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The Guide to the CLO Style Guide
David Preston, CFA
CLO and Commercial ABS Research
(704) 410-3080
david.preston@wellsfargo.com
Geoff Horton, CFA
CLO and Commercial ABS Research
(704) 410-3352
geoffrey.horton@wellsfargo.com
Mackenzie Miller
CLO and Commercial ABS Research
(704) 410-3358
mackenzie.miller@wellsfargo.com
October 10, 2017
Please see page 32 for the rating definitions, important disclosures and
required analyst certifications. 10/10/17 at 3:00 p.m. ET
This report is available on wellsfargoresearch.com and on Bloomberg WFRE
All estimates/forecasts are as of 10/10/17 unless otherwise stated.
Contents
Introduction
Overview / C aveats
Metric Summary Table
WAS
Summary
History / C ommon Metric
WARF
Summary
History / C ommon Metric
Adj. NAV
Summary
History / C ommon Metric
Diversity Score
Summary
History / C ommon Metric
Normalized Eq. Pmt
Summary
History / C ommon Metric
Leverage
Summary
History / C ommon Metric
Min. OC Cushion
Summary
History / C ommon
Caa/CCC
Summary
History / C ommon
2nd Lien Exposure
Summary
History / C ommon
< 80 Exposure
Summary
History / C ommon
Wt. Avg Bid Depth
Summary
History / C ommon
MV NAV
Summary
History / C ommon
BB MVOC
Summary
History / C ommon
3
5
Pairings
6
7
Pairings
8
9
Pairings
10
11
Pairings
12
13
Pairings
14
15
Pairings
16
17
2
Metric Pairings
18
19
Metric Pairings
20
21
Metric Pairings
22
23
Metric Pairings
24
25
Metric Pairings
26
27
Metric Pairings
28
29
Metric Pairings
30
31
CLO Style Guide Data: Overview and Caveats
 We present The Guide to the CLO Style Guide, a companion to our monthly CLO
Manager Style Guide.
 We believe that evaluating manager performance should always be viewed within the
appropriate context. This report intends to give investors the tools needed to evaluate
the CLOs in their respective portfolios.
 We provide descriptions and strengths/weaknesses for 14 different metrics. Investors
may prioritize certain performance metrics; using these metrics, investors can
evaluate holdings using market and manager data for a specific metric.
 The data are only a snapshot (based on each deal’s most recent Intex update), yet
investors can also use the data to infer prior tactical or strategic maneuvers.
 Investors can compare relative position within various metrics. We urge investors not
to focus on the specific number; differences can be small.
3
CLO Style Guide Data: Overview and Caveats
 In addition to the individual strengths and weaknesses listed, we also note that ALL the
metrics listed are subject to the following drawbacks:
 All the data are a snapshot - as of the latest Intex update within the three months prior to the
Style Guide (with the exception of price data, leverage and equity payment data), and does not
account for the starting point or the path taken to the current point.
 Therefore, the managers’ style may have changed over time. A manager could have had a highspread portfolio in 2014 but have since rotated to lower-spread assets.
 Deals with lower OC cushions may have been issued with tighter cushion.
 Similarly, loans <80 do not account for purchase price. A manager may have purchased loans
at 50 versus purchasing the loans at new issue.
 All the metrics are averages, and may mask distortions, such as barbelling.
 All the data are subject to vintage biases – for example, 2016 deals have a very different profile
than 2013 or 2014 deals. Therefore, if a manager’s outstanding deals are overweight one vintage,
their data may be skewed.
 We believe that even given these drawbacks, the metrics, when combined, can provide a
directional look at manager style / performance.
4
CLO Metric Summary
Description
Curr. Mkt Avg.
The calculated Wt. Avg Spread of the portfolio – giving
no credit for LIBOR or for LIBOR floors
357
Straightforward - loan market's perception of
risk expressed as average coupon
Does not account for liquidity
WARF
Measures the weighted average Moody's rating of
the assets.
Lower WARF = Higher average credit rating
Higher WARF = Lower average credit rating
2802
C ommonly used, expresses average rating of
portfolio
Assumes ratings are a good proxy for risk
May not be calculated the same way across all deals
Adj. NAV
Adj. NAV is the equity NAV of the C LO, but not carrying
all loans at their current market value.
C ompensates for weaknesses of liquidation NAV
and par based NAV
Less intiutive;
WAS
Metric
67.1%
Strength
C alculated using loans trading at 85+ carried at par; 75 85 = 80; and < 75 = 65.
May not match C LO reported WAS
Does not adequately punish very low priced loans (< 50)
NAV is affected by vintage and how notes/equity are sold at new issue
Div.
Moody’s diversity score: based on how many assets,
how many industries and how big the positions are. A
par weighted calculation that indicates collateral
concentration in terms of both issuer and industry
concentration.
Norm. Eq. Pmt
The total sum of all equity payments made during
reinvestment, converted to an average quarterly
payment. Equity distribution is the quarterly equity
payment divided by the equity notional value.
4.3%
Leverage provided by C LO structure; Total initial deal
balance / equity notional balance.
10.8
Min. OC
Difference between actual OC level and OC Test limit
for the tightest OC test in the deal (not including Int.
Diversion tests – only true OC tests)
419
Caa/CCC
Intex’s fields show % of the portfolio rated Caa or
below, and the % of the portfolio rated CCC or below
2nd Lien
The percent of 2nd lien loans held by the C LO
<80
Average # of loans in the pool that have current
market prices below 80
Lev.
Weakness
74
C ommonly used measure of portfolio
concentration
Diversity score may not be correlated with credit quality
Industry classifications may not be standardized
Looks at avg equity pmt over time
Does not account for debt cost or vintage differences
Adjusts for the fact that the first equity pmts
often differ in payment period length, and
differing first pmt periods can produce high or
low first pmts
Not adjusted for refi/ reset, which can affect equity NAV & payments
Easy to calculate in Intex
Based on structural leverage, not actual asset leverage, which
technically would be more accurate
Uses equity notional balance - similar to equity
pmt data
4.3% / 3.8%
Intuitive & commonly used
Lower OC cushion are typically indicative of
losses or stressed assets
Does not account for initial structuring or OC calculation differences
Only a snapshot; does not show OC gained or lost
Intuitive & commonly used
Quick measure of lower rated assets
May be calculated differently from deal to deal Also, the data reported
in Intex may refer to concentration limits, not to Excess C aa or Excess
C C C Test levels used for OC test calculation
May not include data from deals not rated by that rating agy
1.77
The percent of 2nd lien loans held by the C LO
Not much differentiation; may not serve as a stand alone proxy for risk
2.4%
C urrent data on loan market's view of more
likely default candidates
C ommonly used metric for tail risk in C LO
portfolios
Does not account for purchase price
Proxy for liqudity of underlying loans - which
can be used as a proxy for holdings of smaller
or "lightly syndicated" loans
Does not account for quality/size of bids in the market
C ommonly used metric for equity valuation
C LO is not a mark to market vehicle; liklely is only an estimate of true
liquidation value due to transaction costs and management fees senior
to equity.
Bid Depth
Weighted average of the # of bids on the loans in the
C LO portfolio.
4.9
NAV
Equity Net Asset Value; the current liquidation valueo
of the portfolio, less outstanding note balance.
58.0%
At times, $80 may be not be the right cut-off price
NAV is affected by vintage and how notes/equity are sold at new issue
BB MVOC
The Market Value OC Ratio of the BB notes (Portfolio
liquidation value coverage of BB notes)
107.0
C ommonly used metric
5
C LO is not a mark to market vehicle
CLO Metrics: Weighted Average Spread (WAS)
Metric
Weighted Average Spread (WAS)
The calculated Wt. Avg Spread of the portfolio – giving no credit for LIBOR or for LIBOR floors
i.e. if all the loans are L+350, the metric would be 350 bps
Description/ Uses
Can infer risk appetite / risk profile of the loan pool.
All else equal, a lower spread manager should have less risky assets. if a manager has low spread – and low equity
distributions – investors may expect a higher NAV, since they are taking less risk in the portfolio.
Time
Market Stats
Median Level
Current (Sep 2017)
12M Ago (Sep 2016)
18M Ago (Mar 2016)
357
384
381
Chg. From Current
-27
-24
Higher Spread Pool
Common Metric
Pairs/Tradeoffs
Lower Spread Pool
Higher equity payments
More risky assets - higher WARF/ Caa/ CCC/ 2nd Lien
Lower market-value metrics - NAV, Adj. NAV, BB MVOC
Strengths
Metric Analysis
Calculation Example
Holding ($mm)
5
2.5
2.5
Weighted Avg. Spread
Data Source
Weaknesses
● Easy to calculate/provided in Intex
● Straightforward - loan market's perception of risk
expressed as average coupon
● Strong relationship with Equity Payments
Asset
Loan 1
Loan 2
Loan 3
Lower equity payments
Less risky assets - lower WARF/ Caa/ CCC/ 2nd Lien
Higher market-value metrics - NAV, Adj. NAV, BB MVOC
3mL + Spread
3mL + 300
3mL + 350
3mL + 425
3mL + 344
Intex
6
● Subject to vintage bias - spread levels are dependent on
loans available in the market
● Managers that have a larger share of deals issued in
2016/2017 may have lower WAS levels than managers with
a larger share of 2013/2014 deals
● May not account for liquidity / size of underlying loans
CLO Metrics: Weighted Average Spread (WAS)
4.30
The Median WAS has dropped
over the past 18 Months
Median WAS by Vintage
4.10
7%
4.10
3.90
3.90
3.70
3.70
5%
4%
3%
2%
3.50
Jan-13
Jan-14
2012
Jan-15
2014
2013
Jan-16
Jan-17
1%
320
3.50
340
360
2016
2015
380
400
420
WAS
Higher WAS Often Associated with
Higher WARF (Lower-Rated Assets)
3,200
100%
NAV and Adj. NAV
3,100
3,000
WARF
Higher WAS Often Associated with
Higher Equity Pmts.
6%
Norm. Equity Pmt.
4.30
2,900
2,800
2,700
Higher WAS Often Associated with
Lower Market Value Metrics
80%
60%
40%
20%
2,600
2,500
320
340
360
380
WAS
400
Sources: Intex, LPC Collateral
Scatter plots show manager median data from the 9/2017 Style Guide
0%
320
420
340
360
MV NAV
7
WAS
380
Adj. NAV
400
420
CLO Metrics: Weighted Average Rating Factor (WARF)
Metric
Description/ Uses
Weighted Average Rating Factor (WARF)
Measures the weighted average Moody's rating of the assets. Used to determine the risk in the pool.
Lower WARF = Higher average credit rating
Higher WARF = Lower average credit rating
Some investors may view WARF as a "filter" metric; for example, an investor prefers deals with WARF below a certain level.
For reference, a CLO with a WARF of 2,833 is roughly equivalent to a B2 rating.
Market Stats
Median Level
Time
Current (Sep 2017)
2802
12M Ago (Sep 2016)
2861
18M Ago (Mar 2016)
2801
Chg. From Current
-59
1
Higher WARF Pool
Common Metric
Pairs/Tradeoffs
Lower WARF Pool
Higher WAS and potentially higher equity payments
Lower rated assets - more exposure to Caa/ CCC/ 2nd Lien
Lower market-value metrics - NAV, Adj. NAV, BB MVOC
Lower WAS and potentially lower equity payments
Higher rated assets - Less exposure to Caa/ CCC/ 2nd Lien
Higher market-value metrics - NAV, Adj. NAV, BB MVOC
Strengths
Metric Analysis
Calculation Notes
Weaknesses
● Easy to calculate/provided in Intex
● Assumes ratings are a good proxy for risk
● May not be calculated the same way across all deals
Each obligor is assigned a Rating Factor based on Moody's
Default Probability Rating; this represents the idealized default
rate at a 10-year time horizon, multiplied by 10,000. For
example: an Obligor with a rating of Baa3 may have a Rating
Factor of 610, or a 610/10,000 (6.1%) probability that it will
default within a 10-year time horizon.
**Many CLOs use the Moody's Corporate Family Rating (CFR)
when calculating WARF. CFRs may be 1-2 notches lower than the
rating on a 1st lien sr secured loan. Also, the Moody’s rating for
WARF may be adjusted if the loan is on watch or outlook.
Data Source
Intex
8
Moody's
Rating
Aaa
Equiv.
S&P
AAA
Rating
Factor
1
Moody's Equiv. Rating
Rating
S&P
Factor
Ba1
BB+
940
Aa1
Aa2
AA+
AA
10
20
Ba2
Ba3
BB
BB-
1,350
1,766
Aa3
AA-
40
B1
B+
2,220
A1
A+
70
B2
B
2,720
A2
A
120
B3
B-
3,490
A3
Baa1
Baa2
ABBB+
BBB
180
260
360
C aa1
C aa2
C aa3
CCC+
CCC
CCC-
4,770
6,500
8,070
Baa3
BBB-
610
Ca
CC
10,000
CLO Metrics: Weighted Average Rating Factor (WARF)
The Median WARF has Increased Since 2013
3,000
3,000
2,900
2,900
420
380
2,800
2,700
2,700
2,600
2,600
340
2,500
320
2,500
Jan-14
2012
7%
2013
Jan-15
2014
Jan-16
Jan-17
360
Lower WARF Often Associated with
Lower Exposure to Loans < $80
12%
5%
8%
Caa and CCC %
10%
4%
3%
2%
1%
2,600
2,700
2,800
2,900
WARF
3,000
2,600
2,700
3,100
3,200
2,800
2,900
3,000
3,100
WARF
% Caa Exposure
% CCC Exposure
3,200
2016
2015
6%
0%
2,500
Higher WARF Often Associated with
Higher WAS (Higher-Spread Pools)
400
2,800
2,500
Jan-13
% < $80
3,100
WAS
Median WARF by Vintage
3,100
3,100
Sources: Intex, LPC Collateral
Scatter plots show manager median data from the 9/2017 Style Guide
9
3,000
Lower WARF Often Associated with
Lower Caa or CCC Exposure
6%
4%
2%
0%
2,500
3,200
2,800
2,900
WARF
2,600
2,700
CLO Metrics: Adjusted Net Asset Value (Adj. NAV)
Metric
Description/ Uses
Adjusted Net Asset Value (Adj. NAV)
Adjusted NAV is an attempt to compensate for the weaknesses of both pure market value NAV and a par-based measurement.
Adj. NAV is the equity NAV of the CLO, but not carrying all loans at their current market value.
Calculated using loans trading at 85+ carried at par; 75 - 85 carried at 80; and < 75 carried at 65 (low end of hist. recovery).
Time
Market Stats
Median Level
Current (Sep 2017)
12M Ago (Sep 2016)
18M Ago (Mar 2016)
Chg. From Current
67.1%
53.9%
41.1%
13.2%
26.0%
Higher Adj. NAV Pool
Common Metric
Pairs/Tradeoffs
Lower Adj. NAV Pool
Lower risky-asset exposure (Caa/CCC/ 2nd liens)
Higher risky-asset exposure (Caa/CCC/2nd liens)
Higher BB MVOC
Lower equity distributions
Lower BB MVOC
Higher equity distributions
Strengths
Metric Analysis
Calculation Example
Data Source
Weaknesses
● Compensates for weaknesses of pure market-value NAV
and is less volatile
● Used as a proxy for how many loans are “money good”
(Loans 85+) – so this NAV would be a proxy for ultimate
terminal value for the equity – a PO estimate – as opposed
to liquidation value.
Assets
Size
Assets
$ Holdings Mkt. Px
NAV
Adj. NAV
307,500
Loans 1-105
240,000
100.3
100.3
100.0
63,750
Loans 106-130
120,000
99.5
99.5
100.0
28,125
Loans 131-160
80,000
94.0
94.0
100.0
31,250
Loans 161-171
28,000
84.0
84.0
80.0
29,375
Loans 171-176
10,000
74.5
74.5
65.0
5,938
Loans 176-180
14,000
63.0
63.0
65.0
44,385
Par or Mkt Val
492,000
475,110
478,000
Total
510,323
NAV
21%
27%
In a loan market selloff, if the average loan price drops to $96 or $94, the loans would likely still be money good but the typical
MV NAV would look worse; Adj. NAV would hold these loans at par.
Tranche
A
B
C
D
E
F
Subord
Liabilities
Rating
AAA
AA
A
BBB
BB
B
NR
● Not easily provided in Intex
● NAV metrics affected by vintage & equity / note prices
● May not adequately punish very low priced loans (ex <$50)
● Only provides a snapshot of the loan prices on a specific
day;this applies to all market-value metrics (NAV, loans < 80,
BB MVOC).
Intex, Wells Fargo Securities
10
CLO Metrics: Adjusted Net Asset Value (Adj. NAV)
100
The Median Adj. NAV is ~60%
90
90
80
80
70
70
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
Jan-13
Jan-14
2012
Jan-15
2013
Jan-16
2014
12%
2015
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
20%
20
Jan-17
Higher Adj. NAV Often Associated with
Lower Caa or CCC Exposure
10%
Caa and CCC %
Adj. NAV by Vintage
100
2016
420
109
60%
80%
Adj. NAV
% Caa Exposure
% CCC Exposure
100%
Higher Adj. NAV Often Associated with
Lower WAS (Lower-Spread Pools)
Market Value Metrics Tend to Move Together
110
40%
400
107
WAS
BB MVOC
108
106
380
360
105
340
104
103
20%
40%
60%
Adj. NAV
80%
320
100%
NAV
Sources: Intex, LPC Collateral
Scatter plots show manager median data from the 9/2017 Style Guide
11
20%
40%
60%
Adj. NAV
80%
100%
CLO Metrics: Moody’s Diversity Score
Metric
Moody's Diversity Score
Moody’s diversity score: based on how many assets, how many industries and how big the positions are. A par weighted
calculation that indicates collateral concentration in terms of both issuer and industry concentration.
Description/ Uses
Market Stats
The Moody’s Diversity score has three primary inputs: 1) number of industries, 2) number of assets and 3) par value of each
asset. The drivers of a higher diversity score are one or more of the following: more assets, less correlated assets (widely
distributed across more industries) and more evenly distributed par amount of the assets.
Median Level
Time
Current (Sep 2017)
74
12M Ago (Sep 2016)
70
18M Ago (Mar 2016)
68
Chg. From Current
4
6
Higher Diversity Pool
Common Metric
Pairs/Tradeoffs
Lower Diversity Pool
● More diversity is generally associated with lower
idiosyncratic risk and industry risk.
● On the flip side, extremely diverse pools could be
overweight smaller names or industries relative to the
market.
Strengths
Metric Analysis
● Lower diversity could be a sign of manager conviction in a
certain name or industry.
Weaknesses
● Easy to calculate/provided in Intex
● Diversity score may not be correlated with credit quality
● Managers may increase diversity to help with matrix tests
● Industry classifications may not be standardized
Moody's diversity score is provided in Intex.
Calculation Notes
Data Source
A deal's minimum diversity limit is calculated based on the Moody's Matrix, which is a sliding scale based on WAS, WARF, loan
recovery levels and diversity.
Intex
12
CLO Metrics: Moody’s Diversity Score
3,200
75
3,100
70
70
3,000
65
65
2,900
60
60
55
55
50
50
Diversity by Vintage
The Median Div. Score for newer post-crisis
vintages has ticked up in recent months.
75
45
Jan-13
Jan-14
2012
Jan-15
2013
Jan-16
2014
Jan-17
2015
WARF
80
80
2,800
2,700
2,600
45
2,500
60
70
80
Diversity
90
100
110
90%
80%
70%
6%
MV NAV
Norm. Eq Pmt.
50
Higher Diversity Generally Unrelated to NAV
100%
7%
5%
4%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
3%
2%
40
2016
Higher Diversity Has Slightly Positive
Relationship with Norm. Eq Pmts.
8%
Higher Diversity Often Associated with
Lower WARF
10%
40
50
60
70
80
Diversity
90
100
Sources: Intex, LPC Collateral
Scatter plots show manager median data from the 9/2017 Style Guide
0%
110
13
40
50
60
70
80
Diversity
90
100
110
CLO Metrics: Normalized Equity Payment
Metric
Description/ Uses
Median Normalized Quarterly Equity Payment
Total Equity Distributions (during Reinvest. Period), converted to quarterly payments. The total sum of all equity payments
made during reinvestment, converted to an average quarterly payment. Equity distribution is the quarterly equity payment
divided by the equity notional value.
We can think of the quarterly distributions (the IO) and the NAV (the PO) as the two parts of the return – with the total return
as the distributions received to date plus the current portfolio value. If a manager has a low WAS portfolio – and low equity
distributions – then, all else equal, they should have a higher NAV, since they are taking less risk in the portfolio.
Market Stats
Chg.
Median Level
4.3%
4.8%
Time
Current (Sep 2017)
12M Ago (Sep 2016)
-0.5%
Higher Normalized Equity Payments
Lower Normalized Equity Payments
Common Metric
Pairs/Tradeoffs
● Higher WAS - and potentially higher exposure to riskier
assets (Caa/CCC/2nd lien)
● Higher leverage
● Lower market-value metrics (Eq. NAV, BB MVOC)
● Lower WAS - and potentially cleaner pools (lower
Caa/CCC/2nd lien)
● Lower leverage
● Higher market-value metrics (Eq. NAV, BB MVOC)
Metric Analysis
● Looks at average equity payments over time
● Adjusts for the fact that the first equity payments often differ
in payment period length, and differing first payment periods
can produce high or low first payments.
● Not provided in Intex
● Does not take into account the PO value of the pool
● Not adjusted for refi/ reset, which can affect equity NAV
& payments.
● Does not account for debt cost or vintage differences.
Example: 2016-Vintage Deal
Issue Date
Days Outstanding as of last payment date
Qtrs Outstanding as of last payment date
Payments / Equity Balance
Normalized Qtrly Payment/Equity Balance
Payment Dates
10/27/2016
1/27/2017
4/27/2017
7/27/2017
Total
Strengths
Calculation Notes
Data Source
Weaknesses
4/7/2016
470
5.15
29.8%
5.79%
Intex, Wells Fargo Securities
14
Payment
8,382,123
1,646,869
1,567,600
1,798,126
13,394,718
Not. Equity Bal.
44,900,000
44,900,000
44,900,000
44,900,000
CLO Metrics: Normalized Equity Payment
Higher Equity Pmts. Strongly Associated with
Higher WAS
440
3,100
420
3,000
WARF
400
WAS
Higher Eq. Pmts. Often Associated with
Higher WARF (Lower-Rated Assets)
3,200
380
2,900
2,800
360
2,700
340
2,600
320
2,500
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
2%
3%
Norm. Eq. Pmts.
Higher Eq. Pmts. Often Associated with
Lower Market Value Metrics
7%
8%
Higher Equity Pmts. Often Associated with
Higher Leverage
13.0
12.5
80%
12.0
11.5
60%
Leverage
NAV and Adj. NAV
100%
4%
5%
6%
Norm. Eq. Pmts.
11.0
40%
10.5
10.0
20%
9.5
0%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Norm. Eq. Pmts.
MV NAV
7%
9.0
8%
3%
4%
5%
Norm. Eq. Pmts.
Adj. NAV
Sources: Intex, LPC Collateral
Scatter plots show manager median data from the 9/2017 Style Guide
2%
15
6%
7%
8%
CLO Metrics: Leverage
Metric
Description/ Uses
Market Stats
Median Leverage
● Total initial deal balance / equity notional balance.
● The leverage category can be used to show how the manager is working to achieve equity returns: structural leverage vs.
leverage in the assets. When structuring a CLO, there are certain trade-offs – all else equal, a lower WARF (higher rated
assets) or higher diversity should allow for more leverage on the pool.
Median Level
10.8
10.5
10.4
Time
Current (Sep 2017)
12M Ago (Sep 2016)
18M Ago (Mar 2016)
Chg.
0.3
0.4
Higher Leverage
Common Metric
Pairs/Tradeoffs
Metric Analysis
Lower Leverage
● One manager style is to add an extra turn or two of
leverage, but with a very clean pool (below avg WAS, better
than avg WARF).
● Higher structural leverage allows more room for lower asset
leverage (potentially lower WAS or WARF)
● Higher diversity
● Higher WARF (lower rated assets)
● Lower diversity
Strengths
Weaknesses
● Easy to calculate in Intex
● Uses equity notional balance - similar to equity payment data
● Less volatile than calculating based on asset leverage which
is constantly changing
● More levered deals will show faster moves in market value
metrics (NAV, MVOC)
● Based on structural leverage, not actual asset leverage
– not based on assets/ (assets-debt), which technically
would be more accurate; based on total deal balance /
equity notional.
● We use structural leverage because a) equity pmts are
frequently quoted as a pct of notional par and b) the asset
balance is constantly changing.
Calculation Example
Tranche
A
B
C
D
E
Subord
Total
Rating
AAA
AA
A
BBB
BB
NR
Data Source
Intex, Wells Fargo Securities
Size
372,000
84,000
36,000
36,000
24,000
56,000
608,000
Leverage
Structural Leverage
16
= 608,000 / 56,000
10.9
CLO Metrics: Leverage
Higher Leverage Often Associated with
Higher Equity Pmts.
6%
95
5%
4%
85
75
65
3%
2%
55
45
9
10
11
Leverage
12
13
Higher Leverage Often Associated with
Higher WAS (Higher-Spread Pools)
420
9
10
11
Leverage
12
13
Higher Leverage Often Associated with
Lower MV NAV
100%
400
80%
MV NAV
WAS
Higher Leverage Could be Offset by
Higher Diversity
105
Diversity
Norm. Equity Pmt.
7%
380
360
60%
40%
340
20%
320
0%
9
10
11
Leverage
12
Sources: Intex, LPC Collateral
Scatter plots show manager median data from the 9/2017 Style Guide
13
17
9
10
11
Leverage
12
13
CLO Metrics: Min. OC Cushion
Metric
Description/ Uses
Median Minimum Overcollateralization Cushion (Min OC Cushion)
● Difference between actual OC level and OC Test limit for the tightest OC test in the deal (not including Int. Diversion
tests – only true OC tests). Used to show how close an equity cashflow diversion is.
● OC Test: Par-based asset/liability coverage test. Given a tranche, X, the OC ratio = Adj. Principal Value of Collateral / Sum
of prin. for tranche X and all tranches senior to X
Time
Market Stats
Common Metric
Pairs/Tradeoffs
Metric Analysis
Calculation Example
Median Level
Chg.
419
391
425
28
-5
Current (Sep 2017)
12M Ago (Sep 2016)
18M Ago (Mar 2016)
Higher Min. OC
● In theory, we would hope a manager with lower Min. OC
cushion would have recently cleaned up their pool/sold
assets at a discount at the cost of min. OC
● Included in Intex
● Provides a proxy for par building
● Haircut for excess Caa / CCC exposure, defaulted
assets and discount purchases
● Some deals may have single B OC tests (~ 20-30% of
single-B tranches have OC tests)
● Does not account for initial structuring or OC calculation
differences.
● Only a snapshot; does not show OC gained or lost
Tranche
Rating
A-1
AAA
A-2
AA
B
A
C
BBB
D
BB
Subord
NR
Total Liabilities
Size
372
84
36
36
24
56
608
OC Ratio Numerator
Agg. Principal Value of Underlying Assets
Cash & Eligible Investments
Total Assets
Data Source
Lower Min. OC
● Lower Caa / CCC / Defaulted asset exposure - which
can sometimes be haircut in the min. OC cushion
calculation
d
h
(
ll l
b l
$ )
Strengths
Weaknesses
Denominator Calc
[372]
[372 + 84]
[372 + 84 + 36]
[372 + 84 + 36 + 36]
[372 + 84 + 36 + 36 + 24]
Numer. Curr. Val
600
1.61
600
1.32
600
1.22
600
1.14
600
1.09
Trigger Cushion (bps)
1.21
1.14
1.08
1.05
1058
795
564
400
P/F
PASS
PASS
PASS
PASS
PASS
This example deal has a min. OC cushion of 400 bps.
595
5
600
Intex, Wells Fargo Securities
18
CLO Metrics: Min. OC Cushion
5.5
The median Min. OC Cushion Declined in H1 2016
but has since remained generally flat
5.0
4.5
4.5
4.0
4.0
3.5
3.5
3.0
Jan-14
3.0
Jan-15
2012
2014
Jan-17
2015
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
50
5%
5.5
Bid Depth
6.0
4%
3%
4.5
4.0
1%
3.5
150
250
350
Min. OC Cushion
450
Sources: Intex, LPC Collateral
Scatter plots show manager median data from the 9/2017 Style Guide
3.0
550
19
350
450
550
Min OC Cushion
% CCC Exposure
5.0
2%
50
250
Higher Min OC Slightly Associated with
Lower Bid Depth
6.5
6%
0%
150
% Caa Exposure
2016
Higher Min OC Often Associated with
Lower Loans < $80
7%
Loans < $80
2013
Jan-16
10%
5.5
5.0
Higher Min OC Often Associated with
Lower Caa or CCC Exposure
12%
6.0
Caa and CCC %
Median Min OC Cushion
6.0
50
150
250
350
Min. OC Cushion
450
550
CLO Metrics: Caa Exposure and CCC Exposure
Metric
Description/ Uses
Median Caa Exposure and Median CCC Exposure
● Intex’s fields show % of the portfolio rated Caa or below, and the % of the portfolio rated CCC or below
● Generally, we have found that Moody's Caa exposure in a CLO is based on facility rating, while S&P's CCC exposure is based
on issuer rating.
Time
Market Stats
Med. Caa
4.30
4.88
3.97
Current (Sep 2017)
12M Ago (Sep 2016)
18M Ago (Mar 2016)
Chg.
Med. CCC
3.80
3.93
2.45
-0.58
0.33
Higher Caa or CCC Exposure
Common Metric
Pairs/Tradeoffs
●
●
●
●
Chg.
-0.13
1.35
Lower Caa or CCC Exposure
Higher spread assets (higher WAS)
Higher WARF
Lower Min OC Cushion
Lower market-value metrics (NAV, Adj. NAV, BB MVOC)
●
●
●
●
Cleaner pools - lower WARF
Lower spread pools
Higher Min OC Cushion
Higher market-value metrics (NAV, BB MVOC)
Strengths
Weaknesses / Caveats
● Included in Intex
● Clear calculation of lower-rated assets in the portfolio
Metric Analysis
Calculation Example
Security
Company
Company
Company
Company
Company
Company
1
2
3
4
5
6-200
Prin. Bal.
3.0
2.9
2.9
2.5
3.7
479.3
Total Asset Bal
494.3
MDY Rtg
B3
B3
Caa1
Caa3
Caa1
B2
S&P Rtg
CCC
CCC+
CCCCCCCCC
BB
20
● May be calculated differently from deal to deal.
● Also, the data reported in Intex may refer to concentration
limits, not to Excess Caa or Excess CCC Test levels used for
OC test calculation; Actual Caa or CCC holdings may be
higher or lower.
● May not include data from deals not rated by that rating
agy. If Moody's did not rate the deal, we may not have Caa%
data.
Caa Exp
Total Caa or CCC
Total Assets
% Exposure
2.9
2.5
3.7
CCC Exp
3.0
2.9
2.9
2.5
3.7
9.1
494.3
1.8%
15.0
494.3
3.0%
CLO Metrics: Caa Exposure and CCC Exposure
7.0
Median Caa Exposure Increased During 2016
but has Since Flattened or Dropped
6.0
6.0
5.0
5.0
4.0
4.0
3.0
3.0
2.0
2.0
1.0
1.0
0.0
Jan-14
0.0
Jan-15
2012
Jan-16
2013
2014
Jan-17
2015
12%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
320
12%
8%
8%
Caa and CCC %
10%
Caa and CCC %
10%
6%
4%
2%
0%
50
150
360
350
450
550
Min OC Cushion
% Caa Exposure
% CCC Exposure
21
WAS
380
400
420
% CCC Exposure
Higher Caa or CCC Exposure Often Associated
with Lower MV Metrics
6%
4%
2%
0%
20%
250
Sources: Intex, LPC Collateral
Scatter plots show manager median data from the 9/2017 Style Guide
340
% Caa Exposure
2016
Higher Caa or CCC Often Associated with
Lower Min OC Cushion
12%
Higher Caa or CCC Often Associated with
Higher WAS
10%
Caa and CCC %
Med. Reported Caa Holdings
7.0
40%
60%
Adj. NAV
% Caa Exposure
80%
% CCC Exposure
100%
CLO Metrics: Second Lien Exposure
Metric
Description/ Uses
Market Stats
Median 2nd Lien Exposure
● The percent of 2nd lien loans held by the CLO
● Used as a proxy for portfolio risk
Med. Caa
Time
Current (Sep 2017)
1.77
12M Ago (Sep 2016)
2.14
18M Ago (Mar 2016)
2.64
Chg.
-0.37
-0.87
Higher 2nd Lien Exposure
Common Metric
Pairs/Tradeoffs
Lower 2nd Lien Exposure
● In general, we would expect higher 2nd liens to be
associated with:
● Higher spread assets (higher WAS)
● Higher WARF
● Lower market-value metrics (NAV, Adj. NAV, BB MVOC)
● Cleaner pools - lower WARF
● Lower spread pools
● Higher market-value metrics (NAV, BB MVOC)
However, some managers appear to employ a barbell
approach, where higher second lien exposure doesn't
necessarily equate to a riskier portfolio
Strengths
Metric Analysis
Weaknesses / Caveats
● Included in Intex
● Clear calculation of second-lien assets in portfolio
Provided in Intex as a percent of the deal's asset balance
Calculation Example
Data Source
Intex, Wells Fargo Securities
22
● Does not stand alone as a proxy for risk - managers may
employ a barbell approach in choosing assets
● Deals with high 2nd lien holdings may see a disconnect
between Caa and CCC % (facility rating vs. issuer rating)
CLO Metrics: Second Lien Exposure
Second Lien Exposure has declined since Jan
2015 but has recently ticked up
4.0
3.0
3.0
2.0
2.0
Higher 2nd Liens Generally Unrelated to
WAS Level
420
400
WAS
Med. 2nd Lien Exposure
4.0
380
360
1.0
1.0
340
0.0
Jan-14
Jan-15
2012
2013
Jan-16
2014
Jan-17
2015
0.0
320
Higher 2nd Lien managers tend to have more
liquid portfolios (higher bid depth)
6.5
2.0
3.0
2nd Liens (% Exp)
4.0
5.0
7%
Norm. Eq Pmt.
Bid Depth
1.0
Higher 2nd Liens Have Slightly Positive
Relationship with Norm. Eq Pmts.
8%
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
-
2016
6%
5%
4%
3%
-
1.0
2.0
3.0
2nd Liens (% Exp)
4.0
Sources: Intex, LPC Collateral
Scatter plots show manager median data from the 9/2017 Style Guide
2%
5.0
23
-
1.0
2.0
3.0
2nd Liens (% Exp)
4.0
5.0
CLO Metrics: < $80 Exposure
Metric
Description/ Uses
Market Stats
Median Exposure to Loans Trading < $80
● Average # of loans in the pool that have current market prices below 80 – the traditional cut-off for a ‘distressed loan’ in the
loan market.
● Used to illustrate tail risk or as a proxy for near term (12-24 month) default risk in the pool.
● If average recoveries (measured by post default trading price) are ~65, then a loan trading below 80 is typically trading as if
the market thinks it will default.
Time
Current (Sep 2017)
12M Ago (Sep 2016)
18M Ago (Mar 2016)
Loans < $80
Chg.
2.4%
4.5%
9.5%
-2.1%
-7.1%
Higher Loans < $80
Common Metric
Pairs/Tradeoffs
●
●
●
●
Lower Loans < $80
Higher spread assets (higher WAS)
Higher WARF
Lower Min OC Cushion
Lower market-value metrics (NAV, Adj. NAV, BB MVOC)
Strengths
Metric Analysis
Provided in LPC Collateral's Database by Deal
Data Source
LPC Collateral
Cleaner pools - lower WARF
Lower spread pools
Higher Min OC Cushion
Higher market-value metrics (NAV, Adj. NAV, BB MVOC)
Weaknesses / Caveats
● Trading prices can be a good proxy for whether market
believes a loan will default
● Commonly used metric for tail risk in CLO portfolios
Calculation Example
●
●
●
●
24
● Does not account for purchase price. Manager could have
bought a loan at $0.25 which now trades at $0.79 and it
would still be included in our metric.
● Also, at various points, <80 is arguably too high or too low
a cut-off for tail risk.
● Based on a snapshot of the loan prices on the day we
determine the underlying portfolio market value - this applies
to all market-value metrics (NAV, loans < 80, BB MVOC).
CLO Metrics: < $80 Exposure
15%
15%
Loans below $80 have
ticked up in recent months
12%
9%
9%
6%
6%
3%
6%
5%
4%
3%
3%
0%
Jan-14
Jan-15
2012
2013
Jan-16
2014
Jan-17
2015
0%
2%
90%
1%
2%
3%
4%
Loans < $80
5%
6%
7%
Higher Loans < $80 Have Negative Relationship
with Min OC Cushion
550
500
450
70%
400
Min OC Cushion
80%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
350
300
250
200
150
100
10%
0%
0%
2016
Higher Loans < $80 Associated with
Lower MV Metrics
100%
MV NAV
7%
Norm. Eq Pmt.
Med. Pct. of Loans < 80
12%
Higher Loans < $80 Have Positive Relationship
with Norm. Eq Pmts.
8%
50
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
Loans < $80
5%
Sources: Intex, LPC Collateral
Scatter plots show manager median data from the 9/2017 Style Guide
6%
7%
25
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
Loans < $80
5%
6%
7%
CLO Metrics: Wtd. Avg. Bid Depth
Metric
Description/ Uses
Market Stats
Median Weighted Average Bid Depth
● Average of the # of bids on the loans in the CLO portfolio used in our portfolio pricing, per our CLO asset pricing tool
● Avg. Bid depth is an attempt to show the level of liquidity on assets in underlying CLO portfolios. Used to show which
managers are taking liquidity risk – typically, we would think of loans with fewer bids as smaller loans – ‘upper middle market’
or ‘lightly syndicated loans.’
● Because a CLO is not a mark to market vehicle, and the CLO does not have forced liquidation provisions, we believe liquidity
risk within a CLO portfolio is acceptable – however, we also want CLO investors to understand how certain managers may be
achieving higher spread pools or driving a favorable WAS/WARF ratio.
Time
Current (Sep 2017)
12M Ago (Sep 2016)
Bid Depth
4.90
4.42
Chg.
0.48
Higher Bid Depth
Common Metric
Pairs/Tradeoffs
Lower Bid Depth
● More volatile market-value metrics, due to increased
liquidity
● Lower spread pools
● Typically, a lower bid depth corresponds with higher spread
portfolios.
● More stable market-value metrics, due to less liquidity—but
may face larger jumps in prices in a stress period.
Strengths
Metric Analysis
Calculation Example
Data Source
Weaknesses / Caveats
● Can help investors understand how a CLO manager may
be achieving higher spread pools or driving a favorable
WAS/WARF ratio.
Example Deal: Assets
$ Holdings
Loans
161,676
Loans
136,292
Loans
103,743
Loans
135,003
Loans
125,990
Loans
63,643
Loans
64,052
Total
790,399
Wtd. Avg. Bid Depth
Assets
1-70
71-144
145-193
194-257
258-304
305-341
341-363
Bid Depth
1
2
3
5
7
9
10
4.45
LPC Collateral
26
● Does not account for quality/size of bids in the market.
CLO Metrics: Wtd. Avg. Bid Depth
Lower Bid Depth Often Associated with
Higher WAS (Higher-Spread Pools)
420
Lower Bid Depth Often Associated with
Higher Eq. Pmts.
8%
Normalized Eq. Pmt
7%
WAS
400
380
360
4%
2%
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
Bid Depth
5.5
6.0
6.5
Lower Bid Depth Often Associated with
Higher Caa Exposure
12%
4.0
4.5
5.0
Bid Depth
5.5
6.0
6.5
Lower Bid Depth Often Associated with
Lower MV NAVs
90%
80%
70%
MV NAV
8%
6%
4%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
2%
0%
3.5
100%
10%
Caa %
5%
3%
340
320
6%
10%
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
Bid Depth
5.5
6.0
Sources: Intex, LPC Collateral
Scatter plots show manager median data from the 9/2017 Style Guide
0%
6.5
27
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
Bid Depth
5.5
6.0
6.5
CLO Metrics: MV NAV
Metric
Description/ Uses
Market Stats
Common Metric
Pairs/Tradeoffs
Metric Analysis
Market Value NAV
The equity market value NAV of the CLO equity tranche (expressed as a pct of equity notional balance). Can be thought of as
the liquidation value of the CLO – the value to the equity if the manager sold all the assets and paid off the notes. Calculated
by taking the market value of the portfolio minus the face value of all debt tranches outstanding, divided by equity notional.
May not account for incentive mgmt. fees or deferred fees.
Time
Median Level
Current (Sep 2017)
58.0%
12M Ago (Sep 2016)
42.3%
18M Ago (Mar 2016)
-0.8%
15.7%
58.8%
Higher NAV Pool
Lower NAV Pool
Lower risky-asset exposure (Caa/CCC/ 2nd liens)
Lower loans < $80 exposure
Higher risky-asset exposure (Caa/CCC/2nd liens)
Higher loans < $80 exposure
Strengths
● Provides proxy for liquidation value of the CLO - if
we sold the assets today and paid off all the debts
● Can be used to proxy total returns to equity Equitiy NAV (PO) + Cashflows paid to date
● Commonly used in pricing and trading secondary
equity.
Weaknesses
● CLO is not a mark to market vehicle, and the CLO does not have
forced liquidation provisions. A CLO provides the equity investor
with term leverage with no mark to market pressure, and investors
can’t force a liquidation prior to the call – so measuring daily loan
price movements may not always make sense. For example – if loan
outflows lead to loan market selling, all loans may fall in price. If half
the pool drops from 99 to 94, the NAV drops 25 points – but we
wouldn’t think the actual credit quality has actually changed.
● A snapshot of the loan prices on the day we determine the
underlying portfolio market value
● Not adjusted for refi/ reset, which can affect NAV and eq. pmts.
● Does not account for initial structuring differences.
Calculation Example
Total
Data Source
Chg.
Tranche
A
B
C
D
E
Subord
Liabilities
Rating
AAA
AA
A
BBB
BB
NR
Size
314,100
60,900
36,000
25,700
23,300
52,500
512,500
Markit, Wells Fargo Securities
28
Assets
Assets
$ Holdings Mkt. Px
Loans 1-105
240,000
100.3
Loans 106-130
120,000
99.5
Loans 131-160
86,000
98.0
Loans 161-171
28,000
87.0
Loans 171-180
20,000
70.0
Par or Mkt Val
494,000
482,760
NAV
43%
CLO Metrics: MV NAV
MV NAV has moved sideways in 2017 due to
limited loan market volatility
420
80
80
400
60
60
40
40
20
20
Median Equity NAV
-20
Jan-14 Jul-14
2012
Jan-15 Jul-15
2013
Jan-16
2014
Jul-16
Jan-17
2015
340
-20
Jul-17
2016
320
40%
60%
MV NAV
80%
100%
Market Value Metrics Tend to Move Together
110
109
6%
108
5%
BB MVOC
Norm. Eq. Pmts.
20%
Higher MV NAV (PO) Often Associated with
Lower Equity Pmts. (IO)
7%
4%
3%
107
106
105
2%
1%
20%
380
360
0
0
8%
WAS
100
100
Higher MV NAV Often Associated with
Lower WAS (Lower-Spread Pools)
104
40%
60%
MV NAV
80%
Sources: Intex, LPC Collateral
Scatter plots show manager median data from the 9/2017 Style Guide
103
20%
100%
40%
60%
Adj. NAV
29
80%
NAV
100%
CLO Metrics: BB MVOC
Metric
Description/ Uses
Market Stats
Common Metric
Pairs/Tradeoffs
BB MVOC
● The Market Value OC Ratio of the BB notes. For example, if we liquidated the pool today, how covered are BB notes. OC ratio
uses the most recent market value of the collateral instead of the par / haircut value.
● Class B MVOC = market value of collateral / (Par value class A notes + Par value class B notes outstanding).
Time
Median Level
Current (Sep 2017)
107.0
12M Ago (Sep 2016)
105.7
18M Ago (Mar 2016)
101.1
Chg.
1.3
5.9
Higher BB MVOC Pool
Lower BB MVOC Pool
Lower risky-asset exposure (Caa/CCC/ 2nd liens)
Lower loans < $80 exposure
Strengths
Weaknesses
● Provides proxy for market value coverage of the BB
tranche
● Commonly used in pricing and trading secondary
tranches
● Data is based on a snapshot of the loan prices on the day we
determine the underlying portfolio market value
● Does not account for initial structuring differences. Deals may have
higher or lower OC cushion at issuance due to trade-offs in the
structuring process.
● CLO is not a mark to market vehicle, and the CLO does not have
forced liquidation provisions. A CLO provides the equity investor with
term leverage with no mark to market pressure, and investors can’t
force a liquidation prior to the call – so measuring daily loan price
movements may not always make sense.
Liabilities
Tranche
Rating
A
AAA
B
AA
C
A
D
BBB
E
BB
Subord
NR
Par Value of Liabilities
Market Value of Assets
OC Calculations
OC Coverage
OC Ratio
= 490 / [314]
156.0
= 490 / [314+61]
130.7
= 490 / [314+61+36]
119.2
= 490 / [314+61+36+26]
112.2
= 490 / [314+61+36+26+23]
106.5
Metric Analysis
Calculation Example
Data Source
Higher risky-asset exposure (Caa/CCC/2nd liens)
Higher loans < $80 exposure
Size
314
61
36
26
23
53
513
490
Markit, Wells Fargo Securities
30
The BB tranche is 1.06x covered on a market value basis
CLO Metrics: BB MVOC
110
110
108
108
106
106
104
104
102
102
100
100
98
Jan-12
2012
8%
400
Jan-14
2013
Jan-15
Jan-16
2014
340
320
Jan-17
2015
Higher MV Metrics (like BB MVOC) Often
Associated with Lower Equity Pmts. (IO)
104
105
106
BB MVOC
107
108
109
Market Value Metrics Tend to Move Together
110
109
6%
BB MVOC
108
5%
4%
107
106
3%
105
2%
104
1%
103
103
2016
7%
Norm. Eq. Pmts.
380
360
98
Jan-13
Higher BB MVOC Often Associated with
Lower WAS (Lower-Spread Pools)
420
WAS
At the trough of 2016 volatility, the average BB
tranche was not covered on a MV basis
104
105
106
BB MVOC
107
108
Sources: Intex, LPC Collateral
Scatter plots show manager median data from the 9/2017 Style Guide
103
20%
109
40%
60%
Adj. NAV
31
80%
NAV
100%
Disclosure Appendix
Additional information is available on request.
Analyst’s Certification
The research analyst(s) principally responsible for the report certifies to the following: all views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analysts’ personal
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Disclosure Appendix
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33
Disclosure Appendix
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This report was prepared by Wells Fargo Securities, LLC.
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