197412

197412 197412

User Manual: 197412

Open the PDF directly: View PDF .
Page Count: 36

computers

and

people

formerly

Computers and Automation

..

(:-

December,

1974

scrE~e{AND'

sUs.

NDESERT ROSEN

Engineering Computer Pro-

grams:

How

They

Grow

-A. Marcos

and

S.

L.

Chu

Changing Technology and

Medical Specialization

-

Ray

M.

Antley

and

Mary

Ann

Antley

The Computer

Industry

and Unionization

-A. A. I mberman

The Radiation

from

Com-

puters I

nto

Everywhere

-

Neil

Macdonald

Watergate South

-Nancy A.

Miller

The Assassination

of

the

Reverend Martin Luther

King, Jr., Conclusion

-Wayne Chastain,

Jr

.

INVENTORY

OF

THE

36

ISSUES

OF -

TITLES

AND

SUMMARIES

THE

NOTEBOOK

ON

COMMON

SENSE,

FIRST

YEAR

VOLUME 1

1. Right Answers - A

Short

Guide

to

Obtaining

Them

A collection

of

82

principles

and

maxims. Example:

"The

moment

you have

worked

out

an answer,

start

checking it -it

probably

isn't

right."

2.

The

Empty

Column

A parable

about

a symbol

for

zero,

and

the

failure

to

recognize

the

value

of

a good idea.

3.

The

Golden

Trumpets

of

Yap Yap

4.

Strategy

in

Chess

5.

The

Barrels

and

the

Elephant

A discussion

of

truth

vs. believability.

6.

The

Argument

of

the

Beard

The

accumulation

of

many

small differences

may

make a huge difference.

7.

The

Elephant

and

the

Grassy Hillside

The

concepts

of

the

ordinary everyday

world

vs.

the

pointer

readings

of

exact

science.

8.

Ground

Rules

for

Arguments

9. False Premises, Valid Reasoning,

and

True

Conclusions

The

fallacy

of

asserting

that

the

prem ises

must

first

be

correct

in

order

that

correct

conclusions be

derived.

10.

The

I nvestigation

of

Common

Sense

11. Principles

of

General Science

and

Proverbs

8 principles

and

42

proverbs.

12.

Common

Sense -Questions

for

Consideration

13. Falling

1800

Feet

Down a Mountain

The

story

of

a skimobiler

who

fell

1/3

of

a mile

down

Mt. Washington, N.H.,

and

was rescued

the

next

day;

and

how

he used his

common

sense

and

survived.

14.

The

Cult

of

the

Expert

15. Preventing Mistakes from Failure

to

Understand

Even

though

you do

not

understand

the

cause

of

some

trouble,

you may still be able

to

deal with

it.

The

famous

example

of

a

cure

for

malaria.

16.

The

Stage

of

Maturity

and

Judgement

17. Doomsday

in

St.

Pierre, Martinique -

Common

Sense

vs.

Catastrophe

How

30,000

people refusing

to

apply

their

common

sense died

from

a volcanic

eruption.

18.

The

History

of

the

Doasyoulikes

19. Individuality

in

Human Beings

Their chemical natures are as widely varied as

their

external features.

20. How

to

be Silly

71

recipes

for

being silly. Example:

"Use

twenty

words

to

say something when

two

will

do."

21.

The

Three

Earthworms

A parable

about

curiosity;

and

the

importance

of

making observations for oneself.

22.

The

Cochrans

vs.

Catastrophe

The history

of

Samuel Cochran,

Jr.,

who

ate

some

vichyssoise soup.

23. Preventing Mistakes from Forgetting

24. What

is

Common

Sense? -

An Operational Definition

A

proposed

definition of

common

sense

not

using

synonyms

but

using behavior

that

is

observable.

25.

The

Subject

of

What

is

Generally True

and

Important

-

Common

Sense, Elementary and Advanced

26. Natural History,

Patterns,

and

Common

Sense

Some

important

techniques

for observing.

27. Rationalizing

and

Common

Sense

28.

Opposition

to

New Ideas

Some

of

the

common

but

foolish reasons

for

opposing new ideas.

29. A Classification

and

Review

of

the

Issues

of

Vol.

30.

Index

to

Volume 1

2

VOLUME 2

31.

Adding Years

to

your

Life

Through

Common

Sense

A person

who

desires

to

live long

and

stay

well needs

to

understand

some

20

principles, including

how

to

test

all

the

health advice he receives

for

its

common

sense,

and

how

to

develop habits

of

health practices

which

fit

him.

32.

The

Number

of

Answers

to

a Problem

Problems may have

many

answers,

one

answer,

or

no

answer

...

and

answers

that

are

good

at

one

time

may

be bad

at

another.

33.

"Stupidity

has a Knack

of

Getting Its

Way"

"

...

as

we

should

see

if

we were

not

always so

much

wrapped

up

in

ourselves."

-

Albert

Camus

34. Time, Sense,

and

Wisdom -

Some

Notes

The

supply

of

time,

the

quantity

of

time,

the

kinds

of

time,

and

the

conversion

of

time.

.

..

A great deal

of

the

time

in

a

man's

life

is

regularly, systematically,

and

irretrievably wasted. This

is

a serious mistake.

35.

Time,

Sense,

and

Wisdom -

Some

Proverbs

and

Maxims

56

quotations

and

remarks

by

dozens

of

great men.

36.

Wisdom -

An

Operational Definition

"A

wise person

takes

things as

they

are

and,

knowing

the

conditions,

proceeds

to

deal with

them

in

such a

manner as

to

achieve

the

desired

result."

-Somerset Maugham

EXCITING: Q:

Is

the

Notebook

exciting?

A:

Some

of

the

issues, like

"Falling

1800

Feet

Down a

Mountain"

and

"Doomsday

in

St.

Pierre,

Martinique",

are among

the

most

exciting

true

stories

we

know.

USEFUL: Q:

Is

the

Notebook

useful?

A: It

ought

to

be

useful

to

anybody

-as useful

as

common

sense.

There

exists no

textbook

on

common

sense;

the

Notebook

tries

to

be a good beginning

to

common

sense, science, and wisdom.

PAST ISSUES: As a

new

subscriber,

you

do

not

miss past is-

sues. Every subscriber's subscription

starts

at

Vol. 1, no.

1,

and

he eventually receives all issues.

The

past

issues

are

sent

to

him usually

four

at

a

time,

every week

or

two,

until he has

caught

up,

and

thus

he

does

not

miss

important

and interesting issues

that

never go

out

of

date.

GUARANTEE:

(1) You

may

return

(in 7 days)

the

first batch

of

issues we send

you,

for

FULL

REFUND,

if

not

satis-

factory.

(2)

Thereafter,

you

may

cancel

at

any

time,

and

you will receive a

refund

for

the

unmailed

portion

of

your

subscription. -

WE

WANT ONLY HAPPY AND

SATISFIED

SUBSCRIBERS.

I - - - - - - - - - - (may be

copied

on

any

piece

of

paper) - - - - - - - - - - - - -

~

To:

Berkeley Enterprises, Inc.

815

Washington

St.,

Newtonville,

MA

02160

) YES, I

would

like

to

try

the

"Notebook

on

Common

Sense,

Elementary

and

Advanced".

Please

enter

my

subscription

at

$12

a year,

24

issues, newsletter style,

and

extras.

Please send

me

issues 1

to

6 as

FREE

PREMI UMS

for

subscribing.

I enclose

_____

_

) Please bill

my

organization.

Name Title

_________

_

Organization

__________________

_

Address

___________________________________

___

Signature

_________

Purch.

Order

No.

____

__

COMPUTERS

and

PEOPLE

for

December,

1974

9

1

The

Notebook

on

COMMON

SENSE,

ELEMENTARY

AND

ADVANCED

is

devoted

to

development,

exposition,

and

illustration

of

what

may

be

the

most

important

of

all fields

of

knowledge:

WHAT

IS

GENERAllY

TRUE

AND IMPORTANT

+ WISDOM +

+ +

PURPOSES:

to

help

you

avoid pitfalls

to

prevent

mistakes

before

they

happen

to

display new

paths

around

old

obstacles

to

point

out

new

solutions

to

old

problems

to

stimulate

your

resourcefulness

to

increase

your

accomplishments

to

improve

your

capacities

to

help

you

solve

problems

to

give

you

more

tools

to

think

with

8REASONS

TO

BE

INTERESTED IN THE

FIELD

OF

COMMON

SENSE,

WISDOM, AND

GENERAL

SCIENCE

COMPUTERS

are

important

-

But

the

computer

field

is

over

25

years old. Here

is

a

new

field

where

you

can

get

in

on

the

ground

floor

to

make

your

mark.

MATHEMATICS

is

important

-

But

this field

is

more

important

than

mathematics,

because

+

+

Topic:

AVOIDANCE

OF

LOGICAL

FALLACIES

THE

SYSTEMATIC

PREVENTION

OF

MISTAKES

Already Published

Preventing Mistakes

from:

Failure

to

Understand

Forgetting

Unforeseen Hazards

Placidity

Camouflage

To

Come

Preventing Mistakes

from:

Bias

Interpretation

Distraction

Gullibility

Failure

to

Observe

Failure

to

Inspect

Prejudice

+

Topic:

SYSTEMATIC EXAMINATION

OF

GENERAL

CONCEPTS

Already Published

The

Concept

of:

Expert

Rationalizing

Feedback

Model

Black Box

Evolution

Niche

Understanding

To

Come

Strategy

Teachable

Moment

Indeterminacy

System

Operational

Definition

+

common

sense,

wisdom,

and

general science have

more

applications.

LOGIC

is

important

-.- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

(may

be

copied

on

any

piece

of

paper) - - - - - - - - - - . - - . - - - - - - - - - .

~

o

To:

Berkeley Enterprises, Inc.

But

this

field

is

more

important

than

logic, because

common:

815

Washington

St.,

Newtonville,

MA

02160

sense plus

wisdom

plus science in general

is

much

broader

than

logic.

WISDOM

is

important

-

This field

can

be

reasonably called

"the

engineering

of

wisdom".

) Yes, please

enter

my

subscription

to

The

Notebook on Common

Sense,

Elementary

and

Advanced

at

$12

a year

(24

issues), plus

extras.

I

understand

that

you

always begin

at

the

beginning

and

so I shall

not

miss

any

issues.

COMMON

SENSE

is

important

-0 ( ) Please send

me

as

free

premiums

for

subscribing:

This field includes

the

systematic

study

and

development

of:

1.

Right

Answers

- A

Short

Guide

to

Obtaining

Them

4.

Strategy

in

Chess

2.

The

Empty

Column

5.

The

Barrels

and

the

Elephant

common

sense.

SCI ENCE is

important

-o

3.

The

Golden

Trumpets

of

Yap Yap

6.

The

Argument

of

the

Beard

This field includes

what

is

common

to

all

the

sciences,

what:

is

generally

true

and

important

in

the

sciences.

MISTAKES

are

costly

and

to

be AVOIDED -

This field includes

the

systematic

study

of

the

prevention

of

:

mistakes.

MON

EY

is

important

-

The

systematic

prevention

of

mistakes in

your

organization

0

might save

10

to

20%

of

its expenses

per

year.

COMPUTERS

and

PEOPLE

for

December,

1974

( ) I enclose $ ) Please bill

my

organization

RETURNABLE IN 7 DAYS

FOR

FULL

REFUND IF NOT SATISFACTORY

HOW

CAN YOU LOSE?

Name

_____________

Title

_______

_

Organization

____________________

_

Address

(including

zip)

_________________

_

Signature

__________

_

Purchase

Order

No.

___

_

3

Vol.

23, No. 12

December,

1974

Editor and

Edmund

C.

Berkeley

Publisher

Assistant

Editors

Art

Editor

Software

Editor

Contributing

Editors

Barbara

L.

Chaffee

Linda Ladd Lovett

Neil D. Macdonald

Grace C. Hertlein

Stewart

B.

Nelson

George

N.

Arnovick

John

Bennett

Moses

M.

Berlin

Andrew

D.

Booth

John

W.

Carr

III

Ted

Schoeters

Richard

E.

Sprague

London

Thomas

Land

Correspondent

Advisory

Ed

Burnett

Committee James

J.

Cryan

Editorial

Offices

Advertising

Contact

Bernard

Quint

Berkeley Enterprises, Inc.

815

Washington St.

Newtonville,

MA

02160

617-332-5453

The

Publisher

Berkeley Enterprises, Inc.

815

Washington St.

Newtonville,

MA

02160

617-332-5453

"Computers

and

People,"

formerly

"Computers

and

Automation,"

is

published

monthly,

12

issues

per

year,

at

815

Washing-

ton

St.,

Newtonville,

MA

02160,

by

Berkeley

Enterprises,

I

nco

Printed

in

U.S.A.

Second

Class

Postage

paid

at

Boston,

MA,

and

addi-

tional

mailing

points.

Subscription

rates:

United

States,

$11.50

for

one

year,

$22.00

for

two

years.

Canada:

add

$1

a

year;

Mexico,

add

$6

a

year.

Else-

where:

one

year,

Swiss

francs

60;

order

through

Reliable

Information

Publishing

Company,

P.O.

Box

52,

6354

Vitznau,

Switzerland.

NOTE:

The

above

rates

do

not

include

our

publication

"The

Computer

Directory

and

Buyers'

Guide".

If

you

elect

to

re-

ceive

"The

Computer

Directory

and

Buyers'

Guide,"

please

add

$12.00

per

year

to

your

subscription

rate

in

U.S.

and

Canada,

and

$15.00

in

Mexico;

elsewhere,

the

price

of

the

Directory

is

Swiss

francs

90,

not

includ-

ing

postage

and

handling;

please

order

through

Reliable

I

nformation

Publishing

Company,

P.O.

Box

52,

6354

Vitznau,

Switzerland.

Please

address

mall

to:

Berkeley

Enter-

prises,

Inc.,

815

Washington

St.,

Newton-

ville,

MA

02160,

or

to

Berkeley

Enterprises,

Inc.,

c/o

Reliable

I

nformation

Publishing

Co.,

P.O.

Box

52,

6354

Vitznau,

Switzerland.

Postmaster:

Please

send

all

forms

3579

to

Berkeley

Enterprises,

Inc.,

815

Washing-

ton

St.,

Newtonville,

MA

02160.

©

Copyright

1974,

by

Berkeley

Enter-

prises,

Inc.

Change

of

address:

If

your

address

changes,

please

send

us

both

your

new

address

and

your

old

address

(as

it

ap-

pears

on

the

magazine

address

imprint),

and

allow

three

weeks

for

the

change

to

be

made.

4

computers

and

people

formerly Computers

and

Automation

Computers

and

Engineering

8 Engineering

Computer

Programs:

How

They

Grow

by

A. Morcos

and

S. L.

Chu,

Sargent

and

Lundy,

Chicago,

III.

How

computer

programs

for

engineering

situations

actually

develop

and

evolve.

Computers

and

Medicine

15

Changing

Technology

and

Medical Specialization

by

Ray

M.

Antley

and

Mary

Ann

Antley,

Indianapolis, Ind.

How

25

years

of

applying

computer

systems

in

medicine

are

leading

to

integrated

control

of

the

environment

for

the

benefit

of

patients.

The Computer

Industry

[A]

[A]

12

The

Computer

Industry

and

Unionization

[A]

by

A. A. I

mberman,

I

mberman

and

DeForest,

Chicago,

III.

How

to

really listen

to

employee

grievances

while

they

are

still

minor,

and

respond

quickly

to

them,

to

the

advantage

of

nearly

everybody

concerned.

11

The

Radiation

from

Computers

Into

Everywhere [A]

by

Neil

Macdonald,

Survey

Editor,

Computers

and

People

Some

of

the

ever-widening influences

of

computers

upon

many

different

areas.

7

Contact

with

Holders

of

the

Certificate

of

Data Processing

[F)

by

John

K.

Swearingen, Pres., I

nstitute

for

Certification

of

Computer

Professionals, Chicago,

III.

An

effort

to

reach all COP holders.

7

Annual

Computer

Programming

Contest

[F)

by

Dr.

Gary

G.

Bitter,

Arizona

State

Univ.

For

students

in

grades 7

to

12:

the

annual

contest

of

the

Association

for

Educational

Data

Systems.

Applications

of

Computers

32

Computing

and

Data

Processing

Newsletter

[C)

Computer

Gives New Mexico Museum Full Access

to

its

Mineral

Collection

Computer

System

for

a Racing

Yacht

that

Won

Cameras

and

Computers

Combine

to

Analyze

Rocket

Flights

1

"Desert

Rose"

[Front

Cover]

A

"desert

rose"

of

crystal

gypsum,

at

the

New Mexico

Mineralogical Museum

of

the

New Mexico

Bureau

of

Mines. A

computer

uses X-ray results

to

analyze

each

specimen,

and

catalogs

it.

See page

32.

COMPUTERS

and

PEOPLE

for

December,

1974

..

,

The magazine

of

the

design, applications,

and

implications

of

information processing

systems

-

and

the

pursuit

of

truth

in

input,

output,

and

processing,

for

the

benefit

of

people.

6

"1

Am

Interested

To

Know

What a

Computer

Can Do [E]

For

Me"

by

Edmund

C. Berkeley,

Editor

What

sorts

of

questions

a

computer

can

answer,

and

how

it answers

them.

7

"Computer

Art

for

the

Artist"

-

Comment

[F]

by

James

C.

Ver Hague,

Jr.,

State

University

of

New

York

at

Buffalo

Additional

information

wanted

for

teaching

computer

art.

7

"Can

Tigger

Think?

Can Peder

Think?"

-

Comment

[F]

by

Bryce

M.

Mitchell, Universidade Federal

de

Sao

Carlos, Sao Carlos, Brazil

The Profession

of

Information

Engineer

and

the

Pursuit

of

Truth

18

Watergate

South

[A]

by

Nancy A. Miller,

Princeton,

N.J.

How a

third

effort

was

made

by

many

Watergate-

connected

figures

to

provoke

violence

and

riots,

and

prepare

the

groundwork

for

a

cancelation

of

the

1972 elections.

26

The

Assassination

of

the

Reverend Martin

Luther

King,

Jr.,

and

Possible Links

with

the

Kennedy

Murders -Part

11

(Conclusion)

[A]

by

Wayne Chastain,

Jr.,

Attorney,

Memphis,

Tenn.

The

final

instalment

of

a

report

of

a

diligent

study

into

the

details

and

circumstances

of

the

assassination

of

the

Reverend Martin

Luther

King,

Jr.,

on

April

4,

1968,

and

related events,

and

the

considerable

evidence

of

a conspiracy.

Computers, Puzzles,

and

Games

30

Games

and

Puzzles

for

Nimble Minds -

and

Computers

[C]

Key

[A]

[C]

[E]

[F]

by

Neil Macdonald, Assistant

Editor

GIZZMO -

Some

computational

Jabberwocky.

MAXIMDIJ -Guessing a

maxim

expressed

in

digits.

NA YMANDIJ - A

systematic

pattern

among

randomness?

NUMBLES -Deciphering

unknown

digits

from

arithmet-

ical relations.

SIXWORDO -Paraphrasing a passage

into

sentences

of

not

more

than

six

words

each.

Article

Monthly

Column

Editorial

Forum

NOTICE

*0

ON

YOUR

ADDRESS

IMPRINT

MEANS

THAT

YOUR

SUBSCRIP-

TION

INCLUDES

THE

COMPUTER

DIRECTORY.

*N

MEANS

THAT

YOUR

PRESENT SUBSCRIPTION

DOES

NOT

INCLUDE

THE

COM-

PUTER

DIRECTORY.

COMPUTERS

and

PEOPLE

for

December,

1974,

ANNOUNCEMENT

THE COMPUTER CENSUS

which

Computers

and

People has pub-

lished

in

the

past will

now

be

published

separately

and

more

completely

as a

quarterly

service, regular

subscription

price

$33.00

per year. Until

January:

10, 1975,

any

subscriber

to

Computers

and People

may

subscribe

at

half price.

Outside

U.S., Canada,

and

Mexico,

please

add

$5.00

per year

for

addi-

tional costs.

NEW

CONTRACTS

AND

NEW

INSTALLATIONS

which

Computers

and

People has

pub-

lished

in

the

past will

now

be

published

separately

and

more

completely

as a

bimonthly

service, regular

subscription

price

$30.00

per year. Until

January

10, 1975,

any

subscriber

to

Computers

and

People may subscribe

at

half price.

Outside

U.S., Canada,

and

Mexico,

please

add

$5.00

per year

for

addi-

tional costs.

------

-(may

be

copied

on-

------

--

I

any

piece

of

paper)

TO:

Computers

and

People

Berkeley Enterprises, Inc.

815

Washington Street

Newtonville,

MA

02160, U.S.A.

( ) YES, please send me

( )

THE

COMPUTER CENSUS,

quarterly,

at

$33.00 a year

NEW

CONTRACTS

AND

NEW

INSTALLATIONS,

bimonthly,

at

$30.00 a year

( ) I claim 50% discount

as

a subscriber

to

Computers

and

People

Total

payment

_____

_

I enclose check

Please

bill

my

organization;

the

pur-

chase

order no.

is

_____

_

My

name and address are attached.

5

EDITORIAL

ttl

Am

Interested

To

Know

What

a

Computer

Can

Do

For

Me"

The

man

who

said

that

to

me

was

an

old

friend.

He

was

no

mathematician,

but

a former dean

of

a

dental

school;

he

had

specialized

in

dental

public

health;

he

had had

an

excellent

education.

In

spite

of

be-

ing

no

mathematician

he

had

navigated

a small

ship

out

of

sight

of

land;

and he had computed means,

stan-

dard

deviations,

chi-squared

tests,

and

other

statis-

tical

measures.

How

could I answer

this

useful

question?

The

first

step

was

to

send

him

a

list

of

many

ap-

plications

of

computers.

In

1973

we

published

a

list

of

over 2400

applications

of

computers. That

list

contained

179

applications

in

medicine;

here

is

a

small

excerpt:

Coronary

artery

disease

prediction

Cystic

fibrosis:

detection

in

new-born

babies

Cytology

diagnosis

Cytophotometric

analysis

Dermatoglyphic

analysis

But what

is

the

second

step?

What

ideas

do

you

give

to

an

ordinary

person

(nontechnical

but

educa-

ted)

so

that

he

can conceive

of

how

a computer can

be

of

help

to

him?

In

the

case

of

a motor

car,

there

is

no

great

problem

in

"knowing what a motor

car

can

do

for

me."

A

car

can

take

you

somewhere where

you

want

to

go.

And

you

are

already

full

of

ideas

of

places

where

you

want

to

go.

However,

for

any

particular

trip

in

a motor

car

you

have

to

make

a

decision

about where

you

want

to

go. Also,

if

you

do

not

know

the

way

there,

you

have

to

get

hold

of

a

map

and choose

the

way: which roads

you

will

travel

on,

how

far

on

each

you

will

go, what

turnings

you

will

take,

what

signs

you

will

be

guided

by.

Much

the

same

situation

applies

when

you

want

to

find

some

information

that

has probably been

publish-

ed.

Recently

at

a

birthday

party

somebody

showed

me

an

old book:

Volume

2

of

"The

Life

of

George

Wash-

ington"

by

Washington

Irving,

published

in

1900.

My

curiosity

was

stirred

about George Washington.

The

next

day I looked

up

in

an

encyclopedia

the

entry

"George Washington,"

and

sati

sfied

much

of

my

curios-

ity.

I used

the

standard

travel-map

rules

applying

to

reference

books: begin with

an

encyclopedia,

and

look

for

the

topic

name

in

alphabetical

sequence.

A computer,

like

a motor

car

and

a

reference

book,

can

take

you

where

you

want

to

go.

First

you

have

to

want

to

know

something, and second

you

have

to

ob-

tain

knowledge

of

how

to

figure

it

out.

6

A computer can

figure

out

averages,

standard

de-

viations,

chi-squared

tests,

and

other

statistical

measures

--

if

you

want

to

know

them.

You

can

usu-

ally

buy

a

map

for

this

purpose, which

will

be

call-

ed a "computer program." A computer can even

tell

you

the

answer

(if

you

want

to

know

it)

to

such a

question

as,

"What

is

the

minimum

number

of

cubes

whi

ch

when

added

wi

11

equal a gi

ven

number?"

and

which cubes they

are.

For example, suppose

the

giv-

en number

is

229.

Then

the

ariswer

is

that

the

mini-

mum

number

of

cubes

is

7;

and

there

are

exactly

three

solutions,

and here they

are:

3 x

64

+ 1 x

27

+ 1 x 8 + 2 x 1

1 x 125 + 1 x

64

+ 5 x 8

1 x

216

+ 1 x 8 + 5 x 1

In

this

case,

the

map,

the

way

to

produce

the

answers

desired,

will

probably

require

some

clever

program-

mer

to

spend

several

hours producing a sequence

of

some

300

instructions

in

machine language

that

the

computer needs

for

a

map.

The

situation

of

computer

maps

is

much

like

driv-

ing

your

car

in

a

strange

land where

there

is

no

light,

only

thick

black

darkness

--

and

all

the

signs

are

written

in

a language

that

you

do

not

understand.

So

before

you

start

out

driving,

you

have

to

get

from

somebody

a complete and

accurate

set

of

instructions;

and

the

instructions

must

include

the

names

of

the

signposts

at

the

intersections;

and

when

you

come

to

an

intersection,

you

turn

on

your

flashlight,

read

all

the

signs

carefully,

compare them with

the

ap-

propriate

notes

in

your

set

of

instructions,

and

then

try

your

best

to

choose

the

right

turning.

Fortunately,

in

this

dark

land

where computer

maps

are

used, whenever

you

travel

a second time

from

place

A

to

place

B,

if

your road

map

worked

OK

the

first

time,

then

it

will

work

OK

over

and over

again.

And

each

later

time

it

will

work

lightning

fast.

So

whenever

you

want

to

travel

again,

you

have

practically

no

problem

at

all.

The

inefficien-

cy

of

the

first

trip

is

replaced

by

utmost

efficien-

cy

for

all

later

trips.

But

you

still

need a

place

you

want

to

go

to

(a

question

you

want answered) and a

map

of

how

to

get

there

(a complete

set

of

instructions

for

figuring

out

the

answer).

E"~d...c.

..

~

Edmund

C.

Berkeley

Editor

COMPUTERS

and

PEOPLE

for

December.

1974

THE

PURPOSE

OF FORUM

•

To

give

you, our readers,

an

opportunity to discuss

ideas that

seem

to you important.

•

To

express criticism or comments on what you

find

published in our

magazine.

•

To

help computer people and other people discuss

significant problems related to computers, 9ata

processing, and their applications

and

implications,

including information engineering, professional be-

havior, and the pursuit

of

truth in input, output,

and

pro

cessing.

Your participation

is

cordially invited.

ANNUAL

COMPUTER PROGRAMMING CONTEST

AEDS

Programming Contest

Association

for

Educational Data Systems

Dr. Gary

G.

Bitter

College

of

Education

Arizona State Univ.

Tempe,

AZ

85281

This

12th annual

contest

is

for

students

in

Grades

7 through 12. Seven

first

prizes

of

$25

(in

bonds)

will

be awarded

in

the

categories:

business,

bio-

logical

science;

computer

science;

games;

humanities;

mathematics;

physical

science.

A Grand

Prize

of

$100

(in

bonds)

will

be awarded

to

one

of

the

win-

ners

in

the

individual

categories.

All

entries

must

be

received

by

March

1.

The

Association,

also

known

as

AEDS,

is

a

national

organization

comprised

of

administrators,

teachers,

systems

analysts,

and programmers

of

educational

data

processing

systems

in

vocational,

public,

and

pri-

vate

schools.

The

contest

is

on

the

approved

list

of

national

contests

and

activities

of

the

National

Association

of

Secondary School

Principals.

The

Programming

Contest

winner

will

receive

not

only

a U.S. Savings

Bond

but

also

an

expense-paid

trip

to

the

1975

AEDS

Convention

in

Virginia

Beach,

Virginia,

on

April

29-May

2.

The

winning

student's

teacher

also

will

receive

an

expense-paid

trip

to

the

convention.

"COMPUTER

ART

FOR THE

ARTIST"

-COMMENT

To:

The

Art

Editor:

From:

James

C.

Ver

Hague,

Jr.

Department

of

Art

State Univ.

of

New York

at

Buffalo

Buffalo,

NY

14214

Your

article,

"Computer Art

for

the

Artist,"

ap-

pearing

in

the

August 1974

issue

of

"Computers and

People,"

was

very

interesting

to

me.

The

Department

of

Art

here

is

initiating

a

course

in

computer

art

and

graphics

beginning

this

fall

semester.

As

the

instructor

for

the

course,

I found your

outline

to

be

very

well-conceived

and have

restructured

some

of

the

planned

course

material

as a

result.

I would

very

much

appreciate

your sending

to

me

a

more

de-

tailed

course

plan

including

your

bibliography

of

references

and/or

any

additional

material

that

you

feel

might

aid

in

getting

such a

course

successfully

off

the

ground.

Does

there

exist

the

possibility

of

an

exchange

of

computer programs

either

with

you

or

others

that

have

taught

a

similar

course?

COMPUTERS

and

PEOPLE

for

December,

1974

MULTI-ACCESS

FORUM

Like a number

of

people

interested

in

computer

art,

my

background

is

primarily

a

technological

one.

I have

an

M.S.

in

mathematics and worked

for

four

years

in

the

aerospace

developing

computer programs

for

structural

analysis

research.

While working

on

one

of

the

plot

programs, I

accidentally

began

gen-

erating

forms

that

suggested

sculptural

possibili-

ties

to

me.

Eventually,

I became

more

interested

in

the

potentialities

of

computer

art

than

in

the

work I

was

doing and

finally

quit

to

obtain

more

formal

training

in

the

field

of

art.

I

am

current-

ly

a Teaching

Assistant

completing

my

final

year

in

the

M.F.A. Program

at

Buffalo.

I

am

looking

forward

to

receiving

your

detailed

course

plan.

"CAN

TIGGER THINK? CAN PEDER

THINK?"

-COMMENT

Bryce

M.

Mitchell

universidade Federal

de

Sao

Carlos

Laboratorio

de

Idiomas

Sao

Carlos 13560, Brazil

We

would

like

to

request

permission

to

reprint

a

section

from "Computers and

People,"

Vol. 23,

No.

6,

page

6.

We

propose

to

use

this

editorial

by

Edmund

C.

Berkeley

as

a

reading

in

a

textbook

for

the

teaching

of

scientific

and

technical

English

to

speakers

of

other

languages.

We

will,

of

course,

give

full

credit

to

the

source.

Thank you very

much

for

your

consideration

in

this

matter.

EditD.rial Note:

Permission

granted.

CONTACT WITH HOLDERS OF THE CERTIFICATE OF

DATA

PROCESSING

John

K.

Swearingen, President

Institute

for

Certification

of

Computer Professionals

Box 1442

Chicago, III. 60690

The

Institute

of

the

Certification

of

Computer

Professionals

on

October

5,

1974

made

its

first

mail-

ing

to

approximately

15,000

holders

of

the

Certifi-

cate

of

Data

Processing

(COP).

In

order

to

contact

those

COP

holders

whose

up-

to-date

address

we

did

not

have, would

you

please

publish

this

notice,

addressed

to

holders

of

the

Certificate:

If

you

did

not

receive

our

mailing

of

October

5,

1974,

it

is

probably

because

we

do

not

have

your

correct

address.

We

have a message

of

in-

terest

and

importance

to

you.

Please

send us

your

correct

address,

class

year,

and

your

Cer-

tificate

Number

if

available.

7

Engineering Computer

Prlograms:

How

They

Grow

A.

Marcos

S.

L.

Chu

Structural Analytical Division

Sargent and Lundy, Engineers

55

East Monroe St.

Chicago,

IL

60603

"Although a program cannot

as

yet take over conceptual design, nevertheless, used

as

a

tool

for

analysis,

it

can

study complex models swiftly, and provide reliable and quick

estimates

of

the merits

of

various engineering solutions to a problem. "

Two Basic Functions

In

engineering

design

firms,

computer programs

perform

two

basic

functions:

carrying

out

calcula-

tions,

and

presenting

the

results

in

a

prescribed

format.

Yet

neither

the

programs nor

the

functions

they

perform

are

static.

Both change as

often

as

engineers

change

designs,

methods

of

analysis

or

even

personal

tastes

regarding

the

looks

of

computer

output.

This

is

especially

true

of

the

programs used

in

the

design

of

nuclear

power

plants,

an

area

which

is

a prime concern

with

us.

In

this

design

area,

there

is

a

continual

advance

in

technology.

Consequently,

it

naturally

follows

that

the

programs used must

con-

tinually

evolve

to

keep

pace.

Numerous Computer Programs

Although a program

cannot,

as

yet,

take

over

the

conceptual

design

function,

nevertheless,

used

as

a

tool

for

analysis,

it

can

study

complex models

swift-

ly,

and

provide

reliable

and quick

estimates

of

the

merits

of

various

engineering

solutions

to

a

given

problem. Because

of

this

increasing

importance,

it

is

not

unusual

to

find

numerous computer programs

being

conceived

daily

to

handle

the

ever-increasing

engineering

problems

confronting

engineering

design

firms.

Let's

follow

the

evolution

of

a

typical

en-

gineering

computer program.

Birth

of

a Program

The

conception

of

a

new

program and

its

subsequent

gestation

generally

take

place

in

engineering

research

groups;

at

Sargent

& Lundy

the

analytical

divisions

are

assigned

this

task.

These

divisions

may

inves-

tigate

and

recommend

modification

of

one

of

the

ex-

isting

programs

or

develop

a

new

one.

Validation

For our

purposes,

let's

consider

that

a

new

pro-

gram has been

initiated.

After

it

is

written

and

de-

bugged,

validation

begins.

By

this

process

the

pro-

gram

is

insured

of

doing what

the

programmer

intends

it

to;

or

in

other

words,

the

program

is

checked

for

internal

consistency.

Known

simple

calculations

may

be used

to

check

for

uniformity;

or

another

program

with

similar

capabilities

but

with

a

different

ap-

proach

may

be used

for

verification.

8

Continuing Growth

The

next

step

in

the

maturation

of

the

newly-born

program

is

qualification

for

the

problem

at

hand.

For

this,

a few examples

are

run

and

if

solved

satis-

factorily,

the

program

is

officially

issued.

The

qualification

process

does

not

stop

at

this

point

but

continues

indefinitely,

drawing

not

only from

experience

gained

through use

but

also

from

the

in-

teraction

between

the

writers

or

maintainers

of

the

program and

its

users.

The

interaction

between

user

and

writer

is

a

ma-

jor

factor

in

the

program's

growth.

Starting

with

a model

for

the

engineering

problem

at

hand,

the

user

and

writer

team examine

it.

They

decide

whether

the

program, as

written,

can

solve

the

problem.

This

process

of

user-writer

interaction

can

serve

to

qual-

ify

the

program

for

a

wider

set

of

problems,

or

dis-

qualify

it

for

certain

problems.

Continuing Qualification

The

program does

not

stop

evolving

after

the

qual-

ification

process

by

the

development team. A

con-

tinual

stream

of

techniques

for

refined

or

improved

analysis

calls

for

continual

reevaluation

of

the

com-

puter

programs

that

use

the

original

techniques.

This

process

of

selective

change and improvement

is

reminiscent

of

biological

evolution;

growth,

adjust-

ment,

atrophy,

specialization

and

breeding

are

all

present.

Biological Analogy

The

diagram

in

Figure

1

illustrates

this

biologi-

cal

analogy.

Let's

follow

the

evolution

of

this

particular

program. Version I

is

the

initial

stage

of a frame

analysis

program. Version

II

is

its

first

mutation

when

rigid

members

and end

releases

are

in-

troduced

and a

new

version

is

required.

With

the

ad-

vent

of

better

methodology, Version

III

is

developed.

This

negates

the

usefulness

of

Versions

I and

II.

New

requirements

imposed

by

the

Atomic Energy Commission

produce

yet

another

stage,

Version IV. However,

in

this

case

Version

III

may

still

be

functional

for

some

applications

and

therefore

is

not

discontinued.

In

time,

Version

IV

is

expanded upon

when

a

particu-

lar

group

in

the

company

requests

a

version

which

will

output

the

results

of

the

program

in

a format

to

suit

the

special

needs

of

that

group;

in

this

case,

a

specialized

version

is

written

for

that

group

while

the

original

Version

IV

is

kept

intact.

COMPUTERS

and

PEOPLE

for

December,

1974

Merger

with

Another

Program

Program Evolution

Figure 1

Then

again

another

group

may

request

that

two

types

of

analysis

be performed

in

one program, such

as

static

and dynamic

analyses.

To

accomplish

this,

it

may

be

necessary

to

combine

two

or

three

programs,

forming a

new

program.

If

the

company

leases

a

big-

ger

computer

that

allows

for

the

solving

of

more

joints

and members,

an

expanded

version

of

the

new

program

that

would

take

advantage

of

the

size

and

speed of

the

new

computer

is

written.

Thus,

the

computer program can

evolve

into

many

stages.

In

numerous

instances

issuing

the

first

version

of

a program

is

only

20

per

cent

of

the

to-

tal

work.

An

Example

of

Extensive Growth

A

typical

example

of

this

evolutionary

process

in

our

design

group

is

our

MASS

program

(~atrix

Analy-

sis

Seismic

Stresses).

First

written

in

1965,

it

performed dynamic

analysis

of

rigid

frames and

trus-

ses.

Since

that

time

MASS

II,

MASS

III,

MASS

IV,

and

MASS

V have been developed

to

incorporate

addi-

tional

features.

The

reactor

pressure

vessel

of

a

nuclear

plant

can be modeled

to

fit

into

the

MASS

program

(Figure

2).

A program

called

DYNAPIPE

evolved from

the

ongI-

nal

MASS

computer program as a

special

version

to

analyze

the

dynamic

behavior

of

the

piping

system.

For example,

when

a

pipe

break

is

postulated,

the

response

of

the

pipe

during

the

accident

can be

com-

COMPUTERS

and

PEOPLE

for

December,

1974

puted

by

this

program.

Just

as

the

first

~ffiSS

pro-

gram

was

continually

expanded, so

too

was

the

DYNA-

PIPE

program.

At

present

there

are

four

separate

versions.

A dynamic

analysis

program

created

independently

from

the

~ffiSS

family

(named

DSASS)

is

based

on

the

theory

that

slabs

and

walls

in

nuclear

plants

can

be modeled by a system

of

slabs

vibrating

in

their

own

plane

and

interconnected

by

translational

springs

representing

the

stiffness

of

the

walls.

Figure

3

shows

a

DSASS

model.

Guide

Tubes

Dynamic Model

of

Reactor

Pressure

Vessel

& Internals

Figure 2

Combining

the

MASS

IV

and

DSASS

programs produced

DYNAS,

which

is

used

to

perform

seismic

analysis

for

coupled

structures

in

a

nuclear

plant.

As

shown

in

Figure

4,

the

reactor

pressure

vessel

is

modeled

as

a system

of

discrete

masses and

weightless

members,

with

its

internals

connected

to

the

surrounding

slabs

and

walls.

SLSAP

is

a

modified

version

of

SAP

acquired

from

a

university;

it

is

a

general-purpose

finite-element

program.

It

is

used

to

investigate

framed

structures,

containment

structures

and

sacrificial

shields.

When

a

part

of

SLSAP

was

extracted

and combined

with

DYNA-

PIPE 4,

PIPSYS

was

born.

This program

was

instituted

to

perform

static

and dynamic

analysis

of

three

di-

mensional

piping

systems,

compute

the

combined

stress-

es,

and compare them

to

the

allowable

stresses

of

ap-

plicable

codes.

In

this

way

has

the

evolution

of

the

MASS

family

occurred

during

the

past

seven

years.

The

program

9

14

712-

12

642-

630

-

617

-

602-

2

592-

500

-

560

~~~~~m~~

Elevation

(Ft.)

DSASS

Model-Slabs and Shear

Walls

of

a Turbine-Auxiliary Building

Figure 3

4

3

has been expanded

many

times

from

its

original

size;

yet

it

still

possesses

the

capacity

to

grow

into

other

analysis

areas.

The Limitations

Although

expansion

is

an

important

step

in

achiev-

ing

a

versatile

computer program,

there

should

be a

limit

to

the

size

of

the

program

for

its

optimum

ef-

ficiency

at

an

engineering

design

office

(as

distinct

from a

software

development

firm).

Programs

develop-

ed

in

a

design

office

must remain

flexible

and

readi-

ly

modifiable.

Overly

large

programs which

involve

several

writers

tend

to

be

difficult

to

use,

diffi-

cult

to

maintain,

difficult

to

modify and

with

out-

puts,

difficult

to

interpret.

"Dinosaurs"

In

fact,

excessively

large

programs can run

the

risk

of

being

discarded

altogether

by

the

user

be-

cause

of

their

immense

size.

We

call

these

obese

algorithms

dinosaurs.

Nature,

like

some

programmers,

may

have

thought

the

bigger,

the

better,

when

dino-

saurs

were

produced.

But

when

flexibility

was

im-

portant,

dinosaurs

vanished

in

a

relatively

short

time.

Accept with Caution

More

important

than

the

limitation

of

computer

program

size

is

the

avoidance

of

blind

acceptance

of

the

computer's

output.

When

an

instructor

first

introduced

the

slide

rule

to

his

class

he

explained

that

the

simple

piece

of

wood

would

enable

them

to

divide,

multiply,

take

square

roots,

do

just

about

anything

except

add. But

he

then

cautioned

that

they

10

Slab

-

Shear

Wall

----------/'--------------

7

10

Space

Frame

~

6

19

18..----

....

5

17

24

9

8 4

16

23

3

Combined Building and

Reactor Pressure Vessel Dynamic Model

Figure 4

must

know

the

approximate

answer

since

the

slide

rule

does

not

give

the

decimal

point.

Although com-

puters

do

give

the

decimal

point,

the

instructor's

warning

is

still

true,

and

we

should

often

remind

ourselves

of

it.

Knowing

the

limitations

of

the

computer program

will

enhance

the

success

of

its

growth. 0

NOTICE

The plates for printing

TH

E

COM

PUTE

R D I RECTO

RY

AND

BUYERS' GUIDE, 1974, have been at

the

printer

and waiting

to

run on

his

presses since early September,

while

the

printer waits for the delivery of promised

pa-

per.

As

of

Nov.

13

the

printer was still waiting.

We

re-

gret very much this delay -which

is

outside

of

our pos-

sibilities of control.

To partially compensate for this delay, any purchaser

of

the

1974 directory may order a copy

of

the

1973 di-

rectory

at

half price ($9.25 instead of $18.50). Prepay-

ment

is

necessary.

Edmund

C.

Berkeley, Editor

COMPUTERS

and

PEOPLE

for

December.

1974

The

Radiation

from

Computers

Into

Everywhere

Neil

Macdonald, Survey

Editor

"Computers and People"

"Dear

#067-12-3948*:

You are in danger.

We

don't

know

who you are

but

the

government

does.

They've

got

your

number

and they're

not

the

only

ones.

"

1.

From

Society

of

Manufacturing Engineers

20501

Ford

Road

Dearborn,

MI

48128

How

industry

is

using

computer-aided

technology

to

obtain

good economic

results

will

be emphasized

at

the

third

Computer-Aided Design and Computer-Aided

Manufacturing Conference and

Exposition.

This

is

sponsored

by

the

Society

of

Manufacturing

Engineers

at

the

Hyatt

Regency O'Hare

Hotel

in

Chicago

Febru-

ary

10-13, 1975. Nine Conference

sessions

and dem-

onstrations

of computer-based equipment, systems, and

software

used

in

industrial

applications

will

com-

prise

CAD/CAM

III.

More

than

1,000

industrialists,

manufacturing

ex-

ecutives,

and

engineers

responsible

for

computer-

based

industrial

and

manufacturing

operations

are

expected

to

attend.

2.

From

Association

for

Computing Machinery

1133 Avenue

of

the Americas

New

York,

NY

10036

The

Association

for

Computing Machinery announces

a

new

quarterly,

ACM

TRANSACTIONS

ON

MATHEMATICAL

SOFTWARE

(TOMS).

The

first

issue

is

scheduled

for

March, 1975.

This

quarterly

will

publish

significant

research

and development

results

in

the

area

of

fundamental

mathematical

algorithms

and

associated

software

(com-

puter

programs).

Papers

and

other

items

will

have

natural

importance and

relevance

to

mathematical

soft-

ware and

they

will

support

significant

areas

of

com-

puter

application.

The

content

of

papers

in

those

areas

that

are

primarily

applications

will

be

rele-

vant

to

a

reasonably

wide

class

of

problems and

not

just

to

the

specific

considerations

that

motivated

the

paper.

There

will

be

increasing

emphasis

on

utilitarian

values

of

programs.

3.

From

David

L.

Emerick

Association

of

Computer Time-Sharing

Users

c/o Borg Warner Chemicals

Borg Warner Corporation

Parkersburg,

WV

26101

Computer

time-sharing

users

are

being

invited

to

join

a

new

non-profit

professional

association,

The

Association

of

Computer Time-Sharing

Users,

dubbed

"ACTSU."

The

stated

purpose

of

the

association

is

"the

evaluation,

comparison and improvement

of

the

COMPUTERS

and

PEOPLE

for

December,

1974

services

offered

by

the

time-sharing

industry."

The

Association

will

seek

to

help

time-sharing

users.

Comprehensive

industry

surveys

are

planned,

to

provide

members

with

comparisons and

evaluations

of

the

services

offered

by

time-sharing

companies.

Some

of

the

aspects

that

the

industry

surveys

will

cover

include:

processing

costs,

operating

charac-

teristics,

pre-programmed packages,

frequency

of

down-time,

quality

of

technical

support,

geographi-

cal

coverage,

liability

under

service

contracts,

and

quality

of

educational

materials.

Interested

persons

are

urged

to

write

ACTSU,

210

Fifth

Avenue,

New

York, N.Y. 10010

or

to

telephone

Hillel

Segal (212) 752-2000,

Ext.

8379,

for

addi-

tional

information

and membership

applications.

4.

From

Karen

A.

Duncan

Association

for

the Development

of

Computer-Based

Instructional Systems (ADCIS)

c/o

Office

of

Computer Resources

College

of

Dental Medicine

80

Barnes St.

Charleston,

SC

29401

The

1975

Winter

Conference

of

the

Association

for

the

Development

of

Computer-Based

Instructional

Sys-

tems

is

sponsored

by

this

college,

and

will

take

place

here

January

28-30, 1975.

Persons

interested

in

computer-assisted

instruc-

tion

or

computer-managed

instruction

are

invited.

This

conference

provides

a

professional

arena

for

the

sharing

of

research

findings,

operational

notes,

theories,

educational

strategies

and developments

regarding

CAl

and

CMI.

Commercial and noncommercial

groups

are

invited

to

discuss

their

release

policies

and

potential

ways

in

which courseware

may

be

shared.

5.

From

Civil Liberties Union

of

Massachusetts

3

Joy

St.

Boston, MA

02108

Dear u067-12-3948*:

You

are

in

danger.

We

don't

know

who

you

are,

but

the

government

does.

They've

got

your number and

they're

not

the

only

ones.

Your bank has

it,

and so does your

insurance

company,

your

credit

card

company, and even

the

Registry

of

(please

turn

to

page

29)

*This

is

a

fictitious

number.

11

The Computer Industry and Unionization

A.

A.

I mberman

I mberman and

De

Forest

Consultants to Management

209

South LaSalle St.

Chicago,

III.

60604

"The most painful way to

learn

about unionization

is

to lose

a National Labor Relations Board election. "

The

Computer

Field: Ripe for Unionization?

Can

the

computer

industry

grow and expand

in

pro-

duction

and

sales

without

experiencing

some

problems

with

labor?

The

rising

tide

of

strikes

(in

union-

ized

plants

producing

computer

hardware),

and

of

union

organizing

campaigns

in

the

non-union

plants,

is

some

indication

of

what

lies

ahead.

The

computer

industry

is

expected

to

chalk

up

new

performance

records

this

year,

with

shipments

ex-

ceeding

$10

billion.

A

10%

in~rease

is

forecast,

in

response

to

strong

demands

both

in

the

United

States

and

abroad.

Industry

revenues

are

currently

grow-

ing

even more

rapidly

than

shipments.

In

part,

this

differential

reflects

the

relatively

slow pace

of

trade-ins

of

third

generation

equipment

in

connec-

tion

with

the

purchase

of

new

computers.

Addition-

ally,

despite

stiff

borrowing

costs,

manufacturers

are

experiencing

a

higher

than

usual

percentage

of

outright

sales

and a

corresponding

decline

in

direct

leasing.

Helping

to

account

for

this

shift

are

gains

in

third-party

leasing

and

the

popularity

of

less

ex-

pensive

mini-computers.

The

computer

industry's

success

in

maintaining

impressive

growth

largely

reflects

an

impressive

ability

to

achieve

continuing

advances

in

hardware.

In

particular,

rapid

strides

in

semiconductor

tech-

nology have

led

to

significant

improvements

in

com-

puter

memory

capacities

and

operating

speeds

while,

at

the

same

time,

enabling

manufacturers

to

reduce

prices.

All

of

these

factors

indicate

eventual

la-

bor

union

activities.

212

Union Victories

In

the

last

four

years,

I have

analyzed

212 union

victories

in

representation

elections

in

a whole

va-

riety

of

industries.

Of

the

212 companies, 9 were

in

the

professional,

scientific

and

controlling

in-

struments

(manufacturing)

industry.

I found

that

timely

precautions

might have

prevented

most

of

these

union

victories.

How

the

trend

had gone

in

the

professional,

scientific

and

controlling

instru-

ments

industry

might be

judged

from

the

accompanying

table.

The

guideline

controls

have had

some

hamper-

ing

influence

on

union

activity.

As

a

result

of

our

comprehensive

study,

these

conclusions

became

evident:

1.

Most

elections

in

which wages and hours were

alleged

to

be

the

main

issue

(which

accounted

for

12

~.

A.

Imberman

did

his

undergraduate

work

at

New

York

Univ.,

and

his

graduate

work

at

Johns

Hopkins.

He

has

directed

the

Management Seminar

at

the

Univ.

of

Chicago and

Illinois

Institute

of

Technology

for

over

20

years.

He

has

written

widely,

and

is

an employee

relations

consultant

to

major companies,

including

Dupont, Avis,

Mc-

Graw

Edison,

Sears

Roebuck, and

many

others.

about

60

per

cent

of

the

elections),

were

won

by

the

unions

because

of

employee

ignorance

of

the

com-

petitive

situation

of

the

company. Employer

speeches

in

the

election

period

had

no

effect.

They were

too

late.

2.

Most

complaints

about working

conditions

(a

basic

cause

of

nearly

30

per

cent

of

the

elections)

were

well-founded

and

reflected

real

issues.

Elec-

tion

speeches

had

no

effect

here

either.

3.

Most

elections

in

which

arbitrary,

tyrannical

and

abusive

supervisors

were

specifically

named, were

truly

the

result

of

poor

supervisory

methods.

More

than

50

per

cent

of

the

elections

involved

his

is-

sue.

The

most

painful

way

to

learn

about

unionization

is

to

lose

a

National

Labor

Relations

Board

election.

Yet even

with

disputes

over money,

almost

all

labor

unrest

could

have been

quelled

before

unions took

control

of

the

work

force.

How?

By

setting

up

a

two-way communications system, and

training

super-

visors

in

modern management methods.

Failure

to

Listen

to

Employees

A

typical

example of

this

lack

of

two-way

commu-

nications

--

this

failure

to

listen

to

employees

--

taken

from

39

of

these

212

election

situations,

is

the

case

history

of

a

single

department

in

an

East

Coast

plant

in

this

industry

(professional,

scien-

tific

and

controlling

instruments

--

manufacturing).

The

department

had

developed

troubles

that

led

to

an

election.

This

was

a

basic

department

on

which

other

pro-

duction

departments

depended. Within

the

past

year

its

quality

of work had

deteriorated.

Production

schedules

seemed

too

often

to

be

out

of

gear

with

the

rest

of

the

plant.

Union

organization

in

the

COMPUTERS

and

PEOPLE

for

December,

1974

s

s

Professional, Scientific and Controlling

I nstruments (Manufacturing)

Fiscal

Number

of

NLRB

Number

Won

Percent

Won

Year

Elections

Held

By

Unions

By

Unions

1973 67

35

52.2

1972 62

29

46.7

1971

46

14

30.4

1970

51

17

33.3

1969 62

26

41.9

1968 68

35

51.4

1967 48

21

43.7

1966 59

31

52.5

Source:

National

Labor

Relations

Board

Reports.

plant

had been

led

by employees from

this

basic

de-

partment.

The

plant

manager had

talked

with

the

department

supervisor

a number of

times.

The

answer

was

more

or

less

the

same: employees

in

the

department

were

quarrelling,

there

were

bitter

disputes

over

who

was

to

be

favored

with

overtime

and

Saturday

work, squab-

bles

over

department

seniority,

some

hard

feeling

over

wage

differentials,

and

general

distrust

of

management.

None

of

this

had been

true

before.

What

was

worse,

there

was

nothing

that

management

could

put

its

finger

on,

to

correct,

even

after

the

~

election.

The Supervisor's Health

Called

in

to

advise

the

company

on

how

to

deal

with

the

growing

absenteeism

and

turnover

in

the

plant,

I

elicited

some

interesting

information

from

the

employees

in

that

department

which went

far

to

explain

the

election

result.

After

a number

of

weeks

of

interviews,

it

seemed

to

me

that

the

trouble

seemed

to

revolve

around

the

department

supervisor

himself.

One

of

the

troubles

mentioned by

all

employees

in

the

department

was

the

harshness

of

the

supervisor.

He

was

unreasonable,

tyrannical,

arbitrary,

hard

to

get

along

with.

Since

he had been

with

the

company

for

about

15

years,

and

the

complaints

were

recent

in

origin,

I

decided

to

talk

with

him.

Heat

and

Cold

It

was

discovered

that

he had

arthritis,

and I

recommended

that

the

supervisor

be

sent

to

a

physi-

cian.

Since

his

department

was

in

a

colder

part

of

the

plant,

his

arthritic

pain

was

accentuated

by

lack

of

heat.

This

affected

his

whole

disposition

and

actions

towards

his

employees.

Brought

to

the

company's

attention,

a

new

fore-

man

was

assigned

to

that

department.

The

older

fore-

man

was

transferred

to

another

department

where

room

temperatures

were

much

higher.

Within

three

months,

the

trouble

in

the

basic

department

cleared

up. The

old

foreman

--

in

the

new

"hot"

department

--

was

like

a changed man. But

the

company had

already

lost

the

election.

No

amount

of

veiled

promises

or

threats

in

speech-

es

to

employees

during

the

election

period

could

have

any

effect

on

this

situation.

Only

careful

listen-

ing

to

the

employees

to

uncover

the

roots

of

the

dis-

content

would have had any

beneficial

effect.

COMPUTERS

and

PEOPLE

for

December,

1974

Opinion

Polls

Hundreds

of

other

managements

try

questionnaires,

polls,

"employee

audits,"

suggestion

boxes,

etc.,

in

their

search

for

easy

information

about

worker

dis-

content.

Yet

complaints

remain.

For example,

of

the

212

election

situations

in-

vestigated,

some

49

were

similar

to

the

case

of

a

Midwest company

in

this

industry.

The company

tried

an

"opinion

poll"

questionnaire

as

a

possible

solu-

tion

for

its

employee

gripes,

even

installing

sug-

gestion

boxes.

These

suggestion

boxes were

design-

ed

to

give

employees a chance

to

write

anonymously

about

pet

gripes.

The

plan

met

with

disappointment.

The

questionnaire

uncovered

only

general

worker

com-

plaints;

little

of

it

was

news

to

management and

none of

it

was

of

any

help

in

finding

or

pinpointing

solutions.

The

suggestion

box

was

crammed

with

sil-

ly,

unconstructive

criticism,

sometimes

quite

vic-

ious.

Lack

of Explanation

The

problem

of

still

another

Southwest company

in

this

industry

comes

to

mind.

Difficulties

arose

when

this

plant

mushroomed from a

small

operation

to

that

of

a

larger

plant.

Where

the

same

executives

had

experienced

no

labor

unrest

when

the

facility

was

small,

they

had an

alarming

amount of

it

as

the

plant

expanded.

Despite

an

elaborate

"employee

au-

dit"

and

questionnaire,

an

election

petition

was

filed

with

the

NLRB

and

voting

was

held

soon

after-

wards.

The

company

lost

by a narrow margin.

Wage

rates

were

the

alleged

reason.

Called

in

by

the

parent

corporation

to

make

a

detailed

investigation,

I soon uncovered

the

fact

that

most of

the

difficulties

stemmed from

rapid

changes

in

production

methods

coupled

with

intol-

erant,

abusive

supervisors.

These

production

chan-

ges of

course,

were

necessary

because

of

changes

in

design,

but

nobody

bothered

explaining

these

things

to

employees. They were merely

switched

from one

production

method

to

another,

and

since

they

were

being

paid

good

rates,

management

felt

that

the

em-

ployees

merely had

to

comply

with

orders.

Resistance,

to

Change

Unfortunately,

most

semi-skilled

workers,

after

learning

one

or

two

operations,

become

frustrated

when

those

operations

are

changed

without

proper

explanation

of

the

cause

and

without

the

help

of

patient,

trained

foremen.

This

frustration

works

itself

out

in

various

complaints

about

many

things,

and

eventually,

if

enough employees

in

the

plant

feel

the

same

way,

there

is

a blow-up.

After

long

experience,

and

careful

evaluation

of

the

49

similar

instances,

I

concluded

that

paper-

and-pencil

questionnaires

and

suggestion

boxes

for

blue

collar

workers

cannot

take

the

place

of

man-

to-man

contact

in

the

plant.

A

systematic

procedure

recognized

as

representing

top

management, must be

used

to

listen

regularly

to

employees, and

to

act

upon

the

gripes.

Too Simple a Prescription?

So

simple

and

elementary

is

this

prescription

that

every

reader

who

manages a

factory

will

immed-

iately

snort

in

derision.

Every employer

in

this

industry

believes

that

he

listens

to

his

employees

and

that

his

foremen

are

well

trained.

13

Unfortunately,

most

employers,

with

the

utmost

good

will

in

the

world,

do

not

have

the

patience

to

listen,

or

the

time,

or

the

systematic

machinery.

They

therefore

depend upon

personnel

department

peo-

ple

and more

particularly,

on

foremen and

line

super-

visors

to

listen.

Very few

of

these

people

know

how

to

listen

"with

the

third

ear,"

a

talent

which can

be

developed

by

training.

Moreover,

very

few

of

these

management

people

can

be depended upon

to

give

management a

straightfor-

ward

report

on

what employees

are

saying

--

not

that

personnel

department

people,

foremen,

line

supervi-

sors,

et

al.

wish

to

deceive

the

front

office.

On

the

contrary,

most

often

they

are

wholeheartedly

on

management's

side.

But most

of

these

people

(consciously

or

uncon-

sciously)

report

only

what

they

LIKE

to

report,

or

report

only

what

THEY

think

is

important.

Often

this

is

not

the

whole

story,

even

if

employees gave them

the

whole

story,

which

they

rarely

do.

Listening

to

employees

is

also

a

way

for

employ-

ers

to

forestall

union

organizers

who

roam

smaller

communities of

every

state,

seeking

plants

to

organ-

ize.

Once

organized,

union

officials

believe,

the

employees

are

locked

into

the

union

for

years

and

years.

How

often

does a

decertification

election

succeed?

Not

too

often.

Union Tactics

One

common

attack

by

union

organizers

is

to

visit

employees

in

their

homes

and promise them

all

sorts

of

pie

in

the

sky.

The

organizers

don't

have

to

deliver

anything.

Under

the

law

they

can promise

anything

they

like.

If

their

promises

don't

work

out,

it's

the

selfish

employer's

fault.

And

the

trouble

continues.

What

can employers do?

For

this

sort

of

common

tactic,

there

is

only

one weapon:

LISTEN

TO

THE

EMPLOYEE

and

train

your

supervisors.

There

is

no

other

way

that

an employer can

find

out

just

what

is

troubling

his

employees,

or

what he must

do

to

overcome

the

difficulties

on

which union

organizers

build.

Center

of

Trouble on 3rd

or

4th

Floor

Another example, from

about

21

similar

cases

cov-

ered

in

this

study,

might be

of

interest

here.

It

was

a

California

company

in

this

industry.

The

hot-

bed

of

union

sentiment

seemed

to

be

centered

on

the

third

of

the

four

floors

of

the

plant.

There seemed

no

obvious

reason,

yet

judicious

and

cautious

inter-

viewing

of

employees

throughout

the

plant

led

a

skil-

led

consultant

interviewer

to

uncover

some

interest-

ing

facts.

No

Refrigerator

The

first,

second, and

fourth

floors

had

small

refrigerators

in

the

employee's

restrooms.

The

wo-

men

brought

their

lunches

and

deposited

the

bags

in

the

refrigerators.

But

the

women

on

the

third

floor

had

no

refrigerator.

Theirs

had broken

down

a

year

ago, and had

never

been

repaired.

They used

the

second

or

fourth

floor

refrigerators.

By

so

doing,

their

lunch bags were

often

pushed

aside

by

the

em-

ployees

of

the

other

floors;

sometimes,

if

there

wasn't

enough room,

the

third

floor

lunch bags were

removed from

the

refrigerators

entirely.

They had

complained

to

their

foremen over and

over,

but

the

foremen were

too

busy

to

raise

the

question

with

the

plant

manager.

14

Now

it

is

difficult

to

believe

that

anything

so

trivial

would

heat

up

a group of

about

80 employees,

yet

such

was

the

fact.

From

this

small

beginning,

festering

for

about

a

year,

80 employees became

dis-

satisfied

with

everything

--

the

ventilation

in

the

plant,

the

location

of

the

overhead

lights,

the

treatment

they

received

from

supervisors,

wage

rates,

etc.

Everything

the

company

did,

was bad, bad, bad.

From

this

humble

beginning,

employee

dissatisfaction

spread

through

the

plant.

Not a

single

foreman had

tried

to

deal

with

the

situation,

or

reported

it

higher

up.

It

took seven weeks

of

careful

interviewing,

care-

ful

listening,

and

running

down

of

all

clues,

to

un-

cover

this

basic

trivial

cause.

Installation

of a

$80

renovated

refrigerator

in

the

third

floor

rest-

room

cleared

up

most

of

the

difficulty.

Could

the

company have uncovered

clues

indicat-

ing

that

lack

of

a

refrigerator

to

hold

employee

lunch bags

on

the

third

floor

was

causing

a

severe

shift

in

employee

sentiment?

Without foremen

train-

ed

to

listen

and

report,

the

only

other

alternative

would be

to

talk

to

every

employee

in

the

plant.

Troublesome

as

that

might have been,

it

doesn't

com-

pare

with

the

subsequent

trouble

(and

expense)

of

dealing

with

a

union.

"Trained Ear" Gets Results

It

takes

special

training

and

special

techniques

to

invite

and

enjoy

the

confidence

of

employees.

(Here and

there

throughout

the

country

are

some

skilled

consultants,

who

specialize

in

such

labor-

management

techniques.

Usually,

these

men

are

con-

nected

with

a

college

or

university.

Interested

company

executives

might

secure

a

list

of

recommen-

ded names

by

writing

to

the

University

Research Cen-

ter,

121

West

Adams,

Chicago,

Illinois

60603.)

Sudden Labor Trouble

Here

is

another

case

from our

study

which some-

what

parallels

32

others.

About 300

men

were

in-

volved.

A

70-year-old

company

in

this

industry,

with

no

labor

or

union

trouble

history,

suddenly

found

itself

facing

an

organization

drive.

The

com-

pany

wage

scale

was

in

line

with

that

of

the

com-

munity

--

yet

suddenly

men

in

the

plant

seemed

to

be swallowing

all

sorts

of union

organizer

promises

--

something

they

had

never

done

before.

Why

the

sudden

labor

trouble?

In

this

small

town,

no

other

company had a

union,

yet

somehow

the

union seemed

to

have

gathered

streng-

th

in

this

plant.

The

company

won

the

election

by

a

very

slim

majority,

and

then

as

a

result

of

unfair

labor

charges,

another

election

was

ordered.

How-

ever,

in

the

interim,

the

company had used

an

out-

side

consultant

who

did

nothing

but

interview

and

listen

to

employees, and

provide

training

for

super-

visors.

Hearing Loss?

The

basis

of

his

findings

was

the

noise

in

one

department

that

caused a number

of

employees

to

fear

hearing

loss.

This

was

mainly

a

reaction

to

the

current

publicity

about

OSHA

legislation,

on

which

the

union

organizer

capitalized.

Those

em-

ployees

who

complained had

merely

been

given

uncom-

fortable

ear

plugs

without

explanation

--

a

sort

of

impersonal

treatment

which

many

resented.

This

re-

sentment cropped

up

in

complaints

about

many

other

working

conditions

--

formerly

accepted

as

a

matter

(please

turn

to

page

25)

COMPUTERS

and

PEOPLE

for

December,

1974

i

r

i-

r.

I,

..

·10

Changing Technology and

Medical

Speciali,zation

Ray

M.

Antley,

M.D.

Department

of

Medical Genetics

Indiana

Univ.

School

of

Medicine

Indianapolis,

Ind.

46202

and

Mary

Ann

Antley, M.A.

Department

of

English

Indiana Univ.-Purdue

Univ.

at

Indianapolis

Indianapolis,

Ind.

46202

"The process

of

data collecting

by

computers will cause interaction

between the technology and the illness which

it

is

designed to

diag-

nose and treat, and these changes will result in computers perform-

ing

not

old jobs better

but

completely

new

jobs. "

Twenty-Five Years

of

Computers

in Medicine

Twenty-five

years

of

computers,

and computers

in

medicine,

bring

us

to

the

threshold

of

their

acceler-

ated

introduction

into

clinical

medicine.

To

date,

there

has been an

opportunistic

application

of

com-

puters

to

medicine.

This

unstructured

approach

is

about

to

change, however,

(1)

because

of

the

techno-

logical

advances which have been

achieved

through

computer

research

and

are

ready

for

utilization,

and

(2)

because

of

the

developments

in

concepts

of

com-

prehensive

health

care

and

its

delivery.

People

who

have had

little

or

no

care,

people

who

have had

par-

tial

care

through

some

form

of

insurance,

and

people

who

have been

able

to

afford

total

care,

are

collec-

tively,

either

through

insurance,

through

unions,

or

through

government

health

programs, demanding compre-

hensive

health

care

at

moderate

cost

to

modest

cost.

The

dual

problems

of

obtaining

manpower

to

staff

such

a

health

service

and

of

keeping

the

total

cost

of

that

service

as

low

as

possible,

lend

themselves

to

solutions

through

technology.

Evolution

of

Technology

The

developments

in

technology

act

in

concert

with

the

recognition

of

the

need

for

expanded

medical

care.

They

are

compounded

by

the

existing

doctor

shortage.

These powerful

interacting

forces

will

structure

the

future

application

and development

of

automation

in

medicine.

These

forces

have

thus

far

tended

to

chan-

nel

technological

application

towards

assisting

the

primary

physician

in

the

delivery

of

health

care.

Furthermore,

the

evolution

of

technology

is

such

that

this

assisting

phase

will

be

transient,

for

pro-

grams

are

already

being

developed

which

will

do

much

of what

the

physician

does

now.

Finally,

the

process

of

data

collecting

by computers

will

cause

interac-

tions

between

the

technology

and

the

substrate

of

ill-

ness

which

it

is

designed

to

diagnose

and

treat,

an V

these

changes

will

result

in

computers

performing

no

old

jobs

better,

but

completely

new

jobs

•

_____

This

article

seeks

to

explore

the

evolution

of

machines

in

medicine

and

to

discuss

some

of

the

prob-

lems

inherent

in

change.

We

have

divided

the

evolu-

tion

in

medical

technology

into

three

phases

based

upon

inferences

about

the

role

of

the

physician

in

relationship

to

his

machines and

his

patients.

Phase

I

is

called

the

assisting

phase;

Phase

II,

the

auto-

mated

phase;

and Phase

III,

the

environmental

control

phase.

After

each

phase

we

have

attempted

to

indi-

COMPUTERS

and

PEOPLE

for

December,

1974

cate

some

of

the

consequences

of

the

different

stages.

It

should

be

apparent

that

different

lev-

els

of

the

progression

are

occurring

simultaneously

and

that

there

is

no

sharp

demarkation

between

phas-

es.

What

might

not

be

apparent

is

that

Phase

II

should

be a

reality

in

the

next

decade

and

that

Phase

III

will

probably

be

the

dominant form

of

medical

practice

within

the

career

of

present

day

medical

students.

Phase I -

The

Assisting Phase

The

introduction

of

technology

into

medicine

has

been

at

such a

rate

that

each

new

machine has been

seen as an

individual

innovation

which

helps

with

a

particular

diagnostic

or

treatment

function.

When

a

new

machine

appears,

it

is

tested

and

incorpora-

ted

into

the

doctor's

routine

on

the

basis

of

its

utility

and

efficiency.

This

random

incorporation

of

such

innovations

as

the

electrocardiogram

(ECG),

the

electroencephalogram

(EEG),

the

fiber

gastro-

scope,

the

heart-lung

machine and

patient

monitor-

ing

equipment

throughout

all

fields

of

medicine

has

obscured

the

collective

impact

on

medical

practice

of

machines,

i.e.,

the

channelling

of

medical

prac-

tice

toward

technological

specialties.

The

phenom-

ena

of

medical

specialization

has been

largely

at-

tributed

to

an

increased

work load and

to

the

in-

formation

explosion.

This

hypothesis,

however,

misses

the

important

relationship

between

the

de-

velopment

of

a machine and

the

development

of

in-

formation

and a

specialty

as

a

direct

result

of

that

machine.

The

Electrocardiogram and

the

Cardiologist

For

example,

the

introduction

of

the

electrocar-

diogram

did

much

to

strengthen

the

cardiologist

--

who

was

previously

solely

organ

based.

The

ECG

established

scientific

credibility

to

the

diagnosis

and

treatment

of

myocardial

infarction

syndrome.

Second, a

literature

developed

about

the

technical

aspects

of

the

ECG

machine

itself,

followed

by

a

literal

explosion

of

information

about

ECG

diagnosis.

Each

diagnosis

has

usually

been enhanced

by

reports

related

to

prognosis

and

treatment

to

such an

extent

that

it

becomes a

full

time

job

keeping

abreast

of

the

publications

in

this

field

alone.

Although more has gone

into

the

development

of

cardiology

than

the

ECG,

it

is

hard

to

conceive

of

that

specialty

without

it.

From

this

beginning

there

has been a

proliferation

of

other

innovations:

15

the

intensive

care

units,

specialists

in

intensive

care,

respiration

therapists,

second

generation

ma-

chines

like

pace makers and

cardiac

monitors.

As

technology

provides

equipment

to

investigate

a

par-

ticular

organ system

in

depth,

a

new

information

ex-

plosion

and

subsequent

specialty

frequently

develops.

Thus,

the

new

technology's

effects

have been

to

im-

prove medicine

through

specialization,

to

increase

its

complexity,

and

to

heighten

its

intellectual

stimulation

related

to

content.

New Innovations

in

Machines

Relatively

recent

innovated

machines

are

in

the

laboratory,

the

nursery,

the

intensive

care

unit,

the

emergency

room

and

the

operating

room. They

pervade

the

care

of

the

critically

ill

inpatient.

They

structure

the

clinic's

business

procedures

if

not

influencing

the

individual

doctor's

practice

pro-

cedures.

It

is

significant

that,

in

addition

to

helping

the

doctor

do

what he

did

before,

these

machines

do

jobs

which

really

cannot

be

equaled

by

the

physician

alone.

Increasingly,

machines

are

molding

the

way

in

which medicine

is

practiced,

even

to

the

extent

of

having

influence

over

the

formulation

of

medical

ethics

in

regard

to

the

definition

of

death.

This

same

technology,

by

its

very

existence,

raises

ex-

tremely

perplexing

questions

about

who

will

die.

Dependence

of

the

Doctor

on Machines

The

introduction

of

technology

into

medicine has

several

effects

upon

the

doctor.

One

is

that

in

routine

practice,

the

doctor

has

unconsciously

be-

come

dependent

on

the

laboratory,

x-ray,

drugs

pack-

aged

by

automated systems and

various

electronic

in-

struments

to

such

an

extent

that

the

practice

of

medicine would be

starkly

different

if

they

were

suddenly removed.

By

examining

the

prospects

of

their

removal, one

is

able

to

develop

some

feel

for

the

amount of

evolution

they

have

induced.

Also, a

forward

anticipation

of

comparable change

in

the

next

ten

years

to

what

we

have had

in

the

past

25

years

is

helpful

in

grasping

the

magnitude and

rates

of

change

we

will

experience.

Changes in Medical Practice

Thus,

these

machines, which have been

readily

ac-

quired

and used

by

the

medical

profession

to

help

them perform

tasks

and

detect

disease

more

quickly

and

accurately,

have

subtly

effected

a change

in

the

environment

of

medical

practice

in

the

twentieth

cen-

tury.

A change

in

the

environment

is

rarely

only

additive

or

linear.

You

seldom,

if

ever,

have an

old

environment

PLUS

a

new

element,

such as a

printing

press

or

an

ele~tric

plug;

what you have

is

a

totally

new

envIronment. l

From

the

individual

family

doctor

of

the

early

1900's

who

treated

a

patient

for

all

his

illnesses,

practice

has evolved

in

a

predictable

technological

form

into

a system

in

which

many

specialists

treat

specific

diseases

that

manifest

themselves

in

the

same

patient.

This

evolution

from

patient-centered

to

disease-centered

treatment

has

taken

place

grad-

ually

over

the

past

70

years.

The

rate

of

change

has been slow enough

to

allow

for

the

training

of

new

physicians

in

the

new

specialties

created

by an

expanding medical

technology.

The

very

real

changes

in

the

role

of

the

physician

and

the

system

of

health

delivery

that

have

occurred

have been

effected

with

relatively

little

trauma

to

the

earlier

physicians

16

who

have been

able

to

continue

their

roles

as

gen-

eralists

in

an

increasingly

specialized

world.

Med-

icine

has

adjusted

to

the

presence

of

technology

and

now

reflects

its

qualities

so smoothly and so

com-

pletely

that

it

requires

a

detached

view

to

even

rec-

ognize

the

great

change

in

orientation

that

has oc-

curred.

Phase II -

The

Automated

Phase

Now,

into

this

seemingly

stabilized

system of

health

delivery

care

based

on

scientific,

technolo-

gical

specialization,

a

different

sort

of

machine

is

being

introduced.

Its

long term

effects

will

re-

sult

in

another

major change

in

the

environment

of

medical

practice.

These

are

automated machines

that

are

capable

of

replacing

those

functions

which have

so

far

been performed only

by

the

physician

himself.

Because

the

physician

has

become

conditioned

to

ac-

cepting

technology

in

medicine,

these

more

sophisti-

cated

instruments

have been

introduced

without

arous-

ing

questions

about

their

long-term

implications,

or,

more

often,

without

even a

recognition

of

what

these

implications

are.

A

computer-acquired

history

and a programmed phy-

sical

examination

are

today almost

existing

reali-

ties.

2

,3,4,5

Machines which

will

perform

a

physical

examination

by

analyzing

data

coming

directly

from

self-propelled

sensing

devices

are

projected

at

this

time.

Once

the

software

has been

developed,

the

retrieval

of

data

from medical

records,

along

with

results

from automated

clinical

laboratories,

and

the

integration

of

these

data

for

processing

by

a computer

will

be

simple

procedures.

The

import

from

the

capabilities

of

these

existing

and

realis-

tically

projected

machines

is

that

they

are,

and

will

be,

able

to

do

what

the

physician

now

does.

Here

again,

as

in

1900,

the

role

of

the

physician-

will

be

affected

and

the

present

system

of

health

delivery

will

restructure

itself

around a

new

con-

cept

in

patient

care.

But

this

change

will

be un-

like

the

gradual

readjustment

that

accrued

when

medi-

cine

entered

the

technological

era.

Because

of

the

productive

capacity

of

our

electronics

industry,

the

lead

time between

the

development

of

an automated

process

in

health

delivery

care

and

the

moment

when

widespread change

occurs

will

be

short,

that

is

years,

not

decades.

The

resulting

effect

on

the

physician

will

be one

of

frequent

and

significant

change

in

his

role.

Trained

as

a

specialist

in

disease

detection

he

will

be

confronted

with

ma-

chines

that

are

equally

specialized,

that

can

also

differentiate

diseases,

and

that

will

bring

to

this

process

a

degree

of

efficiency

and a

capability

for

information

storage

far

beyond

human

abilities.

"Future

Shock"

for

the

Physician

Thus, as

in

so

many

other

fields

that

have

be-

come

automated,

the

physician

will

experience

not

.the

introduction

of

new

techniques

which can

co-

exist

with

his

present

job,

but

the

actual

replac~

ment

of

much

of

his

present

function

by

a machine.

The

years

of

training

in

scientific

disease

detec-

'

tion

and

the

old

methods of

specialist-based

health

care

delivery

will

have been made,

in

large

measure,

obsolete.

He

will,

in

fact,

experience

"future

shock".

Future

shock

occurs

when

you

are

confronted

by

the

fact

that

the

world you were

educated

to

believe

in

doesn't

exist.

Your images

of

re-

ality

are

apparitions

that

disappear

on

con-

tact.

There

are

several

ways

of

responding

to

such a

condition,

one

of

which

is

to

with-

COMPUTERS

and

PEOPLE

for

December,

1974

.

v

draw and

allow

oneself

to

be overcome by a

sense

of

impotence.

More

commonly, one con-

tinues

to

act

as

if

his

apparitions

were

sub-

stantial,

relentlessly

pursuing

a

course

of

action

that

he

knows

will

fail

him.l

A

third

reaction

to

being

suddenly exposed

to

a

new

environment

is

to

rationally

evaluate

your

situ-

ation

and

adjust

to

the

demands

of

the

new

milieu.

In

order

to

make

this

reorientation,

the

physician

will

first

need

to

recognize

that

there

is

a

new

environment.

Then

he

will

need

to

have

the

flexi-

bility

necessary

to

adapt

to

the

new

roles

which

the

doctor

will

fulfill

in

a world

of

automated

medicine.

Some

of

these

roles

will

be

in

the

new

specialties,

created

by

the

machines once more;

others

will

be

in

computer

administration

and programming;

many

more

will

be

connected

with

counseling

patients

and

re-

sponding

to

their

illnesses

with

empathy. There

are

many

variations

within

these

categories.

The

important

thing

is

for

the

physician

today

to

recog-

nize

the

change which

is

going

on

in

medicine

and

automation

so

that

he

will

be

prepared

for

the

new

demands which

will

follow.

Phase

III

-

The

Environmental

Control

Phase

The

development

of

machines which

are

able

to

replace

hitherto

unique

diagnostic

functions

of

the

physician

is

only

the

intermediary

phase

in

the

evo-

lution

of

machines

in

medicine.

Rapidly

following

this

era

will

come

the

stage

in

which

heuristic

com-

puters

interact

to

develop

strategies

for

medical

care

which

are

peculiarly

suitable

to

the

abilities

of

technology

rather

than

to

human

organization.

Changes

in

information

about

the

illness

and

the

alterations

in

disease

caused

by

the

automation

\~ill

result

in

changes

not

only

in

functions

related

to

diagnosis

and

treatment,

but

also

in

the

goals

of

medical

care.

Perhaps

the

first

goal

of

automated

medical

care

should

be

to

treat

a

sick

person,

and

this

would

shift

to

prevention

of

illness,

and

in

time

this

might change

to

maintaining

an

equilibrium

between

birth

and

death

rates.

These

goals

will

undoubtedly

be

altered

from

time

to

time

by

the

needs

of

society.

At

this

point,

the

computer

may

be

assigned

a

task

and

the

assigner

not

know

how

the

computer

arrived

at

an answer,

but

only

that

it

arrived

at

a

carefully

planned

answer,

perhaps

making

calculations

and

tri-

als

that

it

would

take

an

individual

100

or

more

years

to

duplicate.

This

later

phase

of

automation

will

be

characterized

by

two

new

facets

as

described

by John

Diebold:

(1)

Technological

advances

are

self-gener-

ating.

"No

longer

must

technological

progress

wait

on

the

next

individual

scientific

discovery:

tech-

nology

itself

is

pushing

research

into

new

discov-

eries

and

new

dimensions."

This

process

will

produce

whole

new

sets

of

com-

puters

which

will

acquire,

store,

and

process

infor-

mation which

only

the

machine

through

its

own

pro-

cesses

evaluated

as

being

relevant

to

treatment

and

health

to

begin

wi

th

--

wholly

a machine

idea.

(2)

Computers

rather

than

being

given

a

defined

task

to

perform,

can be

assigned

a

goal,

the

computer

at

this

highest

point

of

machine

intelligence

will

pursue

a

goal

with

minimum

instruction,

devising

its

own

stra-

tegy

in

pursuit

of

that

goal.

6 _

Direction Determined

by

the

Machine

In

this

final

stage,

machines

will

again

be

re-

sponsible

for

a changed environment

in

medicine,

but

this

time

the

change

will

occur

not

through

the

re-

structuring

of

the

present

system around a newly

in-

COMPUTERS

and

PEOPLE

for

December,

1974

troduced

mechanism,

but

under

the

external

direction

of

the

machine

itself.

For example,

in

a world whose

goals

are

a

healthy

population,

the

emphasis

of

medi-

cine

in

the

future

may

well

be

on

prevention

rather

than

diagnosis

and

treatment.

With

the

precedent

for

using

machines

in

problem

solving

situations

firmly

established,

and

with

the

concurrent

develop-

ment

of

machines

that

can

devise

strategy

in

the

pursuit

of

goals,6

it

is

predictable

that

these

com-

puters

will

be used

in

problem

solving

situations

in

health

delivery.

We

predict

that

their

recommended

approaches

to

health

delivery

problems

will

influ-

ence

the

direction

that

medicine

takes

in

the

next

decade.

Thus

far,

the

three

phases

of

the

evolution

of

machines

in

medicine

have been

delineated.

It

may

be seen

that

the

first

phase,

in

which machines

as~

sist

the

physician,

is

evolving

into

Phase

II,

in

which machines

are

designed

to

replace

functions

which

heretofore

had been unique

to

the

role

of

the

physician.

It

may

also

be seen

that

this

second

phase

is

only

intermediary

in

a

progression

that

will

result

in

machines

themselves

being

used

to

devise

new

approaches

to

health

care.

Thus,

tech-

nology

continues

to

shape

the

direction

of

medical

practice

through

its

increasing

incorporation

into

diagnosis

and

treatment.

The

development

of

new

skills

by

physicians

in

response

to

technical

ad-

vancement

will

be

necessary,

while

appropriate

edu-

cation

in

medical

school

should

facilitate

this

a-

daptive

development.

Culture

Influencing

the

Physician

The

preceding

discussion

has

demonstrated

that

the

physician

is

influenced

both

subtly

and

overtly

by

the

culture

in

which he

lives.

At

the

present

time

that

culture

is

technological,

and

both

the

practice

of

medicine

and

the

job

of

the

physician

are

inseparably

chained

to

that

technology.

Tech-

nological

advances,

such

as

the

ECG,

which have

cre-

ated

new

jobs

and

new

fields

of

medicine

are

exam-

ples

of

this

interdependency

upon

technology

in

medi-

cine

today.

In

like

manner,

it

may

be assumed

that

new

machines

will

continue

to

structure

new

special-

ties

and

define

new

jobs

in

the

future.

Therefore,

because

of

what has happened

in

the

past

twenty

years

and

is

continuing,

predictions

can be

made

about

the

effect

of

technological

ad-

vances

on

the

role

of

the

physician

in

the

future.

Finally,

with

these

changes

in

mind

it

is

possible

to

suggest

some

changes

in

the

present

medical

edu-

cation

system

that

will

be

necessary

in

order

to

prepare

physicians

to

practice

medicine

in

an

in-

creasingly

automated

environment.

Changes in Medical

Education

Among

the

possibilities

that

cluster

around

the

role

of

the

physician

in

the

late

twentieth

century,

two

large

areas

may

be emphasized.

Some

doctors

will

need

to

become advanced

technologists

in

order

to

conceive,

design,

operate,

and

understand

the

new

generations

of

machines.

Secondly,

with

the

increased

use

of

machines

for

technical

functions,

many

physicians

will

be

called

upon

to

help

the

pa-

tient

understand

the

technical

findings

of

his

exami-

nation

and

to

facilitate

the

constructive

use

of

this

information

in

the

patient's

life.

The

genetic

counselor

already

serves

this

function

today,

helping

the

counselee

to

incorporate

the

information

that

he

has

acquired

in

the

counseling

session

for

construc-

tive

planning;

while

the

thanoto!ogist

works

with

terminally

ill

patients

as

they

deal

with

the

know-

ledge

of

thei

r

approachi

ng

dea

tli·

r I 25)

p

case

turn to

page

17

WATERGATE

SOUTH

Nancy

A.

Miller

16 Ober Road

Princeton, NJ 08540

"In Fayetteville, Arkansas, I

was

working with Vietnam Veterans Against the

War.

One

of

the veterans there, William

W.

Lemmer, turned

out

to be an FBI informer .

...

We

broke

his cover and exposed him.

He

immediately suggested he become a double agent on the FBI."

Introduction

Investigations

by

the

press,

Congressional

com-

mittees,

and

the

courts

have

slowly

revealed

the

nature

of

"Watergate

East"

and

"Watergate

West."

The

first

refers

to

efforts

to

undermine Democratic

Party

presidential

candidates

and

the

subsequent

cover-up;

the

second,

Watergate

West,

to

the

viola-

tion

of

the

rights

of

Dr. Lewis

Fielding

in

an

at-

tempt

to

seal

off

leaks.

The

inter-relationship

be-

tween

Watergates

East

and

West

is

rather

ambiguous

without

an

examination

of

"Watergate

South,"

which

has been

almost

totally

overlooked.

The

evidence

supporting

the

hypothesis

that

there

was

a

southern

extension

is

scattered

through

Ervin

Committee

tes-

timony,

press

statements,

affidavits

and

depositions

filed

in

several

courts,

and

other

statements

by

some

of

those

involved.

Many

clues

or

references

may

still

lie

undetected,

but

a

consistent

picture

has

emerged, from

those

that

have been found,

of

an

attempt

to

keep

Richard

M.

Nixon

in

the

White House

at

almost

any

cost.

I

first

stumbled

into

Watergate

South

in

a most

unlikely

place,

Fayetteville,

Arkansas. I

was

liv-

ing

there

in

the

spring

of

1972 and working

with

the

Vietnam

Veterans

Against

the

War

(VVAW).

One

of

the

veterans

there,

William

W.

Lemmer,

turned

out

to

be

an

FBI

informer.

It

was

through

him

that

several

of

us began

to

learn

of

what was

being

planned

for

that

presidential

election

year.

In

late

May,

1972,

we

broke

Lemmer's

cover

and exposed him

as

an

informer.

He

immediately

suggested

that

he become a

double

agent,

spying

on

the

FBI.

To

prove

the

good

faith

of

his

offer,

he

voluntarily

agreed

to

be

interview-

ed,

on

tape,

by

two

other

Fayetteville

veterans.

The

interview

was

conducted

on

June 3 and

4,

two

weeks

before

the

discovery

of

the

Watergate

break-ins.

I

was

present

during

the

second

day's

session,

when

Lemmer

made

his

most ominous

statements.

Assertions

that

Violence

Was

Planned

for

the

1972

Political Conventions

Watergates

East

and West

reveal

an

hysterical

at-

tempt

to

seal

the

White House

off

from

the

rest

of

the

country.

But

why

the

hysteria?

Why

the

frantic

cover-up?

Much

of

the

answer

lies

in

Watergate

South.

Even

the

most

cooperative

witnesses

have

shied

away

from

this

area

of

the

total

puzzle,

probably

because

its

implications

are

so

staggering.

James

W.

McCord,

Jr.,

came

close

to

it

when

he

was

testifying

before

the

Ervin

Committee

in

May

of

1973.

He

stated

that

18

he

believed

he had

acted

in

the

nation's

best

inter-

est

because

of

plans

allegedly

being

made

by

groups,

working

with

the

Democrats,

to

violently

disrupt

the

conventions.

Therefore,

telephone

taps

of

Democra-

tic

committee members were

necessary

to

learn

of

plans

in

time

to

head

off

the

trouble

makers.

Mc-

Cord

testified

to

receiving

"almost

daily"

reports

from

the

Internal

Security

Division

of

the

Justice

Department,

some

of

which

linked

the

Democratic

Par-

ty

to

VVAW.

One

of

those

reports

came

concurrently

with

some

other

information

that that

same

group

(VVAW)

was

planning

vio-

lence

at

the

Republican

National

Convention

involving

danger

to,

threats

to

life

of

indi-

viduals.

• • •

The

Vietnam

Veterans

Against

the

War

was

one

violence-oriented

group

that

was

already

saying

in

the

spring

of

1972

that

they

were

going

to

cause

destruction

to

life

and

property

at

the

August

Republican

conven-

tion,

using

in

their

own

words,

their

own

bod-

ies

and weapons

as

the

spearhead

of

the

attack

there

--

these

are

their

exact

words, and

some

of

them

(the

Gainesville

8)

have

since

been

indicted

in

Tallahassee,

Florida,

with

addi-

tional

plans

to

damage

the

life

and

property

of

the

convention.

l

Earlier,

during

the

trial

of

the

Watergate

burg-

lars

in

January,

1973, one

of

McCord's

attorneys,

Gerald Alch,

explained

the

rationale

of

this

de-

fense.

If

one

is

under a

reasonable

apprehension

--

regardless

of

whether

that

apprehension

is

in

fact

correct

--

he

is

justified

in

breaking

a

law

to

avoid

the

greater

harm, which

in

this

case

would be

violence

directed

to

Republican

officials,

including

but

not

limited

to,

the

President.

2

The

first

question

that

needs

to

be asked

is:

did

McCord

have

cause

for

a

"reasonable

apprehen-

sion"

that

violence

was

planned

for

the

1972 conven-

tions?

The

answer

to

this

question

seems

to

be:

yes,

violence

was

planned.

The

proof

of

this

answer

is

found

in

the

tangled

web

of

a second

question:

who

was

planning

to

initiate

and

direct

the

violence?

Questionable Nature

of

Internal

Security

Division

Information

Supporting

Charges Against VVAW

The

government

alleged

that

VVAW

members

conspired

to

be

the

instigators

of

the

violence.

The

source

COMPUTERS

and

PEOPLE

for

December,

1974

f

i-

I'

1,/

d

and

veracity

of

these

allegations,

however,

is

high-

ly

questionable.

The

"New

York

Times" spoke

with

a

highly

placed

Florida

law

enforcement

official

who

participated

in

the

security

planning

and

operation

for

both

conventions

and saw

the

top-

level

intelligence

reports

(who)

said

in

an

interview

last

August (1972)

that

there

was

no

mention

in

the

intelligence

reports

of

the

plot

described

by

the

Government

in

its

indict-

ment

(of

the

Gainesville

8).

After

checking

the

intelligence

reports

for

the

security

operation

again

to

refresh

his

memory,

the

source

repeated

that

the

strongest

warning

about

any

potential

activities

of

the

V.V.A.W.

was

a

report

that

it

had bought

"be-

tween

five

and one-hundred

slingshots."

And

a check

of

the

secret

intelligence

and

op-

eration

logs

of

the

Dade

County

Public

Safety

Department,

made

available

to

the

New

York

Times,

also

shows

no

signs

of

Federal,

state

and

local

reports

of

the

alleged

plot.

3

At

least

two

undercover

officers

with

the

Dade

County

Public

Safety

Department,

Gerald

Rudoff and

Harrison

Crenshaw, had

infiltrated

VVAW

as

informers

and had

attended

VVAW

meetings

in

the

Miami

area

prior

to

the

conventions.

Had

they

heard

of

any

plans

that

could

be

construed

as

potentially

dis-

ruptive,

surely

Rudoff and Crenshaw would have

re-

ported

them. These

reports

should have been

among

the

materials

available

to

the

Florida

law

enforce-

ment

official

if

he and

his

co-workers

were

to

be

able

to

maintain

order

and

to

protect

the

lives

of

those

present

in

and around

the

conventions.

The

use

of

informants

is

based

upon

the

need

to

fulfill

such

responsibilities.

In

view

of

the

absence

of

such

reports,

it

is

reasonable

to

assume

that

there

had been

no

indications

that

VVAW,

or

any

other

movement

group,

was

planning

to

incite

violence.

Facts

tend

to

support

this

contention.

Convention Disruptions

Started

by

People

Apparently

Not

in

the

Peace Movement

VVAW

was

the

only

movement

organization

whose

members were

indicted

for

conspiring

to

violently

disrupt

either

convention.

It

was

also

the

only

group mentioned by

McCord

in

his

testimony

as

being

a

source

of

concern

to

security

personnel

at

the

conventions.

Aside from

sporadic

trashing

and a

disorganized

skirmish

the

last

night

of

the

Republican

Convention,

there

was

no

violence

at

either.

That

incident

the

final

night

involved

little

more

than

blocking

traf-

fic,

which

is

far

from

the

blowing

up

of

the

Cause-

way

to

Miami

Beach,

of

police

stations,

and

of

com-

munications

installations

that

the

Gainesville

8

were charged

with

planning.

Of

the

1,200

demonstra-

tors

arrested

that

night,

only

a few

--

some

reports

say

no

--

VVAW

members were

arrested.

Several

times

people

in

Miami

Beach

noticed

that

groups

of

younger

demonstrators

were

roused

to

start

trashing

by

agitators

who

quickly

faded from view

when

the

trouble

started.

Some

of

these

instigators

may

have been

irrational

hotheads

from

the

ranks

of

the

movement,

but

not

all

of

them

were.

A

reporter

for

the

"Miami

Herald"

saw

two

pro-Nixon

youths

physically

disrupt

a

\~omen's

anti-war

demonstration

outside

conven-

tion

hall.

One

of

the

young

men

identified

himself

as

Stephen McNellis, Minnesota

coordi-

COMPUTERS

and

PEOPLE

for

December,

1974

nator

for

VVJP

(Vietnam

Veterans

for

a

Just

Peace)

.•••

Since

then,

as

part

of

the

Watergate

disclo-

sures,

the

White House has

admitted

that

the

pro-Nixon

veterans

group

(VVJP)

was

in

fact

financed

with

GOP

campaign funds and

directed

by

Charles

Colson.4

No

Government Case

to

Support

Indictment

of

the

Gainesville 8

Sizable

contingents

of

VVAW

members were

present

at

both

conventions,

yet

the

expected

violence

did

not

occur.

It

is

conceivable,

if

the

charges

against

the

Gainesville

8 were

true,

that

VVAW

abandoned

its

plans

for

the

August

convention

after

some

of

its

members were

indicted

in

July.

However,

the

jury

found

the

eight

defendants

innocent

of

all

charges

after

hearing

a month

of

prosecution

witnesses,

only

one

defense

witness,

and

after

deliberating

for

only

four

hours.

Obviously,

the

government had

no

case

to

support

its

charges,

despite

the

fact

that

VVAW

was

heavily

infiltrated.

Two

FBI

inform-

ers,

Lemmer

and Karl Becker, were

present

during

the

meetings

from which

the

indictment

was

derived.

An-

other

FBI

informer,

Emerson

L.

Poe,

was

working

close-

ly

with

the

Florida

VVAW

coordinator,

Scott

Camil,

who

was

later

indicted

as

one

of

the

Gainesville

8.

Rudoff and Crenshaw were working

on

the

local level

in

Miami

with

Camil and Alton

C.

Foss,

another

de-

fendant.

All

but

Rudoff

testified

at

the

trial

and

still

the

government had

no

case.

The

only

assump-

tion

that

can

possibly

be drawn

is

that

there

was

no

conspiracy

by

VVAW

members

to

initiate

violence

at

the

conventions.

If

violence

was

planned,

but

it

was

not

planned

by

the

VVAW,

then

others

must have done

so.

If

other

movement groups had,

then

the

indictment

of

the

Gainesville

8 would

not

have

inhibited

them.

They might even have assumed

that

they

were

not

un-

der

heavy

surveillance

and,

therefore,

were

free

to

do

as

they

wished,

with

a

fair

degree

of

assurance

that

they

would

escape

blame

since

others

had

al-

ready

been

charged

with

what

they

planned

to

do.

The

absence

of

any

serious

outbursts

is

indicative

of

the

peaceful

intentions

of

the

demonstrators.

This

fact,

together

with

the

questionable

activities

of

members

of

such groups

as

the

pro-Nixon

VVJP,

sup-

port

the

belief

that

the

conspirators

were

not

among

the

sincere

protestors.

The

Case Against

the

Government

The

Gainesville Meeting

Adding

still

further

credence

to

this

possibility

are

two

examples

of

government

involvement

through

the

FBI.

First,

the

so

called

Gainesville

meeting,

from which most

of

the

indictment

against

the

8

was

derived,

was

set

up

by

Becker.

Donald

C.

Donner, a

veteran

from

Fayetteville,

Arkansas,

who

had

under-

taken

the

responsibility

of

arranging

for

the

meet-

ing,

got

so

far

as

sending

out a

letter

asking

for

suggestions

on

a

date

and

place

to

meet

before

Beck-

er

took

over.

As

Donner

said:

The

meeting

was

apparently

set

up

by Karl

(Becker)

•••.

Karl

told

me

that

he went

on

with

my

idea,

informed everybody,

tried

to

inform

me

and

was

unable

to

do

so.

I

shouldn't

have been

that

hard

to

find

•.••

He

said

he

went ahead

with

a

date

on

the

letter

and

there

is

not

a

date

on

the

letter.

All

in

all,

the

way

the

meeting

got

set

up

is

very

question-

able.

S

19

Second,

Lemmer

was

instructed

to

go

to

the

meeting

by

his

control,

Special

Agent Richard

J.

O'Connell,

who

made

it

known

to

me

prior

to

my

leaving

.••

that

the

Jacksonville

office,

Jacksonville,

Florida,

office

of

the

FBI, had

requested

my

presence

in

Gainesville

and I

was

told

that

it

would be

up

to