represent indicative projections based on linear regression. * Linear projection may overestimate the likely outturn given the percentage has remained relatively flat over the last two years.
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Member State Deepdives
France
Overview of the plans and progress against targets
Around 25% of France's total NRRP funding has been allocated to digital transformation. Of this amount up to around 22.1bn appears to be linked to Digital Decade targets across the four areas. Achieving the targets will require a significant improvement in particular across Infrastructure, Skills and Business areas.
Businesses
Skills
Infrastructure
Progress against targets
Basic digital skills 57% France (2020) 58% EU (2020) 80% Target (2030)
Basic digital intensity 57% France (2019) 60% EU (2019) 90% Target (2030)
Public services
43
VHCN household coverage
44% France (2020) 44% EU (2020) 100% Target (2030)
Commentary and NRRP commitments
France is in line with the EU27 average in terms of VHCN coverage, with 44% of households covered in 2020. There appears to be up to around 0.9bn of funding in total linked to the digital decade targets to support the development of 5G and gigabit connectivity.
ICT specialists (million) 1.22 France (2020)
3.01 Target (2030)
Cloud adoption 15% France (2020) 18% EU (2020) 75% Target (2030)
France is broadly in line with the EU27 average in terms of basic digital skills with 57% of the population equipped with at least a basic level of digital skills in 2020. The number of ICT specialists has been increasing gradually to 1.22 million but is still less than half the target level of 3.01 million.
There is up to around 13.1bn in total linked to enhancing the digital skills of the population and promoting the development of ICT specialists to achieve the Digital Decade targets.
France is slightly behind the EU27 average in terms of the share of SMEs covered with basic digital intensity. The share of enterprises using cloud computing is following an upward trend, but remains far behind the EU target.
There is up to 5.2 funding within the NRRP linked to supporting the digitalisation of enterprises (including specifically for SMEs) and the take-up of cloud computing.
Online services completion
93% France (2020) 90% EU (2020) 100% Target (2030)
France has historically been above the EU27 average in terms of general use of online services and in 2020 was 7 percentage points away from the EU target.
Up to around 0.8bn of funding has been linked to the digitalisation of public services, with a further up to 2bn to improve the technical standards of the digital health, including the provision of e-medical records. There is also up to around 0.1bn linked to supporting the provision of e-IDs.
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Member State Deepdives
France
Infrastructure
Up to around 0.9bn of funding is linked to supporting rollout of very high capacity networks (fibre and 5G), but France will need to continue on the current trajectory to achieve the target, which may prove challenging.
44
Gigabit connectivity
Current trend France has broadly tracked the EU27 average in terms of VHCN coverage, with 44% of households covered in 2020. Based on an illustrative projection to 2030, using a simple linear forecast based on historic data from 2015 to 2020, it is expected that France will meet the EU target by 2030. However, the trend does not account for the additional commercial and operational challenges posed in particular when deploying networks to the final 10-20 percent of households which may slow down the rate at which coverage increases (e.g. higher cost per home passed in less populated areas).
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs)
Up to around 0.6bn of funding is contained within France's broadband strategy which aims to amplify new network infrastructure deployments generation (NGA) capable of delivering gigabit connectivity.
VHCN (% of households covered)
100%
80%
60%
44%
40%
17% 20%
44%
0% 14%
100%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
France
EU27
Target 2030
Source: DESI, Deloitte analysis. Dotted lines represent indicative projections based on linear regression.
5G coverage in populated areas
Current trend France has taken steps towards enabling 5G by awarding 33% of harmonised 5G spectrum by the end of 2020.31 4G population coverage in France had reached 99% by the end of 2020.32 As of December 2020, four operators are understood to have undertaken initial 5G deployments in some areas of France; Orange France launched its commercial 5G in 15 municipalities, Bouygues Telecom switched on its 5G network in 20 major cities and targets nationwide coverage by the end of 2021, SFR launched its 5G service in the city of Nice and Free became the fourth operator to launch commercial 5G services in December, and reported covering 40% of the population.33 a
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs) There is up to around 0.3bn of funding linked to support the deployment of 5G networks. The "5G and future telecommunications network technologies" strategy aims to develop French telecom network solutions while developing 5G.
a) Some, if not all, of the 5G deployments that have been announced are understood to be based on non-standalone alone (NSA) architecture, which may not deliver the full extent of network performance and features (e.g. ultra low latency), required to enable the full extent of 5G use cases. 5G Standalone (SA) deployments are expected to deliver this but are likely to require significant additional investment.
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Member State Deepdives
France
Skills
Adult basic digital skills
ICT specialists
Up to around 13.1bn has been linked to helping achieve the skills targets, however achieving the targets is going to require a significant increase in the number of ICT specialists and people with basic digital skills.
Current trend The share of adults with at least basic digital skills has grown gradually in France over the last five years, and has been broadly in line with the EU27 average. In 2020, 57% of the population was equipped with basic digital skills, leaving France 43 percentage points behind the EU target.
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs) Key components of the up to around 13.0bn funding linked to the digital decade targets include strengthening digital skills of the population (0.8bn), ICT training courses (0.8bn) and training of young people in the digital sectors (5.1bn).
Current trend The number of ICT specialists has been increasing gradually in France in the last five years from 0.91 million in 2015 to 1.22 million in 2020. Nevertheless, in order to achieve the EU target, France will need to train or attract 1.79 million more ICT specialists, more than double the current level.
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs) There is up to around 0.1bn of funding to support the development of ICT specialists, which includes granting access to doctoral training targeted at engineers and BAC +5 employees.a
a) BAC+5 is the equivalent to a Master's degree in the UK. The number +5 refers to the years of study after the baccalaureat.
Individuals with at least basic digital skills
Number of ICT specialists (millions)
(% of 16-74 population)
100%
3.5
80%
80%
3.0
3.01
60% 54% 57%
40%
58% 57%
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0 0.91
1.22
20%
0.5
0%
0.0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
France
EU27
Target 2030
Source: DESI, Deloitte analysis. Dotted lines represent indicative projections based on linear regression 45
France
Target 2030 *
Source: DESI, Deloitte analysis. Dotted lines represent indicative projections based on linear regression. * The Member State share of the total EU ICT specialists target (20m) has been apportioned based on population share
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Member State Deepdives
France
Businesses
France has linked up to around 5.2bn of funding to promoting the digitalisation of businesses, but a significant increase in levels of digital intensity and adoption of cloud computing services is required to meet targets.
Digital intensity of SMEs
Current trend The share of SMEs in France with at least a basic digital intensity has grown from 53% in 2015 to 57% in 2019 and is slightly below the EU27 average. Achieving the target will require a significant increase in the proportion of SMEs using digital tools given France was around 33 percent points below the target in 2019.
Businesses using Cloud computing
Current trend Adoption of cloud computing services by businesses in France has broadly been in line with the EU27 average (for the years that data is available), and in 2020 was just below the EU27 average (15% vs 18%).
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs)
The NRRP outlines the proposed actions to enhance digital intensity of SMEs with a total of up to 3.1bn linked to achieving the basic digital intensity target. Key elements of the funding include the digital upgrade of VSEs, SMEs and ETIs (0.4bn), Bpifrancea innovation aid intended for SMEs (around 2bn for 2021-2023) and investments in advanced technologies for all enterprises (0.4bn).
a) Bpifrance is a financial institution providing financing and aid to innovative companies.
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs)
There is funding of up to around 2.1bn linked to cloud computing and related services including investments in modernisation of the aeronautics sector (i.e. automated software processes) (1.8bn) and the cloud strategy (0.3bn) supporting the development of key digital markets.
SMEs with at least a basic level of digital intensity (%)
100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%
57% 53%
90% 60% 57%
Businesses purchasing advanced cloud computing services (%)
100%
80%
75%
60%
40%
20% 11%
0%
8%
18% 15%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
France
Source: Eurostat (DII), Deloitte analysis. 46
EU27
Target 2030
France
EU27
Target 2030
*
*
Source: DESI, Deloitte analysis. Dotted lines represent indicative projections based on linear regression * Missing data for years 2016 and 2018 for France and for 2016 for EU
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Member State Deepdives
France
Public services
Up to around 0.8bn of the NRRP funds in France have been linked to the digitalisation of public services, with a further 2.1bn linked to improve the technical standards of digital health, including the provision of e-medical records and supporting the provision of e-IDs. France appears on track to meet the 2030 target for online public services provided it can maintain the growth in online usage.
Online public services
E-medical records and e-IDs
Current trend France has historically been above the EU27 average, with online public services completion at 93% in 2020, compared to the EU27 average of 90%. The consistent upward trend of public services provided online suggests that France is on track to achieving the EU 2030 target.
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs) As part of up to around 0.8bn funding for the provision of key public services, the NRRP outlines investments for the digital upgrading of the state (0.5bn), cybersecurity (0.1bn) and teleworking of the ministry of interior (0.1bn).
Current trend Data for the current availability of e-medical records is not available for France, however considering other related measures, such as seeking health information online (50% vs 53% EU27 average in 2019) and making appointments online (25% vs 18% EU27 average in 2018), France is broadly on track with the EU27 average. Yet further improvements are needed to reach the target of 100% of citizens having access to e-medical records.34
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs) France has designated up to 2.0bn in funding to catch up with the technical standards of digital health and a further 0.1bn for the development of e-IDs.
Administrative steps related to major life events that can be done online (%)
100% 80% 60%
75% 80%
90% 93%
100%
40%
20%
0%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
France
EU27
Target 2030
Source: DESI, Deloitte analysis. Dotted lines represent indicative projections based on linear regression
47
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Member State Deepdives
Germany
Overview of the plans and progress against targets
Around 50% of Germany's total NRRP funding has been allocated to digital transformation. Of this amount up to around 10.5bn is linked to Digital Decade targets across the four areas. Achieving the targets will require significant increases in VHCN coverage, the number of ICT specialists, and cloud adoption.
Skills
Infrastructure
Progress against targets
Basic digital skills 70% Germany (2020) 58% EU (2020) 80% Target (2030)
Businesses
Basic digital intensity
67% Germany (2019) 60% EU (2019) 90% Target (2030)
Public services
48
VHCN household coverage
33% Germany (2020) 44% EU (2020) 100% Target (2030)
ICT specialists (million) 2.02 Germany (2020)
3.72 Target (2030)
Cloud adoption 12% Germany (2020) 18% EU (2020) 75% Target (2030)
Commentary and NRRP commitments
Germany has historically been below the EU27 average in terms of VHCN coverage, however has managed to reduce the gap in recent years. 5G rollout is relatively well advanced, with the three largest mobile operators expected to reach between 35% and 80% 5G population coverage by the end of 2021.
Within the NRRP there is up to around 1.5bn in total linked to the development of high-speed capacity broadband networks and technologies such as 5G and 6G.
Germany has relatively high levels of digital literacy with 70% of adults already equipped with basic digital skills, compared to the EU27 average of 58%. In terms of ICT specialists, the number has been following an upward trend in recent years however, achieving the target will require training of an additional 1.7 million ICT specialists.
The NRRP outlines investments of up to around 1.8bn in total linked to support the development of basic digital skills and ICT specialists.
Digital intensity across businesses is higher compared to the EU27 average, leaving Germany around 23 percentage points away from the target. The adoption of cloud computing increased between 2015 and 2020, however reaching the target by 2030 will require a significant acceleration in cloud adoption.
Germany has proposed a total of up to around 2.9bn funding that is linked to the digital intensity and cloud adoption targets.
Online services completion
90% Germany (2020) 90% EU (2020) 100% Target (2030)
Germany tracks the EU27 average in terms of online service completion and is 10 percentage points away from the target.
Germany has linked up to around 3.3bn of funding to the digital upgrade of public services with further 0.8bn to support the development of e-medical records and 0.2bn for e-IDs.
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Member State Deepdives
Germany
Infrastructure
Germany is relatively well advanced in terms of 5G coverage and is making progress towards the VHCN coverage target but with a significant gap left to close; Up to around 1.5bn of funding has been linked to supporting further rollout of VHCNs and 5G.
49
Gigabit connectivity
5G coverage in populated areas
Current trend Germany's VHCN coverage expanded from 9% of households covered in 2019 to 33% in 2020 but remains below the EU27 average. Whilst continuing on this trajectory would lead to Germany reaching the target, in practice there are likely to be commercial and operational barriers that could pose challenges to continuing at this rate (e.g. relatively high cost per premises and operational challenges associated with deployment in rural areas). Achieving the target will require significant investment and support in addressing these barriers.
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs) Up to around 1.5bn funding linked to VHCN commitments to developing high-speed capacity broadband networks and backhaul includes networks.
VHCN (% of households covered)
Current trend Germany has already assigned 67% of harmonized 5G spectrum by the end of 2020 the highest rate in the EU.35 4G population coverage in Germany had reached 94% by the end of 202036. In terms of 5G coverage, Germany is relatively well advanced compared to the EU27 average and appears to be progressing well towards the EU target. The first commercial deployments were reported to have taken place in 2019 and MNOs have announced coverage targets. For example, Deutsche Telekom announced plans to cover 80% of the population by the end of 2021; Vodafone announced plans to provide coverage to 30 million people in Germany by the end of 2021; Telefonica indicated that it expects to reach around 50% of the population by the end of 2022 and the whole country by 2025.a 37
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs)
As part of the same 1.5bn funding linked to network infrastructure, the NRRP includes resources to enhance future technologies in communications such as 5G, 6G and OpenRAN.
100%
100%
80%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
60%
40%
20%
17%
0%
4%
44% 33%
Germany
EU27
Target 2030
Source: DESI, Deloitte analysis. Dotted lines represent indicative projections based on linear regression
a) Some, if not all, of the 5G deployments that have been announced are understood to be based on non-standalone alone (NSA) architecture, which may not deliver the full extent of network performance and features (e.g. ultra low latency), required to enable the full extent of 5G use cases. 5G Standalone (SA) deployments are expected to deliver this but are likely to require significant additional investment.
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Member State Deepdives
Germany
Skills
Across a number of packages related to digital skills, a total of up to around 1.8bn has been linked to achieving the EU targets, however achieving targets will require a 10 percentage point increase in the proportion of people with basic digital skills and a significant increase in the number of ICT specialists.
Adult basic digital skills
Current trend Germany is significantly ahead of the EU27 average, with 70% of the adult population already having basic digital skills. Reaching the target will require an acceleration in the proportion of the population with basic digital skills over the next few years, to close the 10 percentage point gap to the target.
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs) Within Germany's plans, up to around 1.8bn of funding is linked to the development of digital skills including building an education platform to support development of digital skills (0.6bn), enhancing the digital skills of teachers (0.2bn) and supporting the development of digital skills at schools through the use of digital media (0.5bn).
ICT specialists
Current trend The number of ICT specialists increased by more than a third between 2015 and 2020, reaching 2.02 million by 2020. However, to meet the EU target, a further 1.7 million ICT specialists will be needed by 2030, which is likely to require significant funding and support to train or attract more specialists.
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs) The NRRP proposes investments linked to the training of ICT specialists with a total value of up to around 0.1bn, including supporting programmes for PhD students in data science and supporting the development of skills in science subjects.
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Individuals with at least basic digital skills (% of 16-74 population)
100%
80% 67%
60%
40%
54%
70% 58%
20%
0%
Gerrmany
EU27
Target 2030
Source: DESI, Deloitte analysis. Dotted lines represent indicative projections based on linear regression
50
Number of ICT specialists (millions)
4.0
3.72
80% 3.0
2.0 1.47
2.02
1.0
0.0
Germany
Target 2030*
Source: DESI, Deloitte analysis. Dotted lines represent indicative projections based on linear regression * The Member State share of the total EU ICT specialists target (20m) has been apportioned based on population share
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Member State Deepdives
Germany
Businesses
Germany's plans include up to around 2.9bn of funding linked to supporting the significant increase in SMEs digitalisation and cloud computing adoption that is required to reach the EU targets by 2030.
Digital intensity of SMEs
Businesses using Cloud computing
Current trend The proportion of SMEs with a basic level of digital intensity in Germany is above the EU27 average, but growth has been limited in recent years. If the historic trend over the last five years persists then the EU target may not be met, meaning funding and support may be required to reach the target.
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs) There is funding of up to around 2.1bn linked to the digitalisation of enterprises, through the creation of innovation clusters (0.2bn) and digitalisation of the automotive sector (1.9bn) including digitalisation of production processes and business models.
Current trend The level of cloud computing adoption by businesses in Germany is below the EU27 average, with 12% of businesses purchasing these services in 2020 compared to the EU27 average of 18%. Achieving the target by 2030 will require a significant acceleration in the rate of adoption over the period.
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs) The NRRP sets out up to around 0.8bn in funding linked to the development of cloud competences and cloud platforms through the IPCEI (Important Project of Common European Interest) next generation of cloud infrastructure and service package.
2015 22001615 2017 2018 2019 22002016 2021 2022 22002317 2024 2025 2026 2018 2027 2028 2029 22003019
2015 22001165 22001176 22001187 22001198 22002109 22002210 22002221 22002232 22002243 22002254 22002265 22002276 22002287 22002298 22003209 2030
SMEs with at least a basic level of digital intensity (%)
100%
10800%%
80% 60% 60% 40% 40% 20% 20%
00%%
64% 67%
57% 54%
70% 58%
90%
67% 80%
60%
GGeerrrmaany
Source: Eurostat (DII), Deloitte analysis.
51
EU2277
Tarrggeett2030
Businesses purchasing advanced cloud computing services (%)
100%100%
80%80%
67%
60%60%
40%40%
54%
20%20% 11% 0% 0%6%
70%
58% 18%
12%
75%80%
GeGrmerarnmyany
EUE2U72*7
Target 2030
Source: DESI, Deloitte analysis. Dotted lines represent indicative projections based on linear regression * Missing data for 2016 for EU
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Member State Deepdives
Germany
Public services
Germany appears on track to reach the online public services EU target, but has a wide gap to close on the e-medical records target; Up to around 4.3bn of funding is linked to public services, e-medical records and e-IDs.
Online public services
E-medical records and e-IDs
Current trend Germany is closely aligned to the EU27 average in terms of the proportion of administrative steps related to major life events that can be actioned online. Achieving the 2030 target appears feasible, though there may be broader unfulfilled potential for digitalisation of public services.
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs) The NRRP outlines investments of up to around 3.3bn linked to the digitalisation of public services through investments in the digitalisation of administrative processes (3bn), modernisation of the registration process (0.3bn) and digitalisation of the pension system (0.03bn).
Current trend Only 3% of individuals in Germany accessed personal health records online in 2020, compared to an EU27 average of 10%, indicating that further investments are needed to reach the target of 100% of citizens having access to e-medical records. 70% of the country sought health information online compared to an EU27 average of 56%, which may suggest a relatively high level of demand for online access to medical records and related information and services.38
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs) There is funding of up to around 0.8bn for the digitalisation and strengthening of the healthcare system covering a nationwide expansion of electronic reporting and a further 0.2bn of funding to support the development of a European identity system.
Administrative steps related to major life events that can be done online (%)
100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%
100%
678%0% 60%
544%0%
20%
0%
75% 75%
90% 90% 70% 58%
100% 80%
2015 2016 22001157 22001168 22001179 22001280 22001291 22002202 22002213 22002224 22002235 22002246 22002257 22002268 22002279 22002380 2029 2030
GerrmanGyermany
EU2E7U27
Targett 2030
Source: DESI, Deloitte analysis. Dotted lines represent indicative projections based on linear regression 52
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Member State Deepdives
Greece
Overview of the plans and progress against targets
Around 25% of Greece's total NRRP funding has been allocated to digital transformation, of which up to around 4.5bn is linked to Digital Decade targets. Achieving these will require significant improvements, especially in Infrastructure, Skills and Business areas.
Skills
Infrastructure
Progress against targets
Basic digital skills 51% Greece (2020) 58% EU (2020) 80% Target (2030)
Businesses
Basic digital intensity
32% Greece (2019) 60% EU (2019) 90% Target (2030)
Public services
53
VHCN household coverage
7% Greece (2020) 44% EU (2020) 100% Target (2030)
ICT specialists (million) 0.08 Greece (2020)
0.48 Target (2030)
Cloud adoption 7% Greece (2020) 18% EU (2020) 75% Target (2030)
Commentary and NRRP commitments
Greece lags significantly behind the EU27 average in terms of VHCN coverage, with 7% coverage in 2020. Based on the current level of coverage and trajectory, achieving the EU target by 2030 is likely to be challenging and require significant investment in network infrastructure.
Within Greece's plans, up to around 0.6bn in total has been linked to 5G and fibre rollout and network infrastructure.
The share of adults with basic digital skills has historically been below the EU27 average, however the gap has been closing in recent years. Whilst the number of ICT specialists has grown gradually in recent years, if Greece is to achieve the EU target, it will need a sixfold increase in the current number of specialists by 2030.
Across a range of packages related to digital skills, up to around 1.8bn in the NRRP has been linked to achieving the Skills targets.
Both the digital intensity of SMEs and cloud adoption by enterprises is significantly lower in Greece compared to the EU27 average. The digital intensity of SMEs appears to have fallen in recent years, further widening the gap with the rest of the EU27.
Within the plans there is up to around 0.5bn linked to supporting the digital transformation of SMEs, while funding does not appear to be explicitly linked to achieving cloud adoption targets.
Online services completion
84% Greece (2020) 90% EU (2020) 100% Target (2030)
Greece lags behind the EU27 average in terms of online service completion, however it has managed to reduce the gap in recent years.
There is up to around 0.8bn in funding linked to the online provision of public services target with a further up to 0.9bn for e-medical records and up to 0.04bn for e-IDs.
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Member State Deepdives
Greece
Infrastructure
Up to around 0.6bn of funding in total is linked to supporting the rollout of very high capacity networks (fibre and 5G), however VHCN coverage in Greece is one of the lowest in the EU and achieving the target will require a significant increase in the rate of network rollout and the investment to support it.
54
Gigabit connectivity
5G coverage in populated areas
Current trend Greece currently lags significantly behind the EU27 average for VHCN coverage, with 7% of households covered in 2020, compared to the EU27 average of 44%. Based on its current position, achieving the target of 100% coverage by 2030 is likely to be very challenging and require significant levels of investment in network infrastructure over the coming years.
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs) Within Greece's plans, up to around 0.3bn of funding is linked to supporting the development of new industrial parks (0.1bn), fibre optic infrastructure in buildings (0.1bn) and submarine fibre cables (0.03bn).
Current trend 4G population coverage in Greece had reached 97% by the end of 2020.39 As of January 2021, three mobile operators had announced that they had switched on their 5G networks; Wind Hellas is understood to cover the two largest cities of Athens and Thessaloniki and aims to exceed 60% of population coverage within three years, Cosmote expanded coverage to 90% of the population of the two largest cities in March 2021 and Vodafone Greece aims to cover 40% of the population of the same two cities by March 2022.a 40
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs) There is funding of up to around 0.3bn linked to 5G deployment in the NRRP, with investments such as 5G wireless network infrastructure development on Greek highways that are part of the Trans-European Transport Networks (0.2bn) and 5G infrastructure along routes of natural and cultural interest to tourists (0.03bn).
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
VHCN (% of households covered)
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
44%
0.2
17%
0
7%
Greece**
EU27
Target 2030
Source: DESI, Deloitte analysis. Dotted lines represent indicative projections based on linear regression ** Missing data for Greece prior to 2020
100%
a) Some, if not all, of the 5G deployments that have been announced are understood to be based on non-standalone alone (NSA) architecture, which may not deliver the full extent of network performance and features (e.g. ultra low latency), required to enable the full extent of 5G use cases. 5G Standalone (SA) deployments are expected to deliver this but are likely to require significant additional investment.
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Member State Deepdives
Greece
Skills
Adult basic digital skills
ICT specialists
Across a number of packages related to digital skills, a total of up to around 1.8bn has been linked to achieving the EU targets; however achieving targets will require a 29 percentage point increase in the proportion of people with basic digital skills and a more than fivefold increase in the number of ICT specialists.
Current trend
Greece has historically been below the EU27 average in terms of the proportion of adults with basic digital skills, but has started to reduce the gap in recent years with 51% of the population equipped with at least basic digital skills, compared to the EU27 average of 58%. In order to achieve the target, Greece will need to increase the proportion of people with basic digital skills by 29 percentage points by 2030.
Current trend
Whilst the number of ICT specialists in Greece has increased by 20,000 (c. 30%) in the last five years to around 80,000 in 2020, it remains well below the implied Digital Decade target of around 480,000. If Greece is to achieve the target it will need to train or attract 400,000 additional ICT specialists, nearly six times the current number of ICT specialists in the country.
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs)
Greece has committed up to around 1.7bn of funding to support the development of digital skills such as a new strategy for lifelong skills, including digital skills (1bn), digital transformation of education (0.4bn) and digital training of elderly and vulnerable people. (0.2bn).
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs)
There is up to around 0.1bn of funding linked to providing basic and applied research aid for the establishment of a Research and Innovation Institute focussed on AI, data processing and algorithm development and participation in digital technologies and Euro-HPC (High Performance Computing).
Individuals with at least basic digital skills
(% of 16-74 population)
Number of ICT specialists (millions)
100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%
54% 44%
58% 51%
0.5
0.48
80%
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.06
0.08
0.0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Greece
EU27
Target 2030
Source: DESI, Deloitte analysis. Dotted lines represent indicative projections based on linear regression
55
Greece
Target 2030*
Source: DESI, Deloitte analysis. Dotted lines represent indicative projections based on linear regression * The Member State share of the total EU ICT specialists target (20m) has been apportioned based on population share
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Member State Deepdives
Greece
Businesses
Within the plans there is up to around 0.5bn linked to supporting the digital transformation of SMEs, but Greece has one of the lowest levels of SME digitalisation and cloud adoption in the EU and will need to make significant improvements to achieve the targets by 2030.
Digital intensity of SMEs
Businesses using Cloud computing
Current trend The share of SMEs with at least a basic digital intensity in Greece appears to have declined sharply from 46% in 2015 to 32% in 2019, further widening the gap with the EU27 average. Greece will need to reverse this trend and make significant strides improving SME's digital adoption if it is to achieve the EU target by 2030.
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs) Within the plans there is up to around 0.5bn linked to the SME digitalisation target, which includes investments towards the digital transformation of SMEs (0.4bn), acceleration of smart manufacturing (0.1bn) and digital transformation of the agri-food sector (0.05bn).
Current trend Adoption of relatively advanced cloud services among Greek businesses is below the EU27 average (7% vs 18%) and has increased by 2 percentage points since 2015, meaning the gap has widened further in recent years. Achieving the target will require a significant acceleration in the rate of cloud service adoption (compared to the historic trend).
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs) The NRRP does not make explicit commitments towards the adoption of cloud computing services, however, cloud computing could form part of the broader SME digitalisation commitments.
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
SMEs with at least a basic level of digital intensity (%)
100%
80%
60%
57%
40%
46%
20%
0%
Greece
Source: Eurostat (DII), Deloitte analysis. 56
EU27
Target 2030
90% 60%
32%
Businesses purchasing advanced cloud computing services (%)
100%
80%
75%
60%
40% 20% 11%
0% 5%
18% 7%
Greece
EU27 *
Target 2030
Source: DESI, Deloitte analysis. Dotted lines represent indicative projections based on linear regression * Missing data for 2016 for EU
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Member State Deepdives
Greece
Public services
Up to around 0.8bn of the NRRP funds in Greece have been linked to the digitalisation of public services, with a further 0.9bn to e-medical records and e-IDs. Despite being below the EU27 average, Greece appears on track to meet the 2030 target for online public services provided it can maintain the growth in online usage.
Online public services
Current trend General use of online services in Greece has increased significantly from 48% in 2015 to 84% in 2020, almost closing the gap with the EU27. The current trend leaves Greece 16 percentage points away from the target, and if historic growth continues, then it will potentially be on track to meet the target before 2030.
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs) As part of the up to around 0.8bn funding for the provision of key public services, the NRRP outlines investments for the digital transformation of the tax and customs administration (0.2bn), digital transformation of justice (0.1bn) and web services development (0.1bn).
Administrative steps related to major life events that can be done online (%)
100% 80% 75%
60%
84% 90%
100%
40% 48%
20%
0%
E-medical records and e-IDs
Current trend Greece lags behind the EU27 average, with 6% of individuals having accessed personal health records online in 2020, compared to an EU27 average of 10%. It also lags behind the EU27 on related measures, such as seeking health information online (52% vs 56% EU27 average) and making appointments online (8% vs 21% EU27 average).41 Achieving the target of 100% of citizens having access to e-medical records will require significant investments over the next years.
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs) Greece has linked up to around 0.9bn of funding to the e-medical record targets including commitments to digitalise archives and related services (0.6bn) and the digital transformation of health (0.3bn). The NRRP further proposes 0.04bn of funding for the digital transformation of the immigration and asylum system which may contribute to the development of e-IDs.
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Greece
EU27
Target 2030
Source: DESI, Deloitte analysis. Dotted lines represent indicative projections based on linear regression
57
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Member State Deepdives
Hungary
Overview of the plans and progress against targets
Around 23% of Hungary's total NRRP funding has been allocated to digital transformation. Of this amount up to around 1.4bn is linked to Digital Decade targets. Achieving these will require a significant improvement, in particular across Infrastructure, Skills and Businesses.a
Skills
Infrastructure
Progress against targets
Basic digital skills 49% Hungary (2020) 58% EU (2020) 80% Target (2030)
Businesses
Basic digital intensity
42% Hungary (2019) 60% EU (2019) 90% Target (2030)
Public services
a) Estimate derived by converting local currency to Euros using exchange rate of 353.65 HUF /Euro as at 01/06/21.
58
VHCN household coverage
43% Hungary (2020) 44% EU (2020) 100% Target (2030)
Commentary and NRRP commitments
Hungary tracks the EU27 average in terms of VHCN coverage, with 43% household coverage in 2020 (57 percentage points below the target), while 5G deployments are in the early stages. Achieving both targets will likely require significant network investment over the coming years.
The NRRP does not appear to make explicit spending commitments to support 5G or VHCN deployment but there is funding with its NBP.
ICT specialists (million) 0.17 Hungary (2020)
0.44 Target (2030)
Digital literacy has historically been lower compared to the EU27 average, with the gap widening in recent years. The number of ICT specialists increased by 20,000 across 20152020, however the number of ICT specialists will need to more than double to meet the EU target by 2030.
The NRRP proposes up to around 1.3bn of funding linked to the development of digital skills, but with no explicit mention of ICT specialists.
Cloud adoption
11% Hungary (2020) 18% EU (2020) 75% Target (2030)
Digital intensity across businesses is lower compared to the EU, with the gap widening in recent years. Adoption of cloud computing services is increasing gradually, however significant improvements are required to meet the EU target.
Funding of up to around 5 million in the NRRP is linked to the digitalisation of enterprises, with no explicit reference to cloud computing.
Online services completion
87% Hungary (2020) 90% EU (2020) 100% Target (2030)
Hungary has historically had relatively low levels of online service completion but this has increased significantly from 45% in 2015 to 87% in 2020, suggesting that it is on course to meet the EU target.
The NRRP has linked up to around 0.1bn to the digitalisation of public services.
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Member State Deepdives
Hungary
Infrastructure
Hungary's VHCN coverage has been increasing in recent years and 5G has been launched commercially, but achieving the EU targets will require significant investment. The NRRP does not appear to explicitly link funding to reaching either target.
59
Gigabit connectivity
5G coverage in populated areas
Current trend VHCN coverage has increased steadily in Hungary and is now at 43%, very close to the EU27 average. Achieving 100% coverage by 2030 may still require incremental steps, particularly to support deployment in areas where the commercial incentives are weakest.
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs) The NRRP does not make any explicit funding commitments towards the deployment of VHCNs in Hungary. There is however around 250 million of funding to support network infrastructure build within Hungary's national broadband plans.42
Current trend Hungary has already assigned 61% of harmonized 5G spectrum by the end of 2020, which is among the highest in the EU.43 4G population coverage in Hungary had reached 97% by the end of 2020.44 In terms of 5G coverage, the first commercial deployments are understood to have taken place in 2019 and MNOs have indicated that there is 5G coverage in some cities. For example, Vodafone announcing in March 2021 that its 5G network was available `in most of Budapest' and Magyar Telekom reaching parts of 18 cities and towns.a 45
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs) The NRRP makes brief reference to 5G based solutions as part of wider investment packages, however there is no specific funding commitments towards 5G deployment.
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
VHCN (% of households covered)
100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%
17% 21%
44% 43%
Hun gary
EU27
Target 2030
Source: DESI, Deloitte analysis. Dotted lines represent indicative projections based on linear regression
100%
a) Some, if not all, of the 5G deployments that have been announced are understood to be based on non-standalone alone (NSA) architecture, which may not deliver the full extent of network performance and features (e.g. ultra low latency), required to enable the full extent of 5G use cases. 5G Standalone (SA) deployments are expected to deliver this but are likely to require significant additional investment.
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Member State Deepdives
Hungary
Skills
Up to around 1.3bn has been linked to helping achieve the skills targets, however achieving the targets will require a significant increase in the number of ICT specialists and people with basic digital skills.
Adult basic digital skills
ICT specialists
Current trend Around half of adults have at least basic digital skills. This is below the EU27 average and has not increased since 2015. This trend suggests that policy measures that support digital skills development may be required if Hungary is to reach the EU target.
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs) There is up to around 1.3bn of funding within the NRRP that is linked to supporting the development of digital skills, with a strong focus on digital skills for students. Part of the funding includes investments to integrate digital educational solutions into everyday educational practice and to support the development of vocational digital curriculum.
Current trend The number of ICT specialists has been broadly stable over the last five years and in 2020 was around 40% of the EU target level (for 2030). To achieve the EU target Hungary will need to more than double the number of ICT specialists by 2030 which will likely require significant investment in education and training.
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs) The NRRP does not appear to commit funds to the training of ICT specialists, however wider investment packages supporting the development of digital skills may help support Hungary's progression towards the target.
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Individuals with at least basic digital skills (% of 16-74 population)
100%
80%
60% 54%
58%
40% 50%
49%
20%
0%
Hun gary
EU27
Target 2030
Source: DESI, Deloitte analysis. Dotted lines represent indicative projections based on linear regression
60
Number of ICT specialists (millions)
0.5
80%
0.4
0.44
0.3
0.2 0.15
0.17
0.1
0.0
Hun gary
Target 2030 *
Source: DESI, Deloitte analysis. Dotted lines represent indicative projections based on linear regression * The Member State share of the total EU ICT specialists target (20m) has been apportioned based on population share
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Member State Deepdives
Hungary
Businesses
A significant increase in levels of digital intensity and adoption of cloud computing services is required to meet the EU targets. Around 5 million of funding appears to be linked to promoting the digitalisation of SMEs with nothing explicitly linked to supporting adoption of cloud services.
Digital intensity of SMEs
Current trend Digital intensity among SMEs is relatively low compared to the EU27 average, with 42% reaching at least a basic level in 2019. Achieving the target will require a significant increase in SME digitalisation (around a 48 percentage point increase compared to 2020) in the coming years.
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs) Within Hungary's plans, up to around 5 million of funding is linked to strengthening the digital intensity of SMEs by providing aid and training for the acquisition of intangible assets such as software rights and IT solutions, and enabling SME participation in business and public procurements.
Businesses using Cloud computing
Current trend In Hungary 11% of businesses were reported to have purchased cloud services in 2020, below the EU27 average of 18%. Achieving the EU target will require a significant increase (of around 64 percentage points) in levels of adoption, highlighting the potential need for measures to support cloud adoption.
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs) The NRRP does not appear to propose funding commitments linked to the adoption of cloud computing, however this might be covered indirectly through broader funding outside of the NRRP.
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
SMEs with at least a basic level of digital intensity (%)
100%
80%
60%
57%
40%
45%
20%
0%
90% 60%
42%
Hun gary
Source: Eurostat (DII), Deloitte analysis.
61
EU27
Target 2030
Businesses purchasing advanced cloud computing services (%)
100%
80%
75%
60%
40%
20% 11%
18%
0% 5%
11%
Hun gary
EU27*
Target 2030
Source: DESI, Deloitte analysis. Dotted lines represent indicative projections based on linear regression *Missing data for 2016 for EU
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Member State Deepdives
Hungary
Online public services
Public services
Hungary appears on track to meet the 2030 target for online public services provided it can maintain the growth in online usage; Up to around 0.1bn of the NRRP funds in Hungary have been linked to the digitalisation of public services.
Current trend General use of online services in Hungary has increased significantly from 45% in 2015 to 87% in 2020, almost closing the gap with the EU27 average. The current trend leaves Hungary 13 percentage points away from the target, and if historic growth continues, it will potentially be on track to meeting the target before 2030.
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs) There is funding of up to around 0.1bn linked to the use of online public services, including the extension of automatic administrative decision making system and the development of a national IT asset management to increase the efficiency of public services.
Administrative steps related to major life events that can be done online (%)
100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%
75% 45%
90% 87%
100%
E-medical records and e-IDs
Current trend Around 17% of individuals in Hungary were reported to have accessed personal health records online in 2020, compared to an EU27 average of 10%.46 Achieving the target of e-medical records for the entire population is likely to require significant further investment to support the transition over the coming years.
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs) The NRRP outlines funding committed to the digitalisation of health care, however there is no reference to e-medical records or digitalisation of related databases. However, the transition to digital e-medical records and e-IDs may still be supported through the broader digitalisation plans without specific spending commitments linked to these targets.
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Hun gary
EU27
Target 2030
Source: DESI, Deloitte analysis. Dotted lines represent indicative projections based on linear regression
62
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Member State Deepdives
Italy
Overview of the plans and progress against targets
Around 27% of Italy's total NRRP funding has been allocated to digital transformation. Of this amount up to around 43.3bn appears to be linked to Digital Decade targets across the four areas. Achieving the targets will require a significant improvement, in particular across Infrastructure, Skills and Business areas.
Skills
Infrastructure
Progress against targets
Basic digital skills 42% Italy (2020) 58% EU (2020) 80% Target (2030)
Businesses
Basic digital intensity
58% Italy (2019) 60% EU (2019) 90% Target (2030)
Public services
63
VHCN household coverage
30% Italy (2020) 44% EU (2020) 100% Target (2030)
ICT specialists (million) 0.83 Italy (2020)
2.67 Target (2030)
Commentary and NRRP commitments
Italy currently lags significantly behind the EU27 average for VHCN coverage, and the gap has widened in recent years. Up to around 6.7bn of funding has been linked to support VHCNs, based on a technology-neutral approach. The NRRP includes an ambition to meet the Digital Divide target by 2026.
Achieving this ambition will require a significant increase in the historic rate of network updates, and the associated investment required to deliver this.
Italy has relatively low levels of digital literacy compared to the EU27 average, while its number of ICT specialists is below the implied Digital Decade target level for the country. Digital literacy rates have increased gradually in recent years but would need to be nearly doubled if the target is to be met.
Across a number of packages related to digital skills, a total of up to around 14.6bn in the NRRP has been linked to achieving the Skills targets.
Cloud adoption
15% Italy (2020) 18% EU (2020) 75% Target (2030)
Digital intensity across businesses has improved in recent years, closing the gap to the EU27 average. However, adoption of relatively sophisticated cloud services remains low at 15%, below the EU27 average and 60 percentage points below the 2030 target.
Italy has designated up to around 14.7bn of funding to promoting the digitalisation of businesses, consisting of both investments and tax credits.
Online services completion
92% Italy (2020) 90% EU (2020) 100% Target (2030)
General use of online services in Italy is broadly in line with the EU27 average.
Up to around 3.8bn has been allocated to digitalisation of public services, and a further up to around 1.4bn to e-medical records. The plan also sets an aim to reinforce the digital identity regime as part of a wider 2bn package for digital services and citizenship. In total this amounts to up to around 7.2bn.
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Member State Deepdives
Italy
Infrastructure
Up to around 6.7bn of funding is linked to supporting the rollout of very high capacity network and 5G networks together, however achieving the target will require a significant increase in the rate of network rollout.
64
Gigabit connectivity
5G coverage in populated areas
Current trend Italy lags significantly behind the EU27 average for VHCN coverage, with the gap widening in recent years (30% compared to the 44% EU27 average). If the rate of VHCN deployment were to continue on the current trajectory, Italy would remain significantly below the target by 2030. Achieving the target will therefore require a significant acceleration.
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs) Italy has set an ambition to meet the Digital Divide target ahead of schedule, with gigabit connections across the entire country by 2026. There is up to around 6.7bn of funding within the NRRP linked to VHCNs including resources to bring gigabit connectivity to 8.5 million families and businesses (as well as to accelerate 5G deployment).
VHCN (% of households covered)*
100%
Current trend Italy has taken significant steps towards enabling 5G, having awarded 60% of harmonised 5G spectrum as at the end of 2020.47 4G population coverage in Italy reached 97% by the end of 2020.48 The first commercial 5G deployments is understood to have taken place in 2019 and all four operators are reported to have switched on 5G in some areas by the end of 2020, with plans to extend coverage. For example, Telecom Italia is reported to be planning to cover 120 cities by the end of 2021, while Wind Tre reported that its 5G network has achieved 74% population coverage. b 49
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs) As part of the same 6.7bn funding linked to network infrastructure, the NRRP includes resources to incentivise development of 5G infrastructure in areas where there may not be a commercial incentive to deploy 5G. This includes targeting 5G coverage across more than 2,000 km of key transport corridors and 10,000 km of roads.
100%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
80%
60%
40%
20%
17%
0% 15%
44% 30%
It al y
EU27
Target 2030
Source: DESI, Deloitte analysis. Dotted lines represent indicative projections based on linear regression
a) VHCN coverage post-2020 is a projection based the assumption that network deployment rates continue at the historic average deployment rate (linear growth assumed). This does not take account of other factors that may affect the rate and profile of network deployment over time;
b) Some, if not all, of the 5G deployments that have been announced are understood to be based on non-standalone alone (NSA) architecture, which may not deliver the full extent of network performance and features (e.g. ultra low latency), required to enable the full extent of 5G use cases. 5G Standalone (SA) deployments are expected to deliver this but are likely to require significant additional investment.
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Member State Deepdives
Italy
Skills
Adult basic digital skills
ICT specialists
Across a number of packages related to digital skills, a total of up to around 14.6bn has been linked to improving digital skills, however achieving targets will require almost a doubling of the number of people with basic digital skills and nearly three times the number of ICT specialists.
Current trend Italy has historically been below the EU27 average, with a majority of the population currently not having basic digital skills. This may reflect, among other things, the fact that Italy's population has the highest median age across the EU2750. Achieving the target will require almost a doubling in the proportion of people with basic digital skills by 2030 and a significant increase in the current rate at which these skills are obtained.
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs) There is up to around 13.6bn of funding linked to digital skills which includes ITS courses for all students ( 1.5bn), development of digital skills at schools ( 1.1bn), active labour policies and training for vulnerable groups ( 4.4bn) and connected learning environments in schools (2.1bn).
Current trend The number of ICT specialists in Italy has increased by around 100,000 (14%) since 2015, but it remains well below the implied Digital Decade target of c.2.7 million. Achieving the target will require around 1.8 million additional ICT specialists to be trained, nearly twice the current number of ICT specialists in the country.
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs) Up to around 1bn of investment within the NRRP includes funding to enhance high-profile competencies for key enabling technologies (0.6bn) and increase doctorates by 3000 in STEM subjects (0.4bn).
Individuals with at least basic digital skills
Number of ICT specialists (millions)
(% of 16-74 population)*
100% 80%
3.0
80%
2.5
2.67
60% 54%
40%
43%
20%
58% 42%
2.0
1.5
1.0 0.73
0.83
0.5
0%
0.0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Italy *
EU27
Target 2030
Source: DESI, Deloitte analysis. Dotted lines represent indicative projections based on linear regression
* Missing data for year for 2018 2019 for Italy. Individuals with at least basic digital skills post-2020 is a
projection based the assumption that digital skills adoption continue at the historic average rate (linear growth).
65
This does not take account of other factors that may affect the rate and profile of over time.
It al y
Target 2030**
Source: DESI, Deloitte analysis. Dotted lines represent indicative projections based on linear regression ** The Member State share of the total EU ICT specialists target (20m) has been apportioned based on population share
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Member State Deepdives
Italy
Businesses
Italy has linked up to around 14.7bn of funding to promoting the digitalisation of businesses, the highest funding linked to the business targets across the 20 countries. However, a significant increase in levels of digital intensity and adoption of cloud computing services is required to meet targets.
Digital intensity of SMEs
Businesses using Cloud computing
Current trend Italy has historically been below the EU27 average, however it has managed to significantly reduce the gap in recent years. Yet to achieve the EU target, the share of SMEs with at least a basic level of digital intensity has to increase by 32 percentage points.
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs) Italy's plans contain up to around 14.6bn linked to supporting digitalisation of businesses (including SMEs), which consists of tax breaks to encourage investment in digital assets (13.4bn), as well as commitments to supply advanced technological and innovative services to companies (0.4bn) and digital systems that will support digitalisation in the logistics and transport sectors (0.3bn).
Current trend Adoption of relatively advanced cloud services among Italian businesses is marginally below the EU27 average and has increased by 3 percentage points since 2017.
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs) The plan contains funding of up to around 0.1bn linked to cloud computing and related services includes the development of cloud infrastructure for airport systems.
SMEs with at least a basic level of digital intensity (%)
100%
80% 57%
60%
40%
49%
20%
0%
90% 60% 58%
Businesses purchasing advanced cloud computing services (%)
1
0.8
75%
0.6
0.4
0.2 11%
18%
0
15%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
It al y
Source: Eurostat (DII), Deloitte analysis. 66
EU27
Target 2030
It al y *
EU27 *
Target 2030
Source: DESI, Deloitte analysis. Dotted lines represent indicative projections based on linear regression * Missing data for years 2016 and 2018 for Italy and for 2016 for EU
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Member State Deepdives
Italy
Public services
Up to around 3.8bn of the NRRP funds in Italy have been linked to the digitalisation of public services, with a further up to around 1.4bn to e-medical records and up to around 2bn to e-IDs. Italy appears on track to meet the 2030 target for online public services provided it can maintain the growth in online usage.
Online public services
Current trend General use of online services in Italy is broadly in line with the EU27 average over time. The consistent upward trend of public services provided online suggests that Italy is on track to achieving the EU 2030 target.
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs) Up to around 3.8bn of the NRRP funds in Italy have been linked to the digitalisation of public services. Key components of the 3.8bn include digitalisation of large central administrations (0.6bn), migration of public administration to cloud (0.9bn), development of a national data platform (0.7bn) and electronic equipment and applications used for the provision of critical services (0.7bn).
Administrative steps related to major life events that can be done online (%)
E-medical records and e-IDs
Current trend Italy lags behind the EU27 average, with 8% of individuals having access to personal health records online in 2020, compared to an EU27 average of 10%. It also lags behind the EU27 on related measures, such as seeking health information online (46% vs 56% EU27 average) and making appointments online (12% vs 21% EU27 average).51 The current trend suggests that significant improvements are required to achieve the target and enable the provision of e-records for the entire population.
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs) The plan includes up to around 1.4bn linked to digitalisation of health records. The plan sets an aim to reinforce the digital identity regime, building on existing systems but converging towards an integrated solution for users. This is one of the elements of a wider up to around 2bn package for digital services and digital citizenship.
100% 80% 60%
75% 78%
40%
20%
0%
92% 90%
100%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
It al y
EU27
Target 2030
Source: DESI, Deloitte analysis. Dotted lines represent indicative projections based on linear regression 67
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Member State Deepdives
Poland
Overview of the plans and progress against targets
Around 22% of Poland's total NRRP funding has been allocated to digital transformation. Of this amount up to around 7.5bn is linked to Digital Decade targets. Achieving these will require improvement in all areas, in particular Infrastructure, Skills and Businesses.
Skills
Infrastructure
Progress against targets
Basic digital skills 44% Poland (2020) 58% EU (2020) 80% Target (2030)
Businesses
Basic digital intensity
38% Poland (2019) 60% EU (2019) 90% Target (2030)
Public services
68
VHCN household coverage
60% Poland (2020) 44% EU (2020) 100% Target (2030)
ICT specialists (million) 0.55 Poland (2020)
1.70 Target (2030)
Commentary and NRRP commitments
Poland's VHCN coverage is significantly above the EU27 average, with 60% of households covered in 2020. If coverage continues to be extended at the current rate, Poland would be on track to achieve the 2030 target, however extending coverage to more remote areas may prove more challenging.
There appears to be up to around 2.6bn funding linked to the digital decade targets to support the development of 5G and gigabit connectivity.
Poland has relatively low levels of digital literacy compared to the EU27 average (44% vs 58%). Digital literacy rates remain around 36 percentage points below the EU target.
Poland needs to increase the number of ICT specialists threefold by 2030 if it is to achieve the EU target.There is up to around 1.9bn linked to enhancing the digital skills of the population to achieve the target, but no explicit reference to ICT specialists.
Cloud adoption
7% Poland (2020) 18% EU (2020) 75% Target (2030)
Digital intensity across businesses is lower compared to the EU27 average, with the gap widening in recent years. The share of enterprises using cloud computing is following an upward trend, but remains far behind the EU target (7% vs 75%).
Poland has linked up to around 1.6bn of funding to supporting SME digitalisation and the adoption of cloud computing services.
Online services completion
87% Poland (2020) 90% EU (2020) 100% Target (2030)
General use of online services in Poland is broadly in line with the EU27 average, with 87% online service completion in 2020.
Up to around 0.4bn of funding has been linked to the digitalisation of public services, with a further up to around 1bn to supporting the development of e-medical records.
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Member State Deepdives
Poland
Infrastructure
Poland is progressing well towards the VHCN coverage target, with around 60% of households covered in 2020, and there is up to around 2.6bn linked to supporting further rollout of VHCNs and 5G infrastructure.
69
Gigabit connectivity
5G coverage in populated areas
Current trend
Poland's VHCN coverage has increased significantly in recent years from 7% in 2015 to 60% in 2020, and is now above the EU27 average. Based on this trend, Poland appears on track to achieving the target before 2030. However deploying networks to the remaining households can still pose significant commercial and operational challenges, in particular rolling out to rural areas, which may slow down the rate of network deployment.
Current trend
4G population coverage in Poland had reached 99% by the end of 2020.52 MNOs reported launching 5G services in some areas over the course of 2020.a 53
According to the `5G Strategy Poland', 700 MHz spectrum will be deployed to provide 5G coverage in transport paths in Poland by 2025. Other spectrum bands identified for 5G are due to be awarded in 2021. The 5G strategy for Poland will be funded by public and community funds until 2023.54
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs)
There is up to around 1.2bn worth of funding within the NRRP that is linked to providing access to very fast internet in the areas of white spots (digitally excluded areas with no or inadequate coverage).
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs)
The NRRP outlines a set of reforms and investments to support the deployment of 5G including proposed reforms to increase the availability of wired and wireless connectivity and potential investments of up to around 1.4bn for the deployment of 5G networks.
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
VHCN (% of households covered)
100%
80%
60%
60%
40%
20%
17%
44%
0%
7%
Pol and
EU27
Target 2030
Source: DESI, Deloitte analysis. Dotted lines represent indicative projections based on linear regression
100%
a) Some, if not all, of the 5G deployments that have been announced are understood to be based on non-standalone alone (NSA) architecture, which may not deliver the full extent of network performance and features (e.g. ultra low latency), required to enable the full extent of 5G use cases. 5G Standalone (SA) deployments are expected to deliver this but are likely to require significant additional investment.
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Member State Deepdives
Poland
Skills
Adult basic digital skills
ICT specialists
Up to around 1.9bn has been linked to helping achieve the digital skills target, however the plan does not make explicit commitments to supporting the training of ICT specialists. Achieving both targets is going to require a significant increase in the number of ICT specialists and people with basic digital skills.
Current trend The proportion of adults with basic digital skills in Poland has increased gradually over the last five years from 40% in 2015 to 44% in 2020, but has remained well below the EU27 average of 58% in 2020. Achieving the EU target by 2030 will require more than an additional third of the population to become equipped with basic digital skills by 2030.
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs) Key components of the up to around 1.9bn funding towards digital skills include support for the development of modern vocational education and transfer of new technologies (0.4bn), e-competence to raise the level of digital competencies (0.2bn) and the use of IT solutions at a greater intensity to allow students to develop digital skills (0.6bn).
Current trend The number of ICT specialists has been increasing gradually in Poland in the last five years from 0.42 million in 2015 to 0.55 million in 2020. Poland remains well below the implied Digital Decade target of around 1.7 million and will need to attract and/ or train an additional 1.15 million ICT specialists in the country by 2030 if it is to achieve the EU target.
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs) The NRRP does not make explicit commitments to support the training of ICT specialists, however there is potential for some of the investment in digital skills development to contribute to progressing towards the target.
Individuals with at least basic digital skills
Number of ICT specialists (millions)
(% of 16-74 population)
100%
80%
2.0
1.70
80%
1.5
60% 54%
58%
40%
40%
44%
20%
1.0
0.5 0.42
0.55
0%
0.0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Pol and
EU27
Target 2030
Source: DESI, Deloitte analysis. Dotted lines represent indicative projections based on linear regression
70
Pol and
Target 2030 *
Source: DESI, Deloitte analysis. Dotted lines represent indicative projections based on linear regression * The Member State share of the total EU ICT specialists target (20m) has been apportioned based on population share
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Member State Deepdives
Poland
Businesses
Poland appears to have designated up to around 1.6bn of funding to promoting the digitalisation of businesses, but a significant increase in levels of digital intensity and adoption of cloud computing services is required to meet targets.
Digital intensity of SMEs
Businesses using Cloud computing
Current trend The share of SMEs with at least a basic digital intensity in Poland has declined from 44% in 2015 to 38% in 2019, widening the gap with the EU27 average. Poland will need to reverse the trend and ensure that a further 52% of SMEs digitise to at least a basic level by 2030 if it is to achieve the EU target.
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs) Key elements of the up to around 1.2bn worth of funding linked to promoting digitalisation of businesses include strengthening the digital intensity of SMEs, for example through investments for enterprises to adopt technical and digital solutions (0.5bn) and ensure closer cooperation between R&D institutes with the enterprise sector (0.5bn).
Current trend Adoption of cloud computing services by businesses in Poland has been lower than the EU27 average over the last five years, with 7% of enterprises using cloud computing services, compared to the EU27 average of 18%. Achieving the EU target by 2030 will require an increase of 68 percentage points in the share of enterprises adopting cloud computing.
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs) The NRRP includes investment of up to around 0.5bn to ensure the appropriate level of digitalisation and robotisation including cloud and AI, which is complemented by tax credits to support the purchase of cloud solutions.
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
SMEs with at least a basic level of digital intensity (%)
100%
80%
60%
57%
40% 44%
20%
0%
90% 60%
38%
Pol and
Source: Eurostat (DII), Deloitte analysis.
71
EU27
Target 2030
Businesses purchasing advanced cloud computing services (%)
100%
80%
75%
60%
40%
20% 11%
0%
4%
18% 7%
Pol and
EU27*
Target 2030
Source: DESI, Deloitte analysis. Dotted lines represent indicative projections based on linear regression * Missing data for 2016 for EU
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Member State Deepdives
Poland
Online public services
E-medical records and e-IDs
Public services
Up to around 0.4bn of Poland's NRRP funds have been linked to the digitalisation of public services, with a further 1bn linked to the development of e-medical records.
Current trend Poland has broadly tracked the EU27 average with 87% online service completion in 2020, compared to 90% in the EU27. The consistent upward trend of public services provided online suggests that Poland is on track to achieving the EU 2030 target.
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs) Up to around 0.4bn of funding is linked to the digital transformation of public services including the adoption of IT solutions, development of e-services and disruptive technologies in the public sector.
Administrative steps related to major life events that can be done online (%)
Current trend According to the NRRP the current level of e-medical records lies at 10%, 90 percentage points below the EU target. Poland lags behind the EU27 average, with 6% of individuals having accessed personal health records online in 2020, compared to an EU27 average of 10%. It also lags the EU27 on related measures, such as seeking health information online (43% vs 56% EU27 average) and making appointments online (11% vs 21% EU27 average).55
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs) Poland has committed up to around 1bn to the development of e-medical records as part of the digital transformation of health care and has set a target for medical records to reach 60% within 5 years of plan implementation. The NRRP does not appear to propose specific investments for the development of e-IDs, however this is likely to be covered as part of the digital transformation of public services.
100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%
78% 75%
90% 87%
100%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Pol and
EU27
Target 2030
Source: DESI, Deloitte analysis. Dotted lines represent indicative projections based on linear regression 72
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Member State Deepdives
Portugal
Overview of the plans and progress against targets
Around 20% of Portugal's total NRRP funding has been allocated to digital transformation. Of this amount up to around 4bn appears to be linked to Digital Decade targets across the four areas, and whilst it is progressing well against some Infrastructure and Public Service targets there is improvement required in particular in the Skills and Business areas.
Businesses
Skills
Infrastructure
Progress against targets
Basic digital skills 52% Portugal (2020) 58% EU (2020) 80% Target (2030)
Basic digital intensity 59% Portugal (2019) 60% EU (2019) 90% Target (2030)
Public services
73
VHCN household coverage
83% Portugal (2020) 44% EU (2020) 100% Target (2030)
ICT specialists (million) 0.19 Portugal (2020)
0.46 Target (2030)
Cloud adoption 16% Portugal (2020) 18% EU (2020) 75% Target (2030)
Commentary and NRRP commitments
Portugal is well above the EU27 average in terms of VHCN coverage, with 83% of households covered in 2020, compared to the EU27 average of 44%. However, 5G services are still to be launched. Whilst there appears to be no dedicated funding for network infrastructure, there is up to around 78 million of funding partially linked to improving high-speed broadband network capacity in the Madeira region, and a portion of 110 million linked to supporting 5G coverage in business areas i.e. not wide scale national 5G coverage.
The share of adults with basic digital skills in Portugal has been below the EU27 average over the last five years, and was 6 percentage points below the EU27 average in 2020. Whilst the number of ICT specialists has grown in recent years, the number would need to be more than doubled by 2030 to reach the EU target.
The NRRP sets out funding of up to around 1.8bn to support the development of basic digital skills, without explicit commitment linked to ICT specialists.
Digital intensity across businesses and cloud computing uptake broadly tracks the EU27 average, however reaching the EU target by 2030 with require a significant increase in levels of adoption over the coming years, and the corresponding support required.
Within Portugal's NRRP there is up to around 0.7bn of funding linked to supporting SME digitalisation, but funding does not appear to be explicitly linked to cloud adoption targets.
Online services completion
99% Portugal (2020) 90% EU (2020) 100% Target (2030)
General use of online services in Portugal is higher than the EU27 average with 99% of key public services provided online in 2020, meaning that Portugal is one percentage point away from the target.
Up to around 1bn worth of funding within the NRRP has been linked to the digitalisation of public services with further 0.3bn to support the development of e-medical records.
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Member State Deepdives
Portugal
Infrastructure
Portugal is progressing well towards the VHCN coverage target, but is yet to launch 5G services; Whilst there appears to be no dedicated funding for network infrastructure, there is up to around 78 million linked to supporting high capacity networks in the Madeira region and up to around 110 million partially linked to support 5G coverage in business areas, both as part of broader objectives.
74
Gigabit connectivity
5G coverage in populated areas
Current trend
Portugal's deployment of VHCNs has accelerated rapidly over the last five years reaching 83% population coverage in 2020. Based on this, Portugal appears on track to meet the EU target, however there may still be barriers to extending coverage to the remaining households particularly in remote rural areas where the commercial and operational challenges of deploying networks can be significant.
Current trend
4G population coverage in Portugal had reached 96% by the end of 2020.56
Portugal had awarded 8% of harmonised 5G spectrum by the end of 2020, below the EU27 average of 20.5%.57 Portugal had not launched 5G services in the EU by the end of March 2021, which may be in part due to the delays to the award of spectrum identified for 5G.58
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs)
Whilst there appears to be no dedicated funding for network infrastructure within Portugal's plans, there is up to around 78 million of funding potentially linked to support the development of high-speed broadband network capacity in the Madeira region (although the primary objective appears to be around digitalisation of the public administration, part of which may be enabled through VHCNs).
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs)
Whilst there appears to be no dedicated funding for 5G coverage, the NRRP sets out up to around 110 million of funding to support business areas part of which is linked to reinforcing 5G communication solutions coverage in areas where businesses are located (e.g. business or industrial hubs) i.e. not aimed at supporting wide scale national 5G coverage.
VHCN (% of households covered)
100%
100%
80% 83%
60%
40%
45%
20%
17%
44%
0%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Portugal
EU27
Target 2030
Source: DESI, Deloitte analysis. Dotted lines represent indicative projections based on linear regression
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Member State Deepdives
Portugal
Skills
Across several packages, a total of up to around 1.8bn has been linked to enhancing the development of digital skills, however achieving targets will require significant increases in the proportion of the population equipped with digital skills and more than a doubling of the number of ICT specialists by 2030.
Adult basic digital skills
Current trend Around half (52%) of the population in Portugal were reported to have basic digital skills in 2020, which is below the EU27 average of 58%. To achieve the EU target, Portugal will need to equip at least an additional 28% of the population with basic digital skills by 2030.
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs) There is funding of up to around 1.8bn linked to the development of key digital skills, including workshops of high technological intensity (0.7bn), initiatives to support digital inclusion in population (0.3bn) and digital transition in education (0.5bn).
ICT specialists
Current trend The number of ICT specialists has increased in recent years, but remains less than 50% of the 2030 target level. Meeting this target may therefore require additional funding and support to train or attract at least a further 270,000 ICT specialists.
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs) Portugal does not appear to have set specific investments linked to training of ICT specialists, however the funding for enhancing digital skills could still help support progress towards the EU target.
Individuals with at least basic digital skills
Number of ICT specialists (millions)
(% of 16-74 population)
100%
0.5
0.46
80%
80%
0.4
60% 54%
58%
0.3
40% 48%
52%
20%
0.2 0.13
0.19
0.1
0%
0.0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Portugal
EU27
Target 2030
Source: DESI, Deloitte analysis. Dotted lines represent indicative projections based on linear regression
75
Portugal
Target 2030*
Source: DESI, Deloitte analysis. Dotted lines represent indicative projections based on linear regression * The Member State share of the total EU ICT specialists target (20m) has been apportioned based on population share
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Member State Deepdives
Portugal
Businesses
Digital intensity of SMEs
Businesses using Cloud computing
Portugal appears to have designated up to around 0.7bn of funding to promote the digitalisation of businesses, but a significant increase in levels of digital intensity and adoption of cloud computing services is required to meet targets.
Current trend Portugal tracks the EU27 average in terms of SMEs with at least basic digital intensity, with levels of digital intensity at 59% in 2019, compared to the EU27 average of 60%. A further 31% of total SMEs in the country will need to digitalise by 2030 if Portugal is to reach the EU target.
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs) As part of the up to around 0.7bn funding linked to the digitalisation of enterprises, the NRRP outlines investments to support the digital transition of companies, aiming to support more than 50,000 SMEs (0.5bn), provide support to 4,000 companies impacted by dissemination of key technologies (0.1bn) and catalysing the digital transition of enterprises (0.1bn).
Current trend Levels of cloud service adoption by businesses in Portugal is broadly in line with the EU27 with 16% of businesses purchasing advanced cloud computing services in 2020, compared to the EU27 average of 18%. This reinforces the challenge faced by the country and potential need for intervention. Achieving the EU target by 2030 will require an increase of 59 percentage points in the share of enterprises adopting cloud computing.
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs) The NRRP does not make explicit commitments to cloud computing services in an attempt to support business digitalisation, however funding allocated to support businesses digitise could be used to facilitate adoption of cloud computing services (directly and/or indirectly).
SMEs with at least a basic level of digital intensity (%)
100%
80% 57%
60%
40%
53%
20%
0%
90%
60% 59%
Businesses purchasing advanced cloud computing services (%)
100%
80%
75%
60%
40% 20% 11%
0% 8% *
18% 16%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Portugal
Source: Eurostat (DII), Deloitte analysis. 76
EU27
Target 2030
Portugal
EU27*
Target 2030
Source: DESI, Deloitte analysis. Dotted lines represent indicative projections based on linear regression * Missing data for 2016 for EU
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Member State Deepdives
Portugal
Public services
Portugal is reported to be close to achieving the online public services target but will need to significantly increase use of e-medical records to achieve the target. Up to around 1bn of Portugal's NRRP funds have been linked to the digitalisation of public services, with up to a further 0.3bn linked to the development of e-medical records.
Online public services
E-medical records and e-IDs
Current trend Portugal has already achieved 99% of online-enabled administrative steps related to major life events. Nevertheless, there will be broader opportunities to further digitalise public services in the country.
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs) Up to around 1bn of funding is linked to the digital transformation of public services including digital platforms for citizens (0.3bn), the development of a digital single portal that makes public services available (0.2bn) and the digital transition of social security (0.2bn)
Current trend 17% of individuals in Portugal accessed personal health records online in 2020, higher than the EU27 average of 10%. However, Portugal lags behind the EU27 average on some related metrics, such as seeking health information online (49% vs 56% EU27 average) and making appointments online (17% vs 21%).59 Achieving the target will require further improvements to facilitate nationwide access to e-medical records.
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs) Portugal has committed significant funding to the digital transformation of health care, however a total of up to around 0.3bn is linked to e-medical records, including digital transition of national registries to standardise data. The NRRP does not make explicit reference to e-IDs, however this might form part of the greater investments targeting the digitalisation of public services.
Administrative steps related to major life events that can be done online (%)
100% 80% 98% 60% 75% 40%
20%
0%
99% 90%
100%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Portugal
EU27
Target 2030
Source: DESI, Deloitte analysis. Dotted lines represent indicative projections based on linear regression 77
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Member State Deepdives
Romania
Overview of the plans and progress against targets
Around 20% of Romania's total NRRP funding has been allocated to digital transformation. Of this amount up to around 4.3bn appears to be linked to Digital Decade targets across the four areas. Whilst it is progressing well against the VHCN coverage target there is still significant improvement required across all areas.
Businesses
Skills
Infrastructure
Progress against targets
Basic digital skills 31% Romania (2020) 58% EU (2020) 80% Target (2030)
Basic digital intensity 31% Romania (2019) 60% EU (2019) 90% Target (2030)
Public services
78
VHCN household coverage
68% Romania (2020) 44% EU (2020) 100% Target (2030)
Commentary and NRRP commitments
Romania is well above the EU27 average in terms of VHCN coverage, with 68% coverage in 2020. If coverage continues to be extended at the current rate then Romania would be on track to achieving the 2030 target, however extending coverage to more remote areas may prove more challenging. The NRRP has linked up to around 80 million to support the coverage of high speed fixed internet access services, however does not appear to explicitly link funding to 5G deployment.
ICT specialists (million) 0.20 Romania (2020)
0.86 Target (2030)
Romania has relatively low levels of digital literacy compared to the EU27 average (31% vs 58%), and while it has increased gradually in recent years, digital literacy rates are still around 49 percentage points below the EU target.
Romania would need to increase the number of ICT specialists fourfold by 2030 if it is to achieve the EU target. Romania has proposed a total of up to around 1.1bn funding linked to the EU Skills targets.
Cloud adoption
7% Romania (2020) 18% EU (2020) 75% Target (2030)
Digital intensity across businesses is lower compared to the EU27 average, and was 59 percentage points below the EU target. The share of enterprises using cloud computing is following an upward trend, but remains far below the EU target (7% vs 75%).
Romania has linked up to around 0.9bn worth of funding to supporting SME digitalisation and the adoption of cloud computing services.
Online services completion
70% Romania (2020) 90% EU (2020) 100% Target (2030)
General use of online services in Romania is reported to be well below the EU27 average, with 70% online service completion in 2020. At the current level, Romania needs to increase online service completion by 30 percentage points to achieve the EU target.
The NRRP links the up to around 1.9bn to the digitalisation of public services , with a further up to around 0.4bn linked to e-IDs.
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Member State Deepdives
Romania
Infrastructure
Romania has a relatively high level of VHCN coverage but significant investment will still be required to reach the EU targets for 5G and VHCNs; The NRRP has linked up to around 80 million to the development of VHCN but does not appear to have funding linked to supporting deployment of 5G.
79
Gigabit connectivity
5G coverage in populated areas
Current trend In Romania around 68% of households had access to VHCN in 2020, well ahead of the EU27 average of 44%. However, the rate of recent growth combined with challenges in ensuring coverage for less populated areas means that significant investment is likely to be required to reach the EU target of 100% coverage.
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs) The NRRP has linked up to around 80 million to support the coverage of high speed fixed point internet access services of approximately 790 rural villages. Additionally, there is up to around 69 million of funding to support network infrastructure build within Romania's national broadband plans.60
Current trend Romania had assigned 21% of harmonized 5G spectrum by the end of 2020. This is in line with the EU27 average but may act as a barrier to deployment in the short term, with c.80% of 5G spectrum not yet available to operators.61 4G population coverage in Romania had reached 85% by the end of 2020.62 In terms of 5G coverage, the first commercial deployments are understood to have taken place in 2019. Deployment is progressing mainly across urban areas. For example, in late August 2020, Orange Romania announced its 5G network had been expanded to cover the entire city of Bucharest.a 63
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs) The NRRP mentions the development of 5G as part of the cloud strategy and administration strategy, however within the plans there is no funding explicitly linked to supporting 5G deployment.
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
VHCN (% of households covered)
100%
80%
68%
58%
60%
44%
40% 17%
20%
0%
Ro mani a
EU27
Target 2030
Source: DESI, Deloitte analysis. Dotted lines represent indicative projections based on linear regression
100%
a) Some, if not all, of the 5G deployments that have been announced are understood to be based on non-standalone alone (NSA) architecture, which may not deliver the full extent of network performance and features (e.g. ultra low latency), required to enable the full extent of 5G use cases. 5G Standalone (SA) deployments are expected to deliver this but are likely to require significant additional investment.
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Member State Deepdives
Romania
Skills
Up to around 1.1bn has been linked to helping achieve the digital skills targets, however achieving both targets is going to require a significant increase in the number of ICT specialists and people with basic digital skills.
Adult basic digital skills
ICT specialists
Current trend
In 2020, less than one third of adults were reported to have at least basic digital skills, which is the second-lowest level across the EU. Based on the recent trends, further measures including funding may needed to boost and improve digital skills across the country.
Current trend
The number of ICT specialists in Romania has been steadily increasing over the last five years, however there will need to be more than a fourfold increase in the number of ICT specialists by 2030 if Romania is to meet the EU target.
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs)
Within Romania's plans, up to around 1.1bn of funding has been linked to the digitalisation of education, to enhance the digital skills of students and teachers and adapt the curriculum for learning in virtual environment.
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs)
The NRRP does not appear to propose specific funding linked to the training of ICT specialists, however this might be covered indirectly through spending on digital education.
Individuals with at least basic digital skills (% of 16-74 population)
Number of ICT specialists (millions)
100%
1.0
80%
80%
0.8
0.86
60% 54%
58%
0.6
40%
20% 26%
31%
0%
0.4
0.2 0.16
0.20
0.0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Ro mani a
EU27
Target 2030
Source: DESI, Deloitte analysis. Dotted lines represent indicative projections based on linear regression
80
Ro mani a
Target 2030*
Source: DESI, Deloitte analysis. Dotted lines represent indicative projections based on linear regression * The Member State share of the total EU ICT specialists target (20m) has been apportioned based on population share
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Member State Deepdives
Romania
Businesses
Romania appears to have designated up to around 0.9bn of funding to promoting the digitalisation of businesses and cloud, but a significant increase in levels of digital intensity and adoption of cloud computing services is required to meet targets.
Digital intensity of SMEs
Businesses using Cloud computing
Current trend
Levels of basic digital intensity among SMEs is relatively low compared to the EU27 average. Achieving the EU target by 2030 is likely to require a significant increase in the level of SME digitalisation, and the measures to support it.
Current trend
Adoption of cloud services among businesses in Romania is relatively low (7%) compared to the EU27 average of 18%. This highlights the significant scope for increased cloud adoption but achieving the EU target will require a significant acceleration in the rate of adoption over the coming years.
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs)
Up to around 0.8bn funding linked to the digitalisation of businesses includes supporting the digitalisation of SMEs in the private sector (0.76bn) and SMEs in the tourism and culture sector (4 million).
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs)
The NRRP proposes up to around 0.1bn worth of funding linked to the development of highly advanced technologies such as high performance computing and cloud.
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
SMEs with at least a basic level of digital intensity (%)
100%
80%
60%
57%
40%
20%
37%
0%
90% 60%
31%
Ro mani a
Source: Eurostat (DII), Deloitte analysis.
European Union
Target 2030
81
Businesses purchasing advanced cloud computing services (%)
100%
80%
75%
60%
40% 20% 11%
0% 3%
18% 7%
Ro mani a
EU27 *
Target 2030
Source: DESI, Deloitte analysis. Dotted lines represent indicative projections based on linear regression * Missing data for 2016 for EU
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Member State Deepdives
Romania
Public services
Up to around 1.9bn of the NRRP funds in Romania have been linked to the digitalisation of public services, with a further up to around 0.4bn linked to the development of e-IDs.
Online public services
E-medical records and e-IDs
Current trend
In 2020 it was reported that 70% of administrative steps related to major life events could be completed online, less than the EU27 average of 90%. Although the 2030 target appears achievable based on the current trajectory, further support measures may yet be needed to support the complete transition of these public services to online access.
Current trend
Romania lags behind the EU27 average, with 5% of individuals having accessed personal health records online in 2020, compared to an EU27 average of 10%, suggesting that further measures may still be needed to enable access to e-medical records for the entire population. Romania also lags behind the EU on related measures, such as seeking health information online (28% vs 56% EU27 average) and making appointments online (5% vs 21% EU27 average).64
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs)
Within the NRRP, up to around 1.9bn of funding has been linked to the digital transformation of public services including the adoption of government cloud and interconnection of digital public systems (1.9bn) and a reform to strengthen the efficiency of justice (0.01bn).
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs)
The NRRP outlines spending commitments to support healthcare digitalisation, however does not make explicit funding commitments for the development of e-medical records. The NRRP further proposes up to around 0.4bn worth of funding as part of fiscal and pension reforms which is linked to the e-IDs target.
Administrative steps related to major life events that can be done online (%)
100% 80% 75% 60% 40% 51% 20% 0%
90% 70%
100%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Ro mani a
EU27
Target 2030
Source: DESI, Deloitte analysis. Dotted lines represent indicative projections based on linear regression 82
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Member State Deepdives
Spain
Overview of the plans and progress against targets
Around 30% of Spain's total NRRP funding has been allocated to digital transformation. Of this amount up to around 25.4bn appears to be linked to Digital Decade targets across the four areas. Whilst it is progressing very well against some Infrastructure and Public Service targets there is improvement required in particular in the Skills and Businesses areas.a
a) The analysis is based on a review of the plans that were first published on 27 April 2021 and do not take account of subsequent changes or additional submissions to those plans after the date of the first publication (see page 91 for links to the plan documents that were reviewed as part of this study). b) Part of the investment is also considered under skills targets therefore c.3.6bn is excluded from the total funding to avoid double counting.
Businesses
Skills
Infrastructure
Progress against targets
Basic digital skills 57% Spain (2020) 58% EU (2020) 80% Target (2030)
Basic digital intensity 64% Spain (2019) 60% EU (2019) 90% Target (2030)
Public services
83
VHCN household coverage
89% Spain (2020) 44% EU (2020) 100% Target (2030)
Commentary and NRRP commitments
Spain's VHCN coverage is significantly above the EU27 average. Spain appears on track to achieving the 2030 target, although deploying networks to the final 10 percent of households can pose significant challenges. Up to around 4.0bn has been linked to improving digital connectivity, promoting cybersecurity and 5G rollout. The NRRP includes an ambition to extend ultra-fast broadband and mobile coverage of 30Mbps to 100% of the population and deploy 5G in populated areas.
ICT specialists (million) 0.73 Spain (2020)
2.12 Target (2030)
In terms of digital skills Spain is broadly in line with the EU27 average. The number of ICT specialists has been increasing gradually but is still less than half the target level.
Up to around 7.3bn worth of funding is linked to support digital skills development, with a strong focus on basic digital skills. The NRRP unveils a number of packages to support this objective, which also target the development of ICT specialists.
Cloud adoption 16% Spain (2020) 18% EU (2020) 75% Target (2030)
Online services completion
96% Spain (2020) 90% EU (2020) 100% Target (2030)
Spain is just above the EU27 average in terms and SMEs basic digital intensity and just below the EU27 average in terms of cloud adoption. Achieving the targets is likely to require a significant acceleration in cloud adoption and increase in SME digital usage.
Within the plans there is up to around 12.3bn linked to supporting the digital transformation of SMEs and the adoption of cloud computing. The NRRP sets out the initiative to boost the digital transformation of SMEs and support training in digital skills.b
Spain has historically been above the EU27 average in terms of general use of online services. Up to around 4.3bn of funding has been linked to the modernisation of public services.
Within the plan there is also a component covering the "renewal and expansion of health system", which has a total value of up to around 1.1bn, and includes e-medical records as part of a broader range of initiatives. The plan also sets an aim to adapt the national legal system to community regulations in particular on electronic identification but without any explicit spending commitments.
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Member State Deepdives
Spain
Infrastructure
Spain is progressing well towards the VHCN coverage target and there is up to around 4bn linked to supporting further rollout of VHCNs (fibre and 5G).
Gigabit connectivity
Current trend
Spain has historically been above the EU27 average in terms of VHCN coverage with 89% of households covered in 2020. Whilst it appears on track to achieve the target before 2030, deploying networks to the final 10 percent of households can pose significant additional commercial and operational challenges (e.g. due to relative high deployment cost and/or physical obstacles such as terrain), which may slow down the current rate of network deployment.
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs)
Spain has set an ambition to extend ultra-fast broadband for 100% of the population as part of a up to around 4bn package aimed at digital connectivity, promoting cybersecurity and 5G rollout.
VHCN (% of households covered)
100% 89%
80%
60%
40%
45%
44%
20%
17%
0%
100%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
S pai n
EU27
Target 2030
84
Source: DESI, Deloitte analysis. Dotted lines represent indicative projections based on linear regression
5G coverage in populated areas
Current trend 4G population coverage in Spain had reached 95% by the end of 2020.65 Spain has taken gradual steps towards enabling 5G by awarding 30% of harmonized 5G spectrum by the end of 2020.66 The Spain Digital Agenda 2025 outlines the target to prepare 100% of the radio spectrum for 5G by 2025.67 In terms of 5G coverage, MNOs in Spain have announced that they have undertaken initial commercial 5G deployments mainly in densely populated urban areas (e.g. cities).68 However, many of these deployments (if not all) are understood to be based on non-standalone alone (NSA) architecture, which may not deliver the full network performance and features (e.g. ultra low latency), that have the potential to enable or support many of the 5G use cases. 5G Standalone (SA) deployments are expected to deliver this but are likely to require significant additional investment.69
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs) Within Spain's plans there is a up to around 4bn package aimed at digital connectivity, promoting cybersecurity and 5G rollout, with support for 5G deployment focussed on populated centres, transport corridors and rural areas.
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Member State Deepdives
Spain
Skills
Adult basic digital skills
ICT specialists
Across a number of packages related to digital skills, a total of up to around 7.3bn has been linked to helping achieve the skills targets, however achieving the targets is going to require a significant increase in the number of ICT specialists and people with basic digital skills.
Current trend Spain has broadly tracked the EU27 average with 57% of the population currently having at least a basic level of digital skills. Achieving the target will mean equipping an additional 23% of the population with these basic digital skills.
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs) The NRRP outlines the proposed actions to enhance digital skills with a total of up to around 7.3bn linked to achieving the basic digital skills target (albeit, as with all plans analysed in this study, some of this funding may be allocated towards other objectives i.e. not just digital skills). Key elements of the funding include a national plan for digital competences (3.6bn), promotion of vocational trainings (2.1bn) and modernisation and digitalisation of the education system including early education from 0-3 years (1.6bn).
Current trend The number of ICT specialists in Spain has grown gradually over the last five years increasing by around 180,000 (c.33%) over said period. However, achieving the target will require around 1.4 million additional ICT specialists to be trained, nearly twice the current number of ICT specialists in the country.
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs) As part of the up to around 3.6bn funding for digital competences, Spain has outlined its commitment to increasing the number of ICT specialists, although funding does not appear to have been explicitly allocated to this.
Individuals with at least basic digital skills (% of 16-74 population)
Number of ICT specialists (millions)
100%
80%
60% 54%
58%
40% 54%
57%
20%
2.5
80%
2.0
2.12
1.5
1.0 0.55
0.73
0.5
0%
0.0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
S pai n
EU27
Target 2030
Source: DESI, Deloitte analysis. Dotted lines represent indicative projections based on linear regression
85
S pai n
Target 2030*
Source: DESI, Deloitte analysis. Dotted lines represent indicative projections based on linear regression * The Member State share of the total EU ICT specialists target (20m) has been apportioned based on population share
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Member State Deepdives
Spain
Businesses
Digital intensity of SMEs
Businesses using Cloud computing
Spain appears to have designated around 12.3bn of funding to promote the digitalisation of businesses and the adoption of cloud computing, but a significant increase in levels of digital intensity and adoption of cloud computing services is required to meet targets.
Current trend The share of SMEs in Spain with at least a basic digital intensity has dropped significantly in 2018 but managed to recover by 2019 and is now broadly in line with the EU27 average. Achieving the target will require a significant increase in the proportion of SMEs using digital tools given Spain is currently around 26 percent points below the target.
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs) Up to around 3.6bn worth of funding contained within the NRRP is linked to the digital transformation of, and digital training for, SMEs.a
a) The investment is also considered under skills targets therefore excluded from the total funding to avoid double counting
Current trend Adoption of cloud computing services by businesses in Spain has been broadly in line with the EU27 average, and in 2020 was just below the EU27 average (16% vs 18%). Based on the recent trend, Spain will need to significantly increase the rate of cloud service adoption to achieve the target set by 2030.
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs) The NRRP includes investments of up to around 8.7bn linked to the target, including the development of cloud platforms (3.8bn) as part of Spain's industrial policy and support to SMEs for adopting digital solutions (4.9).
SMEs with at least a basic level of digital intensity (%)
100%
80% 61%
60%
40%
57%
20%
0%
90% 64%
60%
Businesses purchasing advanced cloud computing services (%)
100%
80%
75%
60%
40%
20% 11%
18%
0% 9%
16%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
S pai n
Source: Eurostat (DII), Deloitte analysis.
86
EU27
Target 2030
S pai n
EU27*
Target 2030
Source: DESI, Deloitte analysis. Dotted lines represent indicative projections based on linear regression * Missing data for 2016 for EU
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Member State Deepdives
Spain
Public services
Up to around 5.4bn worth of funding in Spain's plans is linked to digitalisation of public services, and Spain appears on track to meet the 2030 target for online public services provided it can maintain the growth in online usage.
Online public services
E-medical records and e-IDs
Current trend
Spain has historically been above the EU27 average, with online public services completion at 96% in 2020. The current trend leaves Spain only 4 percentage points away from the target, and if historic growth continues then Spain will potentially be on track to meet the target potentially before 2030.
Current trend
18% of individuals in Spain accessed personal health records online in 2020, compared to an EU27 average of 10%. Yet, achieving the target of e-medical records for 100% of citizens will require further investments. Spain is above the EU27 average on other related metrics, such as seeking health information online (67% vs 56% EU27 average) and making appointments online (40% vs 21%).70
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs)
As part of the up to around 4.3bn worth of funding committed to modernisation of public administration, the NRRP outlines a series of reforms and investments in the digitalisation of various state departments and the development of data driven public services.
National Recovery and Resilience Plans (NRRPs)
Within the plan there is a component covering "renewal and expansion of health system", which has a total value of up to around 1.1bn, and includes e-medical records and the generation of a health data centre that collects information, as part of a broader range of initiatives. The NRRP does not appear to propose specific investments for the development of e-IDs, however this is likely to be covered as part of the digital transformation of public services.
Administrative steps related to major life events that can be done online (%)
100%
80% 91% 75%
60%
90% 96%
100%
40%
20%
0%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
S pai n
EU27
Target 2030
Source: DESI, Deloitte analysis. Dotted lines represent indicative projections based on linear regression 87
Conclusion and next steps
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Conclusion and next steps
Wrap Up
Member states are committing significant investment to the digital transformation of their economies; however, this could be insufficient in certain areas including Digital infrastructure, ICT specialists and SME digitalisation
89
Funding linked to Digital Decade targets
· The Digital Decade targets are ambitious and will require high levels of improvement in each of the targeted areas over the coming years. If the current trajectory of progress towards the Digital Decade targets continues, by 2030 the EU may not achieve many of the targets that have been set.
· The 20 Member states have committed significant investment of up to 154bn towards digital transformation across the NRRPs. Of this amount, up to 131bn appears to be directly linked to achieving the Digital Decade targets.
· The gap between current levels and target levels of digitalisation varies greatly across Member States. Each country will face different challenges depending on several factors including the structure of the economy, the population density and demography and the geography of the territory. The majority of NRRPs include Digital funds that amount to 25% or less of the total and it is uncertain whether this will be sufficient for those countries facing the greatest challenges.
Areas where further investment may be needed
· Based on high-level analysis of the NRRPs, taking into account current trends and challenges, the potential for a gap between the targets and the levels achieved with proposed investments appears greatest in digital infrastructure, ICT specialists and digitalisation of SMEs (albeit there is wide variation between Member States and each will face different challenges in seeking to reach the Digital Decade targets).
· Digital infrastructure and connectivity has been recognised as important across the 20 Member States' plans. However, the collective investment across NRRPs and NBPs amounts to 46% of the investment gap estimated for digital connectivity (this share refers to investment of 20 Member states analysed in this report, and does not account for any investment by the remaining seven Member States).
· Further, while the NRRPs across the 20 Member States all provide funding to support SMEs digitalisation, the aggregate investment amounts to 10% of current SME digitalisation spend. Spain and Italy alone account for around two thirds of the 40bn amount.
· The 20 Member States have committed to investment in education, of which up to around 47bn is linked to digital skills. However, 9 out of 20 Member States appear to have linked funding to specifically increasing the number of ICT specialists (one of the key targets), which accounts for around a tenth of the total investment in digital skills.
Next steps The Commission is currently assessing the plans that have been submitted for review, which is expected to be followed by an evaluation by the European Council. In order to drive forward the Digital Decade ambitions, both may consider this analysis and the extent to which the National Recovery and Resilience Plans contribute to achieving these targets.
NRRPs reviewed and sources
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | NRRPs reviewed and sources
NRRPs reviewed and sources
The analysis is based on the main plan (NRRP) submitted by member states.a
Member State Austria Belgium Croatia Cyprus Czechia Denmark France Germany Greece Hungary Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Poland Portugal Romania Slovakia Slovenia Spain
91
Link to plan reviewed Österreichischer Aufbau- und Resilienzplan 2020-2026.pdf FR - Plan national pour la reprise et la resilience.pdf (belgium.be) 55 - 1 NPOO.pdf (gov.hr) Cyprus Recovery and Resilience Plan 2021-2026.pdf (dgepcd.gov.cy) Národní plán obnovy | O plánu (planobnovycr.cz) Denmark's Recovery and Resilience Plan - accelerating the green transition (fm.dk) PNRR Francais.pdf (economie.gouv.fr) Bundesfinanzministerium - Deutscher Aufbau- und Resilienzplan (DARP) adf63b36-9a48-4ea1-b0c9-a55f266160ad (minfin.gr) HET_Hungary_0517 (1).pdf PNRR.pdf (governo.it) Dokumenti (esfondi.lv) Ekonomikos gaivinimo ir atsparumo didinimo priemon ,,Naujos kartos Lietuva" (lrv.lt) Plan pour la reprise et la resilience 2021 (gouvernement.lu) KPO_projekt_30042021.pdf ficheiro.aspx (portugal.gov.pt) 0c2887df42dd06420c54c1b4304c5edf.pdf (gov.ro) prezentacia_plan-obnovy.pdf (planobnovy.sk) nacrt-za-okrevanje-in-odpornost_dokument_30-4-2021.pdf (eu-skladi.si) 30042021-Plan_Recuperacion_ Transformacion_ Resiliencia.pdf (lamoncloa.gob.es)
Publication date 4/30/2021 4/30/2021 4/29/2021 Not stated 6/1/2021 Apr-21 Not stated Not stated May-21 Not stated Not stated 4/30/2021 May-21 Apr-21 Apr-21 4/22/2021 Not stated Not stated Apr-21 4/27/2021
Deep-dive country
a) The analysis focuses on the original plans submitted to the European Commission and does not consider supporting documents and/ or subsequent updates.
Glossary and References
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Glossary
Glossary
Acronyms
BAC+5
Bn CEF2 Digital DD DESI DII EC EIB E-ID E-medical record ERDF ETIs EU EU27 5G 4G HPC ICT
Descriptions Equivalent to a Master's degree in the UK. The number +5 refers to the years of study after the baccalaureat Billion Connecting Europe Facility Digital Decade Digital Economy and Society Index Digital Intensity Index European Commission European Investment Bank Electronic identity Electronic medical record European Regional Development Fund Intermediate sized enterprises European Union The 27 European Union countries Fifth generation of mobile technology Fourth generation of mobile technology High Performance Computing Information and communications technology
93
Acronyms
IPCEI
IT ITS Mbps MNOs NBP NGA NRRP OpenRAN PhD PP R&D RRF 6G SMEs STEM VHCN VSEs
Descriptions
Important Project of Common European Interest
Information technology Information technology services Megabits per second Mobile Network Operators National Broadband Plans Next generation access National Recovery and Resilience Plans Open radio access network Doctor of philosophy Percentage point Research and Development Recovery and Resilience Facility Sixth generation of mobile technology Small to medium sized enterprises Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics Very High Capacity Network Very small enterprises
Europe's Digital Decade and the RRF Gap Analysis | Glossary
References
1. DESI by components 2. 2030 Digital Compass 3. DESI by components 4. DESI by components 5. DESI by components 6. Digital Intensity Index 7. DESI by components 8. RRF 9. The Recovery and Resilience Facility
10. The Recovery and Resilience Facility 11. The Recovery and Resilience Facility 12. EC's Guidance to Member States
Recovery and Resilience Plans 13. Digital Compass and Digital Decade
targets 14. Eurostat 15. DESI 16. Digital Decade targets, DESI by
components; Digital Intensity Index, and 2030 Digital Compass 17. NGA 18. VHFC
19. Broadband in EU countries
20. 2030 Digital Compass: the European way for the Digital Decade
21. Broadband in EU countries
22. Basic digital skills
23. ICT specialists
24. Digital Intensity Index
25. Cloud computing Services refers to hosting of the enterprise's database, accounting software applications, CRM software, computing power
26. Online Service Completion The share of administrative steps related to major life events (birth of a child, new residence, etc) that can be done online. The following life events are included in the scope: Regular business operations and Business Start-up, Moving, Owning and driving a car, Starting a small claims procedure, Family, Career and Studying;
27. DESI
28. DESI by componentsI
29. 5G Observatory and Vodafone
30. Eurostat
31. DESI
32. DESI 33. 5G Observatory - Commercial Launches 34. Eurostat 35. DESI 36. DESI 37. 5G Observatory 38. Eurostat 39. DESI 40. 5G Observatory 41. Eurostat 42. Broadband in EU countries 43. DESI 44. DESI 45. 5G Observatory - Commercial Launches 46. Eurostat 47. DESI 48. DESI 49. 5G Observatory 50. Eurostat 51. Eurostat 52. DESI
53. 5G Observatory 54. National 5G Plans and Strategies 55. Eurostat 56. DESI 57. DESI 58. 5G Services 59. Eurostat 60. Broadband in EU countries 61. DESI 62. DESI 63. 5G Observatory 64. Eurostat 65. DESI 66. DESI 67. Country information Spain 68. 5G Observatory 69. Ericsson 70. Eurostat
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